Today is probably the last day for serious Kentucky Derby contenders and wannabes to prep for what remains the most important race for 3 year olds in North America if not the world.
I really wish I had some stunning upsets to predict, but I just can't see it happening. But the good news is, Brisnet's The Wizard would be charging you hard earned money for the same picks you will likely get here for free.
By the way, speaking of free. The information I used to make these selections was obtained from the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance page at http://www.tbablogs.com/. Be sure to pay them a visit. There are many great horse bloggers there and plenty of racing information and selections besides my own. Check them out
The first race is actually a prep for the Kentucky Oaks featuring 3 graduates from the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies. The G1 Ashland Stakes.
I think Beautician coming 2nd off the layoff for Kenneth McPeek out of the G3 Honeybee looks to be a strong contender after finishing 2nd in the aforementioned race. The comment line has Beautician boxed in at the 1/4 pole in the Honeybee. I look for her to move forward under Robby Albarado for this race.
However, Beautician will have to overcome the winner of the Juvenile Fillies, She Be Wild, if she wants to wear the Ashland crown. She Be Wild is trained by Wayne Catalano who has done just fine after getting out from under the thumb of Frank Calabrese. In fact, Catalano has won with 27% of last 37 graded stakes entries and is 37% with the beaten favorite the last 231 times this situation has occurred. With statistics like these and a strong horse under Jose Lezcano, there is no way to count She Be Wild out of the running.
She Be Wild's last race was the G2 Forward Gal on Jan. 31 at Gulfstream where she basically pulled a merry-go-round job in finishing 5th of 11. I'm sure Catalano will be looking for more this time around.
The other BC Filly Juvie grad is Negligee. Coming off a 4 month layoff I'm expecting this may be a conditioner and a true prep for the Oaks for Negligee. However, trainer Terranova is 16% off layoffs of greater than 90 days with a +ROI. Still I would look elsewhere here.
One horse that peeked my interest here as a possible long shot play is Protesting trained by Shug McGaughey. She did not show much in two allowance efforts at Gulfstream but the 95 Brisnet speed figure could but her right in the thick of it if she can duplicate or improve off that race and she does have win over the surface.
Still, I'm not going out on a limb here and will stick with and probably not play the chalk with
4 Beautician
5 She Be Wild
3 Negligee
The G3 Illinois Derby is easily the least prestigious of the 3 Derby preps the other two being the Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby, but it may be the most interesting of the three.
On a track that favors speed and the rail and a field which is generally lacking in flashy early speed, American Lion could not have drawn better breaking from the rail gate. But...I am looking for the combo of Prado and Dutrow on board the stalker Yawanna Twist to be first under the wire. A conviction which will grow even stronger should Awesome Act flatter the top choice 30 minutes earlier in the Wood.
Yawanna Twist has the best figures of all contenders. The fact is his worst lifetime figure is equal to the best of any other in the race excepting Backtalk. Twisty has the tactical ability to stay close to American Lion and possibly Boulder Creek.
American Lion has to be at least the 2nd choice with all the favoring factors the Weasel see's for him in this race. I expect to see him on the lead early, so he won't have to worry about having dirt kicked in his face.
Turf Melody will have to move forward out of the Gotham to beat Gotham runner up Yawanna Twist, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. Turf Melody looks to be a horse on the improve, and 3 year olds can make quantum leaps forward this time of year. You might be able to get a square price on this contender
Backtalk has the look of one of those horses who is fierce in the morning and a asleep when the money is on the line. He did win his last, but notice his figures decline as the distance increases. The Weasel would be surprised to see this one in the Winner's Circle.
4. Yawanna Twist
1. American Lion
5. Turf Melody
It is easy to look at the Wood and think it is a 2 horse race between Eskendereya and Awesome Act. But Ramon Dominquez has been red hot at the Big A and Schoolyard Dreams may have what it takes and the motivation to pull off the upset for trainer Derek Ryan.
Still, Eskendereya dominated the Fountain of Youth field and should have no problem stalking the cheap speed in the race. Gotham winner Awesome Act will bring up the rear early but will have plenty of pace to run at late. Look for Awesome Act to be chasing down either Eskendereya or Schoolyard Dreams in the stretch with one set of backers praying for the wire while the other set encourages Julien Leparoux to get into that 2 horse.
I have to mention Jackson Bend. He's a small horse with a large heart. I just don't think he can get the distance at this level and would like to see him returned to sprinting once the Derby dreams are finally dashed. The one classic race he may do well in is the Preakness due to the tight turns which can favor a smaller horse.
3. Eskendereya
2. Awesome Act
4. Schoolyard Dreams
At last there is the Santa Anita Derby. Lookin At Lucky is the obvious favorite, his race in the Rebel at Oaklawn was nothing short of amazing. If you missed it, find a replay to watch and you'll understand why Lucky is a top Derby contender. But listening to Bob Baffert in a recent interview, the Weasel has to wonder how well intentioned Lucky is for this race. Bob was all about how the goal was to get Lucky through the race in one piece and set up for the big prize being the KY Derby, of course.
This makes The Weasel want to take a shot at throwing Lucky out of the Winner's Circle and look for alternatives who may want it more here.
If we are going to upset Lucky, The Weasel actually likes two Cali breds to perform the feat. Up until the San Felipe, Caracortado was unbeaten in his career. Sidney's Candy won the race wire to wire. The comment line says Sidney was rated, meaning no pressure on the lead. This time may be different. Who's Up, to Sidney's inside has some early foot and could make Sidney work a little harder for that lead this time around.
Alphie's Bet made a quantum leap forward to win the G3 Sham last out and is another that would benefit from a contentious early pace. So here is the way The Weasel see's this one.
10 Alphie's Bet
6 Caracortado
4 Sidney's Candy
Lookin at Lucky will be there somewhere, maybe even on top. Don't be a chalk eating weasel.
The Weasel plans to watch these races at home courtesy of TVG, HRTV or Twinspires TV if I have to. Tomorrow will be a day at the races, grazing on the excellent buffet of the Ten Palms Restaurant at Gulfstream Park with the beautiful Mrs. Weasel.
Speaking of GP. Look for these jockeys to get hot now that the big guns have moved north. Paco Lopez, Joe Bravo (as long as he stays), Manoel Cruz, Luis Saez, Jose Lezcano, and, of course, Elvis Trujillo.
I'm Off!
Showing posts with label Gulfstream Park. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gulfstream Park. Show all posts
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Monday, March 29, 2010
I'm Back
So sorry to have been away so long. Could make up alot of excuses and they'd all be true. The simple fact is that the muse had left me. Now I'm feeling more a-mused.
As much as I like to complain about how Gulfstream Park management does everything on the cheap, and they do, I guess I have to give them a little credit for Florida Derby day.
Gulfsteam Park was slammed. They do not give attendance or handle figures, but in speaking with a worker at the track I learned the crowd was estimated to be about 23,000. Betting lines were 10 minutes long. I was told that the park had installed an extral 150 betting machines for the occassion. Again, trying to do it on the cheap. Really, how many people who go to the track once or twice a year for the big days go anywhere near the betting machines?
I prefer the machines, but on days like Fl. Derby day, there's no way. It will always be my luck to wind up behind some 0.10 cent super player entering every possible combo one at a time. Of course, most times that will be my good luck.
To the track's credit they did extend the time between races once they realized the size of the crowd which had showed up on that perfect South Florida day. One last thing I learned from the track worker is that there are plans to build a parking garage and extend the grandstand down the north side of the main building all the way down to the beginning of the stretch. It won't be this year or the next, but maybe in a couple of years, we can once again contemplate the possibility of the Breeder's Cup returning to Florida.
Had the muse had struck me sooner, my once loyal readers would've known my top pick for the race was the 29-1 Pleasant Prince. Yes it is true. Talk about bad beats! I figured the race had alot of early speed in it with most of it to the outside and didn't set up well for the favorite, Rule. I looked to the inside for likely horses to come from off the pace and settled on the Wesley Ward trained Pleasant Prince. Ice Box was certainly a contender as an off the pace contender, but it is well known that the outside posts don't do well at the 9 furlong distance. The 12 hole is nearly impossible except for Big Brown. Unfortunately for me, Ice Box was breaking from the 8th gate.
I have watched that race over and over and am still not convinced I lost. I'm still looking for the photo if anyone can direct me. That is the only way I will be convinced.
I have read that we (TBA that is) are now associating ourselves with Thorofan. This is a move the Weasel definitely is in favor of being a charter member of the Thorofan organization. So far, I can't see how my dues to Thorofan have done anything than help finance cocktail parties for the Saratoga chapter, but hope springs eternal that something good will eventually come out the organization.
The Horseplayer's Association of North America seems to have lost some momentum this year although I do remember they are having a day at Keeneland for members to assemble. If they send me another E-Mail telling me when it is, I'll let you know. That is an organization the Weasel certainly endorses. I hope the founders have not burned out. They tried very hard to make a difference last year. But you know, organizing horse player has got to be alot like herding cats.
That's it for now. Hopefully, I'll get some momentum of my own going and find another 18-1 Bullsbay or 29-1 Pleasant Prince for you to lay some dough on and cheer for.
I'm Off
As much as I like to complain about how Gulfstream Park management does everything on the cheap, and they do, I guess I have to give them a little credit for Florida Derby day.
Gulfsteam Park was slammed. They do not give attendance or handle figures, but in speaking with a worker at the track I learned the crowd was estimated to be about 23,000. Betting lines were 10 minutes long. I was told that the park had installed an extral 150 betting machines for the occassion. Again, trying to do it on the cheap. Really, how many people who go to the track once or twice a year for the big days go anywhere near the betting machines?
I prefer the machines, but on days like Fl. Derby day, there's no way. It will always be my luck to wind up behind some 0.10 cent super player entering every possible combo one at a time. Of course, most times that will be my good luck.
To the track's credit they did extend the time between races once they realized the size of the crowd which had showed up on that perfect South Florida day. One last thing I learned from the track worker is that there are plans to build a parking garage and extend the grandstand down the north side of the main building all the way down to the beginning of the stretch. It won't be this year or the next, but maybe in a couple of years, we can once again contemplate the possibility of the Breeder's Cup returning to Florida.
Had the muse had struck me sooner, my once loyal readers would've known my top pick for the race was the 29-1 Pleasant Prince. Yes it is true. Talk about bad beats! I figured the race had alot of early speed in it with most of it to the outside and didn't set up well for the favorite, Rule. I looked to the inside for likely horses to come from off the pace and settled on the Wesley Ward trained Pleasant Prince. Ice Box was certainly a contender as an off the pace contender, but it is well known that the outside posts don't do well at the 9 furlong distance. The 12 hole is nearly impossible except for Big Brown. Unfortunately for me, Ice Box was breaking from the 8th gate.
I have watched that race over and over and am still not convinced I lost. I'm still looking for the photo if anyone can direct me. That is the only way I will be convinced.
I have read that we (TBA that is) are now associating ourselves with Thorofan. This is a move the Weasel definitely is in favor of being a charter member of the Thorofan organization. So far, I can't see how my dues to Thorofan have done anything than help finance cocktail parties for the Saratoga chapter, but hope springs eternal that something good will eventually come out the organization.
The Horseplayer's Association of North America seems to have lost some momentum this year although I do remember they are having a day at Keeneland for members to assemble. If they send me another E-Mail telling me when it is, I'll let you know. That is an organization the Weasel certainly endorses. I hope the founders have not burned out. They tried very hard to make a difference last year. But you know, organizing horse player has got to be alot like herding cats.
That's it for now. Hopefully, I'll get some momentum of my own going and find another 18-1 Bullsbay or 29-1 Pleasant Prince for you to lay some dough on and cheer for.
I'm Off
Friday, April 17, 2009
Playing the Home Game
You might've already noticed a change in the Scoreboard to the immediate left. This is due to the fact that I expect to be playing the home game more often for the foreseeable future. The new arrival in my house, now officially named Max (Ruffian was rejected), is very demanding and it is difficult to get much done with a six week old puppy requiring constant attention. Because of this, I think it would be very unfair of me to abandon my darling wife (you thought I was going to say puppy, didn't you?). Therefore my weekly forays to the local racing facilities will be somewhat curtailed at least until the puppy can be trusted to fend for himself a little better in a few months or years or til death do us part.
I started out using the board to follow my Public Handicapper picks, but that is not really an accurate measure of what I'm doing. I'm going to say this knowing full well all the snarky comments I an leaving myself open to. My handicapping methodology is not so much about picking the winner. I prefer to pick losers! Just kidding ;-D Actually, I prefer to pick contenders and then make a play or not based on my opinion of fair odds. Because of that the few wagers I put in there were not necessarily real wagers. That discouraged me and I found it to be pointless. And since I do most of my wagering at the track, it didn't really seem correct to come back after the fact and put up numbers.
Therefore, I removed the phony wagers and the ones you see there now are ones I made and posted in real time. For tomorrow, I'm going to look at a few races from Gulfstream and Keeneland and maybe even head up to Woodbine for a race. Tune in occassionally and you'll be able to see what the weasel is up to in real time.
Oh, and don't worry about that 34% ROI. It won't last very long. I'll be satified just to keep it on the positive side. I found a couple of playable races at Golden Gate for this afternoon. Got the exacta in race two and a dead heat in race 6 turned my 5-2 into 4 -5. So tune in early and tune in often. See what I'm playing then do something else, you can't lose that way.
May the horse be with you
I started out using the board to follow my Public Handicapper picks, but that is not really an accurate measure of what I'm doing. I'm going to say this knowing full well all the snarky comments I an leaving myself open to. My handicapping methodology is not so much about picking the winner. I prefer to pick losers! Just kidding ;-D Actually, I prefer to pick contenders and then make a play or not based on my opinion of fair odds. Because of that the few wagers I put in there were not necessarily real wagers. That discouraged me and I found it to be pointless. And since I do most of my wagering at the track, it didn't really seem correct to come back after the fact and put up numbers.
Therefore, I removed the phony wagers and the ones you see there now are ones I made and posted in real time. For tomorrow, I'm going to look at a few races from Gulfstream and Keeneland and maybe even head up to Woodbine for a race. Tune in occassionally and you'll be able to see what the weasel is up to in real time.
Oh, and don't worry about that 34% ROI. It won't last very long. I'll be satified just to keep it on the positive side. I found a couple of playable races at Golden Gate for this afternoon. Got the exacta in race two and a dead heat in race 6 turned my 5-2 into 4 -5. So tune in early and tune in often. See what I'm playing then do something else, you can't lose that way.
May the horse be with you
Monday, April 13, 2009
Mountaineer Race 3: Get In the Pool
The HANA get in the pool race for tomorrow is race 3, a 5k Claimer for non-winners of 2 lifetime. I think Mark Cramer would call this a lesser of evils race, but there could be some overlap into the contentious race category as the field certainly seems evenly matched. Remember the idea is to flood the exacta pool in this race so put your thinking caps on.
And speaking of my favorite authors. J. J. Tuttle continues to trash my review on Amazon while I continue to report positively on a handicapping angle he made a special effort to point out to me. Namely play the longest shot in the short field a short field defined as seven or fewer.
Now, forgive my tardiness in reporting this bomb, but as I said, I was distracted and under the weather last week and not really keeping up with the racing world. However, racing went on without me, and on April 9th at Gulfstream Park the 2nd race saw a 67.9 to 1 shot wire the field.
Having now updated my spreadsheet the tally is as follows. For the Gulfstream 2009 season to date there have been 176 races with 7 or fewer runners. 10 of those races were won by the longest shot in the field. 10/176 = a 5.68% hit rate and more importantly, a $2 investment on each wager totaling $352.00 would've yielded $537.80 or $0.53 for every $1 wagered. With, I think, 8 racing days left in the season it seems safe to declare this a winning angle for Gulfstream Park 2009.
I have begun tracking Woodbine, since I like watching the little chiclets run around and will follow my home track of Calder when it starts up to see if this continues to be a profitable angle. So far, after 13 qualifying races at Woodbine, there have been no winners, but it's still early.
"May the horse be with you."
And speaking of my favorite authors. J. J. Tuttle continues to trash my review on Amazon while I continue to report positively on a handicapping angle he made a special effort to point out to me. Namely play the longest shot in the short field a short field defined as seven or fewer.
Now, forgive my tardiness in reporting this bomb, but as I said, I was distracted and under the weather last week and not really keeping up with the racing world. However, racing went on without me, and on April 9th at Gulfstream Park the 2nd race saw a 67.9 to 1 shot wire the field.
Having now updated my spreadsheet the tally is as follows. For the Gulfstream 2009 season to date there have been 176 races with 7 or fewer runners. 10 of those races were won by the longest shot in the field. 10/176 = a 5.68% hit rate and more importantly, a $2 investment on each wager totaling $352.00 would've yielded $537.80 or $0.53 for every $1 wagered. With, I think, 8 racing days left in the season it seems safe to declare this a winning angle for Gulfstream Park 2009.
I have begun tracking Woodbine, since I like watching the little chiclets run around and will follow my home track of Calder when it starts up to see if this continues to be a profitable angle. So far, after 13 qualifying races at Woodbine, there have been no winners, but it's still early.
"May the horse be with you."
Sunday, March 29, 2009
It's Quality Road!
Quality Road managed to hold off Dunkirk in the strectch as well as an objection from Kent Desormeaux, the rider of Theregoesjojo, and Garrett Gomez on Dunkirk proving to be the best while setting a course record in the Florida Derby.
Quality Road came into Thergoesjojo lane in while turning into the strecth forcing the latter to check and ruining any chance for Theregoesjojo who was certainly in contention up to that moment. Still Quality Road demonstrated his class and fighting spirit in coming back after being headed by Dunkirk to make it look easy at the end winning by 1 and 3/4 lengths.
After the race, according to the Daily Racing Form, Todd Pletcher had this to say,"Obviously they sped up the racetrack today," he said. "There were two or three track records set, and obviously it was to our disadvantage considering our horse's style. If I knew the track would have been like this, I'd have gone to Aqueduct next week to run in the Wood. But I thought my horse ran terrific. He's made huge strides in a short time."
Now, If Todd had been reading the Chalk Eating Weasel Report, he would have known that the track was running fast this week. I have been amazed while entering running times into my track profile this week just how much faster the track was running compared to the previous weeks.
The result the Chalk Eating Weasel was most frustated over was the DQ of Big Drama down to 2nd in favor of This One's For Phil. This DQ resulted from a steward's inquiry into the stretch run. Big Drama did bear out and give TOFP a little bump at the 1/16th pole, but this bump, in my opinion, had no bearing on the outcome of the race. Had this been a 10k claiming race at Calder, no one would've noticed. The harder, and more serious infraction came just before the finish. Here Big Drama move out again and gave TOFP a pretty good thump. However, even here they were only one jump from the finish and Big Drama had a good head in front. The race was over. The stewards saw it differently and reversed the order of finish putting TOFP on top of Big Drama. Now in the interest of full disclosure, The Chalk Eating Weasel had no dog in this fight as his exacta did not include This One's For Phil. In fact, when the inquiry sign was first posted, I was hoping TOFP might be dropped to third allowing Custom For Carlos to move up to 2nd and complete my Philless exacta. Alas that was not to be.
Nicanor had every opportunity to break his maiden yesterday, but he could not pass Glitterman's Cartel in the stretch, so I now await his eventual drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks although I doubt his connections will give up on him just yet.
However, all was not doom and gloom for the Weasel yesterday. I showed up early to claim a place to sit for the long day ahead and watch the races from Dubai. When I noticed Big City Man running in one of the early races, it was the 4th or 5th I don't remember exactly which one, against an overbet Indian Blessing, I couldn't resist putting a fiver on my old Calder Race Course homeboy who out-gamed Indian Blessing in the end to bring home a 5 to 1 payoff.
I also had the Fla. Derby Exacta. Who didn't? But a win is a win. And the G3 Appleton exacta as Kiss the Kid paid the Weasel for the 2nd time this season by finishing ahead of Artic Cry and paying $62 for a $2 investment.
Well that's about it for this entry as well as the Gulfstream meet as most of the big barns will now pull out and move their stables to up to Kentucky and other parts north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Racing will continue at Gulfstream through April 23, but the fields will consist of big stable 2nd stringers and Calder contenders. On the brighter side, the crowds will be smaller and it will be easier to get in bets.
Until next time, May The Horse be With You
Quality Road came into Thergoesjojo lane in while turning into the strecth forcing the latter to check and ruining any chance for Theregoesjojo who was certainly in contention up to that moment. Still Quality Road demonstrated his class and fighting spirit in coming back after being headed by Dunkirk to make it look easy at the end winning by 1 and 3/4 lengths.
After the race, according to the Daily Racing Form, Todd Pletcher had this to say,"Obviously they sped up the racetrack today," he said. "There were two or three track records set, and obviously it was to our disadvantage considering our horse's style. If I knew the track would have been like this, I'd have gone to Aqueduct next week to run in the Wood. But I thought my horse ran terrific. He's made huge strides in a short time."
Now, If Todd had been reading the Chalk Eating Weasel Report, he would have known that the track was running fast this week. I have been amazed while entering running times into my track profile this week just how much faster the track was running compared to the previous weeks.
The result the Chalk Eating Weasel was most frustated over was the DQ of Big Drama down to 2nd in favor of This One's For Phil. This DQ resulted from a steward's inquiry into the stretch run. Big Drama did bear out and give TOFP a little bump at the 1/16th pole, but this bump, in my opinion, had no bearing on the outcome of the race. Had this been a 10k claiming race at Calder, no one would've noticed. The harder, and more serious infraction came just before the finish. Here Big Drama move out again and gave TOFP a pretty good thump. However, even here they were only one jump from the finish and Big Drama had a good head in front. The race was over. The stewards saw it differently and reversed the order of finish putting TOFP on top of Big Drama. Now in the interest of full disclosure, The Chalk Eating Weasel had no dog in this fight as his exacta did not include This One's For Phil. In fact, when the inquiry sign was first posted, I was hoping TOFP might be dropped to third allowing Custom For Carlos to move up to 2nd and complete my Philless exacta. Alas that was not to be.
Nicanor had every opportunity to break his maiden yesterday, but he could not pass Glitterman's Cartel in the stretch, so I now await his eventual drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks although I doubt his connections will give up on him just yet.
However, all was not doom and gloom for the Weasel yesterday. I showed up early to claim a place to sit for the long day ahead and watch the races from Dubai. When I noticed Big City Man running in one of the early races, it was the 4th or 5th I don't remember exactly which one, against an overbet Indian Blessing, I couldn't resist putting a fiver on my old Calder Race Course homeboy who out-gamed Indian Blessing in the end to bring home a 5 to 1 payoff.
I also had the Fla. Derby Exacta. Who didn't? But a win is a win. And the G3 Appleton exacta as Kiss the Kid paid the Weasel for the 2nd time this season by finishing ahead of Artic Cry and paying $62 for a $2 investment.
Well that's about it for this entry as well as the Gulfstream meet as most of the big barns will now pull out and move their stables to up to Kentucky and other parts north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Racing will continue at Gulfstream through April 23, but the fields will consist of big stable 2nd stringers and Calder contenders. On the brighter side, the crowds will be smaller and it will be easier to get in bets.
Until next time, May The Horse be With You
Friday, March 27, 2009
Florida Derby Eve
Ahh. I'm sitting on my sofa sipping on a fine small batch Kentucky Bourbon and comtemplating the great racing that is to come tomorrow. The weather today saw some light rain, but probably not any more than the maintenance crew would put on the track any way. Tomorrow is supposed to dry, but then, so was today so we'll just have to wait and see.
Now for some predictions. In tomorrow's fifth race, Nicanor makes his third start. He could not have found a softer spot without entering for a tag. After tomorrow, Nicanor will be a maiden no longer.
Here is the hunch bet of the day. In the sixth race Justenuffhumor starts for trainer Kiaran McLAUGHlin. Of course, Mr. K will likely be in Dubai, so I don't know how good that angle will be tomorrow.
In the G2 Swale stakes This One's For Phil starts on the rail out of the chute. This post position is not certain death, like coming out of the 12 hole at 9 furlongs, but it is still a disadvantage. Besides, something in me just wants to shout to the world that This One's For Phil is a fraud. A claiming horse that got lucky. However, I have to admit that he led a tougher field than this one for half a mile last out, and he has Go Go Garrett Gomez on his back just for good measure. Still, I'm going to pick against him. Big Drama comes in fresh off a 3 month layoff and is 5 for 6 including a G3 win at Delta Downs. In addition, he breaks from the outside; therefore he should not have any trip troubles as they come down the long back stretch and should be able to settle right in.
In the G3 Appleton stakes, I'm thinkin' Bold Start will pull off a minor upset. The 5 year old horse is amazingly consistent, 2 for 4 on grass and Kenneth McPeek is 25% going Dirt to Turf. Toss out Granizo, I won a $10 bet on him at 2-1 last week thanks to the first to cross the wire in the slop being DQ'd. I only played him then because was 6 for 6 on off tracks. Unless it rains tomorrow, this one does not belong. The usual suspects in this race will be Kiss The Kid and Vanquisher and either of these could win here as well. And if you want a bomb pick it might just be Artic Cry turning back from a 9 furlong Allowance win. Julian Leparoux takes the mount and I can't think of anyone I'd rather have on grass than him.
As for the Derby, it is very difficult to separate the 3 main contenders, you know who they are. That's the problem. Everyone knows who they are. The dark horse that is getting little consideration here is Danger To Society. After winning his first two, he threw in a real clunker in the G3 Holy Bull, or did he? He ran a Brisnet Speed figure of 90 which was only 5 points off his 95 point allowance win the race before. Furthermore, he has since moved to the Dutrow barn, and we all know what kind of magic he can work first time out with a horse. Just look at This One's For Phil! I'm not predicting a win for Danger To Society here. However, I will keep him in mind for my exactas and if the price is right...
Good luck to all tomorrow wherever you choose to play. Oh and speaking of choosing to play, HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) has come up with an idea that just may work to show how much influence we, as horseplayers, can have. Every week they are going to pick one race from one track on a week day to play and flood the betting pool for that race. This weeks lucky recipient of this 1 race bonanza is Will Rogers Downs. The race is yet to be selected, but you may find out more about it here. http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2009/03/mayo-its-will-rogers-downs.html
May the Horse be with you.
Now for some predictions. In tomorrow's fifth race, Nicanor makes his third start. He could not have found a softer spot without entering for a tag. After tomorrow, Nicanor will be a maiden no longer.
Here is the hunch bet of the day. In the sixth race Justenuffhumor starts for trainer Kiaran McLAUGHlin. Of course, Mr. K will likely be in Dubai, so I don't know how good that angle will be tomorrow.
In the G2 Swale stakes This One's For Phil starts on the rail out of the chute. This post position is not certain death, like coming out of the 12 hole at 9 furlongs, but it is still a disadvantage. Besides, something in me just wants to shout to the world that This One's For Phil is a fraud. A claiming horse that got lucky. However, I have to admit that he led a tougher field than this one for half a mile last out, and he has Go Go Garrett Gomez on his back just for good measure. Still, I'm going to pick against him. Big Drama comes in fresh off a 3 month layoff and is 5 for 6 including a G3 win at Delta Downs. In addition, he breaks from the outside; therefore he should not have any trip troubles as they come down the long back stretch and should be able to settle right in.
In the G3 Appleton stakes, I'm thinkin' Bold Start will pull off a minor upset. The 5 year old horse is amazingly consistent, 2 for 4 on grass and Kenneth McPeek is 25% going Dirt to Turf. Toss out Granizo, I won a $10 bet on him at 2-1 last week thanks to the first to cross the wire in the slop being DQ'd. I only played him then because was 6 for 6 on off tracks. Unless it rains tomorrow, this one does not belong. The usual suspects in this race will be Kiss The Kid and Vanquisher and either of these could win here as well. And if you want a bomb pick it might just be Artic Cry turning back from a 9 furlong Allowance win. Julian Leparoux takes the mount and I can't think of anyone I'd rather have on grass than him.
As for the Derby, it is very difficult to separate the 3 main contenders, you know who they are. That's the problem. Everyone knows who they are. The dark horse that is getting little consideration here is Danger To Society. After winning his first two, he threw in a real clunker in the G3 Holy Bull, or did he? He ran a Brisnet Speed figure of 90 which was only 5 points off his 95 point allowance win the race before. Furthermore, he has since moved to the Dutrow barn, and we all know what kind of magic he can work first time out with a horse. Just look at This One's For Phil! I'm not predicting a win for Danger To Society here. However, I will keep him in mind for my exactas and if the price is right...
Good luck to all tomorrow wherever you choose to play. Oh and speaking of choosing to play, HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) has come up with an idea that just may work to show how much influence we, as horseplayers, can have. Every week they are going to pick one race from one track on a week day to play and flood the betting pool for that race. This weeks lucky recipient of this 1 race bonanza is Will Rogers Downs. The race is yet to be selected, but you may find out more about it here. http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2009/03/mayo-its-will-rogers-downs.html
May the Horse be with you.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Florida Derby Week
The Florida Derby is Saturday and the weather is expected to windy but dry and maybe a little on the warm side. I suppose it will be no surprise to reveal that most of the attention in the 9 horse field will be on Quality Road, Theregoesjojo, and Dunkirk. Pletcher has also entered as an uncoupled entry the winless in one attempt Europe. Doubtless Europe is there to be offered as the sacrificial horse to ensure the late running Dunkirk has an honest pace to run at.
In case you're wondering, Dunkirk may need the help of a rabbit if the track runs like it did today. I've been wondering how all the rain we had last week would effect the course. In general the track has been favoring speed, but after entering the times and beaten lengths in my track profile, I'm surprised the Hallandale Beach Police weren't out by the quarter pole with a radar gun writing tickets. We'll see if the speed bias continues until Saturday.
Speaking of bias, the ongoing saga of J. J. Tuttle continues. He sent me an E-Mail last week to boast that my review of his book was going to be taken down and so it was. After I vigorously protested this move to Amazon threatening to rain down upon them all my blogging and racing connections, they saw fit to reinstate my review.
I don't think I've been unfair to Mr. Tuttle. In fact, in the interest of fairness, here's an update on the long shot-short field angle. To date at the Gulfstream meet there have been 121 races meeting the criteria of 7 or fewer horses including one on Saturday won by the 4/5 longshot Nistle's Crunch. Tee hee. That last one was a two horse match race due to scratches caused by the weather. The favored It's Never Too Late was 1/2.
Of those 121 races 7 have been won by the longest shot in the field. For the mathematically impaired, that's a 5.8% hit rate. If you have bet two dollars on the longest shot in the field in every one of these qualifying races you would be ahead $107.60 with an ROI of $0.46. In addition your average winning odds would be 28/1 even with the 4/5 long shot. There, now how much fairer can I be than to report favorably on an angle given me by the author of a book I panned, and still do.
That's all for now
In case you're wondering, Dunkirk may need the help of a rabbit if the track runs like it did today. I've been wondering how all the rain we had last week would effect the course. In general the track has been favoring speed, but after entering the times and beaten lengths in my track profile, I'm surprised the Hallandale Beach Police weren't out by the quarter pole with a radar gun writing tickets. We'll see if the speed bias continues until Saturday.
Speaking of bias, the ongoing saga of J. J. Tuttle continues. He sent me an E-Mail last week to boast that my review of his book was going to be taken down and so it was. After I vigorously protested this move to Amazon threatening to rain down upon them all my blogging and racing connections, they saw fit to reinstate my review.
I don't think I've been unfair to Mr. Tuttle. In fact, in the interest of fairness, here's an update on the long shot-short field angle. To date at the Gulfstream meet there have been 121 races meeting the criteria of 7 or fewer horses including one on Saturday won by the 4/5 longshot Nistle's Crunch. Tee hee. That last one was a two horse match race due to scratches caused by the weather. The favored It's Never Too Late was 1/2.
Of those 121 races 7 have been won by the longest shot in the field. For the mathematically impaired, that's a 5.8% hit rate. If you have bet two dollars on the longest shot in the field in every one of these qualifying races you would be ahead $107.60 with an ROI of $0.46. In addition your average winning odds would be 28/1 even with the 4/5 long shot. There, now how much fairer can I be than to report favorably on an angle given me by the author of a book I panned, and still do.
That's all for now
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Fair Grounds Stakes
This week the Publichandicappers.com races are all at the Fair Grounds which is one of my favorite tracks to play, so how could I resist.
The first race in the contest is #5 on the Program: The Bienville 75k for Fillies and Mares 4 years old and up contested at 5.5 f on the Turf track.
Aside, New Orleans is expecting rain today. If this race or the other Turf race is moved to the main track, all bets are off.
Here are the picks.
#4 Classify
3-1
7-2
#2 Tale To Be Told
7-2
5-1
#7 Lady Chace
4-1
6-1
#6 Precious Kiss
6-1
9-1
#4 Classify is 2 for 2 over the Fairgrounds Turf including a win in a similar race two ago. Asmussen will have his regular rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard #2 Tale to Be Told beat the top choice in November at Churchill. I wouldn't dismiss a cart horse on turf if Leparoux is riding it. #7 Lady Chace beat the top choice on dirt last out, but Classify seems to hold the edge on grass. #6 Precious Kiss is another that has beaten the top choice on dirt. Being the granddaughter of Kris S. gives her some turf pedigree and will make her dangerous is grandpa's influence is strong. She is somewhat inexperienced on grass and that may work against her.
The next contest race is #7 on the card. The G2 New Orleans Handicap for 4 and up. Distance 9f.
#10 Honest Man
3-1
9-2
#4 Dry Martini
7-2
5-1
#1 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#8 Good And Lucky
6-1
9-1
In a field of some really good, but no seemingly great horses I have to once again give the home team advantage to #10 Honest Man. HM is 4 of 5 over the FG track and won the G3 Mineshaft over this same course last out. #4 Dry Martini ships over from Gulfstream and should benefit from that excruciatingly long Fair Grounds stretch with his late running style. #1 It's A Bird also ships over from Gulfstream, but please don't call me a homer (although some have called me a Homer). Bird ran a big figure in the Sunshine Millions Classic, and I promise you that Wolfson's horses don't bounce. #8 Good and Lucky gets the nod over Wishful Tomcat for 4th contender due to home track advantage having 4 wins in 7 tries at the Fair Grounds
Race 8 is the Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial H. G2 For 4 and up again at 9f on the turf.
Again, if this one is moved to the main track, the following picks may be total nonsense. (so the difference would be?)
#6 Soldier's Dancer
3-1
9-2
#13 Proudinsky
7-2
5-1
#11 Demarcation
4-1
6-1
#1 Windward Islands
6-1
9-1
#6 Soldier's Dancer benefits from the fact that Proudinsky starts from the far outside 14th post does his best running late which may be helpful if the Fair Grounds gets enough rain to soften up the course without taking the race off the grass #13 gets to break from the far outside post. Maybe the long FG stretch will give him an opportunity to find a good position to race from. G2 winner I think is really the best here #11 Demarcation, winner of G2 event at Churchill last November figures to improve 2nd off layoff and 2nd trip over FG course. #1 Windward Islands is in good current form after finishing 2nd in the FG HDCP (G3) and should move forward off that effort.
Finally its the G2 Louisianna Derby (Race 9) at 8.5f for 3 year olds
#3 Patena
3-1
9-2
#9 Friesan Fire
7-2
5-1
#8 Papa Clem
4-1
6-1
#5 Flying Pegasus
6-1
9-1
#3 Patena is today's upset special being taken over by Richard Dutrow and IEAH. There is something remarkable about how horses suddenly improve first out under Dutrow's tutelage (This One's For Phil, for instance). Maybe he's just a great horseman, or maybe he cheats. Either way, he's 33% first time with a horse and 21% in Graded Stakes. Having leading FG rider Robbie Albarado doesn't hurt. #9 Friesan Fire has beaten 6 of the horses in this race before, including the top choice. A repeat would not surprise. #8 Papa Clem spent his last race chasing Pioneerofthe Nile and should set the pace in a relatively paceless race. #5 Flying Pegasus finished 2nd to the 9 last out, but Albardo moves to Patena. Hmmmm
That's all folks. Good luck and enjoy the races.
The first race in the contest is #5 on the Program: The Bienville 75k for Fillies and Mares 4 years old and up contested at 5.5 f on the Turf track.
Aside, New Orleans is expecting rain today. If this race or the other Turf race is moved to the main track, all bets are off.
Here are the picks.
#4 Classify
3-1
7-2
#2 Tale To Be Told
7-2
5-1
#7 Lady Chace
4-1
6-1
#6 Precious Kiss
6-1
9-1
#4 Classify is 2 for 2 over the Fairgrounds Turf including a win in a similar race two ago. Asmussen will have his regular rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard #2 Tale to Be Told beat the top choice in November at Churchill. I wouldn't dismiss a cart horse on turf if Leparoux is riding it. #7 Lady Chace beat the top choice on dirt last out, but Classify seems to hold the edge on grass. #6 Precious Kiss is another that has beaten the top choice on dirt. Being the granddaughter of Kris S. gives her some turf pedigree and will make her dangerous is grandpa's influence is strong. She is somewhat inexperienced on grass and that may work against her.
The next contest race is #7 on the card. The G2 New Orleans Handicap for 4 and up. Distance 9f.
#10 Honest Man
3-1
9-2
#4 Dry Martini
7-2
5-1
#1 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#8 Good And Lucky
6-1
9-1
In a field of some really good, but no seemingly great horses I have to once again give the home team advantage to #10 Honest Man. HM is 4 of 5 over the FG track and won the G3 Mineshaft over this same course last out. #4 Dry Martini ships over from Gulfstream and should benefit from that excruciatingly long Fair Grounds stretch with his late running style. #1 It's A Bird also ships over from Gulfstream, but please don't call me a homer (although some have called me a Homer). Bird ran a big figure in the Sunshine Millions Classic, and I promise you that Wolfson's horses don't bounce. #8 Good and Lucky gets the nod over Wishful Tomcat for 4th contender due to home track advantage having 4 wins in 7 tries at the Fair Grounds
Race 8 is the Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial H. G2 For 4 and up again at 9f on the turf.
Again, if this one is moved to the main track, the following picks may be total nonsense. (so the difference would be?)
#6 Soldier's Dancer
3-1
9-2
#13 Proudinsky
7-2
5-1
#11 Demarcation
4-1
6-1
#1 Windward Islands
6-1
9-1
#6 Soldier's Dancer benefits from the fact that Proudinsky starts from the far outside 14th post does his best running late which may be helpful if the Fair Grounds gets enough rain to soften up the course without taking the race off the grass #13 gets to break from the far outside post. Maybe the long FG stretch will give him an opportunity to find a good position to race from. G2 winner I think is really the best here #11 Demarcation, winner of G2 event at Churchill last November figures to improve 2nd off layoff and 2nd trip over FG course. #1 Windward Islands is in good current form after finishing 2nd in the FG HDCP (G3) and should move forward off that effort.
Finally its the G2 Louisianna Derby (Race 9) at 8.5f for 3 year olds
#3 Patena
3-1
9-2
#9 Friesan Fire
7-2
5-1
#8 Papa Clem
4-1
6-1
#5 Flying Pegasus
6-1
9-1
#3 Patena is today's upset special being taken over by Richard Dutrow and IEAH. There is something remarkable about how horses suddenly improve first out under Dutrow's tutelage (This One's For Phil, for instance). Maybe he's just a great horseman, or maybe he cheats. Either way, he's 33% first time with a horse and 21% in Graded Stakes. Having leading FG rider Robbie Albarado doesn't hurt. #9 Friesan Fire has beaten 6 of the horses in this race before, including the top choice. A repeat would not surprise. #8 Papa Clem spent his last race chasing Pioneerofthe Nile and should set the pace in a relatively paceless race. #5 Flying Pegasus finished 2nd to the 9 last out, but Albardo moves to Patena. Hmmmm
That's all folks. Good luck and enjoy the races.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Handicapping Questions
Here's a poser for you. The first race Saturday at Gulfstream Park will pit 3 year old Maidens against their old brethren. Therefore the question, can 3 year olds compete with 4 year olds this time of year? Now, in case you're wondering, the older horses are spotting their juniors 8 pounds. But what to look for? Well this is going to be a time when saving all those results charts is going to help.
The first race today was at a mile and eighth for 3 and up fillies and mares. This race was won by a 3 yo with a 4yo finishing 2nd and another 3 yo up for the show.
The fifth race was a similar for the other gender. This time won by a 4 yo with a 3yo 2nd and a 5yo gelding 3rd. Hmmm. Does 8 or 9 pounds really mean that much? I may have to reexamine some of my beliefs here.
I should point out that in both of these races, the 3 year olds seemed to have the post position advantages with the inside posts being very advantageous at this distance on Gulfstreams dirt track. The fifth race was run by a horse coming out of the 7 hole which is the farthest out I will even consider for win contention at this distance, unless your name is Big Brown.
There was a 5.5 furlong sprint on the 11th for fillies and mares where the 4 yo's had their way with the younger crowd. Maybe distance is important. After all carrying all that extra weight would seem to take it's toll nearer the end than the beginning.
On March 6th a 7 furlong race for 3 and up claimers N2L was carded but there were no 3 year old takers, and the same again on March 4. So it seems that trainers will throw their 3 yo maidens out there against older maidens, but not against winners.
A limited sample, I admit. But I think I have to give the edge to the older horses on Saturday going a mile. Neither of the contending 4 year olds are breaking from an inside post, which has been a disadvantage for the GP mile.
Now for an update on the short field long price theory. Just to remind you, it has been suggested that playing the longest priced horse in a field of 7 or fewer can be a successful betting angle. In today's 4th race there was just such a winner as Storm Slew crossed the wire first paying a hefty $68.00 on a $2.00 wager for a 33-1 winner.
I have not been able to add to the count from my Calder charts due to a heavier than normal work load. I have been able to keep up with the progress at Gulfstream Park. To date for the meet this angle has won 6 times in 80 opportunities for a 7.5% hit rate. However, with an average winning mutual of 33.4-1 you would have gained a $1.15 for every dollar wagered. That's not too shabby so long as you have the patience to wait through the dry spells. The last winning wager using this angle at GP came on Feb. 22. Thirty-two wagers ago.
I still wonder if this angle would hold true for most tracks or are some tracks more amenable than others to this angle. That's why I'd really love to dig into the Calder charts, but I just haven't had the time to process the data.
Maybe I'll have to eat some crow and retract my assessment of Mr. J. J. Tuttle. But not yet.
The first race today was at a mile and eighth for 3 and up fillies and mares. This race was won by a 3 yo with a 4yo finishing 2nd and another 3 yo up for the show.
The fifth race was a similar for the other gender. This time won by a 4 yo with a 3yo 2nd and a 5yo gelding 3rd. Hmmm. Does 8 or 9 pounds really mean that much? I may have to reexamine some of my beliefs here.
I should point out that in both of these races, the 3 year olds seemed to have the post position advantages with the inside posts being very advantageous at this distance on Gulfstreams dirt track. The fifth race was run by a horse coming out of the 7 hole which is the farthest out I will even consider for win contention at this distance, unless your name is Big Brown.
There was a 5.5 furlong sprint on the 11th for fillies and mares where the 4 yo's had their way with the younger crowd. Maybe distance is important. After all carrying all that extra weight would seem to take it's toll nearer the end than the beginning.
On March 6th a 7 furlong race for 3 and up claimers N2L was carded but there were no 3 year old takers, and the same again on March 4. So it seems that trainers will throw their 3 yo maidens out there against older maidens, but not against winners.
A limited sample, I admit. But I think I have to give the edge to the older horses on Saturday going a mile. Neither of the contending 4 year olds are breaking from an inside post, which has been a disadvantage for the GP mile.
Now for an update on the short field long price theory. Just to remind you, it has been suggested that playing the longest priced horse in a field of 7 or fewer can be a successful betting angle. In today's 4th race there was just such a winner as Storm Slew crossed the wire first paying a hefty $68.00 on a $2.00 wager for a 33-1 winner.
I have not been able to add to the count from my Calder charts due to a heavier than normal work load. I have been able to keep up with the progress at Gulfstream Park. To date for the meet this angle has won 6 times in 80 opportunities for a 7.5% hit rate. However, with an average winning mutual of 33.4-1 you would have gained a $1.15 for every dollar wagered. That's not too shabby so long as you have the patience to wait through the dry spells. The last winning wager using this angle at GP came on Feb. 22. Thirty-two wagers ago.
I still wonder if this angle would hold true for most tracks or are some tracks more amenable than others to this angle. That's why I'd really love to dig into the Calder charts, but I just haven't had the time to process the data.
Maybe I'll have to eat some crow and retract my assessment of Mr. J. J. Tuttle. But not yet.
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Public Handicapper February 28th
Once again your intrepid handicapper is back with another collection of SWAG's for the publichandicapper.com contest.
This week we have two races each from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. One race at each is on the grass for older horses and the 2nd races are on the main track with Derby implications for 3 year olds.
Todd Pletcher's Take The Points was entered in both the Fountain of Youth and the Sham. However, Pletcher is opting for softer competition (IMHO) the Sham at SA.
So now for the Selections:
Race 8 at GP is the 150k Canadian Turf Hdcp.
I should point out right off the bat, for any who might be thinking of considering Delightful Kiss in this race that he, by the admission of his trainer in the DRF http://www.drf.com/news/article/101921.html, is not well intended for this race. Trainer Pete Anderson is considering this as a prep race for Dubai. Of course, he goes on to say something like, to paraphrase Drago from I think it is Rocky 4, if he wins he wins. But my experience has been, if a trainer comes out and tells you he's using a race as a prep race, believe him. Therefore, I don't even consider Delightful Kiss to be a win contender in this race. If we can throw out DK, at least from the win position, then that could make this a very nice betting race for those of us who are better read than others. That being said, here are my picks for the Canadian Turf Hdcp.
#8 Just As Well
3-1
9-2
#7 Vanquisher
7-2
5-1
#10 Bujagali
9-2
7-1
#2 Sporting Art
6-1
9-1
#8 Overachieved last out, Leparoux stays on. #7 May not belong here but showed big closing kick in winning last. #10 is the only committed pure front runner in the race. We have not had much rain this winter and speed is starting to hold up well on the turf course. Could be worth a shot at a price. #2 comes off a long layoff, but KD took the mount and Christophe Clemente is always dangerous on turf.
Next up is the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes to be run at a mile
#9 Capt. Candyman Can
2-1
3-1
#7 Beethoven
9-2
7-1
#3 Notonthesamepage
5-1
8-1
#2 Theregoesjojo
6-1
9-1
#9 has the tactical ability to deal with whatever pace scenario thrown at him. Watch a replay of the Hutcheson where he stalks the pace setters, throttles down to move to the outside, and then reaccelerates to win more easily that the lenghts beaten indicates. #7 got hung 4 wide into the first turn from the deadly outside post at the 1 1/8 Holy Bull. Made a good move to get into contention before running out of gas after running further than any other contender down stretch. #3 May have the early run to avoid the pitfalls of coming out of the 1M chute from an inside post, but there is a lot of speed in this race so he'll need a perfect trip.#2 had plenty left in the tank while winning last out. Not as accomplished as some others here but should be coming at the end.
Over at the other coast. No, not Tampa. The OTHER coast
The 100k Crystal Water Handicap for older California Bredsa
#6 Lucky J H
2-1
3-1
#4 Liberian Freighter
3-1
9-2
#5 Bold Cheiftan
7-2
5-1
#6 Shows a versatile running style and is capable of adjusting to the existing pace condition of the race. Comes 3rd off layoff for Carla Gaines and I can excuse last effort on an off Turf Course #4 should have the controlling speed in a relatively light field, seems to make it a habit of fading near the end but could go wire to wire if allowed to relax early #5 would probably beat this field for fun if well intended in first race after a 4 month hiatus. Might win any way, but I'd need a price for this race.
And last but not least.
The G3 Sham
P# 9th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#12 Take The Points
3-2
5-2
#3 The Pamplemousse
3-2
5-2
I really see this as a two horse race. The Pamplemousse had it all his own way getting to control the pace in a short field for the G3 San Rafael. Therefore the strength of that performance may be overrated. Take The Points was also entered in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but perhaps Pletcher sees some easy pickin's in moving out west instead. Other than these two, it is really hard to make a case for anyone else in the race from my POV.
This week we have two races each from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. One race at each is on the grass for older horses and the 2nd races are on the main track with Derby implications for 3 year olds.
Todd Pletcher's Take The Points was entered in both the Fountain of Youth and the Sham. However, Pletcher is opting for softer competition (IMHO) the Sham at SA.
So now for the Selections:
Race 8 at GP is the 150k Canadian Turf Hdcp.
I should point out right off the bat, for any who might be thinking of considering Delightful Kiss in this race that he, by the admission of his trainer in the DRF http://www.drf.com/news/article/101921.html, is not well intended for this race. Trainer Pete Anderson is considering this as a prep race for Dubai. Of course, he goes on to say something like, to paraphrase Drago from I think it is Rocky 4, if he wins he wins. But my experience has been, if a trainer comes out and tells you he's using a race as a prep race, believe him. Therefore, I don't even consider Delightful Kiss to be a win contender in this race. If we can throw out DK, at least from the win position, then that could make this a very nice betting race for those of us who are better read than others. That being said, here are my picks for the Canadian Turf Hdcp.
#8 Just As Well
3-1
9-2
#7 Vanquisher
7-2
5-1
#10 Bujagali
9-2
7-1
#2 Sporting Art
6-1
9-1
#8 Overachieved last out, Leparoux stays on. #7 May not belong here but showed big closing kick in winning last. #10 is the only committed pure front runner in the race. We have not had much rain this winter and speed is starting to hold up well on the turf course. Could be worth a shot at a price. #2 comes off a long layoff, but KD took the mount and Christophe Clemente is always dangerous on turf.
Next up is the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes to be run at a mile
#9 Capt. Candyman Can
2-1
3-1
#7 Beethoven
9-2
7-1
#3 Notonthesamepage
5-1
8-1
#2 Theregoesjojo
6-1
9-1
#9 has the tactical ability to deal with whatever pace scenario thrown at him. Watch a replay of the Hutcheson where he stalks the pace setters, throttles down to move to the outside, and then reaccelerates to win more easily that the lenghts beaten indicates. #7 got hung 4 wide into the first turn from the deadly outside post at the 1 1/8 Holy Bull. Made a good move to get into contention before running out of gas after running further than any other contender down stretch. #3 May have the early run to avoid the pitfalls of coming out of the 1M chute from an inside post, but there is a lot of speed in this race so he'll need a perfect trip.#2 had plenty left in the tank while winning last out. Not as accomplished as some others here but should be coming at the end.
Over at the other coast. No, not Tampa. The OTHER coast
The 100k Crystal Water Handicap for older California Bredsa
#6 Lucky J H
2-1
3-1
#4 Liberian Freighter
3-1
9-2
#5 Bold Cheiftan
7-2
5-1
#6 Shows a versatile running style and is capable of adjusting to the existing pace condition of the race. Comes 3rd off layoff for Carla Gaines and I can excuse last effort on an off Turf Course #4 should have the controlling speed in a relatively light field, seems to make it a habit of fading near the end but could go wire to wire if allowed to relax early #5 would probably beat this field for fun if well intended in first race after a 4 month hiatus. Might win any way, but I'd need a price for this race.
And last but not least.
The G3 Sham
P# 9th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#12 Take The Points
3-2
5-2
#3 The Pamplemousse
3-2
5-2
I really see this as a two horse race. The Pamplemousse had it all his own way getting to control the pace in a short field for the G3 San Rafael. Therefore the strength of that performance may be overrated. Take The Points was also entered in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but perhaps Pletcher sees some easy pickin's in moving out west instead. Other than these two, it is really hard to make a case for anyone else in the race from my POV.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Hooky!
I got to play hooky from work today, sort of. Having a 1:00 dentist appointment, conveniently located near Gulfstream Park, I boogied on out of that dentist's office as soon as they would let me go and managed to get to good ol' GP in time to see the 3rd race go off.
Ah great joy under partly cloudy skies and a very pleasant 74 degrees (I'm too lazy to use superscript). Even managed to win an investment on the 9-1 Mi Carola in the 7th race making for an extra enjoyable day, indeed.
Also watched Kiaran McLaughlin sweat out the race of the heavily favored Hellvelyn who barely beat at the wire the speedy Piratesonthelake. "Never a doubt," he said.
I don't know what's going to happen to Magna Entertainment, but apparently the shopping, office, and entertainment complex located between the track and U.S. 1 is moving right along. There is a story at Miami Herald. com today that says the says the 85% completed project now has 50% of its space leased to prospective tenants. Such tenants will include Crate and Barrel (who needs crates and barrels?) and The Container Store. In addition there will be up to 10 restaurants and other boutique, specialty type stores. In addition, the developer has cut a deal with the Hallandale Beach City Commision that gives them a share of the projected increased tax revenue projected to reach up to $900k annually. That is of course, if anyone is still in business by 2010. Here's the link if your interested in the entire article. http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/922000.html
I noticed that mention of Magna Entertainment was absent. I have no particular love for MEC. I really don't know that much about them except that they are basically broke. Still, I would hate to lose the Gulfstream Winter racing season. Year round racing at Calder Race Course just won't cut it. I love the full competitive fields. It's so much easier finding overlays among the throngs of socialites and vacationers just out for a daily lark than entering the shark pit and short fields at Calder Race Course.
And speaking of short fields, during my phone conversation with JJ Tuttle (remember him?) he strongly suggested betting the longest shot in a short field. Now a short field is defined as 7 or fewer horses. He wrote about this angle in one of his books, I forget which one. Of course, he offered no data to support this thesis, but because this one is a no brainer to test, I have decided to put it to the test. So far this season, this has been a winning angle at Gulfstream with a 10% hit rate out of 50 such races. The angle shows a $175.80 profit based on a $2.00 win bet for each longest shot contender. However, after going back through all of Gulfstream's charts for the 2009 meet so far, I started on CRC. I haven't gotten very far yet, but after 22 qualifying races the angle has been shut out. Now it is possible that tracks like Calder attract a savvier clientele regarding the handicapping of horses than does Gulfstream Park. I will continue tracking Gulfstream through the remainder of the season and work my way back through all the Calder charts that I have. I don't think I have all the charts for CRC on my hard drive, but I think I can get them if I look hard enough. If anyone want's to share in this little project, I suggest you choose an upper echelon track like, say Santa Anita and a more pedestrian track such as Golden Gate Fields. As for me, I'll be tracking the upcoming Keeneland and Churchill Downs meets. I'll keep you up to date with my results. Who knows, maybe I'll owe Mr. Tuttle an apology.
See ya next time.
Ah great joy under partly cloudy skies and a very pleasant 74 degrees (I'm too lazy to use superscript). Even managed to win an investment on the 9-1 Mi Carola in the 7th race making for an extra enjoyable day, indeed.
Also watched Kiaran McLaughlin sweat out the race of the heavily favored Hellvelyn who barely beat at the wire the speedy Piratesonthelake. "Never a doubt," he said.
I don't know what's going to happen to Magna Entertainment, but apparently the shopping, office, and entertainment complex located between the track and U.S. 1 is moving right along. There is a story at Miami Herald. com today that says the says the 85% completed project now has 50% of its space leased to prospective tenants. Such tenants will include Crate and Barrel (who needs crates and barrels?) and The Container Store. In addition there will be up to 10 restaurants and other boutique, specialty type stores. In addition, the developer has cut a deal with the Hallandale Beach City Commision that gives them a share of the projected increased tax revenue projected to reach up to $900k annually. That is of course, if anyone is still in business by 2010. Here's the link if your interested in the entire article. http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/922000.html
I noticed that mention of Magna Entertainment was absent. I have no particular love for MEC. I really don't know that much about them except that they are basically broke. Still, I would hate to lose the Gulfstream Winter racing season. Year round racing at Calder Race Course just won't cut it. I love the full competitive fields. It's so much easier finding overlays among the throngs of socialites and vacationers just out for a daily lark than entering the shark pit and short fields at Calder Race Course.
And speaking of short fields, during my phone conversation with JJ Tuttle (remember him?) he strongly suggested betting the longest shot in a short field. Now a short field is defined as 7 or fewer horses. He wrote about this angle in one of his books, I forget which one. Of course, he offered no data to support this thesis, but because this one is a no brainer to test, I have decided to put it to the test. So far this season, this has been a winning angle at Gulfstream with a 10% hit rate out of 50 such races. The angle shows a $175.80 profit based on a $2.00 win bet for each longest shot contender. However, after going back through all of Gulfstream's charts for the 2009 meet so far, I started on CRC. I haven't gotten very far yet, but after 22 qualifying races the angle has been shut out. Now it is possible that tracks like Calder attract a savvier clientele regarding the handicapping of horses than does Gulfstream Park. I will continue tracking Gulfstream through the remainder of the season and work my way back through all the Calder charts that I have. I don't think I have all the charts for CRC on my hard drive, but I think I can get them if I look hard enough. If anyone want's to share in this little project, I suggest you choose an upper echelon track like, say Santa Anita and a more pedestrian track such as Golden Gate Fields. As for me, I'll be tracking the upcoming Keeneland and Churchill Downs meets. I'll keep you up to date with my results. Who knows, maybe I'll owe Mr. Tuttle an apology.
See ya next time.
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Some Days You Get The Bear and ....
Yesterday was one of the days the bear got me, it happens and I don't worry about it too much although I did nearly throw my binder when my playing in selection in the 8th race at Gulfstream Park reared at the start. It was one of those days.
I did get to meet Michael Nikolic, the writer of Gathering The Wind http://blackwatchholdings.blogspot.com/. Meeting Michael was very enjoyable and it is always nice to put a face on a name. Only hope I didn't ruin his day.
Meanwhile back to Saturday's results. If its any consolation, I didn't do any better in my other investments than I did with the stakes races.
The Mac Diamarda Stakes at Gulfstream was easily the most frustrating. Firstly because I was there. And mostly because I got to sit there and watch the odds sit right at my overlay points on Pressious Passion, Quasicobra, and Always First. At first, all three horses were overlays with both Quasicobra and Always First both at 8-1 or higher, which would have been a no play. Pressious Passion sat at 5-1 for most of the betting until, maybe 3 minutes before post. Finally, Pressious Passion dropped to 9-2 leaving me with Always First at 7-1 and Quasicobra at 10-1 making the bet to win on Always First with the exacta of Pressious Passion, Quasicobra, and Spice Route over Always First. A look at the results chart of the race shows me that Always First was only $0.10 away from being 8-1 and would have had a nice exacta. The cliche about football is that its a game of inches. Horse racing is more about inches in more ways than football can ever dream about.
Meanwhile, over at the Tampa Bay Stakes. Classic Campaign gave it a good go before being edged at the wire by a neck. Technically, there was no overlay in that race so no detriment to my little record on the left. Unfortunately for me, and this is why I do so much better with a simulcast monitor I can invest from, Classic Campaign dropped from a very nice over layed 8-1 to 7-2 between 5 MTP and Post, actual final odds were 3.9 to 1. Since the 28 to 1 long shot, Victory Alleged indeed, outfinished all my contenders, I came up empty there as well.
Meanwhile, as the bad streak continues, at Turfway in the Valdale Stakes. Spoilher was the play. Unfortunately, Spoilher did not finish. I didn't play that race because I was on my way to the Florida Panthers game by then. However, if I had played that race, Spoilher would have been the 3rd horse I played in 2 weeks that broke down. Bad luck for me and even worse for the poor horses. Trainers and owners should start paying me to not play their horses.
Later at Santa Anita, at least Bel Air Sizzle gave me a conteder with a picture in the winner's circle even if he did have to share the spotlight with One Bad Kitty. However, the play for me was Christiana's Heat at 4-1. Good thing I was at the hockey game by then. Still, it has to count against me as far as the little results thingy on the left goes.
That's racing! The great thing is there is always another race just around the corner. I have to go out now and buy a new mattress.
I did get to meet Michael Nikolic, the writer of Gathering The Wind http://blackwatchholdings.blogspot.com/. Meeting Michael was very enjoyable and it is always nice to put a face on a name. Only hope I didn't ruin his day.
Meanwhile back to Saturday's results. If its any consolation, I didn't do any better in my other investments than I did with the stakes races.
The Mac Diamarda Stakes at Gulfstream was easily the most frustrating. Firstly because I was there. And mostly because I got to sit there and watch the odds sit right at my overlay points on Pressious Passion, Quasicobra, and Always First. At first, all three horses were overlays with both Quasicobra and Always First both at 8-1 or higher, which would have been a no play. Pressious Passion sat at 5-1 for most of the betting until, maybe 3 minutes before post. Finally, Pressious Passion dropped to 9-2 leaving me with Always First at 7-1 and Quasicobra at 10-1 making the bet to win on Always First with the exacta of Pressious Passion, Quasicobra, and Spice Route over Always First. A look at the results chart of the race shows me that Always First was only $0.10 away from being 8-1 and would have had a nice exacta. The cliche about football is that its a game of inches. Horse racing is more about inches in more ways than football can ever dream about.
Meanwhile, over at the Tampa Bay Stakes. Classic Campaign gave it a good go before being edged at the wire by a neck. Technically, there was no overlay in that race so no detriment to my little record on the left. Unfortunately for me, and this is why I do so much better with a simulcast monitor I can invest from, Classic Campaign dropped from a very nice over layed 8-1 to 7-2 between 5 MTP and Post, actual final odds were 3.9 to 1. Since the 28 to 1 long shot, Victory Alleged indeed, outfinished all my contenders, I came up empty there as well.
Meanwhile, as the bad streak continues, at Turfway in the Valdale Stakes. Spoilher was the play. Unfortunately, Spoilher did not finish. I didn't play that race because I was on my way to the Florida Panthers game by then. However, if I had played that race, Spoilher would have been the 3rd horse I played in 2 weeks that broke down. Bad luck for me and even worse for the poor horses. Trainers and owners should start paying me to not play their horses.
Later at Santa Anita, at least Bel Air Sizzle gave me a conteder with a picture in the winner's circle even if he did have to share the spotlight with One Bad Kitty. However, the play for me was Christiana's Heat at 4-1. Good thing I was at the hockey game by then. Still, it has to count against me as far as the little results thingy on the left goes.
That's racing! The great thing is there is always another race just around the corner. I have to go out now and buy a new mattress.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
P H picks for Feb. 21
It's another beautiful day for racing in Sunny South Florida at the Hallandale Beach Gargantuan known as Gulfsteam Park Racing and Casino. What? They have a casino here? Anyhow, I know you are all waiting to see what I've come up with this week. Especially after last weeks lowly 1 for 3 showing ( 0 for 2 if you foolishly followed my betting instructions). The betting instructions can be found in last weeks post, so, without further ado, here are the Saturday Public Handicapper.com picks
First up is the Mac Diarmida Stakes G2 for Four Year Olds and Upward from Gulfstream Park
1 and 3/8 miles on the Turf
#6 Always First
3-1
9-2
#12 Pressious Passion
7-2
5-1
#3 Spice Route
4-1
6-1
#5 Quasicobra
6-1
9-1
#6 G3 winner loves distance comes in fresh #12 extreme outside post prevents from favoritism, can still win here #3 Has run very well in G1 distance races at Woodbine #5 With Leparoux on top is just the kind of long shot I love on the grass.
Excuse the brief analysis, I was doing that one late last night. Now, moving on.
Tampa Bay Stakes 150k for Four Year Olds and Upward 1 and 1/16 miles on the Turf.
#7 Furthest Land
3-1
9-2
#3 Classic Campaign
5-2
5-1
#4 Society's Chairman
7-2
5-1
#1 Atoned
5-1
8-1
This week I am again going for the invaders at Tampa Bay. You'd think I'd learn, but I just didn't think that much of the local talent. #7 Top choice is a Michael Maker horse who showed a great closing kick in winning a 75k Optional Claimer last out at Gulfstream. Has won three in a row and makes stakes debut. #3 ships over from the Fair Grounds for Bill Mott drops down out of a 4th place Grade 3 effort and should find the company a little easier here. #4 Just missed in the Ft. Lauderdale to Kiss the Kid and could run good enough here. #1 is the only Graded stakes winner in the field, but the inside post is 0 for 27 so I have down graded Atoned's chances. In addition, Pletcher had to bring his 2nd stringer, DeCarlo, over for this race as J.R. chose to stay at Gulfstream. What does that tell you?
Then up to Florence, Ky for the 50k Valdale Stakes for Three Year Old Fillies to be contested at a mile over whatever that fake stuff is called they use there.
#10 Spoilher
3-1
9-2
#3 Tacky Cat
7-2
5-1
#6 Emma Darling
4-1
6-1
#7 Karacuda
6-1
9-1
Many of these horse faced each other in the Cincinnati Trophy, but I'm going to the speed horse in the race as the Spoilher. #10 crushed on non-conditioned Allowance field last out at the distance and is 2 for 3 over the course. #3 winner of the C. T. didn't wait to break her maiden before winning C.T. and should be in a good position for a repeat performance. #6 Finished 3rd in C.T. after going 6 wide. The distance should be a better fit here. Michael Maker is a 30% trainer and is an automatic bet in almost every training category. #7 Has lost to the 3 and 6 before, but has run to par so would not completely surprise if she turned the tables here.
Last, but certainly never least, The Valentine Dancer Handicap 100k for California Bred Fillies and Mares 4 Years Old and Upward to be contested at 1 Mile on the Turf.
#2 Christiana's Heat
5-2
4-1
#7 Tiz A Blend
4-1
6-1
#3 Bel Air Sizzle
5-1
8-1
#11 Gambler's Justice
6-1
9-1
Just a note about this race if you've been following the Jockey's series on Animal Planet. It will be interesting to see if Aaron Gryder can stay on One Bad Kitty in the gate today. However the #2 horse has been showing excellent recent form and should be the one to beat . #7 Don't be fooled by the two recent outings by this one as she returns to her favored surface, the projected improvement should not be a surprise. #3 Disappointed on Sunshine Million day, but a return to home and a positive jockey change to Go Go Gomez may be the tonic this one needs #11 This one seems to perk up for the state bred races and the outside post could be a help. Still only 2nd time on grass and coming off a 2 month layoff so some discretion is in order here.
Well that's all for this time. I'm and hour and 40 minutes from leaving the starting gate for GP myself. Here's hoping I did better than last week. And if you want a really hot tip, just bet on the horses I didn't mention and you'll probably do alright.
First up is the Mac Diarmida Stakes G2 for Four Year Olds and Upward from Gulfstream Park
1 and 3/8 miles on the Turf
#6 Always First
3-1
9-2
#12 Pressious Passion
7-2
5-1
#3 Spice Route
4-1
6-1
#5 Quasicobra
6-1
9-1
#6 G3 winner loves distance comes in fresh #12 extreme outside post prevents from favoritism, can still win here #3 Has run very well in G1 distance races at Woodbine #5 With Leparoux on top is just the kind of long shot I love on the grass.
Excuse the brief analysis, I was doing that one late last night. Now, moving on.
Tampa Bay Stakes 150k for Four Year Olds and Upward 1 and 1/16 miles on the Turf.
#7 Furthest Land
3-1
9-2
#3 Classic Campaign
5-2
5-1
#4 Society's Chairman
7-2
5-1
#1 Atoned
5-1
8-1
This week I am again going for the invaders at Tampa Bay. You'd think I'd learn, but I just didn't think that much of the local talent. #7 Top choice is a Michael Maker horse who showed a great closing kick in winning a 75k Optional Claimer last out at Gulfstream. Has won three in a row and makes stakes debut. #3 ships over from the Fair Grounds for Bill Mott drops down out of a 4th place Grade 3 effort and should find the company a little easier here. #4 Just missed in the Ft. Lauderdale to Kiss the Kid and could run good enough here. #1 is the only Graded stakes winner in the field, but the inside post is 0 for 27 so I have down graded Atoned's chances. In addition, Pletcher had to bring his 2nd stringer, DeCarlo, over for this race as J.R. chose to stay at Gulfstream. What does that tell you?
Then up to Florence, Ky for the 50k Valdale Stakes for Three Year Old Fillies to be contested at a mile over whatever that fake stuff is called they use there.
#10 Spoilher
3-1
9-2
#3 Tacky Cat
7-2
5-1
#6 Emma Darling
4-1
6-1
#7 Karacuda
6-1
9-1
Many of these horse faced each other in the Cincinnati Trophy, but I'm going to the speed horse in the race as the Spoilher. #10 crushed on non-conditioned Allowance field last out at the distance and is 2 for 3 over the course. #3 winner of the C. T. didn't wait to break her maiden before winning C.T. and should be in a good position for a repeat performance. #6 Finished 3rd in C.T. after going 6 wide. The distance should be a better fit here. Michael Maker is a 30% trainer and is an automatic bet in almost every training category. #7 Has lost to the 3 and 6 before, but has run to par so would not completely surprise if she turned the tables here.
Last, but certainly never least, The Valentine Dancer Handicap 100k for California Bred Fillies and Mares 4 Years Old and Upward to be contested at 1 Mile on the Turf.
#2 Christiana's Heat
5-2
4-1
#7 Tiz A Blend
4-1
6-1
#3 Bel Air Sizzle
5-1
8-1
#11 Gambler's Justice
6-1
9-1
Just a note about this race if you've been following the Jockey's series on Animal Planet. It will be interesting to see if Aaron Gryder can stay on One Bad Kitty in the gate today. However the #2 horse has been showing excellent recent form and should be the one to beat . #7 Don't be fooled by the two recent outings by this one as she returns to her favored surface, the projected improvement should not be a surprise. #3 Disappointed on Sunshine Million day, but a return to home and a positive jockey change to Go Go Gomez may be the tonic this one needs #11 This one seems to perk up for the state bred races and the outside post could be a help. Still only 2nd time on grass and coming off a 2 month layoff so some discretion is in order here.
Well that's all for this time. I'm and hour and 40 minutes from leaving the starting gate for GP myself. Here's hoping I did better than last week. And if you want a really hot tip, just bet on the horses I didn't mention and you'll probably do alright.
Sunday, February 15, 2009
St. Valentine's Day Massacre
Well the sad news is Voorhee's Ballad, a 5 year old horse sired by Mecke out of Sweet Ballad by Saint Ballado, broke down in the first race yesterday and was euthanized on the track. Voorhee's Ballad had a lifetime record of 37 4-9-6 with $164,109. R.I.P.
In the 3rd race, the winner, Meli, did not get her picture taken as she was vanned off the track. I'm sorry to say Meli's condition is unknown to me at this time. Getting information on horse injuries is difficult to say the least.
Not a great day for the publichandicapper.com picks either. At least at Gulfstream I had the right horse on top, Duke Of Homberg; however, in the contest, I won't even get credit for that as I tried to get cute in the contest and get a better price with Adari. For investment purposes, the race was a pass.
In the remaining two races, I was completely off the board. I thought the invaders would fare much better at Tampa Bay Downs but was mistaken as all my contenders finished off the board. The correct wager, based on my contenders was Cliffy's Future who was never a factor in the race.
Meanwhile at Santa Anita, Mistical Plan was the play. Apparently, the folks at Santa Anita knew something I didn't as Mistical Plan was the longest price on the board and ran accordingly.
I'll try to do better next week.
Meanwhile, as I was entering my $0.50 Pick 4 wager at Gulfstream next to the $50.00 minimum bet window (catch the irony there?) a man comes up to the $50 min window and lays $1000.00 on the 2 at Aqueduct to win. Well your intrepid horseplayer figures this guy must be pretty confident to lay that much money on a horse to win. I looked up at the Aqueduct monitor and saw they were beginning to load. I went to an open wagering machine, and, miraculously, the machine accepted my voucher without a fuss. Then I had to find the Aqueduct track from among the other tracks button, and place my $5.00 investment. When I rechecked the monitor, I could see the race was already running. Hmmmm, what's up with that? At any rate, it turned out well for me. The "2" was the 2-1 2nd choice and, obviously, the inside speed on the Big A's inner track. The 2 wired the field, at least from the point where I joined the race, and paid $6.40.
So here's today's handicapping lesson. Hang out around the $50 minimum bet window and wait for the whales to come in and ride on their coattails.
In the 3rd race, the winner, Meli, did not get her picture taken as she was vanned off the track. I'm sorry to say Meli's condition is unknown to me at this time. Getting information on horse injuries is difficult to say the least.
Not a great day for the publichandicapper.com picks either. At least at Gulfstream I had the right horse on top, Duke Of Homberg; however, in the contest, I won't even get credit for that as I tried to get cute in the contest and get a better price with Adari. For investment purposes, the race was a pass.
In the remaining two races, I was completely off the board. I thought the invaders would fare much better at Tampa Bay Downs but was mistaken as all my contenders finished off the board. The correct wager, based on my contenders was Cliffy's Future who was never a factor in the race.
Meanwhile at Santa Anita, Mistical Plan was the play. Apparently, the folks at Santa Anita knew something I didn't as Mistical Plan was the longest price on the board and ran accordingly.
I'll try to do better next week.
Meanwhile, as I was entering my $0.50 Pick 4 wager at Gulfstream next to the $50.00 minimum bet window (catch the irony there?) a man comes up to the $50 min window and lays $1000.00 on the 2 at Aqueduct to win. Well your intrepid horseplayer figures this guy must be pretty confident to lay that much money on a horse to win. I looked up at the Aqueduct monitor and saw they were beginning to load. I went to an open wagering machine, and, miraculously, the machine accepted my voucher without a fuss. Then I had to find the Aqueduct track from among the other tracks button, and place my $5.00 investment. When I rechecked the monitor, I could see the race was already running. Hmmmm, what's up with that? At any rate, it turned out well for me. The "2" was the 2-1 2nd choice and, obviously, the inside speed on the Big A's inner track. The 2 wired the field, at least from the point where I joined the race, and paid $6.40.
So here's today's handicapping lesson. Hang out around the $50 minimum bet window and wait for the whales to come in and ride on their coattails.
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Publichandicapper.com Contest Picks for Feb. 14: St. Valentine's Day Massacre?
Ok, today I begin my first day of accountability for my contest picks as I will begin filling in that little box on the left hand side.
First, let me spell out my betting rules up front, because there is no way I can possibly know which of my contenders I will play before I can see the actual odds. In fact, there is no way I can possibly know if I am even going to play a race until I see the actual odds.
My betting rules come straight out of Steve Fiero's book "The Four Corners of Horse Investing". I highly recommend this book. You will see two sets of odds for each contender. The lower of the two is what I consider to be the fair odds, or probability of the horse to win; the 2nd set is the minimum overlay odds I require for an investment. My odds line is completely qualitative and based on experience and intuition. If I ever find a reliable method of making a mathmatically sound method of creating an odds line without using a computer program, I'll use it.
I will bet whichever horse among my contenders is overlayed.
If two horses are overlayed, I will bet the horse with the lower odds as that is the one statistically most likely to win.
If three or four horses are overlayed, I will not play the race as that is an indication that I have missed something intrinsically important.
If two horses are overlayed at odds =or> 8:1 I will split my win bet between them.
If I have made my top choice 3-2 or less and the crowd agrees with that assessment, I will pass the race rather than bet against a "Legitimate Favorite". This is not usually an issue when I have 4 solid contenders.
If any contender is < 3-2 and no other entry is < 5-1 I will pass the race rather than play against a "Prohibitive Favorite"
I almost forgot the most important rule: No overlay, no play.
Those are Steve Fiero's basic rules for win betting.
Then what I like to do is play my overlay win choice underneath the other contenders in an exacta. This is not done in every case. For instance if my top choice is just barely an overlay, it is probably not a good value to pile on more with exacta bets. But if it is my 4th choice, many times the exact payout is more than I would've won with the win bet. Use discretion with this one.
Race 9 at GP is the Hallandale Beach Hdcp
#1 Duke of Homburg
3-1
9-2
#5 Tamoborim
7-2
5-1
#8 Lime Rickey
9-2
7-1
#10 Adari
6-1
9-1
#1 ran into trouble while making move in stretch could be first with a better trip. #5 Makes 2009 debut is flattered by win last out win field containing This One's For Phil, winner of the Sunshine Millions Dash #8 Lime Rickey overachieved in the Dania Beach Handicap in finishing 2nd at 17 to 1 last out gets the always dangerous Leparoux for the trip #10 made a big closing rush to finish 4th in the DBH, extra distance may help
Tampa Bay Downs Race 10 Sam F. Davis-G3
#7 Free Country
2-1
3-1
#5 Atomic Rain
5-2
4-1
#6 Cliffy's Future
4-1
6-1
#7 Invaders descend upon Tampa to scoop up some easy Graded stakes pickings. The cream of the GP jockey colony goes to the west coast and Desormeaux on undefeated Free Country is the top pick here. #5 JR Velazquez has eschewed some pricey races at GP for what he must feel is an easy spot here aboard Atomic Rain. However AR may not get an easy lead today with front-running A.P. Cardinal in the field. #6 ships down from Aqueduct and has had 3 weeks to acclimate to Florida's warmer climate. Paco Lopez was the hot apprentice at Calder this summer and has continued to dominate as a journeyman rider at Tampa. He'll be one to watch for the future.
Santa Anita Race 9 Santa Maria Hdcp-G1
#11 Leah's Secret
3-1
9-2
#4 Mistical
7-2
5-1
#10 Visit
4-1
6-1
#7 Bsharpsonata
6-1
9-1
#11 Ended 2008 campaign with two G2 wins and started 2009 with easy win after freshining in a race the connections probably didn't even care that much about. #4 Speed stretching out is always dangerous, I'd be happy to play this one at the right odds and even happier underneath in the exacta. #10 G3 winner in GB has yet to prove mettle in States. Go Go Gomez takes the irons making automatic contender. #7 The other Pletcher entry won't have Indian Blessing to contend with here, but I think the higher contenders may be more accomplished excepting Visit.
Turf Paradise Race 8 Phoenix Gold Cup Handicap
I'm going to cop out and pass on the Turf Paradise race because I don't really know the track, trainers, horses, or Jockeys. However, if you put a gun to my head I'll take the likely chalk, Machismo followed by Northern Soldier, and White Spar. I will use these picks for the publichandicappers contest just because, but will not even think about playing this race.
That's it for today. Good Luck to all you weekend warriors out there
First, let me spell out my betting rules up front, because there is no way I can possibly know which of my contenders I will play before I can see the actual odds. In fact, there is no way I can possibly know if I am even going to play a race until I see the actual odds.
My betting rules come straight out of Steve Fiero's book "The Four Corners of Horse Investing". I highly recommend this book. You will see two sets of odds for each contender. The lower of the two is what I consider to be the fair odds, or probability of the horse to win; the 2nd set is the minimum overlay odds I require for an investment. My odds line is completely qualitative and based on experience and intuition. If I ever find a reliable method of making a mathmatically sound method of creating an odds line without using a computer program, I'll use it.
I will bet whichever horse among my contenders is overlayed.
If two horses are overlayed, I will bet the horse with the lower odds as that is the one statistically most likely to win.
If three or four horses are overlayed, I will not play the race as that is an indication that I have missed something intrinsically important.
If two horses are overlayed at odds =or> 8:1 I will split my win bet between them.
If I have made my top choice 3-2 or less and the crowd agrees with that assessment, I will pass the race rather than bet against a "Legitimate Favorite". This is not usually an issue when I have 4 solid contenders.
If any contender is < 3-2 and no other entry is < 5-1 I will pass the race rather than play against a "Prohibitive Favorite"
I almost forgot the most important rule: No overlay, no play.
Those are Steve Fiero's basic rules for win betting.
Then what I like to do is play my overlay win choice underneath the other contenders in an exacta. This is not done in every case. For instance if my top choice is just barely an overlay, it is probably not a good value to pile on more with exacta bets. But if it is my 4th choice, many times the exact payout is more than I would've won with the win bet. Use discretion with this one.
Race 9 at GP is the Hallandale Beach Hdcp
#1 Duke of Homburg
3-1
9-2
#5 Tamoborim
7-2
5-1
#8 Lime Rickey
9-2
7-1
#10 Adari
6-1
9-1
#1 ran into trouble while making move in stretch could be first with a better trip. #5 Makes 2009 debut is flattered by win last out win field containing This One's For Phil, winner of the Sunshine Millions Dash #8 Lime Rickey overachieved in the Dania Beach Handicap in finishing 2nd at 17 to 1 last out gets the always dangerous Leparoux for the trip #10 made a big closing rush to finish 4th in the DBH, extra distance may help
Tampa Bay Downs Race 10 Sam F. Davis-G3
#7 Free Country
2-1
3-1
#5 Atomic Rain
5-2
4-1
#6 Cliffy's Future
4-1
6-1
#7 Invaders descend upon Tampa to scoop up some easy Graded stakes pickings. The cream of the GP jockey colony goes to the west coast and Desormeaux on undefeated Free Country is the top pick here. #5 JR Velazquez has eschewed some pricey races at GP for what he must feel is an easy spot here aboard Atomic Rain. However AR may not get an easy lead today with front-running A.P. Cardinal in the field. #6 ships down from Aqueduct and has had 3 weeks to acclimate to Florida's warmer climate. Paco Lopez was the hot apprentice at Calder this summer and has continued to dominate as a journeyman rider at Tampa. He'll be one to watch for the future.
Santa Anita Race 9 Santa Maria Hdcp-G1
#11 Leah's Secret
3-1
9-2
#4 Mistical
7-2
5-1
#10 Visit
4-1
6-1
#7 Bsharpsonata
6-1
9-1
#11 Ended 2008 campaign with two G2 wins and started 2009 with easy win after freshining in a race the connections probably didn't even care that much about. #4 Speed stretching out is always dangerous, I'd be happy to play this one at the right odds and even happier underneath in the exacta. #10 G3 winner in GB has yet to prove mettle in States. Go Go Gomez takes the irons making automatic contender. #7 The other Pletcher entry won't have Indian Blessing to contend with here, but I think the higher contenders may be more accomplished excepting Visit.
Turf Paradise Race 8 Phoenix Gold Cup Handicap
I'm going to cop out and pass on the Turf Paradise race because I don't really know the track, trainers, horses, or Jockeys. However, if you put a gun to my head I'll take the likely chalk, Machismo followed by Northern Soldier, and White Spar. I will use these picks for the publichandicappers contest just because, but will not even think about playing this race.
That's it for today. Good Luck to all you weekend warriors out there
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Book Review!!!
Since I've finished with the Thursday past performances for Fair Grounds and Golden Gate Fields and the Saturday Gulfstream Park PP's are not yet available, I have a little time for another adventure into the world of book reviews.
But first, you will notice a little addition on the left side of the page. I occasionally offer opinions on the outcome of races and decided, in the interest of full disclosure, you the reader should know how much my opinion is worth.
Now, if I may toot my own horn, I told you I love to play the Fair Grounds and came through with two winners out of three races. Out at Santa Anita, I didn't fare so well. I, like many others I've come to learn, thought I could beat Cowboy Cal. Well, I didn't, so sue me. No wait a minute, don't do that!
Todd Pletcher is one of the more confounding big name trainers for me. Don't get me wrong, I love Todd. He even posed for my wife at Gulfstream a couple of weeks ago. That picture is in a previous edition. However, it seems I'm always on the wrong side of the bet when it comes to Mr. Pletcher. If I try to beat him, he wins. If I jump on his band wagon, he's up the track and out of the money. Do you have anyone like that? Of course you do.
Now on to the review.
Today I take a critical look at "The Tuttle Way: Applied Methodologies On "How To" Interpret The Racing Form From A Winning Horseplayer" by Joseph J. Tuttle
In the beginning of the book, Mr. Tuttle seeks to establish is bona fides as a horseman by informing us his father, Seymour Tuttle, was involved in the training of horses. Naturally, I promptly did a Google search which came up empty. It's not that I can't take Mr. Tuttle's word for it, but his credibility would be bolstered if I could have found some reference to a Seymour Tuttle within, say the first 5 or 6 pages of 19,900 results. No, I did not go through all 19,900 results, but you may feel free to, if you must.
The 172 page paper-back consists of mostly large type face, which is easy on the eyes. It's also easy on a writer that really doesn't have much to say.
He opens with a brief history of the Daily Racing Form and dwells a lot on the unreliability of Beyer's figures before finally admitting that he does use them. This in itself is not so bad. I agree that Beyer's figures sort of need to be taken in context of class and pace.
Then we come to something I find particularly off-putting as Mr. Tuttle makes the claim that 81% of all races are won by horses that have had 29 to 119 days off. Is this really true? It may well be, but I'm a scientist by profession, so my first question is "What is the source of this data and how was it derived?" Alas there is no answer to this query. The reader is supposed to simply accept this number on faith. He does allow for exceptions such as the Preakness about which he writes,” You can count the number of Preakness winners on one hand, which won that race after skipping the Kentucky Derby, over the past twenty-five years." Note the excessive use of commas in that sentence is the writers.
He tells us a main characteristic of a horse with "class" is the ability to switch leads and that 90% of all horses switch leads instinctively. I know. A wild statistic thrown about with no validation. However, the real issue is, if 90% of all horses do this instinctively, does this mean that 90% of all horses are classy? That's sort of like saying 90% of all people are extraordinary. If 90% of all people are extraordinary, then that is the norm. Rather ordinary I'd say.
Now this is where the writer really loses me as we move into what I refer to as the,"Old wives tales." section of the book. And we're only on page 22. Watch out for those horses with 4 white socks as they are more likely to turn up lame. More prevalent among younger horses according to the author. Horses with prominent,"Blazes and Stars" on their faces will show or have a lot of front-running speed. Mr. Tuttle tells us that many prominent horseman hold to this belief; however, he neglects to name names. I'll have to ask Mr. Pletcher about this the next time I see him at Gulfstream. Oh yeah, I should add this, and you get this for free, always bet grey horses on grey days. That's a sure winning angle...Puhleeze.
Ahem, excuse my sarcasm.
Now in a portion of the book headed as (The Comment Line), Mr. Tuttle says he puts high value on the comment line because it tells you much about the company the horse has been keeping. Then, tangentially, moves onto video tape analysis and some sort of esoteric calculation involving how many horses a horse passes on average per race. I'm telling you, the book is full these rambling sort of right angle turns with no rhyme or reason.
I asked my wife, a natural handicapper in her own right (if only we could merge my analytical nature with her intuitive sense of body language of both people and horses, we'd be unstoppable), to read the 4 page section on "The Comment Line" and tell me what she learned about "The Comment Line". "Nothing", was her answer.
Chapter 3
We learn about his "universal" number, 20. We learn how to use this magical universal number to make the flawed DRF speed figure and track variant better through the use of a seemingly arbitrary constant. Why not seven? Much luckier than 20. Or three? Holy Trinity and all that. I guess Pi would be out of the question since it’s a non-repeating number, how would we know where to stop? Then we take this number and add it to the Beyer's number and divide the sum by 2 and, voila!, we have a new and improved speed figure. I think not.
Enough of this. The remainder of the book is full of similar nonsense and non-validated percentages and general arbitrariness all written in a very disorganized manner. I cannot bear to go on. Suffice it to say I give Mr. Tuttle's effort a firm up the track and out of the money rating. Save your money and pass this book.
I buy these books because I can't help myself. Use my addiction to your benefit and stay as far away from this book.
FYI. In the Jan/Feb issue of the Horseplayer Magazine there is a nice article by Prentice Manetter on playing the pick four. Since I sort of panned his book in my last review, I thought I'd at least give credit where credit is due.
But first, you will notice a little addition on the left side of the page. I occasionally offer opinions on the outcome of races and decided, in the interest of full disclosure, you the reader should know how much my opinion is worth.
Now, if I may toot my own horn, I told you I love to play the Fair Grounds and came through with two winners out of three races. Out at Santa Anita, I didn't fare so well. I, like many others I've come to learn, thought I could beat Cowboy Cal. Well, I didn't, so sue me. No wait a minute, don't do that!
Todd Pletcher is one of the more confounding big name trainers for me. Don't get me wrong, I love Todd. He even posed for my wife at Gulfstream a couple of weeks ago. That picture is in a previous edition. However, it seems I'm always on the wrong side of the bet when it comes to Mr. Pletcher. If I try to beat him, he wins. If I jump on his band wagon, he's up the track and out of the money. Do you have anyone like that? Of course you do.
Now on to the review.
Today I take a critical look at "The Tuttle Way: Applied Methodologies On "How To" Interpret The Racing Form From A Winning Horseplayer" by Joseph J. Tuttle
In the beginning of the book, Mr. Tuttle seeks to establish is bona fides as a horseman by informing us his father, Seymour Tuttle, was involved in the training of horses. Naturally, I promptly did a Google search which came up empty. It's not that I can't take Mr. Tuttle's word for it, but his credibility would be bolstered if I could have found some reference to a Seymour Tuttle within, say the first 5 or 6 pages of 19,900 results. No, I did not go through all 19,900 results, but you may feel free to, if you must.
The 172 page paper-back consists of mostly large type face, which is easy on the eyes. It's also easy on a writer that really doesn't have much to say.
He opens with a brief history of the Daily Racing Form and dwells a lot on the unreliability of Beyer's figures before finally admitting that he does use them. This in itself is not so bad. I agree that Beyer's figures sort of need to be taken in context of class and pace.
Then we come to something I find particularly off-putting as Mr. Tuttle makes the claim that 81% of all races are won by horses that have had 29 to 119 days off. Is this really true? It may well be, but I'm a scientist by profession, so my first question is "What is the source of this data and how was it derived?" Alas there is no answer to this query. The reader is supposed to simply accept this number on faith. He does allow for exceptions such as the Preakness about which he writes,” You can count the number of Preakness winners on one hand, which won that race after skipping the Kentucky Derby, over the past twenty-five years." Note the excessive use of commas in that sentence is the writers.
He tells us a main characteristic of a horse with "class" is the ability to switch leads and that 90% of all horses switch leads instinctively. I know. A wild statistic thrown about with no validation. However, the real issue is, if 90% of all horses do this instinctively, does this mean that 90% of all horses are classy? That's sort of like saying 90% of all people are extraordinary. If 90% of all people are extraordinary, then that is the norm. Rather ordinary I'd say.
Now this is where the writer really loses me as we move into what I refer to as the,"Old wives tales." section of the book. And we're only on page 22. Watch out for those horses with 4 white socks as they are more likely to turn up lame. More prevalent among younger horses according to the author. Horses with prominent,"Blazes and Stars" on their faces will show or have a lot of front-running speed. Mr. Tuttle tells us that many prominent horseman hold to this belief; however, he neglects to name names. I'll have to ask Mr. Pletcher about this the next time I see him at Gulfstream. Oh yeah, I should add this, and you get this for free, always bet grey horses on grey days. That's a sure winning angle...Puhleeze.
Ahem, excuse my sarcasm.
Now in a portion of the book headed as (The Comment Line), Mr. Tuttle says he puts high value on the comment line because it tells you much about the company the horse has been keeping. Then, tangentially, moves onto video tape analysis and some sort of esoteric calculation involving how many horses a horse passes on average per race. I'm telling you, the book is full these rambling sort of right angle turns with no rhyme or reason.
I asked my wife, a natural handicapper in her own right (if only we could merge my analytical nature with her intuitive sense of body language of both people and horses, we'd be unstoppable), to read the 4 page section on "The Comment Line" and tell me what she learned about "The Comment Line". "Nothing", was her answer.
Chapter 3
We learn about his "universal" number, 20. We learn how to use this magical universal number to make the flawed DRF speed figure and track variant better through the use of a seemingly arbitrary constant. Why not seven? Much luckier than 20. Or three? Holy Trinity and all that. I guess Pi would be out of the question since it’s a non-repeating number, how would we know where to stop? Then we take this number and add it to the Beyer's number and divide the sum by 2 and, voila!, we have a new and improved speed figure. I think not.
Enough of this. The remainder of the book is full of similar nonsense and non-validated percentages and general arbitrariness all written in a very disorganized manner. I cannot bear to go on. Suffice it to say I give Mr. Tuttle's effort a firm up the track and out of the money rating. Save your money and pass this book.
I buy these books because I can't help myself. Use my addiction to your benefit and stay as far away from this book.
FYI. In the Jan/Feb issue of the Horseplayer Magazine there is a nice article by Prentice Manetter on playing the pick four. Since I sort of panned his book in my last review, I thought I'd at least give credit where credit is due.
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Public Handicapper Quick Picks
Mundane day for racing at GP today. Could just as easily be at CRC, so I handicapped the day accordingly. Big Stakes day at Fair Grounds, one of my favorite tracks to play, with 3 PH races to pick. Add one from Santa Anita and you have the beginnning of a new contest.
I didn't win, or even come close, to winning The Winter of Our Discontent but did have a positive ROI for the contest.
Time is short and I lost my Fair Grounds analysis, long story, so you'll have to trust me.
Race 6
#8 Honest Man
3-1
9-2
#2 Good and Lucky
4-1
6-1
#1 Secret Getaway
9-2
7-1
#4 Grasshopper
5-1
8-1
Race 7
#7 Demarcation
3-1
9-2
#1 French Beret
7-2
5-1
#2 Jimmy Simms
9-2
7-1
#5 Diamond Tycoon
6-1
9-1
Race 9
#6 Friesen fire
3-1
9-2
#7 Giant Oak
7-2
5-1
#4 It Happened Again
4-1
6-1
#5 Uno Mas
6-1
9-1
And the Strub from Santa Anita where I am going against the favored Cowboy Cal (distance)
#5 Gio Ponti
3-1
9-2
#7 Nownownow
7-2
5-1
#1 Dixie Chatter
4-1
6-1
#9 Wishful Tomcat
6-1
9-1
#5 has demonstrated ability for the distance and the surface #7 I think this race sets up for closers and #7 qualifies on that count #1 Won the G1 Norfolk in '07 coming from off the pace. #9 will want to contend for the lead, but unlike Cowboy Cal, had won twice at the distance.
I didn't win, or even come close, to winning The Winter of Our Discontent but did have a positive ROI for the contest.
Time is short and I lost my Fair Grounds analysis, long story, so you'll have to trust me.
Race 6
#8 Honest Man
3-1
9-2
#2 Good and Lucky
4-1
6-1
#1 Secret Getaway
9-2
7-1
#4 Grasshopper
5-1
8-1
Race 7
#7 Demarcation
3-1
9-2
#1 French Beret
7-2
5-1
#2 Jimmy Simms
9-2
7-1
#5 Diamond Tycoon
6-1
9-1
Race 9
#6 Friesen fire
3-1
9-2
#7 Giant Oak
7-2
5-1
#4 It Happened Again
4-1
6-1
#5 Uno Mas
6-1
9-1
And the Strub from Santa Anita where I am going against the favored Cowboy Cal (distance)
#5 Gio Ponti
3-1
9-2
#7 Nownownow
7-2
5-1
#1 Dixie Chatter
4-1
6-1
#9 Wishful Tomcat
6-1
9-1
#5 has demonstrated ability for the distance and the surface #7 I think this race sets up for closers and #7 qualifies on that count #1 Won the G1 Norfolk in '07 coming from off the pace. #9 will want to contend for the lead, but unlike Cowboy Cal, had won twice at the distance.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Nicanor
Nicanor, the brother of Barbaro, entered the walking ring at Gulfstream Park yesterday to a mild round of applause from the people gathered around the area. Despite the runnings of the Grade 3 Holy Bull possibly the first legitimate step for east coast 3 year olds on the road to the Kentucky Derby, and the G1 Donn Handicap featuring Albertus Maximus and the great Einstein, it was this, as of yet unaccomplished 3 year old maiden that many in the crowd came to see. I make this judgement based on how short the betting lines were for the feature 9th race after Nicanor had done his thing. Funny thing is, I didn't even realize Barbaro's brother was running until the night before when someone had told me.
I thought Nicanor looked to be in good condition, as far as this born and bred city-boy can tell about horses. I heard some people remark about how small he was; however, he didn't strike me as being particularly undersized.
At the first showing of the morning line, I was surprised to see him at 4-5. However, by post time the odds had floated up to a still unrealistic 5-2.
Nicanor was well behaved in the walking ring and has obviously been schooled before this race and had an idea of what to expect. Nicanor was a little fractious in the post parade, but nothing to bad for a first trip in a real race, just enough to show that he is still a little green.
By now, I'm sure you know the story how the race went. Not totally unexpected for a first timer. Even Michael Matz said in a pre-race interview that he felt Nicanor would need a trip around the track before getting serious about winning (I am paraphrasing and interpreting here). I have found that, for big races where trainers are actually interviewed before the race, you can tell alot about a horses chances by how the trainer speaks of him before the race.
Nicanor had trouble at the gate, made a nice run down the backstretch to, at least, make contact with the lead pack and then faded to be 10 of 12. I think his baskstretch move showed he has some potential, but we'll have to wait and see if this is the return of Barbaro.
Here are some pictures from the event.
Walking to the Paddock
Entering the Walking Ring
Taking a few laps
Peeking from behind the palm tree
Post Parade
He at least looks the part.
At the finish line
Time to dismount
Look's good with that Wind-Blown hair
Back to the Barn
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Barbaro's Brother
Barbaro's full brother, Nicanor makes his racing debut at Gulfstream Park today in the 8th race of the day. I'll be there and give you a full report with pictures and all after the race. Nicanor is trained by Michael Matz and will be ridden by Edgar Prado.
Today is the last day of the Public handicappers Winter of our Discontent contest. Two of the races are at GP, the G3 Holy Bull and the G1 Donn Handicap. I didn't have time to do the other two races this week, but here is my analysis of the two big races at GP today.
G3 Holy Bull Stakes
#2 Danger To Society
3-1
9-2
#10 West Side Bernie
4-1
6-1
#11 Beethoven
4-1
6-1
#8 Idol Maker
6-1
9-1
#2 Impressive Allowance winner gets favorable post draw. #10 2yo G3 winner will be hampered by outside post position #11 Another 2yo G2 winner will be hampered by the extreme outside post position. #8 Most impressive of the rest with Pletcher/Velasquez combo, but still has to deal with pp8. Outside post positions at 9 furlongs are very difficult from 8 out.
G1 Donn Handicap
#2 Albertus Maximus
8-5
5-2
#10 Einstein
6-1
9-1
#3 Anak Nakai
6-1
9-1
#7 Arson Squad
6-1
9-1
#2 Along with Einstein, clearly the best but gets the luck of the PP draw. Outside post diminishes the chances of a great horse and Pitts is only 5% off layoff #3 Gets much improved post from the Hal's Hope race and should look better. #7 G2 winner is 3 for 5 at the distance. Dutrow is 25% off layoff.
I'll see you later tonight or tomorrow with some pictures of Barbaro's baby brother
Today is the last day of the Public handicappers Winter of our Discontent contest. Two of the races are at GP, the G3 Holy Bull and the G1 Donn Handicap. I didn't have time to do the other two races this week, but here is my analysis of the two big races at GP today.
G3 Holy Bull Stakes
#2 Danger To Society
3-1
9-2
#10 West Side Bernie
4-1
6-1
#11 Beethoven
4-1
6-1
#8 Idol Maker
6-1
9-1
#2 Impressive Allowance winner gets favorable post draw. #10 2yo G3 winner will be hampered by outside post position #11 Another 2yo G2 winner will be hampered by the extreme outside post position. #8 Most impressive of the rest with Pletcher/Velasquez combo, but still has to deal with pp8. Outside post positions at 9 furlongs are very difficult from 8 out.
G1 Donn Handicap
#2 Albertus Maximus
8-5
5-2
#10 Einstein
6-1
9-1
#3 Anak Nakai
6-1
9-1
#7 Arson Squad
6-1
9-1
#2 Along with Einstein, clearly the best but gets the luck of the PP draw. Outside post diminishes the chances of a great horse and Pitts is only 5% off layoff #3 Gets much improved post from the Hal's Hope race and should look better. #7 G2 winner is 3 for 5 at the distance. Dutrow is 25% off layoff.
I'll see you later tonight or tomorrow with some pictures of Barbaro's baby brother
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Sunshine Millions Lessons Learned
Nobody wins everyday, and anyone who claims to is a prevaricator. I have played the races on 12 days so far this year. I have had 6 winning days and 6 losing days. Yesterday was a losing day. I don't mind losing days so much, because there is always something to be learned from the losses. The following is what I learned yesterday.
1. If Todd Pletcher has a first time starter that cost 3.7 million at auction, Dunkirk, the horse is automatically a contender. The following description of Dunkirk's race comes straight from the results chart, "DUNKIRK rated after breaking slowly, was forced wait [sic] for room in behind a wall of horses on the turn, angled six wide at the top of the stretch, rallied to gain command inside the eight pole, then drew away."
While watching the race and keeping an eye on the horse everyone was talking about, I thought there was no way it was going to win the race. Then Dunkirk simply turned on the after-burners in that final furlong. It wasn't even close winning by an easy 5 3/4 length. Imagine if the trip for Dunkirk had been less troubled. Dunkirk paid 5.40 to win.
Todd Pletcher looking good and feeling good after Dunkirk's romp
2. Richard Dutrow is lethal 1st time with a horse. Remember that question I asked about This One's For Phil? Even though Phil was going Turf to Dirt and turning back in distance after leading the first two calls, one of my favorite angles, I still didn't think he was good enough to win, which he did paying $25.40.
Dutrow is 32% with a +0.40 ROI 1st time with a horse. This horse had two strong angles going for it that I ignored completely.
I'm sure there is more to learn, and I'll share them with you as the post mortem progresses.
As for my prognostications, 2 winners out of 4, but I'm not especially proud of that record. I totally whiffed on the Dash thanks to Phil.
In the Filly and Mare Turf at Gulfstream, Bel Air Sizzle decided she wasn't ready to go when they opened the gate spotting the field, at least, a full second head start. It's amazing she didn't finish dead last. Also the anticipated speed duel never materialized as the front-runners set reasonable fractions.
I did, at least manage to have the winners of the Santa Anita races I covered. I played Presious Passion to win in the Turf Race and Elvis Trujillo gave me a brilliant ride and PP did his best to hold 2nd giving me the consolation exacta prize.
I didn't see the 8th race, but know Georgie Boy took the honors although had I played the race I would have been on Sok Sok who did not do as well.
More later
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