No Public Handicapper picks this week. Taking the daughter to the University of Central Florida for an open house. Don't even know what the races are yet and won't have time to look at them.
However, not to leave you totally lost, I have the HANA race of the week. A $5000.00 claiming event for fillies and mares 3 and up who have never won two races. It is race 2 on your program and post time is 7:25.
My top choice for the race is the 2 horse Wynn For Mary who seems to have found a home and a distance in West Virginny. Since moving up from Tampa, the lightly raced 4 year old has won 2 of 4 and finished in the money the other two tries. In addition, stretching out to a mile seemed to be just what the doctor ordered as Wynn For Mary ran a 79 Brisnet Speed Figure compared to 61 in her previous race. I think she can move forward off of that effort. Of course 5k claimers for older non-winners of two don't exactly possess perfect choices. I generally shy away from low % trainers and jockeys, but this is Mountaineer and I didn't see a Pletcher or Dutrow entry, so I'll chance it if the odds stay at the morning line 4-1 or better.
The 2nd choice would probably be the top except for the 9th post which is statistically more difficult to win from at this distance. The 9 horse, Flaming Victory has shown good recent form, but consistency isn't exactly a forte of cheap claiming horses, and at 6 years of age she isn't likely to show much improvement.
The 3rd and 4th choice are the 4, Cat's Got Class, and the 5,Alibi Baby. Not much to choose from between them. Both have two wins in 21 tries. Cat's Got Class has at least shown the ability to pass some horses where as Alibi Baby has been kind of a Merry-Go-Round horse. Both have at least raced above par for the course at least once in their careers which is more than you can say for most of the other contestants.
Well, whatever you do, good luck and enjoy the race. I'll be back next week with more stakes races to ponder over
Friday, July 17, 2009
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Summit Of Speed and PH Picks for July 11
Another Saturday, another day of big stakes and small wagers. Last week was a good one, let's go for two in a row. Starting with the Public Handicapper races for today.
1 3/8 Mile (Inner Turf) Man O War G1 Race 7 at Belmont Park
Gio Ponti
5-2
4-1
Midships
4-1
6-1
Quijano
9-2
7-1
Dancing Forever
5-1
8-1
Shapes up to be a competitive race in which any of 6 horses has a legit shot. Someone will need a good trip. Homefield advantage goes to Gio Ponti with Ramon Dominquez aboard. GP comes off a G1 win in the Manhattan and is 3 for 4 over the course. He is stretching out an extra furlong for the first time, but I don't think that will be a problem. The hot horse is Midships coming off 3 straight grade wins. Figure pattern suggests Midships may not have enough to win this race. German bred Quijano is 6 for 6 at the distance and a Group 1 winner at Milan. The gelding just missed at the Northern Dancer G1 last year at Woodbine and comes back to the states for another go. Quijano will be my PH pick. Dancing Forever comes back 2nd off layoff from a good Breeder's Cup Turf effort. Last race was clearly a tune up for bigger things, and this may be it. You can also throw Grand Courturier and Marsh Side into the mix as well, but you have to narrow it down somehow, and sometimes hard decisions have to be made.
1 Mile Turf Battlefield Stakes 70k Monmouth PP 4:20
#8 Get Serious
5-2
4-1
#9 Jet Propulsion
4-1
6-1
#6 Independent George
9-2
7-1
#3 Steve's Double
5-1
8-1
Get Serious is our horse for the course with 4 wins in 6 tries including a similar type race 2 back. Get Serious along with Jet Propulsion will both be aiming to set the early fractions and Get Serious has the advantage of being inside JP. Truth is, this race is set up nicely for a closer such as Independent George who will be my PH selection. For Seinfeld fans Independent George is also the hunch play of the day. Steve's Double is coming off a long layoff, but has won richer races than this one and trainer Ronny Werner is 27% with a +ROI with layoffs of greater than 90 days. Elvis Trujillo in the irons doesn't hurt the chances either.
1 1/4 Mile (Turf) Arlington Handicap G3 6:40
#12 Cosmonaut
5-2
4-1
# 13 Thabazimbi
4-1
6-1
#9 Just As Well
9-2
7-1
#11 Stream Cat
5-1
8-1
One of the good things about the Arlington turf course at this distance is there does not appear to be any significant post position bias. This is a good thing as all my contenders for this race will be starting from the outer posts. Cosmonaut finds an easier spot to run than last out when he faced the likes of Gio Ponti and Marsh Side in the Manhattan. Cosmonaut is 2 for 4 on the course and 2 for 6 at the distance and has Robbie Albarado to guide him. #13 Thazimbi has been freshened after giving a good effort last out in the Louisville G3. Should like the distance and Leparoux is one of the best. Just As Well has yet to win this year, but showed some promise of improvement in his last two outings. Stream Cat won this race last year off a layoff and hopes to do the same again this year.
1 1/4 Mile Hollywood Gold Cup G1 7:30
Hol G1 AW
7:30
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#10 Life Is Sweet
5-2
4-1
#4 Bullsbay
4-1
6-1
#5 Parading
9-2
7-1
#12 Informed
5-1
8-1
A very competitive race, but strengthwise I think it is lacking in strength for a G1 affair. I think this is why Shirreffs has chosen this spot to enter his 2nd best filly Life Is Sweet who was 2nd best to Zenyatta last out. Bullsbay will be a force to be reckoned with if he can run back to his recent performances. I could rank Parading higher, but not knowing how he will handle the cushion track caused me to downgrade him just a little. However, Kent Desormeaux knows how to ride and if he has any affinity for the course he'll be there in the mix at the end. Informed will be hampered by starting from the 12th post, but the G2 Californian winner is 3 for 7 on the track and should have a shot. Mast Track and Tres Borrachos are two other to keep in mind for Trifecta purposes.
And now for some Summit of Speed Racing
5f (Turf) Bob Umphrey Turf Spring Championship Handicap
#5 Mr. Nightlinger
5-2
4-1
#8 Possetothemax
9-2
7-1
#3 Midnight Ridge
4-1
6-1
#7 Ron Bob And Dave
5-1
8-1
If this race stays on the Turf, which as of this writing it appears that it will, than forget the odds line as it pertains to Mr. Nightlinger, he is clearly the best in the field. That being said, Possetothemax is 3 for 4 on CRC Turf including an overnight win last out and should be hanging around for at least a minor award. Midnight Ridge gets rider Paco Lopez aboard. He will be contending for the early lead, and Paco will have him hugging the rail all the way if he can. However the turns on the turf course are tight which is probably why runners in these 5f sprints at CRC generally do better starting from the outside. Finally I'll thrown Ron Bob And Dave shipping in from Hollywood to make his stakes debut. He's run some nice figures and could take advantage of an early speed duel. But really, all these other guys are racing for 2nd IMOH
I'm going to skip the 5f J J's Dream for 2yo fillies. It appears to be a major crap shoot in my opinion.
6 f Azalea Stakes G3 for 3yo fillies
#7 Kays and Jays
5-2
4-1
#3 Royal Card
9-2
7-1
#2 Underground
4-1
6-1
#9 First Passage
5-1
8-1
Kays and Jays turnsback after being overmatched in Hollywood and comes back to her preferred distance of 6f. Jose Lezcano gets the call. Royal Card is one of 3 Marty Wolfson entries in this race and has really awakened under Marty's tutelage after he took over from Todd Pletcher 2 races ago. Underground maybe taking a huge step up in only her 2nd race, but the Baffert trainee ran big first out, so why not. Mike Smith is the rider. First Passage is another Wolfson runner. She is a winner of an overnight 100k stakes last out, but the outside post could hinder her here.
6f Carry Back Stakes G2 for 3yo 3:56
#1 You Lucky Mann
5-2
4-1
#5 Not For Silver
9-2
7-1
#2 Ask Joe
4-1
6-1
#4 Prince Joshua
5-1
8-1
You really have to watch the last race between You Lucky Mann and Prince Joshua to believe it. You Lucky Mann caught Prince Joshua on the turn into the stretch. Jockey Jermaine Bridgmohan appeared, to my eyes, to relax on YLM thinking it was over, but it was not as Prince Joshua fought back and JB had to get really busy to pull the race out. Still YLM is the better horse. Not For Silver comes out of a really nice race on Preakness day and may get the gold today. Ask Joe, the Fair Grounds Sugar Bowl winner, ridden by Paco Lopez is one that could benefit from a hot pace scenario. Prince Joshua showed a lot of courage last out and could prevail if he can avoid a bounce out of that race.
6f Princess Rooney Hdcp G1 for fillies and mares 3 up 4:26
#8 Dubai Majesty
5-2
4-1
#6 Game Face
9-2
7-1
#7 Keep The Peace
4-1
6-1
#1 Jessica Is Back
5-1
8-1
Well, I've been known to go off half-cocked before and I am doing so again. I don't think Indian Blessing will be at her best today. I was informed that Baffert excused the last effort due to a leg infection; however the infection didn't seem to effect her the first 5 furlongs of that race. In addition, I still don't like the last workout which was nearly 2 seconds off the previous. It was still good for most, but not a Baffert type work. So, I'm looking to Dubai Majesty who showed some guts in the Winning Colors last out. Jamie (don't blame me) Theriot has won on her before, and if I'm right about IB, he should win on her again. Todd Pletcher's Game Face is a consistent graded stakes runner and figures to do well here. Keep The Peace ran 3rd in DM's last race and would've finished, at least, 2nd had she not been impeded by Lady Chace in the stretch, so you got to give her a chance here. Finally, Wolfson runner Jessica Is Back has some speed, has the rail and Paco Lopez. She, Could, Go, All, The, Way!
6f Smile Sprint Handicap-G2 4:55
#4 Benny The Bull
5-2
4-1
#5 Eaton's Gift
9-2
7-1
#6 Yesbyjimminy
4-1
6-1
#2 How's Your Halo
5-1
8-1
Once again, forget the odds line for Benny. This one is Benny The Bull and the usual suspects. Eaton's Gift comes Turf to Dirt and 2nd off layoff for Dale Romans and Jose Lezcano. Then Yesbyjimminy and How's Your Halo round out the usual suspects. Ikigai, or maybe Icky Guy, does not appear to be the same horse that won the Mr. Prospector back in January at GulfStream.
Well that about covers it for today. You've certainly gotten more than your money's worth and I hope you find something in all of this that can be used to your benefit.
1 3/8 Mile (Inner Turf) Man O War G1 Race 7 at Belmont Park
Gio Ponti
5-2
4-1
Midships
4-1
6-1
Quijano
9-2
7-1
Dancing Forever
5-1
8-1
Shapes up to be a competitive race in which any of 6 horses has a legit shot. Someone will need a good trip. Homefield advantage goes to Gio Ponti with Ramon Dominquez aboard. GP comes off a G1 win in the Manhattan and is 3 for 4 over the course. He is stretching out an extra furlong for the first time, but I don't think that will be a problem. The hot horse is Midships coming off 3 straight grade wins. Figure pattern suggests Midships may not have enough to win this race. German bred Quijano is 6 for 6 at the distance and a Group 1 winner at Milan. The gelding just missed at the Northern Dancer G1 last year at Woodbine and comes back to the states for another go. Quijano will be my PH pick. Dancing Forever comes back 2nd off layoff from a good Breeder's Cup Turf effort. Last race was clearly a tune up for bigger things, and this may be it. You can also throw Grand Courturier and Marsh Side into the mix as well, but you have to narrow it down somehow, and sometimes hard decisions have to be made.
1 Mile Turf Battlefield Stakes 70k Monmouth PP 4:20
#8 Get Serious
5-2
4-1
#9 Jet Propulsion
4-1
6-1
#6 Independent George
9-2
7-1
#3 Steve's Double
5-1
8-1
Get Serious is our horse for the course with 4 wins in 6 tries including a similar type race 2 back. Get Serious along with Jet Propulsion will both be aiming to set the early fractions and Get Serious has the advantage of being inside JP. Truth is, this race is set up nicely for a closer such as Independent George who will be my PH selection. For Seinfeld fans Independent George is also the hunch play of the day. Steve's Double is coming off a long layoff, but has won richer races than this one and trainer Ronny Werner is 27% with a +ROI with layoffs of greater than 90 days. Elvis Trujillo in the irons doesn't hurt the chances either.
1 1/4 Mile (Turf) Arlington Handicap G3 6:40
#12 Cosmonaut
5-2
4-1
# 13 Thabazimbi
4-1
6-1
#9 Just As Well
9-2
7-1
#11 Stream Cat
5-1
8-1
One of the good things about the Arlington turf course at this distance is there does not appear to be any significant post position bias. This is a good thing as all my contenders for this race will be starting from the outer posts. Cosmonaut finds an easier spot to run than last out when he faced the likes of Gio Ponti and Marsh Side in the Manhattan. Cosmonaut is 2 for 4 on the course and 2 for 6 at the distance and has Robbie Albarado to guide him. #13 Thazimbi has been freshened after giving a good effort last out in the Louisville G3. Should like the distance and Leparoux is one of the best. Just As Well has yet to win this year, but showed some promise of improvement in his last two outings. Stream Cat won this race last year off a layoff and hopes to do the same again this year.
1 1/4 Mile Hollywood Gold Cup G1 7:30
Hol G1 AW
7:30
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#10 Life Is Sweet
5-2
4-1
#4 Bullsbay
4-1
6-1
#5 Parading
9-2
7-1
#12 Informed
5-1
8-1
A very competitive race, but strengthwise I think it is lacking in strength for a G1 affair. I think this is why Shirreffs has chosen this spot to enter his 2nd best filly Life Is Sweet who was 2nd best to Zenyatta last out. Bullsbay will be a force to be reckoned with if he can run back to his recent performances. I could rank Parading higher, but not knowing how he will handle the cushion track caused me to downgrade him just a little. However, Kent Desormeaux knows how to ride and if he has any affinity for the course he'll be there in the mix at the end. Informed will be hampered by starting from the 12th post, but the G2 Californian winner is 3 for 7 on the track and should have a shot. Mast Track and Tres Borrachos are two other to keep in mind for Trifecta purposes.
And now for some Summit of Speed Racing
5f (Turf) Bob Umphrey Turf Spring Championship Handicap
#5 Mr. Nightlinger
5-2
4-1
#8 Possetothemax
9-2
7-1
#3 Midnight Ridge
4-1
6-1
#7 Ron Bob And Dave
5-1
8-1
If this race stays on the Turf, which as of this writing it appears that it will, than forget the odds line as it pertains to Mr. Nightlinger, he is clearly the best in the field. That being said, Possetothemax is 3 for 4 on CRC Turf including an overnight win last out and should be hanging around for at least a minor award. Midnight Ridge gets rider Paco Lopez aboard. He will be contending for the early lead, and Paco will have him hugging the rail all the way if he can. However the turns on the turf course are tight which is probably why runners in these 5f sprints at CRC generally do better starting from the outside. Finally I'll thrown Ron Bob And Dave shipping in from Hollywood to make his stakes debut. He's run some nice figures and could take advantage of an early speed duel. But really, all these other guys are racing for 2nd IMOH
I'm going to skip the 5f J J's Dream for 2yo fillies. It appears to be a major crap shoot in my opinion.
6 f Azalea Stakes G3 for 3yo fillies
#7 Kays and Jays
5-2
4-1
#3 Royal Card
9-2
7-1
#2 Underground
4-1
6-1
#9 First Passage
5-1
8-1
Kays and Jays turnsback after being overmatched in Hollywood and comes back to her preferred distance of 6f. Jose Lezcano gets the call. Royal Card is one of 3 Marty Wolfson entries in this race and has really awakened under Marty's tutelage after he took over from Todd Pletcher 2 races ago. Underground maybe taking a huge step up in only her 2nd race, but the Baffert trainee ran big first out, so why not. Mike Smith is the rider. First Passage is another Wolfson runner. She is a winner of an overnight 100k stakes last out, but the outside post could hinder her here.
6f Carry Back Stakes G2 for 3yo 3:56
#1 You Lucky Mann
5-2
4-1
#5 Not For Silver
9-2
7-1
#2 Ask Joe
4-1
6-1
#4 Prince Joshua
5-1
8-1
You really have to watch the last race between You Lucky Mann and Prince Joshua to believe it. You Lucky Mann caught Prince Joshua on the turn into the stretch. Jockey Jermaine Bridgmohan appeared, to my eyes, to relax on YLM thinking it was over, but it was not as Prince Joshua fought back and JB had to get really busy to pull the race out. Still YLM is the better horse. Not For Silver comes out of a really nice race on Preakness day and may get the gold today. Ask Joe, the Fair Grounds Sugar Bowl winner, ridden by Paco Lopez is one that could benefit from a hot pace scenario. Prince Joshua showed a lot of courage last out and could prevail if he can avoid a bounce out of that race.
6f Princess Rooney Hdcp G1 for fillies and mares 3 up 4:26
#8 Dubai Majesty
5-2
4-1
#6 Game Face
9-2
7-1
#7 Keep The Peace
4-1
6-1
#1 Jessica Is Back
5-1
8-1
Well, I've been known to go off half-cocked before and I am doing so again. I don't think Indian Blessing will be at her best today. I was informed that Baffert excused the last effort due to a leg infection; however the infection didn't seem to effect her the first 5 furlongs of that race. In addition, I still don't like the last workout which was nearly 2 seconds off the previous. It was still good for most, but not a Baffert type work. So, I'm looking to Dubai Majesty who showed some guts in the Winning Colors last out. Jamie (don't blame me) Theriot has won on her before, and if I'm right about IB, he should win on her again. Todd Pletcher's Game Face is a consistent graded stakes runner and figures to do well here. Keep The Peace ran 3rd in DM's last race and would've finished, at least, 2nd had she not been impeded by Lady Chace in the stretch, so you got to give her a chance here. Finally, Wolfson runner Jessica Is Back has some speed, has the rail and Paco Lopez. She, Could, Go, All, The, Way!
6f Smile Sprint Handicap-G2 4:55
#4 Benny The Bull
5-2
4-1
#5 Eaton's Gift
9-2
7-1
#6 Yesbyjimminy
4-1
6-1
#2 How's Your Halo
5-1
8-1
Once again, forget the odds line for Benny. This one is Benny The Bull and the usual suspects. Eaton's Gift comes Turf to Dirt and 2nd off layoff for Dale Romans and Jose Lezcano. Then Yesbyjimminy and How's Your Halo round out the usual suspects. Ikigai, or maybe Icky Guy, does not appear to be the same horse that won the Mr. Prospector back in January at GulfStream.
Well that about covers it for today. You've certainly gotten more than your money's worth and I hope you find something in all of this that can be used to your benefit.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Big City Man No More
I went to the Bloodhorse.com to see if I could find an explanation for Indian Blessing's poor performance last out when the coincidence of coincidences occurred. Big City Man winner of this year's Dubai Golden Shaheen, in which Indian Blessing finished 2nd, died July 5th of a strangulated cecum. Apparently he showed signs of distress following his workout, was treated for colic and eventually taken to the clinic where surgery was performed and the ailment discovered. Read the full story here https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/51550/big-city-man-dies-of-strangulated-cecum.
Meanwhile, watching the last race on Indian Blessing, I have to question her soundness. In case your wondering about my sudden interest in Indian Blessing, it is due to the Summit of Speed and the G1 Princess Rooney Handicap which will be run at CRC on Saturday.
When I saw Indian Blessing was entered my first reaction was, "One race down." However, after further perusal of the form I began to wonder. Knowing that G1 type horses often dog it somewhat when coming back after rest, I found the last result of Indian Blessing's to be a puzzle all the same. Maybe she loses in a Grade 2 or even 3 race, but an overnight stakes? The comment reads,"weakened final furlong"
I watched the race and Indian Blessing appeared to be running along fine and seemed sure to catch the front running Coco Belle when she basically just ran out of gas.
Add to this her workouts. Bob Baffert works his horses fast. This is well known. On June 30 Indian Blessing runs a 4f bullet in 0:46 flat. July 6 over the same surface and distance its 48 and fifth. Baffert can't be happy about that. Indian Blessing has been heavily favored in at least her last 10 races. She may be a huge bet against this Saturday if heavily favored again.
Meanwhile, watching the last race on Indian Blessing, I have to question her soundness. In case your wondering about my sudden interest in Indian Blessing, it is due to the Summit of Speed and the G1 Princess Rooney Handicap which will be run at CRC on Saturday.
When I saw Indian Blessing was entered my first reaction was, "One race down." However, after further perusal of the form I began to wonder. Knowing that G1 type horses often dog it somewhat when coming back after rest, I found the last result of Indian Blessing's to be a puzzle all the same. Maybe she loses in a Grade 2 or even 3 race, but an overnight stakes? The comment reads,"weakened final furlong"
I watched the race and Indian Blessing appeared to be running along fine and seemed sure to catch the front running Coco Belle when she basically just ran out of gas.
Add to this her workouts. Bob Baffert works his horses fast. This is well known. On June 30 Indian Blessing runs a 4f bullet in 0:46 flat. July 6 over the same surface and distance its 48 and fifth. Baffert can't be happy about that. Indian Blessing has been heavily favored in at least her last 10 races. She may be a huge bet against this Saturday if heavily favored again.
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Mid-Term Report
Well, really its a 3/4 term report as 3 of the 4 races are in the books for this week. Some comments on the races so far.
United Nations Hdcp.
What the Hell was the jockey colony thinking in allowing Presious Passion an uncontested 20 length lead within the first quarter of the race! Then along the backstretch, nobody was making up any ground on Presious Passion. Maybe they couldn't ,or maybe they weren't trying yet. At any rate, by the time they did start closing the gap, it was obvious they would not catch him.
As you know, I did not have Presious Passion picked to win; however, this particular scenario is not exactly what I had envisioned. I'm not shocked the horse won. There is no denying Presious Passion is one of the leading grass horses running right now. On the bright side, the German-bred Lauro managed to be second best for some Weasel vindication. And I don't mind getting beat by Elvis Trujillo who is an old Calder favorite and deserves to do well.
Firecracker Hdcp.
In this race we got the winner right, Mr. Sydney. No great feat there. The biggest surprise to me is that he paid 2-1 as I thought he might go a little lower. The Weasel play in this race was Tizdejavu at 9-1. Placed 2nd at the 3/4 pole, it looked as if there was a possibility he could move forward and go on to win, but he flattened out and was not a factor coming home.
Suburban Hdcp.
The Weasel managed to get this one right with the top two finishers albeit in the wrong order. That's OK as the Weasel play in this race was Dry Martini at 10-1. I do hope you got that one. The funny thing was that originally I had made Dry Martini the top choice, but, upon further thought put Asiatic Boy on top. That's what you get for thinking too much.
That leaves todays American Oaks from Hollywood. Beyond Gozzip Girl, I don't have a very good feel for this race. Take that under advisement if you use any of my opinions in your own handicapping decisions.
A word about the Handicapping the Handicapper project. I am approaching the idea in two ways at the moment. The ways have been chosen largely based on convenience. I have been following the betting pool selections for Calder Race Course since I play a lot of races there. One thing I've learned is that you play against the favorite in claiming races at your own peril at Calder as the Collective gets these right at about a 50% clip since I've been paying attention. The Collective is 37% accurate on the top choice in Maiden Claiming events. I think most of us would like to boast of those types of percentages. I know I would.
I don't have enough entries in other racing classifications yet for any meaningful numbers, but will update you as they come available. I am playing the Collective odds on the Maiden Claiming races as those are typically the last races I handicap on any card due to time constraints. Yesterday's card had 3 Maiden Claiming races. One race was a pass with no overlays, the 2nd race I played the 4th choice and lost. I should've played the 3rd choice, but the odds changed on me between laying the bet and the start of the race. I wait as long as I can and try to make the bet with 0 MTP as they're loading if I can. I can't help what happens after that. As it turns out, the 3rd choice won paying a nice 8-1 price. Finally got a winner betting a 2-1 favorite, actually needed 5-2, but again.....
That's a constant problem when one's play is dependent on the odds. It seems like a problem that could be solved by the data providers if they chose to do so. Friday, I bet a horse at 7-1, the minimum I required to bet the horse, at 0 MTP. By the time I got back to my seat, a five second walk, the odds had dropped to 5-1. The odds dropped 2 more ticks to 4-1 after the race had started. Is the tote system really that slow or is there some past posting going on here? Either way, it does make life difficult for a handicapper who's decisions are based odds and not selections.
Ok that's it for today. Don't forget to play the HANA race at Hollywood today (Race 8).
United Nations Hdcp.
What the Hell was the jockey colony thinking in allowing Presious Passion an uncontested 20 length lead within the first quarter of the race! Then along the backstretch, nobody was making up any ground on Presious Passion. Maybe they couldn't ,or maybe they weren't trying yet. At any rate, by the time they did start closing the gap, it was obvious they would not catch him.
As you know, I did not have Presious Passion picked to win; however, this particular scenario is not exactly what I had envisioned. I'm not shocked the horse won. There is no denying Presious Passion is one of the leading grass horses running right now. On the bright side, the German-bred Lauro managed to be second best for some Weasel vindication. And I don't mind getting beat by Elvis Trujillo who is an old Calder favorite and deserves to do well.
Firecracker Hdcp.
In this race we got the winner right, Mr. Sydney. No great feat there. The biggest surprise to me is that he paid 2-1 as I thought he might go a little lower. The Weasel play in this race was Tizdejavu at 9-1. Placed 2nd at the 3/4 pole, it looked as if there was a possibility he could move forward and go on to win, but he flattened out and was not a factor coming home.
Suburban Hdcp.
The Weasel managed to get this one right with the top two finishers albeit in the wrong order. That's OK as the Weasel play in this race was Dry Martini at 10-1. I do hope you got that one. The funny thing was that originally I had made Dry Martini the top choice, but, upon further thought put Asiatic Boy on top. That's what you get for thinking too much.
That leaves todays American Oaks from Hollywood. Beyond Gozzip Girl, I don't have a very good feel for this race. Take that under advisement if you use any of my opinions in your own handicapping decisions.
A word about the Handicapping the Handicapper project. I am approaching the idea in two ways at the moment. The ways have been chosen largely based on convenience. I have been following the betting pool selections for Calder Race Course since I play a lot of races there. One thing I've learned is that you play against the favorite in claiming races at your own peril at Calder as the Collective gets these right at about a 50% clip since I've been paying attention. The Collective is 37% accurate on the top choice in Maiden Claiming events. I think most of us would like to boast of those types of percentages. I know I would.
I don't have enough entries in other racing classifications yet for any meaningful numbers, but will update you as they come available. I am playing the Collective odds on the Maiden Claiming races as those are typically the last races I handicap on any card due to time constraints. Yesterday's card had 3 Maiden Claiming races. One race was a pass with no overlays, the 2nd race I played the 4th choice and lost. I should've played the 3rd choice, but the odds changed on me between laying the bet and the start of the race. I wait as long as I can and try to make the bet with 0 MTP as they're loading if I can. I can't help what happens after that. As it turns out, the 3rd choice won paying a nice 8-1 price. Finally got a winner betting a 2-1 favorite, actually needed 5-2, but again.....
That's a constant problem when one's play is dependent on the odds. It seems like a problem that could be solved by the data providers if they chose to do so. Friday, I bet a horse at 7-1, the minimum I required to bet the horse, at 0 MTP. By the time I got back to my seat, a five second walk, the odds had dropped to 5-1. The odds dropped 2 more ticks to 4-1 after the race had started. Is the tote system really that slow or is there some past posting going on here? Either way, it does make life difficult for a handicapper who's decisions are based odds and not selections.
Ok that's it for today. Don't forget to play the HANA race at Hollywood today (Race 8).
Saturday, July 4, 2009
4th of July Star Spangled PH and HANA picks
All right then! Back for another week of making a public fool of myself. Last week wasn't too bad. Can't say I didn't warn you about Mary's Follies in the Boiling Springs at Monmouth. Too bad the price didn't justify the risk there. Had a straight chalky winner in Minnesota when the race was moved off the turf and Si Si Mon Amie scratched making Mizzcan'tbewrong the odds on favorite. Got beat in the other two races by longshots that really just didn't figure. Maneke just got nipped at the wire and the Colonial Downs race was won by horse ridden by Rosemary Homeister, Jr. Rosie used to ride a lot down here at Calder. She is a competent journeyman jockey, but she never gets the really good horses in the big races. However, every once in a while she'll pull one off for you. You just have to wait a long time for those every once in a whiles.
So here are this week's selections and analysis. Good luck
1 3/8 Mile (Turf) G1 United Nations Stakes Monmouth
MTH R10 G1
5:20
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Strike A Deal
5-2
4-1
#5 Court Vision
4-1
6-1
#6 Lauro
9-2
7-1
#1 Banrock
5-1
8-1
It almost looks like a rematch of the Monmouth race 3 weeks ago with many of the same players. The difference maker is going to be the distance. Presious Passion barely held off Banrock to win. I don't think Elvis will be able to stretch that horse out another 2 furlongs against this crowd, but I've been wrong before. #2 Strike A Deal has been the distance before and sits near the pace which should help keep him out of trouble and ready to move when the time comes. #5 Court Vision has never gone the distance but is too classy a horse to pass on if the price is right. #6 Lauro could be this week's Mary's Follies. 15-1 in the ML I've been reading a lot recently about the quality and stamina of German breds. Lauro has 2 wins and 3 places in 5 tries at this distance #1 Banrock is also a winner at the distance. Just missed last out and I think the extra distance will help. Only issue is that Joe Bravo is no Kent Desormeaux.
1 Mile (Turf) Firecracker Hdcp. G2 Churchill Downs
CD R10 G2
5:29
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#5 Mr. Sidney
5-2
4-1
#7 Tizdejavu
4-1
6-1
#4 Thorn Song
9-2
7-1
#2 Seaspeak
5-1
8-1
#5 Mr. Sidney is back home on the KY bluegrass coming off a poor effort in the G1 Met HDCP at Belmont. Look for a rebound back on the grass with KD in the irons. Mr. Sidney is 3 for 3 at the distance on grass and a G1 winner. #7 Tizdejavu is the 3 for 3 horse for course and has 4 wins and 1 show in 5 races on the grass. A G2 winner as a 3yo is making only his 2nd start this year.#4 Thornsong will be the horse to catch, but the 9-5 ML fave will have to fend off many contenders for that early lead. So the question becomes how much will he have left for the late runners. Probably not enough is my guess. #2 Seaspeak is a 2 time G3 winner looking to make that next step forward. Broke his maiden at CD and Albarado dominates at CD so certainly worth a look at the ML of 8-1
1 1/4 Mile Suburban Hdcp. G2 Belmont
Bel R10 G2
5:49
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Asiatic Boy
5-2
4-1
#3 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#2 Dry Martini
9-2
7-1
#8 Cool Coal Man
5-1
8-1
Cool Coal Man and the hardest working stakes horse in racing, Finallymadeit, guarantee an honest pace in this race which should perfectly suit the likes of Asiatic Boy who is coming out of a 2nd place finish in the S. Foster Hdcp. After missing that one by a gaining length, a 2nd go in the States with lasix and Alan Garcia, coupled with a favorable pace scenario should make this a victory ride for the Sheik. #3 It's A Bird is in great condition and will be hanging just off the pace setters. Look for him to get the lead at some point in the stretch and then try to hold off the closing Asiatic Boy and the next contender #2 Dry Martini. Dry Martini is a solid G3 runner who will also benefit from honest fractions. He may not be good enough for these, but with a little luck, you never know. #8 Cool Coal Man will need to shake loose of Finallymadeit and slow down the race to have any real chance. I don't think it will happen, but would play it for a big price.
1 1/4 Mile American Oaks G1 Hollywood
Hol R8 G1
Sunday
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#1 Gozzip Girl
5-2
4-1
#11 The Best Day Ever
4-1
6-1
#14 Mrs Kipling
9-2
7-1
#7 Acting Lady
5-1
8-1
14 horses in and 2 more waiting to go, but I could never get pass Gozzip Girl in my figuring. She just looks to good. #11 The Best Day Ever is an improving 3yo filly and could give her a run #14 Mrs Kipling certainly looks good enough to win here, but I don't know about the post position #7 Acting Lady has won a big race here before and has beaten the 3rd choice and must be considered. Other considerations are Well Monied and Magical Affair, but you can't bet 'em all. Or can you?
One last thing. Remember that today is the day we celebrate our Independence from an over bearing and controlling government, not our dependence on an ever growing and liberty infringing cradle to grave (and the faster the better, it seems) nanny state.
So here are this week's selections and analysis. Good luck
1 3/8 Mile (Turf) G1 United Nations Stakes Monmouth
MTH R10 G1
5:20
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Strike A Deal
5-2
4-1
#5 Court Vision
4-1
6-1
#6 Lauro
9-2
7-1
#1 Banrock
5-1
8-1
It almost looks like a rematch of the Monmouth race 3 weeks ago with many of the same players. The difference maker is going to be the distance. Presious Passion barely held off Banrock to win. I don't think Elvis will be able to stretch that horse out another 2 furlongs against this crowd, but I've been wrong before. #2 Strike A Deal has been the distance before and sits near the pace which should help keep him out of trouble and ready to move when the time comes. #5 Court Vision has never gone the distance but is too classy a horse to pass on if the price is right. #6 Lauro could be this week's Mary's Follies. 15-1 in the ML I've been reading a lot recently about the quality and stamina of German breds. Lauro has 2 wins and 3 places in 5 tries at this distance #1 Banrock is also a winner at the distance. Just missed last out and I think the extra distance will help. Only issue is that Joe Bravo is no Kent Desormeaux.
1 Mile (Turf) Firecracker Hdcp. G2 Churchill Downs
CD R10 G2
5:29
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#5 Mr. Sidney
5-2
4-1
#7 Tizdejavu
4-1
6-1
#4 Thorn Song
9-2
7-1
#2 Seaspeak
5-1
8-1
#5 Mr. Sidney is back home on the KY bluegrass coming off a poor effort in the G1 Met HDCP at Belmont. Look for a rebound back on the grass with KD in the irons. Mr. Sidney is 3 for 3 at the distance on grass and a G1 winner. #7 Tizdejavu is the 3 for 3 horse for course and has 4 wins and 1 show in 5 races on the grass. A G2 winner as a 3yo is making only his 2nd start this year.#4 Thornsong will be the horse to catch, but the 9-5 ML fave will have to fend off many contenders for that early lead. So the question becomes how much will he have left for the late runners. Probably not enough is my guess. #2 Seaspeak is a 2 time G3 winner looking to make that next step forward. Broke his maiden at CD and Albarado dominates at CD so certainly worth a look at the ML of 8-1
1 1/4 Mile Suburban Hdcp. G2 Belmont
Bel R10 G2
5:49
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Asiatic Boy
5-2
4-1
#3 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#2 Dry Martini
9-2
7-1
#8 Cool Coal Man
5-1
8-1
Cool Coal Man and the hardest working stakes horse in racing, Finallymadeit, guarantee an honest pace in this race which should perfectly suit the likes of Asiatic Boy who is coming out of a 2nd place finish in the S. Foster Hdcp. After missing that one by a gaining length, a 2nd go in the States with lasix and Alan Garcia, coupled with a favorable pace scenario should make this a victory ride for the Sheik. #3 It's A Bird is in great condition and will be hanging just off the pace setters. Look for him to get the lead at some point in the stretch and then try to hold off the closing Asiatic Boy and the next contender #2 Dry Martini. Dry Martini is a solid G3 runner who will also benefit from honest fractions. He may not be good enough for these, but with a little luck, you never know. #8 Cool Coal Man will need to shake loose of Finallymadeit and slow down the race to have any real chance. I don't think it will happen, but would play it for a big price.
1 1/4 Mile American Oaks G1 Hollywood
Hol R8 G1
Sunday
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#1 Gozzip Girl
5-2
4-1
#11 The Best Day Ever
4-1
6-1
#14 Mrs Kipling
9-2
7-1
#7 Acting Lady
5-1
8-1
14 horses in and 2 more waiting to go, but I could never get pass Gozzip Girl in my figuring. She just looks to good. #11 The Best Day Ever is an improving 3yo filly and could give her a run #14 Mrs Kipling certainly looks good enough to win here, but I don't know about the post position #7 Acting Lady has won a big race here before and has beaten the 3rd choice and must be considered. Other considerations are Well Monied and Magical Affair, but you can't bet 'em all. Or can you?
One last thing. Remember that today is the day we celebrate our Independence from an over bearing and controlling government, not our dependence on an ever growing and liberty infringing cradle to grave (and the faster the better, it seems) nanny state.
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