Breeders' Cup Aftermath and Fair Grounds Trainer Angle

Well the cup has come and gone. As always, I am left breathless by these amazingly competitive races. I've got to start saving my pennies now so the I can attend next year's edition live at Churchill Downs.

Didn't do to bad as a handicapper on the Friday card as several top picks came home first including the 9.8-1 Tapitsfly in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Had some straight winners on Saturday too, but tried to hard to find the upsets rather than let them come naturally. Have to remember that the game is not about picking winners but finding the overlay. I found that overlay in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile where #3 contender Furthest Land brought home the bacon at a juicy 21.3-1. Find one of those and your day is made. I hope you played it

Hey if the Weasel helped you prosper in any way during the Cup, show him some love and let him know.

But enough about me. The Fair Grounds has reopened for the '09-'10 season. The Weasel loves the Fair Grounds. On the opening Saturday the Weasel found Air Combat going off at 15.6-1 in the first race and Weekend Pass @ 6.1-1 in the 5th. Sweet!!

Anyone who plays Calder Race Course has to be able to deal with wet weather as Summer is the rainy season here in sunny South Florida. The management tries to schedule races for the turf, but the reality is that many if not most of them are washed off onto the main track. Thus, it has finally occurred to the thick-headed Weasel that perhaps there are some trainers laying in wait for those "off the turf" races entering horses who have never done anything more than eat a blade of grass in the expectation of getting to run on the main track.

Then it occurs to the Weasel that if trainers do, indeed, enter horses into turf races actually intending to run them only if the race comes onto the main track, that some may be better at it than others. Ya think? If one were to go back through the results chart, one may be able to discern which trainers are lurking for "off the turf" races and which are just out for the exercise. Finally, it occurs to the Weasel that this is a novel angle that he has never read of anywhere before, so perhaps there may be an edge to be found here.

Well it's too late for Calder as the rainy season has past. However, thought the Weasel, the Fair Grounds sees it's fair share of rainy weather over the Winter. Perhaps we can use this angle for the upcoming meet. And so I bring to you the results of my hours of research for your perusal and, hopefully, profit.

I went through each day's chart for the '08-'09 season looking for races that were taken off the turf. The following spreadsheet insert shows the top trainers in terms of ROI. For, after all it is ROI that counts.

First let me show you the top "off the turf" trainers.

Granted, are number of trainers that do not have a significant number of races. However, surprising to me is the prescence of Bill Mott on the list. Mr. Mott being a well-known, successful trainer, I figured his entries would be over bet. This not the case. Mott has 5 wins in 16 off turf races for a 31% success rate and 21 cents earned for every federal reserve note (FRN) laid. Caveat about Mott, catch him early in the season as his win rate dropped as the season progressed. I expect as the weather warms up North so goes Mott's better horses.

But what I'm really looking for are those lesser known trainrs with positive results i.e. Richard Scherer at 98 cents per FRN. Patrick Mouton at 68 cents per FRN.

Be careful with Steve Asmussen. Winner of 6 out of 20 for a 30% hit rate, you take a slow road to the poor house losing 42 cent per FRN as his entries are typically underlaid at Fair Grounds. Other notable trainers to avoid Tom Amoss, Alvin Sider, Steve Margolis, Keith Bourgeois, Bret Calhoun, Sam Breaux, Mark Casse, Mark Frostad and a horde of others.

The list of trainers with negative ROI's and flat out no "off turf" wins is far longer than the short list above. When confronting races off the turf stick with Mott (early), Mouton, Scherer (Richard, not Merrill), and Stall and let's make some cash.

Check out my last entry (maybe they'll ask me back again some time) at www.casetherace.com this Saturday. Just missed with a live firster last out. Maybe I'll get lucky this time.

I'm Off

Breeders' Cup Eve

Twas the day before the cup,
and all through the house
the Weasel was searching
for some picks to serve up.

As promised, I have returned to you on the eve of the Breeders' Cup and am prepared to give you my selections for this weekends championship races.

One thing is for sure, there is no shortage of opinions on these races. If you are interested in a consensus of Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance choices then follow this link http://www.tbablogs.com/BCPicks.php .

Due to the sheer number of races, commentary will be minimal to non-existant. If you want reasons, there are plenty willing to offer reasons for their opinions.

As a reminder, since I haven't mentioned this in a while, the top pick will not necessarily be the one to play. We want to play overlays. Many times this will mean playing against the top pick. I have provided my own odds levels for each selection. The first odds are what I consider to be fair odds. The second set will be the minimum odds you need to play the selection.

Friday's Races

The Breeders' Cup Marathon

#6 Mastery : 2/1---3/1
#5 Father Time: 9/2---7/1
#3 Nite Light: 5/1---8/1
#4 Cloudy's Knight: 6/1---9/1

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
#10 Tapitsfly: 3/1---9/2
#7 House of Grace: 7/2---5/1
#1 Potosina: 9/2---7/1
#4 Rose Catherine 5/1---8/1

The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

#3 Blind Luck: 2/1---3/1
#10 Negligee: 9/2---7/1
#7 Devil May Care: 5/1---8/1
#8 She Be Wild: 6/1---9/1

The Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf

#2 Forever Together: 3/1---9/2
#4 Magical Fantasy: 7/2---5/1
#6 Midday: 9/2---7/1
#3 Rutherienne: 5/1---8/1

The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

#7 Informed Decision: 5/2---4/1
#9 Ventura: 3/1---9/2
#2 Sara Louise: 6/1---9/1
#8 Seventh Street: 6/1---9/1

The Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic

#7 Music Note: 2/1---3/1
#1 Careless Jewel: 2/1---3/1
#2 Life Is Sweet: 6/1---9/1

Saturday's Races

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

#4 Pounced: 2/1---3/1
#3 Codoy: 9/2---7/1
#11 Interactif: 5/1---8/1
#10 Becky's Kitten: 6/1---9/1

The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

#7 Gotta Have Her: 3/1---9/2
#6 Cannonball: 7/2---5/1
#3 California Flag: 9/2---7/1
#10 Canadian Ballet: 5/1---8/1

The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint

#8 Captain Candyman Can: 7/2---5/1
#1 Zensational: 7/2---5/1
#3 Fatal Bullet: 9/2---7/1
#5 Gayego: 9/2--- 7/1

The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile

#6 Pulsion: 3/1---9/2
#4 Noble's Promise: 7/2---5/1
#8 Esdendereya: 9/2---7/1
#9 Aikenite: 6/1---9/1

The TVG Breeders' Cup Mile

#4 Delegator: 2/1---3/1
#1 Court Vision: 9/2---7/1
#3 Cowboy Cal: 5/1---7/1
#2 Whatsthescript: 6/1---9/1

The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

#1 Mastercraftman: 2/1---3/1
#4 Bullsbay: 9/2---7/1
#2 Furthest Land: 5/1---8/1
#5 Neko Bay: 6/1---9/1

The Emirate Airlines Breeders' Cup Turf

#6 Presious Passion: 3/1---9/2
#2 Conduit: 7/2---5/1
#5 Dar Re Mi: 9/2---7/1
#7 Spanish Moon: 5/1---8/1

The Breeders' Cup Classic

#2 Colonel John: 3/1---9/2
#8 Einstein: 7/2---5/1
#4 Zenyatta: 4/1---6/1
#7 Gio Ponti: 6/1---9/1

Hey! Check out my full analysis of Saturday's race 10 from Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. Also you will find a brief analysis of the Ladies Classic and the Classic. Note, I change my mind on the Classic after I had sent in my picks to Case the Race. I have heard really good things about Rip Van Winkle. Then I hear is very washed out after an easy gallop at Santa Anita and has a chronic foot problem to boot. I don't know how the surface change will affect his foot. I will take a good look at him in the post parade, at least as good as I am able. If I like what I see, I may change my mind again.

Good Luck

Waiting For The Cup

I don't really feel like doing the Public Handicapper races today. Does that make me a bad person? The week has been full. I really haven't had the time to get into them and do them justice. As I've said before, better not to do them at all than to be half-assed about it.

I'll make it up to you, I promise. For starters, I have the entire 13 race CRC card scoped out for you. The weather is expected to be sunny and warm so all the races scheduled for turf should actually make it to the sod today.

In addition, I will bring selections for all the Breeder's Cup races as I get them. I actually have the early entries now, but I can't see wasting all the ink, paper, and time putting any effort into them until the entries have been finalized and the post positions drawn. I think that happens on Tuesday, so I'll be working all day Wednesday and probably most of Thursday poring over racing forms and results charts.

My general game plan for the big event will be to play CRC on both days as I normally would and try to be selective and pick my spots with the Cup races. We'll see if I can resist the temptation to plunge my brains out on each race.

Reminder that my stint as a guest handicapper at http://www.casetherace.com/ continues this week with a full analysis of today's race 8 at CRC.

Calder Race Track Selections for October 31.

Race 1: 1 mile Clm6250N2L for fillies and mares 3 years old and up

#7 Cynthia's Secret
#1 Caveat Cat
#8 Dibs On Debbie
#3 Honey Of A Dream

Race 2: 6.5 fur. Clm16000N2L fillies 2 years old

#2 Grand Decision
#1 Forgiven
#3 She's A Mambo
#5 Full N Sassy

Race 3: 1 mile Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for fillies 2 years old

#3 Golden Humor
#2b Kate's Holiday
#1a Super Girlie
#7 Come Sunday

Race 4: 7.5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 21k for fillies 3, 4, and 5 years old

#7 Lady Zeig
#5 Manerbe
#8 Two Cheers
#6 Starland Queen

Race 5: 6.5 fur. Starter Alw 16000 for 3 years old and up

#6 Starship Valor
#8 Caixa Eletronica
#3 Christmas Parade

Race 6: 5 fur. MdClm 12500 for fillies and mares 3, 4, and 5 years old

#9 High Dollar Escort
#10 My Espresso
#12 Savannah Sings

Race 7: 8.5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 years old

#5 Big Joey
#7 Lion Thunder
#11 Mr. Postman
#10 Bold Tiger

Race 8: 7 fur. Clm10000b 3 years old and 4 years old and upward which have never won three races

#5 Brandy Bai
#4 Girl Band
#1 One Proud Cat
#3 My Best China

See http://www.casetherace.com/ for full analysis

Race 9: 5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 year olds

#5 Sliding In
#3 More Drama
#7 Tiger Willie
#2 Fortunate Rooster

Race 10: 5.5 fur. Clm12500N2L for 2 year olds

#3 My Good Friend
#8 Mega Party
#4 Nothing's Perfect
#6 By Your Side

Pick 4 tickets for races 7-10 brought to you by DRF's Ticketmaker and the Chalk Eating Weasel

1. 5/5/5/3 times 2
2. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/5/3
3. 5/5/3,7/3
4. 5/5/5/4,6,8
5. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/3,7/3
6. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/5/4,6,8
7. 5/5/3,7/4,6,8
8. 5/5/2/3

Total cost $25.00 for a .50 base bet

Race 11: 1 mile(Turf) Alw 21700N1X for 3 year olds and upward

#8 Regis
#1 Bandit Prince
#11 Caravel
#3 Sky Gate

Race 12: 6 fur. Starter Alw 16000 for fillies and mares 3 years old and upward.

#2 Wyatt's Women
#7 Margaret Smile
#5 Meadow Touch
#8 Suave Royalty

Race 13: 1 mile Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 year olds

#5 Forty Nine Acres
#1 Taxes Taxes Taxes
#4 Hellen's Cause
#9 Backstage Lounge

That's all for today. Good Luck and enjoy the races

Making the Case

Here it is 7:30 in the morning and I'm looking out the window to the south watching the morning clouds roll in off the ocean and hoping they aren't bring any rain for the turf course at Calder today.

Today I get to bring you 4 more races from the Public Handicappers contest so sit back, relax, and the Weasel take you through some nice competitive racing.

The first race comes from Laurel Park in Maryland. Its the 9th race on the card, The Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash a Grade 1 affair contested at 6 furlongs for 3 year olds and upward.

Vineyard Haven, the DQ'd runner up to Capt Candyman Can in the King's Bishop at Saratoga is the headliner for this race, but he will not be alone in this competitive field of 9.

The race shapes up with a lot of front running types to be vying for the early lead. If this becomes the story of this race then the set up will be perfect for the horse that can stalk from off the pace and we have such a horse in this field in #3 Ravalo.

Stalk and pounce is the modus operandi for Ravalo, and he is capable of running the triple digit figure that will be required to win this race making him the top choice over the likely favorite Vineyard Haven.

Of course, it may be the Vineyard Haven is just too good for the field. The 3 year old is working well and showing no ill effects from its shoving match with Capt Candyman Can back in August. Alan Garcia will get the call. The Godolphin Racing entry will be tough to beat.

The #6 horse, Peace Chant, is another that may benefit if the early pace is too hectic. Peace Chant is a lightly raced 6 year old with only 15 starts indicating that ol' PC has been spending a lot of time on the disabled list. In his last, the Forego-G1, Peace Chant was making a strong late bid when he got cut off and lost the big mo. The DRF comment box notes that although Peace Chant primarily raced on the West Coast, all four of his wins have come on dirt. Looks like he has a puncher's chance in this one to me.

Finally #4 Fleet Valid is one that can sit close to the early leaders and take over when the time is right. Fleet Valid has won 4 in a row at Monmouth including 2 non graded stakes events. He is another contender that is capable of posting triple digit Beyer's in this race.

So while Vineyard Haven may be the one to beat in this race, don't look for the rest of the field to roll over for him. Below are the selections in order of preference.

#3 Ravalo

#1 Vineyard Haven

#6 Peace Chant

#4 Fleet Valid

For the 9th race at Keeneland, The Lexus Raven Run G2. I just have to throw my hands up and say pick 'em. There are 16 entered, 14 will run, and it is possible to make a case for just about all of them. I'm going to have to stick with the obvious in this one.

Both the #8 Flashing and #4 Pretty Prolific are coming out of key races, so I am making them tepid 1,2 favorites here. The horse I will probably play and key exotics around will be my 3rd choice #5 Jardin.

Jardin is coming 3rd back off a layoff and trainer Thomas Albertrani is 35% with a +ROI in the last 2 years with this angle. Since I think Jardin will be something better than 9-5 in this field, I will at least have the satisfaction of having a sound statistical overlay to play. Of course in this large a field, any horse is likely to offer a reasonable price.

Finally the 4th choice will be #11 Sky Haven who is a proven syn runner for Asmussen with some nice Beyer's and Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard.

This looks like a great trifecta opportunity if you can somehow narrow the bet size down to something manageable.

The selections are

8. Flashing

4. Pretty Prolific

5. Jardin

11 Sky Haven

At 8:53 am This just in. Raining at Calder.

The 9th at Belmont is the 32nd running of The Hudson for State breds 3 and up

Finally, a race that isn't a real head scratcher

Although a New York bred, #1 Driven By Success has had some success racing in open graded company and has been dominant against the state breds making him an easy top choice.

The one NY bred that has recently had some luck against DBS is #11 Law Enforcement. Don't worry about his last in the Forego. I expect he will come back with some run in this easier spot.

The 3rd choice, #4 Legal Consent, broke poorly last out. However, he has earned a lot of money racing against his fellow state breds and has an affinity for the track and the distance.

After these 3 its anybody's guess in this race although, I suppose you could consider #9 Be Bullish who benefitted from Legal Consent's problems last out. Still, I figure Driven By Success will be the one to beat here.

1. Driven By Success

11. Law Enforcement

4. Legal Consent

9. Be Bullish

Finally, another contest for state-breds from Belmont Park the 1oth race is the 24th running of The Empire Classic for 3 and up.

This is the race Michael Maker is finally going to win one for the Weasel. There is no doubt in my mind that Future Prospect is the best bet of the 4 races if you wish to cash a ticket. That said if Future Prospect is a paltry 1-2 as he was last out, I will pass the race.

The 2nd choice is the #5 Haynesfield coming off a good off the bench effort last out he should move forward off of that race for Steve Asmussen and rider Ramon Dominguez

The 3rd choice goes to #2 Slevin. Coming 3rd off the layoff he has had 2 strong efforts and just needs a little luck here to make his first stakes score.

Finally the 4th choice will the #4 Weathered. Weathered is appreciated for his game efforts in open company which is always a plus when looking at state bred restricted races such as this one. A 50% winner, Weathered knows how to find the wire first and would not be a big surprise.

The choices

#6 Future Prospect

#5 Haynesfield

#2 Slevin

#4 Weathered.

As always, when looking at these selections, one should take into account the odds on each horse and perhaps play or key on the one that seems to offer the most value to you. If one of these picks has a particularly long price, take a good look at the horse. It is possible that I am just off-base with the selection. It is also possible that I have seen something others have missed. That is the decision you must take responsibility for.

Hey!!! Check out my selection for the 12th race for Calder Race Course today. Hopefully it will stay on the grass, but since most of the runners are more experienced on the main track, it may not make all that much difference. To check out my selection visit http://www.casetherace.com/ The analysis is really there today, I checked it out myself.

As always Good Luck with your selections in todays racing and enjoy the races.

Festival of the Sun

As I write this from my Florida room a mere few minutes from Calder Race Course the skies are sunny with the temperature at 77o. Contrast to Toronto where the temperature is a chilly 34 with Rain/Snow showers forecast.

I actually have the Nearctic and Candian International Races handicapped, but considering the current conditions, I feel that all that work is out the window into the bright Florida sunshine now. Instead, I will bring you the 11th race from Calder, the G3 Spendabuck Hcp and the Senator Ken Maddy Hdcp (G3) from Santa Anita.

As a bonus, to make up for the rainy/snowy Woodbine race, I will give you my stakes picks for the other Calder stakes on this big South Florida Racing day.

Now for race 11 from CRC

With the exception of Lady Shatzi who is making her North American debut from Peru, the horses running in this race are old friends who have frequently shared the same track.

Of this group, #9 Motovato, trained by Marty Wolfson and ridden by Eddie Castro is clearly the class of the field as the winner of 2 of the last 3 stakes he has run at Calder including a 2nd place finish behind the late Finallymadeit in the G3 Memorial Day Hdcp. I do have a race where I will try to beat Wolfson, just not this one.

The 2nd choice #10 Mambo Meister has spent most of the Summer running on grass but has also shown ability on dirt. Therefore, the surface switch should be of no consequence. Mambo Meister is a capable 4 year old who gets leading rider Manoel Cruz in the irons. Manny is definitely better on dirt than grass (a little CRC hint: I nearly always consider Cruz a bet against on turf). Mambo's last 3 have all been graded affairs up at Saratoga and Monmouth so he will definitely be feeling the class relief in this field.

The #4 Dream Maestro is getting little respect from the morning line maker at 12-1 and the DRF analysts not even getting a nod for 3rd position on the selection sheet. However the Maestro has run some good races and always seems to be hanging around in the money at the end. It may be true that Dream Maestro suffers a bit of seconditis with 9 places in 22 tries, but I don't see how you can completely discount this consistent contender. I wouldn't play him at 2-1 but 12-1 could be another story.

Finally the 4th choice is the #1 Imawildandcrazyguy who won on the slop last out. Really, this is more of a nod to the abilities of Eibar Coa who seems to dominate when he runs at Calder rather than the ability of this one time KY Derby entrant. However, Imawildandcrazyguy exhibits a lot of back class with winnings of $626,745 easily out distancing the other contenders in the field. Play only at a large price.

#9 Motovato
#10 Mambo Meister
#4 Dream Maestro
#1 Imawildandcrazyguy

Off to The Oak Tree at Santa Anita and the SKMaddyH at 6.5f.

The top choice #2 Gotta Have Her has been in the money for her last 8 and 9 of her last 10. She is 3 for 3 at this distance and has 4 for 8 winners at Santa Anita including a G2 win in the Palomar Hdcp last out. Just flat out looks like the one to beat to me.

Maybe #4 Reba Is Tops can be the one to do it. She probably needed her last, finishing 2nd in the Daisycutter at Del Mar and should move forward this time out. She will be tough to beat if she does. Joe Talamo gets the call. Joe and Reba have been a potent combo since teaming up 4 races ago with 2 firsts and 2 seconds. I expect more of the same here.

#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle (ooh that is going to make the spell checker go nuts) is the 3rd choice. She is the defending champ and is showing no indication in her recent outings of slowing down. Other than she appears to be in top form at the moment, what more is there to say here.

#5 Tuscan Evening rounds out the contender list in this top field as she returns to a distance that is certainly more to her liking. Fagettabout her last effort at 9 furlongs. This race is where she belongs.

Honestly, there is not much to choose from between these 4. If you want my advice I'd play whichever of the 4 has the longest odds and be very happy about my chances of winning

#2 Gotta Have Her
#4 Reba Is Tops
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle
#5 Tuscan Evening

Without comment here are my other Stakes pick for CRC today

Race 6 The Birdonthewire for 2 yo's 5.5 f

#8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
#5 Mr. Green
#7 Peace At Dawn
#3 Simplifying

Although I haven't been able to find it yet, you should be able to view my full analysis of this race at www.casetherace.com.

Race 7 The Florida Stallion My Dear Girl 400k for 2 yo fillies

#4 Winsockie
#6 Sweetlalabye
#1 Joanie's Catch
#5 Tillie The Tigress

Race 8 The Calder Oaks for 3yo fillies 75k

#6 Providanza
#3 Royal Card
#4 Fire Water

Race 9 The Florida Stallion In Reality for 2 yo's 400k

#6 Jackson Bend
#3 Thank U Philippe
#4 Bim Bam
#8 Allez Reef

Race 10 The Calder Derby(G3) for 3yo's 100k

#3 Sal the Barber (My pick 4 single)
#6 Grand Cash
#2 Livingston Street
#9 Pound Foolish

Race 12 The Cassidy for fillies, 2yo's 75k

#2 Sweet Like Sugar
#7 Rosebud's Ridge
#1 Lavender's Spirit
#6 Slavic Princess

Finally, just in case you're interested, my picks for the two races from Woodbine before I became aware of the conditions

Race 8 The Nearctic (G2)

#11 Jungle Wave
#1 Field Commission
#9 Hero's Reward
#4 Karakorum Elektra

Race 10 The Pattison Canadian International (G1)

#4 Just As Well
#7 Juke Box Jury
#3 Quijano
#8 Spice Route

That's it for this week. Enjoy the racing and Good Luck

Breeder's Cup Scramble

Happy to be back in the saddle this week. Sorry about lack of posts last two weekends but sometimes personal and professional obligations just get in the way. I'd rather not do something at all than do it half-assed. After all, we've all got to have priorities.

Realistically, today is the last weekend for Breeder's Cup entries and wannabes to show their stuff, get tuned up for the big races, or just plain find out if they can run with the big dogs. With that thought in mind, Public Handicapper has 2 races from Keeneland and 2 from Santa Anita all of which have implications for the upcoming Breeder's Cup races now less than a month away.

The first race open for discussion is race 8 from Keeneland, The Dixiana Breeders' Futurity for 2 year olds contested at a mile and sixteenth.

I love 2 year old racing, which is a good thing as I get my fair share of it here in South Florida over the summer. Now we've moved from those ridiculous 2f affairs of early April to some real racing distances.

Two year olds are still learning to race and one thing I like to look for as the babies stretch out is those that look as if they get it rather than those which just break from the gate running all out until they can't go no more.

One horse in this race which certainly meets the aforementioned criterion is the #2 Backtalk trained by Thomas Amoss. Back Talk is already a multiple graded stakes winner and I expect him to bounce back after a wide trip in the Hopeful Stakes last out.

One knock against Backtalk we be how well he will take to the surface change. However the Oct. 5 6f work out at a respectable 1:12 4/5 tells me that the surface will not be an issue.

The 2nd choice for this race has yet to break his maiden. I suppose you could say he's a multiple graded stakes runner up. Those Beyer's figures look really nice and Lookin At Lucky has done nothing but flatter #7 Make Music for Me by winning the G1 Norfolk last Sunday at Santa Anita. Make Music for Me is another 2 yo that has shown some ability to hold his powder. Now if he can just get up to the line in time we may see some real fireworks.

The 3rd choice has merely won a maiden race at Saratoga and has to start from the outside post to boot. But if anyone can figure out a way to overcome a race course obstacle it will be Julien Leparoux on board #14 Stately Victor. Stately Victor is trained by Michael Maker.

Maker is a trainer that doesn't get as much press as others. He simply goes quietly about his business winning at a 25% clip year after year.

Stately Victor scored his maiden win at today's distance over the Saratoga grass posting an 80 Beyer in the process. Word is that good turf form usually translates well to poly form so the surface switch is not nearly as much a concern as the post. Look for Stately Victor at least somewhere underneath in the exotics if not in the winner's circle.

The fourth choice is the undefeated #1 Dixie Band. One reason Wayne Catalano is such a winner is he has a knack for placing his charges in races they can win, and Dixie Band has been no exception.

If there is any way to knock an unbeaten horse, the DRF has tried to do so in their closer look comment that the fillies ran faster in a later race on the same card as his last outing. You may take the comment for what its worth. Last time I looked there weren't any fillies running in the race and fillies seem to have been making it a habit of beating their brethren lately.

Another horse that may be live here, but I don't like the short break (14 days) is #6 Noble's Promise.

Top Choices

#2 Backtalk
#7 Make Music for Me
#14 Stately Victor
#1 Dixie Band

The next race to look at is...the next race at Keeneland or race 9 The Shadwell Turf Mile (G1).

As of this writing the Turf Course is soft and #1 Yorktown and #3 Wise River are scratched.

The soft going will be right up the top choice's alley the #2 Mr. Sidney. Mr. Sidney is 4 for 4 at this distance. Forget about the Arlington Million. Mr. Sidney was out of his element there. Mr. Sidney has won the G1 Maker's Mark Mile here at Keeneland and the G2 Firecracker at Churchill Downs over yielding courses so he definitely has the credentials for win here.

However, Mr Sidney is not a "stone cold lock" in here because there is another horse running that has had a terrific Summer. Long time readers of the report may recall the hunch play from Gulfstream Park way back at the beginning of the year with Justenuffhumor. Well, it turns out you could've ridden that hunch all year long as Justenuffhumor has done nothing but get better and win since January. Now he returns to the site of his only defeat.

Justenuffhumor has improved his Beyer every time he has raced (54, 86, 91, 94, 99, 103, 106). This streak can't go on forever. Sooner or later he has to have traffic problems, not like a surface, or just plain have an off day. I'm going to bet that today is that day. Still, he remains the 2nd choice #7 Justenuffhumor.

The third choice is no stranger to winning on soft grass. #5 Battle of Hastings has had a pretty good Summer himself and surprisingly to me is not a bad miler in his own right although I still believe that more distance suits him better.

Finally the fourth choice is strictly an angle play. #9 Court Vision is making his first start for Richard Dutrow. You can think what you like about Dick, but whether he does it honestly or not, horses that start first time out for him win 30% of the time. So don't ignore this one.

Choices
#2 Mr. Sidney
#7 Justenuffhumor
#5 Battle of Hastings
#9 Court Vision

Now moving on to the 6th race at Santa Anita the 24th running of The Oak Tree Mile (G2).

The top choice for this race has the tactical speed needed to either go to the lead or sit just of the pace as tactics dictate, is 2 for 2 at the distance and is coming out of two tough Saratoga races against 3 yo phenom Justenuffhumor. #9 Cowboy Cal gets the call as the top choice here. Garrett Gomez gets the call and with the recent form Cowboy Cal has been showing I think he is going to be tough to beat in here.

There are a few others that might get to the wire first and the 2nd choice for that honor would be #4 Global Hunter. Global Hunter turns back to a better distance after running 8th in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Looked to me like he never really got into that race. I prefer to look at the two races sandwiched in between the two 10 furlong debacles to get a better idea of the Hunter's ability at a mile. Global Hunter can win this race and may give a decent price in the process.

Another kinda sneaky horse in here is the #10 Whatsthescript coming in fresh for John Sadler who is 25% with a +ROI for horses off for 61-180 days. In case you think this may be too tough a spot to comeback in I will point out that Whatsthescript finished 3rd behind Goldikova and Kip Deville in last year's BC Mile after a similar layoff. Whatsthescript is 4 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 on the SA turf and should feel right at home here.

Finally I just have to throw in a tepid 4th choice here, #7 Monterrey Jazz. Monterrey Jazz clearly did not take to the Del Mar turf after a good Hollywood meet. In addition, the Winter Santa Anita meet was nothing to write home about either. However, MJ has run well here in the past and gets a positive jockey change in the person of Hall of Famer Mike Smith. Its a long shot and chances are MJ will run out of gas again, but then again...

Choices

#9 Cowboy Cal
#4 Global Hunter
#10 Whatsthescript
#7 Monterrey Jazz

Ok, I'm running out of steam here, good thing there is only one more to go. The 7th race from Santa Anita The Goodwood (G1) for 3 and up

I love it when the connections take a horse out of his element, like running on turf a race before a big one such as this because it helps to darken the form just enough to take less savvy players off him. Such is the case with my top pick here, #2 Tiago.

Tiago comes into this race fresh with only his 2nd race since February. With regular rider Mike Smith on board look for Tiago to be sweeping up wide and late (does Smith know any other way to ride?).

Tiago is 8 times ITM with 4 wins in 8 tries at the distance and has won over 1.5 million at Santa Anita. Look for him to add to that total today.

The 2nd choice is #4 Colonel John who had a terrible trip in the Pacific Classic. Look for the Colonel to improve on that effort with some better luck today.

The question about the 3rd choice #10 Mine That Bird in my mind is whether or not he is legit or merely a flash in the pan. We'll find out a lot about that today. The Bird has been working well over the course and I understand Woolley is happy with the way he has been running.

The Bird also gets reunited with his Derby rider Calvin Borel. However, Cali is a long way from Kentucky and the riding styles on the cushion are not the same as at Churchill. I'm not sure Calvin will make the adjustment.

Finally, I have to throw in Tres Borrachos as the 4th. If there was any other speed in this race, Tres would not get mentioned; however, this is the only horse in this race that has shown any desire to show the way. Joe Talamo knows how to ride so don't be shocked if today is the day Tres Borrachos wires the field.

Choices
#2 Tiago
#4 Colonel John
#10 Mine That Bird
#5 Tres Borrachos

By the way, commencing next week and continuing for a total of 4 weeks I will be a guest commentator for Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. I will choose one race on the Saturday card for Calder Race Course and offer my own unique perspective on the race. I'm really looking forward to the opportunity to perhaps shed some light on the racing at my home track.

Until the next post. Good luck

North of the Border

Not much to write home about regarding yesterday's prognostications from KY Downs. But then, you can't say I didn't warn you. Those races didn't cost me any money. Hope you did better.

Now off to Toronto for the Northern Dancer-G1 and the Woodbine Mile-G1 for 3 and up.

In the Northern Dancer I think #9 Marchfield gets the nod as the 5 yo showing excellent form at this time. Also gets the home field advantage with Mark Casse and Patrich Husbands over some of the invaders from the south.

The 2nd choice is the German-bred #2 Musketier (remember Salve Germania who just got flattered by Rutherienne). Musketier has won at this distance over this very track. Apparently Musketier got caught up in a bit of pace duel in the Sword Dancer. Look for Bejarano to mete out Musketier's speed a little more judiciously.

The 3rd choice is last year's winner #6 Champs Elysees. Last year's Northern Dancer winner has yet to win in 2009 but is coming 3rd off the layoff and should be ready for a big effort. Garrett Gomez comes all the way from Cali for the ride.

The 4th and final contender is #8 Just As Well trying the distance for the first time. You can't ignore any horse on grass with Julien Leparoux in the irons. It doesnt' hurt that Just As Well ran a very good 2nd to Gio Ponti in the Arlington Million last out.

Race 10 The Woodbine Mile

This race is very competitive as one might imagine when $1,000,000 is being contested. Is than American or Canadian, I wonder? Some sort of case can be made for nearly every horse in the race. I wish I could offer some unique insight into this race, but it seems to me that the usual suspects are the standouts here.

#8 Rahy's Attorney is the top pick. Toss out his last race, a mile and 3/8ths is too much for the gelding but cutting back to a mile should be right up his alley. Rahy's Attorney will race forwardly but is not a need to lead type which will serve him well as there are a couple of other potential pace factors in the race.

The 2nd choice, and not far behind the top, is the versatile #5 Bribon. The grade 1 winner loves the distance and showed last out that he hasn't lost anything on the turf. Bribon has won 3 in a row with Alan Garcia in the irons and will be making a late run to make it 4.

The 3rd choice #9 Ventura hasn't run since April but that shouldn't be a problem for the 2008 BC Fillie and Mare Sprint Champ. Ventura has no problem coming off the bench and winning big races. She finished 2nd to Rahy's Attorney in this race last year and comes back to even the score.

The 4th pick is a bit of a stretch here, but a horse for the course can't be ignored. #10 Jungle Wave won the G2 Play King last out at Woodbine and is 3 for 3 over the track. He'll have to step up his game to beat these, but may be worth a flyer at a long price. Certainly one to watch for exotics.

That's it for this week kiddies. Let's hope I do better than I did yesterday.

Good Luck

Turfing It At KY Downs

Coming to you in two installments this week as the Public Handicapper weekend stakes will involve two race from Woodbine to be run tomorrow.

I'm kind of taking the weekend off this week but must play the Handicapper races. Actually I don't "have" to play them. Just feeling obligated to make selections for as many of the PH races as I can.

Two wrap up last week's action, three out of four ain't too bad. Might've been 4 of 4 if Gozzip Girl could've kept from stumbling over her own feet. However, that, my friends is why you don't play 2 to 5 favorites. Just sit and watch those races.

Unfortunately, the other 3 races turned out to be real chalk fests. I'd rather be 1 for 4 with an 18-1 Bullsbay than 3 for 4 with last weeks results.

Today's races come to us courtesy of Kentucky Downs, a quaint little turf course I really don't know all that much about, so keep that in mind and cut me some slack this week.

The first race is a 6 furlong affair known as the Kentucky Cup Turf Dash for 3 year olds and up. Looking at the course configuration, I would think the outside posts would be at a disadvantage here, but then last year Fort Prado managed to finish 2nd starting from the 9th post. You have to ask yourself did the outside post hinder Fort Prado from winning, enable him to overachieve, or have no real influence on the outcome one way or the other. I don't know the answer to that question.

The top choice for this race is #4 Guam Typhoon. This is strictly an angle play as Guam Typhoon is turning back from 9 furlongs to six after setting the fractions at the longer distance last 2 out at Saratoga. The caveat here is that Guam Typhoon has never raced on grass so some faith that trainer Ian Wilkes knows what he's doing here. Don't be looking for Guam Typhoon to be setting the fractions here. That is not how he has won sprints in the past. I suspect Borel will take him back off the pace and go for a big finish. But then again, I'm not very good at predicting race strategy.

I like the #9 Yankee Injunuity. Toss out his last over a yielding surface. If the footing is firm I don't see how he can miss being a factor in today's race. Be aware that the forecast for Franklin, Ky is for showers. Something to take into consideration as Yankee Injunuity sometimes seems to falter on soft courses.

The third pick is #6 Hold The Salt ridden my the 2nd all time leading wins female jockey Rosemary Homeister, Jr. Hold The Salt is 2 for 2 at the distance and is 2 for 2 at Kentucky Downs including winning last years edition of this very race.

Finally I'll give #7 Just For Keeps a shot here. Michael Maker teams up with Orlando Mojica at a 41% win rate with a positive ROI. Just For Keeps comes off the bench not having a race since April, but Maker excels as a trainer in this category as well. Just For Keeps was very competitive early this year winning his first two starts before fading badly in the Giant's Causeway at Keeneland. If he can regain his early form, he may be the price horse of the day.

The other race for today is the 1 1/2 mile Kentucky Cup Turf-G3 for 3 and up

I found this race to be a real head scratcher so take that under advisement before using anything I say here.

#2 Timeless Fashion is 9 for 5 lifetime and has never finished out of the money. This will be the strongest field this lightly raced 5 year old has faced and wouldn't be surprising at all to me if he goes all the way here

#5 My Happiness is the 2nd choice and seems recently to have been racing well behind better. Calvin Borel is in the driver's seat and maybe the combination of a lesser field and BoRail can push this won to the front at the wire.

#4 Rumor Has It is the 3rd choice on the basis of having won the race last year. That's not much to go on but its all I got in this contentious field. He has been running well lately and there aren't any "great" horses in this race. So, why not a repeat performance?

#12 Deal Making is a lightly raced 4 year old looking to make his first big score. 3 for 8 on the turf he comes 3rd off the layoff for Graham Motion.

Well that's all for Ky Downs. I'll post the Woodbine races a little later today or tomorrow morning. Until then.

Saturday Stakes

Welcome back for another trip through the Public Handicapper races of the day. First a look at last Sunday's Pacific Classic from Del Mar.

Can't say I saw Richard's Kid coming, but I should have. After all with last weekend being Labor Day weekend and Jerry raising money for his kids (does he still do that?), it should have been the hunch play of the week.

Glad to see Einstein still has a big effort, and hopefully more, in him. Rail Trip also ran a good race although he couldn't quite get up in the end. I thought Colonel John had a bit of a troubled trip. Getting stuck behind horses like he was can take a lot out a runner. By the time he finally did get clear he had nothing left. Global Hunter was the only one of the contenders that didn't become some kind of a factor in the race.

But that was last week. This a brand new week with brand new races to handicap. Here we go to Delaware Park for the first race of the week the G3 Endine. A 6 furlong affair for fillies and mares 3 and up.

The Endine is a speed filled affair that really caused me to waffle back and forth a lot. You would think this race would set up nicely for a late runner, but I just don't think the two late runners in this race are good enough to get the job done. I don't even know why the #3 Iron Butterfly is in this race. She is a good claiming horse but seems out classed here. Marty Wolfson's #7 Pious Ashley disappointed her backers at 0.9/1 in and allowance at Calder last out. As much as I love to pull for Wolfson when he ships, I can't see this one winning here.

#2 Keep The Peace and #1 Sunday Geisha are to need to lead types and someone has to give. I think it will be Sunday Geisha as Keep The Peace has been showing a little more staying power recently.

#4 Lady Chace, #5 Casanova Killer, #6 Fearless Leader, and #8 Bold Union.

4 of Fearless Leader's 5 wins have come on off tracks and the forecast for today does not include rain, except for showers. If the track is wet she becomes a factor.

That leaves 3 and Bold Union is the top choice having finished 2 lengths behind the last horse to finish ahead of Rachel Alexandra, Sara Louise, last out. I do have some trepidation about her wheeling back so soon, 14 days, after that last race. However, that used to be commonplace. She should be able to sit behind the pace and take over as the others falter.

Casanova Killer is the 2nd choice to win. Jeremy Rose gets the reins and he seems to ride a lot of Klesaris winners. Casanova Killer also comes off a win in the Jenny Wade Hdcp at Penn National.

Lady Chace is choice number 3. Probably figures to benefit most from the pace scenario but may not be quite fast enough here. B.J. Hernandez, Jr. and Steve Margolis have been another potent jockey/trainer combo, so she has to figure in here somewhere.

Finally Keep The Peace will be the 4th choice. She just may go all the way, but she seems to get caught a lot judging by her 7 2nd place finishes. Still this may be her best distance and she'll be sure to get the early jump on the others.

#8 Bold Union 8-5 take 5-2
#5 Casanova Killer 6-1 take 9-1
#4 Lady Chace 6-1 take 9-1
#2 Keep The Peace 6-1 take 9-1

Next we go north of the border to Toronto and the La Prevoyante for Ontario sired 3 year old fillies at 1 mile on the turf.

Tops on the list here is the #10 Double Malt who has done this twice before against similar and in many cases the same competition. Double Malt was odds on in a field of 4 last out and figures to be the favorite again. At least, in a field of 10, maybe you can get something better than 1-2 for your money.

The 2nd choice is #1 Executive Deed who takes the blinkers off and stretches out to a mile. Passing Mood ran 2nd to the top choice 2 back in a good first turf effort and could move forward off that effort. Will likely give be overlaid if everyone pounds on Double Malt as you would expect.

The 3rd choice is #5 Koonunga Hill. Koonunga Hill showed promise as a 2 year old but has failed to move forward as a 3 year old. Her latest efforts with 3 consecutive ascending Beyer's suggest this may be a horse on the improve.

#10 Double Malt 1-1 take 3-2
#1 Executive Deed 5-1 take 8-1
#5 Koonunga Hill 6-1 take 9-1

The next race is from Belmont Park the G1 Garden City Handicap for 3 year olds at a mile and an eight on the turf.

As of this writing the race is still on the grass, but it is raining so the going will be soft. The 4 logical contenders for this race have all run well on softer turf courses which helps making this race probably the easiest one to handicap so far.

#1 Gozzip Girl is the one to beat. She is rested and has been pointed for this race after dominating the American Oaks. She was flattered in that race by Well Monied who ran well to finish 3rd next out in the Del Mar Oaks (G1).

I can't choose between #6 Shared Account and #8 Maram for 2nd choice. Both are proven on soft turf and eligible to move forward and challenge Gozzip Girl. Give them equal chances.

The 4th choice is the #9 Keertana who was just a length slower than Shared Account last out after going 4 wide in the Lake Placid. This is a tough spot for her, but she is a Grade 3 winner and has a chance to step up.

#1 Gozzip Girl 5-2 take 4-1
#6 Shared Account 4-1 take 6-1
#8 Maram 4-1 take 6-1
#9 Keertana 6-1 take 9-1

The last race, the G3 Presque Isle Downs Masters for f and m 3 and up has the potential to be the most exciting race of the day with lots of early pace and stone cold closers to take advantage.

The tough part was finding legitimate contenders with experience on all-weather surfaces. This will be the first try over Tapeta for logical contenders #2 Diamondrella and and #4 Game Face. The #5 Bear Now is 8 of 14 on sythetic surfaces, but figures to be part of the early pace scenario.

I decided that #9 Informed Decision makes the most sense as she is 4 for 4 on fake surfaces and has the stalking ability to stay close to the leaders.

If Diamondrella can handle the surface, she will be coming late and is the 2nd choice here as she comes off of a key race G1 victory over the turf at Belmont and has been resting since that race in early June.

Game Face is another with tactical speed to stay close early and only need to prove some ability on the surface to be in contention and is the 3rd choice here.

Finally, in a nod to proven ability over sythetic soil, Bear Now will be the 4th choice although I expect the anticipated pace scenario is not in her favor.

#9 Informed Decision 3-1 take 9-2
#2 Diamondrella 4-1 take 6-1
#4 Game Face 4-1 take 6-1
#5 Bear Now 6-1 take 9-1

As always, these opinions are worth exactly what you pay for them. If you think they make some sense then feel free to use them, but don't blame me if they turn out to be duds.

Enjoy the days races and good luck.

Rachel Faces Stiff Challenge In Woodward

Ah yes, back once again for another excercise in public humiliation known as The Chalk Eating Weasel Report.

To briefly recap last week. The Report managed to improve a little on the previous week coming up with a straight winner in the Traver's Stakes with Summer Bird. Capt. Candyman Can and Music Note also managed to flatter the Weasel. The Captain, in particular, running a gutsy race to gain a well deserved win via the DQ.

The Ballston Spa nearly caused me to fall out of my seat with the winner Salve Germania. I wanted to include Salve Germania as the 4th contender, I really did. Although an Irish bred, Salve Germania has German breeding on the Dam side. I have been reporting on how the importance of the stamina element represented by German breds is being recognized on the Continent. Probably the first Lasix didn't hurt. My gut said, "Contender.", but my mind looked at a seemingly lack luster past performance and said, "No." Oh what a coup that would've been.

The Ballston goes to show that it's the ones that get away that hurt. Anyone could've come up with the winners of the other three races. No great feat there. But Salve Germania! It will be awhile before you get a price like that on her again.

Now to this week's Public Handicapper races. Today I will give analysis and selections for 3 of the 4 races. The Pacific Classic is tomorrow, so I will post that one later. As a special bonus, I'll take a look at the Woodward as well (pssst hint, hint, Rachel looks really good here).

Just a note here. I have been using the Daily Racing Form's Formulator for this weeks races. There are some things I like about the Formulator and some things I don't care for so much. Sounds like a bonus edition of The Chalk Eating Weasel Report is in the offing some time in the future.

The first race is the 70k Peerless Springs from Saratoga. The Peerless Springs in One Mile on the old sod for 3 year old, New York bred, fillies.

There are 10 horses entered in this race, but, honestly, there are 3 horses where I just have to ask myself why they have been placed in such an ambitious spot. Since all 3 are owned by private individuals, I just have to conclude that it may be a bit of an ego thing with these owners wanting to see their horses running at The Spa. The three tosses are Eager Emma, Elegant Bass, and Freedom Rings. If one of these wins, then it won't be the first time I've had egg on my face.

The top choice for this race is the 7-2 morning line favorite #4 Our Golden Dream. In her last race, OGD finished 4th 2 lengths behind Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Maram and had a troubled trip to boot being checked at the half mile pole and steadied along the rail on the turn. Ascending Beyer's figures for the last 4 races indicate this is a 3 year old filly who is getting it. Favorite or not, this looks like the one to beat in this race.

The 2nd choice is #8 Soave at 5-1 in the morning line. Soave won a 30k Optional Claimer for non winners of 2 last out and now looks to step up her game. Kent Desormeaux has the reins. Soave is coming 3rd off a layoff into a stakes race. Trainer Thomas Bush is 28% (=5/2) with a positive ROI under these conditions. Hmm...3rd off layoff into a stakes race...actually sounds like a plan to me. At anything = or > than 4-1 Soave looks like a tasty choice to The Weasel.

The 3rd choice is the lone front-running speed in the race is the #7 Mother Russia. I can't tell you how much money I've lost betting against Linda Rice this season. Well, actually I can but I'm not going to. Last race out, Mother Russia wired the field at this distance and appears to be the only candidate that is capable of that feat again. Ramon Dominguez has ridden this horse 3 times and has won 3 times. Mother Russia is 4-1 in the morning line.

If you are looking for a long-shot try than the #2 Akilina at 12-1 in the morning line may be your huckleberry. Akilina is trained by noted turf trainer Clement Christophe and ridden by Rajiv Maragh. What you can't see in the racing form but can see if you look at the result chart in Formulator is that the 5th place finisher in Akilina's last race, Nedjma, won and was claimed in a 25k open claiming race next out. Along with Acquired Cat winning her next out, this becomes something of a hidden key race. Akilina has to get better to win, but if you can get a good price, take a shot. Be sure to use in the exotics.

The next PH race is the 9th at Saratoga, the G1 Forego for 3 and up contested at 7 furlongs.

Two horses stand out to me in this race so I'll just get down to it.

#2 Kodiak Kowboy has the to Beyer's for this race, has run in good form last two out, 3 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 over the surface. Seems to be the one to beat here. Trained by Larry Jones and ridden by Gabriel Saez, KK is also the 5-2 morning line favorite. I say,"If you can get 5-2 on KK, take it."

#4 Pyro is my 2nd choice and most likely where I will put my hard earned bucks if I play this race. Funny thing is, I burned a lot of money on Pyro as a 3 year old. Now he comes back and its like deja vu all over again. But...Pyro is coming off of a nice prep for bin Suroor Saeed who is 30% 2nd off layoffs coming into a G1 race. Again, sounds like a plan to me. Pyro is 4-1 in the morning line, and considering his checkered past, that seems about right.

Had a hard time going much deeper in this race, but after a lot of pondering I finally settled on the #7 Driven By Success for the 3rd choice. DBS has good early speed, which is always dangerous, but is not the only speed in the race, which is always dangerous to the early speed. Still DBS, a NY bred, has been competitive, if not entirely successful in open graded company finishing 3rd in the Metropolitan Hdcp and the Tom Fool Hdcp and would not be a complete surprise. Ramon Dominguez takes the seat, but Bruce Levine has been ice cold at the Spa so demand a price on this pony.

Finally we come to #6 Golden Trippi at 20-1 in the morning line. GT is the winner of Pyro's comeback race, so why 20-1. Perhaps its the lack of Graded success, but I would rather have GT than others in this race, so consider him a very tepid choice numero quatro.

Out to the other coast at Del Mar for the 8th race on that card The G1 Darly Debutante for 2 year old fillies.

The top choice here is the very unchalky 6-1 morning line runner #8 Repo. Repo has done nothing but win 3 of her 4 starts including two stakes victories. I don't understand the line makers reticence here except for possible the relatively low Beyer's figure last out. This is where I think reliance on Beyer's figures as a handicapping tool can be misleading. Repo stalked the pace last out, moved to win and won easily. It's not her fault the pacesetter was slow and its to Cory Nakatani's credit that he took no more from the horse than needed to win. But Cory will not be on Repo as we get a positive jockey change to Mr. Garrett Gomez for this race. Personally, I will be surprised if she goes off anything near 6-1 but will consider it a Prime bet if the line maker is correct.

#6 Mi Sueno is pick number 2 and the 9/5 morning line favorite. Mi Sueno comes off a G3 win where she turned the tables on 1st race foe and 3rd choice # 4 Necessary Evil. Both Mi Sueno and Necessary Evil are flattered that by the 4th place finisher in their last race, Camille C, who won a 100k overnight for Cal breds next out. Either of these two could take out the top choice Repo.

#3 Blind Luck is the 4th choice. 9-2 in the morning line, BL has won 2 races in 2 tries with speed to spare. The two races were a 4ok maiden claimer and a40k Starter allowance so she will need to step up in class some to compete here. But note she spotted the field over 7 lengths due to a bad start and still won by an easy 3.5 lengths.

Now for the race we all are waiting for the G1 Woodward.

#3 Rachel Alexandra's last out 116 is 6 points better than the next best Beyer's on the form and 9 points better than the next best last out, and she has improved her Beyer's for 10 consecutive races. How much better can she get? She is an obvious top pick and frankly, this race probably won't be playable.

As for the competition. #1 Da Tara has been disappointing since the 2008 Belmont Stakes, #2 Bullsbay seems unlikely to duplicate his 107 effort last out, #1a Cool Coal Man won by a huge margin last out and could upset the precocious filly, #4 Macho Again also ran his best ever figure last out in finishing 2nd, #5 It's a Bird (Birdonthewire not Birdstone) ships in for Marty Wolfson who won with Icon Project and is 18% with a positive ROI when shipping out for stakes races, #6 Asiatic Boy was considered for the Pacific Classic when Rachel declared her intentions showing how much confidence McLaughlin has here, and #7 Past The Point will have to regain his form from last fall to have a chance.

Here's the race in short hand

#3 Rachel Alexandra
#1a Cool Coal Man
#5 It'a A Bird
#2 Bullsbay

Good luck and see you tomorrow with the Pacific Classic

Leavin' On A Jet Plane

This will be my first physical trip to the Saratoga Race Course. Up until now I've only been there in my dreams. I already have Friday's card handicapped and am chomping at the bit for the Saturday past performances to become available. I hope they come out tomorrow so that my lap top can be left behind. My motel will not have wifi available. When the desk clerk was asked if they had wifi available in the room the response,"No, were in the mountains." When questioned about what being in the mountains had to do with internet access, I was informed that the library in town was open until 7:00.


So while I anxiously await Saturday's PP's I thought I might give a little update on the Handicapping the Handicapper project. Since the onset of this project, I have handicapped 161 races of various types. The table below shows the performance of my top 4 contenders.



The table shows that my top contender won nearly 30% of the races I handicapped. The 2nd almost 17%, 3rd 18% and 4th 14.5%. The reason each contender does not equal 161 is because there are occasionally races where I could not come up with 4, 3, or even 2 contenders I could make a legitimate case for (these races do not include any in which Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta participated).

These percentages, or probabilities of the contenders winning translates to the odds shown in the next to last column on the right. These odds indicate what my win expectancy for each contender level. The final column is my win expectancy + 50%. The extra 50% allows for an extra margin of error. Thus, the minimum odds I am able to take at this time is 7/2 and I require 9/1 for my Number 4 contender. It is easy to see that I have not been playing too many favorites to win.

In the original article, I suggested that by dividing races in categories such as Maiden Claiming, Maiden races, claiming and so on, one might be able to better refine the personal odds requirement for each type. In addition, I suggested the use of a moving average of 30 races for each type of race. Please check the archives for the original post, "Handicapping the Handicapper" for the details.

To build a quickie database to test while I was accumulating my personal data, I kept a record from races run at Calder Race Course. I discovered that 30 races were an insufficient base to work from as the odds didn't make sense in some cases. I expanded the number to 50 races, and found that at 50, the results made more sense in that the top choice of the collective betting public performed better than the 2nd, than the 3rd, than the 4th.

To date, I have not handicapped any single class of races 50 times yet. The largest category is graded stakes races with 26. This is because I have been trying to concentrate on better quality races over the Summer. In addition, I have been trying to become a little less parochial in my handicapping habits, so lack of personal time requires me to be more selective about which races I choose to handicap and play.

So for now I will continue to use the generalized table above although I think it is time to start a new one. As the number of races increases, the table becomes less responsive to my current handicapping prowess.

The 161 races yielded a total of 66 win or exacta wagers made. 42 win wagers and 70 exacta wagers on a total of 38 races. So using this method of creating a contender odds line has certainly had the desired effect of cutting the number of races played.

Of the 42 win wagers made a paltry 6 were winners for a 14.3% win rate. At an average 6.88-1 odds for winning wagers this resulted in $0.13 profit for each dollar wagered. Note this is not a $2.00 flat bet result as my wager size may vary depending on whether or not I'm including an exacta wager on the race. Also there are couple of winning wagers where the winner was obviously superior to the field and the odds sufficiently tasty that I couldn't resist and abandoned my system and played the low odds overlay (yes, there can be low odds overlays). Removing these from the database would have the effect of lowering the win rate, but the average winning odds would increase.

Surprisingly, the real money has been made playing the exactas. Of the 70 exacta wagers (2 to 6 individual exacta wagers per race) made 5 resulted in cashing a ticket for a 7.1% success rate. However, at an average return of 39.4-1 this results in a return of $2.01 for each dollar wagered. No confessions are required for this figure as all exacta wagers conform to the template of playing my overlay horse underneath the other contenders in the race. Seemingly, a very effective way of playing the races if one is able to contend with the inevitable losing streaks that are going occur in between the winners. For me the bottom line is am I showing a profit. The results here indicate that this method of setting acceptable odds is working.

A word about the exacta. I have found through experience that if my overlay horse is at odds of 5-1 or less, the payoff on the exacta is not usually worth the risk, especially if the other contenders are at lower odds. In this case, I just increase the win bet and leave out the exacta. Also, placing an exacta bet on such horses effectively lowers the odds on the overlay horse in such a way that should the horse win the extra money required for the exacta has destroyed the overlay price.

At this point, I am confident that once I am able to use odds for specific types of races, the method will really fine tune the odds I am able to accept on a race. For instance, after 26 Graded Stakes races, the required odds for the top choice is 5-1 based on a top contender success rate of 23%, but overnight stakes would require only 3-2 based on a 50% top rate after 20 races. In my opinion, this is where the real value of this exercise lays.

In conclusion, the purpose of Handicapping the Handicapper is to find an objective method of establishing an odds line for top contenders in the race. While there is still more work to be done before declaring the method successful, the interim results reported here show great promise.

A final note. It seems unlikely that I will be able to provide Public Handicapper selections for this weekend, so you're on your own.

Til Next time. Good Luck!

Big City Man No More

I went to the Bloodhorse.com to see if I could find an explanation for Indian Blessing's poor performance last out when the coincidence of coincidences occurred. Big City Man winner of this year's Dubai Golden Shaheen, in which Indian Blessing finished 2nd, died July 5th of a strangulated cecum. Apparently he showed signs of distress following his workout, was treated for colic and eventually taken to the clinic where surgery was performed and the ailment discovered. Read the full story here https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/51550/big-city-man-dies-of-strangulated-cecum.

Meanwhile, watching the last race on Indian Blessing, I have to question her soundness. In case your wondering about my sudden interest in Indian Blessing, it is due to the Summit of Speed and the G1 Princess Rooney Handicap which will be run at CRC on Saturday.

When I saw Indian Blessing was entered my first reaction was, "One race down." However, after further perusal of the form I began to wonder. Knowing that G1 type horses often dog it somewhat when coming back after rest, I found the last result of Indian Blessing's to be a puzzle all the same. Maybe she loses in a Grade 2 or even 3 race, but an overnight stakes? The comment reads,"weakened final furlong"

I watched the race and Indian Blessing appeared to be running along fine and seemed sure to catch the front running Coco Belle when she basically just ran out of gas.

Add to this her workouts. Bob Baffert works his horses fast. This is well known. On June 30 Indian Blessing runs a 4f bullet in 0:46 flat. July 6 over the same surface and distance its 48 and fifth. Baffert can't be happy about that. Indian Blessing has been heavily favored in at least her last 10 races. She may be a huge bet against this Saturday if heavily favored again.

Mid-Term Report

Well, really its a 3/4 term report as 3 of the 4 races are in the books for this week. Some comments on the races so far.

United Nations Hdcp.

What the Hell was the jockey colony thinking in allowing Presious Passion an uncontested 20 length lead within the first quarter of the race! Then along the backstretch, nobody was making up any ground on Presious Passion. Maybe they couldn't ,or maybe they weren't trying yet. At any rate, by the time they did start closing the gap, it was obvious they would not catch him.

As you know, I did not have Presious Passion picked to win; however, this particular scenario is not exactly what I had envisioned. I'm not shocked the horse won. There is no denying Presious Passion is one of the leading grass horses running right now. On the bright side, the German-bred Lauro managed to be second best for some Weasel vindication. And I don't mind getting beat by Elvis Trujillo who is an old Calder favorite and deserves to do well.

Firecracker Hdcp.

In this race we got the winner right, Mr. Sydney. No great feat there. The biggest surprise to me is that he paid 2-1 as I thought he might go a little lower. The Weasel play in this race was Tizdejavu at 9-1. Placed 2nd at the 3/4 pole, it looked as if there was a possibility he could move forward and go on to win, but he flattened out and was not a factor coming home.

Suburban Hdcp.

The Weasel managed to get this one right with the top two finishers albeit in the wrong order. That's OK as the Weasel play in this race was Dry Martini at 10-1. I do hope you got that one. The funny thing was that originally I had made Dry Martini the top choice, but, upon further thought put Asiatic Boy on top. That's what you get for thinking too much.

That leaves todays American Oaks from Hollywood. Beyond Gozzip Girl, I don't have a very good feel for this race. Take that under advisement if you use any of my opinions in your own handicapping decisions.

A word about the Handicapping the Handicapper project. I am approaching the idea in two ways at the moment. The ways have been chosen largely based on convenience. I have been following the betting pool selections for Calder Race Course since I play a lot of races there. One thing I've learned is that you play against the favorite in claiming races at your own peril at Calder as the Collective gets these right at about a 50% clip since I've been paying attention. The Collective is 37% accurate on the top choice in Maiden Claiming events. I think most of us would like to boast of those types of percentages. I know I would.

I don't have enough entries in other racing classifications yet for any meaningful numbers, but will update you as they come available. I am playing the Collective odds on the Maiden Claiming races as those are typically the last races I handicap on any card due to time constraints. Yesterday's card had 3 Maiden Claiming races. One race was a pass with no overlays, the 2nd race I played the 4th choice and lost. I should've played the 3rd choice, but the odds changed on me between laying the bet and the start of the race. I wait as long as I can and try to make the bet with 0 MTP as they're loading if I can. I can't help what happens after that. As it turns out, the 3rd choice won paying a nice 8-1 price. Finally got a winner betting a 2-1 favorite, actually needed 5-2, but again.....

That's a constant problem when one's play is dependent on the odds. It seems like a problem that could be solved by the data providers if they chose to do so. Friday, I bet a horse at 7-1, the minimum I required to bet the horse, at 0 MTP. By the time I got back to my seat, a five second walk, the odds had dropped to 5-1. The odds dropped 2 more ticks to 4-1 after the race had started. Is the tote system really that slow or is there some past posting going on here? Either way, it does make life difficult for a handicapper who's decisions are based odds and not selections.

Ok that's it for today. Don't forget to play the HANA race at Hollywood today (Race 8).

Public Handicapper and HANA selections for June 27

I'm back. And I have some interesting races to talk about today. If my odds line looks peculiar to you, read the previous article as I am trying something novel and different. If it works out, then maybe I too, your humble Chalk Eating Weasel, can join the pantheon of great handicapping authors.

Now for the races.

Colonial Da Hoss Stakes 50k Inner Turf for 3up


Colonial R9
4:39

Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Auction Watch
4-1
6-1
#5 Jungle Fighter
7-2
5-1
#7 Baltimore Bob
7-2
5-1
#10 Frisky Thunder
6-1
9-1
#2 Auction Watch comes off a 3 digit (Brisnet) Opt Claiming win is 2 for 2 at the distance and 5 for 9 on the sod. Running style is suited for the course and Sheldon Russell is familiar with grounds so look for a good trip. #5 Jungle Fighter is 2 for 2 over CNL turf. This horse for the course is coming 2nd off layoff and should be a factor if he can regain his previous form. #7 Baltimore Bob may be the best of the group, but when the going gets tough, he always seems to come up short. #10 Frisky Thunder should be able to set the early pace and if he is allowed to relax may go all the way. The only other Quirin "E" horse is just not as fast. FT could steal the race for a price.

Monmouth Boiling Springs Stakes G3 150k Turf 3yo fillies


Monmouth R9
4:50

Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#5 Bluegrass Princess
4-1
6-1
#3 My Magic Moment
7-2
5-1
#2 Platinum Girl
7-2
5-1
#1 Mary's Follies
6-1
9-1
#5 BP finally finds a graded event without Gozzip Girl to run in. The McLaughlin trainee has been ITM last 4 out and should find the winner's circle with Eddie Castro this time. #3 MMM is a stakes winner and may be ready to deny BP that first win on the Turf. Thomas Albertrani is 25% winner with +ROI in Graded events and Elvis Trujillo is no stranger to the winner's circle in big races. #2 PG wired the field in May, but has never won at this distance in 3 tries. Will have to contend again with pressure from Sandi's Ready. Should point out that PG beat MMM last out. #1 Has nothing really going for her except that she looks to be the type of improving 3yo that one should be on the look out for in these types of races.

The HANA Race of the week

Arlington 5f turf Clm 35k for 3 up


#8 Maneke
4-1
6-1
#1 Mitigation
7-2
5-1
#6 Boots Are Walking
7-2
5-1
#11 The Nth Degree
6-1
9-1
#8 Won at this level and distance 2 back on the main track and is a proven commodity on Turf and the distance. Drops back after a good effort in an Optional Claiming event. #1 Mitigation drops 1 level after finishing 3/4 lengths behind next out winner. Has the ability to win here. #6 BAW is the horse for course with 3 wins in 7 tries. He could catch the top choice with a little luck. #11 could be the longshot special of the day. 12/1 in the ML the 8yo gelding gets some much needed class relief after running against much better and a nice rider upgrade with E. T. Baird.

Canterbury Minnesota H.B.P.A Mile (Turf) fillies and mares 3 up


Canterbury R8
6:03

Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#10 Si Si Mon Amie
4-1
6-1
#6 Mizzcan'tbewrong
7-2
5-1
#1 Quiet Queen
7-2
5-1
#5 Lindsey's Wish
6-1
9-1
#10 Si Si Mon Amie easily looks to be the one to beat here; however I doubt there will be anything approaching the 4/1 ML here. #6 Mizzcan'tbewrong along with Fabulous Babe should be setting the early fraction, but that running style doesn't seem to work well here. #1 Quiet Queen looks to be on the improve lately and has won at this level before could get there if the trend continues. #5 Lindsey's Wish comes out of a 3rd place finish at PRM against similar. Kelly Von Hemel is 24% +ROI going Dirt to Turf.

Prarie Meadows Cornhusker G2 9 furlongs 3 up (doubt I'll be awake for this one)


Prarie Meadows R9
11:17
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 My Pal Charlie
4-1
6-1
#5 Shadowbdancing
7-2
5-1
#6 Wayzata Bay
7-2
5-1
#8 Jonesboro
6-1
9-1
#2 MPC along with Jonesboro, appears to be the class of the field, but the latter has never won at this distance so I'm giving the nod to MPC. #5 Shadowbdancing: going with some local talent for shots at the prize. #5 has had 3 digit Bris Figures last two out while going wire to wire. 3 for 4 at PRM and all 3 are stakes wins, looking to step up here. #6 WB was last years Cornhusker winner and hopes history will repeat after using the Jim Rasmussen Mem. H. as a tune up for the big race. #8 Jonesboro (class of '74 if your interested) is always in the thick of it and I expect nothing less here. But if you look at the 9f races, he always seems to hit the wall at this distance.

That's it for this week. As I said, please check out the previous article. I think a lot of readers may have missed it because the TBA Feed seemed to be hung up for a couple of days. I think you'll find it thought provoking, if nothing else.

Handicapping The Handicapper

Firstly, my apologies for not posting the HANA and Public Handicappers picks this week. It was just one of those weeks and I didn't have the time to make the post. You didn't miss much with the PH races; however, I am sorry you missed the my only overlay out of 4 contenders in the 7th at Monmouth, Themanmythnlegend ridden by the stunning Shannon Uske, who rode a terrific race to guide Themanmythnlegend through some horrific traffic down the stretch and get her mount up in time, and trained by Lloyd Kromann. Themanmythnlegend paid 24.60 to win.





While driving down the street one recent day, I revealed to my lovely wife that I'd like to write a book sometime before I pass on to whatever awaits after this life. Because of my line of work, I am a published author in a few respected scientific journals. Although I must admit that other people did the writing. That is the way it works in the scientific world where the principle investigator usually does the writing and gives co-authorship to others who contributed in some way to the generating of the published work.





My wife asked me what I would write about and I answered,"I don't really know, I just know I'd like to write a book, novel or something." Of course, she suggested I write a book on horse racing since that is how I spend most of my spare time. Unfortunately, I had to confess that there is not much new I could really introduce on the subject since nearly all of what I have learned has come from the writings of others on the topic. In that respect, I can only parrot those who have written before me. What would be the point?





Now, for those 2 of you who have followed this blog from the beginning, you know that I am big on creating an odds line on my favorite contender for any race I contemplate playing. This is not my creation but is promoted by such racing-author luminaries as Barry Meadow, Mark Cramer, and Steve Fiero. I love their books and highly recommend each and everyone of them.





However, one major flaw I find in all of these books is that while each of them promote the making of an odds line for contenders, or even the entire field, in a race, each of them come up short in the how to exactly make an accurate odds line. Steve Fiero does offer a handy chart to help set up an odds line for 3 and 4 contender races where your contenders are assigned an overall probability of 80% to win the race. Mark Cramer in his book, "The Odds On Your Side" makes an attempt at giving a more defined process of creating an odds line, but it still requires that you assign a % value of one or more factors which will influence the outcome of the race and how each horse will either benefit or be disadvantaged by such factors. In the end, it is no less subjective than any other method of assigning an odds line.





Before going any further, let me explain to those who may not know that odds are simply another way of stating the probability of an event occurring. In our case, a particular horse winning the race. I typically think in terms of probabilities rather than odds because that is how my mind has been trained for many years; however, converting probabilities to odds is a simple mathematic operation. For instance, if you believe a horse has a 25% chance of winning the race the odds are 3-1. The conversion is simple: 1/0.25 = 4 then 4-1 =3 and, voila, 3-1 is the odds of your 25% chance.





Calculating odds from probabilities is a simple process. Assigning probabilities is not so simple. There are many factors and a high degree of randomness in any race. As a handicapper, we have to weigh every factor against the other in an attempt to decipher the horses most deserving of being considered contenders in the race. Then, if you are concerned with getting a fair price for your investment, you have to make your best guess as to what the proper odds for each contender may be. And a guess is just what it is.



There are computer programs available that will do this guessing for you. Check out Brisnet.com where you can choose from several free downloads. I tried the Allways program a few times a couple of years ago. Wasn't really all that impressed. But the truth is, any program you use to choose contenders is basically guessing. Someone had to write the program, and, in the writing of the program, had to weigh various performance and statistical factors so that the program can make a decision and assign a probability. A question you should ask yourself is how the programmer arrived at the different weightings? Perhaps the programmer used a very strict statistical method to arrive at the weightings. Perhaps the programmer used some trial and error with a lot of back testing to arrive at the ratings. Remember past performance is no guarantee of future returns.



Computers are marvelous inventions and most excellent at crunching numbers. We use computers to send spacecraft to Mars and beyond. Some computers are capable of defeating the best human chess players. But I doubt there will ever be a computer that can out handicap a good horseplayer. Computers are not so good with intangibles. What computer predicted that Dunkirk was going to set the pace in the Belmont Stakes? Maybe Todd Pletcher's. Maybe Mr. Pletcher has a program that calculated the best chance Dunkirk had to win the race was to surprise everyone and go to the front. Somehow I doubt it. If you have a computer program that consistently keeps you ahead of the game I want to know about it. Not that I would use it, because that would take all the fun out of the game.



So the question becomes, if all our best efforts at making an odds line amount to mere guess work, then where can we find hard numbers from which to make an odds line. I'm here to suggest that one has to look no further than one's own performance to make an odds line. Handicap the handicappper.



Yes you read correctly. Keep a record of how often your top choice, 2nd choice, 3rd, 4th, etc. win and base your odds on the winning percentage of each. For instance, if you are a very good handicapper and your top choice wins 33% of the time than you can make the odds for that choice 2-1. If I had the odds at 2-1, then I would ask for 3-1 before playing, but you can make that decision for yourself.



Its important while doing this to keep your records as close to being a reflection of your current performance as possible. After all, unless you are Super Handicapper you go through hot streaks and cold streaks just as I do. If you can track your performance in such a way then you would be able to bet more at lower odds when hot and less at higher odds when chilly maximizing the return on your investment. For this purpose, I recommend using a 30 race moving average.



Creating a moving average is simple. Once you add a result at the end of a series, remove the result at the beginning of the series. For example, when I add result 31 to my records, I remove result number 1 from the average. When result number 32 is added, then result number 2 is removed and on and on and on.



Now the number 30 for the moving average was not pulled out of thin air. For statistical purposes 30 events is usually considered significant for giving reliable data. One drawback of using a moving average is that it is a lagging statistic. If we used, for instance, a 60 race moving average, it may be a better overall indication of our handicapping ability, but it would be less reflective of our current performance.

Now the real beauty of this methodology is that you can conceivably handicap an entire race card without ever looking at a past performance. Does your local newspaper have a handicapper? You could handicap how well he does with his picks. Calculate odds for each selection and play off the local tout's picks.

Another possibility is to handicap how well the masses are at picking winners. Check out the results charts for any track you are interested in and calculate how often the first, second, third and fourth choices come in. If you choose the to handicap masses, I suggest you divide the races into logical divisions such as dirt and turf, sprints and routes, maiden claimers and stakes races, etc. The choices are nearly limitless.

Now in the interest of full disclosure, I have to admit that I really have not tried this out on anything but my own performance. And the moving average thing, that's just something that I came up with as I was brainstorming the idea. But, at least, using this method, you have something concrete to base your line on. I don't know about you but this idea makes perfect sense to me. On the other hand, perhaps this will merely qualify as another whacky betting method. There is one way to find out. Run the numbers.

I'll be back in a day or two with my HANA and PH picks for Saturday. The HANA race will be the 9th at Arlington Park. A 5 furlong Turf Sprint, one of my favorites.

Mea Culpa

Back for a little look at how the picks did last Saturday, but first a word about the condition of Rene Douglas. I thought I had heard reported on TVG that a full recovery is expected for Rene Douglas. I have not been able to confirm that from any other source. Hence, I believe that I misheard whatever was said about his condition. If my error has caused anyone distress, my bad. Still, let's hope my error turns out to be correct.

I am getting so inundated with punditry regarding the Belmont that I'm not sure I can maintain my objectivity in approaching the race. I may have to pass the race on that basis alone. No doubt the race will be a Public Handicapper race, so I'll have to take a shot for the contest. However, I am hearing so much about Summer Bird, Charitable Man, Dunkirk, et.al. that it may all be too confuddled in my little head. The one horse that doesn't seem to be getting much pundit respect is Mine That Bird. Most pundits seem to think he's beatable here, and their probably right as far as it goes. Be that as it may, I will look at the pp's once they're out and, of course, let you know what I think about the race. I just worry that it will not be my opinion.

Last Saturday was a good day for the Weasel as he had the winner in 2 of 4 races. Ironically, it was the other two races the Weasel actually cashed in on. The Weasel passed the the McKayMacKenna Stakes and the Golden Gate Fields Turf Stakes due to a lack of overlays.

Spring House was an easy choice in the Golden Gate Fields, and I felt the only horse that had a real chance to upset the 3 to 5 favorite was Yacht Spotter. However, I felt that Shem, starting from the inside post, would deny Yacht Spotter the opportunity to get loose and comfortable on the lead. I was wrong as Shem was content to sit 2 to 3 lengths off the leading Yacht Spotter for 6 furlongs before fading into oblivion. Perhaps Shem was trying and just wasn't fast enough, I dunno. Still, even with the easy lead Spring House was too much for the rest of the field and Yacht Spotter at the end. A good race to pass.

The McKayMacKenna Stakes at Belmont is a little more frustrating. True, I had the winner, and had I followed my usual custom of key boxing my win bet with the other contenders I'd have had a decent exacta as well. And if I had gone so far as to fashion some sort of trifecta keying on the win choice...well you get where I'm going here as I had the top three finishers with only La Hernanda disappointing. This is where the betting line comes in and I have to question if my line was accurate. 5-2 really isn't a bad price to get on a favorite. Officially the final price was 2.3-1 but Scolara sat at 5-2 for most of the time. This race was restricted to non winners of major stakes and was particularly competitive as a result. I still thought Scolara was a little bit of a stand out over the others so the question becomes, was I too cautious in making Scolara 2-1. According to the racetype stats available in the Brisnet Ultimate PP's the favorite wins this particular type race 25% of the time which equates to 3-1 in odds. Unfortunately, this particular statistic is only based on 4 races, so it is not a particularly strong number to use. For instance, if a similar race is carded this Saturday the stat would say the favorite wins 40% of the time equating to odds of 3-2. Quite a difference.

So there is the conundrum. You can see by my picks that I'm not trying tout some wiseguy pick. No shouting,"COME SEE THE CHALK EATING WEASEL'S 20-1 MORTAL LOCK PICK OF THE DAY." My edge, at least I think it is my edge, is the ability to more accurately determine a horses probability of winning than the betting collective. Now, I'm not so arrogant as to think I'm smarter than the rest of the world. The crowd collectively gets it right for the most part. I just look for those little tremors in the force, to use a little Star Wars reference. So after all of this is said and done, I'm still not sure if my line for this race as accurate as it could've been.

I think I found a couple of tremors in the force in the Aristides and the Gamely stakes. In the Aristides, my favorite was Semaphore Man. The favoritism was based largely on his consistent performance over 3 different dirt surfaces: Oaklawn, Retama, and Fairgrounds. Reminded me of another recent Kelly Von Hemel stakes winner (remember Euphony?).

I was surprised Semaphore Man was not more heavily played, but at 6-1 he was a slam dunk for a wager and he almost pulled it off getting beat down the stretch by Bold Start. Luckily for me, I called an audible when I found out Cassoulet had been scratched and substituted Bold Start as a contender. I'd like to take credit for that piece of fancy footwork the the truth is I just substituted Public Handicapper's Carsoni's pick as he had posted it in the HANA group and the reasoning made sense to me. Thank's Carsoni! Following my custom of the exacta as place bet, the result was a winning wager for the race.

The other tremor in the force I found was Magical Fantasy in the Gamely Stakes. I honestly thought Black Mamba was the best horse in the race and Diamond Diva was definitely a horse for the course. But Magical Fantasy had beaten Black Mamba one race ago and was getting no respect at 6-1. Again, a slam dunk win wager. If only Diamond Diva could've held off Visit and completed the exacta.

Well, it's a little hard to be self critical when one was as on as I was last week. You really can learn more from your losses than your wins. However it is more fun to revel in wins. I would like to know what woke up Visit who so far has been nothing but an also ran in the States. Of course, Visit was still an also ran here, but showed a little spunk this time. I think, up until this race, that spunk has been lacking. Perhaps a horse on the improve that may be worth a closer look next race.

Ok, I also just brainstormed a betting strategy combining the Pick-3 with use of exactas, but I'll have to save that for another time.

See you for the Belmont

Jeff aka Chalk Eating Weasel