Sunday, October 28, 2012

10-27 Recap

www.cewreport.blogspot.com  Follow me on Twitter @cobb42

I work in the medical device industry.  The medical device industry is highly regulated and highly competitive.  Accountability in my profession is paramount.  I am required to deliver what I say I am going to deliver when I say I am going deliver it.  If only our politicians were held to such standards.

 Accountability is important to me personally as well.  My goal is to find winning plays that are off radar of most prognosticators, including the so-called professionals.  As an aside, has anyone ever noticed how many "professional" horse players seem to have other lines of work.  But I digress.

How did I do yesterday.  If I cannot help my readers win some nice paying mutuels, I will not waste your time or mine.  So let's see what happened.

Yesterday I covered three races from Keeneland.

In race 1, I flatly wanted to take a stand against the morning line favorite Crypto Kitten.  I thought that the betting public would be savvy enough to see through the making of Crytpo Kitten a favorite, and I was correct in that regard as he went of as the third choice in the betting at 3.8-1.  I preferred 3 horses over CK.  Expressively, Living My Dream and Tola.  Expressively ran well managing a 2nd place finish.  Living My Dream managed to fill out the super and Tola was completely out of the money.  The winner of the race, Thus, was sent off at 4-1 by the bettors.

I am disappointed the I overlooked the merits of Thus.  Outside of the fact that he was untried on synthetics, there was no reason not to give him consideration as Tiznow's offspring don't seem to have any issues running on the polytrack.  A mere 4.60 place payoff can't be considered a success.

Trying to catch up at Laurel and keeping an eye on Belmont and Keeneland, I did not Tweet as often as I would have liked.  I did catch couple winners early at Laurel and in the 4th at Keeneland, but there just isn't enough time when covering 3 tracks and trying to handicap to be as active in Twitter as I would like.  However, I did not let you down entirely.  Prior to the 5th at Keenland I tweeted that I did not like the favorite Judge Bill (2.4-1) and that I would be using the 2-3-5.  Sometimes my arm just hurts from patting myself on the back. The finish was 3-5-2.  The exacta paid $37.40 and the trifecta $135.00.  Not a bad spot play, eh.

For the 8th race I got a set up in the sheets which I have found to be very productive. The 6 horse Tapit Dancer had run 5 times this year and ran the same figure each time out.  The figure run was competitive for the race.  I love to use this type of horse as a key in Exactas, Tris, and supers.  Usually this type will give you a reliable performance, something I think you need from a key horse as well as a price.  I should have known things were awry when Tapit Dancer was the 3.7-1 second choice.  I stated that 7 Eye Candy Annie (8.5-1) was a solid 2nd place candidate, Ansus (11.5-1) looked promising in spite of his compromised turf pedigree and that Dame Marie (3.1-1) looked to be useful in the bottom rungs on the tri and super.  All of this I got right, but without the key horse it all comes to nada.  Tapit Dancer started out 9th in a field of 11 and was never a factor.  Julio Garcia and Wesley Ward who were en fuego had the winner with Sisterhood (5.4-1).

Finally we come to the 9th race.  A race to be proud of.  I wrote,"The G2 Fayette, Kee 9, back some familiar names from early in the year, but I'm going to a less familiar name to use as a key for this race. The 3 Nikki's Sandcastle (8/1) never gives you a bad effort. Not even when he was vanned off 3 races ago. He has not yet won a race of this caliber, but he is as fast as any in here and will make a good horse to key off. Other contenders to use are the 4 Newsdad (5/1), 6 Salto (7/2) who really took to the surface on his first attempt, and 8 Middie (5/1) who gets a red hot under the radar jockey trainer combination in Phillip Oliver and John Court. The 5 Take Charge Indy (3/1) is sure to be skimming the rail with Borel aboard (I will shun the trite nickname) and may be a factor in the vertical exotics as well. Remember, key the 3."

Dare I say,"Nailed It!"  The order of finish was 4 Newsdad (8.5-1), 3 Nikki's Sandcastle (10-1), the key horse, 5 Take Charge Indy (4.6-1) and Salto (a very underlayed 3-2).  Middie brought up the 5th position.  If there had been a Big 5 type of vertical bet, I would have had that.  As it was the exacta paid $185.20, the Trifecta $1584.20 the $2 superfecta a cool $4539.60 and $226.98 for a mere dime.  As a matter of full disclosure, I do not personally like to play Tri's and supers preferring Win, Place and exactas.  I had the 3 to win and place and exactas keying the 3 with the other contenders.  This race made my day and I hope it made yours as well.

I will be back for the Breeder's cup and perhaps another track next week with a special Friday bonus addition.  As usual, I will not waste your time trying to predict the winner of every race, that is simply a tiresome and unproductive exercise for me.  I will look for areas where I think the odds will overlook a viable contender and point them out to you as I have done thus far.  The good thing about the BC races is that the pools are so large, and all the horses so good that there is a good deal of randomness in the outcomes.  For instance, last year I did not have alot of winners but I did have Musical Romance at 20-1, for a large amount, based simply on the awareness that horses that race all Summer long at Calder Race Course tend to be very fit and underrated.  These are the types of things I will look for next week and pass along.



Saturday, October 27, 2012

Let's go to Keeneland!

atwww.cewreport.blogspot.com  Follow me on Twitter @cobb42

Last week I promised  that you would not bored with picks available from hundreds, maybe thousands, of other sources.  Such is the case at Belmont Park this week as none of the races available on the card did anything to stir my grumpy contrarian bones.  Sure there will be some upsets, this is horse racing after all.  But they are not forseeable to this old weasel.  I'll be Tweeting any spot plays I see and the betting plays out, but, for now, let's move ahead (not forward).

In the first race at Keeneland there may be a small opportunity for a disturbance in the force. The ML favorite  #2 Crypto Kitten (3/1) is trained by Maker and ridden by Leparoux.  A classic opportunity for an underlay.  My case against CK is simply where is the improvement going to come from for this  5 year old maiden?  Other's in this race have already run faster, and CK has only raced once in a less that good effort on synthetics.

Frankly, the betting public should see through the sham of CK as the ML favorite, in which case there is not likely to be an edge for the astute, contrarian investor.  However Jockey/Trainer combinations can be powerful influences on the tote board, so we need to be ready, just in case.

Number 4 Expressively (7/2) is a lightly raced 4 year old with room for improvement,  ran respectably at Turfway, and has a pair of earlier races on turf to run back to which are good enough to win here if she can duplicate those efforts.

The 6 horse Living My Dream (4/1) might be considered the "other Maker", as opposed to the "other Pletcher", in this race.  On paper this filly looks better than the ML favorite and is definitely more likely to get better.

Throw in the #5 Tola (4/1) who is dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time and there are 3 horses which rate to finish ahead of the ML favorite.  None of these will be tote busters, so don't blow your bank roll trying to make a big score, but you might be able to get your day off to a good start courtesy of those who can't see beyond Ramsey/Maker/Leparoux.

Have to skip all the way to the eight race at Keeneland for the next play.  Not really a contrarian idea, but this appears to be wide open without any one horse dominating the tote board.  The 6 horse Tapit Dancer (5/1)  is the kind of horse I love to play with because she is a consistently good type without being so dominant that she draws a lot of attention.  She fits real good here and I will use her to key all sorts of vertical exotics. The 7 horse, Eye Candy Annie (6/1) looks to be a strong 2nd choice to Tapit Dancer.  The price horse in this mix may wind up being the 3 Ausus (8/1).  Ausus has never run on turf and honestly, her breeding on the sire side does not suggest she will take to the surface with much vigor.  Daniel Peitz's trainer stats do not suggest he will do well in this scenario either; however, jockey James Graham is excellent on the turf.  The 3 year old Ausus's numbers are moving in the right direction, so she is fit and I am going to use her in e/bxactas, trifectas and supers.  You might say using Ausus is a bit contrarian, but I think it may be a bit of an esoteric stretch.  The 8 horse Zucchini Flower (4/1) will fill out the ticket for the exacta and top tri positions.  Others I like to fill out the bottom rungs of the super are the 9 Dame Marie (6/1), the 11 Funny Belle (15/1),  and the 12 Blushandbashful (12/1).

The G2 Fayette, Kee 9, back some familiar names from early in the year, but I'm going to a less familiar name to use as a key for this race.  The 3 Nikki's Sandcastle (8/1) never gives you a bad effort.  Not even when he was vanned off 3 races ago.  He has not yet won a race of this caliber, but he is as fast as any in here and will make a good horse to key off.  Other contenders to use are the 4 Newsdad (5/1), 6 Salto (7/2) who really took to the surface on his first attempt, and 8 Middie (5/1) who gets a red hot under the radar jockey trainer combination in Phillip Oliver and John Court.  The 5 Take Charge Indy (3/1) is sure to be skimming the rail with Borel aboard (I will shun the trite nickname) and may be a factor in the vertical exotics as well.  Remember, key the 3.

That's all I got.  I wanted to cover Laurel today as they have a nice card, but I'm running out of time. Follow me on Twitter as I will be making comments throughout the day.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Soupy State bred and Keeneland Recap

It's accountability time for Chalk Eating Weasel.  Let's see how I did.


In the 2nd race at Belmont I recommended Miss Valentine as a viable contender at a price and this turned out to be so as she went off at 11/1.  Willet was much the best winning by 9.25 lengths and Miss Valentine survived a 3 horse photo for place triggering a $182.50 exacta payout.  Fortunately for me, a friend whom I was watching the races with pointed out the merits of Willet, and I held a winning exacta ticket for this race.  I try to do better for you.  However, if you had Miss Valentine to place the payoff was 10.00 which is not too shabby.

As an aside, my purpose is not to tell you what or how to bet, but to point out some horses which may be overlooked by other bettors and publications to help bolster your bottom lines.  Directing you to a live horse which out performs its odds is a success.

Race 5 was won by the even money favorite, Weekend Hideaway.  My recommended play in this race was Meet the Mets.  The betting public made Meet the Mets 8/1.  Unfortunately, Meet the Mets ran like the Mets played for much of this season and finished up the tracks.  The 25/1 Saint Arthur managed to get up for place.  I had dismissed Saint Arthur on the theory that if he couldn't win at Finger Lakes he could not win at Belmont.  Might have to reassess that theory.

For the sixth race, The Hudson, I suggested that ML and underlayed betting favorite Saginaw could be had and urged you to look to Shrewd One (9/2) and Mine Over Matter (6/1).  The order of finish, Mine Over Matter, Saginaw, Shrewd One would have paid you $15.00 if you went with MOM in the win column.  The Exacta paid 31.00 and the Tri 74.00.

In the eight race I liked Kelli Got Frosty at the ML of 6/1.  I should have known any viable contender put out by Rudy Rodriguez would get over bet.  So I turned me attention to Gee Linz (6/1) and Agilon (7/2).  Bad for me as I went for the price with Gee Linz who finished last.  Agilon managed a 2nd place finish and Kelli Got Frosty the show, but I can't really consider this one a success on any level.

I covered 3 races at Keeneland.  What happened here?

Race 7

I'll leave it up to the reader if you consider this a success.  Here's what I wrote about the Place finisher Hey Leroy (17/1)," but the horse that is really interesting and will require some courage to play is the 20/1 #4 Hey Leroy."  The other contenders I wrote of in this race disappointed, but if you were able to over come your instinctive aversion to long priced ponies, Hey Leroy payed an opulent 16.60 to place.

Race 9 the G2 Raven Run

Turns out Gypsy Robin is the real deal, at least for this race.  Lotta Lovin (26/1) ran like a 26/1 should run.  You know, when you are looking for prices, you are going to miss once in a while.  So sorry about the whiff here, but I think I make up for it in race 10, my best bet of the day.

Race 10

Here's a refresher, "If the ML is close to accurate there is a real opportunity for a good price in this race. My best bet of the day is #8 Eddie Set Go at 8/1 in the ML. Unlike the DRF, my best bet is one likely to get you a price, not an odds on favorite. Eddie Set Go has the best Thorograph figures of any other horse in the race and should be favored IMHO. Eddie Set Go is a steady Eddie having run 7's or 8's in his last 6 races at PID. No guarantees but there is something to be said for consistency and, barring improvements in the competition, 7's or 8's will be good enough to win this race. Other contenders include long shots #3 Proud Jared (12/1) and #4 Smak Dab (30/1). Both these have run numbers that make them solid contenders for the minor awards setting up an excellent possibility of a high paying tri or super bet. Use them with the #12 Codoy (5/1) who draws the tough outside post. I would definitely key Eddie Set Go with these 3 in the vertical exotics."

Here's a recap of the race results

Eddie Set Go 13.20 7.60 5.00, Proud Jared 18.20 8.20, Codoy 4.20  Exacta 8-3 193.40, Trifecta 1296.40, If only Smak Dab, who was among the first flight for 3/4's could have stayed on to round out what would have been a monster super.

I rest my case, you be the judge

Saturday, October 20, 2012

Soupy State Breds and Keeneland Too!

By way of reintroduction I will state the goal of this Blog site.  Share handicapping ideas and selections with other  handicappers.  I will take a contrarian approach turning handicapping conventional wisdom on it's head when appropriate in order to find overlayed, winning plays.  I will not bore you by giving you picks that every other prognosticator or you yourself will come up with.  What would be the point of that?  I also will not bore you with tired cliches and overblown flowery prose as many writers of these types of articles, myself included, are prone to lapse into from time to time.  So let's get to it.

It's raining at Belmont (at least it was when I wrote this last night).  Isolated showers are predicted into the night.  They are off the turf and all but the highest quality races are probably off tomorrow.  The track takes time to dry so conditions will likely remain less that fast at least for the beginning of the day.

Race 2 is the Iroquois for a 150k purse 7f for 3yo and up fillies and mares

3 Agave Kiss is the ML favorite at 2/1.  Being trained by R. Rodriquez and ridden by Ramon, I'll take the under on those Post Time Odds.  Agave Kiss may be the best, but there are others which merit consideration and will be better prices.

7 Risky Rachel is 5/2 on the ML and may also be a little short in the price department come post time but she definitely has to be considered a threat to the favorite

The value in the race may be the 4 Miss Valentine who has been cycling towards her 3 year old top.  She is 8/1 on the ML and if the top 2 take excess money in the betting she could go off higher.  She will have to break through that top and run the best race of her life to win here.  She is well rested and, for what its worth, jockey Joel Rosario is 27% on off tracks with a positive ROI and the offspring of sire Afleet Alex win at 18% on off tracks.  Definitely use this one in the exotics if nothing else.

The 5th race at Belmont is the 7f BF Bongard 125k for 2yo NY breds

5/2 Weekend Hideaway is the ML favorite and is also cursed with the designation of being a DRF Best Bet.  Here you have to ask yourself if you really want to take a short priced 2yo in a full field of 14 where anything can and will happen.  Alternatives in this race would be the #2 In Harm's Way at 4/1, the # 7 Western Grit at 5/1 and my personal favorite at 8/1 the #12 Meet the Mets.  While the other 4 contenders will be surrounded by green runners, Meet the Mets has the best opportunity to stay out of trouble.  Improvement will be required, but with a little racing luck MtM might wind up being the trip horse for this race.

In Race 6, the 150k Hudson there can be a real opportunity as the 4/5 favorite #2 Saginaw has not shown a particular liking for the off track.  That said the 6 year old has been dominant, but not perfect, in 2012.  The only question is can he be beaten.  Take a good hard look at the #6 Shrewd One at 3/1 and #4 Mine Over Matter  at 6/1.

In race 8, take a look at the #6 Kelli Got Frosty at 6/1 on the ML.  This Filly is as good as any in here but may get no respect, Rudy Rodriguez not withstanding.  Others to consider in a wide open race are #3 Gee Linz and #2 Agilon.  Bettor beware as DRF does not consider either the 6 or the 3 as serious contenders.

I have not reviewed any turf races due to the uncertain condition of tomorrow's turf course.  Handicapping the turf races is pointless without knowing if the race is actually on the surface and which horses will be in or out once any changes to the surface are made.  I will 'cap those once the situation is clarified but may not have time to write about it here.  Follow me on Twitter for updates as the day progresses.

Now for Keeneland

Had to go deep on the Keeneland card to find what I think will be the best opportunities of the day.  Found 3 races to be of particular interest

Race 7 is a MSW 50k for 2yo's on the synthetic track.

I like the ML 9/2 colt #10 O T B Bob, but the horse that is really interesting and will require some courage to play is the 20/1 #4 Hey Leroy.  Leroy ran a figure in his first time out that is just a little below some of the shorter choices in the ML and figures to run better at 2nd asking.  There are others that also figure to move forward here such as the aforementioned O T B Bob, #6 Forward Thinker (4/1), and #2 Holden On (5/1).  Any of these are worthy choices in this wide open race.  Because the race is wide open, why not take a shot with a long price.  If you can't use Hey Leroy on top, at least make sure you have him on the ticket somewhere

Race 9 is the G2 Ravens Run for 3yo Fillies.

The ML favorites are #11 Gypsy Robin (3/1) trained by Wesley Ward and #10 Via Villagio (4/1) trained by Jerry Hollendorfer.  I will be looking to the inside for my prices and recommend going with #4 Lotta Lovin (8/1) trained by Michael Maker. Lotta Lovin appeared to be rounding up to a very good effort before throwing in a clunker at Parx last out.  I'm blaming the surface change.  If Lotta Lovin can duplicate her February effort at Turfway, which she was rounding back to before the detour, she is right in the hunt against her more heralded opposition.  I expect to be using her to win and in exactas with the faves.
 
Race 10 is a 10k Claimer for 3 and up

If the ML is close to accurate there is a real opportunity for a good price in this race.  My best bet of the day is #8 Eddie Set Go at 8/1 in the ML.  Unlike the DRF, my best bet is one likely to get you a price, not an odds on favorite.  Eddie Set Go has the best Thorograph figures of any other horse in the race and should be favored IMHO.  Eddie Set Go is a steady Eddie having run 7's or 8's in his last 6 races at PID.  No guarantees but there is something to be said for consistency and, barring improvements in the competition, 7's or 8's will be good enough to win this race.  Other contenders include long shots #3 Proud Jared (12/1) and #4 Smak Dab (30/1).  Both these have run numbers that make them solid contenders for the minor awards setting up an excellent possibility of a high paying tri or super bet.  Use them with the #12 Codoy (5/1) who draws the tough outside post.  I would definitely key Eddie Set Go with these 3 in the vertical exotics.

I do reserve the right to change my opinion as conditions warrant, so follow me on Twitter to get up to the minute updates.  I wish you the best of luck today.

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Stay Tuned for Keeneland and Belmont Selections This Saturday

I've held this space dormant long enough.  Come back Saturday as I'm sure there are going some interesting races to peruse from Keeneland, Belmont and maybe a few other tracks as well.