Well here they are for those who want a good laugh. I sure whiffed on the Black-Eyed Susan. When Hooh Why was scratched every thing was changed, and I should've just passed the race. Haven't seen anything about a HANA in the pool race this week, so I guess were skipping that one as we did for Derby day.
Well, here goes nothing
Pim R8 Hirsch Jacobs Stakes, G3 for 3 year olds
#1 Taqarub
3-1
7-2
#2 Everyday Heroes
7-2
5-1
#7 Nuclear Wayne
9-2
7-1
#8 Yano
5-1
8-1
Speed, Speed, nothing but speed. Give inside posts advantage over outside, but its really anybody's race
Race 10 Maryland Sprind Hdcp G3 for 3 and up
#8 Ravalo
2-1
3-1
#5 Ah Day
4-1
6-1
#2 Grand Traverse
6-1
9-1
#3 Silver Edition
6-1
9-1
#8 Ravalo is 8 for 16 at the distance with last 10 all against stakes company. #5 Recent stakes winner and 5 of 7 at the distance with lots of backclass. Ignore last race at mile #2 Grand Traverse has been showing good form of late, but beware of high speed figure set over sloppy sealed track in last at Chuchill #3 Winner of the 50k Hot Springs hdcp at Oaklawn could step up with Leparoux
Race 11 Dixie Stakes G2 for 3 and up
#3 Parading
3-1
9-2
#4 Kiss The Kid
7-2
5-1
#1 Proudinsky
4-1
6-1
#7 Wesley
6-1
9-1
#3 Comes into race off a nice G3 win and has had a little more time to recover than #1. #4 has won 3 of his last 4 and rarely misfires. He is well rested and should run well here. #1 Proudinsky just bumped heads 2 weeks ago with arguably the best older turf horse in N.A. (Einstein). He will be a factor if he can come back quickly off that race. #7 Had a nice tune-up opening weekend at CRC, but this field is much better than the one he faced in Florida.
R12 The Preakness G1 3 yo's
P# 12th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#9 Pioneeror The Nile
3-1
9-2
#3 Musket Man
7-2
5-1
#5 Friesan Fire
4-1
6-1
#1 Big Drama
5-1
8-1
I'm deliberately ignoring, admittedly perhaps to my detriment, the publicity horse Rachel Alexandra and the Cinderella horse Mine That Bird for reasons I've already discussed. I think Big Drama could run a Big Race here although, supposedly, history regarding fresh horses coming into the Preakness would suggest not. Still, he should be a pace factor and make RA run a little harder than maybe she is used to early.
Showing posts with label Pioneerof The Nile. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pioneerof The Nile. Show all posts
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Friday, May 15, 2009
Black-Eyed Susan and Later Preakness Thoughts
The Black-Eyed Susan for 3yo Fillies. Well I just saw that Hooh Why my top choice is scratched. Matt Carruthers on TVG said we knew about this days ago, but I didn't. Well that sort of changes everything. #8 Don't Forget Gil was my 2nd choice, but Hooh Why was a major pace factor and I envisioned a scenario where Hooh Why and Casanova Move would hook up early and set the race up for Don't Forget Gil.
That all being said I think I am going to stay with Don't Forget Gil and make Renda the 3rd choice and keep Casanova Move as the 2nd choice. The reasoning is simple. Casanova Move is always sniffing around the money, but she hasn't won since she broke her maiden. Don't Forget Gil has won 3 in 7 tries including the G3 Florida Oaks at Tampa, which apparently had a much better quality of racing this year than most of us usually give them credit for. Even Renda is tempting for 2nd choice, but S O Madrid is an average journeyman jockey in S. Fla and Juan Arias is an average trainer. Still, its the horse that runs the race and if the good Renda shows up today, I would not be shocked.
Here are the odds:
#8 Don't Forget Gil
Fair Odds 8-5
Bet at 5/2 or better
#7 Casanova Move
Fair Odds 3-1
Bet at 9-2 or better
#9 Renda
Fair odds 6-1
Bet at 9-1 or better.
For the Preakness you've pretty much heard it all already and I don't have much to add except that I really like Big Drama coming off the rail with the blinkers off. I saw the early betting odds on TVG and it looks like you can play virtually any horse you like and get a decent price. Even Rachel Alexandra is still at 8-5, so if you like her go for it. I like Pioneerof The Nile. I like the pp and think of the contenders I like he got the best of that draw excepting Big Drama. Musket Man has proven to me he belongs in this mix. I haven't given up on Friesan Fire. If FF can avoid getting mugged this time, he'll run much better. Those are my 4 choices and I'm likely to play the longest odds of the 4 boxed with the other 3 in the exacta. If I decide to go 3 deep with a trifecta, I'll throw Take The Points and Papa Clem into the mix. If I get beat by Rachel Alexandra or Mine that Bird, so be it.
That all being said I think I am going to stay with Don't Forget Gil and make Renda the 3rd choice and keep Casanova Move as the 2nd choice. The reasoning is simple. Casanova Move is always sniffing around the money, but she hasn't won since she broke her maiden. Don't Forget Gil has won 3 in 7 tries including the G3 Florida Oaks at Tampa, which apparently had a much better quality of racing this year than most of us usually give them credit for. Even Renda is tempting for 2nd choice, but S O Madrid is an average journeyman jockey in S. Fla and Juan Arias is an average trainer. Still, its the horse that runs the race and if the good Renda shows up today, I would not be shocked.
Here are the odds:
#8 Don't Forget Gil
Fair Odds 8-5
Bet at 5/2 or better
#7 Casanova Move
Fair Odds 3-1
Bet at 9-2 or better
#9 Renda
Fair odds 6-1
Bet at 9-1 or better.
For the Preakness you've pretty much heard it all already and I don't have much to add except that I really like Big Drama coming off the rail with the blinkers off. I saw the early betting odds on TVG and it looks like you can play virtually any horse you like and get a decent price. Even Rachel Alexandra is still at 8-5, so if you like her go for it. I like Pioneerof The Nile. I like the pp and think of the contenders I like he got the best of that draw excepting Big Drama. Musket Man has proven to me he belongs in this mix. I haven't given up on Friesan Fire. If FF can avoid getting mugged this time, he'll run much better. Those are my 4 choices and I'm likely to play the longest odds of the 4 boxed with the other 3 in the exacta. If I decide to go 3 deep with a trifecta, I'll throw Take The Points and Papa Clem into the mix. If I get beat by Rachel Alexandra or Mine that Bird, so be it.
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Rachel Romps, Weasel Chomps
Even at 1.5 to 5 the Weasel couldn't resist the allure of that equine siren, Rachel Alexandra. My $20.00 wager netted $6.00. I couldn't help myself. It's like going to the laudromat and finding $6.00 wadded up in the drier. How can you just leave it there?
Now I still have a live Oaks/Derby Double ticket with 6 Derby contenders: Hold Me Back, Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, Chocolate Candy, I Want Revenge, and Pioneerof The Nile. Some of these will pay a reasonable amount considering the heavy favortism of Rachel Alexandra and all will at least pay for the total wager, so I'm feeling pretty good about that. Kudos to Greg Calabrese for finding out the will pays http://gregcalabrese.blogspot.com/2009/05/oaksderby-will-pays.html.
Although, I still reserve the right to change my mind. Right now, Freisan Fire is my huckleberry to win the roses. Pioneerof The Nile is my #2, but if the track is off, I may change my mind on that one. Regal Ransom is #3 and I Want Revenge is #4.
Having a live Double ticket gives me the luxury of spreading a few $2 win bets on some of the longer prices that may have a chance, so on that basis, I can have at least half the field covered.
Now for a special treat, I received the following E-Mail from Mark Cramer CX Report. Since there is no warning not to republish this information and I'm no longer a subscriber to his report, I feel no guilt about publishing this for the world to see. Bear in mind, I have nothing but great respect for Mr. Cramer. His books have opened my eyes to the possibities available in handicapping horses and have much enhanced my enjoyment of the sport. However, I don't feel he really has his heart into the CX Report and with its sporadic publishing schedule I didn't feel like it was worth the subscription price and didn't renew for another year. But they still send me E-Mails and this time I actually got content due to their server being down. Mark's analysis of major races is like no one elses. So here it is for you.
is being sent via email as our blog was not working -- also some thoughts from Nick Kling belowDerby 2009 Final Post but .As always, I do a final post but reserve the right to leave somethingfor Saturday morning in case there is any new development, somethingthat happened in the BC when I posted a late discovery on Desert Codeon Saturday morning.I see my top three Derby horses as evenly ranked but for entirelydifferent reasons. Obligated to provide a ranking, I resort to thepotential value.Top ranked: DESERT PARTY. In addition to what I've said in previousposts, I can add two things. We can note that DP threw in a clunker inthe Hopeful, behind Vineyard Haven. DP has defeated Vineyard Haventwice, one prior to the Hopeful and then in Dubai, by more than 10lengths. This is an indicator of a developing horse. Second, DP'sstable is 3 for 4 with Dominguez aboard. And of course, DP's pedigreeand the fact that he's won on the mud, in case the rain issignificant.Second. FRIESAN FIRE. We can be concerned about the fact that FF's bigimprove was on a sloppy track. That track had been sealed and there isa good chance that, with a 70% chance of rains for both Friday andSaturday, Churchill will seal the track. Larry Jones has twicefinished second with high-odds horses. FF could be another second forLJ.Third. I WANT REVENGE. I looked again at Talamo's description of theWood. He said that IWR did not even run until the last eighth. If forsome reason there is not much odds differential between FF and IWR, Iwould reverse this order of preference.POSSIBLE STEALER: I had mentioned that REGAL RANSOM took advantage ofa track bias in Dubai, but if Churchill is sealed, he may get anearly-speed bias once again. Not much speed in this field. Join theDance has enjoyed slow fractions in his two front-running route racesand gotten beaten both times. RR's only bad race was on syntheticsurface.FIFTY-TO-ONE TRIFECTA INCLUSION: SUMMER BIRD's only knock is lack ofexperience, but luck at those increasing speed figures! He has TripleCrown pedigree. He was on the way to passing Papa Clem, a horse whosepicture has been taken with the Derby favorites.I don't know what to say about DUNKIRK. On pure ability he shouldcontend for this race. But the trainer is snakebit in the Derby,Dunkirk did not race as a two year old, and he must be frail to haveonly raced three times so far. If he wins, we can look back and seereasons why, but if he does and I don't have him, I will sleep wellanyway.PIONEER OF THE NILE is the other horse I am leaving out. I continue tofeel that the SA Derby should be demoted to Grade 2. He has not beenon dirt and his dirt works beg interpretation. I wish I did not haveto make judgments about this extra surface factor. I wish they wouldjust run 'em on good old dirt. The SA synthetic horses can't evendefeat invading turf shippers on their own "soil". Again, if Baffertwins this one, I will still sleep well.mcNick Kling is a fine handicapper, one of the best in the nation. Sincehe's not available at the usual sources, I felt it would beinteresting for you to read his arguments. Having to handicap thetrack condition while handicapping the race has never been easy.One last note, repeated from other Stakes Weekends. This is not a toutservice. I try to provide information, or at least extract it, in asobjective a way as possible. Many C&X readers are fine handicappers.You don't need a guru and the fun of this game is making your ownchoice, using the information that is available. My job is simply todig for info that you may not have seen, info you can add to your ownanalysis if you deem it worthy.Enjoy this great day of the year and be confident in your own wisdom.Mark TROY RECORD MAY 2, 2009 A FIRE IN KENTUCKY Let's get right to the point. I think FRIESAN FIRE is going to win the Kentucky Derby, and Iwon't be surprised if he wins big. Here are several reasons why. 1) PACE: As it said here yesterday, the loss of three qualityspeed horses to injury has dramatically changed the 135th Derby.Where once the pace could have easily been fast, setting up closerslike Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile, it is now likely to be moderate. The most likely race set-up is for impossible longshot Join Inthe Dance to get the lead. Closest to him will be Regal Ransom.Friesan Fire should be positioned third or fourth in the run down thebackstretch. He will not be far off the leader, unless Join In theDance is launched from the gate by jockey Chris Decarlo, settingsprinter's fractions. Even if that materializes, Friesan Fire will have a hugetactical edge over the closers. Jerry Bailey once said the pace of arace is not determined by the frontrunner. Rather, said Bailey, whatthe second horse does is more important. Regal Ransom's jockey AlanGarcia is not likely to fall into the trap of chasing Join In theDance, a horse almost certain to stop like he has a flat tire. If I am correct, Regal Ransom and Friesan Fire will settle intoa comfortable gait, waiting to make their move. 2) WEATHER/TRACK CONDITION: The forecast for Louisville,Kentucky, site of Churchill Downs and the Derby, is for moisture.There could be possible thunder showers in the morning, followed bysteady, light rain in the afternoon. Churchill's track superintendent, Butch Lehr, is a master atmanaging the dirt surface. Nine times out of ten he can transformswamp into fast going by Derby post time. However, if the forecast iscorrect, he may have to seal the track -- push it into a flat, firmsurface so rain runs off. That traditionally favors horses with early speed, and thosewith experience racing over similar conditions. Friesan Fire won theLouisiana Derby on a sloppy, sealed track, demolishing what wasconsidered an excellent field. Conversely, prime contenders Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile, and IWant Revenge, have never seen that type of surface. The latter pairhave galloped over wet going at Churchill in recent days, but that isnot the same as catching gobs of mud in your face, or being asked togive maximum effort on unfamiliar footing. Mid-level prospect Desert Party won a stake at Saratoga oversealed mud, while Papa Clem finished a distant second to Friesan Firein the Louisiana Derby. If the track is actually wet at Derby posttime, they could prove the primary threats. 3) PATTERNS: Friesan Fire comes into the race in a manner verysimilar to Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Like Friesan Fire, both weretrained by Larry Jones. Both finished second, running well enough towin. Friesan Fire reprised Hard Spun's blistering pre-Derby workout,going five furlongs in 57 and change. Eight Belles trained fast aswell. Like Friesan Fire, she had not raced farther than one andone-sixteenth miles before the Derby. 4) SYNTHETIC TRACKS: Six of the Derby entrants have never won arace on dirt. Most of them have either never raced on dirt, or shownno ability over it. That includes prime contender Pioneerof the Nile,as well as mid-level prospects Chocolate Candy and Hold Me Back. Is there a chance that one or more of those colts will likeChurchill dirt? Of course. Is it wise to risk a wager on an animaltrying something it has never done? Only if the odds are right. Pioneerof the Nile is 4-1 on the morning line. Accepting thoseodds on an unknown commodity is a license to lose. At the minimum,demand twice the price. Hold Me Back (15-1), Chocolate Candy (20-1), and Mr. Hot Stuff(30-1), can be considered if their odds do not drop. It would bepreferable to hold out for more. 5) OTHER QUESTIONS: If racing legends like Secretariat, SeattleSlew, and Spectacular Bid can lose, any horse can lose. What is themost likely scenario which could lead to a Friesan Fire loss, otherthan random bad luck? If I'm wrong about the pace, or if Gabriel Saez prematurelysends Friesan Fire after the leaders, he could lose. A dry trackmight be less speed-favoring than a wet one. Both of thoseeventualities would help stalker/closers. The most likely winner other than Friesan Fire is DUNKIRK. I was prepared to like this horse, love him even. Dunkirk'sFebruary 19 allowance victory at Gulfstream was eye-catching. Horsesdon't win at Gulfstream Park the way he did that day. Where some saw Dunkirk's loss to Quality Road as a sign thelatter was superior, I saw a talented runner-up defeated bycircumstances -- a slow pace and speed-biased track. And don'tunderestimate how good Quality Road was that day. If he was healthyand in this race, Quality Road might have been my top choice. I don't believe Dunkirk's lack of seasoning will hurt him. Therules for winning the Kentucky Derby have changed, and he may be themost talented horse in the race. I WANT REVENGE has run well enough to win the Derby, but onlyif Friesan Fire and Dunkirk fail to improve. The likelihood is bothwill today. It is almost a certainty one will. Call me a superstitious fool, but I can't shake the notion theracing spirits will anoint a horse other than I Want Revenge. Thereis bad karma surrounding trainer Jeff Mullins. A Mullins win would beakin to the Black Sox having gotten away unpunished after the 1919World Series. Kentucky Derby Selections: 1) Friesan Fire, 2) Dunkirk, 3) IWant Revenge, 4) Desert Party.
Good luck and enjoy the racing today.
Now I still have a live Oaks/Derby Double ticket with 6 Derby contenders: Hold Me Back, Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, Chocolate Candy, I Want Revenge, and Pioneerof The Nile. Some of these will pay a reasonable amount considering the heavy favortism of Rachel Alexandra and all will at least pay for the total wager, so I'm feeling pretty good about that. Kudos to Greg Calabrese for finding out the will pays http://gregcalabrese.blogspot.com/2009/05/oaksderby-will-pays.html.
Although, I still reserve the right to change my mind. Right now, Freisan Fire is my huckleberry to win the roses. Pioneerof The Nile is my #2, but if the track is off, I may change my mind on that one. Regal Ransom is #3 and I Want Revenge is #4.
Having a live Double ticket gives me the luxury of spreading a few $2 win bets on some of the longer prices that may have a chance, so on that basis, I can have at least half the field covered.
Now for a special treat, I received the following E-Mail from Mark Cramer CX Report. Since there is no warning not to republish this information and I'm no longer a subscriber to his report, I feel no guilt about publishing this for the world to see. Bear in mind, I have nothing but great respect for Mr. Cramer. His books have opened my eyes to the possibities available in handicapping horses and have much enhanced my enjoyment of the sport. However, I don't feel he really has his heart into the CX Report and with its sporadic publishing schedule I didn't feel like it was worth the subscription price and didn't renew for another year. But they still send me E-Mails and this time I actually got content due to their server being down. Mark's analysis of major races is like no one elses. So here it is for you.
is being sent via email as our blog was not working -- also some thoughts from Nick Kling belowDerby 2009 Final Post but .As always, I do a final post but reserve the right to leave somethingfor Saturday morning in case there is any new development, somethingthat happened in the BC when I posted a late discovery on Desert Codeon Saturday morning.I see my top three Derby horses as evenly ranked but for entirelydifferent reasons. Obligated to provide a ranking, I resort to thepotential value.Top ranked: DESERT PARTY. In addition to what I've said in previousposts, I can add two things. We can note that DP threw in a clunker inthe Hopeful, behind Vineyard Haven. DP has defeated Vineyard Haventwice, one prior to the Hopeful and then in Dubai, by more than 10lengths. This is an indicator of a developing horse. Second, DP'sstable is 3 for 4 with Dominguez aboard. And of course, DP's pedigreeand the fact that he's won on the mud, in case the rain issignificant.Second. FRIESAN FIRE. We can be concerned about the fact that FF's bigimprove was on a sloppy track. That track had been sealed and there isa good chance that, with a 70% chance of rains for both Friday andSaturday, Churchill will seal the track. Larry Jones has twicefinished second with high-odds horses. FF could be another second forLJ.Third. I WANT REVENGE. I looked again at Talamo's description of theWood. He said that IWR did not even run until the last eighth. If forsome reason there is not much odds differential between FF and IWR, Iwould reverse this order of preference.POSSIBLE STEALER: I had mentioned that REGAL RANSOM took advantage ofa track bias in Dubai, but if Churchill is sealed, he may get anearly-speed bias once again. Not much speed in this field. Join theDance has enjoyed slow fractions in his two front-running route racesand gotten beaten both times. RR's only bad race was on syntheticsurface.FIFTY-TO-ONE TRIFECTA INCLUSION: SUMMER BIRD's only knock is lack ofexperience, but luck at those increasing speed figures! He has TripleCrown pedigree. He was on the way to passing Papa Clem, a horse whosepicture has been taken with the Derby favorites.I don't know what to say about DUNKIRK. On pure ability he shouldcontend for this race. But the trainer is snakebit in the Derby,Dunkirk did not race as a two year old, and he must be frail to haveonly raced three times so far. If he wins, we can look back and seereasons why, but if he does and I don't have him, I will sleep wellanyway.PIONEER OF THE NILE is the other horse I am leaving out. I continue tofeel that the SA Derby should be demoted to Grade 2. He has not beenon dirt and his dirt works beg interpretation. I wish I did not haveto make judgments about this extra surface factor. I wish they wouldjust run 'em on good old dirt. The SA synthetic horses can't evendefeat invading turf shippers on their own "soil". Again, if Baffertwins this one, I will still sleep well.mcNick Kling is a fine handicapper, one of the best in the nation. Sincehe's not available at the usual sources, I felt it would beinteresting for you to read his arguments. Having to handicap thetrack condition while handicapping the race has never been easy.One last note, repeated from other Stakes Weekends. This is not a toutservice. I try to provide information, or at least extract it, in asobjective a way as possible. Many C&X readers are fine handicappers.You don't need a guru and the fun of this game is making your ownchoice, using the information that is available. My job is simply todig for info that you may not have seen, info you can add to your ownanalysis if you deem it worthy.Enjoy this great day of the year and be confident in your own wisdom.Mark TROY RECORD MAY 2, 2009 A FIRE IN KENTUCKY Let's get right to the point. I think FRIESAN FIRE is going to win the Kentucky Derby, and Iwon't be surprised if he wins big. Here are several reasons why. 1) PACE: As it said here yesterday, the loss of three qualityspeed horses to injury has dramatically changed the 135th Derby.Where once the pace could have easily been fast, setting up closerslike Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile, it is now likely to be moderate. The most likely race set-up is for impossible longshot Join Inthe Dance to get the lead. Closest to him will be Regal Ransom.Friesan Fire should be positioned third or fourth in the run down thebackstretch. He will not be far off the leader, unless Join In theDance is launched from the gate by jockey Chris Decarlo, settingsprinter's fractions. Even if that materializes, Friesan Fire will have a hugetactical edge over the closers. Jerry Bailey once said the pace of arace is not determined by the frontrunner. Rather, said Bailey, whatthe second horse does is more important. Regal Ransom's jockey AlanGarcia is not likely to fall into the trap of chasing Join In theDance, a horse almost certain to stop like he has a flat tire. If I am correct, Regal Ransom and Friesan Fire will settle intoa comfortable gait, waiting to make their move. 2) WEATHER/TRACK CONDITION: The forecast for Louisville,Kentucky, site of Churchill Downs and the Derby, is for moisture.There could be possible thunder showers in the morning, followed bysteady, light rain in the afternoon. Churchill's track superintendent, Butch Lehr, is a master atmanaging the dirt surface. Nine times out of ten he can transformswamp into fast going by Derby post time. However, if the forecast iscorrect, he may have to seal the track -- push it into a flat, firmsurface so rain runs off. That traditionally favors horses with early speed, and thosewith experience racing over similar conditions. Friesan Fire won theLouisiana Derby on a sloppy, sealed track, demolishing what wasconsidered an excellent field. Conversely, prime contenders Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile, and IWant Revenge, have never seen that type of surface. The latter pairhave galloped over wet going at Churchill in recent days, but that isnot the same as catching gobs of mud in your face, or being asked togive maximum effort on unfamiliar footing. Mid-level prospect Desert Party won a stake at Saratoga oversealed mud, while Papa Clem finished a distant second to Friesan Firein the Louisiana Derby. If the track is actually wet at Derby posttime, they could prove the primary threats. 3) PATTERNS: Friesan Fire comes into the race in a manner verysimilar to Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Like Friesan Fire, both weretrained by Larry Jones. Both finished second, running well enough towin. Friesan Fire reprised Hard Spun's blistering pre-Derby workout,going five furlongs in 57 and change. Eight Belles trained fast aswell. Like Friesan Fire, she had not raced farther than one andone-sixteenth miles before the Derby. 4) SYNTHETIC TRACKS: Six of the Derby entrants have never won arace on dirt. Most of them have either never raced on dirt, or shownno ability over it. That includes prime contender Pioneerof the Nile,as well as mid-level prospects Chocolate Candy and Hold Me Back. Is there a chance that one or more of those colts will likeChurchill dirt? Of course. Is it wise to risk a wager on an animaltrying something it has never done? Only if the odds are right. Pioneerof the Nile is 4-1 on the morning line. Accepting thoseodds on an unknown commodity is a license to lose. At the minimum,demand twice the price. Hold Me Back (15-1), Chocolate Candy (20-1), and Mr. Hot Stuff(30-1), can be considered if their odds do not drop. It would bepreferable to hold out for more. 5) OTHER QUESTIONS: If racing legends like Secretariat, SeattleSlew, and Spectacular Bid can lose, any horse can lose. What is themost likely scenario which could lead to a Friesan Fire loss, otherthan random bad luck? If I'm wrong about the pace, or if Gabriel Saez prematurelysends Friesan Fire after the leaders, he could lose. A dry trackmight be less speed-favoring than a wet one. Both of thoseeventualities would help stalker/closers. The most likely winner other than Friesan Fire is DUNKIRK. I was prepared to like this horse, love him even. Dunkirk'sFebruary 19 allowance victory at Gulfstream was eye-catching. Horsesdon't win at Gulfstream Park the way he did that day. Where some saw Dunkirk's loss to Quality Road as a sign thelatter was superior, I saw a talented runner-up defeated bycircumstances -- a slow pace and speed-biased track. And don'tunderestimate how good Quality Road was that day. If he was healthyand in this race, Quality Road might have been my top choice. I don't believe Dunkirk's lack of seasoning will hurt him. Therules for winning the Kentucky Derby have changed, and he may be themost talented horse in the race. I WANT REVENGE has run well enough to win the Derby, but onlyif Friesan Fire and Dunkirk fail to improve. The likelihood is bothwill today. It is almost a certainty one will. Call me a superstitious fool, but I can't shake the notion theracing spirits will anoint a horse other than I Want Revenge. Thereis bad karma surrounding trainer Jeff Mullins. A Mullins win would beakin to the Black Sox having gotten away unpunished after the 1919World Series. Kentucky Derby Selections: 1) Friesan Fire, 2) Dunkirk, 3) IWant Revenge, 4) Desert Party.
Good luck and enjoy the racing today.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Kentucky Oaks/Derby Talk
Everyone's talking about the goings on in Louisville this weekend, and the Weasel is not about to be left out of the conversation. However, first a brief rant about the goings on at Hollywood Park.
What's up with all of these ridiculously short fields. Jeebus, I feel like I'm playing Golden Gate Fields. Unfortunately, the Weasel smells a rat here. It is no secret that the owner of the property, Bay Meadows Land Company, would like to tear the track down and replace it with some type of shopping, entertainment, and office center. Just what California needs, right?
Now I read that today's card is cancelled due to the inability to fill the races. Not enough horses to go around. Where did they all go?
Now, the evil land developers need to have that property rezoned in order to realize their grandiose plan. I can think of no better way to convince the Inglewood City Council to rezone the property than to make the track become an utter failure.
Being very libertarian and a believer in property rights, BMLC should have the right to develop the property as they see fit so long as they do no harm to their neighbors. That is just a general opinion based on principle. I really don't know enough details about the situation to be more controversial than that. However, don't destroy the racing just to get your way! Run some real races rather than these 4 horse farces you refer to as a card. There, I feel better now.
Now on to more important things. First analysis of the Kentucky Oaks. Rachel Alexandra. Really, do I need to say more? Just look at the form and you'll find only two horses that even should be sniffing the same track she's on. I'm almost surprised she didn't opt for the Derby, but with such easy pickins here, why strain oneself? Save it up for the inevitable Breeder's Cup Match up against Zenyatta.
Rachel Alexander is 3/5 in the ML , and I would play her at that price. Otherwise, I see no way to extract any value from this race.
On the other hand, this year's derby is a handicappers dream race. This is one of the few races I am approaching from a win oriented approach rather than value. The favorite in this race could very well go off at 7/2 or 4/1, so if you like it play it. Simple.
First, I'll begin with the horses with no chance. Breaking from post 20, Flying Private has been close but no "Cigar" since breaking his maiden. He's no Big Brown, I knew Big Brown, I saw Big Brown in the Florida Derby from the 12 post and the Derby from 20. Flying Private is no Big Brown.
We'll skip over the luckless Desert Party for a moment and move to Nowhere To Hide. Sometimes I love the computerized absurdities that pass for comments on the Brisnet PP's. In this case the quote is "May improve with blinkers added today." Rocket powered roller skates won't be enough for Nowhere To Hide, but, I suppose when you pay 250k for yearling, you're going to see him run in the Derby, no matter what.
From the 17th post Summer Bird is another toss out having never beaten winners. Besides, there's not enough room on the trophy for the owners Kalarikkal K and Vilasini Jayaraman. They give horses strange names?
#14 Atomic Rain lost in the Wood Memorial to a horse that got left at the gate and slammed in the stretch. Maybe had Atomic Rain got slammed in the stretch, but more about later. Besides, Joe Bravo never seems to get the best rides outside of New Jersey.
I know #12 General Quarters is the sappy story of the Derby. But he needed the Bluegrass to get in. I didn't get the impression Hold Me Back was all that well intended in the Bluegrass and expect Cinderella to turn into a pumpkin sometime down the back stretch.
Join In the Dance gets Pletcher's 2nd stringer for the ride is yet another horse that has never won a race with other winners in it.
Mine That Bird, I hope Calvin Borel enjoys his trip on Rachel Alexandra because that will be his glory trip for the weekend.
The only horses that run in the Lexington, 2 weeks before the Derby, are those that are in desparate need for graded earnings or those with no Derby plans. Advice is among the former of that group. I don't think you are likely to come back and win the Derby 2 weeks after winning the Lexington.
Mr. Hot Stuff is another with only a maiden win to show for his effort and ran behind Pioneerof The Nile and Chocolate Candy in the Santa Anita Derby.
Finally we have West Side Bernie. Another horse that got beat by a horse left at the gate and slammed in the stretch. How can he win here?
Well, that conveniently eliminates 9 of 20, not bad for a first pass.
Now I have the horses who have a shot, but seem unlikely to me either because I don't think they are quite good enough, or they were unlucky in the post position draw.
Speaking of unlucky in the post position draw, lets go back to post 19 and Desert Party. Its a shame to come from half way around the world only to wind up in the grandstand of the auxilliary gate. Yes its been done before. But two years in a row. I wouldn't bet on it.
#13 I Want Revenge. Ok, I know I'm going to be in trouble for this one, but I have some questions about the strength of a race where the winner is the one that was left at the gate and slammed down the stretch. I do give Joe Talamo all the credit in the world for keeping his wits about him and getting I Want Revenge back in the hunt. But the fact is, had I Want Revenge not been slammed out to the 6 path, there is no way he wins that race. Horses can't move laterally at that pace naturally and it took an unnatural act to get him there. Besides, I just wonder if Joe Talamo is quite ready to step up to the big time. I may be wrong here, but I'll take a stand against I Want Revenge.
#7 Papa Clem is getting better and added a new dimension to his game in the Ark. Derby. But he as lost to Friesan Fire and Pioneerof The Nile both of whom have a little more experience at the stalk and pounce game
#2 Musket Man has done little wrong, but I think the quality of this race may be somewhat above what Musket Man has faced in Tampa and Hawthorne. Maybe I'm just being snobbish, but neither of these places are A list Tracks.
All that being said, I would not be in total shock if any of these horses won the race and I would certainly have them filling out my superfecta ticket if I played superfectas.
Now for the real contenders.
#5 Hold Me Back--Does anyone get the feeling I do that he was using the Bluegrass as a tune up for the big race? In a race with plenty of pace his closing style will be well served if he can get a good trip. Desormeaux knows how to find those good trips.
#10 Regal Ransom beat some of the world's best last out and has the ability to avoid trouble at the calvary charge start and find good position. I think Garcia made the correct choice here.
#11 Chocolate Candy. Jenny Craig's horse finished 2nd a beaten length to Pioneerof The Nile, is a G3 winner and may be able to stay close enough to the pace without having to fight all the traffic the stone closers will face.
#15 Dunkirk didn't have a chance on the Gulfstream turnpike but made a race of it anyway. Should find the extra distance and honest pace to his liking. However, he will have to fight his way through the crowd as he is a slow starter.
That leaves me with Pioneerof The Nile and Friesan Fire. Its too bad The Pamplemousse was unable to make the Santa Anita Derby. I really wanted to see that race. And I'm not worried about the artificial to dirt angle. I really don't understand that logic. I can understand the reverse, that a horse might not take to an artificial surface. But horses evolved and then were developed domestically running on grass and dirt. It seems to me that should be a normal as getting up in the morning. I do worry about the 16th pp for Pioneerof The Nile which is why I am making a well rested, dirt loving, and long stretch drive loving Friesan Fire my number one choice. I'll be playing FF to win and keying him and Pioneerof The Nile in exactas with the other real contenders.
Oh, and if the prices justify it, they probably won't, I'll be looking to single Rachel Alexandra with any and all of my contenders in the Oaks/Derby double.
That's all for now folks.
What's up with all of these ridiculously short fields. Jeebus, I feel like I'm playing Golden Gate Fields. Unfortunately, the Weasel smells a rat here. It is no secret that the owner of the property, Bay Meadows Land Company, would like to tear the track down and replace it with some type of shopping, entertainment, and office center. Just what California needs, right?
Now I read that today's card is cancelled due to the inability to fill the races. Not enough horses to go around. Where did they all go?
Now, the evil land developers need to have that property rezoned in order to realize their grandiose plan. I can think of no better way to convince the Inglewood City Council to rezone the property than to make the track become an utter failure.
Being very libertarian and a believer in property rights, BMLC should have the right to develop the property as they see fit so long as they do no harm to their neighbors. That is just a general opinion based on principle. I really don't know enough details about the situation to be more controversial than that. However, don't destroy the racing just to get your way! Run some real races rather than these 4 horse farces you refer to as a card. There, I feel better now.
Now on to more important things. First analysis of the Kentucky Oaks. Rachel Alexandra. Really, do I need to say more? Just look at the form and you'll find only two horses that even should be sniffing the same track she's on. I'm almost surprised she didn't opt for the Derby, but with such easy pickins here, why strain oneself? Save it up for the inevitable Breeder's Cup Match up against Zenyatta.
Rachel Alexander is 3/5 in the ML , and I would play her at that price. Otherwise, I see no way to extract any value from this race.
On the other hand, this year's derby is a handicappers dream race. This is one of the few races I am approaching from a win oriented approach rather than value. The favorite in this race could very well go off at 7/2 or 4/1, so if you like it play it. Simple.
First, I'll begin with the horses with no chance. Breaking from post 20, Flying Private has been close but no "Cigar" since breaking his maiden. He's no Big Brown, I knew Big Brown, I saw Big Brown in the Florida Derby from the 12 post and the Derby from 20. Flying Private is no Big Brown.
We'll skip over the luckless Desert Party for a moment and move to Nowhere To Hide. Sometimes I love the computerized absurdities that pass for comments on the Brisnet PP's. In this case the quote is "May improve with blinkers added today." Rocket powered roller skates won't be enough for Nowhere To Hide, but, I suppose when you pay 250k for yearling, you're going to see him run in the Derby, no matter what.
From the 17th post Summer Bird is another toss out having never beaten winners. Besides, there's not enough room on the trophy for the owners Kalarikkal K and Vilasini Jayaraman. They give horses strange names?
#14 Atomic Rain lost in the Wood Memorial to a horse that got left at the gate and slammed in the stretch. Maybe had Atomic Rain got slammed in the stretch, but more about later. Besides, Joe Bravo never seems to get the best rides outside of New Jersey.
I know #12 General Quarters is the sappy story of the Derby. But he needed the Bluegrass to get in. I didn't get the impression Hold Me Back was all that well intended in the Bluegrass and expect Cinderella to turn into a pumpkin sometime down the back stretch.
Join In the Dance gets Pletcher's 2nd stringer for the ride is yet another horse that has never won a race with other winners in it.
Mine That Bird, I hope Calvin Borel enjoys his trip on Rachel Alexandra because that will be his glory trip for the weekend.
The only horses that run in the Lexington, 2 weeks before the Derby, are those that are in desparate need for graded earnings or those with no Derby plans. Advice is among the former of that group. I don't think you are likely to come back and win the Derby 2 weeks after winning the Lexington.
Mr. Hot Stuff is another with only a maiden win to show for his effort and ran behind Pioneerof The Nile and Chocolate Candy in the Santa Anita Derby.
Finally we have West Side Bernie. Another horse that got beat by a horse left at the gate and slammed in the stretch. How can he win here?
Well, that conveniently eliminates 9 of 20, not bad for a first pass.
Now I have the horses who have a shot, but seem unlikely to me either because I don't think they are quite good enough, or they were unlucky in the post position draw.
Speaking of unlucky in the post position draw, lets go back to post 19 and Desert Party. Its a shame to come from half way around the world only to wind up in the grandstand of the auxilliary gate. Yes its been done before. But two years in a row. I wouldn't bet on it.
#13 I Want Revenge. Ok, I know I'm going to be in trouble for this one, but I have some questions about the strength of a race where the winner is the one that was left at the gate and slammed down the stretch. I do give Joe Talamo all the credit in the world for keeping his wits about him and getting I Want Revenge back in the hunt. But the fact is, had I Want Revenge not been slammed out to the 6 path, there is no way he wins that race. Horses can't move laterally at that pace naturally and it took an unnatural act to get him there. Besides, I just wonder if Joe Talamo is quite ready to step up to the big time. I may be wrong here, but I'll take a stand against I Want Revenge.
#7 Papa Clem is getting better and added a new dimension to his game in the Ark. Derby. But he as lost to Friesan Fire and Pioneerof The Nile both of whom have a little more experience at the stalk and pounce game
#2 Musket Man has done little wrong, but I think the quality of this race may be somewhat above what Musket Man has faced in Tampa and Hawthorne. Maybe I'm just being snobbish, but neither of these places are A list Tracks.
All that being said, I would not be in total shock if any of these horses won the race and I would certainly have them filling out my superfecta ticket if I played superfectas.
Now for the real contenders.
#5 Hold Me Back--Does anyone get the feeling I do that he was using the Bluegrass as a tune up for the big race? In a race with plenty of pace his closing style will be well served if he can get a good trip. Desormeaux knows how to find those good trips.
#10 Regal Ransom beat some of the world's best last out and has the ability to avoid trouble at the calvary charge start and find good position. I think Garcia made the correct choice here.
#11 Chocolate Candy. Jenny Craig's horse finished 2nd a beaten length to Pioneerof The Nile, is a G3 winner and may be able to stay close enough to the pace without having to fight all the traffic the stone closers will face.
#15 Dunkirk didn't have a chance on the Gulfstream turnpike but made a race of it anyway. Should find the extra distance and honest pace to his liking. However, he will have to fight his way through the crowd as he is a slow starter.
That leaves me with Pioneerof The Nile and Friesan Fire. Its too bad The Pamplemousse was unable to make the Santa Anita Derby. I really wanted to see that race. And I'm not worried about the artificial to dirt angle. I really don't understand that logic. I can understand the reverse, that a horse might not take to an artificial surface. But horses evolved and then were developed domestically running on grass and dirt. It seems to me that should be a normal as getting up in the morning. I do worry about the 16th pp for Pioneerof The Nile which is why I am making a well rested, dirt loving, and long stretch drive loving Friesan Fire my number one choice. I'll be playing FF to win and keying him and Pioneerof The Nile in exactas with the other real contenders.
Oh, and if the prices justify it, they probably won't, I'll be looking to single Rachel Alexandra with any and all of my contenders in the Oaks/Derby double.
That's all for now folks.
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Public Handicapper Picks
Not much time as I have holiday duties to attend to.
Just enough to say that yours truly was humbled yesterday. Not even my good ol' standby, The Fairgrounds could save me yesterday. That being said, use these selections at your own risk. Remember the first column are what I consider to be fair odds and the second is suggested wager odds.
First the Fairgrounds Races the Woodchopper Stakes and the Sugarbowl Stakes.
#6 My Boy Charlie
3-1
9-2
#8 Macho Again
7-2
5-1
#2 Jimmy Simms
4-1
6-1
#1 Evade
6-1
9-1
#6 Euro invader is a group 1 winner in France and is one for one on the FG turf and appears to be peaking at the right time here. #8 is the North American class of this race, but has never run in anger over the sod; however workout line shows some efforts at Saratoga in Aug so can't be ignored. #2 is an improving 3yo who just missed in a G3 effort last out. The slightly shorter distance may make the difference. #1 any time Leparoux is on the grass his mount deserves respect and the horse does seem to be getting better, but this will be his first outing against some really strong competitors take only at long odds.
#4 Beer Pong
3-1
9-2
#8 Screen Your Friend
7-2
5-1
#7 Big Push
9-2
7-1
#9 Ask Joe
5-1
8-1
#4 Has preferred PP with Hi% Rider and Trainer and gets slight nod in a highly contentious race. #8 G3 winner back in July should move forward of last effort. #7 Held lead all the way to the end in Restricted Fl Bred race at Calder shortens up a furlong here #9 Has not run a bad race in 3 outings and may be as good as any here.
The Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate Fields
#3 Cut The Check
3-1
9-2
#4 Adriatic Moon
7-2
5-1
#5 Merus Miami
9-2
7-1
#7 Run It
5-1
8-1
#3 Speedster strectching out is classic play gets the first choice in another contentious race. #4 Gets leading rider R Baze, so you can probably count on this one being severely underlaid, but just in case. #5 I like the way this one came from off the pace in debut, unusual for a 2 yo, and the ability to be rated may be useful again. Also eligible to improve speed in 2nd effort. #7 2 time winner of Alw starter races could be a tough customer.
And finally the Cash Call Futurity from Hollywood
#11 Mr. Rod
3-1
9-2
#5 Pioneerof the Nile
7-2
5-1
#10 Bittel Road
9-2
7-1
#4 Axel Foley
6-1
9-1
#11 has the speed on a speed favoring track and is going turf to fake dirt to boot. #5 comes off a decent effort at the Breeder's cup and should be charging late. #10 Just missed to the top choice last out and would not be a shocker. #4 probably would be a minor shocker, but the British shipper does get first lasix and will likely be over looked by the crowd. Worth a flyer at a big price.
That's it for today. Now out to fight the holiday mob. Hopefully I'll make it back in time to check out my luck on TVG.
Results,
Posted after ninth race at FG: So far bad day for PH standings but good day for bankroll.
No play in the 8th race where the 3rd pick Jimmy Simms managed to avoid the chaos coming down the stretch and prevail.
I knew the 9th was wide open, my favorite, Beer Pong, was a scratch, so the chosen winner, by default was Screen Your Friend. The 7 horse, Big Push was overbet but both Screen Your Friend and my now 3rd choice Ask Joe went off at double figure odds. I split the bet between them. Something you can profitably do according to Steve Fierro with high odds contenders. Screen Your Friend was no where to be found. Ask Joe overcame a very game Big Push and Valid Stripes to prevail by a nose paying $24.80. I hope you had it.
The Cash Call futurity was won by Pioneerof the Nile who became my default choice when Mr. Rob was scratched. Pioneerof the Nile showed a lot of heart in holding off I Want Revenge down the stretch to give me a winner in the PH contest. However, my huckleberry for the dough in this race was Bittel Road. Bittel Road looked like he might make a move around the 3/4 pole but then flattened out and was never a real factor.
The Gold Rush Futurity at Golden Gate was another terrific race. The PH choice Cut the Check tracked the pace for most of the race but lacked energy to close the deal in the stretch. My money wound up on Adriatic Moon who was looking good for a while in the stretch, but Merus Miami took over convincingly at the end to win by a length. And you thought I just had him as a contender as a hunch bet because of the name.
So in the end, one chalky win out of 4 picks for the PH contest and one 11-1 win bet out of 3 for real money. I'll take the 11-1 win bet over the former any day.
Just enough to say that yours truly was humbled yesterday. Not even my good ol' standby, The Fairgrounds could save me yesterday. That being said, use these selections at your own risk. Remember the first column are what I consider to be fair odds and the second is suggested wager odds.
First the Fairgrounds Races the Woodchopper Stakes and the Sugarbowl Stakes.
#6 My Boy Charlie
3-1
9-2
#8 Macho Again
7-2
5-1
#2 Jimmy Simms
4-1
6-1
#1 Evade
6-1
9-1
#6 Euro invader is a group 1 winner in France and is one for one on the FG turf and appears to be peaking at the right time here. #8 is the North American class of this race, but has never run in anger over the sod; however workout line shows some efforts at Saratoga in Aug so can't be ignored. #2 is an improving 3yo who just missed in a G3 effort last out. The slightly shorter distance may make the difference. #1 any time Leparoux is on the grass his mount deserves respect and the horse does seem to be getting better, but this will be his first outing against some really strong competitors take only at long odds.
#4 Beer Pong
3-1
9-2
#8 Screen Your Friend
7-2
5-1
#7 Big Push
9-2
7-1
#9 Ask Joe
5-1
8-1
#4 Has preferred PP with Hi% Rider and Trainer and gets slight nod in a highly contentious race. #8 G3 winner back in July should move forward of last effort. #7 Held lead all the way to the end in Restricted Fl Bred race at Calder shortens up a furlong here #9 Has not run a bad race in 3 outings and may be as good as any here.
The Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate Fields
#3 Cut The Check
3-1
9-2
#4 Adriatic Moon
7-2
5-1
#5 Merus Miami
9-2
7-1
#7 Run It
5-1
8-1
#3 Speedster strectching out is classic play gets the first choice in another contentious race. #4 Gets leading rider R Baze, so you can probably count on this one being severely underlaid, but just in case. #5 I like the way this one came from off the pace in debut, unusual for a 2 yo, and the ability to be rated may be useful again. Also eligible to improve speed in 2nd effort. #7 2 time winner of Alw starter races could be a tough customer.
And finally the Cash Call Futurity from Hollywood
#11 Mr. Rod
3-1
9-2
#5 Pioneerof the Nile
7-2
5-1
#10 Bittel Road
9-2
7-1
#4 Axel Foley
6-1
9-1
#11 has the speed on a speed favoring track and is going turf to fake dirt to boot. #5 comes off a decent effort at the Breeder's cup and should be charging late. #10 Just missed to the top choice last out and would not be a shocker. #4 probably would be a minor shocker, but the British shipper does get first lasix and will likely be over looked by the crowd. Worth a flyer at a big price.
That's it for today. Now out to fight the holiday mob. Hopefully I'll make it back in time to check out my luck on TVG.
Results,
Posted after ninth race at FG: So far bad day for PH standings but good day for bankroll.
No play in the 8th race where the 3rd pick Jimmy Simms managed to avoid the chaos coming down the stretch and prevail.
I knew the 9th was wide open, my favorite, Beer Pong, was a scratch, so the chosen winner, by default was Screen Your Friend. The 7 horse, Big Push was overbet but both Screen Your Friend and my now 3rd choice Ask Joe went off at double figure odds. I split the bet between them. Something you can profitably do according to Steve Fierro with high odds contenders. Screen Your Friend was no where to be found. Ask Joe overcame a very game Big Push and Valid Stripes to prevail by a nose paying $24.80. I hope you had it.
The Cash Call futurity was won by Pioneerof the Nile who became my default choice when Mr. Rob was scratched. Pioneerof the Nile showed a lot of heart in holding off I Want Revenge down the stretch to give me a winner in the PH contest. However, my huckleberry for the dough in this race was Bittel Road. Bittel Road looked like he might make a move around the 3/4 pole but then flattened out and was never a real factor.
The Gold Rush Futurity at Golden Gate was another terrific race. The PH choice Cut the Check tracked the pace for most of the race but lacked energy to close the deal in the stretch. My money wound up on Adriatic Moon who was looking good for a while in the stretch, but Merus Miami took over convincingly at the end to win by a length. And you thought I just had him as a contender as a hunch bet because of the name.
So in the end, one chalky win out of 4 picks for the PH contest and one 11-1 win bet out of 3 for real money. I'll take the 11-1 win bet over the former any day.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
