Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Thoroughbred Racing Books I Have Read

If you are anything like me, you have most likely read a lot of books about thoroughbred racing and how to play them. The following is a list of books I currently have sitting on my book shelf.



The Psychology of Thoroughbred Handicapping--Thomas Wilson



Money Secrets At The Racetrack--Barry Meadows



The Four Quarters of Horse Invcsting--Steve Fierro



Extreme Pace Handicapping; If You Doodle it They Will Come--Randy Giles



Six Secrets of Successful Bettors--Frank R. Scatoni and Peter T. Forntale



Bet With the Best 2; Longshots--Compilation



Exotic Betting--Steven Crist



Speed to Spare--Joe Cardello



Trainer Angles--Dean Keppler



The Winning Horseplayer--Andrew Beyer



Expert Handicapping; Winning Insights Into Betting Thoroughbreds--Dave Litfin



Beyer on Speed--Andrew Beyer



The Best of Thoroughbred Handicapping--Edited by James Quinn



Handicapping 101--Brad Free



Value Handicapping--Mark Cramer



Handicapping the Wall Street Way--Mark E. Ripple



The Handicapper's Condition Book--James Quinn



Books I know I have read, but for some reason are missing from my shelf



Picking Winners--Andrew Beyer



Betting Thoroughbreds: A Professional's Guide for The Horseplayer--Steve Davidowitz



Nearly every book up there has had something useful to offer, but the ones highlighted in red are the ones I feel I got the most value for. Picking Winners was the first book I ever bought. Way back in the 80's before Speed Figures were widely known about. That book certainly helped this fledgling horseplayer get an edge over the crowd at the Birmingham Turf Club, before they went to the dogs. It took a lot of effort to keep figures living in Atlanta and before the time of PC's. Everything was done by hand with a calculator and kept up to date in a 3-ring binder. This also required a crosstown bus ride twice a week to the only bookstore in Atlanta that carried the DRF so I could have the results charts from Birmingham. Oh the sacrifices we make for our passions.



Two books I've recently received from Amazon (Somebody stop me!) are Winning Moves: How To Win At Horse Racing--Prentice Mannetter and The Tuttle Way: Applied Methodologies on "How To" Interpret the Racing Form From A Winning Horseplayer--Joseph J. Tuttle.

Once I get around to reading them, I'll let you know what I think.

Now its off to Calder Race Course for another beautiful day of racing.

Friday, December 26, 2008

Father-Son Day

My son is home for winter break from the University of Miami, and I have somehow managed to con him into spending time with me at Calder today. He's not a racing fan. I think the pace of the game is too slow for today's generation. I think simulcasting helps liven the pace up with more races to play so long as you don't go over board. However, the problem is the occassional race goer who is not really into racing is probably not participating in the simulcast pools except for, perhaps, the big races like the Ky. Derby and such.

Anyhow, I think there are some playable races at CRC and Fairgrounds today and they will be the focus of my attention. I'll give my son $20.00 and all the advice he asks for and see if I can't school him for a greater appreciation of the sport.

Public handicapper.com is having there weekly contest today at Santa Anita's opener rather than the usual Saturday. The following are my picks for today's contest races.

6th Race the California Breeder's Championship for 2yo's bred in California


#6 Lordgivemealift
3-1
9-2
#2 Feisty Suances
7-2
5-1
#4 Unbridled Roman
9-2
7-1


#6 2yo races go to the swiftest and this need to lead type will either wire the field or collapse in a steaming heap of horse manure #2 has won all 3 efforts and gets better everytime #4 won debut race at near par speed and figures to be faster if can handle the stepped up competition #11 was favored to beat 3 other entrants in this race and gets a chance for redemption here.

The G3 Sir Beaufort Stakes


#12 Gio Ponti
2-1
3-1
#2 Sky Cape
9-2
7-1
#1 Liberian Freighter
5-1
8-1
#9 El Gato Malo
6-1
9-1



#12 Most accomplished on Turf of field, but the outside post could hurt #2 has won before coming off a layoff including out running the speedy #1 who has speed early but will probably be pressured by others #9 Tough spot for first on grass, but too good to ignore; however, remember Macho Again from last week. I don't know what that horse was doing on the turf, but he certainly didn't run the race of a well intended horse and the same may be true of El Gato Malo.

The Grade 1 Malibu Stakes


#7 Georgie Boy
3-1
9-2
#1 Into Mischief
7-2
5-1
#2 Colonel John
4-1
6-1
#3 Bob Black Jack
6-1
9-1
#7 A proven G1 winner at the distance and on this track with the highest fig for the distance #1 Another proven G1 winner at the distance who has never finished worst than 2nd #2 ML 2nd choice with loads of ability but has only raced once at this distance in breaking his maiden. #3 Another sprint specialist, but probably a notch below the other 3

MC25000 for 3yo and up


#5 Squire Trelawny
#13 Six Pack Man
#8 Mystification

I don't know why they chose this race for the contest. I don't play these races and didn't want to waste time handicapping it so I hijacked the picks from the leading editor's picks for contest purposes. I will personally pass this race.

Oh and FYI, Marty Wolfson has entered Golden Spikes in the Malibu. I personally don't think that Golden Spikes is a G1 calibur horse, but Marty has a horse entered at Calder today, so I will be looking to see if he makes an appearance in the paddock. If Marty isn't here I am going to guess that he is in Santa Anita. Remember, he is afraid of flying and only travels when extremely confident. If he is not here I'll be watching TVG closely for a shot of him at Santa Anita. A small wager on a long horse never hurt anyone.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Public Handicapper Picks

Not much time as I have holiday duties to attend to.

Just enough to say that yours truly was humbled yesterday. Not even my good ol' standby, The Fairgrounds could save me yesterday. That being said, use these selections at your own risk. Remember the first column are what I consider to be fair odds and the second is suggested wager odds.

First the Fairgrounds Races the Woodchopper Stakes and the Sugarbowl Stakes.


#6 My Boy Charlie
3-1
9-2
#8 Macho Again
7-2
5-1
#2 Jimmy Simms
4-1
6-1
#1 Evade
6-1
9-1


#6 Euro invader is a group 1 winner in France and is one for one on the FG turf and appears to be peaking at the right time here. #8 is the North American class of this race, but has never run in anger over the sod; however workout line shows some efforts at Saratoga in Aug so can't be ignored. #2 is an improving 3yo who just missed in a G3 effort last out. The slightly shorter distance may make the difference. #1 any time Leparoux is on the grass his mount deserves respect and the horse does seem to be getting better, but this will be his first outing against some really strong competitors take only at long odds.


#4 Beer Pong
3-1
9-2
#8 Screen Your Friend
7-2
5-1
#7 Big Push
9-2
7-1
#9 Ask Joe
5-1
8-1


#4 Has preferred PP with Hi% Rider and Trainer and gets slight nod in a highly contentious race. #8 G3 winner back in July should move forward of last effort. #7 Held lead all the way to the end in Restricted Fl Bred race at Calder shortens up a furlong here #9 Has not run a bad race in 3 outings and may be as good as any here.

The Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate Fields


#3 Cut The Check
3-1
9-2
#4 Adriatic Moon
7-2
5-1
#5 Merus Miami
9-2
7-1
#7 Run It
5-1
8-1


#3 Speedster strectching out is classic play gets the first choice in another contentious race. #4 Gets leading rider R Baze, so you can probably count on this one being severely underlaid, but just in case. #5 I like the way this one came from off the pace in debut, unusual for a 2 yo, and the ability to be rated may be useful again. Also eligible to improve speed in 2nd effort. #7 2 time winner of Alw starter races could be a tough customer.

And finally the Cash Call Futurity from Hollywood


#11 Mr. Rod
3-1
9-2
#5 Pioneerof the Nile
7-2
5-1
#10 Bittel Road
9-2
7-1
#4 Axel Foley
6-1
9-1


#11 has the speed on a speed favoring track and is going turf to fake dirt to boot. #5 comes off a decent effort at the Breeder's cup and should be charging late. #10 Just missed to the top choice last out and would not be a shocker. #4 probably would be a minor shocker, but the British shipper does get first lasix and will likely be over looked by the crowd. Worth a flyer at a big price.

That's it for today. Now out to fight the holiday mob. Hopefully I'll make it back in time to check out my luck on TVG.

Results,

Posted after ninth race at FG: So far bad day for PH standings but good day for bankroll.

No play in the 8th race where the 3rd pick Jimmy Simms managed to avoid the chaos coming down the stretch and prevail.

I knew the 9th was wide open, my favorite, Beer Pong, was a scratch, so the chosen winner, by default was Screen Your Friend. The 7 horse, Big Push was overbet but both Screen Your Friend and my now 3rd choice Ask Joe went off at double figure odds. I split the bet between them. Something you can profitably do according to Steve Fierro with high odds contenders. Screen Your Friend was no where to be found. Ask Joe overcame a very game Big Push and Valid Stripes to prevail by a nose paying $24.80. I hope you had it.

The Cash Call futurity was won by Pioneerof the Nile who became my default choice when Mr. Rob was scratched. Pioneerof the Nile showed a lot of heart in holding off I Want Revenge down the stretch to give me a winner in the PH contest. However, my huckleberry for the dough in this race was Bittel Road. Bittel Road looked like he might make a move around the 3/4 pole but then flattened out and was never a real factor.

The Gold Rush Futurity at Golden Gate was another terrific race. The PH choice Cut the Check tracked the pace for most of the race but lacked energy to close the deal in the stretch. My money wound up on Adriatic Moon who was looking good for a while in the stretch, but Merus Miami took over convincingly at the end to win by a length. And you thought I just had him as a contender as a hunch bet because of the name.

So in the end, one chalky win out of 4 picks for the PH contest and one 11-1 win bet out of 3 for real money. I'll take the 11-1 win bet over the former any day.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Quality Time

Your's truly took the weekend off from racing to spend some quality time at the beach with the Mrs. this past weekend. Well, not entirely as I did find time to pick two of four winners in the Publichandicappers.com Winter of our Discontent contest.


Now some of you Northern types may laugh at this, but the weather really did not cooperate for a weekend at the beach. The sky was mostly overcast and the temperature was a chilly low 70 something due to the constant gale force wind coming off of the cool ocean water.


Living on the edge of the Everglades does offer some exciting encounters with wild-life now and then. Maybe some day I will tell you of my close encounter with a rather pissed-off gator while fishing. The sub-tropical climate is also hospitable to a wide variety of imported species such as this 5-foot Iguana I met while on my lunch break at work yesterday. Today he was impressively showing off his brilliant orange throat, but my hands were full and I was running late and couldn't snap a picture.


The reflection you see in the window is me trying ever so carefully to get close enough to get a good picture without scaring the critter away. While they look quite fierce, they are really quite shy and would rather run than fight. On cooler winter days, it is really neat to see them sunning themselves next to the canal as I drive home on the turnpike.
Ok enough of this. I have Friday off and I'm going to the races. I have Calder, the Fairgrounds (where I've been doing very well so far this season), and Golden Gate to dig into. If your good, maybe I'll post my picks for this week's Winter of Discontent contest

Monday, December 8, 2008

Wha' Happened?

As I'm sure you know by now, the trainer pattern I was so excited about did not pan out on Saturday. I received a private e-mail regarding the post gist of which was to tell me there may be a flaw in my reasoning. I asked the mailer for permission to publish the e-mail without revealing the writer's name and my response, but so far I have had no answer to my request. Now not that I am so impatient that I can't wait for permission, but since the race was already two days ago I thought I better go with it without permission before the topic loses it's currency.

First for the race itself. Silver Tree settled into a stalking position behind the long shot pacesetter and so the race went until they hit the stretch when Spice Route and Soldier's Dancer kicked into gear and gave a great duel down the stretch with Spice Route prevailing by a head bob. Silver Tree faded to 6th.

The gist of the writer's letter was to make me aware that Edgar Prado was riding in Japan this past weekend and was not available for the mount at Calder. It is true that I was not aware of Edgar's whereabout's, so perhaps there is a point that the naming of Desormeaux was not part of some master-plan on Bill Mott's part but simply an act of necessity and coincidence as Prado was not going to be available for the mount. Point well taken.

What still remained however was the pattern of running Silver Tree in a non-graded stakes conditioner prior to winning a graded stakes race. All things considered, I still don't think it was a bad play though I did like Spice Route's chances a lot and am quite familiar with Soldier's Dancer's attributes as well.

Now, without further adieu, my response.

First thanks for reading my posts and sending me a note. I love to know that others are actually reading what I put up. I wasn't aware that Edgar was in Japan, but it wouldn't have mattered to my analysis as I was just trying to point out a pattern that I observed that might be meaningful that others may not have observed.

In this case Silver Tree went off at 5 to 1 which was probably about right considering the competition. Silver Tree tracked the pacesetter and was in contention most of the race, except for the part that mattered most and finished 6th. Spice Route, another horse I really liked and probably would have played if not for the pattern observation with Silver Tree, barely nosed out the favorite Soldier's Dancer.

However, this is what I love most about racing. Everything is out there in front of you to be seen and, in reality, there are very few secrets. In my younger days I was an expert chess player and spent much of my time playing tournaments, and I see a lot of analogies to racing as every race or series of races can be considered tournaments in which you can enter or not enter as you see fit. It is a chance to match wits, skill, and even luck against thousands of others.

In many ways racing may even be more analogous to backgammon, another game I used to play pretty well. In backgammon, over a long series of games the better player will prevail; however, in any given game the worst player in the world may beat the world's best.

Long story short. I played Silver Tree to win and underneath Spice Route and Soldier's Dancer in the exacta and it didn't work out for me today. It is possible I overestimated the strength of the pattern, another thing I love is the post-mortem analysis. But I don't consider the play a mistake so much as a learning experience. A mistake is playing a short-priced underlay like I did in another race, one I don't make very often, just because I was convinced it couldn't lose, it could.

Regarding Edgar Prado. Edgar Prado is certainly a great rider and I'll be seeing a lot of him at Gulfstream in a few weeks. He's one of those riders you're always to happy to have on your choice and fear if he's on another.

Regards
Jeff

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Trainer Patterns

The Grade 3 Tropical Turf Handicap is being run at Calder Race course. The weather is going to be dry with temperatures in the low 80's. The turf should be firm.

If you are a beliver in trainer patterns, I have a play for you today.

On July 15, 2007 at Delaware, this horse ran in the Crodney 200k and won under Edgar Prado.
On August 5, 2007 at Saratoga, this horse ran in 4strdavh-G2 and won under Kent Desormeaux.

On April 5 of the year at Tampa, this horse finished 2nd in a State-bred restricted 85k stakes under a rider I'm not familiar with Pznnsky, N. E. I guess Edgar doesn't ride in Tampa.
On April 27 at the Big A the horse won the Ftmarchy-G3 under Edgar Prado.

Back in Delaware on July 13, the horse finished 2nd in the Crodney under E.P. again.
Then on August 3 at Monmouth the horse won the Oceanport G3 under, guess who, Desormeaux.

Most recently, coming off a layoff on November 8 here at Calder the horse finished 4th under, once again, Edgar Prado. Now in the aforementioned G3, who should show up to ride him but good ol' Kent Desormeaux.

The trainer who has orchestrated this is Bill Mott. The horse is Silver Tree.

I know where I'm putting my money this race.