Louisianna Champions Day at the Fair Grounds

Coming back after what was a brilliant Claiming Crown Championship day put on at Gulfstream Park.  I personally congratulate GP on getting and pulling off those races in exemplary form.  Last Saturday was a tough act to follow, so it is natural to feel a little let down about today's card at GP.  The feature race is the G3 Sugar Swirl which drew the Breeders' Cup Fillies and Mares Sprint runner up Dust and Diamonds.  Looks to be the one to beat here and I will not try to beat her.  Unfortunately, her prescence will pollute the Pick 4 as everyone will be using her, as will I, as a single. 

Going through today's GP card I found myself landing on a lot of Morning Line favorites which is never a good thing.  I do think in the first race, a 15k claimer for 2yo fillies, there may be a chance to take a stand against a filly that rates to get a lot of betting action from the public, the #4 Ju Ju Eyeballs.  It will be interesting to watch the tote board on this one and see if she gets any early money from the barn.  What makes her interesting is she won her 2nd Maiden race at Monmouth on June 1, ran 4th of 7 in the My Dear Stakes for 150K at Woodbine on June 24, then was put on the shelf until now only to be dropped into a relatively low level claiming race.  If Ju Ju Eyeballs runs back to her early form she crushes the field, end of story.  However, I think the Wesley Ward barn must have given up on her for a reason.  She may still have enough in the tank to beat this field, but I think there is enough reason to look elsewhere.

#6 Distinction Lady A (6-1) already has 2 wins under belt and looks set up to make a forward move off of her last race.  I will use her as the key horse in the race. #8 Heir To A Slew (8-1) made  a little improvement in her last outing.  The kind of improvement which suggests to me she is beginning to get the idea of racing.  This will be h,er first try against winners but I think she merits a spot on the exotic tickets. #7 Viva's Party Girl (4-1) is another Ward entry.  She won at first asking on June 1 in maiden claimer at Churchill.  She's been off since then, but you can make the case that she is likely to have improved with time and maturity from 6 months prior, and, unlike Ju Ju Eyeballs, you can't say that they are placing her in this race because they have given up on her.  This race is the type she belongs in.

There you have it.  I will key the 6 with the 7 and 8 in the exacta pool as well as put something to win on her.  I will also hedge a little bit with Ju Ju Eyeballs on top of 6,7, and 8 just in case.  If I can keep the ML favorite out of the exacta the payoff should be pretty nice.  If Ju Ju runs back to previous form, I should, at least, recapture some of my investment.

P4's P5's and P6's for today's GP Card (note the preferred choice is listed first, after that...)

P4 Starting R2: 1,5,6/9,3,4,8/1,3,7/2,4,6,7
P6 Starting R5: 2,4,6,7/10,4,5/5,1,3/3,1,4,6,10,11/6/6,8,11
P5 Starting R6: 10,4,5/5,1,3/3,1,4,6,10,11/6/6,8,11
P4 Starting R7: 5,1,3/3,1,4,6,10,11/6/6,8,11

If you play cave man style, you don't need my advice.  If you use the DRF Ticket Formulator, In Race 6 I will use the 2,4,7 as "A" horses and In Race 8 I will use the 1 and 3 as "A" horses.  All others are "B".  Note that I will single the 6 Dust and Diamonds in the 9th so everything will hinge on her.

At Fair Grounds it is Louisianna Champions Day set aside for La. Breds.  Such days always bring surprises and I'm sure today will be no different.  But, I think the best spot opportunity may come in a Maiden race for La. bred 2 yo fillies in race 6.

#9 Shanghai Princess (8/1) is trained by Bret Calhoun and ridden by Rosie Napravnik, so I was a little surprised the line maker made her 8/1.  I will be just as surprised to see this ML price hold up.  I expect she may wind up the 2nd choice and maybe favored when all is said and done.  But, if she can stay up around the 9-2 or 5-1 area, we may have a tasty little overlay here.  Key the 9 with the tepid ML favorite #11 Nola Girl.  I think these two are probably a wash as far as ability, so if Rosie's horse gets too over bet, she will be over bet, flip the 11 and the 9 in your wagering plans.  I am also intrigued by a couple of firsters here.  The #1 Mischievous Mama (8/1) runs for Wesley Hawley and looks like a good play statistically speaking.  She is by Into Mischief whose first timer have won at a very nice 21% rate with a 16% win rate for 2yo's.  If that is not enough Hawley wins 24% of the time with first time 2 year olds meaning he brings them to the track ready to run.  If that is not enough, Hawley and Miguel Mena when teamed up win 24% of the time.  Gee maybe I'll use the 1 filly as my Key.  Something to consider if the 9 and 11 take to much action. Round out the superfecta will be the #3 I Jus Wana Hav Fun (9/2) who finished 2nd against similar last out on this track.


 P4's and P5's for Fair Grounds

P4 Starting Race 5: 9,3,6,7/ 9.1,3,11/3,5/1,3
P5 Starting Race 9: 2,6,8,9/2,5,7,8/3,1,7,11/7/4,10,11
P4 Starting Race 10: 2,5,7,8/3,1,7,11/7/4,10,11

For the P5 and late P4 the #7 Speedacious will be used as a single.  He looks that much better than the rest to me which makes the P5 a little more affordable.

Audentes Fortuna Juvat!