All's Quiet

It's that quiet time between the Derby and the Preakness. Many of the trainers and owners playing it cagey in trying to decide whether to run in the Preakness or skip the middle and load up for the Belmont.

As for me, I stand by my position that Jackson Bend should have skipped the Derby and aimed directly for the Preakness. Conveyance and Noble's Promise are not in the Preakness. Ice Box is out and they are still on the fence regarding Lookin at Lucky and Jackson Bend. I think I saw Pleasant Prince will be in.

You probably know by now Eskendereya is retired to stud. Sad news for racing fans but good news that the injury is not catastrophic. Esky now gets to live the life of a king. Good for him.

A few selections for today.

In the Winter Melody Stakes at Delaware, I like the horse for the course and distance. Delaware Park has been a #5 Magicalcarpetride for the daughter of Smart Strike. Trainer Anthony Dutrow is 43% going turf to dirt. Strong move for Tony and you should get a reasonable price here. #3 Miss Match has been racing against better and appears to be the class in the race. Third choice #8 Mindy Sue has never finished out of the money in 8 trips to the post.

In the Unbridled Sidney at Chuchill Downs #2 Knockout Bertie has been knocking on the door for red-hot trainer Stephen Margolis. I think Sean Bridgmohan will get her to the wire first today. It's hard to pick against 2nd choice #5 Selva, but jockey Robby Albarado has been ice cold at Churchill so far and his record on Turf is less than stellar even in good cirmcumstances. Still, Selva comes out of the key race Bienville60k with a 2nd place finish, so maybe fortunes will turn for Robby today. #8 Candy Cane races for the first time under the tutelage of Rick Dutrow, which is always a live chance in my book.

Belmont Park brings us the G2 Dwyer Stakes for 3 year olds. #2 Drosselmeyer seems to be the one to beat, but you'll have to be willing to accept a fairly low price to back this one. Anything over 7/5 seems fair here. #5 Remand ran a good 3rd in the Bayshore at the Big A and could come home first if Drosselmeyer happens to be looking forward to the Belmont Stakes. #7 Fly Down gets a tepid nod as 3rd choice; however I find the #1 Carnivore interesting as the lone speed long shot try. Carnivore has never run fast enough to beat most in this race, but if he gets brave on the lead who knows what could happen. Play only at a huge price.

Finally hooray for Hollywood and the G2 Mervyn Leroy handicap. #1 Dakota PHONEd the last one in on the dirt at Oaklawn. Now he's back on a more familiar surface and has been running great for Jerry Hollendorfer. If all things were equal, I'd still favor #6 Rail Trip in this position who I think could demolish this field while doing the backstroke. But the 244 day layoff has me thinking Rail Trip might need a race before firing his best shot. RT may not need his best shot to win here, but the price will be short and the layoff makes him vulnerable. #3 Slew's Tiznow rounds out the top three.

That's all I got for today. Going down to Miami to move my son out later. Will be hanging out at Calder tomorrow at the Home Stretch Bar next to the Poker Room. Just shout,"Where's that Chalk Eatin' Weasel?!" if you happen to be in the neighborhood. Maybe I'll buy you a drink.

I'm off

Skip the Derby--Aim for the Preakness

That's my advice to the connections of the hardest working 3 yo colt in racing, Jackson Bend. Not that they need my advice. Nick Zito has more experience in his little toe than I have in my super-sized body when it comes to placing horses in classic races.

However, it seems to me that Jackson Bend has been chasing Eskendereya up and down the East Coast and clearly seems to be 2nd best to the talented son of Giant's Causeway. Zito implies in an interview on Bloodhorse.com http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56470/jackson-bend-in-fast-workout-at-churchill that JB will need someone to make a mistake.

I would not subject my horse to that cavalry charge unless I thought his chances of succeeding were better than depending on someone else to make an error. Rather, I would point my horse toward a race on a track with tight turns that may favor a horse that is small in stature, but perhaps more agile than his larger counterparts. A track like say.....Pimlico?

Pleasant Prince will run in the G3 Cliff's Edge Derby Trial on April 24 in a last ditch effort to get in the Derby. The winner of this race gains an automatic berth in the Derby. Not exactly the usual path to the Derby winner's circle. Owner Ken Ramsey points out the last horse to pull off the Derby Trial/Derby exacta was Tim Tam in 1958.

Looking at two stakes races from Keeneland today. First up is Race 8, the 5 1/2 furlong (turf) Giant's Causeway for fillies and mares 3 and up

This race is guaranteed to have a lot of pace with 4 need to lead types running. Therefore the logical choice will be an off the pace type and West Ocean, trained by Todd Pletcher, fits the bill perfectly. Winner by 5 lengths in the Bienville at the Fairgrounds last out the 4 yo filly has really awakened since cutting back to sprint distances. Statistic to note is rider JJ Castellano is winning at a 41% clip over the last 60 days when riding for Pletcher.

No turf sprint stakes would be complete without an entry or two from Linda Rice. She has 2 in this race each making their 2010 debuts. Ahvee's Destiny has been training at Palm Meadows in Florida and with speed sitting on the rail has to be considered dangerous. But the stronger of the two is Canadian Ballet who hasn't raced since her Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint effort. Canadian Ballet has also been training at the Florida training track. If the pace of this race didn't promise to be so torrid, this filly could easily be the top selection.

Third choice is Libor Lady. Toss her last on the main track at Santa Anita. This 5 year old mare is 7 for 11 at the distance and never out of the money. Again, only the pace keeps this one down from being a top choice.

In summary, the picks and odds needed to play.

7. West Ocean 2/1
8. Canadian Ballet 5/1
3 Libor Lady 7/1

The other race I'm covering today is the G2 Coolmore Lexington Stakes for three year olds

This race shapes up to be very competitive and a long price will be no surprise. However, I think I have been able to narrow the field down to the main contenders.

My top pick for the race is the horse breaking from pp1, Krypton. Krypton won a 7f allowance for non-winners of one other than last out in decisive fashion. Since there are no real giant killers in this race, only 1 previous G3 winner, I am not overly concerned about the lack of stakes experience here. Key stats for Kypton: Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is 25% with a positive ROI going sprint to route and the Alan Garcia/McLaughlin combination is 38% with a positive ROI over the last 60 days.

Second choice Lonesome Street comes out of a 2nd place effort in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park. The comment line shows some trouble at 7/8th. Key for Lonesome Street is the positive jockey switch to Julien Leparoux. Stats of note: Trainer Michael Maker is 30% on all-weather surfaces (+ROI) and 28% when his horses are running routes (+ROI).

The 3rd choice is the lone speed horse in the race Exhi trained by Todd Pletcher. Exhi is the winner of the Rushaway Stakes and is a sure bet to be leading at the 1/4 and 1/2 poles. The question is whether or not the others will be able to reel him in. Last time out, Lonesome Street could not make up the ground. This time may be different, or, it may not.

Summary and needed odds

1 Krypton 3/1
7 Lonesome Street 9/2
8 Exhi 5/1

Hey be sure to check out the other bloggers of the TBA. We've made it easy for you with the links on the side of the page.

And while you're there, visit the TBA facebook page as well.

Last Chance For Some Derby Hopefuls

Going into the what is realistically the last chance for some Derby hopefuls to gain the coveted graded stakes earnings they need to gain entry into the Kentucky Derby. For today, the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn will be the big draws.

First up to Lexington, Ky for the Bluegrass Stakes. The race shapes up as one of those types where we are absent the presence of any confirmed lead horses.

The 2 horse, First Dude, is the only contender with a Quirin figure suggesting a front running style (E6). However, never in his 5 career races has First Dude been on the lead in the first 2 calls.

This is important because much of the discussion this week has involved Florida Derby runner-up Pleasant Prince. But the Florida Derby had 4 of 11 entries with early speed Quirin designations. I figured the race was set up for an off the pace type which is why Pleasant Prince, at 29/1, was my top selection (It still hurts). Eventual winner, Ice Box, came from dead last to nip Pleasant Prince at the wire, so they say. Going into the race Ice Box had an Early Presser (EP) Quirin figure, but he ran an "S" style (closer) race on that day.

The whole point is that the Bluegrass Stakes sets up in such a manner that it is going to make winning much more difficult for off the pace running styles to win today. I like Pleasant Prince and consider him a solid contender, but am looking elsewhere for a top contender.

To find that contender I have to look no farther than Post Position #1 for the G3 Tampa Derby winner Odysseus. Odysseus has shown the tactical ability to run near the lead and I think that is what will be required to win the race. Odysseus also showed alot of heart in his Tampa win to come back and get Schoolyard Dreams and Super Saver at the wire.

Pleasant Prince also showed some ability to stay near a quick pace in the Florida Derby, and his nip and tuck duel down the stretch with Ice Box showed that he will not wilt under pressure. If he can stay close to the leaders today, he may yet find his way to the Winner's Circle and is my second choice in the race.

For a third selection, I'm looking for a potential longshot to pull off the upset. #7 Paddy O Prado moves to the main track after running his last 4 on grass including a win in the G3 Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park. His Quirin figure is (S3) indicating the closing style so typical of turf runners, but he was never more than half a length off the leader at the calls in his Palm Beach win. Paddy is also flattered by Dean's Kitten who finished 2nd in the Palm Beach and went on to win the G2 Lanes End at Turfway next out. Paddy has Kent Desormeaux riding him today. Kent started off the Gulfstream meet slowly but has been picking it up lately and has been a hot jockey recently. I look for Paddy to give a good account of himself today and if the top two picks falter he may be there to pick up the pieces and the win.

In summary, the picks and the odds I need to play them

#1 Odysseus 3-1
#6 Pleasant Prince 4-1
#7 Paddy O' Prado 7-1

The Arkansas Derby shapes up differently from the Bluegrass with 3 of the 9 contenders sporting early running preferences. The morning line favorite Super Saver sits on the rail and has Calvin Bo-rail riding him. He looks to be the best of the bunch who will contend for the lead at the first call. However, it is the leader at the final call the matters. I don't expect the Morning Line favorite to be the first to cross under the wire.

Of the "P" (presser) types, only Dublin appears to have the credentials to find the wire first, but a look at the comment lines tells me he may not be the choice. The comment lines are full of "weakened, "4w", "no response", "Drifted wide no bid", "Stumbled, wide no bid". You get my point. Also. a look at his last effort in the G2 Rebel shows the horse to be really gassed in the final 16th.

This leaves for us the Early Presser's (EP). Of these, Noble's Promise seems the most promising. Nobles's Promise has been racing against much better and even though this is a Grade 1 event, I get the feeling you can almost claim a little bit of class relief for the son of Cuvee. His pedigree suggests the classic distance may be too much for him, but he has shown he can handle 9 furlongs. I expect him to win today.

Of course it is a horse race, so you need a plan b and a plan c. The second choice is Northern Giant. This son of Giant's Causeway has the look of a 3 year old that may be peaking at just the right time. Northern Giant has place and show finishes in his last two Grade 2 outings and does not need to move forward much here to take the top prize.

Finally for the third contender we are going to take Uh Oh Bango. Uh Oh gets a positive rider switch to Sean Bridgmohan and is coming 2nd off the layoff. Look for him to improve upon his 3YO debut into the Rebel where he finished 4th. Uh Oh ran just off the pace for the first two calls before tiring to a 4th place finish. Given a tough assignment in his first back since December, the race should have done him some good, and he gets the prize as most likely to improve. If he lives up to that promise he may be most likely to finish first.

The contenders and required odds to play are as follows

#3 Noble's Promise 2-1
#4 Northern Giant 5-1
#5 Uh Oh Bango 7-1

For other opinions, be sure to visit the TBA home page http://www.tbablogs.com/. The information used to make these selections was obtained, in part, from Brisnet Ultimate Past Performance which can be obtained gratis from the TBA home page.

I'm Off!

Florida Million 2009

Today's the day Calder Casino and Race Course honors the Florida Thoroughbred Industry with a Saturday card featuring 8 stakes races for Florida bred horses with a total purse of $1,000,000.

Trainer Marty Wolfson must be expecting a big day as he has brought in Julien Leparoux to ride all of his entries including It's a Bird in the feature race.

The weather is perfectly sunny without a cloud in the sky meaning the races meant to be run on turf will be run on turf.

Selections and odds for today's card follow

Race 1: 1 mile 70 yards Md12500 for fillies and mares 3, 4, and 5 years old

#1 Nistelrooy of Joy 6/5--9-5
#10 Sea Hag 7/2--5/1
#7 Cruise Connection 6/1--9/1

Race 2: 5 furlongs (turf) Opt. Clm 16k/N1X for Fillies and Mares 3 year olds and up

#7 Runaway Heart 8/5--5/2
#4 Determined Gal 3/1--9/2
#9 French Dip 9/2--7/1

Race 3: 6 furlongs Clm 6250 for Fillies and Mares 3 year olds and up

#6 Unexpected Blessing 2/1--3/1
#4 Blushing Tiger 3/1--9/2
#5 Joan's Royal Dawn 7/2--5/1

Race 4: 8.5 furlongs (turf) The John Franks Juvenile Fillies Turf 100k for 2 year old registered Florida Breds

#10 D'lucci Girl 2/1--3/1
#2 Winsocki 5/2--4/1
#8 Suzanne 4/1--6/1

Race 5: 7 furlongs, The Jack Prince Juvenile 150k 2 year old registered Florida Breds

#4 Mr. Green 5/2--4/1
#7 Good To Be Seen 3/1--9/2
#6 Gesu 6/1--9/1
#1 Manny Who 6/1--9/1

Race 6: 7 furlongs, The Joe O'Farrell Juvenile 150k for Filly 2 year old registered Florida Breds

#7 Sweetlalabye 3/1--9/2
#2 Rosebud's Ridge 7/2--5/1
#4 Joanie's Catch 9/2--7/1
#1 Winey Taylor 5/1--8/1

Race 7: 8.5 furlongs (turf) The Arthur I. Appleton Juvenile Turf 100k for 2 year old registered Florida Breds

#3 Family Foundation 1/1--3/2
#9 Show the Way J 5/2--4/1

Race 8: 6 furlongs The Jack Dudley Sprint Handicap 150k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds

#8 Pashito the Che 1/1--3/1
#6 Little Nick 5/2--4/1

Race 9: 8.5 furlongs The Elmer Heubeck Distaff Handicap 200k for Fillies and Mares 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds

#6 Jessica Is Back 6/5--9/5
#9 Sweet Repent 4/1--6/1
#5 Even Road 5/1--8/1

Race 10: 9 furlongs (turf) The Bonnie Heath Turf Cup Handicap 150k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds

#8 Soldier's Dancer 6/5--9/5
#3 Pickapocket 4/1--6/1
#5 Fearless Eagle 5/1--8/1

Race 11: 9 furlongs The Carl G. Rose Classic Handicap 200k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds

#3 It's a Bird 6/5--9/5
#5 Dream Maestro 7/2--5/1
#7 Temo's Dream 6/1--9/1

Check out http://www.casetherace.com/ for full analysis of this race.

Race 12: 7 furlongs clm5000 for 3 year olds and up

#9 Tebow Go 8/5---5/2
#6 Diesel Power 3/1--9/2
#5 Sir Oso 9/2--7-1

The late pick 4 (races 7-10) looks very hittable which means no big payoff, but only a small investment required. I'm going to take a shot at hitting it cold with all my top picks. If you want spread out just a little then single the top choices in races 7 and 8 and the three contenders for 9 and 10 for only a $9 investment.

I'm Off

Breeders' Cup Aftermath and Fair Grounds Trainer Angle

Well the cup has come and gone. As always, I am left breathless by these amazingly competitive races. I've got to start saving my pennies now so the I can attend next year's edition live at Churchill Downs.

Didn't do to bad as a handicapper on the Friday card as several top picks came home first including the 9.8-1 Tapitsfly in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Had some straight winners on Saturday too, but tried to hard to find the upsets rather than let them come naturally. Have to remember that the game is not about picking winners but finding the overlay. I found that overlay in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile where #3 contender Furthest Land brought home the bacon at a juicy 21.3-1. Find one of those and your day is made. I hope you played it

Hey if the Weasel helped you prosper in any way during the Cup, show him some love and let him know.

But enough about me. The Fair Grounds has reopened for the '09-'10 season. The Weasel loves the Fair Grounds. On the opening Saturday the Weasel found Air Combat going off at 15.6-1 in the first race and Weekend Pass @ 6.1-1 in the 5th. Sweet!!

Anyone who plays Calder Race Course has to be able to deal with wet weather as Summer is the rainy season here in sunny South Florida. The management tries to schedule races for the turf, but the reality is that many if not most of them are washed off onto the main track. Thus, it has finally occurred to the thick-headed Weasel that perhaps there are some trainers laying in wait for those "off the turf" races entering horses who have never done anything more than eat a blade of grass in the expectation of getting to run on the main track.

Then it occurs to the Weasel that if trainers do, indeed, enter horses into turf races actually intending to run them only if the race comes onto the main track, that some may be better at it than others. Ya think? If one were to go back through the results chart, one may be able to discern which trainers are lurking for "off the turf" races and which are just out for the exercise. Finally, it occurs to the Weasel that this is a novel angle that he has never read of anywhere before, so perhaps there may be an edge to be found here.

Well it's too late for Calder as the rainy season has past. However, thought the Weasel, the Fair Grounds sees it's fair share of rainy weather over the Winter. Perhaps we can use this angle for the upcoming meet. And so I bring to you the results of my hours of research for your perusal and, hopefully, profit.

I went through each day's chart for the '08-'09 season looking for races that were taken off the turf. The following spreadsheet insert shows the top trainers in terms of ROI. For, after all it is ROI that counts.

First let me show you the top "off the turf" trainers.

Granted, are number of trainers that do not have a significant number of races. However, surprising to me is the prescence of Bill Mott on the list. Mr. Mott being a well-known, successful trainer, I figured his entries would be over bet. This not the case. Mott has 5 wins in 16 off turf races for a 31% success rate and 21 cents earned for every federal reserve note (FRN) laid. Caveat about Mott, catch him early in the season as his win rate dropped as the season progressed. I expect as the weather warms up North so goes Mott's better horses.

But what I'm really looking for are those lesser known trainrs with positive results i.e. Richard Scherer at 98 cents per FRN. Patrick Mouton at 68 cents per FRN.

Be careful with Steve Asmussen. Winner of 6 out of 20 for a 30% hit rate, you take a slow road to the poor house losing 42 cent per FRN as his entries are typically underlaid at Fair Grounds. Other notable trainers to avoid Tom Amoss, Alvin Sider, Steve Margolis, Keith Bourgeois, Bret Calhoun, Sam Breaux, Mark Casse, Mark Frostad and a horde of others.

The list of trainers with negative ROI's and flat out no "off turf" wins is far longer than the short list above. When confronting races off the turf stick with Mott (early), Mouton, Scherer (Richard, not Merrill), and Stall and let's make some cash.

Check out my last entry (maybe they'll ask me back again some time) at www.casetherace.com this Saturday. Just missed with a live firster last out. Maybe I'll get lucky this time.

I'm Off

Breeders' Cup Eve

Twas the day before the cup,
and all through the house
the Weasel was searching
for some picks to serve up.

As promised, I have returned to you on the eve of the Breeders' Cup and am prepared to give you my selections for this weekends championship races.

One thing is for sure, there is no shortage of opinions on these races. If you are interested in a consensus of Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance choices then follow this link http://www.tbablogs.com/BCPicks.php .

Due to the sheer number of races, commentary will be minimal to non-existant. If you want reasons, there are plenty willing to offer reasons for their opinions.

As a reminder, since I haven't mentioned this in a while, the top pick will not necessarily be the one to play. We want to play overlays. Many times this will mean playing against the top pick. I have provided my own odds levels for each selection. The first odds are what I consider to be fair odds. The second set will be the minimum odds you need to play the selection.

Friday's Races

The Breeders' Cup Marathon

#6 Mastery : 2/1---3/1
#5 Father Time: 9/2---7/1
#3 Nite Light: 5/1---8/1
#4 Cloudy's Knight: 6/1---9/1

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
#10 Tapitsfly: 3/1---9/2
#7 House of Grace: 7/2---5/1
#1 Potosina: 9/2---7/1
#4 Rose Catherine 5/1---8/1

The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

#3 Blind Luck: 2/1---3/1
#10 Negligee: 9/2---7/1
#7 Devil May Care: 5/1---8/1
#8 She Be Wild: 6/1---9/1

The Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf

#2 Forever Together: 3/1---9/2
#4 Magical Fantasy: 7/2---5/1
#6 Midday: 9/2---7/1
#3 Rutherienne: 5/1---8/1

The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

#7 Informed Decision: 5/2---4/1
#9 Ventura: 3/1---9/2
#2 Sara Louise: 6/1---9/1
#8 Seventh Street: 6/1---9/1

The Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic

#7 Music Note: 2/1---3/1
#1 Careless Jewel: 2/1---3/1
#2 Life Is Sweet: 6/1---9/1

Saturday's Races

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

#4 Pounced: 2/1---3/1
#3 Codoy: 9/2---7/1
#11 Interactif: 5/1---8/1
#10 Becky's Kitten: 6/1---9/1

The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

#7 Gotta Have Her: 3/1---9/2
#6 Cannonball: 7/2---5/1
#3 California Flag: 9/2---7/1
#10 Canadian Ballet: 5/1---8/1

The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint

#8 Captain Candyman Can: 7/2---5/1
#1 Zensational: 7/2---5/1
#3 Fatal Bullet: 9/2---7/1
#5 Gayego: 9/2--- 7/1

The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile

#6 Pulsion: 3/1---9/2
#4 Noble's Promise: 7/2---5/1
#8 Esdendereya: 9/2---7/1
#9 Aikenite: 6/1---9/1

The TVG Breeders' Cup Mile

#4 Delegator: 2/1---3/1
#1 Court Vision: 9/2---7/1
#3 Cowboy Cal: 5/1---7/1
#2 Whatsthescript: 6/1---9/1

The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

#1 Mastercraftman: 2/1---3/1
#4 Bullsbay: 9/2---7/1
#2 Furthest Land: 5/1---8/1
#5 Neko Bay: 6/1---9/1

The Emirate Airlines Breeders' Cup Turf

#6 Presious Passion: 3/1---9/2
#2 Conduit: 7/2---5/1
#5 Dar Re Mi: 9/2---7/1
#7 Spanish Moon: 5/1---8/1

The Breeders' Cup Classic

#2 Colonel John: 3/1---9/2
#8 Einstein: 7/2---5/1
#4 Zenyatta: 4/1---6/1
#7 Gio Ponti: 6/1---9/1

Hey! Check out my full analysis of Saturday's race 10 from Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. Also you will find a brief analysis of the Ladies Classic and the Classic. Note, I change my mind on the Classic after I had sent in my picks to Case the Race. I have heard really good things about Rip Van Winkle. Then I hear is very washed out after an easy gallop at Santa Anita and has a chronic foot problem to boot. I don't know how the surface change will affect his foot. I will take a good look at him in the post parade, at least as good as I am able. If I like what I see, I may change my mind again.

Good Luck

Waiting For The Cup

I don't really feel like doing the Public Handicapper races today. Does that make me a bad person? The week has been full. I really haven't had the time to get into them and do them justice. As I've said before, better not to do them at all than to be half-assed about it.

I'll make it up to you, I promise. For starters, I have the entire 13 race CRC card scoped out for you. The weather is expected to be sunny and warm so all the races scheduled for turf should actually make it to the sod today.

In addition, I will bring selections for all the Breeder's Cup races as I get them. I actually have the early entries now, but I can't see wasting all the ink, paper, and time putting any effort into them until the entries have been finalized and the post positions drawn. I think that happens on Tuesday, so I'll be working all day Wednesday and probably most of Thursday poring over racing forms and results charts.

My general game plan for the big event will be to play CRC on both days as I normally would and try to be selective and pick my spots with the Cup races. We'll see if I can resist the temptation to plunge my brains out on each race.

Reminder that my stint as a guest handicapper at http://www.casetherace.com/ continues this week with a full analysis of today's race 8 at CRC.

Calder Race Track Selections for October 31.

Race 1: 1 mile Clm6250N2L for fillies and mares 3 years old and up

#7 Cynthia's Secret
#1 Caveat Cat
#8 Dibs On Debbie
#3 Honey Of A Dream

Race 2: 6.5 fur. Clm16000N2L fillies 2 years old

#2 Grand Decision
#1 Forgiven
#3 She's A Mambo
#5 Full N Sassy

Race 3: 1 mile Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for fillies 2 years old

#3 Golden Humor
#2b Kate's Holiday
#1a Super Girlie
#7 Come Sunday

Race 4: 7.5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 21k for fillies 3, 4, and 5 years old

#7 Lady Zeig
#5 Manerbe
#8 Two Cheers
#6 Starland Queen

Race 5: 6.5 fur. Starter Alw 16000 for 3 years old and up

#6 Starship Valor
#8 Caixa Eletronica
#3 Christmas Parade

Race 6: 5 fur. MdClm 12500 for fillies and mares 3, 4, and 5 years old

#9 High Dollar Escort
#10 My Espresso
#12 Savannah Sings

Race 7: 8.5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 years old

#5 Big Joey
#7 Lion Thunder
#11 Mr. Postman
#10 Bold Tiger

Race 8: 7 fur. Clm10000b 3 years old and 4 years old and upward which have never won three races

#5 Brandy Bai
#4 Girl Band
#1 One Proud Cat
#3 My Best China

See http://www.casetherace.com/ for full analysis

Race 9: 5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 year olds

#5 Sliding In
#3 More Drama
#7 Tiger Willie
#2 Fortunate Rooster

Race 10: 5.5 fur. Clm12500N2L for 2 year olds

#3 My Good Friend
#8 Mega Party
#4 Nothing's Perfect
#6 By Your Side

Pick 4 tickets for races 7-10 brought to you by DRF's Ticketmaker and the Chalk Eating Weasel

1. 5/5/5/3 times 2
2. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/5/3
3. 5/5/3,7/3
4. 5/5/5/4,6,8
5. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/3,7/3
6. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/5/4,6,8
7. 5/5/3,7/4,6,8
8. 5/5/2/3

Total cost $25.00 for a .50 base bet

Race 11: 1 mile(Turf) Alw 21700N1X for 3 year olds and upward

#8 Regis
#1 Bandit Prince
#11 Caravel
#3 Sky Gate

Race 12: 6 fur. Starter Alw 16000 for fillies and mares 3 years old and upward.

#2 Wyatt's Women
#7 Margaret Smile
#5 Meadow Touch
#8 Suave Royalty

Race 13: 1 mile Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 year olds

#5 Forty Nine Acres
#1 Taxes Taxes Taxes
#4 Hellen's Cause
#9 Backstage Lounge

That's all for today. Good Luck and enjoy the races

Making the Case

Here it is 7:30 in the morning and I'm looking out the window to the south watching the morning clouds roll in off the ocean and hoping they aren't bring any rain for the turf course at Calder today.

Today I get to bring you 4 more races from the Public Handicappers contest so sit back, relax, and the Weasel take you through some nice competitive racing.

The first race comes from Laurel Park in Maryland. Its the 9th race on the card, The Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash a Grade 1 affair contested at 6 furlongs for 3 year olds and upward.

Vineyard Haven, the DQ'd runner up to Capt Candyman Can in the King's Bishop at Saratoga is the headliner for this race, but he will not be alone in this competitive field of 9.

The race shapes up with a lot of front running types to be vying for the early lead. If this becomes the story of this race then the set up will be perfect for the horse that can stalk from off the pace and we have such a horse in this field in #3 Ravalo.

Stalk and pounce is the modus operandi for Ravalo, and he is capable of running the triple digit figure that will be required to win this race making him the top choice over the likely favorite Vineyard Haven.

Of course, it may be the Vineyard Haven is just too good for the field. The 3 year old is working well and showing no ill effects from its shoving match with Capt Candyman Can back in August. Alan Garcia will get the call. The Godolphin Racing entry will be tough to beat.

The #6 horse, Peace Chant, is another that may benefit if the early pace is too hectic. Peace Chant is a lightly raced 6 year old with only 15 starts indicating that ol' PC has been spending a lot of time on the disabled list. In his last, the Forego-G1, Peace Chant was making a strong late bid when he got cut off and lost the big mo. The DRF comment box notes that although Peace Chant primarily raced on the West Coast, all four of his wins have come on dirt. Looks like he has a puncher's chance in this one to me.

Finally #4 Fleet Valid is one that can sit close to the early leaders and take over when the time is right. Fleet Valid has won 4 in a row at Monmouth including 2 non graded stakes events. He is another contender that is capable of posting triple digit Beyer's in this race.

So while Vineyard Haven may be the one to beat in this race, don't look for the rest of the field to roll over for him. Below are the selections in order of preference.

#3 Ravalo

#1 Vineyard Haven

#6 Peace Chant

#4 Fleet Valid

For the 9th race at Keeneland, The Lexus Raven Run G2. I just have to throw my hands up and say pick 'em. There are 16 entered, 14 will run, and it is possible to make a case for just about all of them. I'm going to have to stick with the obvious in this one.

Both the #8 Flashing and #4 Pretty Prolific are coming out of key races, so I am making them tepid 1,2 favorites here. The horse I will probably play and key exotics around will be my 3rd choice #5 Jardin.

Jardin is coming 3rd back off a layoff and trainer Thomas Albertrani is 35% with a +ROI in the last 2 years with this angle. Since I think Jardin will be something better than 9-5 in this field, I will at least have the satisfaction of having a sound statistical overlay to play. Of course in this large a field, any horse is likely to offer a reasonable price.

Finally the 4th choice will be #11 Sky Haven who is a proven syn runner for Asmussen with some nice Beyer's and Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard.

This looks like a great trifecta opportunity if you can somehow narrow the bet size down to something manageable.

The selections are

8. Flashing

4. Pretty Prolific

5. Jardin

11 Sky Haven

At 8:53 am This just in. Raining at Calder.

The 9th at Belmont is the 32nd running of The Hudson for State breds 3 and up

Finally, a race that isn't a real head scratcher

Although a New York bred, #1 Driven By Success has had some success racing in open graded company and has been dominant against the state breds making him an easy top choice.

The one NY bred that has recently had some luck against DBS is #11 Law Enforcement. Don't worry about his last in the Forego. I expect he will come back with some run in this easier spot.

The 3rd choice, #4 Legal Consent, broke poorly last out. However, he has earned a lot of money racing against his fellow state breds and has an affinity for the track and the distance.

After these 3 its anybody's guess in this race although, I suppose you could consider #9 Be Bullish who benefitted from Legal Consent's problems last out. Still, I figure Driven By Success will be the one to beat here.

1. Driven By Success

11. Law Enforcement

4. Legal Consent

9. Be Bullish

Finally, another contest for state-breds from Belmont Park the 1oth race is the 24th running of The Empire Classic for 3 and up.

This is the race Michael Maker is finally going to win one for the Weasel. There is no doubt in my mind that Future Prospect is the best bet of the 4 races if you wish to cash a ticket. That said if Future Prospect is a paltry 1-2 as he was last out, I will pass the race.

The 2nd choice is the #5 Haynesfield coming off a good off the bench effort last out he should move forward off of that race for Steve Asmussen and rider Ramon Dominguez

The 3rd choice goes to #2 Slevin. Coming 3rd off the layoff he has had 2 strong efforts and just needs a little luck here to make his first stakes score.

Finally the 4th choice will the #4 Weathered. Weathered is appreciated for his game efforts in open company which is always a plus when looking at state bred restricted races such as this one. A 50% winner, Weathered knows how to find the wire first and would not be a big surprise.

The choices

#6 Future Prospect

#5 Haynesfield

#2 Slevin

#4 Weathered.

As always, when looking at these selections, one should take into account the odds on each horse and perhaps play or key on the one that seems to offer the most value to you. If one of these picks has a particularly long price, take a good look at the horse. It is possible that I am just off-base with the selection. It is also possible that I have seen something others have missed. That is the decision you must take responsibility for.

Hey!!! Check out my selection for the 12th race for Calder Race Course today. Hopefully it will stay on the grass, but since most of the runners are more experienced on the main track, it may not make all that much difference. To check out my selection visit http://www.casetherace.com/ The analysis is really there today, I checked it out myself.

As always Good Luck with your selections in todays racing and enjoy the races.

Festival of the Sun

As I write this from my Florida room a mere few minutes from Calder Race Course the skies are sunny with the temperature at 77o. Contrast to Toronto where the temperature is a chilly 34 with Rain/Snow showers forecast.

I actually have the Nearctic and Candian International Races handicapped, but considering the current conditions, I feel that all that work is out the window into the bright Florida sunshine now. Instead, I will bring you the 11th race from Calder, the G3 Spendabuck Hcp and the Senator Ken Maddy Hdcp (G3) from Santa Anita.

As a bonus, to make up for the rainy/snowy Woodbine race, I will give you my stakes picks for the other Calder stakes on this big South Florida Racing day.

Now for race 11 from CRC

With the exception of Lady Shatzi who is making her North American debut from Peru, the horses running in this race are old friends who have frequently shared the same track.

Of this group, #9 Motovato, trained by Marty Wolfson and ridden by Eddie Castro is clearly the class of the field as the winner of 2 of the last 3 stakes he has run at Calder including a 2nd place finish behind the late Finallymadeit in the G3 Memorial Day Hdcp. I do have a race where I will try to beat Wolfson, just not this one.

The 2nd choice #10 Mambo Meister has spent most of the Summer running on grass but has also shown ability on dirt. Therefore, the surface switch should be of no consequence. Mambo Meister is a capable 4 year old who gets leading rider Manoel Cruz in the irons. Manny is definitely better on dirt than grass (a little CRC hint: I nearly always consider Cruz a bet against on turf). Mambo's last 3 have all been graded affairs up at Saratoga and Monmouth so he will definitely be feeling the class relief in this field.

The #4 Dream Maestro is getting little respect from the morning line maker at 12-1 and the DRF analysts not even getting a nod for 3rd position on the selection sheet. However the Maestro has run some good races and always seems to be hanging around in the money at the end. It may be true that Dream Maestro suffers a bit of seconditis with 9 places in 22 tries, but I don't see how you can completely discount this consistent contender. I wouldn't play him at 2-1 but 12-1 could be another story.

Finally the 4th choice is the #1 Imawildandcrazyguy who won on the slop last out. Really, this is more of a nod to the abilities of Eibar Coa who seems to dominate when he runs at Calder rather than the ability of this one time KY Derby entrant. However, Imawildandcrazyguy exhibits a lot of back class with winnings of $626,745 easily out distancing the other contenders in the field. Play only at a large price.

#9 Motovato
#10 Mambo Meister
#4 Dream Maestro
#1 Imawildandcrazyguy

Off to The Oak Tree at Santa Anita and the SKMaddyH at 6.5f.

The top choice #2 Gotta Have Her has been in the money for her last 8 and 9 of her last 10. She is 3 for 3 at this distance and has 4 for 8 winners at Santa Anita including a G2 win in the Palomar Hdcp last out. Just flat out looks like the one to beat to me.

Maybe #4 Reba Is Tops can be the one to do it. She probably needed her last, finishing 2nd in the Daisycutter at Del Mar and should move forward this time out. She will be tough to beat if she does. Joe Talamo gets the call. Joe and Reba have been a potent combo since teaming up 4 races ago with 2 firsts and 2 seconds. I expect more of the same here.

#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle (ooh that is going to make the spell checker go nuts) is the 3rd choice. She is the defending champ and is showing no indication in her recent outings of slowing down. Other than she appears to be in top form at the moment, what more is there to say here.

#5 Tuscan Evening rounds out the contender list in this top field as she returns to a distance that is certainly more to her liking. Fagettabout her last effort at 9 furlongs. This race is where she belongs.

Honestly, there is not much to choose from between these 4. If you want my advice I'd play whichever of the 4 has the longest odds and be very happy about my chances of winning

#2 Gotta Have Her
#4 Reba Is Tops
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle
#5 Tuscan Evening

Without comment here are my other Stakes pick for CRC today

Race 6 The Birdonthewire for 2 yo's 5.5 f

#8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
#5 Mr. Green
#7 Peace At Dawn
#3 Simplifying

Although I haven't been able to find it yet, you should be able to view my full analysis of this race at www.casetherace.com.

Race 7 The Florida Stallion My Dear Girl 400k for 2 yo fillies

#4 Winsockie
#6 Sweetlalabye
#1 Joanie's Catch
#5 Tillie The Tigress

Race 8 The Calder Oaks for 3yo fillies 75k

#6 Providanza
#3 Royal Card
#4 Fire Water

Race 9 The Florida Stallion In Reality for 2 yo's 400k

#6 Jackson Bend
#3 Thank U Philippe
#4 Bim Bam
#8 Allez Reef

Race 10 The Calder Derby(G3) for 3yo's 100k

#3 Sal the Barber (My pick 4 single)
#6 Grand Cash
#2 Livingston Street
#9 Pound Foolish

Race 12 The Cassidy for fillies, 2yo's 75k

#2 Sweet Like Sugar
#7 Rosebud's Ridge
#1 Lavender's Spirit
#6 Slavic Princess

Finally, just in case you're interested, my picks for the two races from Woodbine before I became aware of the conditions

Race 8 The Nearctic (G2)

#11 Jungle Wave
#1 Field Commission
#9 Hero's Reward
#4 Karakorum Elektra

Race 10 The Pattison Canadian International (G1)

#4 Just As Well
#7 Juke Box Jury
#3 Quijano
#8 Spice Route

That's it for this week. Enjoy the racing and Good Luck

North of the Border

Not much to write home about regarding yesterday's prognostications from KY Downs. But then, you can't say I didn't warn you. Those races didn't cost me any money. Hope you did better.

Now off to Toronto for the Northern Dancer-G1 and the Woodbine Mile-G1 for 3 and up.

In the Northern Dancer I think #9 Marchfield gets the nod as the 5 yo showing excellent form at this time. Also gets the home field advantage with Mark Casse and Patrich Husbands over some of the invaders from the south.

The 2nd choice is the German-bred #2 Musketier (remember Salve Germania who just got flattered by Rutherienne). Musketier has won at this distance over this very track. Apparently Musketier got caught up in a bit of pace duel in the Sword Dancer. Look for Bejarano to mete out Musketier's speed a little more judiciously.

The 3rd choice is last year's winner #6 Champs Elysees. Last year's Northern Dancer winner has yet to win in 2009 but is coming 3rd off the layoff and should be ready for a big effort. Garrett Gomez comes all the way from Cali for the ride.

The 4th and final contender is #8 Just As Well trying the distance for the first time. You can't ignore any horse on grass with Julien Leparoux in the irons. It doesnt' hurt that Just As Well ran a very good 2nd to Gio Ponti in the Arlington Million last out.

Race 10 The Woodbine Mile

This race is very competitive as one might imagine when $1,000,000 is being contested. Is than American or Canadian, I wonder? Some sort of case can be made for nearly every horse in the race. I wish I could offer some unique insight into this race, but it seems to me that the usual suspects are the standouts here.

#8 Rahy's Attorney is the top pick. Toss out his last race, a mile and 3/8ths is too much for the gelding but cutting back to a mile should be right up his alley. Rahy's Attorney will race forwardly but is not a need to lead type which will serve him well as there are a couple of other potential pace factors in the race.

The 2nd choice, and not far behind the top, is the versatile #5 Bribon. The grade 1 winner loves the distance and showed last out that he hasn't lost anything on the turf. Bribon has won 3 in a row with Alan Garcia in the irons and will be making a late run to make it 4.

The 3rd choice #9 Ventura hasn't run since April but that shouldn't be a problem for the 2008 BC Fillie and Mare Sprint Champ. Ventura has no problem coming off the bench and winning big races. She finished 2nd to Rahy's Attorney in this race last year and comes back to even the score.

The 4th pick is a bit of a stretch here, but a horse for the course can't be ignored. #10 Jungle Wave won the G2 Play King last out at Woodbine and is 3 for 3 over the track. He'll have to step up his game to beat these, but may be worth a flyer at a long price. Certainly one to watch for exotics.

That's it for this week kiddies. Let's hope I do better than I did yesterday.

Good Luck

Turfing It At KY Downs

Coming to you in two installments this week as the Public Handicapper weekend stakes will involve two race from Woodbine to be run tomorrow.

I'm kind of taking the weekend off this week but must play the Handicapper races. Actually I don't "have" to play them. Just feeling obligated to make selections for as many of the PH races as I can.

Two wrap up last week's action, three out of four ain't too bad. Might've been 4 of 4 if Gozzip Girl could've kept from stumbling over her own feet. However, that, my friends is why you don't play 2 to 5 favorites. Just sit and watch those races.

Unfortunately, the other 3 races turned out to be real chalk fests. I'd rather be 1 for 4 with an 18-1 Bullsbay than 3 for 4 with last weeks results.

Today's races come to us courtesy of Kentucky Downs, a quaint little turf course I really don't know all that much about, so keep that in mind and cut me some slack this week.

The first race is a 6 furlong affair known as the Kentucky Cup Turf Dash for 3 year olds and up. Looking at the course configuration, I would think the outside posts would be at a disadvantage here, but then last year Fort Prado managed to finish 2nd starting from the 9th post. You have to ask yourself did the outside post hinder Fort Prado from winning, enable him to overachieve, or have no real influence on the outcome one way or the other. I don't know the answer to that question.

The top choice for this race is #4 Guam Typhoon. This is strictly an angle play as Guam Typhoon is turning back from 9 furlongs to six after setting the fractions at the longer distance last 2 out at Saratoga. The caveat here is that Guam Typhoon has never raced on grass so some faith that trainer Ian Wilkes knows what he's doing here. Don't be looking for Guam Typhoon to be setting the fractions here. That is not how he has won sprints in the past. I suspect Borel will take him back off the pace and go for a big finish. But then again, I'm not very good at predicting race strategy.

I like the #9 Yankee Injunuity. Toss out his last over a yielding surface. If the footing is firm I don't see how he can miss being a factor in today's race. Be aware that the forecast for Franklin, Ky is for showers. Something to take into consideration as Yankee Injunuity sometimes seems to falter on soft courses.

The third pick is #6 Hold The Salt ridden my the 2nd all time leading wins female jockey Rosemary Homeister, Jr. Hold The Salt is 2 for 2 at the distance and is 2 for 2 at Kentucky Downs including winning last years edition of this very race.

Finally I'll give #7 Just For Keeps a shot here. Michael Maker teams up with Orlando Mojica at a 41% win rate with a positive ROI. Just For Keeps comes off the bench not having a race since April, but Maker excels as a trainer in this category as well. Just For Keeps was very competitive early this year winning his first two starts before fading badly in the Giant's Causeway at Keeneland. If he can regain his early form, he may be the price horse of the day.

The other race for today is the 1 1/2 mile Kentucky Cup Turf-G3 for 3 and up

I found this race to be a real head scratcher so take that under advisement before using anything I say here.

#2 Timeless Fashion is 9 for 5 lifetime and has never finished out of the money. This will be the strongest field this lightly raced 5 year old has faced and wouldn't be surprising at all to me if he goes all the way here

#5 My Happiness is the 2nd choice and seems recently to have been racing well behind better. Calvin Borel is in the driver's seat and maybe the combination of a lesser field and BoRail can push this won to the front at the wire.

#4 Rumor Has It is the 3rd choice on the basis of having won the race last year. That's not much to go on but its all I got in this contentious field. He has been running well lately and there aren't any "great" horses in this race. So, why not a repeat performance?

#12 Deal Making is a lightly raced 4 year old looking to make his first big score. 3 for 8 on the turf he comes 3rd off the layoff for Graham Motion.

Well that's all for Ky Downs. I'll post the Woodbine races a little later today or tomorrow morning. Until then.

Pacific Classic From Del Mar

First, to recap yesterday's races.
The 4th race was won by the lone speed angle and number 3 contender Mother Russia. Mother Russia went to the front and never looked back. She was shadowed around the oval by betting favorite and top selection Our Golden Dream and 4th choice and 9-1 betting selection Akilina.
While Akilina was saving ground all the way and rallying gamely to take 2nd, Our Golden Dream was fading to 4th down the stretch. Exclusive Scheme closed well to get up for 3rd. Although the 8 horse and 2nd selection Soave was a tasty 10-1, with Akilina at 9-1, The Weasel decided to eschew the win bet and went for the exacta with all four contender selections OGD, MR, S, and A over S and A.
The exacta paid 101.50 for 2 dollars thank you very much.
The key angles for this race turned out to be the lone early speed and the hidden key race. Akilina didn't improve enough to win the race, but she did improve enough to finish a game 2nd and complete a nice exacta.
Finally got a little back from Linda Rice.
The 9th race at Sartoga The Forego went pretty much as expected. The abundance of speed in the race became the perfect set up for the top two contenders Kodiak Kowboy and Pyro. I played my little exacta thingy again even though I wasn't very enthusiastic about the 3rd and 4th choices, and thought I would pass a win bet until Pyro started drifting up toward 4/1 nearing post time. I just got it in on time.
Both Kodiak Kowboy and Pyro started slowly from the gate with Pyro racing next to last down the backstretch. KK made his move on the turn and seemed to be fighting his way through to the wire when the seas opened up and lo and behold there was Pyro coming down the middle of the stretch. I had lost sight of Pyro and had watch the replay several times before I could even pick him out of the throng.
Pyro had more at the end than KK and went on to win by about a length. Kodiak Kowboy probably had a little bit harder route to take and finished well to get 2nd.
The key angle in this race turns out to be 2nd off the layoff into a G1 Stakes and the strong prep race showing for bin Suroor Saeed and Pyro.
In the Darly Debutante, the 2nd choice Mi Sueno proved to be clearly the best although I do predict big things for the 2nd place finisher and 4th selection Blind Luck who showed that she belongs among the best 2 year olds in the west.
Repo, the top choice, raced in good stalking position and made a bid in the stretch, but didn't have enough in fading to fifth. No excuses for Repo.
The 3rd place finisher, La Nez, made a big move forward with this race and bears taking a close look at next time out.
For this race, I stuck to my guns playing Repo to win and then dropping beneath the other contenders in the exacta. As the saying goes,"You can't win 'em all."
The key winning factor for this race would seem to be a very classy horse, Mi Sueno, coupled with the top last out Beyer figure.
And now the race you've been waiting for the G1 Pacific Classic from Del Mar.
From a race shape perspective there are 4 horses that figure to be setting what should be an honest pace at the front of the race. #9 Tres Borrachos (20-1 ml) should be striving for the lead followed in close attendance by #3 Rail Trip (4-1), #5 Mast Track (15-1), and #7 Misremembered (12-1). Therefore, the race sets up nicely for those off the pace types like #6 Colonel John (5-2), #1 Informed (10-1), and #10 Einstein (7-2).
That being said, coming out of the Hollywood Gold Cup, Informed won the G2 San Diego Handicap, Global Hunter won the G1 Eddie Read, and Bullsbay won the G1 won the G1 Whitney at Saratoga. That, my friends, is a key race, and why I believe Rail Trip should be the favorite in this race.
A multiple G1 winner as a 3 year old, #6 Colonel John has been made the morning line favorite for only his 2nd race as a 4 year old. The race certainly sets up for him and I like his come back race as one that can be built upon.
Rail Trip has lost 2 races and the horse that won those races just happens to be in this one, the #1 Informed. Informed also has 2 wins and 2 places in 4 trips around the Del Mar oval. Having shown he is capable of beating Rail Trip, I don't see how this horse can be excluded from any contender list and I make him the 3rd contender. 10-1 on the morning line seems rather generous in my eyes.
The fourth choice for the race is the battle tested campaigner #10 Einstein (7-2). I do have my doubts about Einstein. The Arlington Million had to be a disappointment for his connections, and we have a recent change in ownership. Certainly his best racing days may be behind him at 7 years of age, or is he really 6 having been bred south of the equator its all so confusing.
Considering his last performance and his advancing age, 7-2 is, IMOH, to optimistic. Still, here's hoping one of our old favorites has at least one more big effort in him.
A horse to watch in this race is Misremembered. I think as a 3 year old with the race shape being what it is, the step up may be a little too much. However, this race will be a good experience for him if he can come out of it healthy. Look for him to move forward soon if not today.
Ok, there you have it. So far its been a good week for The Chalk Eating Weasel Report. Let's hope we can squeeze one more race from that stone and make a little money today.
Good luck.

Rainy Day For Travers

Wet weather will be the order of the day for Saratoga Springs. After last weeks poor showing by yours truly, that's all I need is for the rain to wreak havoc on my selections this week.

If the rain falls as forecast, it's a pretty safe bet the Ballston Spa will come off the turf. I can't forecast who will stay in the race if it is moved to the main track.

On the grass, I was alredy going to go somewhat against the conventional wisdom using #7 Cocoa Beach under the guidance of Ramon Dominquez for bin Suroor Saeed and Godophin Stable. Cocoa Beach has shown ability on both grass and dirt. In fact, if this race is moved off the grass to the main track, Cocoa Beach, being 2 for 3 on off tracks in a field that shows no other significant main track form becomes your Pick 4 single.

The 2nd choice for the Ballston Spa on grass is the 1 horse Rutherienne ridden by Alan Garcia and trained by Christophe Clement. Rutherienne had a lot of traffic problems in her last race the G1 Diana Stakes. In 20 races, Rutherienne has finished in the money 18 times including 14 of her last fifteen all graded stakes. With that stat in mind, one has to think she'll be sniffing around the money once more. If the race goes to the main course, I dunno.

No 2 My Princess Jess, Cornelio Velasquez - Barclay Tagg, gets the nod as 3rd choice. The Princess finished 5th in the Diana should see improvement here coming 2nd off the layoff. She has won Graded at the Spa before, and she has won on soft turf before. If on the grass, the going should be to her liking.

Finally, the #3 Closeout , Albarado-Proctor, should also get some consideration here. Grade 3 winner last out she comes off a bit off a freshening but has been training well on the Turf here. The Albarado-Proctor connection is 40% in the winner's circle over the last 5 years (Thanks DRF Formulator); however, you'll have to balance that with the fact that Thomas Proctor has yet to win in 5 starts at the Spa this season.

The Ballston Spa Hdcp--G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.

On Turf
#7 Cocoa Beach
#1 Rutherienne
#2 My Princess Jess
#3 Closeout

Dirt
#7 Cocoa Beach
?????????????

The 7 furlong Ballerina Stakes shapes up to be a 2 horse race between the #2 Informed Decision and #4 Indian Blessing. The knock on Informed Decision all week has been that her performance on dirt is not quite up to her artificial surface standards. It is true that her dirt Beyer's figures are 6-10 points lower than her artificial figures, yet all she has done is win her last 5 times out including 2 Grade 1 wins a Grade 2 and a Grade 3 win.

Indian Blessing comes off a bit of a layoff having had an infection problem that kept her out of the G2 Princess Rooney here at Calder. Side note, I told you before that race she was not herself and, as it turned out, she didn't even make the trip. However, she's supposed to be all better now. It is reported by DRF that Tonya Terranova, who trains horses for Baffert when they run at Saratoga, says that Indian Blessing is all revved up and ready to go.

This just in. Races 1, 5 and 13 have been taken off the turf. Posted by Steven Crist at DRF.com

I'm going to have to give Indian Blessing the edge here as she if 2 for 2 at Saratoga. If Indian Blessing can run back to her usual self and the tendency of Informed Decision to drop off just a bit on dirt holds up, she is the one to beat.

The Ballerina, Grade 1 7f for Fillies and Mares 3 and up

Top choices
4 Indian Blessing
2 Informed Decision
1 Music Note

The rains have really muddied the Kings Bishop. Here's the way I see it.

Big Drama starts from the outside post-advantage. Big Drama turns back to his best distance after leading 8 furlongs of a 9 furlong West Va. Derby-advantage. Big Drama shows a definite pattern of winning on the turnback after running a route-advantage. Big Drama has never raced on an off-track-disadvantage.

Capt. Candyman Can is 3 for 3 at this distance-advantage. Capt. Candyman Can comes out of chasing the record breaking Quality Road managing to finish 2nd with his own personal best Beyer's figure-advantage. Capt. Candyman Can has won on an off track-advantage.

Munnings outran Rachel Alexandra for 6f in the Haskell-advantage. Munnings has finished ITM 2 times in 2 tries on off track-advantage. Munnings has run nothing but triple digit Beyer's as a 3 yo-advantage.

The above horses are the big 3 for this race. I am going to take a leap of faith and say that Big Drama can handle the off going. I think of these 3 he is likely to give the best price.

Kings Bishop, G1 7f for 3 year olds

8 Big Drama
3 Capt. Candyman Can
2 Munnings

And now for the main event the 1 1/4 mile Travers Stakes.

The only knock on the 4 Quality Road is the question of whether or not he can get the distance with only one prep off the layoff. Now you can add will he handle the off track to that list of doubts. I liked Quality Road going into the Derby. I saw his races at Gulfstream and he is an impressive specimen. I wasn't worried about the distance, and his Tomlinson number suggests he should handle the surface although you never know for sure until they actually do.

The 7 Kensei, stable mate to Rachel Alexander, is the horse Steve Asmussen refers to as Rodney Dangerfield. Asmussen has been steadily stretching him out in successive races and expects the added distance will not be a problem. Kensei is a hot horse right now and the Prado-Asmussen combination has been effective winning at a 36% clip for 28 races over 2008 and 2009 with a positive ROI.

6 Summer Bird is a proven commodity on off going with his strong Derby showing and 2nd place finish in the Haskell. In addition, he has proven that the distance will not be and issue. With plenty of speed on the front end to run at, I expect the son of Birdstone will be flying home at the end.

The Travers G1 for 3 year olds shapes up like this for me

6 Summer Bird
7 Kensei
4 Quality Road

That covers 3 of the 4 Public Handicapper races. I doubt I'll get around to the Del Mar Mile today. Here's hoping I did a better job than last week.

Good luck.

Saratoga Dreamin'

Hi folks. How ya doin'! I just flew in from Saratoga, and, boy are my arms tired. RIMSHOT!

But seriously. Got in at 1:00 am on Tuesday morning having to be at the day job that very day. Still, it was a great time even if the wagering did not go so well for yours truly. I failed to adjust to the closer bias on Friday. Saturday it was bombs away day with longshots hitting the board all over the place. Normally, not a problem. As you've probably observed if you've been following my exploits, the Weasel doesn't mind taking a price now and then. I just couldn't find the right price on Saturday.

Last weekend was my first visit to the Mecca of racing, Saratoga. Now that I've made the pilgrimage, all I can say is wow! The first thing that impressed me about the facility is the sheer size of the place. Television does not really give one a good perspective on how big the place actually is. The Weasel was also impressed by the number of betting windows that were open and how easy it was to hang out by a window to the last conceivable moment before placing a wager. Cheese and rice! At Gulfstream you have to get in line at 5 MTP and hope some old geezer isn't trying to play every trifecta combination 1 at a time to an equally geriatric teller that can't hear his own thoughts.

Today is move in day at the U. Which is also known as the University of Miami. So I will not be playing the game in all likelihood which is just as well since I was really underwhelmed with most of the Public Handicapper races for today. However, not to let my loyal public down. I came up with some selections for your perusal

The first race is the 6f Tax Free Shopping Distaff Stakes for Fillies and Mares 3 and up. Honestly, the line up for this race looks more like an Optional Claimer than a stakes race with several easy tosses such as #2 So So Devine, a 5 year old that has never run to par, #6 Espindola, a recent winner of a $5000 claiming race for non winners of 4, #8 Dell Reef, a 7 year old runner that has never even run close to par, and #11 Graceful Ginger who was claimed for 30k back in may only to be put on the shelf for 3 months.

The one horse that does stand out on the positive side is #10 Sunday In Malibu who actually seems to be getting some class relief coming into this weak field. Look for Jeremy Rose and Michael Trombetta to find the winner's circle here.

Another possible contender is the lucky #13 Miss Pauline ridden by Clinton Potts for Flint Stiles. Miss Pauline shows an interesting every other good race/bad race pattern last 4 out and is due for a good race.

The final contender for this race is the speed on the rail #1 Christina's World, a lightly raced 3 year old ridden by Gabriel Saez for Larry Jones who team up again less than an hour later at Monmouth if the forms are to be believed. There are other front running types in this race so the pace may be too much for her; however, the track has been favorable to speed and the rail so she may be worth a shot at a price.

Moving up, or is it down, the coast to Monmouth for the G3 Philip H. Iseling Stakes for 3 and up my top selection is #1 Researcher Carmouche for Bunco. Twice Researcher has run his best races 3rd off the layoff and, guess what, its 3 off time again for the 5 year old gelding. Researcher beat Ea and Dry Martini in April and looks to be the one to beat here to the Weasel.

#5 Coal Play ridden by Bravo for Zito is 2-1 ML favorite and my 2nd choice. Coal Play sports an E8 Quirin fig (meaning he's a confirmed front runner). However, every other horse in the race is an early/presser type and I don't think they'll let him run away and hide today. Coal Play has run two consecutive big Brisnet figures and shows a pattern of regressing after such a set up.

#3 Solar Flare ridden by the busy Gabriel Saez for Larry Jones is the 3rd choice. Solar Flare finished 6 lengths behind Coal Play last out but has run fast enough in the past to win here if Coal Play regresses and Researcher doesn't fire.

At Saratoga its the G1 Alabama Stakes for 3yo Fillies.

Yesterday the track was sloppy and thunderstorms are in the forecast for today. I'm guessing the going will be sloppy again today which will suit #3 Funny Moon just fine. Funny Moon, ridden by Alan Garcia for Christophe Clement, is 3 for 3 on an off track and the winner of the 1 1/4 mile Coaching Club American Oaks last out.

#5 Careless Jewel ships up from Delaware after winning the G2 Delaware Oaks and sports the highest speed figure of the bunch. If that figure is real than she will be the one to catch.

#6 Be Fair has already won the G3 Lake George this meet and did it over a sloppy Saratoga track, so she should also be considered if the rains come.

#8 Milwaukee Appeal has won some big money races, but most of them have been restricted to Canadian breds. We'll get a chance here to see just how good she is.

Finally we come to the G1 Del Mar Oaks for 3 yo fillies.

This race run on the all weather surface is being invaded, for the most part by Turf specialists.

#5 Well Monied (Rosario-Zucker) will be the one to beat and has the virtue of at least working out on the Del Mar main track.

#6 Strawberry Tart (M. Garcia-Bonde) has also been working on the main track and shows ascending speed figures, always a good sign for a 3 year old.

#9 Lexienos lures Alex Solis off last out winner Starlarks, so that ought to tell you something. Off course, Alex has been riding Lexienos too, so he knows both horses and chooses this one.

That's all for today. Its off to the U to bid my son adieu.

Good Luck

Leavin' On A Jet Plane

This will be my first physical trip to the Saratoga Race Course. Up until now I've only been there in my dreams. I already have Friday's card handicapped and am chomping at the bit for the Saturday past performances to become available. I hope they come out tomorrow so that my lap top can be left behind. My motel will not have wifi available. When the desk clerk was asked if they had wifi available in the room the response,"No, were in the mountains." When questioned about what being in the mountains had to do with internet access, I was informed that the library in town was open until 7:00.


So while I anxiously await Saturday's PP's I thought I might give a little update on the Handicapping the Handicapper project. Since the onset of this project, I have handicapped 161 races of various types. The table below shows the performance of my top 4 contenders.



The table shows that my top contender won nearly 30% of the races I handicapped. The 2nd almost 17%, 3rd 18% and 4th 14.5%. The reason each contender does not equal 161 is because there are occasionally races where I could not come up with 4, 3, or even 2 contenders I could make a legitimate case for (these races do not include any in which Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta participated).

These percentages, or probabilities of the contenders winning translates to the odds shown in the next to last column on the right. These odds indicate what my win expectancy for each contender level. The final column is my win expectancy + 50%. The extra 50% allows for an extra margin of error. Thus, the minimum odds I am able to take at this time is 7/2 and I require 9/1 for my Number 4 contender. It is easy to see that I have not been playing too many favorites to win.

In the original article, I suggested that by dividing races in categories such as Maiden Claiming, Maiden races, claiming and so on, one might be able to better refine the personal odds requirement for each type. In addition, I suggested the use of a moving average of 30 races for each type of race. Please check the archives for the original post, "Handicapping the Handicapper" for the details.

To build a quickie database to test while I was accumulating my personal data, I kept a record from races run at Calder Race Course. I discovered that 30 races were an insufficient base to work from as the odds didn't make sense in some cases. I expanded the number to 50 races, and found that at 50, the results made more sense in that the top choice of the collective betting public performed better than the 2nd, than the 3rd, than the 4th.

To date, I have not handicapped any single class of races 50 times yet. The largest category is graded stakes races with 26. This is because I have been trying to concentrate on better quality races over the Summer. In addition, I have been trying to become a little less parochial in my handicapping habits, so lack of personal time requires me to be more selective about which races I choose to handicap and play.

So for now I will continue to use the generalized table above although I think it is time to start a new one. As the number of races increases, the table becomes less responsive to my current handicapping prowess.

The 161 races yielded a total of 66 win or exacta wagers made. 42 win wagers and 70 exacta wagers on a total of 38 races. So using this method of creating a contender odds line has certainly had the desired effect of cutting the number of races played.

Of the 42 win wagers made a paltry 6 were winners for a 14.3% win rate. At an average 6.88-1 odds for winning wagers this resulted in $0.13 profit for each dollar wagered. Note this is not a $2.00 flat bet result as my wager size may vary depending on whether or not I'm including an exacta wager on the race. Also there are couple of winning wagers where the winner was obviously superior to the field and the odds sufficiently tasty that I couldn't resist and abandoned my system and played the low odds overlay (yes, there can be low odds overlays). Removing these from the database would have the effect of lowering the win rate, but the average winning odds would increase.

Surprisingly, the real money has been made playing the exactas. Of the 70 exacta wagers (2 to 6 individual exacta wagers per race) made 5 resulted in cashing a ticket for a 7.1% success rate. However, at an average return of 39.4-1 this results in a return of $2.01 for each dollar wagered. No confessions are required for this figure as all exacta wagers conform to the template of playing my overlay horse underneath the other contenders in the race. Seemingly, a very effective way of playing the races if one is able to contend with the inevitable losing streaks that are going occur in between the winners. For me the bottom line is am I showing a profit. The results here indicate that this method of setting acceptable odds is working.

A word about the exacta. I have found through experience that if my overlay horse is at odds of 5-1 or less, the payoff on the exacta is not usually worth the risk, especially if the other contenders are at lower odds. In this case, I just increase the win bet and leave out the exacta. Also, placing an exacta bet on such horses effectively lowers the odds on the overlay horse in such a way that should the horse win the extra money required for the exacta has destroyed the overlay price.

At this point, I am confident that once I am able to use odds for specific types of races, the method will really fine tune the odds I am able to accept on a race. For instance, after 26 Graded Stakes races, the required odds for the top choice is 5-1 based on a top contender success rate of 23%, but overnight stakes would require only 3-2 based on a 50% top rate after 20 races. In my opinion, this is where the real value of this exercise lays.

In conclusion, the purpose of Handicapping the Handicapper is to find an objective method of establishing an odds line for top contenders in the race. While there is still more work to be done before declaring the method successful, the interim results reported here show great promise.

A final note. It seems unlikely that I will be able to provide Public Handicapper selections for this weekend, so you're on your own.

Til Next time. Good Luck!

Bullseye for Bullsbay and The Weasel

Yesterday was a big day for The Chalk Eating Weasel Report. Here's a recap of how the day's action went down.

In the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes, the 3rd ranked contender Take The Points finally fulfilled his potential and out dueled Black Bear Island down the stretch. Financially, the race was a pass as no horse's odds ventured into the playable arena. However, there is nothing the Weasel likes more, other than cashing a ticket, than watching two of his contenders battle it out down the stretch.

In the Grade 1 Beverly D Stakes, you can't say that the Weasel did not alert you to the possibility of Dynaforce. At 7-1, Dynaforce to win was the correct play in the race. I say the "correct" play because I actually took the 8-1 Alnadana to win. Luckily, on any horse at > 5-1, I also play the win selection underneath the other win contenders yielding a nifty exacta worth $160.40 on $2.00 played. At the very least, 7-1 is nothing to sneeze at. I hope some of my readers took advantage of the value that was offered in this race.

The next race, The Arlington Million, went pretty much according to the way most people thought it would. Presious Passion went to the lead and the rest of the field was left to play catch up. To no one's great surprise, Gio Ponti proved to be the best horse in the race. If you followed my advice, this race was a pass. I was afraid Presious Passion might build up an insurmountable lead as he did in the United Nations at Monmouth, but that turned out not to be the case. Perhaps the soft ground took its toll on the front-running gelding as he began to wilt on the turn and had nothing left for the stretch run.

Finally, the day's coup de grace. Bullsbay at 18-1 was the upset winner of the Whitney. To say I was high on Bullsbay's chances would not be truthful. Still I liked his chances better than Commentator who I thought was overrated. I liked his chances better than Tizway's who figured to get used up early chasing Commentator. And I felt his last race on the plastic surface was an anomaly. Bullsbay, does show 2 wins and 4 more in the money finishes on "all weather" surfaces, but each surface is different. I don't know if he has ever shown any ability on Hollywood's surface or not. Of all the horses running, Bullsbay seemed most likely to improve off of his last effort which made him a tepid contender needing at least 9-1 and fully worthy of a wager at 18-1. I do hope you joined the Weasel in cashing that ticket.

Next week I will be at the historic Saratoga Race Track on Friday and Saturday. I will try to post Public Handicapper races for next Saturday, but I don't know at this time about the availability of a wireless connection or time to actually make the post. However, if anyone within reading distance of this would like to meet at some time during those two days, I'd love to meet you. Also if anyone ever benefits by anything I write here, I'd like to here about that as well. C'mon stroke my 'er...ego and show the Weasel some love. Who's a good Weasel? You're a good Weasel! ;=)

Until the next post. Good Luck

Arlington Million

Today is Arlington Million day. We have a highly competitive group for the Arlington Million as well as the other 3 Public Handicapper races today. Arlington Park was off the turf on Friday and the going today will likely be something less than firm.

The first race to cover is the mile and a quarter G1 Secretariat Stakes for 3 year olds. The 1A entry, Driving Snow is an early scratch from the race making the job a little easier.

The 1 Cliffy's Future has never run on Turf before and without much turf pedigree to speak of, The Cliff's Edge (Gulch), appears to be misplaced here. The other easy elimination is Hoosier Kingdom who has been tearing up the Indiana State Breds but will find the opposition here a little more accomplished.

The remaining contenders seem very evenly matched, and you can make a case for each of them. However, they can't all win so we have to take a stand somewhere and this is how I see it.

The top selection is the 8 horse Reb at 5 to 1 in the morning line that price seems pretty fair if it holds up. Winner of 3 straight including the Grade 2 American Derby last out. Julien Leparoux gets the call on this son of Stormy Atlantic, and we'll be looking for him to make a late run.

The second choice ships over off a lackluster Group 1 effort at Longchamp at a Mile and a half. The shorter distance should be to the liking of the number 9 Black Bear Island winner of a Group 2 contest back in may. Additionally, Black Bear Island should feel right at home on a soggy turf course.

The third choice is a horse I liked quite a bit earlier in the year, the 7 horse Take The Points. Although yet to show a win on the turf, the surface switch seems to have been a wake up call for the Pletcher trainee. The comment line says Take The Points hung in finishing 3rd to Battle of Hastings in the Virginia Derby. I think the rider change to Kent Desormeaux may be the difference which finally puts this underachiever over the top.

The fourth choice is the 10 horse Giant Oak. Giant Oak is the horse for course here with 2 wins in 3 tries at Arlington Park. Giant Oak had a troubled trip as the favorite last out and figures to improve position in this race with a better trip.

I think you can also make some sort of case for Proceed Bee, Laureate Conductor, Quite A Handful, and Oil Man. So if you wanted to go in that direction I wouldn't blame you.

The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
8 Reb /3-1/ 9-2
9 Black Bear Island/ 4-1 /6-1
7 Take The Points /5-1/ 8-1
10 Giant Oak/ 6-1 /9-1

The next race is the 1 and 3/16 Mile G1 Beverly D. Stakes for Fillies and Mares for 3 and older.

For this race I again go to the entry ridden by Julien Leparoux for the top choice. No I don't have a particular thing for Leparoux. I do, along with Kent Desormeaux, consider him to be among the best turf riders in North America. Something about those Acadians. In this case, I do consider the #2 Pure Clan to be the best horse in the race. Pure Clan is a multiple graded stakes winner including last years American Oaks and Leparoux always seems to get her best out of her. She has 5 wins in 8 tries over grass 2 wins in 3 attempts at the distance and is 1 for 1 over the Arlington course.

The next selection is the foreign shipper #1 Alnadana has been showing very strong recent form in some classy Group 2 and 3 races in France and England including a win last out in the Group 3 Prix Messidor. She won that race by 3 lengths and, according to the Racing Post, http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/alnadana-maisons-laffitte-france-alnadana-dominates-prix-messidor/610071/, the margin of victory could have been more.

The next selection is the #7 Dynaforce ridden by, are you ready, Kent Desormeaux. At 10-1 in the morning line, Dynaforce may be the over looked horse in the race if the ML is accurate. Dynaforce showed a nice move forward in her last race from the previous and any further improvement would put her right into contention in this spot.

For the 4th selection, I was leaning towards the 6 Tizaqueena until I learned that Alnadana is likely to contest her for the lead. Not wanting to speedy types as contenders on grass I moved to the California shipper #4 Black Mamba ridden by Garrett Gomez. If this multiple graded stakes winner can duplicate her last effort she should be a factor at the end.

The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
2 Pure Clan /3-1 /9-2
1 Alnadana/ 4-1/ 6-1
7 Dynaforce /4-1/ 6-1
4 Black Mamba /6-1 /9-1

The Main Event today is, of course, The Arlington Million Stakes-G1 1 and 1/4 miles for 3 yo and up

For this race the Weasel is going to go out on a limb and make, oh let's see, Ummm #6 Gio Ponti the favorite. Gio Ponti has won 3 consecutive G1 races making a 5 wide move last out to take the Man O War last out. Ramon Dominquez gets the call today. Ramon cost me a lot of money in, I think it was the 3rd race, last Saturday at Saratoga with his aggressive ride that the stewards chose to forgive. Maybe this week I'll have him on my side, but I doubt it.

#2 Presious Passion is another hot horse who has been toying with the competition at Monmouth. Today PP will have to survive the challenge from "cheap" speed in the form of Recapturetheglory. It looks like a mismatch, but if he can stay with PP for a 1/2, maybe it will take enough out of the front running gelding to give the rest a chance.

Next is the crowd favorite #1 Einstein who never runs a bad race and returns to his favorite surface. Einstein has never won the Million. I for one will be pulling for him to put this notch in his belt and may even bet on it if the price is right.

This field is so deep that G1 winner #5 Mr. Sidney is 10/1 in the morning line. The distance may not be his best, but is he stays at 10/1 or better this winner of 5 out of 7 on the grass would certainly be worth a look.

The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
6 Gio Ponti /2-1 /3-1
2 Presious Passion/ 9-2/ 7-1
1 Einstein /5-1/ 8-1
5 Mr. Sidney /6-1/ 9-1

Finally we move over to Saratoga, where your's truly will be in attendance this coming Friday and Saturday, for the G1 Whitney Hdcp.

#7 Commentator is the sentimental and ML Favorite, but he starts from the disadvantageous outside post, has the naturally speedy Tizway to the inside to contend with, and a much stronger field than the statebreds he beat up on last out. Commentator will have three accomplished closers chasing after him down the stretch.

The numero uno contender here is #4 Macho Again. I made the mistake of discounting Macho Again in the last race he was in that I handicapped the G1 Stephen Foster Hdcp. Having been burned once, I won't ignore him this time out. Doesn't mean I will play him, but I won't be surprised this time out

Next up will be the star-crossed #2 Asiatic Boy with 2 second place finishes in the states. Asiatic Boy will benefit from an inside post position and I expect he will be there at the end again.

The 3rd choice will be #6 Dry Martini. The 6yo gelding has been thriving since moving to Barclay Tagg's barn. Like the previous two, the pace set up should be great for him. I think, realistically, any of the three can win this race. Whoever gets the trip wins, its that close.

The 4th pick is #3 Bullsbay. Throw out his last effort over the plastic surface. Probably a notch below the top 3 picks, keep in your trifecta at the very least.

The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds/ Overlay (play odds)
4 Macho Again /7-2 /5-1
2 Asiatic Boy/ 7-2/ 5-1
6 Dry Martini /7-2/ 5-1
3 Bullsbay /6-1 /9-1

Those are the picks for the day. Hope you find them useful. Good luck

This just in. The Weasel has learned that the turf at Arlington has been rated yielding and that Recapturetheglory has been scratched from the Arlington Million. In my opinion, this tilts the pace scenario to the benefit of Pressious Passion. However we will have to watch the earlier races to see how speed holds up over the course. The odds line below reflects my change of opinion on the race.

The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
6 Gio Ponti/ 3-1/ 9-2
2 Presious Passion /3-1 /9-2
1 Einstein/ 5-1/ 8-1
5 Mr. Sidney/ 6-1 /9-1

Coming To A Spa Near You

The Chalk Eating Weasel is very happy to announce that he will be in attendance, live and in person, at the race track at Saratoga Springs, NY on August 14 and 15. I look forward to meeting any of my fellow TBA bloggers who may be in attendance or any readers that find anything I do here of value. Drop me a line and maybe we can put our heads together and take some money away from these well heeled Summer-time patrons. Now that's taxation of the rich I can support.

I am also happy to tell you that I have already made selections for the Public Handicapper races of the week. Unfortunately, three of the races are on the turf at Arlington. Normally, not a problem, but the weather for tomorrow is a little iffy with thunderstorms predicted for overnight and tomorrow morning. I will have to wait until tomorrow morning and see if the races will still be on turf and check the scratches before I make final decisions. So tune in later.

Scratches in the Lady Secret

If you've been paying attention, you have already noted that there have been some scratches in the Lady Secret. No doubt the sloppy going has something to do with this. Among the scratches is my top selection Spritely. No worries, a check the PP's of the remaining contenders shows that they have all shown an ability to handle the off going. Just slide everyone up one slot in the contender list.

An addition to the contender list is the #5 Devil House who now becomes the lone E8 horse in the race with the scratch of Spritely. I don't really know about Monmouth, but many times a sealed sloppy track at Calder gets very fast and if DH can get loose they may not catch her today.

Wow that was a big crowd getting their picture taken in the winner's circle for race 9!

One last word. While all the contenders have shown ability in off going, the 2 horse Annabil is 3 wins in 7 tries with 6 finishes in the money in the off going. Also, in race 9, the 5 horse who won didn't immediately get the lead as the 9 horse shot out of the gate and crossed the entire field to get to the rail, but he/she was 2nd down the back stretch, took over and never looked back.

This post has been powered by a frosty mint julep

Good luck

From the Spa To The Shore

Back from the simulcast room at Gulfstream where I spent the day pondering the puzzles of Saratoga. Forever Together was no puzzle in frustrating Rutherienne once again. Warrior's Reward did run better this time, as expected, but not well enough to beat Kensei in the Jim Dandy. Good day for Steve Asmussen winning the W. Va Derby then turning around for the Jim Dandy to complete the exacta. Just missed with Strawberry Tart. Since I haven't actually seen the race, I don't really know what happened to the other contenders.

Always a glutton for punishment, I have one more selection as the Public Handicapper contest spans the weekend moving down to the Jersey shore for a Haskell preliminary race the 100k Lady's Secret Stakes for fillies and mares 3 and up.

An interesting race as it seems all the best horses are starting from the difficult outside post positions. What's a poor handicapper to do? Well you can either hold your nose and pick them anyways, go inside and hope for an upset, or try a little of both.

At least the top choice is not a compromise as the Weasel likes the #6 Spritely trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by J. R. Velazquez. While Spritely sports an E8 Quirin Figure and likes to be on or near the lead, she has shown she is not a "need to lead" type which is going to serve her well with the speedy Devil House to her inside.

The 2nd choice is in the statiscally challenged outside #8 post. Jasmine Gardens has been showing good form for trainer Albertrani. She has won twice over the grounds in two tries and has shown a liking for the distance. Former Calder apprentice (no more) Paco Lopez gets the call.

The 3rd selection, #7 Ask The Moon is coming out of a nice stakes win over the course and should be on or near the lead early. Joe Bravo certainly knows his way around the track so I have to give her a chance here.

Finally, if you're shopping for a price, take a look at # 2 Annabill. This 6 yo mare is no stranger to the winner's circle having made it a respectable 18 in 45 tries. She has won a stakes event this year and showed good improvement in her 2nd race over the Monmouth oval. If you want to try your luck with this crafty veteran you're going to have to project further improvement and demand a price. What you do get for your leap of faith is a 25% winner in Elvis Trujillo and Steve DiMauro who wins Non Graded stakes at a 22% clip with a positive ROI.

I'll try to be in on the action in this race provided I'm not at our own shore watching the dog frolic in the surf.

Good Luck until next time

The 3rd choice