Public Handicapper February 28th

Once again your intrepid handicapper is back with another collection of SWAG's for the publichandicapper.com contest.

This week we have two races each from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. One race at each is on the grass for older horses and the 2nd races are on the main track with Derby implications for 3 year olds.

Todd Pletcher's Take The Points was entered in both the Fountain of Youth and the Sham. However, Pletcher is opting for softer competition (IMHO) the Sham at SA.

So now for the Selections:

Race 8 at GP is the 150k Canadian Turf Hdcp.

I should point out right off the bat, for any who might be thinking of considering Delightful Kiss in this race that he, by the admission of his trainer in the DRF http://www.drf.com/news/article/101921.html, is not well intended for this race. Trainer Pete Anderson is considering this as a prep race for Dubai. Of course, he goes on to say something like, to paraphrase Drago from I think it is Rocky 4, if he wins he wins. But my experience has been, if a trainer comes out and tells you he's using a race as a prep race, believe him. Therefore, I don't even consider Delightful Kiss to be a win contender in this race. If we can throw out DK, at least from the win position, then that could make this a very nice betting race for those of us who are better read than others. That being said, here are my picks for the Canadian Turf Hdcp.


#8 Just As Well
3-1
9-2
#7 Vanquisher
7-2
5-1
#10 Bujagali
9-2
7-1
#2 Sporting Art
6-1
9-1

#8 Overachieved last out, Leparoux stays on. #7 May not belong here but showed big closing kick in winning last. #10 is the only committed pure front runner in the race. We have not had much rain this winter and speed is starting to hold up well on the turf course. Could be worth a shot at a price. #2 comes off a long layoff, but KD took the mount and Christophe Clemente is always dangerous on turf.

Next up is the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes to be run at a mile


#9 Capt. Candyman Can
2-1
3-1
#7 Beethoven
9-2
7-1
#3 Notonthesamepage
5-1
8-1
#2 Theregoesjojo
6-1
9-1

#9 has the tactical ability to deal with whatever pace scenario thrown at him. Watch a replay of the Hutcheson where he stalks the pace setters, throttles down to move to the outside, and then reaccelerates to win more easily that the lenghts beaten indicates. #7 got hung 4 wide into the first turn from the deadly outside post at the 1 1/8 Holy Bull. Made a good move to get into contention before running out of gas after running further than any other contender down stretch. #3 May have the early run to avoid the pitfalls of coming out of the 1M chute from an inside post, but there is a lot of speed in this race so he'll need a perfect trip.#2 had plenty left in the tank while winning last out. Not as accomplished as some others here but should be coming at the end.

Over at the other coast. No, not Tampa. The OTHER coast

The 100k Crystal Water Handicap for older California Bredsa


#6 Lucky J H
2-1
3-1
#4 Liberian Freighter
3-1
9-2
#5 Bold Cheiftan
7-2
5-1



#6 Shows a versatile running style and is capable of adjusting to the existing pace condition of the race. Comes 3rd off layoff for Carla Gaines and I can excuse last effort on an off Turf Course #4 should have the controlling speed in a relatively light field, seems to make it a habit of fading near the end but could go wire to wire if allowed to relax early #5 would probably beat this field for fun if well intended in first race after a 4 month hiatus. Might win any way, but I'd need a price for this race.

And last but not least.

The G3 Sham


P# 9th Race

Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#12 Take The Points
3-2
5-2
#3 The Pamplemousse
3-2
5-2






I really see this as a two horse race. The Pamplemousse had it all his own way getting to control the pace in a short field for the G3 San Rafael. Therefore the strength of that performance may be overrated. Take The Points was also entered in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but perhaps Pletcher sees some easy pickin's in moving out west instead. Other than these two, it is really hard to make a case for anyone else in the race from my POV.

Hooky!

I got to play hooky from work today, sort of. Having a 1:00 dentist appointment, conveniently located near Gulfstream Park, I boogied on out of that dentist's office as soon as they would let me go and managed to get to good ol' GP in time to see the 3rd race go off.

Ah great joy under partly cloudy skies and a very pleasant 74 degrees (I'm too lazy to use superscript). Even managed to win an investment on the 9-1 Mi Carola in the 7th race making for an extra enjoyable day, indeed.

Also watched Kiaran McLaughlin sweat out the race of the heavily favored Hellvelyn who barely beat at the wire the speedy Piratesonthelake. "Never a doubt," he said.

I don't know what's going to happen to Magna Entertainment, but apparently the shopping, office, and entertainment complex located between the track and U.S. 1 is moving right along. There is a story at Miami Herald. com today that says the says the 85% completed project now has 50% of its space leased to prospective tenants. Such tenants will include Crate and Barrel (who needs crates and barrels?) and The Container Store. In addition there will be up to 10 restaurants and other boutique, specialty type stores. In addition, the developer has cut a deal with the Hallandale Beach City Commision that gives them a share of the projected increased tax revenue projected to reach up to $900k annually. That is of course, if anyone is still in business by 2010. Here's the link if your interested in the entire article. http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/922000.html

I noticed that mention of Magna Entertainment was absent. I have no particular love for MEC. I really don't know that much about them except that they are basically broke. Still, I would hate to lose the Gulfstream Winter racing season. Year round racing at Calder Race Course just won't cut it. I love the full competitive fields. It's so much easier finding overlays among the throngs of socialites and vacationers just out for a daily lark than entering the shark pit and short fields at Calder Race Course.

And speaking of short fields, during my phone conversation with JJ Tuttle (remember him?) he strongly suggested betting the longest shot in a short field. Now a short field is defined as 7 or fewer horses. He wrote about this angle in one of his books, I forget which one. Of course, he offered no data to support this thesis, but because this one is a no brainer to test, I have decided to put it to the test. So far this season, this has been a winning angle at Gulfstream with a 10% hit rate out of 50 such races. The angle shows a $175.80 profit based on a $2.00 win bet for each longest shot contender. However, after going back through all of Gulfstream's charts for the 2009 meet so far, I started on CRC. I haven't gotten very far yet, but after 22 qualifying races the angle has been shut out. Now it is possible that tracks like Calder attract a savvier clientele regarding the handicapping of horses than does Gulfstream Park. I will continue tracking Gulfstream through the remainder of the season and work my way back through all the Calder charts that I have. I don't think I have all the charts for CRC on my hard drive, but I think I can get them if I look hard enough. If anyone want's to share in this little project, I suggest you choose an upper echelon track like, say Santa Anita and a more pedestrian track such as Golden Gate Fields. As for me, I'll be tracking the upcoming Keeneland and Churchill Downs meets. I'll keep you up to date with my results. Who knows, maybe I'll owe Mr. Tuttle an apology.

See ya next time.

Some Days You Get The Bear and ....

Yesterday was one of the days the bear got me, it happens and I don't worry about it too much although I did nearly throw my binder when my playing in selection in the 8th race at Gulfstream Park reared at the start. It was one of those days.



I did get to meet Michael Nikolic, the writer of Gathering The Wind http://blackwatchholdings.blogspot.com/. Meeting Michael was very enjoyable and it is always nice to put a face on a name. Only hope I didn't ruin his day.



Meanwhile back to Saturday's results. If its any consolation, I didn't do any better in my other investments than I did with the stakes races.



The Mac Diamarda Stakes at Gulfstream was easily the most frustrating. Firstly because I was there. And mostly because I got to sit there and watch the odds sit right at my overlay points on Pressious Passion, Quasicobra, and Always First. At first, all three horses were overlays with both Quasicobra and Always First both at 8-1 or higher, which would have been a no play. Pressious Passion sat at 5-1 for most of the betting until, maybe 3 minutes before post. Finally, Pressious Passion dropped to 9-2 leaving me with Always First at 7-1 and Quasicobra at 10-1 making the bet to win on Always First with the exacta of Pressious Passion, Quasicobra, and Spice Route over Always First. A look at the results chart of the race shows me that Always First was only $0.10 away from being 8-1 and would have had a nice exacta. The cliche about football is that its a game of inches. Horse racing is more about inches in more ways than football can ever dream about.

Meanwhile, over at the Tampa Bay Stakes. Classic Campaign gave it a good go before being edged at the wire by a neck. Technically, there was no overlay in that race so no detriment to my little record on the left. Unfortunately for me, and this is why I do so much better with a simulcast monitor I can invest from, Classic Campaign dropped from a very nice over layed 8-1 to 7-2 between 5 MTP and Post, actual final odds were 3.9 to 1. Since the 28 to 1 long shot, Victory Alleged indeed, outfinished all my contenders, I came up empty there as well.

Meanwhile, as the bad streak continues, at Turfway in the Valdale Stakes. Spoilher was the play. Unfortunately, Spoilher did not finish. I didn't play that race because I was on my way to the Florida Panthers game by then. However, if I had played that race, Spoilher would have been the 3rd horse I played in 2 weeks that broke down. Bad luck for me and even worse for the poor horses. Trainers and owners should start paying me to not play their horses.

Later at Santa Anita, at least Bel Air Sizzle gave me a conteder with a picture in the winner's circle even if he did have to share the spotlight with One Bad Kitty. However, the play for me was Christiana's Heat at 4-1. Good thing I was at the hockey game by then. Still, it has to count against me as far as the little results thingy on the left goes.

That's racing! The great thing is there is always another race just around the corner. I have to go out now and buy a new mattress.

P H picks for Feb. 21

It's another beautiful day for racing in Sunny South Florida at the Hallandale Beach Gargantuan known as Gulfsteam Park Racing and Casino. What? They have a casino here? Anyhow, I know you are all waiting to see what I've come up with this week. Especially after last weeks lowly 1 for 3 showing ( 0 for 2 if you foolishly followed my betting instructions). The betting instructions can be found in last weeks post, so, without further ado, here are the Saturday Public Handicapper.com picks

First up is the Mac Diarmida Stakes G2 for Four Year Olds and Upward from Gulfstream Park
1 and 3/8 miles on the Turf

#6 Always First
3-1
9-2
#12 Pressious Passion
7-2
5-1
#3 Spice Route
4-1
6-1
#5 Quasicobra
6-1
9-1
#6 G3 winner loves distance comes in fresh #12 extreme outside post prevents from favoritism, can still win here #3 Has run very well in G1 distance races at Woodbine #5 With Leparoux on top is just the kind of long shot I love on the grass.

Excuse the brief analysis, I was doing that one late last night. Now, moving on.

Tampa Bay Stakes 150k for Four Year Olds and Upward 1 and 1/16 miles on the Turf.


#7 Furthest Land
3-1
9-2
#3 Classic Campaign
5-2
5-1
#4 Society's Chairman
7-2
5-1
#1 Atoned
5-1
8-1

This week I am again going for the invaders at Tampa Bay. You'd think I'd learn, but I just didn't think that much of the local talent. #7 Top choice is a Michael Maker horse who showed a great closing kick in winning a 75k Optional Claimer last out at Gulfstream. Has won three in a row and makes stakes debut. #3 ships over from the Fair Grounds for Bill Mott drops down out of a 4th place Grade 3 effort and should find the company a little easier here. #4 Just missed in the Ft. Lauderdale to Kiss the Kid and could run good enough here. #1 is the only Graded stakes winner in the field, but the inside post is 0 for 27 so I have down graded Atoned's chances. In addition, Pletcher had to bring his 2nd stringer, DeCarlo, over for this race as J.R. chose to stay at Gulfstream. What does that tell you?

Then up to Florence, Ky for the 50k Valdale Stakes for Three Year Old Fillies to be contested at a mile over whatever that fake stuff is called they use there.


#10 Spoilher
3-1
9-2
#3 Tacky Cat
7-2
5-1
#6 Emma Darling
4-1
6-1
#7 Karacuda
6-1
9-1

Many of these horse faced each other in the Cincinnati Trophy, but I'm going to the speed horse in the race as the Spoilher. #10 crushed on non-conditioned Allowance field last out at the distance and is 2 for 3 over the course. #3 winner of the C. T. didn't wait to break her maiden before winning C.T. and should be in a good position for a repeat performance. #6 Finished 3rd in C.T. after going 6 wide. The distance should be a better fit here. Michael Maker is a 30% trainer and is an automatic bet in almost every training category. #7 Has lost to the 3 and 6 before, but has run to par so would not completely surprise if she turned the tables here.

Last, but certainly never least, The Valentine Dancer Handicap 100k for California Bred Fillies and Mares 4 Years Old and Upward to be contested at 1 Mile on the Turf.


#2 Christiana's Heat
5-2
4-1
#7 Tiz A Blend
4-1
6-1
#3 Bel Air Sizzle
5-1
8-1
#11 Gambler's Justice
6-1
9-1

Just a note about this race if you've been following the Jockey's series on Animal Planet. It will be interesting to see if Aaron Gryder can stay on One Bad Kitty in the gate today. However the #2 horse has been showing excellent recent form and should be the one to beat . #7 Don't be fooled by the two recent outings by this one as she returns to her favored surface, the projected improvement should not be a surprise. #3 Disappointed on Sunshine Million day, but a return to home and a positive jockey change to Go Go Gomez may be the tonic this one needs #11 This one seems to perk up for the state bred races and the outside post could be a help. Still only 2nd time on grass and coming off a 2 month layoff so some discretion is in order here.

Well that's all for this time. I'm and hour and 40 minutes from leaving the starting gate for GP myself. Here's hoping I did better than last week. And if you want a really hot tip, just bet on the horses I didn't mention and you'll probably do alright.

Equal Time

A post or two ago I posted a review of Joseph J. Tuttle's book,"The Tuttle Way: Applied Methodologies On "How To" Interpret The Racing Form From A Winning Horseplayer". I also posted the same review on Amazon.

Now I have no desire to get into an internet shouting match, but I would like for you to read the authors response to my review. I'll let you, dear reader, be the judge.

joseph tuttle says:

Sir,

Evidently, you don't very much care that you're my only 1-star review; you only feel this insatiable need to "be heard"!!! Even though the long-winded nature of your review absolutely screams "COMPETITOR", or at the very least a friend of one. This is still America, and you're entitled to your opinion. But, that good sir is pretty pathetic, in my humble opinion. Have you even tried to put my methodologies to work? There's a very old saying professor...."Don't knock it, until you try it!" I make quite the comfortable living wagering on horses and/or sports. And, I've done so for almost 17 years! Go to www.thetuttleway.com to see my immense 152IQ at work, or to see that my #1 strength is my accessibility.

Below, is my home phone number, I would be more than happy to help you understand any/all of my theorems.

One more thing..... YOUR READING COMPREHENSION SKILLS ARE QUITE LACKING!!!!! I said that 90% of horses "switch leads" instinctively, OUT OF NECESSITY! The ones that are able to do it "on command" are the classy ones. You literally reworded my text, and on the basis of that alone I could have your review removed, but I won't.....BECAUSE, I HAVE CLASS!!!!!

Phone no. removed to protect Mr. Tuttle's privacy....Feel free to call me, if you dare, since you're also in Florida!

p.s. My Father was a harness horseman (primarilly), and died at age 83 in June of 2005. He wasn't famous, at all, and I certainly would hope that you might not be able to find anything on him, at google.

Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

Now, the interesting thing is, I have twice spoken by telephone with Mr. Tuttle and he has since sent me about 5 of his books by PDF file. Actually, Mr. Tuttle was quite genial over the phone and it was a pleasure discussing his books and ideas. I look forward to many more meetings of mind with Mr. Tuttle.

St. Valentine's Day Massacre

Well the sad news is Voorhee's Ballad, a 5 year old horse sired by Mecke out of Sweet Ballad by Saint Ballado, broke down in the first race yesterday and was euthanized on the track. Voorhee's Ballad had a lifetime record of 37 4-9-6 with $164,109. R.I.P.

In the 3rd race, the winner, Meli, did not get her picture taken as she was vanned off the track. I'm sorry to say Meli's condition is unknown to me at this time. Getting information on horse injuries is difficult to say the least.

Not a great day for the publichandicapper.com picks either. At least at Gulfstream I had the right horse on top, Duke Of Homberg; however, in the contest, I won't even get credit for that as I tried to get cute in the contest and get a better price with Adari. For investment purposes, the race was a pass.

In the remaining two races, I was completely off the board. I thought the invaders would fare much better at Tampa Bay Downs but was mistaken as all my contenders finished off the board. The correct wager, based on my contenders was Cliffy's Future who was never a factor in the race.

Meanwhile at Santa Anita, Mistical Plan was the play. Apparently, the folks at Santa Anita knew something I didn't as Mistical Plan was the longest price on the board and ran accordingly.

I'll try to do better next week.

Meanwhile, as I was entering my $0.50 Pick 4 wager at Gulfstream next to the $50.00 minimum bet window (catch the irony there?) a man comes up to the $50 min window and lays $1000.00 on the 2 at Aqueduct to win. Well your intrepid horseplayer figures this guy must be pretty confident to lay that much money on a horse to win. I looked up at the Aqueduct monitor and saw they were beginning to load. I went to an open wagering machine, and, miraculously, the machine accepted my voucher without a fuss. Then I had to find the Aqueduct track from among the other tracks button, and place my $5.00 investment. When I rechecked the monitor, I could see the race was already running. Hmmmm, what's up with that? At any rate, it turned out well for me. The "2" was the 2-1 2nd choice and, obviously, the inside speed on the Big A's inner track. The 2 wired the field, at least from the point where I joined the race, and paid $6.40.

So here's today's handicapping lesson. Hang out around the $50 minimum bet window and wait for the whales to come in and ride on their coattails.

Publichandicapper.com Contest Picks for Feb. 14: St. Valentine's Day Massacre?

Ok, today I begin my first day of accountability for my contest picks as I will begin filling in that little box on the left hand side.

First, let me spell out my betting rules up front, because there is no way I can possibly know which of my contenders I will play before I can see the actual odds. In fact, there is no way I can possibly know if I am even going to play a race until I see the actual odds.

My betting rules come straight out of Steve Fiero's book "The Four Corners of Horse Investing". I highly recommend this book. You will see two sets of odds for each contender. The lower of the two is what I consider to be the fair odds, or probability of the horse to win; the 2nd set is the minimum overlay odds I require for an investment. My odds line is completely qualitative and based on experience and intuition. If I ever find a reliable method of making a mathmatically sound method of creating an odds line without using a computer program, I'll use it.

I will bet whichever horse among my contenders is overlayed.

If two horses are overlayed, I will bet the horse with the lower odds as that is the one statistically most likely to win.

If three or four horses are overlayed, I will not play the race as that is an indication that I have missed something intrinsically important.

If two horses are overlayed at odds =or> 8:1 I will split my win bet between them.

If I have made my top choice 3-2 or less and the crowd agrees with that assessment, I will pass the race rather than bet against a "Legitimate Favorite". This is not usually an issue when I have 4 solid contenders.

If any contender is < 3-2 and no other entry is < 5-1 I will pass the race rather than play against a "Prohibitive Favorite"

I almost forgot the most important rule: No overlay, no play.

Those are Steve Fiero's basic rules for win betting.

Then what I like to do is play my overlay win choice underneath the other contenders in an exacta. This is not done in every case. For instance if my top choice is just barely an overlay, it is probably not a good value to pile on more with exacta bets. But if it is my 4th choice, many times the exact payout is more than I would've won with the win bet. Use discretion with this one.

Race 9 at GP is the Hallandale Beach Hdcp


#1 Duke of Homburg
3-1
9-2
#5 Tamoborim
7-2
5-1
#8 Lime Rickey
9-2
7-1
#10 Adari
6-1
9-1
#1 ran into trouble while making move in stretch could be first with a better trip. #5 Makes 2009 debut is flattered by win last out win field containing This One's For Phil, winner of the Sunshine Millions Dash #8 Lime Rickey overachieved in the Dania Beach Handicap in finishing 2nd at 17 to 1 last out gets the always dangerous Leparoux for the trip #10 made a big closing rush to finish 4th in the DBH, extra distance may help

Tampa Bay Downs Race 10 Sam F. Davis-G3


#7 Free Country
2-1
3-1
#5 Atomic Rain
5-2
4-1
#6 Cliffy's Future
4-1
6-1



#7 Invaders descend upon Tampa to scoop up some easy Graded stakes pickings. The cream of the GP jockey colony goes to the west coast and Desormeaux on undefeated Free Country is the top pick here. #5 JR Velazquez has eschewed some pricey races at GP for what he must feel is an easy spot here aboard Atomic Rain. However AR may not get an easy lead today with front-running A.P. Cardinal in the field. #6 ships down from Aqueduct and has had 3 weeks to acclimate to Florida's warmer climate. Paco Lopez was the hot apprentice at Calder this summer and has continued to dominate as a journeyman rider at Tampa. He'll be one to watch for the future.

Santa Anita Race 9 Santa Maria Hdcp-G1


#11 Leah's Secret
3-1
9-2
#4 Mistical
7-2
5-1
#10 Visit
4-1
6-1
#7 Bsharpsonata
6-1
9-1
#11 Ended 2008 campaign with two G2 wins and started 2009 with easy win after freshining in a race the connections probably didn't even care that much about. #4 Speed stretching out is always dangerous, I'd be happy to play this one at the right odds and even happier underneath in the exacta. #10 G3 winner in GB has yet to prove mettle in States. Go Go Gomez takes the irons making automatic contender. #7 The other Pletcher entry won't have Indian Blessing to contend with here, but I think the higher contenders may be more accomplished excepting Visit.

Turf Paradise Race 8 Phoenix Gold Cup Handicap

I'm going to cop out and pass on the Turf Paradise race because I don't really know the track, trainers, horses, or Jockeys. However, if you put a gun to my head I'll take the likely chalk, Machismo followed by Northern Soldier, and White Spar. I will use these picks for the publichandicappers contest just because, but will not even think about playing this race.

That's it for today. Good Luck to all you weekend warriors out there

Book Review!!!

Since I've finished with the Thursday past performances for Fair Grounds and Golden Gate Fields and the Saturday Gulfstream Park PP's are not yet available, I have a little time for another adventure into the world of book reviews.

But first, you will notice a little addition on the left side of the page. I occasionally offer opinions on the outcome of races and decided, in the interest of full disclosure, you the reader should know how much my opinion is worth.

Now, if I may toot my own horn, I told you I love to play the Fair Grounds and came through with two winners out of three races. Out at Santa Anita, I didn't fare so well. I, like many others I've come to learn, thought I could beat Cowboy Cal. Well, I didn't, so sue me. No wait a minute, don't do that!

Todd Pletcher is one of the more confounding big name trainers for me. Don't get me wrong, I love Todd. He even posed for my wife at Gulfstream a couple of weeks ago. That picture is in a previous edition. However, it seems I'm always on the wrong side of the bet when it comes to Mr. Pletcher. If I try to beat him, he wins. If I jump on his band wagon, he's up the track and out of the money. Do you have anyone like that? Of course you do.

Now on to the review.

Today I take a critical look at "The Tuttle Way: Applied Methodologies On "How To" Interpret The Racing Form From A Winning Horseplayer" by Joseph J. Tuttle

In the beginning of the book, Mr. Tuttle seeks to establish is bona fides as a horseman by informing us his father, Seymour Tuttle, was involved in the training of horses. Naturally, I promptly did a Google search which came up empty. It's not that I can't take Mr. Tuttle's word for it, but his credibility would be bolstered if I could have found some reference to a Seymour Tuttle within, say the first 5 or 6 pages of 19,900 results. No, I did not go through all 19,900 results, but you may feel free to, if you must.

The 172 page paper-back consists of mostly large type face, which is easy on the eyes. It's also easy on a writer that really doesn't have much to say.

He opens with a brief history of the Daily Racing Form and dwells a lot on the unreliability of Beyer's figures before finally admitting that he does use them. This in itself is not so bad. I agree that Beyer's figures sort of need to be taken in context of class and pace.

Then we come to something I find particularly off-putting as Mr. Tuttle makes the claim that 81% of all races are won by horses that have had 29 to 119 days off. Is this really true? It may well be, but I'm a scientist by profession, so my first question is "What is the source of this data and how was it derived?" Alas there is no answer to this query. The reader is supposed to simply accept this number on faith. He does allow for exceptions such as the Preakness about which he writes,” You can count the number of Preakness winners on one hand, which won that race after skipping the Kentucky Derby, over the past twenty-five years." Note the excessive use of commas in that sentence is the writers.

He tells us a main characteristic of a horse with "class" is the ability to switch leads and that 90% of all horses switch leads instinctively. I know. A wild statistic thrown about with no validation. However, the real issue is, if 90% of all horses do this instinctively, does this mean that 90% of all horses are classy? That's sort of like saying 90% of all people are extraordinary. If 90% of all people are extraordinary, then that is the norm. Rather ordinary I'd say.

Now this is where the writer really loses me as we move into what I refer to as the,"Old wives tales." section of the book. And we're only on page 22. Watch out for those horses with 4 white socks as they are more likely to turn up lame. More prevalent among younger horses according to the author. Horses with prominent,"Blazes and Stars" on their faces will show or have a lot of front-running speed. Mr. Tuttle tells us that many prominent horseman hold to this belief; however, he neglects to name names. I'll have to ask Mr. Pletcher about this the next time I see him at Gulfstream. Oh yeah, I should add this, and you get this for free, always bet grey horses on grey days. That's a sure winning angle...Puhleeze.

Ahem, excuse my sarcasm.

Now in a portion of the book headed as (The Comment Line), Mr. Tuttle says he puts high value on the comment line because it tells you much about the company the horse has been keeping. Then, tangentially, moves onto video tape analysis and some sort of esoteric calculation involving how many horses a horse passes on average per race. I'm telling you, the book is full these rambling sort of right angle turns with no rhyme or reason.

I asked my wife, a natural handicapper in her own right (if only we could merge my analytical nature with her intuitive sense of body language of both people and horses, we'd be unstoppable), to read the 4 page section on "The Comment Line" and tell me what she learned about "The Comment Line". "Nothing", was her answer.

Chapter 3

We learn about his "universal" number, 20. We learn how to use this magical universal number to make the flawed DRF speed figure and track variant better through the use of a seemingly arbitrary constant. Why not seven? Much luckier than 20. Or three? Holy Trinity and all that. I guess Pi would be out of the question since it’s a non-repeating number, how would we know where to stop? Then we take this number and add it to the Beyer's number and divide the sum by 2 and, voila!, we have a new and improved speed figure. I think not.

Enough of this. The remainder of the book is full of similar nonsense and non-validated percentages and general arbitrariness all written in a very disorganized manner. I cannot bear to go on. Suffice it to say I give Mr. Tuttle's effort a firm up the track and out of the money rating. Save your money and pass this book.

I buy these books because I can't help myself. Use my addiction to your benefit and stay as far away from this book.

FYI. In the Jan/Feb issue of the Horseplayer Magazine there is a nice article by Prentice Manetter on playing the pick four. Since I sort of panned his book in my last review, I thought I'd at least give credit where credit is due.

Public Handicapper Quick Picks

Mundane day for racing at GP today. Could just as easily be at CRC, so I handicapped the day accordingly. Big Stakes day at Fair Grounds, one of my favorite tracks to play, with 3 PH races to pick. Add one from Santa Anita and you have the beginnning of a new contest.

I didn't win, or even come close, to winning The Winter of Our Discontent but did have a positive ROI for the contest.

Time is short and I lost my Fair Grounds analysis, long story, so you'll have to trust me.

Race 6


#8 Honest Man
3-1
9-2
#2 Good and Lucky
4-1
6-1
#1 Secret Getaway
9-2
7-1
#4 Grasshopper
5-1
8-1

Race 7


#7 Demarcation
3-1
9-2
#1 French Beret
7-2
5-1
#2 Jimmy Simms
9-2
7-1
#5 Diamond Tycoon
6-1
9-1

Race 9


#6 Friesen fire
3-1
9-2
#7 Giant Oak
7-2
5-1
#4 It Happened Again
4-1
6-1
#5 Uno Mas
6-1
9-1

And the Strub from Santa Anita where I am going against the favored Cowboy Cal (distance)


#5 Gio Ponti
3-1
9-2
#7 Nownownow
7-2
5-1
#1 Dixie Chatter
4-1
6-1
#9 Wishful Tomcat
6-1
9-1
#5 has demonstrated ability for the distance and the surface #7 I think this race sets up for closers and #7 qualifies on that count #1 Won the G1 Norfolk in '07 coming from off the pace. #9 will want to contend for the lead, but unlike Cowboy Cal, had won twice at the distance.

Nicanor

Nicanor, the brother of Barbaro, entered the walking ring at Gulfstream Park yesterday to a mild round of applause from the people gathered around the area. Despite the runnings of the Grade 3 Holy Bull possibly the first legitimate step for east coast 3 year olds on the road to the Kentucky Derby, and the G1 Donn Handicap featuring Albertus Maximus and the great Einstein, it was this, as of yet unaccomplished 3 year old maiden that many in the crowd came to see. I make this judgement based on how short the betting lines were for the feature 9th race after Nicanor had done his thing. Funny thing is, I didn't even realize Barbaro's brother was running until the night before when someone had told me.

I thought Nicanor looked to be in good condition, as far as this born and bred city-boy can tell about horses. I heard some people remark about how small he was; however, he didn't strike me as being particularly undersized.

At the first showing of the morning line, I was surprised to see him at 4-5. However, by post time the odds had floated up to a still unrealistic 5-2.

Nicanor was well behaved in the walking ring and has obviously been schooled before this race and had an idea of what to expect. Nicanor was a little fractious in the post parade, but nothing to bad for a first trip in a real race, just enough to show that he is still a little green.

By now, I'm sure you know the story how the race went. Not totally unexpected for a first timer. Even Michael Matz said in a pre-race interview that he felt Nicanor would need a trip around the track before getting serious about winning (I am paraphrasing and interpreting here). I have found that, for big races where trainers are actually interviewed before the race, you can tell alot about a horses chances by how the trainer speaks of him before the race.

Nicanor had trouble at the gate, made a nice run down the backstretch to, at least, make contact with the lead pack and then faded to be 10 of 12. I think his baskstretch move showed he has some potential, but we'll have to wait and see if this is the return of Barbaro.

Here are some pictures from the event.

Walking to the Paddock

Entering the Walking Ring

Taking a few laps

Peeking from behind the palm tree

Post Parade

He at least looks the part.

At the finish line

Time to dismount

Look's good with that Wind-Blown hair

Back to the Barn