Mea Culpa

Back for a little look at how the picks did last Saturday, but first a word about the condition of Rene Douglas. I thought I had heard reported on TVG that a full recovery is expected for Rene Douglas. I have not been able to confirm that from any other source. Hence, I believe that I misheard whatever was said about his condition. If my error has caused anyone distress, my bad. Still, let's hope my error turns out to be correct.

I am getting so inundated with punditry regarding the Belmont that I'm not sure I can maintain my objectivity in approaching the race. I may have to pass the race on that basis alone. No doubt the race will be a Public Handicapper race, so I'll have to take a shot for the contest. However, I am hearing so much about Summer Bird, Charitable Man, Dunkirk, et.al. that it may all be too confuddled in my little head. The one horse that doesn't seem to be getting much pundit respect is Mine That Bird. Most pundits seem to think he's beatable here, and their probably right as far as it goes. Be that as it may, I will look at the pp's once they're out and, of course, let you know what I think about the race. I just worry that it will not be my opinion.

Last Saturday was a good day for the Weasel as he had the winner in 2 of 4 races. Ironically, it was the other two races the Weasel actually cashed in on. The Weasel passed the the McKayMacKenna Stakes and the Golden Gate Fields Turf Stakes due to a lack of overlays.

Spring House was an easy choice in the Golden Gate Fields, and I felt the only horse that had a real chance to upset the 3 to 5 favorite was Yacht Spotter. However, I felt that Shem, starting from the inside post, would deny Yacht Spotter the opportunity to get loose and comfortable on the lead. I was wrong as Shem was content to sit 2 to 3 lengths off the leading Yacht Spotter for 6 furlongs before fading into oblivion. Perhaps Shem was trying and just wasn't fast enough, I dunno. Still, even with the easy lead Spring House was too much for the rest of the field and Yacht Spotter at the end. A good race to pass.

The McKayMacKenna Stakes at Belmont is a little more frustrating. True, I had the winner, and had I followed my usual custom of key boxing my win bet with the other contenders I'd have had a decent exacta as well. And if I had gone so far as to fashion some sort of trifecta keying on the win choice...well you get where I'm going here as I had the top three finishers with only La Hernanda disappointing. This is where the betting line comes in and I have to question if my line was accurate. 5-2 really isn't a bad price to get on a favorite. Officially the final price was 2.3-1 but Scolara sat at 5-2 for most of the time. This race was restricted to non winners of major stakes and was particularly competitive as a result. I still thought Scolara was a little bit of a stand out over the others so the question becomes, was I too cautious in making Scolara 2-1. According to the racetype stats available in the Brisnet Ultimate PP's the favorite wins this particular type race 25% of the time which equates to 3-1 in odds. Unfortunately, this particular statistic is only based on 4 races, so it is not a particularly strong number to use. For instance, if a similar race is carded this Saturday the stat would say the favorite wins 40% of the time equating to odds of 3-2. Quite a difference.

So there is the conundrum. You can see by my picks that I'm not trying tout some wiseguy pick. No shouting,"COME SEE THE CHALK EATING WEASEL'S 20-1 MORTAL LOCK PICK OF THE DAY." My edge, at least I think it is my edge, is the ability to more accurately determine a horses probability of winning than the betting collective. Now, I'm not so arrogant as to think I'm smarter than the rest of the world. The crowd collectively gets it right for the most part. I just look for those little tremors in the force, to use a little Star Wars reference. So after all of this is said and done, I'm still not sure if my line for this race as accurate as it could've been.

I think I found a couple of tremors in the force in the Aristides and the Gamely stakes. In the Aristides, my favorite was Semaphore Man. The favoritism was based largely on his consistent performance over 3 different dirt surfaces: Oaklawn, Retama, and Fairgrounds. Reminded me of another recent Kelly Von Hemel stakes winner (remember Euphony?).

I was surprised Semaphore Man was not more heavily played, but at 6-1 he was a slam dunk for a wager and he almost pulled it off getting beat down the stretch by Bold Start. Luckily for me, I called an audible when I found out Cassoulet had been scratched and substituted Bold Start as a contender. I'd like to take credit for that piece of fancy footwork the the truth is I just substituted Public Handicapper's Carsoni's pick as he had posted it in the HANA group and the reasoning made sense to me. Thank's Carsoni! Following my custom of the exacta as place bet, the result was a winning wager for the race.

The other tremor in the force I found was Magical Fantasy in the Gamely Stakes. I honestly thought Black Mamba was the best horse in the race and Diamond Diva was definitely a horse for the course. But Magical Fantasy had beaten Black Mamba one race ago and was getting no respect at 6-1. Again, a slam dunk win wager. If only Diamond Diva could've held off Visit and completed the exacta.

Well, it's a little hard to be self critical when one was as on as I was last week. You really can learn more from your losses than your wins. However it is more fun to revel in wins. I would like to know what woke up Visit who so far has been nothing but an also ran in the States. Of course, Visit was still an also ran here, but showed a little spunk this time. I think, up until this race, that spunk has been lacking. Perhaps a horse on the improve that may be worth a closer look next race.

Ok, I also just brainstormed a betting strategy combining the Pick-3 with use of exactas, but I'll have to save that for another time.

See you for the Belmont

Jeff aka Chalk Eating Weasel