Kentucky Oaks/Derby Talk

Everyone's talking about the goings on in Louisville this weekend, and the Weasel is not about to be left out of the conversation. However, first a brief rant about the goings on at Hollywood Park.

What's up with all of these ridiculously short fields. Jeebus, I feel like I'm playing Golden Gate Fields. Unfortunately, the Weasel smells a rat here. It is no secret that the owner of the property, Bay Meadows Land Company, would like to tear the track down and replace it with some type of shopping, entertainment, and office center. Just what California needs, right?

Now I read that today's card is cancelled due to the inability to fill the races. Not enough horses to go around. Where did they all go?

Now, the evil land developers need to have that property rezoned in order to realize their grandiose plan. I can think of no better way to convince the Inglewood City Council to rezone the property than to make the track become an utter failure.

Being very libertarian and a believer in property rights, BMLC should have the right to develop the property as they see fit so long as they do no harm to their neighbors. That is just a general opinion based on principle. I really don't know enough details about the situation to be more controversial than that. However, don't destroy the racing just to get your way! Run some real races rather than these 4 horse farces you refer to as a card. There, I feel better now.

Now on to more important things. First analysis of the Kentucky Oaks. Rachel Alexandra. Really, do I need to say more? Just look at the form and you'll find only two horses that even should be sniffing the same track she's on. I'm almost surprised she didn't opt for the Derby, but with such easy pickins here, why strain oneself? Save it up for the inevitable Breeder's Cup Match up against Zenyatta.

Rachel Alexander is 3/5 in the ML , and I would play her at that price. Otherwise, I see no way to extract any value from this race.

On the other hand, this year's derby is a handicappers dream race. This is one of the few races I am approaching from a win oriented approach rather than value. The favorite in this race could very well go off at 7/2 or 4/1, so if you like it play it. Simple.

First, I'll begin with the horses with no chance. Breaking from post 20, Flying Private has been close but no "Cigar" since breaking his maiden. He's no Big Brown, I knew Big Brown, I saw Big Brown in the Florida Derby from the 12 post and the Derby from 20. Flying Private is no Big Brown.

We'll skip over the luckless Desert Party for a moment and move to Nowhere To Hide. Sometimes I love the computerized absurdities that pass for comments on the Brisnet PP's. In this case the quote is "May improve with blinkers added today." Rocket powered roller skates won't be enough for Nowhere To Hide, but, I suppose when you pay 250k for yearling, you're going to see him run in the Derby, no matter what.

From the 17th post Summer Bird is another toss out having never beaten winners. Besides, there's not enough room on the trophy for the owners Kalarikkal K and Vilasini Jayaraman. They give horses strange names?

#14 Atomic Rain lost in the Wood Memorial to a horse that got left at the gate and slammed in the stretch. Maybe had Atomic Rain got slammed in the stretch, but more about later. Besides, Joe Bravo never seems to get the best rides outside of New Jersey.

I know #12 General Quarters is the sappy story of the Derby. But he needed the Bluegrass to get in. I didn't get the impression Hold Me Back was all that well intended in the Bluegrass and expect Cinderella to turn into a pumpkin sometime down the back stretch.

Join In the Dance gets Pletcher's 2nd stringer for the ride is yet another horse that has never won a race with other winners in it.

Mine That Bird, I hope Calvin Borel enjoys his trip on Rachel Alexandra because that will be his glory trip for the weekend.

The only horses that run in the Lexington, 2 weeks before the Derby, are those that are in desparate need for graded earnings or those with no Derby plans. Advice is among the former of that group. I don't think you are likely to come back and win the Derby 2 weeks after winning the Lexington.

Mr. Hot Stuff is another with only a maiden win to show for his effort and ran behind Pioneerof The Nile and Chocolate Candy in the Santa Anita Derby.

Finally we have West Side Bernie. Another horse that got beat by a horse left at the gate and slammed in the stretch. How can he win here?

Well, that conveniently eliminates 9 of 20, not bad for a first pass.

Now I have the horses who have a shot, but seem unlikely to me either because I don't think they are quite good enough, or they were unlucky in the post position draw.

Speaking of unlucky in the post position draw, lets go back to post 19 and Desert Party. Its a shame to come from half way around the world only to wind up in the grandstand of the auxilliary gate. Yes its been done before. But two years in a row. I wouldn't bet on it.

#13 I Want Revenge. Ok, I know I'm going to be in trouble for this one, but I have some questions about the strength of a race where the winner is the one that was left at the gate and slammed down the stretch. I do give Joe Talamo all the credit in the world for keeping his wits about him and getting I Want Revenge back in the hunt. But the fact is, had I Want Revenge not been slammed out to the 6 path, there is no way he wins that race. Horses can't move laterally at that pace naturally and it took an unnatural act to get him there. Besides, I just wonder if Joe Talamo is quite ready to step up to the big time. I may be wrong here, but I'll take a stand against I Want Revenge.

#7 Papa Clem is getting better and added a new dimension to his game in the Ark. Derby. But he as lost to Friesan Fire and Pioneerof The Nile both of whom have a little more experience at the stalk and pounce game

#2 Musket Man has done little wrong, but I think the quality of this race may be somewhat above what Musket Man has faced in Tampa and Hawthorne. Maybe I'm just being snobbish, but neither of these places are A list Tracks.

All that being said, I would not be in total shock if any of these horses won the race and I would certainly have them filling out my superfecta ticket if I played superfectas.

Now for the real contenders.

#5 Hold Me Back--Does anyone get the feeling I do that he was using the Bluegrass as a tune up for the big race? In a race with plenty of pace his closing style will be well served if he can get a good trip. Desormeaux knows how to find those good trips.

#10 Regal Ransom beat some of the world's best last out and has the ability to avoid trouble at the calvary charge start and find good position. I think Garcia made the correct choice here.

#11 Chocolate Candy. Jenny Craig's horse finished 2nd a beaten length to Pioneerof The Nile, is a G3 winner and may be able to stay close enough to the pace without having to fight all the traffic the stone closers will face.

#15 Dunkirk didn't have a chance on the Gulfstream turnpike but made a race of it anyway. Should find the extra distance and honest pace to his liking. However, he will have to fight his way through the crowd as he is a slow starter.

That leaves me with Pioneerof The Nile and Friesan Fire. Its too bad The Pamplemousse was unable to make the Santa Anita Derby. I really wanted to see that race. And I'm not worried about the artificial to dirt angle. I really don't understand that logic. I can understand the reverse, that a horse might not take to an artificial surface. But horses evolved and then were developed domestically running on grass and dirt. It seems to me that should be a normal as getting up in the morning. I do worry about the 16th pp for Pioneerof The Nile which is why I am making a well rested, dirt loving, and long stretch drive loving Friesan Fire my number one choice. I'll be playing FF to win and keying him and Pioneerof The Nile in exactas with the other real contenders.

Oh, and if the prices justify it, they probably won't, I'll be looking to single Rachel Alexandra with any and all of my contenders in the Oaks/Derby double.

That's all for now folks.