Breeders' Cup Eve

Twas the day before the cup,
and all through the house
the Weasel was searching
for some picks to serve up.

As promised, I have returned to you on the eve of the Breeders' Cup and am prepared to give you my selections for this weekends championship races.

One thing is for sure, there is no shortage of opinions on these races. If you are interested in a consensus of Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance choices then follow this link http://www.tbablogs.com/BCPicks.php .

Due to the sheer number of races, commentary will be minimal to non-existant. If you want reasons, there are plenty willing to offer reasons for their opinions.

As a reminder, since I haven't mentioned this in a while, the top pick will not necessarily be the one to play. We want to play overlays. Many times this will mean playing against the top pick. I have provided my own odds levels for each selection. The first odds are what I consider to be fair odds. The second set will be the minimum odds you need to play the selection.

Friday's Races

The Breeders' Cup Marathon

#6 Mastery : 2/1---3/1
#5 Father Time: 9/2---7/1
#3 Nite Light: 5/1---8/1
#4 Cloudy's Knight: 6/1---9/1

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
#10 Tapitsfly: 3/1---9/2
#7 House of Grace: 7/2---5/1
#1 Potosina: 9/2---7/1
#4 Rose Catherine 5/1---8/1

The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

#3 Blind Luck: 2/1---3/1
#10 Negligee: 9/2---7/1
#7 Devil May Care: 5/1---8/1
#8 She Be Wild: 6/1---9/1

The Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf

#2 Forever Together: 3/1---9/2
#4 Magical Fantasy: 7/2---5/1
#6 Midday: 9/2---7/1
#3 Rutherienne: 5/1---8/1

The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

#7 Informed Decision: 5/2---4/1
#9 Ventura: 3/1---9/2
#2 Sara Louise: 6/1---9/1
#8 Seventh Street: 6/1---9/1

The Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic

#7 Music Note: 2/1---3/1
#1 Careless Jewel: 2/1---3/1
#2 Life Is Sweet: 6/1---9/1

Saturday's Races

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

#4 Pounced: 2/1---3/1
#3 Codoy: 9/2---7/1
#11 Interactif: 5/1---8/1
#10 Becky's Kitten: 6/1---9/1

The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

#7 Gotta Have Her: 3/1---9/2
#6 Cannonball: 7/2---5/1
#3 California Flag: 9/2---7/1
#10 Canadian Ballet: 5/1---8/1

The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint

#8 Captain Candyman Can: 7/2---5/1
#1 Zensational: 7/2---5/1
#3 Fatal Bullet: 9/2---7/1
#5 Gayego: 9/2--- 7/1

The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile

#6 Pulsion: 3/1---9/2
#4 Noble's Promise: 7/2---5/1
#8 Esdendereya: 9/2---7/1
#9 Aikenite: 6/1---9/1

The TVG Breeders' Cup Mile

#4 Delegator: 2/1---3/1
#1 Court Vision: 9/2---7/1
#3 Cowboy Cal: 5/1---7/1
#2 Whatsthescript: 6/1---9/1

The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

#1 Mastercraftman: 2/1---3/1
#4 Bullsbay: 9/2---7/1
#2 Furthest Land: 5/1---8/1
#5 Neko Bay: 6/1---9/1

The Emirate Airlines Breeders' Cup Turf

#6 Presious Passion: 3/1---9/2
#2 Conduit: 7/2---5/1
#5 Dar Re Mi: 9/2---7/1
#7 Spanish Moon: 5/1---8/1

The Breeders' Cup Classic

#2 Colonel John: 3/1---9/2
#8 Einstein: 7/2---5/1
#4 Zenyatta: 4/1---6/1
#7 Gio Ponti: 6/1---9/1

Hey! Check out my full analysis of Saturday's race 10 from Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. Also you will find a brief analysis of the Ladies Classic and the Classic. Note, I change my mind on the Classic after I had sent in my picks to Case the Race. I have heard really good things about Rip Van Winkle. Then I hear is very washed out after an easy gallop at Santa Anita and has a chronic foot problem to boot. I don't know how the surface change will affect his foot. I will take a good look at him in the post parade, at least as good as I am able. If I like what I see, I may change my mind again.

Good Luck

Public Handicapper February 28th

Once again your intrepid handicapper is back with another collection of SWAG's for the publichandicapper.com contest.

This week we have two races each from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. One race at each is on the grass for older horses and the 2nd races are on the main track with Derby implications for 3 year olds.

Todd Pletcher's Take The Points was entered in both the Fountain of Youth and the Sham. However, Pletcher is opting for softer competition (IMHO) the Sham at SA.

So now for the Selections:

Race 8 at GP is the 150k Canadian Turf Hdcp.

I should point out right off the bat, for any who might be thinking of considering Delightful Kiss in this race that he, by the admission of his trainer in the DRF http://www.drf.com/news/article/101921.html, is not well intended for this race. Trainer Pete Anderson is considering this as a prep race for Dubai. Of course, he goes on to say something like, to paraphrase Drago from I think it is Rocky 4, if he wins he wins. But my experience has been, if a trainer comes out and tells you he's using a race as a prep race, believe him. Therefore, I don't even consider Delightful Kiss to be a win contender in this race. If we can throw out DK, at least from the win position, then that could make this a very nice betting race for those of us who are better read than others. That being said, here are my picks for the Canadian Turf Hdcp.


#8 Just As Well
3-1
9-2
#7 Vanquisher
7-2
5-1
#10 Bujagali
9-2
7-1
#2 Sporting Art
6-1
9-1

#8 Overachieved last out, Leparoux stays on. #7 May not belong here but showed big closing kick in winning last. #10 is the only committed pure front runner in the race. We have not had much rain this winter and speed is starting to hold up well on the turf course. Could be worth a shot at a price. #2 comes off a long layoff, but KD took the mount and Christophe Clemente is always dangerous on turf.

Next up is the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes to be run at a mile


#9 Capt. Candyman Can
2-1
3-1
#7 Beethoven
9-2
7-1
#3 Notonthesamepage
5-1
8-1
#2 Theregoesjojo
6-1
9-1

#9 has the tactical ability to deal with whatever pace scenario thrown at him. Watch a replay of the Hutcheson where he stalks the pace setters, throttles down to move to the outside, and then reaccelerates to win more easily that the lenghts beaten indicates. #7 got hung 4 wide into the first turn from the deadly outside post at the 1 1/8 Holy Bull. Made a good move to get into contention before running out of gas after running further than any other contender down stretch. #3 May have the early run to avoid the pitfalls of coming out of the 1M chute from an inside post, but there is a lot of speed in this race so he'll need a perfect trip.#2 had plenty left in the tank while winning last out. Not as accomplished as some others here but should be coming at the end.

Over at the other coast. No, not Tampa. The OTHER coast

The 100k Crystal Water Handicap for older California Bredsa


#6 Lucky J H
2-1
3-1
#4 Liberian Freighter
3-1
9-2
#5 Bold Cheiftan
7-2
5-1



#6 Shows a versatile running style and is capable of adjusting to the existing pace condition of the race. Comes 3rd off layoff for Carla Gaines and I can excuse last effort on an off Turf Course #4 should have the controlling speed in a relatively light field, seems to make it a habit of fading near the end but could go wire to wire if allowed to relax early #5 would probably beat this field for fun if well intended in first race after a 4 month hiatus. Might win any way, but I'd need a price for this race.

And last but not least.

The G3 Sham


P# 9th Race

Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#12 Take The Points
3-2
5-2
#3 The Pamplemousse
3-2
5-2






I really see this as a two horse race. The Pamplemousse had it all his own way getting to control the pace in a short field for the G3 San Rafael. Therefore the strength of that performance may be overrated. Take The Points was also entered in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but perhaps Pletcher sees some easy pickin's in moving out west instead. Other than these two, it is really hard to make a case for anyone else in the race from my POV.