Wow, has it really been a whole month since I last visited these pages. Well with the advent of the real Gulfstream Park racing season and my recent attendance at the Breakfast at Gulfstream affairs on behalf of Thorofan that makes sense.
Speaking of Thorofan, had a wonderful time at...
Well, the above is where I left it when I had to go back to Breakfast at Gulfstream last week. It is just as well as my sudden departure prevented me from making a fool of myself.
Regarding the Holy Bull, I would've have written that I thought Shanghai Bobby was beatable in this race. I was correct, because he was beaten, yet I was incorrect because it took a track record and a dead rail trip to do it. I would have also steered you towards Frac Daddy who turned out to be a non-factor as he grabbed a quarter during the race and away from Itsmyluckyday who I mistakenly felt might bounce off his big effort in the GP Derby on New Year's Day. Clearly, he did not bounce. I went on last weekend to not cash a single ticket either day. I am going to blame my new Samsung Tablet the buying of which I justified by saying how it would pay for itself in printer ink and paper.
This week I will not be attending Breakfast at Gulfstream because I have to address a group of Cub Scouts about the scientific method. I will be using the Hutcheson Stakes as an analogy for the explaining the scientific method and corrupting young minds at the same time..Bwah ha ha ha!
Actually I will use the Super Bowl as my analogy. Boys still care about the Super Bowl, don't they?
On to the Hutcheson! The morning line favorite is Merit Man at 3-1. Clearly I have other ideas or I wouldn't be writing about the race. The Spectacular Bid comes back as Merit Man's slowest effort both in terms of Beyer's Figures and Thoro-Graph figures. Granted, the early fractions were torrid, but Merit Man crawled home barely holding off an average runner in City of Weston who had every opportunity to pass Merit Man down the stretch.
Last week trainer Ron Pellegrini and jockey Jozbin Santana teemed up for a shocker in the 9th race at GP with longshot winner Offlee Wild. The race was all the more notable as a mandatory race for the NTRA NHC 13 taking place in Las Vegas in which eventual winner Jim Benes had made the lucky selection. Actually, Offlee Wild made a lot of sense on the Thoro-Graph Sheets and I flogged myself afterward for having ignored him.
I will not make that mistake again. Pellegrini and Santana reunite in the Hutcheson with another runner which could be a contender here. Not as solid on the sheets as Offlee Wild. We will need to see some progress here for this one to be a winner; however the stars may be aligned for this one.
The number 6-Singanothersong started his career with a pair of 6 and 3/4 on the TG sheets winning on his 2nd attempt. After that they tried stretching him out in the Seacliff stakes at CRC and his performance declined noticeably. After another try at stakes level competition, Singanothersong was placed back in his normal Allowance conditions where he managed to throw in 2 places and a show before finally breaking through last time out in an OC75kN1X. In the process, Singanothersong returned to the 6 3/4 he ran early in his 2 year old debuts. This last race suggest he is now ready to make a quantum leap forward. It could be this race, maybe the next. At 8-1 in the morning line and with connections that tend to be ignored among flashier names, I think we will get a square price for a live contender.
Another horse with a big shot in here, and certainly one to use with Singanothersong is the 1 Forty Tales. You get Todd and Johnny V and probably a short price, but this one has been too good to ignore in his two outings. Both of his races have given back figures which could be good enough to win here. The only question you will have to ask is how short of a price are you willing to withstand. I will use him in the exotics with the 6 Singanothersong and 8 Honorable Dillon, another who looks to be sitting on a big effort.
Bottom line. I will take a shot at high priced glory with Singanothersong in the win pool and fool around with him, Forty Tales, Honorable Dillon, and maybe Merit Man in the exotics.
The Hutcheson is one of the www.publichandicapper.com contest races this week. My other selections for the contest are:
Sam F. Davis: Falling Sky, My Name Is Michael, Northern Lion
Strub: Stephanoatsee, Tritap, Guilt Trip
Arcadia: Willy Conker, Silentio, Suggestive Boy
Good luck and remember..
Audentes Fortuna Juvat!
Saturday, February 2, 2013
Saturday, December 29, 2012
It Ain't The Heat, It's the Humidity
It looks to be a warm and muggy winter day here in South Florida today. There is a small chance of showers, but it looks as though the turf races will be run so far today.
Last week was definitely a big swing and miss. Not only did Nikki's Sandcastle win from the 14 post, actually 13 due to a scratch, but none of my contenders did any running to even give me a thrill for my money. In fact the entire weekend seemed to go that way for me. Today's another day so let's dive in and see what we can find to get some of those hard earned dollars back.
The Mr. Prospector is today's 5th race. I suspect the race was moved up to 5 so as not to pollute the Pick 5 and Pick 4 with a 6 horse field which would, no doubt, depress the handles in those fields. I have no unique insights into this race. Four of the six entrants in this race like to go to the lead early, so I suspect the race will set up for a stalker/closer type. This scenario puts me square on the #6 horse Indiano (8/5), who I expect will turn the tables on Action Andy (6/5). The value in the race may be the #5 Partyallnightlong (12/1) who should also benefit from hot early fractions. I suspect Action Andy may be due for an off race after three to efforts in a row and look for #1 Bull Dozer (6/1) to round out the trifecta.
The race I want to talk about is the 9th race at GP, a first level Allowance race for fillies and mares 3 and up. The race is 9 furlongs which is important because the field gets some extra distance before hitting the first turn. This should benefit the #11 filly, morning line favorite, Riolama (5/2). Of course, if I thought Riolama were a sure thing here, I wouldn't be writing about this race.
Riolama has every right to win this race. She is a lightly raced 3 year old coming off a new top last out with every right to improve with 3 months rest.
Another contender is #2 High On Kitten (6/1). This filly must be a bit of a disappointment to Ken and Sarah Ramsey with only 2 wins in 20 outings. Still, she appears to be a good fit here with figure wise and Wesley Ward and Julio Garcia have been clicking together for a gaudy 28% win rate when teaming up. She has got to figure on your tickets.
I also like the #9 Marlin Mission (4/1) running for Dale Romans. She is another lightly raced 3 year old with competitive figures who is likely to improve and it could be today.
Finally, I arrive at the key horse for today's race #1 Sex Appeal (12/1). Sex Appeal has little more experience than some others in here as a 4 year old filly. She runs between 6 and 8 Thoro-Graph numbers which places her right in the thick of it if she runs her best. By comparison, the best race for the morning line favorite Riolama is a 8 (lower numbers are better). Granted Riolama has a greater right to improve, but with only 13 career races, it is possible Sex Appeal has not yet fired her best shot. In addition, she draws the more favorable inside post and figures to save some ground relative to here outside competitors. Today could be the day she breaks out that life time best and I am willing to take the chance at 12/1 or somewhere in that neighborhood.
In plain English. 1. Sex Appeal to win and key with 11 Riolama, 2 High On Kitten, and 9 Marlin Mission in the exotic pools.
Late P4 at GP (Races 7-10): 7,8,9,6/7,6,3,1/1,11,2,9/5,8,2
Late P4 at Tampa (Races 7-10): 4,8,7,1/8,9,7,2/5,7,3/7,5,6,1
Audentes Fortuna Juvat!
Last week was definitely a big swing and miss. Not only did Nikki's Sandcastle win from the 14 post, actually 13 due to a scratch, but none of my contenders did any running to even give me a thrill for my money. In fact the entire weekend seemed to go that way for me. Today's another day so let's dive in and see what we can find to get some of those hard earned dollars back.
The Mr. Prospector is today's 5th race. I suspect the race was moved up to 5 so as not to pollute the Pick 5 and Pick 4 with a 6 horse field which would, no doubt, depress the handles in those fields. I have no unique insights into this race. Four of the six entrants in this race like to go to the lead early, so I suspect the race will set up for a stalker/closer type. This scenario puts me square on the #6 horse Indiano (8/5), who I expect will turn the tables on Action Andy (6/5). The value in the race may be the #5 Partyallnightlong (12/1) who should also benefit from hot early fractions. I suspect Action Andy may be due for an off race after three to efforts in a row and look for #1 Bull Dozer (6/1) to round out the trifecta.
The race I want to talk about is the 9th race at GP, a first level Allowance race for fillies and mares 3 and up. The race is 9 furlongs which is important because the field gets some extra distance before hitting the first turn. This should benefit the #11 filly, morning line favorite, Riolama (5/2). Of course, if I thought Riolama were a sure thing here, I wouldn't be writing about this race.
Riolama has every right to win this race. She is a lightly raced 3 year old coming off a new top last out with every right to improve with 3 months rest.
Another contender is #2 High On Kitten (6/1). This filly must be a bit of a disappointment to Ken and Sarah Ramsey with only 2 wins in 20 outings. Still, she appears to be a good fit here with figure wise and Wesley Ward and Julio Garcia have been clicking together for a gaudy 28% win rate when teaming up. She has got to figure on your tickets.
I also like the #9 Marlin Mission (4/1) running for Dale Romans. She is another lightly raced 3 year old with competitive figures who is likely to improve and it could be today.
Finally, I arrive at the key horse for today's race #1 Sex Appeal (12/1). Sex Appeal has little more experience than some others in here as a 4 year old filly. She runs between 6 and 8 Thoro-Graph numbers which places her right in the thick of it if she runs her best. By comparison, the best race for the morning line favorite Riolama is a 8 (lower numbers are better). Granted Riolama has a greater right to improve, but with only 13 career races, it is possible Sex Appeal has not yet fired her best shot. In addition, she draws the more favorable inside post and figures to save some ground relative to here outside competitors. Today could be the day she breaks out that life time best and I am willing to take the chance at 12/1 or somewhere in that neighborhood.
In plain English. 1. Sex Appeal to win and key with 11 Riolama, 2 High On Kitten, and 9 Marlin Mission in the exotic pools.
Late P4 at GP (Races 7-10): 7,8,9,6/7,6,3,1/1,11,2,9/5,8,2
Late P4 at Tampa (Races 7-10): 4,8,7,1/8,9,7,2/5,7,3/7,5,6,1
Audentes Fortuna Juvat!
Saturday, December 22, 2012
El Prado Stakes? Get Serious!
Today I'll take a peak at the El Prado Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The race drew a full field of 14 plus an Also Entered and promises to be a fun betting affair.
First for the infamous DRF Best bet the experts at the Form settled on 5. Salto (5-1) trained by Todd and ridden by J.J. I understand their enthusiasm to some degree. First, it is Pletcher at GP which has been money in the bank in recent years. Second, Castellano may be the best jock going on turf right now. Third, Salto's last two races at Keeneland certainly put him in the thick of things here.
But, you knew there would be a "but" coming now didn't you, both those races at Keeneland were run on the poly track. Whenever Salto has run on turf his numbers become a little more pedestrian. Unless, this 4 nearly 5 year old, has made some quantum leap in ability, unlikely at this point in his career in my opinion, expect him to run back to his previous pedestrian turf figures. Good news for us is that it is Pletcher at GP in a Saturday stakes race, so expect Salto to take more money than he should from the betting lemmings, er I mean public.
Another horse sure to draw some attention will be the 14 Nikki's Sandcastle (7/2). NS was the winner of the Claiming Crown Emerald Stakes last out on opening day of the GP meet. He is a member of a small, elite group of horses who are not owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey able to win a race that day.
On Dec. 1, NS broke from PP1. Today he will break from the unfortunate post 14. I don't have the exact numbers handy, but, trust me, post 14 at a mile on the turf course will be a tall order to fill.
So, after eliminating the DRF Best Bet and ML favorite, we are left with a wide open race to ponder.
In this race I narrowed my focus to 4 main contenders. The 10 Beaux Choix (6/1) is a capable turfer with figures making him a definite contender in this race. I think the 10 post is still a little difficult, if not as bad as the 14, so I have discounted his chances somewhat although he will be a factor on my Pick 4 tickets.
The second worthy of consideration is the 3 Get Serious (10/1). I have to admit that Get Serious is a personal favorite of mine so I may have a bit of bias with this one.
First for the infamous DRF Best bet the experts at the Form settled on 5. Salto (5-1) trained by Todd and ridden by J.J. I understand their enthusiasm to some degree. First, it is Pletcher at GP which has been money in the bank in recent years. Second, Castellano may be the best jock going on turf right now. Third, Salto's last two races at Keeneland certainly put him in the thick of things here.
But, you knew there would be a "but" coming now didn't you, both those races at Keeneland were run on the poly track. Whenever Salto has run on turf his numbers become a little more pedestrian. Unless, this 4 nearly 5 year old, has made some quantum leap in ability, unlikely at this point in his career in my opinion, expect him to run back to his previous pedestrian turf figures. Good news for us is that it is Pletcher at GP in a Saturday stakes race, so expect Salto to take more money than he should from the betting lemmings, er I mean public.
Another horse sure to draw some attention will be the 14 Nikki's Sandcastle (7/2). NS was the winner of the Claiming Crown Emerald Stakes last out on opening day of the GP meet. He is a member of a small, elite group of horses who are not owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey able to win a race that day.
On Dec. 1, NS broke from PP1. Today he will break from the unfortunate post 14. I don't have the exact numbers handy, but, trust me, post 14 at a mile on the turf course will be a tall order to fill.
So, after eliminating the DRF Best Bet and ML favorite, we are left with a wide open race to ponder.
In this race I narrowed my focus to 4 main contenders. The 10 Beaux Choix (6/1) is a capable turfer with figures making him a definite contender in this race. I think the 10 post is still a little difficult, if not as bad as the 14, so I have discounted his chances somewhat although he will be a factor on my Pick 4 tickets.
The second worthy of consideration is the 3 Get Serious (10/1). I have to admit that Get Serious is a personal favorite of mine so I may have a bit of bias with this one.
Here is a picture of my wife visiting with Get Serious and trainer John Forbes at his stall at Monmouth the day before the Haskell Stakes this year.
The 8 year old gelding has some plusses and minuses going for him in this race. On the plus side, he likes to run on firm turf, which he should get, he likes to run on the lead, which he should get, and I think jockey Elvis Trujillo may be a particularly good fit for Get Serious based on his ability to get horses wire to wire on the turf.
On the minus side, Get Serious has not been training seriously since leaving New Jersey with last Thursday's allowance sprint serving as a public workout. Also on the minus side is that the turf course has, thus far, not been particular kind to need to lead types like Get Serious.
I will be pleasantly surprised if he wins and will have him on my tickets, but I will go elsewhere for the key horse today.
Number 2 Teaks North (15/1) brings a ton of back class into this race. On the plus side, if he runs back to his 4 year old figures he will have a very good chance to win here. On the negative side he has been side lined for nearly 11 months. However, I am not a believer that these long layoffs are necessarily as bad as the old timers think they are. I think medications, therapies, and training techniques are much more advanced than they were even 10 years ago, and we all know about Richard Dutrow and medications, eh?
But finally, I need a horse to use as a key and the winner is, drum roll please, #6 Tune Me In (10/1). Tune Me In rounded into form in the G3 Cliff Hanger Stakes at Monmouth Park on September 1 beating both Salto and Get Serious and hasn't missed a beat since. I look for Tune Me In to continue his good form under new trainer Jane Cibelli. Cibelli wins at an 18% clip when running a horse for the first time and if we get 10/1 this will be a bargain. Look for Tune Me In to stalk Get Serious again and try to take over when the horse hit the stretch.
Final analysis, Tune Me In to win and keyed in the exotics with Teaks North, Get Serious, and Beaux Choix.
Pick 4 selections races 7-10 GP: 6,9,5,7/5,2, 4, 3(?)/6,2,3,10,14/1,4,8,6,9,11
Pick 4 selections races 2-5 at Fair Grounds: 11,4,2,1a/1,3/8,1,5/4,6,7
Unfortunately Fair Grounds polluted the late P4 with a race for 2 year old all of which with the exception of one have never raced before. Sheesh?
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
Saturday, December 15, 2012
Dania Beach-G3
Welcome back for another adventure in handicapping. First last week's business. At Gulfstream Park our key pick, the 6. Distinctive Lady was a late scratch upon the vet's recommendation. The scratch of the 6 made the race unappealing to me and I sat it out. I was correct in my suspicions regarding Ju Ju Eyeballs who finished in obscurity somewhere.
As for my Fair Grounds Selection, you will recall I went to the 6th race there also. The race was a maiden race for 2 year old La. breds. The key horse, 9 Shanghai Princess was 8-1 in the ML and, as feared the combo of Calhoun and Napravnik drove the price down to 7-2 making her playable, but less attractive. Unfortunately, our princess never really fired and finished 6th in a field of 11. Fortunately, the consolation exacta with I Jus Wanna Hav Fun and Nola Girl paid $42.80 and the Tri which included first time starter selection Mischevious Mama paid $331.00 dollars which just goes to show there is more than one way to skin a race.
This week at Gulfstream they are running the Grade 3 Dania Beach for two year old turfers. I think this 10 horse field looks to be quite contentious and there may be an opportunity here to catch a price. The Morning Line favorite is Charming Kitten at 3-1. I think the price may go lower as the Pletcher/Velazquez combination is very powerful in the minds of the betting public.
Fortunately, the betting public does not dig much beyond name recognition and consider things like post position. The 10 post on the 1M grass course is not impossible but is still an obstacle to over come in a field that seems to be loaded with 2 yo talent, I am certainly not going to key what will likely be an underlaid colt with a compromising post position. That being said, she will be used in the Pick 4 and vertical exotics, but I'm looking elsewhere for the key.
In this race I settled on the 3 horse Itsmyluckyday (5-1). Itsmyluckyday ran well at Monmouth in early August in his only grass try. Since then he has won two stakes tries at Calder. Trainer Eddie Plesa states in a DRF interview that the Delta Downs effort should be discounted as Itsmyluckyday never really took to the track and I'm inclined to agree with him especially since even in that losing effort he ran a dirt figure which, if carried over to turf, could win in today's race. Hopefully, the prescence of Pletcher/Velazquez and an otherwise contentious field will help to keep this one's odds up around the ML.
Other horses to use in the vertical exotics include #7 Hard to Name (10-1) trained by John Servis and ridden by Joe Bravo. Hard to Name is the winner of his last two outings. The colt is sired by Hard Spun so the distance should not be an issue. If he takes to the surface, he has shown the ability to compete in this field. The other horse I would want to use is #4 Newfound Zapper (8-1). He broke his maiden last out on grass at this distance for Wesley Ward in October at Churchill. A move forward by this colt puts him in the hunt and opens the possibility for large payouts should these prices prevail at post time.
Bottom line Dania Beach Key the #3 with #10, #7, and #4 in the verticals and use the 3 and 10 horses as "A" horses for your Pick 4 tix.
I think that is all the heavy analysis I am going to give you this week. At NOLA (I think this is the now the trendy way of referring to New Orleans) in the Tenacious (R10) I like the 2 Hurrican Ike over the 1 It Happened Again, 3 Worldly and the 3-1 ML favorite 5 Apart.
Late Pick 4 at GP (races 7-10)-- 2,12,6,10/8,3,6,10/3,4,6,7,10/3,4,5,7
Late Pick 4 at FG (races 8-11)-- 2,5,6,9/1,3,6,7/2,1,3,5/2,1,4,10
Again I do not recommend you go cave man with these P4's as the cost can become prohibitive. I strongly urge you to use the DRF ticketmaker. It is free and a great tool for constructing smart multi race wagers.
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
As for my Fair Grounds Selection, you will recall I went to the 6th race there also. The race was a maiden race for 2 year old La. breds. The key horse, 9 Shanghai Princess was 8-1 in the ML and, as feared the combo of Calhoun and Napravnik drove the price down to 7-2 making her playable, but less attractive. Unfortunately, our princess never really fired and finished 6th in a field of 11. Fortunately, the consolation exacta with I Jus Wanna Hav Fun and Nola Girl paid $42.80 and the Tri which included first time starter selection Mischevious Mama paid $331.00 dollars which just goes to show there is more than one way to skin a race.
This week at Gulfstream they are running the Grade 3 Dania Beach for two year old turfers. I think this 10 horse field looks to be quite contentious and there may be an opportunity here to catch a price. The Morning Line favorite is Charming Kitten at 3-1. I think the price may go lower as the Pletcher/Velazquez combination is very powerful in the minds of the betting public.
Fortunately, the betting public does not dig much beyond name recognition and consider things like post position. The 10 post on the 1M grass course is not impossible but is still an obstacle to over come in a field that seems to be loaded with 2 yo talent, I am certainly not going to key what will likely be an underlaid colt with a compromising post position. That being said, she will be used in the Pick 4 and vertical exotics, but I'm looking elsewhere for the key.
In this race I settled on the 3 horse Itsmyluckyday (5-1). Itsmyluckyday ran well at Monmouth in early August in his only grass try. Since then he has won two stakes tries at Calder. Trainer Eddie Plesa states in a DRF interview that the Delta Downs effort should be discounted as Itsmyluckyday never really took to the track and I'm inclined to agree with him especially since even in that losing effort he ran a dirt figure which, if carried over to turf, could win in today's race. Hopefully, the prescence of Pletcher/Velazquez and an otherwise contentious field will help to keep this one's odds up around the ML.
Other horses to use in the vertical exotics include #7 Hard to Name (10-1) trained by John Servis and ridden by Joe Bravo. Hard to Name is the winner of his last two outings. The colt is sired by Hard Spun so the distance should not be an issue. If he takes to the surface, he has shown the ability to compete in this field. The other horse I would want to use is #4 Newfound Zapper (8-1). He broke his maiden last out on grass at this distance for Wesley Ward in October at Churchill. A move forward by this colt puts him in the hunt and opens the possibility for large payouts should these prices prevail at post time.
Bottom line Dania Beach Key the #3 with #10, #7, and #4 in the verticals and use the 3 and 10 horses as "A" horses for your Pick 4 tix.
I think that is all the heavy analysis I am going to give you this week. At NOLA (I think this is the now the trendy way of referring to New Orleans) in the Tenacious (R10) I like the 2 Hurrican Ike over the 1 It Happened Again, 3 Worldly and the 3-1 ML favorite 5 Apart.
Late Pick 4 at GP (races 7-10)-- 2,12,6,10/8,3,6,10/3,4,6,7,10/3,4,5,7
Late Pick 4 at FG (races 8-11)-- 2,5,6,9/1,3,6,7/2,1,3,5/2,1,4,10
Again I do not recommend you go cave man with these P4's as the cost can become prohibitive. I strongly urge you to use the DRF ticketmaker. It is free and a great tool for constructing smart multi race wagers.
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
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