Arlington Million

Today is Arlington Million day. We have a highly competitive group for the Arlington Million as well as the other 3 Public Handicapper races today. Arlington Park was off the turf on Friday and the going today will likely be something less than firm.

The first race to cover is the mile and a quarter G1 Secretariat Stakes for 3 year olds. The 1A entry, Driving Snow is an early scratch from the race making the job a little easier.

The 1 Cliffy's Future has never run on Turf before and without much turf pedigree to speak of, The Cliff's Edge (Gulch), appears to be misplaced here. The other easy elimination is Hoosier Kingdom who has been tearing up the Indiana State Breds but will find the opposition here a little more accomplished.

The remaining contenders seem very evenly matched, and you can make a case for each of them. However, they can't all win so we have to take a stand somewhere and this is how I see it.

The top selection is the 8 horse Reb at 5 to 1 in the morning line that price seems pretty fair if it holds up. Winner of 3 straight including the Grade 2 American Derby last out. Julien Leparoux gets the call on this son of Stormy Atlantic, and we'll be looking for him to make a late run.

The second choice ships over off a lackluster Group 1 effort at Longchamp at a Mile and a half. The shorter distance should be to the liking of the number 9 Black Bear Island winner of a Group 2 contest back in may. Additionally, Black Bear Island should feel right at home on a soggy turf course.

The third choice is a horse I liked quite a bit earlier in the year, the 7 horse Take The Points. Although yet to show a win on the turf, the surface switch seems to have been a wake up call for the Pletcher trainee. The comment line says Take The Points hung in finishing 3rd to Battle of Hastings in the Virginia Derby. I think the rider change to Kent Desormeaux may be the difference which finally puts this underachiever over the top.

The fourth choice is the 10 horse Giant Oak. Giant Oak is the horse for course here with 2 wins in 3 tries at Arlington Park. Giant Oak had a troubled trip as the favorite last out and figures to improve position in this race with a better trip.

I think you can also make some sort of case for Proceed Bee, Laureate Conductor, Quite A Handful, and Oil Man. So if you wanted to go in that direction I wouldn't blame you.

The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
8 Reb /3-1/ 9-2
9 Black Bear Island/ 4-1 /6-1
7 Take The Points /5-1/ 8-1
10 Giant Oak/ 6-1 /9-1

The next race is the 1 and 3/16 Mile G1 Beverly D. Stakes for Fillies and Mares for 3 and older.

For this race I again go to the entry ridden by Julien Leparoux for the top choice. No I don't have a particular thing for Leparoux. I do, along with Kent Desormeaux, consider him to be among the best turf riders in North America. Something about those Acadians. In this case, I do consider the #2 Pure Clan to be the best horse in the race. Pure Clan is a multiple graded stakes winner including last years American Oaks and Leparoux always seems to get her best out of her. She has 5 wins in 8 tries over grass 2 wins in 3 attempts at the distance and is 1 for 1 over the Arlington course.

The next selection is the foreign shipper #1 Alnadana has been showing very strong recent form in some classy Group 2 and 3 races in France and England including a win last out in the Group 3 Prix Messidor. She won that race by 3 lengths and, according to the Racing Post, http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/alnadana-maisons-laffitte-france-alnadana-dominates-prix-messidor/610071/, the margin of victory could have been more.

The next selection is the #7 Dynaforce ridden by, are you ready, Kent Desormeaux. At 10-1 in the morning line, Dynaforce may be the over looked horse in the race if the ML is accurate. Dynaforce showed a nice move forward in her last race from the previous and any further improvement would put her right into contention in this spot.

For the 4th selection, I was leaning towards the 6 Tizaqueena until I learned that Alnadana is likely to contest her for the lead. Not wanting to speedy types as contenders on grass I moved to the California shipper #4 Black Mamba ridden by Garrett Gomez. If this multiple graded stakes winner can duplicate her last effort she should be a factor at the end.

The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
2 Pure Clan /3-1 /9-2
1 Alnadana/ 4-1/ 6-1
7 Dynaforce /4-1/ 6-1
4 Black Mamba /6-1 /9-1

The Main Event today is, of course, The Arlington Million Stakes-G1 1 and 1/4 miles for 3 yo and up

For this race the Weasel is going to go out on a limb and make, oh let's see, Ummm #6 Gio Ponti the favorite. Gio Ponti has won 3 consecutive G1 races making a 5 wide move last out to take the Man O War last out. Ramon Dominquez gets the call today. Ramon cost me a lot of money in, I think it was the 3rd race, last Saturday at Saratoga with his aggressive ride that the stewards chose to forgive. Maybe this week I'll have him on my side, but I doubt it.

#2 Presious Passion is another hot horse who has been toying with the competition at Monmouth. Today PP will have to survive the challenge from "cheap" speed in the form of Recapturetheglory. It looks like a mismatch, but if he can stay with PP for a 1/2, maybe it will take enough out of the front running gelding to give the rest a chance.

Next is the crowd favorite #1 Einstein who never runs a bad race and returns to his favorite surface. Einstein has never won the Million. I for one will be pulling for him to put this notch in his belt and may even bet on it if the price is right.

This field is so deep that G1 winner #5 Mr. Sidney is 10/1 in the morning line. The distance may not be his best, but is he stays at 10/1 or better this winner of 5 out of 7 on the grass would certainly be worth a look.

The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
6 Gio Ponti /2-1 /3-1
2 Presious Passion/ 9-2/ 7-1
1 Einstein /5-1/ 8-1
5 Mr. Sidney /6-1/ 9-1

Finally we move over to Saratoga, where your's truly will be in attendance this coming Friday and Saturday, for the G1 Whitney Hdcp.

#7 Commentator is the sentimental and ML Favorite, but he starts from the disadvantageous outside post, has the naturally speedy Tizway to the inside to contend with, and a much stronger field than the statebreds he beat up on last out. Commentator will have three accomplished closers chasing after him down the stretch.

The numero uno contender here is #4 Macho Again. I made the mistake of discounting Macho Again in the last race he was in that I handicapped the G1 Stephen Foster Hdcp. Having been burned once, I won't ignore him this time out. Doesn't mean I will play him, but I won't be surprised this time out

Next up will be the star-crossed #2 Asiatic Boy with 2 second place finishes in the states. Asiatic Boy will benefit from an inside post position and I expect he will be there at the end again.

The 3rd choice will be #6 Dry Martini. The 6yo gelding has been thriving since moving to Barclay Tagg's barn. Like the previous two, the pace set up should be great for him. I think, realistically, any of the three can win this race. Whoever gets the trip wins, its that close.

The 4th pick is #3 Bullsbay. Throw out his last effort over the plastic surface. Probably a notch below the top 3 picks, keep in your trifecta at the very least.

The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds/ Overlay (play odds)
4 Macho Again /7-2 /5-1
2 Asiatic Boy/ 7-2/ 5-1
6 Dry Martini /7-2/ 5-1
3 Bullsbay /6-1 /9-1

Those are the picks for the day. Hope you find them useful. Good luck

This just in. The Weasel has learned that the turf at Arlington has been rated yielding and that Recapturetheglory has been scratched from the Arlington Million. In my opinion, this tilts the pace scenario to the benefit of Pressious Passion. However we will have to watch the earlier races to see how speed holds up over the course. The odds line below reflects my change of opinion on the race.

The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
6 Gio Ponti/ 3-1/ 9-2
2 Presious Passion /3-1 /9-2
1 Einstein/ 5-1/ 8-1
5 Mr. Sidney/ 6-1 /9-1

So Now What?

OK. So Magna Entertainment Corp. finally filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy protection. We all knew it would happen, and I'm sure not breaking any news. So now what? What are the intentions of MI Developments, the apparent beneficiary of Magna's embarassment. MI played hardball with Magna with regards to extending due dates on loan payments. I don't know about you, but MI Developments doesn't sound like the type of company interested in running thoroughbred racing establishments. Can you say, year round racing at Calder Race Course?

No Publichandicapper picks this week. No I'm not totally embarassed by my dismal public performance thus far. I've just been up to my eyeballs at work this week and have barely had time for tomorrow's Gulfstream program. Just in case your keeping score, last week I lost 3 bets and the Sham at Santa Anita was a pass. Although one could make the case that The Pamplemousse had the race in hand gate to wire, at least I did get the satisfaction of having Take The Points at least give the appearance that there was a race going on for a good bit of the race. Take that Valerie!

One race that I am particularly looking forward to tomorrow at GP is race 8, a 7 furlong sprint for Maiden 3 year olds. I don't particularily care for these affairs for wagering purposes, but this one does feature some interesting characters. First Nicanor, Barbaro's full brother, makes his return to the races after taking much public abuse after his disappointing and overbet debut. In fairness, Nicanor did show a brief flash of potential before throwing in the towel, but he'll have to improve markedly to make a dent in this field. I'm willing to bet that he will be a somewhat longer price than 5 to 2 this time.

I'm looking for Dubinsky to give a better effort than last out turning back from a mile in what appears to be a perfect turnback set up. Patrick Reynolds is O for Gulfstream so far this season. Is there such a thing as due in horse racing?

There is also a Million Dollar horse, Big Top, making his debut for trainer Nick Zito. This grandson of Storm Cat has been tearing up the training track and firing bullets left and right. I am interested to see if this expensive mound of muscle can do the same when there are others on the track.

I will also take a personal interest in Woodford Manhattan, owned by the purveyor of my favorite bourbon, make his racing debut. The Woodford Reserve is on me should he be the winner.

However, the one they'll all likely be chasing to the finish line is Custom For Carlos. Custom For Carlos returns after finishing 2nd and running a 93 speed figure (Not Beyer's, but however Brisnet calculates it). Par for the race is 94, so any improvement at all in his 2nd effort figures to blow the competition away. I'm pretty sure CFC will be pretty heavily favored here, but these are 3 year olds so who knows what will happen?

And another thing. Why is it that they can get a full field of 14 for a run of the mill G3, 100k turf race? By the way, Wild Promises will be back to take some more Florida stakes money back to Cali with her. Yet, they can't find more than six Florida breds, three of whom including Hal's My Hopeless, have no business running in a 75k stakes race. Nothing personal to Hal's My Hope. It's not his fault his trainer, Barry Rose, keeps running him over his head. Is the state of Florida racing such a dismal affair that they can't fill a field to run for 75k. Yesbyjimminy should be the public choice here, and Hypocrite may give him a run for the money. Green Vegas may have a very outside chance, but other than that... Nada!

Well this has been quite the rant. I hope you've had as much fun as I had.

Public Handicapper February 28th

Once again your intrepid handicapper is back with another collection of SWAG's for the publichandicapper.com contest.

This week we have two races each from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. One race at each is on the grass for older horses and the 2nd races are on the main track with Derby implications for 3 year olds.

Todd Pletcher's Take The Points was entered in both the Fountain of Youth and the Sham. However, Pletcher is opting for softer competition (IMHO) the Sham at SA.

So now for the Selections:

Race 8 at GP is the 150k Canadian Turf Hdcp.

I should point out right off the bat, for any who might be thinking of considering Delightful Kiss in this race that he, by the admission of his trainer in the DRF http://www.drf.com/news/article/101921.html, is not well intended for this race. Trainer Pete Anderson is considering this as a prep race for Dubai. Of course, he goes on to say something like, to paraphrase Drago from I think it is Rocky 4, if he wins he wins. But my experience has been, if a trainer comes out and tells you he's using a race as a prep race, believe him. Therefore, I don't even consider Delightful Kiss to be a win contender in this race. If we can throw out DK, at least from the win position, then that could make this a very nice betting race for those of us who are better read than others. That being said, here are my picks for the Canadian Turf Hdcp.


#8 Just As Well
3-1
9-2
#7 Vanquisher
7-2
5-1
#10 Bujagali
9-2
7-1
#2 Sporting Art
6-1
9-1

#8 Overachieved last out, Leparoux stays on. #7 May not belong here but showed big closing kick in winning last. #10 is the only committed pure front runner in the race. We have not had much rain this winter and speed is starting to hold up well on the turf course. Could be worth a shot at a price. #2 comes off a long layoff, but KD took the mount and Christophe Clemente is always dangerous on turf.

Next up is the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes to be run at a mile


#9 Capt. Candyman Can
2-1
3-1
#7 Beethoven
9-2
7-1
#3 Notonthesamepage
5-1
8-1
#2 Theregoesjojo
6-1
9-1

#9 has the tactical ability to deal with whatever pace scenario thrown at him. Watch a replay of the Hutcheson where he stalks the pace setters, throttles down to move to the outside, and then reaccelerates to win more easily that the lenghts beaten indicates. #7 got hung 4 wide into the first turn from the deadly outside post at the 1 1/8 Holy Bull. Made a good move to get into contention before running out of gas after running further than any other contender down stretch. #3 May have the early run to avoid the pitfalls of coming out of the 1M chute from an inside post, but there is a lot of speed in this race so he'll need a perfect trip.#2 had plenty left in the tank while winning last out. Not as accomplished as some others here but should be coming at the end.

Over at the other coast. No, not Tampa. The OTHER coast

The 100k Crystal Water Handicap for older California Bredsa


#6 Lucky J H
2-1
3-1
#4 Liberian Freighter
3-1
9-2
#5 Bold Cheiftan
7-2
5-1



#6 Shows a versatile running style and is capable of adjusting to the existing pace condition of the race. Comes 3rd off layoff for Carla Gaines and I can excuse last effort on an off Turf Course #4 should have the controlling speed in a relatively light field, seems to make it a habit of fading near the end but could go wire to wire if allowed to relax early #5 would probably beat this field for fun if well intended in first race after a 4 month hiatus. Might win any way, but I'd need a price for this race.

And last but not least.

The G3 Sham


P# 9th Race

Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#12 Take The Points
3-2
5-2
#3 The Pamplemousse
3-2
5-2






I really see this as a two horse race. The Pamplemousse had it all his own way getting to control the pace in a short field for the G3 San Rafael. Therefore the strength of that performance may be overrated. Take The Points was also entered in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but perhaps Pletcher sees some easy pickin's in moving out west instead. Other than these two, it is really hard to make a case for anyone else in the race from my POV.