Kentucky Oaks/Derby Talk

Everyone's talking about the goings on in Louisville this weekend, and the Weasel is not about to be left out of the conversation. However, first a brief rant about the goings on at Hollywood Park.

What's up with all of these ridiculously short fields. Jeebus, I feel like I'm playing Golden Gate Fields. Unfortunately, the Weasel smells a rat here. It is no secret that the owner of the property, Bay Meadows Land Company, would like to tear the track down and replace it with some type of shopping, entertainment, and office center. Just what California needs, right?

Now I read that today's card is cancelled due to the inability to fill the races. Not enough horses to go around. Where did they all go?

Now, the evil land developers need to have that property rezoned in order to realize their grandiose plan. I can think of no better way to convince the Inglewood City Council to rezone the property than to make the track become an utter failure.

Being very libertarian and a believer in property rights, BMLC should have the right to develop the property as they see fit so long as they do no harm to their neighbors. That is just a general opinion based on principle. I really don't know enough details about the situation to be more controversial than that. However, don't destroy the racing just to get your way! Run some real races rather than these 4 horse farces you refer to as a card. There, I feel better now.

Now on to more important things. First analysis of the Kentucky Oaks. Rachel Alexandra. Really, do I need to say more? Just look at the form and you'll find only two horses that even should be sniffing the same track she's on. I'm almost surprised she didn't opt for the Derby, but with such easy pickins here, why strain oneself? Save it up for the inevitable Breeder's Cup Match up against Zenyatta.

Rachel Alexander is 3/5 in the ML , and I would play her at that price. Otherwise, I see no way to extract any value from this race.

On the other hand, this year's derby is a handicappers dream race. This is one of the few races I am approaching from a win oriented approach rather than value. The favorite in this race could very well go off at 7/2 or 4/1, so if you like it play it. Simple.

First, I'll begin with the horses with no chance. Breaking from post 20, Flying Private has been close but no "Cigar" since breaking his maiden. He's no Big Brown, I knew Big Brown, I saw Big Brown in the Florida Derby from the 12 post and the Derby from 20. Flying Private is no Big Brown.

We'll skip over the luckless Desert Party for a moment and move to Nowhere To Hide. Sometimes I love the computerized absurdities that pass for comments on the Brisnet PP's. In this case the quote is "May improve with blinkers added today." Rocket powered roller skates won't be enough for Nowhere To Hide, but, I suppose when you pay 250k for yearling, you're going to see him run in the Derby, no matter what.

From the 17th post Summer Bird is another toss out having never beaten winners. Besides, there's not enough room on the trophy for the owners Kalarikkal K and Vilasini Jayaraman. They give horses strange names?

#14 Atomic Rain lost in the Wood Memorial to a horse that got left at the gate and slammed in the stretch. Maybe had Atomic Rain got slammed in the stretch, but more about later. Besides, Joe Bravo never seems to get the best rides outside of New Jersey.

I know #12 General Quarters is the sappy story of the Derby. But he needed the Bluegrass to get in. I didn't get the impression Hold Me Back was all that well intended in the Bluegrass and expect Cinderella to turn into a pumpkin sometime down the back stretch.

Join In the Dance gets Pletcher's 2nd stringer for the ride is yet another horse that has never won a race with other winners in it.

Mine That Bird, I hope Calvin Borel enjoys his trip on Rachel Alexandra because that will be his glory trip for the weekend.

The only horses that run in the Lexington, 2 weeks before the Derby, are those that are in desparate need for graded earnings or those with no Derby plans. Advice is among the former of that group. I don't think you are likely to come back and win the Derby 2 weeks after winning the Lexington.

Mr. Hot Stuff is another with only a maiden win to show for his effort and ran behind Pioneerof The Nile and Chocolate Candy in the Santa Anita Derby.

Finally we have West Side Bernie. Another horse that got beat by a horse left at the gate and slammed in the stretch. How can he win here?

Well, that conveniently eliminates 9 of 20, not bad for a first pass.

Now I have the horses who have a shot, but seem unlikely to me either because I don't think they are quite good enough, or they were unlucky in the post position draw.

Speaking of unlucky in the post position draw, lets go back to post 19 and Desert Party. Its a shame to come from half way around the world only to wind up in the grandstand of the auxilliary gate. Yes its been done before. But two years in a row. I wouldn't bet on it.

#13 I Want Revenge. Ok, I know I'm going to be in trouble for this one, but I have some questions about the strength of a race where the winner is the one that was left at the gate and slammed down the stretch. I do give Joe Talamo all the credit in the world for keeping his wits about him and getting I Want Revenge back in the hunt. But the fact is, had I Want Revenge not been slammed out to the 6 path, there is no way he wins that race. Horses can't move laterally at that pace naturally and it took an unnatural act to get him there. Besides, I just wonder if Joe Talamo is quite ready to step up to the big time. I may be wrong here, but I'll take a stand against I Want Revenge.

#7 Papa Clem is getting better and added a new dimension to his game in the Ark. Derby. But he as lost to Friesan Fire and Pioneerof The Nile both of whom have a little more experience at the stalk and pounce game

#2 Musket Man has done little wrong, but I think the quality of this race may be somewhat above what Musket Man has faced in Tampa and Hawthorne. Maybe I'm just being snobbish, but neither of these places are A list Tracks.

All that being said, I would not be in total shock if any of these horses won the race and I would certainly have them filling out my superfecta ticket if I played superfectas.

Now for the real contenders.

#5 Hold Me Back--Does anyone get the feeling I do that he was using the Bluegrass as a tune up for the big race? In a race with plenty of pace his closing style will be well served if he can get a good trip. Desormeaux knows how to find those good trips.

#10 Regal Ransom beat some of the world's best last out and has the ability to avoid trouble at the calvary charge start and find good position. I think Garcia made the correct choice here.

#11 Chocolate Candy. Jenny Craig's horse finished 2nd a beaten length to Pioneerof The Nile, is a G3 winner and may be able to stay close enough to the pace without having to fight all the traffic the stone closers will face.

#15 Dunkirk didn't have a chance on the Gulfstream turnpike but made a race of it anyway. Should find the extra distance and honest pace to his liking. However, he will have to fight his way through the crowd as he is a slow starter.

That leaves me with Pioneerof The Nile and Friesan Fire. Its too bad The Pamplemousse was unable to make the Santa Anita Derby. I really wanted to see that race. And I'm not worried about the artificial to dirt angle. I really don't understand that logic. I can understand the reverse, that a horse might not take to an artificial surface. But horses evolved and then were developed domestically running on grass and dirt. It seems to me that should be a normal as getting up in the morning. I do worry about the 16th pp for Pioneerof The Nile which is why I am making a well rested, dirt loving, and long stretch drive loving Friesan Fire my number one choice. I'll be playing FF to win and keying him and Pioneerof The Nile in exactas with the other real contenders.

Oh, and if the prices justify it, they probably won't, I'll be looking to single Rachel Alexandra with any and all of my contenders in the Oaks/Derby double.

That's all for now folks.

New Arrival

It's been an unusual lag from my last post. I've had a cold this week that has kept me feeling pretty run down. Hard to handicap when you're feeling run down. But the main deterrent to my writing is a lack of time due to a new arrival in my family. A lively 6-week old Jack Russell Terrier named Max. All puppies are very demanding on your time, and, as a breed, Jack's are particularly demanding and require a lot of personal attention. The good side of this is I am going to have to be more selective in the races I choose to handicap. The bad news is that I may have to curtail some of my track time. There are always trade-offs. Thank the gods for Twinspires.

Yesterday, I was feeling a little better, so between trips to the back yard to "go potty" I managed to handicap the 4 stakes races at Keeneland, with some good success as it turned out.

I just missed in the Grade 3 Shakertown backing Chamberlain Bridge @ 5-1. I thought 5-1 was a pretty good price on CB. I tossed his last race at Tampa figuring that he didn't care for the surface at Tampa. Florida Turf courses, especially at the 2nd tier courses such as Calder and Tampa can be much different than the type at other tracks such as the Fair Grounds Chamberlain Bridge had shipped from. Even Gulfstream's Turf course has been running like the Florida Turnpike because of the general lack of rain we've had this winter. I thought CB would bounce back after that effort and give a good account of himself which he did finishing a game 3rd behind Cannonball and the winner Heroes Reward.

The pay off race was the G2 Commonwealth Stakes. Hard to ignore Eternal Star with his last ten races all having triple digit Brisnet speed figures. Plus, has My Pal Charlie won anything of significance before or since his Superderby win last year? Yet he still seems to draw a lot of money. I always consider him a bet against feeling he is one of the those over-rated horses making his reputation off the result of one big win. Today was no different as Eternal Star brought home $5.60 for every dollar laid and triggered a 47.00 exacta for me.

I sat out the Grade 2 Jenny Wiley stakes figuring Forever Together just had too much of a class edge over the rest of the field and everyone would know it. I was right on both counts as Julian Leparoux hand rode Forever Together to a win that wasn't as close as the box score would indicate. Forever Together went off at even money which may have been a low priced overlay considering the circumstances. Still I like to look for those bombers that score so often on turf, and there just didn't seem to be any in this race.

Sad to say, I didn't have General Quarters in the Bluegrass as my bias against former claiming horses (ThisonesforPhil?) once again made him a toss out for me. Still, this is a great story and one that will have the television people gushing all Derby week long now that the General will run in the big show (where, incidentally, I will once again exhibit my former claiming horse bias and toss early from contention).

I didn't play the Arkansas Derby, but have to note after watching the replay that Papa Clem showed a new dimension in winning that race. One that could make him a serious contender for the roses on May 2.

And on the business side, I have to note that, once again, the Florida Horseman's Association and Twin Spires are fighting over simulcast revenue so that, once again, it seems if I want to place a bet on a race at Calder, I'll have to make the 10 minute schlep over to the track. I don't really mind as I enjoy the track, but there are times, like yesterday, when other aspects of life have to take priority and I'd just like to isolate a few races and play the home game. So, once again, the racing business factions feud among themselves and the customer is the one who winds up getting screwed. All the more reason for us horse players to organize and flex some of our own muscle in groups such as HANA.

HANA has for the last two weeks been running operation "Get In The Pool". Every Tuesday a smaller track is selected and members of HANA descend upon that track for a designated race to show how much influence HANA as an organization can have. I have to say, I think this is a brilliant idea. Two Tuesdays ago we descended upon Will Rogers Downs where we flooded the win pool of one of the races and increased the handle for that race on that day by 97.2%. Last week it was off to Tampa Bay where we nearly doubled (99.4%) the P3 Pool for races 6-7-8. This Tuesday the lucky recipient of our buycott money will be a Mountaineer exacta pool (race to be determined). By banding together as horseplayers, perhaps we can finally show the business that they ultimately need us, the paying customers, if they hope to remain viable. Join HANA, the price is right, free. And check the website for the next buycott race. http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/