Quickly back with the last 3 races of Calder's Summit of Speed.
The Carry Back Stakes, Race 9 on your program consists of D' Funnybone and 4 pretenders necessary to fill the race. D' Funnybone consistently runs 6f almost 2 seconds faster than any of the others. The only way to play this race is to use D' Funnybone as a single in your Pick 4
As I said this is just a quickie as I would like to take a look at todays Belmont Card before heading to the races.
For the G3 Azalea Stakes #5 Buckleupbuttercup turns back in distance and trainer Eddie Kenneally is 33% with the Route to Sprint maneuver. #8 Pica Slew blistered the track here in the Leave Me Alone Stakes on Pre-View day so look for another good showing from her. Finally Bronx City Girl is first of the claim for Marty Wolfson. Marty doesn't play the claiming game very often but he does it at a 78% success rate next out. Still #6BCG has not proven herself in any way in stakes competition and only merits 3rd choice.
Odds
#5 Buckleupbuttercup play at 2/1 or better
#8 Pica Slew play at 9/2 or better
#6 Bronx City Girl plat at 9/1 or better.
The 11th race, The Princess Rooney Handicap-G1, is a good contentious affair. Again there are 6 or maybe 7 that have legit chances here, but I have to settle on only 3 or in this case 4 contenders. #7 Dr. Zic is one who didn't make the cut although I wouldn't be surprised if she wires the field. #13 First Passage is a horse for the course, but I think her late closing running style combined with the far outside draw hurts her chances here. Still watch for the weather, a drying track at Calder can do funny things to the track profile, and for scratches which may move First Passage a few lanes closer to the rail.
The 4 I settled on are #8 Dubai Majesty, almost another horse for the course with 3 wins in 8 races coming out of a G3 win in the Winning Colors at Churchill Downs. #9 Warbling who is probably as good as if not better than Dubai Majesty, just don't know how she'll handle the track. #5 Mother Ruth who just has the look of a horse that has suddenly learned what its all about. and #4 Hour Glass who is 4 of 5 at the distance and comes of a G2 win at Belmont, Vagrancy Handicap.
Playable odds
#8 Dubai Majesty 9/2
#9 Warbling 5/1
#5 Mother Ruth 7/1
#4 Hour Glass 8/1
That's all today.
I'm gone
Showing posts with label Calder Race Course. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Calder Race Course. Show all posts
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Grade 2 Smile Sprint Handicap from Calder Race Course
On July 10 Calder Race Course (and casino) will be holding their annual Summit of Speed. This year I will bring some of my feelings on the races beginning today with Race 10 in your program, the Smile Sprint Handicap. As is my custom, I will be attending the races live and might even stray from the simulcast monitors long enough to go down and look at the horses if it's not raining. Look for me. I'll have on the sunglasses and the brown HANA (Horseplayers Association of North America) cap. Speaking of HANA. After this day is over, I am going to write an article regarding my take on the day and how well, or poorly Calder Race Course (and casino) handled what should be a large crowd and submit it to HANA for posting on their website.
The Smile Sprint looks to be an exciting race on paper. 13 are entered. Personally I'd like to see at least 5 of the entries scratched as I don't think they really belong in this race. Rusty Charlie was passed as if he was standing still when he faced of against Big Drama in what was certainly a tune up race for the latter 2 back. Trainer Francisco Machado then foolishly brought ol' Rusty back on 7 days rest for another overnight try in which Charlie failed miserably. give ol' Rusty a break because he doesn't belong with these.
Sincero, Gato Go Win, How's Your Halo, Causeway's Kin, Not For Silver, and Golden Spikes are the other non-contenders of which, with varying degrees of vehemence, I would like to see exit the race gracefully pre-post.
This still leaves us with a nice contentious race consisting of #2 Go Go Shoot trained by Pletcher with David Cohen on board. I don't recall ever seeing Cohen ride for Pletcher, but, according to Brisnet's Ultimate PP's he's done 15 times in the last 60 days and done it quite well with a 45% win rate. Go Go Shoot has some flashy speed and should set the pace or certainly be a major pace factor on a speed favoring track. But there is a lot of other speed in this race and horses like Rusty Charlie, Causeway's Kin or Taqarub may force him to go faster than he'd like early on. Go Go Shoot has run twice before on the Calder Course and has yet to show any particular liking for the surface. I think Saturday will be more or the same in that regard for Go Go Shoot.
#13 Snapshot is the other horse in this race I think could win but probably won't. If all 13 go in this race I see him getting hung out wide on the turn considering a fast early pace will make that turn come faster than someone from the far outside probably wants it to.
Now for the primary contenders. The interesting horse in this race is #3 Mambo Meister ridden by local perennial jockey leader Manoel Cruz and trained by Phillip Gleaves. Mambo Meister has 9 wins in 29 starts and I think nearly all of them have come on this track (you can check that if you want too). In any event, I do know that Mambo Meister is 6 for 9 at CRC and no rider knows this track better than Manny Cruz. Especially if it rains. What is interesting is that Mambo Meister has mostly been a router up to now. However the workout line shows 4 works since his last outing a 4 furlong and three 3 furlong works including a blistering 34 sec sprint on June 28. I don't usually pay much attention to workouts, but this caught my eye enough to make Mambo Meister the #4 contender at 6-1 odds, play him at 9-1 or better.
The #3 contender is #7 Taqarub trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and ridden by Edgar Prado. Winner of his last out on Preakness day at 13-1 and being recently flattered by Roaring Lion at Monmouth this 4 year old colt is 4 for 5 at the distance and 1 for 1 on off tracks which is something to pay attention to at CRC in the Summer time. Taqarub is 5-1 on my line play him at 8-1 or better
The co-#1 contender is #8 Congressional Page (Trombetta/Albarado). Congressional Page has never lost at this distance and is 2 for 2 on off tracks. Congressional Page is a pressing type with the tactical speed to stay close enough to catch the front runners. I think the race sets up for him from a pace stand point. Congressional Page burned up the track in his last out at Monmouth covering 6f in 1:09.4. I make CP co favorite at 3-1, play at 9/2 or better with #10 Big Drama.
#10 Big Drama (Fawkes/Coa) romped easily past ol' Rusty Charlie in a leisurely 1:10.6 in the Ponche Hdcp. I watched that race and note that he could've gone faster, he just didn't have to.
Big Drama is a G2 winner who just loves CRC and a definite horse for the course with 5 wins in 6 tries. As a 2 year old Big Drama dominated the Florida Stallion Stakes Series. Big Drama is 3 for 3 at this distance and along with being the horse for the course becomes my co-favorite at 3-1, play at 9/2 or better.
To some these odds may seem a little high and you don't want to sit out this race. Really though, there are 6 solid choices in this race that should take serious money. I feel pretty certain there will be an overlay to be found among these four, maybe even two. Hold out for a price because I think this race will be too tight to be eatin' any low-priced chalk.
Later
The Smile Sprint looks to be an exciting race on paper. 13 are entered. Personally I'd like to see at least 5 of the entries scratched as I don't think they really belong in this race. Rusty Charlie was passed as if he was standing still when he faced of against Big Drama in what was certainly a tune up race for the latter 2 back. Trainer Francisco Machado then foolishly brought ol' Rusty back on 7 days rest for another overnight try in which Charlie failed miserably. give ol' Rusty a break because he doesn't belong with these.
Sincero, Gato Go Win, How's Your Halo, Causeway's Kin, Not For Silver, and Golden Spikes are the other non-contenders of which, with varying degrees of vehemence, I would like to see exit the race gracefully pre-post.
This still leaves us with a nice contentious race consisting of #2 Go Go Shoot trained by Pletcher with David Cohen on board. I don't recall ever seeing Cohen ride for Pletcher, but, according to Brisnet's Ultimate PP's he's done 15 times in the last 60 days and done it quite well with a 45% win rate. Go Go Shoot has some flashy speed and should set the pace or certainly be a major pace factor on a speed favoring track. But there is a lot of other speed in this race and horses like Rusty Charlie, Causeway's Kin or Taqarub may force him to go faster than he'd like early on. Go Go Shoot has run twice before on the Calder Course and has yet to show any particular liking for the surface. I think Saturday will be more or the same in that regard for Go Go Shoot.
#13 Snapshot is the other horse in this race I think could win but probably won't. If all 13 go in this race I see him getting hung out wide on the turn considering a fast early pace will make that turn come faster than someone from the far outside probably wants it to.
Now for the primary contenders. The interesting horse in this race is #3 Mambo Meister ridden by local perennial jockey leader Manoel Cruz and trained by Phillip Gleaves. Mambo Meister has 9 wins in 29 starts and I think nearly all of them have come on this track (you can check that if you want too). In any event, I do know that Mambo Meister is 6 for 9 at CRC and no rider knows this track better than Manny Cruz. Especially if it rains. What is interesting is that Mambo Meister has mostly been a router up to now. However the workout line shows 4 works since his last outing a 4 furlong and three 3 furlong works including a blistering 34 sec sprint on June 28. I don't usually pay much attention to workouts, but this caught my eye enough to make Mambo Meister the #4 contender at 6-1 odds, play him at 9-1 or better.
The #3 contender is #7 Taqarub trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and ridden by Edgar Prado. Winner of his last out on Preakness day at 13-1 and being recently flattered by Roaring Lion at Monmouth this 4 year old colt is 4 for 5 at the distance and 1 for 1 on off tracks which is something to pay attention to at CRC in the Summer time. Taqarub is 5-1 on my line play him at 8-1 or better
The co-#1 contender is #8 Congressional Page (Trombetta/Albarado). Congressional Page has never lost at this distance and is 2 for 2 on off tracks. Congressional Page is a pressing type with the tactical speed to stay close enough to catch the front runners. I think the race sets up for him from a pace stand point. Congressional Page burned up the track in his last out at Monmouth covering 6f in 1:09.4. I make CP co favorite at 3-1, play at 9/2 or better with #10 Big Drama.
#10 Big Drama (Fawkes/Coa) romped easily past ol' Rusty Charlie in a leisurely 1:10.6 in the Ponche Hdcp. I watched that race and note that he could've gone faster, he just didn't have to.
Big Drama is a G2 winner who just loves CRC and a definite horse for the course with 5 wins in 6 tries. As a 2 year old Big Drama dominated the Florida Stallion Stakes Series. Big Drama is 3 for 3 at this distance and along with being the horse for the course becomes my co-favorite at 3-1, play at 9/2 or better.
To some these odds may seem a little high and you don't want to sit out this race. Really though, there are 6 solid choices in this race that should take serious money. I feel pretty certain there will be an overlay to be found among these four, maybe even two. Hold out for a price because I think this race will be too tight to be eatin' any low-priced chalk.
Later
Saturday, May 8, 2010
All's Quiet
It's that quiet time between the Derby and the Preakness. Many of the trainers and owners playing it cagey in trying to decide whether to run in the Preakness or skip the middle and load up for the Belmont.
As for me, I stand by my position that Jackson Bend should have skipped the Derby and aimed directly for the Preakness. Conveyance and Noble's Promise are not in the Preakness. Ice Box is out and they are still on the fence regarding Lookin at Lucky and Jackson Bend. I think I saw Pleasant Prince will be in.
You probably know by now Eskendereya is retired to stud. Sad news for racing fans but good news that the injury is not catastrophic. Esky now gets to live the life of a king. Good for him.
A few selections for today.
In the Winter Melody Stakes at Delaware, I like the horse for the course and distance. Delaware Park has been a #5 Magicalcarpetride for the daughter of Smart Strike. Trainer Anthony Dutrow is 43% going turf to dirt. Strong move for Tony and you should get a reasonable price here. #3 Miss Match has been racing against better and appears to be the class in the race. Third choice #8 Mindy Sue has never finished out of the money in 8 trips to the post.
In the Unbridled Sidney at Chuchill Downs #2 Knockout Bertie has been knocking on the door for red-hot trainer Stephen Margolis. I think Sean Bridgmohan will get her to the wire first today. It's hard to pick against 2nd choice #5 Selva, but jockey Robby Albarado has been ice cold at Churchill so far and his record on Turf is less than stellar even in good cirmcumstances. Still, Selva comes out of the key race Bienville60k with a 2nd place finish, so maybe fortunes will turn for Robby today. #8 Candy Cane races for the first time under the tutelage of Rick Dutrow, which is always a live chance in my book.
Belmont Park brings us the G2 Dwyer Stakes for 3 year olds. #2 Drosselmeyer seems to be the one to beat, but you'll have to be willing to accept a fairly low price to back this one. Anything over 7/5 seems fair here. #5 Remand ran a good 3rd in the Bayshore at the Big A and could come home first if Drosselmeyer happens to be looking forward to the Belmont Stakes. #7 Fly Down gets a tepid nod as 3rd choice; however I find the #1 Carnivore interesting as the lone speed long shot try. Carnivore has never run fast enough to beat most in this race, but if he gets brave on the lead who knows what could happen. Play only at a huge price.
Finally hooray for Hollywood and the G2 Mervyn Leroy handicap. #1 Dakota PHONEd the last one in on the dirt at Oaklawn. Now he's back on a more familiar surface and has been running great for Jerry Hollendorfer. If all things were equal, I'd still favor #6 Rail Trip in this position who I think could demolish this field while doing the backstroke. But the 244 day layoff has me thinking Rail Trip might need a race before firing his best shot. RT may not need his best shot to win here, but the price will be short and the layoff makes him vulnerable. #3 Slew's Tiznow rounds out the top three.
That's all I got for today. Going down to Miami to move my son out later. Will be hanging out at Calder tomorrow at the Home Stretch Bar next to the Poker Room. Just shout,"Where's that Chalk Eatin' Weasel?!" if you happen to be in the neighborhood. Maybe I'll buy you a drink.
I'm off
As for me, I stand by my position that Jackson Bend should have skipped the Derby and aimed directly for the Preakness. Conveyance and Noble's Promise are not in the Preakness. Ice Box is out and they are still on the fence regarding Lookin at Lucky and Jackson Bend. I think I saw Pleasant Prince will be in.
You probably know by now Eskendereya is retired to stud. Sad news for racing fans but good news that the injury is not catastrophic. Esky now gets to live the life of a king. Good for him.
A few selections for today.
In the Winter Melody Stakes at Delaware, I like the horse for the course and distance. Delaware Park has been a #5 Magicalcarpetride for the daughter of Smart Strike. Trainer Anthony Dutrow is 43% going turf to dirt. Strong move for Tony and you should get a reasonable price here. #3 Miss Match has been racing against better and appears to be the class in the race. Third choice #8 Mindy Sue has never finished out of the money in 8 trips to the post.
In the Unbridled Sidney at Chuchill Downs #2 Knockout Bertie has been knocking on the door for red-hot trainer Stephen Margolis. I think Sean Bridgmohan will get her to the wire first today. It's hard to pick against 2nd choice #5 Selva, but jockey Robby Albarado has been ice cold at Churchill so far and his record on Turf is less than stellar even in good cirmcumstances. Still, Selva comes out of the key race Bienville60k with a 2nd place finish, so maybe fortunes will turn for Robby today. #8 Candy Cane races for the first time under the tutelage of Rick Dutrow, which is always a live chance in my book.
Belmont Park brings us the G2 Dwyer Stakes for 3 year olds. #2 Drosselmeyer seems to be the one to beat, but you'll have to be willing to accept a fairly low price to back this one. Anything over 7/5 seems fair here. #5 Remand ran a good 3rd in the Bayshore at the Big A and could come home first if Drosselmeyer happens to be looking forward to the Belmont Stakes. #7 Fly Down gets a tepid nod as 3rd choice; however I find the #1 Carnivore interesting as the lone speed long shot try. Carnivore has never run fast enough to beat most in this race, but if he gets brave on the lead who knows what could happen. Play only at a huge price.
Finally hooray for Hollywood and the G2 Mervyn Leroy handicap. #1 Dakota PHONEd the last one in on the dirt at Oaklawn. Now he's back on a more familiar surface and has been running great for Jerry Hollendorfer. If all things were equal, I'd still favor #6 Rail Trip in this position who I think could demolish this field while doing the backstroke. But the 244 day layoff has me thinking Rail Trip might need a race before firing his best shot. RT may not need his best shot to win here, but the price will be short and the layoff makes him vulnerable. #3 Slew's Tiznow rounds out the top three.
That's all I got for today. Going down to Miami to move my son out later. Will be hanging out at Calder tomorrow at the Home Stretch Bar next to the Poker Room. Just shout,"Where's that Chalk Eatin' Weasel?!" if you happen to be in the neighborhood. Maybe I'll buy you a drink.
I'm off
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Florida Million 2009
Today's the day Calder Casino and Race Course honors the Florida Thoroughbred Industry with a Saturday card featuring 8 stakes races for Florida bred horses with a total purse of $1,000,000.
Trainer Marty Wolfson must be expecting a big day as he has brought in Julien Leparoux to ride all of his entries including It's a Bird in the feature race.
The weather is perfectly sunny without a cloud in the sky meaning the races meant to be run on turf will be run on turf.
Selections and odds for today's card follow
Race 1: 1 mile 70 yards Md12500 for fillies and mares 3, 4, and 5 years old
#1 Nistelrooy of Joy 6/5--9-5
#10 Sea Hag 7/2--5/1
#7 Cruise Connection 6/1--9/1
Race 2: 5 furlongs (turf) Opt. Clm 16k/N1X for Fillies and Mares 3 year olds and up
#7 Runaway Heart 8/5--5/2
#4 Determined Gal 3/1--9/2
#9 French Dip 9/2--7/1
Race 3: 6 furlongs Clm 6250 for Fillies and Mares 3 year olds and up
#6 Unexpected Blessing 2/1--3/1
#4 Blushing Tiger 3/1--9/2
#5 Joan's Royal Dawn 7/2--5/1
Race 4: 8.5 furlongs (turf) The John Franks Juvenile Fillies Turf 100k for 2 year old registered Florida Breds
#10 D'lucci Girl 2/1--3/1
#2 Winsocki 5/2--4/1
#8 Suzanne 4/1--6/1
Race 5: 7 furlongs, The Jack Prince Juvenile 150k 2 year old registered Florida Breds
#4 Mr. Green 5/2--4/1
#7 Good To Be Seen 3/1--9/2
#6 Gesu 6/1--9/1
#1 Manny Who 6/1--9/1
Race 6: 7 furlongs, The Joe O'Farrell Juvenile 150k for Filly 2 year old registered Florida Breds
#7 Sweetlalabye 3/1--9/2
#2 Rosebud's Ridge 7/2--5/1
#4 Joanie's Catch 9/2--7/1
#1 Winey Taylor 5/1--8/1
Race 7: 8.5 furlongs (turf) The Arthur I. Appleton Juvenile Turf 100k for 2 year old registered Florida Breds
#3 Family Foundation 1/1--3/2
#9 Show the Way J 5/2--4/1
Race 8: 6 furlongs The Jack Dudley Sprint Handicap 150k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds
#8 Pashito the Che 1/1--3/1
#6 Little Nick 5/2--4/1
Race 9: 8.5 furlongs The Elmer Heubeck Distaff Handicap 200k for Fillies and Mares 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds
#6 Jessica Is Back 6/5--9/5
#9 Sweet Repent 4/1--6/1
#5 Even Road 5/1--8/1
Race 10: 9 furlongs (turf) The Bonnie Heath Turf Cup Handicap 150k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds
#8 Soldier's Dancer 6/5--9/5
#3 Pickapocket 4/1--6/1
#5 Fearless Eagle 5/1--8/1
Race 11: 9 furlongs The Carl G. Rose Classic Handicap 200k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds
#3 It's a Bird 6/5--9/5
#5 Dream Maestro 7/2--5/1
#7 Temo's Dream 6/1--9/1
Check out http://www.casetherace.com/ for full analysis of this race.
Race 12: 7 furlongs clm5000 for 3 year olds and up
#9 Tebow Go 8/5---5/2
#6 Diesel Power 3/1--9/2
#5 Sir Oso 9/2--7-1
The late pick 4 (races 7-10) looks very hittable which means no big payoff, but only a small investment required. I'm going to take a shot at hitting it cold with all my top picks. If you want spread out just a little then single the top choices in races 7 and 8 and the three contenders for 9 and 10 for only a $9 investment.
I'm Off
Trainer Marty Wolfson must be expecting a big day as he has brought in Julien Leparoux to ride all of his entries including It's a Bird in the feature race.
The weather is perfectly sunny without a cloud in the sky meaning the races meant to be run on turf will be run on turf.
Selections and odds for today's card follow
Race 1: 1 mile 70 yards Md12500 for fillies and mares 3, 4, and 5 years old
#1 Nistelrooy of Joy 6/5--9-5
#10 Sea Hag 7/2--5/1
#7 Cruise Connection 6/1--9/1
Race 2: 5 furlongs (turf) Opt. Clm 16k/N1X for Fillies and Mares 3 year olds and up
#7 Runaway Heart 8/5--5/2
#4 Determined Gal 3/1--9/2
#9 French Dip 9/2--7/1
Race 3: 6 furlongs Clm 6250 for Fillies and Mares 3 year olds and up
#6 Unexpected Blessing 2/1--3/1
#4 Blushing Tiger 3/1--9/2
#5 Joan's Royal Dawn 7/2--5/1
Race 4: 8.5 furlongs (turf) The John Franks Juvenile Fillies Turf 100k for 2 year old registered Florida Breds
#10 D'lucci Girl 2/1--3/1
#2 Winsocki 5/2--4/1
#8 Suzanne 4/1--6/1
Race 5: 7 furlongs, The Jack Prince Juvenile 150k 2 year old registered Florida Breds
#4 Mr. Green 5/2--4/1
#7 Good To Be Seen 3/1--9/2
#6 Gesu 6/1--9/1
#1 Manny Who 6/1--9/1
Race 6: 7 furlongs, The Joe O'Farrell Juvenile 150k for Filly 2 year old registered Florida Breds
#7 Sweetlalabye 3/1--9/2
#2 Rosebud's Ridge 7/2--5/1
#4 Joanie's Catch 9/2--7/1
#1 Winey Taylor 5/1--8/1
Race 7: 8.5 furlongs (turf) The Arthur I. Appleton Juvenile Turf 100k for 2 year old registered Florida Breds
#3 Family Foundation 1/1--3/2
#9 Show the Way J 5/2--4/1
Race 8: 6 furlongs The Jack Dudley Sprint Handicap 150k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds
#8 Pashito the Che 1/1--3/1
#6 Little Nick 5/2--4/1
Race 9: 8.5 furlongs The Elmer Heubeck Distaff Handicap 200k for Fillies and Mares 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds
#6 Jessica Is Back 6/5--9/5
#9 Sweet Repent 4/1--6/1
#5 Even Road 5/1--8/1
Race 10: 9 furlongs (turf) The Bonnie Heath Turf Cup Handicap 150k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds
#8 Soldier's Dancer 6/5--9/5
#3 Pickapocket 4/1--6/1
#5 Fearless Eagle 5/1--8/1
Race 11: 9 furlongs The Carl G. Rose Classic Handicap 200k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds
#3 It's a Bird 6/5--9/5
#5 Dream Maestro 7/2--5/1
#7 Temo's Dream 6/1--9/1
Check out http://www.casetherace.com/ for full analysis of this race.
Race 12: 7 furlongs clm5000 for 3 year olds and up
#9 Tebow Go 8/5---5/2
#6 Diesel Power 3/1--9/2
#5 Sir Oso 9/2--7-1
The late pick 4 (races 7-10) looks very hittable which means no big payoff, but only a small investment required. I'm going to take a shot at hitting it cold with all my top picks. If you want spread out just a little then single the top choices in races 7 and 8 and the three contenders for 9 and 10 for only a $9 investment.
I'm Off
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Making the Case
Here it is 7:30 in the morning and I'm looking out the window to the south watching the morning clouds roll in off the ocean and hoping they aren't bring any rain for the turf course at Calder today.
Today I get to bring you 4 more races from the Public Handicappers contest so sit back, relax, and the Weasel take you through some nice competitive racing.
The first race comes from Laurel Park in Maryland. Its the 9th race on the card, The Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash a Grade 1 affair contested at 6 furlongs for 3 year olds and upward.
Vineyard Haven, the DQ'd runner up to Capt Candyman Can in the King's Bishop at Saratoga is the headliner for this race, but he will not be alone in this competitive field of 9.
The race shapes up with a lot of front running types to be vying for the early lead. If this becomes the story of this race then the set up will be perfect for the horse that can stalk from off the pace and we have such a horse in this field in #3 Ravalo.
Stalk and pounce is the modus operandi for Ravalo, and he is capable of running the triple digit figure that will be required to win this race making him the top choice over the likely favorite Vineyard Haven.
Of course, it may be the Vineyard Haven is just too good for the field. The 3 year old is working well and showing no ill effects from its shoving match with Capt Candyman Can back in August. Alan Garcia will get the call. The Godolphin Racing entry will be tough to beat.
The #6 horse, Peace Chant, is another that may benefit if the early pace is too hectic. Peace Chant is a lightly raced 6 year old with only 15 starts indicating that ol' PC has been spending a lot of time on the disabled list. In his last, the Forego-G1, Peace Chant was making a strong late bid when he got cut off and lost the big mo. The DRF comment box notes that although Peace Chant primarily raced on the West Coast, all four of his wins have come on dirt. Looks like he has a puncher's chance in this one to me.
Finally #4 Fleet Valid is one that can sit close to the early leaders and take over when the time is right. Fleet Valid has won 4 in a row at Monmouth including 2 non graded stakes events. He is another contender that is capable of posting triple digit Beyer's in this race.
So while Vineyard Haven may be the one to beat in this race, don't look for the rest of the field to roll over for him. Below are the selections in order of preference.
#3 Ravalo
#1 Vineyard Haven
#6 Peace Chant
#4 Fleet Valid
For the 9th race at Keeneland, The Lexus Raven Run G2. I just have to throw my hands up and say pick 'em. There are 16 entered, 14 will run, and it is possible to make a case for just about all of them. I'm going to have to stick with the obvious in this one.
Both the #8 Flashing and #4 Pretty Prolific are coming out of key races, so I am making them tepid 1,2 favorites here. The horse I will probably play and key exotics around will be my 3rd choice #5 Jardin.
Jardin is coming 3rd back off a layoff and trainer Thomas Albertrani is 35% with a +ROI in the last 2 years with this angle. Since I think Jardin will be something better than 9-5 in this field, I will at least have the satisfaction of having a sound statistical overlay to play. Of course in this large a field, any horse is likely to offer a reasonable price.
Finally the 4th choice will be #11 Sky Haven who is a proven syn runner for Asmussen with some nice Beyer's and Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard.
This looks like a great trifecta opportunity if you can somehow narrow the bet size down to something manageable.
The selections are
8. Flashing
4. Pretty Prolific
5. Jardin
11 Sky Haven
At 8:53 am This just in. Raining at Calder.
The 9th at Belmont is the 32nd running of The Hudson for State breds 3 and up
Finally, a race that isn't a real head scratcher
Although a New York bred, #1 Driven By Success has had some success racing in open graded company and has been dominant against the state breds making him an easy top choice.
The one NY bred that has recently had some luck against DBS is #11 Law Enforcement. Don't worry about his last in the Forego. I expect he will come back with some run in this easier spot.
The 3rd choice, #4 Legal Consent, broke poorly last out. However, he has earned a lot of money racing against his fellow state breds and has an affinity for the track and the distance.
After these 3 its anybody's guess in this race although, I suppose you could consider #9 Be Bullish who benefitted from Legal Consent's problems last out. Still, I figure Driven By Success will be the one to beat here.
1. Driven By Success
11. Law Enforcement
4. Legal Consent
9. Be Bullish
Finally, another contest for state-breds from Belmont Park the 1oth race is the 24th running of The Empire Classic for 3 and up.
This is the race Michael Maker is finally going to win one for the Weasel. There is no doubt in my mind that Future Prospect is the best bet of the 4 races if you wish to cash a ticket. That said if Future Prospect is a paltry 1-2 as he was last out, I will pass the race.
The 2nd choice is the #5 Haynesfield coming off a good off the bench effort last out he should move forward off of that race for Steve Asmussen and rider Ramon Dominguez
The 3rd choice goes to #2 Slevin. Coming 3rd off the layoff he has had 2 strong efforts and just needs a little luck here to make his first stakes score.
Finally the 4th choice will the #4 Weathered. Weathered is appreciated for his game efforts in open company which is always a plus when looking at state bred restricted races such as this one. A 50% winner, Weathered knows how to find the wire first and would not be a big surprise.
The choices
#6 Future Prospect
#5 Haynesfield
#2 Slevin
#4 Weathered.
As always, when looking at these selections, one should take into account the odds on each horse and perhaps play or key on the one that seems to offer the most value to you. If one of these picks has a particularly long price, take a good look at the horse. It is possible that I am just off-base with the selection. It is also possible that I have seen something others have missed. That is the decision you must take responsibility for.
Hey!!! Check out my selection for the 12th race for Calder Race Course today. Hopefully it will stay on the grass, but since most of the runners are more experienced on the main track, it may not make all that much difference. To check out my selection visit http://www.casetherace.com/ The analysis is really there today, I checked it out myself.
As always Good Luck with your selections in todays racing and enjoy the races.
Today I get to bring you 4 more races from the Public Handicappers contest so sit back, relax, and the Weasel take you through some nice competitive racing.
The first race comes from Laurel Park in Maryland. Its the 9th race on the card, The Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash a Grade 1 affair contested at 6 furlongs for 3 year olds and upward.
Vineyard Haven, the DQ'd runner up to Capt Candyman Can in the King's Bishop at Saratoga is the headliner for this race, but he will not be alone in this competitive field of 9.
The race shapes up with a lot of front running types to be vying for the early lead. If this becomes the story of this race then the set up will be perfect for the horse that can stalk from off the pace and we have such a horse in this field in #3 Ravalo.
Stalk and pounce is the modus operandi for Ravalo, and he is capable of running the triple digit figure that will be required to win this race making him the top choice over the likely favorite Vineyard Haven.
Of course, it may be the Vineyard Haven is just too good for the field. The 3 year old is working well and showing no ill effects from its shoving match with Capt Candyman Can back in August. Alan Garcia will get the call. The Godolphin Racing entry will be tough to beat.
The #6 horse, Peace Chant, is another that may benefit if the early pace is too hectic. Peace Chant is a lightly raced 6 year old with only 15 starts indicating that ol' PC has been spending a lot of time on the disabled list. In his last, the Forego-G1, Peace Chant was making a strong late bid when he got cut off and lost the big mo. The DRF comment box notes that although Peace Chant primarily raced on the West Coast, all four of his wins have come on dirt. Looks like he has a puncher's chance in this one to me.
Finally #4 Fleet Valid is one that can sit close to the early leaders and take over when the time is right. Fleet Valid has won 4 in a row at Monmouth including 2 non graded stakes events. He is another contender that is capable of posting triple digit Beyer's in this race.
So while Vineyard Haven may be the one to beat in this race, don't look for the rest of the field to roll over for him. Below are the selections in order of preference.
#3 Ravalo
#1 Vineyard Haven
#6 Peace Chant
#4 Fleet Valid
For the 9th race at Keeneland, The Lexus Raven Run G2. I just have to throw my hands up and say pick 'em. There are 16 entered, 14 will run, and it is possible to make a case for just about all of them. I'm going to have to stick with the obvious in this one.
Both the #8 Flashing and #4 Pretty Prolific are coming out of key races, so I am making them tepid 1,2 favorites here. The horse I will probably play and key exotics around will be my 3rd choice #5 Jardin.
Jardin is coming 3rd back off a layoff and trainer Thomas Albertrani is 35% with a +ROI in the last 2 years with this angle. Since I think Jardin will be something better than 9-5 in this field, I will at least have the satisfaction of having a sound statistical overlay to play. Of course in this large a field, any horse is likely to offer a reasonable price.
Finally the 4th choice will be #11 Sky Haven who is a proven syn runner for Asmussen with some nice Beyer's and Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard.
This looks like a great trifecta opportunity if you can somehow narrow the bet size down to something manageable.
The selections are
8. Flashing
4. Pretty Prolific
5. Jardin
11 Sky Haven
At 8:53 am This just in. Raining at Calder.
The 9th at Belmont is the 32nd running of The Hudson for State breds 3 and up
Finally, a race that isn't a real head scratcher
Although a New York bred, #1 Driven By Success has had some success racing in open graded company and has been dominant against the state breds making him an easy top choice.
The one NY bred that has recently had some luck against DBS is #11 Law Enforcement. Don't worry about his last in the Forego. I expect he will come back with some run in this easier spot.
The 3rd choice, #4 Legal Consent, broke poorly last out. However, he has earned a lot of money racing against his fellow state breds and has an affinity for the track and the distance.
After these 3 its anybody's guess in this race although, I suppose you could consider #9 Be Bullish who benefitted from Legal Consent's problems last out. Still, I figure Driven By Success will be the one to beat here.
1. Driven By Success
11. Law Enforcement
4. Legal Consent
9. Be Bullish
Finally, another contest for state-breds from Belmont Park the 1oth race is the 24th running of The Empire Classic for 3 and up.
This is the race Michael Maker is finally going to win one for the Weasel. There is no doubt in my mind that Future Prospect is the best bet of the 4 races if you wish to cash a ticket. That said if Future Prospect is a paltry 1-2 as he was last out, I will pass the race.
The 2nd choice is the #5 Haynesfield coming off a good off the bench effort last out he should move forward off of that race for Steve Asmussen and rider Ramon Dominguez
The 3rd choice goes to #2 Slevin. Coming 3rd off the layoff he has had 2 strong efforts and just needs a little luck here to make his first stakes score.
Finally the 4th choice will the #4 Weathered. Weathered is appreciated for his game efforts in open company which is always a plus when looking at state bred restricted races such as this one. A 50% winner, Weathered knows how to find the wire first and would not be a big surprise.
The choices
#6 Future Prospect
#5 Haynesfield
#2 Slevin
#4 Weathered.
As always, when looking at these selections, one should take into account the odds on each horse and perhaps play or key on the one that seems to offer the most value to you. If one of these picks has a particularly long price, take a good look at the horse. It is possible that I am just off-base with the selection. It is also possible that I have seen something others have missed. That is the decision you must take responsibility for.
Hey!!! Check out my selection for the 12th race for Calder Race Course today. Hopefully it will stay on the grass, but since most of the runners are more experienced on the main track, it may not make all that much difference. To check out my selection visit http://www.casetherace.com/ The analysis is really there today, I checked it out myself.
As always Good Luck with your selections in todays racing and enjoy the races.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Rainy Day For Travers
Wet weather will be the order of the day for Saratoga Springs. After last weeks poor showing by yours truly, that's all I need is for the rain to wreak havoc on my selections this week.
If the rain falls as forecast, it's a pretty safe bet the Ballston Spa will come off the turf. I can't forecast who will stay in the race if it is moved to the main track.
On the grass, I was alredy going to go somewhat against the conventional wisdom using #7 Cocoa Beach under the guidance of Ramon Dominquez for bin Suroor Saeed and Godophin Stable. Cocoa Beach has shown ability on both grass and dirt. In fact, if this race is moved off the grass to the main track, Cocoa Beach, being 2 for 3 on off tracks in a field that shows no other significant main track form becomes your Pick 4 single.
The 2nd choice for the Ballston Spa on grass is the 1 horse Rutherienne ridden by Alan Garcia and trained by Christophe Clement. Rutherienne had a lot of traffic problems in her last race the G1 Diana Stakes. In 20 races, Rutherienne has finished in the money 18 times including 14 of her last fifteen all graded stakes. With that stat in mind, one has to think she'll be sniffing around the money once more. If the race goes to the main course, I dunno.
No 2 My Princess Jess, Cornelio Velasquez - Barclay Tagg, gets the nod as 3rd choice. The Princess finished 5th in the Diana should see improvement here coming 2nd off the layoff. She has won Graded at the Spa before, and she has won on soft turf before. If on the grass, the going should be to her liking.
Finally, the #3 Closeout , Albarado-Proctor, should also get some consideration here. Grade 3 winner last out she comes off a bit off a freshening but has been training well on the Turf here. The Albarado-Proctor connection is 40% in the winner's circle over the last 5 years (Thanks DRF Formulator); however, you'll have to balance that with the fact that Thomas Proctor has yet to win in 5 starts at the Spa this season.
The Ballston Spa Hdcp--G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.
On Turf
#7 Cocoa Beach
#1 Rutherienne
#2 My Princess Jess
#3 Closeout
Dirt
#7 Cocoa Beach
?????????????
The 7 furlong Ballerina Stakes shapes up to be a 2 horse race between the #2 Informed Decision and #4 Indian Blessing. The knock on Informed Decision all week has been that her performance on dirt is not quite up to her artificial surface standards. It is true that her dirt Beyer's figures are 6-10 points lower than her artificial figures, yet all she has done is win her last 5 times out including 2 Grade 1 wins a Grade 2 and a Grade 3 win.
Indian Blessing comes off a bit of a layoff having had an infection problem that kept her out of the G2 Princess Rooney here at Calder. Side note, I told you before that race she was not herself and, as it turned out, she didn't even make the trip. However, she's supposed to be all better now. It is reported by DRF that Tonya Terranova, who trains horses for Baffert when they run at Saratoga, says that Indian Blessing is all revved up and ready to go.
This just in. Races 1, 5 and 13 have been taken off the turf. Posted by Steven Crist at DRF.com
I'm going to have to give Indian Blessing the edge here as she if 2 for 2 at Saratoga. If Indian Blessing can run back to her usual self and the tendency of Informed Decision to drop off just a bit on dirt holds up, she is the one to beat.
The Ballerina, Grade 1 7f for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
Top choices
4 Indian Blessing
2 Informed Decision
1 Music Note
The rains have really muddied the Kings Bishop. Here's the way I see it.
Big Drama starts from the outside post-advantage. Big Drama turns back to his best distance after leading 8 furlongs of a 9 furlong West Va. Derby-advantage. Big Drama shows a definite pattern of winning on the turnback after running a route-advantage. Big Drama has never raced on an off-track-disadvantage.
Capt. Candyman Can is 3 for 3 at this distance-advantage. Capt. Candyman Can comes out of chasing the record breaking Quality Road managing to finish 2nd with his own personal best Beyer's figure-advantage. Capt. Candyman Can has won on an off track-advantage.
Munnings outran Rachel Alexandra for 6f in the Haskell-advantage. Munnings has finished ITM 2 times in 2 tries on off track-advantage. Munnings has run nothing but triple digit Beyer's as a 3 yo-advantage.
The above horses are the big 3 for this race. I am going to take a leap of faith and say that Big Drama can handle the off going. I think of these 3 he is likely to give the best price.
Kings Bishop, G1 7f for 3 year olds
8 Big Drama
3 Capt. Candyman Can
2 Munnings
And now for the main event the 1 1/4 mile Travers Stakes.
The only knock on the 4 Quality Road is the question of whether or not he can get the distance with only one prep off the layoff. Now you can add will he handle the off track to that list of doubts. I liked Quality Road going into the Derby. I saw his races at Gulfstream and he is an impressive specimen. I wasn't worried about the distance, and his Tomlinson number suggests he should handle the surface although you never know for sure until they actually do.
The 7 Kensei, stable mate to Rachel Alexander, is the horse Steve Asmussen refers to as Rodney Dangerfield. Asmussen has been steadily stretching him out in successive races and expects the added distance will not be a problem. Kensei is a hot horse right now and the Prado-Asmussen combination has been effective winning at a 36% clip for 28 races over 2008 and 2009 with a positive ROI.
6 Summer Bird is a proven commodity on off going with his strong Derby showing and 2nd place finish in the Haskell. In addition, he has proven that the distance will not be and issue. With plenty of speed on the front end to run at, I expect the son of Birdstone will be flying home at the end.
The Travers G1 for 3 year olds shapes up like this for me
6 Summer Bird
7 Kensei
4 Quality Road
That covers 3 of the 4 Public Handicapper races. I doubt I'll get around to the Del Mar Mile today. Here's hoping I did a better job than last week.
Good luck.
If the rain falls as forecast, it's a pretty safe bet the Ballston Spa will come off the turf. I can't forecast who will stay in the race if it is moved to the main track.
On the grass, I was alredy going to go somewhat against the conventional wisdom using #7 Cocoa Beach under the guidance of Ramon Dominquez for bin Suroor Saeed and Godophin Stable. Cocoa Beach has shown ability on both grass and dirt. In fact, if this race is moved off the grass to the main track, Cocoa Beach, being 2 for 3 on off tracks in a field that shows no other significant main track form becomes your Pick 4 single.
The 2nd choice for the Ballston Spa on grass is the 1 horse Rutherienne ridden by Alan Garcia and trained by Christophe Clement. Rutherienne had a lot of traffic problems in her last race the G1 Diana Stakes. In 20 races, Rutherienne has finished in the money 18 times including 14 of her last fifteen all graded stakes. With that stat in mind, one has to think she'll be sniffing around the money once more. If the race goes to the main course, I dunno.
No 2 My Princess Jess, Cornelio Velasquez - Barclay Tagg, gets the nod as 3rd choice. The Princess finished 5th in the Diana should see improvement here coming 2nd off the layoff. She has won Graded at the Spa before, and she has won on soft turf before. If on the grass, the going should be to her liking.
Finally, the #3 Closeout , Albarado-Proctor, should also get some consideration here. Grade 3 winner last out she comes off a bit off a freshening but has been training well on the Turf here. The Albarado-Proctor connection is 40% in the winner's circle over the last 5 years (Thanks DRF Formulator); however, you'll have to balance that with the fact that Thomas Proctor has yet to win in 5 starts at the Spa this season.
The Ballston Spa Hdcp--G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.
On Turf
#7 Cocoa Beach
#1 Rutherienne
#2 My Princess Jess
#3 Closeout
Dirt
#7 Cocoa Beach
?????????????
The 7 furlong Ballerina Stakes shapes up to be a 2 horse race between the #2 Informed Decision and #4 Indian Blessing. The knock on Informed Decision all week has been that her performance on dirt is not quite up to her artificial surface standards. It is true that her dirt Beyer's figures are 6-10 points lower than her artificial figures, yet all she has done is win her last 5 times out including 2 Grade 1 wins a Grade 2 and a Grade 3 win.
Indian Blessing comes off a bit of a layoff having had an infection problem that kept her out of the G2 Princess Rooney here at Calder. Side note, I told you before that race she was not herself and, as it turned out, she didn't even make the trip. However, she's supposed to be all better now. It is reported by DRF that Tonya Terranova, who trains horses for Baffert when they run at Saratoga, says that Indian Blessing is all revved up and ready to go.
This just in. Races 1, 5 and 13 have been taken off the turf. Posted by Steven Crist at DRF.com
I'm going to have to give Indian Blessing the edge here as she if 2 for 2 at Saratoga. If Indian Blessing can run back to her usual self and the tendency of Informed Decision to drop off just a bit on dirt holds up, she is the one to beat.
The Ballerina, Grade 1 7f for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
Top choices
4 Indian Blessing
2 Informed Decision
1 Music Note
The rains have really muddied the Kings Bishop. Here's the way I see it.
Big Drama starts from the outside post-advantage. Big Drama turns back to his best distance after leading 8 furlongs of a 9 furlong West Va. Derby-advantage. Big Drama shows a definite pattern of winning on the turnback after running a route-advantage. Big Drama has never raced on an off-track-disadvantage.
Capt. Candyman Can is 3 for 3 at this distance-advantage. Capt. Candyman Can comes out of chasing the record breaking Quality Road managing to finish 2nd with his own personal best Beyer's figure-advantage. Capt. Candyman Can has won on an off track-advantage.
Munnings outran Rachel Alexandra for 6f in the Haskell-advantage. Munnings has finished ITM 2 times in 2 tries on off track-advantage. Munnings has run nothing but triple digit Beyer's as a 3 yo-advantage.
The above horses are the big 3 for this race. I am going to take a leap of faith and say that Big Drama can handle the off going. I think of these 3 he is likely to give the best price.
Kings Bishop, G1 7f for 3 year olds
8 Big Drama
3 Capt. Candyman Can
2 Munnings
And now for the main event the 1 1/4 mile Travers Stakes.
The only knock on the 4 Quality Road is the question of whether or not he can get the distance with only one prep off the layoff. Now you can add will he handle the off track to that list of doubts. I liked Quality Road going into the Derby. I saw his races at Gulfstream and he is an impressive specimen. I wasn't worried about the distance, and his Tomlinson number suggests he should handle the surface although you never know for sure until they actually do.
The 7 Kensei, stable mate to Rachel Alexander, is the horse Steve Asmussen refers to as Rodney Dangerfield. Asmussen has been steadily stretching him out in successive races and expects the added distance will not be a problem. Kensei is a hot horse right now and the Prado-Asmussen combination has been effective winning at a 36% clip for 28 races over 2008 and 2009 with a positive ROI.
6 Summer Bird is a proven commodity on off going with his strong Derby showing and 2nd place finish in the Haskell. In addition, he has proven that the distance will not be and issue. With plenty of speed on the front end to run at, I expect the son of Birdstone will be flying home at the end.
The Travers G1 for 3 year olds shapes up like this for me
6 Summer Bird
7 Kensei
4 Quality Road
That covers 3 of the 4 Public Handicapper races. I doubt I'll get around to the Del Mar Mile today. Here's hoping I did a better job than last week.
Good luck.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Summit Of Speed and PH Picks for July 11
Another Saturday, another day of big stakes and small wagers. Last week was a good one, let's go for two in a row. Starting with the Public Handicapper races for today.
1 3/8 Mile (Inner Turf) Man O War G1 Race 7 at Belmont Park
Gio Ponti
5-2
4-1
Midships
4-1
6-1
Quijano
9-2
7-1
Dancing Forever
5-1
8-1
Shapes up to be a competitive race in which any of 6 horses has a legit shot. Someone will need a good trip. Homefield advantage goes to Gio Ponti with Ramon Dominquez aboard. GP comes off a G1 win in the Manhattan and is 3 for 4 over the course. He is stretching out an extra furlong for the first time, but I don't think that will be a problem. The hot horse is Midships coming off 3 straight grade wins. Figure pattern suggests Midships may not have enough to win this race. German bred Quijano is 6 for 6 at the distance and a Group 1 winner at Milan. The gelding just missed at the Northern Dancer G1 last year at Woodbine and comes back to the states for another go. Quijano will be my PH pick. Dancing Forever comes back 2nd off layoff from a good Breeder's Cup Turf effort. Last race was clearly a tune up for bigger things, and this may be it. You can also throw Grand Courturier and Marsh Side into the mix as well, but you have to narrow it down somehow, and sometimes hard decisions have to be made.
1 Mile Turf Battlefield Stakes 70k Monmouth PP 4:20
#8 Get Serious
5-2
4-1
#9 Jet Propulsion
4-1
6-1
#6 Independent George
9-2
7-1
#3 Steve's Double
5-1
8-1
Get Serious is our horse for the course with 4 wins in 6 tries including a similar type race 2 back. Get Serious along with Jet Propulsion will both be aiming to set the early fractions and Get Serious has the advantage of being inside JP. Truth is, this race is set up nicely for a closer such as Independent George who will be my PH selection. For Seinfeld fans Independent George is also the hunch play of the day. Steve's Double is coming off a long layoff, but has won richer races than this one and trainer Ronny Werner is 27% with a +ROI with layoffs of greater than 90 days. Elvis Trujillo in the irons doesn't hurt the chances either.
1 1/4 Mile (Turf) Arlington Handicap G3 6:40
#12 Cosmonaut
5-2
4-1
# 13 Thabazimbi
4-1
6-1
#9 Just As Well
9-2
7-1
#11 Stream Cat
5-1
8-1
One of the good things about the Arlington turf course at this distance is there does not appear to be any significant post position bias. This is a good thing as all my contenders for this race will be starting from the outer posts. Cosmonaut finds an easier spot to run than last out when he faced the likes of Gio Ponti and Marsh Side in the Manhattan. Cosmonaut is 2 for 4 on the course and 2 for 6 at the distance and has Robbie Albarado to guide him. #13 Thazimbi has been freshened after giving a good effort last out in the Louisville G3. Should like the distance and Leparoux is one of the best. Just As Well has yet to win this year, but showed some promise of improvement in his last two outings. Stream Cat won this race last year off a layoff and hopes to do the same again this year.
1 1/4 Mile Hollywood Gold Cup G1 7:30
Hol G1 AW
7:30
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#10 Life Is Sweet
5-2
4-1
#4 Bullsbay
4-1
6-1
#5 Parading
9-2
7-1
#12 Informed
5-1
8-1
A very competitive race, but strengthwise I think it is lacking in strength for a G1 affair. I think this is why Shirreffs has chosen this spot to enter his 2nd best filly Life Is Sweet who was 2nd best to Zenyatta last out. Bullsbay will be a force to be reckoned with if he can run back to his recent performances. I could rank Parading higher, but not knowing how he will handle the cushion track caused me to downgrade him just a little. However, Kent Desormeaux knows how to ride and if he has any affinity for the course he'll be there in the mix at the end. Informed will be hampered by starting from the 12th post, but the G2 Californian winner is 3 for 7 on the track and should have a shot. Mast Track and Tres Borrachos are two other to keep in mind for Trifecta purposes.
And now for some Summit of Speed Racing
5f (Turf) Bob Umphrey Turf Spring Championship Handicap
#5 Mr. Nightlinger
5-2
4-1
#8 Possetothemax
9-2
7-1
#3 Midnight Ridge
4-1
6-1
#7 Ron Bob And Dave
5-1
8-1
If this race stays on the Turf, which as of this writing it appears that it will, than forget the odds line as it pertains to Mr. Nightlinger, he is clearly the best in the field. That being said, Possetothemax is 3 for 4 on CRC Turf including an overnight win last out and should be hanging around for at least a minor award. Midnight Ridge gets rider Paco Lopez aboard. He will be contending for the early lead, and Paco will have him hugging the rail all the way if he can. However the turns on the turf course are tight which is probably why runners in these 5f sprints at CRC generally do better starting from the outside. Finally I'll thrown Ron Bob And Dave shipping in from Hollywood to make his stakes debut. He's run some nice figures and could take advantage of an early speed duel. But really, all these other guys are racing for 2nd IMOH
I'm going to skip the 5f J J's Dream for 2yo fillies. It appears to be a major crap shoot in my opinion.
6 f Azalea Stakes G3 for 3yo fillies
#7 Kays and Jays
5-2
4-1
#3 Royal Card
9-2
7-1
#2 Underground
4-1
6-1
#9 First Passage
5-1
8-1
Kays and Jays turnsback after being overmatched in Hollywood and comes back to her preferred distance of 6f. Jose Lezcano gets the call. Royal Card is one of 3 Marty Wolfson entries in this race and has really awakened under Marty's tutelage after he took over from Todd Pletcher 2 races ago. Underground maybe taking a huge step up in only her 2nd race, but the Baffert trainee ran big first out, so why not. Mike Smith is the rider. First Passage is another Wolfson runner. She is a winner of an overnight 100k stakes last out, but the outside post could hinder her here.
6f Carry Back Stakes G2 for 3yo 3:56
#1 You Lucky Mann
5-2
4-1
#5 Not For Silver
9-2
7-1
#2 Ask Joe
4-1
6-1
#4 Prince Joshua
5-1
8-1
You really have to watch the last race between You Lucky Mann and Prince Joshua to believe it. You Lucky Mann caught Prince Joshua on the turn into the stretch. Jockey Jermaine Bridgmohan appeared, to my eyes, to relax on YLM thinking it was over, but it was not as Prince Joshua fought back and JB had to get really busy to pull the race out. Still YLM is the better horse. Not For Silver comes out of a really nice race on Preakness day and may get the gold today. Ask Joe, the Fair Grounds Sugar Bowl winner, ridden by Paco Lopez is one that could benefit from a hot pace scenario. Prince Joshua showed a lot of courage last out and could prevail if he can avoid a bounce out of that race.
6f Princess Rooney Hdcp G1 for fillies and mares 3 up 4:26
#8 Dubai Majesty
5-2
4-1
#6 Game Face
9-2
7-1
#7 Keep The Peace
4-1
6-1
#1 Jessica Is Back
5-1
8-1
Well, I've been known to go off half-cocked before and I am doing so again. I don't think Indian Blessing will be at her best today. I was informed that Baffert excused the last effort due to a leg infection; however the infection didn't seem to effect her the first 5 furlongs of that race. In addition, I still don't like the last workout which was nearly 2 seconds off the previous. It was still good for most, but not a Baffert type work. So, I'm looking to Dubai Majesty who showed some guts in the Winning Colors last out. Jamie (don't blame me) Theriot has won on her before, and if I'm right about IB, he should win on her again. Todd Pletcher's Game Face is a consistent graded stakes runner and figures to do well here. Keep The Peace ran 3rd in DM's last race and would've finished, at least, 2nd had she not been impeded by Lady Chace in the stretch, so you got to give her a chance here. Finally, Wolfson runner Jessica Is Back has some speed, has the rail and Paco Lopez. She, Could, Go, All, The, Way!
6f Smile Sprint Handicap-G2 4:55
#4 Benny The Bull
5-2
4-1
#5 Eaton's Gift
9-2
7-1
#6 Yesbyjimminy
4-1
6-1
#2 How's Your Halo
5-1
8-1
Once again, forget the odds line for Benny. This one is Benny The Bull and the usual suspects. Eaton's Gift comes Turf to Dirt and 2nd off layoff for Dale Romans and Jose Lezcano. Then Yesbyjimminy and How's Your Halo round out the usual suspects. Ikigai, or maybe Icky Guy, does not appear to be the same horse that won the Mr. Prospector back in January at GulfStream.
Well that about covers it for today. You've certainly gotten more than your money's worth and I hope you find something in all of this that can be used to your benefit.
1 3/8 Mile (Inner Turf) Man O War G1 Race 7 at Belmont Park
Gio Ponti
5-2
4-1
Midships
4-1
6-1
Quijano
9-2
7-1
Dancing Forever
5-1
8-1
Shapes up to be a competitive race in which any of 6 horses has a legit shot. Someone will need a good trip. Homefield advantage goes to Gio Ponti with Ramon Dominquez aboard. GP comes off a G1 win in the Manhattan and is 3 for 4 over the course. He is stretching out an extra furlong for the first time, but I don't think that will be a problem. The hot horse is Midships coming off 3 straight grade wins. Figure pattern suggests Midships may not have enough to win this race. German bred Quijano is 6 for 6 at the distance and a Group 1 winner at Milan. The gelding just missed at the Northern Dancer G1 last year at Woodbine and comes back to the states for another go. Quijano will be my PH pick. Dancing Forever comes back 2nd off layoff from a good Breeder's Cup Turf effort. Last race was clearly a tune up for bigger things, and this may be it. You can also throw Grand Courturier and Marsh Side into the mix as well, but you have to narrow it down somehow, and sometimes hard decisions have to be made.
1 Mile Turf Battlefield Stakes 70k Monmouth PP 4:20
#8 Get Serious
5-2
4-1
#9 Jet Propulsion
4-1
6-1
#6 Independent George
9-2
7-1
#3 Steve's Double
5-1
8-1
Get Serious is our horse for the course with 4 wins in 6 tries including a similar type race 2 back. Get Serious along with Jet Propulsion will both be aiming to set the early fractions and Get Serious has the advantage of being inside JP. Truth is, this race is set up nicely for a closer such as Independent George who will be my PH selection. For Seinfeld fans Independent George is also the hunch play of the day. Steve's Double is coming off a long layoff, but has won richer races than this one and trainer Ronny Werner is 27% with a +ROI with layoffs of greater than 90 days. Elvis Trujillo in the irons doesn't hurt the chances either.
1 1/4 Mile (Turf) Arlington Handicap G3 6:40
#12 Cosmonaut
5-2
4-1
# 13 Thabazimbi
4-1
6-1
#9 Just As Well
9-2
7-1
#11 Stream Cat
5-1
8-1
One of the good things about the Arlington turf course at this distance is there does not appear to be any significant post position bias. This is a good thing as all my contenders for this race will be starting from the outer posts. Cosmonaut finds an easier spot to run than last out when he faced the likes of Gio Ponti and Marsh Side in the Manhattan. Cosmonaut is 2 for 4 on the course and 2 for 6 at the distance and has Robbie Albarado to guide him. #13 Thazimbi has been freshened after giving a good effort last out in the Louisville G3. Should like the distance and Leparoux is one of the best. Just As Well has yet to win this year, but showed some promise of improvement in his last two outings. Stream Cat won this race last year off a layoff and hopes to do the same again this year.
1 1/4 Mile Hollywood Gold Cup G1 7:30
Hol G1 AW
7:30
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#10 Life Is Sweet
5-2
4-1
#4 Bullsbay
4-1
6-1
#5 Parading
9-2
7-1
#12 Informed
5-1
8-1
A very competitive race, but strengthwise I think it is lacking in strength for a G1 affair. I think this is why Shirreffs has chosen this spot to enter his 2nd best filly Life Is Sweet who was 2nd best to Zenyatta last out. Bullsbay will be a force to be reckoned with if he can run back to his recent performances. I could rank Parading higher, but not knowing how he will handle the cushion track caused me to downgrade him just a little. However, Kent Desormeaux knows how to ride and if he has any affinity for the course he'll be there in the mix at the end. Informed will be hampered by starting from the 12th post, but the G2 Californian winner is 3 for 7 on the track and should have a shot. Mast Track and Tres Borrachos are two other to keep in mind for Trifecta purposes.
And now for some Summit of Speed Racing
5f (Turf) Bob Umphrey Turf Spring Championship Handicap
#5 Mr. Nightlinger
5-2
4-1
#8 Possetothemax
9-2
7-1
#3 Midnight Ridge
4-1
6-1
#7 Ron Bob And Dave
5-1
8-1
If this race stays on the Turf, which as of this writing it appears that it will, than forget the odds line as it pertains to Mr. Nightlinger, he is clearly the best in the field. That being said, Possetothemax is 3 for 4 on CRC Turf including an overnight win last out and should be hanging around for at least a minor award. Midnight Ridge gets rider Paco Lopez aboard. He will be contending for the early lead, and Paco will have him hugging the rail all the way if he can. However the turns on the turf course are tight which is probably why runners in these 5f sprints at CRC generally do better starting from the outside. Finally I'll thrown Ron Bob And Dave shipping in from Hollywood to make his stakes debut. He's run some nice figures and could take advantage of an early speed duel. But really, all these other guys are racing for 2nd IMOH
I'm going to skip the 5f J J's Dream for 2yo fillies. It appears to be a major crap shoot in my opinion.
6 f Azalea Stakes G3 for 3yo fillies
#7 Kays and Jays
5-2
4-1
#3 Royal Card
9-2
7-1
#2 Underground
4-1
6-1
#9 First Passage
5-1
8-1
Kays and Jays turnsback after being overmatched in Hollywood and comes back to her preferred distance of 6f. Jose Lezcano gets the call. Royal Card is one of 3 Marty Wolfson entries in this race and has really awakened under Marty's tutelage after he took over from Todd Pletcher 2 races ago. Underground maybe taking a huge step up in only her 2nd race, but the Baffert trainee ran big first out, so why not. Mike Smith is the rider. First Passage is another Wolfson runner. She is a winner of an overnight 100k stakes last out, but the outside post could hinder her here.
6f Carry Back Stakes G2 for 3yo 3:56
#1 You Lucky Mann
5-2
4-1
#5 Not For Silver
9-2
7-1
#2 Ask Joe
4-1
6-1
#4 Prince Joshua
5-1
8-1
You really have to watch the last race between You Lucky Mann and Prince Joshua to believe it. You Lucky Mann caught Prince Joshua on the turn into the stretch. Jockey Jermaine Bridgmohan appeared, to my eyes, to relax on YLM thinking it was over, but it was not as Prince Joshua fought back and JB had to get really busy to pull the race out. Still YLM is the better horse. Not For Silver comes out of a really nice race on Preakness day and may get the gold today. Ask Joe, the Fair Grounds Sugar Bowl winner, ridden by Paco Lopez is one that could benefit from a hot pace scenario. Prince Joshua showed a lot of courage last out and could prevail if he can avoid a bounce out of that race.
6f Princess Rooney Hdcp G1 for fillies and mares 3 up 4:26
#8 Dubai Majesty
5-2
4-1
#6 Game Face
9-2
7-1
#7 Keep The Peace
4-1
6-1
#1 Jessica Is Back
5-1
8-1
Well, I've been known to go off half-cocked before and I am doing so again. I don't think Indian Blessing will be at her best today. I was informed that Baffert excused the last effort due to a leg infection; however the infection didn't seem to effect her the first 5 furlongs of that race. In addition, I still don't like the last workout which was nearly 2 seconds off the previous. It was still good for most, but not a Baffert type work. So, I'm looking to Dubai Majesty who showed some guts in the Winning Colors last out. Jamie (don't blame me) Theriot has won on her before, and if I'm right about IB, he should win on her again. Todd Pletcher's Game Face is a consistent graded stakes runner and figures to do well here. Keep The Peace ran 3rd in DM's last race and would've finished, at least, 2nd had she not been impeded by Lady Chace in the stretch, so you got to give her a chance here. Finally, Wolfson runner Jessica Is Back has some speed, has the rail and Paco Lopez. She, Could, Go, All, The, Way!
6f Smile Sprint Handicap-G2 4:55
#4 Benny The Bull
5-2
4-1
#5 Eaton's Gift
9-2
7-1
#6 Yesbyjimminy
4-1
6-1
#2 How's Your Halo
5-1
8-1
Once again, forget the odds line for Benny. This one is Benny The Bull and the usual suspects. Eaton's Gift comes Turf to Dirt and 2nd off layoff for Dale Romans and Jose Lezcano. Then Yesbyjimminy and How's Your Halo round out the usual suspects. Ikigai, or maybe Icky Guy, does not appear to be the same horse that won the Mr. Prospector back in January at GulfStream.
Well that about covers it for today. You've certainly gotten more than your money's worth and I hope you find something in all of this that can be used to your benefit.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Big City Man No More
I went to the Bloodhorse.com to see if I could find an explanation for Indian Blessing's poor performance last out when the coincidence of coincidences occurred. Big City Man winner of this year's Dubai Golden Shaheen, in which Indian Blessing finished 2nd, died July 5th of a strangulated cecum. Apparently he showed signs of distress following his workout, was treated for colic and eventually taken to the clinic where surgery was performed and the ailment discovered. Read the full story here https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/51550/big-city-man-dies-of-strangulated-cecum.
Meanwhile, watching the last race on Indian Blessing, I have to question her soundness. In case your wondering about my sudden interest in Indian Blessing, it is due to the Summit of Speed and the G1 Princess Rooney Handicap which will be run at CRC on Saturday.
When I saw Indian Blessing was entered my first reaction was, "One race down." However, after further perusal of the form I began to wonder. Knowing that G1 type horses often dog it somewhat when coming back after rest, I found the last result of Indian Blessing's to be a puzzle all the same. Maybe she loses in a Grade 2 or even 3 race, but an overnight stakes? The comment reads,"weakened final furlong"
I watched the race and Indian Blessing appeared to be running along fine and seemed sure to catch the front running Coco Belle when she basically just ran out of gas.
Add to this her workouts. Bob Baffert works his horses fast. This is well known. On June 30 Indian Blessing runs a 4f bullet in 0:46 flat. July 6 over the same surface and distance its 48 and fifth. Baffert can't be happy about that. Indian Blessing has been heavily favored in at least her last 10 races. She may be a huge bet against this Saturday if heavily favored again.
Meanwhile, watching the last race on Indian Blessing, I have to question her soundness. In case your wondering about my sudden interest in Indian Blessing, it is due to the Summit of Speed and the G1 Princess Rooney Handicap which will be run at CRC on Saturday.
When I saw Indian Blessing was entered my first reaction was, "One race down." However, after further perusal of the form I began to wonder. Knowing that G1 type horses often dog it somewhat when coming back after rest, I found the last result of Indian Blessing's to be a puzzle all the same. Maybe she loses in a Grade 2 or even 3 race, but an overnight stakes? The comment reads,"weakened final furlong"
I watched the race and Indian Blessing appeared to be running along fine and seemed sure to catch the front running Coco Belle when she basically just ran out of gas.
Add to this her workouts. Bob Baffert works his horses fast. This is well known. On June 30 Indian Blessing runs a 4f bullet in 0:46 flat. July 6 over the same surface and distance its 48 and fifth. Baffert can't be happy about that. Indian Blessing has been heavily favored in at least her last 10 races. She may be a huge bet against this Saturday if heavily favored again.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Summit of Speed Preview
Back again after taking a licking on Belmont Day. I've tried to update the spreadsheet that shows my progress, but it is not functioning for me at the moment. I'll go back later. Long story short, I wagered on 4 of the 6 races passing the True North and the Acorn Stakes. Summer Bird was the near miss of the day. If only Charitable Man would have dropped one more tick to 4-1 than I would've had the win and exacta! Did manage the superfecta box. Too bad I didn't play it.
Ok, today's another day. Calder Race Course has 5 stakes races scheduled for its Summit of Speed preview. The HANA race of the week is the 200k Monmouth Stakes for 3 and up and was a fun race to handicap. Let's hope its a fun race to cash in on.
The HANA race is also one of the Public Handicapper races as well. 2 of those races are at Churchill, the Stephen Foster with Einstein running and the Regret Stakes. Finally, its the nightcap, for us East Coasters at Hollywood Park with the Grade 2 Californian Stakes for 3 and up.
So without further ado.
Race 3 at CRC: Blazing Sword Stakes, 55k on Turf for 3 and up.
CRC Race 3
1:44
#1 Mambo Meister
3-2
5-2
#10 Vanquisher
7-2
5-1
#4 Motovato
9-2
7-1
#1 Winner last out appears to be the best here #10 Non Graded stakes winnner is 50% ITM on Turf #4 Turf debut for Motovato has B rated Turf sire and is in good form. Include no.'s 6, 8, 9 for trifecta
Race 8 at Calder. The Unbridled Stakes 100k, 6f for 3 year olds. This race is a 4 horse affair not likely to offer value, but maybe a good free space for the pick 4.
CRC Race 8
4:16
#2 You Luckie Mann
1-1
3-2
#4 Prince Joshua
5-1
8-1
#3 Bidham
6-1
9-1
#2 Wolfson HFC and obvious top choice. #4 Prince Joshua turnsback in distance and could possibly be a good separator in the P4 as everyone will likely single the 2. #3 improving 3yo finished just behind 2nd choice last out
Race 9 at CRC is the 100k Leave Me Alone Stakes for 3yo fillies.
CRC Race 9
4:42
#7 Mine All Mine
7-5
2-1
#3 First Passage
7-2
5-1
#1Donttellmewhattodo
9-2
7-1
#7 finished 2nd to the 3 last out. 2nd off layoff should move forward off that race for 50% trainer Wesley Ward. Ward/Lopez was deadly combo last year. #3 stumbled at the start and won anyway would not be a shocker #1 Doug O'Neill shipper gets good post and looks to be getting better each race.
To keep the races in chronological order, we'll move up the coast to Monmouth for the 200k Monmouth Stakes, Turf for 3 and up. Note Richard's Kid is already a scratch.
MTH Race 9
4:50
#5 Strike A Deal
5-2
4-1
#1 Proudinsky
3-1
9-2
#7 Presious Passion
6-1
9-1
#6 Buddy's Home
6-1
9-1
Grand Couturier, 1st since Breeder's Cup is play against. Most likely tuning up for something bigger down the road #5 may want a little more distance, but has been running great lately. #1 ran into A class horses last out gets a little easier field here #7 Proven G2 horse and Elvis is a leading rider at MTH #6 2 for 3 on course won G3 2 back at GP
Then right back to CRC for Race 10 the 75k U Can do It Hdcp for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
CRC Race 10
5:08
#1 Marina Ballerina
6-5
9-5
#3 Jessica Is Back
4-1
6-1
#4 Orinoquia
5-1
8-1
#1 Won Coolair last out despite a very troubled trip. Looks clearly the best here and a P4 single. #3 Wolfson entry with go to rider Jermaine Bridgmohan aboard could be a threat #4 3rd off the layoff finished just a neck behind 2nd choice could turn the tables.
Race 10 Churchill G1 Stephen Foster Hdcp.
CD Race 10
5:29
#3 Einstein
3-1
9-2
#6 Bullsbay
7-2
5-1
#5 Researcher
9-2
7-1
#7 Asiatic Boy
6-1
9-1
#3 how can you pick against Einstein. A horse for any course considered better on grass but can hold his own with the best on dirt. #6 In great current form is 3 for 3 on the track and will have plenty of pace to run at. #5 I watched his last race at Charlestown and it was easier that it looked on paper. If the CT track record holder can transfer his form to CD, he'll be a force to be reckoned with. #7 is the wild card in this race not looking good enough to love and too good looking to ignore. Gets first lasix and I like the McLaughlin/Garcia combo
Rushing back to Calder for race 11 the 75k Ponche Hdcp for 3 and up.
CRC Race 11
5:34
#5 Yesbyjimminy
2-1
3-1
#2 Americanrevolution
5-2
4-1
#7 How's Your Halo
4-1
6-1
#5 has the proven ability to win this level race over the course, but the 6 yo gelding, #2, is 4 for 4 over the track and should be a threat. #7 is another Calder veteran who gets points for consistency. If the top two falter 7 will pick it up.
Race 11 The G3 Regret Stakes for 3yo Fillies. Note Excelente and Kiss Mine are scratched.
CD Race 11
5:58
#6 Oculuna
3-1
7-2
#10 Prytania
7-2
5-1
#5 Banker's Choice
4-1
6-1
#9 Keertana
6-1
9-1
#6 should set the pace in a paceless race and could run away if allowed to set easy early fractions. #10 will need some pace to run out. #5 Finished 3rd last out against better #9 Winner Alwn1x last out passed 4 horses down stretch
Finally out to the left coast for the Hollywood night cap the Grade 2 Californian Stakes for 3 and up
HOL Race 9
8:08
#2 Mast Track
3-1
9-2
#6 Song of Navaronne
7-2
5-1
#3 Rail Trip
9-2
7-1
#8 Ball Four
5-1
8-1
#2 Comes back to site of G1 win after a 2 month freshening. #6 Close on the 2's heels is #6 who finished a half length behind Its a Bird and Jonesboro at Lonestar. Main question is the surface. Pedigree is nothing special for AW surfaces. #3 Been watching this one all year. Speed to spare but the 8 horse is cut from the same cloth so it will be interesting to see if these two get suicidal on the front end or not.
My apologies for the less than detailed notes. As you can tell by my lack of posting and the time of this post, its been a hectic week.
Good Luck and enjoy the races.
Ok, today's another day. Calder Race Course has 5 stakes races scheduled for its Summit of Speed preview. The HANA race of the week is the 200k Monmouth Stakes for 3 and up and was a fun race to handicap. Let's hope its a fun race to cash in on.
The HANA race is also one of the Public Handicapper races as well. 2 of those races are at Churchill, the Stephen Foster with Einstein running and the Regret Stakes. Finally, its the nightcap, for us East Coasters at Hollywood Park with the Grade 2 Californian Stakes for 3 and up.
So without further ado.
Race 3 at CRC: Blazing Sword Stakes, 55k on Turf for 3 and up.
CRC Race 3
1:44
#1 Mambo Meister
3-2
5-2
#10 Vanquisher
7-2
5-1
#4 Motovato
9-2
7-1
#1 Winner last out appears to be the best here #10 Non Graded stakes winnner is 50% ITM on Turf #4 Turf debut for Motovato has B rated Turf sire and is in good form. Include no.'s 6, 8, 9 for trifecta
Race 8 at Calder. The Unbridled Stakes 100k, 6f for 3 year olds. This race is a 4 horse affair not likely to offer value, but maybe a good free space for the pick 4.
CRC Race 8
4:16
#2 You Luckie Mann
1-1
3-2
#4 Prince Joshua
5-1
8-1
#3 Bidham
6-1
9-1
#2 Wolfson HFC and obvious top choice. #4 Prince Joshua turnsback in distance and could possibly be a good separator in the P4 as everyone will likely single the 2. #3 improving 3yo finished just behind 2nd choice last out
Race 9 at CRC is the 100k Leave Me Alone Stakes for 3yo fillies.
CRC Race 9
4:42
#7 Mine All Mine
7-5
2-1
#3 First Passage
7-2
5-1
#1Donttellmewhattodo
9-2
7-1
#7 finished 2nd to the 3 last out. 2nd off layoff should move forward off that race for 50% trainer Wesley Ward. Ward/Lopez was deadly combo last year. #3 stumbled at the start and won anyway would not be a shocker #1 Doug O'Neill shipper gets good post and looks to be getting better each race.
To keep the races in chronological order, we'll move up the coast to Monmouth for the 200k Monmouth Stakes, Turf for 3 and up. Note Richard's Kid is already a scratch.
MTH Race 9
4:50
#5 Strike A Deal
5-2
4-1
#1 Proudinsky
3-1
9-2
#7 Presious Passion
6-1
9-1
#6 Buddy's Home
6-1
9-1
Grand Couturier, 1st since Breeder's Cup is play against. Most likely tuning up for something bigger down the road #5 may want a little more distance, but has been running great lately. #1 ran into A class horses last out gets a little easier field here #7 Proven G2 horse and Elvis is a leading rider at MTH #6 2 for 3 on course won G3 2 back at GP
Then right back to CRC for Race 10 the 75k U Can do It Hdcp for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
CRC Race 10
5:08
#1 Marina Ballerina
6-5
9-5
#3 Jessica Is Back
4-1
6-1
#4 Orinoquia
5-1
8-1
#1 Won Coolair last out despite a very troubled trip. Looks clearly the best here and a P4 single. #3 Wolfson entry with go to rider Jermaine Bridgmohan aboard could be a threat #4 3rd off the layoff finished just a neck behind 2nd choice could turn the tables.
Race 10 Churchill G1 Stephen Foster Hdcp.
CD Race 10
5:29
#3 Einstein
3-1
9-2
#6 Bullsbay
7-2
5-1
#5 Researcher
9-2
7-1
#7 Asiatic Boy
6-1
9-1
#3 how can you pick against Einstein. A horse for any course considered better on grass but can hold his own with the best on dirt. #6 In great current form is 3 for 3 on the track and will have plenty of pace to run at. #5 I watched his last race at Charlestown and it was easier that it looked on paper. If the CT track record holder can transfer his form to CD, he'll be a force to be reckoned with. #7 is the wild card in this race not looking good enough to love and too good looking to ignore. Gets first lasix and I like the McLaughlin/Garcia combo
Rushing back to Calder for race 11 the 75k Ponche Hdcp for 3 and up.
CRC Race 11
5:34
#5 Yesbyjimminy
2-1
3-1
#2 Americanrevolution
5-2
4-1
#7 How's Your Halo
4-1
6-1
#5 has the proven ability to win this level race over the course, but the 6 yo gelding, #2, is 4 for 4 over the track and should be a threat. #7 is another Calder veteran who gets points for consistency. If the top two falter 7 will pick it up.
Race 11 The G3 Regret Stakes for 3yo Fillies. Note Excelente and Kiss Mine are scratched.
CD Race 11
5:58
#6 Oculuna
3-1
7-2
#10 Prytania
7-2
5-1
#5 Banker's Choice
4-1
6-1
#9 Keertana
6-1
9-1
#6 should set the pace in a paceless race and could run away if allowed to set easy early fractions. #10 will need some pace to run out. #5 Finished 3rd last out against better #9 Winner Alwn1x last out passed 4 horses down stretch
Finally out to the left coast for the Hollywood night cap the Grade 2 Californian Stakes for 3 and up
HOL Race 9
8:08
#2 Mast Track
3-1
9-2
#6 Song of Navaronne
7-2
5-1
#3 Rail Trip
9-2
7-1
#8 Ball Four
5-1
8-1
#2 Comes back to site of G1 win after a 2 month freshening. #6 Close on the 2's heels is #6 who finished a half length behind Its a Bird and Jonesboro at Lonestar. Main question is the surface. Pedigree is nothing special for AW surfaces. #3 Been watching this one all year. Speed to spare but the 8 horse is cut from the same cloth so it will be interesting to see if these two get suicidal on the front end or not.
My apologies for the less than detailed notes. As you can tell by my lack of posting and the time of this post, its been a hectic week.
Good Luck and enjoy the races.
Saturday, June 6, 2009
Belmont Day!
Back to the races for me. Of course its Belmont Stakes day so there is a lot of excitement being generated. I'll be attending the races at Calder although I will likely run out of steam and come home to watch the big race on television.
Its a strange day at Calder with only one minor stakes race being run on the turf. The problem is, you think its been raining in New York, you've never seen anything like the gully washers we get here in Florida. I'm talking inches per hour. Currently, the sky is clear and cloudless, but we have had nearly non-stop afternoon rain for the last 2 weeks. I am very doubtful that Calder will run on the turf course today. At best they will only run the 11th race on the grass if it rains no more today. This makes handicapping all the races scheduled for turf near impossible because there is no way to know who is going to run on what surface until it is announced. As of this writing, it has not been announced.
The weather for New York is supposed to be perfect today. It will be interesting to see how much water the main track retains and how the surface will run. Yesterday the rail seemed like a conveyor belt and no one was making up any ground on the middle part of the track. The turf course will likely be pretty soggy, but I believe they will run on it as long as there is no more
rain and the jockeys don't protest too much.
Of course, I do have decisions on the races. The notes will be brief if any because I've been very busy this past week. Lucky for me, Public Handicapper made races 8, 9, 10, and 11 there races for the week so I was at least able to kill two birds with one stone as the cliche goes. You will also get two bonus races from Belmont so let's get started.
Race 6 is the True North Hdcp--G2 contested at 6f for 3up
#1 Benny The Bull
2-1
3-1
#6 Fabulous Strike
5-2
4-1
#3 Two Step Salsa
4-1
6-1
Benny The Bull has been off for 10 months. I saw him run his last race here at CRC. I thought I had heard or read that he was being retired to stud shortly after that race due to some kind of minor injury. I guess IEAH decided the stud market was not as strong as they would've liked this year. Please, no cards or letters on this one. Maybe I was mistaken. At any rate, 10 months is a long time off, but I still think BTB is the best sprinter in the country if he remains his old self. The way I see it, the cheap speed in the race, Sixthirteen, will force the stalkers to chase him faster than they would like setting the race up perfectly for Benny's big closing drive. Desert Key will be a factor in that scenario and may overcome it. But despite being right there his last 4 times out, he has not been able to get under the wire first for the big one. Bad case of 2nditis going on here. Two Step Salsa, fresh back from two UAE wins doesn't seem to have that problem and is 3 for 3 at the distance. Looks like an interesting race.
Race 7 Just A Game Stakes--G1 1mile on the grass for F and M 3up
#5 Forever Together
2-1
3-1
#1 Carribean Sunset
9-2
7-1
#4 I Lost My Choo
5-1
8-1
#3 Captain's Lover
6-1
9-1
This race reminded me alot of last weeks McKayMacKellan except with better horses. I think Forever Together is the standout. Flip a coin for the rest of the field. I found Carribean Sunset, Group 3 winner in Ireland, and Captain's Lover, Group 3 winner at Longchamp, to be intruiging because of their success on soft turf which I suspect we will have today. The knock against Captain's Lover will be the 8 month layoff or she would be the 2nd choice.
Race 8 Woody Stephens Stakes--G2 For 3 year olds
1/1A Regal Ranson/Everyday Heroes
3-1
9-2
#8 Hull
7-2
5-1
#2 This Ones For Phil
9-2
7-1
#6 Hello Broadway
6-1
9-1
I like the entry and its one of those rare occassions where I don't really care which or if both horses run, I still like the entry. Regal Ransom is coming off a perfect turnback set-up. One of my favorite angles. Its just too bad that, despite his 8th place finish, he is still likely to see alot of action. Hull is unbeaten in 3 tries including the G3 Derby Trial at Churchill. Tries to move to the next level. This Ones For Phil has made a believer out of me and turnsback to a distance that will be more to his liking. Hello Broadway ran a strange race last out setting impossible early fractions and fading to 4th behind Charitable Man, Imperial Council and Brave Victory. Barclay Tagg played dumb in an interview after the race suggesting that someday maybe they'd be able to get inside that horse's head. Now he's taking the blinkers back off and changing riders to Ramon Dominguez who has won at a 29% clip riding for Tagg over the last 60 days. Hmmmmm.
Race 9 Acorn Stakes--G1 I mile for Fillies 3yo.
#8 Justwhistledixie
5-2
4-1
#7 Dream Play
3-1
7-2
#5 Doremifasollatido
6-1
9-1
#1 Cassanova Move
6-1
9-1
Before scratching from the Ky Oaks, Justwhistledixie was the only horse I thought had the slightest chance of beating Rachel Alexandra. A bullet w/o over the track and an off/on figure pattern suggesting "on" for this race with Leparoux in the irons sounds like a winner to me. Dream Play has run 3 successive good races and can certainly beat the top choice which is why the odds for the fave are so tepid. I just put Doremifasollatido in here because I want to hear the track announcer call her name. Also, she is 2 of 4 over the track and 4 times in the money here. A G2 stakes winner coming 2nd off the layoff should be ready. Cassanova Move has finished 2nd or 3rd to the favorite 3 times. Is this the race where she moves forward? I don't know, but take a shot if she's a long price.
Race 10 Woodford Reserve Manhattan Hdcp--G1 1 1/4 mile on turf for 3 up
#1 Court Vision
3-1
9-2
#5 Gio Ponti
7-2
5-1
#12 Cowboy Cal
4-1
6-1
#2 Champs Elysees
5-1
8-1
Court Vision is a G1 winner, has won on the course, and has Ramon Dominguez winning at a 25% clip in Turf races on his back. Gio Ponti is just a horse that likes to win, 6 for 11 lifetime, and is 2 for 3 over the Belmont course. Cowboy Cal is a horse very capable of beating any of these in this competitive field including G1 winner Champs Elysees who gets the always dangerous Julian Lepaoux for the trip. A very competitive race that anyone of the four could win. Box the 0.10 cent superfecta on this one.
Now for the big one
Race 10 Belmont Stakes--G1 for 3 year olds.
#6 Charitable Man
3-1
9-2
#2 Dunkirk
7-2
5-1
#7 Mine That Bird
4-1
6-1
#4 Summer Bird
6-1
9-1
Charitable Man is rested 2 for 2 at Belmont, no worries about how he'll handle Big Sandy, and was pointed to this race after the Bluegrass Stakes. Dunkirk got mobbed in the Derby and had a bent shoe to show for his efforts. His quick turn of foot should put him in good position to be first under the wire. Mine That Bird has made me a believer; however, in the span of 5 weeks this horse has been vanned from New Mexico to New York and run in two difficult races along the way. Woolley says he's looking good and handling the track well, but I have my doubts about how much may be left in the tank. Summer Bird gets a top tier rider change to Kent Desormeaux who, no doubt, will want to perform better this year than he did in last year's race on Big Brown. Summer Bird came straight to Belmont from the Derby and, like Charitable Man and Dunkirk, should be fresh for the race. Just the type of longshot that so often wins this affair.
So there you have it. Good luck to you and safe trips for all the horses and riders.
Its a strange day at Calder with only one minor stakes race being run on the turf. The problem is, you think its been raining in New York, you've never seen anything like the gully washers we get here in Florida. I'm talking inches per hour. Currently, the sky is clear and cloudless, but we have had nearly non-stop afternoon rain for the last 2 weeks. I am very doubtful that Calder will run on the turf course today. At best they will only run the 11th race on the grass if it rains no more today. This makes handicapping all the races scheduled for turf near impossible because there is no way to know who is going to run on what surface until it is announced. As of this writing, it has not been announced.
The weather for New York is supposed to be perfect today. It will be interesting to see how much water the main track retains and how the surface will run. Yesterday the rail seemed like a conveyor belt and no one was making up any ground on the middle part of the track. The turf course will likely be pretty soggy, but I believe they will run on it as long as there is no more
rain and the jockeys don't protest too much.
Of course, I do have decisions on the races. The notes will be brief if any because I've been very busy this past week. Lucky for me, Public Handicapper made races 8, 9, 10, and 11 there races for the week so I was at least able to kill two birds with one stone as the cliche goes. You will also get two bonus races from Belmont so let's get started.
Race 6 is the True North Hdcp--G2 contested at 6f for 3up
#1 Benny The Bull
2-1
3-1
#6 Fabulous Strike
5-2
4-1
#3 Two Step Salsa
4-1
6-1
Benny The Bull has been off for 10 months. I saw him run his last race here at CRC. I thought I had heard or read that he was being retired to stud shortly after that race due to some kind of minor injury. I guess IEAH decided the stud market was not as strong as they would've liked this year. Please, no cards or letters on this one. Maybe I was mistaken. At any rate, 10 months is a long time off, but I still think BTB is the best sprinter in the country if he remains his old self. The way I see it, the cheap speed in the race, Sixthirteen, will force the stalkers to chase him faster than they would like setting the race up perfectly for Benny's big closing drive. Desert Key will be a factor in that scenario and may overcome it. But despite being right there his last 4 times out, he has not been able to get under the wire first for the big one. Bad case of 2nditis going on here. Two Step Salsa, fresh back from two UAE wins doesn't seem to have that problem and is 3 for 3 at the distance. Looks like an interesting race.
Race 7 Just A Game Stakes--G1 1mile on the grass for F and M 3up
#5 Forever Together
2-1
3-1
#1 Carribean Sunset
9-2
7-1
#4 I Lost My Choo
5-1
8-1
#3 Captain's Lover
6-1
9-1
This race reminded me alot of last weeks McKayMacKellan except with better horses. I think Forever Together is the standout. Flip a coin for the rest of the field. I found Carribean Sunset, Group 3 winner in Ireland, and Captain's Lover, Group 3 winner at Longchamp, to be intruiging because of their success on soft turf which I suspect we will have today. The knock against Captain's Lover will be the 8 month layoff or she would be the 2nd choice.
Race 8 Woody Stephens Stakes--G2 For 3 year olds
1/1A Regal Ranson/Everyday Heroes
3-1
9-2
#8 Hull
7-2
5-1
#2 This Ones For Phil
9-2
7-1
#6 Hello Broadway
6-1
9-1
I like the entry and its one of those rare occassions where I don't really care which or if both horses run, I still like the entry. Regal Ransom is coming off a perfect turnback set-up. One of my favorite angles. Its just too bad that, despite his 8th place finish, he is still likely to see alot of action. Hull is unbeaten in 3 tries including the G3 Derby Trial at Churchill. Tries to move to the next level. This Ones For Phil has made a believer out of me and turnsback to a distance that will be more to his liking. Hello Broadway ran a strange race last out setting impossible early fractions and fading to 4th behind Charitable Man, Imperial Council and Brave Victory. Barclay Tagg played dumb in an interview after the race suggesting that someday maybe they'd be able to get inside that horse's head. Now he's taking the blinkers back off and changing riders to Ramon Dominguez who has won at a 29% clip riding for Tagg over the last 60 days. Hmmmmm.
Race 9 Acorn Stakes--G1 I mile for Fillies 3yo.
#8 Justwhistledixie
5-2
4-1
#7 Dream Play
3-1
7-2
#5 Doremifasollatido
6-1
9-1
#1 Cassanova Move
6-1
9-1
Before scratching from the Ky Oaks, Justwhistledixie was the only horse I thought had the slightest chance of beating Rachel Alexandra. A bullet w/o over the track and an off/on figure pattern suggesting "on" for this race with Leparoux in the irons sounds like a winner to me. Dream Play has run 3 successive good races and can certainly beat the top choice which is why the odds for the fave are so tepid. I just put Doremifasollatido in here because I want to hear the track announcer call her name. Also, she is 2 of 4 over the track and 4 times in the money here. A G2 stakes winner coming 2nd off the layoff should be ready. Cassanova Move has finished 2nd or 3rd to the favorite 3 times. Is this the race where she moves forward? I don't know, but take a shot if she's a long price.
Race 10 Woodford Reserve Manhattan Hdcp--G1 1 1/4 mile on turf for 3 up
#1 Court Vision
3-1
9-2
#5 Gio Ponti
7-2
5-1
#12 Cowboy Cal
4-1
6-1
#2 Champs Elysees
5-1
8-1
Court Vision is a G1 winner, has won on the course, and has Ramon Dominguez winning at a 25% clip in Turf races on his back. Gio Ponti is just a horse that likes to win, 6 for 11 lifetime, and is 2 for 3 over the Belmont course. Cowboy Cal is a horse very capable of beating any of these in this competitive field including G1 winner Champs Elysees who gets the always dangerous Julian Lepaoux for the trip. A very competitive race that anyone of the four could win. Box the 0.10 cent superfecta on this one.
Now for the big one
Race 10 Belmont Stakes--G1 for 3 year olds.
#6 Charitable Man
3-1
9-2
#2 Dunkirk
7-2
5-1
#7 Mine That Bird
4-1
6-1
#4 Summer Bird
6-1
9-1
Charitable Man is rested 2 for 2 at Belmont, no worries about how he'll handle Big Sandy, and was pointed to this race after the Bluegrass Stakes. Dunkirk got mobbed in the Derby and had a bent shoe to show for his efforts. His quick turn of foot should put him in good position to be first under the wire. Mine That Bird has made me a believer; however, in the span of 5 weeks this horse has been vanned from New Mexico to New York and run in two difficult races along the way. Woolley says he's looking good and handling the track well, but I have my doubts about how much may be left in the tank. Summer Bird gets a top tier rider change to Kent Desormeaux who, no doubt, will want to perform better this year than he did in last year's race on Big Brown. Summer Bird came straight to Belmont from the Derby and, like Charitable Man and Dunkirk, should be fresh for the race. Just the type of longshot that so often wins this affair.
So there you have it. Good luck to you and safe trips for all the horses and riders.
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Post Race Analysis for May 23
Back again. Officially, as far as the PH is concerned, I was 0 for 4.
Unofficially, and better for me, Euphony led broke alertly from the gate and led going into the clubhouse turned. Going down the backstretch, Euphony allowed the 90-1 Boudoir to go to the lead. Never trailing the leader by more than a length Euphony took command at the top of the stretch and was easily the best of Indescibable (show) and Kiss With A Twist (place) neither of whom could make up any ground on the winner. Euphony paid 17.80 to win. The $1 exacta, which I also had, paid $49.50. If only I'd played the Trifecta.
6/1 in the morning line, Euphony went off at nearly 8-1. Honestly, I cannot understand how the betting collective allowed Euphony to get off at such a price. Indescribable went of at 4/5 as the deserving favorite. Indescribable, coming off of 2 G3 wins deserved to be the favorite, but not at 4/5. There are two reasons I can think of for Euphony to be so relatively dismissed: 1) No G3 wins and 2) no experience on artificial surfaces.
When I am handicapping Graded Stakes races. The first thing I look for are horses which have shown that they are capable of winning at that level. However, when looking specifically at G3 races, one also has to be aware of 1) horses dropping in from G2 races and 2) up and coming horses that are demonstrating good form. Euphony obviously comes out of that latter group and is really the type you need to be on the lookout for because you won't get 8 to 1 on her next race. In many ways, this reminds me of Wild Promises who came to CRC last year after dominating stakes races at Golden Gate. Wild Promises went off at 5/1 that race and I couldn't believe my good fortune. Good luck getting 5/1 on Wild Promises after that race.
Thus, I come to the other hang up we handicappers have. Euphony's lack of artificial surface form. One item that I have recently been incorporating into my handicapping tool-kit is pedigree. I have previously pretty much paid no attention to pedigree, but have recently been learning of how powerful a tool pedigree can actually be. If one checks Euphony's pedigree, she was sired by Forest Wildcat out of the Smart Strike mare Strike It Up. Accordign to the Sire Stats book put out by Thoroughbred Sports Network, both of sides of Euphony's pedigree are above average (B rated) all-weather surface sires. But in this case, I didn't need to refer to the reference book to know that Euphony would handle the surface fine. As I wrote before, Euphony had won 4 consecutive stakes races on at 4 different tracks, 2 on turf, and 2 on dirt. In addition, Euphony had been training very well at Arlington including 2 bullet workouts over fake dirt. There was no doubt in my mind that Euphony would handle the surface. Some horses care about the surface and some don't. Euphony clearly fits into the latter category.
Ok, so much for my big win of the day, what about all those losses. The Sheepshead Bay at Belmont was a pretty simple race to handicap. Criticism was the horse to beat, and there was a way to beat him. Unfortunately, Kiaran McLaughlin's uncoupled entry raced as an uncoupled entry as both horses, in tandem, dropped to the back of the pack at the start of the race and Criticism was once again allowed to relax on an uncontested lead. The past performances suggested that Colina Verde, ridden by Alan Garcia, might be inclined to apply some pressure to Criticism and make him actually work for his lead. Instead, Garcia instantly applied a choke hold to Colina Verde at the start and Criticism led the field from wire to wire without ever being truly challenged. An outcome which I warned of but didn't wager on.
The Louisville handicap at Churchill Downs just turned out to be one of those races that all handicappers run into. Brass Hat has been winless for the last year and a half. At one time a top grass runner, it seemed as if 8 year old gelding's best competitive years were behind him. The real disappointment in this race was betting choice Always First who never really seriously contended in this race. Spice Route and Thabazimbi pretty much went as expected and just got beat today. I think the clues to Always First less than inspired performance likely lies in the comment lines for his last two races: 1) Lacked closing bid and 2) failed to menace. Perhaps at 8 years of age, Always First is losing interest. Note for next time. Check out the race replay.
Perhaps the most surprising outcome was in the Hanshin Hdcp. While not considered a contender for my selection purposes T=the winner, Vacation, ridden by J. R. Velazquez and trained by Claude "Shug" McGaughey (Gee, I wish I had a great nickname like that) was not a shocker. I thought Stonehouse would regress based upon his recent figure patterns and Cherokee Artist gave it a good effort in finishing 3rd, but Coragil Cat laid a big fat egg out there starting last out of the gate and finishing last at the end. Coming back 2nd off a layoff to a track where he had run well before, this just doesn't figure. But then, racing doesn't always figure. Fortunately for you, this race was a pass. Unfortunately for me, I had to make my play earlier than normal due to unusual circumstances while Coragil Cat was still at playable odds. That'll teach me not to use that conditional option. Looking critically at my own performance, Stonehouse should not have been a contender if I felt he was going to regress to form insufficient to win. I am satisfied with the other selections, if not the outcome. The elimination of Stonehouse as a contender could have made room for a 4th contender or just left it at 3 lowering the needed odds on the remaining 3.
Finally, coming to the HANA race of the week at Canterbury PARK, I had the top two finishers in order despite the race being moved to the main track. OK, really now, does anyone really believe that 10k claimers care about the surface? Especially when most of these weren't particularly the specialist type anyways. My bet was the longshot Elegant Star. I said in my analysis that I thought he was a notch below the others and as it turned out I was correct. But, if you can't take a shot in a race like this, when will you ever take a shot? Elegant Star stayed in contention for about a half and then fell back to bring up the rear, but that's OK. You can't win them all.
There was alot of talk on the HANA discussion group about how this race was a failure for the In The Pool buycott. Also some discussion about how our Canadian cousins were shut out of the action. I hope what has begun as a positive movement to improve the sport we all love doesn't devolve into a pissing contest because everyone can't be pleased all of the time. Sheesh, were horse players, you'd think we'd be used to losing every now and then.
'Til the next time.
Chalk Eating Weasel
Addendum: As reported by Bloodhorse.com, Jockey Rene Douglas has come out of 7 hours of surgery due to injuries incurred in an accident during the Matron Hdcp at Arlington Park yesterday. The incident occured when Born To Be clipped heels with Boudoir after being bumped by Sky Mom. Born To Be threw Douglas and the flipped over and landed on top of the rider. Bloodhorse reports that at this time it is unlikely Douglas will walk again; however that will not be known for certain until the swelling in the spinal area recedes. Bloodhorse also reported that Born To Be has recovered from the incident and has been returned to the barn of trainer Eric Cointreaux.
Pray or hope or make a sacrifice or whatever you do to get a good outcome over something you have no control over for the recovery of Rene Douglas.
Correction: In the post above I said that Brass Hat was, at one time, a top turf horse. The Bloodhorse reports that prior to Saturday's race, Brass Hat had not won in 7 tries over grass hardly qualifying as a top turf horse. All the same, had I been privy to that information, I would've been even less inclined to consider Brass Hat a contender. I remain of the opinion that Brass Hat is a classy horse and congratulate Calvin Borel on another great ride in this remarkable season he is having.
Unofficially, and better for me, Euphony led broke alertly from the gate and led going into the clubhouse turned. Going down the backstretch, Euphony allowed the 90-1 Boudoir to go to the lead. Never trailing the leader by more than a length Euphony took command at the top of the stretch and was easily the best of Indescibable (show) and Kiss With A Twist (place) neither of whom could make up any ground on the winner. Euphony paid 17.80 to win. The $1 exacta, which I also had, paid $49.50. If only I'd played the Trifecta.
6/1 in the morning line, Euphony went off at nearly 8-1. Honestly, I cannot understand how the betting collective allowed Euphony to get off at such a price. Indescribable went of at 4/5 as the deserving favorite. Indescribable, coming off of 2 G3 wins deserved to be the favorite, but not at 4/5. There are two reasons I can think of for Euphony to be so relatively dismissed: 1) No G3 wins and 2) no experience on artificial surfaces.
When I am handicapping Graded Stakes races. The first thing I look for are horses which have shown that they are capable of winning at that level. However, when looking specifically at G3 races, one also has to be aware of 1) horses dropping in from G2 races and 2) up and coming horses that are demonstrating good form. Euphony obviously comes out of that latter group and is really the type you need to be on the lookout for because you won't get 8 to 1 on her next race. In many ways, this reminds me of Wild Promises who came to CRC last year after dominating stakes races at Golden Gate. Wild Promises went off at 5/1 that race and I couldn't believe my good fortune. Good luck getting 5/1 on Wild Promises after that race.
Thus, I come to the other hang up we handicappers have. Euphony's lack of artificial surface form. One item that I have recently been incorporating into my handicapping tool-kit is pedigree. I have previously pretty much paid no attention to pedigree, but have recently been learning of how powerful a tool pedigree can actually be. If one checks Euphony's pedigree, she was sired by Forest Wildcat out of the Smart Strike mare Strike It Up. Accordign to the Sire Stats book put out by Thoroughbred Sports Network, both of sides of Euphony's pedigree are above average (B rated) all-weather surface sires. But in this case, I didn't need to refer to the reference book to know that Euphony would handle the surface fine. As I wrote before, Euphony had won 4 consecutive stakes races on at 4 different tracks, 2 on turf, and 2 on dirt. In addition, Euphony had been training very well at Arlington including 2 bullet workouts over fake dirt. There was no doubt in my mind that Euphony would handle the surface. Some horses care about the surface and some don't. Euphony clearly fits into the latter category.
Ok, so much for my big win of the day, what about all those losses. The Sheepshead Bay at Belmont was a pretty simple race to handicap. Criticism was the horse to beat, and there was a way to beat him. Unfortunately, Kiaran McLaughlin's uncoupled entry raced as an uncoupled entry as both horses, in tandem, dropped to the back of the pack at the start of the race and Criticism was once again allowed to relax on an uncontested lead. The past performances suggested that Colina Verde, ridden by Alan Garcia, might be inclined to apply some pressure to Criticism and make him actually work for his lead. Instead, Garcia instantly applied a choke hold to Colina Verde at the start and Criticism led the field from wire to wire without ever being truly challenged. An outcome which I warned of but didn't wager on.
The Louisville handicap at Churchill Downs just turned out to be one of those races that all handicappers run into. Brass Hat has been winless for the last year and a half. At one time a top grass runner, it seemed as if 8 year old gelding's best competitive years were behind him. The real disappointment in this race was betting choice Always First who never really seriously contended in this race. Spice Route and Thabazimbi pretty much went as expected and just got beat today. I think the clues to Always First less than inspired performance likely lies in the comment lines for his last two races: 1) Lacked closing bid and 2) failed to menace. Perhaps at 8 years of age, Always First is losing interest. Note for next time. Check out the race replay.
Perhaps the most surprising outcome was in the Hanshin Hdcp. While not considered a contender for my selection purposes T=the winner, Vacation, ridden by J. R. Velazquez and trained by Claude "Shug" McGaughey (Gee, I wish I had a great nickname like that) was not a shocker. I thought Stonehouse would regress based upon his recent figure patterns and Cherokee Artist gave it a good effort in finishing 3rd, but Coragil Cat laid a big fat egg out there starting last out of the gate and finishing last at the end. Coming back 2nd off a layoff to a track where he had run well before, this just doesn't figure. But then, racing doesn't always figure. Fortunately for you, this race was a pass. Unfortunately for me, I had to make my play earlier than normal due to unusual circumstances while Coragil Cat was still at playable odds. That'll teach me not to use that conditional option. Looking critically at my own performance, Stonehouse should not have been a contender if I felt he was going to regress to form insufficient to win. I am satisfied with the other selections, if not the outcome. The elimination of Stonehouse as a contender could have made room for a 4th contender or just left it at 3 lowering the needed odds on the remaining 3.
Finally, coming to the HANA race of the week at Canterbury PARK, I had the top two finishers in order despite the race being moved to the main track. OK, really now, does anyone really believe that 10k claimers care about the surface? Especially when most of these weren't particularly the specialist type anyways. My bet was the longshot Elegant Star. I said in my analysis that I thought he was a notch below the others and as it turned out I was correct. But, if you can't take a shot in a race like this, when will you ever take a shot? Elegant Star stayed in contention for about a half and then fell back to bring up the rear, but that's OK. You can't win them all.
There was alot of talk on the HANA discussion group about how this race was a failure for the In The Pool buycott. Also some discussion about how our Canadian cousins were shut out of the action. I hope what has begun as a positive movement to improve the sport we all love doesn't devolve into a pissing contest because everyone can't be pleased all of the time. Sheesh, were horse players, you'd think we'd be used to losing every now and then.
'Til the next time.
Chalk Eating Weasel
Addendum: As reported by Bloodhorse.com, Jockey Rene Douglas has come out of 7 hours of surgery due to injuries incurred in an accident during the Matron Hdcp at Arlington Park yesterday. The incident occured when Born To Be clipped heels with Boudoir after being bumped by Sky Mom. Born To Be threw Douglas and the flipped over and landed on top of the rider. Bloodhorse reports that at this time it is unlikely Douglas will walk again; however that will not be known for certain until the swelling in the spinal area recedes. Bloodhorse also reported that Born To Be has recovered from the incident and has been returned to the barn of trainer Eric Cointreaux.
Pray or hope or make a sacrifice or whatever you do to get a good outcome over something you have no control over for the recovery of Rene Douglas.
Correction: In the post above I said that Brass Hat was, at one time, a top turf horse. The Bloodhorse reports that prior to Saturday's race, Brass Hat had not won in 7 tries over grass hardly qualifying as a top turf horse. All the same, had I been privy to that information, I would've been even less inclined to consider Brass Hat a contender. I remain of the opinion that Brass Hat is a classy horse and congratulate Calvin Borel on another great ride in this remarkable season he is having.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
And The Winner Is
Not me. Unless you get to count now sitting comfortably at home sipping on a nice glass of Buffalo Trace on the rocks.
I warned you about my feelings on the Hawthorne race 6, so if you followed my advice on that one, I take no responsibility. If it were not a HANA Pool Race I would have passed it altogether.
Had the trifecta cold in the 7th race at Calder, not that you would've gotten rich out of a 5 horse race. Actually the race was a pass with no overlays although I did play $2 on the winner in my ADW account so as to avoid paying for the Form today. That's one way to get better than 4 to 5 on a legitimate favorite.
The 8th race was the most frustrating for me. If you read my earlier post, and are actually foolish enough to take my advice, you would've played the #6 horse Annabill at a nice 3-1 price. Not a bomb, but you need these low priced overlays too. However, I was there and saw Annabill in the paddock. Annabill had her ears pinned back, was shaking, and sweating heavily. Normally, if I can get 3-1 on a horse I make 6-5, I'm all over it. In this case, I took Annabill out of play. Had I been playing the home game, I'd have never seen this and played my top choice and cashed a nice wager. Perhaps, next time, if I'm on the premises, I'll just pass the race.
The 9th race should've been a pass with no overlays, and had I been playing the home game I'd have known that. But after making my wager with 1 MTP, #10 Baron Von Tap dropped from 9-1 to 8-1 on the 0 MTP click. What can you do? Again, playing the home game I don't have to hit the submit button until I see the 0 MTP click and could have passed the race. As it was, I didn't have the eventual winner as a contender so I kind of whiffed on that one even though my 2nd choice finished 2nd and the Baron finished 4th, so I didn't totally miss. More like a foul ball.
At least for the 10th race, I was on the right track even if it was the wrong train. Finallymadeit went 5 wide into the first turn. Didn't make the lead and finished up the track and Dream Maestro did, indeed, turn the tables on Finallymadeit. Hopefully, now Javier Negrete will give Finallymadeit the rest he well deserves. Unfortunately for Dream Maestro, Motovato was the best today. I was on the #1 Hey Bryn who wound up at 5-1 and finished 3rd. Hey Bryn tried hard but was no match for the top two today. I don't mind losing this way, at least I had the right contenders, if I stay this close, I'll get my share...and yours too.
May the horse be with you.
I warned you about my feelings on the Hawthorne race 6, so if you followed my advice on that one, I take no responsibility. If it were not a HANA Pool Race I would have passed it altogether.
Had the trifecta cold in the 7th race at Calder, not that you would've gotten rich out of a 5 horse race. Actually the race was a pass with no overlays although I did play $2 on the winner in my ADW account so as to avoid paying for the Form today. That's one way to get better than 4 to 5 on a legitimate favorite.
The 8th race was the most frustrating for me. If you read my earlier post, and are actually foolish enough to take my advice, you would've played the #6 horse Annabill at a nice 3-1 price. Not a bomb, but you need these low priced overlays too. However, I was there and saw Annabill in the paddock. Annabill had her ears pinned back, was shaking, and sweating heavily. Normally, if I can get 3-1 on a horse I make 6-5, I'm all over it. In this case, I took Annabill out of play. Had I been playing the home game, I'd have never seen this and played my top choice and cashed a nice wager. Perhaps, next time, if I'm on the premises, I'll just pass the race.
The 9th race should've been a pass with no overlays, and had I been playing the home game I'd have known that. But after making my wager with 1 MTP, #10 Baron Von Tap dropped from 9-1 to 8-1 on the 0 MTP click. What can you do? Again, playing the home game I don't have to hit the submit button until I see the 0 MTP click and could have passed the race. As it was, I didn't have the eventual winner as a contender so I kind of whiffed on that one even though my 2nd choice finished 2nd and the Baron finished 4th, so I didn't totally miss. More like a foul ball.
At least for the 10th race, I was on the right track even if it was the wrong train. Finallymadeit went 5 wide into the first turn. Didn't make the lead and finished up the track and Dream Maestro did, indeed, turn the tables on Finallymadeit. Hopefully, now Javier Negrete will give Finallymadeit the rest he well deserves. Unfortunately for Dream Maestro, Motovato was the best today. I was on the #1 Hey Bryn who wound up at 5-1 and finished 3rd. Hey Bryn tried hard but was no match for the top two today. I don't mind losing this way, at least I had the right contenders, if I stay this close, I'll get my share...and yours too.
May the horse be with you.
Some Saturday Picks
No time for chit chat. Need to help out with some housework to maintain domestic tranquility before I go to CRC for some live racing later this afternoon. Thought I'd give you some picks to chew on before I leave.
First in line is the HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) the 100k Pretty Jenny Stakes for 3yo Fillies restricted to Illinois breds from Hawthorne Park in Chicago.
I have to admit that I dont really have a good feel for this race so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle and looked for horses making 3yo debut after showing promise as 2yo's. Here are the picks. I will most likely only make a token wager on this one just for the cause.
P# 6th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Miss Fontana
3-1
9-2
#10 Happy Henrietta
7-2
5-1
#3 Tessies Tilbury
4-1
6-1
#9 Cumulonimble
6-1
9-1
The HANA Race of the week and I have to admit that I really don't have a good feel for this matchup of Ill breds, so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle of looking for horses that showed promise as 2 yo's making their 3 yo debut. #2 fits that bill winning her 2 yo debut and a State bred stakes before being put on the shelf in Aug last year. Inez Karlsson gets back on. #10 also fits the profile in winning 2yo debut and a state bred stakes in December, comes back after a 4 month freshening. #3 is one for two and could keep on improving with a Hi % jockey aboard and 2nd place OCn1x effort against non state breds. #9 hasn't won yet, but has been in the money 3 of 3 as a 2yo including 2nd in state restricted race and is making 3yo debut. Brandon Meier made the right decision in coming back to Chicago.
Opening Saturday at Calder Race Course and 4 stakes make the opening weekend card including two Graded stakes. I was disappointed to see they were not running with their 2:30 Friday post times this year. I've really enjoyed leaving work on Fridays and catching the late half of the card. I will miss that a lot. I can still do the simulcast from some other track, but its just not the same as seeing real horses.
The 7th race today is the 1 1/2 Mile (turf) LaPrevoyante Handicap-G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.
P# 7th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Criticism
1-1
3-2
#2 Long Approach
5-1
8-1
#3 Icon Project
6-1
9-1
#4 2 time G3 Marathon winner is definitely the one to beat #2 Hi % turf jockey Desormeaux travels south from Ky to team up with Hi % trainer Johnathan Sheppard, not for nothing. #3 Wolfson comes back to the track he dominates and Trujillo rides at track he dominated 2 years ago. Wolfy always has a shot a Calder
Next is the 1 mile 70 yards Emergency Nurse Stakes-Purse 55k for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
P# 8th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Annabill
6-5
9-5
#7 Eclisse
7-2
5-1
#2 Tiara Di Oro
6-1
9-1
#6 The other Wolfson gets his chance to shine here. Annabill wins at a near 50% clip at CRC is 4 of 9 at the distance, is a stakes winner and comes into the race fresh. #7 Marty Wolfson's horse is the only speed in the race and may be able to steal it on the front end. #2 The 2nd Marty Wolfson entry in the race is lightly raced and showing improvement in its last 3 races.
Race 9 is the 1 Mile (Turf) Miami Mile Handicap G3 for 3 and up.
P# 9th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Rogue Victory
3-1
9-2
#6 Mambo Meister
7-2
5-1
#1 Vanquisher
4-1
6-1
#10 Baron Von Tap
6-1
9-1
I'm expecting that Finallymadeit, Dream Maestro, and Motovato, will scratch out of this race and move to the 10 on dirt where they are also entered, but I have not yet been able to confirm this.#2 Does anyone think Desormeaux is giving up opening Sat. at CD to lose in S. Fla #2 has won 3 of 9 and his running lines look like he's getting ready to pop a big one. #6 is a stakes winner and 1 for three on CRC Turf. Manny Cruz gets back on the Meister. #1 Another tough customer, Stakes winner that is 6 for 17 on the sod with a High % Trainer. #10 may do nothing and may be the upset special of the day. Veteran turf specialist (8yo) with loads of back class has been revived since moving to Ziadie's barn 4 races ago.
And finally the 1 Mile 70 yards Sumter Stakes 55k for 3 and up.
P# 10th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Dream Maestro
3-1
9-2
#1 Hey Byrn
7-2
5-1
#7 Motovato
4-1
6-1
#8 Finallymadeit
6-1
9-1
#6 Finally gets to turn the tables on the 8 in a race where the 8 should face more of a pace challenge from Hal's My Hope and Honey Honey Honey. #1 comes in fresh off a turf effort where it became obvious he didn't belong. The rest should do him good and expect return to January form #7 Elvis and Marty team up again and this is another that has the look of a horse moving forward, expect a big effort here. #8 Negrete keeps putting this one out there every 21 days and this one keeps running; however others in this race may show a greater willingness to challenge this need to leader for the early fractions this time. Still this is a gritty horse that can't be totally discounted.
Note as of this writing the 3 dual entered horses have not scratched from either race. Depending on how the scratches fall out, all of the above for races 9 and 10 could be horse manure.
First in line is the HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) the 100k Pretty Jenny Stakes for 3yo Fillies restricted to Illinois breds from Hawthorne Park in Chicago.
I have to admit that I dont really have a good feel for this race so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle and looked for horses making 3yo debut after showing promise as 2yo's. Here are the picks. I will most likely only make a token wager on this one just for the cause.
P# 6th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Miss Fontana
3-1
9-2
#10 Happy Henrietta
7-2
5-1
#3 Tessies Tilbury
4-1
6-1
#9 Cumulonimble
6-1
9-1
The HANA Race of the week and I have to admit that I really don't have a good feel for this matchup of Ill breds, so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle of looking for horses that showed promise as 2 yo's making their 3 yo debut. #2 fits that bill winning her 2 yo debut and a State bred stakes before being put on the shelf in Aug last year. Inez Karlsson gets back on. #10 also fits the profile in winning 2yo debut and a state bred stakes in December, comes back after a 4 month freshening. #3 is one for two and could keep on improving with a Hi % jockey aboard and 2nd place OCn1x effort against non state breds. #9 hasn't won yet, but has been in the money 3 of 3 as a 2yo including 2nd in state restricted race and is making 3yo debut. Brandon Meier made the right decision in coming back to Chicago.
Opening Saturday at Calder Race Course and 4 stakes make the opening weekend card including two Graded stakes. I was disappointed to see they were not running with their 2:30 Friday post times this year. I've really enjoyed leaving work on Fridays and catching the late half of the card. I will miss that a lot. I can still do the simulcast from some other track, but its just not the same as seeing real horses.
The 7th race today is the 1 1/2 Mile (turf) LaPrevoyante Handicap-G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.
P# 7th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Criticism
1-1
3-2
#2 Long Approach
5-1
8-1
#3 Icon Project
6-1
9-1
#4 2 time G3 Marathon winner is definitely the one to beat #2 Hi % turf jockey Desormeaux travels south from Ky to team up with Hi % trainer Johnathan Sheppard, not for nothing. #3 Wolfson comes back to the track he dominates and Trujillo rides at track he dominated 2 years ago. Wolfy always has a shot a Calder
Next is the 1 mile 70 yards Emergency Nurse Stakes-Purse 55k for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
P# 8th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Annabill
6-5
9-5
#7 Eclisse
7-2
5-1
#2 Tiara Di Oro
6-1
9-1
#6 The other Wolfson gets his chance to shine here. Annabill wins at a near 50% clip at CRC is 4 of 9 at the distance, is a stakes winner and comes into the race fresh. #7 Marty Wolfson's horse is the only speed in the race and may be able to steal it on the front end. #2 The 2nd Marty Wolfson entry in the race is lightly raced and showing improvement in its last 3 races.
Race 9 is the 1 Mile (Turf) Miami Mile Handicap G3 for 3 and up.
P# 9th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Rogue Victory
3-1
9-2
#6 Mambo Meister
7-2
5-1
#1 Vanquisher
4-1
6-1
#10 Baron Von Tap
6-1
9-1
I'm expecting that Finallymadeit, Dream Maestro, and Motovato, will scratch out of this race and move to the 10 on dirt where they are also entered, but I have not yet been able to confirm this.#2 Does anyone think Desormeaux is giving up opening Sat. at CD to lose in S. Fla #2 has won 3 of 9 and his running lines look like he's getting ready to pop a big one. #6 is a stakes winner and 1 for three on CRC Turf. Manny Cruz gets back on the Meister. #1 Another tough customer, Stakes winner that is 6 for 17 on the sod with a High % Trainer. #10 may do nothing and may be the upset special of the day. Veteran turf specialist (8yo) with loads of back class has been revived since moving to Ziadie's barn 4 races ago.
And finally the 1 Mile 70 yards Sumter Stakes 55k for 3 and up.
P# 10th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Dream Maestro
3-1
9-2
#1 Hey Byrn
7-2
5-1
#7 Motovato
4-1
6-1
#8 Finallymadeit
6-1
9-1
#6 Finally gets to turn the tables on the 8 in a race where the 8 should face more of a pace challenge from Hal's My Hope and Honey Honey Honey. #1 comes in fresh off a turf effort where it became obvious he didn't belong. The rest should do him good and expect return to January form #7 Elvis and Marty team up again and this is another that has the look of a horse moving forward, expect a big effort here. #8 Negrete keeps putting this one out there every 21 days and this one keeps running; however others in this race may show a greater willingness to challenge this need to leader for the early fractions this time. Still this is a gritty horse that can't be totally discounted.
Note as of this writing the 3 dual entered horses have not scratched from either race. Depending on how the scratches fall out, all of the above for races 9 and 10 could be horse manure.
Friday, April 17, 2009
Playing the Home Game
You might've already noticed a change in the Scoreboard to the immediate left. This is due to the fact that I expect to be playing the home game more often for the foreseeable future. The new arrival in my house, now officially named Max (Ruffian was rejected), is very demanding and it is difficult to get much done with a six week old puppy requiring constant attention. Because of this, I think it would be very unfair of me to abandon my darling wife (you thought I was going to say puppy, didn't you?). Therefore my weekly forays to the local racing facilities will be somewhat curtailed at least until the puppy can be trusted to fend for himself a little better in a few months or years or til death do us part.
I started out using the board to follow my Public Handicapper picks, but that is not really an accurate measure of what I'm doing. I'm going to say this knowing full well all the snarky comments I an leaving myself open to. My handicapping methodology is not so much about picking the winner. I prefer to pick losers! Just kidding ;-D Actually, I prefer to pick contenders and then make a play or not based on my opinion of fair odds. Because of that the few wagers I put in there were not necessarily real wagers. That discouraged me and I found it to be pointless. And since I do most of my wagering at the track, it didn't really seem correct to come back after the fact and put up numbers.
Therefore, I removed the phony wagers and the ones you see there now are ones I made and posted in real time. For tomorrow, I'm going to look at a few races from Gulfstream and Keeneland and maybe even head up to Woodbine for a race. Tune in occassionally and you'll be able to see what the weasel is up to in real time.
Oh, and don't worry about that 34% ROI. It won't last very long. I'll be satified just to keep it on the positive side. I found a couple of playable races at Golden Gate for this afternoon. Got the exacta in race two and a dead heat in race 6 turned my 5-2 into 4 -5. So tune in early and tune in often. See what I'm playing then do something else, you can't lose that way.
May the horse be with you
I started out using the board to follow my Public Handicapper picks, but that is not really an accurate measure of what I'm doing. I'm going to say this knowing full well all the snarky comments I an leaving myself open to. My handicapping methodology is not so much about picking the winner. I prefer to pick losers! Just kidding ;-D Actually, I prefer to pick contenders and then make a play or not based on my opinion of fair odds. Because of that the few wagers I put in there were not necessarily real wagers. That discouraged me and I found it to be pointless. And since I do most of my wagering at the track, it didn't really seem correct to come back after the fact and put up numbers.
Therefore, I removed the phony wagers and the ones you see there now are ones I made and posted in real time. For tomorrow, I'm going to look at a few races from Gulfstream and Keeneland and maybe even head up to Woodbine for a race. Tune in occassionally and you'll be able to see what the weasel is up to in real time.
Oh, and don't worry about that 34% ROI. It won't last very long. I'll be satified just to keep it on the positive side. I found a couple of playable races at Golden Gate for this afternoon. Got the exacta in race two and a dead heat in race 6 turned my 5-2 into 4 -5. So tune in early and tune in often. See what I'm playing then do something else, you can't lose that way.
May the horse be with you
Monday, April 13, 2009
Mountaineer Race 3: Get In the Pool
The HANA get in the pool race for tomorrow is race 3, a 5k Claimer for non-winners of 2 lifetime. I think Mark Cramer would call this a lesser of evils race, but there could be some overlap into the contentious race category as the field certainly seems evenly matched. Remember the idea is to flood the exacta pool in this race so put your thinking caps on.
And speaking of my favorite authors. J. J. Tuttle continues to trash my review on Amazon while I continue to report positively on a handicapping angle he made a special effort to point out to me. Namely play the longest shot in the short field a short field defined as seven or fewer.
Now, forgive my tardiness in reporting this bomb, but as I said, I was distracted and under the weather last week and not really keeping up with the racing world. However, racing went on without me, and on April 9th at Gulfstream Park the 2nd race saw a 67.9 to 1 shot wire the field.
Having now updated my spreadsheet the tally is as follows. For the Gulfstream 2009 season to date there have been 176 races with 7 or fewer runners. 10 of those races were won by the longest shot in the field. 10/176 = a 5.68% hit rate and more importantly, a $2 investment on each wager totaling $352.00 would've yielded $537.80 or $0.53 for every $1 wagered. With, I think, 8 racing days left in the season it seems safe to declare this a winning angle for Gulfstream Park 2009.
I have begun tracking Woodbine, since I like watching the little chiclets run around and will follow my home track of Calder when it starts up to see if this continues to be a profitable angle. So far, after 13 qualifying races at Woodbine, there have been no winners, but it's still early.
"May the horse be with you."
And speaking of my favorite authors. J. J. Tuttle continues to trash my review on Amazon while I continue to report positively on a handicapping angle he made a special effort to point out to me. Namely play the longest shot in the short field a short field defined as seven or fewer.
Now, forgive my tardiness in reporting this bomb, but as I said, I was distracted and under the weather last week and not really keeping up with the racing world. However, racing went on without me, and on April 9th at Gulfstream Park the 2nd race saw a 67.9 to 1 shot wire the field.
Having now updated my spreadsheet the tally is as follows. For the Gulfstream 2009 season to date there have been 176 races with 7 or fewer runners. 10 of those races were won by the longest shot in the field. 10/176 = a 5.68% hit rate and more importantly, a $2 investment on each wager totaling $352.00 would've yielded $537.80 or $0.53 for every $1 wagered. With, I think, 8 racing days left in the season it seems safe to declare this a winning angle for Gulfstream Park 2009.
I have begun tracking Woodbine, since I like watching the little chiclets run around and will follow my home track of Calder when it starts up to see if this continues to be a profitable angle. So far, after 13 qualifying races at Woodbine, there have been no winners, but it's still early.
"May the horse be with you."
Sunday, April 12, 2009
New Arrival
It's been an unusual lag from my last post. I've had a cold this week that has kept me feeling pretty run down. Hard to handicap when you're feeling run down. But the main deterrent to my writing is a lack of time due to a new arrival in my family. A lively 6-week old Jack Russell Terrier named Max. All puppies are very demanding on your time, and, as a breed, Jack's are particularly demanding and require a lot of personal attention. The good side of this is I am going to have to be more selective in the races I choose to handicap. The bad news is that I may have to curtail some of my track time. There are always trade-offs. Thank the gods for Twinspires.
Yesterday, I was feeling a little better, so between trips to the back yard to "go potty" I managed to handicap the 4 stakes races at Keeneland, with some good success as it turned out.
I just missed in the Grade 3 Shakertown backing Chamberlain Bridge @ 5-1. I thought 5-1 was a pretty good price on CB. I tossed his last race at Tampa figuring that he didn't care for the surface at Tampa. Florida Turf courses, especially at the 2nd tier courses such as Calder and Tampa can be much different than the type at other tracks such as the Fair Grounds Chamberlain Bridge had shipped from. Even Gulfstream's Turf course has been running like the Florida Turnpike because of the general lack of rain we've had this winter. I thought CB would bounce back after that effort and give a good account of himself which he did finishing a game 3rd behind Cannonball and the winner Heroes Reward.
The pay off race was the G2 Commonwealth Stakes. Hard to ignore Eternal Star with his last ten races all having triple digit Brisnet speed figures. Plus, has My Pal Charlie won anything of significance before or since his Superderby win last year? Yet he still seems to draw a lot of money. I always consider him a bet against feeling he is one of the those over-rated horses making his reputation off the result of one big win. Today was no different as Eternal Star brought home $5.60 for every dollar laid and triggered a 47.00 exacta for me.
I sat out the Grade 2 Jenny Wiley stakes figuring Forever Together just had too much of a class edge over the rest of the field and everyone would know it. I was right on both counts as Julian Leparoux hand rode Forever Together to a win that wasn't as close as the box score would indicate. Forever Together went off at even money which may have been a low priced overlay considering the circumstances. Still I like to look for those bombers that score so often on turf, and there just didn't seem to be any in this race.
Sad to say, I didn't have General Quarters in the Bluegrass as my bias against former claiming horses (ThisonesforPhil?) once again made him a toss out for me. Still, this is a great story and one that will have the television people gushing all Derby week long now that the General will run in the big show (where, incidentally, I will once again exhibit my former claiming horse bias and toss early from contention).
I didn't play the Arkansas Derby, but have to note after watching the replay that Papa Clem showed a new dimension in winning that race. One that could make him a serious contender for the roses on May 2.
And on the business side, I have to note that, once again, the Florida Horseman's Association and Twin Spires are fighting over simulcast revenue so that, once again, it seems if I want to place a bet on a race at Calder, I'll have to make the 10 minute schlep over to the track. I don't really mind as I enjoy the track, but there are times, like yesterday, when other aspects of life have to take priority and I'd just like to isolate a few races and play the home game. So, once again, the racing business factions feud among themselves and the customer is the one who winds up getting screwed. All the more reason for us horse players to organize and flex some of our own muscle in groups such as HANA.
HANA has for the last two weeks been running operation "Get In The Pool". Every Tuesday a smaller track is selected and members of HANA descend upon that track for a designated race to show how much influence HANA as an organization can have. I have to say, I think this is a brilliant idea. Two Tuesdays ago we descended upon Will Rogers Downs where we flooded the win pool of one of the races and increased the handle for that race on that day by 97.2%. Last week it was off to Tampa Bay where we nearly doubled (99.4%) the P3 Pool for races 6-7-8. This Tuesday the lucky recipient of our buycott money will be a Mountaineer exacta pool (race to be determined). By banding together as horseplayers, perhaps we can finally show the business that they ultimately need us, the paying customers, if they hope to remain viable. Join HANA, the price is right, free. And check the website for the next buycott race. http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/
Yesterday, I was feeling a little better, so between trips to the back yard to "go potty" I managed to handicap the 4 stakes races at Keeneland, with some good success as it turned out.
I just missed in the Grade 3 Shakertown backing Chamberlain Bridge @ 5-1. I thought 5-1 was a pretty good price on CB. I tossed his last race at Tampa figuring that he didn't care for the surface at Tampa. Florida Turf courses, especially at the 2nd tier courses such as Calder and Tampa can be much different than the type at other tracks such as the Fair Grounds Chamberlain Bridge had shipped from. Even Gulfstream's Turf course has been running like the Florida Turnpike because of the general lack of rain we've had this winter. I thought CB would bounce back after that effort and give a good account of himself which he did finishing a game 3rd behind Cannonball and the winner Heroes Reward.
The pay off race was the G2 Commonwealth Stakes. Hard to ignore Eternal Star with his last ten races all having triple digit Brisnet speed figures. Plus, has My Pal Charlie won anything of significance before or since his Superderby win last year? Yet he still seems to draw a lot of money. I always consider him a bet against feeling he is one of the those over-rated horses making his reputation off the result of one big win. Today was no different as Eternal Star brought home $5.60 for every dollar laid and triggered a 47.00 exacta for me.
I sat out the Grade 2 Jenny Wiley stakes figuring Forever Together just had too much of a class edge over the rest of the field and everyone would know it. I was right on both counts as Julian Leparoux hand rode Forever Together to a win that wasn't as close as the box score would indicate. Forever Together went off at even money which may have been a low priced overlay considering the circumstances. Still I like to look for those bombers that score so often on turf, and there just didn't seem to be any in this race.
Sad to say, I didn't have General Quarters in the Bluegrass as my bias against former claiming horses (ThisonesforPhil?) once again made him a toss out for me. Still, this is a great story and one that will have the television people gushing all Derby week long now that the General will run in the big show (where, incidentally, I will once again exhibit my former claiming horse bias and toss early from contention).
I didn't play the Arkansas Derby, but have to note after watching the replay that Papa Clem showed a new dimension in winning that race. One that could make him a serious contender for the roses on May 2.
And on the business side, I have to note that, once again, the Florida Horseman's Association and Twin Spires are fighting over simulcast revenue so that, once again, it seems if I want to place a bet on a race at Calder, I'll have to make the 10 minute schlep over to the track. I don't really mind as I enjoy the track, but there are times, like yesterday, when other aspects of life have to take priority and I'd just like to isolate a few races and play the home game. So, once again, the racing business factions feud among themselves and the customer is the one who winds up getting screwed. All the more reason for us horse players to organize and flex some of our own muscle in groups such as HANA.
HANA has for the last two weeks been running operation "Get In The Pool". Every Tuesday a smaller track is selected and members of HANA descend upon that track for a designated race to show how much influence HANA as an organization can have. I have to say, I think this is a brilliant idea. Two Tuesdays ago we descended upon Will Rogers Downs where we flooded the win pool of one of the races and increased the handle for that race on that day by 97.2%. Last week it was off to Tampa Bay where we nearly doubled (99.4%) the P3 Pool for races 6-7-8. This Tuesday the lucky recipient of our buycott money will be a Mountaineer exacta pool (race to be determined). By banding together as horseplayers, perhaps we can finally show the business that they ultimately need us, the paying customers, if they hope to remain viable. Join HANA, the price is right, free. And check the website for the next buycott race. http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/
Sunday, March 29, 2009
It's Quality Road!
Quality Road managed to hold off Dunkirk in the strectch as well as an objection from Kent Desormeaux, the rider of Theregoesjojo, and Garrett Gomez on Dunkirk proving to be the best while setting a course record in the Florida Derby.
Quality Road came into Thergoesjojo lane in while turning into the strecth forcing the latter to check and ruining any chance for Theregoesjojo who was certainly in contention up to that moment. Still Quality Road demonstrated his class and fighting spirit in coming back after being headed by Dunkirk to make it look easy at the end winning by 1 and 3/4 lengths.
After the race, according to the Daily Racing Form, Todd Pletcher had this to say,"Obviously they sped up the racetrack today," he said. "There were two or three track records set, and obviously it was to our disadvantage considering our horse's style. If I knew the track would have been like this, I'd have gone to Aqueduct next week to run in the Wood. But I thought my horse ran terrific. He's made huge strides in a short time."
Now, If Todd had been reading the Chalk Eating Weasel Report, he would have known that the track was running fast this week. I have been amazed while entering running times into my track profile this week just how much faster the track was running compared to the previous weeks.
The result the Chalk Eating Weasel was most frustated over was the DQ of Big Drama down to 2nd in favor of This One's For Phil. This DQ resulted from a steward's inquiry into the stretch run. Big Drama did bear out and give TOFP a little bump at the 1/16th pole, but this bump, in my opinion, had no bearing on the outcome of the race. Had this been a 10k claiming race at Calder, no one would've noticed. The harder, and more serious infraction came just before the finish. Here Big Drama move out again and gave TOFP a pretty good thump. However, even here they were only one jump from the finish and Big Drama had a good head in front. The race was over. The stewards saw it differently and reversed the order of finish putting TOFP on top of Big Drama. Now in the interest of full disclosure, The Chalk Eating Weasel had no dog in this fight as his exacta did not include This One's For Phil. In fact, when the inquiry sign was first posted, I was hoping TOFP might be dropped to third allowing Custom For Carlos to move up to 2nd and complete my Philless exacta. Alas that was not to be.
Nicanor had every opportunity to break his maiden yesterday, but he could not pass Glitterman's Cartel in the stretch, so I now await his eventual drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks although I doubt his connections will give up on him just yet.
However, all was not doom and gloom for the Weasel yesterday. I showed up early to claim a place to sit for the long day ahead and watch the races from Dubai. When I noticed Big City Man running in one of the early races, it was the 4th or 5th I don't remember exactly which one, against an overbet Indian Blessing, I couldn't resist putting a fiver on my old Calder Race Course homeboy who out-gamed Indian Blessing in the end to bring home a 5 to 1 payoff.
I also had the Fla. Derby Exacta. Who didn't? But a win is a win. And the G3 Appleton exacta as Kiss the Kid paid the Weasel for the 2nd time this season by finishing ahead of Artic Cry and paying $62 for a $2 investment.
Well that's about it for this entry as well as the Gulfstream meet as most of the big barns will now pull out and move their stables to up to Kentucky and other parts north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Racing will continue at Gulfstream through April 23, but the fields will consist of big stable 2nd stringers and Calder contenders. On the brighter side, the crowds will be smaller and it will be easier to get in bets.
Until next time, May The Horse be With You
Quality Road came into Thergoesjojo lane in while turning into the strecth forcing the latter to check and ruining any chance for Theregoesjojo who was certainly in contention up to that moment. Still Quality Road demonstrated his class and fighting spirit in coming back after being headed by Dunkirk to make it look easy at the end winning by 1 and 3/4 lengths.
After the race, according to the Daily Racing Form, Todd Pletcher had this to say,"Obviously they sped up the racetrack today," he said. "There were two or three track records set, and obviously it was to our disadvantage considering our horse's style. If I knew the track would have been like this, I'd have gone to Aqueduct next week to run in the Wood. But I thought my horse ran terrific. He's made huge strides in a short time."
Now, If Todd had been reading the Chalk Eating Weasel Report, he would have known that the track was running fast this week. I have been amazed while entering running times into my track profile this week just how much faster the track was running compared to the previous weeks.
The result the Chalk Eating Weasel was most frustated over was the DQ of Big Drama down to 2nd in favor of This One's For Phil. This DQ resulted from a steward's inquiry into the stretch run. Big Drama did bear out and give TOFP a little bump at the 1/16th pole, but this bump, in my opinion, had no bearing on the outcome of the race. Had this been a 10k claiming race at Calder, no one would've noticed. The harder, and more serious infraction came just before the finish. Here Big Drama move out again and gave TOFP a pretty good thump. However, even here they were only one jump from the finish and Big Drama had a good head in front. The race was over. The stewards saw it differently and reversed the order of finish putting TOFP on top of Big Drama. Now in the interest of full disclosure, The Chalk Eating Weasel had no dog in this fight as his exacta did not include This One's For Phil. In fact, when the inquiry sign was first posted, I was hoping TOFP might be dropped to third allowing Custom For Carlos to move up to 2nd and complete my Philless exacta. Alas that was not to be.
Nicanor had every opportunity to break his maiden yesterday, but he could not pass Glitterman's Cartel in the stretch, so I now await his eventual drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks although I doubt his connections will give up on him just yet.
However, all was not doom and gloom for the Weasel yesterday. I showed up early to claim a place to sit for the long day ahead and watch the races from Dubai. When I noticed Big City Man running in one of the early races, it was the 4th or 5th I don't remember exactly which one, against an overbet Indian Blessing, I couldn't resist putting a fiver on my old Calder Race Course homeboy who out-gamed Indian Blessing in the end to bring home a 5 to 1 payoff.
I also had the Fla. Derby Exacta. Who didn't? But a win is a win. And the G3 Appleton exacta as Kiss the Kid paid the Weasel for the 2nd time this season by finishing ahead of Artic Cry and paying $62 for a $2 investment.
Well that's about it for this entry as well as the Gulfstream meet as most of the big barns will now pull out and move their stables to up to Kentucky and other parts north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Racing will continue at Gulfstream through April 23, but the fields will consist of big stable 2nd stringers and Calder contenders. On the brighter side, the crowds will be smaller and it will be easier to get in bets.
Until next time, May The Horse be With You
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Handicapping Questions
Here's a poser for you. The first race Saturday at Gulfstream Park will pit 3 year old Maidens against their old brethren. Therefore the question, can 3 year olds compete with 4 year olds this time of year? Now, in case you're wondering, the older horses are spotting their juniors 8 pounds. But what to look for? Well this is going to be a time when saving all those results charts is going to help.
The first race today was at a mile and eighth for 3 and up fillies and mares. This race was won by a 3 yo with a 4yo finishing 2nd and another 3 yo up for the show.
The fifth race was a similar for the other gender. This time won by a 4 yo with a 3yo 2nd and a 5yo gelding 3rd. Hmmm. Does 8 or 9 pounds really mean that much? I may have to reexamine some of my beliefs here.
I should point out that in both of these races, the 3 year olds seemed to have the post position advantages with the inside posts being very advantageous at this distance on Gulfstreams dirt track. The fifth race was run by a horse coming out of the 7 hole which is the farthest out I will even consider for win contention at this distance, unless your name is Big Brown.
There was a 5.5 furlong sprint on the 11th for fillies and mares where the 4 yo's had their way with the younger crowd. Maybe distance is important. After all carrying all that extra weight would seem to take it's toll nearer the end than the beginning.
On March 6th a 7 furlong race for 3 and up claimers N2L was carded but there were no 3 year old takers, and the same again on March 4. So it seems that trainers will throw their 3 yo maidens out there against older maidens, but not against winners.
A limited sample, I admit. But I think I have to give the edge to the older horses on Saturday going a mile. Neither of the contending 4 year olds are breaking from an inside post, which has been a disadvantage for the GP mile.
Now for an update on the short field long price theory. Just to remind you, it has been suggested that playing the longest priced horse in a field of 7 or fewer can be a successful betting angle. In today's 4th race there was just such a winner as Storm Slew crossed the wire first paying a hefty $68.00 on a $2.00 wager for a 33-1 winner.
I have not been able to add to the count from my Calder charts due to a heavier than normal work load. I have been able to keep up with the progress at Gulfstream Park. To date for the meet this angle has won 6 times in 80 opportunities for a 7.5% hit rate. However, with an average winning mutual of 33.4-1 you would have gained a $1.15 for every dollar wagered. That's not too shabby so long as you have the patience to wait through the dry spells. The last winning wager using this angle at GP came on Feb. 22. Thirty-two wagers ago.
I still wonder if this angle would hold true for most tracks or are some tracks more amenable than others to this angle. That's why I'd really love to dig into the Calder charts, but I just haven't had the time to process the data.
Maybe I'll have to eat some crow and retract my assessment of Mr. J. J. Tuttle. But not yet.
The first race today was at a mile and eighth for 3 and up fillies and mares. This race was won by a 3 yo with a 4yo finishing 2nd and another 3 yo up for the show.
The fifth race was a similar for the other gender. This time won by a 4 yo with a 3yo 2nd and a 5yo gelding 3rd. Hmmm. Does 8 or 9 pounds really mean that much? I may have to reexamine some of my beliefs here.
I should point out that in both of these races, the 3 year olds seemed to have the post position advantages with the inside posts being very advantageous at this distance on Gulfstreams dirt track. The fifth race was run by a horse coming out of the 7 hole which is the farthest out I will even consider for win contention at this distance, unless your name is Big Brown.
There was a 5.5 furlong sprint on the 11th for fillies and mares where the 4 yo's had their way with the younger crowd. Maybe distance is important. After all carrying all that extra weight would seem to take it's toll nearer the end than the beginning.
On March 6th a 7 furlong race for 3 and up claimers N2L was carded but there were no 3 year old takers, and the same again on March 4. So it seems that trainers will throw their 3 yo maidens out there against older maidens, but not against winners.
A limited sample, I admit. But I think I have to give the edge to the older horses on Saturday going a mile. Neither of the contending 4 year olds are breaking from an inside post, which has been a disadvantage for the GP mile.
Now for an update on the short field long price theory. Just to remind you, it has been suggested that playing the longest priced horse in a field of 7 or fewer can be a successful betting angle. In today's 4th race there was just such a winner as Storm Slew crossed the wire first paying a hefty $68.00 on a $2.00 wager for a 33-1 winner.
I have not been able to add to the count from my Calder charts due to a heavier than normal work load. I have been able to keep up with the progress at Gulfstream Park. To date for the meet this angle has won 6 times in 80 opportunities for a 7.5% hit rate. However, with an average winning mutual of 33.4-1 you would have gained a $1.15 for every dollar wagered. That's not too shabby so long as you have the patience to wait through the dry spells. The last winning wager using this angle at GP came on Feb. 22. Thirty-two wagers ago.
I still wonder if this angle would hold true for most tracks or are some tracks more amenable than others to this angle. That's why I'd really love to dig into the Calder charts, but I just haven't had the time to process the data.
Maybe I'll have to eat some crow and retract my assessment of Mr. J. J. Tuttle. But not yet.
Friday, March 6, 2009
So Now What?
OK. So Magna Entertainment Corp. finally filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy protection. We all knew it would happen, and I'm sure not breaking any news. So now what? What are the intentions of MI Developments, the apparent beneficiary of Magna's embarassment. MI played hardball with Magna with regards to extending due dates on loan payments. I don't know about you, but MI Developments doesn't sound like the type of company interested in running thoroughbred racing establishments. Can you say, year round racing at Calder Race Course?
No Publichandicapper picks this week. No I'm not totally embarassed by my dismal public performance thus far. I've just been up to my eyeballs at work this week and have barely had time for tomorrow's Gulfstream program. Just in case your keeping score, last week I lost 3 bets and the Sham at Santa Anita was a pass. Although one could make the case that The Pamplemousse had the race in hand gate to wire, at least I did get the satisfaction of having Take The Points at least give the appearance that there was a race going on for a good bit of the race. Take that Valerie!
One race that I am particularly looking forward to tomorrow at GP is race 8, a 7 furlong sprint for Maiden 3 year olds. I don't particularily care for these affairs for wagering purposes, but this one does feature some interesting characters. First Nicanor, Barbaro's full brother, makes his return to the races after taking much public abuse after his disappointing and overbet debut. In fairness, Nicanor did show a brief flash of potential before throwing in the towel, but he'll have to improve markedly to make a dent in this field. I'm willing to bet that he will be a somewhat longer price than 5 to 2 this time.
I'm looking for Dubinsky to give a better effort than last out turning back from a mile in what appears to be a perfect turnback set up. Patrick Reynolds is O for Gulfstream so far this season. Is there such a thing as due in horse racing?
There is also a Million Dollar horse, Big Top, making his debut for trainer Nick Zito. This grandson of Storm Cat has been tearing up the training track and firing bullets left and right. I am interested to see if this expensive mound of muscle can do the same when there are others on the track.
I will also take a personal interest in Woodford Manhattan, owned by the purveyor of my favorite bourbon, make his racing debut. The Woodford Reserve is on me should he be the winner.
However, the one they'll all likely be chasing to the finish line is Custom For Carlos. Custom For Carlos returns after finishing 2nd and running a 93 speed figure (Not Beyer's, but however Brisnet calculates it). Par for the race is 94, so any improvement at all in his 2nd effort figures to blow the competition away. I'm pretty sure CFC will be pretty heavily favored here, but these are 3 year olds so who knows what will happen?
And another thing. Why is it that they can get a full field of 14 for a run of the mill G3, 100k turf race? By the way, Wild Promises will be back to take some more Florida stakes money back to Cali with her. Yet, they can't find more than six Florida breds, three of whom including Hal's My Hopeless, have no business running in a 75k stakes race. Nothing personal to Hal's My Hope. It's not his fault his trainer, Barry Rose, keeps running him over his head. Is the state of Florida racing such a dismal affair that they can't fill a field to run for 75k. Yesbyjimminy should be the public choice here, and Hypocrite may give him a run for the money. Green Vegas may have a very outside chance, but other than that... Nada!
Well this has been quite the rant. I hope you've had as much fun as I had.
No Publichandicapper picks this week. No I'm not totally embarassed by my dismal public performance thus far. I've just been up to my eyeballs at work this week and have barely had time for tomorrow's Gulfstream program. Just in case your keeping score, last week I lost 3 bets and the Sham at Santa Anita was a pass. Although one could make the case that The Pamplemousse had the race in hand gate to wire, at least I did get the satisfaction of having Take The Points at least give the appearance that there was a race going on for a good bit of the race. Take that Valerie!
One race that I am particularly looking forward to tomorrow at GP is race 8, a 7 furlong sprint for Maiden 3 year olds. I don't particularily care for these affairs for wagering purposes, but this one does feature some interesting characters. First Nicanor, Barbaro's full brother, makes his return to the races after taking much public abuse after his disappointing and overbet debut. In fairness, Nicanor did show a brief flash of potential before throwing in the towel, but he'll have to improve markedly to make a dent in this field. I'm willing to bet that he will be a somewhat longer price than 5 to 2 this time.
I'm looking for Dubinsky to give a better effort than last out turning back from a mile in what appears to be a perfect turnback set up. Patrick Reynolds is O for Gulfstream so far this season. Is there such a thing as due in horse racing?
There is also a Million Dollar horse, Big Top, making his debut for trainer Nick Zito. This grandson of Storm Cat has been tearing up the training track and firing bullets left and right. I am interested to see if this expensive mound of muscle can do the same when there are others on the track.
I will also take a personal interest in Woodford Manhattan, owned by the purveyor of my favorite bourbon, make his racing debut. The Woodford Reserve is on me should he be the winner.
However, the one they'll all likely be chasing to the finish line is Custom For Carlos. Custom For Carlos returns after finishing 2nd and running a 93 speed figure (Not Beyer's, but however Brisnet calculates it). Par for the race is 94, so any improvement at all in his 2nd effort figures to blow the competition away. I'm pretty sure CFC will be pretty heavily favored here, but these are 3 year olds so who knows what will happen?
And another thing. Why is it that they can get a full field of 14 for a run of the mill G3, 100k turf race? By the way, Wild Promises will be back to take some more Florida stakes money back to Cali with her. Yet, they can't find more than six Florida breds, three of whom including Hal's My Hopeless, have no business running in a 75k stakes race. Nothing personal to Hal's My Hope. It's not his fault his trainer, Barry Rose, keeps running him over his head. Is the state of Florida racing such a dismal affair that they can't fill a field to run for 75k. Yesbyjimminy should be the public choice here, and Hypocrite may give him a run for the money. Green Vegas may have a very outside chance, but other than that... Nada!
Well this has been quite the rant. I hope you've had as much fun as I had.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Hooky!
I got to play hooky from work today, sort of. Having a 1:00 dentist appointment, conveniently located near Gulfstream Park, I boogied on out of that dentist's office as soon as they would let me go and managed to get to good ol' GP in time to see the 3rd race go off.
Ah great joy under partly cloudy skies and a very pleasant 74 degrees (I'm too lazy to use superscript). Even managed to win an investment on the 9-1 Mi Carola in the 7th race making for an extra enjoyable day, indeed.
Also watched Kiaran McLaughlin sweat out the race of the heavily favored Hellvelyn who barely beat at the wire the speedy Piratesonthelake. "Never a doubt," he said.
I don't know what's going to happen to Magna Entertainment, but apparently the shopping, office, and entertainment complex located between the track and U.S. 1 is moving right along. There is a story at Miami Herald. com today that says the says the 85% completed project now has 50% of its space leased to prospective tenants. Such tenants will include Crate and Barrel (who needs crates and barrels?) and The Container Store. In addition there will be up to 10 restaurants and other boutique, specialty type stores. In addition, the developer has cut a deal with the Hallandale Beach City Commision that gives them a share of the projected increased tax revenue projected to reach up to $900k annually. That is of course, if anyone is still in business by 2010. Here's the link if your interested in the entire article. http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/922000.html
I noticed that mention of Magna Entertainment was absent. I have no particular love for MEC. I really don't know that much about them except that they are basically broke. Still, I would hate to lose the Gulfstream Winter racing season. Year round racing at Calder Race Course just won't cut it. I love the full competitive fields. It's so much easier finding overlays among the throngs of socialites and vacationers just out for a daily lark than entering the shark pit and short fields at Calder Race Course.
And speaking of short fields, during my phone conversation with JJ Tuttle (remember him?) he strongly suggested betting the longest shot in a short field. Now a short field is defined as 7 or fewer horses. He wrote about this angle in one of his books, I forget which one. Of course, he offered no data to support this thesis, but because this one is a no brainer to test, I have decided to put it to the test. So far this season, this has been a winning angle at Gulfstream with a 10% hit rate out of 50 such races. The angle shows a $175.80 profit based on a $2.00 win bet for each longest shot contender. However, after going back through all of Gulfstream's charts for the 2009 meet so far, I started on CRC. I haven't gotten very far yet, but after 22 qualifying races the angle has been shut out. Now it is possible that tracks like Calder attract a savvier clientele regarding the handicapping of horses than does Gulfstream Park. I will continue tracking Gulfstream through the remainder of the season and work my way back through all the Calder charts that I have. I don't think I have all the charts for CRC on my hard drive, but I think I can get them if I look hard enough. If anyone want's to share in this little project, I suggest you choose an upper echelon track like, say Santa Anita and a more pedestrian track such as Golden Gate Fields. As for me, I'll be tracking the upcoming Keeneland and Churchill Downs meets. I'll keep you up to date with my results. Who knows, maybe I'll owe Mr. Tuttle an apology.
See ya next time.
Ah great joy under partly cloudy skies and a very pleasant 74 degrees (I'm too lazy to use superscript). Even managed to win an investment on the 9-1 Mi Carola in the 7th race making for an extra enjoyable day, indeed.
Also watched Kiaran McLaughlin sweat out the race of the heavily favored Hellvelyn who barely beat at the wire the speedy Piratesonthelake. "Never a doubt," he said.
I don't know what's going to happen to Magna Entertainment, but apparently the shopping, office, and entertainment complex located between the track and U.S. 1 is moving right along. There is a story at Miami Herald. com today that says the says the 85% completed project now has 50% of its space leased to prospective tenants. Such tenants will include Crate and Barrel (who needs crates and barrels?) and The Container Store. In addition there will be up to 10 restaurants and other boutique, specialty type stores. In addition, the developer has cut a deal with the Hallandale Beach City Commision that gives them a share of the projected increased tax revenue projected to reach up to $900k annually. That is of course, if anyone is still in business by 2010. Here's the link if your interested in the entire article. http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/922000.html
I noticed that mention of Magna Entertainment was absent. I have no particular love for MEC. I really don't know that much about them except that they are basically broke. Still, I would hate to lose the Gulfstream Winter racing season. Year round racing at Calder Race Course just won't cut it. I love the full competitive fields. It's so much easier finding overlays among the throngs of socialites and vacationers just out for a daily lark than entering the shark pit and short fields at Calder Race Course.
And speaking of short fields, during my phone conversation with JJ Tuttle (remember him?) he strongly suggested betting the longest shot in a short field. Now a short field is defined as 7 or fewer horses. He wrote about this angle in one of his books, I forget which one. Of course, he offered no data to support this thesis, but because this one is a no brainer to test, I have decided to put it to the test. So far this season, this has been a winning angle at Gulfstream with a 10% hit rate out of 50 such races. The angle shows a $175.80 profit based on a $2.00 win bet for each longest shot contender. However, after going back through all of Gulfstream's charts for the 2009 meet so far, I started on CRC. I haven't gotten very far yet, but after 22 qualifying races the angle has been shut out. Now it is possible that tracks like Calder attract a savvier clientele regarding the handicapping of horses than does Gulfstream Park. I will continue tracking Gulfstream through the remainder of the season and work my way back through all the Calder charts that I have. I don't think I have all the charts for CRC on my hard drive, but I think I can get them if I look hard enough. If anyone want's to share in this little project, I suggest you choose an upper echelon track like, say Santa Anita and a more pedestrian track such as Golden Gate Fields. As for me, I'll be tracking the upcoming Keeneland and Churchill Downs meets. I'll keep you up to date with my results. Who knows, maybe I'll owe Mr. Tuttle an apology.
See ya next time.
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