Showing posts with label Case the Race. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Case the Race. Show all posts

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Waiting For The Cup

I don't really feel like doing the Public Handicapper races today. Does that make me a bad person? The week has been full. I really haven't had the time to get into them and do them justice. As I've said before, better not to do them at all than to be half-assed about it.

I'll make it up to you, I promise. For starters, I have the entire 13 race CRC card scoped out for you. The weather is expected to be sunny and warm so all the races scheduled for turf should actually make it to the sod today.

In addition, I will bring selections for all the Breeder's Cup races as I get them. I actually have the early entries now, but I can't see wasting all the ink, paper, and time putting any effort into them until the entries have been finalized and the post positions drawn. I think that happens on Tuesday, so I'll be working all day Wednesday and probably most of Thursday poring over racing forms and results charts.

My general game plan for the big event will be to play CRC on both days as I normally would and try to be selective and pick my spots with the Cup races. We'll see if I can resist the temptation to plunge my brains out on each race.

Reminder that my stint as a guest handicapper at http://www.casetherace.com/ continues this week with a full analysis of today's race 8 at CRC.

Calder Race Track Selections for October 31.

Race 1: 1 mile Clm6250N2L for fillies and mares 3 years old and up

#7 Cynthia's Secret
#1 Caveat Cat
#8 Dibs On Debbie
#3 Honey Of A Dream

Race 2: 6.5 fur. Clm16000N2L fillies 2 years old

#2 Grand Decision
#1 Forgiven
#3 She's A Mambo
#5 Full N Sassy

Race 3: 1 mile Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for fillies 2 years old

#3 Golden Humor
#2b Kate's Holiday
#1a Super Girlie
#7 Come Sunday

Race 4: 7.5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 21k for fillies 3, 4, and 5 years old

#7 Lady Zeig
#5 Manerbe
#8 Two Cheers
#6 Starland Queen

Race 5: 6.5 fur. Starter Alw 16000 for 3 years old and up

#6 Starship Valor
#8 Caixa Eletronica
#3 Christmas Parade

Race 6: 5 fur. MdClm 12500 for fillies and mares 3, 4, and 5 years old

#9 High Dollar Escort
#10 My Espresso
#12 Savannah Sings

Race 7: 8.5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 years old

#5 Big Joey
#7 Lion Thunder
#11 Mr. Postman
#10 Bold Tiger

Race 8: 7 fur. Clm10000b 3 years old and 4 years old and upward which have never won three races

#5 Brandy Bai
#4 Girl Band
#1 One Proud Cat
#3 My Best China

See http://www.casetherace.com/ for full analysis

Race 9: 5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 year olds

#5 Sliding In
#3 More Drama
#7 Tiger Willie
#2 Fortunate Rooster

Race 10: 5.5 fur. Clm12500N2L for 2 year olds

#3 My Good Friend
#8 Mega Party
#4 Nothing's Perfect
#6 By Your Side

Pick 4 tickets for races 7-10 brought to you by DRF's Ticketmaker and the Chalk Eating Weasel

1. 5/5/5/3 times 2
2. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/5/3
3. 5/5/3,7/3
4. 5/5/5/4,6,8
5. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/3,7/3
6. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/5/4,6,8
7. 5/5/3,7/4,6,8
8. 5/5/2/3

Total cost $25.00 for a .50 base bet

Race 11: 1 mile(Turf) Alw 21700N1X for 3 year olds and upward

#8 Regis
#1 Bandit Prince
#11 Caravel
#3 Sky Gate

Race 12: 6 fur. Starter Alw 16000 for fillies and mares 3 years old and upward.

#2 Wyatt's Women
#7 Margaret Smile
#5 Meadow Touch
#8 Suave Royalty

Race 13: 1 mile Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 year olds

#5 Forty Nine Acres
#1 Taxes Taxes Taxes
#4 Hellen's Cause
#9 Backstage Lounge

That's all for today. Good Luck and enjoy the races

Saturday, October 24, 2009

Making the Case

Here it is 7:30 in the morning and I'm looking out the window to the south watching the morning clouds roll in off the ocean and hoping they aren't bring any rain for the turf course at Calder today.

Today I get to bring you 4 more races from the Public Handicappers contest so sit back, relax, and the Weasel take you through some nice competitive racing.

The first race comes from Laurel Park in Maryland. Its the 9th race on the card, The Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash a Grade 1 affair contested at 6 furlongs for 3 year olds and upward.

Vineyard Haven, the DQ'd runner up to Capt Candyman Can in the King's Bishop at Saratoga is the headliner for this race, but he will not be alone in this competitive field of 9.

The race shapes up with a lot of front running types to be vying for the early lead. If this becomes the story of this race then the set up will be perfect for the horse that can stalk from off the pace and we have such a horse in this field in #3 Ravalo.

Stalk and pounce is the modus operandi for Ravalo, and he is capable of running the triple digit figure that will be required to win this race making him the top choice over the likely favorite Vineyard Haven.

Of course, it may be the Vineyard Haven is just too good for the field. The 3 year old is working well and showing no ill effects from its shoving match with Capt Candyman Can back in August. Alan Garcia will get the call. The Godolphin Racing entry will be tough to beat.

The #6 horse, Peace Chant, is another that may benefit if the early pace is too hectic. Peace Chant is a lightly raced 6 year old with only 15 starts indicating that ol' PC has been spending a lot of time on the disabled list. In his last, the Forego-G1, Peace Chant was making a strong late bid when he got cut off and lost the big mo. The DRF comment box notes that although Peace Chant primarily raced on the West Coast, all four of his wins have come on dirt. Looks like he has a puncher's chance in this one to me.

Finally #4 Fleet Valid is one that can sit close to the early leaders and take over when the time is right. Fleet Valid has won 4 in a row at Monmouth including 2 non graded stakes events. He is another contender that is capable of posting triple digit Beyer's in this race.

So while Vineyard Haven may be the one to beat in this race, don't look for the rest of the field to roll over for him. Below are the selections in order of preference.

#3 Ravalo

#1 Vineyard Haven

#6 Peace Chant

#4 Fleet Valid

For the 9th race at Keeneland, The Lexus Raven Run G2. I just have to throw my hands up and say pick 'em. There are 16 entered, 14 will run, and it is possible to make a case for just about all of them. I'm going to have to stick with the obvious in this one.

Both the #8 Flashing and #4 Pretty Prolific are coming out of key races, so I am making them tepid 1,2 favorites here. The horse I will probably play and key exotics around will be my 3rd choice #5 Jardin.

Jardin is coming 3rd back off a layoff and trainer Thomas Albertrani is 35% with a +ROI in the last 2 years with this angle. Since I think Jardin will be something better than 9-5 in this field, I will at least have the satisfaction of having a sound statistical overlay to play. Of course in this large a field, any horse is likely to offer a reasonable price.

Finally the 4th choice will be #11 Sky Haven who is a proven syn runner for Asmussen with some nice Beyer's and Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard.

This looks like a great trifecta opportunity if you can somehow narrow the bet size down to something manageable.

The selections are

8. Flashing

4. Pretty Prolific

5. Jardin

11 Sky Haven

At 8:53 am This just in. Raining at Calder.

The 9th at Belmont is the 32nd running of The Hudson for State breds 3 and up

Finally, a race that isn't a real head scratcher

Although a New York bred, #1 Driven By Success has had some success racing in open graded company and has been dominant against the state breds making him an easy top choice.

The one NY bred that has recently had some luck against DBS is #11 Law Enforcement. Don't worry about his last in the Forego. I expect he will come back with some run in this easier spot.

The 3rd choice, #4 Legal Consent, broke poorly last out. However, he has earned a lot of money racing against his fellow state breds and has an affinity for the track and the distance.

After these 3 its anybody's guess in this race although, I suppose you could consider #9 Be Bullish who benefitted from Legal Consent's problems last out. Still, I figure Driven By Success will be the one to beat here.

1. Driven By Success

11. Law Enforcement

4. Legal Consent

9. Be Bullish

Finally, another contest for state-breds from Belmont Park the 1oth race is the 24th running of The Empire Classic for 3 and up.

This is the race Michael Maker is finally going to win one for the Weasel. There is no doubt in my mind that Future Prospect is the best bet of the 4 races if you wish to cash a ticket. That said if Future Prospect is a paltry 1-2 as he was last out, I will pass the race.

The 2nd choice is the #5 Haynesfield coming off a good off the bench effort last out he should move forward off of that race for Steve Asmussen and rider Ramon Dominguez

The 3rd choice goes to #2 Slevin. Coming 3rd off the layoff he has had 2 strong efforts and just needs a little luck here to make his first stakes score.

Finally the 4th choice will the #4 Weathered. Weathered is appreciated for his game efforts in open company which is always a plus when looking at state bred restricted races such as this one. A 50% winner, Weathered knows how to find the wire first and would not be a big surprise.

The choices

#6 Future Prospect

#5 Haynesfield

#2 Slevin

#4 Weathered.

As always, when looking at these selections, one should take into account the odds on each horse and perhaps play or key on the one that seems to offer the most value to you. If one of these picks has a particularly long price, take a good look at the horse. It is possible that I am just off-base with the selection. It is also possible that I have seen something others have missed. That is the decision you must take responsibility for.

Hey!!! Check out my selection for the 12th race for Calder Race Course today. Hopefully it will stay on the grass, but since most of the runners are more experienced on the main track, it may not make all that much difference. To check out my selection visit http://www.casetherace.com/ The analysis is really there today, I checked it out myself.

As always Good Luck with your selections in todays racing and enjoy the races.

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Festival of the Sun

As I write this from my Florida room a mere few minutes from Calder Race Course the skies are sunny with the temperature at 77o. Contrast to Toronto where the temperature is a chilly 34 with Rain/Snow showers forecast.

I actually have the Nearctic and Candian International Races handicapped, but considering the current conditions, I feel that all that work is out the window into the bright Florida sunshine now. Instead, I will bring you the 11th race from Calder, the G3 Spendabuck Hcp and the Senator Ken Maddy Hdcp (G3) from Santa Anita.

As a bonus, to make up for the rainy/snowy Woodbine race, I will give you my stakes picks for the other Calder stakes on this big South Florida Racing day.

Now for race 11 from CRC

With the exception of Lady Shatzi who is making her North American debut from Peru, the horses running in this race are old friends who have frequently shared the same track.

Of this group, #9 Motovato, trained by Marty Wolfson and ridden by Eddie Castro is clearly the class of the field as the winner of 2 of the last 3 stakes he has run at Calder including a 2nd place finish behind the late Finallymadeit in the G3 Memorial Day Hdcp. I do have a race where I will try to beat Wolfson, just not this one.

The 2nd choice #10 Mambo Meister has spent most of the Summer running on grass but has also shown ability on dirt. Therefore, the surface switch should be of no consequence. Mambo Meister is a capable 4 year old who gets leading rider Manoel Cruz in the irons. Manny is definitely better on dirt than grass (a little CRC hint: I nearly always consider Cruz a bet against on turf). Mambo's last 3 have all been graded affairs up at Saratoga and Monmouth so he will definitely be feeling the class relief in this field.

The #4 Dream Maestro is getting little respect from the morning line maker at 12-1 and the DRF analysts not even getting a nod for 3rd position on the selection sheet. However the Maestro has run some good races and always seems to be hanging around in the money at the end. It may be true that Dream Maestro suffers a bit of seconditis with 9 places in 22 tries, but I don't see how you can completely discount this consistent contender. I wouldn't play him at 2-1 but 12-1 could be another story.

Finally the 4th choice is the #1 Imawildandcrazyguy who won on the slop last out. Really, this is more of a nod to the abilities of Eibar Coa who seems to dominate when he runs at Calder rather than the ability of this one time KY Derby entrant. However, Imawildandcrazyguy exhibits a lot of back class with winnings of $626,745 easily out distancing the other contenders in the field. Play only at a large price.

#9 Motovato
#10 Mambo Meister
#4 Dream Maestro
#1 Imawildandcrazyguy

Off to The Oak Tree at Santa Anita and the SKMaddyH at 6.5f.

The top choice #2 Gotta Have Her has been in the money for her last 8 and 9 of her last 10. She is 3 for 3 at this distance and has 4 for 8 winners at Santa Anita including a G2 win in the Palomar Hdcp last out. Just flat out looks like the one to beat to me.

Maybe #4 Reba Is Tops can be the one to do it. She probably needed her last, finishing 2nd in the Daisycutter at Del Mar and should move forward this time out. She will be tough to beat if she does. Joe Talamo gets the call. Joe and Reba have been a potent combo since teaming up 4 races ago with 2 firsts and 2 seconds. I expect more of the same here.

#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle (ooh that is going to make the spell checker go nuts) is the 3rd choice. She is the defending champ and is showing no indication in her recent outings of slowing down. Other than she appears to be in top form at the moment, what more is there to say here.

#5 Tuscan Evening rounds out the contender list in this top field as she returns to a distance that is certainly more to her liking. Fagettabout her last effort at 9 furlongs. This race is where she belongs.

Honestly, there is not much to choose from between these 4. If you want my advice I'd play whichever of the 4 has the longest odds and be very happy about my chances of winning

#2 Gotta Have Her
#4 Reba Is Tops
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle
#5 Tuscan Evening

Without comment here are my other Stakes pick for CRC today

Race 6 The Birdonthewire for 2 yo's 5.5 f

#8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
#5 Mr. Green
#7 Peace At Dawn
#3 Simplifying

Although I haven't been able to find it yet, you should be able to view my full analysis of this race at www.casetherace.com.

Race 7 The Florida Stallion My Dear Girl 400k for 2 yo fillies

#4 Winsockie
#6 Sweetlalabye
#1 Joanie's Catch
#5 Tillie The Tigress

Race 8 The Calder Oaks for 3yo fillies 75k

#6 Providanza
#3 Royal Card
#4 Fire Water

Race 9 The Florida Stallion In Reality for 2 yo's 400k

#6 Jackson Bend
#3 Thank U Philippe
#4 Bim Bam
#8 Allez Reef

Race 10 The Calder Derby(G3) for 3yo's 100k

#3 Sal the Barber (My pick 4 single)
#6 Grand Cash
#2 Livingston Street
#9 Pound Foolish

Race 12 The Cassidy for fillies, 2yo's 75k

#2 Sweet Like Sugar
#7 Rosebud's Ridge
#1 Lavender's Spirit
#6 Slavic Princess

Finally, just in case you're interested, my picks for the two races from Woodbine before I became aware of the conditions

Race 8 The Nearctic (G2)

#11 Jungle Wave
#1 Field Commission
#9 Hero's Reward
#4 Karakorum Elektra

Race 10 The Pattison Canadian International (G1)

#4 Just As Well
#7 Juke Box Jury
#3 Quijano
#8 Spice Route

That's it for this week. Enjoy the racing and Good Luck