Coming back after what was a brilliant Claiming Crown Championship day put on at Gulfstream Park. I personally congratulate GP on getting and pulling off those races in exemplary form. Last Saturday was a tough act to follow, so it is natural to feel a little let down about today's card at GP. The feature race is the G3 Sugar Swirl which drew the Breeders' Cup Fillies and Mares Sprint runner up Dust and Diamonds. Looks to be the one to beat here and I will not try to beat her. Unfortunately, her prescence will pollute the Pick 4 as everyone will be using her, as will I, as a single.
Going through today's GP card I found myself landing on a lot of Morning Line favorites which is never a good thing. I do think in the first race, a 15k claimer for 2yo fillies, there may be a chance to take a stand against a filly that rates to get a lot of betting action from the public, the #4 Ju Ju Eyeballs. It will be interesting to watch the tote board on this one and see if she gets any early money from the barn. What makes her interesting is she won her 2nd Maiden race at Monmouth on June 1, ran 4th of 7 in the My Dear Stakes for 150K at Woodbine on June 24, then was put on the shelf until now only to be dropped into a relatively low level claiming race. If Ju Ju Eyeballs runs back to her early form she crushes the field, end of story. However, I think the Wesley Ward barn must have given up on her for a reason. She may still have enough in the tank to beat this field, but I think there is enough reason to look elsewhere.
#6 Distinction Lady A (6-1) already has 2 wins under belt and looks set up to make a forward move off of her last race. I will use her as the key horse in the race. #8 Heir To A Slew (8-1) made a little improvement in her last outing. The kind of improvement which suggests to me she is beginning to get the idea of racing. This will be h,er first try against winners but I think she merits a spot on the exotic tickets. #7 Viva's Party Girl (4-1) is another Ward entry. She won at first asking on June 1 in maiden claimer at Churchill. She's been off since then, but you can make the case that she is likely to have improved with time and maturity from 6 months prior, and, unlike Ju Ju Eyeballs, you can't say that they are placing her in this race because they have given up on her. This race is the type she belongs in.
There you have it. I will key the 6 with the 7 and 8 in the exacta pool as well as put something to win on her. I will also hedge a little bit with Ju Ju Eyeballs on top of 6,7, and 8 just in case. If I can keep the ML favorite out of the exacta the payoff should be pretty nice. If Ju Ju runs back to previous form, I should, at least, recapture some of my investment.
P4's P5's and P6's for today's GP Card (note the preferred choice is listed first, after that...)
P4 Starting R2: 1,5,6/9,3,4,8/1,3,7/2,4,6,7
P6 Starting R5: 2,4,6,7/10,4,5/5,1,3/3,1,4,6,10,11/6/6,8,11
P5 Starting R6: 10,4,5/5,1,3/3,1,4,6,10,11/6/6,8,11
P4 Starting R7: 5,1,3/3,1,4,6,10,11/6/6,8,11
If you play cave man style, you don't need my advice. If you use the DRF Ticket Formulator, In Race 6 I will use the 2,4,7 as "A" horses and In Race 8 I will use the 1 and 3 as "A" horses. All others are "B". Note that I will single the 6 Dust and Diamonds in the 9th so everything will hinge on her.
At Fair Grounds it is Louisianna Champions Day set aside for La. Breds. Such days always bring surprises and I'm sure today will be no different. But, I think the best spot opportunity may come in a Maiden race for La. bred 2 yo fillies in race 6.
#9 Shanghai Princess (8/1) is trained by Bret Calhoun and ridden by Rosie Napravnik, so I was a little surprised the line maker made her 8/1. I will be just as surprised to see this ML price hold up. I expect she may wind up the 2nd choice and maybe favored when all is said and done. But, if she can stay up around the 9-2 or 5-1 area, we may have a tasty little overlay here. Key the 9 with the tepid ML favorite #11 Nola Girl. I think these two are probably a wash as far as ability, so if Rosie's horse gets too over bet, she will be over bet, flip the 11 and the 9 in your wagering plans. I am also intrigued by a couple of firsters here. The #1 Mischievous Mama (8/1) runs for Wesley Hawley and looks like a good play statistically speaking. She is by Into Mischief whose first timer have won at a very nice 21% rate with a 16% win rate for 2yo's. If that is not enough Hawley wins 24% of the time with first time 2 year olds meaning he brings them to the track ready to run. If that is not enough, Hawley and Miguel Mena when teamed up win 24% of the time. Gee maybe I'll use the 1 filly as my Key. Something to consider if the 9 and 11 take to much action. Round out the superfecta will be the #3 I Jus Wana Hav Fun (9/2) who finished 2nd against similar last out on this track.
P4's and P5's for Fair Grounds
P4 Starting Race 5: 9,3,6,7/ 9.1,3,11/3,5/1,3
P5 Starting Race 9: 2,6,8,9/2,5,7,8/3,1,7,11/7/4,10,11
P4 Starting Race 10: 2,5,7,8/3,1,7,11/7/4,10,11
For the P5 and late P4 the #7 Speedacious will be used as a single. He looks that much better than the rest to me which makes the P5 a little more affordable.
Audentes Fortuna Juvat!
Saturday, December 8, 2012
Saturday, December 1, 2012
Success On Opening Day at GP
Let's get to the race of the day the Claiming Crown Rapid Transit. The 6th race on the Gulfstream Card. As you know I settled on the 5 horse Off The Jak who was 10-1 in the morning line. For a large part of the betting leading up to the race, it looked as if the 10-1 would hold. A lot of late money finally came in on Off The Jak and we went off at still acceptable 7-1.
Off The Jak got off well and assumed his customary postion as the race leader. So far, so good as this is where he likes to run. All the while, he was being pressed by another Chalk Eating Weasel contender Won Fast Bullet. Bernie The Maestro assumed the role of stalker sitting in the cat bird seat and tracking the two leaders. So far everything is going to plan.
What about Peb Hughes, the intrepid and observant reader may ask. Well I was right about that bogus 6-1 morning line as PH went off as the 9-5 favorite. I was also right about the DRF "best bet" kiss of death. I don't know about you, but my idea of a "best bet" is not a 4-5 favorite that anyone with just a passing acquaintance with a racing form can and will come with. I have found that the DRF best bets almost come to the level of tosses. I don't go that far because sometimes even 4-5 favorites do win, but many times they do not.
As they came around the turn, Bernie made his move which proved to be too much for Won Fast Bullet who was unable to provide much resistance at this point. Off The Jak did not go down without a fight, but it was clear that the day was going to belong to Bernie the Maestro.
The Bernie the Maestro-Off The Jak exacta payed a cozy 59.20. Won Fast Bullet was able to stay on for the show and the Trifecta if you went that deep into the pick paid 133.30 for a mere one dollar bill. Not bad work if I do say so myself.
Later that day I managed to hit, oh, dare I say it, the Pick 4 paying $1765.05. In both race 8 and race 10, horses I intended to use were scratched and I had to make last minute substitutions to replace the absent runners. That is why you have to follow me on twitter @cobb42 as I Tweeted my final P4 sequence once the scratches were accounted for.
These happened to be fortuitous substitutions as both came home first to complete the four race sequence. That and a being on the right side of a sphincter tightening photo brought home the bacon. Fortuna smiled upon the weasel.
Off The Jak got off well and assumed his customary postion as the race leader. So far, so good as this is where he likes to run. All the while, he was being pressed by another Chalk Eating Weasel contender Won Fast Bullet. Bernie The Maestro assumed the role of stalker sitting in the cat bird seat and tracking the two leaders. So far everything is going to plan.
What about Peb Hughes, the intrepid and observant reader may ask. Well I was right about that bogus 6-1 morning line as PH went off as the 9-5 favorite. I was also right about the DRF "best bet" kiss of death. I don't know about you, but my idea of a "best bet" is not a 4-5 favorite that anyone with just a passing acquaintance with a racing form can and will come with. I have found that the DRF best bets almost come to the level of tosses. I don't go that far because sometimes even 4-5 favorites do win, but many times they do not.
As they came around the turn, Bernie made his move which proved to be too much for Won Fast Bullet who was unable to provide much resistance at this point. Off The Jak did not go down without a fight, but it was clear that the day was going to belong to Bernie the Maestro.
The Bernie the Maestro-Off The Jak exacta payed a cozy 59.20. Won Fast Bullet was able to stay on for the show and the Trifecta if you went that deep into the pick paid 133.30 for a mere one dollar bill. Not bad work if I do say so myself.
Later that day I managed to hit, oh, dare I say it, the Pick 4 paying $1765.05. In both race 8 and race 10, horses I intended to use were scratched and I had to make last minute substitutions to replace the absent runners. That is why you have to follow me on twitter @cobb42 as I Tweeted my final P4 sequence once the scratches were accounted for.
These happened to be fortuitous substitutions as both came home first to complete the four race sequence. That and a being on the right side of a sphincter tightening photo brought home the bacon. Fortuna smiled upon the weasel.
addendum The late P4 at GP for those who may care
R7 #12, 13, 6, 5
R8#14, 3, 1 I think there is a chance for a big upset in this race
R9# 1, 3, 5
R10# 1, 3, 2, 8.
I haven't seen the scratches yet and a few of these are cross-entered so may be scratched.
R8#14, 3, 1 I think there is a chance for a big upset in this race
R9# 1, 3, 5
R10# 1, 3, 2, 8.
I haven't seen the scratches yet and a few of these are cross-entered so may be scratched.
Claiming Crown at Gulfstream Park
Time is of the essence, so I will dispense with the flowery prose.
The Claiming Crown races at GP will offer many good betting opportunities. The one that jumps off the Thoro-Graph sheets to me is the 6th race, the Rapid Transit. The morning line Favorite is the 2, Coosada (7/2). Coosada is a one run closer with no early speed. These types do not win very often on GP's main track. Instead I want to focus on Off The Jak (10/1). Off The Jak may be the lone speed in the race and has the conditioning benefit of having raced over Calder's tiring race course. Off The Jak's sheet figures, discounting the last race where he had to contend for the lead in a Fl. Bred Stakes race, are competitive with the other major contenders here. The connections of trainer Shivananda Parbhoo and jockey Jose Alvarez are capable and not likely to draw betting attention as will some of the bigger name trainers in the race.
Also contending in this race will be Peb Hughes (6/1). Because this horse is trained by Richard Dutrow and will be ridden by Javier Castellano, it has gotten a lot of DRF attention and is in fact their best bet. Peb Hughes is capable of winning here, but if you think you will get 6/1 after the DRF kiss of death, you're smoking something.
Our old friend Bernie the Maestro (4/1) is back. Bernie has a lot of back class and appears to be rounding into some semblance of good form, but he will have to do a lot of work from the 13 post to avoid having a wide trip around the turn. Consider him on your verticals, but I think you should look elsewhere for the winner, as I have already said.
Finally, if you are looking for someone to fill out that superfecta, take a look at Won Fast Bullet (10/1) starting for Michael Maker under Alan Garcia. Maker wins 25% first time after a trainer change, claimed from Dutrow, and they finish in the money 52% of the time for him. Won Fast Bullet will need to run his best, or better, but has numbers which suggest he could get up for a piece of the action here.
So, to put it in plain English. Use the 5 Off the Jak with the 7, 13, and 9.
The Fair Grounds card this weekend is a less than inspiring affair. So rather than try to break down some state bred maiden claiming race for 2yo's that nobody cares about, I will lay out my late Pick 4 selections.
Race 7 I like in order: 7 Counterblow (7/2), 9 Greenhavens Reward (9/2), 5 Dorsett (6/1) and 3 Cairo Six (4/1)
Race 8 looks pretty chalky: 7 Done Gone (2/1), 3 Contemporaray (5/2) and 1 Hudson's Creed (9/2).
Race 9-- 9 Wits End (9/2) , 10 Midnight Heist 6/1), 4 Banta (3/1), and 2 Manchac (7/2).
Race 10 is one of those 2 yo MCL events and you are either going to have to go with the one obvious horse 1. Hello Kitty Lou (8/5), or hit the all button. It's up to you.
Good luck and see you next week
The Claiming Crown races at GP will offer many good betting opportunities. The one that jumps off the Thoro-Graph sheets to me is the 6th race, the Rapid Transit. The morning line Favorite is the 2, Coosada (7/2). Coosada is a one run closer with no early speed. These types do not win very often on GP's main track. Instead I want to focus on Off The Jak (10/1). Off The Jak may be the lone speed in the race and has the conditioning benefit of having raced over Calder's tiring race course. Off The Jak's sheet figures, discounting the last race where he had to contend for the lead in a Fl. Bred Stakes race, are competitive with the other major contenders here. The connections of trainer Shivananda Parbhoo and jockey Jose Alvarez are capable and not likely to draw betting attention as will some of the bigger name trainers in the race.
Also contending in this race will be Peb Hughes (6/1). Because this horse is trained by Richard Dutrow and will be ridden by Javier Castellano, it has gotten a lot of DRF attention and is in fact their best bet. Peb Hughes is capable of winning here, but if you think you will get 6/1 after the DRF kiss of death, you're smoking something.
Our old friend Bernie the Maestro (4/1) is back. Bernie has a lot of back class and appears to be rounding into some semblance of good form, but he will have to do a lot of work from the 13 post to avoid having a wide trip around the turn. Consider him on your verticals, but I think you should look elsewhere for the winner, as I have already said.
Finally, if you are looking for someone to fill out that superfecta, take a look at Won Fast Bullet (10/1) starting for Michael Maker under Alan Garcia. Maker wins 25% first time after a trainer change, claimed from Dutrow, and they finish in the money 52% of the time for him. Won Fast Bullet will need to run his best, or better, but has numbers which suggest he could get up for a piece of the action here.
So, to put it in plain English. Use the 5 Off the Jak with the 7, 13, and 9.
The Fair Grounds card this weekend is a less than inspiring affair. So rather than try to break down some state bred maiden claiming race for 2yo's that nobody cares about, I will lay out my late Pick 4 selections.
Race 7 I like in order: 7 Counterblow (7/2), 9 Greenhavens Reward (9/2), 5 Dorsett (6/1) and 3 Cairo Six (4/1)
Race 8 looks pretty chalky: 7 Done Gone (2/1), 3 Contemporaray (5/2) and 1 Hudson's Creed (9/2).
Race 9-- 9 Wits End (9/2) , 10 Midnight Heist 6/1), 4 Banta (3/1), and 2 Manchac (7/2).
Race 10 is one of those 2 yo MCL events and you are either going to have to go with the one obvious horse 1. Hello Kitty Lou (8/5), or hit the all button. It's up to you.
Good luck and see you next week
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
