Quickly back with the last 3 races of Calder's Summit of Speed.
The Carry Back Stakes, Race 9 on your program consists of D' Funnybone and 4 pretenders necessary to fill the race. D' Funnybone consistently runs 6f almost 2 seconds faster than any of the others. The only way to play this race is to use D' Funnybone as a single in your Pick 4
As I said this is just a quickie as I would like to take a look at todays Belmont Card before heading to the races.
For the G3 Azalea Stakes #5 Buckleupbuttercup turns back in distance and trainer Eddie Kenneally is 33% with the Route to Sprint maneuver. #8 Pica Slew blistered the track here in the Leave Me Alone Stakes on Pre-View day so look for another good showing from her. Finally Bronx City Girl is first of the claim for Marty Wolfson. Marty doesn't play the claiming game very often but he does it at a 78% success rate next out. Still #6BCG has not proven herself in any way in stakes competition and only merits 3rd choice.
Odds
#5 Buckleupbuttercup play at 2/1 or better
#8 Pica Slew play at 9/2 or better
#6 Bronx City Girl plat at 9/1 or better.
The 11th race, The Princess Rooney Handicap-G1, is a good contentious affair. Again there are 6 or maybe 7 that have legit chances here, but I have to settle on only 3 or in this case 4 contenders. #7 Dr. Zic is one who didn't make the cut although I wouldn't be surprised if she wires the field. #13 First Passage is a horse for the course, but I think her late closing running style combined with the far outside draw hurts her chances here. Still watch for the weather, a drying track at Calder can do funny things to the track profile, and for scratches which may move First Passage a few lanes closer to the rail.
The 4 I settled on are #8 Dubai Majesty, almost another horse for the course with 3 wins in 8 races coming out of a G3 win in the Winning Colors at Churchill Downs. #9 Warbling who is probably as good as if not better than Dubai Majesty, just don't know how she'll handle the track. #5 Mother Ruth who just has the look of a horse that has suddenly learned what its all about. and #4 Hour Glass who is 4 of 5 at the distance and comes of a G2 win at Belmont, Vagrancy Handicap.
Playable odds
#8 Dubai Majesty 9/2
#9 Warbling 5/1
#5 Mother Ruth 7/1
#4 Hour Glass 8/1
That's all today.
I'm gone
Showing posts with label Summit of Speed. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Summit of Speed. Show all posts
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Grade 2 Smile Sprint Handicap from Calder Race Course
On July 10 Calder Race Course (and casino) will be holding their annual Summit of Speed. This year I will bring some of my feelings on the races beginning today with Race 10 in your program, the Smile Sprint Handicap. As is my custom, I will be attending the races live and might even stray from the simulcast monitors long enough to go down and look at the horses if it's not raining. Look for me. I'll have on the sunglasses and the brown HANA (Horseplayers Association of North America) cap. Speaking of HANA. After this day is over, I am going to write an article regarding my take on the day and how well, or poorly Calder Race Course (and casino) handled what should be a large crowd and submit it to HANA for posting on their website.
The Smile Sprint looks to be an exciting race on paper. 13 are entered. Personally I'd like to see at least 5 of the entries scratched as I don't think they really belong in this race. Rusty Charlie was passed as if he was standing still when he faced of against Big Drama in what was certainly a tune up race for the latter 2 back. Trainer Francisco Machado then foolishly brought ol' Rusty back on 7 days rest for another overnight try in which Charlie failed miserably. give ol' Rusty a break because he doesn't belong with these.
Sincero, Gato Go Win, How's Your Halo, Causeway's Kin, Not For Silver, and Golden Spikes are the other non-contenders of which, with varying degrees of vehemence, I would like to see exit the race gracefully pre-post.
This still leaves us with a nice contentious race consisting of #2 Go Go Shoot trained by Pletcher with David Cohen on board. I don't recall ever seeing Cohen ride for Pletcher, but, according to Brisnet's Ultimate PP's he's done 15 times in the last 60 days and done it quite well with a 45% win rate. Go Go Shoot has some flashy speed and should set the pace or certainly be a major pace factor on a speed favoring track. But there is a lot of other speed in this race and horses like Rusty Charlie, Causeway's Kin or Taqarub may force him to go faster than he'd like early on. Go Go Shoot has run twice before on the Calder Course and has yet to show any particular liking for the surface. I think Saturday will be more or the same in that regard for Go Go Shoot.
#13 Snapshot is the other horse in this race I think could win but probably won't. If all 13 go in this race I see him getting hung out wide on the turn considering a fast early pace will make that turn come faster than someone from the far outside probably wants it to.
Now for the primary contenders. The interesting horse in this race is #3 Mambo Meister ridden by local perennial jockey leader Manoel Cruz and trained by Phillip Gleaves. Mambo Meister has 9 wins in 29 starts and I think nearly all of them have come on this track (you can check that if you want too). In any event, I do know that Mambo Meister is 6 for 9 at CRC and no rider knows this track better than Manny Cruz. Especially if it rains. What is interesting is that Mambo Meister has mostly been a router up to now. However the workout line shows 4 works since his last outing a 4 furlong and three 3 furlong works including a blistering 34 sec sprint on June 28. I don't usually pay much attention to workouts, but this caught my eye enough to make Mambo Meister the #4 contender at 6-1 odds, play him at 9-1 or better.
The #3 contender is #7 Taqarub trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and ridden by Edgar Prado. Winner of his last out on Preakness day at 13-1 and being recently flattered by Roaring Lion at Monmouth this 4 year old colt is 4 for 5 at the distance and 1 for 1 on off tracks which is something to pay attention to at CRC in the Summer time. Taqarub is 5-1 on my line play him at 8-1 or better
The co-#1 contender is #8 Congressional Page (Trombetta/Albarado). Congressional Page has never lost at this distance and is 2 for 2 on off tracks. Congressional Page is a pressing type with the tactical speed to stay close enough to catch the front runners. I think the race sets up for him from a pace stand point. Congressional Page burned up the track in his last out at Monmouth covering 6f in 1:09.4. I make CP co favorite at 3-1, play at 9/2 or better with #10 Big Drama.
#10 Big Drama (Fawkes/Coa) romped easily past ol' Rusty Charlie in a leisurely 1:10.6 in the Ponche Hdcp. I watched that race and note that he could've gone faster, he just didn't have to.
Big Drama is a G2 winner who just loves CRC and a definite horse for the course with 5 wins in 6 tries. As a 2 year old Big Drama dominated the Florida Stallion Stakes Series. Big Drama is 3 for 3 at this distance and along with being the horse for the course becomes my co-favorite at 3-1, play at 9/2 or better.
To some these odds may seem a little high and you don't want to sit out this race. Really though, there are 6 solid choices in this race that should take serious money. I feel pretty certain there will be an overlay to be found among these four, maybe even two. Hold out for a price because I think this race will be too tight to be eatin' any low-priced chalk.
Later
The Smile Sprint looks to be an exciting race on paper. 13 are entered. Personally I'd like to see at least 5 of the entries scratched as I don't think they really belong in this race. Rusty Charlie was passed as if he was standing still when he faced of against Big Drama in what was certainly a tune up race for the latter 2 back. Trainer Francisco Machado then foolishly brought ol' Rusty back on 7 days rest for another overnight try in which Charlie failed miserably. give ol' Rusty a break because he doesn't belong with these.
Sincero, Gato Go Win, How's Your Halo, Causeway's Kin, Not For Silver, and Golden Spikes are the other non-contenders of which, with varying degrees of vehemence, I would like to see exit the race gracefully pre-post.
This still leaves us with a nice contentious race consisting of #2 Go Go Shoot trained by Pletcher with David Cohen on board. I don't recall ever seeing Cohen ride for Pletcher, but, according to Brisnet's Ultimate PP's he's done 15 times in the last 60 days and done it quite well with a 45% win rate. Go Go Shoot has some flashy speed and should set the pace or certainly be a major pace factor on a speed favoring track. But there is a lot of other speed in this race and horses like Rusty Charlie, Causeway's Kin or Taqarub may force him to go faster than he'd like early on. Go Go Shoot has run twice before on the Calder Course and has yet to show any particular liking for the surface. I think Saturday will be more or the same in that regard for Go Go Shoot.
#13 Snapshot is the other horse in this race I think could win but probably won't. If all 13 go in this race I see him getting hung out wide on the turn considering a fast early pace will make that turn come faster than someone from the far outside probably wants it to.
Now for the primary contenders. The interesting horse in this race is #3 Mambo Meister ridden by local perennial jockey leader Manoel Cruz and trained by Phillip Gleaves. Mambo Meister has 9 wins in 29 starts and I think nearly all of them have come on this track (you can check that if you want too). In any event, I do know that Mambo Meister is 6 for 9 at CRC and no rider knows this track better than Manny Cruz. Especially if it rains. What is interesting is that Mambo Meister has mostly been a router up to now. However the workout line shows 4 works since his last outing a 4 furlong and three 3 furlong works including a blistering 34 sec sprint on June 28. I don't usually pay much attention to workouts, but this caught my eye enough to make Mambo Meister the #4 contender at 6-1 odds, play him at 9-1 or better.
The #3 contender is #7 Taqarub trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and ridden by Edgar Prado. Winner of his last out on Preakness day at 13-1 and being recently flattered by Roaring Lion at Monmouth this 4 year old colt is 4 for 5 at the distance and 1 for 1 on off tracks which is something to pay attention to at CRC in the Summer time. Taqarub is 5-1 on my line play him at 8-1 or better
The co-#1 contender is #8 Congressional Page (Trombetta/Albarado). Congressional Page has never lost at this distance and is 2 for 2 on off tracks. Congressional Page is a pressing type with the tactical speed to stay close enough to catch the front runners. I think the race sets up for him from a pace stand point. Congressional Page burned up the track in his last out at Monmouth covering 6f in 1:09.4. I make CP co favorite at 3-1, play at 9/2 or better with #10 Big Drama.
#10 Big Drama (Fawkes/Coa) romped easily past ol' Rusty Charlie in a leisurely 1:10.6 in the Ponche Hdcp. I watched that race and note that he could've gone faster, he just didn't have to.
Big Drama is a G2 winner who just loves CRC and a definite horse for the course with 5 wins in 6 tries. As a 2 year old Big Drama dominated the Florida Stallion Stakes Series. Big Drama is 3 for 3 at this distance and along with being the horse for the course becomes my co-favorite at 3-1, play at 9/2 or better.
To some these odds may seem a little high and you don't want to sit out this race. Really though, there are 6 solid choices in this race that should take serious money. I feel pretty certain there will be an overlay to be found among these four, maybe even two. Hold out for a price because I think this race will be too tight to be eatin' any low-priced chalk.
Later
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Summit Of Speed and PH Picks for July 11
Another Saturday, another day of big stakes and small wagers. Last week was a good one, let's go for two in a row. Starting with the Public Handicapper races for today.
1 3/8 Mile (Inner Turf) Man O War G1 Race 7 at Belmont Park
Gio Ponti
5-2
4-1
Midships
4-1
6-1
Quijano
9-2
7-1
Dancing Forever
5-1
8-1
Shapes up to be a competitive race in which any of 6 horses has a legit shot. Someone will need a good trip. Homefield advantage goes to Gio Ponti with Ramon Dominquez aboard. GP comes off a G1 win in the Manhattan and is 3 for 4 over the course. He is stretching out an extra furlong for the first time, but I don't think that will be a problem. The hot horse is Midships coming off 3 straight grade wins. Figure pattern suggests Midships may not have enough to win this race. German bred Quijano is 6 for 6 at the distance and a Group 1 winner at Milan. The gelding just missed at the Northern Dancer G1 last year at Woodbine and comes back to the states for another go. Quijano will be my PH pick. Dancing Forever comes back 2nd off layoff from a good Breeder's Cup Turf effort. Last race was clearly a tune up for bigger things, and this may be it. You can also throw Grand Courturier and Marsh Side into the mix as well, but you have to narrow it down somehow, and sometimes hard decisions have to be made.
1 Mile Turf Battlefield Stakes 70k Monmouth PP 4:20
#8 Get Serious
5-2
4-1
#9 Jet Propulsion
4-1
6-1
#6 Independent George
9-2
7-1
#3 Steve's Double
5-1
8-1
Get Serious is our horse for the course with 4 wins in 6 tries including a similar type race 2 back. Get Serious along with Jet Propulsion will both be aiming to set the early fractions and Get Serious has the advantage of being inside JP. Truth is, this race is set up nicely for a closer such as Independent George who will be my PH selection. For Seinfeld fans Independent George is also the hunch play of the day. Steve's Double is coming off a long layoff, but has won richer races than this one and trainer Ronny Werner is 27% with a +ROI with layoffs of greater than 90 days. Elvis Trujillo in the irons doesn't hurt the chances either.
1 1/4 Mile (Turf) Arlington Handicap G3 6:40
#12 Cosmonaut
5-2
4-1
# 13 Thabazimbi
4-1
6-1
#9 Just As Well
9-2
7-1
#11 Stream Cat
5-1
8-1
One of the good things about the Arlington turf course at this distance is there does not appear to be any significant post position bias. This is a good thing as all my contenders for this race will be starting from the outer posts. Cosmonaut finds an easier spot to run than last out when he faced the likes of Gio Ponti and Marsh Side in the Manhattan. Cosmonaut is 2 for 4 on the course and 2 for 6 at the distance and has Robbie Albarado to guide him. #13 Thazimbi has been freshened after giving a good effort last out in the Louisville G3. Should like the distance and Leparoux is one of the best. Just As Well has yet to win this year, but showed some promise of improvement in his last two outings. Stream Cat won this race last year off a layoff and hopes to do the same again this year.
1 1/4 Mile Hollywood Gold Cup G1 7:30
Hol G1 AW
7:30
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#10 Life Is Sweet
5-2
4-1
#4 Bullsbay
4-1
6-1
#5 Parading
9-2
7-1
#12 Informed
5-1
8-1
A very competitive race, but strengthwise I think it is lacking in strength for a G1 affair. I think this is why Shirreffs has chosen this spot to enter his 2nd best filly Life Is Sweet who was 2nd best to Zenyatta last out. Bullsbay will be a force to be reckoned with if he can run back to his recent performances. I could rank Parading higher, but not knowing how he will handle the cushion track caused me to downgrade him just a little. However, Kent Desormeaux knows how to ride and if he has any affinity for the course he'll be there in the mix at the end. Informed will be hampered by starting from the 12th post, but the G2 Californian winner is 3 for 7 on the track and should have a shot. Mast Track and Tres Borrachos are two other to keep in mind for Trifecta purposes.
And now for some Summit of Speed Racing
5f (Turf) Bob Umphrey Turf Spring Championship Handicap
#5 Mr. Nightlinger
5-2
4-1
#8 Possetothemax
9-2
7-1
#3 Midnight Ridge
4-1
6-1
#7 Ron Bob And Dave
5-1
8-1
If this race stays on the Turf, which as of this writing it appears that it will, than forget the odds line as it pertains to Mr. Nightlinger, he is clearly the best in the field. That being said, Possetothemax is 3 for 4 on CRC Turf including an overnight win last out and should be hanging around for at least a minor award. Midnight Ridge gets rider Paco Lopez aboard. He will be contending for the early lead, and Paco will have him hugging the rail all the way if he can. However the turns on the turf course are tight which is probably why runners in these 5f sprints at CRC generally do better starting from the outside. Finally I'll thrown Ron Bob And Dave shipping in from Hollywood to make his stakes debut. He's run some nice figures and could take advantage of an early speed duel. But really, all these other guys are racing for 2nd IMOH
I'm going to skip the 5f J J's Dream for 2yo fillies. It appears to be a major crap shoot in my opinion.
6 f Azalea Stakes G3 for 3yo fillies
#7 Kays and Jays
5-2
4-1
#3 Royal Card
9-2
7-1
#2 Underground
4-1
6-1
#9 First Passage
5-1
8-1
Kays and Jays turnsback after being overmatched in Hollywood and comes back to her preferred distance of 6f. Jose Lezcano gets the call. Royal Card is one of 3 Marty Wolfson entries in this race and has really awakened under Marty's tutelage after he took over from Todd Pletcher 2 races ago. Underground maybe taking a huge step up in only her 2nd race, but the Baffert trainee ran big first out, so why not. Mike Smith is the rider. First Passage is another Wolfson runner. She is a winner of an overnight 100k stakes last out, but the outside post could hinder her here.
6f Carry Back Stakes G2 for 3yo 3:56
#1 You Lucky Mann
5-2
4-1
#5 Not For Silver
9-2
7-1
#2 Ask Joe
4-1
6-1
#4 Prince Joshua
5-1
8-1
You really have to watch the last race between You Lucky Mann and Prince Joshua to believe it. You Lucky Mann caught Prince Joshua on the turn into the stretch. Jockey Jermaine Bridgmohan appeared, to my eyes, to relax on YLM thinking it was over, but it was not as Prince Joshua fought back and JB had to get really busy to pull the race out. Still YLM is the better horse. Not For Silver comes out of a really nice race on Preakness day and may get the gold today. Ask Joe, the Fair Grounds Sugar Bowl winner, ridden by Paco Lopez is one that could benefit from a hot pace scenario. Prince Joshua showed a lot of courage last out and could prevail if he can avoid a bounce out of that race.
6f Princess Rooney Hdcp G1 for fillies and mares 3 up 4:26
#8 Dubai Majesty
5-2
4-1
#6 Game Face
9-2
7-1
#7 Keep The Peace
4-1
6-1
#1 Jessica Is Back
5-1
8-1
Well, I've been known to go off half-cocked before and I am doing so again. I don't think Indian Blessing will be at her best today. I was informed that Baffert excused the last effort due to a leg infection; however the infection didn't seem to effect her the first 5 furlongs of that race. In addition, I still don't like the last workout which was nearly 2 seconds off the previous. It was still good for most, but not a Baffert type work. So, I'm looking to Dubai Majesty who showed some guts in the Winning Colors last out. Jamie (don't blame me) Theriot has won on her before, and if I'm right about IB, he should win on her again. Todd Pletcher's Game Face is a consistent graded stakes runner and figures to do well here. Keep The Peace ran 3rd in DM's last race and would've finished, at least, 2nd had she not been impeded by Lady Chace in the stretch, so you got to give her a chance here. Finally, Wolfson runner Jessica Is Back has some speed, has the rail and Paco Lopez. She, Could, Go, All, The, Way!
6f Smile Sprint Handicap-G2 4:55
#4 Benny The Bull
5-2
4-1
#5 Eaton's Gift
9-2
7-1
#6 Yesbyjimminy
4-1
6-1
#2 How's Your Halo
5-1
8-1
Once again, forget the odds line for Benny. This one is Benny The Bull and the usual suspects. Eaton's Gift comes Turf to Dirt and 2nd off layoff for Dale Romans and Jose Lezcano. Then Yesbyjimminy and How's Your Halo round out the usual suspects. Ikigai, or maybe Icky Guy, does not appear to be the same horse that won the Mr. Prospector back in January at GulfStream.
Well that about covers it for today. You've certainly gotten more than your money's worth and I hope you find something in all of this that can be used to your benefit.
1 3/8 Mile (Inner Turf) Man O War G1 Race 7 at Belmont Park
Gio Ponti
5-2
4-1
Midships
4-1
6-1
Quijano
9-2
7-1
Dancing Forever
5-1
8-1
Shapes up to be a competitive race in which any of 6 horses has a legit shot. Someone will need a good trip. Homefield advantage goes to Gio Ponti with Ramon Dominquez aboard. GP comes off a G1 win in the Manhattan and is 3 for 4 over the course. He is stretching out an extra furlong for the first time, but I don't think that will be a problem. The hot horse is Midships coming off 3 straight grade wins. Figure pattern suggests Midships may not have enough to win this race. German bred Quijano is 6 for 6 at the distance and a Group 1 winner at Milan. The gelding just missed at the Northern Dancer G1 last year at Woodbine and comes back to the states for another go. Quijano will be my PH pick. Dancing Forever comes back 2nd off layoff from a good Breeder's Cup Turf effort. Last race was clearly a tune up for bigger things, and this may be it. You can also throw Grand Courturier and Marsh Side into the mix as well, but you have to narrow it down somehow, and sometimes hard decisions have to be made.
1 Mile Turf Battlefield Stakes 70k Monmouth PP 4:20
#8 Get Serious
5-2
4-1
#9 Jet Propulsion
4-1
6-1
#6 Independent George
9-2
7-1
#3 Steve's Double
5-1
8-1
Get Serious is our horse for the course with 4 wins in 6 tries including a similar type race 2 back. Get Serious along with Jet Propulsion will both be aiming to set the early fractions and Get Serious has the advantage of being inside JP. Truth is, this race is set up nicely for a closer such as Independent George who will be my PH selection. For Seinfeld fans Independent George is also the hunch play of the day. Steve's Double is coming off a long layoff, but has won richer races than this one and trainer Ronny Werner is 27% with a +ROI with layoffs of greater than 90 days. Elvis Trujillo in the irons doesn't hurt the chances either.
1 1/4 Mile (Turf) Arlington Handicap G3 6:40
#12 Cosmonaut
5-2
4-1
# 13 Thabazimbi
4-1
6-1
#9 Just As Well
9-2
7-1
#11 Stream Cat
5-1
8-1
One of the good things about the Arlington turf course at this distance is there does not appear to be any significant post position bias. This is a good thing as all my contenders for this race will be starting from the outer posts. Cosmonaut finds an easier spot to run than last out when he faced the likes of Gio Ponti and Marsh Side in the Manhattan. Cosmonaut is 2 for 4 on the course and 2 for 6 at the distance and has Robbie Albarado to guide him. #13 Thazimbi has been freshened after giving a good effort last out in the Louisville G3. Should like the distance and Leparoux is one of the best. Just As Well has yet to win this year, but showed some promise of improvement in his last two outings. Stream Cat won this race last year off a layoff and hopes to do the same again this year.
1 1/4 Mile Hollywood Gold Cup G1 7:30
Hol G1 AW
7:30
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#10 Life Is Sweet
5-2
4-1
#4 Bullsbay
4-1
6-1
#5 Parading
9-2
7-1
#12 Informed
5-1
8-1
A very competitive race, but strengthwise I think it is lacking in strength for a G1 affair. I think this is why Shirreffs has chosen this spot to enter his 2nd best filly Life Is Sweet who was 2nd best to Zenyatta last out. Bullsbay will be a force to be reckoned with if he can run back to his recent performances. I could rank Parading higher, but not knowing how he will handle the cushion track caused me to downgrade him just a little. However, Kent Desormeaux knows how to ride and if he has any affinity for the course he'll be there in the mix at the end. Informed will be hampered by starting from the 12th post, but the G2 Californian winner is 3 for 7 on the track and should have a shot. Mast Track and Tres Borrachos are two other to keep in mind for Trifecta purposes.
And now for some Summit of Speed Racing
5f (Turf) Bob Umphrey Turf Spring Championship Handicap
#5 Mr. Nightlinger
5-2
4-1
#8 Possetothemax
9-2
7-1
#3 Midnight Ridge
4-1
6-1
#7 Ron Bob And Dave
5-1
8-1
If this race stays on the Turf, which as of this writing it appears that it will, than forget the odds line as it pertains to Mr. Nightlinger, he is clearly the best in the field. That being said, Possetothemax is 3 for 4 on CRC Turf including an overnight win last out and should be hanging around for at least a minor award. Midnight Ridge gets rider Paco Lopez aboard. He will be contending for the early lead, and Paco will have him hugging the rail all the way if he can. However the turns on the turf course are tight which is probably why runners in these 5f sprints at CRC generally do better starting from the outside. Finally I'll thrown Ron Bob And Dave shipping in from Hollywood to make his stakes debut. He's run some nice figures and could take advantage of an early speed duel. But really, all these other guys are racing for 2nd IMOH
I'm going to skip the 5f J J's Dream for 2yo fillies. It appears to be a major crap shoot in my opinion.
6 f Azalea Stakes G3 for 3yo fillies
#7 Kays and Jays
5-2
4-1
#3 Royal Card
9-2
7-1
#2 Underground
4-1
6-1
#9 First Passage
5-1
8-1
Kays and Jays turnsback after being overmatched in Hollywood and comes back to her preferred distance of 6f. Jose Lezcano gets the call. Royal Card is one of 3 Marty Wolfson entries in this race and has really awakened under Marty's tutelage after he took over from Todd Pletcher 2 races ago. Underground maybe taking a huge step up in only her 2nd race, but the Baffert trainee ran big first out, so why not. Mike Smith is the rider. First Passage is another Wolfson runner. She is a winner of an overnight 100k stakes last out, but the outside post could hinder her here.
6f Carry Back Stakes G2 for 3yo 3:56
#1 You Lucky Mann
5-2
4-1
#5 Not For Silver
9-2
7-1
#2 Ask Joe
4-1
6-1
#4 Prince Joshua
5-1
8-1
You really have to watch the last race between You Lucky Mann and Prince Joshua to believe it. You Lucky Mann caught Prince Joshua on the turn into the stretch. Jockey Jermaine Bridgmohan appeared, to my eyes, to relax on YLM thinking it was over, but it was not as Prince Joshua fought back and JB had to get really busy to pull the race out. Still YLM is the better horse. Not For Silver comes out of a really nice race on Preakness day and may get the gold today. Ask Joe, the Fair Grounds Sugar Bowl winner, ridden by Paco Lopez is one that could benefit from a hot pace scenario. Prince Joshua showed a lot of courage last out and could prevail if he can avoid a bounce out of that race.
6f Princess Rooney Hdcp G1 for fillies and mares 3 up 4:26
#8 Dubai Majesty
5-2
4-1
#6 Game Face
9-2
7-1
#7 Keep The Peace
4-1
6-1
#1 Jessica Is Back
5-1
8-1
Well, I've been known to go off half-cocked before and I am doing so again. I don't think Indian Blessing will be at her best today. I was informed that Baffert excused the last effort due to a leg infection; however the infection didn't seem to effect her the first 5 furlongs of that race. In addition, I still don't like the last workout which was nearly 2 seconds off the previous. It was still good for most, but not a Baffert type work. So, I'm looking to Dubai Majesty who showed some guts in the Winning Colors last out. Jamie (don't blame me) Theriot has won on her before, and if I'm right about IB, he should win on her again. Todd Pletcher's Game Face is a consistent graded stakes runner and figures to do well here. Keep The Peace ran 3rd in DM's last race and would've finished, at least, 2nd had she not been impeded by Lady Chace in the stretch, so you got to give her a chance here. Finally, Wolfson runner Jessica Is Back has some speed, has the rail and Paco Lopez. She, Could, Go, All, The, Way!
6f Smile Sprint Handicap-G2 4:55
#4 Benny The Bull
5-2
4-1
#5 Eaton's Gift
9-2
7-1
#6 Yesbyjimminy
4-1
6-1
#2 How's Your Halo
5-1
8-1
Once again, forget the odds line for Benny. This one is Benny The Bull and the usual suspects. Eaton's Gift comes Turf to Dirt and 2nd off layoff for Dale Romans and Jose Lezcano. Then Yesbyjimminy and How's Your Halo round out the usual suspects. Ikigai, or maybe Icky Guy, does not appear to be the same horse that won the Mr. Prospector back in January at GulfStream.
Well that about covers it for today. You've certainly gotten more than your money's worth and I hope you find something in all of this that can be used to your benefit.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Summit of Speed Preview
Back again after taking a licking on Belmont Day. I've tried to update the spreadsheet that shows my progress, but it is not functioning for me at the moment. I'll go back later. Long story short, I wagered on 4 of the 6 races passing the True North and the Acorn Stakes. Summer Bird was the near miss of the day. If only Charitable Man would have dropped one more tick to 4-1 than I would've had the win and exacta! Did manage the superfecta box. Too bad I didn't play it.
Ok, today's another day. Calder Race Course has 5 stakes races scheduled for its Summit of Speed preview. The HANA race of the week is the 200k Monmouth Stakes for 3 and up and was a fun race to handicap. Let's hope its a fun race to cash in on.
The HANA race is also one of the Public Handicapper races as well. 2 of those races are at Churchill, the Stephen Foster with Einstein running and the Regret Stakes. Finally, its the nightcap, for us East Coasters at Hollywood Park with the Grade 2 Californian Stakes for 3 and up.
So without further ado.
Race 3 at CRC: Blazing Sword Stakes, 55k on Turf for 3 and up.
CRC Race 3
1:44
#1 Mambo Meister
3-2
5-2
#10 Vanquisher
7-2
5-1
#4 Motovato
9-2
7-1
#1 Winner last out appears to be the best here #10 Non Graded stakes winnner is 50% ITM on Turf #4 Turf debut for Motovato has B rated Turf sire and is in good form. Include no.'s 6, 8, 9 for trifecta
Race 8 at Calder. The Unbridled Stakes 100k, 6f for 3 year olds. This race is a 4 horse affair not likely to offer value, but maybe a good free space for the pick 4.
CRC Race 8
4:16
#2 You Luckie Mann
1-1
3-2
#4 Prince Joshua
5-1
8-1
#3 Bidham
6-1
9-1
#2 Wolfson HFC and obvious top choice. #4 Prince Joshua turnsback in distance and could possibly be a good separator in the P4 as everyone will likely single the 2. #3 improving 3yo finished just behind 2nd choice last out
Race 9 at CRC is the 100k Leave Me Alone Stakes for 3yo fillies.
CRC Race 9
4:42
#7 Mine All Mine
7-5
2-1
#3 First Passage
7-2
5-1
#1Donttellmewhattodo
9-2
7-1
#7 finished 2nd to the 3 last out. 2nd off layoff should move forward off that race for 50% trainer Wesley Ward. Ward/Lopez was deadly combo last year. #3 stumbled at the start and won anyway would not be a shocker #1 Doug O'Neill shipper gets good post and looks to be getting better each race.
To keep the races in chronological order, we'll move up the coast to Monmouth for the 200k Monmouth Stakes, Turf for 3 and up. Note Richard's Kid is already a scratch.
MTH Race 9
4:50
#5 Strike A Deal
5-2
4-1
#1 Proudinsky
3-1
9-2
#7 Presious Passion
6-1
9-1
#6 Buddy's Home
6-1
9-1
Grand Couturier, 1st since Breeder's Cup is play against. Most likely tuning up for something bigger down the road #5 may want a little more distance, but has been running great lately. #1 ran into A class horses last out gets a little easier field here #7 Proven G2 horse and Elvis is a leading rider at MTH #6 2 for 3 on course won G3 2 back at GP
Then right back to CRC for Race 10 the 75k U Can do It Hdcp for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
CRC Race 10
5:08
#1 Marina Ballerina
6-5
9-5
#3 Jessica Is Back
4-1
6-1
#4 Orinoquia
5-1
8-1
#1 Won Coolair last out despite a very troubled trip. Looks clearly the best here and a P4 single. #3 Wolfson entry with go to rider Jermaine Bridgmohan aboard could be a threat #4 3rd off the layoff finished just a neck behind 2nd choice could turn the tables.
Race 10 Churchill G1 Stephen Foster Hdcp.
CD Race 10
5:29
#3 Einstein
3-1
9-2
#6 Bullsbay
7-2
5-1
#5 Researcher
9-2
7-1
#7 Asiatic Boy
6-1
9-1
#3 how can you pick against Einstein. A horse for any course considered better on grass but can hold his own with the best on dirt. #6 In great current form is 3 for 3 on the track and will have plenty of pace to run at. #5 I watched his last race at Charlestown and it was easier that it looked on paper. If the CT track record holder can transfer his form to CD, he'll be a force to be reckoned with. #7 is the wild card in this race not looking good enough to love and too good looking to ignore. Gets first lasix and I like the McLaughlin/Garcia combo
Rushing back to Calder for race 11 the 75k Ponche Hdcp for 3 and up.
CRC Race 11
5:34
#5 Yesbyjimminy
2-1
3-1
#2 Americanrevolution
5-2
4-1
#7 How's Your Halo
4-1
6-1
#5 has the proven ability to win this level race over the course, but the 6 yo gelding, #2, is 4 for 4 over the track and should be a threat. #7 is another Calder veteran who gets points for consistency. If the top two falter 7 will pick it up.
Race 11 The G3 Regret Stakes for 3yo Fillies. Note Excelente and Kiss Mine are scratched.
CD Race 11
5:58
#6 Oculuna
3-1
7-2
#10 Prytania
7-2
5-1
#5 Banker's Choice
4-1
6-1
#9 Keertana
6-1
9-1
#6 should set the pace in a paceless race and could run away if allowed to set easy early fractions. #10 will need some pace to run out. #5 Finished 3rd last out against better #9 Winner Alwn1x last out passed 4 horses down stretch
Finally out to the left coast for the Hollywood night cap the Grade 2 Californian Stakes for 3 and up
HOL Race 9
8:08
#2 Mast Track
3-1
9-2
#6 Song of Navaronne
7-2
5-1
#3 Rail Trip
9-2
7-1
#8 Ball Four
5-1
8-1
#2 Comes back to site of G1 win after a 2 month freshening. #6 Close on the 2's heels is #6 who finished a half length behind Its a Bird and Jonesboro at Lonestar. Main question is the surface. Pedigree is nothing special for AW surfaces. #3 Been watching this one all year. Speed to spare but the 8 horse is cut from the same cloth so it will be interesting to see if these two get suicidal on the front end or not.
My apologies for the less than detailed notes. As you can tell by my lack of posting and the time of this post, its been a hectic week.
Good Luck and enjoy the races.
Ok, today's another day. Calder Race Course has 5 stakes races scheduled for its Summit of Speed preview. The HANA race of the week is the 200k Monmouth Stakes for 3 and up and was a fun race to handicap. Let's hope its a fun race to cash in on.
The HANA race is also one of the Public Handicapper races as well. 2 of those races are at Churchill, the Stephen Foster with Einstein running and the Regret Stakes. Finally, its the nightcap, for us East Coasters at Hollywood Park with the Grade 2 Californian Stakes for 3 and up.
So without further ado.
Race 3 at CRC: Blazing Sword Stakes, 55k on Turf for 3 and up.
CRC Race 3
1:44
#1 Mambo Meister
3-2
5-2
#10 Vanquisher
7-2
5-1
#4 Motovato
9-2
7-1
#1 Winner last out appears to be the best here #10 Non Graded stakes winnner is 50% ITM on Turf #4 Turf debut for Motovato has B rated Turf sire and is in good form. Include no.'s 6, 8, 9 for trifecta
Race 8 at Calder. The Unbridled Stakes 100k, 6f for 3 year olds. This race is a 4 horse affair not likely to offer value, but maybe a good free space for the pick 4.
CRC Race 8
4:16
#2 You Luckie Mann
1-1
3-2
#4 Prince Joshua
5-1
8-1
#3 Bidham
6-1
9-1
#2 Wolfson HFC and obvious top choice. #4 Prince Joshua turnsback in distance and could possibly be a good separator in the P4 as everyone will likely single the 2. #3 improving 3yo finished just behind 2nd choice last out
Race 9 at CRC is the 100k Leave Me Alone Stakes for 3yo fillies.
CRC Race 9
4:42
#7 Mine All Mine
7-5
2-1
#3 First Passage
7-2
5-1
#1Donttellmewhattodo
9-2
7-1
#7 finished 2nd to the 3 last out. 2nd off layoff should move forward off that race for 50% trainer Wesley Ward. Ward/Lopez was deadly combo last year. #3 stumbled at the start and won anyway would not be a shocker #1 Doug O'Neill shipper gets good post and looks to be getting better each race.
To keep the races in chronological order, we'll move up the coast to Monmouth for the 200k Monmouth Stakes, Turf for 3 and up. Note Richard's Kid is already a scratch.
MTH Race 9
4:50
#5 Strike A Deal
5-2
4-1
#1 Proudinsky
3-1
9-2
#7 Presious Passion
6-1
9-1
#6 Buddy's Home
6-1
9-1
Grand Couturier, 1st since Breeder's Cup is play against. Most likely tuning up for something bigger down the road #5 may want a little more distance, but has been running great lately. #1 ran into A class horses last out gets a little easier field here #7 Proven G2 horse and Elvis is a leading rider at MTH #6 2 for 3 on course won G3 2 back at GP
Then right back to CRC for Race 10 the 75k U Can do It Hdcp for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
CRC Race 10
5:08
#1 Marina Ballerina
6-5
9-5
#3 Jessica Is Back
4-1
6-1
#4 Orinoquia
5-1
8-1
#1 Won Coolair last out despite a very troubled trip. Looks clearly the best here and a P4 single. #3 Wolfson entry with go to rider Jermaine Bridgmohan aboard could be a threat #4 3rd off the layoff finished just a neck behind 2nd choice could turn the tables.
Race 10 Churchill G1 Stephen Foster Hdcp.
CD Race 10
5:29
#3 Einstein
3-1
9-2
#6 Bullsbay
7-2
5-1
#5 Researcher
9-2
7-1
#7 Asiatic Boy
6-1
9-1
#3 how can you pick against Einstein. A horse for any course considered better on grass but can hold his own with the best on dirt. #6 In great current form is 3 for 3 on the track and will have plenty of pace to run at. #5 I watched his last race at Charlestown and it was easier that it looked on paper. If the CT track record holder can transfer his form to CD, he'll be a force to be reckoned with. #7 is the wild card in this race not looking good enough to love and too good looking to ignore. Gets first lasix and I like the McLaughlin/Garcia combo
Rushing back to Calder for race 11 the 75k Ponche Hdcp for 3 and up.
CRC Race 11
5:34
#5 Yesbyjimminy
2-1
3-1
#2 Americanrevolution
5-2
4-1
#7 How's Your Halo
4-1
6-1
#5 has the proven ability to win this level race over the course, but the 6 yo gelding, #2, is 4 for 4 over the track and should be a threat. #7 is another Calder veteran who gets points for consistency. If the top two falter 7 will pick it up.
Race 11 The G3 Regret Stakes for 3yo Fillies. Note Excelente and Kiss Mine are scratched.
CD Race 11
5:58
#6 Oculuna
3-1
7-2
#10 Prytania
7-2
5-1
#5 Banker's Choice
4-1
6-1
#9 Keertana
6-1
9-1
#6 should set the pace in a paceless race and could run away if allowed to set easy early fractions. #10 will need some pace to run out. #5 Finished 3rd last out against better #9 Winner Alwn1x last out passed 4 horses down stretch
Finally out to the left coast for the Hollywood night cap the Grade 2 Californian Stakes for 3 and up
HOL Race 9
8:08
#2 Mast Track
3-1
9-2
#6 Song of Navaronne
7-2
5-1
#3 Rail Trip
9-2
7-1
#8 Ball Four
5-1
8-1
#2 Comes back to site of G1 win after a 2 month freshening. #6 Close on the 2's heels is #6 who finished a half length behind Its a Bird and Jonesboro at Lonestar. Main question is the surface. Pedigree is nothing special for AW surfaces. #3 Been watching this one all year. Speed to spare but the 8 horse is cut from the same cloth so it will be interesting to see if these two get suicidal on the front end or not.
My apologies for the less than detailed notes. As you can tell by my lack of posting and the time of this post, its been a hectic week.
Good Luck and enjoy the races.
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