Barbaro's full brother, Nicanor makes his racing debut at Gulfstream Park today in the 8th race of the day. I'll be there and give you a full report with pictures and all after the race. Nicanor is trained by Michael Matz and will be ridden by Edgar Prado.
Today is the last day of the Public handicappers Winter of our Discontent contest. Two of the races are at GP, the G3 Holy Bull and the G1 Donn Handicap. I didn't have time to do the other two races this week, but here is my analysis of the two big races at GP today.
G3 Holy Bull Stakes
#2 Danger To Society
3-1
9-2
#10 West Side Bernie
4-1
6-1
#11 Beethoven
4-1
6-1
#8 Idol Maker
6-1
9-1
#2 Impressive Allowance winner gets favorable post draw. #10 2yo G3 winner will be hampered by outside post position #11 Another 2yo G2 winner will be hampered by the extreme outside post position. #8 Most impressive of the rest with Pletcher/Velasquez combo, but still has to deal with pp8. Outside post positions at 9 furlongs are very difficult from 8 out.
G1 Donn Handicap
#2 Albertus Maximus
8-5
5-2
#10 Einstein
6-1
9-1
#3 Anak Nakai
6-1
9-1
#7 Arson Squad
6-1
9-1
#2 Along with Einstein, clearly the best but gets the luck of the PP draw. Outside post diminishes the chances of a great horse and Pitts is only 5% off layoff #3 Gets much improved post from the Hal's Hope race and should look better. #7 G2 winner is 3 for 5 at the distance. Dutrow is 25% off layoff.
I'll see you later tonight or tomorrow with some pictures of Barbaro's baby brother
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Sunshine Millions Lessons Learned
Nobody wins everyday, and anyone who claims to is a prevaricator. I have played the races on 12 days so far this year. I have had 6 winning days and 6 losing days. Yesterday was a losing day. I don't mind losing days so much, because there is always something to be learned from the losses. The following is what I learned yesterday.
1. If Todd Pletcher has a first time starter that cost 3.7 million at auction, Dunkirk, the horse is automatically a contender. The following description of Dunkirk's race comes straight from the results chart, "DUNKIRK rated after breaking slowly, was forced wait [sic] for room in behind a wall of horses on the turn, angled six wide at the top of the stretch, rallied to gain command inside the eight pole, then drew away."
While watching the race and keeping an eye on the horse everyone was talking about, I thought there was no way it was going to win the race. Then Dunkirk simply turned on the after-burners in that final furlong. It wasn't even close winning by an easy 5 3/4 length. Imagine if the trip for Dunkirk had been less troubled. Dunkirk paid 5.40 to win.
Todd Pletcher looking good and feeling good after Dunkirk's romp
2. Richard Dutrow is lethal 1st time with a horse. Remember that question I asked about This One's For Phil? Even though Phil was going Turf to Dirt and turning back in distance after leading the first two calls, one of my favorite angles, I still didn't think he was good enough to win, which he did paying $25.40.
Dutrow is 32% with a +0.40 ROI 1st time with a horse. This horse had two strong angles going for it that I ignored completely.
I'm sure there is more to learn, and I'll share them with you as the post mortem progresses.
As for my prognostications, 2 winners out of 4, but I'm not especially proud of that record. I totally whiffed on the Dash thanks to Phil.
In the Filly and Mare Turf at Gulfstream, Bel Air Sizzle decided she wasn't ready to go when they opened the gate spotting the field, at least, a full second head start. It's amazing she didn't finish dead last. Also the anticipated speed duel never materialized as the front-runners set reasonable fractions.
I did, at least manage to have the winners of the Santa Anita races I covered. I played Presious Passion to win in the Turf Race and Elvis Trujillo gave me a brilliant ride and PP did his best to hold 2nd giving me the consolation exacta prize.
I didn't see the 8th race, but know Georgie Boy took the honors although had I played the race I would have been on Sok Sok who did not do as well.
More later
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Sunshine Millions
Ok, apparently nobody read last post or nobody has any insight they are interested in sharing, so I'll press on.
Today is the Sunshine Millions day when California and Florida breds criss-cross the country for some pretty decent prize money.
Public Handicapper http://www.publichandicapper.com/ has chosen 4 of these races, 2 from GP and 2 from SA, as the contest races for this week. So here we go.
Gulfstream Park first
The 7th race on the card is the 250k Sunshine Million Dash for 3 year olds going 6 furlongs
Top selection is Marty Wolfson's You Luckie Mann. Breaking from the outside 11th post, he has the tactical ability to settle into a good spot. Look for You Luckie Mann to move forward in this 2nd off Layoff race.
The 2nd choice is Kelly Leak who will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux for Michael Machowsky. KL is coming off a good turf effort and won the G2 Best Pal at Del Mar.
Had to kind of stretch to find 3rd and 4th contenders in what I think is a fairly thin field but finally settled on Backbackbackgone and Southern Exchange on the inside posts.
The selections and odds line shape up like this.
#11 You Lucky Mann: 3-1 fair odds, 9-2 overlay odds
#7 Kelly Leak: 7-2 fair odds, 5-1 overlay odds
#2 Backbackbackgone: 4-1 fair odds, 6-1 overlay odds
#1 Southern Exchange: 6-1 fair odds, 9-1 overlay odds
The 8th race is the 500k Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf Stakes for 4yo and up.
Wild Promises, winner 11 time in 16 tries returns to the crosstown track after having her way at Calder Race course a month ago. However, this time may be different as this is a speed filled race and a turf course that is not particularly friendly to early speed. If she could get the lead all to herself, I'd make her the favorite, but since the fight for the early lead is going to be contentious, I think the race sets up for a closer like Bel Air Sizzle.
Bel Air Sizzle will have the lovely Chantal Sutherland (sorry for the blatant sexism, but it really didn't influence my decision, really) aboard and has come close in a couple of G2 races at Del Mar and Hollywood.
Still have to respect Wild Promises who I make to be the 2nd choice. The third choice is a pressing type runner, so we have the gamut of running styles covered here, Zee Zee trained by Richard Dutrow and ridden by Robbie Albarado. May the best running style win.
#8 Bel Air Sizzle: 9-5 fair odds, 3-1 overlay odds
#2 Wild Promises: 5-2 fair odds, 4-1 overlay odds
#5 Zee Zee overlay odds: 5-1 fair odds, 8-1 overlay odds
Moving over to the left coast.
The 500k Sunshine Millions Turf Stakes for 4 year olds and up at a mile and an eigth.
Another heavy early pace rest that should set up well for the closing Soldier's Dancer. A Grade 3 winner for David Vivian has Rafael Bejarano in the irons. We do have to respect some of the speed horses as one never knows how these races actually develop until they get run. That's why some call this gambling. Carla Gaines Lucky J. H. with Victor Espinoza on board looks impressive and will be stretching out after a couple of good sprint efforts. Presious Passion is another early speedster who has demonstrated that distance is not an issue. Elvis Trujillo (he is an up and comer you'll be hearing alot from in the next few years) gets the mount. And finally, back to another closer, mostly because on grass anything can happen and so much depends on the trip and a little bit of racing luck, don't be completely shocked if Icy Atlantic shows up in the winner's circle, I won't be.
#8 Soldier's Dancer: 3-1 fair odds, 9-2 overlay odds
#10 Lucky J. H.: 7-2 fair odds, 5-1 overlay odds
#3 Presious Passion: 9-2 fair odds, 7-1 overlay odds
#7 Icy Atlantic: 6-1 fair odds, 9-1 overlay odds
Finally, the 300k Sunshine Millions Sprint for 4 year olds and up at 6 furlongs
When I look at races like this the first thing I always look for is who has won Graded Stakes events, which, I guess, makes class one of my primary considerations. That's how I land on Georgie Boy as my number one for this race. Plus, it always seems that Garrett Gomez is winning these kinds of races. In Summation is another deserving respect. Clement Christophe always seems to have his horses ready and Rafael Bejarano doesn't have to take a back seat to anyone. Sok Sok is trained by Steve Asmussen who is bringing his primary jockey Sean Bridgmohan out from the Fair Grounds for this race. I remember last year at GP, I think it was SS Millions day, Asmussen had a horse running in a big race that was being relatively ignored at 5-1 and thinking,"This horse really shouldn't be that high in the odds." I recommended the horse to my wife, but stayed off it myself. She made a nice exacta with the Asmussen horse on top. Something similar may happen here. Finally, I can't forget my local CRC runner Yesbyjimminy who has done just about everything he can at Calder. Main knocks on him will be how well does he travel and how well does he take to the synthetic track. Could be a surprise.
#7 Georgie Boy
3-1 fair odds
9-2 overlay odds
#9 In Summation
7-2 fair odds
5-1 overlay odds
#5 Sok Sok
4-1 fair odds
6-1 overlay odds
#11 Yesbyjimminy
6-1 fair odds
9-1 overlay odds
That's it for today folks. Let me know if any of this was helpful. Good Luck.
Oh by the way the next book review will be Joseph J. Tuttle's The Tuttle Way: Applied Methodologies on "How To" Interpret the Racing Form From A Winning Horseplayer. You won't want to miss it, I promise
Today is the Sunshine Millions day when California and Florida breds criss-cross the country for some pretty decent prize money.
Public Handicapper http://www.publichandicapper.com/ has chosen 4 of these races, 2 from GP and 2 from SA, as the contest races for this week. So here we go.
Gulfstream Park first
The 7th race on the card is the 250k Sunshine Million Dash for 3 year olds going 6 furlongs
Top selection is Marty Wolfson's You Luckie Mann. Breaking from the outside 11th post, he has the tactical ability to settle into a good spot. Look for You Luckie Mann to move forward in this 2nd off Layoff race.
The 2nd choice is Kelly Leak who will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux for Michael Machowsky. KL is coming off a good turf effort and won the G2 Best Pal at Del Mar.
Had to kind of stretch to find 3rd and 4th contenders in what I think is a fairly thin field but finally settled on Backbackbackgone and Southern Exchange on the inside posts.
The selections and odds line shape up like this.
#11 You Lucky Mann: 3-1 fair odds, 9-2 overlay odds
#7 Kelly Leak: 7-2 fair odds, 5-1 overlay odds
#2 Backbackbackgone: 4-1 fair odds, 6-1 overlay odds
#1 Southern Exchange: 6-1 fair odds, 9-1 overlay odds
The 8th race is the 500k Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf Stakes for 4yo and up.
Wild Promises, winner 11 time in 16 tries returns to the crosstown track after having her way at Calder Race course a month ago. However, this time may be different as this is a speed filled race and a turf course that is not particularly friendly to early speed. If she could get the lead all to herself, I'd make her the favorite, but since the fight for the early lead is going to be contentious, I think the race sets up for a closer like Bel Air Sizzle.
Bel Air Sizzle will have the lovely Chantal Sutherland (sorry for the blatant sexism, but it really didn't influence my decision, really) aboard and has come close in a couple of G2 races at Del Mar and Hollywood.
Still have to respect Wild Promises who I make to be the 2nd choice. The third choice is a pressing type runner, so we have the gamut of running styles covered here, Zee Zee trained by Richard Dutrow and ridden by Robbie Albarado. May the best running style win.
#8 Bel Air Sizzle: 9-5 fair odds, 3-1 overlay odds
#2 Wild Promises: 5-2 fair odds, 4-1 overlay odds
#5 Zee Zee overlay odds: 5-1 fair odds, 8-1 overlay odds
Moving over to the left coast.
The 500k Sunshine Millions Turf Stakes for 4 year olds and up at a mile and an eigth.
Another heavy early pace rest that should set up well for the closing Soldier's Dancer. A Grade 3 winner for David Vivian has Rafael Bejarano in the irons. We do have to respect some of the speed horses as one never knows how these races actually develop until they get run. That's why some call this gambling. Carla Gaines Lucky J. H. with Victor Espinoza on board looks impressive and will be stretching out after a couple of good sprint efforts. Presious Passion is another early speedster who has demonstrated that distance is not an issue. Elvis Trujillo (he is an up and comer you'll be hearing alot from in the next few years) gets the mount. And finally, back to another closer, mostly because on grass anything can happen and so much depends on the trip and a little bit of racing luck, don't be completely shocked if Icy Atlantic shows up in the winner's circle, I won't be.
#8 Soldier's Dancer: 3-1 fair odds, 9-2 overlay odds
#10 Lucky J. H.: 7-2 fair odds, 5-1 overlay odds
#3 Presious Passion: 9-2 fair odds, 7-1 overlay odds
#7 Icy Atlantic: 6-1 fair odds, 9-1 overlay odds
Finally, the 300k Sunshine Millions Sprint for 4 year olds and up at 6 furlongs
When I look at races like this the first thing I always look for is who has won Graded Stakes events, which, I guess, makes class one of my primary considerations. That's how I land on Georgie Boy as my number one for this race. Plus, it always seems that Garrett Gomez is winning these kinds of races. In Summation is another deserving respect. Clement Christophe always seems to have his horses ready and Rafael Bejarano doesn't have to take a back seat to anyone. Sok Sok is trained by Steve Asmussen who is bringing his primary jockey Sean Bridgmohan out from the Fair Grounds for this race. I remember last year at GP, I think it was SS Millions day, Asmussen had a horse running in a big race that was being relatively ignored at 5-1 and thinking,"This horse really shouldn't be that high in the odds." I recommended the horse to my wife, but stayed off it myself. She made a nice exacta with the Asmussen horse on top. Something similar may happen here. Finally, I can't forget my local CRC runner Yesbyjimminy who has done just about everything he can at Calder. Main knocks on him will be how well does he travel and how well does he take to the synthetic track. Could be a surprise.
#7 Georgie Boy
3-1 fair odds
9-2 overlay odds
#9 In Summation
7-2 fair odds
5-1 overlay odds
#5 Sok Sok
4-1 fair odds
6-1 overlay odds
#11 Yesbyjimminy
6-1 fair odds
9-1 overlay odds
That's it for today folks. Let me know if any of this was helpful. Good Luck.
Oh by the way the next book review will be Joseph J. Tuttle's The Tuttle Way: Applied Methodologies on "How To" Interpret the Racing Form From A Winning Horseplayer. You won't want to miss it, I promise
Friday, January 23, 2009
This One's For Phil
Just a short one as I'm currently going through tomorrow's card for Gulfstream Park. The 7th race is 250k Sunshine Millions Dash. There is one horse in the race, This One's For Phil. Phil used to be trained by Kathleen O'Connell, a more than competent local trainer who does most of her racing at Calder and Tampa Bay with an occasional entry at GP.
I noticed that Phil has moved over to Richard Dutrow's barn. No sale as the owner is the same. No doubt, the owner thinks Phil may be too big for the limited S. Florida scene. What am I to make of this? If anyone out there knows any of the players in this scenario and can shed a little light on the topic, I'd be much obliged. If I see Ms. O'Connell tomorrow I'll ask her myself, but she'll probably be busy at Tampa.
I noticed that Phil has moved over to Richard Dutrow's barn. No sale as the owner is the same. No doubt, the owner thinks Phil may be too big for the limited S. Florida scene. What am I to make of this? If anyone out there knows any of the players in this scenario and can shed a little light on the topic, I'd be much obliged. If I see Ms. O'Connell tomorrow I'll ask her myself, but she'll probably be busy at Tampa.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Book Review: Winning Moves: How To Win At Horse Racing
Welcome back to my little corner of the internet. I would have posted sooner. In fact I wasted several valuable hours writing an article last week about how the 11-1 Kiss The Kid was completely over looked in the Fort Lauderdale Handicap last week. Unfortunately, it sounded more like I was patting myself on the back for the excellent handicapping job I did in that race than the actual point I was trying to make, so I abandoned the project altogether.
This week I intend to review a relatively recent book release by Prentice Mannetter entitled Winning Moves: How To Win At Horse Racing.
The first question to ask is, who is Prentice Mannetter and why would you buy a book from him purporting to tell you about how to win at horse racing? I'm afraid there is not much to reveal about that. The author doesn't write much about himself personally except to say he is not a "professional" horse player. That statement alone doesn't bother me as I think there are alot of "professional" horse players out there who seem to make lots of income by means other than wagering on horses. However many of these professionals do at least keep their sidelines in the realm of thoroughbred racing. The author does not elaborate on what his actual profession is. A Google search revealed nothing.
To the book itself. The author opens with a discussion of catalysts and changes. For those of you not familiar with what a catalyst actually is, it can be defined as an agent that facilitates change in another object without actually altering itself. Biologically, enzymes can be considered catalysts as they facilitate chemical reactions that are necessary for us to maintain our current state of animation.
Then the author lists and discusses various "catalysts" he believes will effect the outcome of a race. I use the term "catalysts" advisedly as I don't believe the author properly applies the definition, but this is mere semantics and, really, a minor quibble. What the author really describes are existing traits of the horse such as how fast can it run, or changes such as claims, class drops, equipment changes, etc. There is nothing really new here. In fact, the book started to remind me alot of "The One-Minute Handicapper" by Frank DiTondo, except the author didn't provide the neat charts and dry erase boards and markers.
Next the author takes us through and handicaps a card using the methodology. The first thing the author does is separate contenders from non-contenders using speed figures. Already now I have parted ways with the author. While it is my belief that speed figures can be useful, I don't feel that speed figures can simply be taken at face value as there are many factors in racing that can effect how fast a horse actually runs in a given race. Automatically eliminating horses because they don't meet a criteria such as speed figures can take you off of many live horses at long prices.
The author chooses to go through the Jan. 19, 2008 Fairgrounds card, wins a few, loses a few, and some get rained out. You, dear reader, can take that for what its worth as even the author admits that you've never seen any book writer demonstrate a losing day using his method. I have to say, after the first race or two, my eyes started to glaze over. I noted on the notes page that was conveniently provided that the author didn't seem to take into account the surface or track conditions that the figures were acquired on, nor did he mention the current condition of the Fair Grounds track. However I did note that the turf races had been moved to dirt possibly implying that these races were run on an off track. Long story short, the gist of the method seemed to be tallying up the changes, and the horses with the most changes are the choices. Somehow, that seems to be just a little too simplistic to handicap something as complex as a horse race.
Next the author takes us on a discussion of race shapes and how to use Quirin figures to determine the probable front runners, pressers, stalkers, and closers. He discusses various strategies to use depending on how the horses sort out based on the Q figs. (Side note: For those of you who use the DRF, Q figs are not provided and you have to calculate them yourselves. The Brisnet PP's do provide the Q figs.) The information provided in this chapter will be useful to new handicappers but doesn't reveal anything new to experienced handicappers who are already well familiar with the effects speed duels, or a loose on the lead horse can have on a race.
After the race shape interlude, its back to handicapping more races from other tracks for January 19 and more of the same. Eventually I just had to skip ahead to the next chapter where the author provides some advice on record keeping and capital preservation.
To the author's credit, the importance to record keeping and money management to the serious horseplayer are often given short shrift in many handicapping books. Of course, if one is not a serious horseplayer, why worry about long-term results at the races if you only go on Derby day. Unfortunately, here the author tells you that record keeping and capital preservation are important but not much more. In other words, he gives short shrift to the topic here, but does discuss it in more detail later.
Next there is the plug for the computer program at winmoneybetting.com. (which is currently not avaiable according to the web-site). The plug acts as a kind of intermission to part 2 of the book called Winning moves.
In this section of the book we are given betting strategies and advice. Told we need to find the right handicapping method best fitting our own personal strengths and weaknesses, and why people lose. Then we are treated "Handicapping General" which offers a potpourri of racing generalisms, and "Money Management" where the author gives a few more details on methods of capital preservation.
The author discusses in particular the Martingale system and why it is not a particularly good method of capital preservation. He discusses the pros and cons of using a simple percentage of your bank roll (which is my personal method due to its simplicity), and the advantages and disadvantages of the Kelly and 1/2 Kelly systems (which I've tried but gave up on because I was spending so much time trying to calculate what my proper bet would be I couldn't focus on anything else). And probably a few more that I can't really recall because by this time he was starting to get repetitive, and I was beginning to doze off from lack of interest.
In summary, this is not a book I can recommend. The organization of the book seems to be somewhat chaotic as the author flits about from topic to topic in a seemingly random manner. While the author does cover a broad swath of handicapping topics, he really doesn't offer anything new to the discussion, and these topics have already been covered better and in more detail by other authors. I can't even recommend the actual handicapping section for beginners because I think they will treat it as a mechanical, no-brainer method without bothering with the nuances that the author does try to elaborate on in some parts of the book.
If I have to give the book a rating in horsey terms, I'd have to say that it finished up the track and out of the money for me.
No Public Handicapper picks this week as I went to the Panthers game (hockey) last night. However, I can provide some insight on the G3 MisterProspector Hdcp from Gulfstream Park.
If you like the Horse for course angle the #1 Kelly's Landing 3 for 6 and 5 for 6 ITM @ GP should impress. But the 8 year old won only one race in 2008, and OC80kN1Y while not showing the form necessary to win against stakes graded racers. In addition, the rail post offers a slight disadvantage at the 6f distance. I think Kelly's Landing best days are behind him and Leparoux can't turn back time.
#2 Granizo makes North American debut and has won 6 of 7 in Brazil. But the Chalk Eating Weasel is not impressed by life-time earnings of 13k and change and will pass on this one.
#3 How's Your Halo (remember him) is a good hard working horse but all of his wins have come within the friendly confines of Calder Race Course. Now this race is only a 15 minute drive across town. How's Your Halo did finish 2nd to Benny the Bull, no shame there. But I don't think he is a legitimate win candidate here. Definitely could finish in the money though so don't ignore entirely.
#4 Black Seventeen is my Chalk Eating Huckleberry for this race. Everyone seems to focus on his subpar Breeder's cup performance and seem to forget about the G1 Vosburgh win the race before. Jeebus! There are alot of horses who have, shall we say, less than stellar running lines from the Breeder's Cup races, and some of them have since won! After taking a break for November and December Black Seventeen came back and finished 3rd in a G3 race at Santa Anita. Black Seventeen is the only horse Brian Koriner will have run at GP today or this season so far. Black Seventeen is the only horse C. L. Potts is riding today. I don't think they are making the trip for the waters, and they're not eligible for the Fountain of Youth (a little Casablanca and Florida humor for you there). I've seen this pattern before. Greg Gilchrist and A.T. Gryder made the same trip successfully for the G3 My Charmer Hdcp at Calder with Wild promises a month ago.
BS may be the favorite this race, but may not be as there are a couple of "Johnny come lately's" with flashy speed figures yet to be discussed.
#5 Ikigai is the Marty Wolfson entry. This speedy horse will most certainly go to the lead, but so far has not demonstrated the ability to maintain that speed beyond 5 1/2 furlongs. Still dangerous if he's learned to relax on the lead.
#6 He's So Chic is the Weasel's number 2 contender and is one of those flashy speed figure horses we've spoken of. He ran a blistering 108 (and its not his only triple digit effort) in a minor stakes finishing in 2nd. Jason Servis wins 27% of the time and Jose Lezcano has been having a very good meet so far. The only knock is lack of Graded Stakes experience. That may no longer be a knock after today.
#7 Rollers had 4 consecutive triple digit speed figures before faltering on a muddy Aqueduct track last out. Rollers is another making his Graded stakes debut, but he has won a pricey (250k) non-graded affair at Philadelphia. Barclay Tagg is 22% trainer for Graded Stakes, so he knows how to get them ready. In addition, I have a growing respect for Alan Garcia, so I'm expecting a good effort from Rollers as my #3 contender. Oh, I almost forgot to mention that my main knock against Rollers is that his best races seem to those that are restricted to NY state breds, so I will only use him at a high price as this is one of those little nuances that can have effects on speed figures (level of competition).
That's it for today. Good Luck
This week I intend to review a relatively recent book release by Prentice Mannetter entitled Winning Moves: How To Win At Horse Racing.
The first question to ask is, who is Prentice Mannetter and why would you buy a book from him purporting to tell you about how to win at horse racing? I'm afraid there is not much to reveal about that. The author doesn't write much about himself personally except to say he is not a "professional" horse player. That statement alone doesn't bother me as I think there are alot of "professional" horse players out there who seem to make lots of income by means other than wagering on horses. However many of these professionals do at least keep their sidelines in the realm of thoroughbred racing. The author does not elaborate on what his actual profession is. A Google search revealed nothing.
To the book itself. The author opens with a discussion of catalysts and changes. For those of you not familiar with what a catalyst actually is, it can be defined as an agent that facilitates change in another object without actually altering itself. Biologically, enzymes can be considered catalysts as they facilitate chemical reactions that are necessary for us to maintain our current state of animation.
Then the author lists and discusses various "catalysts" he believes will effect the outcome of a race. I use the term "catalysts" advisedly as I don't believe the author properly applies the definition, but this is mere semantics and, really, a minor quibble. What the author really describes are existing traits of the horse such as how fast can it run, or changes such as claims, class drops, equipment changes, etc. There is nothing really new here. In fact, the book started to remind me alot of "The One-Minute Handicapper" by Frank DiTondo, except the author didn't provide the neat charts and dry erase boards and markers.
Next the author takes us through and handicaps a card using the methodology. The first thing the author does is separate contenders from non-contenders using speed figures. Already now I have parted ways with the author. While it is my belief that speed figures can be useful, I don't feel that speed figures can simply be taken at face value as there are many factors in racing that can effect how fast a horse actually runs in a given race. Automatically eliminating horses because they don't meet a criteria such as speed figures can take you off of many live horses at long prices.
The author chooses to go through the Jan. 19, 2008 Fairgrounds card, wins a few, loses a few, and some get rained out. You, dear reader, can take that for what its worth as even the author admits that you've never seen any book writer demonstrate a losing day using his method. I have to say, after the first race or two, my eyes started to glaze over. I noted on the notes page that was conveniently provided that the author didn't seem to take into account the surface or track conditions that the figures were acquired on, nor did he mention the current condition of the Fair Grounds track. However I did note that the turf races had been moved to dirt possibly implying that these races were run on an off track. Long story short, the gist of the method seemed to be tallying up the changes, and the horses with the most changes are the choices. Somehow, that seems to be just a little too simplistic to handicap something as complex as a horse race.
Next the author takes us on a discussion of race shapes and how to use Quirin figures to determine the probable front runners, pressers, stalkers, and closers. He discusses various strategies to use depending on how the horses sort out based on the Q figs. (Side note: For those of you who use the DRF, Q figs are not provided and you have to calculate them yourselves. The Brisnet PP's do provide the Q figs.) The information provided in this chapter will be useful to new handicappers but doesn't reveal anything new to experienced handicappers who are already well familiar with the effects speed duels, or a loose on the lead horse can have on a race.
After the race shape interlude, its back to handicapping more races from other tracks for January 19 and more of the same. Eventually I just had to skip ahead to the next chapter where the author provides some advice on record keeping and capital preservation.
To the author's credit, the importance to record keeping and money management to the serious horseplayer are often given short shrift in many handicapping books. Of course, if one is not a serious horseplayer, why worry about long-term results at the races if you only go on Derby day. Unfortunately, here the author tells you that record keeping and capital preservation are important but not much more. In other words, he gives short shrift to the topic here, but does discuss it in more detail later.
Next there is the plug for the computer program at winmoneybetting.com. (which is currently not avaiable according to the web-site). The plug acts as a kind of intermission to part 2 of the book called Winning moves.
In this section of the book we are given betting strategies and advice. Told we need to find the right handicapping method best fitting our own personal strengths and weaknesses, and why people lose. Then we are treated "Handicapping General" which offers a potpourri of racing generalisms, and "Money Management" where the author gives a few more details on methods of capital preservation.
The author discusses in particular the Martingale system and why it is not a particularly good method of capital preservation. He discusses the pros and cons of using a simple percentage of your bank roll (which is my personal method due to its simplicity), and the advantages and disadvantages of the Kelly and 1/2 Kelly systems (which I've tried but gave up on because I was spending so much time trying to calculate what my proper bet would be I couldn't focus on anything else). And probably a few more that I can't really recall because by this time he was starting to get repetitive, and I was beginning to doze off from lack of interest.
In summary, this is not a book I can recommend. The organization of the book seems to be somewhat chaotic as the author flits about from topic to topic in a seemingly random manner. While the author does cover a broad swath of handicapping topics, he really doesn't offer anything new to the discussion, and these topics have already been covered better and in more detail by other authors. I can't even recommend the actual handicapping section for beginners because I think they will treat it as a mechanical, no-brainer method without bothering with the nuances that the author does try to elaborate on in some parts of the book.
If I have to give the book a rating in horsey terms, I'd have to say that it finished up the track and out of the money for me.
No Public Handicapper picks this week as I went to the Panthers game (hockey) last night. However, I can provide some insight on the G3 MisterProspector Hdcp from Gulfstream Park.
If you like the Horse for course angle the #1 Kelly's Landing 3 for 6 and 5 for 6 ITM @ GP should impress. But the 8 year old won only one race in 2008, and OC80kN1Y while not showing the form necessary to win against stakes graded racers. In addition, the rail post offers a slight disadvantage at the 6f distance. I think Kelly's Landing best days are behind him and Leparoux can't turn back time.
#2 Granizo makes North American debut and has won 6 of 7 in Brazil. But the Chalk Eating Weasel is not impressed by life-time earnings of 13k and change and will pass on this one.
#3 How's Your Halo (remember him) is a good hard working horse but all of his wins have come within the friendly confines of Calder Race Course. Now this race is only a 15 minute drive across town. How's Your Halo did finish 2nd to Benny the Bull, no shame there. But I don't think he is a legitimate win candidate here. Definitely could finish in the money though so don't ignore entirely.
#4 Black Seventeen is my Chalk Eating Huckleberry for this race. Everyone seems to focus on his subpar Breeder's cup performance and seem to forget about the G1 Vosburgh win the race before. Jeebus! There are alot of horses who have, shall we say, less than stellar running lines from the Breeder's Cup races, and some of them have since won! After taking a break for November and December Black Seventeen came back and finished 3rd in a G3 race at Santa Anita. Black Seventeen is the only horse Brian Koriner will have run at GP today or this season so far. Black Seventeen is the only horse C. L. Potts is riding today. I don't think they are making the trip for the waters, and they're not eligible for the Fountain of Youth (a little Casablanca and Florida humor for you there). I've seen this pattern before. Greg Gilchrist and A.T. Gryder made the same trip successfully for the G3 My Charmer Hdcp at Calder with Wild promises a month ago.
BS may be the favorite this race, but may not be as there are a couple of "Johnny come lately's" with flashy speed figures yet to be discussed.
#5 Ikigai is the Marty Wolfson entry. This speedy horse will most certainly go to the lead, but so far has not demonstrated the ability to maintain that speed beyond 5 1/2 furlongs. Still dangerous if he's learned to relax on the lead.
#6 He's So Chic is the Weasel's number 2 contender and is one of those flashy speed figure horses we've spoken of. He ran a blistering 108 (and its not his only triple digit effort) in a minor stakes finishing in 2nd. Jason Servis wins 27% of the time and Jose Lezcano has been having a very good meet so far. The only knock is lack of Graded Stakes experience. That may no longer be a knock after today.
#7 Rollers had 4 consecutive triple digit speed figures before faltering on a muddy Aqueduct track last out. Rollers is another making his Graded stakes debut, but he has won a pricey (250k) non-graded affair at Philadelphia. Barclay Tagg is 22% trainer for Graded Stakes, so he knows how to get them ready. In addition, I have a growing respect for Alan Garcia, so I'm expecting a good effort from Rollers as my #3 contender. Oh, I almost forgot to mention that my main knock against Rollers is that his best races seem to those that are restricted to NY state breds, so I will only use him at a high price as this is one of those little nuances that can have effects on speed figures (level of competition).
That's it for today. Good Luck
Thursday, January 8, 2009
The Chalk Eating Weasel Is Now A Cultural Reference!
Yes, my friends, you read me correctly. I went back to Gulfstream Park today for the Thursday card. I made it a point to introduce myself to Ron Nicoletti, the track handicapper because I wanted to ask him about Touch Too Much.
I introduced myself to Ron, (I can call him Ron now, right?) and in the interest of full disclosure told him that I am a proud member of the TBA and wrote a blog called The Chalk Eating Weasel Report. He seemed to appreciate the name. I warned him that anything he said would be used against him.
I asked Ron about Touch Too Much. He (Ron) told me that the trainer, Patrick Reynolds, was actually quite optimistic about the horses chances prior to the race and thought she would win. That doesn't really shed any light on why the performance was so poor, but, at least I have the feeling that it was an honest effort. Ron told me he hadn't noticed the pre-race non warm up, but that's not surprising to me as I'm sure he is very busy during the day, and I am greatful for the time he gave me.
Fast forward to pre race 4 when Ron was giving the pre-race analysis. Ron's top choice in this race, and mine as well, was the heavy, and at the time even money favorite, was Nolan's Territory. Right there in front of everyone at Gulfstream, simulcast monitors across the world, and home wagering computer screens Ron declared himself to be a "Chalk Eating Weasel" as he went for the chalk in race 4.
A fellow Chalk Eating Weasel, Ron Nicoletti, hard at work.
I introduced myself to Ron, (I can call him Ron now, right?) and in the interest of full disclosure told him that I am a proud member of the TBA and wrote a blog called The Chalk Eating Weasel Report. He seemed to appreciate the name. I warned him that anything he said would be used against him.
I asked Ron about Touch Too Much. He (Ron) told me that the trainer, Patrick Reynolds, was actually quite optimistic about the horses chances prior to the race and thought she would win. That doesn't really shed any light on why the performance was so poor, but, at least I have the feeling that it was an honest effort. Ron told me he hadn't noticed the pre-race non warm up, but that's not surprising to me as I'm sure he is very busy during the day, and I am greatful for the time he gave me.
Fast forward to pre race 4 when Ron was giving the pre-race analysis. Ron's top choice in this race, and mine as well, was the heavy, and at the time even money favorite, was Nolan's Territory. Right there in front of everyone at Gulfstream, simulcast monitors across the world, and home wagering computer screens Ron declared himself to be a "Chalk Eating Weasel" as he went for the chalk in race 4.
A fellow Chalk Eating Weasel, Ron Nicoletti, hard at work.In another race 4 event, there were a couple of nice ladies sitting behind me in grandstand with their husbands. I think they were from out of town and not serious race fans. Just betting on names they liked or whatever. Seeing all my preparations, they must have figured I actually knew what I was doing ;-). So they would ask me my opinions about various horses, and I would tell them what I thought. Well the 4th race was looking rather chalky and the ladies wanted some high priced action, so I pointed out to them a horse that was going off at 19-1, Cruzatte that looked to be alive. Well Cruzatte didn't win, but came close finishing a closing 2nd. The ladies were happy enough with my prowess that they bought me a beer anyway. Below is a picture of those lovely women.
Will pay beer for tips
Now the national championship is coming on, just 10 minutes from where I live and practically next door to Calder Race Course. Go Gators.
A Horse to Watch For?
Let me begin by writing how pleased I am to be accepted into the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance. The TBA consists of a group of bloggers all of whom share a great passion for the sport of racing. I urge you to use the drop-down menu to the left and explore the many fine blogs listed there. You will find this great sport covered from many different perspectives from historical, wagering, issue oriented (and we all have our issues) and personal.
Now, if you've been reading my posts, you have probably noted that I tend to write more about my own personal experiences at the races. Today I just have a brief note on something I observed yesterday from the Gulfstream Park grandstand.
The first race on Jan. 7 was a 6 furlong MCL 40k for 4 year olds and up. Many of the participants in this race were lightly raced 4yo's. One of the obvious contenders in this race was a Patrick Reynolds trainee named Touch Too Much ridden today by Eibar Coa. Touch Too Much finished a game 2nd in a Maiden race at Aqueduct on Nov 26 and was then put on the shelf to wait for Gulfstream Park. On paper she appeared to be a top contender in this race.
Touch Too Much stood out immediately to me in the Post Parade, but for all the wrong reasons. Any racing fan knows that as the horses pass the grandstand their pace will quicken and the horses as they move along will gradually move from walking to trotting to a slow gallop to warm up and stretch out before a race, just as any athlete does. Touch to Much never did any thing more than walk to the gate, nothing. I watched her all the way because I thought this was very unusual. I remarked to a patron sitting next to me that this was very suspicious, and as it turned out, I was correct.
Now there are legitimate reasons for a horse not to vigorously warm up prior to racing. Perhaps the horse is a little sore and they don't want to stress the horse too much before the real effort is needed. But Touch to Much has only raced twice prior to now, and if she was so sore she couldn't warm up at all, then why wasn't she scratched?
Once the race began, Touch Too Much chased the pace for the first two calls and then faded to last. "then had nothing left.", is how the chart commentator charitably put it.
I'm not usually one to cry that a race is fixed or that some chicanery is afoot. I fully understand that sometimes horses are entered into races with better intentions than others. But this just doesn't make sense to me. It looked to me more like a glorified workout than an true effort to actually win the race.
We all know that in the case of 2 year olds some trainers are good to go first time out and others tend to use the first race as part of their training regimen. But those stats are out there for all of us to see and, at least those of us who pay enough attention, know which trainers are out for a win and which are looking to the future.
I don't really know much about Pat Reynolds because I don't follow NY racing that closely. If anyone can shed some light on this for me, I'd really appreciate the heads up. Is this a pattern he usually employs? Inquiring minds want to know. Should I be looking for Touch To Much at a long price next out based on this effort, or is she just too sore to be considered?
Please leave a comment or send me an E-Mail if you can help me out with this.
Now, if you've been reading my posts, you have probably noted that I tend to write more about my own personal experiences at the races. Today I just have a brief note on something I observed yesterday from the Gulfstream Park grandstand.
The first race on Jan. 7 was a 6 furlong MCL 40k for 4 year olds and up. Many of the participants in this race were lightly raced 4yo's. One of the obvious contenders in this race was a Patrick Reynolds trainee named Touch Too Much ridden today by Eibar Coa. Touch Too Much finished a game 2nd in a Maiden race at Aqueduct on Nov 26 and was then put on the shelf to wait for Gulfstream Park. On paper she appeared to be a top contender in this race.
Touch Too Much stood out immediately to me in the Post Parade, but for all the wrong reasons. Any racing fan knows that as the horses pass the grandstand their pace will quicken and the horses as they move along will gradually move from walking to trotting to a slow gallop to warm up and stretch out before a race, just as any athlete does. Touch to Much never did any thing more than walk to the gate, nothing. I watched her all the way because I thought this was very unusual. I remarked to a patron sitting next to me that this was very suspicious, and as it turned out, I was correct.
Now there are legitimate reasons for a horse not to vigorously warm up prior to racing. Perhaps the horse is a little sore and they don't want to stress the horse too much before the real effort is needed. But Touch to Much has only raced twice prior to now, and if she was so sore she couldn't warm up at all, then why wasn't she scratched?
Once the race began, Touch Too Much chased the pace for the first two calls and then faded to last. "then had nothing left.", is how the chart commentator charitably put it.
I'm not usually one to cry that a race is fixed or that some chicanery is afoot. I fully understand that sometimes horses are entered into races with better intentions than others. But this just doesn't make sense to me. It looked to me more like a glorified workout than an true effort to actually win the race.
We all know that in the case of 2 year olds some trainers are good to go first time out and others tend to use the first race as part of their training regimen. But those stats are out there for all of us to see and, at least those of us who pay enough attention, know which trainers are out for a win and which are looking to the future.
I don't really know much about Pat Reynolds because I don't follow NY racing that closely. If anyone can shed some light on this for me, I'd really appreciate the heads up. Is this a pattern he usually employs? Inquiring minds want to know. Should I be looking for Touch To Much at a long price next out based on this effort, or is she just too sore to be considered?
Please leave a comment or send me an E-Mail if you can help me out with this.
Monday, January 5, 2009
Bettor To Be Lucky Than Good
Satuday supposedly saw record attendance at Gulfstream Park for opening day. I don't know how they can possibly know since they don't charge admission, and I didn't observe anyone with clicking counting devices as I entered. Perhaps they based it on the handle and an estimated dollars played per person. I can attest that the track was quite crowded, but because of the way they configured the complex, it always seems to be crowded.
Usually I like to play another track in addition to the one I'm at. The Fair Grounds in this case. However, due to the crowd, and the fact that my wife and son were with me, I decided after the first two in Louisianna that trying to play two tracks was going to be too hectic and probably detrimental to my bank roll. The next Saturday I go, like this week, I'll probably hang out in the "beach" area where it is not as crowded and I can have access to monitors for both the Fair Grounds and follow the Gulfstream action without having to totally abandon my wife and fight for a decent vantage point.
The Chalk Eating Weasel Report is not subtitled Adventures In Thoroughbred Handicapping for no reason so allow me to relate a little handicapping adventure from Saturday.
The 3rd race on the Gulfstream card Saturday was a 50k Claiming event for fillies and mares 4 years old and up on the Turf. As previously mentioned many times, I make my own odds lines on who I feel are the win contenders in a race and then place my bets accordingly.
In this race, I liked the 3 horse, Saint Knows at 3-1. Saint knows is a 6 year old who spent most of 2008 running in either high priced Alw n3x or minor stakes conditions, so I suppose you could say she was getting a little class relief for this race. In addition, she is 5 for 16 on grass and has won over the GP turf course.
My 2nd choice was #9 Cut For Luck at 7-2. Looking back at the results chart, I now see that Cut For Luck was disdained by the continuum at 21 to 1. I don't know how I missed that, but I think it may have had something to do with the hecticness and distractions of the day. CFL probably got little respect due to the fact that it had raced the summer over at Calder Race Course rather than some of the higher class race tracks. I liked the fact that this 5 year old liked to win being 5 for 16 on the grass and had recently beat a next out winner while running an OC25k/n2x indicating that she was currently in good form.
My 3rd choice was #6 Pay Wright who I made 9-2. This horse has come south from Aqueduct and another proven turf course winner. She had a nice freshing layoff since November 5th and had been working regularly and on the turf at the Palm Beach training facility. That last tidbit alone should've been enough for me to upgrade Pay Wright. I have been informed that the course at Palm Beach is very heavy and slow and that any horse training there is bound to have a conditioning edge when it comes down to race.
My 4th and final contender was the "4" horse Spirit Line. Spirit Line is a 4 year old coming off a 50k Claiming win at Churchill Downs on November 15th. Again another nice 6 week lay off with regular works at Gulfstream Park in December. Spirit Line is a trainee in Wesley Ward's barn and was being ridden by Elvis Trujillo. These two paired up at a 25% win rate at Calder's Tropical meet. Furthermore, I always have to respect a WW entry. I think he is one of those trainers that don't get a lot of attention like Pletcher and Asmussen, but just wins a lot of races. I made Spirit Line to be 5-1.
When the odds were first posted for the 3rd race, I noticed right away that the 4 horse was at 15-1. I didn't get too excited at that point figuring that the odds were just skewed early and would likely straighten themselves out as time went by. Again, I don't know how I missed the 9 horse, maybe I just stopped when I saw 15 to 1 on one of my contenders.
Well time went by and the odds on the 4 horse were not moving and I was beginning to salivate. Finally I couldn't take it any longer as the odds on the 4 horse began drifting up towards 18-1. I went to the windows with the intention of hammering on this horse. I played three different p3 tickets each involving the 4 horse. I placed a straight win bet on the 4 horse. I used a tactic I've learned from Mark Cramer and used the exacta as my place bet putting the 4 horse underneath my other 3 contenders.
I went back to my seat full of confidence and looked over my program one last time when, at last, I noticed why my 4 horse was being so ignored. The 4 horse was named Red Hot Bullet, not Spirit Line. Arrrgggh!
After the initial shock had worn off, all I could do was laugh at my folly and decide I needed to pull for the 4 horse. After all, on paper the 4 horse wasn't horrible, I just didn't think it could win this race. Red Hot Bullet is trained by Leroy Jolly who has only won at 5% on turf in recent times. RHB had run on Turf 3 times with one show placing for the effort. The strongest thing RHB had going for her was Alan Garcia who is one of the better turf jockeys around. So, ok, I'm pulling for the 4.
As the race went, I kept my eyes glued to the 4 who seemed to be in good postion mid-pack coming down the backstretch and, YES, was actually passing horses coming around the last turn and gaining on my 3rd choice Pay Wright.
As it happened Pay Wright managed to hold 1st and my number 4 finished 2nd. The $2 exacta paid $200.00. Imagine if the 9 horse Cut For Luck, the leader at the 3/4 pole and in the stretch had managed to hold on for 1st and RHB 2nd. What an exacta that would've been. My 4th selection the "5" horse Spirit Line was never a factor in the race and finished dead last.
I just had to laugh. Not only had I won $200.00 in the exacta, but thanks to Pay Wright winning, I was still alive in the Pick 3.
Sometimes its just better to be lucky than good.
Usually I like to play another track in addition to the one I'm at. The Fair Grounds in this case. However, due to the crowd, and the fact that my wife and son were with me, I decided after the first two in Louisianna that trying to play two tracks was going to be too hectic and probably detrimental to my bank roll. The next Saturday I go, like this week, I'll probably hang out in the "beach" area where it is not as crowded and I can have access to monitors for both the Fair Grounds and follow the Gulfstream action without having to totally abandon my wife and fight for a decent vantage point.
The Chalk Eating Weasel Report is not subtitled Adventures In Thoroughbred Handicapping for no reason so allow me to relate a little handicapping adventure from Saturday.
The 3rd race on the Gulfstream card Saturday was a 50k Claiming event for fillies and mares 4 years old and up on the Turf. As previously mentioned many times, I make my own odds lines on who I feel are the win contenders in a race and then place my bets accordingly.
In this race, I liked the 3 horse, Saint Knows at 3-1. Saint knows is a 6 year old who spent most of 2008 running in either high priced Alw n3x or minor stakes conditions, so I suppose you could say she was getting a little class relief for this race. In addition, she is 5 for 16 on grass and has won over the GP turf course.
My 2nd choice was #9 Cut For Luck at 7-2. Looking back at the results chart, I now see that Cut For Luck was disdained by the continuum at 21 to 1. I don't know how I missed that, but I think it may have had something to do with the hecticness and distractions of the day. CFL probably got little respect due to the fact that it had raced the summer over at Calder Race Course rather than some of the higher class race tracks. I liked the fact that this 5 year old liked to win being 5 for 16 on the grass and had recently beat a next out winner while running an OC25k/n2x indicating that she was currently in good form.
My 3rd choice was #6 Pay Wright who I made 9-2. This horse has come south from Aqueduct and another proven turf course winner. She had a nice freshing layoff since November 5th and had been working regularly and on the turf at the Palm Beach training facility. That last tidbit alone should've been enough for me to upgrade Pay Wright. I have been informed that the course at Palm Beach is very heavy and slow and that any horse training there is bound to have a conditioning edge when it comes down to race.
My 4th and final contender was the "4" horse Spirit Line. Spirit Line is a 4 year old coming off a 50k Claiming win at Churchill Downs on November 15th. Again another nice 6 week lay off with regular works at Gulfstream Park in December. Spirit Line is a trainee in Wesley Ward's barn and was being ridden by Elvis Trujillo. These two paired up at a 25% win rate at Calder's Tropical meet. Furthermore, I always have to respect a WW entry. I think he is one of those trainers that don't get a lot of attention like Pletcher and Asmussen, but just wins a lot of races. I made Spirit Line to be 5-1.
When the odds were first posted for the 3rd race, I noticed right away that the 4 horse was at 15-1. I didn't get too excited at that point figuring that the odds were just skewed early and would likely straighten themselves out as time went by. Again, I don't know how I missed the 9 horse, maybe I just stopped when I saw 15 to 1 on one of my contenders.
Well time went by and the odds on the 4 horse were not moving and I was beginning to salivate. Finally I couldn't take it any longer as the odds on the 4 horse began drifting up towards 18-1. I went to the windows with the intention of hammering on this horse. I played three different p3 tickets each involving the 4 horse. I placed a straight win bet on the 4 horse. I used a tactic I've learned from Mark Cramer and used the exacta as my place bet putting the 4 horse underneath my other 3 contenders.
I went back to my seat full of confidence and looked over my program one last time when, at last, I noticed why my 4 horse was being so ignored. The 4 horse was named Red Hot Bullet, not Spirit Line. Arrrgggh!
After the initial shock had worn off, all I could do was laugh at my folly and decide I needed to pull for the 4 horse. After all, on paper the 4 horse wasn't horrible, I just didn't think it could win this race. Red Hot Bullet is trained by Leroy Jolly who has only won at 5% on turf in recent times. RHB had run on Turf 3 times with one show placing for the effort. The strongest thing RHB had going for her was Alan Garcia who is one of the better turf jockeys around. So, ok, I'm pulling for the 4.
As the race went, I kept my eyes glued to the 4 who seemed to be in good postion mid-pack coming down the backstretch and, YES, was actually passing horses coming around the last turn and gaining on my 3rd choice Pay Wright.
As it happened Pay Wright managed to hold 1st and my number 4 finished 2nd. The $2 exacta paid $200.00. Imagine if the 9 horse Cut For Luck, the leader at the 3/4 pole and in the stretch had managed to hold on for 1st and RHB 2nd. What an exacta that would've been. My 4th selection the "5" horse Spirit Line was never a factor in the race and finished dead last.
I just had to laugh. Not only had I won $200.00 in the exacta, but thanks to Pay Wright winning, I was still alive in the Pick 3.
Sometimes its just better to be lucky than good.
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Gulfstream Park Opens
Gulfstream Park opens today! I'll be there today, probably not tomorrow and then every day they're open the rest of the week as I'm on vacation, still, for the next week and want to soak in as much as I can before going back to day to day drudgery of a worker bee.
Calder is now dark for the next 4 months or so, although they do continue to have daily simulcasting. Since they are open on Monday, I will probably go there to play Fair Grounds on Monday. I showed a net profit for the season at Calder and am currently killing at the Fair Grounds.
Unfortunately, Gulfstream chewed me up and spit me out last year. I'm hoping to remedy that situation this year. Last year, I was floundering around a lot and experimenting with a lot of different handicapping methods. This year I'm pretty much settled in a confident in what I'm doing using a common sense approach applying the basics of Class, Speed, and Conditions. Hopefully I can continue to apply this approach with success at Gulfstream.
Today being Saturday, I know you can't wait for my Public Handicapper's prognostications. Two of the contest races are a Gulfstream, so you'll get an early handle on how the season might go for me.
The 4th Race at GP is the 100k Spectacular Bid Stakes for 3 year olds contested at 6 furlongs on the main track
#2 You Lucky Mann
7-5
2-1
#7 Silent Valor
7-2
5-1
#1 Notonthesamepage
9-2
7-1
#2 convincingly blew away 100k CRC field with something left has had good freshining layoff and could win even with a 10pt. Regression. #7 G3 winner as 2yo has been training well, but may be pointed to bigger races #1 Led first two calls of 2yo G1 at Keeneland turns back for 2009 debut.
The 8th race is the G3 Hal's Hope Contested at 1 mile on the main track.
#12 Bribon
3-1
9-2
#3 Fearless Vision
7-2
5-1
#8 Now A Victor
9-2
7-1
#11 Anak Nakal
6-1
9-1
#12 Loves the distance and has amazing G1 type figures at the distance. #3 is 4 for 5 at the distance and 2 for 5 at GP #8 Has done nothing wrong in 5 starts and will likely be the favorite. #11 G2 winner who only seems to score for a price so I won't be fooled by low odds on this one.
The 11th race at Turfway Park is the 50k Turfway Prevue Stakes for 3 year olds at 6.5 furlongs on the polytrack, or whatever they got
#1 Lethal Heat
8-5
5-2
#2 Jibboom
5-2
4-1
#3 La Tee
6-1
9-1
#1 has been resting since Aug after running strong in the G1 Del Mar Oaks. Showed steady improvement throughout the year and might be the best if she come off the bench firing. #2 This G2 winner has Frankel/Gomez connection and cannot be ignored #3 Like her young rider, this one has potential to be good, but the up and coming Rosario isn't quite getting the premier mounts yet, so use this one at high odds and in exotics.
And finally, the G3 Monrovia Hdcp for Fillies and Mares 4 and up going 6.5 furlongs on the tricksy downhill turf course.
#1 Lethal Heat
8-5
5-2
#2 Jibboom
5-2
4-1
#3 La Tee
6-1
9-1
#1 has been resting since Aug after running strong in the G1 Del Mar Oaks. Showed steady improvement throughout the year and might be the best if she come off the bench firing. #2 This G2 winner has Frankel/Gomez connection and cannot be ignored #3 Like her young rider, this one has potential to be good, but the up and coming Rosario isn't quite getting the premier mounts yet, so use this one at high odds and in exotics.
Remember, my selections are worth exactly what you paid for them. Also my goal is not necessarily to pick the winner. Rather, I prefer to figure what the proper odds are for the contenders in the race and try to exploit the differentials to my benefit. Sometimes I'm right and sometimes I'm wrong. And sometimes, even if I'm right, I'm wrong. Furthermore, my line is completely qualitative based on my experiences and intuition. If anyone has a surefire quantitative method for making an odds line, please tell me.
Good luck and enjoy the races.
Calder is now dark for the next 4 months or so, although they do continue to have daily simulcasting. Since they are open on Monday, I will probably go there to play Fair Grounds on Monday. I showed a net profit for the season at Calder and am currently killing at the Fair Grounds.
Unfortunately, Gulfstream chewed me up and spit me out last year. I'm hoping to remedy that situation this year. Last year, I was floundering around a lot and experimenting with a lot of different handicapping methods. This year I'm pretty much settled in a confident in what I'm doing using a common sense approach applying the basics of Class, Speed, and Conditions. Hopefully I can continue to apply this approach with success at Gulfstream.
Today being Saturday, I know you can't wait for my Public Handicapper's prognostications. Two of the contest races are a Gulfstream, so you'll get an early handle on how the season might go for me.
The 4th Race at GP is the 100k Spectacular Bid Stakes for 3 year olds contested at 6 furlongs on the main track
#2 You Lucky Mann
7-5
2-1
#7 Silent Valor
7-2
5-1
#1 Notonthesamepage
9-2
7-1
#2 convincingly blew away 100k CRC field with something left has had good freshining layoff and could win even with a 10pt. Regression. #7 G3 winner as 2yo has been training well, but may be pointed to bigger races #1 Led first two calls of 2yo G1 at Keeneland turns back for 2009 debut.
The 8th race is the G3 Hal's Hope Contested at 1 mile on the main track.
#12 Bribon
3-1
9-2
#3 Fearless Vision
7-2
5-1
#8 Now A Victor
9-2
7-1
#11 Anak Nakal
6-1
9-1
#12 Loves the distance and has amazing G1 type figures at the distance. #3 is 4 for 5 at the distance and 2 for 5 at GP #8 Has done nothing wrong in 5 starts and will likely be the favorite. #11 G2 winner who only seems to score for a price so I won't be fooled by low odds on this one.
The 11th race at Turfway Park is the 50k Turfway Prevue Stakes for 3 year olds at 6.5 furlongs on the polytrack, or whatever they got
#1 Lethal Heat
8-5
5-2
#2 Jibboom
5-2
4-1
#3 La Tee
6-1
9-1
#1 has been resting since Aug after running strong in the G1 Del Mar Oaks. Showed steady improvement throughout the year and might be the best if she come off the bench firing. #2 This G2 winner has Frankel/Gomez connection and cannot be ignored #3 Like her young rider, this one has potential to be good, but the up and coming Rosario isn't quite getting the premier mounts yet, so use this one at high odds and in exotics.
And finally, the G3 Monrovia Hdcp for Fillies and Mares 4 and up going 6.5 furlongs on the tricksy downhill turf course.
#1 Lethal Heat
8-5
5-2
#2 Jibboom
5-2
4-1
#3 La Tee
6-1
9-1
#1 has been resting since Aug after running strong in the G1 Del Mar Oaks. Showed steady improvement throughout the year and might be the best if she come off the bench firing. #2 This G2 winner has Frankel/Gomez connection and cannot be ignored #3 Like her young rider, this one has potential to be good, but the up and coming Rosario isn't quite getting the premier mounts yet, so use this one at high odds and in exotics.
Remember, my selections are worth exactly what you paid for them. Also my goal is not necessarily to pick the winner. Rather, I prefer to figure what the proper odds are for the contenders in the race and try to exploit the differentials to my benefit. Sometimes I'm right and sometimes I'm wrong. And sometimes, even if I'm right, I'm wrong. Furthermore, my line is completely qualitative based on my experiences and intuition. If anyone has a surefire quantitative method for making an odds line, please tell me.
Good luck and enjoy the races.
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