Quickly back with the last 3 races of Calder's Summit of Speed.
The Carry Back Stakes, Race 9 on your program consists of D' Funnybone and 4 pretenders necessary to fill the race. D' Funnybone consistently runs 6f almost 2 seconds faster than any of the others. The only way to play this race is to use D' Funnybone as a single in your Pick 4
As I said this is just a quickie as I would like to take a look at todays Belmont Card before heading to the races.
For the G3 Azalea Stakes #5 Buckleupbuttercup turns back in distance and trainer Eddie Kenneally is 33% with the Route to Sprint maneuver. #8 Pica Slew blistered the track here in the Leave Me Alone Stakes on Pre-View day so look for another good showing from her. Finally Bronx City Girl is first of the claim for Marty Wolfson. Marty doesn't play the claiming game very often but he does it at a 78% success rate next out. Still #6BCG has not proven herself in any way in stakes competition and only merits 3rd choice.
Odds
#5 Buckleupbuttercup play at 2/1 or better
#8 Pica Slew play at 9/2 or better
#6 Bronx City Girl plat at 9/1 or better.
The 11th race, The Princess Rooney Handicap-G1, is a good contentious affair. Again there are 6 or maybe 7 that have legit chances here, but I have to settle on only 3 or in this case 4 contenders. #7 Dr. Zic is one who didn't make the cut although I wouldn't be surprised if she wires the field. #13 First Passage is a horse for the course, but I think her late closing running style combined with the far outside draw hurts her chances here. Still watch for the weather, a drying track at Calder can do funny things to the track profile, and for scratches which may move First Passage a few lanes closer to the rail.
The 4 I settled on are #8 Dubai Majesty, almost another horse for the course with 3 wins in 8 races coming out of a G3 win in the Winning Colors at Churchill Downs. #9 Warbling who is probably as good as if not better than Dubai Majesty, just don't know how she'll handle the track. #5 Mother Ruth who just has the look of a horse that has suddenly learned what its all about. and #4 Hour Glass who is 4 of 5 at the distance and comes of a G2 win at Belmont, Vagrancy Handicap.
Playable odds
#8 Dubai Majesty 9/2
#9 Warbling 5/1
#5 Mother Ruth 7/1
#4 Hour Glass 8/1
That's all today.
I'm gone
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Grade 2 Smile Sprint Handicap from Calder Race Course
On July 10 Calder Race Course (and casino) will be holding their annual Summit of Speed. This year I will bring some of my feelings on the races beginning today with Race 10 in your program, the Smile Sprint Handicap. As is my custom, I will be attending the races live and might even stray from the simulcast monitors long enough to go down and look at the horses if it's not raining. Look for me. I'll have on the sunglasses and the brown HANA (Horseplayers Association of North America) cap. Speaking of HANA. After this day is over, I am going to write an article regarding my take on the day and how well, or poorly Calder Race Course (and casino) handled what should be a large crowd and submit it to HANA for posting on their website.
The Smile Sprint looks to be an exciting race on paper. 13 are entered. Personally I'd like to see at least 5 of the entries scratched as I don't think they really belong in this race. Rusty Charlie was passed as if he was standing still when he faced of against Big Drama in what was certainly a tune up race for the latter 2 back. Trainer Francisco Machado then foolishly brought ol' Rusty back on 7 days rest for another overnight try in which Charlie failed miserably. give ol' Rusty a break because he doesn't belong with these.
Sincero, Gato Go Win, How's Your Halo, Causeway's Kin, Not For Silver, and Golden Spikes are the other non-contenders of which, with varying degrees of vehemence, I would like to see exit the race gracefully pre-post.
This still leaves us with a nice contentious race consisting of #2 Go Go Shoot trained by Pletcher with David Cohen on board. I don't recall ever seeing Cohen ride for Pletcher, but, according to Brisnet's Ultimate PP's he's done 15 times in the last 60 days and done it quite well with a 45% win rate. Go Go Shoot has some flashy speed and should set the pace or certainly be a major pace factor on a speed favoring track. But there is a lot of other speed in this race and horses like Rusty Charlie, Causeway's Kin or Taqarub may force him to go faster than he'd like early on. Go Go Shoot has run twice before on the Calder Course and has yet to show any particular liking for the surface. I think Saturday will be more or the same in that regard for Go Go Shoot.
#13 Snapshot is the other horse in this race I think could win but probably won't. If all 13 go in this race I see him getting hung out wide on the turn considering a fast early pace will make that turn come faster than someone from the far outside probably wants it to.
Now for the primary contenders. The interesting horse in this race is #3 Mambo Meister ridden by local perennial jockey leader Manoel Cruz and trained by Phillip Gleaves. Mambo Meister has 9 wins in 29 starts and I think nearly all of them have come on this track (you can check that if you want too). In any event, I do know that Mambo Meister is 6 for 9 at CRC and no rider knows this track better than Manny Cruz. Especially if it rains. What is interesting is that Mambo Meister has mostly been a router up to now. However the workout line shows 4 works since his last outing a 4 furlong and three 3 furlong works including a blistering 34 sec sprint on June 28. I don't usually pay much attention to workouts, but this caught my eye enough to make Mambo Meister the #4 contender at 6-1 odds, play him at 9-1 or better.
The #3 contender is #7 Taqarub trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and ridden by Edgar Prado. Winner of his last out on Preakness day at 13-1 and being recently flattered by Roaring Lion at Monmouth this 4 year old colt is 4 for 5 at the distance and 1 for 1 on off tracks which is something to pay attention to at CRC in the Summer time. Taqarub is 5-1 on my line play him at 8-1 or better
The co-#1 contender is #8 Congressional Page (Trombetta/Albarado). Congressional Page has never lost at this distance and is 2 for 2 on off tracks. Congressional Page is a pressing type with the tactical speed to stay close enough to catch the front runners. I think the race sets up for him from a pace stand point. Congressional Page burned up the track in his last out at Monmouth covering 6f in 1:09.4. I make CP co favorite at 3-1, play at 9/2 or better with #10 Big Drama.
#10 Big Drama (Fawkes/Coa) romped easily past ol' Rusty Charlie in a leisurely 1:10.6 in the Ponche Hdcp. I watched that race and note that he could've gone faster, he just didn't have to.
Big Drama is a G2 winner who just loves CRC and a definite horse for the course with 5 wins in 6 tries. As a 2 year old Big Drama dominated the Florida Stallion Stakes Series. Big Drama is 3 for 3 at this distance and along with being the horse for the course becomes my co-favorite at 3-1, play at 9/2 or better.
To some these odds may seem a little high and you don't want to sit out this race. Really though, there are 6 solid choices in this race that should take serious money. I feel pretty certain there will be an overlay to be found among these four, maybe even two. Hold out for a price because I think this race will be too tight to be eatin' any low-priced chalk.
Later
The Smile Sprint looks to be an exciting race on paper. 13 are entered. Personally I'd like to see at least 5 of the entries scratched as I don't think they really belong in this race. Rusty Charlie was passed as if he was standing still when he faced of against Big Drama in what was certainly a tune up race for the latter 2 back. Trainer Francisco Machado then foolishly brought ol' Rusty back on 7 days rest for another overnight try in which Charlie failed miserably. give ol' Rusty a break because he doesn't belong with these.
Sincero, Gato Go Win, How's Your Halo, Causeway's Kin, Not For Silver, and Golden Spikes are the other non-contenders of which, with varying degrees of vehemence, I would like to see exit the race gracefully pre-post.
This still leaves us with a nice contentious race consisting of #2 Go Go Shoot trained by Pletcher with David Cohen on board. I don't recall ever seeing Cohen ride for Pletcher, but, according to Brisnet's Ultimate PP's he's done 15 times in the last 60 days and done it quite well with a 45% win rate. Go Go Shoot has some flashy speed and should set the pace or certainly be a major pace factor on a speed favoring track. But there is a lot of other speed in this race and horses like Rusty Charlie, Causeway's Kin or Taqarub may force him to go faster than he'd like early on. Go Go Shoot has run twice before on the Calder Course and has yet to show any particular liking for the surface. I think Saturday will be more or the same in that regard for Go Go Shoot.
#13 Snapshot is the other horse in this race I think could win but probably won't. If all 13 go in this race I see him getting hung out wide on the turn considering a fast early pace will make that turn come faster than someone from the far outside probably wants it to.
Now for the primary contenders. The interesting horse in this race is #3 Mambo Meister ridden by local perennial jockey leader Manoel Cruz and trained by Phillip Gleaves. Mambo Meister has 9 wins in 29 starts and I think nearly all of them have come on this track (you can check that if you want too). In any event, I do know that Mambo Meister is 6 for 9 at CRC and no rider knows this track better than Manny Cruz. Especially if it rains. What is interesting is that Mambo Meister has mostly been a router up to now. However the workout line shows 4 works since his last outing a 4 furlong and three 3 furlong works including a blistering 34 sec sprint on June 28. I don't usually pay much attention to workouts, but this caught my eye enough to make Mambo Meister the #4 contender at 6-1 odds, play him at 9-1 or better.
The #3 contender is #7 Taqarub trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and ridden by Edgar Prado. Winner of his last out on Preakness day at 13-1 and being recently flattered by Roaring Lion at Monmouth this 4 year old colt is 4 for 5 at the distance and 1 for 1 on off tracks which is something to pay attention to at CRC in the Summer time. Taqarub is 5-1 on my line play him at 8-1 or better
The co-#1 contender is #8 Congressional Page (Trombetta/Albarado). Congressional Page has never lost at this distance and is 2 for 2 on off tracks. Congressional Page is a pressing type with the tactical speed to stay close enough to catch the front runners. I think the race sets up for him from a pace stand point. Congressional Page burned up the track in his last out at Monmouth covering 6f in 1:09.4. I make CP co favorite at 3-1, play at 9/2 or better with #10 Big Drama.
#10 Big Drama (Fawkes/Coa) romped easily past ol' Rusty Charlie in a leisurely 1:10.6 in the Ponche Hdcp. I watched that race and note that he could've gone faster, he just didn't have to.
Big Drama is a G2 winner who just loves CRC and a definite horse for the course with 5 wins in 6 tries. As a 2 year old Big Drama dominated the Florida Stallion Stakes Series. Big Drama is 3 for 3 at this distance and along with being the horse for the course becomes my co-favorite at 3-1, play at 9/2 or better.
To some these odds may seem a little high and you don't want to sit out this race. Really though, there are 6 solid choices in this race that should take serious money. I feel pretty certain there will be an overlay to be found among these four, maybe even two. Hold out for a price because I think this race will be too tight to be eatin' any low-priced chalk.
Later
Saturday, May 8, 2010
All's Quiet
It's that quiet time between the Derby and the Preakness. Many of the trainers and owners playing it cagey in trying to decide whether to run in the Preakness or skip the middle and load up for the Belmont.
As for me, I stand by my position that Jackson Bend should have skipped the Derby and aimed directly for the Preakness. Conveyance and Noble's Promise are not in the Preakness. Ice Box is out and they are still on the fence regarding Lookin at Lucky and Jackson Bend. I think I saw Pleasant Prince will be in.
You probably know by now Eskendereya is retired to stud. Sad news for racing fans but good news that the injury is not catastrophic. Esky now gets to live the life of a king. Good for him.
A few selections for today.
In the Winter Melody Stakes at Delaware, I like the horse for the course and distance. Delaware Park has been a #5 Magicalcarpetride for the daughter of Smart Strike. Trainer Anthony Dutrow is 43% going turf to dirt. Strong move for Tony and you should get a reasonable price here. #3 Miss Match has been racing against better and appears to be the class in the race. Third choice #8 Mindy Sue has never finished out of the money in 8 trips to the post.
In the Unbridled Sidney at Chuchill Downs #2 Knockout Bertie has been knocking on the door for red-hot trainer Stephen Margolis. I think Sean Bridgmohan will get her to the wire first today. It's hard to pick against 2nd choice #5 Selva, but jockey Robby Albarado has been ice cold at Churchill so far and his record on Turf is less than stellar even in good cirmcumstances. Still, Selva comes out of the key race Bienville60k with a 2nd place finish, so maybe fortunes will turn for Robby today. #8 Candy Cane races for the first time under the tutelage of Rick Dutrow, which is always a live chance in my book.
Belmont Park brings us the G2 Dwyer Stakes for 3 year olds. #2 Drosselmeyer seems to be the one to beat, but you'll have to be willing to accept a fairly low price to back this one. Anything over 7/5 seems fair here. #5 Remand ran a good 3rd in the Bayshore at the Big A and could come home first if Drosselmeyer happens to be looking forward to the Belmont Stakes. #7 Fly Down gets a tepid nod as 3rd choice; however I find the #1 Carnivore interesting as the lone speed long shot try. Carnivore has never run fast enough to beat most in this race, but if he gets brave on the lead who knows what could happen. Play only at a huge price.
Finally hooray for Hollywood and the G2 Mervyn Leroy handicap. #1 Dakota PHONEd the last one in on the dirt at Oaklawn. Now he's back on a more familiar surface and has been running great for Jerry Hollendorfer. If all things were equal, I'd still favor #6 Rail Trip in this position who I think could demolish this field while doing the backstroke. But the 244 day layoff has me thinking Rail Trip might need a race before firing his best shot. RT may not need his best shot to win here, but the price will be short and the layoff makes him vulnerable. #3 Slew's Tiznow rounds out the top three.
That's all I got for today. Going down to Miami to move my son out later. Will be hanging out at Calder tomorrow at the Home Stretch Bar next to the Poker Room. Just shout,"Where's that Chalk Eatin' Weasel?!" if you happen to be in the neighborhood. Maybe I'll buy you a drink.
I'm off
As for me, I stand by my position that Jackson Bend should have skipped the Derby and aimed directly for the Preakness. Conveyance and Noble's Promise are not in the Preakness. Ice Box is out and they are still on the fence regarding Lookin at Lucky and Jackson Bend. I think I saw Pleasant Prince will be in.
You probably know by now Eskendereya is retired to stud. Sad news for racing fans but good news that the injury is not catastrophic. Esky now gets to live the life of a king. Good for him.
A few selections for today.
In the Winter Melody Stakes at Delaware, I like the horse for the course and distance. Delaware Park has been a #5 Magicalcarpetride for the daughter of Smart Strike. Trainer Anthony Dutrow is 43% going turf to dirt. Strong move for Tony and you should get a reasonable price here. #3 Miss Match has been racing against better and appears to be the class in the race. Third choice #8 Mindy Sue has never finished out of the money in 8 trips to the post.
In the Unbridled Sidney at Chuchill Downs #2 Knockout Bertie has been knocking on the door for red-hot trainer Stephen Margolis. I think Sean Bridgmohan will get her to the wire first today. It's hard to pick against 2nd choice #5 Selva, but jockey Robby Albarado has been ice cold at Churchill so far and his record on Turf is less than stellar even in good cirmcumstances. Still, Selva comes out of the key race Bienville60k with a 2nd place finish, so maybe fortunes will turn for Robby today. #8 Candy Cane races for the first time under the tutelage of Rick Dutrow, which is always a live chance in my book.
Belmont Park brings us the G2 Dwyer Stakes for 3 year olds. #2 Drosselmeyer seems to be the one to beat, but you'll have to be willing to accept a fairly low price to back this one. Anything over 7/5 seems fair here. #5 Remand ran a good 3rd in the Bayshore at the Big A and could come home first if Drosselmeyer happens to be looking forward to the Belmont Stakes. #7 Fly Down gets a tepid nod as 3rd choice; however I find the #1 Carnivore interesting as the lone speed long shot try. Carnivore has never run fast enough to beat most in this race, but if he gets brave on the lead who knows what could happen. Play only at a huge price.
Finally hooray for Hollywood and the G2 Mervyn Leroy handicap. #1 Dakota PHONEd the last one in on the dirt at Oaklawn. Now he's back on a more familiar surface and has been running great for Jerry Hollendorfer. If all things were equal, I'd still favor #6 Rail Trip in this position who I think could demolish this field while doing the backstroke. But the 244 day layoff has me thinking Rail Trip might need a race before firing his best shot. RT may not need his best shot to win here, but the price will be short and the layoff makes him vulnerable. #3 Slew's Tiznow rounds out the top three.
That's all I got for today. Going down to Miami to move my son out later. Will be hanging out at Calder tomorrow at the Home Stretch Bar next to the Poker Room. Just shout,"Where's that Chalk Eatin' Weasel?!" if you happen to be in the neighborhood. Maybe I'll buy you a drink.
I'm off
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Derby Day 2010.."Who'll Stop The Rain"
Just a quicky for Derby Day today. Got to look at the form for Calder as the wife ambushed me with the assumption that we were going to Calder for today's festivities. I wanted to watch the racing from the comfort of my living room.
First up is the G1 Humana Distaff. What better race to look for mudders than in a race for 4 and up fillies and mares.
Top pick is #3 Informed Decision winner of last years Humana on a sloppy Derby day. Last year Informed Decision also broke from post 3, was 2nd off a layoff, had J. Leparoux aboard, and came out of the G1 Madison at Keeneland. Holy deja vu, Batman! History repeats itself today.
#6 has been "Pretty Prolific" on an off track and has been swapping strides with the number 3 contender, Warbling, for the last three races winning once and finishing behind her the other two times. The win came on a sloppy track; therefore advantage Pretty Prolific.
#2 Warbling is fairly accomplished for a mere 5 race career including a win over next out winner Tar Heel Mom in the G2 Inside Information stakes at Gulfstream Park last out. Look's like she can handle an off track OK and should have a strong chance here.
If you're looking for a live longshot look no further than the #9 Rated Fiesty running for Steve Asmussen. 1 for 1 in slop and 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs. She's not as accomplished as the other 3, but she does have ability and the stars may be aligned for her today.
The G2 Churchill Downs is full of familiar names the classiest of which may be #7 Warrior's Reward. Once again J. Leparoux has the reins. Warrior has found rewards on off going and is 3 for 4 at the distance. A true specialist at this distance.
#12 Musket Man ran well in the Derby last year finishing 3rd and has been triple digit Brisnet consistent losing by only a nose to the top choice last out. If the top choice falters in any way, Musket Man should be right there
3rd choice is #8 Ventana a G2 winner last out. Raced well in one try over off going and ships in for Bob Baffert who is an astonishing 24% in Graded races with a positive ROI meaning all these runners are not going off at short prices. Jockey of the year runner up Garret Gomez is in the irons and West Coast runner have been doing well when coming east.
Long shot choice for this race is #13 Accredit. 5 for 5 on off tracks he is a true mudder who might take it all if he is on his fodder. Sorry I just couldn't help myself. Accredit won this race last year at 4 to 1 and considering the competition I expect he'll be a longer price this year.
Now for the Derby. Truth is, I don't have a clue. But I have opinions. I've been Lookin at Lucky since the Rebel and can't stop now even with the #1 post position draw. #1 Lookin at Lucky is the top choice.
The next choice in order are #6 Stately Victor, #10 Paddy O Prado with excellent off track breeding and #11 Devil May Care who has been working well on the sloppy Churchill track.
Good luck and I'm Off
First up is the G1 Humana Distaff. What better race to look for mudders than in a race for 4 and up fillies and mares.
Top pick is #3 Informed Decision winner of last years Humana on a sloppy Derby day. Last year Informed Decision also broke from post 3, was 2nd off a layoff, had J. Leparoux aboard, and came out of the G1 Madison at Keeneland. Holy deja vu, Batman! History repeats itself today.
#6 has been "Pretty Prolific" on an off track and has been swapping strides with the number 3 contender, Warbling, for the last three races winning once and finishing behind her the other two times. The win came on a sloppy track; therefore advantage Pretty Prolific.
#2 Warbling is fairly accomplished for a mere 5 race career including a win over next out winner Tar Heel Mom in the G2 Inside Information stakes at Gulfstream Park last out. Look's like she can handle an off track OK and should have a strong chance here.
If you're looking for a live longshot look no further than the #9 Rated Fiesty running for Steve Asmussen. 1 for 1 in slop and 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs. She's not as accomplished as the other 3, but she does have ability and the stars may be aligned for her today.
The G2 Churchill Downs is full of familiar names the classiest of which may be #7 Warrior's Reward. Once again J. Leparoux has the reins. Warrior has found rewards on off going and is 3 for 4 at the distance. A true specialist at this distance.
#12 Musket Man ran well in the Derby last year finishing 3rd and has been triple digit Brisnet consistent losing by only a nose to the top choice last out. If the top choice falters in any way, Musket Man should be right there
3rd choice is #8 Ventana a G2 winner last out. Raced well in one try over off going and ships in for Bob Baffert who is an astonishing 24% in Graded races with a positive ROI meaning all these runners are not going off at short prices. Jockey of the year runner up Garret Gomez is in the irons and West Coast runner have been doing well when coming east.
Long shot choice for this race is #13 Accredit. 5 for 5 on off tracks he is a true mudder who might take it all if he is on his fodder. Sorry I just couldn't help myself. Accredit won this race last year at 4 to 1 and considering the competition I expect he'll be a longer price this year.
Now for the Derby. Truth is, I don't have a clue. But I have opinions. I've been Lookin at Lucky since the Rebel and can't stop now even with the #1 post position draw. #1 Lookin at Lucky is the top choice.
The next choice in order are #6 Stately Victor, #10 Paddy O Prado with excellent off track breeding and #11 Devil May Care who has been working well on the sloppy Churchill track.
Good luck and I'm Off
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Ladies First
The most important day of racing in North America, Breeder's Cup included, is preceded by the KY Derby equivalent for 3 year old fillies, the Kentucky Oaks to be run tomorrow at 5:45. Unlike the first Saturday in May this year, the forecast for the last Friday in April for Louisville is sunny skies
Last year's edition featured a short field that was completely outclassed by Rachel Alexander. This years offering should be an interesting race with a full field of betting opportunities.
There is a class horse in the race by the name of Blind Luck a multiple Grade 1 stakes winner and third place finisher in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies last year. Blind Luck is your likely favorite and deserves to be, but she isn't a slam dunk.
Amen Hallelujah is consistent as all get out having finished in the money in 5 consecutive graded events. She has excellent tactical speed and will likely be forwardly placed, but she is not a need to lead type so look for someone else to set the early fractions. Her speed numbers in her last three G2 outing in which she won 2 of 3 put her right in the thick of things. She may be the one to catch when they turn for the stretch. Oh, and did I mention Julien Leparoux?
Evening Jewel won the G1 Ashland at Keeneland last out and came within a nose of the favorite 2 races back. This makes Evening Jewel an automatic contender to upset Blind Luck. Evening Jewel wired the Ashland but don't expect a repeat of that tactic in this race.
The third choice to upset Blind Luck is Beautician. Why not? A cursory look at her form shows what appears to be a spotty performer. On one day and way off the next. But take a closer look.
Beautician broke her maiden in her first race on this very track. Went directly to Saratoga with 2 strong efforts in the G3 Schuylerville and G1 Spinaway Stakes. Moved on to Keeneland in the fall on their all-weather surface turning in a so-so effort. Bested Blind Luck in the BC Juvenile with a 2nd place finish. Real bad at Hollywood, different surface. Real good at Oaklawn, back on dirt and so-so again at Keeneland. Now she is back on the surface she is proven on. Look for a strong effort. I'd go so far as to make her my upset pick for the race.
Quiet Temper and Crisp also deserve mention as possibilities, but you can't play the entire field.
Gun to my head, Blind Luck. However I'll be taking a good hard look to upset Blind Luck in this race and think I have provided three solid prospects to pull that off. Whatever you do, best of luck.
I'll be back with the Derby and other races from Saturday's Churchill card.
Get free PP's for most major stakes racing from the TBA http://www.tbablogs.com/.
I'm off
Last year's edition featured a short field that was completely outclassed by Rachel Alexander. This years offering should be an interesting race with a full field of betting opportunities.
There is a class horse in the race by the name of Blind Luck a multiple Grade 1 stakes winner and third place finisher in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies last year. Blind Luck is your likely favorite and deserves to be, but she isn't a slam dunk.
Amen Hallelujah is consistent as all get out having finished in the money in 5 consecutive graded events. She has excellent tactical speed and will likely be forwardly placed, but she is not a need to lead type so look for someone else to set the early fractions. Her speed numbers in her last three G2 outing in which she won 2 of 3 put her right in the thick of things. She may be the one to catch when they turn for the stretch. Oh, and did I mention Julien Leparoux?
Evening Jewel won the G1 Ashland at Keeneland last out and came within a nose of the favorite 2 races back. This makes Evening Jewel an automatic contender to upset Blind Luck. Evening Jewel wired the Ashland but don't expect a repeat of that tactic in this race.
The third choice to upset Blind Luck is Beautician. Why not? A cursory look at her form shows what appears to be a spotty performer. On one day and way off the next. But take a closer look.
Beautician broke her maiden in her first race on this very track. Went directly to Saratoga with 2 strong efforts in the G3 Schuylerville and G1 Spinaway Stakes. Moved on to Keeneland in the fall on their all-weather surface turning in a so-so effort. Bested Blind Luck in the BC Juvenile with a 2nd place finish. Real bad at Hollywood, different surface. Real good at Oaklawn, back on dirt and so-so again at Keeneland. Now she is back on the surface she is proven on. Look for a strong effort. I'd go so far as to make her my upset pick for the race.
Quiet Temper and Crisp also deserve mention as possibilities, but you can't play the entire field.
Gun to my head, Blind Luck. However I'll be taking a good hard look to upset Blind Luck in this race and think I have provided three solid prospects to pull that off. Whatever you do, best of luck.
I'll be back with the Derby and other races from Saturday's Churchill card.
Get free PP's for most major stakes racing from the TBA http://www.tbablogs.com/.
I'm off
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Skip the Derby--Aim for the Preakness
That's my advice to the connections of the hardest working 3 yo colt in racing, Jackson Bend. Not that they need my advice. Nick Zito has more experience in his little toe than I have in my super-sized body when it comes to placing horses in classic races.
However, it seems to me that Jackson Bend has been chasing Eskendereya up and down the East Coast and clearly seems to be 2nd best to the talented son of Giant's Causeway. Zito implies in an interview on Bloodhorse.com http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56470/jackson-bend-in-fast-workout-at-churchill that JB will need someone to make a mistake.
I would not subject my horse to that cavalry charge unless I thought his chances of succeeding were better than depending on someone else to make an error. Rather, I would point my horse toward a race on a track with tight turns that may favor a horse that is small in stature, but perhaps more agile than his larger counterparts. A track like say.....Pimlico?
Pleasant Prince will run in the G3 Cliff's Edge Derby Trial on April 24 in a last ditch effort to get in the Derby. The winner of this race gains an automatic berth in the Derby. Not exactly the usual path to the Derby winner's circle. Owner Ken Ramsey points out the last horse to pull off the Derby Trial/Derby exacta was Tim Tam in 1958.
Looking at two stakes races from Keeneland today. First up is Race 8, the 5 1/2 furlong (turf) Giant's Causeway for fillies and mares 3 and up
This race is guaranteed to have a lot of pace with 4 need to lead types running. Therefore the logical choice will be an off the pace type and West Ocean, trained by Todd Pletcher, fits the bill perfectly. Winner by 5 lengths in the Bienville at the Fairgrounds last out the 4 yo filly has really awakened since cutting back to sprint distances. Statistic to note is rider JJ Castellano is winning at a 41% clip over the last 60 days when riding for Pletcher.
No turf sprint stakes would be complete without an entry or two from Linda Rice. She has 2 in this race each making their 2010 debuts. Ahvee's Destiny has been training at Palm Meadows in Florida and with speed sitting on the rail has to be considered dangerous. But the stronger of the two is Canadian Ballet who hasn't raced since her Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint effort. Canadian Ballet has also been training at the Florida training track. If the pace of this race didn't promise to be so torrid, this filly could easily be the top selection.
Third choice is Libor Lady. Toss her last on the main track at Santa Anita. This 5 year old mare is 7 for 11 at the distance and never out of the money. Again, only the pace keeps this one down from being a top choice.
In summary, the picks and odds needed to play.
7. West Ocean 2/1
8. Canadian Ballet 5/1
3 Libor Lady 7/1
The other race I'm covering today is the G2 Coolmore Lexington Stakes for three year olds
This race shapes up to be very competitive and a long price will be no surprise. However, I think I have been able to narrow the field down to the main contenders.
My top pick for the race is the horse breaking from pp1, Krypton. Krypton won a 7f allowance for non-winners of one other than last out in decisive fashion. Since there are no real giant killers in this race, only 1 previous G3 winner, I am not overly concerned about the lack of stakes experience here. Key stats for Kypton: Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is 25% with a positive ROI going sprint to route and the Alan Garcia/McLaughlin combination is 38% with a positive ROI over the last 60 days.
Second choice Lonesome Street comes out of a 2nd place effort in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park. The comment line shows some trouble at 7/8th. Key for Lonesome Street is the positive jockey switch to Julien Leparoux. Stats of note: Trainer Michael Maker is 30% on all-weather surfaces (+ROI) and 28% when his horses are running routes (+ROI).
The 3rd choice is the lone speed horse in the race Exhi trained by Todd Pletcher. Exhi is the winner of the Rushaway Stakes and is a sure bet to be leading at the 1/4 and 1/2 poles. The question is whether or not the others will be able to reel him in. Last time out, Lonesome Street could not make up the ground. This time may be different, or, it may not.
Summary and needed odds
1 Krypton 3/1
7 Lonesome Street 9/2
8 Exhi 5/1
Hey be sure to check out the other bloggers of the TBA. We've made it easy for you with the links on the side of the page.
And while you're there, visit the TBA facebook page as well.
However, it seems to me that Jackson Bend has been chasing Eskendereya up and down the East Coast and clearly seems to be 2nd best to the talented son of Giant's Causeway. Zito implies in an interview on Bloodhorse.com http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56470/jackson-bend-in-fast-workout-at-churchill that JB will need someone to make a mistake.
I would not subject my horse to that cavalry charge unless I thought his chances of succeeding were better than depending on someone else to make an error. Rather, I would point my horse toward a race on a track with tight turns that may favor a horse that is small in stature, but perhaps more agile than his larger counterparts. A track like say.....Pimlico?
Pleasant Prince will run in the G3 Cliff's Edge Derby Trial on April 24 in a last ditch effort to get in the Derby. The winner of this race gains an automatic berth in the Derby. Not exactly the usual path to the Derby winner's circle. Owner Ken Ramsey points out the last horse to pull off the Derby Trial/Derby exacta was Tim Tam in 1958.
Looking at two stakes races from Keeneland today. First up is Race 8, the 5 1/2 furlong (turf) Giant's Causeway for fillies and mares 3 and up
This race is guaranteed to have a lot of pace with 4 need to lead types running. Therefore the logical choice will be an off the pace type and West Ocean, trained by Todd Pletcher, fits the bill perfectly. Winner by 5 lengths in the Bienville at the Fairgrounds last out the 4 yo filly has really awakened since cutting back to sprint distances. Statistic to note is rider JJ Castellano is winning at a 41% clip over the last 60 days when riding for Pletcher.
No turf sprint stakes would be complete without an entry or two from Linda Rice. She has 2 in this race each making their 2010 debuts. Ahvee's Destiny has been training at Palm Meadows in Florida and with speed sitting on the rail has to be considered dangerous. But the stronger of the two is Canadian Ballet who hasn't raced since her Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint effort. Canadian Ballet has also been training at the Florida training track. If the pace of this race didn't promise to be so torrid, this filly could easily be the top selection.
Third choice is Libor Lady. Toss her last on the main track at Santa Anita. This 5 year old mare is 7 for 11 at the distance and never out of the money. Again, only the pace keeps this one down from being a top choice.
In summary, the picks and odds needed to play.
7. West Ocean 2/1
8. Canadian Ballet 5/1
3 Libor Lady 7/1
The other race I'm covering today is the G2 Coolmore Lexington Stakes for three year olds
This race shapes up to be very competitive and a long price will be no surprise. However, I think I have been able to narrow the field down to the main contenders.
My top pick for the race is the horse breaking from pp1, Krypton. Krypton won a 7f allowance for non-winners of one other than last out in decisive fashion. Since there are no real giant killers in this race, only 1 previous G3 winner, I am not overly concerned about the lack of stakes experience here. Key stats for Kypton: Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is 25% with a positive ROI going sprint to route and the Alan Garcia/McLaughlin combination is 38% with a positive ROI over the last 60 days.
Second choice Lonesome Street comes out of a 2nd place effort in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park. The comment line shows some trouble at 7/8th. Key for Lonesome Street is the positive jockey switch to Julien Leparoux. Stats of note: Trainer Michael Maker is 30% on all-weather surfaces (+ROI) and 28% when his horses are running routes (+ROI).
The 3rd choice is the lone speed horse in the race Exhi trained by Todd Pletcher. Exhi is the winner of the Rushaway Stakes and is a sure bet to be leading at the 1/4 and 1/2 poles. The question is whether or not the others will be able to reel him in. Last time out, Lonesome Street could not make up the ground. This time may be different, or, it may not.
Summary and needed odds
1 Krypton 3/1
7 Lonesome Street 9/2
8 Exhi 5/1
Hey be sure to check out the other bloggers of the TBA. We've made it easy for you with the links on the side of the page.
And while you're there, visit the TBA facebook page as well.
Saturday, April 10, 2010
Last Chance For Some Derby Hopefuls
Going into the what is realistically the last chance for some Derby hopefuls to gain the coveted graded stakes earnings they need to gain entry into the Kentucky Derby. For today, the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn will be the big draws.
First up to Lexington, Ky for the Bluegrass Stakes. The race shapes up as one of those types where we are absent the presence of any confirmed lead horses.
The 2 horse, First Dude, is the only contender with a Quirin figure suggesting a front running style (E6). However, never in his 5 career races has First Dude been on the lead in the first 2 calls.
This is important because much of the discussion this week has involved Florida Derby runner-up Pleasant Prince. But the Florida Derby had 4 of 11 entries with early speed Quirin designations. I figured the race was set up for an off the pace type which is why Pleasant Prince, at 29/1, was my top selection (It still hurts). Eventual winner, Ice Box, came from dead last to nip Pleasant Prince at the wire, so they say. Going into the race Ice Box had an Early Presser (EP) Quirin figure, but he ran an "S" style (closer) race on that day.
The whole point is that the Bluegrass Stakes sets up in such a manner that it is going to make winning much more difficult for off the pace running styles to win today. I like Pleasant Prince and consider him a solid contender, but am looking elsewhere for a top contender.
To find that contender I have to look no farther than Post Position #1 for the G3 Tampa Derby winner Odysseus. Odysseus has shown the tactical ability to run near the lead and I think that is what will be required to win the race. Odysseus also showed alot of heart in his Tampa win to come back and get Schoolyard Dreams and Super Saver at the wire.
Pleasant Prince also showed some ability to stay near a quick pace in the Florida Derby, and his nip and tuck duel down the stretch with Ice Box showed that he will not wilt under pressure. If he can stay close to the leaders today, he may yet find his way to the Winner's Circle and is my second choice in the race.
For a third selection, I'm looking for a potential longshot to pull off the upset. #7 Paddy O Prado moves to the main track after running his last 4 on grass including a win in the G3 Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park. His Quirin figure is (S3) indicating the closing style so typical of turf runners, but he was never more than half a length off the leader at the calls in his Palm Beach win. Paddy is also flattered by Dean's Kitten who finished 2nd in the Palm Beach and went on to win the G2 Lanes End at Turfway next out. Paddy has Kent Desormeaux riding him today. Kent started off the Gulfstream meet slowly but has been picking it up lately and has been a hot jockey recently. I look for Paddy to give a good account of himself today and if the top two picks falter he may be there to pick up the pieces and the win.
In summary, the picks and the odds I need to play them
#1 Odysseus 3-1
#6 Pleasant Prince 4-1
#7 Paddy O' Prado 7-1
The Arkansas Derby shapes up differently from the Bluegrass with 3 of the 9 contenders sporting early running preferences. The morning line favorite Super Saver sits on the rail and has Calvin Bo-rail riding him. He looks to be the best of the bunch who will contend for the lead at the first call. However, it is the leader at the final call the matters. I don't expect the Morning Line favorite to be the first to cross under the wire.
Of the "P" (presser) types, only Dublin appears to have the credentials to find the wire first, but a look at the comment lines tells me he may not be the choice. The comment lines are full of "weakened, "4w", "no response", "Drifted wide no bid", "Stumbled, wide no bid". You get my point. Also. a look at his last effort in the G2 Rebel shows the horse to be really gassed in the final 16th.
This leaves for us the Early Presser's (EP). Of these, Noble's Promise seems the most promising. Nobles's Promise has been racing against much better and even though this is a Grade 1 event, I get the feeling you can almost claim a little bit of class relief for the son of Cuvee. His pedigree suggests the classic distance may be too much for him, but he has shown he can handle 9 furlongs. I expect him to win today.
Of course it is a horse race, so you need a plan b and a plan c. The second choice is Northern Giant. This son of Giant's Causeway has the look of a 3 year old that may be peaking at just the right time. Northern Giant has place and show finishes in his last two Grade 2 outings and does not need to move forward much here to take the top prize.
Finally for the third contender we are going to take Uh Oh Bango. Uh Oh gets a positive rider switch to Sean Bridgmohan and is coming 2nd off the layoff. Look for him to improve upon his 3YO debut into the Rebel where he finished 4th. Uh Oh ran just off the pace for the first two calls before tiring to a 4th place finish. Given a tough assignment in his first back since December, the race should have done him some good, and he gets the prize as most likely to improve. If he lives up to that promise he may be most likely to finish first.
The contenders and required odds to play are as follows
#3 Noble's Promise 2-1
#4 Northern Giant 5-1
#5 Uh Oh Bango 7-1
For other opinions, be sure to visit the TBA home page http://www.tbablogs.com/. The information used to make these selections was obtained, in part, from Brisnet Ultimate Past Performance which can be obtained gratis from the TBA home page.
I'm Off!
First up to Lexington, Ky for the Bluegrass Stakes. The race shapes up as one of those types where we are absent the presence of any confirmed lead horses.
The 2 horse, First Dude, is the only contender with a Quirin figure suggesting a front running style (E6). However, never in his 5 career races has First Dude been on the lead in the first 2 calls.
This is important because much of the discussion this week has involved Florida Derby runner-up Pleasant Prince. But the Florida Derby had 4 of 11 entries with early speed Quirin designations. I figured the race was set up for an off the pace type which is why Pleasant Prince, at 29/1, was my top selection (It still hurts). Eventual winner, Ice Box, came from dead last to nip Pleasant Prince at the wire, so they say. Going into the race Ice Box had an Early Presser (EP) Quirin figure, but he ran an "S" style (closer) race on that day.
The whole point is that the Bluegrass Stakes sets up in such a manner that it is going to make winning much more difficult for off the pace running styles to win today. I like Pleasant Prince and consider him a solid contender, but am looking elsewhere for a top contender.
To find that contender I have to look no farther than Post Position #1 for the G3 Tampa Derby winner Odysseus. Odysseus has shown the tactical ability to run near the lead and I think that is what will be required to win the race. Odysseus also showed alot of heart in his Tampa win to come back and get Schoolyard Dreams and Super Saver at the wire.
Pleasant Prince also showed some ability to stay near a quick pace in the Florida Derby, and his nip and tuck duel down the stretch with Ice Box showed that he will not wilt under pressure. If he can stay close to the leaders today, he may yet find his way to the Winner's Circle and is my second choice in the race.
For a third selection, I'm looking for a potential longshot to pull off the upset. #7 Paddy O Prado moves to the main track after running his last 4 on grass including a win in the G3 Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park. His Quirin figure is (S3) indicating the closing style so typical of turf runners, but he was never more than half a length off the leader at the calls in his Palm Beach win. Paddy is also flattered by Dean's Kitten who finished 2nd in the Palm Beach and went on to win the G2 Lanes End at Turfway next out. Paddy has Kent Desormeaux riding him today. Kent started off the Gulfstream meet slowly but has been picking it up lately and has been a hot jockey recently. I look for Paddy to give a good account of himself today and if the top two picks falter he may be there to pick up the pieces and the win.
In summary, the picks and the odds I need to play them
#1 Odysseus 3-1
#6 Pleasant Prince 4-1
#7 Paddy O' Prado 7-1
The Arkansas Derby shapes up differently from the Bluegrass with 3 of the 9 contenders sporting early running preferences. The morning line favorite Super Saver sits on the rail and has Calvin Bo-rail riding him. He looks to be the best of the bunch who will contend for the lead at the first call. However, it is the leader at the final call the matters. I don't expect the Morning Line favorite to be the first to cross under the wire.
Of the "P" (presser) types, only Dublin appears to have the credentials to find the wire first, but a look at the comment lines tells me he may not be the choice. The comment lines are full of "weakened, "4w", "no response", "Drifted wide no bid", "Stumbled, wide no bid". You get my point. Also. a look at his last effort in the G2 Rebel shows the horse to be really gassed in the final 16th.
This leaves for us the Early Presser's (EP). Of these, Noble's Promise seems the most promising. Nobles's Promise has been racing against much better and even though this is a Grade 1 event, I get the feeling you can almost claim a little bit of class relief for the son of Cuvee. His pedigree suggests the classic distance may be too much for him, but he has shown he can handle 9 furlongs. I expect him to win today.
Of course it is a horse race, so you need a plan b and a plan c. The second choice is Northern Giant. This son of Giant's Causeway has the look of a 3 year old that may be peaking at just the right time. Northern Giant has place and show finishes in his last two Grade 2 outings and does not need to move forward much here to take the top prize.
Finally for the third contender we are going to take Uh Oh Bango. Uh Oh gets a positive rider switch to Sean Bridgmohan and is coming 2nd off the layoff. Look for him to improve upon his 3YO debut into the Rebel where he finished 4th. Uh Oh ran just off the pace for the first two calls before tiring to a 4th place finish. Given a tough assignment in his first back since December, the race should have done him some good, and he gets the prize as most likely to improve. If he lives up to that promise he may be most likely to finish first.
The contenders and required odds to play are as follows
#3 Noble's Promise 2-1
#4 Northern Giant 5-1
#5 Uh Oh Bango 7-1
For other opinions, be sure to visit the TBA home page http://www.tbablogs.com/. The information used to make these selections was obtained, in part, from Brisnet Ultimate Past Performance which can be obtained gratis from the TBA home page.
I'm Off!
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Easter Sunday at Gulfstream Park
Have you ever noticed when watching a college football game, or even a high school game for that matter, the game can be totally entertaining even with the full realization that you are not watching the best athletes compete? That was feeling today at Gulfstream Park where there was not a single stakes race and the highest level race was an Allowance for non-winners of 3.
Yet, the racing was superbly competitive. Combine the racing with an excellent Easter Day brunch, the Weasel and his Mrs. had an excellent day at the races.
Today the Weasel played 7 of the 9 races on the card. Because we had a friend with us and it was a more social occassion than most trips to the track, I used a simple wagering strategy for all 7 races. 1 betting unit to win and 3 betting units on the same horse selected based on perceived value. This turned out to be an ingenious strategy on this day as the Weasel cashed on 5 of the 7 wagers laid, all place bets. Go figure.
As for yesterday's action. Eskendereya did all you could expect of him unless you are some kind of chronic skeptic. Why blame the horse for being so superior to his competition? Lookin At Lucky apparently disappointed Bob Baffert, from what I've read, but not the Weasel who warned you off this short priced Derby hopeful.
Both American Lion and Sidney's Candy were able to get easy early leads all the way to the wire punching their Derby tickets in the process. We'll see if they are allowed to set such easy fractions when the real honors of the "Greatest 2 minutes in sports" is upon them. Yawanna Twist impressed the Weasel in his 2nd place effort as did Jackson Bend who surprised me a little bit in holding place in the Wood. I still don't think he can win the Derby.
Totally whiffed on the Ashland as Beautician ran more like a Calder claimer in late September than a Breeder's Cup contender. That's racing for you.
Be sure to check out the other TBA blogs. You can find a list of them to the left of this article. You will get more free and valuable information about the KY Derby and racing in general for free than you could ever pay for from the so-called experts at DRF, Brisnet, or anywhere else you care to look. I've looked, I know.
That's all for now. Gotta go back to work. At least I have work to go back to, for now.
I'm Off
Yet, the racing was superbly competitive. Combine the racing with an excellent Easter Day brunch, the Weasel and his Mrs. had an excellent day at the races.
Today the Weasel played 7 of the 9 races on the card. Because we had a friend with us and it was a more social occassion than most trips to the track, I used a simple wagering strategy for all 7 races. 1 betting unit to win and 3 betting units on the same horse selected based on perceived value. This turned out to be an ingenious strategy on this day as the Weasel cashed on 5 of the 7 wagers laid, all place bets. Go figure.
As for yesterday's action. Eskendereya did all you could expect of him unless you are some kind of chronic skeptic. Why blame the horse for being so superior to his competition? Lookin At Lucky apparently disappointed Bob Baffert, from what I've read, but not the Weasel who warned you off this short priced Derby hopeful.
Both American Lion and Sidney's Candy were able to get easy early leads all the way to the wire punching their Derby tickets in the process. We'll see if they are allowed to set such easy fractions when the real honors of the "Greatest 2 minutes in sports" is upon them. Yawanna Twist impressed the Weasel in his 2nd place effort as did Jackson Bend who surprised me a little bit in holding place in the Wood. I still don't think he can win the Derby.
Totally whiffed on the Ashland as Beautician ran more like a Calder claimer in late September than a Breeder's Cup contender. That's racing for you.
Be sure to check out the other TBA blogs. You can find a list of them to the left of this article. You will get more free and valuable information about the KY Derby and racing in general for free than you could ever pay for from the so-called experts at DRF, Brisnet, or anywhere else you care to look. I've looked, I know.
That's all for now. Gotta go back to work. At least I have work to go back to, for now.
I'm Off
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Derby and Oaks Prep Races
Today is probably the last day for serious Kentucky Derby contenders and wannabes to prep for what remains the most important race for 3 year olds in North America if not the world.
I really wish I had some stunning upsets to predict, but I just can't see it happening. But the good news is, Brisnet's The Wizard would be charging you hard earned money for the same picks you will likely get here for free.
By the way, speaking of free. The information I used to make these selections was obtained from the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance page at http://www.tbablogs.com/. Be sure to pay them a visit. There are many great horse bloggers there and plenty of racing information and selections besides my own. Check them out
The first race is actually a prep for the Kentucky Oaks featuring 3 graduates from the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies. The G1 Ashland Stakes.
I think Beautician coming 2nd off the layoff for Kenneth McPeek out of the G3 Honeybee looks to be a strong contender after finishing 2nd in the aforementioned race. The comment line has Beautician boxed in at the 1/4 pole in the Honeybee. I look for her to move forward under Robby Albarado for this race.
However, Beautician will have to overcome the winner of the Juvenile Fillies, She Be Wild, if she wants to wear the Ashland crown. She Be Wild is trained by Wayne Catalano who has done just fine after getting out from under the thumb of Frank Calabrese. In fact, Catalano has won with 27% of last 37 graded stakes entries and is 37% with the beaten favorite the last 231 times this situation has occurred. With statistics like these and a strong horse under Jose Lezcano, there is no way to count She Be Wild out of the running.
She Be Wild's last race was the G2 Forward Gal on Jan. 31 at Gulfstream where she basically pulled a merry-go-round job in finishing 5th of 11. I'm sure Catalano will be looking for more this time around.
The other BC Filly Juvie grad is Negligee. Coming off a 4 month layoff I'm expecting this may be a conditioner and a true prep for the Oaks for Negligee. However, trainer Terranova is 16% off layoffs of greater than 90 days with a +ROI. Still I would look elsewhere here.
One horse that peeked my interest here as a possible long shot play is Protesting trained by Shug McGaughey. She did not show much in two allowance efforts at Gulfstream but the 95 Brisnet speed figure could but her right in the thick of it if she can duplicate or improve off that race and she does have win over the surface.
Still, I'm not going out on a limb here and will stick with and probably not play the chalk with
4 Beautician
5 She Be Wild
3 Negligee
The G3 Illinois Derby is easily the least prestigious of the 3 Derby preps the other two being the Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby, but it may be the most interesting of the three.
On a track that favors speed and the rail and a field which is generally lacking in flashy early speed, American Lion could not have drawn better breaking from the rail gate. But...I am looking for the combo of Prado and Dutrow on board the stalker Yawanna Twist to be first under the wire. A conviction which will grow even stronger should Awesome Act flatter the top choice 30 minutes earlier in the Wood.
Yawanna Twist has the best figures of all contenders. The fact is his worst lifetime figure is equal to the best of any other in the race excepting Backtalk. Twisty has the tactical ability to stay close to American Lion and possibly Boulder Creek.
American Lion has to be at least the 2nd choice with all the favoring factors the Weasel see's for him in this race. I expect to see him on the lead early, so he won't have to worry about having dirt kicked in his face.
Turf Melody will have to move forward out of the Gotham to beat Gotham runner up Yawanna Twist, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. Turf Melody looks to be a horse on the improve, and 3 year olds can make quantum leaps forward this time of year. You might be able to get a square price on this contender
Backtalk has the look of one of those horses who is fierce in the morning and a asleep when the money is on the line. He did win his last, but notice his figures decline as the distance increases. The Weasel would be surprised to see this one in the Winner's Circle.
4. Yawanna Twist
1. American Lion
5. Turf Melody
It is easy to look at the Wood and think it is a 2 horse race between Eskendereya and Awesome Act. But Ramon Dominquez has been red hot at the Big A and Schoolyard Dreams may have what it takes and the motivation to pull off the upset for trainer Derek Ryan.
Still, Eskendereya dominated the Fountain of Youth field and should have no problem stalking the cheap speed in the race. Gotham winner Awesome Act will bring up the rear early but will have plenty of pace to run at late. Look for Awesome Act to be chasing down either Eskendereya or Schoolyard Dreams in the stretch with one set of backers praying for the wire while the other set encourages Julien Leparoux to get into that 2 horse.
I have to mention Jackson Bend. He's a small horse with a large heart. I just don't think he can get the distance at this level and would like to see him returned to sprinting once the Derby dreams are finally dashed. The one classic race he may do well in is the Preakness due to the tight turns which can favor a smaller horse.
3. Eskendereya
2. Awesome Act
4. Schoolyard Dreams
At last there is the Santa Anita Derby. Lookin At Lucky is the obvious favorite, his race in the Rebel at Oaklawn was nothing short of amazing. If you missed it, find a replay to watch and you'll understand why Lucky is a top Derby contender. But listening to Bob Baffert in a recent interview, the Weasel has to wonder how well intentioned Lucky is for this race. Bob was all about how the goal was to get Lucky through the race in one piece and set up for the big prize being the KY Derby, of course.
This makes The Weasel want to take a shot at throwing Lucky out of the Winner's Circle and look for alternatives who may want it more here.
If we are going to upset Lucky, The Weasel actually likes two Cali breds to perform the feat. Up until the San Felipe, Caracortado was unbeaten in his career. Sidney's Candy won the race wire to wire. The comment line says Sidney was rated, meaning no pressure on the lead. This time may be different. Who's Up, to Sidney's inside has some early foot and could make Sidney work a little harder for that lead this time around.
Alphie's Bet made a quantum leap forward to win the G3 Sham last out and is another that would benefit from a contentious early pace. So here is the way The Weasel see's this one.
10 Alphie's Bet
6 Caracortado
4 Sidney's Candy
Lookin at Lucky will be there somewhere, maybe even on top. Don't be a chalk eating weasel.
The Weasel plans to watch these races at home courtesy of TVG, HRTV or Twinspires TV if I have to. Tomorrow will be a day at the races, grazing on the excellent buffet of the Ten Palms Restaurant at Gulfstream Park with the beautiful Mrs. Weasel.
Speaking of GP. Look for these jockeys to get hot now that the big guns have moved north. Paco Lopez, Joe Bravo (as long as he stays), Manoel Cruz, Luis Saez, Jose Lezcano, and, of course, Elvis Trujillo.
I'm Off!
I really wish I had some stunning upsets to predict, but I just can't see it happening. But the good news is, Brisnet's The Wizard would be charging you hard earned money for the same picks you will likely get here for free.
By the way, speaking of free. The information I used to make these selections was obtained from the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance page at http://www.tbablogs.com/. Be sure to pay them a visit. There are many great horse bloggers there and plenty of racing information and selections besides my own. Check them out
The first race is actually a prep for the Kentucky Oaks featuring 3 graduates from the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies. The G1 Ashland Stakes.
I think Beautician coming 2nd off the layoff for Kenneth McPeek out of the G3 Honeybee looks to be a strong contender after finishing 2nd in the aforementioned race. The comment line has Beautician boxed in at the 1/4 pole in the Honeybee. I look for her to move forward under Robby Albarado for this race.
However, Beautician will have to overcome the winner of the Juvenile Fillies, She Be Wild, if she wants to wear the Ashland crown. She Be Wild is trained by Wayne Catalano who has done just fine after getting out from under the thumb of Frank Calabrese. In fact, Catalano has won with 27% of last 37 graded stakes entries and is 37% with the beaten favorite the last 231 times this situation has occurred. With statistics like these and a strong horse under Jose Lezcano, there is no way to count She Be Wild out of the running.
She Be Wild's last race was the G2 Forward Gal on Jan. 31 at Gulfstream where she basically pulled a merry-go-round job in finishing 5th of 11. I'm sure Catalano will be looking for more this time around.
The other BC Filly Juvie grad is Negligee. Coming off a 4 month layoff I'm expecting this may be a conditioner and a true prep for the Oaks for Negligee. However, trainer Terranova is 16% off layoffs of greater than 90 days with a +ROI. Still I would look elsewhere here.
One horse that peeked my interest here as a possible long shot play is Protesting trained by Shug McGaughey. She did not show much in two allowance efforts at Gulfstream but the 95 Brisnet speed figure could but her right in the thick of it if she can duplicate or improve off that race and she does have win over the surface.
Still, I'm not going out on a limb here and will stick with and probably not play the chalk with
4 Beautician
5 She Be Wild
3 Negligee
The G3 Illinois Derby is easily the least prestigious of the 3 Derby preps the other two being the Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby, but it may be the most interesting of the three.
On a track that favors speed and the rail and a field which is generally lacking in flashy early speed, American Lion could not have drawn better breaking from the rail gate. But...I am looking for the combo of Prado and Dutrow on board the stalker Yawanna Twist to be first under the wire. A conviction which will grow even stronger should Awesome Act flatter the top choice 30 minutes earlier in the Wood.
Yawanna Twist has the best figures of all contenders. The fact is his worst lifetime figure is equal to the best of any other in the race excepting Backtalk. Twisty has the tactical ability to stay close to American Lion and possibly Boulder Creek.
American Lion has to be at least the 2nd choice with all the favoring factors the Weasel see's for him in this race. I expect to see him on the lead early, so he won't have to worry about having dirt kicked in his face.
Turf Melody will have to move forward out of the Gotham to beat Gotham runner up Yawanna Twist, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. Turf Melody looks to be a horse on the improve, and 3 year olds can make quantum leaps forward this time of year. You might be able to get a square price on this contender
Backtalk has the look of one of those horses who is fierce in the morning and a asleep when the money is on the line. He did win his last, but notice his figures decline as the distance increases. The Weasel would be surprised to see this one in the Winner's Circle.
4. Yawanna Twist
1. American Lion
5. Turf Melody
It is easy to look at the Wood and think it is a 2 horse race between Eskendereya and Awesome Act. But Ramon Dominquez has been red hot at the Big A and Schoolyard Dreams may have what it takes and the motivation to pull off the upset for trainer Derek Ryan.
Still, Eskendereya dominated the Fountain of Youth field and should have no problem stalking the cheap speed in the race. Gotham winner Awesome Act will bring up the rear early but will have plenty of pace to run at late. Look for Awesome Act to be chasing down either Eskendereya or Schoolyard Dreams in the stretch with one set of backers praying for the wire while the other set encourages Julien Leparoux to get into that 2 horse.
I have to mention Jackson Bend. He's a small horse with a large heart. I just don't think he can get the distance at this level and would like to see him returned to sprinting once the Derby dreams are finally dashed. The one classic race he may do well in is the Preakness due to the tight turns which can favor a smaller horse.
3. Eskendereya
2. Awesome Act
4. Schoolyard Dreams
At last there is the Santa Anita Derby. Lookin At Lucky is the obvious favorite, his race in the Rebel at Oaklawn was nothing short of amazing. If you missed it, find a replay to watch and you'll understand why Lucky is a top Derby contender. But listening to Bob Baffert in a recent interview, the Weasel has to wonder how well intentioned Lucky is for this race. Bob was all about how the goal was to get Lucky through the race in one piece and set up for the big prize being the KY Derby, of course.
This makes The Weasel want to take a shot at throwing Lucky out of the Winner's Circle and look for alternatives who may want it more here.
If we are going to upset Lucky, The Weasel actually likes two Cali breds to perform the feat. Up until the San Felipe, Caracortado was unbeaten in his career. Sidney's Candy won the race wire to wire. The comment line says Sidney was rated, meaning no pressure on the lead. This time may be different. Who's Up, to Sidney's inside has some early foot and could make Sidney work a little harder for that lead this time around.
Alphie's Bet made a quantum leap forward to win the G3 Sham last out and is another that would benefit from a contentious early pace. So here is the way The Weasel see's this one.
10 Alphie's Bet
6 Caracortado
4 Sidney's Candy
Lookin at Lucky will be there somewhere, maybe even on top. Don't be a chalk eating weasel.
The Weasel plans to watch these races at home courtesy of TVG, HRTV or Twinspires TV if I have to. Tomorrow will be a day at the races, grazing on the excellent buffet of the Ten Palms Restaurant at Gulfstream Park with the beautiful Mrs. Weasel.
Speaking of GP. Look for these jockeys to get hot now that the big guns have moved north. Paco Lopez, Joe Bravo (as long as he stays), Manoel Cruz, Luis Saez, Jose Lezcano, and, of course, Elvis Trujillo.
I'm Off!
Monday, March 29, 2010
I'm Back
So sorry to have been away so long. Could make up alot of excuses and they'd all be true. The simple fact is that the muse had left me. Now I'm feeling more a-mused.
As much as I like to complain about how Gulfstream Park management does everything on the cheap, and they do, I guess I have to give them a little credit for Florida Derby day.
Gulfsteam Park was slammed. They do not give attendance or handle figures, but in speaking with a worker at the track I learned the crowd was estimated to be about 23,000. Betting lines were 10 minutes long. I was told that the park had installed an extral 150 betting machines for the occassion. Again, trying to do it on the cheap. Really, how many people who go to the track once or twice a year for the big days go anywhere near the betting machines?
I prefer the machines, but on days like Fl. Derby day, there's no way. It will always be my luck to wind up behind some 0.10 cent super player entering every possible combo one at a time. Of course, most times that will be my good luck.
To the track's credit they did extend the time between races once they realized the size of the crowd which had showed up on that perfect South Florida day. One last thing I learned from the track worker is that there are plans to build a parking garage and extend the grandstand down the north side of the main building all the way down to the beginning of the stretch. It won't be this year or the next, but maybe in a couple of years, we can once again contemplate the possibility of the Breeder's Cup returning to Florida.
Had the muse had struck me sooner, my once loyal readers would've known my top pick for the race was the 29-1 Pleasant Prince. Yes it is true. Talk about bad beats! I figured the race had alot of early speed in it with most of it to the outside and didn't set up well for the favorite, Rule. I looked to the inside for likely horses to come from off the pace and settled on the Wesley Ward trained Pleasant Prince. Ice Box was certainly a contender as an off the pace contender, but it is well known that the outside posts don't do well at the 9 furlong distance. The 12 hole is nearly impossible except for Big Brown. Unfortunately for me, Ice Box was breaking from the 8th gate.
I have watched that race over and over and am still not convinced I lost. I'm still looking for the photo if anyone can direct me. That is the only way I will be convinced.
I have read that we (TBA that is) are now associating ourselves with Thorofan. This is a move the Weasel definitely is in favor of being a charter member of the Thorofan organization. So far, I can't see how my dues to Thorofan have done anything than help finance cocktail parties for the Saratoga chapter, but hope springs eternal that something good will eventually come out the organization.
The Horseplayer's Association of North America seems to have lost some momentum this year although I do remember they are having a day at Keeneland for members to assemble. If they send me another E-Mail telling me when it is, I'll let you know. That is an organization the Weasel certainly endorses. I hope the founders have not burned out. They tried very hard to make a difference last year. But you know, organizing horse player has got to be alot like herding cats.
That's it for now. Hopefully, I'll get some momentum of my own going and find another 18-1 Bullsbay or 29-1 Pleasant Prince for you to lay some dough on and cheer for.
I'm Off
As much as I like to complain about how Gulfstream Park management does everything on the cheap, and they do, I guess I have to give them a little credit for Florida Derby day.
Gulfsteam Park was slammed. They do not give attendance or handle figures, but in speaking with a worker at the track I learned the crowd was estimated to be about 23,000. Betting lines were 10 minutes long. I was told that the park had installed an extral 150 betting machines for the occassion. Again, trying to do it on the cheap. Really, how many people who go to the track once or twice a year for the big days go anywhere near the betting machines?
I prefer the machines, but on days like Fl. Derby day, there's no way. It will always be my luck to wind up behind some 0.10 cent super player entering every possible combo one at a time. Of course, most times that will be my good luck.
To the track's credit they did extend the time between races once they realized the size of the crowd which had showed up on that perfect South Florida day. One last thing I learned from the track worker is that there are plans to build a parking garage and extend the grandstand down the north side of the main building all the way down to the beginning of the stretch. It won't be this year or the next, but maybe in a couple of years, we can once again contemplate the possibility of the Breeder's Cup returning to Florida.
Had the muse had struck me sooner, my once loyal readers would've known my top pick for the race was the 29-1 Pleasant Prince. Yes it is true. Talk about bad beats! I figured the race had alot of early speed in it with most of it to the outside and didn't set up well for the favorite, Rule. I looked to the inside for likely horses to come from off the pace and settled on the Wesley Ward trained Pleasant Prince. Ice Box was certainly a contender as an off the pace contender, but it is well known that the outside posts don't do well at the 9 furlong distance. The 12 hole is nearly impossible except for Big Brown. Unfortunately for me, Ice Box was breaking from the 8th gate.
I have watched that race over and over and am still not convinced I lost. I'm still looking for the photo if anyone can direct me. That is the only way I will be convinced.
I have read that we (TBA that is) are now associating ourselves with Thorofan. This is a move the Weasel definitely is in favor of being a charter member of the Thorofan organization. So far, I can't see how my dues to Thorofan have done anything than help finance cocktail parties for the Saratoga chapter, but hope springs eternal that something good will eventually come out the organization.
The Horseplayer's Association of North America seems to have lost some momentum this year although I do remember they are having a day at Keeneland for members to assemble. If they send me another E-Mail telling me when it is, I'll let you know. That is an organization the Weasel certainly endorses. I hope the founders have not burned out. They tried very hard to make a difference last year. But you know, organizing horse player has got to be alot like herding cats.
That's it for now. Hopefully, I'll get some momentum of my own going and find another 18-1 Bullsbay or 29-1 Pleasant Prince for you to lay some dough on and cheer for.
I'm Off
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