I don't really feel like doing the Public Handicapper races today. Does that make me a bad person? The week has been full. I really haven't had the time to get into them and do them justice. As I've said before, better not to do them at all than to be half-assed about it.
I'll make it up to you, I promise. For starters, I have the entire 13 race CRC card scoped out for you. The weather is expected to be sunny and warm so all the races scheduled for turf should actually make it to the sod today.
In addition, I will bring selections for all the Breeder's Cup races as I get them. I actually have the early entries now, but I can't see wasting all the ink, paper, and time putting any effort into them until the entries have been finalized and the post positions drawn. I think that happens on Tuesday, so I'll be working all day Wednesday and probably most of Thursday poring over racing forms and results charts.
My general game plan for the big event will be to play CRC on both days as I normally would and try to be selective and pick my spots with the Cup races. We'll see if I can resist the temptation to plunge my brains out on each race.
Reminder that my stint as a guest handicapper at http://www.casetherace.com/ continues this week with a full analysis of today's race 8 at CRC.
Calder Race Track Selections for October 31.
Race 1: 1 mile Clm6250N2L for fillies and mares 3 years old and up
#7 Cynthia's Secret
#1 Caveat Cat
#8 Dibs On Debbie
#3 Honey Of A Dream
Race 2: 6.5 fur. Clm16000N2L fillies 2 years old
#2 Grand Decision
#1 Forgiven
#3 She's A Mambo
#5 Full N Sassy
Race 3: 1 mile Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for fillies 2 years old
#3 Golden Humor
#2b Kate's Holiday
#1a Super Girlie
#7 Come Sunday
Race 4: 7.5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 21k for fillies 3, 4, and 5 years old
#7 Lady Zeig
#5 Manerbe
#8 Two Cheers
#6 Starland Queen
Race 5: 6.5 fur. Starter Alw 16000 for 3 years old and up
#6 Starship Valor
#8 Caixa Eletronica
#3 Christmas Parade
Race 6: 5 fur. MdClm 12500 for fillies and mares 3, 4, and 5 years old
#9 High Dollar Escort
#10 My Espresso
#12 Savannah Sings
Race 7: 8.5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 years old
#5 Big Joey
#7 Lion Thunder
#11 Mr. Postman
#10 Bold Tiger
Race 8: 7 fur. Clm10000b 3 years old and 4 years old and upward which have never won three races
#5 Brandy Bai
#4 Girl Band
#1 One Proud Cat
#3 My Best China
See http://www.casetherace.com/ for full analysis
Race 9: 5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 year olds
#5 Sliding In
#3 More Drama
#7 Tiger Willie
#2 Fortunate Rooster
Race 10: 5.5 fur. Clm12500N2L for 2 year olds
#3 My Good Friend
#8 Mega Party
#4 Nothing's Perfect
#6 By Your Side
Pick 4 tickets for races 7-10 brought to you by DRF's Ticketmaker and the Chalk Eating Weasel
1. 5/5/5/3 times 2
2. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/5/3
3. 5/5/3,7/3
4. 5/5/5/4,6,8
5. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/3,7/3
6. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/5/4,6,8
7. 5/5/3,7/4,6,8
8. 5/5/2/3
Total cost $25.00 for a .50 base bet
Race 11: 1 mile(Turf) Alw 21700N1X for 3 year olds and upward
#8 Regis
#1 Bandit Prince
#11 Caravel
#3 Sky Gate
Race 12: 6 fur. Starter Alw 16000 for fillies and mares 3 years old and upward.
#2 Wyatt's Women
#7 Margaret Smile
#5 Meadow Touch
#8 Suave Royalty
Race 13: 1 mile Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 year olds
#5 Forty Nine Acres
#1 Taxes Taxes Taxes
#4 Hellen's Cause
#9 Backstage Lounge
That's all for today. Good Luck and enjoy the races
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Making the Case
Here it is 7:30 in the morning and I'm looking out the window to the south watching the morning clouds roll in off the ocean and hoping they aren't bring any rain for the turf course at Calder today.
Today I get to bring you 4 more races from the Public Handicappers contest so sit back, relax, and the Weasel take you through some nice competitive racing.
The first race comes from Laurel Park in Maryland. Its the 9th race on the card, The Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash a Grade 1 affair contested at 6 furlongs for 3 year olds and upward.
Vineyard Haven, the DQ'd runner up to Capt Candyman Can in the King's Bishop at Saratoga is the headliner for this race, but he will not be alone in this competitive field of 9.
The race shapes up with a lot of front running types to be vying for the early lead. If this becomes the story of this race then the set up will be perfect for the horse that can stalk from off the pace and we have such a horse in this field in #3 Ravalo.
Stalk and pounce is the modus operandi for Ravalo, and he is capable of running the triple digit figure that will be required to win this race making him the top choice over the likely favorite Vineyard Haven.
Of course, it may be the Vineyard Haven is just too good for the field. The 3 year old is working well and showing no ill effects from its shoving match with Capt Candyman Can back in August. Alan Garcia will get the call. The Godolphin Racing entry will be tough to beat.
The #6 horse, Peace Chant, is another that may benefit if the early pace is too hectic. Peace Chant is a lightly raced 6 year old with only 15 starts indicating that ol' PC has been spending a lot of time on the disabled list. In his last, the Forego-G1, Peace Chant was making a strong late bid when he got cut off and lost the big mo. The DRF comment box notes that although Peace Chant primarily raced on the West Coast, all four of his wins have come on dirt. Looks like he has a puncher's chance in this one to me.
Finally #4 Fleet Valid is one that can sit close to the early leaders and take over when the time is right. Fleet Valid has won 4 in a row at Monmouth including 2 non graded stakes events. He is another contender that is capable of posting triple digit Beyer's in this race.
So while Vineyard Haven may be the one to beat in this race, don't look for the rest of the field to roll over for him. Below are the selections in order of preference.
#3 Ravalo
#1 Vineyard Haven
#6 Peace Chant
#4 Fleet Valid
For the 9th race at Keeneland, The Lexus Raven Run G2. I just have to throw my hands up and say pick 'em. There are 16 entered, 14 will run, and it is possible to make a case for just about all of them. I'm going to have to stick with the obvious in this one.
Both the #8 Flashing and #4 Pretty Prolific are coming out of key races, so I am making them tepid 1,2 favorites here. The horse I will probably play and key exotics around will be my 3rd choice #5 Jardin.
Jardin is coming 3rd back off a layoff and trainer Thomas Albertrani is 35% with a +ROI in the last 2 years with this angle. Since I think Jardin will be something better than 9-5 in this field, I will at least have the satisfaction of having a sound statistical overlay to play. Of course in this large a field, any horse is likely to offer a reasonable price.
Finally the 4th choice will be #11 Sky Haven who is a proven syn runner for Asmussen with some nice Beyer's and Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard.
This looks like a great trifecta opportunity if you can somehow narrow the bet size down to something manageable.
The selections are
8. Flashing
4. Pretty Prolific
5. Jardin
11 Sky Haven
At 8:53 am This just in. Raining at Calder.
The 9th at Belmont is the 32nd running of The Hudson for State breds 3 and up
Finally, a race that isn't a real head scratcher
Although a New York bred, #1 Driven By Success has had some success racing in open graded company and has been dominant against the state breds making him an easy top choice.
The one NY bred that has recently had some luck against DBS is #11 Law Enforcement. Don't worry about his last in the Forego. I expect he will come back with some run in this easier spot.
The 3rd choice, #4 Legal Consent, broke poorly last out. However, he has earned a lot of money racing against his fellow state breds and has an affinity for the track and the distance.
After these 3 its anybody's guess in this race although, I suppose you could consider #9 Be Bullish who benefitted from Legal Consent's problems last out. Still, I figure Driven By Success will be the one to beat here.
1. Driven By Success
11. Law Enforcement
4. Legal Consent
9. Be Bullish
Finally, another contest for state-breds from Belmont Park the 1oth race is the 24th running of The Empire Classic for 3 and up.
This is the race Michael Maker is finally going to win one for the Weasel. There is no doubt in my mind that Future Prospect is the best bet of the 4 races if you wish to cash a ticket. That said if Future Prospect is a paltry 1-2 as he was last out, I will pass the race.
The 2nd choice is the #5 Haynesfield coming off a good off the bench effort last out he should move forward off of that race for Steve Asmussen and rider Ramon Dominguez
The 3rd choice goes to #2 Slevin. Coming 3rd off the layoff he has had 2 strong efforts and just needs a little luck here to make his first stakes score.
Finally the 4th choice will the #4 Weathered. Weathered is appreciated for his game efforts in open company which is always a plus when looking at state bred restricted races such as this one. A 50% winner, Weathered knows how to find the wire first and would not be a big surprise.
The choices
#6 Future Prospect
#5 Haynesfield
#2 Slevin
#4 Weathered.
As always, when looking at these selections, one should take into account the odds on each horse and perhaps play or key on the one that seems to offer the most value to you. If one of these picks has a particularly long price, take a good look at the horse. It is possible that I am just off-base with the selection. It is also possible that I have seen something others have missed. That is the decision you must take responsibility for.
Hey!!! Check out my selection for the 12th race for Calder Race Course today. Hopefully it will stay on the grass, but since most of the runners are more experienced on the main track, it may not make all that much difference. To check out my selection visit http://www.casetherace.com/ The analysis is really there today, I checked it out myself.
As always Good Luck with your selections in todays racing and enjoy the races.
Today I get to bring you 4 more races from the Public Handicappers contest so sit back, relax, and the Weasel take you through some nice competitive racing.
The first race comes from Laurel Park in Maryland. Its the 9th race on the card, The Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash a Grade 1 affair contested at 6 furlongs for 3 year olds and upward.
Vineyard Haven, the DQ'd runner up to Capt Candyman Can in the King's Bishop at Saratoga is the headliner for this race, but he will not be alone in this competitive field of 9.
The race shapes up with a lot of front running types to be vying for the early lead. If this becomes the story of this race then the set up will be perfect for the horse that can stalk from off the pace and we have such a horse in this field in #3 Ravalo.
Stalk and pounce is the modus operandi for Ravalo, and he is capable of running the triple digit figure that will be required to win this race making him the top choice over the likely favorite Vineyard Haven.
Of course, it may be the Vineyard Haven is just too good for the field. The 3 year old is working well and showing no ill effects from its shoving match with Capt Candyman Can back in August. Alan Garcia will get the call. The Godolphin Racing entry will be tough to beat.
The #6 horse, Peace Chant, is another that may benefit if the early pace is too hectic. Peace Chant is a lightly raced 6 year old with only 15 starts indicating that ol' PC has been spending a lot of time on the disabled list. In his last, the Forego-G1, Peace Chant was making a strong late bid when he got cut off and lost the big mo. The DRF comment box notes that although Peace Chant primarily raced on the West Coast, all four of his wins have come on dirt. Looks like he has a puncher's chance in this one to me.
Finally #4 Fleet Valid is one that can sit close to the early leaders and take over when the time is right. Fleet Valid has won 4 in a row at Monmouth including 2 non graded stakes events. He is another contender that is capable of posting triple digit Beyer's in this race.
So while Vineyard Haven may be the one to beat in this race, don't look for the rest of the field to roll over for him. Below are the selections in order of preference.
#3 Ravalo
#1 Vineyard Haven
#6 Peace Chant
#4 Fleet Valid
For the 9th race at Keeneland, The Lexus Raven Run G2. I just have to throw my hands up and say pick 'em. There are 16 entered, 14 will run, and it is possible to make a case for just about all of them. I'm going to have to stick with the obvious in this one.
Both the #8 Flashing and #4 Pretty Prolific are coming out of key races, so I am making them tepid 1,2 favorites here. The horse I will probably play and key exotics around will be my 3rd choice #5 Jardin.
Jardin is coming 3rd back off a layoff and trainer Thomas Albertrani is 35% with a +ROI in the last 2 years with this angle. Since I think Jardin will be something better than 9-5 in this field, I will at least have the satisfaction of having a sound statistical overlay to play. Of course in this large a field, any horse is likely to offer a reasonable price.
Finally the 4th choice will be #11 Sky Haven who is a proven syn runner for Asmussen with some nice Beyer's and Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard.
This looks like a great trifecta opportunity if you can somehow narrow the bet size down to something manageable.
The selections are
8. Flashing
4. Pretty Prolific
5. Jardin
11 Sky Haven
At 8:53 am This just in. Raining at Calder.
The 9th at Belmont is the 32nd running of The Hudson for State breds 3 and up
Finally, a race that isn't a real head scratcher
Although a New York bred, #1 Driven By Success has had some success racing in open graded company and has been dominant against the state breds making him an easy top choice.
The one NY bred that has recently had some luck against DBS is #11 Law Enforcement. Don't worry about his last in the Forego. I expect he will come back with some run in this easier spot.
The 3rd choice, #4 Legal Consent, broke poorly last out. However, he has earned a lot of money racing against his fellow state breds and has an affinity for the track and the distance.
After these 3 its anybody's guess in this race although, I suppose you could consider #9 Be Bullish who benefitted from Legal Consent's problems last out. Still, I figure Driven By Success will be the one to beat here.
1. Driven By Success
11. Law Enforcement
4. Legal Consent
9. Be Bullish
Finally, another contest for state-breds from Belmont Park the 1oth race is the 24th running of The Empire Classic for 3 and up.
This is the race Michael Maker is finally going to win one for the Weasel. There is no doubt in my mind that Future Prospect is the best bet of the 4 races if you wish to cash a ticket. That said if Future Prospect is a paltry 1-2 as he was last out, I will pass the race.
The 2nd choice is the #5 Haynesfield coming off a good off the bench effort last out he should move forward off of that race for Steve Asmussen and rider Ramon Dominguez
The 3rd choice goes to #2 Slevin. Coming 3rd off the layoff he has had 2 strong efforts and just needs a little luck here to make his first stakes score.
Finally the 4th choice will the #4 Weathered. Weathered is appreciated for his game efforts in open company which is always a plus when looking at state bred restricted races such as this one. A 50% winner, Weathered knows how to find the wire first and would not be a big surprise.
The choices
#6 Future Prospect
#5 Haynesfield
#2 Slevin
#4 Weathered.
As always, when looking at these selections, one should take into account the odds on each horse and perhaps play or key on the one that seems to offer the most value to you. If one of these picks has a particularly long price, take a good look at the horse. It is possible that I am just off-base with the selection. It is also possible that I have seen something others have missed. That is the decision you must take responsibility for.
Hey!!! Check out my selection for the 12th race for Calder Race Course today. Hopefully it will stay on the grass, but since most of the runners are more experienced on the main track, it may not make all that much difference. To check out my selection visit http://www.casetherace.com/ The analysis is really there today, I checked it out myself.
As always Good Luck with your selections in todays racing and enjoy the races.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Festival of the Sun
As I write this from my Florida room a mere few minutes from Calder Race Course the skies are sunny with the temperature at 77o. Contrast to Toronto where the temperature is a chilly 34 with Rain/Snow showers forecast.
I actually have the Nearctic and Candian International Races handicapped, but considering the current conditions, I feel that all that work is out the window into the bright Florida sunshine now. Instead, I will bring you the 11th race from Calder, the G3 Spendabuck Hcp and the Senator Ken Maddy Hdcp (G3) from Santa Anita.
As a bonus, to make up for the rainy/snowy Woodbine race, I will give you my stakes picks for the other Calder stakes on this big South Florida Racing day.
Now for race 11 from CRC
With the exception of Lady Shatzi who is making her North American debut from Peru, the horses running in this race are old friends who have frequently shared the same track.
Of this group, #9 Motovato, trained by Marty Wolfson and ridden by Eddie Castro is clearly the class of the field as the winner of 2 of the last 3 stakes he has run at Calder including a 2nd place finish behind the late Finallymadeit in the G3 Memorial Day Hdcp. I do have a race where I will try to beat Wolfson, just not this one.
The 2nd choice #10 Mambo Meister has spent most of the Summer running on grass but has also shown ability on dirt. Therefore, the surface switch should be of no consequence. Mambo Meister is a capable 4 year old who gets leading rider Manoel Cruz in the irons. Manny is definitely better on dirt than grass (a little CRC hint: I nearly always consider Cruz a bet against on turf). Mambo's last 3 have all been graded affairs up at Saratoga and Monmouth so he will definitely be feeling the class relief in this field.
The #4 Dream Maestro is getting little respect from the morning line maker at 12-1 and the DRF analysts not even getting a nod for 3rd position on the selection sheet. However the Maestro has run some good races and always seems to be hanging around in the money at the end. It may be true that Dream Maestro suffers a bit of seconditis with 9 places in 22 tries, but I don't see how you can completely discount this consistent contender. I wouldn't play him at 2-1 but 12-1 could be another story.
Finally the 4th choice is the #1 Imawildandcrazyguy who won on the slop last out. Really, this is more of a nod to the abilities of Eibar Coa who seems to dominate when he runs at Calder rather than the ability of this one time KY Derby entrant. However, Imawildandcrazyguy exhibits a lot of back class with winnings of $626,745 easily out distancing the other contenders in the field. Play only at a large price.
#9 Motovato
#10 Mambo Meister
#4 Dream Maestro
#1 Imawildandcrazyguy
Off to The Oak Tree at Santa Anita and the SKMaddyH at 6.5f.
The top choice #2 Gotta Have Her has been in the money for her last 8 and 9 of her last 10. She is 3 for 3 at this distance and has 4 for 8 winners at Santa Anita including a G2 win in the Palomar Hdcp last out. Just flat out looks like the one to beat to me.
Maybe #4 Reba Is Tops can be the one to do it. She probably needed her last, finishing 2nd in the Daisycutter at Del Mar and should move forward this time out. She will be tough to beat if she does. Joe Talamo gets the call. Joe and Reba have been a potent combo since teaming up 4 races ago with 2 firsts and 2 seconds. I expect more of the same here.
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle (ooh that is going to make the spell checker go nuts) is the 3rd choice. She is the defending champ and is showing no indication in her recent outings of slowing down. Other than she appears to be in top form at the moment, what more is there to say here.
#5 Tuscan Evening rounds out the contender list in this top field as she returns to a distance that is certainly more to her liking. Fagettabout her last effort at 9 furlongs. This race is where she belongs.
Honestly, there is not much to choose from between these 4. If you want my advice I'd play whichever of the 4 has the longest odds and be very happy about my chances of winning
#2 Gotta Have Her
#4 Reba Is Tops
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle
#5 Tuscan Evening
Without comment here are my other Stakes pick for CRC today
Race 6 The Birdonthewire for 2 yo's 5.5 f
#8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
#5 Mr. Green
#7 Peace At Dawn
#3 Simplifying
Although I haven't been able to find it yet, you should be able to view my full analysis of this race at www.casetherace.com.
Race 7 The Florida Stallion My Dear Girl 400k for 2 yo fillies
#4 Winsockie
#6 Sweetlalabye
#1 Joanie's Catch
#5 Tillie The Tigress
Race 8 The Calder Oaks for 3yo fillies 75k
#6 Providanza
#3 Royal Card
#4 Fire Water
Race 9 The Florida Stallion In Reality for 2 yo's 400k
#6 Jackson Bend
#3 Thank U Philippe
#4 Bim Bam
#8 Allez Reef
Race 10 The Calder Derby(G3) for 3yo's 100k
#3 Sal the Barber (My pick 4 single)
#6 Grand Cash
#2 Livingston Street
#9 Pound Foolish
Race 12 The Cassidy for fillies, 2yo's 75k
#2 Sweet Like Sugar
#7 Rosebud's Ridge
#1 Lavender's Spirit
#6 Slavic Princess
Finally, just in case you're interested, my picks for the two races from Woodbine before I became aware of the conditions
Race 8 The Nearctic (G2)
#11 Jungle Wave
#1 Field Commission
#9 Hero's Reward
#4 Karakorum Elektra
Race 10 The Pattison Canadian International (G1)
#4 Just As Well
#7 Juke Box Jury
#3 Quijano
#8 Spice Route
That's it for this week. Enjoy the racing and Good Luck
I actually have the Nearctic and Candian International Races handicapped, but considering the current conditions, I feel that all that work is out the window into the bright Florida sunshine now. Instead, I will bring you the 11th race from Calder, the G3 Spendabuck Hcp and the Senator Ken Maddy Hdcp (G3) from Santa Anita.
As a bonus, to make up for the rainy/snowy Woodbine race, I will give you my stakes picks for the other Calder stakes on this big South Florida Racing day.
Now for race 11 from CRC
With the exception of Lady Shatzi who is making her North American debut from Peru, the horses running in this race are old friends who have frequently shared the same track.
Of this group, #9 Motovato, trained by Marty Wolfson and ridden by Eddie Castro is clearly the class of the field as the winner of 2 of the last 3 stakes he has run at Calder including a 2nd place finish behind the late Finallymadeit in the G3 Memorial Day Hdcp. I do have a race where I will try to beat Wolfson, just not this one.
The 2nd choice #10 Mambo Meister has spent most of the Summer running on grass but has also shown ability on dirt. Therefore, the surface switch should be of no consequence. Mambo Meister is a capable 4 year old who gets leading rider Manoel Cruz in the irons. Manny is definitely better on dirt than grass (a little CRC hint: I nearly always consider Cruz a bet against on turf). Mambo's last 3 have all been graded affairs up at Saratoga and Monmouth so he will definitely be feeling the class relief in this field.
The #4 Dream Maestro is getting little respect from the morning line maker at 12-1 and the DRF analysts not even getting a nod for 3rd position on the selection sheet. However the Maestro has run some good races and always seems to be hanging around in the money at the end. It may be true that Dream Maestro suffers a bit of seconditis with 9 places in 22 tries, but I don't see how you can completely discount this consistent contender. I wouldn't play him at 2-1 but 12-1 could be another story.
Finally the 4th choice is the #1 Imawildandcrazyguy who won on the slop last out. Really, this is more of a nod to the abilities of Eibar Coa who seems to dominate when he runs at Calder rather than the ability of this one time KY Derby entrant. However, Imawildandcrazyguy exhibits a lot of back class with winnings of $626,745 easily out distancing the other contenders in the field. Play only at a large price.
#9 Motovato
#10 Mambo Meister
#4 Dream Maestro
#1 Imawildandcrazyguy
Off to The Oak Tree at Santa Anita and the SKMaddyH at 6.5f.
The top choice #2 Gotta Have Her has been in the money for her last 8 and 9 of her last 10. She is 3 for 3 at this distance and has 4 for 8 winners at Santa Anita including a G2 win in the Palomar Hdcp last out. Just flat out looks like the one to beat to me.
Maybe #4 Reba Is Tops can be the one to do it. She probably needed her last, finishing 2nd in the Daisycutter at Del Mar and should move forward this time out. She will be tough to beat if she does. Joe Talamo gets the call. Joe and Reba have been a potent combo since teaming up 4 races ago with 2 firsts and 2 seconds. I expect more of the same here.
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle (ooh that is going to make the spell checker go nuts) is the 3rd choice. She is the defending champ and is showing no indication in her recent outings of slowing down. Other than she appears to be in top form at the moment, what more is there to say here.
#5 Tuscan Evening rounds out the contender list in this top field as she returns to a distance that is certainly more to her liking. Fagettabout her last effort at 9 furlongs. This race is where she belongs.
Honestly, there is not much to choose from between these 4. If you want my advice I'd play whichever of the 4 has the longest odds and be very happy about my chances of winning
#2 Gotta Have Her
#4 Reba Is Tops
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle
#5 Tuscan Evening
Without comment here are my other Stakes pick for CRC today
Race 6 The Birdonthewire for 2 yo's 5.5 f
#8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
#5 Mr. Green
#7 Peace At Dawn
#3 Simplifying
Although I haven't been able to find it yet, you should be able to view my full analysis of this race at www.casetherace.com.
Race 7 The Florida Stallion My Dear Girl 400k for 2 yo fillies
#4 Winsockie
#6 Sweetlalabye
#1 Joanie's Catch
#5 Tillie The Tigress
Race 8 The Calder Oaks for 3yo fillies 75k
#6 Providanza
#3 Royal Card
#4 Fire Water
Race 9 The Florida Stallion In Reality for 2 yo's 400k
#6 Jackson Bend
#3 Thank U Philippe
#4 Bim Bam
#8 Allez Reef
Race 10 The Calder Derby(G3) for 3yo's 100k
#3 Sal the Barber (My pick 4 single)
#6 Grand Cash
#2 Livingston Street
#9 Pound Foolish
Race 12 The Cassidy for fillies, 2yo's 75k
#2 Sweet Like Sugar
#7 Rosebud's Ridge
#1 Lavender's Spirit
#6 Slavic Princess
Finally, just in case you're interested, my picks for the two races from Woodbine before I became aware of the conditions
Race 8 The Nearctic (G2)
#11 Jungle Wave
#1 Field Commission
#9 Hero's Reward
#4 Karakorum Elektra
Race 10 The Pattison Canadian International (G1)
#4 Just As Well
#7 Juke Box Jury
#3 Quijano
#8 Spice Route
That's it for this week. Enjoy the racing and Good Luck
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Breeder's Cup Scramble
Happy to be back in the saddle this week. Sorry about lack of posts last two weekends but sometimes personal and professional obligations just get in the way. I'd rather not do something at all than do it half-assed. After all, we've all got to have priorities.
Realistically, today is the last weekend for Breeder's Cup entries and wannabes to show their stuff, get tuned up for the big races, or just plain find out if they can run with the big dogs. With that thought in mind, Public Handicapper has 2 races from Keeneland and 2 from Santa Anita all of which have implications for the upcoming Breeder's Cup races now less than a month away.
The first race open for discussion is race 8 from Keeneland, The Dixiana Breeders' Futurity for 2 year olds contested at a mile and sixteenth.
I love 2 year old racing, which is a good thing as I get my fair share of it here in South Florida over the summer. Now we've moved from those ridiculous 2f affairs of early April to some real racing distances.
Two year olds are still learning to race and one thing I like to look for as the babies stretch out is those that look as if they get it rather than those which just break from the gate running all out until they can't go no more.
One horse in this race which certainly meets the aforementioned criterion is the #2 Backtalk trained by Thomas Amoss. Back Talk is already a multiple graded stakes winner and I expect him to bounce back after a wide trip in the Hopeful Stakes last out.
One knock against Backtalk we be how well he will take to the surface change. However the Oct. 5 6f work out at a respectable 1:12 4/5 tells me that the surface will not be an issue.
The 2nd choice for this race has yet to break his maiden. I suppose you could say he's a multiple graded stakes runner up. Those Beyer's figures look really nice and Lookin At Lucky has done nothing but flatter #7 Make Music for Me by winning the G1 Norfolk last Sunday at Santa Anita. Make Music for Me is another 2 yo that has shown some ability to hold his powder. Now if he can just get up to the line in time we may see some real fireworks.
The 3rd choice has merely won a maiden race at Saratoga and has to start from the outside post to boot. But if anyone can figure out a way to overcome a race course obstacle it will be Julien Leparoux on board #14 Stately Victor. Stately Victor is trained by Michael Maker.
Maker is a trainer that doesn't get as much press as others. He simply goes quietly about his business winning at a 25% clip year after year.
Stately Victor scored his maiden win at today's distance over the Saratoga grass posting an 80 Beyer in the process. Word is that good turf form usually translates well to poly form so the surface switch is not nearly as much a concern as the post. Look for Stately Victor at least somewhere underneath in the exotics if not in the winner's circle.
The fourth choice is the undefeated #1 Dixie Band. One reason Wayne Catalano is such a winner is he has a knack for placing his charges in races they can win, and Dixie Band has been no exception.
If there is any way to knock an unbeaten horse, the DRF has tried to do so in their closer look comment that the fillies ran faster in a later race on the same card as his last outing. You may take the comment for what its worth. Last time I looked there weren't any fillies running in the race and fillies seem to have been making it a habit of beating their brethren lately.
Another horse that may be live here, but I don't like the short break (14 days) is #6 Noble's Promise.
Top Choices
#2 Backtalk
#7 Make Music for Me
#14 Stately Victor
#1 Dixie Band
The next race to look at is...the next race at Keeneland or race 9 The Shadwell Turf Mile (G1).
As of this writing the Turf Course is soft and #1 Yorktown and #3 Wise River are scratched.
The soft going will be right up the top choice's alley the #2 Mr. Sidney. Mr. Sidney is 4 for 4 at this distance. Forget about the Arlington Million. Mr. Sidney was out of his element there. Mr. Sidney has won the G1 Maker's Mark Mile here at Keeneland and the G2 Firecracker at Churchill Downs over yielding courses so he definitely has the credentials for win here.
However, Mr Sidney is not a "stone cold lock" in here because there is another horse running that has had a terrific Summer. Long time readers of the report may recall the hunch play from Gulfstream Park way back at the beginning of the year with Justenuffhumor. Well, it turns out you could've ridden that hunch all year long as Justenuffhumor has done nothing but get better and win since January. Now he returns to the site of his only defeat.
Justenuffhumor has improved his Beyer every time he has raced (54, 86, 91, 94, 99, 103, 106). This streak can't go on forever. Sooner or later he has to have traffic problems, not like a surface, or just plain have an off day. I'm going to bet that today is that day. Still, he remains the 2nd choice #7 Justenuffhumor.
The third choice is no stranger to winning on soft grass. #5 Battle of Hastings has had a pretty good Summer himself and surprisingly to me is not a bad miler in his own right although I still believe that more distance suits him better.
Finally the fourth choice is strictly an angle play. #9 Court Vision is making his first start for Richard Dutrow. You can think what you like about Dick, but whether he does it honestly or not, horses that start first time out for him win 30% of the time. So don't ignore this one.
Choices
#2 Mr. Sidney
#7 Justenuffhumor
#5 Battle of Hastings
#9 Court Vision
Now moving on to the 6th race at Santa Anita the 24th running of The Oak Tree Mile (G2).
The top choice for this race has the tactical speed needed to either go to the lead or sit just of the pace as tactics dictate, is 2 for 2 at the distance and is coming out of two tough Saratoga races against 3 yo phenom Justenuffhumor. #9 Cowboy Cal gets the call as the top choice here. Garrett Gomez gets the call and with the recent form Cowboy Cal has been showing I think he is going to be tough to beat in here.
There are a few others that might get to the wire first and the 2nd choice for that honor would be #4 Global Hunter. Global Hunter turns back to a better distance after running 8th in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Looked to me like he never really got into that race. I prefer to look at the two races sandwiched in between the two 10 furlong debacles to get a better idea of the Hunter's ability at a mile. Global Hunter can win this race and may give a decent price in the process.
Another kinda sneaky horse in here is the #10 Whatsthescript coming in fresh for John Sadler who is 25% with a +ROI for horses off for 61-180 days. In case you think this may be too tough a spot to comeback in I will point out that Whatsthescript finished 3rd behind Goldikova and Kip Deville in last year's BC Mile after a similar layoff. Whatsthescript is 4 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 on the SA turf and should feel right at home here.
Finally I just have to throw in a tepid 4th choice here, #7 Monterrey Jazz. Monterrey Jazz clearly did not take to the Del Mar turf after a good Hollywood meet. In addition, the Winter Santa Anita meet was nothing to write home about either. However, MJ has run well here in the past and gets a positive jockey change in the person of Hall of Famer Mike Smith. Its a long shot and chances are MJ will run out of gas again, but then again...
Choices
#9 Cowboy Cal
#4 Global Hunter
#10 Whatsthescript
#7 Monterrey Jazz
Ok, I'm running out of steam here, good thing there is only one more to go. The 7th race from Santa Anita The Goodwood (G1) for 3 and up
I love it when the connections take a horse out of his element, like running on turf a race before a big one such as this because it helps to darken the form just enough to take less savvy players off him. Such is the case with my top pick here, #2 Tiago.
Tiago comes into this race fresh with only his 2nd race since February. With regular rider Mike Smith on board look for Tiago to be sweeping up wide and late (does Smith know any other way to ride?).
Tiago is 8 times ITM with 4 wins in 8 tries at the distance and has won over 1.5 million at Santa Anita. Look for him to add to that total today.
The 2nd choice is #4 Colonel John who had a terrible trip in the Pacific Classic. Look for the Colonel to improve on that effort with some better luck today.
The question about the 3rd choice #10 Mine That Bird in my mind is whether or not he is legit or merely a flash in the pan. We'll find out a lot about that today. The Bird has been working well over the course and I understand Woolley is happy with the way he has been running.
The Bird also gets reunited with his Derby rider Calvin Borel. However, Cali is a long way from Kentucky and the riding styles on the cushion are not the same as at Churchill. I'm not sure Calvin will make the adjustment.
Finally, I have to throw in Tres Borrachos as the 4th. If there was any other speed in this race, Tres would not get mentioned; however, this is the only horse in this race that has shown any desire to show the way. Joe Talamo knows how to ride so don't be shocked if today is the day Tres Borrachos wires the field.
Choices
#2 Tiago
#4 Colonel John
#10 Mine That Bird
#5 Tres Borrachos
By the way, commencing next week and continuing for a total of 4 weeks I will be a guest commentator for Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. I will choose one race on the Saturday card for Calder Race Course and offer my own unique perspective on the race. I'm really looking forward to the opportunity to perhaps shed some light on the racing at my home track.
Until the next post. Good luck
Realistically, today is the last weekend for Breeder's Cup entries and wannabes to show their stuff, get tuned up for the big races, or just plain find out if they can run with the big dogs. With that thought in mind, Public Handicapper has 2 races from Keeneland and 2 from Santa Anita all of which have implications for the upcoming Breeder's Cup races now less than a month away.
The first race open for discussion is race 8 from Keeneland, The Dixiana Breeders' Futurity for 2 year olds contested at a mile and sixteenth.
I love 2 year old racing, which is a good thing as I get my fair share of it here in South Florida over the summer. Now we've moved from those ridiculous 2f affairs of early April to some real racing distances.
Two year olds are still learning to race and one thing I like to look for as the babies stretch out is those that look as if they get it rather than those which just break from the gate running all out until they can't go no more.
One horse in this race which certainly meets the aforementioned criterion is the #2 Backtalk trained by Thomas Amoss. Back Talk is already a multiple graded stakes winner and I expect him to bounce back after a wide trip in the Hopeful Stakes last out.
One knock against Backtalk we be how well he will take to the surface change. However the Oct. 5 6f work out at a respectable 1:12 4/5 tells me that the surface will not be an issue.
The 2nd choice for this race has yet to break his maiden. I suppose you could say he's a multiple graded stakes runner up. Those Beyer's figures look really nice and Lookin At Lucky has done nothing but flatter #7 Make Music for Me by winning the G1 Norfolk last Sunday at Santa Anita. Make Music for Me is another 2 yo that has shown some ability to hold his powder. Now if he can just get up to the line in time we may see some real fireworks.
The 3rd choice has merely won a maiden race at Saratoga and has to start from the outside post to boot. But if anyone can figure out a way to overcome a race course obstacle it will be Julien Leparoux on board #14 Stately Victor. Stately Victor is trained by Michael Maker.
Maker is a trainer that doesn't get as much press as others. He simply goes quietly about his business winning at a 25% clip year after year.
Stately Victor scored his maiden win at today's distance over the Saratoga grass posting an 80 Beyer in the process. Word is that good turf form usually translates well to poly form so the surface switch is not nearly as much a concern as the post. Look for Stately Victor at least somewhere underneath in the exotics if not in the winner's circle.
The fourth choice is the undefeated #1 Dixie Band. One reason Wayne Catalano is such a winner is he has a knack for placing his charges in races they can win, and Dixie Band has been no exception.
If there is any way to knock an unbeaten horse, the DRF has tried to do so in their closer look comment that the fillies ran faster in a later race on the same card as his last outing. You may take the comment for what its worth. Last time I looked there weren't any fillies running in the race and fillies seem to have been making it a habit of beating their brethren lately.
Another horse that may be live here, but I don't like the short break (14 days) is #6 Noble's Promise.
Top Choices
#2 Backtalk
#7 Make Music for Me
#14 Stately Victor
#1 Dixie Band
The next race to look at is...the next race at Keeneland or race 9 The Shadwell Turf Mile (G1).
As of this writing the Turf Course is soft and #1 Yorktown and #3 Wise River are scratched.
The soft going will be right up the top choice's alley the #2 Mr. Sidney. Mr. Sidney is 4 for 4 at this distance. Forget about the Arlington Million. Mr. Sidney was out of his element there. Mr. Sidney has won the G1 Maker's Mark Mile here at Keeneland and the G2 Firecracker at Churchill Downs over yielding courses so he definitely has the credentials for win here.
However, Mr Sidney is not a "stone cold lock" in here because there is another horse running that has had a terrific Summer. Long time readers of the report may recall the hunch play from Gulfstream Park way back at the beginning of the year with Justenuffhumor. Well, it turns out you could've ridden that hunch all year long as Justenuffhumor has done nothing but get better and win since January. Now he returns to the site of his only defeat.
Justenuffhumor has improved his Beyer every time he has raced (54, 86, 91, 94, 99, 103, 106). This streak can't go on forever. Sooner or later he has to have traffic problems, not like a surface, or just plain have an off day. I'm going to bet that today is that day. Still, he remains the 2nd choice #7 Justenuffhumor.
The third choice is no stranger to winning on soft grass. #5 Battle of Hastings has had a pretty good Summer himself and surprisingly to me is not a bad miler in his own right although I still believe that more distance suits him better.
Finally the fourth choice is strictly an angle play. #9 Court Vision is making his first start for Richard Dutrow. You can think what you like about Dick, but whether he does it honestly or not, horses that start first time out for him win 30% of the time. So don't ignore this one.
Choices
#2 Mr. Sidney
#7 Justenuffhumor
#5 Battle of Hastings
#9 Court Vision
Now moving on to the 6th race at Santa Anita the 24th running of The Oak Tree Mile (G2).
The top choice for this race has the tactical speed needed to either go to the lead or sit just of the pace as tactics dictate, is 2 for 2 at the distance and is coming out of two tough Saratoga races against 3 yo phenom Justenuffhumor. #9 Cowboy Cal gets the call as the top choice here. Garrett Gomez gets the call and with the recent form Cowboy Cal has been showing I think he is going to be tough to beat in here.
There are a few others that might get to the wire first and the 2nd choice for that honor would be #4 Global Hunter. Global Hunter turns back to a better distance after running 8th in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Looked to me like he never really got into that race. I prefer to look at the two races sandwiched in between the two 10 furlong debacles to get a better idea of the Hunter's ability at a mile. Global Hunter can win this race and may give a decent price in the process.
Another kinda sneaky horse in here is the #10 Whatsthescript coming in fresh for John Sadler who is 25% with a +ROI for horses off for 61-180 days. In case you think this may be too tough a spot to comeback in I will point out that Whatsthescript finished 3rd behind Goldikova and Kip Deville in last year's BC Mile after a similar layoff. Whatsthescript is 4 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 on the SA turf and should feel right at home here.
Finally I just have to throw in a tepid 4th choice here, #7 Monterrey Jazz. Monterrey Jazz clearly did not take to the Del Mar turf after a good Hollywood meet. In addition, the Winter Santa Anita meet was nothing to write home about either. However, MJ has run well here in the past and gets a positive jockey change in the person of Hall of Famer Mike Smith. Its a long shot and chances are MJ will run out of gas again, but then again...
Choices
#9 Cowboy Cal
#4 Global Hunter
#10 Whatsthescript
#7 Monterrey Jazz
Ok, I'm running out of steam here, good thing there is only one more to go. The 7th race from Santa Anita The Goodwood (G1) for 3 and up
I love it when the connections take a horse out of his element, like running on turf a race before a big one such as this because it helps to darken the form just enough to take less savvy players off him. Such is the case with my top pick here, #2 Tiago.
Tiago comes into this race fresh with only his 2nd race since February. With regular rider Mike Smith on board look for Tiago to be sweeping up wide and late (does Smith know any other way to ride?).
Tiago is 8 times ITM with 4 wins in 8 tries at the distance and has won over 1.5 million at Santa Anita. Look for him to add to that total today.
The 2nd choice is #4 Colonel John who had a terrible trip in the Pacific Classic. Look for the Colonel to improve on that effort with some better luck today.
The question about the 3rd choice #10 Mine That Bird in my mind is whether or not he is legit or merely a flash in the pan. We'll find out a lot about that today. The Bird has been working well over the course and I understand Woolley is happy with the way he has been running.
The Bird also gets reunited with his Derby rider Calvin Borel. However, Cali is a long way from Kentucky and the riding styles on the cushion are not the same as at Churchill. I'm not sure Calvin will make the adjustment.
Finally, I have to throw in Tres Borrachos as the 4th. If there was any other speed in this race, Tres would not get mentioned; however, this is the only horse in this race that has shown any desire to show the way. Joe Talamo knows how to ride so don't be shocked if today is the day Tres Borrachos wires the field.
Choices
#2 Tiago
#4 Colonel John
#10 Mine That Bird
#5 Tres Borrachos
By the way, commencing next week and continuing for a total of 4 weeks I will be a guest commentator for Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. I will choose one race on the Saturday card for Calder Race Course and offer my own unique perspective on the race. I'm really looking forward to the opportunity to perhaps shed some light on the racing at my home track.
Until the next post. Good luck
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