It's that quiet time between the Derby and the Preakness. Many of the trainers and owners playing it cagey in trying to decide whether to run in the Preakness or skip the middle and load up for the Belmont.
As for me, I stand by my position that Jackson Bend should have skipped the Derby and aimed directly for the Preakness. Conveyance and Noble's Promise are not in the Preakness. Ice Box is out and they are still on the fence regarding Lookin at Lucky and Jackson Bend. I think I saw Pleasant Prince will be in.
You probably know by now Eskendereya is retired to stud. Sad news for racing fans but good news that the injury is not catastrophic. Esky now gets to live the life of a king. Good for him.
A few selections for today.
In the Winter Melody Stakes at Delaware, I like the horse for the course and distance. Delaware Park has been a #5 Magicalcarpetride for the daughter of Smart Strike. Trainer Anthony Dutrow is 43% going turf to dirt. Strong move for Tony and you should get a reasonable price here. #3 Miss Match has been racing against better and appears to be the class in the race. Third choice #8 Mindy Sue has never finished out of the money in 8 trips to the post.
In the Unbridled Sidney at Chuchill Downs #2 Knockout Bertie has been knocking on the door for red-hot trainer Stephen Margolis. I think Sean Bridgmohan will get her to the wire first today. It's hard to pick against 2nd choice #5 Selva, but jockey Robby Albarado has been ice cold at Churchill so far and his record on Turf is less than stellar even in good cirmcumstances. Still, Selva comes out of the key race Bienville60k with a 2nd place finish, so maybe fortunes will turn for Robby today. #8 Candy Cane races for the first time under the tutelage of Rick Dutrow, which is always a live chance in my book.
Belmont Park brings us the G2 Dwyer Stakes for 3 year olds. #2 Drosselmeyer seems to be the one to beat, but you'll have to be willing to accept a fairly low price to back this one. Anything over 7/5 seems fair here. #5 Remand ran a good 3rd in the Bayshore at the Big A and could come home first if Drosselmeyer happens to be looking forward to the Belmont Stakes. #7 Fly Down gets a tepid nod as 3rd choice; however I find the #1 Carnivore interesting as the lone speed long shot try. Carnivore has never run fast enough to beat most in this race, but if he gets brave on the lead who knows what could happen. Play only at a huge price.
Finally hooray for Hollywood and the G2 Mervyn Leroy handicap. #1 Dakota PHONEd the last one in on the dirt at Oaklawn. Now he's back on a more familiar surface and has been running great for Jerry Hollendorfer. If all things were equal, I'd still favor #6 Rail Trip in this position who I think could demolish this field while doing the backstroke. But the 244 day layoff has me thinking Rail Trip might need a race before firing his best shot. RT may not need his best shot to win here, but the price will be short and the layoff makes him vulnerable. #3 Slew's Tiznow rounds out the top three.
That's all I got for today. Going down to Miami to move my son out later. Will be hanging out at Calder tomorrow at the Home Stretch Bar next to the Poker Room. Just shout,"Where's that Chalk Eatin' Weasel?!" if you happen to be in the neighborhood. Maybe I'll buy you a drink.
I'm off
Showing posts with label Churchill Downs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Churchill Downs. Show all posts
Saturday, May 8, 2010
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Derby Day 2010.."Who'll Stop The Rain"
Just a quicky for Derby Day today. Got to look at the form for Calder as the wife ambushed me with the assumption that we were going to Calder for today's festivities. I wanted to watch the racing from the comfort of my living room.
First up is the G1 Humana Distaff. What better race to look for mudders than in a race for 4 and up fillies and mares.
Top pick is #3 Informed Decision winner of last years Humana on a sloppy Derby day. Last year Informed Decision also broke from post 3, was 2nd off a layoff, had J. Leparoux aboard, and came out of the G1 Madison at Keeneland. Holy deja vu, Batman! History repeats itself today.
#6 has been "Pretty Prolific" on an off track and has been swapping strides with the number 3 contender, Warbling, for the last three races winning once and finishing behind her the other two times. The win came on a sloppy track; therefore advantage Pretty Prolific.
#2 Warbling is fairly accomplished for a mere 5 race career including a win over next out winner Tar Heel Mom in the G2 Inside Information stakes at Gulfstream Park last out. Look's like she can handle an off track OK and should have a strong chance here.
If you're looking for a live longshot look no further than the #9 Rated Fiesty running for Steve Asmussen. 1 for 1 in slop and 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs. She's not as accomplished as the other 3, but she does have ability and the stars may be aligned for her today.
The G2 Churchill Downs is full of familiar names the classiest of which may be #7 Warrior's Reward. Once again J. Leparoux has the reins. Warrior has found rewards on off going and is 3 for 4 at the distance. A true specialist at this distance.
#12 Musket Man ran well in the Derby last year finishing 3rd and has been triple digit Brisnet consistent losing by only a nose to the top choice last out. If the top choice falters in any way, Musket Man should be right there
3rd choice is #8 Ventana a G2 winner last out. Raced well in one try over off going and ships in for Bob Baffert who is an astonishing 24% in Graded races with a positive ROI meaning all these runners are not going off at short prices. Jockey of the year runner up Garret Gomez is in the irons and West Coast runner have been doing well when coming east.
Long shot choice for this race is #13 Accredit. 5 for 5 on off tracks he is a true mudder who might take it all if he is on his fodder. Sorry I just couldn't help myself. Accredit won this race last year at 4 to 1 and considering the competition I expect he'll be a longer price this year.
Now for the Derby. Truth is, I don't have a clue. But I have opinions. I've been Lookin at Lucky since the Rebel and can't stop now even with the #1 post position draw. #1 Lookin at Lucky is the top choice.
The next choice in order are #6 Stately Victor, #10 Paddy O Prado with excellent off track breeding and #11 Devil May Care who has been working well on the sloppy Churchill track.
Good luck and I'm Off
First up is the G1 Humana Distaff. What better race to look for mudders than in a race for 4 and up fillies and mares.
Top pick is #3 Informed Decision winner of last years Humana on a sloppy Derby day. Last year Informed Decision also broke from post 3, was 2nd off a layoff, had J. Leparoux aboard, and came out of the G1 Madison at Keeneland. Holy deja vu, Batman! History repeats itself today.
#6 has been "Pretty Prolific" on an off track and has been swapping strides with the number 3 contender, Warbling, for the last three races winning once and finishing behind her the other two times. The win came on a sloppy track; therefore advantage Pretty Prolific.
#2 Warbling is fairly accomplished for a mere 5 race career including a win over next out winner Tar Heel Mom in the G2 Inside Information stakes at Gulfstream Park last out. Look's like she can handle an off track OK and should have a strong chance here.
If you're looking for a live longshot look no further than the #9 Rated Fiesty running for Steve Asmussen. 1 for 1 in slop and 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs. She's not as accomplished as the other 3, but she does have ability and the stars may be aligned for her today.
The G2 Churchill Downs is full of familiar names the classiest of which may be #7 Warrior's Reward. Once again J. Leparoux has the reins. Warrior has found rewards on off going and is 3 for 4 at the distance. A true specialist at this distance.
#12 Musket Man ran well in the Derby last year finishing 3rd and has been triple digit Brisnet consistent losing by only a nose to the top choice last out. If the top choice falters in any way, Musket Man should be right there
3rd choice is #8 Ventana a G2 winner last out. Raced well in one try over off going and ships in for Bob Baffert who is an astonishing 24% in Graded races with a positive ROI meaning all these runners are not going off at short prices. Jockey of the year runner up Garret Gomez is in the irons and West Coast runner have been doing well when coming east.
Long shot choice for this race is #13 Accredit. 5 for 5 on off tracks he is a true mudder who might take it all if he is on his fodder. Sorry I just couldn't help myself. Accredit won this race last year at 4 to 1 and considering the competition I expect he'll be a longer price this year.
Now for the Derby. Truth is, I don't have a clue. But I have opinions. I've been Lookin at Lucky since the Rebel and can't stop now even with the #1 post position draw. #1 Lookin at Lucky is the top choice.
The next choice in order are #6 Stately Victor, #10 Paddy O Prado with excellent off track breeding and #11 Devil May Care who has been working well on the sloppy Churchill track.
Good luck and I'm Off
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Ladies First
The most important day of racing in North America, Breeder's Cup included, is preceded by the KY Derby equivalent for 3 year old fillies, the Kentucky Oaks to be run tomorrow at 5:45. Unlike the first Saturday in May this year, the forecast for the last Friday in April for Louisville is sunny skies
Last year's edition featured a short field that was completely outclassed by Rachel Alexander. This years offering should be an interesting race with a full field of betting opportunities.
There is a class horse in the race by the name of Blind Luck a multiple Grade 1 stakes winner and third place finisher in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies last year. Blind Luck is your likely favorite and deserves to be, but she isn't a slam dunk.
Amen Hallelujah is consistent as all get out having finished in the money in 5 consecutive graded events. She has excellent tactical speed and will likely be forwardly placed, but she is not a need to lead type so look for someone else to set the early fractions. Her speed numbers in her last three G2 outing in which she won 2 of 3 put her right in the thick of things. She may be the one to catch when they turn for the stretch. Oh, and did I mention Julien Leparoux?
Evening Jewel won the G1 Ashland at Keeneland last out and came within a nose of the favorite 2 races back. This makes Evening Jewel an automatic contender to upset Blind Luck. Evening Jewel wired the Ashland but don't expect a repeat of that tactic in this race.
The third choice to upset Blind Luck is Beautician. Why not? A cursory look at her form shows what appears to be a spotty performer. On one day and way off the next. But take a closer look.
Beautician broke her maiden in her first race on this very track. Went directly to Saratoga with 2 strong efforts in the G3 Schuylerville and G1 Spinaway Stakes. Moved on to Keeneland in the fall on their all-weather surface turning in a so-so effort. Bested Blind Luck in the BC Juvenile with a 2nd place finish. Real bad at Hollywood, different surface. Real good at Oaklawn, back on dirt and so-so again at Keeneland. Now she is back on the surface she is proven on. Look for a strong effort. I'd go so far as to make her my upset pick for the race.
Quiet Temper and Crisp also deserve mention as possibilities, but you can't play the entire field.
Gun to my head, Blind Luck. However I'll be taking a good hard look to upset Blind Luck in this race and think I have provided three solid prospects to pull that off. Whatever you do, best of luck.
I'll be back with the Derby and other races from Saturday's Churchill card.
Get free PP's for most major stakes racing from the TBA http://www.tbablogs.com/.
I'm off
Last year's edition featured a short field that was completely outclassed by Rachel Alexander. This years offering should be an interesting race with a full field of betting opportunities.
There is a class horse in the race by the name of Blind Luck a multiple Grade 1 stakes winner and third place finisher in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies last year. Blind Luck is your likely favorite and deserves to be, but she isn't a slam dunk.
Amen Hallelujah is consistent as all get out having finished in the money in 5 consecutive graded events. She has excellent tactical speed and will likely be forwardly placed, but she is not a need to lead type so look for someone else to set the early fractions. Her speed numbers in her last three G2 outing in which she won 2 of 3 put her right in the thick of things. She may be the one to catch when they turn for the stretch. Oh, and did I mention Julien Leparoux?
Evening Jewel won the G1 Ashland at Keeneland last out and came within a nose of the favorite 2 races back. This makes Evening Jewel an automatic contender to upset Blind Luck. Evening Jewel wired the Ashland but don't expect a repeat of that tactic in this race.
The third choice to upset Blind Luck is Beautician. Why not? A cursory look at her form shows what appears to be a spotty performer. On one day and way off the next. But take a closer look.
Beautician broke her maiden in her first race on this very track. Went directly to Saratoga with 2 strong efforts in the G3 Schuylerville and G1 Spinaway Stakes. Moved on to Keeneland in the fall on their all-weather surface turning in a so-so effort. Bested Blind Luck in the BC Juvenile with a 2nd place finish. Real bad at Hollywood, different surface. Real good at Oaklawn, back on dirt and so-so again at Keeneland. Now she is back on the surface she is proven on. Look for a strong effort. I'd go so far as to make her my upset pick for the race.
Quiet Temper and Crisp also deserve mention as possibilities, but you can't play the entire field.
Gun to my head, Blind Luck. However I'll be taking a good hard look to upset Blind Luck in this race and think I have provided three solid prospects to pull that off. Whatever you do, best of luck.
I'll be back with the Derby and other races from Saturday's Churchill card.
Get free PP's for most major stakes racing from the TBA http://www.tbablogs.com/.
I'm off
Saturday, July 4, 2009
4th of July Star Spangled PH and HANA picks
All right then! Back for another week of making a public fool of myself. Last week wasn't too bad. Can't say I didn't warn you about Mary's Follies in the Boiling Springs at Monmouth. Too bad the price didn't justify the risk there. Had a straight chalky winner in Minnesota when the race was moved off the turf and Si Si Mon Amie scratched making Mizzcan'tbewrong the odds on favorite. Got beat in the other two races by longshots that really just didn't figure. Maneke just got nipped at the wire and the Colonial Downs race was won by horse ridden by Rosemary Homeister, Jr. Rosie used to ride a lot down here at Calder. She is a competent journeyman jockey, but she never gets the really good horses in the big races. However, every once in a while she'll pull one off for you. You just have to wait a long time for those every once in a whiles.
So here are this week's selections and analysis. Good luck
1 3/8 Mile (Turf) G1 United Nations Stakes Monmouth
MTH R10 G1
5:20
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Strike A Deal
5-2
4-1
#5 Court Vision
4-1
6-1
#6 Lauro
9-2
7-1
#1 Banrock
5-1
8-1
It almost looks like a rematch of the Monmouth race 3 weeks ago with many of the same players. The difference maker is going to be the distance. Presious Passion barely held off Banrock to win. I don't think Elvis will be able to stretch that horse out another 2 furlongs against this crowd, but I've been wrong before. #2 Strike A Deal has been the distance before and sits near the pace which should help keep him out of trouble and ready to move when the time comes. #5 Court Vision has never gone the distance but is too classy a horse to pass on if the price is right. #6 Lauro could be this week's Mary's Follies. 15-1 in the ML I've been reading a lot recently about the quality and stamina of German breds. Lauro has 2 wins and 3 places in 5 tries at this distance #1 Banrock is also a winner at the distance. Just missed last out and I think the extra distance will help. Only issue is that Joe Bravo is no Kent Desormeaux.
1 Mile (Turf) Firecracker Hdcp. G2 Churchill Downs
CD R10 G2
5:29
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#5 Mr. Sidney
5-2
4-1
#7 Tizdejavu
4-1
6-1
#4 Thorn Song
9-2
7-1
#2 Seaspeak
5-1
8-1
#5 Mr. Sidney is back home on the KY bluegrass coming off a poor effort in the G1 Met HDCP at Belmont. Look for a rebound back on the grass with KD in the irons. Mr. Sidney is 3 for 3 at the distance on grass and a G1 winner. #7 Tizdejavu is the 3 for 3 horse for course and has 4 wins and 1 show in 5 races on the grass. A G2 winner as a 3yo is making only his 2nd start this year.#4 Thornsong will be the horse to catch, but the 9-5 ML fave will have to fend off many contenders for that early lead. So the question becomes how much will he have left for the late runners. Probably not enough is my guess. #2 Seaspeak is a 2 time G3 winner looking to make that next step forward. Broke his maiden at CD and Albarado dominates at CD so certainly worth a look at the ML of 8-1
1 1/4 Mile Suburban Hdcp. G2 Belmont
Bel R10 G2
5:49
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Asiatic Boy
5-2
4-1
#3 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#2 Dry Martini
9-2
7-1
#8 Cool Coal Man
5-1
8-1
Cool Coal Man and the hardest working stakes horse in racing, Finallymadeit, guarantee an honest pace in this race which should perfectly suit the likes of Asiatic Boy who is coming out of a 2nd place finish in the S. Foster Hdcp. After missing that one by a gaining length, a 2nd go in the States with lasix and Alan Garcia, coupled with a favorable pace scenario should make this a victory ride for the Sheik. #3 It's A Bird is in great condition and will be hanging just off the pace setters. Look for him to get the lead at some point in the stretch and then try to hold off the closing Asiatic Boy and the next contender #2 Dry Martini. Dry Martini is a solid G3 runner who will also benefit from honest fractions. He may not be good enough for these, but with a little luck, you never know. #8 Cool Coal Man will need to shake loose of Finallymadeit and slow down the race to have any real chance. I don't think it will happen, but would play it for a big price.
1 1/4 Mile American Oaks G1 Hollywood
Hol R8 G1
Sunday
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#1 Gozzip Girl
5-2
4-1
#11 The Best Day Ever
4-1
6-1
#14 Mrs Kipling
9-2
7-1
#7 Acting Lady
5-1
8-1
14 horses in and 2 more waiting to go, but I could never get pass Gozzip Girl in my figuring. She just looks to good. #11 The Best Day Ever is an improving 3yo filly and could give her a run #14 Mrs Kipling certainly looks good enough to win here, but I don't know about the post position #7 Acting Lady has won a big race here before and has beaten the 3rd choice and must be considered. Other considerations are Well Monied and Magical Affair, but you can't bet 'em all. Or can you?
One last thing. Remember that today is the day we celebrate our Independence from an over bearing and controlling government, not our dependence on an ever growing and liberty infringing cradle to grave (and the faster the better, it seems) nanny state.
So here are this week's selections and analysis. Good luck
1 3/8 Mile (Turf) G1 United Nations Stakes Monmouth
MTH R10 G1
5:20
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Strike A Deal
5-2
4-1
#5 Court Vision
4-1
6-1
#6 Lauro
9-2
7-1
#1 Banrock
5-1
8-1
It almost looks like a rematch of the Monmouth race 3 weeks ago with many of the same players. The difference maker is going to be the distance. Presious Passion barely held off Banrock to win. I don't think Elvis will be able to stretch that horse out another 2 furlongs against this crowd, but I've been wrong before. #2 Strike A Deal has been the distance before and sits near the pace which should help keep him out of trouble and ready to move when the time comes. #5 Court Vision has never gone the distance but is too classy a horse to pass on if the price is right. #6 Lauro could be this week's Mary's Follies. 15-1 in the ML I've been reading a lot recently about the quality and stamina of German breds. Lauro has 2 wins and 3 places in 5 tries at this distance #1 Banrock is also a winner at the distance. Just missed last out and I think the extra distance will help. Only issue is that Joe Bravo is no Kent Desormeaux.
1 Mile (Turf) Firecracker Hdcp. G2 Churchill Downs
CD R10 G2
5:29
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#5 Mr. Sidney
5-2
4-1
#7 Tizdejavu
4-1
6-1
#4 Thorn Song
9-2
7-1
#2 Seaspeak
5-1
8-1
#5 Mr. Sidney is back home on the KY bluegrass coming off a poor effort in the G1 Met HDCP at Belmont. Look for a rebound back on the grass with KD in the irons. Mr. Sidney is 3 for 3 at the distance on grass and a G1 winner. #7 Tizdejavu is the 3 for 3 horse for course and has 4 wins and 1 show in 5 races on the grass. A G2 winner as a 3yo is making only his 2nd start this year.#4 Thornsong will be the horse to catch, but the 9-5 ML fave will have to fend off many contenders for that early lead. So the question becomes how much will he have left for the late runners. Probably not enough is my guess. #2 Seaspeak is a 2 time G3 winner looking to make that next step forward. Broke his maiden at CD and Albarado dominates at CD so certainly worth a look at the ML of 8-1
1 1/4 Mile Suburban Hdcp. G2 Belmont
Bel R10 G2
5:49
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Asiatic Boy
5-2
4-1
#3 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#2 Dry Martini
9-2
7-1
#8 Cool Coal Man
5-1
8-1
Cool Coal Man and the hardest working stakes horse in racing, Finallymadeit, guarantee an honest pace in this race which should perfectly suit the likes of Asiatic Boy who is coming out of a 2nd place finish in the S. Foster Hdcp. After missing that one by a gaining length, a 2nd go in the States with lasix and Alan Garcia, coupled with a favorable pace scenario should make this a victory ride for the Sheik. #3 It's A Bird is in great condition and will be hanging just off the pace setters. Look for him to get the lead at some point in the stretch and then try to hold off the closing Asiatic Boy and the next contender #2 Dry Martini. Dry Martini is a solid G3 runner who will also benefit from honest fractions. He may not be good enough for these, but with a little luck, you never know. #8 Cool Coal Man will need to shake loose of Finallymadeit and slow down the race to have any real chance. I don't think it will happen, but would play it for a big price.
1 1/4 Mile American Oaks G1 Hollywood
Hol R8 G1
Sunday
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#1 Gozzip Girl
5-2
4-1
#11 The Best Day Ever
4-1
6-1
#14 Mrs Kipling
9-2
7-1
#7 Acting Lady
5-1
8-1
14 horses in and 2 more waiting to go, but I could never get pass Gozzip Girl in my figuring. She just looks to good. #11 The Best Day Ever is an improving 3yo filly and could give her a run #14 Mrs Kipling certainly looks good enough to win here, but I don't know about the post position #7 Acting Lady has won a big race here before and has beaten the 3rd choice and must be considered. Other considerations are Well Monied and Magical Affair, but you can't bet 'em all. Or can you?
One last thing. Remember that today is the day we celebrate our Independence from an over bearing and controlling government, not our dependence on an ever growing and liberty infringing cradle to grave (and the faster the better, it seems) nanny state.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Summit of Speed Preview
Back again after taking a licking on Belmont Day. I've tried to update the spreadsheet that shows my progress, but it is not functioning for me at the moment. I'll go back later. Long story short, I wagered on 4 of the 6 races passing the True North and the Acorn Stakes. Summer Bird was the near miss of the day. If only Charitable Man would have dropped one more tick to 4-1 than I would've had the win and exacta! Did manage the superfecta box. Too bad I didn't play it.
Ok, today's another day. Calder Race Course has 5 stakes races scheduled for its Summit of Speed preview. The HANA race of the week is the 200k Monmouth Stakes for 3 and up and was a fun race to handicap. Let's hope its a fun race to cash in on.
The HANA race is also one of the Public Handicapper races as well. 2 of those races are at Churchill, the Stephen Foster with Einstein running and the Regret Stakes. Finally, its the nightcap, for us East Coasters at Hollywood Park with the Grade 2 Californian Stakes for 3 and up.
So without further ado.
Race 3 at CRC: Blazing Sword Stakes, 55k on Turf for 3 and up.
CRC Race 3
1:44
#1 Mambo Meister
3-2
5-2
#10 Vanquisher
7-2
5-1
#4 Motovato
9-2
7-1
#1 Winner last out appears to be the best here #10 Non Graded stakes winnner is 50% ITM on Turf #4 Turf debut for Motovato has B rated Turf sire and is in good form. Include no.'s 6, 8, 9 for trifecta
Race 8 at Calder. The Unbridled Stakes 100k, 6f for 3 year olds. This race is a 4 horse affair not likely to offer value, but maybe a good free space for the pick 4.
CRC Race 8
4:16
#2 You Luckie Mann
1-1
3-2
#4 Prince Joshua
5-1
8-1
#3 Bidham
6-1
9-1
#2 Wolfson HFC and obvious top choice. #4 Prince Joshua turnsback in distance and could possibly be a good separator in the P4 as everyone will likely single the 2. #3 improving 3yo finished just behind 2nd choice last out
Race 9 at CRC is the 100k Leave Me Alone Stakes for 3yo fillies.
CRC Race 9
4:42
#7 Mine All Mine
7-5
2-1
#3 First Passage
7-2
5-1
#1Donttellmewhattodo
9-2
7-1
#7 finished 2nd to the 3 last out. 2nd off layoff should move forward off that race for 50% trainer Wesley Ward. Ward/Lopez was deadly combo last year. #3 stumbled at the start and won anyway would not be a shocker #1 Doug O'Neill shipper gets good post and looks to be getting better each race.
To keep the races in chronological order, we'll move up the coast to Monmouth for the 200k Monmouth Stakes, Turf for 3 and up. Note Richard's Kid is already a scratch.
MTH Race 9
4:50
#5 Strike A Deal
5-2
4-1
#1 Proudinsky
3-1
9-2
#7 Presious Passion
6-1
9-1
#6 Buddy's Home
6-1
9-1
Grand Couturier, 1st since Breeder's Cup is play against. Most likely tuning up for something bigger down the road #5 may want a little more distance, but has been running great lately. #1 ran into A class horses last out gets a little easier field here #7 Proven G2 horse and Elvis is a leading rider at MTH #6 2 for 3 on course won G3 2 back at GP
Then right back to CRC for Race 10 the 75k U Can do It Hdcp for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
CRC Race 10
5:08
#1 Marina Ballerina
6-5
9-5
#3 Jessica Is Back
4-1
6-1
#4 Orinoquia
5-1
8-1
#1 Won Coolair last out despite a very troubled trip. Looks clearly the best here and a P4 single. #3 Wolfson entry with go to rider Jermaine Bridgmohan aboard could be a threat #4 3rd off the layoff finished just a neck behind 2nd choice could turn the tables.
Race 10 Churchill G1 Stephen Foster Hdcp.
CD Race 10
5:29
#3 Einstein
3-1
9-2
#6 Bullsbay
7-2
5-1
#5 Researcher
9-2
7-1
#7 Asiatic Boy
6-1
9-1
#3 how can you pick against Einstein. A horse for any course considered better on grass but can hold his own with the best on dirt. #6 In great current form is 3 for 3 on the track and will have plenty of pace to run at. #5 I watched his last race at Charlestown and it was easier that it looked on paper. If the CT track record holder can transfer his form to CD, he'll be a force to be reckoned with. #7 is the wild card in this race not looking good enough to love and too good looking to ignore. Gets first lasix and I like the McLaughlin/Garcia combo
Rushing back to Calder for race 11 the 75k Ponche Hdcp for 3 and up.
CRC Race 11
5:34
#5 Yesbyjimminy
2-1
3-1
#2 Americanrevolution
5-2
4-1
#7 How's Your Halo
4-1
6-1
#5 has the proven ability to win this level race over the course, but the 6 yo gelding, #2, is 4 for 4 over the track and should be a threat. #7 is another Calder veteran who gets points for consistency. If the top two falter 7 will pick it up.
Race 11 The G3 Regret Stakes for 3yo Fillies. Note Excelente and Kiss Mine are scratched.
CD Race 11
5:58
#6 Oculuna
3-1
7-2
#10 Prytania
7-2
5-1
#5 Banker's Choice
4-1
6-1
#9 Keertana
6-1
9-1
#6 should set the pace in a paceless race and could run away if allowed to set easy early fractions. #10 will need some pace to run out. #5 Finished 3rd last out against better #9 Winner Alwn1x last out passed 4 horses down stretch
Finally out to the left coast for the Hollywood night cap the Grade 2 Californian Stakes for 3 and up
HOL Race 9
8:08
#2 Mast Track
3-1
9-2
#6 Song of Navaronne
7-2
5-1
#3 Rail Trip
9-2
7-1
#8 Ball Four
5-1
8-1
#2 Comes back to site of G1 win after a 2 month freshening. #6 Close on the 2's heels is #6 who finished a half length behind Its a Bird and Jonesboro at Lonestar. Main question is the surface. Pedigree is nothing special for AW surfaces. #3 Been watching this one all year. Speed to spare but the 8 horse is cut from the same cloth so it will be interesting to see if these two get suicidal on the front end or not.
My apologies for the less than detailed notes. As you can tell by my lack of posting and the time of this post, its been a hectic week.
Good Luck and enjoy the races.
Ok, today's another day. Calder Race Course has 5 stakes races scheduled for its Summit of Speed preview. The HANA race of the week is the 200k Monmouth Stakes for 3 and up and was a fun race to handicap. Let's hope its a fun race to cash in on.
The HANA race is also one of the Public Handicapper races as well. 2 of those races are at Churchill, the Stephen Foster with Einstein running and the Regret Stakes. Finally, its the nightcap, for us East Coasters at Hollywood Park with the Grade 2 Californian Stakes for 3 and up.
So without further ado.
Race 3 at CRC: Blazing Sword Stakes, 55k on Turf for 3 and up.
CRC Race 3
1:44
#1 Mambo Meister
3-2
5-2
#10 Vanquisher
7-2
5-1
#4 Motovato
9-2
7-1
#1 Winner last out appears to be the best here #10 Non Graded stakes winnner is 50% ITM on Turf #4 Turf debut for Motovato has B rated Turf sire and is in good form. Include no.'s 6, 8, 9 for trifecta
Race 8 at Calder. The Unbridled Stakes 100k, 6f for 3 year olds. This race is a 4 horse affair not likely to offer value, but maybe a good free space for the pick 4.
CRC Race 8
4:16
#2 You Luckie Mann
1-1
3-2
#4 Prince Joshua
5-1
8-1
#3 Bidham
6-1
9-1
#2 Wolfson HFC and obvious top choice. #4 Prince Joshua turnsback in distance and could possibly be a good separator in the P4 as everyone will likely single the 2. #3 improving 3yo finished just behind 2nd choice last out
Race 9 at CRC is the 100k Leave Me Alone Stakes for 3yo fillies.
CRC Race 9
4:42
#7 Mine All Mine
7-5
2-1
#3 First Passage
7-2
5-1
#1Donttellmewhattodo
9-2
7-1
#7 finished 2nd to the 3 last out. 2nd off layoff should move forward off that race for 50% trainer Wesley Ward. Ward/Lopez was deadly combo last year. #3 stumbled at the start and won anyway would not be a shocker #1 Doug O'Neill shipper gets good post and looks to be getting better each race.
To keep the races in chronological order, we'll move up the coast to Monmouth for the 200k Monmouth Stakes, Turf for 3 and up. Note Richard's Kid is already a scratch.
MTH Race 9
4:50
#5 Strike A Deal
5-2
4-1
#1 Proudinsky
3-1
9-2
#7 Presious Passion
6-1
9-1
#6 Buddy's Home
6-1
9-1
Grand Couturier, 1st since Breeder's Cup is play against. Most likely tuning up for something bigger down the road #5 may want a little more distance, but has been running great lately. #1 ran into A class horses last out gets a little easier field here #7 Proven G2 horse and Elvis is a leading rider at MTH #6 2 for 3 on course won G3 2 back at GP
Then right back to CRC for Race 10 the 75k U Can do It Hdcp for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
CRC Race 10
5:08
#1 Marina Ballerina
6-5
9-5
#3 Jessica Is Back
4-1
6-1
#4 Orinoquia
5-1
8-1
#1 Won Coolair last out despite a very troubled trip. Looks clearly the best here and a P4 single. #3 Wolfson entry with go to rider Jermaine Bridgmohan aboard could be a threat #4 3rd off the layoff finished just a neck behind 2nd choice could turn the tables.
Race 10 Churchill G1 Stephen Foster Hdcp.
CD Race 10
5:29
#3 Einstein
3-1
9-2
#6 Bullsbay
7-2
5-1
#5 Researcher
9-2
7-1
#7 Asiatic Boy
6-1
9-1
#3 how can you pick against Einstein. A horse for any course considered better on grass but can hold his own with the best on dirt. #6 In great current form is 3 for 3 on the track and will have plenty of pace to run at. #5 I watched his last race at Charlestown and it was easier that it looked on paper. If the CT track record holder can transfer his form to CD, he'll be a force to be reckoned with. #7 is the wild card in this race not looking good enough to love and too good looking to ignore. Gets first lasix and I like the McLaughlin/Garcia combo
Rushing back to Calder for race 11 the 75k Ponche Hdcp for 3 and up.
CRC Race 11
5:34
#5 Yesbyjimminy
2-1
3-1
#2 Americanrevolution
5-2
4-1
#7 How's Your Halo
4-1
6-1
#5 has the proven ability to win this level race over the course, but the 6 yo gelding, #2, is 4 for 4 over the track and should be a threat. #7 is another Calder veteran who gets points for consistency. If the top two falter 7 will pick it up.
Race 11 The G3 Regret Stakes for 3yo Fillies. Note Excelente and Kiss Mine are scratched.
CD Race 11
5:58
#6 Oculuna
3-1
7-2
#10 Prytania
7-2
5-1
#5 Banker's Choice
4-1
6-1
#9 Keertana
6-1
9-1
#6 should set the pace in a paceless race and could run away if allowed to set easy early fractions. #10 will need some pace to run out. #5 Finished 3rd last out against better #9 Winner Alwn1x last out passed 4 horses down stretch
Finally out to the left coast for the Hollywood night cap the Grade 2 Californian Stakes for 3 and up
HOL Race 9
8:08
#2 Mast Track
3-1
9-2
#6 Song of Navaronne
7-2
5-1
#3 Rail Trip
9-2
7-1
#8 Ball Four
5-1
8-1
#2 Comes back to site of G1 win after a 2 month freshening. #6 Close on the 2's heels is #6 who finished a half length behind Its a Bird and Jonesboro at Lonestar. Main question is the surface. Pedigree is nothing special for AW surfaces. #3 Been watching this one all year. Speed to spare but the 8 horse is cut from the same cloth so it will be interesting to see if these two get suicidal on the front end or not.
My apologies for the less than detailed notes. As you can tell by my lack of posting and the time of this post, its been a hectic week.
Good Luck and enjoy the races.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Hot Off The Press
TVG reports a full recovery is expected for Rene Douglas.
In the PH 8th race at Belmont Scolara was a winner for me at 5/2. However, the race was a pass with no overlays. Unfortunate since the exacta was in play as well.
In the PH/HANA Aristides G3 at Churchill Semaphore Man did not disappoint going off at a surprising, to me, 5-1 just got beat by Bold Start. Fortunately for me, Bold Start was my substitute runner for the scratched Cassoulet, and I get the exacta as a consolation prize.
The next 2 races are at Golden Gate Fields at 7:27 and Hollywood at 8:08. Stay tuned and see how the Weasel does.
In the PH 8th race at Belmont Scolara was a winner for me at 5/2. However, the race was a pass with no overlays. Unfortunate since the exacta was in play as well.
In the PH/HANA Aristides G3 at Churchill Semaphore Man did not disappoint going off at a surprising, to me, 5-1 just got beat by Bold Start. Fortunately for me, Bold Start was my substitute runner for the scratched Cassoulet, and I get the exacta as a consolation prize.
The next 2 races are at Golden Gate Fields at 7:27 and Hollywood at 8:08. Stay tuned and see how the Weasel does.
Phandcapper and HANA Pool Races: May 30
Another Saturday and another installment on Public Handicapper and the HANA Pool race of the week.
By now the word is out that Rachel Alexandra will not run in the Belmont. I don't have much to add to that which has already been said elsewhere I'm sure. I do remember reading somewhere that Asmussen had said that she did not come out of the Preakness as well as they liked. I remember thinking she was looking tiredl towards the end of the race, but then after watching the replay, I thought perhaps I was mistaken with my initial impression. I'm so confused. All the same, the Belmont seems to be attracting a good field. Unfortunately, it appears Friesan Fire will also miss the Belmont. At least I won't have to burn anymore money on him for awhile.
And now for the Picks.
The first race on deck is the McKayMackenna S for F and M 3up which have not won an open sweepstakes on the turf in 2008 or 2009
I found this race to be a very competitive brain buster. In my mind Scolara is something of a stand out here, but after that its anybody's guess. In addition to my choices below, keep an eye on #9 Shadiyna who ran a real good race in an OC50kn2x last out which she might've won except for getting bumped before the wire.
Belmont R8
4:44
#6 Scolara
2-1
3-1
#2 La Hernanda
5-1
8-1
#10 Kristi With A K
5-1
8-1
#8 Pastel Gal
5-1
8-1
In what looks to be a very competitive race, #6 Scolara gets the favorite position based on previous stakes and grade 3 showing. After Scolara you can take your pick #2 La Hernanda comes off a 5 month layoff after beating open alw company in Tampa (note she was dq'ed and placed 2nd). Plenty of time to rest after achieving the top figure in the field #10 K with a K has only finished OTM once in 9 starts and is unbeaten in 2 tries on Belmont Turf. #8 Pastel Gal bested K with a K in a Jan. GP allowance.
The next race is the HANA Pool race. Lots of grumbling on the HANA message board about playing such a high profile track. Not from me. Sheesh, can't we all just get along? This race looks to be very competitive; however it is difficult to pick against Semaphore Man here. Though, as usual, I'll be letting the odds do my picking for me.
G3 Aristides for 3 up
Churchill R10
5:29
#6 Semaphore Man
5-2
4-1
#5 Sok Sok
3-1
9-2
#2 Cassoulet
6-1
9-1
#7 Premium Wine
6-1
9-1
#6 Semaphore Man never seems to have a bad race except when on artificial comes into race rested after Oaklawn Park G3 win. #5 Sok Sok is a 5 of 10 winner and 3 of 6 at the distance gets Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan. #2 Cassoulet looks to be on the improve and in good form and may surprise in this spot. #7 Premium Wine flashed alot of speed in NY last spring before going on the shelf for 8 months. Has been working regularly since early April and is the fastest of the group if he has regained his old form.
Moving out west to Golden Gate Fields for the Golden Gate Fields Turf Stakes-G3 for 4 and up the biggest surprise may be the field size at 9. Of course this race attracted several SoCal runners and looks to be a good one.
GGF R8
7:23
#3 Spring House
2-1
3-1
#5 Yacht Spotter
4-1
6-1
#6 Porfido
5-1
8-1
#9 Obrigado
5-1
8-1
#3 Spring House is a distance specialist and the only recent Graded stakes race winner in the bunch. Lately running in good company the 7 yo gelding goes slumming up to GGF in search of some Graded stakes money. After bleeding in the San Luis Rey, SH came back with a good effort in the San Juan Capistrano. Always deferential to the home team and horses for courses #5 Yacht Spotter is 5 for 8 and 8 times ITM at GGF. This front running type is stetching out to this distance for the first time, can be rated, and often these types of races can be won on the front end. Witness Criticism last week at Belmont. Besides the distance the worry for YS will be the speedy Shem at post 1 who may not be inclined to let YS have an easy time at the front. #6 Porfido and #9 Obrigado have each been chasing SH around alot. Porfido seems to be at his best at these longer distances and Obrigado was a mere 3/4 lengths behind SH last out.
Finally we wind up the evening in Hollywood. Enjoy it while you have it. The race is the Gamely Stakes-G1. I expect Black Mamba will get wound up for a big stretch run again. I think she was clearly the best at the end in the Santa Barbara and am not convinced she lost that race. Check the photo below and you decide. Meanwhile, here are the selections.
Hol R9
8:08
#10 Black Mamba
3-1
7-2
#4 Diamond Diva
7-2
5-1
#7 Magical Fantasy
4-1
6-1
#1 Tuscan Diva
6-1
9-1
#10 Black Mamba wound up going 9 wide, (comments say 6, but check the replay) to just miss and should turn the tables on the 7 with a little luck #4 Diamond Diva is the Horse for Course pick in here and has a victory over the top choice should be near front meaning less traffic and less that can go wrong. #7 Magical Fantasy rode the rails in the Santa Barbara while BM took the long route and just managed to hang on. In fact, check the win photo as it looks like a dead heat to me. Look for a different outcome this time. #1 Tuscan Diva should get the early lead and has top rider Bejarano aboard to see if she can be coaxed all the way home. I think the field is too strong for her, but worth a shot at a long price.
Black Mamba is the outside horse.
By now the word is out that Rachel Alexandra will not run in the Belmont. I don't have much to add to that which has already been said elsewhere I'm sure. I do remember reading somewhere that Asmussen had said that she did not come out of the Preakness as well as they liked. I remember thinking she was looking tiredl towards the end of the race, but then after watching the replay, I thought perhaps I was mistaken with my initial impression. I'm so confused. All the same, the Belmont seems to be attracting a good field. Unfortunately, it appears Friesan Fire will also miss the Belmont. At least I won't have to burn anymore money on him for awhile.
And now for the Picks.
The first race on deck is the McKayMackenna S for F and M 3up which have not won an open sweepstakes on the turf in 2008 or 2009
I found this race to be a very competitive brain buster. In my mind Scolara is something of a stand out here, but after that its anybody's guess. In addition to my choices below, keep an eye on #9 Shadiyna who ran a real good race in an OC50kn2x last out which she might've won except for getting bumped before the wire.
Belmont R8
4:44
#6 Scolara
2-1
3-1
#2 La Hernanda
5-1
8-1
#10 Kristi With A K
5-1
8-1
#8 Pastel Gal
5-1
8-1
In what looks to be a very competitive race, #6 Scolara gets the favorite position based on previous stakes and grade 3 showing. After Scolara you can take your pick #2 La Hernanda comes off a 5 month layoff after beating open alw company in Tampa (note she was dq'ed and placed 2nd). Plenty of time to rest after achieving the top figure in the field #10 K with a K has only finished OTM once in 9 starts and is unbeaten in 2 tries on Belmont Turf. #8 Pastel Gal bested K with a K in a Jan. GP allowance.
The next race is the HANA Pool race. Lots of grumbling on the HANA message board about playing such a high profile track. Not from me. Sheesh, can't we all just get along? This race looks to be very competitive; however it is difficult to pick against Semaphore Man here. Though, as usual, I'll be letting the odds do my picking for me.
G3 Aristides for 3 up
Churchill R10
5:29
#6 Semaphore Man
5-2
4-1
#5 Sok Sok
3-1
9-2
#2 Cassoulet
6-1
9-1
#7 Premium Wine
6-1
9-1
#6 Semaphore Man never seems to have a bad race except when on artificial comes into race rested after Oaklawn Park G3 win. #5 Sok Sok is a 5 of 10 winner and 3 of 6 at the distance gets Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan. #2 Cassoulet looks to be on the improve and in good form and may surprise in this spot. #7 Premium Wine flashed alot of speed in NY last spring before going on the shelf for 8 months. Has been working regularly since early April and is the fastest of the group if he has regained his old form.
Moving out west to Golden Gate Fields for the Golden Gate Fields Turf Stakes-G3 for 4 and up the biggest surprise may be the field size at 9. Of course this race attracted several SoCal runners and looks to be a good one.
GGF R8
7:23
#3 Spring House
2-1
3-1
#5 Yacht Spotter
4-1
6-1
#6 Porfido
5-1
8-1
#9 Obrigado
5-1
8-1
#3 Spring House is a distance specialist and the only recent Graded stakes race winner in the bunch. Lately running in good company the 7 yo gelding goes slumming up to GGF in search of some Graded stakes money. After bleeding in the San Luis Rey, SH came back with a good effort in the San Juan Capistrano. Always deferential to the home team and horses for courses #5 Yacht Spotter is 5 for 8 and 8 times ITM at GGF. This front running type is stetching out to this distance for the first time, can be rated, and often these types of races can be won on the front end. Witness Criticism last week at Belmont. Besides the distance the worry for YS will be the speedy Shem at post 1 who may not be inclined to let YS have an easy time at the front. #6 Porfido and #9 Obrigado have each been chasing SH around alot. Porfido seems to be at his best at these longer distances and Obrigado was a mere 3/4 lengths behind SH last out.
Finally we wind up the evening in Hollywood. Enjoy it while you have it. The race is the Gamely Stakes-G1. I expect Black Mamba will get wound up for a big stretch run again. I think she was clearly the best at the end in the Santa Barbara and am not convinced she lost that race. Check the photo below and you decide. Meanwhile, here are the selections.
Hol R9
8:08
#10 Black Mamba
3-1
7-2
#4 Diamond Diva
7-2
5-1
#7 Magical Fantasy
4-1
6-1
#1 Tuscan Diva
6-1
9-1
#10 Black Mamba wound up going 9 wide, (comments say 6, but check the replay) to just miss and should turn the tables on the 7 with a little luck #4 Diamond Diva is the Horse for Course pick in here and has a victory over the top choice should be near front meaning less traffic and less that can go wrong. #7 Magical Fantasy rode the rails in the Santa Barbara while BM took the long route and just managed to hang on. In fact, check the win photo as it looks like a dead heat to me. Look for a different outcome this time. #1 Tuscan Diva should get the early lead and has top rider Bejarano aboard to see if she can be coaxed all the way home. I think the field is too strong for her, but worth a shot at a long price.
Black Mamba is the outside horse.
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Post Race Analysis for May 23
Back again. Officially, as far as the PH is concerned, I was 0 for 4.
Unofficially, and better for me, Euphony led broke alertly from the gate and led going into the clubhouse turned. Going down the backstretch, Euphony allowed the 90-1 Boudoir to go to the lead. Never trailing the leader by more than a length Euphony took command at the top of the stretch and was easily the best of Indescibable (show) and Kiss With A Twist (place) neither of whom could make up any ground on the winner. Euphony paid 17.80 to win. The $1 exacta, which I also had, paid $49.50. If only I'd played the Trifecta.
6/1 in the morning line, Euphony went off at nearly 8-1. Honestly, I cannot understand how the betting collective allowed Euphony to get off at such a price. Indescribable went of at 4/5 as the deserving favorite. Indescribable, coming off of 2 G3 wins deserved to be the favorite, but not at 4/5. There are two reasons I can think of for Euphony to be so relatively dismissed: 1) No G3 wins and 2) no experience on artificial surfaces.
When I am handicapping Graded Stakes races. The first thing I look for are horses which have shown that they are capable of winning at that level. However, when looking specifically at G3 races, one also has to be aware of 1) horses dropping in from G2 races and 2) up and coming horses that are demonstrating good form. Euphony obviously comes out of that latter group and is really the type you need to be on the lookout for because you won't get 8 to 1 on her next race. In many ways, this reminds me of Wild Promises who came to CRC last year after dominating stakes races at Golden Gate. Wild Promises went off at 5/1 that race and I couldn't believe my good fortune. Good luck getting 5/1 on Wild Promises after that race.
Thus, I come to the other hang up we handicappers have. Euphony's lack of artificial surface form. One item that I have recently been incorporating into my handicapping tool-kit is pedigree. I have previously pretty much paid no attention to pedigree, but have recently been learning of how powerful a tool pedigree can actually be. If one checks Euphony's pedigree, she was sired by Forest Wildcat out of the Smart Strike mare Strike It Up. Accordign to the Sire Stats book put out by Thoroughbred Sports Network, both of sides of Euphony's pedigree are above average (B rated) all-weather surface sires. But in this case, I didn't need to refer to the reference book to know that Euphony would handle the surface fine. As I wrote before, Euphony had won 4 consecutive stakes races on at 4 different tracks, 2 on turf, and 2 on dirt. In addition, Euphony had been training very well at Arlington including 2 bullet workouts over fake dirt. There was no doubt in my mind that Euphony would handle the surface. Some horses care about the surface and some don't. Euphony clearly fits into the latter category.
Ok, so much for my big win of the day, what about all those losses. The Sheepshead Bay at Belmont was a pretty simple race to handicap. Criticism was the horse to beat, and there was a way to beat him. Unfortunately, Kiaran McLaughlin's uncoupled entry raced as an uncoupled entry as both horses, in tandem, dropped to the back of the pack at the start of the race and Criticism was once again allowed to relax on an uncontested lead. The past performances suggested that Colina Verde, ridden by Alan Garcia, might be inclined to apply some pressure to Criticism and make him actually work for his lead. Instead, Garcia instantly applied a choke hold to Colina Verde at the start and Criticism led the field from wire to wire without ever being truly challenged. An outcome which I warned of but didn't wager on.
The Louisville handicap at Churchill Downs just turned out to be one of those races that all handicappers run into. Brass Hat has been winless for the last year and a half. At one time a top grass runner, it seemed as if 8 year old gelding's best competitive years were behind him. The real disappointment in this race was betting choice Always First who never really seriously contended in this race. Spice Route and Thabazimbi pretty much went as expected and just got beat today. I think the clues to Always First less than inspired performance likely lies in the comment lines for his last two races: 1) Lacked closing bid and 2) failed to menace. Perhaps at 8 years of age, Always First is losing interest. Note for next time. Check out the race replay.
Perhaps the most surprising outcome was in the Hanshin Hdcp. While not considered a contender for my selection purposes T=the winner, Vacation, ridden by J. R. Velazquez and trained by Claude "Shug" McGaughey (Gee, I wish I had a great nickname like that) was not a shocker. I thought Stonehouse would regress based upon his recent figure patterns and Cherokee Artist gave it a good effort in finishing 3rd, but Coragil Cat laid a big fat egg out there starting last out of the gate and finishing last at the end. Coming back 2nd off a layoff to a track where he had run well before, this just doesn't figure. But then, racing doesn't always figure. Fortunately for you, this race was a pass. Unfortunately for me, I had to make my play earlier than normal due to unusual circumstances while Coragil Cat was still at playable odds. That'll teach me not to use that conditional option. Looking critically at my own performance, Stonehouse should not have been a contender if I felt he was going to regress to form insufficient to win. I am satisfied with the other selections, if not the outcome. The elimination of Stonehouse as a contender could have made room for a 4th contender or just left it at 3 lowering the needed odds on the remaining 3.
Finally, coming to the HANA race of the week at Canterbury PARK, I had the top two finishers in order despite the race being moved to the main track. OK, really now, does anyone really believe that 10k claimers care about the surface? Especially when most of these weren't particularly the specialist type anyways. My bet was the longshot Elegant Star. I said in my analysis that I thought he was a notch below the others and as it turned out I was correct. But, if you can't take a shot in a race like this, when will you ever take a shot? Elegant Star stayed in contention for about a half and then fell back to bring up the rear, but that's OK. You can't win them all.
There was alot of talk on the HANA discussion group about how this race was a failure for the In The Pool buycott. Also some discussion about how our Canadian cousins were shut out of the action. I hope what has begun as a positive movement to improve the sport we all love doesn't devolve into a pissing contest because everyone can't be pleased all of the time. Sheesh, were horse players, you'd think we'd be used to losing every now and then.
'Til the next time.
Chalk Eating Weasel
Addendum: As reported by Bloodhorse.com, Jockey Rene Douglas has come out of 7 hours of surgery due to injuries incurred in an accident during the Matron Hdcp at Arlington Park yesterday. The incident occured when Born To Be clipped heels with Boudoir after being bumped by Sky Mom. Born To Be threw Douglas and the flipped over and landed on top of the rider. Bloodhorse reports that at this time it is unlikely Douglas will walk again; however that will not be known for certain until the swelling in the spinal area recedes. Bloodhorse also reported that Born To Be has recovered from the incident and has been returned to the barn of trainer Eric Cointreaux.
Pray or hope or make a sacrifice or whatever you do to get a good outcome over something you have no control over for the recovery of Rene Douglas.
Correction: In the post above I said that Brass Hat was, at one time, a top turf horse. The Bloodhorse reports that prior to Saturday's race, Brass Hat had not won in 7 tries over grass hardly qualifying as a top turf horse. All the same, had I been privy to that information, I would've been even less inclined to consider Brass Hat a contender. I remain of the opinion that Brass Hat is a classy horse and congratulate Calvin Borel on another great ride in this remarkable season he is having.
Unofficially, and better for me, Euphony led broke alertly from the gate and led going into the clubhouse turned. Going down the backstretch, Euphony allowed the 90-1 Boudoir to go to the lead. Never trailing the leader by more than a length Euphony took command at the top of the stretch and was easily the best of Indescibable (show) and Kiss With A Twist (place) neither of whom could make up any ground on the winner. Euphony paid 17.80 to win. The $1 exacta, which I also had, paid $49.50. If only I'd played the Trifecta.
6/1 in the morning line, Euphony went off at nearly 8-1. Honestly, I cannot understand how the betting collective allowed Euphony to get off at such a price. Indescribable went of at 4/5 as the deserving favorite. Indescribable, coming off of 2 G3 wins deserved to be the favorite, but not at 4/5. There are two reasons I can think of for Euphony to be so relatively dismissed: 1) No G3 wins and 2) no experience on artificial surfaces.
When I am handicapping Graded Stakes races. The first thing I look for are horses which have shown that they are capable of winning at that level. However, when looking specifically at G3 races, one also has to be aware of 1) horses dropping in from G2 races and 2) up and coming horses that are demonstrating good form. Euphony obviously comes out of that latter group and is really the type you need to be on the lookout for because you won't get 8 to 1 on her next race. In many ways, this reminds me of Wild Promises who came to CRC last year after dominating stakes races at Golden Gate. Wild Promises went off at 5/1 that race and I couldn't believe my good fortune. Good luck getting 5/1 on Wild Promises after that race.
Thus, I come to the other hang up we handicappers have. Euphony's lack of artificial surface form. One item that I have recently been incorporating into my handicapping tool-kit is pedigree. I have previously pretty much paid no attention to pedigree, but have recently been learning of how powerful a tool pedigree can actually be. If one checks Euphony's pedigree, she was sired by Forest Wildcat out of the Smart Strike mare Strike It Up. Accordign to the Sire Stats book put out by Thoroughbred Sports Network, both of sides of Euphony's pedigree are above average (B rated) all-weather surface sires. But in this case, I didn't need to refer to the reference book to know that Euphony would handle the surface fine. As I wrote before, Euphony had won 4 consecutive stakes races on at 4 different tracks, 2 on turf, and 2 on dirt. In addition, Euphony had been training very well at Arlington including 2 bullet workouts over fake dirt. There was no doubt in my mind that Euphony would handle the surface. Some horses care about the surface and some don't. Euphony clearly fits into the latter category.
Ok, so much for my big win of the day, what about all those losses. The Sheepshead Bay at Belmont was a pretty simple race to handicap. Criticism was the horse to beat, and there was a way to beat him. Unfortunately, Kiaran McLaughlin's uncoupled entry raced as an uncoupled entry as both horses, in tandem, dropped to the back of the pack at the start of the race and Criticism was once again allowed to relax on an uncontested lead. The past performances suggested that Colina Verde, ridden by Alan Garcia, might be inclined to apply some pressure to Criticism and make him actually work for his lead. Instead, Garcia instantly applied a choke hold to Colina Verde at the start and Criticism led the field from wire to wire without ever being truly challenged. An outcome which I warned of but didn't wager on.
The Louisville handicap at Churchill Downs just turned out to be one of those races that all handicappers run into. Brass Hat has been winless for the last year and a half. At one time a top grass runner, it seemed as if 8 year old gelding's best competitive years were behind him. The real disappointment in this race was betting choice Always First who never really seriously contended in this race. Spice Route and Thabazimbi pretty much went as expected and just got beat today. I think the clues to Always First less than inspired performance likely lies in the comment lines for his last two races: 1) Lacked closing bid and 2) failed to menace. Perhaps at 8 years of age, Always First is losing interest. Note for next time. Check out the race replay.
Perhaps the most surprising outcome was in the Hanshin Hdcp. While not considered a contender for my selection purposes T=the winner, Vacation, ridden by J. R. Velazquez and trained by Claude "Shug" McGaughey (Gee, I wish I had a great nickname like that) was not a shocker. I thought Stonehouse would regress based upon his recent figure patterns and Cherokee Artist gave it a good effort in finishing 3rd, but Coragil Cat laid a big fat egg out there starting last out of the gate and finishing last at the end. Coming back 2nd off a layoff to a track where he had run well before, this just doesn't figure. But then, racing doesn't always figure. Fortunately for you, this race was a pass. Unfortunately for me, I had to make my play earlier than normal due to unusual circumstances while Coragil Cat was still at playable odds. That'll teach me not to use that conditional option. Looking critically at my own performance, Stonehouse should not have been a contender if I felt he was going to regress to form insufficient to win. I am satisfied with the other selections, if not the outcome. The elimination of Stonehouse as a contender could have made room for a 4th contender or just left it at 3 lowering the needed odds on the remaining 3.
Finally, coming to the HANA race of the week at Canterbury PARK, I had the top two finishers in order despite the race being moved to the main track. OK, really now, does anyone really believe that 10k claimers care about the surface? Especially when most of these weren't particularly the specialist type anyways. My bet was the longshot Elegant Star. I said in my analysis that I thought he was a notch below the others and as it turned out I was correct. But, if you can't take a shot in a race like this, when will you ever take a shot? Elegant Star stayed in contention for about a half and then fell back to bring up the rear, but that's OK. You can't win them all.
There was alot of talk on the HANA discussion group about how this race was a failure for the In The Pool buycott. Also some discussion about how our Canadian cousins were shut out of the action. I hope what has begun as a positive movement to improve the sport we all love doesn't devolve into a pissing contest because everyone can't be pleased all of the time. Sheesh, were horse players, you'd think we'd be used to losing every now and then.
'Til the next time.
Chalk Eating Weasel
Addendum: As reported by Bloodhorse.com, Jockey Rene Douglas has come out of 7 hours of surgery due to injuries incurred in an accident during the Matron Hdcp at Arlington Park yesterday. The incident occured when Born To Be clipped heels with Boudoir after being bumped by Sky Mom. Born To Be threw Douglas and the flipped over and landed on top of the rider. Bloodhorse reports that at this time it is unlikely Douglas will walk again; however that will not be known for certain until the swelling in the spinal area recedes. Bloodhorse also reported that Born To Be has recovered from the incident and has been returned to the barn of trainer Eric Cointreaux.
Pray or hope or make a sacrifice or whatever you do to get a good outcome over something you have no control over for the recovery of Rene Douglas.
Correction: In the post above I said that Brass Hat was, at one time, a top turf horse. The Bloodhorse reports that prior to Saturday's race, Brass Hat had not won in 7 tries over grass hardly qualifying as a top turf horse. All the same, had I been privy to that information, I would've been even less inclined to consider Brass Hat a contender. I remain of the opinion that Brass Hat is a classy horse and congratulate Calvin Borel on another great ride in this remarkable season he is having.
Saturday, May 23, 2009
PH and HANA Pool Picks: May 23
It's Saturday and that means time for another week of Stakes Race and Pool picks from the Chalk Eating Weasel.
The Public Handicapper contest selections give us a little bit of everything from Turf to Synthetics. Throw in a race on turf for cheap claiming horses from HANA and the day is complete.
First lets take on the G2 Sheepshead Bay Stakes for F and M 3 and up at a 11 furlongs. Post time is 5:17 Eastern.
1. Backstreet Rhythm
2-1
3-1
7. Caprice
3-1
9-2
3. Criticism
7-2
5-1
#1 and #3 faced each other in Feb. #3 had it all her own way that day leading from start to finish with no real pressure. Today McLauglin runs an uncoupled entry with Alan Garcia on Colina Verde. Alan's mission, should he choose to accept it, will be to make sure that Criticism doesn't get so comfy on the lead today. Backstreet Rhythm is 3 for 3 at Belmont and should make it 4 for 4 today if the above scenario plays out. Caprice, trained by Graham Motion and ridden by Edgar Prado, is 1 for 3 at the distance and 3 time ITM. She is another who could benefit from the aforementioned scenario. Or Criticism could just run away from them all again today.
Next is the 12 Furlong G3 Louisville Handicap for 3 and up on the Turf. Post Time is 5:29
8. Spice Route
6-5
9-5
5. Always First
7-2
5-1
9.Thabazimbi
6-1
9-1
Spice Route always seems to be the obvious choice, but I never seem to be able to catch him on a winning run. Always First has been first 5 of 13 tries at this distance and ITM 10 of 13. R. Albarado at 19% on Turf should be an improvement over G. Gomez who hasn't fared well on his eastern tour in the big races. Thabazimbi is ridden by J. Leparoux which makes him an automatic contender in my book. Entry level Alw winner in American debut (ridden by Gomez), the step up may be too much, but Leparoux rules @ CD and seems to get the best out of his mounts.
Meanwhile, up in Chicago land
Arlington Park R9 9 Furlongs G3 Arlington Matron Hdcp for F and M 3 and up Post Time 5:57
9. Indescribable
5-2
4-1
7. Euphony
4-1
6-1
#2 Kiss With A Twist
5-1
8-1
#1 Sky Mom
6-1
9-1
Indescribable is the 2-1 ML Favorite and with Desormeaux aboard, not likely to offer much value. Euphony may be the value horse hear, having won 4 consecutive minor stakes at 4 different tracks shows a versatility that is often lacking these days. This horse for any course has fired two bullet w/o's at AP and should handle the surface fine. KWAT ran 3rd on the turf last out in a G2 event at Keeneland and has shown an affinity for fake dirt. Sky Mom comes 2nd off layoff, a G3 winner at AP she should improve off her last effort.
and R10 G3 Hanshin Cup H. for 3 and up. Post Time 6:28
8 Coragil Cat
3-1
9-2
2. Cherokee Artist
7-2
5-1
1. Stonehouse
4-1
6-1
7. Amazing Results
6-1
9-1
I believe in horses for courses and history repeating. Coragil Cat won this race last year with Diego Sanchez aboard. The pace in this race should be fast which will be the perfect set up for a 2nd trip to the Winner's Circle in this race. Cherokee Artist is another that will benefit from a fast early pace. Stonehouse has been tearing up the track, has lots of speed and is not a need to lead type. However I also believe in figure patterns and Stonehouse ran his best race last out at Hawthorne. Amazing Results is 2 for 2 at AP and 1 for 1 at the distance. Will need to step up here to compete coming 2nd off layoff could be worth a flyer at a price.
And now the HANA pool race from Canterbury Downs. An 8 furlong affair for claiming price of $10,000 for F and M 3 and up. Post Time 5:40
1. Darby Lee
3-1
9-2
11. Deb Doright
7-2
5-1
6. Fancy And Quick
4-1
6-1
10 Elegant Star
6-1
9-1
A lot of horses coming up from Turf Paradise, but I'll be going with the horse that wintered in FL. Darby Lee is 2 for 6 on the CBY turf course. 11. Deb Doright breaks from the outside and I think Ry Eikleberry was the leading rider at Tup, but she is yet to get off the schnied in 6 turf tries. 6. FAQ is another Tup immigrant drops a level here but is winless in 9 turf attempts. 10. Elegant star has one win in open claiming co. and a win on the CBY turf, but seems a notch below the others
That does it for today. Remember the rules. Play only the overlays. If there are 3 or more overlays it is probable I am more clueless than usual so don't play my picks, I won't. If there are 2 overlays, play the lowest odds horse. If there are two overlays at odds greater than 8-1 then you can play both and Dutch them if you wish. The first set of odds is what I consider fair. I don't want fair. The 2nd set is fair +50%. Gives me lots of room to be wrong.
Good Luck, enjoy the day and get some winners.
The Public Handicapper contest selections give us a little bit of everything from Turf to Synthetics. Throw in a race on turf for cheap claiming horses from HANA and the day is complete.
First lets take on the G2 Sheepshead Bay Stakes for F and M 3 and up at a 11 furlongs. Post time is 5:17 Eastern.
1. Backstreet Rhythm
2-1
3-1
7. Caprice
3-1
9-2
3. Criticism
7-2
5-1
#1 and #3 faced each other in Feb. #3 had it all her own way that day leading from start to finish with no real pressure. Today McLauglin runs an uncoupled entry with Alan Garcia on Colina Verde. Alan's mission, should he choose to accept it, will be to make sure that Criticism doesn't get so comfy on the lead today. Backstreet Rhythm is 3 for 3 at Belmont and should make it 4 for 4 today if the above scenario plays out. Caprice, trained by Graham Motion and ridden by Edgar Prado, is 1 for 3 at the distance and 3 time ITM. She is another who could benefit from the aforementioned scenario. Or Criticism could just run away from them all again today.
Next is the 12 Furlong G3 Louisville Handicap for 3 and up on the Turf. Post Time is 5:29
8. Spice Route
6-5
9-5
5. Always First
7-2
5-1
9.Thabazimbi
6-1
9-1
Spice Route always seems to be the obvious choice, but I never seem to be able to catch him on a winning run. Always First has been first 5 of 13 tries at this distance and ITM 10 of 13. R. Albarado at 19% on Turf should be an improvement over G. Gomez who hasn't fared well on his eastern tour in the big races. Thabazimbi is ridden by J. Leparoux which makes him an automatic contender in my book. Entry level Alw winner in American debut (ridden by Gomez), the step up may be too much, but Leparoux rules @ CD and seems to get the best out of his mounts.
Meanwhile, up in Chicago land
Arlington Park R9 9 Furlongs G3 Arlington Matron Hdcp for F and M 3 and up Post Time 5:57
9. Indescribable
5-2
4-1
7. Euphony
4-1
6-1
#2 Kiss With A Twist
5-1
8-1
#1 Sky Mom
6-1
9-1
Indescribable is the 2-1 ML Favorite and with Desormeaux aboard, not likely to offer much value. Euphony may be the value horse hear, having won 4 consecutive minor stakes at 4 different tracks shows a versatility that is often lacking these days. This horse for any course has fired two bullet w/o's at AP and should handle the surface fine. KWAT ran 3rd on the turf last out in a G2 event at Keeneland and has shown an affinity for fake dirt. Sky Mom comes 2nd off layoff, a G3 winner at AP she should improve off her last effort.
and R10 G3 Hanshin Cup H. for 3 and up. Post Time 6:28
8 Coragil Cat
3-1
9-2
2. Cherokee Artist
7-2
5-1
1. Stonehouse
4-1
6-1
7. Amazing Results
6-1
9-1
I believe in horses for courses and history repeating. Coragil Cat won this race last year with Diego Sanchez aboard. The pace in this race should be fast which will be the perfect set up for a 2nd trip to the Winner's Circle in this race. Cherokee Artist is another that will benefit from a fast early pace. Stonehouse has been tearing up the track, has lots of speed and is not a need to lead type. However I also believe in figure patterns and Stonehouse ran his best race last out at Hawthorne. Amazing Results is 2 for 2 at AP and 1 for 1 at the distance. Will need to step up here to compete coming 2nd off layoff could be worth a flyer at a price.
And now the HANA pool race from Canterbury Downs. An 8 furlong affair for claiming price of $10,000 for F and M 3 and up. Post Time 5:40
1. Darby Lee
3-1
9-2
11. Deb Doright
7-2
5-1
6. Fancy And Quick
4-1
6-1
10 Elegant Star
6-1
9-1
A lot of horses coming up from Turf Paradise, but I'll be going with the horse that wintered in FL. Darby Lee is 2 for 6 on the CBY turf course. 11. Deb Doright breaks from the outside and I think Ry Eikleberry was the leading rider at Tup, but she is yet to get off the schnied in 6 turf tries. 6. FAQ is another Tup immigrant drops a level here but is winless in 9 turf attempts. 10. Elegant star has one win in open claiming co. and a win on the CBY turf, but seems a notch below the others
That does it for today. Remember the rules. Play only the overlays. If there are 3 or more overlays it is probable I am more clueless than usual so don't play my picks, I won't. If there are 2 overlays, play the lowest odds horse. If there are two overlays at odds greater than 8-1 then you can play both and Dutch them if you wish. The first set of odds is what I consider fair. I don't want fair. The 2nd set is fair +50%. Gives me lots of room to be wrong.
Good Luck, enjoy the day and get some winners.
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Somebody Pinch Me
Somebody wake me up. I think I just had a bad dream. A 50-1 shot just closed me out of all of my Derby bets! What? It wasn't a Dream!? Arrrrrgh!
Well all the same. Congratulations to Calvin Borel, Mine That Bird, and all his connections. This is what makes this game is simultaneously exhilirating and infuriating.
It's dinner time and my dog needs to poop. See ya next week
Well all the same. Congratulations to Calvin Borel, Mine That Bird, and all his connections. This is what makes this game is simultaneously exhilirating and infuriating.
It's dinner time and my dog needs to poop. See ya next week
Rachel Romps, Weasel Chomps
Even at 1.5 to 5 the Weasel couldn't resist the allure of that equine siren, Rachel Alexandra. My $20.00 wager netted $6.00. I couldn't help myself. It's like going to the laudromat and finding $6.00 wadded up in the drier. How can you just leave it there?
Now I still have a live Oaks/Derby Double ticket with 6 Derby contenders: Hold Me Back, Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, Chocolate Candy, I Want Revenge, and Pioneerof The Nile. Some of these will pay a reasonable amount considering the heavy favortism of Rachel Alexandra and all will at least pay for the total wager, so I'm feeling pretty good about that. Kudos to Greg Calabrese for finding out the will pays http://gregcalabrese.blogspot.com/2009/05/oaksderby-will-pays.html.
Although, I still reserve the right to change my mind. Right now, Freisan Fire is my huckleberry to win the roses. Pioneerof The Nile is my #2, but if the track is off, I may change my mind on that one. Regal Ransom is #3 and I Want Revenge is #4.
Having a live Double ticket gives me the luxury of spreading a few $2 win bets on some of the longer prices that may have a chance, so on that basis, I can have at least half the field covered.
Now for a special treat, I received the following E-Mail from Mark Cramer CX Report. Since there is no warning not to republish this information and I'm no longer a subscriber to his report, I feel no guilt about publishing this for the world to see. Bear in mind, I have nothing but great respect for Mr. Cramer. His books have opened my eyes to the possibities available in handicapping horses and have much enhanced my enjoyment of the sport. However, I don't feel he really has his heart into the CX Report and with its sporadic publishing schedule I didn't feel like it was worth the subscription price and didn't renew for another year. But they still send me E-Mails and this time I actually got content due to their server being down. Mark's analysis of major races is like no one elses. So here it is for you.
is being sent via email as our blog was not working -- also some thoughts from Nick Kling belowDerby 2009 Final Post but .As always, I do a final post but reserve the right to leave somethingfor Saturday morning in case there is any new development, somethingthat happened in the BC when I posted a late discovery on Desert Codeon Saturday morning.I see my top three Derby horses as evenly ranked but for entirelydifferent reasons. Obligated to provide a ranking, I resort to thepotential value.Top ranked: DESERT PARTY. In addition to what I've said in previousposts, I can add two things. We can note that DP threw in a clunker inthe Hopeful, behind Vineyard Haven. DP has defeated Vineyard Haventwice, one prior to the Hopeful and then in Dubai, by more than 10lengths. This is an indicator of a developing horse. Second, DP'sstable is 3 for 4 with Dominguez aboard. And of course, DP's pedigreeand the fact that he's won on the mud, in case the rain issignificant.Second. FRIESAN FIRE. We can be concerned about the fact that FF's bigimprove was on a sloppy track. That track had been sealed and there isa good chance that, with a 70% chance of rains for both Friday andSaturday, Churchill will seal the track. Larry Jones has twicefinished second with high-odds horses. FF could be another second forLJ.Third. I WANT REVENGE. I looked again at Talamo's description of theWood. He said that IWR did not even run until the last eighth. If forsome reason there is not much odds differential between FF and IWR, Iwould reverse this order of preference.POSSIBLE STEALER: I had mentioned that REGAL RANSOM took advantage ofa track bias in Dubai, but if Churchill is sealed, he may get anearly-speed bias once again. Not much speed in this field. Join theDance has enjoyed slow fractions in his two front-running route racesand gotten beaten both times. RR's only bad race was on syntheticsurface.FIFTY-TO-ONE TRIFECTA INCLUSION: SUMMER BIRD's only knock is lack ofexperience, but luck at those increasing speed figures! He has TripleCrown pedigree. He was on the way to passing Papa Clem, a horse whosepicture has been taken with the Derby favorites.I don't know what to say about DUNKIRK. On pure ability he shouldcontend for this race. But the trainer is snakebit in the Derby,Dunkirk did not race as a two year old, and he must be frail to haveonly raced three times so far. If he wins, we can look back and seereasons why, but if he does and I don't have him, I will sleep wellanyway.PIONEER OF THE NILE is the other horse I am leaving out. I continue tofeel that the SA Derby should be demoted to Grade 2. He has not beenon dirt and his dirt works beg interpretation. I wish I did not haveto make judgments about this extra surface factor. I wish they wouldjust run 'em on good old dirt. The SA synthetic horses can't evendefeat invading turf shippers on their own "soil". Again, if Baffertwins this one, I will still sleep well.mcNick Kling is a fine handicapper, one of the best in the nation. Sincehe's not available at the usual sources, I felt it would beinteresting for you to read his arguments. Having to handicap thetrack condition while handicapping the race has never been easy.One last note, repeated from other Stakes Weekends. This is not a toutservice. I try to provide information, or at least extract it, in asobjective a way as possible. Many C&X readers are fine handicappers.You don't need a guru and the fun of this game is making your ownchoice, using the information that is available. My job is simply todig for info that you may not have seen, info you can add to your ownanalysis if you deem it worthy.Enjoy this great day of the year and be confident in your own wisdom.Mark TROY RECORD MAY 2, 2009 A FIRE IN KENTUCKY Let's get right to the point. I think FRIESAN FIRE is going to win the Kentucky Derby, and Iwon't be surprised if he wins big. Here are several reasons why. 1) PACE: As it said here yesterday, the loss of three qualityspeed horses to injury has dramatically changed the 135th Derby.Where once the pace could have easily been fast, setting up closerslike Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile, it is now likely to be moderate. The most likely race set-up is for impossible longshot Join Inthe Dance to get the lead. Closest to him will be Regal Ransom.Friesan Fire should be positioned third or fourth in the run down thebackstretch. He will not be far off the leader, unless Join In theDance is launched from the gate by jockey Chris Decarlo, settingsprinter's fractions. Even if that materializes, Friesan Fire will have a hugetactical edge over the closers. Jerry Bailey once said the pace of arace is not determined by the frontrunner. Rather, said Bailey, whatthe second horse does is more important. Regal Ransom's jockey AlanGarcia is not likely to fall into the trap of chasing Join In theDance, a horse almost certain to stop like he has a flat tire. If I am correct, Regal Ransom and Friesan Fire will settle intoa comfortable gait, waiting to make their move. 2) WEATHER/TRACK CONDITION: The forecast for Louisville,Kentucky, site of Churchill Downs and the Derby, is for moisture.There could be possible thunder showers in the morning, followed bysteady, light rain in the afternoon. Churchill's track superintendent, Butch Lehr, is a master atmanaging the dirt surface. Nine times out of ten he can transformswamp into fast going by Derby post time. However, if the forecast iscorrect, he may have to seal the track -- push it into a flat, firmsurface so rain runs off. That traditionally favors horses with early speed, and thosewith experience racing over similar conditions. Friesan Fire won theLouisiana Derby on a sloppy, sealed track, demolishing what wasconsidered an excellent field. Conversely, prime contenders Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile, and IWant Revenge, have never seen that type of surface. The latter pairhave galloped over wet going at Churchill in recent days, but that isnot the same as catching gobs of mud in your face, or being asked togive maximum effort on unfamiliar footing. Mid-level prospect Desert Party won a stake at Saratoga oversealed mud, while Papa Clem finished a distant second to Friesan Firein the Louisiana Derby. If the track is actually wet at Derby posttime, they could prove the primary threats. 3) PATTERNS: Friesan Fire comes into the race in a manner verysimilar to Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Like Friesan Fire, both weretrained by Larry Jones. Both finished second, running well enough towin. Friesan Fire reprised Hard Spun's blistering pre-Derby workout,going five furlongs in 57 and change. Eight Belles trained fast aswell. Like Friesan Fire, she had not raced farther than one andone-sixteenth miles before the Derby. 4) SYNTHETIC TRACKS: Six of the Derby entrants have never won arace on dirt. Most of them have either never raced on dirt, or shownno ability over it. That includes prime contender Pioneerof the Nile,as well as mid-level prospects Chocolate Candy and Hold Me Back. Is there a chance that one or more of those colts will likeChurchill dirt? Of course. Is it wise to risk a wager on an animaltrying something it has never done? Only if the odds are right. Pioneerof the Nile is 4-1 on the morning line. Accepting thoseodds on an unknown commodity is a license to lose. At the minimum,demand twice the price. Hold Me Back (15-1), Chocolate Candy (20-1), and Mr. Hot Stuff(30-1), can be considered if their odds do not drop. It would bepreferable to hold out for more. 5) OTHER QUESTIONS: If racing legends like Secretariat, SeattleSlew, and Spectacular Bid can lose, any horse can lose. What is themost likely scenario which could lead to a Friesan Fire loss, otherthan random bad luck? If I'm wrong about the pace, or if Gabriel Saez prematurelysends Friesan Fire after the leaders, he could lose. A dry trackmight be less speed-favoring than a wet one. Both of thoseeventualities would help stalker/closers. The most likely winner other than Friesan Fire is DUNKIRK. I was prepared to like this horse, love him even. Dunkirk'sFebruary 19 allowance victory at Gulfstream was eye-catching. Horsesdon't win at Gulfstream Park the way he did that day. Where some saw Dunkirk's loss to Quality Road as a sign thelatter was superior, I saw a talented runner-up defeated bycircumstances -- a slow pace and speed-biased track. And don'tunderestimate how good Quality Road was that day. If he was healthyand in this race, Quality Road might have been my top choice. I don't believe Dunkirk's lack of seasoning will hurt him. Therules for winning the Kentucky Derby have changed, and he may be themost talented horse in the race. I WANT REVENGE has run well enough to win the Derby, but onlyif Friesan Fire and Dunkirk fail to improve. The likelihood is bothwill today. It is almost a certainty one will. Call me a superstitious fool, but I can't shake the notion theracing spirits will anoint a horse other than I Want Revenge. Thereis bad karma surrounding trainer Jeff Mullins. A Mullins win would beakin to the Black Sox having gotten away unpunished after the 1919World Series. Kentucky Derby Selections: 1) Friesan Fire, 2) Dunkirk, 3) IWant Revenge, 4) Desert Party.
Good luck and enjoy the racing today.
Now I still have a live Oaks/Derby Double ticket with 6 Derby contenders: Hold Me Back, Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, Chocolate Candy, I Want Revenge, and Pioneerof The Nile. Some of these will pay a reasonable amount considering the heavy favortism of Rachel Alexandra and all will at least pay for the total wager, so I'm feeling pretty good about that. Kudos to Greg Calabrese for finding out the will pays http://gregcalabrese.blogspot.com/2009/05/oaksderby-will-pays.html.
Although, I still reserve the right to change my mind. Right now, Freisan Fire is my huckleberry to win the roses. Pioneerof The Nile is my #2, but if the track is off, I may change my mind on that one. Regal Ransom is #3 and I Want Revenge is #4.
Having a live Double ticket gives me the luxury of spreading a few $2 win bets on some of the longer prices that may have a chance, so on that basis, I can have at least half the field covered.
Now for a special treat, I received the following E-Mail from Mark Cramer CX Report. Since there is no warning not to republish this information and I'm no longer a subscriber to his report, I feel no guilt about publishing this for the world to see. Bear in mind, I have nothing but great respect for Mr. Cramer. His books have opened my eyes to the possibities available in handicapping horses and have much enhanced my enjoyment of the sport. However, I don't feel he really has his heart into the CX Report and with its sporadic publishing schedule I didn't feel like it was worth the subscription price and didn't renew for another year. But they still send me E-Mails and this time I actually got content due to their server being down. Mark's analysis of major races is like no one elses. So here it is for you.
is being sent via email as our blog was not working -- also some thoughts from Nick Kling belowDerby 2009 Final Post but .As always, I do a final post but reserve the right to leave somethingfor Saturday morning in case there is any new development, somethingthat happened in the BC when I posted a late discovery on Desert Codeon Saturday morning.I see my top three Derby horses as evenly ranked but for entirelydifferent reasons. Obligated to provide a ranking, I resort to thepotential value.Top ranked: DESERT PARTY. In addition to what I've said in previousposts, I can add two things. We can note that DP threw in a clunker inthe Hopeful, behind Vineyard Haven. DP has defeated Vineyard Haventwice, one prior to the Hopeful and then in Dubai, by more than 10lengths. This is an indicator of a developing horse. Second, DP'sstable is 3 for 4 with Dominguez aboard. And of course, DP's pedigreeand the fact that he's won on the mud, in case the rain issignificant.Second. FRIESAN FIRE. We can be concerned about the fact that FF's bigimprove was on a sloppy track. That track had been sealed and there isa good chance that, with a 70% chance of rains for both Friday andSaturday, Churchill will seal the track. Larry Jones has twicefinished second with high-odds horses. FF could be another second forLJ.Third. I WANT REVENGE. I looked again at Talamo's description of theWood. He said that IWR did not even run until the last eighth. If forsome reason there is not much odds differential between FF and IWR, Iwould reverse this order of preference.POSSIBLE STEALER: I had mentioned that REGAL RANSOM took advantage ofa track bias in Dubai, but if Churchill is sealed, he may get anearly-speed bias once again. Not much speed in this field. Join theDance has enjoyed slow fractions in his two front-running route racesand gotten beaten both times. RR's only bad race was on syntheticsurface.FIFTY-TO-ONE TRIFECTA INCLUSION: SUMMER BIRD's only knock is lack ofexperience, but luck at those increasing speed figures! He has TripleCrown pedigree. He was on the way to passing Papa Clem, a horse whosepicture has been taken with the Derby favorites.I don't know what to say about DUNKIRK. On pure ability he shouldcontend for this race. But the trainer is snakebit in the Derby,Dunkirk did not race as a two year old, and he must be frail to haveonly raced three times so far. If he wins, we can look back and seereasons why, but if he does and I don't have him, I will sleep wellanyway.PIONEER OF THE NILE is the other horse I am leaving out. I continue tofeel that the SA Derby should be demoted to Grade 2. He has not beenon dirt and his dirt works beg interpretation. I wish I did not haveto make judgments about this extra surface factor. I wish they wouldjust run 'em on good old dirt. The SA synthetic horses can't evendefeat invading turf shippers on their own "soil". Again, if Baffertwins this one, I will still sleep well.mcNick Kling is a fine handicapper, one of the best in the nation. Sincehe's not available at the usual sources, I felt it would beinteresting for you to read his arguments. Having to handicap thetrack condition while handicapping the race has never been easy.One last note, repeated from other Stakes Weekends. This is not a toutservice. I try to provide information, or at least extract it, in asobjective a way as possible. Many C&X readers are fine handicappers.You don't need a guru and the fun of this game is making your ownchoice, using the information that is available. My job is simply todig for info that you may not have seen, info you can add to your ownanalysis if you deem it worthy.Enjoy this great day of the year and be confident in your own wisdom.Mark TROY RECORD MAY 2, 2009 A FIRE IN KENTUCKY Let's get right to the point. I think FRIESAN FIRE is going to win the Kentucky Derby, and Iwon't be surprised if he wins big. Here are several reasons why. 1) PACE: As it said here yesterday, the loss of three qualityspeed horses to injury has dramatically changed the 135th Derby.Where once the pace could have easily been fast, setting up closerslike Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile, it is now likely to be moderate. The most likely race set-up is for impossible longshot Join Inthe Dance to get the lead. Closest to him will be Regal Ransom.Friesan Fire should be positioned third or fourth in the run down thebackstretch. He will not be far off the leader, unless Join In theDance is launched from the gate by jockey Chris Decarlo, settingsprinter's fractions. Even if that materializes, Friesan Fire will have a hugetactical edge over the closers. Jerry Bailey once said the pace of arace is not determined by the frontrunner. Rather, said Bailey, whatthe second horse does is more important. Regal Ransom's jockey AlanGarcia is not likely to fall into the trap of chasing Join In theDance, a horse almost certain to stop like he has a flat tire. If I am correct, Regal Ransom and Friesan Fire will settle intoa comfortable gait, waiting to make their move. 2) WEATHER/TRACK CONDITION: The forecast for Louisville,Kentucky, site of Churchill Downs and the Derby, is for moisture.There could be possible thunder showers in the morning, followed bysteady, light rain in the afternoon. Churchill's track superintendent, Butch Lehr, is a master atmanaging the dirt surface. Nine times out of ten he can transformswamp into fast going by Derby post time. However, if the forecast iscorrect, he may have to seal the track -- push it into a flat, firmsurface so rain runs off. That traditionally favors horses with early speed, and thosewith experience racing over similar conditions. Friesan Fire won theLouisiana Derby on a sloppy, sealed track, demolishing what wasconsidered an excellent field. Conversely, prime contenders Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile, and IWant Revenge, have never seen that type of surface. The latter pairhave galloped over wet going at Churchill in recent days, but that isnot the same as catching gobs of mud in your face, or being asked togive maximum effort on unfamiliar footing. Mid-level prospect Desert Party won a stake at Saratoga oversealed mud, while Papa Clem finished a distant second to Friesan Firein the Louisiana Derby. If the track is actually wet at Derby posttime, they could prove the primary threats. 3) PATTERNS: Friesan Fire comes into the race in a manner verysimilar to Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Like Friesan Fire, both weretrained by Larry Jones. Both finished second, running well enough towin. Friesan Fire reprised Hard Spun's blistering pre-Derby workout,going five furlongs in 57 and change. Eight Belles trained fast aswell. Like Friesan Fire, she had not raced farther than one andone-sixteenth miles before the Derby. 4) SYNTHETIC TRACKS: Six of the Derby entrants have never won arace on dirt. Most of them have either never raced on dirt, or shownno ability over it. That includes prime contender Pioneerof the Nile,as well as mid-level prospects Chocolate Candy and Hold Me Back. Is there a chance that one or more of those colts will likeChurchill dirt? Of course. Is it wise to risk a wager on an animaltrying something it has never done? Only if the odds are right. Pioneerof the Nile is 4-1 on the morning line. Accepting thoseodds on an unknown commodity is a license to lose. At the minimum,demand twice the price. Hold Me Back (15-1), Chocolate Candy (20-1), and Mr. Hot Stuff(30-1), can be considered if their odds do not drop. It would bepreferable to hold out for more. 5) OTHER QUESTIONS: If racing legends like Secretariat, SeattleSlew, and Spectacular Bid can lose, any horse can lose. What is themost likely scenario which could lead to a Friesan Fire loss, otherthan random bad luck? If I'm wrong about the pace, or if Gabriel Saez prematurelysends Friesan Fire after the leaders, he could lose. A dry trackmight be less speed-favoring than a wet one. Both of thoseeventualities would help stalker/closers. The most likely winner other than Friesan Fire is DUNKIRK. I was prepared to like this horse, love him even. Dunkirk'sFebruary 19 allowance victory at Gulfstream was eye-catching. Horsesdon't win at Gulfstream Park the way he did that day. Where some saw Dunkirk's loss to Quality Road as a sign thelatter was superior, I saw a talented runner-up defeated bycircumstances -- a slow pace and speed-biased track. And don'tunderestimate how good Quality Road was that day. If he was healthyand in this race, Quality Road might have been my top choice. I don't believe Dunkirk's lack of seasoning will hurt him. Therules for winning the Kentucky Derby have changed, and he may be themost talented horse in the race. I WANT REVENGE has run well enough to win the Derby, but onlyif Friesan Fire and Dunkirk fail to improve. The likelihood is bothwill today. It is almost a certainty one will. Call me a superstitious fool, but I can't shake the notion theracing spirits will anoint a horse other than I Want Revenge. Thereis bad karma surrounding trainer Jeff Mullins. A Mullins win would beakin to the Black Sox having gotten away unpunished after the 1919World Series. Kentucky Derby Selections: 1) Friesan Fire, 2) Dunkirk, 3) IWant Revenge, 4) Desert Party.
Good luck and enjoy the racing today.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Kentucky Oaks/Derby Talk
Everyone's talking about the goings on in Louisville this weekend, and the Weasel is not about to be left out of the conversation. However, first a brief rant about the goings on at Hollywood Park.
What's up with all of these ridiculously short fields. Jeebus, I feel like I'm playing Golden Gate Fields. Unfortunately, the Weasel smells a rat here. It is no secret that the owner of the property, Bay Meadows Land Company, would like to tear the track down and replace it with some type of shopping, entertainment, and office center. Just what California needs, right?
Now I read that today's card is cancelled due to the inability to fill the races. Not enough horses to go around. Where did they all go?
Now, the evil land developers need to have that property rezoned in order to realize their grandiose plan. I can think of no better way to convince the Inglewood City Council to rezone the property than to make the track become an utter failure.
Being very libertarian and a believer in property rights, BMLC should have the right to develop the property as they see fit so long as they do no harm to their neighbors. That is just a general opinion based on principle. I really don't know enough details about the situation to be more controversial than that. However, don't destroy the racing just to get your way! Run some real races rather than these 4 horse farces you refer to as a card. There, I feel better now.
Now on to more important things. First analysis of the Kentucky Oaks. Rachel Alexandra. Really, do I need to say more? Just look at the form and you'll find only two horses that even should be sniffing the same track she's on. I'm almost surprised she didn't opt for the Derby, but with such easy pickins here, why strain oneself? Save it up for the inevitable Breeder's Cup Match up against Zenyatta.
Rachel Alexander is 3/5 in the ML , and I would play her at that price. Otherwise, I see no way to extract any value from this race.
On the other hand, this year's derby is a handicappers dream race. This is one of the few races I am approaching from a win oriented approach rather than value. The favorite in this race could very well go off at 7/2 or 4/1, so if you like it play it. Simple.
First, I'll begin with the horses with no chance. Breaking from post 20, Flying Private has been close but no "Cigar" since breaking his maiden. He's no Big Brown, I knew Big Brown, I saw Big Brown in the Florida Derby from the 12 post and the Derby from 20. Flying Private is no Big Brown.
We'll skip over the luckless Desert Party for a moment and move to Nowhere To Hide. Sometimes I love the computerized absurdities that pass for comments on the Brisnet PP's. In this case the quote is "May improve with blinkers added today." Rocket powered roller skates won't be enough for Nowhere To Hide, but, I suppose when you pay 250k for yearling, you're going to see him run in the Derby, no matter what.
From the 17th post Summer Bird is another toss out having never beaten winners. Besides, there's not enough room on the trophy for the owners Kalarikkal K and Vilasini Jayaraman. They give horses strange names?
#14 Atomic Rain lost in the Wood Memorial to a horse that got left at the gate and slammed in the stretch. Maybe had Atomic Rain got slammed in the stretch, but more about later. Besides, Joe Bravo never seems to get the best rides outside of New Jersey.
I know #12 General Quarters is the sappy story of the Derby. But he needed the Bluegrass to get in. I didn't get the impression Hold Me Back was all that well intended in the Bluegrass and expect Cinderella to turn into a pumpkin sometime down the back stretch.
Join In the Dance gets Pletcher's 2nd stringer for the ride is yet another horse that has never won a race with other winners in it.
Mine That Bird, I hope Calvin Borel enjoys his trip on Rachel Alexandra because that will be his glory trip for the weekend.
The only horses that run in the Lexington, 2 weeks before the Derby, are those that are in desparate need for graded earnings or those with no Derby plans. Advice is among the former of that group. I don't think you are likely to come back and win the Derby 2 weeks after winning the Lexington.
Mr. Hot Stuff is another with only a maiden win to show for his effort and ran behind Pioneerof The Nile and Chocolate Candy in the Santa Anita Derby.
Finally we have West Side Bernie. Another horse that got beat by a horse left at the gate and slammed in the stretch. How can he win here?
Well, that conveniently eliminates 9 of 20, not bad for a first pass.
Now I have the horses who have a shot, but seem unlikely to me either because I don't think they are quite good enough, or they were unlucky in the post position draw.
Speaking of unlucky in the post position draw, lets go back to post 19 and Desert Party. Its a shame to come from half way around the world only to wind up in the grandstand of the auxilliary gate. Yes its been done before. But two years in a row. I wouldn't bet on it.
#13 I Want Revenge. Ok, I know I'm going to be in trouble for this one, but I have some questions about the strength of a race where the winner is the one that was left at the gate and slammed down the stretch. I do give Joe Talamo all the credit in the world for keeping his wits about him and getting I Want Revenge back in the hunt. But the fact is, had I Want Revenge not been slammed out to the 6 path, there is no way he wins that race. Horses can't move laterally at that pace naturally and it took an unnatural act to get him there. Besides, I just wonder if Joe Talamo is quite ready to step up to the big time. I may be wrong here, but I'll take a stand against I Want Revenge.
#7 Papa Clem is getting better and added a new dimension to his game in the Ark. Derby. But he as lost to Friesan Fire and Pioneerof The Nile both of whom have a little more experience at the stalk and pounce game
#2 Musket Man has done little wrong, but I think the quality of this race may be somewhat above what Musket Man has faced in Tampa and Hawthorne. Maybe I'm just being snobbish, but neither of these places are A list Tracks.
All that being said, I would not be in total shock if any of these horses won the race and I would certainly have them filling out my superfecta ticket if I played superfectas.
Now for the real contenders.
#5 Hold Me Back--Does anyone get the feeling I do that he was using the Bluegrass as a tune up for the big race? In a race with plenty of pace his closing style will be well served if he can get a good trip. Desormeaux knows how to find those good trips.
#10 Regal Ransom beat some of the world's best last out and has the ability to avoid trouble at the calvary charge start and find good position. I think Garcia made the correct choice here.
#11 Chocolate Candy. Jenny Craig's horse finished 2nd a beaten length to Pioneerof The Nile, is a G3 winner and may be able to stay close enough to the pace without having to fight all the traffic the stone closers will face.
#15 Dunkirk didn't have a chance on the Gulfstream turnpike but made a race of it anyway. Should find the extra distance and honest pace to his liking. However, he will have to fight his way through the crowd as he is a slow starter.
That leaves me with Pioneerof The Nile and Friesan Fire. Its too bad The Pamplemousse was unable to make the Santa Anita Derby. I really wanted to see that race. And I'm not worried about the artificial to dirt angle. I really don't understand that logic. I can understand the reverse, that a horse might not take to an artificial surface. But horses evolved and then were developed domestically running on grass and dirt. It seems to me that should be a normal as getting up in the morning. I do worry about the 16th pp for Pioneerof The Nile which is why I am making a well rested, dirt loving, and long stretch drive loving Friesan Fire my number one choice. I'll be playing FF to win and keying him and Pioneerof The Nile in exactas with the other real contenders.
Oh, and if the prices justify it, they probably won't, I'll be looking to single Rachel Alexandra with any and all of my contenders in the Oaks/Derby double.
That's all for now folks.
What's up with all of these ridiculously short fields. Jeebus, I feel like I'm playing Golden Gate Fields. Unfortunately, the Weasel smells a rat here. It is no secret that the owner of the property, Bay Meadows Land Company, would like to tear the track down and replace it with some type of shopping, entertainment, and office center. Just what California needs, right?
Now I read that today's card is cancelled due to the inability to fill the races. Not enough horses to go around. Where did they all go?
Now, the evil land developers need to have that property rezoned in order to realize their grandiose plan. I can think of no better way to convince the Inglewood City Council to rezone the property than to make the track become an utter failure.
Being very libertarian and a believer in property rights, BMLC should have the right to develop the property as they see fit so long as they do no harm to their neighbors. That is just a general opinion based on principle. I really don't know enough details about the situation to be more controversial than that. However, don't destroy the racing just to get your way! Run some real races rather than these 4 horse farces you refer to as a card. There, I feel better now.
Now on to more important things. First analysis of the Kentucky Oaks. Rachel Alexandra. Really, do I need to say more? Just look at the form and you'll find only two horses that even should be sniffing the same track she's on. I'm almost surprised she didn't opt for the Derby, but with such easy pickins here, why strain oneself? Save it up for the inevitable Breeder's Cup Match up against Zenyatta.
Rachel Alexander is 3/5 in the ML , and I would play her at that price. Otherwise, I see no way to extract any value from this race.
On the other hand, this year's derby is a handicappers dream race. This is one of the few races I am approaching from a win oriented approach rather than value. The favorite in this race could very well go off at 7/2 or 4/1, so if you like it play it. Simple.
First, I'll begin with the horses with no chance. Breaking from post 20, Flying Private has been close but no "Cigar" since breaking his maiden. He's no Big Brown, I knew Big Brown, I saw Big Brown in the Florida Derby from the 12 post and the Derby from 20. Flying Private is no Big Brown.
We'll skip over the luckless Desert Party for a moment and move to Nowhere To Hide. Sometimes I love the computerized absurdities that pass for comments on the Brisnet PP's. In this case the quote is "May improve with blinkers added today." Rocket powered roller skates won't be enough for Nowhere To Hide, but, I suppose when you pay 250k for yearling, you're going to see him run in the Derby, no matter what.
From the 17th post Summer Bird is another toss out having never beaten winners. Besides, there's not enough room on the trophy for the owners Kalarikkal K and Vilasini Jayaraman. They give horses strange names?
#14 Atomic Rain lost in the Wood Memorial to a horse that got left at the gate and slammed in the stretch. Maybe had Atomic Rain got slammed in the stretch, but more about later. Besides, Joe Bravo never seems to get the best rides outside of New Jersey.
I know #12 General Quarters is the sappy story of the Derby. But he needed the Bluegrass to get in. I didn't get the impression Hold Me Back was all that well intended in the Bluegrass and expect Cinderella to turn into a pumpkin sometime down the back stretch.
Join In the Dance gets Pletcher's 2nd stringer for the ride is yet another horse that has never won a race with other winners in it.
Mine That Bird, I hope Calvin Borel enjoys his trip on Rachel Alexandra because that will be his glory trip for the weekend.
The only horses that run in the Lexington, 2 weeks before the Derby, are those that are in desparate need for graded earnings or those with no Derby plans. Advice is among the former of that group. I don't think you are likely to come back and win the Derby 2 weeks after winning the Lexington.
Mr. Hot Stuff is another with only a maiden win to show for his effort and ran behind Pioneerof The Nile and Chocolate Candy in the Santa Anita Derby.
Finally we have West Side Bernie. Another horse that got beat by a horse left at the gate and slammed in the stretch. How can he win here?
Well, that conveniently eliminates 9 of 20, not bad for a first pass.
Now I have the horses who have a shot, but seem unlikely to me either because I don't think they are quite good enough, or they were unlucky in the post position draw.
Speaking of unlucky in the post position draw, lets go back to post 19 and Desert Party. Its a shame to come from half way around the world only to wind up in the grandstand of the auxilliary gate. Yes its been done before. But two years in a row. I wouldn't bet on it.
#13 I Want Revenge. Ok, I know I'm going to be in trouble for this one, but I have some questions about the strength of a race where the winner is the one that was left at the gate and slammed down the stretch. I do give Joe Talamo all the credit in the world for keeping his wits about him and getting I Want Revenge back in the hunt. But the fact is, had I Want Revenge not been slammed out to the 6 path, there is no way he wins that race. Horses can't move laterally at that pace naturally and it took an unnatural act to get him there. Besides, I just wonder if Joe Talamo is quite ready to step up to the big time. I may be wrong here, but I'll take a stand against I Want Revenge.
#7 Papa Clem is getting better and added a new dimension to his game in the Ark. Derby. But he as lost to Friesan Fire and Pioneerof The Nile both of whom have a little more experience at the stalk and pounce game
#2 Musket Man has done little wrong, but I think the quality of this race may be somewhat above what Musket Man has faced in Tampa and Hawthorne. Maybe I'm just being snobbish, but neither of these places are A list Tracks.
All that being said, I would not be in total shock if any of these horses won the race and I would certainly have them filling out my superfecta ticket if I played superfectas.
Now for the real contenders.
#5 Hold Me Back--Does anyone get the feeling I do that he was using the Bluegrass as a tune up for the big race? In a race with plenty of pace his closing style will be well served if he can get a good trip. Desormeaux knows how to find those good trips.
#10 Regal Ransom beat some of the world's best last out and has the ability to avoid trouble at the calvary charge start and find good position. I think Garcia made the correct choice here.
#11 Chocolate Candy. Jenny Craig's horse finished 2nd a beaten length to Pioneerof The Nile, is a G3 winner and may be able to stay close enough to the pace without having to fight all the traffic the stone closers will face.
#15 Dunkirk didn't have a chance on the Gulfstream turnpike but made a race of it anyway. Should find the extra distance and honest pace to his liking. However, he will have to fight his way through the crowd as he is a slow starter.
That leaves me with Pioneerof The Nile and Friesan Fire. Its too bad The Pamplemousse was unable to make the Santa Anita Derby. I really wanted to see that race. And I'm not worried about the artificial to dirt angle. I really don't understand that logic. I can understand the reverse, that a horse might not take to an artificial surface. But horses evolved and then were developed domestically running on grass and dirt. It seems to me that should be a normal as getting up in the morning. I do worry about the 16th pp for Pioneerof The Nile which is why I am making a well rested, dirt loving, and long stretch drive loving Friesan Fire my number one choice. I'll be playing FF to win and keying him and Pioneerof The Nile in exactas with the other real contenders.
Oh, and if the prices justify it, they probably won't, I'll be looking to single Rachel Alexandra with any and all of my contenders in the Oaks/Derby double.
That's all for now folks.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Some Saturday Picks
No time for chit chat. Need to help out with some housework to maintain domestic tranquility before I go to CRC for some live racing later this afternoon. Thought I'd give you some picks to chew on before I leave.
First in line is the HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) the 100k Pretty Jenny Stakes for 3yo Fillies restricted to Illinois breds from Hawthorne Park in Chicago.
I have to admit that I dont really have a good feel for this race so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle and looked for horses making 3yo debut after showing promise as 2yo's. Here are the picks. I will most likely only make a token wager on this one just for the cause.
P# 6th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Miss Fontana
3-1
9-2
#10 Happy Henrietta
7-2
5-1
#3 Tessies Tilbury
4-1
6-1
#9 Cumulonimble
6-1
9-1
The HANA Race of the week and I have to admit that I really don't have a good feel for this matchup of Ill breds, so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle of looking for horses that showed promise as 2 yo's making their 3 yo debut. #2 fits that bill winning her 2 yo debut and a State bred stakes before being put on the shelf in Aug last year. Inez Karlsson gets back on. #10 also fits the profile in winning 2yo debut and a state bred stakes in December, comes back after a 4 month freshening. #3 is one for two and could keep on improving with a Hi % jockey aboard and 2nd place OCn1x effort against non state breds. #9 hasn't won yet, but has been in the money 3 of 3 as a 2yo including 2nd in state restricted race and is making 3yo debut. Brandon Meier made the right decision in coming back to Chicago.
Opening Saturday at Calder Race Course and 4 stakes make the opening weekend card including two Graded stakes. I was disappointed to see they were not running with their 2:30 Friday post times this year. I've really enjoyed leaving work on Fridays and catching the late half of the card. I will miss that a lot. I can still do the simulcast from some other track, but its just not the same as seeing real horses.
The 7th race today is the 1 1/2 Mile (turf) LaPrevoyante Handicap-G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.
P# 7th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Criticism
1-1
3-2
#2 Long Approach
5-1
8-1
#3 Icon Project
6-1
9-1
#4 2 time G3 Marathon winner is definitely the one to beat #2 Hi % turf jockey Desormeaux travels south from Ky to team up with Hi % trainer Johnathan Sheppard, not for nothing. #3 Wolfson comes back to the track he dominates and Trujillo rides at track he dominated 2 years ago. Wolfy always has a shot a Calder
Next is the 1 mile 70 yards Emergency Nurse Stakes-Purse 55k for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
P# 8th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Annabill
6-5
9-5
#7 Eclisse
7-2
5-1
#2 Tiara Di Oro
6-1
9-1
#6 The other Wolfson gets his chance to shine here. Annabill wins at a near 50% clip at CRC is 4 of 9 at the distance, is a stakes winner and comes into the race fresh. #7 Marty Wolfson's horse is the only speed in the race and may be able to steal it on the front end. #2 The 2nd Marty Wolfson entry in the race is lightly raced and showing improvement in its last 3 races.
Race 9 is the 1 Mile (Turf) Miami Mile Handicap G3 for 3 and up.
P# 9th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Rogue Victory
3-1
9-2
#6 Mambo Meister
7-2
5-1
#1 Vanquisher
4-1
6-1
#10 Baron Von Tap
6-1
9-1
I'm expecting that Finallymadeit, Dream Maestro, and Motovato, will scratch out of this race and move to the 10 on dirt where they are also entered, but I have not yet been able to confirm this.#2 Does anyone think Desormeaux is giving up opening Sat. at CD to lose in S. Fla #2 has won 3 of 9 and his running lines look like he's getting ready to pop a big one. #6 is a stakes winner and 1 for three on CRC Turf. Manny Cruz gets back on the Meister. #1 Another tough customer, Stakes winner that is 6 for 17 on the sod with a High % Trainer. #10 may do nothing and may be the upset special of the day. Veteran turf specialist (8yo) with loads of back class has been revived since moving to Ziadie's barn 4 races ago.
And finally the 1 Mile 70 yards Sumter Stakes 55k for 3 and up.
P# 10th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Dream Maestro
3-1
9-2
#1 Hey Byrn
7-2
5-1
#7 Motovato
4-1
6-1
#8 Finallymadeit
6-1
9-1
#6 Finally gets to turn the tables on the 8 in a race where the 8 should face more of a pace challenge from Hal's My Hope and Honey Honey Honey. #1 comes in fresh off a turf effort where it became obvious he didn't belong. The rest should do him good and expect return to January form #7 Elvis and Marty team up again and this is another that has the look of a horse moving forward, expect a big effort here. #8 Negrete keeps putting this one out there every 21 days and this one keeps running; however others in this race may show a greater willingness to challenge this need to leader for the early fractions this time. Still this is a gritty horse that can't be totally discounted.
Note as of this writing the 3 dual entered horses have not scratched from either race. Depending on how the scratches fall out, all of the above for races 9 and 10 could be horse manure.
First in line is the HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) the 100k Pretty Jenny Stakes for 3yo Fillies restricted to Illinois breds from Hawthorne Park in Chicago.
I have to admit that I dont really have a good feel for this race so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle and looked for horses making 3yo debut after showing promise as 2yo's. Here are the picks. I will most likely only make a token wager on this one just for the cause.
P# 6th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Miss Fontana
3-1
9-2
#10 Happy Henrietta
7-2
5-1
#3 Tessies Tilbury
4-1
6-1
#9 Cumulonimble
6-1
9-1
The HANA Race of the week and I have to admit that I really don't have a good feel for this matchup of Ill breds, so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle of looking for horses that showed promise as 2 yo's making their 3 yo debut. #2 fits that bill winning her 2 yo debut and a State bred stakes before being put on the shelf in Aug last year. Inez Karlsson gets back on. #10 also fits the profile in winning 2yo debut and a state bred stakes in December, comes back after a 4 month freshening. #3 is one for two and could keep on improving with a Hi % jockey aboard and 2nd place OCn1x effort against non state breds. #9 hasn't won yet, but has been in the money 3 of 3 as a 2yo including 2nd in state restricted race and is making 3yo debut. Brandon Meier made the right decision in coming back to Chicago.
Opening Saturday at Calder Race Course and 4 stakes make the opening weekend card including two Graded stakes. I was disappointed to see they were not running with their 2:30 Friday post times this year. I've really enjoyed leaving work on Fridays and catching the late half of the card. I will miss that a lot. I can still do the simulcast from some other track, but its just not the same as seeing real horses.
The 7th race today is the 1 1/2 Mile (turf) LaPrevoyante Handicap-G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.
P# 7th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Criticism
1-1
3-2
#2 Long Approach
5-1
8-1
#3 Icon Project
6-1
9-1
#4 2 time G3 Marathon winner is definitely the one to beat #2 Hi % turf jockey Desormeaux travels south from Ky to team up with Hi % trainer Johnathan Sheppard, not for nothing. #3 Wolfson comes back to the track he dominates and Trujillo rides at track he dominated 2 years ago. Wolfy always has a shot a Calder
Next is the 1 mile 70 yards Emergency Nurse Stakes-Purse 55k for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
P# 8th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Annabill
6-5
9-5
#7 Eclisse
7-2
5-1
#2 Tiara Di Oro
6-1
9-1
#6 The other Wolfson gets his chance to shine here. Annabill wins at a near 50% clip at CRC is 4 of 9 at the distance, is a stakes winner and comes into the race fresh. #7 Marty Wolfson's horse is the only speed in the race and may be able to steal it on the front end. #2 The 2nd Marty Wolfson entry in the race is lightly raced and showing improvement in its last 3 races.
Race 9 is the 1 Mile (Turf) Miami Mile Handicap G3 for 3 and up.
P# 9th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Rogue Victory
3-1
9-2
#6 Mambo Meister
7-2
5-1
#1 Vanquisher
4-1
6-1
#10 Baron Von Tap
6-1
9-1
I'm expecting that Finallymadeit, Dream Maestro, and Motovato, will scratch out of this race and move to the 10 on dirt where they are also entered, but I have not yet been able to confirm this.#2 Does anyone think Desormeaux is giving up opening Sat. at CD to lose in S. Fla #2 has won 3 of 9 and his running lines look like he's getting ready to pop a big one. #6 is a stakes winner and 1 for three on CRC Turf. Manny Cruz gets back on the Meister. #1 Another tough customer, Stakes winner that is 6 for 17 on the sod with a High % Trainer. #10 may do nothing and may be the upset special of the day. Veteran turf specialist (8yo) with loads of back class has been revived since moving to Ziadie's barn 4 races ago.
And finally the 1 Mile 70 yards Sumter Stakes 55k for 3 and up.
P# 10th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Dream Maestro
3-1
9-2
#1 Hey Byrn
7-2
5-1
#7 Motovato
4-1
6-1
#8 Finallymadeit
6-1
9-1
#6 Finally gets to turn the tables on the 8 in a race where the 8 should face more of a pace challenge from Hal's My Hope and Honey Honey Honey. #1 comes in fresh off a turf effort where it became obvious he didn't belong. The rest should do him good and expect return to January form #7 Elvis and Marty team up again and this is another that has the look of a horse moving forward, expect a big effort here. #8 Negrete keeps putting this one out there every 21 days and this one keeps running; however others in this race may show a greater willingness to challenge this need to leader for the early fractions this time. Still this is a gritty horse that can't be totally discounted.
Note as of this writing the 3 dual entered horses have not scratched from either race. Depending on how the scratches fall out, all of the above for races 9 and 10 could be horse manure.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
New Arrival
It's been an unusual lag from my last post. I've had a cold this week that has kept me feeling pretty run down. Hard to handicap when you're feeling run down. But the main deterrent to my writing is a lack of time due to a new arrival in my family. A lively 6-week old Jack Russell Terrier named Max. All puppies are very demanding on your time, and, as a breed, Jack's are particularly demanding and require a lot of personal attention. The good side of this is I am going to have to be more selective in the races I choose to handicap. The bad news is that I may have to curtail some of my track time. There are always trade-offs. Thank the gods for Twinspires.
Yesterday, I was feeling a little better, so between trips to the back yard to "go potty" I managed to handicap the 4 stakes races at Keeneland, with some good success as it turned out.
I just missed in the Grade 3 Shakertown backing Chamberlain Bridge @ 5-1. I thought 5-1 was a pretty good price on CB. I tossed his last race at Tampa figuring that he didn't care for the surface at Tampa. Florida Turf courses, especially at the 2nd tier courses such as Calder and Tampa can be much different than the type at other tracks such as the Fair Grounds Chamberlain Bridge had shipped from. Even Gulfstream's Turf course has been running like the Florida Turnpike because of the general lack of rain we've had this winter. I thought CB would bounce back after that effort and give a good account of himself which he did finishing a game 3rd behind Cannonball and the winner Heroes Reward.
The pay off race was the G2 Commonwealth Stakes. Hard to ignore Eternal Star with his last ten races all having triple digit Brisnet speed figures. Plus, has My Pal Charlie won anything of significance before or since his Superderby win last year? Yet he still seems to draw a lot of money. I always consider him a bet against feeling he is one of the those over-rated horses making his reputation off the result of one big win. Today was no different as Eternal Star brought home $5.60 for every dollar laid and triggered a 47.00 exacta for me.
I sat out the Grade 2 Jenny Wiley stakes figuring Forever Together just had too much of a class edge over the rest of the field and everyone would know it. I was right on both counts as Julian Leparoux hand rode Forever Together to a win that wasn't as close as the box score would indicate. Forever Together went off at even money which may have been a low priced overlay considering the circumstances. Still I like to look for those bombers that score so often on turf, and there just didn't seem to be any in this race.
Sad to say, I didn't have General Quarters in the Bluegrass as my bias against former claiming horses (ThisonesforPhil?) once again made him a toss out for me. Still, this is a great story and one that will have the television people gushing all Derby week long now that the General will run in the big show (where, incidentally, I will once again exhibit my former claiming horse bias and toss early from contention).
I didn't play the Arkansas Derby, but have to note after watching the replay that Papa Clem showed a new dimension in winning that race. One that could make him a serious contender for the roses on May 2.
And on the business side, I have to note that, once again, the Florida Horseman's Association and Twin Spires are fighting over simulcast revenue so that, once again, it seems if I want to place a bet on a race at Calder, I'll have to make the 10 minute schlep over to the track. I don't really mind as I enjoy the track, but there are times, like yesterday, when other aspects of life have to take priority and I'd just like to isolate a few races and play the home game. So, once again, the racing business factions feud among themselves and the customer is the one who winds up getting screwed. All the more reason for us horse players to organize and flex some of our own muscle in groups such as HANA.
HANA has for the last two weeks been running operation "Get In The Pool". Every Tuesday a smaller track is selected and members of HANA descend upon that track for a designated race to show how much influence HANA as an organization can have. I have to say, I think this is a brilliant idea. Two Tuesdays ago we descended upon Will Rogers Downs where we flooded the win pool of one of the races and increased the handle for that race on that day by 97.2%. Last week it was off to Tampa Bay where we nearly doubled (99.4%) the P3 Pool for races 6-7-8. This Tuesday the lucky recipient of our buycott money will be a Mountaineer exacta pool (race to be determined). By banding together as horseplayers, perhaps we can finally show the business that they ultimately need us, the paying customers, if they hope to remain viable. Join HANA, the price is right, free. And check the website for the next buycott race. http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/
Yesterday, I was feeling a little better, so between trips to the back yard to "go potty" I managed to handicap the 4 stakes races at Keeneland, with some good success as it turned out.
I just missed in the Grade 3 Shakertown backing Chamberlain Bridge @ 5-1. I thought 5-1 was a pretty good price on CB. I tossed his last race at Tampa figuring that he didn't care for the surface at Tampa. Florida Turf courses, especially at the 2nd tier courses such as Calder and Tampa can be much different than the type at other tracks such as the Fair Grounds Chamberlain Bridge had shipped from. Even Gulfstream's Turf course has been running like the Florida Turnpike because of the general lack of rain we've had this winter. I thought CB would bounce back after that effort and give a good account of himself which he did finishing a game 3rd behind Cannonball and the winner Heroes Reward.
The pay off race was the G2 Commonwealth Stakes. Hard to ignore Eternal Star with his last ten races all having triple digit Brisnet speed figures. Plus, has My Pal Charlie won anything of significance before or since his Superderby win last year? Yet he still seems to draw a lot of money. I always consider him a bet against feeling he is one of the those over-rated horses making his reputation off the result of one big win. Today was no different as Eternal Star brought home $5.60 for every dollar laid and triggered a 47.00 exacta for me.
I sat out the Grade 2 Jenny Wiley stakes figuring Forever Together just had too much of a class edge over the rest of the field and everyone would know it. I was right on both counts as Julian Leparoux hand rode Forever Together to a win that wasn't as close as the box score would indicate. Forever Together went off at even money which may have been a low priced overlay considering the circumstances. Still I like to look for those bombers that score so often on turf, and there just didn't seem to be any in this race.
Sad to say, I didn't have General Quarters in the Bluegrass as my bias against former claiming horses (ThisonesforPhil?) once again made him a toss out for me. Still, this is a great story and one that will have the television people gushing all Derby week long now that the General will run in the big show (where, incidentally, I will once again exhibit my former claiming horse bias and toss early from contention).
I didn't play the Arkansas Derby, but have to note after watching the replay that Papa Clem showed a new dimension in winning that race. One that could make him a serious contender for the roses on May 2.
And on the business side, I have to note that, once again, the Florida Horseman's Association and Twin Spires are fighting over simulcast revenue so that, once again, it seems if I want to place a bet on a race at Calder, I'll have to make the 10 minute schlep over to the track. I don't really mind as I enjoy the track, but there are times, like yesterday, when other aspects of life have to take priority and I'd just like to isolate a few races and play the home game. So, once again, the racing business factions feud among themselves and the customer is the one who winds up getting screwed. All the more reason for us horse players to organize and flex some of our own muscle in groups such as HANA.
HANA has for the last two weeks been running operation "Get In The Pool". Every Tuesday a smaller track is selected and members of HANA descend upon that track for a designated race to show how much influence HANA as an organization can have. I have to say, I think this is a brilliant idea. Two Tuesdays ago we descended upon Will Rogers Downs where we flooded the win pool of one of the races and increased the handle for that race on that day by 97.2%. Last week it was off to Tampa Bay where we nearly doubled (99.4%) the P3 Pool for races 6-7-8. This Tuesday the lucky recipient of our buycott money will be a Mountaineer exacta pool (race to be determined). By banding together as horseplayers, perhaps we can finally show the business that they ultimately need us, the paying customers, if they hope to remain viable. Join HANA, the price is right, free. And check the website for the next buycott race. http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Fair Grounds Stakes
This week the Publichandicappers.com races are all at the Fair Grounds which is one of my favorite tracks to play, so how could I resist.
The first race in the contest is #5 on the Program: The Bienville 75k for Fillies and Mares 4 years old and up contested at 5.5 f on the Turf track.
Aside, New Orleans is expecting rain today. If this race or the other Turf race is moved to the main track, all bets are off.
Here are the picks.
#4 Classify
3-1
7-2
#2 Tale To Be Told
7-2
5-1
#7 Lady Chace
4-1
6-1
#6 Precious Kiss
6-1
9-1
#4 Classify is 2 for 2 over the Fairgrounds Turf including a win in a similar race two ago. Asmussen will have his regular rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard #2 Tale to Be Told beat the top choice in November at Churchill. I wouldn't dismiss a cart horse on turf if Leparoux is riding it. #7 Lady Chace beat the top choice on dirt last out, but Classify seems to hold the edge on grass. #6 Precious Kiss is another that has beaten the top choice on dirt. Being the granddaughter of Kris S. gives her some turf pedigree and will make her dangerous is grandpa's influence is strong. She is somewhat inexperienced on grass and that may work against her.
The next contest race is #7 on the card. The G2 New Orleans Handicap for 4 and up. Distance 9f.
#10 Honest Man
3-1
9-2
#4 Dry Martini
7-2
5-1
#1 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#8 Good And Lucky
6-1
9-1
In a field of some really good, but no seemingly great horses I have to once again give the home team advantage to #10 Honest Man. HM is 4 of 5 over the FG track and won the G3 Mineshaft over this same course last out. #4 Dry Martini ships over from Gulfstream and should benefit from that excruciatingly long Fair Grounds stretch with his late running style. #1 It's A Bird also ships over from Gulfstream, but please don't call me a homer (although some have called me a Homer). Bird ran a big figure in the Sunshine Millions Classic, and I promise you that Wolfson's horses don't bounce. #8 Good and Lucky gets the nod over Wishful Tomcat for 4th contender due to home track advantage having 4 wins in 7 tries at the Fair Grounds
Race 8 is the Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial H. G2 For 4 and up again at 9f on the turf.
Again, if this one is moved to the main track, the following picks may be total nonsense. (so the difference would be?)
#6 Soldier's Dancer
3-1
9-2
#13 Proudinsky
7-2
5-1
#11 Demarcation
4-1
6-1
#1 Windward Islands
6-1
9-1
#6 Soldier's Dancer benefits from the fact that Proudinsky starts from the far outside 14th post does his best running late which may be helpful if the Fair Grounds gets enough rain to soften up the course without taking the race off the grass #13 gets to break from the far outside post. Maybe the long FG stretch will give him an opportunity to find a good position to race from. G2 winner I think is really the best here #11 Demarcation, winner of G2 event at Churchill last November figures to improve 2nd off layoff and 2nd trip over FG course. #1 Windward Islands is in good current form after finishing 2nd in the FG HDCP (G3) and should move forward off that effort.
Finally its the G2 Louisianna Derby (Race 9) at 8.5f for 3 year olds
#3 Patena
3-1
9-2
#9 Friesan Fire
7-2
5-1
#8 Papa Clem
4-1
6-1
#5 Flying Pegasus
6-1
9-1
#3 Patena is today's upset special being taken over by Richard Dutrow and IEAH. There is something remarkable about how horses suddenly improve first out under Dutrow's tutelage (This One's For Phil, for instance). Maybe he's just a great horseman, or maybe he cheats. Either way, he's 33% first time with a horse and 21% in Graded Stakes. Having leading FG rider Robbie Albarado doesn't hurt. #9 Friesan Fire has beaten 6 of the horses in this race before, including the top choice. A repeat would not surprise. #8 Papa Clem spent his last race chasing Pioneerofthe Nile and should set the pace in a relatively paceless race. #5 Flying Pegasus finished 2nd to the 9 last out, but Albardo moves to Patena. Hmmmm
That's all folks. Good luck and enjoy the races.
The first race in the contest is #5 on the Program: The Bienville 75k for Fillies and Mares 4 years old and up contested at 5.5 f on the Turf track.
Aside, New Orleans is expecting rain today. If this race or the other Turf race is moved to the main track, all bets are off.
Here are the picks.
#4 Classify
3-1
7-2
#2 Tale To Be Told
7-2
5-1
#7 Lady Chace
4-1
6-1
#6 Precious Kiss
6-1
9-1
#4 Classify is 2 for 2 over the Fairgrounds Turf including a win in a similar race two ago. Asmussen will have his regular rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard #2 Tale to Be Told beat the top choice in November at Churchill. I wouldn't dismiss a cart horse on turf if Leparoux is riding it. #7 Lady Chace beat the top choice on dirt last out, but Classify seems to hold the edge on grass. #6 Precious Kiss is another that has beaten the top choice on dirt. Being the granddaughter of Kris S. gives her some turf pedigree and will make her dangerous is grandpa's influence is strong. She is somewhat inexperienced on grass and that may work against her.
The next contest race is #7 on the card. The G2 New Orleans Handicap for 4 and up. Distance 9f.
#10 Honest Man
3-1
9-2
#4 Dry Martini
7-2
5-1
#1 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#8 Good And Lucky
6-1
9-1
In a field of some really good, but no seemingly great horses I have to once again give the home team advantage to #10 Honest Man. HM is 4 of 5 over the FG track and won the G3 Mineshaft over this same course last out. #4 Dry Martini ships over from Gulfstream and should benefit from that excruciatingly long Fair Grounds stretch with his late running style. #1 It's A Bird also ships over from Gulfstream, but please don't call me a homer (although some have called me a Homer). Bird ran a big figure in the Sunshine Millions Classic, and I promise you that Wolfson's horses don't bounce. #8 Good and Lucky gets the nod over Wishful Tomcat for 4th contender due to home track advantage having 4 wins in 7 tries at the Fair Grounds
Race 8 is the Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial H. G2 For 4 and up again at 9f on the turf.
Again, if this one is moved to the main track, the following picks may be total nonsense. (so the difference would be?)
#6 Soldier's Dancer
3-1
9-2
#13 Proudinsky
7-2
5-1
#11 Demarcation
4-1
6-1
#1 Windward Islands
6-1
9-1
#6 Soldier's Dancer benefits from the fact that Proudinsky starts from the far outside 14th post does his best running late which may be helpful if the Fair Grounds gets enough rain to soften up the course without taking the race off the grass #13 gets to break from the far outside post. Maybe the long FG stretch will give him an opportunity to find a good position to race from. G2 winner I think is really the best here #11 Demarcation, winner of G2 event at Churchill last November figures to improve 2nd off layoff and 2nd trip over FG course. #1 Windward Islands is in good current form after finishing 2nd in the FG HDCP (G3) and should move forward off that effort.
Finally its the G2 Louisianna Derby (Race 9) at 8.5f for 3 year olds
#3 Patena
3-1
9-2
#9 Friesan Fire
7-2
5-1
#8 Papa Clem
4-1
6-1
#5 Flying Pegasus
6-1
9-1
#3 Patena is today's upset special being taken over by Richard Dutrow and IEAH. There is something remarkable about how horses suddenly improve first out under Dutrow's tutelage (This One's For Phil, for instance). Maybe he's just a great horseman, or maybe he cheats. Either way, he's 33% first time with a horse and 21% in Graded Stakes. Having leading FG rider Robbie Albarado doesn't hurt. #9 Friesan Fire has beaten 6 of the horses in this race before, including the top choice. A repeat would not surprise. #8 Papa Clem spent his last race chasing Pioneerofthe Nile and should set the pace in a relatively paceless race. #5 Flying Pegasus finished 2nd to the 9 last out, but Albardo moves to Patena. Hmmmm
That's all folks. Good luck and enjoy the races.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Hooky!
I got to play hooky from work today, sort of. Having a 1:00 dentist appointment, conveniently located near Gulfstream Park, I boogied on out of that dentist's office as soon as they would let me go and managed to get to good ol' GP in time to see the 3rd race go off.
Ah great joy under partly cloudy skies and a very pleasant 74 degrees (I'm too lazy to use superscript). Even managed to win an investment on the 9-1 Mi Carola in the 7th race making for an extra enjoyable day, indeed.
Also watched Kiaran McLaughlin sweat out the race of the heavily favored Hellvelyn who barely beat at the wire the speedy Piratesonthelake. "Never a doubt," he said.
I don't know what's going to happen to Magna Entertainment, but apparently the shopping, office, and entertainment complex located between the track and U.S. 1 is moving right along. There is a story at Miami Herald. com today that says the says the 85% completed project now has 50% of its space leased to prospective tenants. Such tenants will include Crate and Barrel (who needs crates and barrels?) and The Container Store. In addition there will be up to 10 restaurants and other boutique, specialty type stores. In addition, the developer has cut a deal with the Hallandale Beach City Commision that gives them a share of the projected increased tax revenue projected to reach up to $900k annually. That is of course, if anyone is still in business by 2010. Here's the link if your interested in the entire article. http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/922000.html
I noticed that mention of Magna Entertainment was absent. I have no particular love for MEC. I really don't know that much about them except that they are basically broke. Still, I would hate to lose the Gulfstream Winter racing season. Year round racing at Calder Race Course just won't cut it. I love the full competitive fields. It's so much easier finding overlays among the throngs of socialites and vacationers just out for a daily lark than entering the shark pit and short fields at Calder Race Course.
And speaking of short fields, during my phone conversation with JJ Tuttle (remember him?) he strongly suggested betting the longest shot in a short field. Now a short field is defined as 7 or fewer horses. He wrote about this angle in one of his books, I forget which one. Of course, he offered no data to support this thesis, but because this one is a no brainer to test, I have decided to put it to the test. So far this season, this has been a winning angle at Gulfstream with a 10% hit rate out of 50 such races. The angle shows a $175.80 profit based on a $2.00 win bet for each longest shot contender. However, after going back through all of Gulfstream's charts for the 2009 meet so far, I started on CRC. I haven't gotten very far yet, but after 22 qualifying races the angle has been shut out. Now it is possible that tracks like Calder attract a savvier clientele regarding the handicapping of horses than does Gulfstream Park. I will continue tracking Gulfstream through the remainder of the season and work my way back through all the Calder charts that I have. I don't think I have all the charts for CRC on my hard drive, but I think I can get them if I look hard enough. If anyone want's to share in this little project, I suggest you choose an upper echelon track like, say Santa Anita and a more pedestrian track such as Golden Gate Fields. As for me, I'll be tracking the upcoming Keeneland and Churchill Downs meets. I'll keep you up to date with my results. Who knows, maybe I'll owe Mr. Tuttle an apology.
See ya next time.
Ah great joy under partly cloudy skies and a very pleasant 74 degrees (I'm too lazy to use superscript). Even managed to win an investment on the 9-1 Mi Carola in the 7th race making for an extra enjoyable day, indeed.
Also watched Kiaran McLaughlin sweat out the race of the heavily favored Hellvelyn who barely beat at the wire the speedy Piratesonthelake. "Never a doubt," he said.
I don't know what's going to happen to Magna Entertainment, but apparently the shopping, office, and entertainment complex located between the track and U.S. 1 is moving right along. There is a story at Miami Herald. com today that says the says the 85% completed project now has 50% of its space leased to prospective tenants. Such tenants will include Crate and Barrel (who needs crates and barrels?) and The Container Store. In addition there will be up to 10 restaurants and other boutique, specialty type stores. In addition, the developer has cut a deal with the Hallandale Beach City Commision that gives them a share of the projected increased tax revenue projected to reach up to $900k annually. That is of course, if anyone is still in business by 2010. Here's the link if your interested in the entire article. http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/922000.html
I noticed that mention of Magna Entertainment was absent. I have no particular love for MEC. I really don't know that much about them except that they are basically broke. Still, I would hate to lose the Gulfstream Winter racing season. Year round racing at Calder Race Course just won't cut it. I love the full competitive fields. It's so much easier finding overlays among the throngs of socialites and vacationers just out for a daily lark than entering the shark pit and short fields at Calder Race Course.
And speaking of short fields, during my phone conversation with JJ Tuttle (remember him?) he strongly suggested betting the longest shot in a short field. Now a short field is defined as 7 or fewer horses. He wrote about this angle in one of his books, I forget which one. Of course, he offered no data to support this thesis, but because this one is a no brainer to test, I have decided to put it to the test. So far this season, this has been a winning angle at Gulfstream with a 10% hit rate out of 50 such races. The angle shows a $175.80 profit based on a $2.00 win bet for each longest shot contender. However, after going back through all of Gulfstream's charts for the 2009 meet so far, I started on CRC. I haven't gotten very far yet, but after 22 qualifying races the angle has been shut out. Now it is possible that tracks like Calder attract a savvier clientele regarding the handicapping of horses than does Gulfstream Park. I will continue tracking Gulfstream through the remainder of the season and work my way back through all the Calder charts that I have. I don't think I have all the charts for CRC on my hard drive, but I think I can get them if I look hard enough. If anyone want's to share in this little project, I suggest you choose an upper echelon track like, say Santa Anita and a more pedestrian track such as Golden Gate Fields. As for me, I'll be tracking the upcoming Keeneland and Churchill Downs meets. I'll keep you up to date with my results. Who knows, maybe I'll owe Mr. Tuttle an apology.
See ya next time.
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