Belmont Day!

Back to the races for me. Of course its Belmont Stakes day so there is a lot of excitement being generated. I'll be attending the races at Calder although I will likely run out of steam and come home to watch the big race on television.

Its a strange day at Calder with only one minor stakes race being run on the turf. The problem is, you think its been raining in New York, you've never seen anything like the gully washers we get here in Florida. I'm talking inches per hour. Currently, the sky is clear and cloudless, but we have had nearly non-stop afternoon rain for the last 2 weeks. I am very doubtful that Calder will run on the turf course today. At best they will only run the 11th race on the grass if it rains no more today. This makes handicapping all the races scheduled for turf near impossible because there is no way to know who is going to run on what surface until it is announced. As of this writing, it has not been announced.

The weather for New York is supposed to be perfect today. It will be interesting to see how much water the main track retains and how the surface will run. Yesterday the rail seemed like a conveyor belt and no one was making up any ground on the middle part of the track. The turf course will likely be pretty soggy, but I believe they will run on it as long as there is no more
rain and the jockeys don't protest too much.

Of course, I do have decisions on the races. The notes will be brief if any because I've been very busy this past week. Lucky for me, Public Handicapper made races 8, 9, 10, and 11 there races for the week so I was at least able to kill two birds with one stone as the cliche goes. You will also get two bonus races from Belmont so let's get started.

Race 6 is the True North Hdcp--G2 contested at 6f for 3up


#1 Benny The Bull
2-1
3-1
#6 Fabulous Strike
5-2
4-1
#3 Two Step Salsa
4-1
6-1

Benny The Bull has been off for 10 months. I saw him run his last race here at CRC. I thought I had heard or read that he was being retired to stud shortly after that race due to some kind of minor injury. I guess IEAH decided the stud market was not as strong as they would've liked this year. Please, no cards or letters on this one. Maybe I was mistaken. At any rate, 10 months is a long time off, but I still think BTB is the best sprinter in the country if he remains his old self. The way I see it, the cheap speed in the race, Sixthirteen, will force the stalkers to chase him faster than they would like setting the race up perfectly for Benny's big closing drive. Desert Key will be a factor in that scenario and may overcome it. But despite being right there his last 4 times out, he has not been able to get under the wire first for the big one. Bad case of 2nditis going on here. Two Step Salsa, fresh back from two UAE wins doesn't seem to have that problem and is 3 for 3 at the distance. Looks like an interesting race.

Race 7 Just A Game Stakes--G1 1mile on the grass for F and M 3up


#5 Forever Together
2-1
3-1
#1 Carribean Sunset
9-2
7-1
#4 I Lost My Choo
5-1
8-1
#3 Captain's Lover
6-1
9-1

This race reminded me alot of last weeks McKayMacKellan except with better horses. I think Forever Together is the standout. Flip a coin for the rest of the field. I found Carribean Sunset, Group 3 winner in Ireland, and Captain's Lover, Group 3 winner at Longchamp, to be intruiging because of their success on soft turf which I suspect we will have today. The knock against Captain's Lover will be the 8 month layoff or she would be the 2nd choice.

Race 8 Woody Stephens Stakes--G2 For 3 year olds


1/1A Regal Ranson/Everyday Heroes
3-1
9-2
#8 Hull
7-2
5-1
#2 This Ones For Phil
9-2
7-1
#6 Hello Broadway
6-1
9-1

I like the entry and its one of those rare occassions where I don't really care which or if both horses run, I still like the entry. Regal Ransom is coming off a perfect turnback set-up. One of my favorite angles. Its just too bad that, despite his 8th place finish, he is still likely to see alot of action. Hull is unbeaten in 3 tries including the G3 Derby Trial at Churchill. Tries to move to the next level. This Ones For Phil has made a believer out of me and turnsback to a distance that will be more to his liking. Hello Broadway ran a strange race last out setting impossible early fractions and fading to 4th behind Charitable Man, Imperial Council and Brave Victory. Barclay Tagg played dumb in an interview after the race suggesting that someday maybe they'd be able to get inside that horse's head. Now he's taking the blinkers back off and changing riders to Ramon Dominguez who has won at a 29% clip riding for Tagg over the last 60 days. Hmmmmm.

Race 9 Acorn Stakes--G1 I mile for Fillies 3yo.


#8 Justwhistledixie
5-2
4-1
#7 Dream Play
3-1
7-2
#5 Doremifasollatido
6-1
9-1
#1 Cassanova Move
6-1
9-1

Before scratching from the Ky Oaks, Justwhistledixie was the only horse I thought had the slightest chance of beating Rachel Alexandra. A bullet w/o over the track and an off/on figure pattern suggesting "on" for this race with Leparoux in the irons sounds like a winner to me. Dream Play has run 3 successive good races and can certainly beat the top choice which is why the odds for the fave are so tepid. I just put Doremifasollatido in here because I want to hear the track announcer call her name. Also, she is 2 of 4 over the track and 4 times in the money here. A G2 stakes winner coming 2nd off the layoff should be ready. Cassanova Move has finished 2nd or 3rd to the favorite 3 times. Is this the race where she moves forward? I don't know, but take a shot if she's a long price.

Race 10 Woodford Reserve Manhattan Hdcp--G1 1 1/4 mile on turf for 3 up


#1 Court Vision
3-1
9-2
#5 Gio Ponti
7-2
5-1
#12 Cowboy Cal
4-1
6-1
#2 Champs Elysees
5-1
8-1

Court Vision is a G1 winner, has won on the course, and has Ramon Dominguez winning at a 25% clip in Turf races on his back. Gio Ponti is just a horse that likes to win, 6 for 11 lifetime, and is 2 for 3 over the Belmont course. Cowboy Cal is a horse very capable of beating any of these in this competitive field including G1 winner Champs Elysees who gets the always dangerous Julian Lepaoux for the trip. A very competitive race that anyone of the four could win. Box the 0.10 cent superfecta on this one.

Now for the big one

Race 10 Belmont Stakes--G1 for 3 year olds.


#6 Charitable Man
3-1
9-2
#2 Dunkirk
7-2
5-1
#7 Mine That Bird
4-1
6-1
#4 Summer Bird
6-1
9-1

Charitable Man is rested 2 for 2 at Belmont, no worries about how he'll handle Big Sandy, and was pointed to this race after the Bluegrass Stakes. Dunkirk got mobbed in the Derby and had a bent shoe to show for his efforts. His quick turn of foot should put him in good position to be first under the wire. Mine That Bird has made me a believer; however, in the span of 5 weeks this horse has been vanned from New Mexico to New York and run in two difficult races along the way. Woolley says he's looking good and handling the track well, but I have my doubts about how much may be left in the tank. Summer Bird gets a top tier rider change to Kent Desormeaux who, no doubt, will want to perform better this year than he did in last year's race on Big Brown. Summer Bird came straight to Belmont from the Derby and, like Charitable Man and Dunkirk, should be fresh for the race. Just the type of longshot that so often wins this affair.

So there you have it. Good luck to you and safe trips for all the horses and riders.

Preakness Post Mortem

A day late and $23.00 short (the total amount I played on the Preakness) I'm trying to figure out what to do with that little thingy to the left on the top with my picture. At first, I was just using my raw Public Handicapper Picks up. However, since I don't necessarily play my top choice in a race, I decided that wasn't an accurate representation of my results.

Then I started putting up results while playing the home game, but I find that to be very distracting, hectic, and of no use to anyone since by the time I get anything posted the race is already running.

So here's what I'm going to do, and I'm going to stick with it this time. I will put up the results of my plays on any Public Handicapper, HANA Get in the pool race, or other race I feel compelled to chime in with an opinion on commencing with the results from Saturday.

So, speaking of results, Rachel and the Bird made a monkey of the Weasel. Third place was the best any of my contenders could come up with.

My impression immediately following the race and which I carried with me until I looked at the replays today is that Rachel Alexandra was clearly the best in this race, but she seemed to be laboring the last 16th with Mine That Bird closing furiously. I felt, had the race gone another 16th MTB would've caught her.

After watching the replays, I'm more of the mind that Borel was easing her the last portion of the race making MTB's finish seem more impressive than it was (it was still impressive).

Of my contenders, Musket Man pretty much saved ground on the rail mid-pack throughout most of the race and was able to reel in the faltering horse from the first group while making up no ground on the winnner. Pioneerof The Nile track the pacesetters in about 5th position but was 3 wide most of the trip and went at least 6 wide on the final turn. Gomez pretty much stopped trying down the stretch as Pioneer was clearly finished.

However, there is one contender that may have an excuse. Friesan Fire stumbled to his knees at the start and then played bumper cars with a rank Big Drama all the way to the club house turn. In spite of the difficult beginning, FF was able to stalk the pace at least to the point where Borel asked Rachel to go on and leave the boys behind. I feel the need to point this out because in the results it only states that "Friesan Fire bobbled at the break, quickly recovered and reached a striking position, bumped with Pioneerof The Nile entering the first turn, angled out four wide for the run down the backstretch, was put to a ride midway on the final turn then tired through the drive." While FF did recover quickly, it was no mere bobble at the break and there is no mention of the bumping with Big Drama who seemed unable to run in a straight line the first time down the stretch. Just a little something you might want to consider for the next race.

If you just played my PH handicapper picks straight you won 2 of 4, the Preakness not withstanding, which is not too bad. If you paid attention to my odds line, then you passed 1oth race (the Maryland Sprint Hdcp) altogether even though Ravalo was the winner with 4th choice, Silver Edition completing the exacta.

In the Dixie Stakes, 2nd choice Kiss The Kid was the betting choice and seemed to be in good position to make a bid entering the stretch but got pinched off not once, but twice when trying to move forward. Top choice Parading got the good trip and won the race. Such is turf racing.

The winning play for me came in the 8th race. 2nd choice Everyday Heroes at 7-1 brought home the bacon, unfortunately, we couldn't get another contender up to complete the exacta. That would've been sweet. For you tote board watchers out there, and that would include me, I should point out that the odds on Everyday Heroes dropped from 9-1 to 7-1 at 0 minutes to post. Somebody had to drop a bundle to move the odds that much considering the size of the pool. My apologies, I had contender Yano as number 8 when he should've been number 9. Remember to check your programs.

The above race along with the day I had at CRC where I was en fuego, made for a very enjoyable day and I didn't even mind getting beat by the best horse in the Preakness. I can't wait for the Belmont.

Pub Handicapper Picks for May 16

Well here they are for those who want a good laugh. I sure whiffed on the Black-Eyed Susan. When Hooh Why was scratched every thing was changed, and I should've just passed the race. Haven't seen anything about a HANA in the pool race this week, so I guess were skipping that one as we did for Derby day.

Well, here goes nothing

Pim R8 Hirsch Jacobs Stakes, G3 for 3 year olds


#1 Taqarub
3-1
7-2
#2 Everyday Heroes
7-2
5-1
#7 Nuclear Wayne
9-2
7-1
#8 Yano
5-1
8-1
Speed, Speed, nothing but speed. Give inside posts advantage over outside, but its really anybody's race

Race 10 Maryland Sprind Hdcp G3 for 3 and up


#8 Ravalo
2-1
3-1
#5 Ah Day
4-1
6-1
#2 Grand Traverse
6-1
9-1
#3 Silver Edition
6-1
9-1
#8 Ravalo is 8 for 16 at the distance with last 10 all against stakes company. #5 Recent stakes winner and 5 of 7 at the distance with lots of backclass. Ignore last race at mile #2 Grand Traverse has been showing good form of late, but beware of high speed figure set over sloppy sealed track in last at Chuchill #3 Winner of the 50k Hot Springs hdcp at Oaklawn could step up with Leparoux

Race 11 Dixie Stakes G2 for 3 and up



#3 Parading
3-1
9-2
#4 Kiss The Kid
7-2
5-1
#1 Proudinsky
4-1
6-1
#7 Wesley
6-1
9-1
#3 Comes into race off a nice G3 win and has had a little more time to recover than #1. #4 has won 3 of his last 4 and rarely misfires. He is well rested and should run well here. #1 Proudinsky just bumped heads 2 weeks ago with arguably the best older turf horse in N.A. (Einstein). He will be a factor if he can come back quickly off that race. #7 Had a nice tune-up opening weekend at CRC, but this field is much better than the one he faced in Florida.

R12 The Preakness G1 3 yo's


P# 12th Race

Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#9 Pioneeror The Nile
3-1
9-2
#3 Musket Man
7-2
5-1
#5 Friesan Fire
4-1
6-1
#1 Big Drama
5-1
8-1

I'm deliberately ignoring, admittedly perhaps to my detriment, the publicity horse Rachel Alexandra and the Cinderella horse Mine That Bird for reasons I've already discussed. I think Big Drama could run a Big Race here although, supposedly, history regarding fresh horses coming into the Preakness would suggest not. Still, he should be a pace factor and make RA run a little harder than maybe she is used to early.

Early Preakness Thoughts

I spent my whole lunch hour today looking at the Preakness Stakes past performances and thinking about how to approach the race. As much as I looked forward to the Derby this is a far more interesting race to me.

The more I thought about this race, the more I came to the conclusion that the proper strategic approach to this is as important as trying to pick the winner. It would be very easy to pick Rachel Alexandra, Mine The Bird, or Pioneerof The Nile, and no one would fault me if I was wrong. Of course, no one would be knocking down my door to congratulate me if I was right either.

I decided that there were definitely going to be two underlaid horses in this race. The 8-5 morning line for Rachel Alexandra seems to generous. If you can get that price play it if you think she will win. She may be the best horse in the race. Yet, as we all know, the best horse doesn't always win the race, and I'm not convinced she is the best horse. More on that later.

Mine The Bird is 6-1 in the morning line. My opinion is that 6-1 is already an underlay for Mine The Bird. Mine The Bird has just run the race of his life, with the trip of his life, with the perfect rider for that trip and beat the best 3yo colts in the country. No doubt, the planets were perfectly aligned for Calvin Borel two weeks ago. Sometimes 3 year olds just "wake up" that way and stay good; sometimes its just a flash in the pan and they return to their old ways. I don't know which is the correct direction for this horse. Who know's, maybe he just had alot of pent up energy from the fabled 3 day trailer trek from New Mexico to Churchill Downs? Do they test for peyote in the Derby?

Now all you Rachel lovers are going to start hating on me, I know, but I see a few reasons why she may be a vulnerable favorite and overbet. First, and this has nothing to do with her ability, she is what Mark Cramer would refer to as the "Publicity Horse" in the race. After all the big to do about the ownership and trainer change, Calvin Borel making the historic choice to leave the Derby winner for her, the conspiracy controversy, and the mere fact that a girl is taking on the boys is enough for all the press coverage she is getting. It doesn't hurt that she just may beat the boys.

However, I have been informed from several sources that horses are creatures of habit. Rachel Alexandra had a trainer and a barn she obviously had a good relationship with. Just like that she is taken away from everything she is familiar with and handed over to different people with different habits and ways of going about the business of horse racing. Steve Asmussen is an excellent trainer, no doubt, but, seriously, how much better can he make the horse than she already is. I see only downside possibilities from this change. Maybe horses don't really mind as long as they are well fed and cared for as I'm sure she is.

Secondly, as impressive as Rachel's win in the Oaks was (you don't mind if I call her Rachel do you?), it was really nothing more than an allowance race for non winners of 2 other than maiden, claiming or starter once Justwhistlndixie dropped out. In fact, once she figured out how the game is played, no one has really challenged her. Assuming Rachel was not in the Oaks, three fourths of the Derby field would've won that race without too much trouble if not as impressively.

Rachel will not find the pickins so easy this time and how she reacts to the higher level of competition will do much to determine the outcome of the race. While the colts having been knocking heads all Winter and Spring, Rachel has had it relatively easy.

Finally, until about 1.5 weeks ago, Rachel was never intended for this or any other race today. Her next race was to be on Belmont day as I recall. Now, I'm not a trainer, but I'd lay odds that if I were planning to race two weeks after the Oaks, I would've approached the races differently than if I had not been planning to run. Will she be ready to fire her best? I won't take low odds on it.

Next time I'll tell who I like and why.

Somebody Pinch Me

Somebody wake me up. I think I just had a bad dream. A 50-1 shot just closed me out of all of my Derby bets! What? It wasn't a Dream!? Arrrrrgh!

Well all the same. Congratulations to Calvin Borel, Mine That Bird, and all his connections. This is what makes this game is simultaneously exhilirating and infuriating.

It's dinner time and my dog needs to poop. See ya next week