Dania Beach-G3

Welcome back for another adventure in handicapping.  First last week's business.  At Gulfstream Park our key pick, the 6. Distinctive Lady was a late scratch upon the vet's recommendation.  The scratch of the 6 made the race unappealing to me and I sat it out.  I was correct in my suspicions regarding Ju Ju Eyeballs who finished in obscurity somewhere. 

As for my Fair Grounds Selection, you will recall I went to the 6th race there also.  The race was a maiden race for 2 year old La. breds.  The key horse, 9 Shanghai Princess was 8-1 in the ML and, as feared the combo of Calhoun and Napravnik drove the price down to 7-2 making her playable, but less attractive.  Unfortunately, our princess never really fired and finished 6th in a field of 11.  Fortunately, the consolation exacta with I Jus Wanna Hav Fun and Nola Girl paid $42.80 and the Tri which included first time starter selection Mischevious Mama paid $331.00 dollars which just goes to show there is more than one way to skin a race.

This week at Gulfstream they are running the Grade 3 Dania Beach for two year old turfers.  I think this 10 horse field looks to be quite contentious and there may be an opportunity here to catch a price.  The Morning Line favorite is Charming Kitten at 3-1.  I think the price may go lower as the Pletcher/Velazquez combination is very powerful in the minds of the betting public. 

Fortunately, the betting public does not dig much beyond name recognition and consider things like post position. The 10 post on the 1M grass course is not impossible but is still an obstacle to over come in a field that seems to be loaded with 2 yo talent, I am certainly not going to key what will likely be an underlaid colt with a compromising post position.  That being said, she will be used in the Pick 4 and vertical exotics, but I'm looking elsewhere for the key. 

In this race I settled on the 3 horse Itsmyluckyday (5-1).  Itsmyluckyday ran well at Monmouth in early August in his only grass try.  Since then he has won two stakes tries at Calder.  Trainer Eddie Plesa states in a DRF interview that the Delta Downs effort should be discounted as Itsmyluckyday never really took to the track and I'm inclined to agree with him especially since even in that losing effort he ran a dirt figure which, if carried over to turf, could win in today's race.  Hopefully, the prescence of Pletcher/Velazquez and an otherwise contentious field will help to keep this one's odds up around the ML.

Other horses to use in the vertical exotics include #7 Hard to Name (10-1) trained by John Servis and ridden by Joe Bravo.  Hard to Name is the winner of his last two outings.  The colt is sired by Hard Spun so the distance should not be an issue.  If he takes to the surface, he has shown the ability to compete in this field.  The other horse I would want to use is #4 Newfound Zapper (8-1).  He broke his maiden last out on grass at this distance for Wesley Ward in October at Churchill.  A move forward by this colt puts him in the hunt and opens the possibility for large payouts should these prices prevail at post time.

Bottom line Dania Beach  Key the #3 with #10, #7, and #4 in the verticals and use the 3 and 10 horses as "A" horses for your Pick 4 tix.

I think that is all the heavy analysis I am going to give you this week.  At NOLA (I think this is the now the trendy way of referring to New Orleans) in the Tenacious (R10) I like the 2 Hurrican Ike over the 1 It Happened Again, 3 Worldly and the 3-1 ML favorite 5 Apart.

Late Pick 4 at GP (races 7-10)-- 2,12,6,10/8,3,6,10/3,4,6,7,10/3,4,5,7
Late Pick 4 at FG (races 8-11)-- 2,5,6,9/1,3,6,7/2,1,3,5/2,1,4,10

Again I do not recommend you go cave man with these P4's as the cost can become prohibitive.  I strongly urge you to use the DRF ticketmaker.  It is free and a great tool for constructing smart multi race wagers.

Audentes Fortuna Juvat