If you are anything like me, you have most likely read a lot of books about thoroughbred racing and how to play them. The following is a list of books I currently have sitting on my book shelf.
The Psychology of Thoroughbred Handicapping--Thomas Wilson
Money Secrets At The Racetrack--Barry Meadows
The Four Quarters of Horse Invcsting--Steve Fierro
Extreme Pace Handicapping; If You Doodle it They Will Come--Randy Giles
Six Secrets of Successful Bettors--Frank R. Scatoni and Peter T. Forntale
Bet With the Best 2; Longshots--Compilation
Exotic Betting--Steven Crist
Speed to Spare--Joe Cardello
Trainer Angles--Dean Keppler
The Winning Horseplayer--Andrew Beyer
Expert Handicapping; Winning Insights Into Betting Thoroughbreds--Dave Litfin
Beyer on Speed--Andrew Beyer
The Best of Thoroughbred Handicapping--Edited by James Quinn
Handicapping 101--Brad Free
Value Handicapping--Mark Cramer
Handicapping the Wall Street Way--Mark E. Ripple
The Handicapper's Condition Book--James Quinn
Books I know I have read, but for some reason are missing from my shelf
Picking Winners--Andrew Beyer
Betting Thoroughbreds: A Professional's Guide for The Horseplayer--Steve Davidowitz
Nearly every book up there has had something useful to offer, but the ones highlighted in red are the ones I feel I got the most value for. Picking Winners was the first book I ever bought. Way back in the 80's before Speed Figures were widely known about. That book certainly helped this fledgling horseplayer get an edge over the crowd at the Birmingham Turf Club, before they went to the dogs. It took a lot of effort to keep figures living in Atlanta and before the time of PC's. Everything was done by hand with a calculator and kept up to date in a 3-ring binder. This also required a crosstown bus ride twice a week to the only bookstore in Atlanta that carried the DRF so I could have the results charts from Birmingham. Oh the sacrifices we make for our passions.
Two books I've recently received from Amazon (Somebody stop me!) are Winning Moves: How To Win At Horse Racing--Prentice Mannetter and The Tuttle Way: Applied Methodologies on "How To" Interpret the Racing Form From A Winning Horseplayer--Joseph J. Tuttle.
Once I get around to reading them, I'll let you know what I think.
Now its off to Calder Race Course for another beautiful day of racing.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Friday, December 26, 2008
Father-Son Day
My son is home for winter break from the University of Miami, and I have somehow managed to con him into spending time with me at Calder today. He's not a racing fan. I think the pace of the game is too slow for today's generation. I think simulcasting helps liven the pace up with more races to play so long as you don't go over board. However, the problem is the occassional race goer who is not really into racing is probably not participating in the simulcast pools except for, perhaps, the big races like the Ky. Derby and such.
Anyhow, I think there are some playable races at CRC and Fairgrounds today and they will be the focus of my attention. I'll give my son $20.00 and all the advice he asks for and see if I can't school him for a greater appreciation of the sport.
Public handicapper.com is having there weekly contest today at Santa Anita's opener rather than the usual Saturday. The following are my picks for today's contest races.
6th Race the California Breeder's Championship for 2yo's bred in California
#6 Lordgivemealift
3-1
9-2
#2 Feisty Suances
7-2
5-1
#4 Unbridled Roman
9-2
7-1
#6 2yo races go to the swiftest and this need to lead type will either wire the field or collapse in a steaming heap of horse manure #2 has won all 3 efforts and gets better everytime #4 won debut race at near par speed and figures to be faster if can handle the stepped up competition #11 was favored to beat 3 other entrants in this race and gets a chance for redemption here.
The G3 Sir Beaufort Stakes
#12 Gio Ponti
2-1
3-1
#2 Sky Cape
9-2
7-1
#1 Liberian Freighter
5-1
8-1
#9 El Gato Malo
6-1
9-1
#12 Most accomplished on Turf of field, but the outside post could hurt #2 has won before coming off a layoff including out running the speedy #1 who has speed early but will probably be pressured by others #9 Tough spot for first on grass, but too good to ignore; however, remember Macho Again from last week. I don't know what that horse was doing on the turf, but he certainly didn't run the race of a well intended horse and the same may be true of El Gato Malo.
The Grade 1 Malibu Stakes
#7 Georgie Boy
3-1
9-2
#1 Into Mischief
7-2
5-1
#2 Colonel John
4-1
6-1
#3 Bob Black Jack
6-1
9-1
#7 A proven G1 winner at the distance and on this track with the highest fig for the distance #1 Another proven G1 winner at the distance who has never finished worst than 2nd #2 ML 2nd choice with loads of ability but has only raced once at this distance in breaking his maiden. #3 Another sprint specialist, but probably a notch below the other 3
MC25000 for 3yo and up
#5 Squire Trelawny
#13 Six Pack Man
#8 Mystification
I don't know why they chose this race for the contest. I don't play these races and didn't want to waste time handicapping it so I hijacked the picks from the leading editor's picks for contest purposes. I will personally pass this race.
Oh and FYI, Marty Wolfson has entered Golden Spikes in the Malibu. I personally don't think that Golden Spikes is a G1 calibur horse, but Marty has a horse entered at Calder today, so I will be looking to see if he makes an appearance in the paddock. If Marty isn't here I am going to guess that he is in Santa Anita. Remember, he is afraid of flying and only travels when extremely confident. If he is not here I'll be watching TVG closely for a shot of him at Santa Anita. A small wager on a long horse never hurt anyone.
Anyhow, I think there are some playable races at CRC and Fairgrounds today and they will be the focus of my attention. I'll give my son $20.00 and all the advice he asks for and see if I can't school him for a greater appreciation of the sport.
Public handicapper.com is having there weekly contest today at Santa Anita's opener rather than the usual Saturday. The following are my picks for today's contest races.
6th Race the California Breeder's Championship for 2yo's bred in California
#6 Lordgivemealift
3-1
9-2
#2 Feisty Suances
7-2
5-1
#4 Unbridled Roman
9-2
7-1
#6 2yo races go to the swiftest and this need to lead type will either wire the field or collapse in a steaming heap of horse manure #2 has won all 3 efforts and gets better everytime #4 won debut race at near par speed and figures to be faster if can handle the stepped up competition #11 was favored to beat 3 other entrants in this race and gets a chance for redemption here.
The G3 Sir Beaufort Stakes
#12 Gio Ponti
2-1
3-1
#2 Sky Cape
9-2
7-1
#1 Liberian Freighter
5-1
8-1
#9 El Gato Malo
6-1
9-1
#12 Most accomplished on Turf of field, but the outside post could hurt #2 has won before coming off a layoff including out running the speedy #1 who has speed early but will probably be pressured by others #9 Tough spot for first on grass, but too good to ignore; however, remember Macho Again from last week. I don't know what that horse was doing on the turf, but he certainly didn't run the race of a well intended horse and the same may be true of El Gato Malo.
The Grade 1 Malibu Stakes
#7 Georgie Boy
3-1
9-2
#1 Into Mischief
7-2
5-1
#2 Colonel John
4-1
6-1
#3 Bob Black Jack
6-1
9-1
#7 A proven G1 winner at the distance and on this track with the highest fig for the distance #1 Another proven G1 winner at the distance who has never finished worst than 2nd #2 ML 2nd choice with loads of ability but has only raced once at this distance in breaking his maiden. #3 Another sprint specialist, but probably a notch below the other 3
MC25000 for 3yo and up
#5 Squire Trelawny
#13 Six Pack Man
#8 Mystification
I don't know why they chose this race for the contest. I don't play these races and didn't want to waste time handicapping it so I hijacked the picks from the leading editor's picks for contest purposes. I will personally pass this race.
Oh and FYI, Marty Wolfson has entered Golden Spikes in the Malibu. I personally don't think that Golden Spikes is a G1 calibur horse, but Marty has a horse entered at Calder today, so I will be looking to see if he makes an appearance in the paddock. If Marty isn't here I am going to guess that he is in Santa Anita. Remember, he is afraid of flying and only travels when extremely confident. If he is not here I'll be watching TVG closely for a shot of him at Santa Anita. A small wager on a long horse never hurt anyone.
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Public Handicapper Picks
Not much time as I have holiday duties to attend to.
Just enough to say that yours truly was humbled yesterday. Not even my good ol' standby, The Fairgrounds could save me yesterday. That being said, use these selections at your own risk. Remember the first column are what I consider to be fair odds and the second is suggested wager odds.
First the Fairgrounds Races the Woodchopper Stakes and the Sugarbowl Stakes.
#6 My Boy Charlie
3-1
9-2
#8 Macho Again
7-2
5-1
#2 Jimmy Simms
4-1
6-1
#1 Evade
6-1
9-1
#6 Euro invader is a group 1 winner in France and is one for one on the FG turf and appears to be peaking at the right time here. #8 is the North American class of this race, but has never run in anger over the sod; however workout line shows some efforts at Saratoga in Aug so can't be ignored. #2 is an improving 3yo who just missed in a G3 effort last out. The slightly shorter distance may make the difference. #1 any time Leparoux is on the grass his mount deserves respect and the horse does seem to be getting better, but this will be his first outing against some really strong competitors take only at long odds.
#4 Beer Pong
3-1
9-2
#8 Screen Your Friend
7-2
5-1
#7 Big Push
9-2
7-1
#9 Ask Joe
5-1
8-1
#4 Has preferred PP with Hi% Rider and Trainer and gets slight nod in a highly contentious race. #8 G3 winner back in July should move forward of last effort. #7 Held lead all the way to the end in Restricted Fl Bred race at Calder shortens up a furlong here #9 Has not run a bad race in 3 outings and may be as good as any here.
The Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate Fields
#3 Cut The Check
3-1
9-2
#4 Adriatic Moon
7-2
5-1
#5 Merus Miami
9-2
7-1
#7 Run It
5-1
8-1
#3 Speedster strectching out is classic play gets the first choice in another contentious race. #4 Gets leading rider R Baze, so you can probably count on this one being severely underlaid, but just in case. #5 I like the way this one came from off the pace in debut, unusual for a 2 yo, and the ability to be rated may be useful again. Also eligible to improve speed in 2nd effort. #7 2 time winner of Alw starter races could be a tough customer.
And finally the Cash Call Futurity from Hollywood
#11 Mr. Rod
3-1
9-2
#5 Pioneerof the Nile
7-2
5-1
#10 Bittel Road
9-2
7-1
#4 Axel Foley
6-1
9-1
#11 has the speed on a speed favoring track and is going turf to fake dirt to boot. #5 comes off a decent effort at the Breeder's cup and should be charging late. #10 Just missed to the top choice last out and would not be a shocker. #4 probably would be a minor shocker, but the British shipper does get first lasix and will likely be over looked by the crowd. Worth a flyer at a big price.
That's it for today. Now out to fight the holiday mob. Hopefully I'll make it back in time to check out my luck on TVG.
Results,
Posted after ninth race at FG: So far bad day for PH standings but good day for bankroll.
No play in the 8th race where the 3rd pick Jimmy Simms managed to avoid the chaos coming down the stretch and prevail.
I knew the 9th was wide open, my favorite, Beer Pong, was a scratch, so the chosen winner, by default was Screen Your Friend. The 7 horse, Big Push was overbet but both Screen Your Friend and my now 3rd choice Ask Joe went off at double figure odds. I split the bet between them. Something you can profitably do according to Steve Fierro with high odds contenders. Screen Your Friend was no where to be found. Ask Joe overcame a very game Big Push and Valid Stripes to prevail by a nose paying $24.80. I hope you had it.
The Cash Call futurity was won by Pioneerof the Nile who became my default choice when Mr. Rob was scratched. Pioneerof the Nile showed a lot of heart in holding off I Want Revenge down the stretch to give me a winner in the PH contest. However, my huckleberry for the dough in this race was Bittel Road. Bittel Road looked like he might make a move around the 3/4 pole but then flattened out and was never a real factor.
The Gold Rush Futurity at Golden Gate was another terrific race. The PH choice Cut the Check tracked the pace for most of the race but lacked energy to close the deal in the stretch. My money wound up on Adriatic Moon who was looking good for a while in the stretch, but Merus Miami took over convincingly at the end to win by a length. And you thought I just had him as a contender as a hunch bet because of the name.
So in the end, one chalky win out of 4 picks for the PH contest and one 11-1 win bet out of 3 for real money. I'll take the 11-1 win bet over the former any day.
Just enough to say that yours truly was humbled yesterday. Not even my good ol' standby, The Fairgrounds could save me yesterday. That being said, use these selections at your own risk. Remember the first column are what I consider to be fair odds and the second is suggested wager odds.
First the Fairgrounds Races the Woodchopper Stakes and the Sugarbowl Stakes.
#6 My Boy Charlie
3-1
9-2
#8 Macho Again
7-2
5-1
#2 Jimmy Simms
4-1
6-1
#1 Evade
6-1
9-1
#6 Euro invader is a group 1 winner in France and is one for one on the FG turf and appears to be peaking at the right time here. #8 is the North American class of this race, but has never run in anger over the sod; however workout line shows some efforts at Saratoga in Aug so can't be ignored. #2 is an improving 3yo who just missed in a G3 effort last out. The slightly shorter distance may make the difference. #1 any time Leparoux is on the grass his mount deserves respect and the horse does seem to be getting better, but this will be his first outing against some really strong competitors take only at long odds.
#4 Beer Pong
3-1
9-2
#8 Screen Your Friend
7-2
5-1
#7 Big Push
9-2
7-1
#9 Ask Joe
5-1
8-1
#4 Has preferred PP with Hi% Rider and Trainer and gets slight nod in a highly contentious race. #8 G3 winner back in July should move forward of last effort. #7 Held lead all the way to the end in Restricted Fl Bred race at Calder shortens up a furlong here #9 Has not run a bad race in 3 outings and may be as good as any here.
The Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate Fields
#3 Cut The Check
3-1
9-2
#4 Adriatic Moon
7-2
5-1
#5 Merus Miami
9-2
7-1
#7 Run It
5-1
8-1
#3 Speedster strectching out is classic play gets the first choice in another contentious race. #4 Gets leading rider R Baze, so you can probably count on this one being severely underlaid, but just in case. #5 I like the way this one came from off the pace in debut, unusual for a 2 yo, and the ability to be rated may be useful again. Also eligible to improve speed in 2nd effort. #7 2 time winner of Alw starter races could be a tough customer.
And finally the Cash Call Futurity from Hollywood
#11 Mr. Rod
3-1
9-2
#5 Pioneerof the Nile
7-2
5-1
#10 Bittel Road
9-2
7-1
#4 Axel Foley
6-1
9-1
#11 has the speed on a speed favoring track and is going turf to fake dirt to boot. #5 comes off a decent effort at the Breeder's cup and should be charging late. #10 Just missed to the top choice last out and would not be a shocker. #4 probably would be a minor shocker, but the British shipper does get first lasix and will likely be over looked by the crowd. Worth a flyer at a big price.
That's it for today. Now out to fight the holiday mob. Hopefully I'll make it back in time to check out my luck on TVG.
Results,
Posted after ninth race at FG: So far bad day for PH standings but good day for bankroll.
No play in the 8th race where the 3rd pick Jimmy Simms managed to avoid the chaos coming down the stretch and prevail.
I knew the 9th was wide open, my favorite, Beer Pong, was a scratch, so the chosen winner, by default was Screen Your Friend. The 7 horse, Big Push was overbet but both Screen Your Friend and my now 3rd choice Ask Joe went off at double figure odds. I split the bet between them. Something you can profitably do according to Steve Fierro with high odds contenders. Screen Your Friend was no where to be found. Ask Joe overcame a very game Big Push and Valid Stripes to prevail by a nose paying $24.80. I hope you had it.
The Cash Call futurity was won by Pioneerof the Nile who became my default choice when Mr. Rob was scratched. Pioneerof the Nile showed a lot of heart in holding off I Want Revenge down the stretch to give me a winner in the PH contest. However, my huckleberry for the dough in this race was Bittel Road. Bittel Road looked like he might make a move around the 3/4 pole but then flattened out and was never a real factor.
The Gold Rush Futurity at Golden Gate was another terrific race. The PH choice Cut the Check tracked the pace for most of the race but lacked energy to close the deal in the stretch. My money wound up on Adriatic Moon who was looking good for a while in the stretch, but Merus Miami took over convincingly at the end to win by a length. And you thought I just had him as a contender as a hunch bet because of the name.
So in the end, one chalky win out of 4 picks for the PH contest and one 11-1 win bet out of 3 for real money. I'll take the 11-1 win bet over the former any day.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Quality Time
Your's truly took the weekend off from racing to spend some quality time at the beach with the Mrs. this past weekend. Well, not entirely as I did find time to pick two of four winners in the Publichandicappers.com Winter of our Discontent contest.
Now some of you Northern types may laugh at this, but the weather really did not cooperate for a weekend at the beach. The sky was mostly overcast and the temperature was a chilly low 70 something due to the constant gale force wind coming off of the cool ocean water.
Living on the edge of the Everglades does offer some exciting encounters with wild-life now and then. Maybe some day I will tell you of my close encounter with a rather pissed-off gator while fishing. The sub-tropical climate is also hospitable to a wide variety of imported species such as this 5-foot Iguana I met while on my lunch break at work yesterday. Today he was impressively showing off his brilliant orange throat, but my hands were full and I was running late and couldn't snap a picture.
The reflection you see in the window is me trying ever so carefully to get close enough to get a good picture without scaring the critter away. While they look quite fierce, they are really quite shy and would rather run than fight. On cooler winter days, it is really neat to see them sunning themselves next to the canal as I drive home on the turnpike.
Ok enough of this. I have Friday off and I'm going to the races. I have Calder, the Fairgrounds (where I've been doing very well so far this season), and Golden Gate to dig into. If your good, maybe I'll post my picks for this week's Winter of Discontent contest
Monday, December 8, 2008
Wha' Happened?
As I'm sure you know by now, the trainer pattern I was so excited about did not pan out on Saturday. I received a private e-mail regarding the post gist of which was to tell me there may be a flaw in my reasoning. I asked the mailer for permission to publish the e-mail without revealing the writer's name and my response, but so far I have had no answer to my request. Now not that I am so impatient that I can't wait for permission, but since the race was already two days ago I thought I better go with it without permission before the topic loses it's currency.
First for the race itself. Silver Tree settled into a stalking position behind the long shot pacesetter and so the race went until they hit the stretch when Spice Route and Soldier's Dancer kicked into gear and gave a great duel down the stretch with Spice Route prevailing by a head bob. Silver Tree faded to 6th.
The gist of the writer's letter was to make me aware that Edgar Prado was riding in Japan this past weekend and was not available for the mount at Calder. It is true that I was not aware of Edgar's whereabout's, so perhaps there is a point that the naming of Desormeaux was not part of some master-plan on Bill Mott's part but simply an act of necessity and coincidence as Prado was not going to be available for the mount. Point well taken.
What still remained however was the pattern of running Silver Tree in a non-graded stakes conditioner prior to winning a graded stakes race. All things considered, I still don't think it was a bad play though I did like Spice Route's chances a lot and am quite familiar with Soldier's Dancer's attributes as well.
Now, without further adieu, my response.
First thanks for reading my posts and sending me a note. I love to know that others are actually reading what I put up. I wasn't aware that Edgar was in Japan, but it wouldn't have mattered to my analysis as I was just trying to point out a pattern that I observed that might be meaningful that others may not have observed.
In this case Silver Tree went off at 5 to 1 which was probably about right considering the competition. Silver Tree tracked the pacesetter and was in contention most of the race, except for the part that mattered most and finished 6th. Spice Route, another horse I really liked and probably would have played if not for the pattern observation with Silver Tree, barely nosed out the favorite Soldier's Dancer.
However, this is what I love most about racing. Everything is out there in front of you to be seen and, in reality, there are very few secrets. In my younger days I was an expert chess player and spent much of my time playing tournaments, and I see a lot of analogies to racing as every race or series of races can be considered tournaments in which you can enter or not enter as you see fit. It is a chance to match wits, skill, and even luck against thousands of others.
In many ways racing may even be more analogous to backgammon, another game I used to play pretty well. In backgammon, over a long series of games the better player will prevail; however, in any given game the worst player in the world may beat the world's best.
Long story short. I played Silver Tree to win and underneath Spice Route and Soldier's Dancer in the exacta and it didn't work out for me today. It is possible I overestimated the strength of the pattern, another thing I love is the post-mortem analysis. But I don't consider the play a mistake so much as a learning experience. A mistake is playing a short-priced underlay like I did in another race, one I don't make very often, just because I was convinced it couldn't lose, it could.
Regarding Edgar Prado. Edgar Prado is certainly a great rider and I'll be seeing a lot of him at Gulfstream in a few weeks. He's one of those riders you're always to happy to have on your choice and fear if he's on another.
Regards
Jeff
First for the race itself. Silver Tree settled into a stalking position behind the long shot pacesetter and so the race went until they hit the stretch when Spice Route and Soldier's Dancer kicked into gear and gave a great duel down the stretch with Spice Route prevailing by a head bob. Silver Tree faded to 6th.
The gist of the writer's letter was to make me aware that Edgar Prado was riding in Japan this past weekend and was not available for the mount at Calder. It is true that I was not aware of Edgar's whereabout's, so perhaps there is a point that the naming of Desormeaux was not part of some master-plan on Bill Mott's part but simply an act of necessity and coincidence as Prado was not going to be available for the mount. Point well taken.
What still remained however was the pattern of running Silver Tree in a non-graded stakes conditioner prior to winning a graded stakes race. All things considered, I still don't think it was a bad play though I did like Spice Route's chances a lot and am quite familiar with Soldier's Dancer's attributes as well.
Now, without further adieu, my response.
First thanks for reading my posts and sending me a note. I love to know that others are actually reading what I put up. I wasn't aware that Edgar was in Japan, but it wouldn't have mattered to my analysis as I was just trying to point out a pattern that I observed that might be meaningful that others may not have observed.
In this case Silver Tree went off at 5 to 1 which was probably about right considering the competition. Silver Tree tracked the pacesetter and was in contention most of the race, except for the part that mattered most and finished 6th. Spice Route, another horse I really liked and probably would have played if not for the pattern observation with Silver Tree, barely nosed out the favorite Soldier's Dancer.
However, this is what I love most about racing. Everything is out there in front of you to be seen and, in reality, there are very few secrets. In my younger days I was an expert chess player and spent much of my time playing tournaments, and I see a lot of analogies to racing as every race or series of races can be considered tournaments in which you can enter or not enter as you see fit. It is a chance to match wits, skill, and even luck against thousands of others.
In many ways racing may even be more analogous to backgammon, another game I used to play pretty well. In backgammon, over a long series of games the better player will prevail; however, in any given game the worst player in the world may beat the world's best.
Long story short. I played Silver Tree to win and underneath Spice Route and Soldier's Dancer in the exacta and it didn't work out for me today. It is possible I overestimated the strength of the pattern, another thing I love is the post-mortem analysis. But I don't consider the play a mistake so much as a learning experience. A mistake is playing a short-priced underlay like I did in another race, one I don't make very often, just because I was convinced it couldn't lose, it could.
Regarding Edgar Prado. Edgar Prado is certainly a great rider and I'll be seeing a lot of him at Gulfstream in a few weeks. He's one of those riders you're always to happy to have on your choice and fear if he's on another.
Regards
Jeff
Saturday, December 6, 2008
Trainer Patterns
The Grade 3 Tropical Turf Handicap is being run at Calder Race course. The weather is going to be dry with temperatures in the low 80's. The turf should be firm.
If you are a beliver in trainer patterns, I have a play for you today.
On July 15, 2007 at Delaware, this horse ran in the Crodney 200k and won under Edgar Prado.
On August 5, 2007 at Saratoga, this horse ran in 4strdavh-G2 and won under Kent Desormeaux.
On April 5 of the year at Tampa, this horse finished 2nd in a State-bred restricted 85k stakes under a rider I'm not familiar with Pznnsky, N. E. I guess Edgar doesn't ride in Tampa.
On April 27 at the Big A the horse won the Ftmarchy-G3 under Edgar Prado.
Back in Delaware on July 13, the horse finished 2nd in the Crodney under E.P. again.
Then on August 3 at Monmouth the horse won the Oceanport G3 under, guess who, Desormeaux.
Most recently, coming off a layoff on November 8 here at Calder the horse finished 4th under, once again, Edgar Prado. Now in the aforementioned G3, who should show up to ride him but good ol' Kent Desormeaux.
The trainer who has orchestrated this is Bill Mott. The horse is Silver Tree.
I know where I'm putting my money this race.
If you are a beliver in trainer patterns, I have a play for you today.
On July 15, 2007 at Delaware, this horse ran in the Crodney 200k and won under Edgar Prado.
On August 5, 2007 at Saratoga, this horse ran in 4strdavh-G2 and won under Kent Desormeaux.
On April 5 of the year at Tampa, this horse finished 2nd in a State-bred restricted 85k stakes under a rider I'm not familiar with Pznnsky, N. E. I guess Edgar doesn't ride in Tampa.
On April 27 at the Big A the horse won the Ftmarchy-G3 under Edgar Prado.
Back in Delaware on July 13, the horse finished 2nd in the Crodney under E.P. again.
Then on August 3 at Monmouth the horse won the Oceanport G3 under, guess who, Desormeaux.
Most recently, coming off a layoff on November 8 here at Calder the horse finished 4th under, once again, Edgar Prado. Now in the aforementioned G3, who should show up to ride him but good ol' Kent Desormeaux.
The trainer who has orchestrated this is Bill Mott. The horse is Silver Tree.
I know where I'm putting my money this race.
Monday, November 24, 2008
How's Your Halo
The end of the day was near, and the Chalk Eating Weasel knew it. Playing 3 tracks in one day was not his usual habit, but the racing secretary at Calder Race Course had forced him to it. Imagine filling a card with Maiden Claiming and Claiming for non-winners of 2 for three year olds and up. A card full of races filled with slow horses whose names will never be mentioned in the same breath as the greats. The Weasel wouldn't call them chronic losers. He has too much respect for even the lowliest of the breed to hang such a denigrating appellation upon them, but they were slow.
So the Weasel was playing Churchill and Fairgrounds in addition to the playable races at Calder. He thought about playing Aqueduct, but decided, being a Southern man, that he wanted no part of that damn Yankee track. He'd keep it in the south. The Fair Grounds is definitely in the south. CRC at qualifies geographically if not in state of mind. Churchill, residing in the northern reaches of a border state qualified, barely.
Things started off poorly for the Weasel, getting headed in the 2nd race at CRC and watching Leparoux ride the Weasel's underlaid top choice pass his actual investing selection in the 1st at Churchill. Things weren't getting any better as he watched the logical choice, Democratic Taxes (Leparoux again), while his betting selection in this race was leading at the 3/4 pole but faded badly in that long CD stretch.
As the day wore on it got worse as the Weasel's contenders weren't even winning at Churchill. Luckily, the Fair Grounds had kicked in giving the Weasel a couple of winners to stay in the game with, but still he was down and doubt was gnawing at him.
By now the feature race at Calder was up next. The Weasel liked, in order, Golden Spikes (Trained by Marty Wolfson) at anything greater than 9-2, but he didn't expect to get that on a Wolfson trainee that was 4 for 5 at CRC. Paradise Dancer who had yet to win in 3 races in 2008, but had run some hot Beyer's in 2007. Still at 8 years of age, using 20/20 hindsight, perhaps Paradise Dancer's best days are behind him. Ikigai, another Wolfson trainee and a speedball who with the withdrawl of Machismo had the possibility of stealing the race on the front end. Finally, How's Your Halo was his 4th choice. How's Your Halo is a nice enough 5 year old that managed to finish a drafting 2nd to Benny the Bull in July. No shame there, but How's Your Halo had only managed to win 1 race in 2007 and all of 2008.
When the tote board posted the first odds for the race the Weasel was dismayed. The only overlay on the board was How's Your Halo at around 20-1. Normally, that would make the Weasel ecstatic, but his confidence was shaken. Too many times on this day he had dutifully played his overlays only to watch a horse he liked better beat him at the wire, or even worse, a horse he didn't even consider to be a contender win while his chosen decided to lollygag towards the rear of the herd. "Please, please" he pleaded with the tote board, "Give me another horse to play."
It has been written,"Be careful what you wish for. You just may get it." The Gods of racing granted the Weasel's plea. How's Your Halo drifted down to an unplayable 6 to 1 while Paradise Dancer drifted up to what the Weasel felt to be a much more comfortable 4 to 1.
Well lo and behold, How's Your Halo was first under the wire being chased futilely by the favored Golden Spikes. Paradise Dancer finished a non-threatening...last.
Now he was at the end of the day. His bankroll as diminished as his spirits. One more race, the feature stakes at the Fair Grounds. C Karma, Breeder's Cup juvenile turf participant and only Graded stakes winner in the field seemed the logical choice to the Weasel. The Weasel wasn't concerned about Karma's lackluster Cup performance. Many good horses had bad days that weekend. Of more concern was the fact that this would be Karma's first time running in anger on real dirt. For that reason he made her 3 to 1 rather than 2 to 1 and required 9-2 to bet her.
Steve Asmussen had a couple of entries in this race that the Weasel thought had a chance: Tiffany Royal and A Day For Dancing. They were his 2nd and 3rd selections. He also thought Kays and Jays trained by Bill Mott had a chance.
Imagine the Weasel's glee as the odds opened with C Karma at 6 to 1. He couldn't believe his good fortune as he had a really strong feeling about this race. If only the odds would hold he would finally be able to play his top choice. Tiffany Royal was the public top choice with Kays and Jays the 2nd choice. A Day For Dancing seemed to be getting over looked, but that was OK, because his top choice was alive! The clocked ticked down. By 1o minutes to post C Karma was at 5 to 1. Still OK, he really didn't expect 6 to 1 on such an obvious choice. At 5 minutes to post C Karma was at 9 to 2. "Please, oh please," pleaded the Weasel to the Racing Gods once again. "Blind the crowd's eyes to the merits of this horse." However, this time the Gods turned a deaf ear to the Weasel's pleas at Karma drifted as low as 7 to 2. What was the Weasel to do?
Well the Weasel remembered what had happened at CRC with How's Your Halo and dutifully laid his money on his only overlay, A Day For Dancing. When the horses broke from the gate, both C Karma and A Day For Dancing seemed to lag the rest. Oh cruel Gods! But wait coming down the backstretch, A Day For Dancing is passing horses! As they come around the turn for home, A Day For Dancing is forging ahead. As they move down the stretch, A Day For Dancing is drifting out in the stretch, obviously tiring. Oh hold on Dancing, hold on. The horses behind Dancing are a looming threat but they cannot pass. C'mon Dancing. Then a streak appears on the outside, its C Karma. C Karma has all the momentum. Keep moving Dancing don't quit! And Dancing didn't quit. However Dancing was not able to hold off the speeding C Karma. But even as Dancing was being inevitably passed, Weasel kept yelling,"Hold on Dancing!"
The race was over, but the Weasel was still smiling. He had remained true to his principles and his method. The Weasel had certainly got his money's worth from Dancing who gave her all in finishing 2nd. The Weasel also had a $2.00 exacta ticket worth $66.60 that not only brought him all the way back, but actually put him a little ahead for the day. Because, you have probably figured out that the Weasel not only played Dancing to win, he also took the C Karma/Dancing exacta.
What a great sport that enables us lucky enough to follow it to experience such depths and heights of emotion. Truly it was a day for dancing.
Addendum: No damn yankees were harmed in the writing of this blog, but I wanted to.
So the Weasel was playing Churchill and Fairgrounds in addition to the playable races at Calder. He thought about playing Aqueduct, but decided, being a Southern man, that he wanted no part of that damn Yankee track. He'd keep it in the south. The Fair Grounds is definitely in the south. CRC at qualifies geographically if not in state of mind. Churchill, residing in the northern reaches of a border state qualified, barely.
Things started off poorly for the Weasel, getting headed in the 2nd race at CRC and watching Leparoux ride the Weasel's underlaid top choice pass his actual investing selection in the 1st at Churchill. Things weren't getting any better as he watched the logical choice, Democratic Taxes (Leparoux again), while his betting selection in this race was leading at the 3/4 pole but faded badly in that long CD stretch.
As the day wore on it got worse as the Weasel's contenders weren't even winning at Churchill. Luckily, the Fair Grounds had kicked in giving the Weasel a couple of winners to stay in the game with, but still he was down and doubt was gnawing at him.
By now the feature race at Calder was up next. The Weasel liked, in order, Golden Spikes (Trained by Marty Wolfson) at anything greater than 9-2, but he didn't expect to get that on a Wolfson trainee that was 4 for 5 at CRC. Paradise Dancer who had yet to win in 3 races in 2008, but had run some hot Beyer's in 2007. Still at 8 years of age, using 20/20 hindsight, perhaps Paradise Dancer's best days are behind him. Ikigai, another Wolfson trainee and a speedball who with the withdrawl of Machismo had the possibility of stealing the race on the front end. Finally, How's Your Halo was his 4th choice. How's Your Halo is a nice enough 5 year old that managed to finish a drafting 2nd to Benny the Bull in July. No shame there, but How's Your Halo had only managed to win 1 race in 2007 and all of 2008.
When the tote board posted the first odds for the race the Weasel was dismayed. The only overlay on the board was How's Your Halo at around 20-1. Normally, that would make the Weasel ecstatic, but his confidence was shaken. Too many times on this day he had dutifully played his overlays only to watch a horse he liked better beat him at the wire, or even worse, a horse he didn't even consider to be a contender win while his chosen decided to lollygag towards the rear of the herd. "Please, please" he pleaded with the tote board, "Give me another horse to play."
It has been written,"Be careful what you wish for. You just may get it." The Gods of racing granted the Weasel's plea. How's Your Halo drifted down to an unplayable 6 to 1 while Paradise Dancer drifted up to what the Weasel felt to be a much more comfortable 4 to 1.
Well lo and behold, How's Your Halo was first under the wire being chased futilely by the favored Golden Spikes. Paradise Dancer finished a non-threatening...last.
Now he was at the end of the day. His bankroll as diminished as his spirits. One more race, the feature stakes at the Fair Grounds. C Karma, Breeder's Cup juvenile turf participant and only Graded stakes winner in the field seemed the logical choice to the Weasel. The Weasel wasn't concerned about Karma's lackluster Cup performance. Many good horses had bad days that weekend. Of more concern was the fact that this would be Karma's first time running in anger on real dirt. For that reason he made her 3 to 1 rather than 2 to 1 and required 9-2 to bet her.
Steve Asmussen had a couple of entries in this race that the Weasel thought had a chance: Tiffany Royal and A Day For Dancing. They were his 2nd and 3rd selections. He also thought Kays and Jays trained by Bill Mott had a chance.
Imagine the Weasel's glee as the odds opened with C Karma at 6 to 1. He couldn't believe his good fortune as he had a really strong feeling about this race. If only the odds would hold he would finally be able to play his top choice. Tiffany Royal was the public top choice with Kays and Jays the 2nd choice. A Day For Dancing seemed to be getting over looked, but that was OK, because his top choice was alive! The clocked ticked down. By 1o minutes to post C Karma was at 5 to 1. Still OK, he really didn't expect 6 to 1 on such an obvious choice. At 5 minutes to post C Karma was at 9 to 2. "Please, oh please," pleaded the Weasel to the Racing Gods once again. "Blind the crowd's eyes to the merits of this horse." However, this time the Gods turned a deaf ear to the Weasel's pleas at Karma drifted as low as 7 to 2. What was the Weasel to do?
Well the Weasel remembered what had happened at CRC with How's Your Halo and dutifully laid his money on his only overlay, A Day For Dancing. When the horses broke from the gate, both C Karma and A Day For Dancing seemed to lag the rest. Oh cruel Gods! But wait coming down the backstretch, A Day For Dancing is passing horses! As they come around the turn for home, A Day For Dancing is forging ahead. As they move down the stretch, A Day For Dancing is drifting out in the stretch, obviously tiring. Oh hold on Dancing, hold on. The horses behind Dancing are a looming threat but they cannot pass. C'mon Dancing. Then a streak appears on the outside, its C Karma. C Karma has all the momentum. Keep moving Dancing don't quit! And Dancing didn't quit. However Dancing was not able to hold off the speeding C Karma. But even as Dancing was being inevitably passed, Weasel kept yelling,"Hold on Dancing!"
The race was over, but the Weasel was still smiling. He had remained true to his principles and his method. The Weasel had certainly got his money's worth from Dancing who gave her all in finishing 2nd. The Weasel also had a $2.00 exacta ticket worth $66.60 that not only brought him all the way back, but actually put him a little ahead for the day. Because, you have probably figured out that the Weasel not only played Dancing to win, he also took the C Karma/Dancing exacta.
What a great sport that enables us lucky enough to follow it to experience such depths and heights of emotion. Truly it was a day for dancing.
Addendum: No damn yankees were harmed in the writing of this blog, but I wanted to.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Back in the Saddle
I'm so sorry to have been away and let my tens of readers down. Where's the weasel? Is he coming back? Who's going to keep us updated on the S. Fla. racing scene?
Take heart brave readers. I had a near death bout with a nasty rhinovirus last week. In addition, my modem/router crapped out on Saturday and it took until today for ATT to get me a new one.
But I'm back now and will resume blogging just as soon I finish with Friday and Saturday's Golden Gate and Calder Cards, maybe Hollywood too.
Oh, and speaking of Golden Gate, BRIDGE JUMPER ALERT!!!!!!!!!
Multiple Grade 1 winner Artiste Royal comes back from frollicking in the pasture, no doubt, for the last five months to stretch his legs in the 3rd race at Golden Gate, an Allowance race worth 39K. A definite single in the pick 4!
Take heart brave readers. I had a near death bout with a nasty rhinovirus last week. In addition, my modem/router crapped out on Saturday and it took until today for ATT to get me a new one.
But I'm back now and will resume blogging just as soon I finish with Friday and Saturday's Golden Gate and Calder Cards, maybe Hollywood too.
Oh, and speaking of Golden Gate, BRIDGE JUMPER ALERT!!!!!!!!!
Multiple Grade 1 winner Artiste Royal comes back from frollicking in the pasture, no doubt, for the last five months to stretch his legs in the 3rd race at Golden Gate, an Allowance race worth 39K. A definite single in the pick 4!
Monday, November 10, 2008
Florida Million Day
I really enjoyed the day Saturday. The weather was perfect, and there was actually a decent sized crowd in attendance. It's amazing how many people will show up for a day at the races when the management makes only a minimal amount of effort to bring them in.
By minimal amount I mean radio advertising and having non-racing activities to keep the children entertained while the adults play grown-up games. Since Calder no longer gives out attendance figures, you just have to take my word for it that attendance Saturday was much higher than the typical crowd.
Sometimes I think the management operates as if it were 1978 rather than 2008 when the only competition they had were the Dog Tracks, Jai Alai, and the Dolphins. Jai Alai is hanging on by a very thin thread, and I suspect the same for the dog tracks. The Dania Beach Jai Alai Fronton offers poker and simulcast racing in addition to jai alai. I've never been there, but I've heard that it is a rather sad shadow of its former self. A local sports radio station now holds monthly events there, and I think they're trying to resurrect the place. They've got poker, ponies, and jai alai according to their radio jingle sang enthusiastically in a very dated manner that is certainly not designed to appeal to a younger crowd. Maybe they've given up.
Now the competition is fiercer for the gambling dollar. The state has a lottery. For one dollar you can make a life changing fortune, maybe. I don't play the lottery. The Seminole Indian Tribe has the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino. For awhile it was limited to slot machines and poker, but now they have blackjack as well. Still as far as casinos go, I think it is something of joke, but it is the only place in mainland Florida where you can play blackjack. And blackjack is such a simple game to play, I'm sure it attracts many gambling dollars. The former Hollywood Dog Track, just up US 1 from Gulfstream, is now offering slots and poker. The Pompano Beach Harness track has poker and slots. Gulfstream has poker and slots. Sheesh, I didn't know there were so many poker and slot players in South Florida. Heck, there are even Casino boats available which just set sail for international waters and game away.
The point of this rant is simply to point out that Calder could compete better for these dollars with just a little effort and it wouldn't cost that much. Upgrade the facilities and put in a full fledged simulcast center with HD television sets rather than the vintage tube televisions they still have scatter all over the plant. They do have the option now of installing slot machines. Personally, that doesn't interest me, but if it would help them increase the purse structure then I'm all for it. Why not bring in up and coming music acts, not washed up has beens like Eddie Money, that appeal to younger potential fans. They don't have to get the top of the line acts. My daughter prefers the "indie" bands that don't have a regular record deal and there are a lot of kids like my daughter. Bring them in with music and let them fall in love with racing in the process.
I'm sorry, I didn't mean to take an ad hominum shot at Eddie Money, but I found it amusing last year when Gulfstream was trying to promote the Eddie Money concert the same night the Seminole Casino had Rod Stewart performing. Really, which, if either would you attend. I guess the difference is first tier has beens vs. second tier has beens. Buy why compete in the has-been market at all?
Well, this isn't the direction I meant to take at all when I sat down to write this. That's what I get for not doing the outline first. I was going to tell you about my day at the races. Briefly, I was unable to separate myself from the continuum in 8 of 12 on the card and did not play them, and in the four where there was separation, the continuum got the best of me on this day.
Also I was going to post some pictures, but I forgot to take my camera. Fortunately, I had my cell phone camera with me. Unfortunately, I think Todd Pletcher was a no show although Icy Atlantic showed up in the winner's circle for the Bonnie Heath Turf Cup.
That's Cornelio Velazques sitting on the winner and the guy in the pink shirt to the left, I suppose, works for Mr. Pletcher.
I thought I saw someone who looked like Bill Mott talking to someone in the paddock area, but I wasn't sure and opted not to make a fool of myself. At any rate, if he was there he wasn't saddling as some pretty young lady was doing the honors in the paddock. Tamborin was the Mott trainee that found his way to the winner's circle.
The young woman next to the guy in the orange shirt was standing in for Mr. Mott.
Then of course, a stakes day at CRC would not be complete without a visit to the winner's circle by our own Marty Wolfson.
By minimal amount I mean radio advertising and having non-racing activities to keep the children entertained while the adults play grown-up games. Since Calder no longer gives out attendance figures, you just have to take my word for it that attendance Saturday was much higher than the typical crowd.
Sometimes I think the management operates as if it were 1978 rather than 2008 when the only competition they had were the Dog Tracks, Jai Alai, and the Dolphins. Jai Alai is hanging on by a very thin thread, and I suspect the same for the dog tracks. The Dania Beach Jai Alai Fronton offers poker and simulcast racing in addition to jai alai. I've never been there, but I've heard that it is a rather sad shadow of its former self. A local sports radio station now holds monthly events there, and I think they're trying to resurrect the place. They've got poker, ponies, and jai alai according to their radio jingle sang enthusiastically in a very dated manner that is certainly not designed to appeal to a younger crowd. Maybe they've given up.
Now the competition is fiercer for the gambling dollar. The state has a lottery. For one dollar you can make a life changing fortune, maybe. I don't play the lottery. The Seminole Indian Tribe has the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino. For awhile it was limited to slot machines and poker, but now they have blackjack as well. Still as far as casinos go, I think it is something of joke, but it is the only place in mainland Florida where you can play blackjack. And blackjack is such a simple game to play, I'm sure it attracts many gambling dollars. The former Hollywood Dog Track, just up US 1 from Gulfstream, is now offering slots and poker. The Pompano Beach Harness track has poker and slots. Gulfstream has poker and slots. Sheesh, I didn't know there were so many poker and slot players in South Florida. Heck, there are even Casino boats available which just set sail for international waters and game away.
The point of this rant is simply to point out that Calder could compete better for these dollars with just a little effort and it wouldn't cost that much. Upgrade the facilities and put in a full fledged simulcast center with HD television sets rather than the vintage tube televisions they still have scatter all over the plant. They do have the option now of installing slot machines. Personally, that doesn't interest me, but if it would help them increase the purse structure then I'm all for it. Why not bring in up and coming music acts, not washed up has beens like Eddie Money, that appeal to younger potential fans. They don't have to get the top of the line acts. My daughter prefers the "indie" bands that don't have a regular record deal and there are a lot of kids like my daughter. Bring them in with music and let them fall in love with racing in the process.
I'm sorry, I didn't mean to take an ad hominum shot at Eddie Money, but I found it amusing last year when Gulfstream was trying to promote the Eddie Money concert the same night the Seminole Casino had Rod Stewart performing. Really, which, if either would you attend. I guess the difference is first tier has beens vs. second tier has beens. Buy why compete in the has-been market at all?
Well, this isn't the direction I meant to take at all when I sat down to write this. That's what I get for not doing the outline first. I was going to tell you about my day at the races. Briefly, I was unable to separate myself from the continuum in 8 of 12 on the card and did not play them, and in the four where there was separation, the continuum got the best of me on this day.
Also I was going to post some pictures, but I forgot to take my camera. Fortunately, I had my cell phone camera with me. Unfortunately, I think Todd Pletcher was a no show although Icy Atlantic showed up in the winner's circle for the Bonnie Heath Turf Cup.
That's Cornelio Velazques sitting on the winner and the guy in the pink shirt to the left, I suppose, works for Mr. Pletcher.
I thought I saw someone who looked like Bill Mott talking to someone in the paddock area, but I wasn't sure and opted not to make a fool of myself. At any rate, if he was there he wasn't saddling as some pretty young lady was doing the honors in the paddock. Tamborin was the Mott trainee that found his way to the winner's circle.
The young woman next to the guy in the orange shirt was standing in for Mr. Mott.
Then of course, a stakes day at CRC would not be complete without a visit to the winner's circle by our own Marty Wolfson.
Marty is the guy in the bluish shirt in the middle of the picture. The horse is Frolic's Dream winner of the Joe O'Farrell Juvenile Fillies Stakes ridden by J V Bridgmohan.
Ok, I'm done. Maybe next time I'll complain about the silly dispute between Advance Deposit Wagering facilities and various horsemen's associtions.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Florida Million Day
The weather here in Miami is beautiful. The skies are expected to be partly cloudy with temperatures in the low 80's. There is a slight chance of passing rain in the afternoon, but, probably not enough to change the races from the Turf. So the track should be fast and the Turf firm, or maybe good if we get a shower.
There are 7 stakes races on the card today, many of which feature 2 year olds. So lets get to it.
Race 4 1 1/8 Mile Bonnie Heath Turf Cup Handicap for 3 year olds and upward registered Florida Breds. Purse = 150K
I expect It' A Bird will run in the 11th, so the 2nd odds set reflects this occurence.
Race 5: 7 Furlongs, Jack Price Juvenile Stakes. Purse $150,000 For Two Year Olds Registered Florida Breds
Race 6 1 1/16 Mile John Franks Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes. Purse $ 100,000. For Fillies Two Years Old Registered Florida Breds.
Race 7 Joe O'Farrell Juvenile Fillies Stakes, Purse $150,000 For Fillies Two Years Old and Registered Florida Breds
Race 8 Jack Dudley Sprint Handicap. Purse $150,000 For Three Year Olds and Upward Registered Florida Breeds.
Race 9 1 1/16 Arthur L. Appleton Juvenile Turf Stakes. Purse $100,000 For Two Year Olds Registered Florida Breds
Race 10, 1 1/16 Elmer Heubeck Distaff Handicap. Purse $200,000 For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Registered Florida Breds.
Race 11 1 1/8 Mile Carl G. Rose Classic Handicap. Purse $200,000 For Three Year Olds and Upward Registered Florida Breds
P# 11th Race A A Current Odds Fair Odds Overlay Odds
#5 It's A Bird 1-1 3-1
#7 Atlantic Paws 5-1 8-1
#1 Dream Maestro 6-1 9-1
5. Five of the eight in this race were beaten convincingly by this one in G3 Spendabuck. 7 New horse in race has top local jockey and may be pointed for this one. 1 finished a gaining 3rd to the 5. The extra 1/2 f may help.
Well that's it, remember this posting is entirely my opinion and I don't make my living playing horses. In other words, these opinions are worth exactly what you paid for them
There are 7 stakes races on the card today, many of which feature 2 year olds. So lets get to it.
Race 4 1 1/8 Mile Bonnie Heath Turf Cup Handicap for 3 year olds and upward registered Florida Breds. Purse = 150K
I expect It' A Bird will run in the 11th, so the 2nd odds set reflects this occurence.Race 5: 7 Furlongs, Jack Price Juvenile Stakes. Purse $150,000 For Two Year Olds Registered Florida Breds
Race 6 1 1/16 Mile John Franks Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes. Purse $ 100,000. For Fillies Two Years Old Registered Florida Breds.
Race 7 Joe O'Farrell Juvenile Fillies Stakes, Purse $150,000 For Fillies Two Years Old and Registered Florida Breds Race 8 Jack Dudley Sprint Handicap. Purse $150,000 For Three Year Olds and Upward Registered Florida Breeds. Race 9 1 1/16 Arthur L. Appleton Juvenile Turf Stakes. Purse $100,000 For Two Year Olds Registered Florida Breds Race 10, 1 1/16 Elmer Heubeck Distaff Handicap. Purse $200,000 For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Registered Florida Breds.Race 11 1 1/8 Mile Carl G. Rose Classic Handicap. Purse $200,000 For Three Year Olds and Upward Registered Florida Breds
P# 11th Race A A Current Odds Fair Odds Overlay Odds
#5 It's A Bird 1-1 3-1
#7 Atlantic Paws 5-1 8-1
#1 Dream Maestro 6-1 9-1
5. Five of the eight in this race were beaten convincingly by this one in G3 Spendabuck. 7 New horse in race has top local jockey and may be pointed for this one. 1 finished a gaining 3rd to the 5. The extra 1/2 f may help.
Well that's it, remember this posting is entirely my opinion and I don't make my living playing horses. In other words, these opinions are worth exactly what you paid for them
Friday, November 7, 2008
Florida Million
Tomorrow is one of the big stakes days at CRC with a Million dollars of purse money guaranteed. Lots of good 2 year old races. Who knows? Maybe one is the next derby winner. Bill Mott will be here, well at least some of his horses and Todd Pletcher too. Of course, Marty Wolfson will be prowling for some stakes money (I just recently learned he does not like to fly, so if you ever see Marty at a track other than CRC or Gulfstream, go to the windows).
In addition an old CRC favorite, Elvis Trujillo will be back for some rides along with Edgar Prado and others. Should be an exciting day of racing!
If I see Mott or Pletcher, I'll try to get a picture and post it. Maybe at the Winner's circle. Come back tomorrow and I'll give you some selections, for what their worth.
In addition an old CRC favorite, Elvis Trujillo will be back for some rides along with Edgar Prado and others. Should be an exciting day of racing!
If I see Mott or Pletcher, I'll try to get a picture and post it. Maybe at the Winner's circle. Come back tomorrow and I'll give you some selections, for what their worth.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Wacky Betting System #1
As a frequent guest of local South Florida horse race betting establishments, I have met and conversed with many fellow handicappers. We all have our own methods of selecting winners. Personally, I have to sift through many details in the form before arriving at my contender selections. Occassionally, I run into people who are willing to share their methods. As I come across these techniques, I'll share them with you, dear readers. I will call the first method the Biorhythm number method.
Day 1 of the Breeder's cup, I had settled into my seat in the simulcast room and had already played a couple of races at Calder Race Course when an interesting characater sat at the station next to me. The gentleman was slightly less than average height and slightly more than average weight (aren't we all). On top of his head he sported what I like to refer to as the baby-boomer version of a comb-over. You know what I'm talking about. Rather than combing the hair from the side over the bald spot the hair is pulled straight back in tied into what is usually a stunted attempt at a pony tail.
The first thing he asked me for was the number of the winner in the first race at Calder. I told him that the 3 horse had one the first race, but thinking, perhaps, he was interested in track biases, I pointed out to him that the 3 had broken from the inside post due to late scratches in the race.
That information didn't seem to interest him at all. Instead he started going through the race results on the screen of all the races of all the tracks and writing down the first four finishers of each race without regard to distance, surface, or any other normal racing factor.
He introduced himself to me as Sal, a hair stylist (I think) and artist who had been playing the races for years. He even claimed to have done portraits of some jockey whose name I don't recall who used to race a lot at Gulfstream Park. Of course being at the race track, I take everything with a grain of salt, but, still, I had no particular reason disbelieve him.
Sal, being a talkative sort then explained his betting system to me. Apparently, Sal is of the belief that on any given day, certain numbers are more likely to come in than others. The reason has nothing to do with track conditions, trainers, jockeys, post-positions, or anything else racing related. Rather, he attributed the reason to biorhythms.
I don't think I've heard the term biorhythm since the early '70's which sort of gives you an idea of where Sal was coming from. The system was basically writing down the top finishers of every race at every track and after giving the racing form a cursory glance to make sure the hopeful number didn't belong to a totally hopeless horse construct trifecta bets either boxing contenders of keying off of a contender or two in every race he could catch around the country.
It didn't take Sal long to blow through his first $200.00 with this method, but he was still optimistic that if he persisted long enough he would hit that box car trifecta. He had done so frequently in the past, and actually, I'm quite sure he has since every once in a while even a blind squirell will find a nut.
Underterred Sal deposited another sum of money into his day account. I'm not sure how much. At least $100.00 maybe as much as $200.00. At first he remained optimistic, but as his balance began dwindling, so did his demeanor. Toward the end of his 2nd deposit he was beginning to ask me my opinion on certain races. I'm afraid I couldn't help him much since I had only handicapped the Calder and Breeder's cup races, but I gave him my opinion when it was available. Also, since I play horizontally (Pick-3 or pick 4) rather than vertically, it is a mistake to try to convert my selections to trifecta bets, although even I can get lucky once in a while.
Poor Sal drained his account a 2nd time and reluctantly returned to deposit still more money in his account. Sal is already way past the point where I would've called it a day. I have a lot of confidence in my play and recognize that I am going to go through cold streaks and hot streaks. It is the nature of the game. However, if I seem to be going through a cold period I will back down my wagers while I try to figure out what I'm missing. Not so with Sal. Confidence in one's approach is important; however, so is objectivity and discretion.
Sal was doing no better with his third deposit and was now feeling the need to point out to me how close he had been coming. If only this horse had not finished in the money or if only he had boxed this group instead of keying a horse. I'm not quite sure if he trying to convince me or himself, but as is third deposit dwindled, so did his resolve. By the end of the third deposit, Sal was quite defeated.
I commiserated with Sal and told him surely he would have better luck tomorrow which is probably true since he couldn't have had worse. But Sal wasn't coming back tomorrow.
Sal has a problem. Sal is looking for quick easy payoffs and is not willing to make the effort to actually understand a race in all its facets such as speed, pace, class, and conditions. Its much easier just to play numbers. No homework is required. Actually, in a way Sal is a throwback to a time when horse racing had much less competition for the gambler's dollars. Sal would be just as happy, or miserable, playing slot machines and lotteries. He just hasn't realized it yet.
Day 1 of the Breeder's cup, I had settled into my seat in the simulcast room and had already played a couple of races at Calder Race Course when an interesting characater sat at the station next to me. The gentleman was slightly less than average height and slightly more than average weight (aren't we all). On top of his head he sported what I like to refer to as the baby-boomer version of a comb-over. You know what I'm talking about. Rather than combing the hair from the side over the bald spot the hair is pulled straight back in tied into what is usually a stunted attempt at a pony tail.
The first thing he asked me for was the number of the winner in the first race at Calder. I told him that the 3 horse had one the first race, but thinking, perhaps, he was interested in track biases, I pointed out to him that the 3 had broken from the inside post due to late scratches in the race.
That information didn't seem to interest him at all. Instead he started going through the race results on the screen of all the races of all the tracks and writing down the first four finishers of each race without regard to distance, surface, or any other normal racing factor.
He introduced himself to me as Sal, a hair stylist (I think) and artist who had been playing the races for years. He even claimed to have done portraits of some jockey whose name I don't recall who used to race a lot at Gulfstream Park. Of course being at the race track, I take everything with a grain of salt, but, still, I had no particular reason disbelieve him.
Sal, being a talkative sort then explained his betting system to me. Apparently, Sal is of the belief that on any given day, certain numbers are more likely to come in than others. The reason has nothing to do with track conditions, trainers, jockeys, post-positions, or anything else racing related. Rather, he attributed the reason to biorhythms.
I don't think I've heard the term biorhythm since the early '70's which sort of gives you an idea of where Sal was coming from. The system was basically writing down the top finishers of every race at every track and after giving the racing form a cursory glance to make sure the hopeful number didn't belong to a totally hopeless horse construct trifecta bets either boxing contenders of keying off of a contender or two in every race he could catch around the country.
It didn't take Sal long to blow through his first $200.00 with this method, but he was still optimistic that if he persisted long enough he would hit that box car trifecta. He had done so frequently in the past, and actually, I'm quite sure he has since every once in a while even a blind squirell will find a nut.
Underterred Sal deposited another sum of money into his day account. I'm not sure how much. At least $100.00 maybe as much as $200.00. At first he remained optimistic, but as his balance began dwindling, so did his demeanor. Toward the end of his 2nd deposit he was beginning to ask me my opinion on certain races. I'm afraid I couldn't help him much since I had only handicapped the Calder and Breeder's cup races, but I gave him my opinion when it was available. Also, since I play horizontally (Pick-3 or pick 4) rather than vertically, it is a mistake to try to convert my selections to trifecta bets, although even I can get lucky once in a while.
Poor Sal drained his account a 2nd time and reluctantly returned to deposit still more money in his account. Sal is already way past the point where I would've called it a day. I have a lot of confidence in my play and recognize that I am going to go through cold streaks and hot streaks. It is the nature of the game. However, if I seem to be going through a cold period I will back down my wagers while I try to figure out what I'm missing. Not so with Sal. Confidence in one's approach is important; however, so is objectivity and discretion.
Sal was doing no better with his third deposit and was now feeling the need to point out to me how close he had been coming. If only this horse had not finished in the money or if only he had boxed this group instead of keying a horse. I'm not quite sure if he trying to convince me or himself, but as is third deposit dwindled, so did his resolve. By the end of the third deposit, Sal was quite defeated.
I commiserated with Sal and told him surely he would have better luck tomorrow which is probably true since he couldn't have had worse. But Sal wasn't coming back tomorrow.
Sal has a problem. Sal is looking for quick easy payoffs and is not willing to make the effort to actually understand a race in all its facets such as speed, pace, class, and conditions. Its much easier just to play numbers. No homework is required. Actually, in a way Sal is a throwback to a time when horse racing had much less competition for the gambler's dollars. Sal would be just as happy, or miserable, playing slot machines and lotteries. He just hasn't realized it yet.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Breeder's Cup Post-Mortem
What can I say? Every race this weekend was a complete nail-biter. My only wish is that my personal selections on Saturday would've been better. Of the 9 races, only 2 contenders managed to find the winner's circle.
In the Marathon I wound up on Big Booster who, at least managed to finish a competitive 3rd.
In the Turf Sprint I knew there was a strong possibility that Mr. Nightlinger and California Flag would duel each other to a collapse on the front end, but I was unable to come up with correct horse to pick up the pieces. Three selections in this race came up as overlays, by my reckoning, indicating I didn't have a very good grasp of this race. The betting collective is not stupid by any means, so if I seem to run this far against the grain I stay out of the race.
The dirt mile was another complete whiff on my part. I split my wager between Surf Cat and Pyro. I knew Pyro would have his work cut out for him here, but I really thought Surf Cat would put in a stronger performance.
For the Breeder's Cup Mile, I clearly underestimated how good Goldikova is by making her 5-1. I played the 3rd place finisher, Whatthescript, but it wasn't close once Goldy found a seam and turned on the jets. Goldikova was one of the horses getting a lot of buzz all week long which just naturally raised my contrarian instincts. However the buzz was correct this time. And just think, this is the second best filly in Europe this year.
The BC Juvenile offered what I believed to be the first good Pick-3 opportunity of the day with the top selection of Bushranger going off at 5-1. As you know by now, Bushranger diappointed and killed both my Pick 3 and my win bet.
Not to be discouraged, the BC Juvenile Turf race was one race I felt very confident about and again my top choice, Bittel Road, was going off at nice odds. Another Pick 3/Win bet shot down quickly.
I really have to give Bob Baffert credit getting Midnight Lute ready for the BC Sprint coming off his last race. If I'd have given him credit before the race rather than after I might've been better off. Black Seventeen was my huckleberry in this race. Another win bet off the board.
The bright spot of the day was Conduit in the BC Turf. Soldier of Fortune was the buzz horse in this race, so this was a time when discounting the buzz horse paid off. Conduit, being my top choice, got my maximum bet and paid off a little better than 5 to 1. This race combined with a couple of max bet winners earlier at Calder Race Course made the day slightly profitable as well as entertaining.
The BC Classic lived up to its billing. I made a token exacta bet with Curlin on top of Colonel John just because it was Curlin's last race but otherwise decided to sit the race out. I really thought Curlin was going win and drag Colonel John behind him when he made the big sweeping move on the turn with CJ in tow. Then Curlin seemed to flatten out down the stretch and get swallowed by a wave of horse flesh with Raven's Pass clearly the better horse on this day. All the same, I'd happily trade places with Curlin as he heads off to a leisurely retirement of carnal pleasure.
Well there you have it. All in all I had a great weekend, and made a little money. After the classic, I took my lovely wife upstairs to the Ten Palms restautant where we enjoyed the all you can eat buffet with some of my winnings for the weekend. It was the least I could do after pretty much abandoning her for the entire weekend.
Well its back to my day job on Monday and the more mundane world, but easier to fathom, world of cheap claiming horses at CRC. Until next time.
In the Marathon I wound up on Big Booster who, at least managed to finish a competitive 3rd.
In the Turf Sprint I knew there was a strong possibility that Mr. Nightlinger and California Flag would duel each other to a collapse on the front end, but I was unable to come up with correct horse to pick up the pieces. Three selections in this race came up as overlays, by my reckoning, indicating I didn't have a very good grasp of this race. The betting collective is not stupid by any means, so if I seem to run this far against the grain I stay out of the race.
The dirt mile was another complete whiff on my part. I split my wager between Surf Cat and Pyro. I knew Pyro would have his work cut out for him here, but I really thought Surf Cat would put in a stronger performance.
For the Breeder's Cup Mile, I clearly underestimated how good Goldikova is by making her 5-1. I played the 3rd place finisher, Whatthescript, but it wasn't close once Goldy found a seam and turned on the jets. Goldikova was one of the horses getting a lot of buzz all week long which just naturally raised my contrarian instincts. However the buzz was correct this time. And just think, this is the second best filly in Europe this year.
The BC Juvenile offered what I believed to be the first good Pick-3 opportunity of the day with the top selection of Bushranger going off at 5-1. As you know by now, Bushranger diappointed and killed both my Pick 3 and my win bet.
Not to be discouraged, the BC Juvenile Turf race was one race I felt very confident about and again my top choice, Bittel Road, was going off at nice odds. Another Pick 3/Win bet shot down quickly.
I really have to give Bob Baffert credit getting Midnight Lute ready for the BC Sprint coming off his last race. If I'd have given him credit before the race rather than after I might've been better off. Black Seventeen was my huckleberry in this race. Another win bet off the board.
The bright spot of the day was Conduit in the BC Turf. Soldier of Fortune was the buzz horse in this race, so this was a time when discounting the buzz horse paid off. Conduit, being my top choice, got my maximum bet and paid off a little better than 5 to 1. This race combined with a couple of max bet winners earlier at Calder Race Course made the day slightly profitable as well as entertaining.
The BC Classic lived up to its billing. I made a token exacta bet with Curlin on top of Colonel John just because it was Curlin's last race but otherwise decided to sit the race out. I really thought Curlin was going win and drag Colonel John behind him when he made the big sweeping move on the turn with CJ in tow. Then Curlin seemed to flatten out down the stretch and get swallowed by a wave of horse flesh with Raven's Pass clearly the better horse on this day. All the same, I'd happily trade places with Curlin as he heads off to a leisurely retirement of carnal pleasure.
Well there you have it. All in all I had a great weekend, and made a little money. After the classic, I took my lovely wife upstairs to the Ten Palms restautant where we enjoyed the all you can eat buffet with some of my winnings for the weekend. It was the least I could do after pretty much abandoning her for the entire weekend.
Well its back to my day job on Monday and the more mundane world, but easier to fathom, world of cheap claiming horses at CRC. Until next time.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Maram Wins!
Not a bad first day of Breeder's Cup racing, and the fillies and mares put on a great show. My selections were pretty good as the opening race was the only one I totally whiffed on. My method is not about picking winners so much as finding the likely contenders, assigning value and playing the horse that offers the best value or not playing at all if the valuation standards are not met.
Loved Zenayatta's race! What other horse can go 6 wide and get taken even wider by another competitor and still win with such ease. But Zenyatta was not a value play. The value play that paid turned out to be the 11-1 Maram in the 1 mile BC Juvenile Filly. You don't have to find too many of them to make your day!
Let's hope the boys can put on as good a show tomorrow as the girls did today.
Loved Zenayatta's race! What other horse can go 6 wide and get taken even wider by another competitor and still win with such ease. But Zenyatta was not a value play. The value play that paid turned out to be the 11-1 Maram in the 1 mile BC Juvenile Filly. You don't have to find too many of them to make your day!
Let's hope the boys can put on as good a show tomorrow as the girls did today.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Breeder's Cup Eve
At last, the moment we've all been waiting for, the Chalk Eating Weasel's Breeder's Cup Selections.
The first race on Friday is the 7 Furlong BC Filly and Mare Sprint. I saw on TVG today that Indyanne, whom I had the pleasure of watching demolish the G3 Azalea field at CRC this year, has a 90% probability of being scratched as she has developed a fever. I didn't have her as a win contender, but she certainly would've been a pace factor. As it is there is still plenty of pace in this race between Dearest Tricksi and Dream Rush. All this is to say that this race appears to set up for, and I'm going to go out on a limb here, Indian Blessing. Yes I know, a chalk eating weasel for sure. But just think, you could've paid some expert $20.00 or more to give you this same information I'm giving you for free. And here's the bonus.
Contenders: Indian Blessing at 9-5 so the overlay is 5-2, Zaftig is the 2nd choice, one of the few blemishes on IB's record at 5-2 overlay 4-1, and Intangaroo also has a sporting chance at fair odds of 5-1 overlay needs to be 8-1.
Note that my purpose is not to predict order of finish, but likelihood of winning. You'll have to come up with your own trifectas, but you can link these picks to the next races for pick 3's and 4's and, dare I say it, 6's.
1 Mile BC Juvenile Filly Turf
The Santa Anita Turf has been playing to speed for the Oak tree meet and I don't think anything will change that. Laragh, ridden by the crafty Edgar Prado, has all the speed here and is my favorite to win at fair odds of 2-1 and overlay odds of 3-1. I also like the G3 Canadian horse C Karma at 5-2 and 4-1 and the undefeated Maram at 4-1 and 6-1.
1 1/16 Mile BC Juvenile Filly
G1 Frizette winner Sky Diva is unbeaten in 2 outings. The running line comment for the Frizette reads, "Periodic hand urges". That means she has more in reserve if needed. Therefore I make her my fave @ 3-1 needing 9-2 for the overlay. Stardom Bound gets the home track advantage and is the 2nd choice @ 7-2 needing 5-1. C.S. Silk fired a monster fig. at Arlington Park last out and will be all elbow and asshole to the field with a repeat and is the 3rd choice @4-1 needing 6-1 for the overlay. I also have to throw in Dream Empress although I don't like the 12 post. Still Desormeaux is one of the best on turf and she is a G1 winner so @ 6-1 needing 9-1 would be worth a flyer.
1 1/4 BC Filly and Mare Turf
A couple of capable foreigners in here, but I'm staying with the good ol' US of A for this one. Wait A While no really I'll tell you later ; ) Wait a While has a G1 win over the course for the Pletcher-Velazquez connection. Last year you could take that combo to the bank. Lately... Still the horse has been nothing but consistent and fast and is my top choice at 3-1 needing 9-2. Dynaforce is the 2nd choice @7-2 needing 5-1, but if you believe in figure patterns some caution may in order as the read 94-103-93-103 suggesting DF may not bring her best this time. By the way, I use Brisnet's PP's as I've found the information and layout to be far superior to DRF. Mauralakana shows the opposite pattern to DF, so maybe I'll flip them, but now I have her at 9-2 needing 7-1. finally Forever Together has been showing good form at 7 different tracks for last 7 races. Give her 5-1 needing 8-1.
1 1/8 mile BC Ladies Classic
Who can beat Zenyatta, maybe the hard working Ginger Punch or the exotic Cocoa Beach, but I'm not betting on it. Zenyatta is even money for me needing 3-2 to bet her. Cocoa Beach gets the 2nd call @5-1 needing 8-1 and Ginger Punch gets 6-1 needing 9-1.
Now for the Boys, and some Girls
1 1/2 Mile BC Marathon
Sixties Icon has been having no trouble winning on the soggy Euro turf at this distance and I expect he'll transfer that form onto the artificial surface with no problem. I make 3-1 and will need 9-2. Delightful Kiss is the 2nd choice and I can think of no better ground saving type of rider than Calvin Borel to guide a horse in a race like this. Make him 7-2 needing 5-1. Zappa gets the home field advantage 9-2 need 7-1 and Big Booster is rested and seems capable of upsetting the field for a big price 6-1 and no less than 9-1.
Ok, I'm getting tired and I've been at this all day so here is the rest, no commentary just picks and odds.
6 1/2 F BC turf Sprint
Mr. Nightlinger 3-1 9-2
California Flag 3-1 9-2
Only Answer 5-1, 8-1
Fleeting Spirit 6-1, 9-1
1 Mile BC Dirt Mile
Well Armed 5-2, 4-1
Lewis Michael 4-1, 6-1
Surf Cat 5-1, 8-1
Pyro 6-1, 9-1
1 Mile BC Turf Mile
Daytona 3-1, 9-2
Whatthescript 7-2, 5-1
Precious Kitten 9-2, 7-1
Goldikova 5-1, 8-1
1 1/16 BC Juvenile
Bushranger 3-1, 9-2
Square Eddie 4-1, 6-1
Munnings 4-1, 6-1
Street Hero 6-1, 9-1
1 Mile BC Juvenile Turf
Bittel Road 8-5, 5-2
Grand Adventure 3-1, 9-2
Westphalia 9-2, 7-1
6F BC Sprint
Street Boss 3-1, 9-2
Black Seventeen 7-2, 5-1
Cost of Freedom 9-2, 7-1
Fabulous Strike 6-1, 9-1
1 1/2 Mile BC Turf
Conduit 2-1, 3-1
Soldier of Fortune 5-2, 4-1
Grand Courtier 4-1, 6-1
1 1/4 BC Classic
Curlin (who else) 8-5, 5-2
Go Between 6-1, 9-1
Casino Drive 6-1, 9-1
Duke of Marmalade 6-1, 9-1
I'll be in seat 52 of the Super Corral at in the Silks Simulcast Center at Gulfstream Racecourse tomorrow and Saturday if you want to come buy me a Woodford Reserve
The first race on Friday is the 7 Furlong BC Filly and Mare Sprint. I saw on TVG today that Indyanne, whom I had the pleasure of watching demolish the G3 Azalea field at CRC this year, has a 90% probability of being scratched as she has developed a fever. I didn't have her as a win contender, but she certainly would've been a pace factor. As it is there is still plenty of pace in this race between Dearest Tricksi and Dream Rush. All this is to say that this race appears to set up for, and I'm going to go out on a limb here, Indian Blessing. Yes I know, a chalk eating weasel for sure. But just think, you could've paid some expert $20.00 or more to give you this same information I'm giving you for free. And here's the bonus.
Contenders: Indian Blessing at 9-5 so the overlay is 5-2, Zaftig is the 2nd choice, one of the few blemishes on IB's record at 5-2 overlay 4-1, and Intangaroo also has a sporting chance at fair odds of 5-1 overlay needs to be 8-1.
Note that my purpose is not to predict order of finish, but likelihood of winning. You'll have to come up with your own trifectas, but you can link these picks to the next races for pick 3's and 4's and, dare I say it, 6's.
1 Mile BC Juvenile Filly Turf
The Santa Anita Turf has been playing to speed for the Oak tree meet and I don't think anything will change that. Laragh, ridden by the crafty Edgar Prado, has all the speed here and is my favorite to win at fair odds of 2-1 and overlay odds of 3-1. I also like the G3 Canadian horse C Karma at 5-2 and 4-1 and the undefeated Maram at 4-1 and 6-1.
1 1/16 Mile BC Juvenile Filly
G1 Frizette winner Sky Diva is unbeaten in 2 outings. The running line comment for the Frizette reads, "Periodic hand urges". That means she has more in reserve if needed. Therefore I make her my fave @ 3-1 needing 9-2 for the overlay. Stardom Bound gets the home track advantage and is the 2nd choice @ 7-2 needing 5-1. C.S. Silk fired a monster fig. at Arlington Park last out and will be all elbow and asshole to the field with a repeat and is the 3rd choice @4-1 needing 6-1 for the overlay. I also have to throw in Dream Empress although I don't like the 12 post. Still Desormeaux is one of the best on turf and she is a G1 winner so @ 6-1 needing 9-1 would be worth a flyer.
1 1/4 BC Filly and Mare Turf
A couple of capable foreigners in here, but I'm staying with the good ol' US of A for this one. Wait A While no really I'll tell you later ; ) Wait a While has a G1 win over the course for the Pletcher-Velazquez connection. Last year you could take that combo to the bank. Lately... Still the horse has been nothing but consistent and fast and is my top choice at 3-1 needing 9-2. Dynaforce is the 2nd choice @7-2 needing 5-1, but if you believe in figure patterns some caution may in order as the read 94-103-93-103 suggesting DF may not bring her best this time. By the way, I use Brisnet's PP's as I've found the information and layout to be far superior to DRF. Mauralakana shows the opposite pattern to DF, so maybe I'll flip them, but now I have her at 9-2 needing 7-1. finally Forever Together has been showing good form at 7 different tracks for last 7 races. Give her 5-1 needing 8-1.
1 1/8 mile BC Ladies Classic
Who can beat Zenyatta, maybe the hard working Ginger Punch or the exotic Cocoa Beach, but I'm not betting on it. Zenyatta is even money for me needing 3-2 to bet her. Cocoa Beach gets the 2nd call @5-1 needing 8-1 and Ginger Punch gets 6-1 needing 9-1.
Now for the Boys, and some Girls
1 1/2 Mile BC Marathon
Sixties Icon has been having no trouble winning on the soggy Euro turf at this distance and I expect he'll transfer that form onto the artificial surface with no problem. I make 3-1 and will need 9-2. Delightful Kiss is the 2nd choice and I can think of no better ground saving type of rider than Calvin Borel to guide a horse in a race like this. Make him 7-2 needing 5-1. Zappa gets the home field advantage 9-2 need 7-1 and Big Booster is rested and seems capable of upsetting the field for a big price 6-1 and no less than 9-1.
Ok, I'm getting tired and I've been at this all day so here is the rest, no commentary just picks and odds.
6 1/2 F BC turf Sprint
Mr. Nightlinger 3-1 9-2
California Flag 3-1 9-2
Only Answer 5-1, 8-1
Fleeting Spirit 6-1, 9-1
1 Mile BC Dirt Mile
Well Armed 5-2, 4-1
Lewis Michael 4-1, 6-1
Surf Cat 5-1, 8-1
Pyro 6-1, 9-1
1 Mile BC Turf Mile
Daytona 3-1, 9-2
Whatthescript 7-2, 5-1
Precious Kitten 9-2, 7-1
Goldikova 5-1, 8-1
1 1/16 BC Juvenile
Bushranger 3-1, 9-2
Square Eddie 4-1, 6-1
Munnings 4-1, 6-1
Street Hero 6-1, 9-1
1 Mile BC Juvenile Turf
Bittel Road 8-5, 5-2
Grand Adventure 3-1, 9-2
Westphalia 9-2, 7-1
6F BC Sprint
Street Boss 3-1, 9-2
Black Seventeen 7-2, 5-1
Cost of Freedom 9-2, 7-1
Fabulous Strike 6-1, 9-1
1 1/2 Mile BC Turf
Conduit 2-1, 3-1
Soldier of Fortune 5-2, 4-1
Grand Courtier 4-1, 6-1
1 1/4 BC Classic
Curlin (who else) 8-5, 5-2
Go Between 6-1, 9-1
Casino Drive 6-1, 9-1
Duke of Marmalade 6-1, 9-1
I'll be in seat 52 of the Super Corral at in the Silks Simulcast Center at Gulfstream Racecourse tomorrow and Saturday if you want to come buy me a Woodford Reserve
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Humbled
The good thing about betting on horses is that it will keep you humble. Even though I've had an exceptionally good season at CRC this year, yesterday was not one of those days. I don't think I even got close on anything. The good news is there is always another day!
Right now I'm just saving my racing energy for the Breeder's Cup races coming up on Friday and Saturday. I will try to get the Brisnet past performances as early as I can after the Post Position draw on Tuesday. Hopefully I can get the early edition without the Morning Lines.
As I've said before, I make my own odds lines and I don't like to see other opinions because they influence my decisions. Also, I don't like the Morning Lines put out by whoever does them for Calder. The morning line is supposed to reflect how the line maker believes the collective will bet the race. At CRC, it seems the line maker is trying to predict the out come of the race with his lines as the list track choices always fall in line with the ML odds line.
I'm not particularly interested in tout sheets or paying for the picks of others. The few experiences I have had buying picks, as you can from Brisnet and many other sources, is that they don't seem to have anymore insight than I do. Therefore, I like to make my selections without being biased by outside influences. Just give me the data, baby.
That is not to say I am totally disinterested in the opinions of others, and if given the opportunity, I will try find out what others think. I particularly like Mark Cramer, the author of the C & X report. Most of his books are out of print, but if you can find one for a reasonable price I urge you to get it. Mark's approach to racing is a little sideways sometimes, but if you approach racing from the same angle as the collective, you will find it more difficult to find those over-looked longshots.
I am going to concentrate on the CRC races for Friday and Saturday and try to watch the BC races purely as a fan. However, if I have the time and the energy, I will try to post my selections for the BC races along with my suggested playing odds.
I also haven't decided where I am going to watch the races from. I love the Gulfstream simulcast facility with the HD flat screen TV's. But if it is anything like last year it will be crowded. I prefer to see live horses whenever I can, but while CRC does have simulcast racing, it has no real simulcast facility. It would really be nice if Twinspires, owners of CRC, would spend a little money and upgrade the place some. Perhaps if they thought a little more about their patron's comfort and less about squeezing every dime they can out of the place attendance would be better and they could attract a little higher class clientele.
Are you listening out there, Twinspires?
Right now I'm just saving my racing energy for the Breeder's Cup races coming up on Friday and Saturday. I will try to get the Brisnet past performances as early as I can after the Post Position draw on Tuesday. Hopefully I can get the early edition without the Morning Lines.
As I've said before, I make my own odds lines and I don't like to see other opinions because they influence my decisions. Also, I don't like the Morning Lines put out by whoever does them for Calder. The morning line is supposed to reflect how the line maker believes the collective will bet the race. At CRC, it seems the line maker is trying to predict the out come of the race with his lines as the list track choices always fall in line with the ML odds line.
I'm not particularly interested in tout sheets or paying for the picks of others. The few experiences I have had buying picks, as you can from Brisnet and many other sources, is that they don't seem to have anymore insight than I do. Therefore, I like to make my selections without being biased by outside influences. Just give me the data, baby.
That is not to say I am totally disinterested in the opinions of others, and if given the opportunity, I will try find out what others think. I particularly like Mark Cramer, the author of the C & X report. Most of his books are out of print, but if you can find one for a reasonable price I urge you to get it. Mark's approach to racing is a little sideways sometimes, but if you approach racing from the same angle as the collective, you will find it more difficult to find those over-looked longshots.
I am going to concentrate on the CRC races for Friday and Saturday and try to watch the BC races purely as a fan. However, if I have the time and the energy, I will try to post my selections for the BC races along with my suggested playing odds.
I also haven't decided where I am going to watch the races from. I love the Gulfstream simulcast facility with the HD flat screen TV's. But if it is anything like last year it will be crowded. I prefer to see live horses whenever I can, but while CRC does have simulcast racing, it has no real simulcast facility. It would really be nice if Twinspires, owners of CRC, would spend a little money and upgrade the place some. Perhaps if they thought a little more about their patron's comfort and less about squeezing every dime they can out of the place attendance would be better and they could attract a little higher class clientele.
Are you listening out there, Twinspires?
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Breeder's Cup Weekend
It's coming. BC Weekend is soon to be upon us. I don't know how I will ever make a regular contribution here and keep up with my handicapping. I can tell you this, I will probably handicap the Calder Race Course card, maybe Golden Gate or Belmont and just enjoy the BC races for what they are.
One reason is that I always find these races to be very difficult as all of the entries are legitimate contenders. I suspect even the great Curlin will have to work harder than usual to pull this one off. I'm much better at capping claimers than the high class racers and have the records to prove it.
Speaking of the great Curlin, he is sure to be a huge underlay. Do not bet him in the classic at anything less than 8 to 5. Even if you think he will win. After the Cup races I will have more time to discuss handicapping and my approach. For now I will leave you with this. I believe if I can make an odds line superior to the actual odds line created by the betting collective, I have a distinct advantage over the collective. More on that another time.
One reason is that I always find these races to be very difficult as all of the entries are legitimate contenders. I suspect even the great Curlin will have to work harder than usual to pull this one off. I'm much better at capping claimers than the high class racers and have the records to prove it.
Speaking of the great Curlin, he is sure to be a huge underlay. Do not bet him in the classic at anything less than 8 to 5. Even if you think he will win. After the Cup races I will have more time to discuss handicapping and my approach. For now I will leave you with this. I believe if I can make an odds line superior to the actual odds line created by the betting collective, I have a distinct advantage over the collective. More on that another time.
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