Saturday, July 10, 2010

Summit of Speed, Part 2

Quickly back with the last 3 races of Calder's Summit of Speed.

The Carry Back Stakes, Race 9 on your program consists of D' Funnybone and 4 pretenders necessary to fill the race. D' Funnybone consistently runs 6f almost 2 seconds faster than any of the others. The only way to play this race is to use D' Funnybone as a single in your Pick 4

As I said this is just a quickie as I would like to take a look at todays Belmont Card before heading to the races.

For the G3 Azalea Stakes #5 Buckleupbuttercup turns back in distance and trainer Eddie Kenneally is 33% with the Route to Sprint maneuver. #8 Pica Slew blistered the track here in the Leave Me Alone Stakes on Pre-View day so look for another good showing from her. Finally Bronx City Girl is first of the claim for Marty Wolfson. Marty doesn't play the claiming game very often but he does it at a 78% success rate next out. Still #6BCG has not proven herself in any way in stakes competition and only merits 3rd choice.

Odds
#5 Buckleupbuttercup play at 2/1 or better
#8 Pica Slew play at 9/2 or better
#6 Bronx City Girl plat at 9/1 or better.

The 11th race, The Princess Rooney Handicap-G1, is a good contentious affair. Again there are 6 or maybe 7 that have legit chances here, but I have to settle on only 3 or in this case 4 contenders. #7 Dr. Zic is one who didn't make the cut although I wouldn't be surprised if she wires the field. #13 First Passage is a horse for the course, but I think her late closing running style combined with the far outside draw hurts her chances here. Still watch for the weather, a drying track at Calder can do funny things to the track profile, and for scratches which may move First Passage a few lanes closer to the rail.

The 4 I settled on are #8 Dubai Majesty, almost another horse for the course with 3 wins in 8 races coming out of a G3 win in the Winning Colors at Churchill Downs. #9 Warbling who is probably as good as if not better than Dubai Majesty, just don't know how she'll handle the track. #5 Mother Ruth who just has the look of a horse that has suddenly learned what its all about. and #4 Hour Glass who is 4 of 5 at the distance and comes of a G2 win at Belmont, Vagrancy Handicap.

Playable odds

#8 Dubai Majesty 9/2
#9 Warbling 5/1
#5 Mother Ruth 7/1
#4 Hour Glass 8/1

That's all today.

I'm gone

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Grade 2 Smile Sprint Handicap from Calder Race Course

On July 10 Calder Race Course (and casino) will be holding their annual Summit of Speed. This year I will bring some of my feelings on the races beginning today with Race 10 in your program, the Smile Sprint Handicap. As is my custom, I will be attending the races live and might even stray from the simulcast monitors long enough to go down and look at the horses if it's not raining. Look for me. I'll have on the sunglasses and the brown HANA (Horseplayers Association of North America) cap. Speaking of HANA. After this day is over, I am going to write an article regarding my take on the day and how well, or poorly Calder Race Course (and casino) handled what should be a large crowd and submit it to HANA for posting on their website.

The Smile Sprint looks to be an exciting race on paper. 13 are entered. Personally I'd like to see at least 5 of the entries scratched as I don't think they really belong in this race. Rusty Charlie was passed as if he was standing still when he faced of against Big Drama in what was certainly a tune up race for the latter 2 back. Trainer Francisco Machado then foolishly brought ol' Rusty back on 7 days rest for another overnight try in which Charlie failed miserably. give ol' Rusty a break because he doesn't belong with these.

Sincero, Gato Go Win, How's Your Halo, Causeway's Kin, Not For Silver, and Golden Spikes are the other non-contenders of which, with varying degrees of vehemence, I would like to see exit the race gracefully pre-post.

This still leaves us with a nice contentious race consisting of #2 Go Go Shoot trained by Pletcher with David Cohen on board. I don't recall ever seeing Cohen ride for Pletcher, but, according to Brisnet's Ultimate PP's he's done 15 times in the last 60 days and done it quite well with a 45% win rate. Go Go Shoot has some flashy speed and should set the pace or certainly be a major pace factor on a speed favoring track. But there is a lot of other speed in this race and horses like Rusty Charlie, Causeway's Kin or Taqarub may force him to go faster than he'd like early on. Go Go Shoot has run twice before on the Calder Course and has yet to show any particular liking for the surface. I think Saturday will be more or the same in that regard for Go Go Shoot.

#13 Snapshot is the other horse in this race I think could win but probably won't. If all 13 go in this race I see him getting hung out wide on the turn considering a fast early pace will make that turn come faster than someone from the far outside probably wants it to.

Now for the primary contenders. The interesting horse in this race is #3 Mambo Meister ridden by local perennial jockey leader Manoel Cruz and trained by Phillip Gleaves. Mambo Meister has 9 wins in 29 starts and I think nearly all of them have come on this track (you can check that if you want too). In any event, I do know that Mambo Meister is 6 for 9 at CRC and no rider knows this track better than Manny Cruz. Especially if it rains. What is interesting is that Mambo Meister has mostly been a router up to now. However the workout line shows 4 works since his last outing a 4 furlong and three 3 furlong works including a blistering 34 sec sprint on June 28. I don't usually pay much attention to workouts, but this caught my eye enough to make Mambo Meister the #4 contender at 6-1 odds, play him at 9-1 or better.

The #3 contender is #7 Taqarub trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and ridden by Edgar Prado. Winner of his last out on Preakness day at 13-1 and being recently flattered by Roaring Lion at Monmouth this 4 year old colt is 4 for 5 at the distance and 1 for 1 on off tracks which is something to pay attention to at CRC in the Summer time. Taqarub is 5-1 on my line play him at 8-1 or better

The co-#1 contender is #8 Congressional Page (Trombetta/Albarado). Congressional Page has never lost at this distance and is 2 for 2 on off tracks. Congressional Page is a pressing type with the tactical speed to stay close enough to catch the front runners. I think the race sets up for him from a pace stand point. Congressional Page burned up the track in his last out at Monmouth covering 6f in 1:09.4. I make CP co favorite at 3-1, play at 9/2 or better with #10 Big Drama.

#10 Big Drama (Fawkes/Coa) romped easily past ol' Rusty Charlie in a leisurely 1:10.6 in the Ponche Hdcp. I watched that race and note that he could've gone faster, he just didn't have to.
Big Drama is a G2 winner who just loves CRC and a definite horse for the course with 5 wins in 6 tries. As a 2 year old Big Drama dominated the Florida Stallion Stakes Series. Big Drama is 3 for 3 at this distance and along with being the horse for the course becomes my co-favorite at 3-1, play at 9/2 or better.

To some these odds may seem a little high and you don't want to sit out this race. Really though, there are 6 solid choices in this race that should take serious money. I feel pretty certain there will be an overlay to be found among these four, maybe even two. Hold out for a price because I think this race will be too tight to be eatin' any low-priced chalk.

Later