Not much to talk about last week's results. The scratch of Jersey Town in the Cigar upset all of my best laid plans. I still thought the filly, Groupie Doll, was beatable. Turns out she was, barely. I would've preferred to do the beating with Hymn Book. Picking Stay Thirsty to do the job required no inspiration and paid accordingly. Unfortunately, Hymn Book chose to take the day off too. The only difference is, at least Jersey Town called in sick.
The Pago Hop at Fair Grounds turned out somewhat better. Not as good as was hoped for but better. Zapper Belle was 10-1 in the morning line, but she couldn't fool the betting public who made her the 3rd choice at 4-1. Unfortunately for the betting public, the 2-1 favorite Drama Drama ran the entire race 3 to 5 wide, and 7-2 second choice Ire did not take to grass as well as I had hoped. While I'm on the topic, while Rosie Napravnik is as fine a jockey as there is right now and will certainly win more than her share of races, everything she is sitting on is getting over bet. Ire probably fit in that category as well. As expected, Soonerette led the way for 6 furlongs and spit the bit without finding the courage or the stamina to be a factor at the end.
All that said, if you had my top choices in vertical bets, you didn't fare too well. Hopefully you had a win ticket on Zapper Belle. Personally, I had moved to pick 4 mode by this part of the day and did not get hurt by the failure of Drama Drama and Ire to get the job done. I did get the pick 4, but with 3 favorites making up the other 3 legs and a mere 4-1 winning this leg, it was nothing to shout about.
This Saturday I'll stay with Fair Grounds. Most of the races are for cheap horses, so there may be some interesting opportunities arise there. Also I will be setting up shop at Gulfstream Park which will feature the Claiming Crown races on its opening day card. I have always found the Claiming Crown races to be quite inscrutable, so it should be an interesting and possibly very profitable day.
Check back on Saturday for Claiming Crown picks.
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Walkin' To New Orleans
Apologies to Fats Domino. This week I'm moving my handicapping visor to one of my favorite cities, New Orleans, where the bourbon flows freely, the horses are cheap and the women are...well.
The feature race on today's Fair Grounds card is the $75k Pago Hop for 3 year old fillies. The race features a highly competitive 8 horse field where it is possible to make a legitimate case for 7 of the 8 entries in the race with only Kazachka (30/1) appearing not to fit.
The morning line favorite is number 6 Drama Drama (3/1). Drama Drama turned in an excellent effort last out in the G2 Raven Run at Keeneland last October. A repeat of this effort will be good enough to win the Pago Hop which is why she is favored. But you see, the Raven Run was contested over the Poly track. Drama Drama has demonstrated turf ability and I will use her on my tickets, but I am going to look elsewhere for my key horse.
The number 1 filly, Ire (7/2), gets Rosie Napravnik who was just lights out at Fair Grounds last season. I remember remarking to friends last year that you bet against Rosie at peril to your bankroll at the Fair Grounds. Ire is another who has been running good enough to win this race, but she has never raced on grass. Ire will take a lot of money because of her connections and may be a factor in this race. I will use her on my tickets as well. I will not let Rosie hurt me at Fair Grounds, but I still need a key horse.
In this race I finally settled on the 8 Zapper Belle (6/1). Zapper Belle is another fillie with a good October effort at Keeneland. There is one key difference between races at Keeneland for Drama Drama and Zapper Belle. The Valley View (G3) was run on turf. Zapper held the lead in the stretch, but was unable to hold off the winner and place fillies. This race for Zapper paired her effort to a race at Arlington in early August and suggests to me that she is ready to move forward with a big effort.
Because this is a relatively short field of 8, 7 really if we discount the chances of Kazachka, it is tough to go any deeper for the exacta than 3 contenders. If you choose the trifecta route you might want to throw the 2 Soonerette (6/1) into the mix. Soonerette figures to go to the lead, so at least you will have one third of the trifecta for 7/8ths of the 1 mile race. And how often do these front runners find the courage to stay on and pick up a piece of the purse, even if they can't get the main prize?
In summation. Key number 8 Zapper Belle with #1 Ire and #6 Drama Drama. Hopefully we'll crush the race with a win and Zapper on top of an exacta with the other two contenders. I'll also box the 1 and 6 in a separate exacta. The plan being that if I am wrong about Zapper Belle, I will not be wrong about Drama Drama and Ire and at least get a consolation payoff to cover my overall investment.
The next race I want to discuss this week is the G1 Cigar at Aqueduct. Here we get yet another girl against the boys battle of the sexes hype. Like the Pago Hop we get another highly contentious race with a case to be made for nearly every entry. In this race the toss out is #2 Associate (20/1) though I will admit that an upset by Associate would not be as jaw dropping as an upset by Kalachtka in the Pago Hop.
I went about 3 different ways in this race before finally settling on how to approach this race. I'll just say up front that if Groupie Doll wins the race, as she very well may, then I will be totally wrong about this race. Everyone reading this knows what a great filly Groupie Doll has turned out to be this year and I won't bore you with information you already know as if I were bringing it to you for the first time. There is no reason the Groupster can't win this race except 1, she is coming off a huge effort 3 weeks ago at Santa Anita and 2, as good as she is, we have to acknowledge the theory of diminishing returns. In other words, she has shown us her best. It is highly improbable she will be better, therefore, it is highly probable she will not run as well this time as she did at Santa Anita. Some I know might call this bounce theory, I just call it common sense. Her 2nd best may still be good enough, but she is up against some hombres and there is a small question as to how she will handle the distance.
At first I wanted to go with Stay Thirsty (7/2). Stay Thirsty has the credentials to win this race, but, again, the distance is a concern. In this case, the distance may not be enough for Stay Thirsty to uncoil his best effort.
Next I considered Hymn Book (6/1). Hymn Book has the speed to win and finished 2nd in this race last year. But again, the mile does not seem to be his natural distance. Not that he can't win, but like Stay Thirsty, it may not be his optimal.
By now you may have guessed that I am looking for a true miler and in this race there is only one horse with the capability to win this race that fits the bill. Jersey Town (4/1) will be my huckleberry, key horse, for this race.
Jersey Town won this race in 2010 and in case you are one of those,"Yeah, but what have you done for me lately." types I will point out that 2 races back he won the G2 Kelso beating a field that included Shackleford, Tapizar, and To Honor and Serve (all recent G1 winners). Certainly Jersey Town has not only the credentials, but the current form to win a race of this caliber.
From a betting standpoint the short field is again prohibitive for going much deeper than exacta's. Play Jersey Town to win. Play a 3 horse exacta box with Jersey Town, Stay Thirsty, and Hymn Book. I am going to count on Groupie Doll getting hugely overplayed, but that may not happen. To add emphasis to my opinion, I will also key Jersey Town top and bottom with Stay Thirsty and Hymn Book. Finally, I will play a just in case Groupie Doll/Jersey Town exacta to cover myself in the event Groupie Doll lives up to the hype.
Last week was a tough week for the Weasel. In the If Winter Comes, I did call the audible to Beau Choix over Lubash based on the odds. Unfortunately Beau Choix was compromised at the start and was only able to get up for 3rd. I could live with that as just bad racing luck except that neither the winner or the place horses, Seal Cove and Abilio were on my radar. As a result every horse I used with the exception of Beau Choix finished out of the money. Swing and miss.
In the Commonwealth Turf at Chuchill Downs, I thought it was possible to play against the morning line favorite King David. Apparently, I was not alone in that appraisal and King David went of at 5/1. Chose Film Shot as my key in this race. Alas, was disappointed as my 8/1 key horse finished well out of the money in 11th. Did at least have some of the horses in the mix as the winner Lea brought home the bacon at a reasonable 5/2. Unfortunately, King David came on late to snatch the Lea/Lockout exacta from me. In this case 2 strikes and I'm out. Here's hoping I, and you, have better luck this time.
Remember to follow me on Twitter @cobb42 during the day as I may comment on potential spot plays as they come up.
The feature race on today's Fair Grounds card is the $75k Pago Hop for 3 year old fillies. The race features a highly competitive 8 horse field where it is possible to make a legitimate case for 7 of the 8 entries in the race with only Kazachka (30/1) appearing not to fit.
The morning line favorite is number 6 Drama Drama (3/1). Drama Drama turned in an excellent effort last out in the G2 Raven Run at Keeneland last October. A repeat of this effort will be good enough to win the Pago Hop which is why she is favored. But you see, the Raven Run was contested over the Poly track. Drama Drama has demonstrated turf ability and I will use her on my tickets, but I am going to look elsewhere for my key horse.
The number 1 filly, Ire (7/2), gets Rosie Napravnik who was just lights out at Fair Grounds last season. I remember remarking to friends last year that you bet against Rosie at peril to your bankroll at the Fair Grounds. Ire is another who has been running good enough to win this race, but she has never raced on grass. Ire will take a lot of money because of her connections and may be a factor in this race. I will use her on my tickets as well. I will not let Rosie hurt me at Fair Grounds, but I still need a key horse.
In this race I finally settled on the 8 Zapper Belle (6/1). Zapper Belle is another fillie with a good October effort at Keeneland. There is one key difference between races at Keeneland for Drama Drama and Zapper Belle. The Valley View (G3) was run on turf. Zapper held the lead in the stretch, but was unable to hold off the winner and place fillies. This race for Zapper paired her effort to a race at Arlington in early August and suggests to me that she is ready to move forward with a big effort.
Because this is a relatively short field of 8, 7 really if we discount the chances of Kazachka, it is tough to go any deeper for the exacta than 3 contenders. If you choose the trifecta route you might want to throw the 2 Soonerette (6/1) into the mix. Soonerette figures to go to the lead, so at least you will have one third of the trifecta for 7/8ths of the 1 mile race. And how often do these front runners find the courage to stay on and pick up a piece of the purse, even if they can't get the main prize?
In summation. Key number 8 Zapper Belle with #1 Ire and #6 Drama Drama. Hopefully we'll crush the race with a win and Zapper on top of an exacta with the other two contenders. I'll also box the 1 and 6 in a separate exacta. The plan being that if I am wrong about Zapper Belle, I will not be wrong about Drama Drama and Ire and at least get a consolation payoff to cover my overall investment.
The next race I want to discuss this week is the G1 Cigar at Aqueduct. Here we get yet another girl against the boys battle of the sexes hype. Like the Pago Hop we get another highly contentious race with a case to be made for nearly every entry. In this race the toss out is #2 Associate (20/1) though I will admit that an upset by Associate would not be as jaw dropping as an upset by Kalachtka in the Pago Hop.
I went about 3 different ways in this race before finally settling on how to approach this race. I'll just say up front that if Groupie Doll wins the race, as she very well may, then I will be totally wrong about this race. Everyone reading this knows what a great filly Groupie Doll has turned out to be this year and I won't bore you with information you already know as if I were bringing it to you for the first time. There is no reason the Groupster can't win this race except 1, she is coming off a huge effort 3 weeks ago at Santa Anita and 2, as good as she is, we have to acknowledge the theory of diminishing returns. In other words, she has shown us her best. It is highly improbable she will be better, therefore, it is highly probable she will not run as well this time as she did at Santa Anita. Some I know might call this bounce theory, I just call it common sense. Her 2nd best may still be good enough, but she is up against some hombres and there is a small question as to how she will handle the distance.
At first I wanted to go with Stay Thirsty (7/2). Stay Thirsty has the credentials to win this race, but, again, the distance is a concern. In this case, the distance may not be enough for Stay Thirsty to uncoil his best effort.
Next I considered Hymn Book (6/1). Hymn Book has the speed to win and finished 2nd in this race last year. But again, the mile does not seem to be his natural distance. Not that he can't win, but like Stay Thirsty, it may not be his optimal.
By now you may have guessed that I am looking for a true miler and in this race there is only one horse with the capability to win this race that fits the bill. Jersey Town (4/1) will be my huckleberry, key horse, for this race.
Jersey Town won this race in 2010 and in case you are one of those,"Yeah, but what have you done for me lately." types I will point out that 2 races back he won the G2 Kelso beating a field that included Shackleford, Tapizar, and To Honor and Serve (all recent G1 winners). Certainly Jersey Town has not only the credentials, but the current form to win a race of this caliber.
From a betting standpoint the short field is again prohibitive for going much deeper than exacta's. Play Jersey Town to win. Play a 3 horse exacta box with Jersey Town, Stay Thirsty, and Hymn Book. I am going to count on Groupie Doll getting hugely overplayed, but that may not happen. To add emphasis to my opinion, I will also key Jersey Town top and bottom with Stay Thirsty and Hymn Book. Finally, I will play a just in case Groupie Doll/Jersey Town exacta to cover myself in the event Groupie Doll lives up to the hype.
Last week was a tough week for the Weasel. In the If Winter Comes, I did call the audible to Beau Choix over Lubash based on the odds. Unfortunately Beau Choix was compromised at the start and was only able to get up for 3rd. I could live with that as just bad racing luck except that neither the winner or the place horses, Seal Cove and Abilio were on my radar. As a result every horse I used with the exception of Beau Choix finished out of the money. Swing and miss.
In the Commonwealth Turf at Chuchill Downs, I thought it was possible to play against the morning line favorite King David. Apparently, I was not alone in that appraisal and King David went of at 5/1. Chose Film Shot as my key in this race. Alas, was disappointed as my 8/1 key horse finished well out of the money in 11th. Did at least have some of the horses in the mix as the winner Lea brought home the bacon at a reasonable 5/2. Unfortunately, King David came on late to snatch the Lea/Lockout exacta from me. In this case 2 strikes and I'm out. Here's hoping I, and you, have better luck this time.
Remember to follow me on Twitter @cobb42 during the day as I may comment on potential spot plays as they come up.
Saturday, November 17, 2012
Whoa Oh, Oh, Oh, Oh...Aqueduh-uh-uh-uh-uh-uct
Sitting by the home stretch,
Eyeing little fillies making well placed bets.
Looking for the overlays,
Ink-stained fingers turning tattered pages.
Oh Aqueduct.
My apologies to Ian Anderson.
Ok, so I didn't have time to post last week. I mean, its not like your paying for this great analysis or anything are you?
Time for the November racing doldrums. The Breeders' Cup is passed and the big Winter tracks have yet to open. Fortunately, Gulfstream Park will open on December 1st. GP is my home track and I expect to have another great wagering season and will bring you along for the ride with some great picks. Fair Grounds opens on Thanksgiving day. Fair Grounds is one of my favorite tracks to play. Sometimes I think my Cajun brethren just get band wagon crazy on horses leaving perfectly viable contenders way overlaid. There will be prices and payoffs to have, and I intend to get my share.
Moving Aqueduct, where there is a nice card for a late fall day, I want to talk about the 6th race the 80k If Winter Comes stakes. Soldat, #5 in your racing program, is the 3/1 morning line favorite. Soldat has not races since March and that was off another 10 month layoff from his 3 year old season. Horses coming off a layoff do not deter me. It is an old racing common wisdom that horses coming off long layoffs should be avoided. I believe that old saw is no longer as applicable as it was 10 or 20 years ago. So many things have changed in equine science with regard to therapies, medicine and training techniques over the years, that I am of the belief that horses, in the right hands, can come off a layoff and win top quality races. Kiaran McLaughlin is certainly the right hands.
All that being said, I believe there is an opportunity here to play against the ML favorite who has run 1 race since May, 2011. #2 Lubash (6/1) will start for Christophe Clement. Lubash consistently runs his race and will make an excellent horse to key with. In his last race, Lubash disappointed his backers as the race favorite finishing 4th. According to the track notes, Lubash fought the bit, was rank, was eased back, had alter course. A troubled trip to say the least. Here's to the belief that whatever was bothering Lubash will be cured today and he will run back to his normal numbers.
To be used with Lubash will be #3 Beau Choix (5/1). Beau Choix is another that is more machine than horse. In other words a very consistent sort. Should Beau Choix go to the post at higher odds than Lubash, the possibility of calling an audible and using him at the key should be considered.
Another to use will be #4 Queen'splatekitten (7/2). A very capable Kitten's Joy colt trained by Todd (is a god) Pletcher. QPK will surely get overbet, as all of Todd's entries are, but should certainly be used as he rates to be right there and a win would not be a shocker.
Finally I cannot ignore ML favorite Soldat. Soldate has run well off long layoffs in the past and a win here is certainly not out of the question. I'm not going to bet on it, but Soldat cannot be tossed away and will have to be used in the vertical exotics just to keep thing covered.
So there you have it. Key either Lubash or Beau Choix with QPK and Soldat in exactas, Trifecta's, and supers with the others.
Chuchill runs one of their twilight cards today which may be popular with the locals but plays havoc with the Chalk Eating Weasel who is usually well into his 2nd fine Bourbon of the night by the time the good races come up. I particularly liked the race 7, the G3 Commonwealth Stakes on Turf.
Race 7 is wide open with no clear favorite, so if we can get this right, we will get paid!. I am not going to use the ML Favorite #11 King Davd (4/1) even though he has a great line. I prefer the #1 horse Film Shot (8/1) as my key horse in this race. Film shot also has a very nice line coming into this race and looks to improve of a very good effort at Hawthorne. Film Shot breaks from Post 1 and should be able to get another ground saving trip for us.
To be used with Film Shot will be the #6 Lea(5/1) ridden by BC Classic winner B.J. Hernandez. Lea is another consistent runner who figures to be near the front when the field reaches the wire. Rounding out the vertical wagers will be #9 Excaper (10/1) and #14 Lockout (8/1). If any two or 3 of these can run as they've been runnning all year and the favorite King David regresses even a little off his recent top, we may have a very generous payoff from this race.
I am also following Woodbine and Delta downs today, so watch for tweets from @cobb42 for any spot plays I come up with from these two tracks as well as AQU and CD.
Good luck.
Eyeing little fillies making well placed bets.
Looking for the overlays,
Ink-stained fingers turning tattered pages.
Oh Aqueduct.
My apologies to Ian Anderson.
Ok, so I didn't have time to post last week. I mean, its not like your paying for this great analysis or anything are you?
Time for the November racing doldrums. The Breeders' Cup is passed and the big Winter tracks have yet to open. Fortunately, Gulfstream Park will open on December 1st. GP is my home track and I expect to have another great wagering season and will bring you along for the ride with some great picks. Fair Grounds opens on Thanksgiving day. Fair Grounds is one of my favorite tracks to play. Sometimes I think my Cajun brethren just get band wagon crazy on horses leaving perfectly viable contenders way overlaid. There will be prices and payoffs to have, and I intend to get my share.
Moving Aqueduct, where there is a nice card for a late fall day, I want to talk about the 6th race the 80k If Winter Comes stakes. Soldat, #5 in your racing program, is the 3/1 morning line favorite. Soldat has not races since March and that was off another 10 month layoff from his 3 year old season. Horses coming off a layoff do not deter me. It is an old racing common wisdom that horses coming off long layoffs should be avoided. I believe that old saw is no longer as applicable as it was 10 or 20 years ago. So many things have changed in equine science with regard to therapies, medicine and training techniques over the years, that I am of the belief that horses, in the right hands, can come off a layoff and win top quality races. Kiaran McLaughlin is certainly the right hands.
All that being said, I believe there is an opportunity here to play against the ML favorite who has run 1 race since May, 2011. #2 Lubash (6/1) will start for Christophe Clement. Lubash consistently runs his race and will make an excellent horse to key with. In his last race, Lubash disappointed his backers as the race favorite finishing 4th. According to the track notes, Lubash fought the bit, was rank, was eased back, had alter course. A troubled trip to say the least. Here's to the belief that whatever was bothering Lubash will be cured today and he will run back to his normal numbers.
To be used with Lubash will be #3 Beau Choix (5/1). Beau Choix is another that is more machine than horse. In other words a very consistent sort. Should Beau Choix go to the post at higher odds than Lubash, the possibility of calling an audible and using him at the key should be considered.
Another to use will be #4 Queen'splatekitten (7/2). A very capable Kitten's Joy colt trained by Todd (is a god) Pletcher. QPK will surely get overbet, as all of Todd's entries are, but should certainly be used as he rates to be right there and a win would not be a shocker.
Finally I cannot ignore ML favorite Soldat. Soldate has run well off long layoffs in the past and a win here is certainly not out of the question. I'm not going to bet on it, but Soldat cannot be tossed away and will have to be used in the vertical exotics just to keep thing covered.
So there you have it. Key either Lubash or Beau Choix with QPK and Soldat in exactas, Trifecta's, and supers with the others.
Chuchill runs one of their twilight cards today which may be popular with the locals but plays havoc with the Chalk Eating Weasel who is usually well into his 2nd fine Bourbon of the night by the time the good races come up. I particularly liked the race 7, the G3 Commonwealth Stakes on Turf.
Race 7 is wide open with no clear favorite, so if we can get this right, we will get paid!. I am not going to use the ML Favorite #11 King Davd (4/1) even though he has a great line. I prefer the #1 horse Film Shot (8/1) as my key horse in this race. Film shot also has a very nice line coming into this race and looks to improve of a very good effort at Hawthorne. Film Shot breaks from Post 1 and should be able to get another ground saving trip for us.
To be used with Film Shot will be the #6 Lea(5/1) ridden by BC Classic winner B.J. Hernandez. Lea is another consistent runner who figures to be near the front when the field reaches the wire. Rounding out the vertical wagers will be #9 Excaper (10/1) and #14 Lockout (8/1). If any two or 3 of these can run as they've been runnning all year and the favorite King David regresses even a little off his recent top, we may have a very generous payoff from this race.
I am also following Woodbine and Delta downs today, so watch for tweets from @cobb42 for any spot plays I come up with from these two tracks as well as AQU and CD.
Good luck.
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Breeders' Cup Hangover
www.cewreport.com
@cobb42
Recovering from major BC hangover today (this was originally written on Sunday). What a great 2 days of racing. Profitable as well. You will not be bored with long winded recaps If that is what you wanted to read you have had plenty of opportunity or read reports from more sources then I could possibly enumerate. Instead, a few brief comments and then on to the important stuff...how my selections worked out
Firstly, congrats to both Little Mike and Trinniberg. Little Mike is a personal favorite of mine since he violates all the conventional rules racing on Turf. People always say he won't get away with it this time, yet he almost always does. The biggest surprise about Little Mike yesterday was that he didn't do it gate to wire for once. A new dimension to his running style will make this gelding even more difficult to handle next year.
I did not have Trinniberg at all in this race as I thought he might have tailed off some as the year wore on. If I have to be wrong, I want it to be about horses like Trinniberg, a local S. Florida horse that got his start here. If you want success stories about immigrants coming to America, you need look not further than the owner/trainer connections of Trinniberg. It is quite a story.
Groupie Doll and Wise Dan both made it look easy. Too bad the connections of Frankel, touted by some to be the greatest race horse alive, didn't have the stones to come to America and meet our champion. For my money Wise Dan has earned the title greatest race horse alive for his consistency, soundness, versatility, and the fact that he always makes it look so easy.
And of course the Classic was another for the ages. This is the 3rd year in a row that Mike Smith has been a factor in the outcome of my Classic wager. Two years ago I'm screming at the monitor urging on Blame to hold off the late charging Zenyatta (ridden, of course, by Mike Smith), last year I was yelling at the track, as I was in attendance, for Game On Dude to hold off the late charging Drosselmeyer (to no avail). And this year I yelling at my television for Fort Larned to outlast a very game Mucho Macho Man. To paraphrase a well known cliche,"Sometimes you get Smitty, and sometimes Smitty gets you."
In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf I didn't see George Vancouver coming. Upon post mortem review of the sheets I should have given him more consideration. Noble Tune and Dundonell managed 2nd and 4th respectively, but this race is one for the loss column.
The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint was not one of my shining moments. I was personally happy for Jim Rome as his Mizdirection ran a great race for the win; however, none of the other contenders really threatened. I think the lesson to learn from this race for next year is to look for the locally based Cali horses and jockeys who are familiar with racing on this unique course.
One might think it is time to despair, and it would be had not Friday been such a strong day. But yes, the Classic is still to come and The Weasel managed to come back strong in the weekend get out race the BC Classic. It was the perfect set up as we had a horse who already proven against many in this race and the very great advantage of connections who are not exactly household names among the casual race going public who only go to bet on the big days. It's these people who should be donating to the bankrolls of us grinders. If you can't take advantage of their uninformed opinions and herd-like mentalities you should find another hobby.
With the bulk of the wagering going to the head line horse Game On Dude (1.3-1) prices were spread out generously among the other contenders. All we had to do was get the right one home on top and so we did with Fort Larned at (9-1). Other contenders Mucho Macho Man and Flat Out were also mildly overlayed at 6-1 each. Of course we also used Game On Dude. I mean, we aren't stupid, man. If the Gamester is on his game today, we at least want to get something back for our effort. The recommended key, Fort Larned broke well and led every step of the way despite the best efforts of Mucho Macho Man and Mike Smith, made the day, and saved our gains from the previous day.
Ft. Larned paid 20.80 to win and 9.80 to place. The exacta paid a delightful $62.70 for a mere dollar and the trifecta, if you went that deep, with Flat Out coming in third paid a nice $306.90 for the one dollar.
I really hope someone out there is benefitting from these selections up to now as I have done quite well for any readers out there since beginning my come back. If you have benefitted anyway from this effort, I'd love to here from you. Show The Weasel some love.
I don't know yet which tracks I'll be tackling this weekend but you can be sure I'll be trying to think outside the box, buck the conventional wisdom and come up with a winner or two at a price worth playing. Together, let's take over the world!
@cobb42
Recovering from major BC hangover today (this was originally written on Sunday). What a great 2 days of racing. Profitable as well. You will not be bored with long winded recaps If that is what you wanted to read you have had plenty of opportunity or read reports from more sources then I could possibly enumerate. Instead, a few brief comments and then on to the important stuff...how my selections worked out
Firstly, congrats to both Little Mike and Trinniberg. Little Mike is a personal favorite of mine since he violates all the conventional rules racing on Turf. People always say he won't get away with it this time, yet he almost always does. The biggest surprise about Little Mike yesterday was that he didn't do it gate to wire for once. A new dimension to his running style will make this gelding even more difficult to handle next year.
I did not have Trinniberg at all in this race as I thought he might have tailed off some as the year wore on. If I have to be wrong, I want it to be about horses like Trinniberg, a local S. Florida horse that got his start here. If you want success stories about immigrants coming to America, you need look not further than the owner/trainer connections of Trinniberg. It is quite a story.
Groupie Doll and Wise Dan both made it look easy. Too bad the connections of Frankel, touted by some to be the greatest race horse alive, didn't have the stones to come to America and meet our champion. For my money Wise Dan has earned the title greatest race horse alive for his consistency, soundness, versatility, and the fact that he always makes it look so easy.
And of course the Classic was another for the ages. This is the 3rd year in a row that Mike Smith has been a factor in the outcome of my Classic wager. Two years ago I'm screming at the monitor urging on Blame to hold off the late charging Zenyatta (ridden, of course, by Mike Smith), last year I was yelling at the track, as I was in attendance, for Game On Dude to hold off the late charging Drosselmeyer (to no avail). And this year I yelling at my television for Fort Larned to outlast a very game Mucho Macho Man. To paraphrase a well known cliche,"Sometimes you get Smitty, and sometimes Smitty gets you."
In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf I didn't see George Vancouver coming. Upon post mortem review of the sheets I should have given him more consideration. Noble Tune and Dundonell managed 2nd and 4th respectively, but this race is one for the loss column.
The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint was not one of my shining moments. I was personally happy for Jim Rome as his Mizdirection ran a great race for the win; however, none of the other contenders really threatened. I think the lesson to learn from this race for next year is to look for the locally based Cali horses and jockeys who are familiar with racing on this unique course.
One might think it is time to despair, and it would be had not Friday been such a strong day. But yes, the Classic is still to come and The Weasel managed to come back strong in the weekend get out race the BC Classic. It was the perfect set up as we had a horse who already proven against many in this race and the very great advantage of connections who are not exactly household names among the casual race going public who only go to bet on the big days. It's these people who should be donating to the bankrolls of us grinders. If you can't take advantage of their uninformed opinions and herd-like mentalities you should find another hobby.
With the bulk of the wagering going to the head line horse Game On Dude (1.3-1) prices were spread out generously among the other contenders. All we had to do was get the right one home on top and so we did with Fort Larned at (9-1). Other contenders Mucho Macho Man and Flat Out were also mildly overlayed at 6-1 each. Of course we also used Game On Dude. I mean, we aren't stupid, man. If the Gamester is on his game today, we at least want to get something back for our effort. The recommended key, Fort Larned broke well and led every step of the way despite the best efforts of Mucho Macho Man and Mike Smith, made the day, and saved our gains from the previous day.
Ft. Larned paid 20.80 to win and 9.80 to place. The exacta paid a delightful $62.70 for a mere dollar and the trifecta, if you went that deep, with Flat Out coming in third paid a nice $306.90 for the one dollar.
I really hope someone out there is benefitting from these selections up to now as I have done quite well for any readers out there since beginning my come back. If you have benefitted anyway from this effort, I'd love to here from you. Show The Weasel some love.
I don't know yet which tracks I'll be tackling this weekend but you can be sure I'll be trying to think outside the box, buck the conventional wisdom and come up with a winner or two at a price worth playing. Together, let's take over the world!
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Breeder's Cup Day 2
www.cewreport.blogspot.com
@cobb42
In my last I wrote in reference to the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, " Whatever you do, use some discretion and do not take a short price in this race." That statement could almost be univerally applied to all of Friday's BC races as only Royal Delta and Beholder came in under $10.00 for the win. Today should be no different.
First let's look at Friday's action with regard to my predictions.
In the BC Juvi. Fillies Turf. I wanted to use Spring Venture as the key horse, but after the TVG panel of "experts" all jumped on this horse I despaired getting a square price on her. Falling a little for the early hype, I thought that Sky Lantern might be a viable alternative if she should somehow eluded favoritism. Sky Lantern turned out to be the favorite and Spring Venture the 2nd choice at 5-2 and 7-2 respectively.
I followed my own advice and did not accept short prices in this race. I Tweeted an audible and suggested using the #4 Flotilla keyed with Whatsdachances, Spring Venture, and Flashy Ways. History will record that Flotilla finished ahead of Whatsdachances triggering a 24.80 win price and a $85.50 (for a dollar) exacta. This race is a classic example of letting the odds make the betting decision.
For the BC F&M Turf the recomendation was #2 Zagora keying her with #8 Nahrain, #12 In Lingerie and #9 Marketing Mix refusing to believe the hype with regard to The Fugue and Ridasiyna. Javier Castellano was brilliant on Zagora saving ground for much of the trip and swinging her out at just the right moment to win going away while Marketing Mix held off late running The Fugue to grab 2nd place. The win paid $18.40 and the dollar exacta returned $47.90.
Two races covered, two wins and exacta payoffs, not bad. Before R7 I Tweeted that I thought Beholder was overlayed at 9-2 and suggested to using him with Executive Privelege and Kauai Katie. Beholder paid $3.90 to win and the dollar exacta $13.30. I also Tweeted that Grace Hall in the Ladies Classic appeared to be a huge overlay as she finally settled at 14-1 final odds. Royal Delta won the race at a buck seventy to 1. No surprise there while Grace Hall finished a non threatening 4th. Just goes to show you can't win them all. The real surprise in this race, to me, was the disappearance of the 2nd choice Awesome Feather who clearly did not run her usual race. Questing was pulled up and vanned off. I remember hearing people around me noticing she was sweating excessively did not look good in the post parade. Sounds like another horse that should not have been allowed to go to post.
All of that is yesterday's news, what about today?
The Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf looks to be wide open with not clear morning line favorite. I will be looking to use the 9 Noble Tune, 13 Know More, 2 Artigiano, and 6 Dundonnel listed in my order of preference. In this race I will use one of these as a key horse, but I will let the odds make that decision for me. Not a real clear prognostication, but if you really need someone to hold your hand through this one, follow me on Twitter.
The Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint is another pick 'em race with no dominant contender to soak up a lot of wagering money. This race and the BC Juvi Turf promise to have gigantic mutuel payouts as a result of the public's indecision. Eventually the herd will settle on some one depending on how the betting goes and who the "pros" are touting. Our job will be to steer our path clear of the herd and I think we can do that with the 8 Great Attack (10-1), 5 Next Question (10-1), 9 Bridgetown (a very luke-warm 9-2 ML favorite) and 11 Mizdirection (20-1). Again, in this race, the odds will make the final decision for us and I will Tweet the key before the race. More incentive to follow me on Twitter.
In the Breeder's Cup Classic, everybody will be talking about the 5 Game on Dude (9-5), 2 Flat Out (5-1), and 11 Mucho Macho Man (8-1). In fact I will be using these very horses. But the horse I think may get over-looked in this race is the 4 Fort Larned (5-1). I predict his post time odds will be higher due to the better known names in the race like Ron The Greek, To Honor and Serve, and Richard's Kid. It will also help that trainer Ian Wilkes and jockey B.J. Hernandez are not exactly household names to the casual twice a year racing fan. Fort Larned has the perfect running line to use as a key horse being a very consistent and honest horse who also happens to be competitive with the others in this race. So....just to be clear, Fort Larned will be the key to use with the other 3 mentioned in this race.
That's it for today. Hopefully, yesterday's performance can be duplicated today as that would make for a very successful BC weekend. Follow me on Twitter @cobb42 as it has been demonstrated that audible's can and may be called. Good luck to all and mostly good luck to the jockey and the horses. Here's to hoping they all come back healthy and sound.
@cobb42
In my last I wrote in reference to the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, " Whatever you do, use some discretion and do not take a short price in this race." That statement could almost be univerally applied to all of Friday's BC races as only Royal Delta and Beholder came in under $10.00 for the win. Today should be no different.
First let's look at Friday's action with regard to my predictions.
In the BC Juvi. Fillies Turf. I wanted to use Spring Venture as the key horse, but after the TVG panel of "experts" all jumped on this horse I despaired getting a square price on her. Falling a little for the early hype, I thought that Sky Lantern might be a viable alternative if she should somehow eluded favoritism. Sky Lantern turned out to be the favorite and Spring Venture the 2nd choice at 5-2 and 7-2 respectively.
I followed my own advice and did not accept short prices in this race. I Tweeted an audible and suggested using the #4 Flotilla keyed with Whatsdachances, Spring Venture, and Flashy Ways. History will record that Flotilla finished ahead of Whatsdachances triggering a 24.80 win price and a $85.50 (for a dollar) exacta. This race is a classic example of letting the odds make the betting decision.
For the BC F&M Turf the recomendation was #2 Zagora keying her with #8 Nahrain, #12 In Lingerie and #9 Marketing Mix refusing to believe the hype with regard to The Fugue and Ridasiyna. Javier Castellano was brilliant on Zagora saving ground for much of the trip and swinging her out at just the right moment to win going away while Marketing Mix held off late running The Fugue to grab 2nd place. The win paid $18.40 and the dollar exacta returned $47.90.
Two races covered, two wins and exacta payoffs, not bad. Before R7 I Tweeted that I thought Beholder was overlayed at 9-2 and suggested to using him with Executive Privelege and Kauai Katie. Beholder paid $3.90 to win and the dollar exacta $13.30. I also Tweeted that Grace Hall in the Ladies Classic appeared to be a huge overlay as she finally settled at 14-1 final odds. Royal Delta won the race at a buck seventy to 1. No surprise there while Grace Hall finished a non threatening 4th. Just goes to show you can't win them all. The real surprise in this race, to me, was the disappearance of the 2nd choice Awesome Feather who clearly did not run her usual race. Questing was pulled up and vanned off. I remember hearing people around me noticing she was sweating excessively did not look good in the post parade. Sounds like another horse that should not have been allowed to go to post.
All of that is yesterday's news, what about today?
The Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf looks to be wide open with not clear morning line favorite. I will be looking to use the 9 Noble Tune, 13 Know More, 2 Artigiano, and 6 Dundonnel listed in my order of preference. In this race I will use one of these as a key horse, but I will let the odds make that decision for me. Not a real clear prognostication, but if you really need someone to hold your hand through this one, follow me on Twitter.
The Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint is another pick 'em race with no dominant contender to soak up a lot of wagering money. This race and the BC Juvi Turf promise to have gigantic mutuel payouts as a result of the public's indecision. Eventually the herd will settle on some one depending on how the betting goes and who the "pros" are touting. Our job will be to steer our path clear of the herd and I think we can do that with the 8 Great Attack (10-1), 5 Next Question (10-1), 9 Bridgetown (a very luke-warm 9-2 ML favorite) and 11 Mizdirection (20-1). Again, in this race, the odds will make the final decision for us and I will Tweet the key before the race. More incentive to follow me on Twitter.
In the Breeder's Cup Classic, everybody will be talking about the 5 Game on Dude (9-5), 2 Flat Out (5-1), and 11 Mucho Macho Man (8-1). In fact I will be using these very horses. But the horse I think may get over-looked in this race is the 4 Fort Larned (5-1). I predict his post time odds will be higher due to the better known names in the race like Ron The Greek, To Honor and Serve, and Richard's Kid. It will also help that trainer Ian Wilkes and jockey B.J. Hernandez are not exactly household names to the casual twice a year racing fan. Fort Larned has the perfect running line to use as a key horse being a very consistent and honest horse who also happens to be competitive with the others in this race. So....just to be clear, Fort Larned will be the key to use with the other 3 mentioned in this race.
That's it for today. Hopefully, yesterday's performance can be duplicated today as that would make for a very successful BC weekend. Follow me on Twitter @cobb42 as it has been demonstrated that audible's can and may be called. Good luck to all and mostly good luck to the jockey and the horses. Here's to hoping they all come back healthy and sound.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Breeder's Cup 2012--Day 1
www.cewreport.blogspot.com
@cobb42
Finally, the much ballyhooed and hyped Breeder's Cup weekend returns. I love the Breeder's Cup races although from a handicapping perspective I often find it very difficult to separate contenders and the entries are, for the most part usually very good. Because of that there is no reason to settle for short prices in these races.
I would like to give a special thanks to the folks at Thoro-Graph for the great and dedicated work they have performed in getting the Thoro-Graph sheets online under what must be very trying circumstances due to hurricane Sandy. Their office in Manhattan is like 2 or 3 blocks from the Hudson River near Battery Park, an area which was hit by a record setting storm surge. Speaking as a 20+ year resident of coastal south Florida, I have certainly ridden out more severe hurricanes in terms of wind, but the storm surge is obviously the story of Sandra, not to mention the blizzard in higher elevations like West Virginia. Blizzards are one thing I don't have to worry about here in the Miami area.
Meanwhile on to the business at hand, mainly finding some unique opportunities that maybe you won't find elsewhere.
I was a little underwhelmed with Friday's BC card. Not with the quality of the fields, but my ability to come up with any creative ideas as the ML for the most part seemed to fall in line with my own thinking.
The BC Fillies Turf for 2yo is one race where there may be an opportunity with a large and evenly matched field. There is nothing wrong with the 3/1 ML favorite #3 Sky Lantern, but in this big field of unpredictable 2yo's I'm willing to take a shot against her. #5 Spring Venture (5/1) is undefeated in 3 starts with figures on turf just a little less than Sky Lantern's. I would recomend making this confirmed winner a key horse using the #6 Watsdachance (4/1), #13 Flashy Ways (10/1), and the improving #4 Flotilla (8/1). The field large enough that you may be able to include Sky Lantern in the mix as well, that is assuming the odds follow the ML. This is clearly a race where you have to let the odds make your final decision for you. Should Sky Lantern, for some reason not be the betting favorite, elevate her in your ticket construction. Whatever you do, use some discretion and do not take a short price in this race.
In the 8th race on Friday, the BC Filly and Mare Turf. I am not impressed with the ML favorites #4 The Fugue (7/2) and #10 Ridasiyna. I would prefer to use the #2 Zagora(8/1) keying her with #8 Nahrain (6/1), #12 In Lingerie (12/1) and #9 Marketing Mix (9/2). I like any of these better than the 2 ML favorites. Another large field, and another potentially large pay out if I'm right about the ML favorites.
I'm sure there will be other opportunities to come up in the day. I will also be trying my luck at Churchill Downs and Woodbine tomorrow and will try to Tweet out any spur of the moment ideas I come up with.
Good Luck and enjoy the racing this weekend, it doesn't get any better than this.
@cobb42
Finally, the much ballyhooed and hyped Breeder's Cup weekend returns. I love the Breeder's Cup races although from a handicapping perspective I often find it very difficult to separate contenders and the entries are, for the most part usually very good. Because of that there is no reason to settle for short prices in these races.
I would like to give a special thanks to the folks at Thoro-Graph for the great and dedicated work they have performed in getting the Thoro-Graph sheets online under what must be very trying circumstances due to hurricane Sandy. Their office in Manhattan is like 2 or 3 blocks from the Hudson River near Battery Park, an area which was hit by a record setting storm surge. Speaking as a 20+ year resident of coastal south Florida, I have certainly ridden out more severe hurricanes in terms of wind, but the storm surge is obviously the story of Sandra, not to mention the blizzard in higher elevations like West Virginia. Blizzards are one thing I don't have to worry about here in the Miami area.
Meanwhile on to the business at hand, mainly finding some unique opportunities that maybe you won't find elsewhere.
I was a little underwhelmed with Friday's BC card. Not with the quality of the fields, but my ability to come up with any creative ideas as the ML for the most part seemed to fall in line with my own thinking.
The BC Fillies Turf for 2yo is one race where there may be an opportunity with a large and evenly matched field. There is nothing wrong with the 3/1 ML favorite #3 Sky Lantern, but in this big field of unpredictable 2yo's I'm willing to take a shot against her. #5 Spring Venture (5/1) is undefeated in 3 starts with figures on turf just a little less than Sky Lantern's. I would recomend making this confirmed winner a key horse using the #6 Watsdachance (4/1), #13 Flashy Ways (10/1), and the improving #4 Flotilla (8/1). The field large enough that you may be able to include Sky Lantern in the mix as well, that is assuming the odds follow the ML. This is clearly a race where you have to let the odds make your final decision for you. Should Sky Lantern, for some reason not be the betting favorite, elevate her in your ticket construction. Whatever you do, use some discretion and do not take a short price in this race.
In the 8th race on Friday, the BC Filly and Mare Turf. I am not impressed with the ML favorites #4 The Fugue (7/2) and #10 Ridasiyna. I would prefer to use the #2 Zagora(8/1) keying her with #8 Nahrain (6/1), #12 In Lingerie (12/1) and #9 Marketing Mix (9/2). I like any of these better than the 2 ML favorites. Another large field, and another potentially large pay out if I'm right about the ML favorites.
I'm sure there will be other opportunities to come up in the day. I will also be trying my luck at Churchill Downs and Woodbine tomorrow and will try to Tweet out any spur of the moment ideas I come up with.
Good Luck and enjoy the racing this weekend, it doesn't get any better than this.
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