Today's the day Calder Casino and Race Course honors the Florida Thoroughbred Industry with a Saturday card featuring 8 stakes races for Florida bred horses with a total purse of $1,000,000.
Trainer Marty Wolfson must be expecting a big day as he has brought in Julien Leparoux to ride all of his entries including It's a Bird in the feature race.
The weather is perfectly sunny without a cloud in the sky meaning the races meant to be run on turf will be run on turf.
Selections and odds for today's card follow
Race 1: 1 mile 70 yards Md12500 for fillies and mares 3, 4, and 5 years old
#1 Nistelrooy of Joy 6/5--9-5
#10 Sea Hag 7/2--5/1
#7 Cruise Connection 6/1--9/1
Race 2: 5 furlongs (turf) Opt. Clm 16k/N1X for Fillies and Mares 3 year olds and up
#7 Runaway Heart 8/5--5/2
#4 Determined Gal 3/1--9/2
#9 French Dip 9/2--7/1
Race 3: 6 furlongs Clm 6250 for Fillies and Mares 3 year olds and up
#6 Unexpected Blessing 2/1--3/1
#4 Blushing Tiger 3/1--9/2
#5 Joan's Royal Dawn 7/2--5/1
Race 4: 8.5 furlongs (turf) The John Franks Juvenile Fillies Turf 100k for 2 year old registered Florida Breds
#10 D'lucci Girl 2/1--3/1
#2 Winsocki 5/2--4/1
#8 Suzanne 4/1--6/1
Race 5: 7 furlongs, The Jack Prince Juvenile 150k 2 year old registered Florida Breds
#4 Mr. Green 5/2--4/1
#7 Good To Be Seen 3/1--9/2
#6 Gesu 6/1--9/1
#1 Manny Who 6/1--9/1
Race 6: 7 furlongs, The Joe O'Farrell Juvenile 150k for Filly 2 year old registered Florida Breds
#7 Sweetlalabye 3/1--9/2
#2 Rosebud's Ridge 7/2--5/1
#4 Joanie's Catch 9/2--7/1
#1 Winey Taylor 5/1--8/1
Race 7: 8.5 furlongs (turf) The Arthur I. Appleton Juvenile Turf 100k for 2 year old registered Florida Breds
#3 Family Foundation 1/1--3/2
#9 Show the Way J 5/2--4/1
Race 8: 6 furlongs The Jack Dudley Sprint Handicap 150k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds
#8 Pashito the Che 1/1--3/1
#6 Little Nick 5/2--4/1
Race 9: 8.5 furlongs The Elmer Heubeck Distaff Handicap 200k for Fillies and Mares 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds
#6 Jessica Is Back 6/5--9/5
#9 Sweet Repent 4/1--6/1
#5 Even Road 5/1--8/1
Race 10: 9 furlongs (turf) The Bonnie Heath Turf Cup Handicap 150k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds
#8 Soldier's Dancer 6/5--9/5
#3 Pickapocket 4/1--6/1
#5 Fearless Eagle 5/1--8/1
Race 11: 9 furlongs The Carl G. Rose Classic Handicap 200k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds
#3 It's a Bird 6/5--9/5
#5 Dream Maestro 7/2--5/1
#7 Temo's Dream 6/1--9/1
Check out http://www.casetherace.com/ for full analysis of this race.
Race 12: 7 furlongs clm5000 for 3 year olds and up
#9 Tebow Go 8/5---5/2
#6 Diesel Power 3/1--9/2
#5 Sir Oso 9/2--7-1
The late pick 4 (races 7-10) looks very hittable which means no big payoff, but only a small investment required. I'm going to take a shot at hitting it cold with all my top picks. If you want spread out just a little then single the top choices in races 7 and 8 and the three contenders for 9 and 10 for only a $9 investment.
I'm Off
Showing posts with label gambling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gambling. Show all posts
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Breeders' Cup Aftermath and Fair Grounds Trainer Angle
Well the cup has come and gone. As always, I am left breathless by these amazingly competitive races. I've got to start saving my pennies now so the I can attend next year's edition live at Churchill Downs.
Didn't do to bad as a handicapper on the Friday card as several top picks came home first including the 9.8-1 Tapitsfly in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Had some straight winners on Saturday too, but tried to hard to find the upsets rather than let them come naturally. Have to remember that the game is not about picking winners but finding the overlay. I found that overlay in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile where #3 contender Furthest Land brought home the bacon at a juicy 21.3-1. Find one of those and your day is made. I hope you played it
Hey if the Weasel helped you prosper in any way during the Cup, show him some love and let him know.
But enough about me. The Fair Grounds has reopened for the '09-'10 season. The Weasel loves the Fair Grounds. On the opening Saturday the Weasel found Air Combat going off at 15.6-1 in the first race and Weekend Pass @ 6.1-1 in the 5th. Sweet!!
Anyone who plays Calder Race Course has to be able to deal with wet weather as Summer is the rainy season here in sunny South Florida. The management tries to schedule races for the turf, but the reality is that many if not most of them are washed off onto the main track. Thus, it has finally occurred to the thick-headed Weasel that perhaps there are some trainers laying in wait for those "off the turf" races entering horses who have never done anything more than eat a blade of grass in the expectation of getting to run on the main track.
Then it occurs to the Weasel that if trainers do, indeed, enter horses into turf races actually intending to run them only if the race comes onto the main track, that some may be better at it than others. Ya think? If one were to go back through the results chart, one may be able to discern which trainers are lurking for "off the turf" races and which are just out for the exercise. Finally, it occurs to the Weasel that this is a novel angle that he has never read of anywhere before, so perhaps there may be an edge to be found here.
Well it's too late for Calder as the rainy season has past. However, thought the Weasel, the Fair Grounds sees it's fair share of rainy weather over the Winter. Perhaps we can use this angle for the upcoming meet. And so I bring to you the results of my hours of research for your perusal and, hopefully, profit.
I went through each day's chart for the '08-'09 season looking for races that were taken off the turf. The following spreadsheet insert shows the top trainers in terms of ROI. For, after all it is ROI that counts.
First let me show you the top "off the turf" trainers.
Granted, are number of trainers that do not have a significant number of races. However, surprising to me is the prescence of Bill Mott on the list. Mr. Mott being a well-known, successful trainer, I figured his entries would be over bet. This not the case. Mott has 5 wins in 16 off turf races for a 31% success rate and 21 cents earned for every federal reserve note (FRN) laid. Caveat about Mott, catch him early in the season as his win rate dropped as the season progressed. I expect as the weather warms up North so goes Mott's better horses.
But what I'm really looking for are those lesser known trainrs with positive results i.e. Richard Scherer at 98 cents per FRN. Patrick Mouton at 68 cents per FRN.
Be careful with Steve Asmussen. Winner of 6 out of 20 for a 30% hit rate, you take a slow road to the poor house losing 42 cent per FRN as his entries are typically underlaid at Fair Grounds. Other notable trainers to avoid Tom Amoss, Alvin Sider, Steve Margolis, Keith Bourgeois, Bret Calhoun, Sam Breaux, Mark Casse, Mark Frostad and a horde of others.
The list of trainers with negative ROI's and flat out no "off turf" wins is far longer than the short list above. When confronting races off the turf stick with Mott (early), Mouton, Scherer (Richard, not Merrill), and Stall and let's make some cash.
Check out my last entry (maybe they'll ask me back again some time) at www.casetherace.com this Saturday. Just missed with a live firster last out. Maybe I'll get lucky this time.
I'm Off
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Breeders' Cup Eve
Twas the day before the cup,
and all through the house
the Weasel was searching
for some picks to serve up.
As promised, I have returned to you on the eve of the Breeders' Cup and am prepared to give you my selections for this weekends championship races.
One thing is for sure, there is no shortage of opinions on these races. If you are interested in a consensus of Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance choices then follow this link http://www.tbablogs.com/BCPicks.php .
Due to the sheer number of races, commentary will be minimal to non-existant. If you want reasons, there are plenty willing to offer reasons for their opinions.
As a reminder, since I haven't mentioned this in a while, the top pick will not necessarily be the one to play. We want to play overlays. Many times this will mean playing against the top pick. I have provided my own odds levels for each selection. The first odds are what I consider to be fair odds. The second set will be the minimum odds you need to play the selection.
Friday's Races
The Breeders' Cup Marathon
#6 Mastery : 2/1---3/1
#5 Father Time: 9/2---7/1
#3 Nite Light: 5/1---8/1
#4 Cloudy's Knight: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
#10 Tapitsfly: 3/1---9/2
#7 House of Grace: 7/2---5/1
#1 Potosina: 9/2---7/1
#4 Rose Catherine 5/1---8/1
The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
#3 Blind Luck: 2/1---3/1
#10 Negligee: 9/2---7/1
#7 Devil May Care: 5/1---8/1
#8 She Be Wild: 6/1---9/1
The Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf
#2 Forever Together: 3/1---9/2
#4 Magical Fantasy: 7/2---5/1
#6 Midday: 9/2---7/1
#3 Rutherienne: 5/1---8/1
The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
#7 Informed Decision: 5/2---4/1
#9 Ventura: 3/1---9/2
#2 Sara Louise: 6/1---9/1
#8 Seventh Street: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic
#7 Music Note: 2/1---3/1
#1 Careless Jewel: 2/1---3/1
#2 Life Is Sweet: 6/1---9/1
Saturday's Races
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
#4 Pounced: 2/1---3/1
#3 Codoy: 9/2---7/1
#11 Interactif: 5/1---8/1
#10 Becky's Kitten: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
#7 Gotta Have Her: 3/1---9/2
#6 Cannonball: 7/2---5/1
#3 California Flag: 9/2---7/1
#10 Canadian Ballet: 5/1---8/1
The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint
#8 Captain Candyman Can: 7/2---5/1
#1 Zensational: 7/2---5/1
#3 Fatal Bullet: 9/2---7/1
#5 Gayego: 9/2--- 7/1
The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile
#6 Pulsion: 3/1---9/2
#4 Noble's Promise: 7/2---5/1
#8 Esdendereya: 9/2---7/1
#9 Aikenite: 6/1---9/1
The TVG Breeders' Cup Mile
#4 Delegator: 2/1---3/1
#1 Court Vision: 9/2---7/1
#3 Cowboy Cal: 5/1---7/1
#2 Whatsthescript: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
#1 Mastercraftman: 2/1---3/1
#4 Bullsbay: 9/2---7/1
#2 Furthest Land: 5/1---8/1
#5 Neko Bay: 6/1---9/1
The Emirate Airlines Breeders' Cup Turf
#6 Presious Passion: 3/1---9/2
#2 Conduit: 7/2---5/1
#5 Dar Re Mi: 9/2---7/1
#7 Spanish Moon: 5/1---8/1
The Breeders' Cup Classic
#2 Colonel John: 3/1---9/2
#8 Einstein: 7/2---5/1
#4 Zenyatta: 4/1---6/1
#7 Gio Ponti: 6/1---9/1
Hey! Check out my full analysis of Saturday's race 10 from Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. Also you will find a brief analysis of the Ladies Classic and the Classic. Note, I change my mind on the Classic after I had sent in my picks to Case the Race. I have heard really good things about Rip Van Winkle. Then I hear is very washed out after an easy gallop at Santa Anita and has a chronic foot problem to boot. I don't know how the surface change will affect his foot. I will take a good look at him in the post parade, at least as good as I am able. If I like what I see, I may change my mind again.
Good Luck
and all through the house
the Weasel was searching
for some picks to serve up.
As promised, I have returned to you on the eve of the Breeders' Cup and am prepared to give you my selections for this weekends championship races.
One thing is for sure, there is no shortage of opinions on these races. If you are interested in a consensus of Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance choices then follow this link http://www.tbablogs.com/BCPicks.php .
Due to the sheer number of races, commentary will be minimal to non-existant. If you want reasons, there are plenty willing to offer reasons for their opinions.
As a reminder, since I haven't mentioned this in a while, the top pick will not necessarily be the one to play. We want to play overlays. Many times this will mean playing against the top pick. I have provided my own odds levels for each selection. The first odds are what I consider to be fair odds. The second set will be the minimum odds you need to play the selection.
Friday's Races
The Breeders' Cup Marathon
#6 Mastery : 2/1---3/1
#5 Father Time: 9/2---7/1
#3 Nite Light: 5/1---8/1
#4 Cloudy's Knight: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
#10 Tapitsfly: 3/1---9/2
#7 House of Grace: 7/2---5/1
#1 Potosina: 9/2---7/1
#4 Rose Catherine 5/1---8/1
The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
#3 Blind Luck: 2/1---3/1
#10 Negligee: 9/2---7/1
#7 Devil May Care: 5/1---8/1
#8 She Be Wild: 6/1---9/1
The Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf
#2 Forever Together: 3/1---9/2
#4 Magical Fantasy: 7/2---5/1
#6 Midday: 9/2---7/1
#3 Rutherienne: 5/1---8/1
The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
#7 Informed Decision: 5/2---4/1
#9 Ventura: 3/1---9/2
#2 Sara Louise: 6/1---9/1
#8 Seventh Street: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic
#7 Music Note: 2/1---3/1
#1 Careless Jewel: 2/1---3/1
#2 Life Is Sweet: 6/1---9/1
Saturday's Races
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
#4 Pounced: 2/1---3/1
#3 Codoy: 9/2---7/1
#11 Interactif: 5/1---8/1
#10 Becky's Kitten: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
#7 Gotta Have Her: 3/1---9/2
#6 Cannonball: 7/2---5/1
#3 California Flag: 9/2---7/1
#10 Canadian Ballet: 5/1---8/1
The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint
#8 Captain Candyman Can: 7/2---5/1
#1 Zensational: 7/2---5/1
#3 Fatal Bullet: 9/2---7/1
#5 Gayego: 9/2--- 7/1
The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile
#6 Pulsion: 3/1---9/2
#4 Noble's Promise: 7/2---5/1
#8 Esdendereya: 9/2---7/1
#9 Aikenite: 6/1---9/1
The TVG Breeders' Cup Mile
#4 Delegator: 2/1---3/1
#1 Court Vision: 9/2---7/1
#3 Cowboy Cal: 5/1---7/1
#2 Whatsthescript: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
#1 Mastercraftman: 2/1---3/1
#4 Bullsbay: 9/2---7/1
#2 Furthest Land: 5/1---8/1
#5 Neko Bay: 6/1---9/1
The Emirate Airlines Breeders' Cup Turf
#6 Presious Passion: 3/1---9/2
#2 Conduit: 7/2---5/1
#5 Dar Re Mi: 9/2---7/1
#7 Spanish Moon: 5/1---8/1
The Breeders' Cup Classic
#2 Colonel John: 3/1---9/2
#8 Einstein: 7/2---5/1
#4 Zenyatta: 4/1---6/1
#7 Gio Ponti: 6/1---9/1
Hey! Check out my full analysis of Saturday's race 10 from Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. Also you will find a brief analysis of the Ladies Classic and the Classic. Note, I change my mind on the Classic after I had sent in my picks to Case the Race. I have heard really good things about Rip Van Winkle. Then I hear is very washed out after an easy gallop at Santa Anita and has a chronic foot problem to boot. I don't know how the surface change will affect his foot. I will take a good look at him in the post parade, at least as good as I am able. If I like what I see, I may change my mind again.
Good Luck
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Making the Case
Here it is 7:30 in the morning and I'm looking out the window to the south watching the morning clouds roll in off the ocean and hoping they aren't bring any rain for the turf course at Calder today.
Today I get to bring you 4 more races from the Public Handicappers contest so sit back, relax, and the Weasel take you through some nice competitive racing.
The first race comes from Laurel Park in Maryland. Its the 9th race on the card, The Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash a Grade 1 affair contested at 6 furlongs for 3 year olds and upward.
Vineyard Haven, the DQ'd runner up to Capt Candyman Can in the King's Bishop at Saratoga is the headliner for this race, but he will not be alone in this competitive field of 9.
The race shapes up with a lot of front running types to be vying for the early lead. If this becomes the story of this race then the set up will be perfect for the horse that can stalk from off the pace and we have such a horse in this field in #3 Ravalo.
Stalk and pounce is the modus operandi for Ravalo, and he is capable of running the triple digit figure that will be required to win this race making him the top choice over the likely favorite Vineyard Haven.
Of course, it may be the Vineyard Haven is just too good for the field. The 3 year old is working well and showing no ill effects from its shoving match with Capt Candyman Can back in August. Alan Garcia will get the call. The Godolphin Racing entry will be tough to beat.
The #6 horse, Peace Chant, is another that may benefit if the early pace is too hectic. Peace Chant is a lightly raced 6 year old with only 15 starts indicating that ol' PC has been spending a lot of time on the disabled list. In his last, the Forego-G1, Peace Chant was making a strong late bid when he got cut off and lost the big mo. The DRF comment box notes that although Peace Chant primarily raced on the West Coast, all four of his wins have come on dirt. Looks like he has a puncher's chance in this one to me.
Finally #4 Fleet Valid is one that can sit close to the early leaders and take over when the time is right. Fleet Valid has won 4 in a row at Monmouth including 2 non graded stakes events. He is another contender that is capable of posting triple digit Beyer's in this race.
So while Vineyard Haven may be the one to beat in this race, don't look for the rest of the field to roll over for him. Below are the selections in order of preference.
#3 Ravalo
#1 Vineyard Haven
#6 Peace Chant
#4 Fleet Valid
For the 9th race at Keeneland, The Lexus Raven Run G2. I just have to throw my hands up and say pick 'em. There are 16 entered, 14 will run, and it is possible to make a case for just about all of them. I'm going to have to stick with the obvious in this one.
Both the #8 Flashing and #4 Pretty Prolific are coming out of key races, so I am making them tepid 1,2 favorites here. The horse I will probably play and key exotics around will be my 3rd choice #5 Jardin.
Jardin is coming 3rd back off a layoff and trainer Thomas Albertrani is 35% with a +ROI in the last 2 years with this angle. Since I think Jardin will be something better than 9-5 in this field, I will at least have the satisfaction of having a sound statistical overlay to play. Of course in this large a field, any horse is likely to offer a reasonable price.
Finally the 4th choice will be #11 Sky Haven who is a proven syn runner for Asmussen with some nice Beyer's and Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard.
This looks like a great trifecta opportunity if you can somehow narrow the bet size down to something manageable.
The selections are
8. Flashing
4. Pretty Prolific
5. Jardin
11 Sky Haven
At 8:53 am This just in. Raining at Calder.
The 9th at Belmont is the 32nd running of The Hudson for State breds 3 and up
Finally, a race that isn't a real head scratcher
Although a New York bred, #1 Driven By Success has had some success racing in open graded company and has been dominant against the state breds making him an easy top choice.
The one NY bred that has recently had some luck against DBS is #11 Law Enforcement. Don't worry about his last in the Forego. I expect he will come back with some run in this easier spot.
The 3rd choice, #4 Legal Consent, broke poorly last out. However, he has earned a lot of money racing against his fellow state breds and has an affinity for the track and the distance.
After these 3 its anybody's guess in this race although, I suppose you could consider #9 Be Bullish who benefitted from Legal Consent's problems last out. Still, I figure Driven By Success will be the one to beat here.
1. Driven By Success
11. Law Enforcement
4. Legal Consent
9. Be Bullish
Finally, another contest for state-breds from Belmont Park the 1oth race is the 24th running of The Empire Classic for 3 and up.
This is the race Michael Maker is finally going to win one for the Weasel. There is no doubt in my mind that Future Prospect is the best bet of the 4 races if you wish to cash a ticket. That said if Future Prospect is a paltry 1-2 as he was last out, I will pass the race.
The 2nd choice is the #5 Haynesfield coming off a good off the bench effort last out he should move forward off of that race for Steve Asmussen and rider Ramon Dominguez
The 3rd choice goes to #2 Slevin. Coming 3rd off the layoff he has had 2 strong efforts and just needs a little luck here to make his first stakes score.
Finally the 4th choice will the #4 Weathered. Weathered is appreciated for his game efforts in open company which is always a plus when looking at state bred restricted races such as this one. A 50% winner, Weathered knows how to find the wire first and would not be a big surprise.
The choices
#6 Future Prospect
#5 Haynesfield
#2 Slevin
#4 Weathered.
As always, when looking at these selections, one should take into account the odds on each horse and perhaps play or key on the one that seems to offer the most value to you. If one of these picks has a particularly long price, take a good look at the horse. It is possible that I am just off-base with the selection. It is also possible that I have seen something others have missed. That is the decision you must take responsibility for.
Hey!!! Check out my selection for the 12th race for Calder Race Course today. Hopefully it will stay on the grass, but since most of the runners are more experienced on the main track, it may not make all that much difference. To check out my selection visit http://www.casetherace.com/ The analysis is really there today, I checked it out myself.
As always Good Luck with your selections in todays racing and enjoy the races.
Today I get to bring you 4 more races from the Public Handicappers contest so sit back, relax, and the Weasel take you through some nice competitive racing.
The first race comes from Laurel Park in Maryland. Its the 9th race on the card, The Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash a Grade 1 affair contested at 6 furlongs for 3 year olds and upward.
Vineyard Haven, the DQ'd runner up to Capt Candyman Can in the King's Bishop at Saratoga is the headliner for this race, but he will not be alone in this competitive field of 9.
The race shapes up with a lot of front running types to be vying for the early lead. If this becomes the story of this race then the set up will be perfect for the horse that can stalk from off the pace and we have such a horse in this field in #3 Ravalo.
Stalk and pounce is the modus operandi for Ravalo, and he is capable of running the triple digit figure that will be required to win this race making him the top choice over the likely favorite Vineyard Haven.
Of course, it may be the Vineyard Haven is just too good for the field. The 3 year old is working well and showing no ill effects from its shoving match with Capt Candyman Can back in August. Alan Garcia will get the call. The Godolphin Racing entry will be tough to beat.
The #6 horse, Peace Chant, is another that may benefit if the early pace is too hectic. Peace Chant is a lightly raced 6 year old with only 15 starts indicating that ol' PC has been spending a lot of time on the disabled list. In his last, the Forego-G1, Peace Chant was making a strong late bid when he got cut off and lost the big mo. The DRF comment box notes that although Peace Chant primarily raced on the West Coast, all four of his wins have come on dirt. Looks like he has a puncher's chance in this one to me.
Finally #4 Fleet Valid is one that can sit close to the early leaders and take over when the time is right. Fleet Valid has won 4 in a row at Monmouth including 2 non graded stakes events. He is another contender that is capable of posting triple digit Beyer's in this race.
So while Vineyard Haven may be the one to beat in this race, don't look for the rest of the field to roll over for him. Below are the selections in order of preference.
#3 Ravalo
#1 Vineyard Haven
#6 Peace Chant
#4 Fleet Valid
For the 9th race at Keeneland, The Lexus Raven Run G2. I just have to throw my hands up and say pick 'em. There are 16 entered, 14 will run, and it is possible to make a case for just about all of them. I'm going to have to stick with the obvious in this one.
Both the #8 Flashing and #4 Pretty Prolific are coming out of key races, so I am making them tepid 1,2 favorites here. The horse I will probably play and key exotics around will be my 3rd choice #5 Jardin.
Jardin is coming 3rd back off a layoff and trainer Thomas Albertrani is 35% with a +ROI in the last 2 years with this angle. Since I think Jardin will be something better than 9-5 in this field, I will at least have the satisfaction of having a sound statistical overlay to play. Of course in this large a field, any horse is likely to offer a reasonable price.
Finally the 4th choice will be #11 Sky Haven who is a proven syn runner for Asmussen with some nice Beyer's and Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard.
This looks like a great trifecta opportunity if you can somehow narrow the bet size down to something manageable.
The selections are
8. Flashing
4. Pretty Prolific
5. Jardin
11 Sky Haven
At 8:53 am This just in. Raining at Calder.
The 9th at Belmont is the 32nd running of The Hudson for State breds 3 and up
Finally, a race that isn't a real head scratcher
Although a New York bred, #1 Driven By Success has had some success racing in open graded company and has been dominant against the state breds making him an easy top choice.
The one NY bred that has recently had some luck against DBS is #11 Law Enforcement. Don't worry about his last in the Forego. I expect he will come back with some run in this easier spot.
The 3rd choice, #4 Legal Consent, broke poorly last out. However, he has earned a lot of money racing against his fellow state breds and has an affinity for the track and the distance.
After these 3 its anybody's guess in this race although, I suppose you could consider #9 Be Bullish who benefitted from Legal Consent's problems last out. Still, I figure Driven By Success will be the one to beat here.
1. Driven By Success
11. Law Enforcement
4. Legal Consent
9. Be Bullish
Finally, another contest for state-breds from Belmont Park the 1oth race is the 24th running of The Empire Classic for 3 and up.
This is the race Michael Maker is finally going to win one for the Weasel. There is no doubt in my mind that Future Prospect is the best bet of the 4 races if you wish to cash a ticket. That said if Future Prospect is a paltry 1-2 as he was last out, I will pass the race.
The 2nd choice is the #5 Haynesfield coming off a good off the bench effort last out he should move forward off of that race for Steve Asmussen and rider Ramon Dominguez
The 3rd choice goes to #2 Slevin. Coming 3rd off the layoff he has had 2 strong efforts and just needs a little luck here to make his first stakes score.
Finally the 4th choice will the #4 Weathered. Weathered is appreciated for his game efforts in open company which is always a plus when looking at state bred restricted races such as this one. A 50% winner, Weathered knows how to find the wire first and would not be a big surprise.
The choices
#6 Future Prospect
#5 Haynesfield
#2 Slevin
#4 Weathered.
As always, when looking at these selections, one should take into account the odds on each horse and perhaps play or key on the one that seems to offer the most value to you. If one of these picks has a particularly long price, take a good look at the horse. It is possible that I am just off-base with the selection. It is also possible that I have seen something others have missed. That is the decision you must take responsibility for.
Hey!!! Check out my selection for the 12th race for Calder Race Course today. Hopefully it will stay on the grass, but since most of the runners are more experienced on the main track, it may not make all that much difference. To check out my selection visit http://www.casetherace.com/ The analysis is really there today, I checked it out myself.
As always Good Luck with your selections in todays racing and enjoy the races.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Festival of the Sun
As I write this from my Florida room a mere few minutes from Calder Race Course the skies are sunny with the temperature at 77o. Contrast to Toronto where the temperature is a chilly 34 with Rain/Snow showers forecast.
I actually have the Nearctic and Candian International Races handicapped, but considering the current conditions, I feel that all that work is out the window into the bright Florida sunshine now. Instead, I will bring you the 11th race from Calder, the G3 Spendabuck Hcp and the Senator Ken Maddy Hdcp (G3) from Santa Anita.
As a bonus, to make up for the rainy/snowy Woodbine race, I will give you my stakes picks for the other Calder stakes on this big South Florida Racing day.
Now for race 11 from CRC
With the exception of Lady Shatzi who is making her North American debut from Peru, the horses running in this race are old friends who have frequently shared the same track.
Of this group, #9 Motovato, trained by Marty Wolfson and ridden by Eddie Castro is clearly the class of the field as the winner of 2 of the last 3 stakes he has run at Calder including a 2nd place finish behind the late Finallymadeit in the G3 Memorial Day Hdcp. I do have a race where I will try to beat Wolfson, just not this one.
The 2nd choice #10 Mambo Meister has spent most of the Summer running on grass but has also shown ability on dirt. Therefore, the surface switch should be of no consequence. Mambo Meister is a capable 4 year old who gets leading rider Manoel Cruz in the irons. Manny is definitely better on dirt than grass (a little CRC hint: I nearly always consider Cruz a bet against on turf). Mambo's last 3 have all been graded affairs up at Saratoga and Monmouth so he will definitely be feeling the class relief in this field.
The #4 Dream Maestro is getting little respect from the morning line maker at 12-1 and the DRF analysts not even getting a nod for 3rd position on the selection sheet. However the Maestro has run some good races and always seems to be hanging around in the money at the end. It may be true that Dream Maestro suffers a bit of seconditis with 9 places in 22 tries, but I don't see how you can completely discount this consistent contender. I wouldn't play him at 2-1 but 12-1 could be another story.
Finally the 4th choice is the #1 Imawildandcrazyguy who won on the slop last out. Really, this is more of a nod to the abilities of Eibar Coa who seems to dominate when he runs at Calder rather than the ability of this one time KY Derby entrant. However, Imawildandcrazyguy exhibits a lot of back class with winnings of $626,745 easily out distancing the other contenders in the field. Play only at a large price.
#9 Motovato
#10 Mambo Meister
#4 Dream Maestro
#1 Imawildandcrazyguy
Off to The Oak Tree at Santa Anita and the SKMaddyH at 6.5f.
The top choice #2 Gotta Have Her has been in the money for her last 8 and 9 of her last 10. She is 3 for 3 at this distance and has 4 for 8 winners at Santa Anita including a G2 win in the Palomar Hdcp last out. Just flat out looks like the one to beat to me.
Maybe #4 Reba Is Tops can be the one to do it. She probably needed her last, finishing 2nd in the Daisycutter at Del Mar and should move forward this time out. She will be tough to beat if she does. Joe Talamo gets the call. Joe and Reba have been a potent combo since teaming up 4 races ago with 2 firsts and 2 seconds. I expect more of the same here.
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle (ooh that is going to make the spell checker go nuts) is the 3rd choice. She is the defending champ and is showing no indication in her recent outings of slowing down. Other than she appears to be in top form at the moment, what more is there to say here.
#5 Tuscan Evening rounds out the contender list in this top field as she returns to a distance that is certainly more to her liking. Fagettabout her last effort at 9 furlongs. This race is where she belongs.
Honestly, there is not much to choose from between these 4. If you want my advice I'd play whichever of the 4 has the longest odds and be very happy about my chances of winning
#2 Gotta Have Her
#4 Reba Is Tops
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle
#5 Tuscan Evening
Without comment here are my other Stakes pick for CRC today
Race 6 The Birdonthewire for 2 yo's 5.5 f
#8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
#5 Mr. Green
#7 Peace At Dawn
#3 Simplifying
Although I haven't been able to find it yet, you should be able to view my full analysis of this race at www.casetherace.com.
Race 7 The Florida Stallion My Dear Girl 400k for 2 yo fillies
#4 Winsockie
#6 Sweetlalabye
#1 Joanie's Catch
#5 Tillie The Tigress
Race 8 The Calder Oaks for 3yo fillies 75k
#6 Providanza
#3 Royal Card
#4 Fire Water
Race 9 The Florida Stallion In Reality for 2 yo's 400k
#6 Jackson Bend
#3 Thank U Philippe
#4 Bim Bam
#8 Allez Reef
Race 10 The Calder Derby(G3) for 3yo's 100k
#3 Sal the Barber (My pick 4 single)
#6 Grand Cash
#2 Livingston Street
#9 Pound Foolish
Race 12 The Cassidy for fillies, 2yo's 75k
#2 Sweet Like Sugar
#7 Rosebud's Ridge
#1 Lavender's Spirit
#6 Slavic Princess
Finally, just in case you're interested, my picks for the two races from Woodbine before I became aware of the conditions
Race 8 The Nearctic (G2)
#11 Jungle Wave
#1 Field Commission
#9 Hero's Reward
#4 Karakorum Elektra
Race 10 The Pattison Canadian International (G1)
#4 Just As Well
#7 Juke Box Jury
#3 Quijano
#8 Spice Route
That's it for this week. Enjoy the racing and Good Luck
I actually have the Nearctic and Candian International Races handicapped, but considering the current conditions, I feel that all that work is out the window into the bright Florida sunshine now. Instead, I will bring you the 11th race from Calder, the G3 Spendabuck Hcp and the Senator Ken Maddy Hdcp (G3) from Santa Anita.
As a bonus, to make up for the rainy/snowy Woodbine race, I will give you my stakes picks for the other Calder stakes on this big South Florida Racing day.
Now for race 11 from CRC
With the exception of Lady Shatzi who is making her North American debut from Peru, the horses running in this race are old friends who have frequently shared the same track.
Of this group, #9 Motovato, trained by Marty Wolfson and ridden by Eddie Castro is clearly the class of the field as the winner of 2 of the last 3 stakes he has run at Calder including a 2nd place finish behind the late Finallymadeit in the G3 Memorial Day Hdcp. I do have a race where I will try to beat Wolfson, just not this one.
The 2nd choice #10 Mambo Meister has spent most of the Summer running on grass but has also shown ability on dirt. Therefore, the surface switch should be of no consequence. Mambo Meister is a capable 4 year old who gets leading rider Manoel Cruz in the irons. Manny is definitely better on dirt than grass (a little CRC hint: I nearly always consider Cruz a bet against on turf). Mambo's last 3 have all been graded affairs up at Saratoga and Monmouth so he will definitely be feeling the class relief in this field.
The #4 Dream Maestro is getting little respect from the morning line maker at 12-1 and the DRF analysts not even getting a nod for 3rd position on the selection sheet. However the Maestro has run some good races and always seems to be hanging around in the money at the end. It may be true that Dream Maestro suffers a bit of seconditis with 9 places in 22 tries, but I don't see how you can completely discount this consistent contender. I wouldn't play him at 2-1 but 12-1 could be another story.
Finally the 4th choice is the #1 Imawildandcrazyguy who won on the slop last out. Really, this is more of a nod to the abilities of Eibar Coa who seems to dominate when he runs at Calder rather than the ability of this one time KY Derby entrant. However, Imawildandcrazyguy exhibits a lot of back class with winnings of $626,745 easily out distancing the other contenders in the field. Play only at a large price.
#9 Motovato
#10 Mambo Meister
#4 Dream Maestro
#1 Imawildandcrazyguy
Off to The Oak Tree at Santa Anita and the SKMaddyH at 6.5f.
The top choice #2 Gotta Have Her has been in the money for her last 8 and 9 of her last 10. She is 3 for 3 at this distance and has 4 for 8 winners at Santa Anita including a G2 win in the Palomar Hdcp last out. Just flat out looks like the one to beat to me.
Maybe #4 Reba Is Tops can be the one to do it. She probably needed her last, finishing 2nd in the Daisycutter at Del Mar and should move forward this time out. She will be tough to beat if she does. Joe Talamo gets the call. Joe and Reba have been a potent combo since teaming up 4 races ago with 2 firsts and 2 seconds. I expect more of the same here.
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle (ooh that is going to make the spell checker go nuts) is the 3rd choice. She is the defending champ and is showing no indication in her recent outings of slowing down. Other than she appears to be in top form at the moment, what more is there to say here.
#5 Tuscan Evening rounds out the contender list in this top field as she returns to a distance that is certainly more to her liking. Fagettabout her last effort at 9 furlongs. This race is where she belongs.
Honestly, there is not much to choose from between these 4. If you want my advice I'd play whichever of the 4 has the longest odds and be very happy about my chances of winning
#2 Gotta Have Her
#4 Reba Is Tops
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle
#5 Tuscan Evening
Without comment here are my other Stakes pick for CRC today
Race 6 The Birdonthewire for 2 yo's 5.5 f
#8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
#5 Mr. Green
#7 Peace At Dawn
#3 Simplifying
Although I haven't been able to find it yet, you should be able to view my full analysis of this race at www.casetherace.com.
Race 7 The Florida Stallion My Dear Girl 400k for 2 yo fillies
#4 Winsockie
#6 Sweetlalabye
#1 Joanie's Catch
#5 Tillie The Tigress
Race 8 The Calder Oaks for 3yo fillies 75k
#6 Providanza
#3 Royal Card
#4 Fire Water
Race 9 The Florida Stallion In Reality for 2 yo's 400k
#6 Jackson Bend
#3 Thank U Philippe
#4 Bim Bam
#8 Allez Reef
Race 10 The Calder Derby(G3) for 3yo's 100k
#3 Sal the Barber (My pick 4 single)
#6 Grand Cash
#2 Livingston Street
#9 Pound Foolish
Race 12 The Cassidy for fillies, 2yo's 75k
#2 Sweet Like Sugar
#7 Rosebud's Ridge
#1 Lavender's Spirit
#6 Slavic Princess
Finally, just in case you're interested, my picks for the two races from Woodbine before I became aware of the conditions
Race 8 The Nearctic (G2)
#11 Jungle Wave
#1 Field Commission
#9 Hero's Reward
#4 Karakorum Elektra
Race 10 The Pattison Canadian International (G1)
#4 Just As Well
#7 Juke Box Jury
#3 Quijano
#8 Spice Route
That's it for this week. Enjoy the racing and Good Luck
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Breeder's Cup Scramble
Happy to be back in the saddle this week. Sorry about lack of posts last two weekends but sometimes personal and professional obligations just get in the way. I'd rather not do something at all than do it half-assed. After all, we've all got to have priorities.
Realistically, today is the last weekend for Breeder's Cup entries and wannabes to show their stuff, get tuned up for the big races, or just plain find out if they can run with the big dogs. With that thought in mind, Public Handicapper has 2 races from Keeneland and 2 from Santa Anita all of which have implications for the upcoming Breeder's Cup races now less than a month away.
The first race open for discussion is race 8 from Keeneland, The Dixiana Breeders' Futurity for 2 year olds contested at a mile and sixteenth.
I love 2 year old racing, which is a good thing as I get my fair share of it here in South Florida over the summer. Now we've moved from those ridiculous 2f affairs of early April to some real racing distances.
Two year olds are still learning to race and one thing I like to look for as the babies stretch out is those that look as if they get it rather than those which just break from the gate running all out until they can't go no more.
One horse in this race which certainly meets the aforementioned criterion is the #2 Backtalk trained by Thomas Amoss. Back Talk is already a multiple graded stakes winner and I expect him to bounce back after a wide trip in the Hopeful Stakes last out.
One knock against Backtalk we be how well he will take to the surface change. However the Oct. 5 6f work out at a respectable 1:12 4/5 tells me that the surface will not be an issue.
The 2nd choice for this race has yet to break his maiden. I suppose you could say he's a multiple graded stakes runner up. Those Beyer's figures look really nice and Lookin At Lucky has done nothing but flatter #7 Make Music for Me by winning the G1 Norfolk last Sunday at Santa Anita. Make Music for Me is another 2 yo that has shown some ability to hold his powder. Now if he can just get up to the line in time we may see some real fireworks.
The 3rd choice has merely won a maiden race at Saratoga and has to start from the outside post to boot. But if anyone can figure out a way to overcome a race course obstacle it will be Julien Leparoux on board #14 Stately Victor. Stately Victor is trained by Michael Maker.
Maker is a trainer that doesn't get as much press as others. He simply goes quietly about his business winning at a 25% clip year after year.
Stately Victor scored his maiden win at today's distance over the Saratoga grass posting an 80 Beyer in the process. Word is that good turf form usually translates well to poly form so the surface switch is not nearly as much a concern as the post. Look for Stately Victor at least somewhere underneath in the exotics if not in the winner's circle.
The fourth choice is the undefeated #1 Dixie Band. One reason Wayne Catalano is such a winner is he has a knack for placing his charges in races they can win, and Dixie Band has been no exception.
If there is any way to knock an unbeaten horse, the DRF has tried to do so in their closer look comment that the fillies ran faster in a later race on the same card as his last outing. You may take the comment for what its worth. Last time I looked there weren't any fillies running in the race and fillies seem to have been making it a habit of beating their brethren lately.
Another horse that may be live here, but I don't like the short break (14 days) is #6 Noble's Promise.
Top Choices
#2 Backtalk
#7 Make Music for Me
#14 Stately Victor
#1 Dixie Band
The next race to look at is...the next race at Keeneland or race 9 The Shadwell Turf Mile (G1).
As of this writing the Turf Course is soft and #1 Yorktown and #3 Wise River are scratched.
The soft going will be right up the top choice's alley the #2 Mr. Sidney. Mr. Sidney is 4 for 4 at this distance. Forget about the Arlington Million. Mr. Sidney was out of his element there. Mr. Sidney has won the G1 Maker's Mark Mile here at Keeneland and the G2 Firecracker at Churchill Downs over yielding courses so he definitely has the credentials for win here.
However, Mr Sidney is not a "stone cold lock" in here because there is another horse running that has had a terrific Summer. Long time readers of the report may recall the hunch play from Gulfstream Park way back at the beginning of the year with Justenuffhumor. Well, it turns out you could've ridden that hunch all year long as Justenuffhumor has done nothing but get better and win since January. Now he returns to the site of his only defeat.
Justenuffhumor has improved his Beyer every time he has raced (54, 86, 91, 94, 99, 103, 106). This streak can't go on forever. Sooner or later he has to have traffic problems, not like a surface, or just plain have an off day. I'm going to bet that today is that day. Still, he remains the 2nd choice #7 Justenuffhumor.
The third choice is no stranger to winning on soft grass. #5 Battle of Hastings has had a pretty good Summer himself and surprisingly to me is not a bad miler in his own right although I still believe that more distance suits him better.
Finally the fourth choice is strictly an angle play. #9 Court Vision is making his first start for Richard Dutrow. You can think what you like about Dick, but whether he does it honestly or not, horses that start first time out for him win 30% of the time. So don't ignore this one.
Choices
#2 Mr. Sidney
#7 Justenuffhumor
#5 Battle of Hastings
#9 Court Vision
Now moving on to the 6th race at Santa Anita the 24th running of The Oak Tree Mile (G2).
The top choice for this race has the tactical speed needed to either go to the lead or sit just of the pace as tactics dictate, is 2 for 2 at the distance and is coming out of two tough Saratoga races against 3 yo phenom Justenuffhumor. #9 Cowboy Cal gets the call as the top choice here. Garrett Gomez gets the call and with the recent form Cowboy Cal has been showing I think he is going to be tough to beat in here.
There are a few others that might get to the wire first and the 2nd choice for that honor would be #4 Global Hunter. Global Hunter turns back to a better distance after running 8th in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Looked to me like he never really got into that race. I prefer to look at the two races sandwiched in between the two 10 furlong debacles to get a better idea of the Hunter's ability at a mile. Global Hunter can win this race and may give a decent price in the process.
Another kinda sneaky horse in here is the #10 Whatsthescript coming in fresh for John Sadler who is 25% with a +ROI for horses off for 61-180 days. In case you think this may be too tough a spot to comeback in I will point out that Whatsthescript finished 3rd behind Goldikova and Kip Deville in last year's BC Mile after a similar layoff. Whatsthescript is 4 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 on the SA turf and should feel right at home here.
Finally I just have to throw in a tepid 4th choice here, #7 Monterrey Jazz. Monterrey Jazz clearly did not take to the Del Mar turf after a good Hollywood meet. In addition, the Winter Santa Anita meet was nothing to write home about either. However, MJ has run well here in the past and gets a positive jockey change in the person of Hall of Famer Mike Smith. Its a long shot and chances are MJ will run out of gas again, but then again...
Choices
#9 Cowboy Cal
#4 Global Hunter
#10 Whatsthescript
#7 Monterrey Jazz
Ok, I'm running out of steam here, good thing there is only one more to go. The 7th race from Santa Anita The Goodwood (G1) for 3 and up
I love it when the connections take a horse out of his element, like running on turf a race before a big one such as this because it helps to darken the form just enough to take less savvy players off him. Such is the case with my top pick here, #2 Tiago.
Tiago comes into this race fresh with only his 2nd race since February. With regular rider Mike Smith on board look for Tiago to be sweeping up wide and late (does Smith know any other way to ride?).
Tiago is 8 times ITM with 4 wins in 8 tries at the distance and has won over 1.5 million at Santa Anita. Look for him to add to that total today.
The 2nd choice is #4 Colonel John who had a terrible trip in the Pacific Classic. Look for the Colonel to improve on that effort with some better luck today.
The question about the 3rd choice #10 Mine That Bird in my mind is whether or not he is legit or merely a flash in the pan. We'll find out a lot about that today. The Bird has been working well over the course and I understand Woolley is happy with the way he has been running.
The Bird also gets reunited with his Derby rider Calvin Borel. However, Cali is a long way from Kentucky and the riding styles on the cushion are not the same as at Churchill. I'm not sure Calvin will make the adjustment.
Finally, I have to throw in Tres Borrachos as the 4th. If there was any other speed in this race, Tres would not get mentioned; however, this is the only horse in this race that has shown any desire to show the way. Joe Talamo knows how to ride so don't be shocked if today is the day Tres Borrachos wires the field.
Choices
#2 Tiago
#4 Colonel John
#10 Mine That Bird
#5 Tres Borrachos
By the way, commencing next week and continuing for a total of 4 weeks I will be a guest commentator for Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. I will choose one race on the Saturday card for Calder Race Course and offer my own unique perspective on the race. I'm really looking forward to the opportunity to perhaps shed some light on the racing at my home track.
Until the next post. Good luck
Realistically, today is the last weekend for Breeder's Cup entries and wannabes to show their stuff, get tuned up for the big races, or just plain find out if they can run with the big dogs. With that thought in mind, Public Handicapper has 2 races from Keeneland and 2 from Santa Anita all of which have implications for the upcoming Breeder's Cup races now less than a month away.
The first race open for discussion is race 8 from Keeneland, The Dixiana Breeders' Futurity for 2 year olds contested at a mile and sixteenth.
I love 2 year old racing, which is a good thing as I get my fair share of it here in South Florida over the summer. Now we've moved from those ridiculous 2f affairs of early April to some real racing distances.
Two year olds are still learning to race and one thing I like to look for as the babies stretch out is those that look as if they get it rather than those which just break from the gate running all out until they can't go no more.
One horse in this race which certainly meets the aforementioned criterion is the #2 Backtalk trained by Thomas Amoss. Back Talk is already a multiple graded stakes winner and I expect him to bounce back after a wide trip in the Hopeful Stakes last out.
One knock against Backtalk we be how well he will take to the surface change. However the Oct. 5 6f work out at a respectable 1:12 4/5 tells me that the surface will not be an issue.
The 2nd choice for this race has yet to break his maiden. I suppose you could say he's a multiple graded stakes runner up. Those Beyer's figures look really nice and Lookin At Lucky has done nothing but flatter #7 Make Music for Me by winning the G1 Norfolk last Sunday at Santa Anita. Make Music for Me is another 2 yo that has shown some ability to hold his powder. Now if he can just get up to the line in time we may see some real fireworks.
The 3rd choice has merely won a maiden race at Saratoga and has to start from the outside post to boot. But if anyone can figure out a way to overcome a race course obstacle it will be Julien Leparoux on board #14 Stately Victor. Stately Victor is trained by Michael Maker.
Maker is a trainer that doesn't get as much press as others. He simply goes quietly about his business winning at a 25% clip year after year.
Stately Victor scored his maiden win at today's distance over the Saratoga grass posting an 80 Beyer in the process. Word is that good turf form usually translates well to poly form so the surface switch is not nearly as much a concern as the post. Look for Stately Victor at least somewhere underneath in the exotics if not in the winner's circle.
The fourth choice is the undefeated #1 Dixie Band. One reason Wayne Catalano is such a winner is he has a knack for placing his charges in races they can win, and Dixie Band has been no exception.
If there is any way to knock an unbeaten horse, the DRF has tried to do so in their closer look comment that the fillies ran faster in a later race on the same card as his last outing. You may take the comment for what its worth. Last time I looked there weren't any fillies running in the race and fillies seem to have been making it a habit of beating their brethren lately.
Another horse that may be live here, but I don't like the short break (14 days) is #6 Noble's Promise.
Top Choices
#2 Backtalk
#7 Make Music for Me
#14 Stately Victor
#1 Dixie Band
The next race to look at is...the next race at Keeneland or race 9 The Shadwell Turf Mile (G1).
As of this writing the Turf Course is soft and #1 Yorktown and #3 Wise River are scratched.
The soft going will be right up the top choice's alley the #2 Mr. Sidney. Mr. Sidney is 4 for 4 at this distance. Forget about the Arlington Million. Mr. Sidney was out of his element there. Mr. Sidney has won the G1 Maker's Mark Mile here at Keeneland and the G2 Firecracker at Churchill Downs over yielding courses so he definitely has the credentials for win here.
However, Mr Sidney is not a "stone cold lock" in here because there is another horse running that has had a terrific Summer. Long time readers of the report may recall the hunch play from Gulfstream Park way back at the beginning of the year with Justenuffhumor. Well, it turns out you could've ridden that hunch all year long as Justenuffhumor has done nothing but get better and win since January. Now he returns to the site of his only defeat.
Justenuffhumor has improved his Beyer every time he has raced (54, 86, 91, 94, 99, 103, 106). This streak can't go on forever. Sooner or later he has to have traffic problems, not like a surface, or just plain have an off day. I'm going to bet that today is that day. Still, he remains the 2nd choice #7 Justenuffhumor.
The third choice is no stranger to winning on soft grass. #5 Battle of Hastings has had a pretty good Summer himself and surprisingly to me is not a bad miler in his own right although I still believe that more distance suits him better.
Finally the fourth choice is strictly an angle play. #9 Court Vision is making his first start for Richard Dutrow. You can think what you like about Dick, but whether he does it honestly or not, horses that start first time out for him win 30% of the time. So don't ignore this one.
Choices
#2 Mr. Sidney
#7 Justenuffhumor
#5 Battle of Hastings
#9 Court Vision
Now moving on to the 6th race at Santa Anita the 24th running of The Oak Tree Mile (G2).
The top choice for this race has the tactical speed needed to either go to the lead or sit just of the pace as tactics dictate, is 2 for 2 at the distance and is coming out of two tough Saratoga races against 3 yo phenom Justenuffhumor. #9 Cowboy Cal gets the call as the top choice here. Garrett Gomez gets the call and with the recent form Cowboy Cal has been showing I think he is going to be tough to beat in here.
There are a few others that might get to the wire first and the 2nd choice for that honor would be #4 Global Hunter. Global Hunter turns back to a better distance after running 8th in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Looked to me like he never really got into that race. I prefer to look at the two races sandwiched in between the two 10 furlong debacles to get a better idea of the Hunter's ability at a mile. Global Hunter can win this race and may give a decent price in the process.
Another kinda sneaky horse in here is the #10 Whatsthescript coming in fresh for John Sadler who is 25% with a +ROI for horses off for 61-180 days. In case you think this may be too tough a spot to comeback in I will point out that Whatsthescript finished 3rd behind Goldikova and Kip Deville in last year's BC Mile after a similar layoff. Whatsthescript is 4 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 on the SA turf and should feel right at home here.
Finally I just have to throw in a tepid 4th choice here, #7 Monterrey Jazz. Monterrey Jazz clearly did not take to the Del Mar turf after a good Hollywood meet. In addition, the Winter Santa Anita meet was nothing to write home about either. However, MJ has run well here in the past and gets a positive jockey change in the person of Hall of Famer Mike Smith. Its a long shot and chances are MJ will run out of gas again, but then again...
Choices
#9 Cowboy Cal
#4 Global Hunter
#10 Whatsthescript
#7 Monterrey Jazz
Ok, I'm running out of steam here, good thing there is only one more to go. The 7th race from Santa Anita The Goodwood (G1) for 3 and up
I love it when the connections take a horse out of his element, like running on turf a race before a big one such as this because it helps to darken the form just enough to take less savvy players off him. Such is the case with my top pick here, #2 Tiago.
Tiago comes into this race fresh with only his 2nd race since February. With regular rider Mike Smith on board look for Tiago to be sweeping up wide and late (does Smith know any other way to ride?).
Tiago is 8 times ITM with 4 wins in 8 tries at the distance and has won over 1.5 million at Santa Anita. Look for him to add to that total today.
The 2nd choice is #4 Colonel John who had a terrible trip in the Pacific Classic. Look for the Colonel to improve on that effort with some better luck today.
The question about the 3rd choice #10 Mine That Bird in my mind is whether or not he is legit or merely a flash in the pan. We'll find out a lot about that today. The Bird has been working well over the course and I understand Woolley is happy with the way he has been running.
The Bird also gets reunited with his Derby rider Calvin Borel. However, Cali is a long way from Kentucky and the riding styles on the cushion are not the same as at Churchill. I'm not sure Calvin will make the adjustment.
Finally, I have to throw in Tres Borrachos as the 4th. If there was any other speed in this race, Tres would not get mentioned; however, this is the only horse in this race that has shown any desire to show the way. Joe Talamo knows how to ride so don't be shocked if today is the day Tres Borrachos wires the field.
Choices
#2 Tiago
#4 Colonel John
#10 Mine That Bird
#5 Tres Borrachos
By the way, commencing next week and continuing for a total of 4 weeks I will be a guest commentator for Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. I will choose one race on the Saturday card for Calder Race Course and offer my own unique perspective on the race. I'm really looking forward to the opportunity to perhaps shed some light on the racing at my home track.
Until the next post. Good luck
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Bullseye for Bullsbay and The Weasel
Yesterday was a big day for The Chalk Eating Weasel Report. Here's a recap of how the day's action went down.
In the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes, the 3rd ranked contender Take The Points finally fulfilled his potential and out dueled Black Bear Island down the stretch. Financially, the race was a pass as no horse's odds ventured into the playable arena. However, there is nothing the Weasel likes more, other than cashing a ticket, than watching two of his contenders battle it out down the stretch.
In the Grade 1 Beverly D Stakes, you can't say that the Weasel did not alert you to the possibility of Dynaforce. At 7-1, Dynaforce to win was the correct play in the race. I say the "correct" play because I actually took the 8-1 Alnadana to win. Luckily, on any horse at > 5-1, I also play the win selection underneath the other win contenders yielding a nifty exacta worth $160.40 on $2.00 played. At the very least, 7-1 is nothing to sneeze at. I hope some of my readers took advantage of the value that was offered in this race.
The next race, The Arlington Million, went pretty much according to the way most people thought it would. Presious Passion went to the lead and the rest of the field was left to play catch up. To no one's great surprise, Gio Ponti proved to be the best horse in the race. If you followed my advice, this race was a pass. I was afraid Presious Passion might build up an insurmountable lead as he did in the United Nations at Monmouth, but that turned out not to be the case. Perhaps the soft ground took its toll on the front-running gelding as he began to wilt on the turn and had nothing left for the stretch run.
Finally, the day's coup de grace. Bullsbay at 18-1 was the upset winner of the Whitney. To say I was high on Bullsbay's chances would not be truthful. Still I liked his chances better than Commentator who I thought was overrated. I liked his chances better than Tizway's who figured to get used up early chasing Commentator. And I felt his last race on the plastic surface was an anomaly. Bullsbay, does show 2 wins and 4 more in the money finishes on "all weather" surfaces, but each surface is different. I don't know if he has ever shown any ability on Hollywood's surface or not. Of all the horses running, Bullsbay seemed most likely to improve off of his last effort which made him a tepid contender needing at least 9-1 and fully worthy of a wager at 18-1. I do hope you joined the Weasel in cashing that ticket.
Next week I will be at the historic Saratoga Race Track on Friday and Saturday. I will try to post Public Handicapper races for next Saturday, but I don't know at this time about the availability of a wireless connection or time to actually make the post. However, if anyone within reading distance of this would like to meet at some time during those two days, I'd love to meet you. Also if anyone ever benefits by anything I write here, I'd like to here about that as well. C'mon stroke my 'er...ego and show the Weasel some love. Who's a good Weasel? You're a good Weasel! ;=)
Until the next post. Good Luck
In the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes, the 3rd ranked contender Take The Points finally fulfilled his potential and out dueled Black Bear Island down the stretch. Financially, the race was a pass as no horse's odds ventured into the playable arena. However, there is nothing the Weasel likes more, other than cashing a ticket, than watching two of his contenders battle it out down the stretch.
In the Grade 1 Beverly D Stakes, you can't say that the Weasel did not alert you to the possibility of Dynaforce. At 7-1, Dynaforce to win was the correct play in the race. I say the "correct" play because I actually took the 8-1 Alnadana to win. Luckily, on any horse at > 5-1, I also play the win selection underneath the other win contenders yielding a nifty exacta worth $160.40 on $2.00 played. At the very least, 7-1 is nothing to sneeze at. I hope some of my readers took advantage of the value that was offered in this race.
The next race, The Arlington Million, went pretty much according to the way most people thought it would. Presious Passion went to the lead and the rest of the field was left to play catch up. To no one's great surprise, Gio Ponti proved to be the best horse in the race. If you followed my advice, this race was a pass. I was afraid Presious Passion might build up an insurmountable lead as he did in the United Nations at Monmouth, but that turned out not to be the case. Perhaps the soft ground took its toll on the front-running gelding as he began to wilt on the turn and had nothing left for the stretch run.
Finally, the day's coup de grace. Bullsbay at 18-1 was the upset winner of the Whitney. To say I was high on Bullsbay's chances would not be truthful. Still I liked his chances better than Commentator who I thought was overrated. I liked his chances better than Tizway's who figured to get used up early chasing Commentator. And I felt his last race on the plastic surface was an anomaly. Bullsbay, does show 2 wins and 4 more in the money finishes on "all weather" surfaces, but each surface is different. I don't know if he has ever shown any ability on Hollywood's surface or not. Of all the horses running, Bullsbay seemed most likely to improve off of his last effort which made him a tepid contender needing at least 9-1 and fully worthy of a wager at 18-1. I do hope you joined the Weasel in cashing that ticket.
Next week I will be at the historic Saratoga Race Track on Friday and Saturday. I will try to post Public Handicapper races for next Saturday, but I don't know at this time about the availability of a wireless connection or time to actually make the post. However, if anyone within reading distance of this would like to meet at some time during those two days, I'd love to meet you. Also if anyone ever benefits by anything I write here, I'd like to here about that as well. C'mon stroke my 'er...ego and show the Weasel some love. Who's a good Weasel? You're a good Weasel! ;=)
Until the next post. Good Luck
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Summit Of Speed and PH Picks for July 11
Another Saturday, another day of big stakes and small wagers. Last week was a good one, let's go for two in a row. Starting with the Public Handicapper races for today.
1 3/8 Mile (Inner Turf) Man O War G1 Race 7 at Belmont Park
Gio Ponti
5-2
4-1
Midships
4-1
6-1
Quijano
9-2
7-1
Dancing Forever
5-1
8-1
Shapes up to be a competitive race in which any of 6 horses has a legit shot. Someone will need a good trip. Homefield advantage goes to Gio Ponti with Ramon Dominquez aboard. GP comes off a G1 win in the Manhattan and is 3 for 4 over the course. He is stretching out an extra furlong for the first time, but I don't think that will be a problem. The hot horse is Midships coming off 3 straight grade wins. Figure pattern suggests Midships may not have enough to win this race. German bred Quijano is 6 for 6 at the distance and a Group 1 winner at Milan. The gelding just missed at the Northern Dancer G1 last year at Woodbine and comes back to the states for another go. Quijano will be my PH pick. Dancing Forever comes back 2nd off layoff from a good Breeder's Cup Turf effort. Last race was clearly a tune up for bigger things, and this may be it. You can also throw Grand Courturier and Marsh Side into the mix as well, but you have to narrow it down somehow, and sometimes hard decisions have to be made.
1 Mile Turf Battlefield Stakes 70k Monmouth PP 4:20
#8 Get Serious
5-2
4-1
#9 Jet Propulsion
4-1
6-1
#6 Independent George
9-2
7-1
#3 Steve's Double
5-1
8-1
Get Serious is our horse for the course with 4 wins in 6 tries including a similar type race 2 back. Get Serious along with Jet Propulsion will both be aiming to set the early fractions and Get Serious has the advantage of being inside JP. Truth is, this race is set up nicely for a closer such as Independent George who will be my PH selection. For Seinfeld fans Independent George is also the hunch play of the day. Steve's Double is coming off a long layoff, but has won richer races than this one and trainer Ronny Werner is 27% with a +ROI with layoffs of greater than 90 days. Elvis Trujillo in the irons doesn't hurt the chances either.
1 1/4 Mile (Turf) Arlington Handicap G3 6:40
#12 Cosmonaut
5-2
4-1
# 13 Thabazimbi
4-1
6-1
#9 Just As Well
9-2
7-1
#11 Stream Cat
5-1
8-1
One of the good things about the Arlington turf course at this distance is there does not appear to be any significant post position bias. This is a good thing as all my contenders for this race will be starting from the outer posts. Cosmonaut finds an easier spot to run than last out when he faced the likes of Gio Ponti and Marsh Side in the Manhattan. Cosmonaut is 2 for 4 on the course and 2 for 6 at the distance and has Robbie Albarado to guide him. #13 Thazimbi has been freshened after giving a good effort last out in the Louisville G3. Should like the distance and Leparoux is one of the best. Just As Well has yet to win this year, but showed some promise of improvement in his last two outings. Stream Cat won this race last year off a layoff and hopes to do the same again this year.
1 1/4 Mile Hollywood Gold Cup G1 7:30
Hol G1 AW
7:30
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#10 Life Is Sweet
5-2
4-1
#4 Bullsbay
4-1
6-1
#5 Parading
9-2
7-1
#12 Informed
5-1
8-1
A very competitive race, but strengthwise I think it is lacking in strength for a G1 affair. I think this is why Shirreffs has chosen this spot to enter his 2nd best filly Life Is Sweet who was 2nd best to Zenyatta last out. Bullsbay will be a force to be reckoned with if he can run back to his recent performances. I could rank Parading higher, but not knowing how he will handle the cushion track caused me to downgrade him just a little. However, Kent Desormeaux knows how to ride and if he has any affinity for the course he'll be there in the mix at the end. Informed will be hampered by starting from the 12th post, but the G2 Californian winner is 3 for 7 on the track and should have a shot. Mast Track and Tres Borrachos are two other to keep in mind for Trifecta purposes.
And now for some Summit of Speed Racing
5f (Turf) Bob Umphrey Turf Spring Championship Handicap
#5 Mr. Nightlinger
5-2
4-1
#8 Possetothemax
9-2
7-1
#3 Midnight Ridge
4-1
6-1
#7 Ron Bob And Dave
5-1
8-1
If this race stays on the Turf, which as of this writing it appears that it will, than forget the odds line as it pertains to Mr. Nightlinger, he is clearly the best in the field. That being said, Possetothemax is 3 for 4 on CRC Turf including an overnight win last out and should be hanging around for at least a minor award. Midnight Ridge gets rider Paco Lopez aboard. He will be contending for the early lead, and Paco will have him hugging the rail all the way if he can. However the turns on the turf course are tight which is probably why runners in these 5f sprints at CRC generally do better starting from the outside. Finally I'll thrown Ron Bob And Dave shipping in from Hollywood to make his stakes debut. He's run some nice figures and could take advantage of an early speed duel. But really, all these other guys are racing for 2nd IMOH
I'm going to skip the 5f J J's Dream for 2yo fillies. It appears to be a major crap shoot in my opinion.
6 f Azalea Stakes G3 for 3yo fillies
#7 Kays and Jays
5-2
4-1
#3 Royal Card
9-2
7-1
#2 Underground
4-1
6-1
#9 First Passage
5-1
8-1
Kays and Jays turnsback after being overmatched in Hollywood and comes back to her preferred distance of 6f. Jose Lezcano gets the call. Royal Card is one of 3 Marty Wolfson entries in this race and has really awakened under Marty's tutelage after he took over from Todd Pletcher 2 races ago. Underground maybe taking a huge step up in only her 2nd race, but the Baffert trainee ran big first out, so why not. Mike Smith is the rider. First Passage is another Wolfson runner. She is a winner of an overnight 100k stakes last out, but the outside post could hinder her here.
6f Carry Back Stakes G2 for 3yo 3:56
#1 You Lucky Mann
5-2
4-1
#5 Not For Silver
9-2
7-1
#2 Ask Joe
4-1
6-1
#4 Prince Joshua
5-1
8-1
You really have to watch the last race between You Lucky Mann and Prince Joshua to believe it. You Lucky Mann caught Prince Joshua on the turn into the stretch. Jockey Jermaine Bridgmohan appeared, to my eyes, to relax on YLM thinking it was over, but it was not as Prince Joshua fought back and JB had to get really busy to pull the race out. Still YLM is the better horse. Not For Silver comes out of a really nice race on Preakness day and may get the gold today. Ask Joe, the Fair Grounds Sugar Bowl winner, ridden by Paco Lopez is one that could benefit from a hot pace scenario. Prince Joshua showed a lot of courage last out and could prevail if he can avoid a bounce out of that race.
6f Princess Rooney Hdcp G1 for fillies and mares 3 up 4:26
#8 Dubai Majesty
5-2
4-1
#6 Game Face
9-2
7-1
#7 Keep The Peace
4-1
6-1
#1 Jessica Is Back
5-1
8-1
Well, I've been known to go off half-cocked before and I am doing so again. I don't think Indian Blessing will be at her best today. I was informed that Baffert excused the last effort due to a leg infection; however the infection didn't seem to effect her the first 5 furlongs of that race. In addition, I still don't like the last workout which was nearly 2 seconds off the previous. It was still good for most, but not a Baffert type work. So, I'm looking to Dubai Majesty who showed some guts in the Winning Colors last out. Jamie (don't blame me) Theriot has won on her before, and if I'm right about IB, he should win on her again. Todd Pletcher's Game Face is a consistent graded stakes runner and figures to do well here. Keep The Peace ran 3rd in DM's last race and would've finished, at least, 2nd had she not been impeded by Lady Chace in the stretch, so you got to give her a chance here. Finally, Wolfson runner Jessica Is Back has some speed, has the rail and Paco Lopez. She, Could, Go, All, The, Way!
6f Smile Sprint Handicap-G2 4:55
#4 Benny The Bull
5-2
4-1
#5 Eaton's Gift
9-2
7-1
#6 Yesbyjimminy
4-1
6-1
#2 How's Your Halo
5-1
8-1
Once again, forget the odds line for Benny. This one is Benny The Bull and the usual suspects. Eaton's Gift comes Turf to Dirt and 2nd off layoff for Dale Romans and Jose Lezcano. Then Yesbyjimminy and How's Your Halo round out the usual suspects. Ikigai, or maybe Icky Guy, does not appear to be the same horse that won the Mr. Prospector back in January at GulfStream.
Well that about covers it for today. You've certainly gotten more than your money's worth and I hope you find something in all of this that can be used to your benefit.
1 3/8 Mile (Inner Turf) Man O War G1 Race 7 at Belmont Park
Gio Ponti
5-2
4-1
Midships
4-1
6-1
Quijano
9-2
7-1
Dancing Forever
5-1
8-1
Shapes up to be a competitive race in which any of 6 horses has a legit shot. Someone will need a good trip. Homefield advantage goes to Gio Ponti with Ramon Dominquez aboard. GP comes off a G1 win in the Manhattan and is 3 for 4 over the course. He is stretching out an extra furlong for the first time, but I don't think that will be a problem. The hot horse is Midships coming off 3 straight grade wins. Figure pattern suggests Midships may not have enough to win this race. German bred Quijano is 6 for 6 at the distance and a Group 1 winner at Milan. The gelding just missed at the Northern Dancer G1 last year at Woodbine and comes back to the states for another go. Quijano will be my PH pick. Dancing Forever comes back 2nd off layoff from a good Breeder's Cup Turf effort. Last race was clearly a tune up for bigger things, and this may be it. You can also throw Grand Courturier and Marsh Side into the mix as well, but you have to narrow it down somehow, and sometimes hard decisions have to be made.
1 Mile Turf Battlefield Stakes 70k Monmouth PP 4:20
#8 Get Serious
5-2
4-1
#9 Jet Propulsion
4-1
6-1
#6 Independent George
9-2
7-1
#3 Steve's Double
5-1
8-1
Get Serious is our horse for the course with 4 wins in 6 tries including a similar type race 2 back. Get Serious along with Jet Propulsion will both be aiming to set the early fractions and Get Serious has the advantage of being inside JP. Truth is, this race is set up nicely for a closer such as Independent George who will be my PH selection. For Seinfeld fans Independent George is also the hunch play of the day. Steve's Double is coming off a long layoff, but has won richer races than this one and trainer Ronny Werner is 27% with a +ROI with layoffs of greater than 90 days. Elvis Trujillo in the irons doesn't hurt the chances either.
1 1/4 Mile (Turf) Arlington Handicap G3 6:40
#12 Cosmonaut
5-2
4-1
# 13 Thabazimbi
4-1
6-1
#9 Just As Well
9-2
7-1
#11 Stream Cat
5-1
8-1
One of the good things about the Arlington turf course at this distance is there does not appear to be any significant post position bias. This is a good thing as all my contenders for this race will be starting from the outer posts. Cosmonaut finds an easier spot to run than last out when he faced the likes of Gio Ponti and Marsh Side in the Manhattan. Cosmonaut is 2 for 4 on the course and 2 for 6 at the distance and has Robbie Albarado to guide him. #13 Thazimbi has been freshened after giving a good effort last out in the Louisville G3. Should like the distance and Leparoux is one of the best. Just As Well has yet to win this year, but showed some promise of improvement in his last two outings. Stream Cat won this race last year off a layoff and hopes to do the same again this year.
1 1/4 Mile Hollywood Gold Cup G1 7:30
Hol G1 AW
7:30
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#10 Life Is Sweet
5-2
4-1
#4 Bullsbay
4-1
6-1
#5 Parading
9-2
7-1
#12 Informed
5-1
8-1
A very competitive race, but strengthwise I think it is lacking in strength for a G1 affair. I think this is why Shirreffs has chosen this spot to enter his 2nd best filly Life Is Sweet who was 2nd best to Zenyatta last out. Bullsbay will be a force to be reckoned with if he can run back to his recent performances. I could rank Parading higher, but not knowing how he will handle the cushion track caused me to downgrade him just a little. However, Kent Desormeaux knows how to ride and if he has any affinity for the course he'll be there in the mix at the end. Informed will be hampered by starting from the 12th post, but the G2 Californian winner is 3 for 7 on the track and should have a shot. Mast Track and Tres Borrachos are two other to keep in mind for Trifecta purposes.
And now for some Summit of Speed Racing
5f (Turf) Bob Umphrey Turf Spring Championship Handicap
#5 Mr. Nightlinger
5-2
4-1
#8 Possetothemax
9-2
7-1
#3 Midnight Ridge
4-1
6-1
#7 Ron Bob And Dave
5-1
8-1
If this race stays on the Turf, which as of this writing it appears that it will, than forget the odds line as it pertains to Mr. Nightlinger, he is clearly the best in the field. That being said, Possetothemax is 3 for 4 on CRC Turf including an overnight win last out and should be hanging around for at least a minor award. Midnight Ridge gets rider Paco Lopez aboard. He will be contending for the early lead, and Paco will have him hugging the rail all the way if he can. However the turns on the turf course are tight which is probably why runners in these 5f sprints at CRC generally do better starting from the outside. Finally I'll thrown Ron Bob And Dave shipping in from Hollywood to make his stakes debut. He's run some nice figures and could take advantage of an early speed duel. But really, all these other guys are racing for 2nd IMOH
I'm going to skip the 5f J J's Dream for 2yo fillies. It appears to be a major crap shoot in my opinion.
6 f Azalea Stakes G3 for 3yo fillies
#7 Kays and Jays
5-2
4-1
#3 Royal Card
9-2
7-1
#2 Underground
4-1
6-1
#9 First Passage
5-1
8-1
Kays and Jays turnsback after being overmatched in Hollywood and comes back to her preferred distance of 6f. Jose Lezcano gets the call. Royal Card is one of 3 Marty Wolfson entries in this race and has really awakened under Marty's tutelage after he took over from Todd Pletcher 2 races ago. Underground maybe taking a huge step up in only her 2nd race, but the Baffert trainee ran big first out, so why not. Mike Smith is the rider. First Passage is another Wolfson runner. She is a winner of an overnight 100k stakes last out, but the outside post could hinder her here.
6f Carry Back Stakes G2 for 3yo 3:56
#1 You Lucky Mann
5-2
4-1
#5 Not For Silver
9-2
7-1
#2 Ask Joe
4-1
6-1
#4 Prince Joshua
5-1
8-1
You really have to watch the last race between You Lucky Mann and Prince Joshua to believe it. You Lucky Mann caught Prince Joshua on the turn into the stretch. Jockey Jermaine Bridgmohan appeared, to my eyes, to relax on YLM thinking it was over, but it was not as Prince Joshua fought back and JB had to get really busy to pull the race out. Still YLM is the better horse. Not For Silver comes out of a really nice race on Preakness day and may get the gold today. Ask Joe, the Fair Grounds Sugar Bowl winner, ridden by Paco Lopez is one that could benefit from a hot pace scenario. Prince Joshua showed a lot of courage last out and could prevail if he can avoid a bounce out of that race.
6f Princess Rooney Hdcp G1 for fillies and mares 3 up 4:26
#8 Dubai Majesty
5-2
4-1
#6 Game Face
9-2
7-1
#7 Keep The Peace
4-1
6-1
#1 Jessica Is Back
5-1
8-1
Well, I've been known to go off half-cocked before and I am doing so again. I don't think Indian Blessing will be at her best today. I was informed that Baffert excused the last effort due to a leg infection; however the infection didn't seem to effect her the first 5 furlongs of that race. In addition, I still don't like the last workout which was nearly 2 seconds off the previous. It was still good for most, but not a Baffert type work. So, I'm looking to Dubai Majesty who showed some guts in the Winning Colors last out. Jamie (don't blame me) Theriot has won on her before, and if I'm right about IB, he should win on her again. Todd Pletcher's Game Face is a consistent graded stakes runner and figures to do well here. Keep The Peace ran 3rd in DM's last race and would've finished, at least, 2nd had she not been impeded by Lady Chace in the stretch, so you got to give her a chance here. Finally, Wolfson runner Jessica Is Back has some speed, has the rail and Paco Lopez. She, Could, Go, All, The, Way!
6f Smile Sprint Handicap-G2 4:55
#4 Benny The Bull
5-2
4-1
#5 Eaton's Gift
9-2
7-1
#6 Yesbyjimminy
4-1
6-1
#2 How's Your Halo
5-1
8-1
Once again, forget the odds line for Benny. This one is Benny The Bull and the usual suspects. Eaton's Gift comes Turf to Dirt and 2nd off layoff for Dale Romans and Jose Lezcano. Then Yesbyjimminy and How's Your Halo round out the usual suspects. Ikigai, or maybe Icky Guy, does not appear to be the same horse that won the Mr. Prospector back in January at GulfStream.
Well that about covers it for today. You've certainly gotten more than your money's worth and I hope you find something in all of this that can be used to your benefit.
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Rachel Romps, Weasel Chomps
Even at 1.5 to 5 the Weasel couldn't resist the allure of that equine siren, Rachel Alexandra. My $20.00 wager netted $6.00. I couldn't help myself. It's like going to the laudromat and finding $6.00 wadded up in the drier. How can you just leave it there?
Now I still have a live Oaks/Derby Double ticket with 6 Derby contenders: Hold Me Back, Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, Chocolate Candy, I Want Revenge, and Pioneerof The Nile. Some of these will pay a reasonable amount considering the heavy favortism of Rachel Alexandra and all will at least pay for the total wager, so I'm feeling pretty good about that. Kudos to Greg Calabrese for finding out the will pays http://gregcalabrese.blogspot.com/2009/05/oaksderby-will-pays.html.
Although, I still reserve the right to change my mind. Right now, Freisan Fire is my huckleberry to win the roses. Pioneerof The Nile is my #2, but if the track is off, I may change my mind on that one. Regal Ransom is #3 and I Want Revenge is #4.
Having a live Double ticket gives me the luxury of spreading a few $2 win bets on some of the longer prices that may have a chance, so on that basis, I can have at least half the field covered.
Now for a special treat, I received the following E-Mail from Mark Cramer CX Report. Since there is no warning not to republish this information and I'm no longer a subscriber to his report, I feel no guilt about publishing this for the world to see. Bear in mind, I have nothing but great respect for Mr. Cramer. His books have opened my eyes to the possibities available in handicapping horses and have much enhanced my enjoyment of the sport. However, I don't feel he really has his heart into the CX Report and with its sporadic publishing schedule I didn't feel like it was worth the subscription price and didn't renew for another year. But they still send me E-Mails and this time I actually got content due to their server being down. Mark's analysis of major races is like no one elses. So here it is for you.
is being sent via email as our blog was not working -- also some thoughts from Nick Kling belowDerby 2009 Final Post but .As always, I do a final post but reserve the right to leave somethingfor Saturday morning in case there is any new development, somethingthat happened in the BC when I posted a late discovery on Desert Codeon Saturday morning.I see my top three Derby horses as evenly ranked but for entirelydifferent reasons. Obligated to provide a ranking, I resort to thepotential value.Top ranked: DESERT PARTY. In addition to what I've said in previousposts, I can add two things. We can note that DP threw in a clunker inthe Hopeful, behind Vineyard Haven. DP has defeated Vineyard Haventwice, one prior to the Hopeful and then in Dubai, by more than 10lengths. This is an indicator of a developing horse. Second, DP'sstable is 3 for 4 with Dominguez aboard. And of course, DP's pedigreeand the fact that he's won on the mud, in case the rain issignificant.Second. FRIESAN FIRE. We can be concerned about the fact that FF's bigimprove was on a sloppy track. That track had been sealed and there isa good chance that, with a 70% chance of rains for both Friday andSaturday, Churchill will seal the track. Larry Jones has twicefinished second with high-odds horses. FF could be another second forLJ.Third. I WANT REVENGE. I looked again at Talamo's description of theWood. He said that IWR did not even run until the last eighth. If forsome reason there is not much odds differential between FF and IWR, Iwould reverse this order of preference.POSSIBLE STEALER: I had mentioned that REGAL RANSOM took advantage ofa track bias in Dubai, but if Churchill is sealed, he may get anearly-speed bias once again. Not much speed in this field. Join theDance has enjoyed slow fractions in his two front-running route racesand gotten beaten both times. RR's only bad race was on syntheticsurface.FIFTY-TO-ONE TRIFECTA INCLUSION: SUMMER BIRD's only knock is lack ofexperience, but luck at those increasing speed figures! He has TripleCrown pedigree. He was on the way to passing Papa Clem, a horse whosepicture has been taken with the Derby favorites.I don't know what to say about DUNKIRK. On pure ability he shouldcontend for this race. But the trainer is snakebit in the Derby,Dunkirk did not race as a two year old, and he must be frail to haveonly raced three times so far. If he wins, we can look back and seereasons why, but if he does and I don't have him, I will sleep wellanyway.PIONEER OF THE NILE is the other horse I am leaving out. I continue tofeel that the SA Derby should be demoted to Grade 2. He has not beenon dirt and his dirt works beg interpretation. I wish I did not haveto make judgments about this extra surface factor. I wish they wouldjust run 'em on good old dirt. The SA synthetic horses can't evendefeat invading turf shippers on their own "soil". Again, if Baffertwins this one, I will still sleep well.mcNick Kling is a fine handicapper, one of the best in the nation. Sincehe's not available at the usual sources, I felt it would beinteresting for you to read his arguments. Having to handicap thetrack condition while handicapping the race has never been easy.One last note, repeated from other Stakes Weekends. This is not a toutservice. I try to provide information, or at least extract it, in asobjective a way as possible. Many C&X readers are fine handicappers.You don't need a guru and the fun of this game is making your ownchoice, using the information that is available. My job is simply todig for info that you may not have seen, info you can add to your ownanalysis if you deem it worthy.Enjoy this great day of the year and be confident in your own wisdom.Mark TROY RECORD MAY 2, 2009 A FIRE IN KENTUCKY Let's get right to the point. I think FRIESAN FIRE is going to win the Kentucky Derby, and Iwon't be surprised if he wins big. Here are several reasons why. 1) PACE: As it said here yesterday, the loss of three qualityspeed horses to injury has dramatically changed the 135th Derby.Where once the pace could have easily been fast, setting up closerslike Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile, it is now likely to be moderate. The most likely race set-up is for impossible longshot Join Inthe Dance to get the lead. Closest to him will be Regal Ransom.Friesan Fire should be positioned third or fourth in the run down thebackstretch. He will not be far off the leader, unless Join In theDance is launched from the gate by jockey Chris Decarlo, settingsprinter's fractions. Even if that materializes, Friesan Fire will have a hugetactical edge over the closers. Jerry Bailey once said the pace of arace is not determined by the frontrunner. Rather, said Bailey, whatthe second horse does is more important. Regal Ransom's jockey AlanGarcia is not likely to fall into the trap of chasing Join In theDance, a horse almost certain to stop like he has a flat tire. If I am correct, Regal Ransom and Friesan Fire will settle intoa comfortable gait, waiting to make their move. 2) WEATHER/TRACK CONDITION: The forecast for Louisville,Kentucky, site of Churchill Downs and the Derby, is for moisture.There could be possible thunder showers in the morning, followed bysteady, light rain in the afternoon. Churchill's track superintendent, Butch Lehr, is a master atmanaging the dirt surface. Nine times out of ten he can transformswamp into fast going by Derby post time. However, if the forecast iscorrect, he may have to seal the track -- push it into a flat, firmsurface so rain runs off. That traditionally favors horses with early speed, and thosewith experience racing over similar conditions. Friesan Fire won theLouisiana Derby on a sloppy, sealed track, demolishing what wasconsidered an excellent field. Conversely, prime contenders Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile, and IWant Revenge, have never seen that type of surface. The latter pairhave galloped over wet going at Churchill in recent days, but that isnot the same as catching gobs of mud in your face, or being asked togive maximum effort on unfamiliar footing. Mid-level prospect Desert Party won a stake at Saratoga oversealed mud, while Papa Clem finished a distant second to Friesan Firein the Louisiana Derby. If the track is actually wet at Derby posttime, they could prove the primary threats. 3) PATTERNS: Friesan Fire comes into the race in a manner verysimilar to Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Like Friesan Fire, both weretrained by Larry Jones. Both finished second, running well enough towin. Friesan Fire reprised Hard Spun's blistering pre-Derby workout,going five furlongs in 57 and change. Eight Belles trained fast aswell. Like Friesan Fire, she had not raced farther than one andone-sixteenth miles before the Derby. 4) SYNTHETIC TRACKS: Six of the Derby entrants have never won arace on dirt. Most of them have either never raced on dirt, or shownno ability over it. That includes prime contender Pioneerof the Nile,as well as mid-level prospects Chocolate Candy and Hold Me Back. Is there a chance that one or more of those colts will likeChurchill dirt? Of course. Is it wise to risk a wager on an animaltrying something it has never done? Only if the odds are right. Pioneerof the Nile is 4-1 on the morning line. Accepting thoseodds on an unknown commodity is a license to lose. At the minimum,demand twice the price. Hold Me Back (15-1), Chocolate Candy (20-1), and Mr. Hot Stuff(30-1), can be considered if their odds do not drop. It would bepreferable to hold out for more. 5) OTHER QUESTIONS: If racing legends like Secretariat, SeattleSlew, and Spectacular Bid can lose, any horse can lose. What is themost likely scenario which could lead to a Friesan Fire loss, otherthan random bad luck? If I'm wrong about the pace, or if Gabriel Saez prematurelysends Friesan Fire after the leaders, he could lose. A dry trackmight be less speed-favoring than a wet one. Both of thoseeventualities would help stalker/closers. The most likely winner other than Friesan Fire is DUNKIRK. I was prepared to like this horse, love him even. Dunkirk'sFebruary 19 allowance victory at Gulfstream was eye-catching. Horsesdon't win at Gulfstream Park the way he did that day. Where some saw Dunkirk's loss to Quality Road as a sign thelatter was superior, I saw a talented runner-up defeated bycircumstances -- a slow pace and speed-biased track. And don'tunderestimate how good Quality Road was that day. If he was healthyand in this race, Quality Road might have been my top choice. I don't believe Dunkirk's lack of seasoning will hurt him. Therules for winning the Kentucky Derby have changed, and he may be themost talented horse in the race. I WANT REVENGE has run well enough to win the Derby, but onlyif Friesan Fire and Dunkirk fail to improve. The likelihood is bothwill today. It is almost a certainty one will. Call me a superstitious fool, but I can't shake the notion theracing spirits will anoint a horse other than I Want Revenge. Thereis bad karma surrounding trainer Jeff Mullins. A Mullins win would beakin to the Black Sox having gotten away unpunished after the 1919World Series. Kentucky Derby Selections: 1) Friesan Fire, 2) Dunkirk, 3) IWant Revenge, 4) Desert Party.
Good luck and enjoy the racing today.
Now I still have a live Oaks/Derby Double ticket with 6 Derby contenders: Hold Me Back, Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, Chocolate Candy, I Want Revenge, and Pioneerof The Nile. Some of these will pay a reasonable amount considering the heavy favortism of Rachel Alexandra and all will at least pay for the total wager, so I'm feeling pretty good about that. Kudos to Greg Calabrese for finding out the will pays http://gregcalabrese.blogspot.com/2009/05/oaksderby-will-pays.html.
Although, I still reserve the right to change my mind. Right now, Freisan Fire is my huckleberry to win the roses. Pioneerof The Nile is my #2, but if the track is off, I may change my mind on that one. Regal Ransom is #3 and I Want Revenge is #4.
Having a live Double ticket gives me the luxury of spreading a few $2 win bets on some of the longer prices that may have a chance, so on that basis, I can have at least half the field covered.
Now for a special treat, I received the following E-Mail from Mark Cramer CX Report. Since there is no warning not to republish this information and I'm no longer a subscriber to his report, I feel no guilt about publishing this for the world to see. Bear in mind, I have nothing but great respect for Mr. Cramer. His books have opened my eyes to the possibities available in handicapping horses and have much enhanced my enjoyment of the sport. However, I don't feel he really has his heart into the CX Report and with its sporadic publishing schedule I didn't feel like it was worth the subscription price and didn't renew for another year. But they still send me E-Mails and this time I actually got content due to their server being down. Mark's analysis of major races is like no one elses. So here it is for you.
is being sent via email as our blog was not working -- also some thoughts from Nick Kling belowDerby 2009 Final Post but .As always, I do a final post but reserve the right to leave somethingfor Saturday morning in case there is any new development, somethingthat happened in the BC when I posted a late discovery on Desert Codeon Saturday morning.I see my top three Derby horses as evenly ranked but for entirelydifferent reasons. Obligated to provide a ranking, I resort to thepotential value.Top ranked: DESERT PARTY. In addition to what I've said in previousposts, I can add two things. We can note that DP threw in a clunker inthe Hopeful, behind Vineyard Haven. DP has defeated Vineyard Haventwice, one prior to the Hopeful and then in Dubai, by more than 10lengths. This is an indicator of a developing horse. Second, DP'sstable is 3 for 4 with Dominguez aboard. And of course, DP's pedigreeand the fact that he's won on the mud, in case the rain issignificant.Second. FRIESAN FIRE. We can be concerned about the fact that FF's bigimprove was on a sloppy track. That track had been sealed and there isa good chance that, with a 70% chance of rains for both Friday andSaturday, Churchill will seal the track. Larry Jones has twicefinished second with high-odds horses. FF could be another second forLJ.Third. I WANT REVENGE. I looked again at Talamo's description of theWood. He said that IWR did not even run until the last eighth. If forsome reason there is not much odds differential between FF and IWR, Iwould reverse this order of preference.POSSIBLE STEALER: I had mentioned that REGAL RANSOM took advantage ofa track bias in Dubai, but if Churchill is sealed, he may get anearly-speed bias once again. Not much speed in this field. Join theDance has enjoyed slow fractions in his two front-running route racesand gotten beaten both times. RR's only bad race was on syntheticsurface.FIFTY-TO-ONE TRIFECTA INCLUSION: SUMMER BIRD's only knock is lack ofexperience, but luck at those increasing speed figures! He has TripleCrown pedigree. He was on the way to passing Papa Clem, a horse whosepicture has been taken with the Derby favorites.I don't know what to say about DUNKIRK. On pure ability he shouldcontend for this race. But the trainer is snakebit in the Derby,Dunkirk did not race as a two year old, and he must be frail to haveonly raced three times so far. If he wins, we can look back and seereasons why, but if he does and I don't have him, I will sleep wellanyway.PIONEER OF THE NILE is the other horse I am leaving out. I continue tofeel that the SA Derby should be demoted to Grade 2. He has not beenon dirt and his dirt works beg interpretation. I wish I did not haveto make judgments about this extra surface factor. I wish they wouldjust run 'em on good old dirt. The SA synthetic horses can't evendefeat invading turf shippers on their own "soil". Again, if Baffertwins this one, I will still sleep well.mcNick Kling is a fine handicapper, one of the best in the nation. Sincehe's not available at the usual sources, I felt it would beinteresting for you to read his arguments. Having to handicap thetrack condition while handicapping the race has never been easy.One last note, repeated from other Stakes Weekends. This is not a toutservice. I try to provide information, or at least extract it, in asobjective a way as possible. Many C&X readers are fine handicappers.You don't need a guru and the fun of this game is making your ownchoice, using the information that is available. My job is simply todig for info that you may not have seen, info you can add to your ownanalysis if you deem it worthy.Enjoy this great day of the year and be confident in your own wisdom.Mark TROY RECORD MAY 2, 2009 A FIRE IN KENTUCKY Let's get right to the point. I think FRIESAN FIRE is going to win the Kentucky Derby, and Iwon't be surprised if he wins big. Here are several reasons why. 1) PACE: As it said here yesterday, the loss of three qualityspeed horses to injury has dramatically changed the 135th Derby.Where once the pace could have easily been fast, setting up closerslike Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile, it is now likely to be moderate. The most likely race set-up is for impossible longshot Join Inthe Dance to get the lead. Closest to him will be Regal Ransom.Friesan Fire should be positioned third or fourth in the run down thebackstretch. He will not be far off the leader, unless Join In theDance is launched from the gate by jockey Chris Decarlo, settingsprinter's fractions. Even if that materializes, Friesan Fire will have a hugetactical edge over the closers. Jerry Bailey once said the pace of arace is not determined by the frontrunner. Rather, said Bailey, whatthe second horse does is more important. Regal Ransom's jockey AlanGarcia is not likely to fall into the trap of chasing Join In theDance, a horse almost certain to stop like he has a flat tire. If I am correct, Regal Ransom and Friesan Fire will settle intoa comfortable gait, waiting to make their move. 2) WEATHER/TRACK CONDITION: The forecast for Louisville,Kentucky, site of Churchill Downs and the Derby, is for moisture.There could be possible thunder showers in the morning, followed bysteady, light rain in the afternoon. Churchill's track superintendent, Butch Lehr, is a master atmanaging the dirt surface. Nine times out of ten he can transformswamp into fast going by Derby post time. However, if the forecast iscorrect, he may have to seal the track -- push it into a flat, firmsurface so rain runs off. That traditionally favors horses with early speed, and thosewith experience racing over similar conditions. Friesan Fire won theLouisiana Derby on a sloppy, sealed track, demolishing what wasconsidered an excellent field. Conversely, prime contenders Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile, and IWant Revenge, have never seen that type of surface. The latter pairhave galloped over wet going at Churchill in recent days, but that isnot the same as catching gobs of mud in your face, or being asked togive maximum effort on unfamiliar footing. Mid-level prospect Desert Party won a stake at Saratoga oversealed mud, while Papa Clem finished a distant second to Friesan Firein the Louisiana Derby. If the track is actually wet at Derby posttime, they could prove the primary threats. 3) PATTERNS: Friesan Fire comes into the race in a manner verysimilar to Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Like Friesan Fire, both weretrained by Larry Jones. Both finished second, running well enough towin. Friesan Fire reprised Hard Spun's blistering pre-Derby workout,going five furlongs in 57 and change. Eight Belles trained fast aswell. Like Friesan Fire, she had not raced farther than one andone-sixteenth miles before the Derby. 4) SYNTHETIC TRACKS: Six of the Derby entrants have never won arace on dirt. Most of them have either never raced on dirt, or shownno ability over it. That includes prime contender Pioneerof the Nile,as well as mid-level prospects Chocolate Candy and Hold Me Back. Is there a chance that one or more of those colts will likeChurchill dirt? Of course. Is it wise to risk a wager on an animaltrying something it has never done? Only if the odds are right. Pioneerof the Nile is 4-1 on the morning line. Accepting thoseodds on an unknown commodity is a license to lose. At the minimum,demand twice the price. Hold Me Back (15-1), Chocolate Candy (20-1), and Mr. Hot Stuff(30-1), can be considered if their odds do not drop. It would bepreferable to hold out for more. 5) OTHER QUESTIONS: If racing legends like Secretariat, SeattleSlew, and Spectacular Bid can lose, any horse can lose. What is themost likely scenario which could lead to a Friesan Fire loss, otherthan random bad luck? If I'm wrong about the pace, or if Gabriel Saez prematurelysends Friesan Fire after the leaders, he could lose. A dry trackmight be less speed-favoring than a wet one. Both of thoseeventualities would help stalker/closers. The most likely winner other than Friesan Fire is DUNKIRK. I was prepared to like this horse, love him even. Dunkirk'sFebruary 19 allowance victory at Gulfstream was eye-catching. Horsesdon't win at Gulfstream Park the way he did that day. Where some saw Dunkirk's loss to Quality Road as a sign thelatter was superior, I saw a talented runner-up defeated bycircumstances -- a slow pace and speed-biased track. And don'tunderestimate how good Quality Road was that day. If he was healthyand in this race, Quality Road might have been my top choice. I don't believe Dunkirk's lack of seasoning will hurt him. Therules for winning the Kentucky Derby have changed, and he may be themost talented horse in the race. I WANT REVENGE has run well enough to win the Derby, but onlyif Friesan Fire and Dunkirk fail to improve. The likelihood is bothwill today. It is almost a certainty one will. Call me a superstitious fool, but I can't shake the notion theracing spirits will anoint a horse other than I Want Revenge. Thereis bad karma surrounding trainer Jeff Mullins. A Mullins win would beakin to the Black Sox having gotten away unpunished after the 1919World Series. Kentucky Derby Selections: 1) Friesan Fire, 2) Dunkirk, 3) IWant Revenge, 4) Desert Party.
Good luck and enjoy the racing today.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
And The Winner Is
Not me. Unless you get to count now sitting comfortably at home sipping on a nice glass of Buffalo Trace on the rocks.
I warned you about my feelings on the Hawthorne race 6, so if you followed my advice on that one, I take no responsibility. If it were not a HANA Pool Race I would have passed it altogether.
Had the trifecta cold in the 7th race at Calder, not that you would've gotten rich out of a 5 horse race. Actually the race was a pass with no overlays although I did play $2 on the winner in my ADW account so as to avoid paying for the Form today. That's one way to get better than 4 to 5 on a legitimate favorite.
The 8th race was the most frustrating for me. If you read my earlier post, and are actually foolish enough to take my advice, you would've played the #6 horse Annabill at a nice 3-1 price. Not a bomb, but you need these low priced overlays too. However, I was there and saw Annabill in the paddock. Annabill had her ears pinned back, was shaking, and sweating heavily. Normally, if I can get 3-1 on a horse I make 6-5, I'm all over it. In this case, I took Annabill out of play. Had I been playing the home game, I'd have never seen this and played my top choice and cashed a nice wager. Perhaps, next time, if I'm on the premises, I'll just pass the race.
The 9th race should've been a pass with no overlays, and had I been playing the home game I'd have known that. But after making my wager with 1 MTP, #10 Baron Von Tap dropped from 9-1 to 8-1 on the 0 MTP click. What can you do? Again, playing the home game I don't have to hit the submit button until I see the 0 MTP click and could have passed the race. As it was, I didn't have the eventual winner as a contender so I kind of whiffed on that one even though my 2nd choice finished 2nd and the Baron finished 4th, so I didn't totally miss. More like a foul ball.
At least for the 10th race, I was on the right track even if it was the wrong train. Finallymadeit went 5 wide into the first turn. Didn't make the lead and finished up the track and Dream Maestro did, indeed, turn the tables on Finallymadeit. Hopefully, now Javier Negrete will give Finallymadeit the rest he well deserves. Unfortunately for Dream Maestro, Motovato was the best today. I was on the #1 Hey Bryn who wound up at 5-1 and finished 3rd. Hey Bryn tried hard but was no match for the top two today. I don't mind losing this way, at least I had the right contenders, if I stay this close, I'll get my share...and yours too.
May the horse be with you.
I warned you about my feelings on the Hawthorne race 6, so if you followed my advice on that one, I take no responsibility. If it were not a HANA Pool Race I would have passed it altogether.
Had the trifecta cold in the 7th race at Calder, not that you would've gotten rich out of a 5 horse race. Actually the race was a pass with no overlays although I did play $2 on the winner in my ADW account so as to avoid paying for the Form today. That's one way to get better than 4 to 5 on a legitimate favorite.
The 8th race was the most frustrating for me. If you read my earlier post, and are actually foolish enough to take my advice, you would've played the #6 horse Annabill at a nice 3-1 price. Not a bomb, but you need these low priced overlays too. However, I was there and saw Annabill in the paddock. Annabill had her ears pinned back, was shaking, and sweating heavily. Normally, if I can get 3-1 on a horse I make 6-5, I'm all over it. In this case, I took Annabill out of play. Had I been playing the home game, I'd have never seen this and played my top choice and cashed a nice wager. Perhaps, next time, if I'm on the premises, I'll just pass the race.
The 9th race should've been a pass with no overlays, and had I been playing the home game I'd have known that. But after making my wager with 1 MTP, #10 Baron Von Tap dropped from 9-1 to 8-1 on the 0 MTP click. What can you do? Again, playing the home game I don't have to hit the submit button until I see the 0 MTP click and could have passed the race. As it was, I didn't have the eventual winner as a contender so I kind of whiffed on that one even though my 2nd choice finished 2nd and the Baron finished 4th, so I didn't totally miss. More like a foul ball.
At least for the 10th race, I was on the right track even if it was the wrong train. Finallymadeit went 5 wide into the first turn. Didn't make the lead and finished up the track and Dream Maestro did, indeed, turn the tables on Finallymadeit. Hopefully, now Javier Negrete will give Finallymadeit the rest he well deserves. Unfortunately for Dream Maestro, Motovato was the best today. I was on the #1 Hey Bryn who wound up at 5-1 and finished 3rd. Hey Bryn tried hard but was no match for the top two today. I don't mind losing this way, at least I had the right contenders, if I stay this close, I'll get my share...and yours too.
May the horse be with you.
Some Saturday Picks
No time for chit chat. Need to help out with some housework to maintain domestic tranquility before I go to CRC for some live racing later this afternoon. Thought I'd give you some picks to chew on before I leave.
First in line is the HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) the 100k Pretty Jenny Stakes for 3yo Fillies restricted to Illinois breds from Hawthorne Park in Chicago.
I have to admit that I dont really have a good feel for this race so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle and looked for horses making 3yo debut after showing promise as 2yo's. Here are the picks. I will most likely only make a token wager on this one just for the cause.
P# 6th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Miss Fontana
3-1
9-2
#10 Happy Henrietta
7-2
5-1
#3 Tessies Tilbury
4-1
6-1
#9 Cumulonimble
6-1
9-1
The HANA Race of the week and I have to admit that I really don't have a good feel for this matchup of Ill breds, so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle of looking for horses that showed promise as 2 yo's making their 3 yo debut. #2 fits that bill winning her 2 yo debut and a State bred stakes before being put on the shelf in Aug last year. Inez Karlsson gets back on. #10 also fits the profile in winning 2yo debut and a state bred stakes in December, comes back after a 4 month freshening. #3 is one for two and could keep on improving with a Hi % jockey aboard and 2nd place OCn1x effort against non state breds. #9 hasn't won yet, but has been in the money 3 of 3 as a 2yo including 2nd in state restricted race and is making 3yo debut. Brandon Meier made the right decision in coming back to Chicago.
Opening Saturday at Calder Race Course and 4 stakes make the opening weekend card including two Graded stakes. I was disappointed to see they were not running with their 2:30 Friday post times this year. I've really enjoyed leaving work on Fridays and catching the late half of the card. I will miss that a lot. I can still do the simulcast from some other track, but its just not the same as seeing real horses.
The 7th race today is the 1 1/2 Mile (turf) LaPrevoyante Handicap-G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.
P# 7th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Criticism
1-1
3-2
#2 Long Approach
5-1
8-1
#3 Icon Project
6-1
9-1
#4 2 time G3 Marathon winner is definitely the one to beat #2 Hi % turf jockey Desormeaux travels south from Ky to team up with Hi % trainer Johnathan Sheppard, not for nothing. #3 Wolfson comes back to the track he dominates and Trujillo rides at track he dominated 2 years ago. Wolfy always has a shot a Calder
Next is the 1 mile 70 yards Emergency Nurse Stakes-Purse 55k for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
P# 8th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Annabill
6-5
9-5
#7 Eclisse
7-2
5-1
#2 Tiara Di Oro
6-1
9-1
#6 The other Wolfson gets his chance to shine here. Annabill wins at a near 50% clip at CRC is 4 of 9 at the distance, is a stakes winner and comes into the race fresh. #7 Marty Wolfson's horse is the only speed in the race and may be able to steal it on the front end. #2 The 2nd Marty Wolfson entry in the race is lightly raced and showing improvement in its last 3 races.
Race 9 is the 1 Mile (Turf) Miami Mile Handicap G3 for 3 and up.
P# 9th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Rogue Victory
3-1
9-2
#6 Mambo Meister
7-2
5-1
#1 Vanquisher
4-1
6-1
#10 Baron Von Tap
6-1
9-1
I'm expecting that Finallymadeit, Dream Maestro, and Motovato, will scratch out of this race and move to the 10 on dirt where they are also entered, but I have not yet been able to confirm this.#2 Does anyone think Desormeaux is giving up opening Sat. at CD to lose in S. Fla #2 has won 3 of 9 and his running lines look like he's getting ready to pop a big one. #6 is a stakes winner and 1 for three on CRC Turf. Manny Cruz gets back on the Meister. #1 Another tough customer, Stakes winner that is 6 for 17 on the sod with a High % Trainer. #10 may do nothing and may be the upset special of the day. Veteran turf specialist (8yo) with loads of back class has been revived since moving to Ziadie's barn 4 races ago.
And finally the 1 Mile 70 yards Sumter Stakes 55k for 3 and up.
P# 10th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Dream Maestro
3-1
9-2
#1 Hey Byrn
7-2
5-1
#7 Motovato
4-1
6-1
#8 Finallymadeit
6-1
9-1
#6 Finally gets to turn the tables on the 8 in a race where the 8 should face more of a pace challenge from Hal's My Hope and Honey Honey Honey. #1 comes in fresh off a turf effort where it became obvious he didn't belong. The rest should do him good and expect return to January form #7 Elvis and Marty team up again and this is another that has the look of a horse moving forward, expect a big effort here. #8 Negrete keeps putting this one out there every 21 days and this one keeps running; however others in this race may show a greater willingness to challenge this need to leader for the early fractions this time. Still this is a gritty horse that can't be totally discounted.
Note as of this writing the 3 dual entered horses have not scratched from either race. Depending on how the scratches fall out, all of the above for races 9 and 10 could be horse manure.
First in line is the HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) the 100k Pretty Jenny Stakes for 3yo Fillies restricted to Illinois breds from Hawthorne Park in Chicago.
I have to admit that I dont really have a good feel for this race so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle and looked for horses making 3yo debut after showing promise as 2yo's. Here are the picks. I will most likely only make a token wager on this one just for the cause.
P# 6th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Miss Fontana
3-1
9-2
#10 Happy Henrietta
7-2
5-1
#3 Tessies Tilbury
4-1
6-1
#9 Cumulonimble
6-1
9-1
The HANA Race of the week and I have to admit that I really don't have a good feel for this matchup of Ill breds, so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle of looking for horses that showed promise as 2 yo's making their 3 yo debut. #2 fits that bill winning her 2 yo debut and a State bred stakes before being put on the shelf in Aug last year. Inez Karlsson gets back on. #10 also fits the profile in winning 2yo debut and a state bred stakes in December, comes back after a 4 month freshening. #3 is one for two and could keep on improving with a Hi % jockey aboard and 2nd place OCn1x effort against non state breds. #9 hasn't won yet, but has been in the money 3 of 3 as a 2yo including 2nd in state restricted race and is making 3yo debut. Brandon Meier made the right decision in coming back to Chicago.
Opening Saturday at Calder Race Course and 4 stakes make the opening weekend card including two Graded stakes. I was disappointed to see they were not running with their 2:30 Friday post times this year. I've really enjoyed leaving work on Fridays and catching the late half of the card. I will miss that a lot. I can still do the simulcast from some other track, but its just not the same as seeing real horses.
The 7th race today is the 1 1/2 Mile (turf) LaPrevoyante Handicap-G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.
P# 7th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Criticism
1-1
3-2
#2 Long Approach
5-1
8-1
#3 Icon Project
6-1
9-1
#4 2 time G3 Marathon winner is definitely the one to beat #2 Hi % turf jockey Desormeaux travels south from Ky to team up with Hi % trainer Johnathan Sheppard, not for nothing. #3 Wolfson comes back to the track he dominates and Trujillo rides at track he dominated 2 years ago. Wolfy always has a shot a Calder
Next is the 1 mile 70 yards Emergency Nurse Stakes-Purse 55k for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
P# 8th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Annabill
6-5
9-5
#7 Eclisse
7-2
5-1
#2 Tiara Di Oro
6-1
9-1
#6 The other Wolfson gets his chance to shine here. Annabill wins at a near 50% clip at CRC is 4 of 9 at the distance, is a stakes winner and comes into the race fresh. #7 Marty Wolfson's horse is the only speed in the race and may be able to steal it on the front end. #2 The 2nd Marty Wolfson entry in the race is lightly raced and showing improvement in its last 3 races.
Race 9 is the 1 Mile (Turf) Miami Mile Handicap G3 for 3 and up.
P# 9th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Rogue Victory
3-1
9-2
#6 Mambo Meister
7-2
5-1
#1 Vanquisher
4-1
6-1
#10 Baron Von Tap
6-1
9-1
I'm expecting that Finallymadeit, Dream Maestro, and Motovato, will scratch out of this race and move to the 10 on dirt where they are also entered, but I have not yet been able to confirm this.#2 Does anyone think Desormeaux is giving up opening Sat. at CD to lose in S. Fla #2 has won 3 of 9 and his running lines look like he's getting ready to pop a big one. #6 is a stakes winner and 1 for three on CRC Turf. Manny Cruz gets back on the Meister. #1 Another tough customer, Stakes winner that is 6 for 17 on the sod with a High % Trainer. #10 may do nothing and may be the upset special of the day. Veteran turf specialist (8yo) with loads of back class has been revived since moving to Ziadie's barn 4 races ago.
And finally the 1 Mile 70 yards Sumter Stakes 55k for 3 and up.
P# 10th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Dream Maestro
3-1
9-2
#1 Hey Byrn
7-2
5-1
#7 Motovato
4-1
6-1
#8 Finallymadeit
6-1
9-1
#6 Finally gets to turn the tables on the 8 in a race where the 8 should face more of a pace challenge from Hal's My Hope and Honey Honey Honey. #1 comes in fresh off a turf effort where it became obvious he didn't belong. The rest should do him good and expect return to January form #7 Elvis and Marty team up again and this is another that has the look of a horse moving forward, expect a big effort here. #8 Negrete keeps putting this one out there every 21 days and this one keeps running; however others in this race may show a greater willingness to challenge this need to leader for the early fractions this time. Still this is a gritty horse that can't be totally discounted.
Note as of this writing the 3 dual entered horses have not scratched from either race. Depending on how the scratches fall out, all of the above for races 9 and 10 could be horse manure.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Felonius Wagering
This comes under the category of learning something new every day. I've just learned today that the HANA race of the week is Saturday, Race 6 at Hawthorne through the following letter.
You may have heard or read that Turf Paradise was to be the target track this Saturday for the HANA Get In The Pool race. Unfortunately, many horseplayers have expressed some big concerns about the law in Arizona which makes it a felony to use an ADW. Many players were very uncomfortable with this. At the HANA conference call Wednesday night it was discussed and decided that we would NOT bet Turf Paradise because of this law.We will be doing R6 at Hawthorne this Saturday 4/25/2009 instead. This is a stakes race with an eleven horse field with a morning line favorite at 4-1. NICE AND JUICY. We also decided to target the RACE and not a specific pool. This way you can handicap the race as you normally would and bet the pool (WPS, Exacta, Tri, Super, etc.) where you see the most value.GOOD LUCK ON SATURDAY.Sincerely,Your HANA Team
I wish they had given more details regarding this absurd law. As I have been known to place a wager at Turf Paradise from the comfort of my living room now and again, I was concerned that I had committed some kind of vile, criminal act in the process. At least now, as I understand it, I'm only a criminal if I placed that wager at some location other than an OTB or the track in Arizona, so I guess I have not violated the law after all. Good, I'm not giving the money back.
Right now, if it were not for ADW, I would be personna non grata from racing at the moment due to the prescence of that new Jack Russell in my house. He demands your attention! I can't even handicap a race at home right now. So each day I have been dutifully downloading a form and finding a race or two at a western track like Hollywood, Golden Gate, or, dare I say it, Turf Paradise and playing the game when I get home from work. As you can see by my little box on the left, this tactic is working out pretty well for me. Thanks Patrick!
Today I scored with a double longshot, each horse at 11-1, exacta at Hollywood in race 3. The funny thing is, I handicapped this race during lunch with no idea of the who the swamis at TVG would like. They, the swamis, like the one horse and so did I as he appeared to be the speed on the rail, and for some reason they also liked the 5 horse. I didn't consider the 5 to be a contender because he had been losing pretty regularly to claimers and the others seemed to have been racing against better. I also rejected the 2 because he had been vanned off last out and even Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert couldn't lure me to that one. The 3 I had rejected because his speed figures just didn't measure up to the others, so unless everyone else faltered and the 3 got better, there was no way for him to win. That left me with the 1,4,6, and 7. The one opened at even money and ended up around 8/5. Underlay, no play. The 4 opened at 5 to 1. The 4 was my 4th choice and I needed 9/1 to play him to win. The 6 and 7 both opened at 14-1 so I licked my chops and got ready to split my win wager and box 6,7/1,4,6,7.
Then the TVG people started talking about the race and they almost talked me off the 4 in favor of the 5 until I referred back to my notes on the race and reminded myself what I didn't like about the 5 and what I liked about the 4. As race time approached the 6 had dropped to underlay status as the 4 had steadily drifted up and was lingering at 8-1, still not enough for a wager. The 7 was pretty solid at 11-1 so he was my huckleberry for the win wager and the key horse in the exacta box in which I also included the 5 as a concession to the wisdom of the TVG commentators. After entering my bet in the TBA spreadsheet I turned back to the odds and saw that the 4 horse had now dropped to 11-1. Had I been gifted with the ability to see the future, this knowledge would've changed my bet, for the better, but I now I had to live with the hand I'd dealt myself.
Well not only the 1, but the 2 and the 5 all raced for the lead and set some torrid fractions. The 6 trailed the lead group by about 3 lengths with the 7 a length further back. The 4 must've been somewhere in the back. As they came around the turn the 6 and 7 both made their runs and over took the lead group at the top of the stretch. I thought that was the way it would finish until I caught the 4 flying down the stretch. Now I was concerned because if the 7 finishes 3rd, I don't get paid. Fortunately, the 3 overtook the 6 and finished 2nd to the 4 turning my $1 exacta (actually $8 total in the exacta) into $112.20. Not a bad way to spend your lunch hour I'd say.
May the horse be with you
You may have heard or read that Turf Paradise was to be the target track this Saturday for the HANA Get In The Pool race. Unfortunately, many horseplayers have expressed some big concerns about the law in Arizona which makes it a felony to use an ADW. Many players were very uncomfortable with this. At the HANA conference call Wednesday night it was discussed and decided that we would NOT bet Turf Paradise because of this law.We will be doing R6 at Hawthorne this Saturday 4/25/2009 instead. This is a stakes race with an eleven horse field with a morning line favorite at 4-1. NICE AND JUICY. We also decided to target the RACE and not a specific pool. This way you can handicap the race as you normally would and bet the pool (WPS, Exacta, Tri, Super, etc.) where you see the most value.GOOD LUCK ON SATURDAY.Sincerely,Your HANA Team
I wish they had given more details regarding this absurd law. As I have been known to place a wager at Turf Paradise from the comfort of my living room now and again, I was concerned that I had committed some kind of vile, criminal act in the process. At least now, as I understand it, I'm only a criminal if I placed that wager at some location other than an OTB or the track in Arizona, so I guess I have not violated the law after all. Good, I'm not giving the money back.
Right now, if it were not for ADW, I would be personna non grata from racing at the moment due to the prescence of that new Jack Russell in my house. He demands your attention! I can't even handicap a race at home right now. So each day I have been dutifully downloading a form and finding a race or two at a western track like Hollywood, Golden Gate, or, dare I say it, Turf Paradise and playing the game when I get home from work. As you can see by my little box on the left, this tactic is working out pretty well for me. Thanks Patrick!
Today I scored with a double longshot, each horse at 11-1, exacta at Hollywood in race 3. The funny thing is, I handicapped this race during lunch with no idea of the who the swamis at TVG would like. They, the swamis, like the one horse and so did I as he appeared to be the speed on the rail, and for some reason they also liked the 5 horse. I didn't consider the 5 to be a contender because he had been losing pretty regularly to claimers and the others seemed to have been racing against better. I also rejected the 2 because he had been vanned off last out and even Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert couldn't lure me to that one. The 3 I had rejected because his speed figures just didn't measure up to the others, so unless everyone else faltered and the 3 got better, there was no way for him to win. That left me with the 1,4,6, and 7. The one opened at even money and ended up around 8/5. Underlay, no play. The 4 opened at 5 to 1. The 4 was my 4th choice and I needed 9/1 to play him to win. The 6 and 7 both opened at 14-1 so I licked my chops and got ready to split my win wager and box 6,7/1,4,6,7.
Then the TVG people started talking about the race and they almost talked me off the 4 in favor of the 5 until I referred back to my notes on the race and reminded myself what I didn't like about the 5 and what I liked about the 4. As race time approached the 6 had dropped to underlay status as the 4 had steadily drifted up and was lingering at 8-1, still not enough for a wager. The 7 was pretty solid at 11-1 so he was my huckleberry for the win wager and the key horse in the exacta box in which I also included the 5 as a concession to the wisdom of the TVG commentators. After entering my bet in the TBA spreadsheet I turned back to the odds and saw that the 4 horse had now dropped to 11-1. Had I been gifted with the ability to see the future, this knowledge would've changed my bet, for the better, but I now I had to live with the hand I'd dealt myself.
Well not only the 1, but the 2 and the 5 all raced for the lead and set some torrid fractions. The 6 trailed the lead group by about 3 lengths with the 7 a length further back. The 4 must've been somewhere in the back. As they came around the turn the 6 and 7 both made their runs and over took the lead group at the top of the stretch. I thought that was the way it would finish until I caught the 4 flying down the stretch. Now I was concerned because if the 7 finishes 3rd, I don't get paid. Fortunately, the 3 overtook the 6 and finished 2nd to the 4 turning my $1 exacta (actually $8 total in the exacta) into $112.20. Not a bad way to spend your lunch hour I'd say.
May the horse be with you
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Public Handicapper February 28th
Once again your intrepid handicapper is back with another collection of SWAG's for the publichandicapper.com contest.
This week we have two races each from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. One race at each is on the grass for older horses and the 2nd races are on the main track with Derby implications for 3 year olds.
Todd Pletcher's Take The Points was entered in both the Fountain of Youth and the Sham. However, Pletcher is opting for softer competition (IMHO) the Sham at SA.
So now for the Selections:
Race 8 at GP is the 150k Canadian Turf Hdcp.
I should point out right off the bat, for any who might be thinking of considering Delightful Kiss in this race that he, by the admission of his trainer in the DRF http://www.drf.com/news/article/101921.html, is not well intended for this race. Trainer Pete Anderson is considering this as a prep race for Dubai. Of course, he goes on to say something like, to paraphrase Drago from I think it is Rocky 4, if he wins he wins. But my experience has been, if a trainer comes out and tells you he's using a race as a prep race, believe him. Therefore, I don't even consider Delightful Kiss to be a win contender in this race. If we can throw out DK, at least from the win position, then that could make this a very nice betting race for those of us who are better read than others. That being said, here are my picks for the Canadian Turf Hdcp.
#8 Just As Well
3-1
9-2
#7 Vanquisher
7-2
5-1
#10 Bujagali
9-2
7-1
#2 Sporting Art
6-1
9-1
#8 Overachieved last out, Leparoux stays on. #7 May not belong here but showed big closing kick in winning last. #10 is the only committed pure front runner in the race. We have not had much rain this winter and speed is starting to hold up well on the turf course. Could be worth a shot at a price. #2 comes off a long layoff, but KD took the mount and Christophe Clemente is always dangerous on turf.
Next up is the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes to be run at a mile
#9 Capt. Candyman Can
2-1
3-1
#7 Beethoven
9-2
7-1
#3 Notonthesamepage
5-1
8-1
#2 Theregoesjojo
6-1
9-1
#9 has the tactical ability to deal with whatever pace scenario thrown at him. Watch a replay of the Hutcheson where he stalks the pace setters, throttles down to move to the outside, and then reaccelerates to win more easily that the lenghts beaten indicates. #7 got hung 4 wide into the first turn from the deadly outside post at the 1 1/8 Holy Bull. Made a good move to get into contention before running out of gas after running further than any other contender down stretch. #3 May have the early run to avoid the pitfalls of coming out of the 1M chute from an inside post, but there is a lot of speed in this race so he'll need a perfect trip.#2 had plenty left in the tank while winning last out. Not as accomplished as some others here but should be coming at the end.
Over at the other coast. No, not Tampa. The OTHER coast
The 100k Crystal Water Handicap for older California Bredsa
#6 Lucky J H
2-1
3-1
#4 Liberian Freighter
3-1
9-2
#5 Bold Cheiftan
7-2
5-1
#6 Shows a versatile running style and is capable of adjusting to the existing pace condition of the race. Comes 3rd off layoff for Carla Gaines and I can excuse last effort on an off Turf Course #4 should have the controlling speed in a relatively light field, seems to make it a habit of fading near the end but could go wire to wire if allowed to relax early #5 would probably beat this field for fun if well intended in first race after a 4 month hiatus. Might win any way, but I'd need a price for this race.
And last but not least.
The G3 Sham
P# 9th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#12 Take The Points
3-2
5-2
#3 The Pamplemousse
3-2
5-2
I really see this as a two horse race. The Pamplemousse had it all his own way getting to control the pace in a short field for the G3 San Rafael. Therefore the strength of that performance may be overrated. Take The Points was also entered in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but perhaps Pletcher sees some easy pickin's in moving out west instead. Other than these two, it is really hard to make a case for anyone else in the race from my POV.
This week we have two races each from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. One race at each is on the grass for older horses and the 2nd races are on the main track with Derby implications for 3 year olds.
Todd Pletcher's Take The Points was entered in both the Fountain of Youth and the Sham. However, Pletcher is opting for softer competition (IMHO) the Sham at SA.
So now for the Selections:
Race 8 at GP is the 150k Canadian Turf Hdcp.
I should point out right off the bat, for any who might be thinking of considering Delightful Kiss in this race that he, by the admission of his trainer in the DRF http://www.drf.com/news/article/101921.html, is not well intended for this race. Trainer Pete Anderson is considering this as a prep race for Dubai. Of course, he goes on to say something like, to paraphrase Drago from I think it is Rocky 4, if he wins he wins. But my experience has been, if a trainer comes out and tells you he's using a race as a prep race, believe him. Therefore, I don't even consider Delightful Kiss to be a win contender in this race. If we can throw out DK, at least from the win position, then that could make this a very nice betting race for those of us who are better read than others. That being said, here are my picks for the Canadian Turf Hdcp.
#8 Just As Well
3-1
9-2
#7 Vanquisher
7-2
5-1
#10 Bujagali
9-2
7-1
#2 Sporting Art
6-1
9-1
#8 Overachieved last out, Leparoux stays on. #7 May not belong here but showed big closing kick in winning last. #10 is the only committed pure front runner in the race. We have not had much rain this winter and speed is starting to hold up well on the turf course. Could be worth a shot at a price. #2 comes off a long layoff, but KD took the mount and Christophe Clemente is always dangerous on turf.
Next up is the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes to be run at a mile
#9 Capt. Candyman Can
2-1
3-1
#7 Beethoven
9-2
7-1
#3 Notonthesamepage
5-1
8-1
#2 Theregoesjojo
6-1
9-1
#9 has the tactical ability to deal with whatever pace scenario thrown at him. Watch a replay of the Hutcheson where he stalks the pace setters, throttles down to move to the outside, and then reaccelerates to win more easily that the lenghts beaten indicates. #7 got hung 4 wide into the first turn from the deadly outside post at the 1 1/8 Holy Bull. Made a good move to get into contention before running out of gas after running further than any other contender down stretch. #3 May have the early run to avoid the pitfalls of coming out of the 1M chute from an inside post, but there is a lot of speed in this race so he'll need a perfect trip.#2 had plenty left in the tank while winning last out. Not as accomplished as some others here but should be coming at the end.
Over at the other coast. No, not Tampa. The OTHER coast
The 100k Crystal Water Handicap for older California Bredsa
#6 Lucky J H
2-1
3-1
#4 Liberian Freighter
3-1
9-2
#5 Bold Cheiftan
7-2
5-1
#6 Shows a versatile running style and is capable of adjusting to the existing pace condition of the race. Comes 3rd off layoff for Carla Gaines and I can excuse last effort on an off Turf Course #4 should have the controlling speed in a relatively light field, seems to make it a habit of fading near the end but could go wire to wire if allowed to relax early #5 would probably beat this field for fun if well intended in first race after a 4 month hiatus. Might win any way, but I'd need a price for this race.
And last but not least.
The G3 Sham
P# 9th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#12 Take The Points
3-2
5-2
#3 The Pamplemousse
3-2
5-2
I really see this as a two horse race. The Pamplemousse had it all his own way getting to control the pace in a short field for the G3 San Rafael. Therefore the strength of that performance may be overrated. Take The Points was also entered in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but perhaps Pletcher sees some easy pickin's in moving out west instead. Other than these two, it is really hard to make a case for anyone else in the race from my POV.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Wacky Betting System #1
As a frequent guest of local South Florida horse race betting establishments, I have met and conversed with many fellow handicappers. We all have our own methods of selecting winners. Personally, I have to sift through many details in the form before arriving at my contender selections. Occassionally, I run into people who are willing to share their methods. As I come across these techniques, I'll share them with you, dear readers. I will call the first method the Biorhythm number method.
Day 1 of the Breeder's cup, I had settled into my seat in the simulcast room and had already played a couple of races at Calder Race Course when an interesting characater sat at the station next to me. The gentleman was slightly less than average height and slightly more than average weight (aren't we all). On top of his head he sported what I like to refer to as the baby-boomer version of a comb-over. You know what I'm talking about. Rather than combing the hair from the side over the bald spot the hair is pulled straight back in tied into what is usually a stunted attempt at a pony tail.
The first thing he asked me for was the number of the winner in the first race at Calder. I told him that the 3 horse had one the first race, but thinking, perhaps, he was interested in track biases, I pointed out to him that the 3 had broken from the inside post due to late scratches in the race.
That information didn't seem to interest him at all. Instead he started going through the race results on the screen of all the races of all the tracks and writing down the first four finishers of each race without regard to distance, surface, or any other normal racing factor.
He introduced himself to me as Sal, a hair stylist (I think) and artist who had been playing the races for years. He even claimed to have done portraits of some jockey whose name I don't recall who used to race a lot at Gulfstream Park. Of course being at the race track, I take everything with a grain of salt, but, still, I had no particular reason disbelieve him.
Sal, being a talkative sort then explained his betting system to me. Apparently, Sal is of the belief that on any given day, certain numbers are more likely to come in than others. The reason has nothing to do with track conditions, trainers, jockeys, post-positions, or anything else racing related. Rather, he attributed the reason to biorhythms.
I don't think I've heard the term biorhythm since the early '70's which sort of gives you an idea of where Sal was coming from. The system was basically writing down the top finishers of every race at every track and after giving the racing form a cursory glance to make sure the hopeful number didn't belong to a totally hopeless horse construct trifecta bets either boxing contenders of keying off of a contender or two in every race he could catch around the country.
It didn't take Sal long to blow through his first $200.00 with this method, but he was still optimistic that if he persisted long enough he would hit that box car trifecta. He had done so frequently in the past, and actually, I'm quite sure he has since every once in a while even a blind squirell will find a nut.
Underterred Sal deposited another sum of money into his day account. I'm not sure how much. At least $100.00 maybe as much as $200.00. At first he remained optimistic, but as his balance began dwindling, so did his demeanor. Toward the end of his 2nd deposit he was beginning to ask me my opinion on certain races. I'm afraid I couldn't help him much since I had only handicapped the Calder and Breeder's cup races, but I gave him my opinion when it was available. Also, since I play horizontally (Pick-3 or pick 4) rather than vertically, it is a mistake to try to convert my selections to trifecta bets, although even I can get lucky once in a while.
Poor Sal drained his account a 2nd time and reluctantly returned to deposit still more money in his account. Sal is already way past the point where I would've called it a day. I have a lot of confidence in my play and recognize that I am going to go through cold streaks and hot streaks. It is the nature of the game. However, if I seem to be going through a cold period I will back down my wagers while I try to figure out what I'm missing. Not so with Sal. Confidence in one's approach is important; however, so is objectivity and discretion.
Sal was doing no better with his third deposit and was now feeling the need to point out to me how close he had been coming. If only this horse had not finished in the money or if only he had boxed this group instead of keying a horse. I'm not quite sure if he trying to convince me or himself, but as is third deposit dwindled, so did his resolve. By the end of the third deposit, Sal was quite defeated.
I commiserated with Sal and told him surely he would have better luck tomorrow which is probably true since he couldn't have had worse. But Sal wasn't coming back tomorrow.
Sal has a problem. Sal is looking for quick easy payoffs and is not willing to make the effort to actually understand a race in all its facets such as speed, pace, class, and conditions. Its much easier just to play numbers. No homework is required. Actually, in a way Sal is a throwback to a time when horse racing had much less competition for the gambler's dollars. Sal would be just as happy, or miserable, playing slot machines and lotteries. He just hasn't realized it yet.
Day 1 of the Breeder's cup, I had settled into my seat in the simulcast room and had already played a couple of races at Calder Race Course when an interesting characater sat at the station next to me. The gentleman was slightly less than average height and slightly more than average weight (aren't we all). On top of his head he sported what I like to refer to as the baby-boomer version of a comb-over. You know what I'm talking about. Rather than combing the hair from the side over the bald spot the hair is pulled straight back in tied into what is usually a stunted attempt at a pony tail.
The first thing he asked me for was the number of the winner in the first race at Calder. I told him that the 3 horse had one the first race, but thinking, perhaps, he was interested in track biases, I pointed out to him that the 3 had broken from the inside post due to late scratches in the race.
That information didn't seem to interest him at all. Instead he started going through the race results on the screen of all the races of all the tracks and writing down the first four finishers of each race without regard to distance, surface, or any other normal racing factor.
He introduced himself to me as Sal, a hair stylist (I think) and artist who had been playing the races for years. He even claimed to have done portraits of some jockey whose name I don't recall who used to race a lot at Gulfstream Park. Of course being at the race track, I take everything with a grain of salt, but, still, I had no particular reason disbelieve him.
Sal, being a talkative sort then explained his betting system to me. Apparently, Sal is of the belief that on any given day, certain numbers are more likely to come in than others. The reason has nothing to do with track conditions, trainers, jockeys, post-positions, or anything else racing related. Rather, he attributed the reason to biorhythms.
I don't think I've heard the term biorhythm since the early '70's which sort of gives you an idea of where Sal was coming from. The system was basically writing down the top finishers of every race at every track and after giving the racing form a cursory glance to make sure the hopeful number didn't belong to a totally hopeless horse construct trifecta bets either boxing contenders of keying off of a contender or two in every race he could catch around the country.
It didn't take Sal long to blow through his first $200.00 with this method, but he was still optimistic that if he persisted long enough he would hit that box car trifecta. He had done so frequently in the past, and actually, I'm quite sure he has since every once in a while even a blind squirell will find a nut.
Underterred Sal deposited another sum of money into his day account. I'm not sure how much. At least $100.00 maybe as much as $200.00. At first he remained optimistic, but as his balance began dwindling, so did his demeanor. Toward the end of his 2nd deposit he was beginning to ask me my opinion on certain races. I'm afraid I couldn't help him much since I had only handicapped the Calder and Breeder's cup races, but I gave him my opinion when it was available. Also, since I play horizontally (Pick-3 or pick 4) rather than vertically, it is a mistake to try to convert my selections to trifecta bets, although even I can get lucky once in a while.
Poor Sal drained his account a 2nd time and reluctantly returned to deposit still more money in his account. Sal is already way past the point where I would've called it a day. I have a lot of confidence in my play and recognize that I am going to go through cold streaks and hot streaks. It is the nature of the game. However, if I seem to be going through a cold period I will back down my wagers while I try to figure out what I'm missing. Not so with Sal. Confidence in one's approach is important; however, so is objectivity and discretion.
Sal was doing no better with his third deposit and was now feeling the need to point out to me how close he had been coming. If only this horse had not finished in the money or if only he had boxed this group instead of keying a horse. I'm not quite sure if he trying to convince me or himself, but as is third deposit dwindled, so did his resolve. By the end of the third deposit, Sal was quite defeated.
I commiserated with Sal and told him surely he would have better luck tomorrow which is probably true since he couldn't have had worse. But Sal wasn't coming back tomorrow.
Sal has a problem. Sal is looking for quick easy payoffs and is not willing to make the effort to actually understand a race in all its facets such as speed, pace, class, and conditions. Its much easier just to play numbers. No homework is required. Actually, in a way Sal is a throwback to a time when horse racing had much less competition for the gambler's dollars. Sal would be just as happy, or miserable, playing slot machines and lotteries. He just hasn't realized it yet.
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