Wet weather will be the order of the day for Saratoga Springs. After last weeks poor showing by yours truly, that's all I need is for the rain to wreak havoc on my selections this week.
If the rain falls as forecast, it's a pretty safe bet the Ballston Spa will come off the turf. I can't forecast who will stay in the race if it is moved to the main track.
On the grass, I was alredy going to go somewhat against the conventional wisdom using #7 Cocoa Beach under the guidance of Ramon Dominquez for bin Suroor Saeed and Godophin Stable. Cocoa Beach has shown ability on both grass and dirt. In fact, if this race is moved off the grass to the main track, Cocoa Beach, being 2 for 3 on off tracks in a field that shows no other significant main track form becomes your Pick 4 single.
The 2nd choice for the Ballston Spa on grass is the 1 horse Rutherienne ridden by Alan Garcia and trained by Christophe Clement. Rutherienne had a lot of traffic problems in her last race the G1 Diana Stakes. In 20 races, Rutherienne has finished in the money 18 times including 14 of her last fifteen all graded stakes. With that stat in mind, one has to think she'll be sniffing around the money once more. If the race goes to the main course, I dunno.
No 2 My Princess Jess, Cornelio Velasquez - Barclay Tagg, gets the nod as 3rd choice. The Princess finished 5th in the Diana should see improvement here coming 2nd off the layoff. She has won Graded at the Spa before, and she has won on soft turf before. If on the grass, the going should be to her liking.
Finally, the #3 Closeout , Albarado-Proctor, should also get some consideration here. Grade 3 winner last out she comes off a bit off a freshening but has been training well on the Turf here. The Albarado-Proctor connection is 40% in the winner's circle over the last 5 years (Thanks DRF Formulator); however, you'll have to balance that with the fact that Thomas Proctor has yet to win in 5 starts at the Spa this season.
The Ballston Spa Hdcp--G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.
On Turf
#7 Cocoa Beach
#1 Rutherienne
#2 My Princess Jess
#3 Closeout
Dirt
#7 Cocoa Beach
?????????????
The 7 furlong Ballerina Stakes shapes up to be a 2 horse race between the #2 Informed Decision and #4 Indian Blessing. The knock on Informed Decision all week has been that her performance on dirt is not quite up to her artificial surface standards. It is true that her dirt Beyer's figures are 6-10 points lower than her artificial figures, yet all she has done is win her last 5 times out including 2 Grade 1 wins a Grade 2 and a Grade 3 win.
Indian Blessing comes off a bit of a layoff having had an infection problem that kept her out of the G2 Princess Rooney here at Calder. Side note, I told you before that race she was not herself and, as it turned out, she didn't even make the trip. However, she's supposed to be all better now. It is reported by DRF that Tonya Terranova, who trains horses for Baffert when they run at Saratoga, says that Indian Blessing is all revved up and ready to go.
This just in. Races 1, 5 and 13 have been taken off the turf. Posted by Steven Crist at DRF.com
I'm going to have to give Indian Blessing the edge here as she if 2 for 2 at Saratoga. If Indian Blessing can run back to her usual self and the tendency of Informed Decision to drop off just a bit on dirt holds up, she is the one to beat.
The Ballerina, Grade 1 7f for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
Top choices
4 Indian Blessing
2 Informed Decision
1 Music Note
The rains have really muddied the Kings Bishop. Here's the way I see it.
Big Drama starts from the outside post-advantage. Big Drama turns back to his best distance after leading 8 furlongs of a 9 furlong West Va. Derby-advantage. Big Drama shows a definite pattern of winning on the turnback after running a route-advantage. Big Drama has never raced on an off-track-disadvantage.
Capt. Candyman Can is 3 for 3 at this distance-advantage. Capt. Candyman Can comes out of chasing the record breaking Quality Road managing to finish 2nd with his own personal best Beyer's figure-advantage. Capt. Candyman Can has won on an off track-advantage.
Munnings outran Rachel Alexandra for 6f in the Haskell-advantage. Munnings has finished ITM 2 times in 2 tries on off track-advantage. Munnings has run nothing but triple digit Beyer's as a 3 yo-advantage.
The above horses are the big 3 for this race. I am going to take a leap of faith and say that Big Drama can handle the off going. I think of these 3 he is likely to give the best price.
Kings Bishop, G1 7f for 3 year olds
8 Big Drama
3 Capt. Candyman Can
2 Munnings
And now for the main event the 1 1/4 mile Travers Stakes.
The only knock on the 4 Quality Road is the question of whether or not he can get the distance with only one prep off the layoff. Now you can add will he handle the off track to that list of doubts. I liked Quality Road going into the Derby. I saw his races at Gulfstream and he is an impressive specimen. I wasn't worried about the distance, and his Tomlinson number suggests he should handle the surface although you never know for sure until they actually do.
The 7 Kensei, stable mate to Rachel Alexander, is the horse Steve Asmussen refers to as Rodney Dangerfield. Asmussen has been steadily stretching him out in successive races and expects the added distance will not be a problem. Kensei is a hot horse right now and the Prado-Asmussen combination has been effective winning at a 36% clip for 28 races over 2008 and 2009 with a positive ROI.
6 Summer Bird is a proven commodity on off going with his strong Derby showing and 2nd place finish in the Haskell. In addition, he has proven that the distance will not be and issue. With plenty of speed on the front end to run at, I expect the son of Birdstone will be flying home at the end.
The Travers G1 for 3 year olds shapes up like this for me
6 Summer Bird
7 Kensei
4 Quality Road
That covers 3 of the 4 Public Handicapper races. I doubt I'll get around to the Del Mar Mile today. Here's hoping I did a better job than last week.
Good luck.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Saratoga Dreamin'
Hi folks. How ya doin'! I just flew in from Saratoga, and, boy are my arms tired. RIMSHOT!
But seriously. Got in at 1:00 am on Tuesday morning having to be at the day job that very day. Still, it was a great time even if the wagering did not go so well for yours truly. I failed to adjust to the closer bias on Friday. Saturday it was bombs away day with longshots hitting the board all over the place. Normally, not a problem. As you've probably observed if you've been following my exploits, the Weasel doesn't mind taking a price now and then. I just couldn't find the right price on Saturday.
Last weekend was my first visit to the Mecca of racing, Saratoga. Now that I've made the pilgrimage, all I can say is wow! The first thing that impressed me about the facility is the sheer size of the place. Television does not really give one a good perspective on how big the place actually is. The Weasel was also impressed by the number of betting windows that were open and how easy it was to hang out by a window to the last conceivable moment before placing a wager. Cheese and rice! At Gulfstream you have to get in line at 5 MTP and hope some old geezer isn't trying to play every trifecta combination 1 at a time to an equally geriatric teller that can't hear his own thoughts.
Today is move in day at the U. Which is also known as the University of Miami. So I will not be playing the game in all likelihood which is just as well since I was really underwhelmed with most of the Public Handicapper races for today. However, not to let my loyal public down. I came up with some selections for your perusal
The first race is the 6f Tax Free Shopping Distaff Stakes for Fillies and Mares 3 and up. Honestly, the line up for this race looks more like an Optional Claimer than a stakes race with several easy tosses such as #2 So So Devine, a 5 year old that has never run to par, #6 Espindola, a recent winner of a $5000 claiming race for non winners of 4, #8 Dell Reef, a 7 year old runner that has never even run close to par, and #11 Graceful Ginger who was claimed for 30k back in may only to be put on the shelf for 3 months.
The one horse that does stand out on the positive side is #10 Sunday In Malibu who actually seems to be getting some class relief coming into this weak field. Look for Jeremy Rose and Michael Trombetta to find the winner's circle here.
Another possible contender is the lucky #13 Miss Pauline ridden by Clinton Potts for Flint Stiles. Miss Pauline shows an interesting every other good race/bad race pattern last 4 out and is due for a good race.
The final contender for this race is the speed on the rail #1 Christina's World, a lightly raced 3 year old ridden by Gabriel Saez for Larry Jones who team up again less than an hour later at Monmouth if the forms are to be believed. There are other front running types in this race so the pace may be too much for her; however, the track has been favorable to speed and the rail so she may be worth a shot at a price.
Moving up, or is it down, the coast to Monmouth for the G3 Philip H. Iseling Stakes for 3 and up my top selection is #1 Researcher Carmouche for Bunco. Twice Researcher has run his best races 3rd off the layoff and, guess what, its 3 off time again for the 5 year old gelding. Researcher beat Ea and Dry Martini in April and looks to be the one to beat here to the Weasel.
#5 Coal Play ridden by Bravo for Zito is 2-1 ML favorite and my 2nd choice. Coal Play sports an E8 Quirin fig (meaning he's a confirmed front runner). However, every other horse in the race is an early/presser type and I don't think they'll let him run away and hide today. Coal Play has run two consecutive big Brisnet figures and shows a pattern of regressing after such a set up.
#3 Solar Flare ridden by the busy Gabriel Saez for Larry Jones is the 3rd choice. Solar Flare finished 6 lengths behind Coal Play last out but has run fast enough in the past to win here if Coal Play regresses and Researcher doesn't fire.
At Saratoga its the G1 Alabama Stakes for 3yo Fillies.
Yesterday the track was sloppy and thunderstorms are in the forecast for today. I'm guessing the going will be sloppy again today which will suit #3 Funny Moon just fine. Funny Moon, ridden by Alan Garcia for Christophe Clement, is 3 for 3 on an off track and the winner of the 1 1/4 mile Coaching Club American Oaks last out.
#5 Careless Jewel ships up from Delaware after winning the G2 Delaware Oaks and sports the highest speed figure of the bunch. If that figure is real than she will be the one to catch.
#6 Be Fair has already won the G3 Lake George this meet and did it over a sloppy Saratoga track, so she should also be considered if the rains come.
#8 Milwaukee Appeal has won some big money races, but most of them have been restricted to Canadian breds. We'll get a chance here to see just how good she is.
Finally we come to the G1 Del Mar Oaks for 3 yo fillies.
This race run on the all weather surface is being invaded, for the most part by Turf specialists.
#5 Well Monied (Rosario-Zucker) will be the one to beat and has the virtue of at least working out on the Del Mar main track.
#6 Strawberry Tart (M. Garcia-Bonde) has also been working on the main track and shows ascending speed figures, always a good sign for a 3 year old.
#9 Lexienos lures Alex Solis off last out winner Starlarks, so that ought to tell you something. Off course, Alex has been riding Lexienos too, so he knows both horses and chooses this one.
That's all for today. Its off to the U to bid my son adieu.
Good Luck
But seriously. Got in at 1:00 am on Tuesday morning having to be at the day job that very day. Still, it was a great time even if the wagering did not go so well for yours truly. I failed to adjust to the closer bias on Friday. Saturday it was bombs away day with longshots hitting the board all over the place. Normally, not a problem. As you've probably observed if you've been following my exploits, the Weasel doesn't mind taking a price now and then. I just couldn't find the right price on Saturday.
Last weekend was my first visit to the Mecca of racing, Saratoga. Now that I've made the pilgrimage, all I can say is wow! The first thing that impressed me about the facility is the sheer size of the place. Television does not really give one a good perspective on how big the place actually is. The Weasel was also impressed by the number of betting windows that were open and how easy it was to hang out by a window to the last conceivable moment before placing a wager. Cheese and rice! At Gulfstream you have to get in line at 5 MTP and hope some old geezer isn't trying to play every trifecta combination 1 at a time to an equally geriatric teller that can't hear his own thoughts.
Today is move in day at the U. Which is also known as the University of Miami. So I will not be playing the game in all likelihood which is just as well since I was really underwhelmed with most of the Public Handicapper races for today. However, not to let my loyal public down. I came up with some selections for your perusal
The first race is the 6f Tax Free Shopping Distaff Stakes for Fillies and Mares 3 and up. Honestly, the line up for this race looks more like an Optional Claimer than a stakes race with several easy tosses such as #2 So So Devine, a 5 year old that has never run to par, #6 Espindola, a recent winner of a $5000 claiming race for non winners of 4, #8 Dell Reef, a 7 year old runner that has never even run close to par, and #11 Graceful Ginger who was claimed for 30k back in may only to be put on the shelf for 3 months.
The one horse that does stand out on the positive side is #10 Sunday In Malibu who actually seems to be getting some class relief coming into this weak field. Look for Jeremy Rose and Michael Trombetta to find the winner's circle here.
Another possible contender is the lucky #13 Miss Pauline ridden by Clinton Potts for Flint Stiles. Miss Pauline shows an interesting every other good race/bad race pattern last 4 out and is due for a good race.
The final contender for this race is the speed on the rail #1 Christina's World, a lightly raced 3 year old ridden by Gabriel Saez for Larry Jones who team up again less than an hour later at Monmouth if the forms are to be believed. There are other front running types in this race so the pace may be too much for her; however, the track has been favorable to speed and the rail so she may be worth a shot at a price.
Moving up, or is it down, the coast to Monmouth for the G3 Philip H. Iseling Stakes for 3 and up my top selection is #1 Researcher Carmouche for Bunco. Twice Researcher has run his best races 3rd off the layoff and, guess what, its 3 off time again for the 5 year old gelding. Researcher beat Ea and Dry Martini in April and looks to be the one to beat here to the Weasel.
#5 Coal Play ridden by Bravo for Zito is 2-1 ML favorite and my 2nd choice. Coal Play sports an E8 Quirin fig (meaning he's a confirmed front runner). However, every other horse in the race is an early/presser type and I don't think they'll let him run away and hide today. Coal Play has run two consecutive big Brisnet figures and shows a pattern of regressing after such a set up.
#3 Solar Flare ridden by the busy Gabriel Saez for Larry Jones is the 3rd choice. Solar Flare finished 6 lengths behind Coal Play last out but has run fast enough in the past to win here if Coal Play regresses and Researcher doesn't fire.
At Saratoga its the G1 Alabama Stakes for 3yo Fillies.
Yesterday the track was sloppy and thunderstorms are in the forecast for today. I'm guessing the going will be sloppy again today which will suit #3 Funny Moon just fine. Funny Moon, ridden by Alan Garcia for Christophe Clement, is 3 for 3 on an off track and the winner of the 1 1/4 mile Coaching Club American Oaks last out.
#5 Careless Jewel ships up from Delaware after winning the G2 Delaware Oaks and sports the highest speed figure of the bunch. If that figure is real than she will be the one to catch.
#6 Be Fair has already won the G3 Lake George this meet and did it over a sloppy Saratoga track, so she should also be considered if the rains come.
#8 Milwaukee Appeal has won some big money races, but most of them have been restricted to Canadian breds. We'll get a chance here to see just how good she is.
Finally we come to the G1 Del Mar Oaks for 3 yo fillies.
This race run on the all weather surface is being invaded, for the most part by Turf specialists.
#5 Well Monied (Rosario-Zucker) will be the one to beat and has the virtue of at least working out on the Del Mar main track.
#6 Strawberry Tart (M. Garcia-Bonde) has also been working on the main track and shows ascending speed figures, always a good sign for a 3 year old.
#9 Lexienos lures Alex Solis off last out winner Starlarks, so that ought to tell you something. Off course, Alex has been riding Lexienos too, so he knows both horses and chooses this one.
That's all for today. Its off to the U to bid my son adieu.
Good Luck
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Leavin' On A Jet Plane
This will be my first physical trip to the Saratoga Race Course. Up until now I've only been there in my dreams. I already have Friday's card handicapped and am chomping at the bit for the Saturday past performances to become available. I hope they come out tomorrow so that my lap top can be left behind. My motel will not have wifi available. When the desk clerk was asked if they had wifi available in the room the response,"No, were in the mountains." When questioned about what being in the mountains had to do with internet access, I was informed that the library in town was open until 7:00.
So while I anxiously await Saturday's PP's I thought I might give a little update on the Handicapping the Handicapper project. Since the onset of this project, I have handicapped 161 races of various types. The table below shows the performance of my top 4 contenders.
The table shows that my top contender won nearly 30% of the races I handicapped. The 2nd almost 17%, 3rd 18% and 4th 14.5%. The reason each contender does not equal 161 is because there are occasionally races where I could not come up with 4, 3, or even 2 contenders I could make a legitimate case for (these races do not include any in which Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta participated).
So while I anxiously await Saturday's PP's I thought I might give a little update on the Handicapping the Handicapper project. Since the onset of this project, I have handicapped 161 races of various types. The table below shows the performance of my top 4 contenders.
The table shows that my top contender won nearly 30% of the races I handicapped. The 2nd almost 17%, 3rd 18% and 4th 14.5%. The reason each contender does not equal 161 is because there are occasionally races where I could not come up with 4, 3, or even 2 contenders I could make a legitimate case for (these races do not include any in which Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta participated). These percentages, or probabilities of the contenders winning translates to the odds shown in the next to last column on the right. These odds indicate what my win expectancy for each contender level. The final column is my win expectancy + 50%. The extra 50% allows for an extra margin of error. Thus, the minimum odds I am able to take at this time is 7/2 and I require 9/1 for my Number 4 contender. It is easy to see that I have not been playing too many favorites to win.
In the original article, I suggested that by dividing races in categories such as Maiden Claiming, Maiden races, claiming and so on, one might be able to better refine the personal odds requirement for each type. In addition, I suggested the use of a moving average of 30 races for each type of race. Please check the archives for the original post, "Handicapping the Handicapper" for the details.
To build a quickie database to test while I was accumulating my personal data, I kept a record from races run at Calder Race Course. I discovered that 30 races were an insufficient base to work from as the odds didn't make sense in some cases. I expanded the number to 50 races, and found that at 50, the results made more sense in that the top choice of the collective betting public performed better than the 2nd, than the 3rd, than the 4th.
To date, I have not handicapped any single class of races 50 times yet. The largest category is graded stakes races with 26. This is because I have been trying to concentrate on better quality races over the Summer. In addition, I have been trying to become a little less parochial in my handicapping habits, so lack of personal time requires me to be more selective about which races I choose to handicap and play.
So for now I will continue to use the generalized table above although I think it is time to start a new one. As the number of races increases, the table becomes less responsive to my current handicapping prowess.
The 161 races yielded a total of 66 win or exacta wagers made. 42 win wagers and 70 exacta wagers on a total of 38 races. So using this method of creating a contender odds line has certainly had the desired effect of cutting the number of races played.
Of the 42 win wagers made a paltry 6 were winners for a 14.3% win rate. At an average 6.88-1 odds for winning wagers this resulted in $0.13 profit for each dollar wagered. Note this is not a $2.00 flat bet result as my wager size may vary depending on whether or not I'm including an exacta wager on the race. Also there are couple of winning wagers where the winner was obviously superior to the field and the odds sufficiently tasty that I couldn't resist and abandoned my system and played the low odds overlay (yes, there can be low odds overlays). Removing these from the database would have the effect of lowering the win rate, but the average winning odds would increase.
Surprisingly, the real money has been made playing the exactas. Of the 70 exacta wagers (2 to 6 individual exacta wagers per race) made 5 resulted in cashing a ticket for a 7.1% success rate. However, at an average return of 39.4-1 this results in a return of $2.01 for each dollar wagered. No confessions are required for this figure as all exacta wagers conform to the template of playing my overlay horse underneath the other contenders in the race. Seemingly, a very effective way of playing the races if one is able to contend with the inevitable losing streaks that are going occur in between the winners. For me the bottom line is am I showing a profit. The results here indicate that this method of setting acceptable odds is working.
A word about the exacta. I have found through experience that if my overlay horse is at odds of 5-1 or less, the payoff on the exacta is not usually worth the risk, especially if the other contenders are at lower odds. In this case, I just increase the win bet and leave out the exacta. Also, placing an exacta bet on such horses effectively lowers the odds on the overlay horse in such a way that should the horse win the extra money required for the exacta has destroyed the overlay price.
At this point, I am confident that once I am able to use odds for specific types of races, the method will really fine tune the odds I am able to accept on a race. For instance, after 26 Graded Stakes races, the required odds for the top choice is 5-1 based on a top contender success rate of 23%, but overnight stakes would require only 3-2 based on a 50% top rate after 20 races. In my opinion, this is where the real value of this exercise lays.
In conclusion, the purpose of Handicapping the Handicapper is to find an objective method of establishing an odds line for top contenders in the race. While there is still more work to be done before declaring the method successful, the interim results reported here show great promise.
A final note. It seems unlikely that I will be able to provide Public Handicapper selections for this weekend, so you're on your own.
Til Next time. Good Luck!
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Bullseye for Bullsbay and The Weasel
Yesterday was a big day for The Chalk Eating Weasel Report. Here's a recap of how the day's action went down.
In the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes, the 3rd ranked contender Take The Points finally fulfilled his potential and out dueled Black Bear Island down the stretch. Financially, the race was a pass as no horse's odds ventured into the playable arena. However, there is nothing the Weasel likes more, other than cashing a ticket, than watching two of his contenders battle it out down the stretch.
In the Grade 1 Beverly D Stakes, you can't say that the Weasel did not alert you to the possibility of Dynaforce. At 7-1, Dynaforce to win was the correct play in the race. I say the "correct" play because I actually took the 8-1 Alnadana to win. Luckily, on any horse at > 5-1, I also play the win selection underneath the other win contenders yielding a nifty exacta worth $160.40 on $2.00 played. At the very least, 7-1 is nothing to sneeze at. I hope some of my readers took advantage of the value that was offered in this race.
The next race, The Arlington Million, went pretty much according to the way most people thought it would. Presious Passion went to the lead and the rest of the field was left to play catch up. To no one's great surprise, Gio Ponti proved to be the best horse in the race. If you followed my advice, this race was a pass. I was afraid Presious Passion might build up an insurmountable lead as he did in the United Nations at Monmouth, but that turned out not to be the case. Perhaps the soft ground took its toll on the front-running gelding as he began to wilt on the turn and had nothing left for the stretch run.
Finally, the day's coup de grace. Bullsbay at 18-1 was the upset winner of the Whitney. To say I was high on Bullsbay's chances would not be truthful. Still I liked his chances better than Commentator who I thought was overrated. I liked his chances better than Tizway's who figured to get used up early chasing Commentator. And I felt his last race on the plastic surface was an anomaly. Bullsbay, does show 2 wins and 4 more in the money finishes on "all weather" surfaces, but each surface is different. I don't know if he has ever shown any ability on Hollywood's surface or not. Of all the horses running, Bullsbay seemed most likely to improve off of his last effort which made him a tepid contender needing at least 9-1 and fully worthy of a wager at 18-1. I do hope you joined the Weasel in cashing that ticket.
Next week I will be at the historic Saratoga Race Track on Friday and Saturday. I will try to post Public Handicapper races for next Saturday, but I don't know at this time about the availability of a wireless connection or time to actually make the post. However, if anyone within reading distance of this would like to meet at some time during those two days, I'd love to meet you. Also if anyone ever benefits by anything I write here, I'd like to here about that as well. C'mon stroke my 'er...ego and show the Weasel some love. Who's a good Weasel? You're a good Weasel! ;=)
Until the next post. Good Luck
In the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes, the 3rd ranked contender Take The Points finally fulfilled his potential and out dueled Black Bear Island down the stretch. Financially, the race was a pass as no horse's odds ventured into the playable arena. However, there is nothing the Weasel likes more, other than cashing a ticket, than watching two of his contenders battle it out down the stretch.
In the Grade 1 Beverly D Stakes, you can't say that the Weasel did not alert you to the possibility of Dynaforce. At 7-1, Dynaforce to win was the correct play in the race. I say the "correct" play because I actually took the 8-1 Alnadana to win. Luckily, on any horse at > 5-1, I also play the win selection underneath the other win contenders yielding a nifty exacta worth $160.40 on $2.00 played. At the very least, 7-1 is nothing to sneeze at. I hope some of my readers took advantage of the value that was offered in this race.
The next race, The Arlington Million, went pretty much according to the way most people thought it would. Presious Passion went to the lead and the rest of the field was left to play catch up. To no one's great surprise, Gio Ponti proved to be the best horse in the race. If you followed my advice, this race was a pass. I was afraid Presious Passion might build up an insurmountable lead as he did in the United Nations at Monmouth, but that turned out not to be the case. Perhaps the soft ground took its toll on the front-running gelding as he began to wilt on the turn and had nothing left for the stretch run.
Finally, the day's coup de grace. Bullsbay at 18-1 was the upset winner of the Whitney. To say I was high on Bullsbay's chances would not be truthful. Still I liked his chances better than Commentator who I thought was overrated. I liked his chances better than Tizway's who figured to get used up early chasing Commentator. And I felt his last race on the plastic surface was an anomaly. Bullsbay, does show 2 wins and 4 more in the money finishes on "all weather" surfaces, but each surface is different. I don't know if he has ever shown any ability on Hollywood's surface or not. Of all the horses running, Bullsbay seemed most likely to improve off of his last effort which made him a tepid contender needing at least 9-1 and fully worthy of a wager at 18-1. I do hope you joined the Weasel in cashing that ticket.
Next week I will be at the historic Saratoga Race Track on Friday and Saturday. I will try to post Public Handicapper races for next Saturday, but I don't know at this time about the availability of a wireless connection or time to actually make the post. However, if anyone within reading distance of this would like to meet at some time during those two days, I'd love to meet you. Also if anyone ever benefits by anything I write here, I'd like to here about that as well. C'mon stroke my 'er...ego and show the Weasel some love. Who's a good Weasel? You're a good Weasel! ;=)
Until the next post. Good Luck
Saturday, August 8, 2009
Arlington Million
Today is Arlington Million day. We have a highly competitive group for the Arlington Million as well as the other 3 Public Handicapper races today. Arlington Park was off the turf on Friday and the going today will likely be something less than firm.
The first race to cover is the mile and a quarter G1 Secretariat Stakes for 3 year olds. The 1A entry, Driving Snow is an early scratch from the race making the job a little easier.
The 1 Cliffy's Future has never run on Turf before and without much turf pedigree to speak of, The Cliff's Edge (Gulch), appears to be misplaced here. The other easy elimination is Hoosier Kingdom who has been tearing up the Indiana State Breds but will find the opposition here a little more accomplished.
The remaining contenders seem very evenly matched, and you can make a case for each of them. However, they can't all win so we have to take a stand somewhere and this is how I see it.
The top selection is the 8 horse Reb at 5 to 1 in the morning line that price seems pretty fair if it holds up. Winner of 3 straight including the Grade 2 American Derby last out. Julien Leparoux gets the call on this son of Stormy Atlantic, and we'll be looking for him to make a late run.
The second choice ships over off a lackluster Group 1 effort at Longchamp at a Mile and a half. The shorter distance should be to the liking of the number 9 Black Bear Island winner of a Group 2 contest back in may. Additionally, Black Bear Island should feel right at home on a soggy turf course.
The third choice is a horse I liked quite a bit earlier in the year, the 7 horse Take The Points. Although yet to show a win on the turf, the surface switch seems to have been a wake up call for the Pletcher trainee. The comment line says Take The Points hung in finishing 3rd to Battle of Hastings in the Virginia Derby. I think the rider change to Kent Desormeaux may be the difference which finally puts this underachiever over the top.
The fourth choice is the 10 horse Giant Oak. Giant Oak is the horse for course here with 2 wins in 3 tries at Arlington Park. Giant Oak had a troubled trip as the favorite last out and figures to improve position in this race with a better trip.
I think you can also make some sort of case for Proceed Bee, Laureate Conductor, Quite A Handful, and Oil Man. So if you wanted to go in that direction I wouldn't blame you.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
8 Reb /3-1/ 9-2
9 Black Bear Island/ 4-1 /6-1
7 Take The Points /5-1/ 8-1
10 Giant Oak/ 6-1 /9-1
The next race is the 1 and 3/16 Mile G1 Beverly D. Stakes for Fillies and Mares for 3 and older.
For this race I again go to the entry ridden by Julien Leparoux for the top choice. No I don't have a particular thing for Leparoux. I do, along with Kent Desormeaux, consider him to be among the best turf riders in North America. Something about those Acadians. In this case, I do consider the #2 Pure Clan to be the best horse in the race. Pure Clan is a multiple graded stakes winner including last years American Oaks and Leparoux always seems to get her best out of her. She has 5 wins in 8 tries over grass 2 wins in 3 attempts at the distance and is 1 for 1 over the Arlington course.
The next selection is the foreign shipper #1 Alnadana has been showing very strong recent form in some classy Group 2 and 3 races in France and England including a win last out in the Group 3 Prix Messidor. She won that race by 3 lengths and, according to the Racing Post, http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/alnadana-maisons-laffitte-france-alnadana-dominates-prix-messidor/610071/, the margin of victory could have been more.
The next selection is the #7 Dynaforce ridden by, are you ready, Kent Desormeaux. At 10-1 in the morning line, Dynaforce may be the over looked horse in the race if the ML is accurate. Dynaforce showed a nice move forward in her last race from the previous and any further improvement would put her right into contention in this spot.
For the 4th selection, I was leaning towards the 6 Tizaqueena until I learned that Alnadana is likely to contest her for the lead. Not wanting to speedy types as contenders on grass I moved to the California shipper #4 Black Mamba ridden by Garrett Gomez. If this multiple graded stakes winner can duplicate her last effort she should be a factor at the end.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
2 Pure Clan /3-1 /9-2
1 Alnadana/ 4-1/ 6-1
7 Dynaforce /4-1/ 6-1
4 Black Mamba /6-1 /9-1
The Main Event today is, of course, The Arlington Million Stakes-G1 1 and 1/4 miles for 3 yo and up
For this race the Weasel is going to go out on a limb and make, oh let's see, Ummm #6 Gio Ponti the favorite. Gio Ponti has won 3 consecutive G1 races making a 5 wide move last out to take the Man O War last out. Ramon Dominquez gets the call today. Ramon cost me a lot of money in, I think it was the 3rd race, last Saturday at Saratoga with his aggressive ride that the stewards chose to forgive. Maybe this week I'll have him on my side, but I doubt it.
#2 Presious Passion is another hot horse who has been toying with the competition at Monmouth. Today PP will have to survive the challenge from "cheap" speed in the form of Recapturetheglory. It looks like a mismatch, but if he can stay with PP for a 1/2, maybe it will take enough out of the front running gelding to give the rest a chance.
Next is the crowd favorite #1 Einstein who never runs a bad race and returns to his favorite surface. Einstein has never won the Million. I for one will be pulling for him to put this notch in his belt and may even bet on it if the price is right.
This field is so deep that G1 winner #5 Mr. Sidney is 10/1 in the morning line. The distance may not be his best, but is he stays at 10/1 or better this winner of 5 out of 7 on the grass would certainly be worth a look.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
6 Gio Ponti /2-1 /3-1
2 Presious Passion/ 9-2/ 7-1
1 Einstein /5-1/ 8-1
5 Mr. Sidney /6-1/ 9-1
Finally we move over to Saratoga, where your's truly will be in attendance this coming Friday and Saturday, for the G1 Whitney Hdcp.
#7 Commentator is the sentimental and ML Favorite, but he starts from the disadvantageous outside post, has the naturally speedy Tizway to the inside to contend with, and a much stronger field than the statebreds he beat up on last out. Commentator will have three accomplished closers chasing after him down the stretch.
The numero uno contender here is #4 Macho Again. I made the mistake of discounting Macho Again in the last race he was in that I handicapped the G1 Stephen Foster Hdcp. Having been burned once, I won't ignore him this time out. Doesn't mean I will play him, but I won't be surprised this time out
Next up will be the star-crossed #2 Asiatic Boy with 2 second place finishes in the states. Asiatic Boy will benefit from an inside post position and I expect he will be there at the end again.
The 3rd choice will be #6 Dry Martini. The 6yo gelding has been thriving since moving to Barclay Tagg's barn. Like the previous two, the pace set up should be great for him. I think, realistically, any of the three can win this race. Whoever gets the trip wins, its that close.
The 4th pick is #3 Bullsbay. Throw out his last effort over the plastic surface. Probably a notch below the top 3 picks, keep in your trifecta at the very least.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds/ Overlay (play odds)
4 Macho Again /7-2 /5-1
2 Asiatic Boy/ 7-2/ 5-1
6 Dry Martini /7-2/ 5-1
3 Bullsbay /6-1 /9-1
Those are the picks for the day. Hope you find them useful. Good luck
This just in. The Weasel has learned that the turf at Arlington has been rated yielding and that Recapturetheglory has been scratched from the Arlington Million. In my opinion, this tilts the pace scenario to the benefit of Pressious Passion. However we will have to watch the earlier races to see how speed holds up over the course. The odds line below reflects my change of opinion on the race.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
6 Gio Ponti/ 3-1/ 9-2
2 Presious Passion /3-1 /9-2
1 Einstein/ 5-1/ 8-1
5 Mr. Sidney/ 6-1 /9-1
The first race to cover is the mile and a quarter G1 Secretariat Stakes for 3 year olds. The 1A entry, Driving Snow is an early scratch from the race making the job a little easier.
The 1 Cliffy's Future has never run on Turf before and without much turf pedigree to speak of, The Cliff's Edge (Gulch), appears to be misplaced here. The other easy elimination is Hoosier Kingdom who has been tearing up the Indiana State Breds but will find the opposition here a little more accomplished.
The remaining contenders seem very evenly matched, and you can make a case for each of them. However, they can't all win so we have to take a stand somewhere and this is how I see it.
The top selection is the 8 horse Reb at 5 to 1 in the morning line that price seems pretty fair if it holds up. Winner of 3 straight including the Grade 2 American Derby last out. Julien Leparoux gets the call on this son of Stormy Atlantic, and we'll be looking for him to make a late run.
The second choice ships over off a lackluster Group 1 effort at Longchamp at a Mile and a half. The shorter distance should be to the liking of the number 9 Black Bear Island winner of a Group 2 contest back in may. Additionally, Black Bear Island should feel right at home on a soggy turf course.
The third choice is a horse I liked quite a bit earlier in the year, the 7 horse Take The Points. Although yet to show a win on the turf, the surface switch seems to have been a wake up call for the Pletcher trainee. The comment line says Take The Points hung in finishing 3rd to Battle of Hastings in the Virginia Derby. I think the rider change to Kent Desormeaux may be the difference which finally puts this underachiever over the top.
The fourth choice is the 10 horse Giant Oak. Giant Oak is the horse for course here with 2 wins in 3 tries at Arlington Park. Giant Oak had a troubled trip as the favorite last out and figures to improve position in this race with a better trip.
I think you can also make some sort of case for Proceed Bee, Laureate Conductor, Quite A Handful, and Oil Man. So if you wanted to go in that direction I wouldn't blame you.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
8 Reb /3-1/ 9-2
9 Black Bear Island/ 4-1 /6-1
7 Take The Points /5-1/ 8-1
10 Giant Oak/ 6-1 /9-1
The next race is the 1 and 3/16 Mile G1 Beverly D. Stakes for Fillies and Mares for 3 and older.
For this race I again go to the entry ridden by Julien Leparoux for the top choice. No I don't have a particular thing for Leparoux. I do, along with Kent Desormeaux, consider him to be among the best turf riders in North America. Something about those Acadians. In this case, I do consider the #2 Pure Clan to be the best horse in the race. Pure Clan is a multiple graded stakes winner including last years American Oaks and Leparoux always seems to get her best out of her. She has 5 wins in 8 tries over grass 2 wins in 3 attempts at the distance and is 1 for 1 over the Arlington course.
The next selection is the foreign shipper #1 Alnadana has been showing very strong recent form in some classy Group 2 and 3 races in France and England including a win last out in the Group 3 Prix Messidor. She won that race by 3 lengths and, according to the Racing Post, http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/alnadana-maisons-laffitte-france-alnadana-dominates-prix-messidor/610071/, the margin of victory could have been more.
The next selection is the #7 Dynaforce ridden by, are you ready, Kent Desormeaux. At 10-1 in the morning line, Dynaforce may be the over looked horse in the race if the ML is accurate. Dynaforce showed a nice move forward in her last race from the previous and any further improvement would put her right into contention in this spot.
For the 4th selection, I was leaning towards the 6 Tizaqueena until I learned that Alnadana is likely to contest her for the lead. Not wanting to speedy types as contenders on grass I moved to the California shipper #4 Black Mamba ridden by Garrett Gomez. If this multiple graded stakes winner can duplicate her last effort she should be a factor at the end.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
2 Pure Clan /3-1 /9-2
1 Alnadana/ 4-1/ 6-1
7 Dynaforce /4-1/ 6-1
4 Black Mamba /6-1 /9-1
The Main Event today is, of course, The Arlington Million Stakes-G1 1 and 1/4 miles for 3 yo and up
For this race the Weasel is going to go out on a limb and make, oh let's see, Ummm #6 Gio Ponti the favorite. Gio Ponti has won 3 consecutive G1 races making a 5 wide move last out to take the Man O War last out. Ramon Dominquez gets the call today. Ramon cost me a lot of money in, I think it was the 3rd race, last Saturday at Saratoga with his aggressive ride that the stewards chose to forgive. Maybe this week I'll have him on my side, but I doubt it.
#2 Presious Passion is another hot horse who has been toying with the competition at Monmouth. Today PP will have to survive the challenge from "cheap" speed in the form of Recapturetheglory. It looks like a mismatch, but if he can stay with PP for a 1/2, maybe it will take enough out of the front running gelding to give the rest a chance.
Next is the crowd favorite #1 Einstein who never runs a bad race and returns to his favorite surface. Einstein has never won the Million. I for one will be pulling for him to put this notch in his belt and may even bet on it if the price is right.
This field is so deep that G1 winner #5 Mr. Sidney is 10/1 in the morning line. The distance may not be his best, but is he stays at 10/1 or better this winner of 5 out of 7 on the grass would certainly be worth a look.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
6 Gio Ponti /2-1 /3-1
2 Presious Passion/ 9-2/ 7-1
1 Einstein /5-1/ 8-1
5 Mr. Sidney /6-1/ 9-1
Finally we move over to Saratoga, where your's truly will be in attendance this coming Friday and Saturday, for the G1 Whitney Hdcp.
#7 Commentator is the sentimental and ML Favorite, but he starts from the disadvantageous outside post, has the naturally speedy Tizway to the inside to contend with, and a much stronger field than the statebreds he beat up on last out. Commentator will have three accomplished closers chasing after him down the stretch.
The numero uno contender here is #4 Macho Again. I made the mistake of discounting Macho Again in the last race he was in that I handicapped the G1 Stephen Foster Hdcp. Having been burned once, I won't ignore him this time out. Doesn't mean I will play him, but I won't be surprised this time out
Next up will be the star-crossed #2 Asiatic Boy with 2 second place finishes in the states. Asiatic Boy will benefit from an inside post position and I expect he will be there at the end again.
The 3rd choice will be #6 Dry Martini. The 6yo gelding has been thriving since moving to Barclay Tagg's barn. Like the previous two, the pace set up should be great for him. I think, realistically, any of the three can win this race. Whoever gets the trip wins, its that close.
The 4th pick is #3 Bullsbay. Throw out his last effort over the plastic surface. Probably a notch below the top 3 picks, keep in your trifecta at the very least.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds/ Overlay (play odds)
4 Macho Again /7-2 /5-1
2 Asiatic Boy/ 7-2/ 5-1
6 Dry Martini /7-2/ 5-1
3 Bullsbay /6-1 /9-1
Those are the picks for the day. Hope you find them useful. Good luck
This just in. The Weasel has learned that the turf at Arlington has been rated yielding and that Recapturetheglory has been scratched from the Arlington Million. In my opinion, this tilts the pace scenario to the benefit of Pressious Passion. However we will have to watch the earlier races to see how speed holds up over the course. The odds line below reflects my change of opinion on the race.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
6 Gio Ponti/ 3-1/ 9-2
2 Presious Passion /3-1 /9-2
1 Einstein/ 5-1/ 8-1
5 Mr. Sidney/ 6-1 /9-1
Friday, August 7, 2009
Coming To A Spa Near You
The Chalk Eating Weasel is very happy to announce that he will be in attendance, live and in person, at the race track at Saratoga Springs, NY on August 14 and 15. I look forward to meeting any of my fellow TBA bloggers who may be in attendance or any readers that find anything I do here of value. Drop me a line and maybe we can put our heads together and take some money away from these well heeled Summer-time patrons. Now that's taxation of the rich I can support.
I am also happy to tell you that I have already made selections for the Public Handicapper races of the week. Unfortunately, three of the races are on the turf at Arlington. Normally, not a problem, but the weather for tomorrow is a little iffy with thunderstorms predicted for overnight and tomorrow morning. I will have to wait until tomorrow morning and see if the races will still be on turf and check the scratches before I make final decisions. So tune in later.
I am also happy to tell you that I have already made selections for the Public Handicapper races of the week. Unfortunately, three of the races are on the turf at Arlington. Normally, not a problem, but the weather for tomorrow is a little iffy with thunderstorms predicted for overnight and tomorrow morning. I will have to wait until tomorrow morning and see if the races will still be on turf and check the scratches before I make final decisions. So tune in later.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Scratches in the Lady Secret
If you've been paying attention, you have already noted that there have been some scratches in the Lady Secret. No doubt the sloppy going has something to do with this. Among the scratches is my top selection Spritely. No worries, a check the PP's of the remaining contenders shows that they have all shown an ability to handle the off going. Just slide everyone up one slot in the contender list.
An addition to the contender list is the #5 Devil House who now becomes the lone E8 horse in the race with the scratch of Spritely. I don't really know about Monmouth, but many times a sealed sloppy track at Calder gets very fast and if DH can get loose they may not catch her today.
Wow that was a big crowd getting their picture taken in the winner's circle for race 9!
One last word. While all the contenders have shown ability in off going, the 2 horse Annabil is 3 wins in 7 tries with 6 finishes in the money in the off going. Also, in race 9, the 5 horse who won didn't immediately get the lead as the 9 horse shot out of the gate and crossed the entire field to get to the rail, but he/she was 2nd down the back stretch, took over and never looked back.
This post has been powered by a frosty mint julep
Good luck
An addition to the contender list is the #5 Devil House who now becomes the lone E8 horse in the race with the scratch of Spritely. I don't really know about Monmouth, but many times a sealed sloppy track at Calder gets very fast and if DH can get loose they may not catch her today.
Wow that was a big crowd getting their picture taken in the winner's circle for race 9!
One last word. While all the contenders have shown ability in off going, the 2 horse Annabil is 3 wins in 7 tries with 6 finishes in the money in the off going. Also, in race 9, the 5 horse who won didn't immediately get the lead as the 9 horse shot out of the gate and crossed the entire field to get to the rail, but he/she was 2nd down the back stretch, took over and never looked back.
This post has been powered by a frosty mint julep
Good luck
From the Spa To The Shore
Back from the simulcast room at Gulfstream where I spent the day pondering the puzzles of Saratoga. Forever Together was no puzzle in frustrating Rutherienne once again. Warrior's Reward did run better this time, as expected, but not well enough to beat Kensei in the Jim Dandy. Good day for Steve Asmussen winning the W. Va Derby then turning around for the Jim Dandy to complete the exacta. Just missed with Strawberry Tart. Since I haven't actually seen the race, I don't really know what happened to the other contenders.
Always a glutton for punishment, I have one more selection as the Public Handicapper contest spans the weekend moving down to the Jersey shore for a Haskell preliminary race the 100k Lady's Secret Stakes for fillies and mares 3 and up.
An interesting race as it seems all the best horses are starting from the difficult outside post positions. What's a poor handicapper to do? Well you can either hold your nose and pick them anyways, go inside and hope for an upset, or try a little of both.
At least the top choice is not a compromise as the Weasel likes the #6 Spritely trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by J. R. Velazquez. While Spritely sports an E8 Quirin Figure and likes to be on or near the lead, she has shown she is not a "need to lead" type which is going to serve her well with the speedy Devil House to her inside.
The 2nd choice is in the statiscally challenged outside #8 post. Jasmine Gardens has been showing good form for trainer Albertrani. She has won twice over the grounds in two tries and has shown a liking for the distance. Former Calder apprentice (no more) Paco Lopez gets the call.
The 3rd selection, #7 Ask The Moon is coming out of a nice stakes win over the course and should be on or near the lead early. Joe Bravo certainly knows his way around the track so I have to give her a chance here.
Finally, if you're shopping for a price, take a look at # 2 Annabill. This 6 yo mare is no stranger to the winner's circle having made it a respectable 18 in 45 tries. She has won a stakes event this year and showed good improvement in her 2nd race over the Monmouth oval. If you want to try your luck with this crafty veteran you're going to have to project further improvement and demand a price. What you do get for your leap of faith is a 25% winner in Elvis Trujillo and Steve DiMauro who wins Non Graded stakes at a 22% clip with a positive ROI.
I'll try to be in on the action in this race provided I'm not at our own shore watching the dog frolic in the surf.
Good Luck until next time
The 3rd choice
Always a glutton for punishment, I have one more selection as the Public Handicapper contest spans the weekend moving down to the Jersey shore for a Haskell preliminary race the 100k Lady's Secret Stakes for fillies and mares 3 and up.
An interesting race as it seems all the best horses are starting from the difficult outside post positions. What's a poor handicapper to do? Well you can either hold your nose and pick them anyways, go inside and hope for an upset, or try a little of both.
At least the top choice is not a compromise as the Weasel likes the #6 Spritely trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by J. R. Velazquez. While Spritely sports an E8 Quirin Figure and likes to be on or near the lead, she has shown she is not a "need to lead" type which is going to serve her well with the speedy Devil House to her inside.
The 2nd choice is in the statiscally challenged outside #8 post. Jasmine Gardens has been showing good form for trainer Albertrani. She has won twice over the grounds in two tries and has shown a liking for the distance. Former Calder apprentice (no more) Paco Lopez gets the call.
The 3rd selection, #7 Ask The Moon is coming out of a nice stakes win over the course and should be on or near the lead early. Joe Bravo certainly knows his way around the track so I have to give her a chance here.
Finally, if you're shopping for a price, take a look at # 2 Annabill. This 6 yo mare is no stranger to the winner's circle having made it a respectable 18 in 45 tries. She has won a stakes event this year and showed good improvement in her 2nd race over the Monmouth oval. If you want to try your luck with this crafty veteran you're going to have to project further improvement and demand a price. What you do get for your leap of faith is a 25% winner in Elvis Trujillo and Steve DiMauro who wins Non Graded stakes at a 22% clip with a positive ROI.
I'll try to be in on the action in this race provided I'm not at our own shore watching the dog frolic in the surf.
Good Luck until next time
The 3rd choice
Saturday, August 1, 2009
Life Happens
I'm sorry its been so long but sometimes life gets in the way of the things we'd rather be doing. Two weeks ago I was up to Orlando with my wife and daughter for the UCF open house. Last week, I was having ATT U-Verse installed and was down all Saturday morning and into the afternoon. I have been forced to work through lunch at my job which cuts down some of my most productive handicapping time. This morning my wife went out to a dead battery in her car, so here I sit with 90 minutes to first post at Calder and no races on the card handicapped.
Fortunately, I went through most of the Saratoga card at the beach last night, and I have the Public handicapper race from Del Mar as well. The fourth race is from Monmouth tomorrow, so I'll get to that later.
Ok, this is an abbreviated Weasel Saturday as I still have to shower and wash of the battery changing grime before schlepping over to Gulfstream to watch the Saratoga races. Unless I change my mind and choose to play the home game that is.
The G1 Diana Race 9
I'm still trying to figure out if Rutherienne is running today at the spa or tomorrow at the shore as she is dual entered. However, Saratoga just posted their scratches and she's still in as far as I can tell so I'll go the direction for now.
Still the top choice is #10 Forever Together followed by #3 Rutherienne (if in) #2 Quiet Meadow who seems to be finally getting it and #4 Indescribable. If Rutherienne scratches move the other two up 1 position and throw in #6 Carribean Sunset. As a side note, I would really like Criticism, but the Spa turf is tough on front runners, but sometimes a soggy course can favor the leaders so watch how the surface playing.
G2 Jim Dandy Race 10
The pick is #4 Warrior's Reward who had a bad start in the Dwyer and managed to finish 3rd making up a lot of ground in the process. 2nd choice is #3 Kensei, the winner of the Dwyer. #5 Charitable Man is the 3rd pick and #1 Saratoga Sinner with Leparoux comes off a 6 month layoff to be the 4th choice. My only trepidation about SS is why put a G3 winning 3 year old on the shelf during what could be said prime time for 3 yo racing? But if he's healthy, he is capable of beating all of these.
G2 San Clemente Hdcp Race 8 Del Mar
I'm looking for bit of an upset here with #3 Strawberry Tart in what seems to me to be a somewhat weak G2 field. Even though 7/2 in the ML ST might slip under the radar and give a decent price. The 2nd choice is #9 Acting Lady who is a legit G2 winner with Joe Talamo aboard. The 3rd pick is #4 Carlsbad trying the turf for the 1st time certainly has the credentials to win here if she takes to the surface. Her pedigree 3 turf works suggest she will, but she will also have to put away Oliginowile on the front end to have a chance. The fourth pick is #1 Nan who has been chasing the best 3 year old fillies all year. This may be her race to finally shine.
That's it for an abbreviated Weasel Report. Check back later for the 4th pick from Monmouth tomorrow.
Fortunately, I went through most of the Saratoga card at the beach last night, and I have the Public handicapper race from Del Mar as well. The fourth race is from Monmouth tomorrow, so I'll get to that later.
Ok, this is an abbreviated Weasel Saturday as I still have to shower and wash of the battery changing grime before schlepping over to Gulfstream to watch the Saratoga races. Unless I change my mind and choose to play the home game that is.
The G1 Diana Race 9
I'm still trying to figure out if Rutherienne is running today at the spa or tomorrow at the shore as she is dual entered. However, Saratoga just posted their scratches and she's still in as far as I can tell so I'll go the direction for now.
Still the top choice is #10 Forever Together followed by #3 Rutherienne (if in) #2 Quiet Meadow who seems to be finally getting it and #4 Indescribable. If Rutherienne scratches move the other two up 1 position and throw in #6 Carribean Sunset. As a side note, I would really like Criticism, but the Spa turf is tough on front runners, but sometimes a soggy course can favor the leaders so watch how the surface playing.
G2 Jim Dandy Race 10
The pick is #4 Warrior's Reward who had a bad start in the Dwyer and managed to finish 3rd making up a lot of ground in the process. 2nd choice is #3 Kensei, the winner of the Dwyer. #5 Charitable Man is the 3rd pick and #1 Saratoga Sinner with Leparoux comes off a 6 month layoff to be the 4th choice. My only trepidation about SS is why put a G3 winning 3 year old on the shelf during what could be said prime time for 3 yo racing? But if he's healthy, he is capable of beating all of these.
G2 San Clemente Hdcp Race 8 Del Mar
I'm looking for bit of an upset here with #3 Strawberry Tart in what seems to me to be a somewhat weak G2 field. Even though 7/2 in the ML ST might slip under the radar and give a decent price. The 2nd choice is #9 Acting Lady who is a legit G2 winner with Joe Talamo aboard. The 3rd pick is #4 Carlsbad trying the turf for the 1st time certainly has the credentials to win here if she takes to the surface. Her pedigree 3 turf works suggest she will, but she will also have to put away Oliginowile on the front end to have a chance. The fourth pick is #1 Nan who has been chasing the best 3 year old fillies all year. This may be her race to finally shine.
That's it for an abbreviated Weasel Report. Check back later for the 4th pick from Monmouth tomorrow.
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