It looks to be a warm and muggy winter day here in South Florida today. There is a small chance of showers, but it looks as though the turf races will be run so far today.
Last week was definitely a big swing and miss. Not only did Nikki's Sandcastle win from the 14 post, actually 13 due to a scratch, but none of my contenders did any running to even give me a thrill for my money. In fact the entire weekend seemed to go that way for me. Today's another day so let's dive in and see what we can find to get some of those hard earned dollars back.
The Mr. Prospector is today's 5th race. I suspect the race was moved up to 5 so as not to pollute the Pick 5 and Pick 4 with a 6 horse field which would, no doubt, depress the handles in those fields. I have no unique insights into this race. Four of the six entrants in this race like to go to the lead early, so I suspect the race will set up for a stalker/closer type. This scenario puts me square on the #6 horse Indiano (8/5), who I expect will turn the tables on Action Andy (6/5). The value in the race may be the #5 Partyallnightlong (12/1) who should also benefit from hot early fractions. I suspect Action Andy may be due for an off race after three to efforts in a row and look for #1 Bull Dozer (6/1) to round out the trifecta.
The race I want to talk about is the 9th race at GP, a first level Allowance race for fillies and mares 3 and up. The race is 9 furlongs which is important because the field gets some extra distance before hitting the first turn. This should benefit the #11 filly, morning line favorite, Riolama (5/2). Of course, if I thought Riolama were a sure thing here, I wouldn't be writing about this race.
Riolama has every right to win this race. She is a lightly raced 3 year old coming off a new top last out with every right to improve with 3 months rest.
Another contender is #2 High On Kitten (6/1). This filly must be a bit of a disappointment to Ken and Sarah Ramsey with only 2 wins in 20 outings. Still, she appears to be a good fit here with figure wise and Wesley Ward and Julio Garcia have been clicking together for a gaudy 28% win rate when teaming up. She has got to figure on your tickets.
I also like the #9 Marlin Mission (4/1) running for Dale Romans. She is another lightly raced 3 year old with competitive figures who is likely to improve and it could be today.
Finally, I arrive at the key horse for today's race #1 Sex Appeal (12/1). Sex Appeal has little more experience than some others in here as a 4 year old filly. She runs between 6 and 8 Thoro-Graph numbers which places her right in the thick of it if she runs her best. By comparison, the best race for the morning line favorite Riolama is a 8 (lower numbers are better). Granted Riolama has a greater right to improve, but with only 13 career races, it is possible Sex Appeal has not yet fired her best shot. In addition, she draws the more favorable inside post and figures to save some ground relative to here outside competitors. Today could be the day she breaks out that life time best and I am willing to take the chance at 12/1 or somewhere in that neighborhood.
In plain English. 1. Sex Appeal to win and key with 11 Riolama, 2 High On Kitten, and 9 Marlin Mission in the exotic pools.
Late P4 at GP (Races 7-10): 7,8,9,6/7,6,3,1/1,11,2,9/5,8,2
Late P4 at Tampa (Races 7-10): 4,8,7,1/8,9,7,2/5,7,3/7,5,6,1
Audentes Fortuna Juvat!
Saturday, December 29, 2012
Saturday, December 22, 2012
El Prado Stakes? Get Serious!
Today I'll take a peak at the El Prado Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The race drew a full field of 14 plus an Also Entered and promises to be a fun betting affair.
First for the infamous DRF Best bet the experts at the Form settled on 5. Salto (5-1) trained by Todd and ridden by J.J. I understand their enthusiasm to some degree. First, it is Pletcher at GP which has been money in the bank in recent years. Second, Castellano may be the best jock going on turf right now. Third, Salto's last two races at Keeneland certainly put him in the thick of things here.
But, you knew there would be a "but" coming now didn't you, both those races at Keeneland were run on the poly track. Whenever Salto has run on turf his numbers become a little more pedestrian. Unless, this 4 nearly 5 year old, has made some quantum leap in ability, unlikely at this point in his career in my opinion, expect him to run back to his previous pedestrian turf figures. Good news for us is that it is Pletcher at GP in a Saturday stakes race, so expect Salto to take more money than he should from the betting lemmings, er I mean public.
Another horse sure to draw some attention will be the 14 Nikki's Sandcastle (7/2). NS was the winner of the Claiming Crown Emerald Stakes last out on opening day of the GP meet. He is a member of a small, elite group of horses who are not owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey able to win a race that day.
On Dec. 1, NS broke from PP1. Today he will break from the unfortunate post 14. I don't have the exact numbers handy, but, trust me, post 14 at a mile on the turf course will be a tall order to fill.
So, after eliminating the DRF Best Bet and ML favorite, we are left with a wide open race to ponder.
In this race I narrowed my focus to 4 main contenders. The 10 Beaux Choix (6/1) is a capable turfer with figures making him a definite contender in this race. I think the 10 post is still a little difficult, if not as bad as the 14, so I have discounted his chances somewhat although he will be a factor on my Pick 4 tickets.
The second worthy of consideration is the 3 Get Serious (10/1). I have to admit that Get Serious is a personal favorite of mine so I may have a bit of bias with this one.
First for the infamous DRF Best bet the experts at the Form settled on 5. Salto (5-1) trained by Todd and ridden by J.J. I understand their enthusiasm to some degree. First, it is Pletcher at GP which has been money in the bank in recent years. Second, Castellano may be the best jock going on turf right now. Third, Salto's last two races at Keeneland certainly put him in the thick of things here.
But, you knew there would be a "but" coming now didn't you, both those races at Keeneland were run on the poly track. Whenever Salto has run on turf his numbers become a little more pedestrian. Unless, this 4 nearly 5 year old, has made some quantum leap in ability, unlikely at this point in his career in my opinion, expect him to run back to his previous pedestrian turf figures. Good news for us is that it is Pletcher at GP in a Saturday stakes race, so expect Salto to take more money than he should from the betting lemmings, er I mean public.
Another horse sure to draw some attention will be the 14 Nikki's Sandcastle (7/2). NS was the winner of the Claiming Crown Emerald Stakes last out on opening day of the GP meet. He is a member of a small, elite group of horses who are not owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey able to win a race that day.
On Dec. 1, NS broke from PP1. Today he will break from the unfortunate post 14. I don't have the exact numbers handy, but, trust me, post 14 at a mile on the turf course will be a tall order to fill.
So, after eliminating the DRF Best Bet and ML favorite, we are left with a wide open race to ponder.
In this race I narrowed my focus to 4 main contenders. The 10 Beaux Choix (6/1) is a capable turfer with figures making him a definite contender in this race. I think the 10 post is still a little difficult, if not as bad as the 14, so I have discounted his chances somewhat although he will be a factor on my Pick 4 tickets.
The second worthy of consideration is the 3 Get Serious (10/1). I have to admit that Get Serious is a personal favorite of mine so I may have a bit of bias with this one.
Here is a picture of my wife visiting with Get Serious and trainer John Forbes at his stall at Monmouth the day before the Haskell Stakes this year.
The 8 year old gelding has some plusses and minuses going for him in this race. On the plus side, he likes to run on firm turf, which he should get, he likes to run on the lead, which he should get, and I think jockey Elvis Trujillo may be a particularly good fit for Get Serious based on his ability to get horses wire to wire on the turf.
On the minus side, Get Serious has not been training seriously since leaving New Jersey with last Thursday's allowance sprint serving as a public workout. Also on the minus side is that the turf course has, thus far, not been particular kind to need to lead types like Get Serious.
I will be pleasantly surprised if he wins and will have him on my tickets, but I will go elsewhere for the key horse today.
Number 2 Teaks North (15/1) brings a ton of back class into this race. On the plus side, if he runs back to his 4 year old figures he will have a very good chance to win here. On the negative side he has been side lined for nearly 11 months. However, I am not a believer that these long layoffs are necessarily as bad as the old timers think they are. I think medications, therapies, and training techniques are much more advanced than they were even 10 years ago, and we all know about Richard Dutrow and medications, eh?
But finally, I need a horse to use as a key and the winner is, drum roll please, #6 Tune Me In (10/1). Tune Me In rounded into form in the G3 Cliff Hanger Stakes at Monmouth Park on September 1 beating both Salto and Get Serious and hasn't missed a beat since. I look for Tune Me In to continue his good form under new trainer Jane Cibelli. Cibelli wins at an 18% clip when running a horse for the first time and if we get 10/1 this will be a bargain. Look for Tune Me In to stalk Get Serious again and try to take over when the horse hit the stretch.
Final analysis, Tune Me In to win and keyed in the exotics with Teaks North, Get Serious, and Beaux Choix.
Pick 4 selections races 7-10 GP: 6,9,5,7/5,2, 4, 3(?)/6,2,3,10,14/1,4,8,6,9,11
Pick 4 selections races 2-5 at Fair Grounds: 11,4,2,1a/1,3/8,1,5/4,6,7
Unfortunately Fair Grounds polluted the late P4 with a race for 2 year old all of which with the exception of one have never raced before. Sheesh?
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
Saturday, December 15, 2012
Dania Beach-G3
Welcome back for another adventure in handicapping. First last week's business. At Gulfstream Park our key pick, the 6. Distinctive Lady was a late scratch upon the vet's recommendation. The scratch of the 6 made the race unappealing to me and I sat it out. I was correct in my suspicions regarding Ju Ju Eyeballs who finished in obscurity somewhere.
As for my Fair Grounds Selection, you will recall I went to the 6th race there also. The race was a maiden race for 2 year old La. breds. The key horse, 9 Shanghai Princess was 8-1 in the ML and, as feared the combo of Calhoun and Napravnik drove the price down to 7-2 making her playable, but less attractive. Unfortunately, our princess never really fired and finished 6th in a field of 11. Fortunately, the consolation exacta with I Jus Wanna Hav Fun and Nola Girl paid $42.80 and the Tri which included first time starter selection Mischevious Mama paid $331.00 dollars which just goes to show there is more than one way to skin a race.
This week at Gulfstream they are running the Grade 3 Dania Beach for two year old turfers. I think this 10 horse field looks to be quite contentious and there may be an opportunity here to catch a price. The Morning Line favorite is Charming Kitten at 3-1. I think the price may go lower as the Pletcher/Velazquez combination is very powerful in the minds of the betting public.
Fortunately, the betting public does not dig much beyond name recognition and consider things like post position. The 10 post on the 1M grass course is not impossible but is still an obstacle to over come in a field that seems to be loaded with 2 yo talent, I am certainly not going to key what will likely be an underlaid colt with a compromising post position. That being said, she will be used in the Pick 4 and vertical exotics, but I'm looking elsewhere for the key.
In this race I settled on the 3 horse Itsmyluckyday (5-1). Itsmyluckyday ran well at Monmouth in early August in his only grass try. Since then he has won two stakes tries at Calder. Trainer Eddie Plesa states in a DRF interview that the Delta Downs effort should be discounted as Itsmyluckyday never really took to the track and I'm inclined to agree with him especially since even in that losing effort he ran a dirt figure which, if carried over to turf, could win in today's race. Hopefully, the prescence of Pletcher/Velazquez and an otherwise contentious field will help to keep this one's odds up around the ML.
Other horses to use in the vertical exotics include #7 Hard to Name (10-1) trained by John Servis and ridden by Joe Bravo. Hard to Name is the winner of his last two outings. The colt is sired by Hard Spun so the distance should not be an issue. If he takes to the surface, he has shown the ability to compete in this field. The other horse I would want to use is #4 Newfound Zapper (8-1). He broke his maiden last out on grass at this distance for Wesley Ward in October at Churchill. A move forward by this colt puts him in the hunt and opens the possibility for large payouts should these prices prevail at post time.
Bottom line Dania Beach Key the #3 with #10, #7, and #4 in the verticals and use the 3 and 10 horses as "A" horses for your Pick 4 tix.
I think that is all the heavy analysis I am going to give you this week. At NOLA (I think this is the now the trendy way of referring to New Orleans) in the Tenacious (R10) I like the 2 Hurrican Ike over the 1 It Happened Again, 3 Worldly and the 3-1 ML favorite 5 Apart.
Late Pick 4 at GP (races 7-10)-- 2,12,6,10/8,3,6,10/3,4,6,7,10/3,4,5,7
Late Pick 4 at FG (races 8-11)-- 2,5,6,9/1,3,6,7/2,1,3,5/2,1,4,10
Again I do not recommend you go cave man with these P4's as the cost can become prohibitive. I strongly urge you to use the DRF ticketmaker. It is free and a great tool for constructing smart multi race wagers.
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
As for my Fair Grounds Selection, you will recall I went to the 6th race there also. The race was a maiden race for 2 year old La. breds. The key horse, 9 Shanghai Princess was 8-1 in the ML and, as feared the combo of Calhoun and Napravnik drove the price down to 7-2 making her playable, but less attractive. Unfortunately, our princess never really fired and finished 6th in a field of 11. Fortunately, the consolation exacta with I Jus Wanna Hav Fun and Nola Girl paid $42.80 and the Tri which included first time starter selection Mischevious Mama paid $331.00 dollars which just goes to show there is more than one way to skin a race.
This week at Gulfstream they are running the Grade 3 Dania Beach for two year old turfers. I think this 10 horse field looks to be quite contentious and there may be an opportunity here to catch a price. The Morning Line favorite is Charming Kitten at 3-1. I think the price may go lower as the Pletcher/Velazquez combination is very powerful in the minds of the betting public.
Fortunately, the betting public does not dig much beyond name recognition and consider things like post position. The 10 post on the 1M grass course is not impossible but is still an obstacle to over come in a field that seems to be loaded with 2 yo talent, I am certainly not going to key what will likely be an underlaid colt with a compromising post position. That being said, she will be used in the Pick 4 and vertical exotics, but I'm looking elsewhere for the key.
In this race I settled on the 3 horse Itsmyluckyday (5-1). Itsmyluckyday ran well at Monmouth in early August in his only grass try. Since then he has won two stakes tries at Calder. Trainer Eddie Plesa states in a DRF interview that the Delta Downs effort should be discounted as Itsmyluckyday never really took to the track and I'm inclined to agree with him especially since even in that losing effort he ran a dirt figure which, if carried over to turf, could win in today's race. Hopefully, the prescence of Pletcher/Velazquez and an otherwise contentious field will help to keep this one's odds up around the ML.
Other horses to use in the vertical exotics include #7 Hard to Name (10-1) trained by John Servis and ridden by Joe Bravo. Hard to Name is the winner of his last two outings. The colt is sired by Hard Spun so the distance should not be an issue. If he takes to the surface, he has shown the ability to compete in this field. The other horse I would want to use is #4 Newfound Zapper (8-1). He broke his maiden last out on grass at this distance for Wesley Ward in October at Churchill. A move forward by this colt puts him in the hunt and opens the possibility for large payouts should these prices prevail at post time.
Bottom line Dania Beach Key the #3 with #10, #7, and #4 in the verticals and use the 3 and 10 horses as "A" horses for your Pick 4 tix.
I think that is all the heavy analysis I am going to give you this week. At NOLA (I think this is the now the trendy way of referring to New Orleans) in the Tenacious (R10) I like the 2 Hurrican Ike over the 1 It Happened Again, 3 Worldly and the 3-1 ML favorite 5 Apart.
Late Pick 4 at GP (races 7-10)-- 2,12,6,10/8,3,6,10/3,4,6,7,10/3,4,5,7
Late Pick 4 at FG (races 8-11)-- 2,5,6,9/1,3,6,7/2,1,3,5/2,1,4,10
Again I do not recommend you go cave man with these P4's as the cost can become prohibitive. I strongly urge you to use the DRF ticketmaker. It is free and a great tool for constructing smart multi race wagers.
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
Saturday, December 8, 2012
Louisianna Champions Day at the Fair Grounds
Coming back after what was a brilliant Claiming Crown Championship day put on at Gulfstream Park. I personally congratulate GP on getting and pulling off those races in exemplary form. Last Saturday was a tough act to follow, so it is natural to feel a little let down about today's card at GP. The feature race is the G3 Sugar Swirl which drew the Breeders' Cup Fillies and Mares Sprint runner up Dust and Diamonds. Looks to be the one to beat here and I will not try to beat her. Unfortunately, her prescence will pollute the Pick 4 as everyone will be using her, as will I, as a single.
Going through today's GP card I found myself landing on a lot of Morning Line favorites which is never a good thing. I do think in the first race, a 15k claimer for 2yo fillies, there may be a chance to take a stand against a filly that rates to get a lot of betting action from the public, the #4 Ju Ju Eyeballs. It will be interesting to watch the tote board on this one and see if she gets any early money from the barn. What makes her interesting is she won her 2nd Maiden race at Monmouth on June 1, ran 4th of 7 in the My Dear Stakes for 150K at Woodbine on June 24, then was put on the shelf until now only to be dropped into a relatively low level claiming race. If Ju Ju Eyeballs runs back to her early form she crushes the field, end of story. However, I think the Wesley Ward barn must have given up on her for a reason. She may still have enough in the tank to beat this field, but I think there is enough reason to look elsewhere.
#6 Distinction Lady A (6-1) already has 2 wins under belt and looks set up to make a forward move off of her last race. I will use her as the key horse in the race. #8 Heir To A Slew (8-1) made a little improvement in her last outing. The kind of improvement which suggests to me she is beginning to get the idea of racing. This will be h,er first try against winners but I think she merits a spot on the exotic tickets. #7 Viva's Party Girl (4-1) is another Ward entry. She won at first asking on June 1 in maiden claimer at Churchill. She's been off since then, but you can make the case that she is likely to have improved with time and maturity from 6 months prior, and, unlike Ju Ju Eyeballs, you can't say that they are placing her in this race because they have given up on her. This race is the type she belongs in.
There you have it. I will key the 6 with the 7 and 8 in the exacta pool as well as put something to win on her. I will also hedge a little bit with Ju Ju Eyeballs on top of 6,7, and 8 just in case. If I can keep the ML favorite out of the exacta the payoff should be pretty nice. If Ju Ju runs back to previous form, I should, at least, recapture some of my investment.
P4's P5's and P6's for today's GP Card (note the preferred choice is listed first, after that...)
P4 Starting R2: 1,5,6/9,3,4,8/1,3,7/2,4,6,7
P6 Starting R5: 2,4,6,7/10,4,5/5,1,3/3,1,4,6,10,11/6/6,8,11
P5 Starting R6: 10,4,5/5,1,3/3,1,4,6,10,11/6/6,8,11
P4 Starting R7: 5,1,3/3,1,4,6,10,11/6/6,8,11
If you play cave man style, you don't need my advice. If you use the DRF Ticket Formulator, In Race 6 I will use the 2,4,7 as "A" horses and In Race 8 I will use the 1 and 3 as "A" horses. All others are "B". Note that I will single the 6 Dust and Diamonds in the 9th so everything will hinge on her.
At Fair Grounds it is Louisianna Champions Day set aside for La. Breds. Such days always bring surprises and I'm sure today will be no different. But, I think the best spot opportunity may come in a Maiden race for La. bred 2 yo fillies in race 6.
#9 Shanghai Princess (8/1) is trained by Bret Calhoun and ridden by Rosie Napravnik, so I was a little surprised the line maker made her 8/1. I will be just as surprised to see this ML price hold up. I expect she may wind up the 2nd choice and maybe favored when all is said and done. But, if she can stay up around the 9-2 or 5-1 area, we may have a tasty little overlay here. Key the 9 with the tepid ML favorite #11 Nola Girl. I think these two are probably a wash as far as ability, so if Rosie's horse gets too over bet, she will be over bet, flip the 11 and the 9 in your wagering plans. I am also intrigued by a couple of firsters here. The #1 Mischievous Mama (8/1) runs for Wesley Hawley and looks like a good play statistically speaking. She is by Into Mischief whose first timer have won at a very nice 21% rate with a 16% win rate for 2yo's. If that is not enough Hawley wins 24% of the time with first time 2 year olds meaning he brings them to the track ready to run. If that is not enough, Hawley and Miguel Mena when teamed up win 24% of the time. Gee maybe I'll use the 1 filly as my Key. Something to consider if the 9 and 11 take to much action. Round out the superfecta will be the #3 I Jus Wana Hav Fun (9/2) who finished 2nd against similar last out on this track.
P4's and P5's for Fair Grounds
P4 Starting Race 5: 9,3,6,7/ 9.1,3,11/3,5/1,3
P5 Starting Race 9: 2,6,8,9/2,5,7,8/3,1,7,11/7/4,10,11
P4 Starting Race 10: 2,5,7,8/3,1,7,11/7/4,10,11
For the P5 and late P4 the #7 Speedacious will be used as a single. He looks that much better than the rest to me which makes the P5 a little more affordable.
Audentes Fortuna Juvat!
Going through today's GP card I found myself landing on a lot of Morning Line favorites which is never a good thing. I do think in the first race, a 15k claimer for 2yo fillies, there may be a chance to take a stand against a filly that rates to get a lot of betting action from the public, the #4 Ju Ju Eyeballs. It will be interesting to watch the tote board on this one and see if she gets any early money from the barn. What makes her interesting is she won her 2nd Maiden race at Monmouth on June 1, ran 4th of 7 in the My Dear Stakes for 150K at Woodbine on June 24, then was put on the shelf until now only to be dropped into a relatively low level claiming race. If Ju Ju Eyeballs runs back to her early form she crushes the field, end of story. However, I think the Wesley Ward barn must have given up on her for a reason. She may still have enough in the tank to beat this field, but I think there is enough reason to look elsewhere.
#6 Distinction Lady A (6-1) already has 2 wins under belt and looks set up to make a forward move off of her last race. I will use her as the key horse in the race. #8 Heir To A Slew (8-1) made a little improvement in her last outing. The kind of improvement which suggests to me she is beginning to get the idea of racing. This will be h,er first try against winners but I think she merits a spot on the exotic tickets. #7 Viva's Party Girl (4-1) is another Ward entry. She won at first asking on June 1 in maiden claimer at Churchill. She's been off since then, but you can make the case that she is likely to have improved with time and maturity from 6 months prior, and, unlike Ju Ju Eyeballs, you can't say that they are placing her in this race because they have given up on her. This race is the type she belongs in.
There you have it. I will key the 6 with the 7 and 8 in the exacta pool as well as put something to win on her. I will also hedge a little bit with Ju Ju Eyeballs on top of 6,7, and 8 just in case. If I can keep the ML favorite out of the exacta the payoff should be pretty nice. If Ju Ju runs back to previous form, I should, at least, recapture some of my investment.
P4's P5's and P6's for today's GP Card (note the preferred choice is listed first, after that...)
P4 Starting R2: 1,5,6/9,3,4,8/1,3,7/2,4,6,7
P6 Starting R5: 2,4,6,7/10,4,5/5,1,3/3,1,4,6,10,11/6/6,8,11
P5 Starting R6: 10,4,5/5,1,3/3,1,4,6,10,11/6/6,8,11
P4 Starting R7: 5,1,3/3,1,4,6,10,11/6/6,8,11
If you play cave man style, you don't need my advice. If you use the DRF Ticket Formulator, In Race 6 I will use the 2,4,7 as "A" horses and In Race 8 I will use the 1 and 3 as "A" horses. All others are "B". Note that I will single the 6 Dust and Diamonds in the 9th so everything will hinge on her.
At Fair Grounds it is Louisianna Champions Day set aside for La. Breds. Such days always bring surprises and I'm sure today will be no different. But, I think the best spot opportunity may come in a Maiden race for La. bred 2 yo fillies in race 6.
#9 Shanghai Princess (8/1) is trained by Bret Calhoun and ridden by Rosie Napravnik, so I was a little surprised the line maker made her 8/1. I will be just as surprised to see this ML price hold up. I expect she may wind up the 2nd choice and maybe favored when all is said and done. But, if she can stay up around the 9-2 or 5-1 area, we may have a tasty little overlay here. Key the 9 with the tepid ML favorite #11 Nola Girl. I think these two are probably a wash as far as ability, so if Rosie's horse gets too over bet, she will be over bet, flip the 11 and the 9 in your wagering plans. I am also intrigued by a couple of firsters here. The #1 Mischievous Mama (8/1) runs for Wesley Hawley and looks like a good play statistically speaking. She is by Into Mischief whose first timer have won at a very nice 21% rate with a 16% win rate for 2yo's. If that is not enough Hawley wins 24% of the time with first time 2 year olds meaning he brings them to the track ready to run. If that is not enough, Hawley and Miguel Mena when teamed up win 24% of the time. Gee maybe I'll use the 1 filly as my Key. Something to consider if the 9 and 11 take to much action. Round out the superfecta will be the #3 I Jus Wana Hav Fun (9/2) who finished 2nd against similar last out on this track.
P4's and P5's for Fair Grounds
P4 Starting Race 5: 9,3,6,7/ 9.1,3,11/3,5/1,3
P5 Starting Race 9: 2,6,8,9/2,5,7,8/3,1,7,11/7/4,10,11
P4 Starting Race 10: 2,5,7,8/3,1,7,11/7/4,10,11
For the P5 and late P4 the #7 Speedacious will be used as a single. He looks that much better than the rest to me which makes the P5 a little more affordable.
Audentes Fortuna Juvat!
Saturday, December 1, 2012
Success On Opening Day at GP
Let's get to the race of the day the Claiming Crown Rapid Transit. The 6th race on the Gulfstream Card. As you know I settled on the 5 horse Off The Jak who was 10-1 in the morning line. For a large part of the betting leading up to the race, it looked as if the 10-1 would hold. A lot of late money finally came in on Off The Jak and we went off at still acceptable 7-1.
Off The Jak got off well and assumed his customary postion as the race leader. So far, so good as this is where he likes to run. All the while, he was being pressed by another Chalk Eating Weasel contender Won Fast Bullet. Bernie The Maestro assumed the role of stalker sitting in the cat bird seat and tracking the two leaders. So far everything is going to plan.
What about Peb Hughes, the intrepid and observant reader may ask. Well I was right about that bogus 6-1 morning line as PH went off as the 9-5 favorite. I was also right about the DRF "best bet" kiss of death. I don't know about you, but my idea of a "best bet" is not a 4-5 favorite that anyone with just a passing acquaintance with a racing form can and will come with. I have found that the DRF best bets almost come to the level of tosses. I don't go that far because sometimes even 4-5 favorites do win, but many times they do not.
As they came around the turn, Bernie made his move which proved to be too much for Won Fast Bullet who was unable to provide much resistance at this point. Off The Jak did not go down without a fight, but it was clear that the day was going to belong to Bernie the Maestro.
The Bernie the Maestro-Off The Jak exacta payed a cozy 59.20. Won Fast Bullet was able to stay on for the show and the Trifecta if you went that deep into the pick paid 133.30 for a mere one dollar bill. Not bad work if I do say so myself.
Later that day I managed to hit, oh, dare I say it, the Pick 4 paying $1765.05. In both race 8 and race 10, horses I intended to use were scratched and I had to make last minute substitutions to replace the absent runners. That is why you have to follow me on twitter @cobb42 as I Tweeted my final P4 sequence once the scratches were accounted for.
These happened to be fortuitous substitutions as both came home first to complete the four race sequence. That and a being on the right side of a sphincter tightening photo brought home the bacon. Fortuna smiled upon the weasel.
Off The Jak got off well and assumed his customary postion as the race leader. So far, so good as this is where he likes to run. All the while, he was being pressed by another Chalk Eating Weasel contender Won Fast Bullet. Bernie The Maestro assumed the role of stalker sitting in the cat bird seat and tracking the two leaders. So far everything is going to plan.
What about Peb Hughes, the intrepid and observant reader may ask. Well I was right about that bogus 6-1 morning line as PH went off as the 9-5 favorite. I was also right about the DRF "best bet" kiss of death. I don't know about you, but my idea of a "best bet" is not a 4-5 favorite that anyone with just a passing acquaintance with a racing form can and will come with. I have found that the DRF best bets almost come to the level of tosses. I don't go that far because sometimes even 4-5 favorites do win, but many times they do not.
As they came around the turn, Bernie made his move which proved to be too much for Won Fast Bullet who was unable to provide much resistance at this point. Off The Jak did not go down without a fight, but it was clear that the day was going to belong to Bernie the Maestro.
The Bernie the Maestro-Off The Jak exacta payed a cozy 59.20. Won Fast Bullet was able to stay on for the show and the Trifecta if you went that deep into the pick paid 133.30 for a mere one dollar bill. Not bad work if I do say so myself.
Later that day I managed to hit, oh, dare I say it, the Pick 4 paying $1765.05. In both race 8 and race 10, horses I intended to use were scratched and I had to make last minute substitutions to replace the absent runners. That is why you have to follow me on twitter @cobb42 as I Tweeted my final P4 sequence once the scratches were accounted for.
These happened to be fortuitous substitutions as both came home first to complete the four race sequence. That and a being on the right side of a sphincter tightening photo brought home the bacon. Fortuna smiled upon the weasel.
addendum The late P4 at GP for those who may care
R7 #12, 13, 6, 5
R8#14, 3, 1 I think there is a chance for a big upset in this race
R9# 1, 3, 5
R10# 1, 3, 2, 8.
I haven't seen the scratches yet and a few of these are cross-entered so may be scratched.
R8#14, 3, 1 I think there is a chance for a big upset in this race
R9# 1, 3, 5
R10# 1, 3, 2, 8.
I haven't seen the scratches yet and a few of these are cross-entered so may be scratched.
Claiming Crown at Gulfstream Park
Time is of the essence, so I will dispense with the flowery prose.
The Claiming Crown races at GP will offer many good betting opportunities. The one that jumps off the Thoro-Graph sheets to me is the 6th race, the Rapid Transit. The morning line Favorite is the 2, Coosada (7/2). Coosada is a one run closer with no early speed. These types do not win very often on GP's main track. Instead I want to focus on Off The Jak (10/1). Off The Jak may be the lone speed in the race and has the conditioning benefit of having raced over Calder's tiring race course. Off The Jak's sheet figures, discounting the last race where he had to contend for the lead in a Fl. Bred Stakes race, are competitive with the other major contenders here. The connections of trainer Shivananda Parbhoo and jockey Jose Alvarez are capable and not likely to draw betting attention as will some of the bigger name trainers in the race.
Also contending in this race will be Peb Hughes (6/1). Because this horse is trained by Richard Dutrow and will be ridden by Javier Castellano, it has gotten a lot of DRF attention and is in fact their best bet. Peb Hughes is capable of winning here, but if you think you will get 6/1 after the DRF kiss of death, you're smoking something.
Our old friend Bernie the Maestro (4/1) is back. Bernie has a lot of back class and appears to be rounding into some semblance of good form, but he will have to do a lot of work from the 13 post to avoid having a wide trip around the turn. Consider him on your verticals, but I think you should look elsewhere for the winner, as I have already said.
Finally, if you are looking for someone to fill out that superfecta, take a look at Won Fast Bullet (10/1) starting for Michael Maker under Alan Garcia. Maker wins 25% first time after a trainer change, claimed from Dutrow, and they finish in the money 52% of the time for him. Won Fast Bullet will need to run his best, or better, but has numbers which suggest he could get up for a piece of the action here.
So, to put it in plain English. Use the 5 Off the Jak with the 7, 13, and 9.
The Fair Grounds card this weekend is a less than inspiring affair. So rather than try to break down some state bred maiden claiming race for 2yo's that nobody cares about, I will lay out my late Pick 4 selections.
Race 7 I like in order: 7 Counterblow (7/2), 9 Greenhavens Reward (9/2), 5 Dorsett (6/1) and 3 Cairo Six (4/1)
Race 8 looks pretty chalky: 7 Done Gone (2/1), 3 Contemporaray (5/2) and 1 Hudson's Creed (9/2).
Race 9-- 9 Wits End (9/2) , 10 Midnight Heist 6/1), 4 Banta (3/1), and 2 Manchac (7/2).
Race 10 is one of those 2 yo MCL events and you are either going to have to go with the one obvious horse 1. Hello Kitty Lou (8/5), or hit the all button. It's up to you.
Good luck and see you next week
The Claiming Crown races at GP will offer many good betting opportunities. The one that jumps off the Thoro-Graph sheets to me is the 6th race, the Rapid Transit. The morning line Favorite is the 2, Coosada (7/2). Coosada is a one run closer with no early speed. These types do not win very often on GP's main track. Instead I want to focus on Off The Jak (10/1). Off The Jak may be the lone speed in the race and has the conditioning benefit of having raced over Calder's tiring race course. Off The Jak's sheet figures, discounting the last race where he had to contend for the lead in a Fl. Bred Stakes race, are competitive with the other major contenders here. The connections of trainer Shivananda Parbhoo and jockey Jose Alvarez are capable and not likely to draw betting attention as will some of the bigger name trainers in the race.
Also contending in this race will be Peb Hughes (6/1). Because this horse is trained by Richard Dutrow and will be ridden by Javier Castellano, it has gotten a lot of DRF attention and is in fact their best bet. Peb Hughes is capable of winning here, but if you think you will get 6/1 after the DRF kiss of death, you're smoking something.
Our old friend Bernie the Maestro (4/1) is back. Bernie has a lot of back class and appears to be rounding into some semblance of good form, but he will have to do a lot of work from the 13 post to avoid having a wide trip around the turn. Consider him on your verticals, but I think you should look elsewhere for the winner, as I have already said.
Finally, if you are looking for someone to fill out that superfecta, take a look at Won Fast Bullet (10/1) starting for Michael Maker under Alan Garcia. Maker wins 25% first time after a trainer change, claimed from Dutrow, and they finish in the money 52% of the time for him. Won Fast Bullet will need to run his best, or better, but has numbers which suggest he could get up for a piece of the action here.
So, to put it in plain English. Use the 5 Off the Jak with the 7, 13, and 9.
The Fair Grounds card this weekend is a less than inspiring affair. So rather than try to break down some state bred maiden claiming race for 2yo's that nobody cares about, I will lay out my late Pick 4 selections.
Race 7 I like in order: 7 Counterblow (7/2), 9 Greenhavens Reward (9/2), 5 Dorsett (6/1) and 3 Cairo Six (4/1)
Race 8 looks pretty chalky: 7 Done Gone (2/1), 3 Contemporaray (5/2) and 1 Hudson's Creed (9/2).
Race 9-- 9 Wits End (9/2) , 10 Midnight Heist 6/1), 4 Banta (3/1), and 2 Manchac (7/2).
Race 10 is one of those 2 yo MCL events and you are either going to have to go with the one obvious horse 1. Hello Kitty Lou (8/5), or hit the all button. It's up to you.
Good luck and see you next week
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Slipping through the Gulfstream..Park that is
Not much to talk about last week's results. The scratch of Jersey Town in the Cigar upset all of my best laid plans. I still thought the filly, Groupie Doll, was beatable. Turns out she was, barely. I would've preferred to do the beating with Hymn Book. Picking Stay Thirsty to do the job required no inspiration and paid accordingly. Unfortunately, Hymn Book chose to take the day off too. The only difference is, at least Jersey Town called in sick.
The Pago Hop at Fair Grounds turned out somewhat better. Not as good as was hoped for but better. Zapper Belle was 10-1 in the morning line, but she couldn't fool the betting public who made her the 3rd choice at 4-1. Unfortunately for the betting public, the 2-1 favorite Drama Drama ran the entire race 3 to 5 wide, and 7-2 second choice Ire did not take to grass as well as I had hoped. While I'm on the topic, while Rosie Napravnik is as fine a jockey as there is right now and will certainly win more than her share of races, everything she is sitting on is getting over bet. Ire probably fit in that category as well. As expected, Soonerette led the way for 6 furlongs and spit the bit without finding the courage or the stamina to be a factor at the end.
All that said, if you had my top choices in vertical bets, you didn't fare too well. Hopefully you had a win ticket on Zapper Belle. Personally, I had moved to pick 4 mode by this part of the day and did not get hurt by the failure of Drama Drama and Ire to get the job done. I did get the pick 4, but with 3 favorites making up the other 3 legs and a mere 4-1 winning this leg, it was nothing to shout about.
This Saturday I'll stay with Fair Grounds. Most of the races are for cheap horses, so there may be some interesting opportunities arise there. Also I will be setting up shop at Gulfstream Park which will feature the Claiming Crown races on its opening day card. I have always found the Claiming Crown races to be quite inscrutable, so it should be an interesting and possibly very profitable day.
Check back on Saturday for Claiming Crown picks.
The Pago Hop at Fair Grounds turned out somewhat better. Not as good as was hoped for but better. Zapper Belle was 10-1 in the morning line, but she couldn't fool the betting public who made her the 3rd choice at 4-1. Unfortunately for the betting public, the 2-1 favorite Drama Drama ran the entire race 3 to 5 wide, and 7-2 second choice Ire did not take to grass as well as I had hoped. While I'm on the topic, while Rosie Napravnik is as fine a jockey as there is right now and will certainly win more than her share of races, everything she is sitting on is getting over bet. Ire probably fit in that category as well. As expected, Soonerette led the way for 6 furlongs and spit the bit without finding the courage or the stamina to be a factor at the end.
All that said, if you had my top choices in vertical bets, you didn't fare too well. Hopefully you had a win ticket on Zapper Belle. Personally, I had moved to pick 4 mode by this part of the day and did not get hurt by the failure of Drama Drama and Ire to get the job done. I did get the pick 4, but with 3 favorites making up the other 3 legs and a mere 4-1 winning this leg, it was nothing to shout about.
This Saturday I'll stay with Fair Grounds. Most of the races are for cheap horses, so there may be some interesting opportunities arise there. Also I will be setting up shop at Gulfstream Park which will feature the Claiming Crown races on its opening day card. I have always found the Claiming Crown races to be quite inscrutable, so it should be an interesting and possibly very profitable day.
Check back on Saturday for Claiming Crown picks.
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Walkin' To New Orleans
Apologies to Fats Domino. This week I'm moving my handicapping visor to one of my favorite cities, New Orleans, where the bourbon flows freely, the horses are cheap and the women are...well.
The feature race on today's Fair Grounds card is the $75k Pago Hop for 3 year old fillies. The race features a highly competitive 8 horse field where it is possible to make a legitimate case for 7 of the 8 entries in the race with only Kazachka (30/1) appearing not to fit.
The morning line favorite is number 6 Drama Drama (3/1). Drama Drama turned in an excellent effort last out in the G2 Raven Run at Keeneland last October. A repeat of this effort will be good enough to win the Pago Hop which is why she is favored. But you see, the Raven Run was contested over the Poly track. Drama Drama has demonstrated turf ability and I will use her on my tickets, but I am going to look elsewhere for my key horse.
The number 1 filly, Ire (7/2), gets Rosie Napravnik who was just lights out at Fair Grounds last season. I remember remarking to friends last year that you bet against Rosie at peril to your bankroll at the Fair Grounds. Ire is another who has been running good enough to win this race, but she has never raced on grass. Ire will take a lot of money because of her connections and may be a factor in this race. I will use her on my tickets as well. I will not let Rosie hurt me at Fair Grounds, but I still need a key horse.
In this race I finally settled on the 8 Zapper Belle (6/1). Zapper Belle is another fillie with a good October effort at Keeneland. There is one key difference between races at Keeneland for Drama Drama and Zapper Belle. The Valley View (G3) was run on turf. Zapper held the lead in the stretch, but was unable to hold off the winner and place fillies. This race for Zapper paired her effort to a race at Arlington in early August and suggests to me that she is ready to move forward with a big effort.
Because this is a relatively short field of 8, 7 really if we discount the chances of Kazachka, it is tough to go any deeper for the exacta than 3 contenders. If you choose the trifecta route you might want to throw the 2 Soonerette (6/1) into the mix. Soonerette figures to go to the lead, so at least you will have one third of the trifecta for 7/8ths of the 1 mile race. And how often do these front runners find the courage to stay on and pick up a piece of the purse, even if they can't get the main prize?
In summation. Key number 8 Zapper Belle with #1 Ire and #6 Drama Drama. Hopefully we'll crush the race with a win and Zapper on top of an exacta with the other two contenders. I'll also box the 1 and 6 in a separate exacta. The plan being that if I am wrong about Zapper Belle, I will not be wrong about Drama Drama and Ire and at least get a consolation payoff to cover my overall investment.
The next race I want to discuss this week is the G1 Cigar at Aqueduct. Here we get yet another girl against the boys battle of the sexes hype. Like the Pago Hop we get another highly contentious race with a case to be made for nearly every entry. In this race the toss out is #2 Associate (20/1) though I will admit that an upset by Associate would not be as jaw dropping as an upset by Kalachtka in the Pago Hop.
I went about 3 different ways in this race before finally settling on how to approach this race. I'll just say up front that if Groupie Doll wins the race, as she very well may, then I will be totally wrong about this race. Everyone reading this knows what a great filly Groupie Doll has turned out to be this year and I won't bore you with information you already know as if I were bringing it to you for the first time. There is no reason the Groupster can't win this race except 1, she is coming off a huge effort 3 weeks ago at Santa Anita and 2, as good as she is, we have to acknowledge the theory of diminishing returns. In other words, she has shown us her best. It is highly improbable she will be better, therefore, it is highly probable she will not run as well this time as she did at Santa Anita. Some I know might call this bounce theory, I just call it common sense. Her 2nd best may still be good enough, but she is up against some hombres and there is a small question as to how she will handle the distance.
At first I wanted to go with Stay Thirsty (7/2). Stay Thirsty has the credentials to win this race, but, again, the distance is a concern. In this case, the distance may not be enough for Stay Thirsty to uncoil his best effort.
Next I considered Hymn Book (6/1). Hymn Book has the speed to win and finished 2nd in this race last year. But again, the mile does not seem to be his natural distance. Not that he can't win, but like Stay Thirsty, it may not be his optimal.
By now you may have guessed that I am looking for a true miler and in this race there is only one horse with the capability to win this race that fits the bill. Jersey Town (4/1) will be my huckleberry, key horse, for this race.
Jersey Town won this race in 2010 and in case you are one of those,"Yeah, but what have you done for me lately." types I will point out that 2 races back he won the G2 Kelso beating a field that included Shackleford, Tapizar, and To Honor and Serve (all recent G1 winners). Certainly Jersey Town has not only the credentials, but the current form to win a race of this caliber.
From a betting standpoint the short field is again prohibitive for going much deeper than exacta's. Play Jersey Town to win. Play a 3 horse exacta box with Jersey Town, Stay Thirsty, and Hymn Book. I am going to count on Groupie Doll getting hugely overplayed, but that may not happen. To add emphasis to my opinion, I will also key Jersey Town top and bottom with Stay Thirsty and Hymn Book. Finally, I will play a just in case Groupie Doll/Jersey Town exacta to cover myself in the event Groupie Doll lives up to the hype.
Last week was a tough week for the Weasel. In the If Winter Comes, I did call the audible to Beau Choix over Lubash based on the odds. Unfortunately Beau Choix was compromised at the start and was only able to get up for 3rd. I could live with that as just bad racing luck except that neither the winner or the place horses, Seal Cove and Abilio were on my radar. As a result every horse I used with the exception of Beau Choix finished out of the money. Swing and miss.
In the Commonwealth Turf at Chuchill Downs, I thought it was possible to play against the morning line favorite King David. Apparently, I was not alone in that appraisal and King David went of at 5/1. Chose Film Shot as my key in this race. Alas, was disappointed as my 8/1 key horse finished well out of the money in 11th. Did at least have some of the horses in the mix as the winner Lea brought home the bacon at a reasonable 5/2. Unfortunately, King David came on late to snatch the Lea/Lockout exacta from me. In this case 2 strikes and I'm out. Here's hoping I, and you, have better luck this time.
Remember to follow me on Twitter @cobb42 during the day as I may comment on potential spot plays as they come up.
The feature race on today's Fair Grounds card is the $75k Pago Hop for 3 year old fillies. The race features a highly competitive 8 horse field where it is possible to make a legitimate case for 7 of the 8 entries in the race with only Kazachka (30/1) appearing not to fit.
The morning line favorite is number 6 Drama Drama (3/1). Drama Drama turned in an excellent effort last out in the G2 Raven Run at Keeneland last October. A repeat of this effort will be good enough to win the Pago Hop which is why she is favored. But you see, the Raven Run was contested over the Poly track. Drama Drama has demonstrated turf ability and I will use her on my tickets, but I am going to look elsewhere for my key horse.
The number 1 filly, Ire (7/2), gets Rosie Napravnik who was just lights out at Fair Grounds last season. I remember remarking to friends last year that you bet against Rosie at peril to your bankroll at the Fair Grounds. Ire is another who has been running good enough to win this race, but she has never raced on grass. Ire will take a lot of money because of her connections and may be a factor in this race. I will use her on my tickets as well. I will not let Rosie hurt me at Fair Grounds, but I still need a key horse.
In this race I finally settled on the 8 Zapper Belle (6/1). Zapper Belle is another fillie with a good October effort at Keeneland. There is one key difference between races at Keeneland for Drama Drama and Zapper Belle. The Valley View (G3) was run on turf. Zapper held the lead in the stretch, but was unable to hold off the winner and place fillies. This race for Zapper paired her effort to a race at Arlington in early August and suggests to me that she is ready to move forward with a big effort.
Because this is a relatively short field of 8, 7 really if we discount the chances of Kazachka, it is tough to go any deeper for the exacta than 3 contenders. If you choose the trifecta route you might want to throw the 2 Soonerette (6/1) into the mix. Soonerette figures to go to the lead, so at least you will have one third of the trifecta for 7/8ths of the 1 mile race. And how often do these front runners find the courage to stay on and pick up a piece of the purse, even if they can't get the main prize?
In summation. Key number 8 Zapper Belle with #1 Ire and #6 Drama Drama. Hopefully we'll crush the race with a win and Zapper on top of an exacta with the other two contenders. I'll also box the 1 and 6 in a separate exacta. The plan being that if I am wrong about Zapper Belle, I will not be wrong about Drama Drama and Ire and at least get a consolation payoff to cover my overall investment.
The next race I want to discuss this week is the G1 Cigar at Aqueduct. Here we get yet another girl against the boys battle of the sexes hype. Like the Pago Hop we get another highly contentious race with a case to be made for nearly every entry. In this race the toss out is #2 Associate (20/1) though I will admit that an upset by Associate would not be as jaw dropping as an upset by Kalachtka in the Pago Hop.
I went about 3 different ways in this race before finally settling on how to approach this race. I'll just say up front that if Groupie Doll wins the race, as she very well may, then I will be totally wrong about this race. Everyone reading this knows what a great filly Groupie Doll has turned out to be this year and I won't bore you with information you already know as if I were bringing it to you for the first time. There is no reason the Groupster can't win this race except 1, she is coming off a huge effort 3 weeks ago at Santa Anita and 2, as good as she is, we have to acknowledge the theory of diminishing returns. In other words, she has shown us her best. It is highly improbable she will be better, therefore, it is highly probable she will not run as well this time as she did at Santa Anita. Some I know might call this bounce theory, I just call it common sense. Her 2nd best may still be good enough, but she is up against some hombres and there is a small question as to how she will handle the distance.
At first I wanted to go with Stay Thirsty (7/2). Stay Thirsty has the credentials to win this race, but, again, the distance is a concern. In this case, the distance may not be enough for Stay Thirsty to uncoil his best effort.
Next I considered Hymn Book (6/1). Hymn Book has the speed to win and finished 2nd in this race last year. But again, the mile does not seem to be his natural distance. Not that he can't win, but like Stay Thirsty, it may not be his optimal.
By now you may have guessed that I am looking for a true miler and in this race there is only one horse with the capability to win this race that fits the bill. Jersey Town (4/1) will be my huckleberry, key horse, for this race.
Jersey Town won this race in 2010 and in case you are one of those,"Yeah, but what have you done for me lately." types I will point out that 2 races back he won the G2 Kelso beating a field that included Shackleford, Tapizar, and To Honor and Serve (all recent G1 winners). Certainly Jersey Town has not only the credentials, but the current form to win a race of this caliber.
From a betting standpoint the short field is again prohibitive for going much deeper than exacta's. Play Jersey Town to win. Play a 3 horse exacta box with Jersey Town, Stay Thirsty, and Hymn Book. I am going to count on Groupie Doll getting hugely overplayed, but that may not happen. To add emphasis to my opinion, I will also key Jersey Town top and bottom with Stay Thirsty and Hymn Book. Finally, I will play a just in case Groupie Doll/Jersey Town exacta to cover myself in the event Groupie Doll lives up to the hype.
Last week was a tough week for the Weasel. In the If Winter Comes, I did call the audible to Beau Choix over Lubash based on the odds. Unfortunately Beau Choix was compromised at the start and was only able to get up for 3rd. I could live with that as just bad racing luck except that neither the winner or the place horses, Seal Cove and Abilio were on my radar. As a result every horse I used with the exception of Beau Choix finished out of the money. Swing and miss.
In the Commonwealth Turf at Chuchill Downs, I thought it was possible to play against the morning line favorite King David. Apparently, I was not alone in that appraisal and King David went of at 5/1. Chose Film Shot as my key in this race. Alas, was disappointed as my 8/1 key horse finished well out of the money in 11th. Did at least have some of the horses in the mix as the winner Lea brought home the bacon at a reasonable 5/2. Unfortunately, King David came on late to snatch the Lea/Lockout exacta from me. In this case 2 strikes and I'm out. Here's hoping I, and you, have better luck this time.
Remember to follow me on Twitter @cobb42 during the day as I may comment on potential spot plays as they come up.
Saturday, November 17, 2012
Whoa Oh, Oh, Oh, Oh...Aqueduh-uh-uh-uh-uh-uct
Sitting by the home stretch,
Eyeing little fillies making well placed bets.
Looking for the overlays,
Ink-stained fingers turning tattered pages.
Oh Aqueduct.
My apologies to Ian Anderson.
Ok, so I didn't have time to post last week. I mean, its not like your paying for this great analysis or anything are you?
Time for the November racing doldrums. The Breeders' Cup is passed and the big Winter tracks have yet to open. Fortunately, Gulfstream Park will open on December 1st. GP is my home track and I expect to have another great wagering season and will bring you along for the ride with some great picks. Fair Grounds opens on Thanksgiving day. Fair Grounds is one of my favorite tracks to play. Sometimes I think my Cajun brethren just get band wagon crazy on horses leaving perfectly viable contenders way overlaid. There will be prices and payoffs to have, and I intend to get my share.
Moving Aqueduct, where there is a nice card for a late fall day, I want to talk about the 6th race the 80k If Winter Comes stakes. Soldat, #5 in your racing program, is the 3/1 morning line favorite. Soldat has not races since March and that was off another 10 month layoff from his 3 year old season. Horses coming off a layoff do not deter me. It is an old racing common wisdom that horses coming off long layoffs should be avoided. I believe that old saw is no longer as applicable as it was 10 or 20 years ago. So many things have changed in equine science with regard to therapies, medicine and training techniques over the years, that I am of the belief that horses, in the right hands, can come off a layoff and win top quality races. Kiaran McLaughlin is certainly the right hands.
All that being said, I believe there is an opportunity here to play against the ML favorite who has run 1 race since May, 2011. #2 Lubash (6/1) will start for Christophe Clement. Lubash consistently runs his race and will make an excellent horse to key with. In his last race, Lubash disappointed his backers as the race favorite finishing 4th. According to the track notes, Lubash fought the bit, was rank, was eased back, had alter course. A troubled trip to say the least. Here's to the belief that whatever was bothering Lubash will be cured today and he will run back to his normal numbers.
To be used with Lubash will be #3 Beau Choix (5/1). Beau Choix is another that is more machine than horse. In other words a very consistent sort. Should Beau Choix go to the post at higher odds than Lubash, the possibility of calling an audible and using him at the key should be considered.
Another to use will be #4 Queen'splatekitten (7/2). A very capable Kitten's Joy colt trained by Todd (is a god) Pletcher. QPK will surely get overbet, as all of Todd's entries are, but should certainly be used as he rates to be right there and a win would not be a shocker.
Finally I cannot ignore ML favorite Soldat. Soldate has run well off long layoffs in the past and a win here is certainly not out of the question. I'm not going to bet on it, but Soldat cannot be tossed away and will have to be used in the vertical exotics just to keep thing covered.
So there you have it. Key either Lubash or Beau Choix with QPK and Soldat in exactas, Trifecta's, and supers with the others.
Chuchill runs one of their twilight cards today which may be popular with the locals but plays havoc with the Chalk Eating Weasel who is usually well into his 2nd fine Bourbon of the night by the time the good races come up. I particularly liked the race 7, the G3 Commonwealth Stakes on Turf.
Race 7 is wide open with no clear favorite, so if we can get this right, we will get paid!. I am not going to use the ML Favorite #11 King Davd (4/1) even though he has a great line. I prefer the #1 horse Film Shot (8/1) as my key horse in this race. Film shot also has a very nice line coming into this race and looks to improve of a very good effort at Hawthorne. Film Shot breaks from Post 1 and should be able to get another ground saving trip for us.
To be used with Film Shot will be the #6 Lea(5/1) ridden by BC Classic winner B.J. Hernandez. Lea is another consistent runner who figures to be near the front when the field reaches the wire. Rounding out the vertical wagers will be #9 Excaper (10/1) and #14 Lockout (8/1). If any two or 3 of these can run as they've been runnning all year and the favorite King David regresses even a little off his recent top, we may have a very generous payoff from this race.
I am also following Woodbine and Delta downs today, so watch for tweets from @cobb42 for any spot plays I come up with from these two tracks as well as AQU and CD.
Good luck.
Eyeing little fillies making well placed bets.
Looking for the overlays,
Ink-stained fingers turning tattered pages.
Oh Aqueduct.
My apologies to Ian Anderson.
Ok, so I didn't have time to post last week. I mean, its not like your paying for this great analysis or anything are you?
Time for the November racing doldrums. The Breeders' Cup is passed and the big Winter tracks have yet to open. Fortunately, Gulfstream Park will open on December 1st. GP is my home track and I expect to have another great wagering season and will bring you along for the ride with some great picks. Fair Grounds opens on Thanksgiving day. Fair Grounds is one of my favorite tracks to play. Sometimes I think my Cajun brethren just get band wagon crazy on horses leaving perfectly viable contenders way overlaid. There will be prices and payoffs to have, and I intend to get my share.
Moving Aqueduct, where there is a nice card for a late fall day, I want to talk about the 6th race the 80k If Winter Comes stakes. Soldat, #5 in your racing program, is the 3/1 morning line favorite. Soldat has not races since March and that was off another 10 month layoff from his 3 year old season. Horses coming off a layoff do not deter me. It is an old racing common wisdom that horses coming off long layoffs should be avoided. I believe that old saw is no longer as applicable as it was 10 or 20 years ago. So many things have changed in equine science with regard to therapies, medicine and training techniques over the years, that I am of the belief that horses, in the right hands, can come off a layoff and win top quality races. Kiaran McLaughlin is certainly the right hands.
All that being said, I believe there is an opportunity here to play against the ML favorite who has run 1 race since May, 2011. #2 Lubash (6/1) will start for Christophe Clement. Lubash consistently runs his race and will make an excellent horse to key with. In his last race, Lubash disappointed his backers as the race favorite finishing 4th. According to the track notes, Lubash fought the bit, was rank, was eased back, had alter course. A troubled trip to say the least. Here's to the belief that whatever was bothering Lubash will be cured today and he will run back to his normal numbers.
To be used with Lubash will be #3 Beau Choix (5/1). Beau Choix is another that is more machine than horse. In other words a very consistent sort. Should Beau Choix go to the post at higher odds than Lubash, the possibility of calling an audible and using him at the key should be considered.
Another to use will be #4 Queen'splatekitten (7/2). A very capable Kitten's Joy colt trained by Todd (is a god) Pletcher. QPK will surely get overbet, as all of Todd's entries are, but should certainly be used as he rates to be right there and a win would not be a shocker.
Finally I cannot ignore ML favorite Soldat. Soldate has run well off long layoffs in the past and a win here is certainly not out of the question. I'm not going to bet on it, but Soldat cannot be tossed away and will have to be used in the vertical exotics just to keep thing covered.
So there you have it. Key either Lubash or Beau Choix with QPK and Soldat in exactas, Trifecta's, and supers with the others.
Chuchill runs one of their twilight cards today which may be popular with the locals but plays havoc with the Chalk Eating Weasel who is usually well into his 2nd fine Bourbon of the night by the time the good races come up. I particularly liked the race 7, the G3 Commonwealth Stakes on Turf.
Race 7 is wide open with no clear favorite, so if we can get this right, we will get paid!. I am not going to use the ML Favorite #11 King Davd (4/1) even though he has a great line. I prefer the #1 horse Film Shot (8/1) as my key horse in this race. Film shot also has a very nice line coming into this race and looks to improve of a very good effort at Hawthorne. Film Shot breaks from Post 1 and should be able to get another ground saving trip for us.
To be used with Film Shot will be the #6 Lea(5/1) ridden by BC Classic winner B.J. Hernandez. Lea is another consistent runner who figures to be near the front when the field reaches the wire. Rounding out the vertical wagers will be #9 Excaper (10/1) and #14 Lockout (8/1). If any two or 3 of these can run as they've been runnning all year and the favorite King David regresses even a little off his recent top, we may have a very generous payoff from this race.
I am also following Woodbine and Delta downs today, so watch for tweets from @cobb42 for any spot plays I come up with from these two tracks as well as AQU and CD.
Good luck.
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Breeders' Cup Hangover
www.cewreport.com
@cobb42
Recovering from major BC hangover today (this was originally written on Sunday). What a great 2 days of racing. Profitable as well. You will not be bored with long winded recaps If that is what you wanted to read you have had plenty of opportunity or read reports from more sources then I could possibly enumerate. Instead, a few brief comments and then on to the important stuff...how my selections worked out
Firstly, congrats to both Little Mike and Trinniberg. Little Mike is a personal favorite of mine since he violates all the conventional rules racing on Turf. People always say he won't get away with it this time, yet he almost always does. The biggest surprise about Little Mike yesterday was that he didn't do it gate to wire for once. A new dimension to his running style will make this gelding even more difficult to handle next year.
I did not have Trinniberg at all in this race as I thought he might have tailed off some as the year wore on. If I have to be wrong, I want it to be about horses like Trinniberg, a local S. Florida horse that got his start here. If you want success stories about immigrants coming to America, you need look not further than the owner/trainer connections of Trinniberg. It is quite a story.
Groupie Doll and Wise Dan both made it look easy. Too bad the connections of Frankel, touted by some to be the greatest race horse alive, didn't have the stones to come to America and meet our champion. For my money Wise Dan has earned the title greatest race horse alive for his consistency, soundness, versatility, and the fact that he always makes it look so easy.
And of course the Classic was another for the ages. This is the 3rd year in a row that Mike Smith has been a factor in the outcome of my Classic wager. Two years ago I'm screming at the monitor urging on Blame to hold off the late charging Zenyatta (ridden, of course, by Mike Smith), last year I was yelling at the track, as I was in attendance, for Game On Dude to hold off the late charging Drosselmeyer (to no avail). And this year I yelling at my television for Fort Larned to outlast a very game Mucho Macho Man. To paraphrase a well known cliche,"Sometimes you get Smitty, and sometimes Smitty gets you."
In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf I didn't see George Vancouver coming. Upon post mortem review of the sheets I should have given him more consideration. Noble Tune and Dundonell managed 2nd and 4th respectively, but this race is one for the loss column.
The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint was not one of my shining moments. I was personally happy for Jim Rome as his Mizdirection ran a great race for the win; however, none of the other contenders really threatened. I think the lesson to learn from this race for next year is to look for the locally based Cali horses and jockeys who are familiar with racing on this unique course.
One might think it is time to despair, and it would be had not Friday been such a strong day. But yes, the Classic is still to come and The Weasel managed to come back strong in the weekend get out race the BC Classic. It was the perfect set up as we had a horse who already proven against many in this race and the very great advantage of connections who are not exactly household names among the casual race going public who only go to bet on the big days. It's these people who should be donating to the bankrolls of us grinders. If you can't take advantage of their uninformed opinions and herd-like mentalities you should find another hobby.
With the bulk of the wagering going to the head line horse Game On Dude (1.3-1) prices were spread out generously among the other contenders. All we had to do was get the right one home on top and so we did with Fort Larned at (9-1). Other contenders Mucho Macho Man and Flat Out were also mildly overlayed at 6-1 each. Of course we also used Game On Dude. I mean, we aren't stupid, man. If the Gamester is on his game today, we at least want to get something back for our effort. The recommended key, Fort Larned broke well and led every step of the way despite the best efforts of Mucho Macho Man and Mike Smith, made the day, and saved our gains from the previous day.
Ft. Larned paid 20.80 to win and 9.80 to place. The exacta paid a delightful $62.70 for a mere dollar and the trifecta, if you went that deep, with Flat Out coming in third paid a nice $306.90 for the one dollar.
I really hope someone out there is benefitting from these selections up to now as I have done quite well for any readers out there since beginning my come back. If you have benefitted anyway from this effort, I'd love to here from you. Show The Weasel some love.
I don't know yet which tracks I'll be tackling this weekend but you can be sure I'll be trying to think outside the box, buck the conventional wisdom and come up with a winner or two at a price worth playing. Together, let's take over the world!
@cobb42
Recovering from major BC hangover today (this was originally written on Sunday). What a great 2 days of racing. Profitable as well. You will not be bored with long winded recaps If that is what you wanted to read you have had plenty of opportunity or read reports from more sources then I could possibly enumerate. Instead, a few brief comments and then on to the important stuff...how my selections worked out
Firstly, congrats to both Little Mike and Trinniberg. Little Mike is a personal favorite of mine since he violates all the conventional rules racing on Turf. People always say he won't get away with it this time, yet he almost always does. The biggest surprise about Little Mike yesterday was that he didn't do it gate to wire for once. A new dimension to his running style will make this gelding even more difficult to handle next year.
I did not have Trinniberg at all in this race as I thought he might have tailed off some as the year wore on. If I have to be wrong, I want it to be about horses like Trinniberg, a local S. Florida horse that got his start here. If you want success stories about immigrants coming to America, you need look not further than the owner/trainer connections of Trinniberg. It is quite a story.
Groupie Doll and Wise Dan both made it look easy. Too bad the connections of Frankel, touted by some to be the greatest race horse alive, didn't have the stones to come to America and meet our champion. For my money Wise Dan has earned the title greatest race horse alive for his consistency, soundness, versatility, and the fact that he always makes it look so easy.
And of course the Classic was another for the ages. This is the 3rd year in a row that Mike Smith has been a factor in the outcome of my Classic wager. Two years ago I'm screming at the monitor urging on Blame to hold off the late charging Zenyatta (ridden, of course, by Mike Smith), last year I was yelling at the track, as I was in attendance, for Game On Dude to hold off the late charging Drosselmeyer (to no avail). And this year I yelling at my television for Fort Larned to outlast a very game Mucho Macho Man. To paraphrase a well known cliche,"Sometimes you get Smitty, and sometimes Smitty gets you."
In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf I didn't see George Vancouver coming. Upon post mortem review of the sheets I should have given him more consideration. Noble Tune and Dundonell managed 2nd and 4th respectively, but this race is one for the loss column.
The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint was not one of my shining moments. I was personally happy for Jim Rome as his Mizdirection ran a great race for the win; however, none of the other contenders really threatened. I think the lesson to learn from this race for next year is to look for the locally based Cali horses and jockeys who are familiar with racing on this unique course.
One might think it is time to despair, and it would be had not Friday been such a strong day. But yes, the Classic is still to come and The Weasel managed to come back strong in the weekend get out race the BC Classic. It was the perfect set up as we had a horse who already proven against many in this race and the very great advantage of connections who are not exactly household names among the casual race going public who only go to bet on the big days. It's these people who should be donating to the bankrolls of us grinders. If you can't take advantage of their uninformed opinions and herd-like mentalities you should find another hobby.
With the bulk of the wagering going to the head line horse Game On Dude (1.3-1) prices were spread out generously among the other contenders. All we had to do was get the right one home on top and so we did with Fort Larned at (9-1). Other contenders Mucho Macho Man and Flat Out were also mildly overlayed at 6-1 each. Of course we also used Game On Dude. I mean, we aren't stupid, man. If the Gamester is on his game today, we at least want to get something back for our effort. The recommended key, Fort Larned broke well and led every step of the way despite the best efforts of Mucho Macho Man and Mike Smith, made the day, and saved our gains from the previous day.
Ft. Larned paid 20.80 to win and 9.80 to place. The exacta paid a delightful $62.70 for a mere dollar and the trifecta, if you went that deep, with Flat Out coming in third paid a nice $306.90 for the one dollar.
I really hope someone out there is benefitting from these selections up to now as I have done quite well for any readers out there since beginning my come back. If you have benefitted anyway from this effort, I'd love to here from you. Show The Weasel some love.
I don't know yet which tracks I'll be tackling this weekend but you can be sure I'll be trying to think outside the box, buck the conventional wisdom and come up with a winner or two at a price worth playing. Together, let's take over the world!
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Breeder's Cup Day 2
www.cewreport.blogspot.com
@cobb42
In my last I wrote in reference to the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, " Whatever you do, use some discretion and do not take a short price in this race." That statement could almost be univerally applied to all of Friday's BC races as only Royal Delta and Beholder came in under $10.00 for the win. Today should be no different.
First let's look at Friday's action with regard to my predictions.
In the BC Juvi. Fillies Turf. I wanted to use Spring Venture as the key horse, but after the TVG panel of "experts" all jumped on this horse I despaired getting a square price on her. Falling a little for the early hype, I thought that Sky Lantern might be a viable alternative if she should somehow eluded favoritism. Sky Lantern turned out to be the favorite and Spring Venture the 2nd choice at 5-2 and 7-2 respectively.
I followed my own advice and did not accept short prices in this race. I Tweeted an audible and suggested using the #4 Flotilla keyed with Whatsdachances, Spring Venture, and Flashy Ways. History will record that Flotilla finished ahead of Whatsdachances triggering a 24.80 win price and a $85.50 (for a dollar) exacta. This race is a classic example of letting the odds make the betting decision.
For the BC F&M Turf the recomendation was #2 Zagora keying her with #8 Nahrain, #12 In Lingerie and #9 Marketing Mix refusing to believe the hype with regard to The Fugue and Ridasiyna. Javier Castellano was brilliant on Zagora saving ground for much of the trip and swinging her out at just the right moment to win going away while Marketing Mix held off late running The Fugue to grab 2nd place. The win paid $18.40 and the dollar exacta returned $47.90.
Two races covered, two wins and exacta payoffs, not bad. Before R7 I Tweeted that I thought Beholder was overlayed at 9-2 and suggested to using him with Executive Privelege and Kauai Katie. Beholder paid $3.90 to win and the dollar exacta $13.30. I also Tweeted that Grace Hall in the Ladies Classic appeared to be a huge overlay as she finally settled at 14-1 final odds. Royal Delta won the race at a buck seventy to 1. No surprise there while Grace Hall finished a non threatening 4th. Just goes to show you can't win them all. The real surprise in this race, to me, was the disappearance of the 2nd choice Awesome Feather who clearly did not run her usual race. Questing was pulled up and vanned off. I remember hearing people around me noticing she was sweating excessively did not look good in the post parade. Sounds like another horse that should not have been allowed to go to post.
All of that is yesterday's news, what about today?
The Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf looks to be wide open with not clear morning line favorite. I will be looking to use the 9 Noble Tune, 13 Know More, 2 Artigiano, and 6 Dundonnel listed in my order of preference. In this race I will use one of these as a key horse, but I will let the odds make that decision for me. Not a real clear prognostication, but if you really need someone to hold your hand through this one, follow me on Twitter.
The Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint is another pick 'em race with no dominant contender to soak up a lot of wagering money. This race and the BC Juvi Turf promise to have gigantic mutuel payouts as a result of the public's indecision. Eventually the herd will settle on some one depending on how the betting goes and who the "pros" are touting. Our job will be to steer our path clear of the herd and I think we can do that with the 8 Great Attack (10-1), 5 Next Question (10-1), 9 Bridgetown (a very luke-warm 9-2 ML favorite) and 11 Mizdirection (20-1). Again, in this race, the odds will make the final decision for us and I will Tweet the key before the race. More incentive to follow me on Twitter.
In the Breeder's Cup Classic, everybody will be talking about the 5 Game on Dude (9-5), 2 Flat Out (5-1), and 11 Mucho Macho Man (8-1). In fact I will be using these very horses. But the horse I think may get over-looked in this race is the 4 Fort Larned (5-1). I predict his post time odds will be higher due to the better known names in the race like Ron The Greek, To Honor and Serve, and Richard's Kid. It will also help that trainer Ian Wilkes and jockey B.J. Hernandez are not exactly household names to the casual twice a year racing fan. Fort Larned has the perfect running line to use as a key horse being a very consistent and honest horse who also happens to be competitive with the others in this race. So....just to be clear, Fort Larned will be the key to use with the other 3 mentioned in this race.
That's it for today. Hopefully, yesterday's performance can be duplicated today as that would make for a very successful BC weekend. Follow me on Twitter @cobb42 as it has been demonstrated that audible's can and may be called. Good luck to all and mostly good luck to the jockey and the horses. Here's to hoping they all come back healthy and sound.
@cobb42
In my last I wrote in reference to the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, " Whatever you do, use some discretion and do not take a short price in this race." That statement could almost be univerally applied to all of Friday's BC races as only Royal Delta and Beholder came in under $10.00 for the win. Today should be no different.
First let's look at Friday's action with regard to my predictions.
In the BC Juvi. Fillies Turf. I wanted to use Spring Venture as the key horse, but after the TVG panel of "experts" all jumped on this horse I despaired getting a square price on her. Falling a little for the early hype, I thought that Sky Lantern might be a viable alternative if she should somehow eluded favoritism. Sky Lantern turned out to be the favorite and Spring Venture the 2nd choice at 5-2 and 7-2 respectively.
I followed my own advice and did not accept short prices in this race. I Tweeted an audible and suggested using the #4 Flotilla keyed with Whatsdachances, Spring Venture, and Flashy Ways. History will record that Flotilla finished ahead of Whatsdachances triggering a 24.80 win price and a $85.50 (for a dollar) exacta. This race is a classic example of letting the odds make the betting decision.
For the BC F&M Turf the recomendation was #2 Zagora keying her with #8 Nahrain, #12 In Lingerie and #9 Marketing Mix refusing to believe the hype with regard to The Fugue and Ridasiyna. Javier Castellano was brilliant on Zagora saving ground for much of the trip and swinging her out at just the right moment to win going away while Marketing Mix held off late running The Fugue to grab 2nd place. The win paid $18.40 and the dollar exacta returned $47.90.
Two races covered, two wins and exacta payoffs, not bad. Before R7 I Tweeted that I thought Beholder was overlayed at 9-2 and suggested to using him with Executive Privelege and Kauai Katie. Beholder paid $3.90 to win and the dollar exacta $13.30. I also Tweeted that Grace Hall in the Ladies Classic appeared to be a huge overlay as she finally settled at 14-1 final odds. Royal Delta won the race at a buck seventy to 1. No surprise there while Grace Hall finished a non threatening 4th. Just goes to show you can't win them all. The real surprise in this race, to me, was the disappearance of the 2nd choice Awesome Feather who clearly did not run her usual race. Questing was pulled up and vanned off. I remember hearing people around me noticing she was sweating excessively did not look good in the post parade. Sounds like another horse that should not have been allowed to go to post.
All of that is yesterday's news, what about today?
The Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf looks to be wide open with not clear morning line favorite. I will be looking to use the 9 Noble Tune, 13 Know More, 2 Artigiano, and 6 Dundonnel listed in my order of preference. In this race I will use one of these as a key horse, but I will let the odds make that decision for me. Not a real clear prognostication, but if you really need someone to hold your hand through this one, follow me on Twitter.
The Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint is another pick 'em race with no dominant contender to soak up a lot of wagering money. This race and the BC Juvi Turf promise to have gigantic mutuel payouts as a result of the public's indecision. Eventually the herd will settle on some one depending on how the betting goes and who the "pros" are touting. Our job will be to steer our path clear of the herd and I think we can do that with the 8 Great Attack (10-1), 5 Next Question (10-1), 9 Bridgetown (a very luke-warm 9-2 ML favorite) and 11 Mizdirection (20-1). Again, in this race, the odds will make the final decision for us and I will Tweet the key before the race. More incentive to follow me on Twitter.
In the Breeder's Cup Classic, everybody will be talking about the 5 Game on Dude (9-5), 2 Flat Out (5-1), and 11 Mucho Macho Man (8-1). In fact I will be using these very horses. But the horse I think may get over-looked in this race is the 4 Fort Larned (5-1). I predict his post time odds will be higher due to the better known names in the race like Ron The Greek, To Honor and Serve, and Richard's Kid. It will also help that trainer Ian Wilkes and jockey B.J. Hernandez are not exactly household names to the casual twice a year racing fan. Fort Larned has the perfect running line to use as a key horse being a very consistent and honest horse who also happens to be competitive with the others in this race. So....just to be clear, Fort Larned will be the key to use with the other 3 mentioned in this race.
That's it for today. Hopefully, yesterday's performance can be duplicated today as that would make for a very successful BC weekend. Follow me on Twitter @cobb42 as it has been demonstrated that audible's can and may be called. Good luck to all and mostly good luck to the jockey and the horses. Here's to hoping they all come back healthy and sound.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Breeder's Cup 2012--Day 1
www.cewreport.blogspot.com
@cobb42
Finally, the much ballyhooed and hyped Breeder's Cup weekend returns. I love the Breeder's Cup races although from a handicapping perspective I often find it very difficult to separate contenders and the entries are, for the most part usually very good. Because of that there is no reason to settle for short prices in these races.
I would like to give a special thanks to the folks at Thoro-Graph for the great and dedicated work they have performed in getting the Thoro-Graph sheets online under what must be very trying circumstances due to hurricane Sandy. Their office in Manhattan is like 2 or 3 blocks from the Hudson River near Battery Park, an area which was hit by a record setting storm surge. Speaking as a 20+ year resident of coastal south Florida, I have certainly ridden out more severe hurricanes in terms of wind, but the storm surge is obviously the story of Sandra, not to mention the blizzard in higher elevations like West Virginia. Blizzards are one thing I don't have to worry about here in the Miami area.
Meanwhile on to the business at hand, mainly finding some unique opportunities that maybe you won't find elsewhere.
I was a little underwhelmed with Friday's BC card. Not with the quality of the fields, but my ability to come up with any creative ideas as the ML for the most part seemed to fall in line with my own thinking.
The BC Fillies Turf for 2yo is one race where there may be an opportunity with a large and evenly matched field. There is nothing wrong with the 3/1 ML favorite #3 Sky Lantern, but in this big field of unpredictable 2yo's I'm willing to take a shot against her. #5 Spring Venture (5/1) is undefeated in 3 starts with figures on turf just a little less than Sky Lantern's. I would recomend making this confirmed winner a key horse using the #6 Watsdachance (4/1), #13 Flashy Ways (10/1), and the improving #4 Flotilla (8/1). The field large enough that you may be able to include Sky Lantern in the mix as well, that is assuming the odds follow the ML. This is clearly a race where you have to let the odds make your final decision for you. Should Sky Lantern, for some reason not be the betting favorite, elevate her in your ticket construction. Whatever you do, use some discretion and do not take a short price in this race.
In the 8th race on Friday, the BC Filly and Mare Turf. I am not impressed with the ML favorites #4 The Fugue (7/2) and #10 Ridasiyna. I would prefer to use the #2 Zagora(8/1) keying her with #8 Nahrain (6/1), #12 In Lingerie (12/1) and #9 Marketing Mix (9/2). I like any of these better than the 2 ML favorites. Another large field, and another potentially large pay out if I'm right about the ML favorites.
I'm sure there will be other opportunities to come up in the day. I will also be trying my luck at Churchill Downs and Woodbine tomorrow and will try to Tweet out any spur of the moment ideas I come up with.
Good Luck and enjoy the racing this weekend, it doesn't get any better than this.
@cobb42
Finally, the much ballyhooed and hyped Breeder's Cup weekend returns. I love the Breeder's Cup races although from a handicapping perspective I often find it very difficult to separate contenders and the entries are, for the most part usually very good. Because of that there is no reason to settle for short prices in these races.
I would like to give a special thanks to the folks at Thoro-Graph for the great and dedicated work they have performed in getting the Thoro-Graph sheets online under what must be very trying circumstances due to hurricane Sandy. Their office in Manhattan is like 2 or 3 blocks from the Hudson River near Battery Park, an area which was hit by a record setting storm surge. Speaking as a 20+ year resident of coastal south Florida, I have certainly ridden out more severe hurricanes in terms of wind, but the storm surge is obviously the story of Sandra, not to mention the blizzard in higher elevations like West Virginia. Blizzards are one thing I don't have to worry about here in the Miami area.
Meanwhile on to the business at hand, mainly finding some unique opportunities that maybe you won't find elsewhere.
I was a little underwhelmed with Friday's BC card. Not with the quality of the fields, but my ability to come up with any creative ideas as the ML for the most part seemed to fall in line with my own thinking.
The BC Fillies Turf for 2yo is one race where there may be an opportunity with a large and evenly matched field. There is nothing wrong with the 3/1 ML favorite #3 Sky Lantern, but in this big field of unpredictable 2yo's I'm willing to take a shot against her. #5 Spring Venture (5/1) is undefeated in 3 starts with figures on turf just a little less than Sky Lantern's. I would recomend making this confirmed winner a key horse using the #6 Watsdachance (4/1), #13 Flashy Ways (10/1), and the improving #4 Flotilla (8/1). The field large enough that you may be able to include Sky Lantern in the mix as well, that is assuming the odds follow the ML. This is clearly a race where you have to let the odds make your final decision for you. Should Sky Lantern, for some reason not be the betting favorite, elevate her in your ticket construction. Whatever you do, use some discretion and do not take a short price in this race.
In the 8th race on Friday, the BC Filly and Mare Turf. I am not impressed with the ML favorites #4 The Fugue (7/2) and #10 Ridasiyna. I would prefer to use the #2 Zagora(8/1) keying her with #8 Nahrain (6/1), #12 In Lingerie (12/1) and #9 Marketing Mix (9/2). I like any of these better than the 2 ML favorites. Another large field, and another potentially large pay out if I'm right about the ML favorites.
I'm sure there will be other opportunities to come up in the day. I will also be trying my luck at Churchill Downs and Woodbine tomorrow and will try to Tweet out any spur of the moment ideas I come up with.
Good Luck and enjoy the racing this weekend, it doesn't get any better than this.
Sunday, October 28, 2012
10-27 Recap
www.cewreport.blogspot.com Follow me on Twitter @cobb42
I work in the medical device industry. The medical device industry is highly regulated and highly competitive. Accountability in my profession is paramount. I am required to deliver what I say I am going to deliver when I say I am going deliver it. If only our politicians were held to such standards.
Accountability is important to me personally as well. My goal is to find winning plays that are off radar of most prognosticators, including the so-called professionals. As an aside, has anyone ever noticed how many "professional" horse players seem to have other lines of work. But I digress.
How did I do yesterday. If I cannot help my readers win some nice paying mutuels, I will not waste your time or mine. So let's see what happened.
Yesterday I covered three races from Keeneland.
In race 1, I flatly wanted to take a stand against the morning line favorite Crypto Kitten. I thought that the betting public would be savvy enough to see through the making of Crytpo Kitten a favorite, and I was correct in that regard as he went of as the third choice in the betting at 3.8-1. I preferred 3 horses over CK. Expressively, Living My Dream and Tola. Expressively ran well managing a 2nd place finish. Living My Dream managed to fill out the super and Tola was completely out of the money. The winner of the race, Thus, was sent off at 4-1 by the bettors.
I am disappointed the I overlooked the merits of Thus. Outside of the fact that he was untried on synthetics, there was no reason not to give him consideration as Tiznow's offspring don't seem to have any issues running on the polytrack. A mere 4.60 place payoff can't be considered a success.
Trying to catch up at Laurel and keeping an eye on Belmont and Keeneland, I did not Tweet as often as I would have liked. I did catch couple winners early at Laurel and in the 4th at Keeneland, but there just isn't enough time when covering 3 tracks and trying to handicap to be as active in Twitter as I would like. However, I did not let you down entirely. Prior to the 5th at Keenland I tweeted that I did not like the favorite Judge Bill (2.4-1) and that I would be using the 2-3-5. Sometimes my arm just hurts from patting myself on the back. The finish was 3-5-2. The exacta paid $37.40 and the trifecta $135.00. Not a bad spot play, eh.
For the 8th race I got a set up in the sheets which I have found to be very productive. The 6 horse Tapit Dancer had run 5 times this year and ran the same figure each time out. The figure run was competitive for the race. I love to use this type of horse as a key in Exactas, Tris, and supers. Usually this type will give you a reliable performance, something I think you need from a key horse as well as a price. I should have known things were awry when Tapit Dancer was the 3.7-1 second choice. I stated that 7 Eye Candy Annie (8.5-1) was a solid 2nd place candidate, Ansus (11.5-1) looked promising in spite of his compromised turf pedigree and that Dame Marie (3.1-1) looked to be useful in the bottom rungs on the tri and super. All of this I got right, but without the key horse it all comes to nada. Tapit Dancer started out 9th in a field of 11 and was never a factor. Julio Garcia and Wesley Ward who were en fuego had the winner with Sisterhood (5.4-1).
Finally we come to the 9th race. A race to be proud of. I wrote,"The G2 Fayette, Kee 9, back some familiar names from early in the year, but I'm going to a less familiar name to use as a key for this race. The 3 Nikki's Sandcastle (8/1) never gives you a bad effort. Not even when he was vanned off 3 races ago. He has not yet won a race of this caliber, but he is as fast as any in here and will make a good horse to key off. Other contenders to use are the 4 Newsdad (5/1), 6 Salto (7/2) who really took to the surface on his first attempt, and 8 Middie (5/1) who gets a red hot under the radar jockey trainer combination in Phillip Oliver and John Court. The 5 Take Charge Indy (3/1) is sure to be skimming the rail with Borel aboard (I will shun the trite nickname) and may be a factor in the vertical exotics as well. Remember, key the 3."
Dare I say,"Nailed It!" The order of finish was 4 Newsdad (8.5-1), 3 Nikki's Sandcastle (10-1), the key horse, 5 Take Charge Indy (4.6-1) and Salto (a very underlayed 3-2). Middie brought up the 5th position. If there had been a Big 5 type of vertical bet, I would have had that. As it was the exacta paid $185.20, the Trifecta $1584.20 the $2 superfecta a cool $4539.60 and $226.98 for a mere dime. As a matter of full disclosure, I do not personally like to play Tri's and supers preferring Win, Place and exactas. I had the 3 to win and place and exactas keying the 3 with the other contenders. This race made my day and I hope it made yours as well.
I will be back for the Breeder's cup and perhaps another track next week with a special Friday bonus addition. As usual, I will not waste your time trying to predict the winner of every race, that is simply a tiresome and unproductive exercise for me. I will look for areas where I think the odds will overlook a viable contender and point them out to you as I have done thus far. The good thing about the BC races is that the pools are so large, and all the horses so good that there is a good deal of randomness in the outcomes. For instance, last year I did not have alot of winners but I did have Musical Romance at 20-1, for a large amount, based simply on the awareness that horses that race all Summer long at Calder Race Course tend to be very fit and underrated. These are the types of things I will look for next week and pass along.
I work in the medical device industry. The medical device industry is highly regulated and highly competitive. Accountability in my profession is paramount. I am required to deliver what I say I am going to deliver when I say I am going deliver it. If only our politicians were held to such standards.
Accountability is important to me personally as well. My goal is to find winning plays that are off radar of most prognosticators, including the so-called professionals. As an aside, has anyone ever noticed how many "professional" horse players seem to have other lines of work. But I digress.
How did I do yesterday. If I cannot help my readers win some nice paying mutuels, I will not waste your time or mine. So let's see what happened.
Yesterday I covered three races from Keeneland.
In race 1, I flatly wanted to take a stand against the morning line favorite Crypto Kitten. I thought that the betting public would be savvy enough to see through the making of Crytpo Kitten a favorite, and I was correct in that regard as he went of as the third choice in the betting at 3.8-1. I preferred 3 horses over CK. Expressively, Living My Dream and Tola. Expressively ran well managing a 2nd place finish. Living My Dream managed to fill out the super and Tola was completely out of the money. The winner of the race, Thus, was sent off at 4-1 by the bettors.
I am disappointed the I overlooked the merits of Thus. Outside of the fact that he was untried on synthetics, there was no reason not to give him consideration as Tiznow's offspring don't seem to have any issues running on the polytrack. A mere 4.60 place payoff can't be considered a success.
Trying to catch up at Laurel and keeping an eye on Belmont and Keeneland, I did not Tweet as often as I would have liked. I did catch couple winners early at Laurel and in the 4th at Keeneland, but there just isn't enough time when covering 3 tracks and trying to handicap to be as active in Twitter as I would like. However, I did not let you down entirely. Prior to the 5th at Keenland I tweeted that I did not like the favorite Judge Bill (2.4-1) and that I would be using the 2-3-5. Sometimes my arm just hurts from patting myself on the back. The finish was 3-5-2. The exacta paid $37.40 and the trifecta $135.00. Not a bad spot play, eh.
For the 8th race I got a set up in the sheets which I have found to be very productive. The 6 horse Tapit Dancer had run 5 times this year and ran the same figure each time out. The figure run was competitive for the race. I love to use this type of horse as a key in Exactas, Tris, and supers. Usually this type will give you a reliable performance, something I think you need from a key horse as well as a price. I should have known things were awry when Tapit Dancer was the 3.7-1 second choice. I stated that 7 Eye Candy Annie (8.5-1) was a solid 2nd place candidate, Ansus (11.5-1) looked promising in spite of his compromised turf pedigree and that Dame Marie (3.1-1) looked to be useful in the bottom rungs on the tri and super. All of this I got right, but without the key horse it all comes to nada. Tapit Dancer started out 9th in a field of 11 and was never a factor. Julio Garcia and Wesley Ward who were en fuego had the winner with Sisterhood (5.4-1).
Finally we come to the 9th race. A race to be proud of. I wrote,"The G2 Fayette, Kee 9, back some familiar names from early in the year, but I'm going to a less familiar name to use as a key for this race. The 3 Nikki's Sandcastle (8/1) never gives you a bad effort. Not even when he was vanned off 3 races ago. He has not yet won a race of this caliber, but he is as fast as any in here and will make a good horse to key off. Other contenders to use are the 4 Newsdad (5/1), 6 Salto (7/2) who really took to the surface on his first attempt, and 8 Middie (5/1) who gets a red hot under the radar jockey trainer combination in Phillip Oliver and John Court. The 5 Take Charge Indy (3/1) is sure to be skimming the rail with Borel aboard (I will shun the trite nickname) and may be a factor in the vertical exotics as well. Remember, key the 3."
Dare I say,"Nailed It!" The order of finish was 4 Newsdad (8.5-1), 3 Nikki's Sandcastle (10-1), the key horse, 5 Take Charge Indy (4.6-1) and Salto (a very underlayed 3-2). Middie brought up the 5th position. If there had been a Big 5 type of vertical bet, I would have had that. As it was the exacta paid $185.20, the Trifecta $1584.20 the $2 superfecta a cool $4539.60 and $226.98 for a mere dime. As a matter of full disclosure, I do not personally like to play Tri's and supers preferring Win, Place and exactas. I had the 3 to win and place and exactas keying the 3 with the other contenders. This race made my day and I hope it made yours as well.
I will be back for the Breeder's cup and perhaps another track next week with a special Friday bonus addition. As usual, I will not waste your time trying to predict the winner of every race, that is simply a tiresome and unproductive exercise for me. I will look for areas where I think the odds will overlook a viable contender and point them out to you as I have done thus far. The good thing about the BC races is that the pools are so large, and all the horses so good that there is a good deal of randomness in the outcomes. For instance, last year I did not have alot of winners but I did have Musical Romance at 20-1, for a large amount, based simply on the awareness that horses that race all Summer long at Calder Race Course tend to be very fit and underrated. These are the types of things I will look for next week and pass along.
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Let's go to Keeneland!
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Last week I promised that you would not bored with picks available from hundreds, maybe thousands, of other sources. Such is the case at Belmont Park this week as none of the races available on the card did anything to stir my grumpy contrarian bones. Sure there will be some upsets, this is horse racing after all. But they are not forseeable to this old weasel. I'll be Tweeting any spot plays I see and the betting plays out, but, for now, let's move ahead (not forward).
In the first race at Keeneland there may be a small opportunity for a disturbance in the force. The ML favorite #2 Crypto Kitten (3/1) is trained by Maker and ridden by Leparoux. A classic opportunity for an underlay. My case against CK is simply where is the improvement going to come from for this 5 year old maiden? Other's in this race have already run faster, and CK has only raced once in a less that good effort on synthetics.
Frankly, the betting public should see through the sham of CK as the ML favorite, in which case there is not likely to be an edge for the astute, contrarian investor. However Jockey/Trainer combinations can be powerful influences on the tote board, so we need to be ready, just in case.
Number 4 Expressively (7/2) is a lightly raced 4 year old with room for improvement, ran respectably at Turfway, and has a pair of earlier races on turf to run back to which are good enough to win here if she can duplicate those efforts.
The 6 horse Living My Dream (4/1) might be considered the "other Maker", as opposed to the "other Pletcher", in this race. On paper this filly looks better than the ML favorite and is definitely more likely to get better.
Throw in the #5 Tola (4/1) who is dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time and there are 3 horses which rate to finish ahead of the ML favorite. None of these will be tote busters, so don't blow your bank roll trying to make a big score, but you might be able to get your day off to a good start courtesy of those who can't see beyond Ramsey/Maker/Leparoux.
Have to skip all the way to the eight race at Keeneland for the next play. Not really a contrarian idea, but this appears to be wide open without any one horse dominating the tote board. The 6 horse Tapit Dancer (5/1) is the kind of horse I love to play with because she is a consistently good type without being so dominant that she draws a lot of attention. She fits real good here and I will use her to key all sorts of vertical exotics. The 7 horse, Eye Candy Annie (6/1) looks to be a strong 2nd choice to Tapit Dancer. The price horse in this mix may wind up being the 3 Ausus (8/1). Ausus has never run on turf and honestly, her breeding on the sire side does not suggest she will take to the surface with much vigor. Daniel Peitz's trainer stats do not suggest he will do well in this scenario either; however, jockey James Graham is excellent on the turf. The 3 year old Ausus's numbers are moving in the right direction, so she is fit and I am going to use her in e/bxactas, trifectas and supers. You might say using Ausus is a bit contrarian, but I think it may be a bit of an esoteric stretch. The 8 horse Zucchini Flower (4/1) will fill out the ticket for the exacta and top tri positions. Others I like to fill out the bottom rungs of the super are the 9 Dame Marie (6/1), the 11 Funny Belle (15/1), and the 12 Blushandbashful (12/1).
The G2 Fayette, Kee 9, back some familiar names from early in the year, but I'm going to a less familiar name to use as a key for this race. The 3 Nikki's Sandcastle (8/1) never gives you a bad effort. Not even when he was vanned off 3 races ago. He has not yet won a race of this caliber, but he is as fast as any in here and will make a good horse to key off. Other contenders to use are the 4 Newsdad (5/1), 6 Salto (7/2) who really took to the surface on his first attempt, and 8 Middie (5/1) who gets a red hot under the radar jockey trainer combination in Phillip Oliver and John Court. The 5 Take Charge Indy (3/1) is sure to be skimming the rail with Borel aboard (I will shun the trite nickname) and may be a factor in the vertical exotics as well. Remember, key the 3.
That's all I got. I wanted to cover Laurel today as they have a nice card, but I'm running out of time. Follow me on Twitter as I will be making comments throughout the day.
Last week I promised that you would not bored with picks available from hundreds, maybe thousands, of other sources. Such is the case at Belmont Park this week as none of the races available on the card did anything to stir my grumpy contrarian bones. Sure there will be some upsets, this is horse racing after all. But they are not forseeable to this old weasel. I'll be Tweeting any spot plays I see and the betting plays out, but, for now, let's move ahead (not forward).
In the first race at Keeneland there may be a small opportunity for a disturbance in the force. The ML favorite #2 Crypto Kitten (3/1) is trained by Maker and ridden by Leparoux. A classic opportunity for an underlay. My case against CK is simply where is the improvement going to come from for this 5 year old maiden? Other's in this race have already run faster, and CK has only raced once in a less that good effort on synthetics.
Frankly, the betting public should see through the sham of CK as the ML favorite, in which case there is not likely to be an edge for the astute, contrarian investor. However Jockey/Trainer combinations can be powerful influences on the tote board, so we need to be ready, just in case.
Number 4 Expressively (7/2) is a lightly raced 4 year old with room for improvement, ran respectably at Turfway, and has a pair of earlier races on turf to run back to which are good enough to win here if she can duplicate those efforts.
The 6 horse Living My Dream (4/1) might be considered the "other Maker", as opposed to the "other Pletcher", in this race. On paper this filly looks better than the ML favorite and is definitely more likely to get better.
Throw in the #5 Tola (4/1) who is dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time and there are 3 horses which rate to finish ahead of the ML favorite. None of these will be tote busters, so don't blow your bank roll trying to make a big score, but you might be able to get your day off to a good start courtesy of those who can't see beyond Ramsey/Maker/Leparoux.
Have to skip all the way to the eight race at Keeneland for the next play. Not really a contrarian idea, but this appears to be wide open without any one horse dominating the tote board. The 6 horse Tapit Dancer (5/1) is the kind of horse I love to play with because she is a consistently good type without being so dominant that she draws a lot of attention. She fits real good here and I will use her to key all sorts of vertical exotics. The 7 horse, Eye Candy Annie (6/1) looks to be a strong 2nd choice to Tapit Dancer. The price horse in this mix may wind up being the 3 Ausus (8/1). Ausus has never run on turf and honestly, her breeding on the sire side does not suggest she will take to the surface with much vigor. Daniel Peitz's trainer stats do not suggest he will do well in this scenario either; however, jockey James Graham is excellent on the turf. The 3 year old Ausus's numbers are moving in the right direction, so she is fit and I am going to use her in e/bxactas, trifectas and supers. You might say using Ausus is a bit contrarian, but I think it may be a bit of an esoteric stretch. The 8 horse Zucchini Flower (4/1) will fill out the ticket for the exacta and top tri positions. Others I like to fill out the bottom rungs of the super are the 9 Dame Marie (6/1), the 11 Funny Belle (15/1), and the 12 Blushandbashful (12/1).
The G2 Fayette, Kee 9, back some familiar names from early in the year, but I'm going to a less familiar name to use as a key for this race. The 3 Nikki's Sandcastle (8/1) never gives you a bad effort. Not even when he was vanned off 3 races ago. He has not yet won a race of this caliber, but he is as fast as any in here and will make a good horse to key off. Other contenders to use are the 4 Newsdad (5/1), 6 Salto (7/2) who really took to the surface on his first attempt, and 8 Middie (5/1) who gets a red hot under the radar jockey trainer combination in Phillip Oliver and John Court. The 5 Take Charge Indy (3/1) is sure to be skimming the rail with Borel aboard (I will shun the trite nickname) and may be a factor in the vertical exotics as well. Remember, key the 3.
That's all I got. I wanted to cover Laurel today as they have a nice card, but I'm running out of time. Follow me on Twitter as I will be making comments throughout the day.
Sunday, October 21, 2012
Soupy State bred and Keeneland Recap
It's accountability time for Chalk Eating Weasel. Let's see how I did.
In the 2nd race at Belmont I recommended Miss Valentine as a viable contender at a price and this turned out to be so as she went off at 11/1. Willet was much the best winning by 9.25 lengths and Miss Valentine survived a 3 horse photo for place triggering a $182.50 exacta payout. Fortunately for me, a friend whom I was watching the races with pointed out the merits of Willet, and I held a winning exacta ticket for this race. I try to do better for you. However, if you had Miss Valentine to place the payoff was 10.00 which is not too shabby.
As an aside, my purpose is not to tell you what or how to bet, but to point out some horses which may be overlooked by other bettors and publications to help bolster your bottom lines. Directing you to a live horse which out performs its odds is a success.
Race 5 was won by the even money favorite, Weekend Hideaway. My recommended play in this race was Meet the Mets. The betting public made Meet the Mets 8/1. Unfortunately, Meet the Mets ran like the Mets played for much of this season and finished up the tracks. The 25/1 Saint Arthur managed to get up for place. I had dismissed Saint Arthur on the theory that if he couldn't win at Finger Lakes he could not win at Belmont. Might have to reassess that theory.
For the sixth race, The Hudson, I suggested that ML and underlayed betting favorite Saginaw could be had and urged you to look to Shrewd One (9/2) and Mine Over Matter (6/1). The order of finish, Mine Over Matter, Saginaw, Shrewd One would have paid you $15.00 if you went with MOM in the win column. The Exacta paid 31.00 and the Tri 74.00.
In the eight race I liked Kelli Got Frosty at the ML of 6/1. I should have known any viable contender put out by Rudy Rodriguez would get over bet. So I turned me attention to Gee Linz (6/1) and Agilon (7/2). Bad for me as I went for the price with Gee Linz who finished last. Agilon managed a 2nd place finish and Kelli Got Frosty the show, but I can't really consider this one a success on any level.
I covered 3 races at Keeneland. What happened here?
Race 7
I'll leave it up to the reader if you consider this a success. Here's what I wrote about the Place finisher Hey Leroy (17/1)," but the horse that is really interesting and will require some courage to play is the 20/1 #4 Hey Leroy." The other contenders I wrote of in this race disappointed, but if you were able to over come your instinctive aversion to long priced ponies, Hey Leroy payed an opulent 16.60 to place.
Race 9 the G2 Raven Run
Turns out Gypsy Robin is the real deal, at least for this race. Lotta Lovin (26/1) ran like a 26/1 should run. You know, when you are looking for prices, you are going to miss once in a while. So sorry about the whiff here, but I think I make up for it in race 10, my best bet of the day.
Race 10
Here's a refresher, "If the ML is close to accurate there is a real opportunity for a good price in this race. My best bet of the day is #8 Eddie Set Go at 8/1 in the ML. Unlike the DRF, my best bet is one likely to get you a price, not an odds on favorite. Eddie Set Go has the best Thorograph figures of any other horse in the race and should be favored IMHO. Eddie Set Go is a steady Eddie having run 7's or 8's in his last 6 races at PID. No guarantees but there is something to be said for consistency and, barring improvements in the competition, 7's or 8's will be good enough to win this race. Other contenders include long shots #3 Proud Jared (12/1) and #4 Smak Dab (30/1). Both these have run numbers that make them solid contenders for the minor awards setting up an excellent possibility of a high paying tri or super bet. Use them with the #12 Codoy (5/1) who draws the tough outside post. I would definitely key Eddie Set Go with these 3 in the vertical exotics."
Here's a recap of the race results
Eddie Set Go 13.20 7.60 5.00, Proud Jared 18.20 8.20, Codoy 4.20 Exacta 8-3 193.40, Trifecta 1296.40, If only Smak Dab, who was among the first flight for 3/4's could have stayed on to round out what would have been a monster super.
I rest my case, you be the judge
In the 2nd race at Belmont I recommended Miss Valentine as a viable contender at a price and this turned out to be so as she went off at 11/1. Willet was much the best winning by 9.25 lengths and Miss Valentine survived a 3 horse photo for place triggering a $182.50 exacta payout. Fortunately for me, a friend whom I was watching the races with pointed out the merits of Willet, and I held a winning exacta ticket for this race. I try to do better for you. However, if you had Miss Valentine to place the payoff was 10.00 which is not too shabby.
As an aside, my purpose is not to tell you what or how to bet, but to point out some horses which may be overlooked by other bettors and publications to help bolster your bottom lines. Directing you to a live horse which out performs its odds is a success.
Race 5 was won by the even money favorite, Weekend Hideaway. My recommended play in this race was Meet the Mets. The betting public made Meet the Mets 8/1. Unfortunately, Meet the Mets ran like the Mets played for much of this season and finished up the tracks. The 25/1 Saint Arthur managed to get up for place. I had dismissed Saint Arthur on the theory that if he couldn't win at Finger Lakes he could not win at Belmont. Might have to reassess that theory.
For the sixth race, The Hudson, I suggested that ML and underlayed betting favorite Saginaw could be had and urged you to look to Shrewd One (9/2) and Mine Over Matter (6/1). The order of finish, Mine Over Matter, Saginaw, Shrewd One would have paid you $15.00 if you went with MOM in the win column. The Exacta paid 31.00 and the Tri 74.00.
In the eight race I liked Kelli Got Frosty at the ML of 6/1. I should have known any viable contender put out by Rudy Rodriguez would get over bet. So I turned me attention to Gee Linz (6/1) and Agilon (7/2). Bad for me as I went for the price with Gee Linz who finished last. Agilon managed a 2nd place finish and Kelli Got Frosty the show, but I can't really consider this one a success on any level.
I covered 3 races at Keeneland. What happened here?
Race 7
I'll leave it up to the reader if you consider this a success. Here's what I wrote about the Place finisher Hey Leroy (17/1)," but the horse that is really interesting and will require some courage to play is the 20/1 #4 Hey Leroy." The other contenders I wrote of in this race disappointed, but if you were able to over come your instinctive aversion to long priced ponies, Hey Leroy payed an opulent 16.60 to place.
Race 9 the G2 Raven Run
Turns out Gypsy Robin is the real deal, at least for this race. Lotta Lovin (26/1) ran like a 26/1 should run. You know, when you are looking for prices, you are going to miss once in a while. So sorry about the whiff here, but I think I make up for it in race 10, my best bet of the day.
Race 10
Here's a refresher, "If the ML is close to accurate there is a real opportunity for a good price in this race. My best bet of the day is #8 Eddie Set Go at 8/1 in the ML. Unlike the DRF, my best bet is one likely to get you a price, not an odds on favorite. Eddie Set Go has the best Thorograph figures of any other horse in the race and should be favored IMHO. Eddie Set Go is a steady Eddie having run 7's or 8's in his last 6 races at PID. No guarantees but there is something to be said for consistency and, barring improvements in the competition, 7's or 8's will be good enough to win this race. Other contenders include long shots #3 Proud Jared (12/1) and #4 Smak Dab (30/1). Both these have run numbers that make them solid contenders for the minor awards setting up an excellent possibility of a high paying tri or super bet. Use them with the #12 Codoy (5/1) who draws the tough outside post. I would definitely key Eddie Set Go with these 3 in the vertical exotics."
Here's a recap of the race results
Eddie Set Go 13.20 7.60 5.00, Proud Jared 18.20 8.20, Codoy 4.20 Exacta 8-3 193.40, Trifecta 1296.40, If only Smak Dab, who was among the first flight for 3/4's could have stayed on to round out what would have been a monster super.
I rest my case, you be the judge
Saturday, October 20, 2012
Soupy State Breds and Keeneland Too!
By way of reintroduction I will state the goal of this Blog site. Share handicapping ideas and selections with other handicappers. I will take a contrarian approach turning handicapping conventional wisdom on it's head when appropriate in order to find overlayed, winning plays. I will not bore you by giving you picks that every other prognosticator or you yourself will come up with. What would be the point of that? I also will not bore you with tired cliches and overblown flowery prose as many writers of these types of articles, myself included, are prone to lapse into from time to time. So let's get to it.
It's raining at Belmont (at least it was when I wrote this last night). Isolated showers are predicted into the night. They are off the turf and all but the highest quality races are probably off tomorrow. The track takes time to dry so conditions will likely remain less that fast at least for the beginning of the day.
Race 2 is the Iroquois for a 150k purse 7f for 3yo and up fillies and mares
3 Agave Kiss is the ML favorite at 2/1. Being trained by R. Rodriquez and ridden by Ramon, I'll take the under on those Post Time Odds. Agave Kiss may be the best, but there are others which merit consideration and will be better prices.
7 Risky Rachel is 5/2 on the ML and may also be a little short in the price department come post time but she definitely has to be considered a threat to the favorite
The value in the race may be the 4 Miss Valentine who has been cycling towards her 3 year old top. She is 8/1 on the ML and if the top 2 take excess money in the betting she could go off higher. She will have to break through that top and run the best race of her life to win here. She is well rested and, for what its worth, jockey Joel Rosario is 27% on off tracks with a positive ROI and the offspring of sire Afleet Alex win at 18% on off tracks. Definitely use this one in the exotics if nothing else.
The 5th race at Belmont is the 7f BF Bongard 125k for 2yo NY breds
5/2 Weekend Hideaway is the ML favorite and is also cursed with the designation of being a DRF Best Bet. Here you have to ask yourself if you really want to take a short priced 2yo in a full field of 14 where anything can and will happen. Alternatives in this race would be the #2 In Harm's Way at 4/1, the # 7 Western Grit at 5/1 and my personal favorite at 8/1 the #12 Meet the Mets. While the other 4 contenders will be surrounded by green runners, Meet the Mets has the best opportunity to stay out of trouble. Improvement will be required, but with a little racing luck MtM might wind up being the trip horse for this race.
In Race 6, the 150k Hudson there can be a real opportunity as the 4/5 favorite #2 Saginaw has not shown a particular liking for the off track. That said the 6 year old has been dominant, but not perfect, in 2012. The only question is can he be beaten. Take a good hard look at the #6 Shrewd One at 3/1 and #4 Mine Over Matter at 6/1.
In race 8, take a look at the #6 Kelli Got Frosty at 6/1 on the ML. This Filly is as good as any in here but may get no respect, Rudy Rodriguez not withstanding. Others to consider in a wide open race are #3 Gee Linz and #2 Agilon. Bettor beware as DRF does not consider either the 6 or the 3 as serious contenders.
I have not reviewed any turf races due to the uncertain condition of tomorrow's turf course. Handicapping the turf races is pointless without knowing if the race is actually on the surface and which horses will be in or out once any changes to the surface are made. I will 'cap those once the situation is clarified but may not have time to write about it here. Follow me on Twitter for updates as the day progresses.
Now for Keeneland
Had to go deep on the Keeneland card to find what I think will be the best opportunities of the day. Found 3 races to be of particular interest
Race 7 is a MSW 50k for 2yo's on the synthetic track.
I like the ML 9/2 colt #10 O T B Bob, but the horse that is really interesting and will require some courage to play is the 20/1 #4 Hey Leroy. Leroy ran a figure in his first time out that is just a little below some of the shorter choices in the ML and figures to run better at 2nd asking. There are others that also figure to move forward here such as the aforementioned O T B Bob, #6 Forward Thinker (4/1), and #2 Holden On (5/1). Any of these are worthy choices in this wide open race. Because the race is wide open, why not take a shot with a long price. If you can't use Hey Leroy on top, at least make sure you have him on the ticket somewhere
Race 9 is the G2 Ravens Run for 3yo Fillies.
The ML favorites are #11 Gypsy Robin (3/1) trained by Wesley Ward and #10 Via Villagio (4/1) trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. I will be looking to the inside for my prices and recommend going with #4 Lotta Lovin (8/1) trained by Michael Maker. Lotta Lovin appeared to be rounding up to a very good effort before throwing in a clunker at Parx last out. I'm blaming the surface change. If Lotta Lovin can duplicate her February effort at Turfway, which she was rounding back to before the detour, she is right in the hunt against her more heralded opposition. I expect to be using her to win and in exactas with the faves.
Race 10 is a 10k Claimer for 3 and up
If the ML is close to accurate there is a real opportunity for a good price in this race. My best bet of the day is #8 Eddie Set Go at 8/1 in the ML. Unlike the DRF, my best bet is one likely to get you a price, not an odds on favorite. Eddie Set Go has the best Thorograph figures of any other horse in the race and should be favored IMHO. Eddie Set Go is a steady Eddie having run 7's or 8's in his last 6 races at PID. No guarantees but there is something to be said for consistency and, barring improvements in the competition, 7's or 8's will be good enough to win this race. Other contenders include long shots #3 Proud Jared (12/1) and #4 Smak Dab (30/1). Both these have run numbers that make them solid contenders for the minor awards setting up an excellent possibility of a high paying tri or super bet. Use them with the #12 Codoy (5/1) who draws the tough outside post. I would definitely key Eddie Set Go with these 3 in the vertical exotics.
I do reserve the right to change my opinion as conditions warrant, so follow me on Twitter to get up to the minute updates. I wish you the best of luck today.
It's raining at Belmont (at least it was when I wrote this last night). Isolated showers are predicted into the night. They are off the turf and all but the highest quality races are probably off tomorrow. The track takes time to dry so conditions will likely remain less that fast at least for the beginning of the day.
Race 2 is the Iroquois for a 150k purse 7f for 3yo and up fillies and mares
3 Agave Kiss is the ML favorite at 2/1. Being trained by R. Rodriquez and ridden by Ramon, I'll take the under on those Post Time Odds. Agave Kiss may be the best, but there are others which merit consideration and will be better prices.
7 Risky Rachel is 5/2 on the ML and may also be a little short in the price department come post time but she definitely has to be considered a threat to the favorite
The value in the race may be the 4 Miss Valentine who has been cycling towards her 3 year old top. She is 8/1 on the ML and if the top 2 take excess money in the betting she could go off higher. She will have to break through that top and run the best race of her life to win here. She is well rested and, for what its worth, jockey Joel Rosario is 27% on off tracks with a positive ROI and the offspring of sire Afleet Alex win at 18% on off tracks. Definitely use this one in the exotics if nothing else.
The 5th race at Belmont is the 7f BF Bongard 125k for 2yo NY breds
5/2 Weekend Hideaway is the ML favorite and is also cursed with the designation of being a DRF Best Bet. Here you have to ask yourself if you really want to take a short priced 2yo in a full field of 14 where anything can and will happen. Alternatives in this race would be the #2 In Harm's Way at 4/1, the # 7 Western Grit at 5/1 and my personal favorite at 8/1 the #12 Meet the Mets. While the other 4 contenders will be surrounded by green runners, Meet the Mets has the best opportunity to stay out of trouble. Improvement will be required, but with a little racing luck MtM might wind up being the trip horse for this race.
In Race 6, the 150k Hudson there can be a real opportunity as the 4/5 favorite #2 Saginaw has not shown a particular liking for the off track. That said the 6 year old has been dominant, but not perfect, in 2012. The only question is can he be beaten. Take a good hard look at the #6 Shrewd One at 3/1 and #4 Mine Over Matter at 6/1.
In race 8, take a look at the #6 Kelli Got Frosty at 6/1 on the ML. This Filly is as good as any in here but may get no respect, Rudy Rodriguez not withstanding. Others to consider in a wide open race are #3 Gee Linz and #2 Agilon. Bettor beware as DRF does not consider either the 6 or the 3 as serious contenders.
I have not reviewed any turf races due to the uncertain condition of tomorrow's turf course. Handicapping the turf races is pointless without knowing if the race is actually on the surface and which horses will be in or out once any changes to the surface are made. I will 'cap those once the situation is clarified but may not have time to write about it here. Follow me on Twitter for updates as the day progresses.
Now for Keeneland
Had to go deep on the Keeneland card to find what I think will be the best opportunities of the day. Found 3 races to be of particular interest
Race 7 is a MSW 50k for 2yo's on the synthetic track.
I like the ML 9/2 colt #10 O T B Bob, but the horse that is really interesting and will require some courage to play is the 20/1 #4 Hey Leroy. Leroy ran a figure in his first time out that is just a little below some of the shorter choices in the ML and figures to run better at 2nd asking. There are others that also figure to move forward here such as the aforementioned O T B Bob, #6 Forward Thinker (4/1), and #2 Holden On (5/1). Any of these are worthy choices in this wide open race. Because the race is wide open, why not take a shot with a long price. If you can't use Hey Leroy on top, at least make sure you have him on the ticket somewhere
Race 9 is the G2 Ravens Run for 3yo Fillies.
The ML favorites are #11 Gypsy Robin (3/1) trained by Wesley Ward and #10 Via Villagio (4/1) trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. I will be looking to the inside for my prices and recommend going with #4 Lotta Lovin (8/1) trained by Michael Maker. Lotta Lovin appeared to be rounding up to a very good effort before throwing in a clunker at Parx last out. I'm blaming the surface change. If Lotta Lovin can duplicate her February effort at Turfway, which she was rounding back to before the detour, she is right in the hunt against her more heralded opposition. I expect to be using her to win and in exactas with the faves.
Race 10 is a 10k Claimer for 3 and up
If the ML is close to accurate there is a real opportunity for a good price in this race. My best bet of the day is #8 Eddie Set Go at 8/1 in the ML. Unlike the DRF, my best bet is one likely to get you a price, not an odds on favorite. Eddie Set Go has the best Thorograph figures of any other horse in the race and should be favored IMHO. Eddie Set Go is a steady Eddie having run 7's or 8's in his last 6 races at PID. No guarantees but there is something to be said for consistency and, barring improvements in the competition, 7's or 8's will be good enough to win this race. Other contenders include long shots #3 Proud Jared (12/1) and #4 Smak Dab (30/1). Both these have run numbers that make them solid contenders for the minor awards setting up an excellent possibility of a high paying tri or super bet. Use them with the #12 Codoy (5/1) who draws the tough outside post. I would definitely key Eddie Set Go with these 3 in the vertical exotics.
I do reserve the right to change my opinion as conditions warrant, so follow me on Twitter to get up to the minute updates. I wish you the best of luck today.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Stay Tuned for Keeneland and Belmont Selections This Saturday
I've held this space dormant long enough. Come back Saturday as I'm sure there are going some interesting races to peruse from Keeneland, Belmont and maybe a few other tracks as well.
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