Rachel Romps, Weasel Chomps

Even at 1.5 to 5 the Weasel couldn't resist the allure of that equine siren, Rachel Alexandra. My $20.00 wager netted $6.00. I couldn't help myself. It's like going to the laudromat and finding $6.00 wadded up in the drier. How can you just leave it there?

Now I still have a live Oaks/Derby Double ticket with 6 Derby contenders: Hold Me Back, Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, Chocolate Candy, I Want Revenge, and Pioneerof The Nile. Some of these will pay a reasonable amount considering the heavy favortism of Rachel Alexandra and all will at least pay for the total wager, so I'm feeling pretty good about that. Kudos to Greg Calabrese for finding out the will pays http://gregcalabrese.blogspot.com/2009/05/oaksderby-will-pays.html.

Although, I still reserve the right to change my mind. Right now, Freisan Fire is my huckleberry to win the roses. Pioneerof The Nile is my #2, but if the track is off, I may change my mind on that one. Regal Ransom is #3 and I Want Revenge is #4.

Having a live Double ticket gives me the luxury of spreading a few $2 win bets on some of the longer prices that may have a chance, so on that basis, I can have at least half the field covered.

Now for a special treat, I received the following E-Mail from Mark Cramer CX Report. Since there is no warning not to republish this information and I'm no longer a subscriber to his report, I feel no guilt about publishing this for the world to see. Bear in mind, I have nothing but great respect for Mr. Cramer. His books have opened my eyes to the possibities available in handicapping horses and have much enhanced my enjoyment of the sport. However, I don't feel he really has his heart into the CX Report and with its sporadic publishing schedule I didn't feel like it was worth the subscription price and didn't renew for another year. But they still send me E-Mails and this time I actually got content due to their server being down. Mark's analysis of major races is like no one elses. So here it is for you.

is being sent via email as our blog was not working -- also some thoughts from Nick Kling belowDerby 2009 Final Post but .As always, I do a final post but reserve the right to leave somethingfor Saturday morning in case there is any new development, somethingthat happened in the BC when I posted a late discovery on Desert Codeon Saturday morning.I see my top three Derby horses as evenly ranked but for entirelydifferent reasons. Obligated to provide a ranking, I resort to thepotential value.Top ranked: DESERT PARTY. In addition to what I've said in previousposts, I can add two things. We can note that DP threw in a clunker inthe Hopeful, behind Vineyard Haven. DP has defeated Vineyard Haventwice, one prior to the Hopeful and then in Dubai, by more than 10lengths. This is an indicator of a developing horse. Second, DP'sstable is 3 for 4 with Dominguez aboard. And of course, DP's pedigreeand the fact that he's won on the mud, in case the rain issignificant.Second. FRIESAN FIRE. We can be concerned about the fact that FF's bigimprove was on a sloppy track. That track had been sealed and there isa good chance that, with a 70% chance of rains for both Friday andSaturday, Churchill will seal the track. Larry Jones has twicefinished second with high-odds horses. FF could be another second forLJ.Third. I WANT REVENGE. I looked again at Talamo's description of theWood. He said that IWR did not even run until the last eighth. If forsome reason there is not much odds differential between FF and IWR, Iwould reverse this order of preference.POSSIBLE STEALER: I had mentioned that REGAL RANSOM took advantage ofa track bias in Dubai, but if Churchill is sealed, he may get anearly-speed bias once again. Not much speed in this field. Join theDance has enjoyed slow fractions in his two front-running route racesand gotten beaten both times. RR's only bad race was on syntheticsurface.FIFTY-TO-ONE TRIFECTA INCLUSION: SUMMER BIRD's only knock is lack ofexperience, but luck at those increasing speed figures! He has TripleCrown pedigree. He was on the way to passing Papa Clem, a horse whosepicture has been taken with the Derby favorites.I don't know what to say about DUNKIRK. On pure ability he shouldcontend for this race. But the trainer is snakebit in the Derby,Dunkirk did not race as a two year old, and he must be frail to haveonly raced three times so far. If he wins, we can look back and seereasons why, but if he does and I don't have him, I will sleep wellanyway.PIONEER OF THE NILE is the other horse I am leaving out. I continue tofeel that the SA Derby should be demoted to Grade 2. He has not beenon dirt and his dirt works beg interpretation. I wish I did not haveto make judgments about this extra surface factor. I wish they wouldjust run 'em on good old dirt. The SA synthetic horses can't evendefeat invading turf shippers on their own "soil". Again, if Baffertwins this one, I will still sleep well.mcNick Kling is a fine handicapper, one of the best in the nation. Sincehe's not available at the usual sources, I felt it would beinteresting for you to read his arguments. Having to handicap thetrack condition while handicapping the race has never been easy.One last note, repeated from other Stakes Weekends. This is not a toutservice. I try to provide information, or at least extract it, in asobjective a way as possible. Many C&X readers are fine handicappers.You don't need a guru and the fun of this game is making your ownchoice, using the information that is available. My job is simply todig for info that you may not have seen, info you can add to your ownanalysis if you deem it worthy.Enjoy this great day of the year and be confident in your own wisdom.Mark TROY RECORD MAY 2, 2009 A FIRE IN KENTUCKY Let's get right to the point. I think FRIESAN FIRE is going to win the Kentucky Derby, and Iwon't be surprised if he wins big. Here are several reasons why. 1) PACE: As it said here yesterday, the loss of three qualityspeed horses to injury has dramatically changed the 135th Derby.Where once the pace could have easily been fast, setting up closerslike Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile, it is now likely to be moderate. The most likely race set-up is for impossible longshot Join Inthe Dance to get the lead. Closest to him will be Regal Ransom.Friesan Fire should be positioned third or fourth in the run down thebackstretch. He will not be far off the leader, unless Join In theDance is launched from the gate by jockey Chris Decarlo, settingsprinter's fractions. Even if that materializes, Friesan Fire will have a hugetactical edge over the closers. Jerry Bailey once said the pace of arace is not determined by the frontrunner. Rather, said Bailey, whatthe second horse does is more important. Regal Ransom's jockey AlanGarcia is not likely to fall into the trap of chasing Join In theDance, a horse almost certain to stop like he has a flat tire. If I am correct, Regal Ransom and Friesan Fire will settle intoa comfortable gait, waiting to make their move. 2) WEATHER/TRACK CONDITION: The forecast for Louisville,Kentucky, site of Churchill Downs and the Derby, is for moisture.There could be possible thunder showers in the morning, followed bysteady, light rain in the afternoon. Churchill's track superintendent, Butch Lehr, is a master atmanaging the dirt surface. Nine times out of ten he can transformswamp into fast going by Derby post time. However, if the forecast iscorrect, he may have to seal the track -- push it into a flat, firmsurface so rain runs off. That traditionally favors horses with early speed, and thosewith experience racing over similar conditions. Friesan Fire won theLouisiana Derby on a sloppy, sealed track, demolishing what wasconsidered an excellent field. Conversely, prime contenders Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile, and IWant Revenge, have never seen that type of surface. The latter pairhave galloped over wet going at Churchill in recent days, but that isnot the same as catching gobs of mud in your face, or being asked togive maximum effort on unfamiliar footing. Mid-level prospect Desert Party won a stake at Saratoga oversealed mud, while Papa Clem finished a distant second to Friesan Firein the Louisiana Derby. If the track is actually wet at Derby posttime, they could prove the primary threats. 3) PATTERNS: Friesan Fire comes into the race in a manner verysimilar to Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Like Friesan Fire, both weretrained by Larry Jones. Both finished second, running well enough towin. Friesan Fire reprised Hard Spun's blistering pre-Derby workout,going five furlongs in 57 and change. Eight Belles trained fast aswell. Like Friesan Fire, she had not raced farther than one andone-sixteenth miles before the Derby. 4) SYNTHETIC TRACKS: Six of the Derby entrants have never won arace on dirt. Most of them have either never raced on dirt, or shownno ability over it. That includes prime contender Pioneerof the Nile,as well as mid-level prospects Chocolate Candy and Hold Me Back. Is there a chance that one or more of those colts will likeChurchill dirt? Of course. Is it wise to risk a wager on an animaltrying something it has never done? Only if the odds are right. Pioneerof the Nile is 4-1 on the morning line. Accepting thoseodds on an unknown commodity is a license to lose. At the minimum,demand twice the price. Hold Me Back (15-1), Chocolate Candy (20-1), and Mr. Hot Stuff(30-1), can be considered if their odds do not drop. It would bepreferable to hold out for more. 5) OTHER QUESTIONS: If racing legends like Secretariat, SeattleSlew, and Spectacular Bid can lose, any horse can lose. What is themost likely scenario which could lead to a Friesan Fire loss, otherthan random bad luck? If I'm wrong about the pace, or if Gabriel Saez prematurelysends Friesan Fire after the leaders, he could lose. A dry trackmight be less speed-favoring than a wet one. Both of thoseeventualities would help stalker/closers. The most likely winner other than Friesan Fire is DUNKIRK. I was prepared to like this horse, love him even. Dunkirk'sFebruary 19 allowance victory at Gulfstream was eye-catching. Horsesdon't win at Gulfstream Park the way he did that day. Where some saw Dunkirk's loss to Quality Road as a sign thelatter was superior, I saw a talented runner-up defeated bycircumstances -- a slow pace and speed-biased track. And don'tunderestimate how good Quality Road was that day. If he was healthyand in this race, Quality Road might have been my top choice. I don't believe Dunkirk's lack of seasoning will hurt him. Therules for winning the Kentucky Derby have changed, and he may be themost talented horse in the race. I WANT REVENGE has run well enough to win the Derby, but onlyif Friesan Fire and Dunkirk fail to improve. The likelihood is bothwill today. It is almost a certainty one will. Call me a superstitious fool, but I can't shake the notion theracing spirits will anoint a horse other than I Want Revenge. Thereis bad karma surrounding trainer Jeff Mullins. A Mullins win would beakin to the Black Sox having gotten away unpunished after the 1919World Series. Kentucky Derby Selections: 1) Friesan Fire, 2) Dunkirk, 3) IWant Revenge, 4) Desert Party.

Good luck and enjoy the racing today.