So sorry to have been away so long. Could make up alot of excuses and they'd all be true. The simple fact is that the muse had left me. Now I'm feeling more a-mused.
As much as I like to complain about how Gulfstream Park management does everything on the cheap, and they do, I guess I have to give them a little credit for Florida Derby day.
Gulfsteam Park was slammed. They do not give attendance or handle figures, but in speaking with a worker at the track I learned the crowd was estimated to be about 23,000. Betting lines were 10 minutes long. I was told that the park had installed an extral 150 betting machines for the occassion. Again, trying to do it on the cheap. Really, how many people who go to the track once or twice a year for the big days go anywhere near the betting machines?
I prefer the machines, but on days like Fl. Derby day, there's no way. It will always be my luck to wind up behind some 0.10 cent super player entering every possible combo one at a time. Of course, most times that will be my good luck.
To the track's credit they did extend the time between races once they realized the size of the crowd which had showed up on that perfect South Florida day. One last thing I learned from the track worker is that there are plans to build a parking garage and extend the grandstand down the north side of the main building all the way down to the beginning of the stretch. It won't be this year or the next, but maybe in a couple of years, we can once again contemplate the possibility of the Breeder's Cup returning to Florida.
Had the muse had struck me sooner, my once loyal readers would've known my top pick for the race was the 29-1 Pleasant Prince. Yes it is true. Talk about bad beats! I figured the race had alot of early speed in it with most of it to the outside and didn't set up well for the favorite, Rule. I looked to the inside for likely horses to come from off the pace and settled on the Wesley Ward trained Pleasant Prince. Ice Box was certainly a contender as an off the pace contender, but it is well known that the outside posts don't do well at the 9 furlong distance. The 12 hole is nearly impossible except for Big Brown. Unfortunately for me, Ice Box was breaking from the 8th gate.
I have watched that race over and over and am still not convinced I lost. I'm still looking for the photo if anyone can direct me. That is the only way I will be convinced.
I have read that we (TBA that is) are now associating ourselves with Thorofan. This is a move the Weasel definitely is in favor of being a charter member of the Thorofan organization. So far, I can't see how my dues to Thorofan have done anything than help finance cocktail parties for the Saratoga chapter, but hope springs eternal that something good will eventually come out the organization.
The Horseplayer's Association of North America seems to have lost some momentum this year although I do remember they are having a day at Keeneland for members to assemble. If they send me another E-Mail telling me when it is, I'll let you know. That is an organization the Weasel certainly endorses. I hope the founders have not burned out. They tried very hard to make a difference last year. But you know, organizing horse player has got to be alot like herding cats.
That's it for now. Hopefully, I'll get some momentum of my own going and find another 18-1 Bullsbay or 29-1 Pleasant Prince for you to lay some dough on and cheer for.
I'm Off
Showing posts with label HANA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label HANA. Show all posts
Monday, March 29, 2010
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Festival of the Sun
As I write this from my Florida room a mere few minutes from Calder Race Course the skies are sunny with the temperature at 77o. Contrast to Toronto where the temperature is a chilly 34 with Rain/Snow showers forecast.
I actually have the Nearctic and Candian International Races handicapped, but considering the current conditions, I feel that all that work is out the window into the bright Florida sunshine now. Instead, I will bring you the 11th race from Calder, the G3 Spendabuck Hcp and the Senator Ken Maddy Hdcp (G3) from Santa Anita.
As a bonus, to make up for the rainy/snowy Woodbine race, I will give you my stakes picks for the other Calder stakes on this big South Florida Racing day.
Now for race 11 from CRC
With the exception of Lady Shatzi who is making her North American debut from Peru, the horses running in this race are old friends who have frequently shared the same track.
Of this group, #9 Motovato, trained by Marty Wolfson and ridden by Eddie Castro is clearly the class of the field as the winner of 2 of the last 3 stakes he has run at Calder including a 2nd place finish behind the late Finallymadeit in the G3 Memorial Day Hdcp. I do have a race where I will try to beat Wolfson, just not this one.
The 2nd choice #10 Mambo Meister has spent most of the Summer running on grass but has also shown ability on dirt. Therefore, the surface switch should be of no consequence. Mambo Meister is a capable 4 year old who gets leading rider Manoel Cruz in the irons. Manny is definitely better on dirt than grass (a little CRC hint: I nearly always consider Cruz a bet against on turf). Mambo's last 3 have all been graded affairs up at Saratoga and Monmouth so he will definitely be feeling the class relief in this field.
The #4 Dream Maestro is getting little respect from the morning line maker at 12-1 and the DRF analysts not even getting a nod for 3rd position on the selection sheet. However the Maestro has run some good races and always seems to be hanging around in the money at the end. It may be true that Dream Maestro suffers a bit of seconditis with 9 places in 22 tries, but I don't see how you can completely discount this consistent contender. I wouldn't play him at 2-1 but 12-1 could be another story.
Finally the 4th choice is the #1 Imawildandcrazyguy who won on the slop last out. Really, this is more of a nod to the abilities of Eibar Coa who seems to dominate when he runs at Calder rather than the ability of this one time KY Derby entrant. However, Imawildandcrazyguy exhibits a lot of back class with winnings of $626,745 easily out distancing the other contenders in the field. Play only at a large price.
#9 Motovato
#10 Mambo Meister
#4 Dream Maestro
#1 Imawildandcrazyguy
Off to The Oak Tree at Santa Anita and the SKMaddyH at 6.5f.
The top choice #2 Gotta Have Her has been in the money for her last 8 and 9 of her last 10. She is 3 for 3 at this distance and has 4 for 8 winners at Santa Anita including a G2 win in the Palomar Hdcp last out. Just flat out looks like the one to beat to me.
Maybe #4 Reba Is Tops can be the one to do it. She probably needed her last, finishing 2nd in the Daisycutter at Del Mar and should move forward this time out. She will be tough to beat if she does. Joe Talamo gets the call. Joe and Reba have been a potent combo since teaming up 4 races ago with 2 firsts and 2 seconds. I expect more of the same here.
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle (ooh that is going to make the spell checker go nuts) is the 3rd choice. She is the defending champ and is showing no indication in her recent outings of slowing down. Other than she appears to be in top form at the moment, what more is there to say here.
#5 Tuscan Evening rounds out the contender list in this top field as she returns to a distance that is certainly more to her liking. Fagettabout her last effort at 9 furlongs. This race is where she belongs.
Honestly, there is not much to choose from between these 4. If you want my advice I'd play whichever of the 4 has the longest odds and be very happy about my chances of winning
#2 Gotta Have Her
#4 Reba Is Tops
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle
#5 Tuscan Evening
Without comment here are my other Stakes pick for CRC today
Race 6 The Birdonthewire for 2 yo's 5.5 f
#8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
#5 Mr. Green
#7 Peace At Dawn
#3 Simplifying
Although I haven't been able to find it yet, you should be able to view my full analysis of this race at www.casetherace.com.
Race 7 The Florida Stallion My Dear Girl 400k for 2 yo fillies
#4 Winsockie
#6 Sweetlalabye
#1 Joanie's Catch
#5 Tillie The Tigress
Race 8 The Calder Oaks for 3yo fillies 75k
#6 Providanza
#3 Royal Card
#4 Fire Water
Race 9 The Florida Stallion In Reality for 2 yo's 400k
#6 Jackson Bend
#3 Thank U Philippe
#4 Bim Bam
#8 Allez Reef
Race 10 The Calder Derby(G3) for 3yo's 100k
#3 Sal the Barber (My pick 4 single)
#6 Grand Cash
#2 Livingston Street
#9 Pound Foolish
Race 12 The Cassidy for fillies, 2yo's 75k
#2 Sweet Like Sugar
#7 Rosebud's Ridge
#1 Lavender's Spirit
#6 Slavic Princess
Finally, just in case you're interested, my picks for the two races from Woodbine before I became aware of the conditions
Race 8 The Nearctic (G2)
#11 Jungle Wave
#1 Field Commission
#9 Hero's Reward
#4 Karakorum Elektra
Race 10 The Pattison Canadian International (G1)
#4 Just As Well
#7 Juke Box Jury
#3 Quijano
#8 Spice Route
That's it for this week. Enjoy the racing and Good Luck
I actually have the Nearctic and Candian International Races handicapped, but considering the current conditions, I feel that all that work is out the window into the bright Florida sunshine now. Instead, I will bring you the 11th race from Calder, the G3 Spendabuck Hcp and the Senator Ken Maddy Hdcp (G3) from Santa Anita.
As a bonus, to make up for the rainy/snowy Woodbine race, I will give you my stakes picks for the other Calder stakes on this big South Florida Racing day.
Now for race 11 from CRC
With the exception of Lady Shatzi who is making her North American debut from Peru, the horses running in this race are old friends who have frequently shared the same track.
Of this group, #9 Motovato, trained by Marty Wolfson and ridden by Eddie Castro is clearly the class of the field as the winner of 2 of the last 3 stakes he has run at Calder including a 2nd place finish behind the late Finallymadeit in the G3 Memorial Day Hdcp. I do have a race where I will try to beat Wolfson, just not this one.
The 2nd choice #10 Mambo Meister has spent most of the Summer running on grass but has also shown ability on dirt. Therefore, the surface switch should be of no consequence. Mambo Meister is a capable 4 year old who gets leading rider Manoel Cruz in the irons. Manny is definitely better on dirt than grass (a little CRC hint: I nearly always consider Cruz a bet against on turf). Mambo's last 3 have all been graded affairs up at Saratoga and Monmouth so he will definitely be feeling the class relief in this field.
The #4 Dream Maestro is getting little respect from the morning line maker at 12-1 and the DRF analysts not even getting a nod for 3rd position on the selection sheet. However the Maestro has run some good races and always seems to be hanging around in the money at the end. It may be true that Dream Maestro suffers a bit of seconditis with 9 places in 22 tries, but I don't see how you can completely discount this consistent contender. I wouldn't play him at 2-1 but 12-1 could be another story.
Finally the 4th choice is the #1 Imawildandcrazyguy who won on the slop last out. Really, this is more of a nod to the abilities of Eibar Coa who seems to dominate when he runs at Calder rather than the ability of this one time KY Derby entrant. However, Imawildandcrazyguy exhibits a lot of back class with winnings of $626,745 easily out distancing the other contenders in the field. Play only at a large price.
#9 Motovato
#10 Mambo Meister
#4 Dream Maestro
#1 Imawildandcrazyguy
Off to The Oak Tree at Santa Anita and the SKMaddyH at 6.5f.
The top choice #2 Gotta Have Her has been in the money for her last 8 and 9 of her last 10. She is 3 for 3 at this distance and has 4 for 8 winners at Santa Anita including a G2 win in the Palomar Hdcp last out. Just flat out looks like the one to beat to me.
Maybe #4 Reba Is Tops can be the one to do it. She probably needed her last, finishing 2nd in the Daisycutter at Del Mar and should move forward this time out. She will be tough to beat if she does. Joe Talamo gets the call. Joe and Reba have been a potent combo since teaming up 4 races ago with 2 firsts and 2 seconds. I expect more of the same here.
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle (ooh that is going to make the spell checker go nuts) is the 3rd choice. She is the defending champ and is showing no indication in her recent outings of slowing down. Other than she appears to be in top form at the moment, what more is there to say here.
#5 Tuscan Evening rounds out the contender list in this top field as she returns to a distance that is certainly more to her liking. Fagettabout her last effort at 9 furlongs. This race is where she belongs.
Honestly, there is not much to choose from between these 4. If you want my advice I'd play whichever of the 4 has the longest odds and be very happy about my chances of winning
#2 Gotta Have Her
#4 Reba Is Tops
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle
#5 Tuscan Evening
Without comment here are my other Stakes pick for CRC today
Race 6 The Birdonthewire for 2 yo's 5.5 f
#8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
#5 Mr. Green
#7 Peace At Dawn
#3 Simplifying
Although I haven't been able to find it yet, you should be able to view my full analysis of this race at www.casetherace.com.
Race 7 The Florida Stallion My Dear Girl 400k for 2 yo fillies
#4 Winsockie
#6 Sweetlalabye
#1 Joanie's Catch
#5 Tillie The Tigress
Race 8 The Calder Oaks for 3yo fillies 75k
#6 Providanza
#3 Royal Card
#4 Fire Water
Race 9 The Florida Stallion In Reality for 2 yo's 400k
#6 Jackson Bend
#3 Thank U Philippe
#4 Bim Bam
#8 Allez Reef
Race 10 The Calder Derby(G3) for 3yo's 100k
#3 Sal the Barber (My pick 4 single)
#6 Grand Cash
#2 Livingston Street
#9 Pound Foolish
Race 12 The Cassidy for fillies, 2yo's 75k
#2 Sweet Like Sugar
#7 Rosebud's Ridge
#1 Lavender's Spirit
#6 Slavic Princess
Finally, just in case you're interested, my picks for the two races from Woodbine before I became aware of the conditions
Race 8 The Nearctic (G2)
#11 Jungle Wave
#1 Field Commission
#9 Hero's Reward
#4 Karakorum Elektra
Race 10 The Pattison Canadian International (G1)
#4 Just As Well
#7 Juke Box Jury
#3 Quijano
#8 Spice Route
That's it for this week. Enjoy the racing and Good Luck
Friday, July 17, 2009
HANA Goes To Mountaineer
No Public Handicapper picks this week. Taking the daughter to the University of Central Florida for an open house. Don't even know what the races are yet and won't have time to look at them.
However, not to leave you totally lost, I have the HANA race of the week. A $5000.00 claiming event for fillies and mares 3 and up who have never won two races. It is race 2 on your program and post time is 7:25.
My top choice for the race is the 2 horse Wynn For Mary who seems to have found a home and a distance in West Virginny. Since moving up from Tampa, the lightly raced 4 year old has won 2 of 4 and finished in the money the other two tries. In addition, stretching out to a mile seemed to be just what the doctor ordered as Wynn For Mary ran a 79 Brisnet Speed Figure compared to 61 in her previous race. I think she can move forward off of that effort. Of course 5k claimers for older non-winners of two don't exactly possess perfect choices. I generally shy away from low % trainers and jockeys, but this is Mountaineer and I didn't see a Pletcher or Dutrow entry, so I'll chance it if the odds stay at the morning line 4-1 or better.
The 2nd choice would probably be the top except for the 9th post which is statistically more difficult to win from at this distance. The 9 horse, Flaming Victory has shown good recent form, but consistency isn't exactly a forte of cheap claiming horses, and at 6 years of age she isn't likely to show much improvement.
The 3rd and 4th choice are the 4, Cat's Got Class, and the 5,Alibi Baby. Not much to choose from between them. Both have two wins in 21 tries. Cat's Got Class has at least shown the ability to pass some horses where as Alibi Baby has been kind of a Merry-Go-Round horse. Both have at least raced above par for the course at least once in their careers which is more than you can say for most of the other contestants.
Well, whatever you do, good luck and enjoy the race. I'll be back next week with more stakes races to ponder over
However, not to leave you totally lost, I have the HANA race of the week. A $5000.00 claiming event for fillies and mares 3 and up who have never won two races. It is race 2 on your program and post time is 7:25.
My top choice for the race is the 2 horse Wynn For Mary who seems to have found a home and a distance in West Virginny. Since moving up from Tampa, the lightly raced 4 year old has won 2 of 4 and finished in the money the other two tries. In addition, stretching out to a mile seemed to be just what the doctor ordered as Wynn For Mary ran a 79 Brisnet Speed Figure compared to 61 in her previous race. I think she can move forward off of that effort. Of course 5k claimers for older non-winners of two don't exactly possess perfect choices. I generally shy away from low % trainers and jockeys, but this is Mountaineer and I didn't see a Pletcher or Dutrow entry, so I'll chance it if the odds stay at the morning line 4-1 or better.
The 2nd choice would probably be the top except for the 9th post which is statistically more difficult to win from at this distance. The 9 horse, Flaming Victory has shown good recent form, but consistency isn't exactly a forte of cheap claiming horses, and at 6 years of age she isn't likely to show much improvement.
The 3rd and 4th choice are the 4, Cat's Got Class, and the 5,Alibi Baby. Not much to choose from between them. Both have two wins in 21 tries. Cat's Got Class has at least shown the ability to pass some horses where as Alibi Baby has been kind of a Merry-Go-Round horse. Both have at least raced above par for the course at least once in their careers which is more than you can say for most of the other contestants.
Well, whatever you do, good luck and enjoy the race. I'll be back next week with more stakes races to ponder over
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Mid-Term Report
Well, really its a 3/4 term report as 3 of the 4 races are in the books for this week. Some comments on the races so far.
United Nations Hdcp.
What the Hell was the jockey colony thinking in allowing Presious Passion an uncontested 20 length lead within the first quarter of the race! Then along the backstretch, nobody was making up any ground on Presious Passion. Maybe they couldn't ,or maybe they weren't trying yet. At any rate, by the time they did start closing the gap, it was obvious they would not catch him.
As you know, I did not have Presious Passion picked to win; however, this particular scenario is not exactly what I had envisioned. I'm not shocked the horse won. There is no denying Presious Passion is one of the leading grass horses running right now. On the bright side, the German-bred Lauro managed to be second best for some Weasel vindication. And I don't mind getting beat by Elvis Trujillo who is an old Calder favorite and deserves to do well.
Firecracker Hdcp.
In this race we got the winner right, Mr. Sydney. No great feat there. The biggest surprise to me is that he paid 2-1 as I thought he might go a little lower. The Weasel play in this race was Tizdejavu at 9-1. Placed 2nd at the 3/4 pole, it looked as if there was a possibility he could move forward and go on to win, but he flattened out and was not a factor coming home.
Suburban Hdcp.
The Weasel managed to get this one right with the top two finishers albeit in the wrong order. That's OK as the Weasel play in this race was Dry Martini at 10-1. I do hope you got that one. The funny thing was that originally I had made Dry Martini the top choice, but, upon further thought put Asiatic Boy on top. That's what you get for thinking too much.
That leaves todays American Oaks from Hollywood. Beyond Gozzip Girl, I don't have a very good feel for this race. Take that under advisement if you use any of my opinions in your own handicapping decisions.
A word about the Handicapping the Handicapper project. I am approaching the idea in two ways at the moment. The ways have been chosen largely based on convenience. I have been following the betting pool selections for Calder Race Course since I play a lot of races there. One thing I've learned is that you play against the favorite in claiming races at your own peril at Calder as the Collective gets these right at about a 50% clip since I've been paying attention. The Collective is 37% accurate on the top choice in Maiden Claiming events. I think most of us would like to boast of those types of percentages. I know I would.
I don't have enough entries in other racing classifications yet for any meaningful numbers, but will update you as they come available. I am playing the Collective odds on the Maiden Claiming races as those are typically the last races I handicap on any card due to time constraints. Yesterday's card had 3 Maiden Claiming races. One race was a pass with no overlays, the 2nd race I played the 4th choice and lost. I should've played the 3rd choice, but the odds changed on me between laying the bet and the start of the race. I wait as long as I can and try to make the bet with 0 MTP as they're loading if I can. I can't help what happens after that. As it turns out, the 3rd choice won paying a nice 8-1 price. Finally got a winner betting a 2-1 favorite, actually needed 5-2, but again.....
That's a constant problem when one's play is dependent on the odds. It seems like a problem that could be solved by the data providers if they chose to do so. Friday, I bet a horse at 7-1, the minimum I required to bet the horse, at 0 MTP. By the time I got back to my seat, a five second walk, the odds had dropped to 5-1. The odds dropped 2 more ticks to 4-1 after the race had started. Is the tote system really that slow or is there some past posting going on here? Either way, it does make life difficult for a handicapper who's decisions are based odds and not selections.
Ok that's it for today. Don't forget to play the HANA race at Hollywood today (Race 8).
United Nations Hdcp.
What the Hell was the jockey colony thinking in allowing Presious Passion an uncontested 20 length lead within the first quarter of the race! Then along the backstretch, nobody was making up any ground on Presious Passion. Maybe they couldn't ,or maybe they weren't trying yet. At any rate, by the time they did start closing the gap, it was obvious they would not catch him.
As you know, I did not have Presious Passion picked to win; however, this particular scenario is not exactly what I had envisioned. I'm not shocked the horse won. There is no denying Presious Passion is one of the leading grass horses running right now. On the bright side, the German-bred Lauro managed to be second best for some Weasel vindication. And I don't mind getting beat by Elvis Trujillo who is an old Calder favorite and deserves to do well.
Firecracker Hdcp.
In this race we got the winner right, Mr. Sydney. No great feat there. The biggest surprise to me is that he paid 2-1 as I thought he might go a little lower. The Weasel play in this race was Tizdejavu at 9-1. Placed 2nd at the 3/4 pole, it looked as if there was a possibility he could move forward and go on to win, but he flattened out and was not a factor coming home.
Suburban Hdcp.
The Weasel managed to get this one right with the top two finishers albeit in the wrong order. That's OK as the Weasel play in this race was Dry Martini at 10-1. I do hope you got that one. The funny thing was that originally I had made Dry Martini the top choice, but, upon further thought put Asiatic Boy on top. That's what you get for thinking too much.
That leaves todays American Oaks from Hollywood. Beyond Gozzip Girl, I don't have a very good feel for this race. Take that under advisement if you use any of my opinions in your own handicapping decisions.
A word about the Handicapping the Handicapper project. I am approaching the idea in two ways at the moment. The ways have been chosen largely based on convenience. I have been following the betting pool selections for Calder Race Course since I play a lot of races there. One thing I've learned is that you play against the favorite in claiming races at your own peril at Calder as the Collective gets these right at about a 50% clip since I've been paying attention. The Collective is 37% accurate on the top choice in Maiden Claiming events. I think most of us would like to boast of those types of percentages. I know I would.
I don't have enough entries in other racing classifications yet for any meaningful numbers, but will update you as they come available. I am playing the Collective odds on the Maiden Claiming races as those are typically the last races I handicap on any card due to time constraints. Yesterday's card had 3 Maiden Claiming races. One race was a pass with no overlays, the 2nd race I played the 4th choice and lost. I should've played the 3rd choice, but the odds changed on me between laying the bet and the start of the race. I wait as long as I can and try to make the bet with 0 MTP as they're loading if I can. I can't help what happens after that. As it turns out, the 3rd choice won paying a nice 8-1 price. Finally got a winner betting a 2-1 favorite, actually needed 5-2, but again.....
That's a constant problem when one's play is dependent on the odds. It seems like a problem that could be solved by the data providers if they chose to do so. Friday, I bet a horse at 7-1, the minimum I required to bet the horse, at 0 MTP. By the time I got back to my seat, a five second walk, the odds had dropped to 5-1. The odds dropped 2 more ticks to 4-1 after the race had started. Is the tote system really that slow or is there some past posting going on here? Either way, it does make life difficult for a handicapper who's decisions are based odds and not selections.
Ok that's it for today. Don't forget to play the HANA race at Hollywood today (Race 8).
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Public Handicapper and HANA selections for June 27
I'm back. And I have some interesting races to talk about today. If my odds line looks peculiar to you, read the previous article as I am trying something novel and different. If it works out, then maybe I too, your humble Chalk Eating Weasel, can join the pantheon of great handicapping authors.
Now for the races.
Colonial Da Hoss Stakes 50k Inner Turf for 3up
Colonial R9
4:39
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Auction Watch
4-1
6-1
#5 Jungle Fighter
7-2
5-1
#7 Baltimore Bob
7-2
5-1
#10 Frisky Thunder
6-1
9-1
#2 Auction Watch comes off a 3 digit (Brisnet) Opt Claiming win is 2 for 2 at the distance and 5 for 9 on the sod. Running style is suited for the course and Sheldon Russell is familiar with grounds so look for a good trip. #5 Jungle Fighter is 2 for 2 over CNL turf. This horse for the course is coming 2nd off layoff and should be a factor if he can regain his previous form. #7 Baltimore Bob may be the best of the group, but when the going gets tough, he always seems to come up short. #10 Frisky Thunder should be able to set the early pace and if he is allowed to relax may go all the way. The only other Quirin "E" horse is just not as fast. FT could steal the race for a price.
Monmouth Boiling Springs Stakes G3 150k Turf 3yo fillies
Monmouth R9
4:50
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#5 Bluegrass Princess
4-1
6-1
#3 My Magic Moment
7-2
5-1
#2 Platinum Girl
7-2
5-1
#1 Mary's Follies
6-1
9-1
#5 BP finally finds a graded event without Gozzip Girl to run in. The McLaughlin trainee has been ITM last 4 out and should find the winner's circle with Eddie Castro this time. #3 MMM is a stakes winner and may be ready to deny BP that first win on the Turf. Thomas Albertrani is 25% winner with +ROI in Graded events and Elvis Trujillo is no stranger to the winner's circle in big races. #2 PG wired the field in May, but has never won at this distance in 3 tries. Will have to contend again with pressure from Sandi's Ready. Should point out that PG beat MMM last out. #1 Has nothing really going for her except that she looks to be the type of improving 3yo that one should be on the look out for in these types of races.
The HANA Race of the week
Arlington 5f turf Clm 35k for 3 up
#8 Maneke
4-1
6-1
#1 Mitigation
7-2
5-1
#6 Boots Are Walking
7-2
5-1
#11 The Nth Degree
6-1
9-1
#8 Won at this level and distance 2 back on the main track and is a proven commodity on Turf and the distance. Drops back after a good effort in an Optional Claiming event. #1 Mitigation drops 1 level after finishing 3/4 lengths behind next out winner. Has the ability to win here. #6 BAW is the horse for course with 3 wins in 7 tries. He could catch the top choice with a little luck. #11 could be the longshot special of the day. 12/1 in the ML the 8yo gelding gets some much needed class relief after running against much better and a nice rider upgrade with E. T. Baird.
Canterbury Minnesota H.B.P.A Mile (Turf) fillies and mares 3 up
Canterbury R8
6:03
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#10 Si Si Mon Amie
4-1
6-1
#6 Mizzcan'tbewrong
7-2
5-1
#1 Quiet Queen
7-2
5-1
#5 Lindsey's Wish
6-1
9-1
#10 Si Si Mon Amie easily looks to be the one to beat here; however I doubt there will be anything approaching the 4/1 ML here. #6 Mizzcan'tbewrong along with Fabulous Babe should be setting the early fraction, but that running style doesn't seem to work well here. #1 Quiet Queen looks to be on the improve lately and has won at this level before could get there if the trend continues. #5 Lindsey's Wish comes out of a 3rd place finish at PRM against similar. Kelly Von Hemel is 24% +ROI going Dirt to Turf.
Prarie Meadows Cornhusker G2 9 furlongs 3 up (doubt I'll be awake for this one)
Prarie Meadows R9
11:17
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 My Pal Charlie
4-1
6-1
#5 Shadowbdancing
7-2
5-1
#6 Wayzata Bay
7-2
5-1
#8 Jonesboro
6-1
9-1
#2 MPC along with Jonesboro, appears to be the class of the field, but the latter has never won at this distance so I'm giving the nod to MPC. #5 Shadowbdancing: going with some local talent for shots at the prize. #5 has had 3 digit Bris Figures last two out while going wire to wire. 3 for 4 at PRM and all 3 are stakes wins, looking to step up here. #6 WB was last years Cornhusker winner and hopes history will repeat after using the Jim Rasmussen Mem. H. as a tune up for the big race. #8 Jonesboro (class of '74 if your interested) is always in the thick of it and I expect nothing less here. But if you look at the 9f races, he always seems to hit the wall at this distance.
That's it for this week. As I said, please check out the previous article. I think a lot of readers may have missed it because the TBA Feed seemed to be hung up for a couple of days. I think you'll find it thought provoking, if nothing else.
Now for the races.
Colonial Da Hoss Stakes 50k Inner Turf for 3up
Colonial R9
4:39
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Auction Watch
4-1
6-1
#5 Jungle Fighter
7-2
5-1
#7 Baltimore Bob
7-2
5-1
#10 Frisky Thunder
6-1
9-1
#2 Auction Watch comes off a 3 digit (Brisnet) Opt Claiming win is 2 for 2 at the distance and 5 for 9 on the sod. Running style is suited for the course and Sheldon Russell is familiar with grounds so look for a good trip. #5 Jungle Fighter is 2 for 2 over CNL turf. This horse for the course is coming 2nd off layoff and should be a factor if he can regain his previous form. #7 Baltimore Bob may be the best of the group, but when the going gets tough, he always seems to come up short. #10 Frisky Thunder should be able to set the early pace and if he is allowed to relax may go all the way. The only other Quirin "E" horse is just not as fast. FT could steal the race for a price.
Monmouth Boiling Springs Stakes G3 150k Turf 3yo fillies
Monmouth R9
4:50
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#5 Bluegrass Princess
4-1
6-1
#3 My Magic Moment
7-2
5-1
#2 Platinum Girl
7-2
5-1
#1 Mary's Follies
6-1
9-1
#5 BP finally finds a graded event without Gozzip Girl to run in. The McLaughlin trainee has been ITM last 4 out and should find the winner's circle with Eddie Castro this time. #3 MMM is a stakes winner and may be ready to deny BP that first win on the Turf. Thomas Albertrani is 25% winner with +ROI in Graded events and Elvis Trujillo is no stranger to the winner's circle in big races. #2 PG wired the field in May, but has never won at this distance in 3 tries. Will have to contend again with pressure from Sandi's Ready. Should point out that PG beat MMM last out. #1 Has nothing really going for her except that she looks to be the type of improving 3yo that one should be on the look out for in these types of races.
The HANA Race of the week
Arlington 5f turf Clm 35k for 3 up
#8 Maneke
4-1
6-1
#1 Mitigation
7-2
5-1
#6 Boots Are Walking
7-2
5-1
#11 The Nth Degree
6-1
9-1
#8 Won at this level and distance 2 back on the main track and is a proven commodity on Turf and the distance. Drops back after a good effort in an Optional Claiming event. #1 Mitigation drops 1 level after finishing 3/4 lengths behind next out winner. Has the ability to win here. #6 BAW is the horse for course with 3 wins in 7 tries. He could catch the top choice with a little luck. #11 could be the longshot special of the day. 12/1 in the ML the 8yo gelding gets some much needed class relief after running against much better and a nice rider upgrade with E. T. Baird.
Canterbury Minnesota H.B.P.A Mile (Turf) fillies and mares 3 up
Canterbury R8
6:03
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#10 Si Si Mon Amie
4-1
6-1
#6 Mizzcan'tbewrong
7-2
5-1
#1 Quiet Queen
7-2
5-1
#5 Lindsey's Wish
6-1
9-1
#10 Si Si Mon Amie easily looks to be the one to beat here; however I doubt there will be anything approaching the 4/1 ML here. #6 Mizzcan'tbewrong along with Fabulous Babe should be setting the early fraction, but that running style doesn't seem to work well here. #1 Quiet Queen looks to be on the improve lately and has won at this level before could get there if the trend continues. #5 Lindsey's Wish comes out of a 3rd place finish at PRM against similar. Kelly Von Hemel is 24% +ROI going Dirt to Turf.
Prarie Meadows Cornhusker G2 9 furlongs 3 up (doubt I'll be awake for this one)
Prarie Meadows R9
11:17
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 My Pal Charlie
4-1
6-1
#5 Shadowbdancing
7-2
5-1
#6 Wayzata Bay
7-2
5-1
#8 Jonesboro
6-1
9-1
#2 MPC along with Jonesboro, appears to be the class of the field, but the latter has never won at this distance so I'm giving the nod to MPC. #5 Shadowbdancing: going with some local talent for shots at the prize. #5 has had 3 digit Bris Figures last two out while going wire to wire. 3 for 4 at PRM and all 3 are stakes wins, looking to step up here. #6 WB was last years Cornhusker winner and hopes history will repeat after using the Jim Rasmussen Mem. H. as a tune up for the big race. #8 Jonesboro (class of '74 if your interested) is always in the thick of it and I expect nothing less here. But if you look at the 9f races, he always seems to hit the wall at this distance.
That's it for this week. As I said, please check out the previous article. I think a lot of readers may have missed it because the TBA Feed seemed to be hung up for a couple of days. I think you'll find it thought provoking, if nothing else.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Handicapping The Handicapper
Firstly, my apologies for not posting the HANA and Public Handicappers picks this week. It was just one of those weeks and I didn't have the time to make the post. You didn't miss much with the PH races; however, I am sorry you missed the my only overlay out of 4 contenders in the 7th at Monmouth, Themanmythnlegend ridden by the stunning Shannon Uske, who rode a terrific race to guide Themanmythnlegend through some horrific traffic down the stretch and get her mount up in time, and trained by Lloyd Kromann. Themanmythnlegend paid 24.60 to win.
While driving down the street one recent day, I revealed to my lovely wife that I'd like to write a book sometime before I pass on to whatever awaits after this life. Because of my line of work, I am a published author in a few respected scientific journals. Although I must admit that other people did the writing. That is the way it works in the scientific world where the principle investigator usually does the writing and gives co-authorship to others who contributed in some way to the generating of the published work.
My wife asked me what I would write about and I answered,"I don't really know, I just know I'd like to write a book, novel or something." Of course, she suggested I write a book on horse racing since that is how I spend most of my spare time. Unfortunately, I had to confess that there is not much new I could really introduce on the subject since nearly all of what I have learned has come from the writings of others on the topic. In that respect, I can only parrot those who have written before me. What would be the point?
Now, for those 2 of you who have followed this blog from the beginning, you know that I am big on creating an odds line on my favorite contender for any race I contemplate playing. This is not my creation but is promoted by such racing-author luminaries as Barry Meadow, Mark Cramer, and Steve Fiero. I love their books and highly recommend each and everyone of them.
However, one major flaw I find in all of these books is that while each of them promote the making of an odds line for contenders, or even the entire field, in a race, each of them come up short in the how to exactly make an accurate odds line. Steve Fiero does offer a handy chart to help set up an odds line for 3 and 4 contender races where your contenders are assigned an overall probability of 80% to win the race. Mark Cramer in his book, "The Odds On Your Side" makes an attempt at giving a more defined process of creating an odds line, but it still requires that you assign a % value of one or more factors which will influence the outcome of the race and how each horse will either benefit or be disadvantaged by such factors. In the end, it is no less subjective than any other method of assigning an odds line.
Before going any further, let me explain to those who may not know that odds are simply another way of stating the probability of an event occurring. In our case, a particular horse winning the race. I typically think in terms of probabilities rather than odds because that is how my mind has been trained for many years; however, converting probabilities to odds is a simple mathematic operation. For instance, if you believe a horse has a 25% chance of winning the race the odds are 3-1. The conversion is simple: 1/0.25 = 4 then 4-1 =3 and, voila, 3-1 is the odds of your 25% chance.
Calculating odds from probabilities is a simple process. Assigning probabilities is not so simple. There are many factors and a high degree of randomness in any race. As a handicapper, we have to weigh every factor against the other in an attempt to decipher the horses most deserving of being considered contenders in the race. Then, if you are concerned with getting a fair price for your investment, you have to make your best guess as to what the proper odds for each contender may be. And a guess is just what it is.
There are computer programs available that will do this guessing for you. Check out Brisnet.com where you can choose from several free downloads. I tried the Allways program a few times a couple of years ago. Wasn't really all that impressed. But the truth is, any program you use to choose contenders is basically guessing. Someone had to write the program, and, in the writing of the program, had to weigh various performance and statistical factors so that the program can make a decision and assign a probability. A question you should ask yourself is how the programmer arrived at the different weightings? Perhaps the programmer used a very strict statistical method to arrive at the weightings. Perhaps the programmer used some trial and error with a lot of back testing to arrive at the ratings. Remember past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
Computers are marvelous inventions and most excellent at crunching numbers. We use computers to send spacecraft to Mars and beyond. Some computers are capable of defeating the best human chess players. But I doubt there will ever be a computer that can out handicap a good horseplayer. Computers are not so good with intangibles. What computer predicted that Dunkirk was going to set the pace in the Belmont Stakes? Maybe Todd Pletcher's. Maybe Mr. Pletcher has a program that calculated the best chance Dunkirk had to win the race was to surprise everyone and go to the front. Somehow I doubt it. If you have a computer program that consistently keeps you ahead of the game I want to know about it. Not that I would use it, because that would take all the fun out of the game.
So the question becomes, if all our best efforts at making an odds line amount to mere guess work, then where can we find hard numbers from which to make an odds line. I'm here to suggest that one has to look no further than one's own performance to make an odds line. Handicap the handicappper.
Yes you read correctly. Keep a record of how often your top choice, 2nd choice, 3rd, 4th, etc. win and base your odds on the winning percentage of each. For instance, if you are a very good handicapper and your top choice wins 33% of the time than you can make the odds for that choice 2-1. If I had the odds at 2-1, then I would ask for 3-1 before playing, but you can make that decision for yourself.
Its important while doing this to keep your records as close to being a reflection of your current performance as possible. After all, unless you are Super Handicapper you go through hot streaks and cold streaks just as I do. If you can track your performance in such a way then you would be able to bet more at lower odds when hot and less at higher odds when chilly maximizing the return on your investment. For this purpose, I recommend using a 30 race moving average.
Creating a moving average is simple. Once you add a result at the end of a series, remove the result at the beginning of the series. For example, when I add result 31 to my records, I remove result number 1 from the average. When result number 32 is added, then result number 2 is removed and on and on and on.
Now the number 30 for the moving average was not pulled out of thin air. For statistical purposes 30 events is usually considered significant for giving reliable data. One drawback of using a moving average is that it is a lagging statistic. If we used, for instance, a 60 race moving average, it may be a better overall indication of our handicapping ability, but it would be less reflective of our current performance.
Now the real beauty of this methodology is that you can conceivably handicap an entire race card without ever looking at a past performance. Does your local newspaper have a handicapper? You could handicap how well he does with his picks. Calculate odds for each selection and play off the local tout's picks.
Another possibility is to handicap how well the masses are at picking winners. Check out the results charts for any track you are interested in and calculate how often the first, second, third and fourth choices come in. If you choose the to handicap masses, I suggest you divide the races into logical divisions such as dirt and turf, sprints and routes, maiden claimers and stakes races, etc. The choices are nearly limitless.
Now in the interest of full disclosure, I have to admit that I really have not tried this out on anything but my own performance. And the moving average thing, that's just something that I came up with as I was brainstorming the idea. But, at least, using this method, you have something concrete to base your line on. I don't know about you but this idea makes perfect sense to me. On the other hand, perhaps this will merely qualify as another whacky betting method. There is one way to find out. Run the numbers.
I'll be back in a day or two with my HANA and PH picks for Saturday. The HANA race will be the 9th at Arlington Park. A 5 furlong Turf Sprint, one of my favorites.
While driving down the street one recent day, I revealed to my lovely wife that I'd like to write a book sometime before I pass on to whatever awaits after this life. Because of my line of work, I am a published author in a few respected scientific journals. Although I must admit that other people did the writing. That is the way it works in the scientific world where the principle investigator usually does the writing and gives co-authorship to others who contributed in some way to the generating of the published work.
My wife asked me what I would write about and I answered,"I don't really know, I just know I'd like to write a book, novel or something." Of course, she suggested I write a book on horse racing since that is how I spend most of my spare time. Unfortunately, I had to confess that there is not much new I could really introduce on the subject since nearly all of what I have learned has come from the writings of others on the topic. In that respect, I can only parrot those who have written before me. What would be the point?
Now, for those 2 of you who have followed this blog from the beginning, you know that I am big on creating an odds line on my favorite contender for any race I contemplate playing. This is not my creation but is promoted by such racing-author luminaries as Barry Meadow, Mark Cramer, and Steve Fiero. I love their books and highly recommend each and everyone of them.
However, one major flaw I find in all of these books is that while each of them promote the making of an odds line for contenders, or even the entire field, in a race, each of them come up short in the how to exactly make an accurate odds line. Steve Fiero does offer a handy chart to help set up an odds line for 3 and 4 contender races where your contenders are assigned an overall probability of 80% to win the race. Mark Cramer in his book, "The Odds On Your Side" makes an attempt at giving a more defined process of creating an odds line, but it still requires that you assign a % value of one or more factors which will influence the outcome of the race and how each horse will either benefit or be disadvantaged by such factors. In the end, it is no less subjective than any other method of assigning an odds line.
Before going any further, let me explain to those who may not know that odds are simply another way of stating the probability of an event occurring. In our case, a particular horse winning the race. I typically think in terms of probabilities rather than odds because that is how my mind has been trained for many years; however, converting probabilities to odds is a simple mathematic operation. For instance, if you believe a horse has a 25% chance of winning the race the odds are 3-1. The conversion is simple: 1/0.25 = 4 then 4-1 =3 and, voila, 3-1 is the odds of your 25% chance.
Calculating odds from probabilities is a simple process. Assigning probabilities is not so simple. There are many factors and a high degree of randomness in any race. As a handicapper, we have to weigh every factor against the other in an attempt to decipher the horses most deserving of being considered contenders in the race. Then, if you are concerned with getting a fair price for your investment, you have to make your best guess as to what the proper odds for each contender may be. And a guess is just what it is.
There are computer programs available that will do this guessing for you. Check out Brisnet.com where you can choose from several free downloads. I tried the Allways program a few times a couple of years ago. Wasn't really all that impressed. But the truth is, any program you use to choose contenders is basically guessing. Someone had to write the program, and, in the writing of the program, had to weigh various performance and statistical factors so that the program can make a decision and assign a probability. A question you should ask yourself is how the programmer arrived at the different weightings? Perhaps the programmer used a very strict statistical method to arrive at the weightings. Perhaps the programmer used some trial and error with a lot of back testing to arrive at the ratings. Remember past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
Computers are marvelous inventions and most excellent at crunching numbers. We use computers to send spacecraft to Mars and beyond. Some computers are capable of defeating the best human chess players. But I doubt there will ever be a computer that can out handicap a good horseplayer. Computers are not so good with intangibles. What computer predicted that Dunkirk was going to set the pace in the Belmont Stakes? Maybe Todd Pletcher's. Maybe Mr. Pletcher has a program that calculated the best chance Dunkirk had to win the race was to surprise everyone and go to the front. Somehow I doubt it. If you have a computer program that consistently keeps you ahead of the game I want to know about it. Not that I would use it, because that would take all the fun out of the game.
So the question becomes, if all our best efforts at making an odds line amount to mere guess work, then where can we find hard numbers from which to make an odds line. I'm here to suggest that one has to look no further than one's own performance to make an odds line. Handicap the handicappper.
Yes you read correctly. Keep a record of how often your top choice, 2nd choice, 3rd, 4th, etc. win and base your odds on the winning percentage of each. For instance, if you are a very good handicapper and your top choice wins 33% of the time than you can make the odds for that choice 2-1. If I had the odds at 2-1, then I would ask for 3-1 before playing, but you can make that decision for yourself.
Its important while doing this to keep your records as close to being a reflection of your current performance as possible. After all, unless you are Super Handicapper you go through hot streaks and cold streaks just as I do. If you can track your performance in such a way then you would be able to bet more at lower odds when hot and less at higher odds when chilly maximizing the return on your investment. For this purpose, I recommend using a 30 race moving average.
Creating a moving average is simple. Once you add a result at the end of a series, remove the result at the beginning of the series. For example, when I add result 31 to my records, I remove result number 1 from the average. When result number 32 is added, then result number 2 is removed and on and on and on.
Now the number 30 for the moving average was not pulled out of thin air. For statistical purposes 30 events is usually considered significant for giving reliable data. One drawback of using a moving average is that it is a lagging statistic. If we used, for instance, a 60 race moving average, it may be a better overall indication of our handicapping ability, but it would be less reflective of our current performance.
Now the real beauty of this methodology is that you can conceivably handicap an entire race card without ever looking at a past performance. Does your local newspaper have a handicapper? You could handicap how well he does with his picks. Calculate odds for each selection and play off the local tout's picks.
Another possibility is to handicap how well the masses are at picking winners. Check out the results charts for any track you are interested in and calculate how often the first, second, third and fourth choices come in. If you choose the to handicap masses, I suggest you divide the races into logical divisions such as dirt and turf, sprints and routes, maiden claimers and stakes races, etc. The choices are nearly limitless.
Now in the interest of full disclosure, I have to admit that I really have not tried this out on anything but my own performance. And the moving average thing, that's just something that I came up with as I was brainstorming the idea. But, at least, using this method, you have something concrete to base your line on. I don't know about you but this idea makes perfect sense to me. On the other hand, perhaps this will merely qualify as another whacky betting method. There is one way to find out. Run the numbers.
I'll be back in a day or two with my HANA and PH picks for Saturday. The HANA race will be the 9th at Arlington Park. A 5 furlong Turf Sprint, one of my favorites.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Phandcapper and HANA Pool Races: May 30
Another Saturday and another installment on Public Handicapper and the HANA Pool race of the week.
By now the word is out that Rachel Alexandra will not run in the Belmont. I don't have much to add to that which has already been said elsewhere I'm sure. I do remember reading somewhere that Asmussen had said that she did not come out of the Preakness as well as they liked. I remember thinking she was looking tiredl towards the end of the race, but then after watching the replay, I thought perhaps I was mistaken with my initial impression. I'm so confused. All the same, the Belmont seems to be attracting a good field. Unfortunately, it appears Friesan Fire will also miss the Belmont. At least I won't have to burn anymore money on him for awhile.
And now for the Picks.
The first race on deck is the McKayMackenna S for F and M 3up which have not won an open sweepstakes on the turf in 2008 or 2009
I found this race to be a very competitive brain buster. In my mind Scolara is something of a stand out here, but after that its anybody's guess. In addition to my choices below, keep an eye on #9 Shadiyna who ran a real good race in an OC50kn2x last out which she might've won except for getting bumped before the wire.
Belmont R8
4:44
#6 Scolara
2-1
3-1
#2 La Hernanda
5-1
8-1
#10 Kristi With A K
5-1
8-1
#8 Pastel Gal
5-1
8-1
In what looks to be a very competitive race, #6 Scolara gets the favorite position based on previous stakes and grade 3 showing. After Scolara you can take your pick #2 La Hernanda comes off a 5 month layoff after beating open alw company in Tampa (note she was dq'ed and placed 2nd). Plenty of time to rest after achieving the top figure in the field #10 K with a K has only finished OTM once in 9 starts and is unbeaten in 2 tries on Belmont Turf. #8 Pastel Gal bested K with a K in a Jan. GP allowance.
The next race is the HANA Pool race. Lots of grumbling on the HANA message board about playing such a high profile track. Not from me. Sheesh, can't we all just get along? This race looks to be very competitive; however it is difficult to pick against Semaphore Man here. Though, as usual, I'll be letting the odds do my picking for me.
G3 Aristides for 3 up
Churchill R10
5:29
#6 Semaphore Man
5-2
4-1
#5 Sok Sok
3-1
9-2
#2 Cassoulet
6-1
9-1
#7 Premium Wine
6-1
9-1
#6 Semaphore Man never seems to have a bad race except when on artificial comes into race rested after Oaklawn Park G3 win. #5 Sok Sok is a 5 of 10 winner and 3 of 6 at the distance gets Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan. #2 Cassoulet looks to be on the improve and in good form and may surprise in this spot. #7 Premium Wine flashed alot of speed in NY last spring before going on the shelf for 8 months. Has been working regularly since early April and is the fastest of the group if he has regained his old form.
Moving out west to Golden Gate Fields for the Golden Gate Fields Turf Stakes-G3 for 4 and up the biggest surprise may be the field size at 9. Of course this race attracted several SoCal runners and looks to be a good one.
GGF R8
7:23
#3 Spring House
2-1
3-1
#5 Yacht Spotter
4-1
6-1
#6 Porfido
5-1
8-1
#9 Obrigado
5-1
8-1
#3 Spring House is a distance specialist and the only recent Graded stakes race winner in the bunch. Lately running in good company the 7 yo gelding goes slumming up to GGF in search of some Graded stakes money. After bleeding in the San Luis Rey, SH came back with a good effort in the San Juan Capistrano. Always deferential to the home team and horses for courses #5 Yacht Spotter is 5 for 8 and 8 times ITM at GGF. This front running type is stetching out to this distance for the first time, can be rated, and often these types of races can be won on the front end. Witness Criticism last week at Belmont. Besides the distance the worry for YS will be the speedy Shem at post 1 who may not be inclined to let YS have an easy time at the front. #6 Porfido and #9 Obrigado have each been chasing SH around alot. Porfido seems to be at his best at these longer distances and Obrigado was a mere 3/4 lengths behind SH last out.
Finally we wind up the evening in Hollywood. Enjoy it while you have it. The race is the Gamely Stakes-G1. I expect Black Mamba will get wound up for a big stretch run again. I think she was clearly the best at the end in the Santa Barbara and am not convinced she lost that race. Check the photo below and you decide. Meanwhile, here are the selections.
Hol R9
8:08
#10 Black Mamba
3-1
7-2
#4 Diamond Diva
7-2
5-1
#7 Magical Fantasy
4-1
6-1
#1 Tuscan Diva
6-1
9-1
#10 Black Mamba wound up going 9 wide, (comments say 6, but check the replay) to just miss and should turn the tables on the 7 with a little luck #4 Diamond Diva is the Horse for Course pick in here and has a victory over the top choice should be near front meaning less traffic and less that can go wrong. #7 Magical Fantasy rode the rails in the Santa Barbara while BM took the long route and just managed to hang on. In fact, check the win photo as it looks like a dead heat to me. Look for a different outcome this time. #1 Tuscan Diva should get the early lead and has top rider Bejarano aboard to see if she can be coaxed all the way home. I think the field is too strong for her, but worth a shot at a long price.
Black Mamba is the outside horse.
By now the word is out that Rachel Alexandra will not run in the Belmont. I don't have much to add to that which has already been said elsewhere I'm sure. I do remember reading somewhere that Asmussen had said that she did not come out of the Preakness as well as they liked. I remember thinking she was looking tiredl towards the end of the race, but then after watching the replay, I thought perhaps I was mistaken with my initial impression. I'm so confused. All the same, the Belmont seems to be attracting a good field. Unfortunately, it appears Friesan Fire will also miss the Belmont. At least I won't have to burn anymore money on him for awhile.
And now for the Picks.
The first race on deck is the McKayMackenna S for F and M 3up which have not won an open sweepstakes on the turf in 2008 or 2009
I found this race to be a very competitive brain buster. In my mind Scolara is something of a stand out here, but after that its anybody's guess. In addition to my choices below, keep an eye on #9 Shadiyna who ran a real good race in an OC50kn2x last out which she might've won except for getting bumped before the wire.
Belmont R8
4:44
#6 Scolara
2-1
3-1
#2 La Hernanda
5-1
8-1
#10 Kristi With A K
5-1
8-1
#8 Pastel Gal
5-1
8-1
In what looks to be a very competitive race, #6 Scolara gets the favorite position based on previous stakes and grade 3 showing. After Scolara you can take your pick #2 La Hernanda comes off a 5 month layoff after beating open alw company in Tampa (note she was dq'ed and placed 2nd). Plenty of time to rest after achieving the top figure in the field #10 K with a K has only finished OTM once in 9 starts and is unbeaten in 2 tries on Belmont Turf. #8 Pastel Gal bested K with a K in a Jan. GP allowance.
The next race is the HANA Pool race. Lots of grumbling on the HANA message board about playing such a high profile track. Not from me. Sheesh, can't we all just get along? This race looks to be very competitive; however it is difficult to pick against Semaphore Man here. Though, as usual, I'll be letting the odds do my picking for me.
G3 Aristides for 3 up
Churchill R10
5:29
#6 Semaphore Man
5-2
4-1
#5 Sok Sok
3-1
9-2
#2 Cassoulet
6-1
9-1
#7 Premium Wine
6-1
9-1
#6 Semaphore Man never seems to have a bad race except when on artificial comes into race rested after Oaklawn Park G3 win. #5 Sok Sok is a 5 of 10 winner and 3 of 6 at the distance gets Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan. #2 Cassoulet looks to be on the improve and in good form and may surprise in this spot. #7 Premium Wine flashed alot of speed in NY last spring before going on the shelf for 8 months. Has been working regularly since early April and is the fastest of the group if he has regained his old form.
Moving out west to Golden Gate Fields for the Golden Gate Fields Turf Stakes-G3 for 4 and up the biggest surprise may be the field size at 9. Of course this race attracted several SoCal runners and looks to be a good one.
GGF R8
7:23
#3 Spring House
2-1
3-1
#5 Yacht Spotter
4-1
6-1
#6 Porfido
5-1
8-1
#9 Obrigado
5-1
8-1
#3 Spring House is a distance specialist and the only recent Graded stakes race winner in the bunch. Lately running in good company the 7 yo gelding goes slumming up to GGF in search of some Graded stakes money. After bleeding in the San Luis Rey, SH came back with a good effort in the San Juan Capistrano. Always deferential to the home team and horses for courses #5 Yacht Spotter is 5 for 8 and 8 times ITM at GGF. This front running type is stetching out to this distance for the first time, can be rated, and often these types of races can be won on the front end. Witness Criticism last week at Belmont. Besides the distance the worry for YS will be the speedy Shem at post 1 who may not be inclined to let YS have an easy time at the front. #6 Porfido and #9 Obrigado have each been chasing SH around alot. Porfido seems to be at his best at these longer distances and Obrigado was a mere 3/4 lengths behind SH last out.
Finally we wind up the evening in Hollywood. Enjoy it while you have it. The race is the Gamely Stakes-G1. I expect Black Mamba will get wound up for a big stretch run again. I think she was clearly the best at the end in the Santa Barbara and am not convinced she lost that race. Check the photo below and you decide. Meanwhile, here are the selections.
Hol R9
8:08
#10 Black Mamba
3-1
7-2
#4 Diamond Diva
7-2
5-1
#7 Magical Fantasy
4-1
6-1
#1 Tuscan Diva
6-1
9-1
#10 Black Mamba wound up going 9 wide, (comments say 6, but check the replay) to just miss and should turn the tables on the 7 with a little luck #4 Diamond Diva is the Horse for Course pick in here and has a victory over the top choice should be near front meaning less traffic and less that can go wrong. #7 Magical Fantasy rode the rails in the Santa Barbara while BM took the long route and just managed to hang on. In fact, check the win photo as it looks like a dead heat to me. Look for a different outcome this time. #1 Tuscan Diva should get the early lead and has top rider Bejarano aboard to see if she can be coaxed all the way home. I think the field is too strong for her, but worth a shot at a long price.
Black Mamba is the outside horse.
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Post Race Analysis for May 23
Back again. Officially, as far as the PH is concerned, I was 0 for 4.
Unofficially, and better for me, Euphony led broke alertly from the gate and led going into the clubhouse turned. Going down the backstretch, Euphony allowed the 90-1 Boudoir to go to the lead. Never trailing the leader by more than a length Euphony took command at the top of the stretch and was easily the best of Indescibable (show) and Kiss With A Twist (place) neither of whom could make up any ground on the winner. Euphony paid 17.80 to win. The $1 exacta, which I also had, paid $49.50. If only I'd played the Trifecta.
6/1 in the morning line, Euphony went off at nearly 8-1. Honestly, I cannot understand how the betting collective allowed Euphony to get off at such a price. Indescribable went of at 4/5 as the deserving favorite. Indescribable, coming off of 2 G3 wins deserved to be the favorite, but not at 4/5. There are two reasons I can think of for Euphony to be so relatively dismissed: 1) No G3 wins and 2) no experience on artificial surfaces.
When I am handicapping Graded Stakes races. The first thing I look for are horses which have shown that they are capable of winning at that level. However, when looking specifically at G3 races, one also has to be aware of 1) horses dropping in from G2 races and 2) up and coming horses that are demonstrating good form. Euphony obviously comes out of that latter group and is really the type you need to be on the lookout for because you won't get 8 to 1 on her next race. In many ways, this reminds me of Wild Promises who came to CRC last year after dominating stakes races at Golden Gate. Wild Promises went off at 5/1 that race and I couldn't believe my good fortune. Good luck getting 5/1 on Wild Promises after that race.
Thus, I come to the other hang up we handicappers have. Euphony's lack of artificial surface form. One item that I have recently been incorporating into my handicapping tool-kit is pedigree. I have previously pretty much paid no attention to pedigree, but have recently been learning of how powerful a tool pedigree can actually be. If one checks Euphony's pedigree, she was sired by Forest Wildcat out of the Smart Strike mare Strike It Up. Accordign to the Sire Stats book put out by Thoroughbred Sports Network, both of sides of Euphony's pedigree are above average (B rated) all-weather surface sires. But in this case, I didn't need to refer to the reference book to know that Euphony would handle the surface fine. As I wrote before, Euphony had won 4 consecutive stakes races on at 4 different tracks, 2 on turf, and 2 on dirt. In addition, Euphony had been training very well at Arlington including 2 bullet workouts over fake dirt. There was no doubt in my mind that Euphony would handle the surface. Some horses care about the surface and some don't. Euphony clearly fits into the latter category.
Ok, so much for my big win of the day, what about all those losses. The Sheepshead Bay at Belmont was a pretty simple race to handicap. Criticism was the horse to beat, and there was a way to beat him. Unfortunately, Kiaran McLaughlin's uncoupled entry raced as an uncoupled entry as both horses, in tandem, dropped to the back of the pack at the start of the race and Criticism was once again allowed to relax on an uncontested lead. The past performances suggested that Colina Verde, ridden by Alan Garcia, might be inclined to apply some pressure to Criticism and make him actually work for his lead. Instead, Garcia instantly applied a choke hold to Colina Verde at the start and Criticism led the field from wire to wire without ever being truly challenged. An outcome which I warned of but didn't wager on.
The Louisville handicap at Churchill Downs just turned out to be one of those races that all handicappers run into. Brass Hat has been winless for the last year and a half. At one time a top grass runner, it seemed as if 8 year old gelding's best competitive years were behind him. The real disappointment in this race was betting choice Always First who never really seriously contended in this race. Spice Route and Thabazimbi pretty much went as expected and just got beat today. I think the clues to Always First less than inspired performance likely lies in the comment lines for his last two races: 1) Lacked closing bid and 2) failed to menace. Perhaps at 8 years of age, Always First is losing interest. Note for next time. Check out the race replay.
Perhaps the most surprising outcome was in the Hanshin Hdcp. While not considered a contender for my selection purposes T=the winner, Vacation, ridden by J. R. Velazquez and trained by Claude "Shug" McGaughey (Gee, I wish I had a great nickname like that) was not a shocker. I thought Stonehouse would regress based upon his recent figure patterns and Cherokee Artist gave it a good effort in finishing 3rd, but Coragil Cat laid a big fat egg out there starting last out of the gate and finishing last at the end. Coming back 2nd off a layoff to a track where he had run well before, this just doesn't figure. But then, racing doesn't always figure. Fortunately for you, this race was a pass. Unfortunately for me, I had to make my play earlier than normal due to unusual circumstances while Coragil Cat was still at playable odds. That'll teach me not to use that conditional option. Looking critically at my own performance, Stonehouse should not have been a contender if I felt he was going to regress to form insufficient to win. I am satisfied with the other selections, if not the outcome. The elimination of Stonehouse as a contender could have made room for a 4th contender or just left it at 3 lowering the needed odds on the remaining 3.
Finally, coming to the HANA race of the week at Canterbury PARK, I had the top two finishers in order despite the race being moved to the main track. OK, really now, does anyone really believe that 10k claimers care about the surface? Especially when most of these weren't particularly the specialist type anyways. My bet was the longshot Elegant Star. I said in my analysis that I thought he was a notch below the others and as it turned out I was correct. But, if you can't take a shot in a race like this, when will you ever take a shot? Elegant Star stayed in contention for about a half and then fell back to bring up the rear, but that's OK. You can't win them all.
There was alot of talk on the HANA discussion group about how this race was a failure for the In The Pool buycott. Also some discussion about how our Canadian cousins were shut out of the action. I hope what has begun as a positive movement to improve the sport we all love doesn't devolve into a pissing contest because everyone can't be pleased all of the time. Sheesh, were horse players, you'd think we'd be used to losing every now and then.
'Til the next time.
Chalk Eating Weasel
Addendum: As reported by Bloodhorse.com, Jockey Rene Douglas has come out of 7 hours of surgery due to injuries incurred in an accident during the Matron Hdcp at Arlington Park yesterday. The incident occured when Born To Be clipped heels with Boudoir after being bumped by Sky Mom. Born To Be threw Douglas and the flipped over and landed on top of the rider. Bloodhorse reports that at this time it is unlikely Douglas will walk again; however that will not be known for certain until the swelling in the spinal area recedes. Bloodhorse also reported that Born To Be has recovered from the incident and has been returned to the barn of trainer Eric Cointreaux.
Pray or hope or make a sacrifice or whatever you do to get a good outcome over something you have no control over for the recovery of Rene Douglas.
Correction: In the post above I said that Brass Hat was, at one time, a top turf horse. The Bloodhorse reports that prior to Saturday's race, Brass Hat had not won in 7 tries over grass hardly qualifying as a top turf horse. All the same, had I been privy to that information, I would've been even less inclined to consider Brass Hat a contender. I remain of the opinion that Brass Hat is a classy horse and congratulate Calvin Borel on another great ride in this remarkable season he is having.
Unofficially, and better for me, Euphony led broke alertly from the gate and led going into the clubhouse turned. Going down the backstretch, Euphony allowed the 90-1 Boudoir to go to the lead. Never trailing the leader by more than a length Euphony took command at the top of the stretch and was easily the best of Indescibable (show) and Kiss With A Twist (place) neither of whom could make up any ground on the winner. Euphony paid 17.80 to win. The $1 exacta, which I also had, paid $49.50. If only I'd played the Trifecta.
6/1 in the morning line, Euphony went off at nearly 8-1. Honestly, I cannot understand how the betting collective allowed Euphony to get off at such a price. Indescribable went of at 4/5 as the deserving favorite. Indescribable, coming off of 2 G3 wins deserved to be the favorite, but not at 4/5. There are two reasons I can think of for Euphony to be so relatively dismissed: 1) No G3 wins and 2) no experience on artificial surfaces.
When I am handicapping Graded Stakes races. The first thing I look for are horses which have shown that they are capable of winning at that level. However, when looking specifically at G3 races, one also has to be aware of 1) horses dropping in from G2 races and 2) up and coming horses that are demonstrating good form. Euphony obviously comes out of that latter group and is really the type you need to be on the lookout for because you won't get 8 to 1 on her next race. In many ways, this reminds me of Wild Promises who came to CRC last year after dominating stakes races at Golden Gate. Wild Promises went off at 5/1 that race and I couldn't believe my good fortune. Good luck getting 5/1 on Wild Promises after that race.
Thus, I come to the other hang up we handicappers have. Euphony's lack of artificial surface form. One item that I have recently been incorporating into my handicapping tool-kit is pedigree. I have previously pretty much paid no attention to pedigree, but have recently been learning of how powerful a tool pedigree can actually be. If one checks Euphony's pedigree, she was sired by Forest Wildcat out of the Smart Strike mare Strike It Up. Accordign to the Sire Stats book put out by Thoroughbred Sports Network, both of sides of Euphony's pedigree are above average (B rated) all-weather surface sires. But in this case, I didn't need to refer to the reference book to know that Euphony would handle the surface fine. As I wrote before, Euphony had won 4 consecutive stakes races on at 4 different tracks, 2 on turf, and 2 on dirt. In addition, Euphony had been training very well at Arlington including 2 bullet workouts over fake dirt. There was no doubt in my mind that Euphony would handle the surface. Some horses care about the surface and some don't. Euphony clearly fits into the latter category.
Ok, so much for my big win of the day, what about all those losses. The Sheepshead Bay at Belmont was a pretty simple race to handicap. Criticism was the horse to beat, and there was a way to beat him. Unfortunately, Kiaran McLaughlin's uncoupled entry raced as an uncoupled entry as both horses, in tandem, dropped to the back of the pack at the start of the race and Criticism was once again allowed to relax on an uncontested lead. The past performances suggested that Colina Verde, ridden by Alan Garcia, might be inclined to apply some pressure to Criticism and make him actually work for his lead. Instead, Garcia instantly applied a choke hold to Colina Verde at the start and Criticism led the field from wire to wire without ever being truly challenged. An outcome which I warned of but didn't wager on.
The Louisville handicap at Churchill Downs just turned out to be one of those races that all handicappers run into. Brass Hat has been winless for the last year and a half. At one time a top grass runner, it seemed as if 8 year old gelding's best competitive years were behind him. The real disappointment in this race was betting choice Always First who never really seriously contended in this race. Spice Route and Thabazimbi pretty much went as expected and just got beat today. I think the clues to Always First less than inspired performance likely lies in the comment lines for his last two races: 1) Lacked closing bid and 2) failed to menace. Perhaps at 8 years of age, Always First is losing interest. Note for next time. Check out the race replay.
Perhaps the most surprising outcome was in the Hanshin Hdcp. While not considered a contender for my selection purposes T=the winner, Vacation, ridden by J. R. Velazquez and trained by Claude "Shug" McGaughey (Gee, I wish I had a great nickname like that) was not a shocker. I thought Stonehouse would regress based upon his recent figure patterns and Cherokee Artist gave it a good effort in finishing 3rd, but Coragil Cat laid a big fat egg out there starting last out of the gate and finishing last at the end. Coming back 2nd off a layoff to a track where he had run well before, this just doesn't figure. But then, racing doesn't always figure. Fortunately for you, this race was a pass. Unfortunately for me, I had to make my play earlier than normal due to unusual circumstances while Coragil Cat was still at playable odds. That'll teach me not to use that conditional option. Looking critically at my own performance, Stonehouse should not have been a contender if I felt he was going to regress to form insufficient to win. I am satisfied with the other selections, if not the outcome. The elimination of Stonehouse as a contender could have made room for a 4th contender or just left it at 3 lowering the needed odds on the remaining 3.
Finally, coming to the HANA race of the week at Canterbury PARK, I had the top two finishers in order despite the race being moved to the main track. OK, really now, does anyone really believe that 10k claimers care about the surface? Especially when most of these weren't particularly the specialist type anyways. My bet was the longshot Elegant Star. I said in my analysis that I thought he was a notch below the others and as it turned out I was correct. But, if you can't take a shot in a race like this, when will you ever take a shot? Elegant Star stayed in contention for about a half and then fell back to bring up the rear, but that's OK. You can't win them all.
There was alot of talk on the HANA discussion group about how this race was a failure for the In The Pool buycott. Also some discussion about how our Canadian cousins were shut out of the action. I hope what has begun as a positive movement to improve the sport we all love doesn't devolve into a pissing contest because everyone can't be pleased all of the time. Sheesh, were horse players, you'd think we'd be used to losing every now and then.
'Til the next time.
Chalk Eating Weasel
Addendum: As reported by Bloodhorse.com, Jockey Rene Douglas has come out of 7 hours of surgery due to injuries incurred in an accident during the Matron Hdcp at Arlington Park yesterday. The incident occured when Born To Be clipped heels with Boudoir after being bumped by Sky Mom. Born To Be threw Douglas and the flipped over and landed on top of the rider. Bloodhorse reports that at this time it is unlikely Douglas will walk again; however that will not be known for certain until the swelling in the spinal area recedes. Bloodhorse also reported that Born To Be has recovered from the incident and has been returned to the barn of trainer Eric Cointreaux.
Pray or hope or make a sacrifice or whatever you do to get a good outcome over something you have no control over for the recovery of Rene Douglas.
Correction: In the post above I said that Brass Hat was, at one time, a top turf horse. The Bloodhorse reports that prior to Saturday's race, Brass Hat had not won in 7 tries over grass hardly qualifying as a top turf horse. All the same, had I been privy to that information, I would've been even less inclined to consider Brass Hat a contender. I remain of the opinion that Brass Hat is a classy horse and congratulate Calvin Borel on another great ride in this remarkable season he is having.
Saturday, May 23, 2009
PH and HANA Pool Picks: May 23
It's Saturday and that means time for another week of Stakes Race and Pool picks from the Chalk Eating Weasel.
The Public Handicapper contest selections give us a little bit of everything from Turf to Synthetics. Throw in a race on turf for cheap claiming horses from HANA and the day is complete.
First lets take on the G2 Sheepshead Bay Stakes for F and M 3 and up at a 11 furlongs. Post time is 5:17 Eastern.
1. Backstreet Rhythm
2-1
3-1
7. Caprice
3-1
9-2
3. Criticism
7-2
5-1
#1 and #3 faced each other in Feb. #3 had it all her own way that day leading from start to finish with no real pressure. Today McLauglin runs an uncoupled entry with Alan Garcia on Colina Verde. Alan's mission, should he choose to accept it, will be to make sure that Criticism doesn't get so comfy on the lead today. Backstreet Rhythm is 3 for 3 at Belmont and should make it 4 for 4 today if the above scenario plays out. Caprice, trained by Graham Motion and ridden by Edgar Prado, is 1 for 3 at the distance and 3 time ITM. She is another who could benefit from the aforementioned scenario. Or Criticism could just run away from them all again today.
Next is the 12 Furlong G3 Louisville Handicap for 3 and up on the Turf. Post Time is 5:29
8. Spice Route
6-5
9-5
5. Always First
7-2
5-1
9.Thabazimbi
6-1
9-1
Spice Route always seems to be the obvious choice, but I never seem to be able to catch him on a winning run. Always First has been first 5 of 13 tries at this distance and ITM 10 of 13. R. Albarado at 19% on Turf should be an improvement over G. Gomez who hasn't fared well on his eastern tour in the big races. Thabazimbi is ridden by J. Leparoux which makes him an automatic contender in my book. Entry level Alw winner in American debut (ridden by Gomez), the step up may be too much, but Leparoux rules @ CD and seems to get the best out of his mounts.
Meanwhile, up in Chicago land
Arlington Park R9 9 Furlongs G3 Arlington Matron Hdcp for F and M 3 and up Post Time 5:57
9. Indescribable
5-2
4-1
7. Euphony
4-1
6-1
#2 Kiss With A Twist
5-1
8-1
#1 Sky Mom
6-1
9-1
Indescribable is the 2-1 ML Favorite and with Desormeaux aboard, not likely to offer much value. Euphony may be the value horse hear, having won 4 consecutive minor stakes at 4 different tracks shows a versatility that is often lacking these days. This horse for any course has fired two bullet w/o's at AP and should handle the surface fine. KWAT ran 3rd on the turf last out in a G2 event at Keeneland and has shown an affinity for fake dirt. Sky Mom comes 2nd off layoff, a G3 winner at AP she should improve off her last effort.
and R10 G3 Hanshin Cup H. for 3 and up. Post Time 6:28
8 Coragil Cat
3-1
9-2
2. Cherokee Artist
7-2
5-1
1. Stonehouse
4-1
6-1
7. Amazing Results
6-1
9-1
I believe in horses for courses and history repeating. Coragil Cat won this race last year with Diego Sanchez aboard. The pace in this race should be fast which will be the perfect set up for a 2nd trip to the Winner's Circle in this race. Cherokee Artist is another that will benefit from a fast early pace. Stonehouse has been tearing up the track, has lots of speed and is not a need to lead type. However I also believe in figure patterns and Stonehouse ran his best race last out at Hawthorne. Amazing Results is 2 for 2 at AP and 1 for 1 at the distance. Will need to step up here to compete coming 2nd off layoff could be worth a flyer at a price.
And now the HANA pool race from Canterbury Downs. An 8 furlong affair for claiming price of $10,000 for F and M 3 and up. Post Time 5:40
1. Darby Lee
3-1
9-2
11. Deb Doright
7-2
5-1
6. Fancy And Quick
4-1
6-1
10 Elegant Star
6-1
9-1
A lot of horses coming up from Turf Paradise, but I'll be going with the horse that wintered in FL. Darby Lee is 2 for 6 on the CBY turf course. 11. Deb Doright breaks from the outside and I think Ry Eikleberry was the leading rider at Tup, but she is yet to get off the schnied in 6 turf tries. 6. FAQ is another Tup immigrant drops a level here but is winless in 9 turf attempts. 10. Elegant star has one win in open claiming co. and a win on the CBY turf, but seems a notch below the others
That does it for today. Remember the rules. Play only the overlays. If there are 3 or more overlays it is probable I am more clueless than usual so don't play my picks, I won't. If there are 2 overlays, play the lowest odds horse. If there are two overlays at odds greater than 8-1 then you can play both and Dutch them if you wish. The first set of odds is what I consider fair. I don't want fair. The 2nd set is fair +50%. Gives me lots of room to be wrong.
Good Luck, enjoy the day and get some winners.
The Public Handicapper contest selections give us a little bit of everything from Turf to Synthetics. Throw in a race on turf for cheap claiming horses from HANA and the day is complete.
First lets take on the G2 Sheepshead Bay Stakes for F and M 3 and up at a 11 furlongs. Post time is 5:17 Eastern.
1. Backstreet Rhythm
2-1
3-1
7. Caprice
3-1
9-2
3. Criticism
7-2
5-1
#1 and #3 faced each other in Feb. #3 had it all her own way that day leading from start to finish with no real pressure. Today McLauglin runs an uncoupled entry with Alan Garcia on Colina Verde. Alan's mission, should he choose to accept it, will be to make sure that Criticism doesn't get so comfy on the lead today. Backstreet Rhythm is 3 for 3 at Belmont and should make it 4 for 4 today if the above scenario plays out. Caprice, trained by Graham Motion and ridden by Edgar Prado, is 1 for 3 at the distance and 3 time ITM. She is another who could benefit from the aforementioned scenario. Or Criticism could just run away from them all again today.
Next is the 12 Furlong G3 Louisville Handicap for 3 and up on the Turf. Post Time is 5:29
8. Spice Route
6-5
9-5
5. Always First
7-2
5-1
9.Thabazimbi
6-1
9-1
Spice Route always seems to be the obvious choice, but I never seem to be able to catch him on a winning run. Always First has been first 5 of 13 tries at this distance and ITM 10 of 13. R. Albarado at 19% on Turf should be an improvement over G. Gomez who hasn't fared well on his eastern tour in the big races. Thabazimbi is ridden by J. Leparoux which makes him an automatic contender in my book. Entry level Alw winner in American debut (ridden by Gomez), the step up may be too much, but Leparoux rules @ CD and seems to get the best out of his mounts.
Meanwhile, up in Chicago land
Arlington Park R9 9 Furlongs G3 Arlington Matron Hdcp for F and M 3 and up Post Time 5:57
9. Indescribable
5-2
4-1
7. Euphony
4-1
6-1
#2 Kiss With A Twist
5-1
8-1
#1 Sky Mom
6-1
9-1
Indescribable is the 2-1 ML Favorite and with Desormeaux aboard, not likely to offer much value. Euphony may be the value horse hear, having won 4 consecutive minor stakes at 4 different tracks shows a versatility that is often lacking these days. This horse for any course has fired two bullet w/o's at AP and should handle the surface fine. KWAT ran 3rd on the turf last out in a G2 event at Keeneland and has shown an affinity for fake dirt. Sky Mom comes 2nd off layoff, a G3 winner at AP she should improve off her last effort.
and R10 G3 Hanshin Cup H. for 3 and up. Post Time 6:28
8 Coragil Cat
3-1
9-2
2. Cherokee Artist
7-2
5-1
1. Stonehouse
4-1
6-1
7. Amazing Results
6-1
9-1
I believe in horses for courses and history repeating. Coragil Cat won this race last year with Diego Sanchez aboard. The pace in this race should be fast which will be the perfect set up for a 2nd trip to the Winner's Circle in this race. Cherokee Artist is another that will benefit from a fast early pace. Stonehouse has been tearing up the track, has lots of speed and is not a need to lead type. However I also believe in figure patterns and Stonehouse ran his best race last out at Hawthorne. Amazing Results is 2 for 2 at AP and 1 for 1 at the distance. Will need to step up here to compete coming 2nd off layoff could be worth a flyer at a price.
And now the HANA pool race from Canterbury Downs. An 8 furlong affair for claiming price of $10,000 for F and M 3 and up. Post Time 5:40
1. Darby Lee
3-1
9-2
11. Deb Doright
7-2
5-1
6. Fancy And Quick
4-1
6-1
10 Elegant Star
6-1
9-1
A lot of horses coming up from Turf Paradise, but I'll be going with the horse that wintered in FL. Darby Lee is 2 for 6 on the CBY turf course. 11. Deb Doright breaks from the outside and I think Ry Eikleberry was the leading rider at Tup, but she is yet to get off the schnied in 6 turf tries. 6. FAQ is another Tup immigrant drops a level here but is winless in 9 turf attempts. 10. Elegant star has one win in open claiming co. and a win on the CBY turf, but seems a notch below the others
That does it for today. Remember the rules. Play only the overlays. If there are 3 or more overlays it is probable I am more clueless than usual so don't play my picks, I won't. If there are 2 overlays, play the lowest odds horse. If there are two overlays at odds greater than 8-1 then you can play both and Dutch them if you wish. The first set of odds is what I consider fair. I don't want fair. The 2nd set is fair +50%. Gives me lots of room to be wrong.
Good Luck, enjoy the day and get some winners.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Pub Handicapper Picks for May 16
Well here they are for those who want a good laugh. I sure whiffed on the Black-Eyed Susan. When Hooh Why was scratched every thing was changed, and I should've just passed the race. Haven't seen anything about a HANA in the pool race this week, so I guess were skipping that one as we did for Derby day.
Well, here goes nothing
Pim R8 Hirsch Jacobs Stakes, G3 for 3 year olds
#1 Taqarub
3-1
7-2
#2 Everyday Heroes
7-2
5-1
#7 Nuclear Wayne
9-2
7-1
#8 Yano
5-1
8-1
Speed, Speed, nothing but speed. Give inside posts advantage over outside, but its really anybody's race
Race 10 Maryland Sprind Hdcp G3 for 3 and up
#8 Ravalo
2-1
3-1
#5 Ah Day
4-1
6-1
#2 Grand Traverse
6-1
9-1
#3 Silver Edition
6-1
9-1
#8 Ravalo is 8 for 16 at the distance with last 10 all against stakes company. #5 Recent stakes winner and 5 of 7 at the distance with lots of backclass. Ignore last race at mile #2 Grand Traverse has been showing good form of late, but beware of high speed figure set over sloppy sealed track in last at Chuchill #3 Winner of the 50k Hot Springs hdcp at Oaklawn could step up with Leparoux
Race 11 Dixie Stakes G2 for 3 and up
#3 Parading
3-1
9-2
#4 Kiss The Kid
7-2
5-1
#1 Proudinsky
4-1
6-1
#7 Wesley
6-1
9-1
#3 Comes into race off a nice G3 win and has had a little more time to recover than #1. #4 has won 3 of his last 4 and rarely misfires. He is well rested and should run well here. #1 Proudinsky just bumped heads 2 weeks ago with arguably the best older turf horse in N.A. (Einstein). He will be a factor if he can come back quickly off that race. #7 Had a nice tune-up opening weekend at CRC, but this field is much better than the one he faced in Florida.
R12 The Preakness G1 3 yo's
P# 12th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#9 Pioneeror The Nile
3-1
9-2
#3 Musket Man
7-2
5-1
#5 Friesan Fire
4-1
6-1
#1 Big Drama
5-1
8-1
I'm deliberately ignoring, admittedly perhaps to my detriment, the publicity horse Rachel Alexandra and the Cinderella horse Mine That Bird for reasons I've already discussed. I think Big Drama could run a Big Race here although, supposedly, history regarding fresh horses coming into the Preakness would suggest not. Still, he should be a pace factor and make RA run a little harder than maybe she is used to early.
Well, here goes nothing
Pim R8 Hirsch Jacobs Stakes, G3 for 3 year olds
#1 Taqarub
3-1
7-2
#2 Everyday Heroes
7-2
5-1
#7 Nuclear Wayne
9-2
7-1
#8 Yano
5-1
8-1
Speed, Speed, nothing but speed. Give inside posts advantage over outside, but its really anybody's race
Race 10 Maryland Sprind Hdcp G3 for 3 and up
#8 Ravalo
2-1
3-1
#5 Ah Day
4-1
6-1
#2 Grand Traverse
6-1
9-1
#3 Silver Edition
6-1
9-1
#8 Ravalo is 8 for 16 at the distance with last 10 all against stakes company. #5 Recent stakes winner and 5 of 7 at the distance with lots of backclass. Ignore last race at mile #2 Grand Traverse has been showing good form of late, but beware of high speed figure set over sloppy sealed track in last at Chuchill #3 Winner of the 50k Hot Springs hdcp at Oaklawn could step up with Leparoux
Race 11 Dixie Stakes G2 for 3 and up
#3 Parading
3-1
9-2
#4 Kiss The Kid
7-2
5-1
#1 Proudinsky
4-1
6-1
#7 Wesley
6-1
9-1
#3 Comes into race off a nice G3 win and has had a little more time to recover than #1. #4 has won 3 of his last 4 and rarely misfires. He is well rested and should run well here. #1 Proudinsky just bumped heads 2 weeks ago with arguably the best older turf horse in N.A. (Einstein). He will be a factor if he can come back quickly off that race. #7 Had a nice tune-up opening weekend at CRC, but this field is much better than the one he faced in Florida.
R12 The Preakness G1 3 yo's
P# 12th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#9 Pioneeror The Nile
3-1
9-2
#3 Musket Man
7-2
5-1
#5 Friesan Fire
4-1
6-1
#1 Big Drama
5-1
8-1
I'm deliberately ignoring, admittedly perhaps to my detriment, the publicity horse Rachel Alexandra and the Cinderella horse Mine That Bird for reasons I've already discussed. I think Big Drama could run a Big Race here although, supposedly, history regarding fresh horses coming into the Preakness would suggest not. Still, he should be a pace factor and make RA run a little harder than maybe she is used to early.
Saturday, May 9, 2009
New Contest
Well, it's a new Public Handicappers contest and I have recovered from the shock of the stunning derby upset and am ready to offer up some new wisdom for this week's Public Handicapper races. I will also give you my thoughts on the HANA Get In The Pool race (Race 6 @ Prarie Meadows) if I get a chance later.
You will notice my last post got a comment from my wise-ass son who couldn't resist the opportunity to point out the Weasel's recent cold streak. Anyone who plays this game long enough knows how it goes, and I'll keep on plugging away. Now to the races
Philadelphia, Race 8: Lyman H 75k for Pa. Breds 3 and up.
#9 Wincat
3-1
9-2
#7 Movin Out
7-2
5-1
#5 Whistle Pig
9-2
7-1
#2 Secretintelligence
5-1
8-1
In many ways a rerun of Novembers 75k Yankeefair for statebreds with 5 of 9 contenders having run in that race. Going outside that race for the top two contenders. #9 Wincat, 3rd place finisher in the G2 2008 Swale Stakes at GP, is a surprising 12-1 in the ML. Last race was on an off track, if we can excuse that performance, Wincat's previous two indicate Wincat may be sitting on a big race. #7 Movin Out has no stakes experience but has done nothing but get better as a 4 year old. If Movin Out can just run back to his last race, it will be good enough. #5 Whistle Pig seems to run the same race time after time. He's not going to surprise anyone with a monster effort, but he is good enough to win this race. #2 Secretintelligence is the speed of the speed in this race with an E8 Quirin fig. No wins at the distance suggests 7 furlongs may be about 1 furlong too much, but could steal the race if not pressed too hard. Keep in mind for those exactas and trifectas.
Next we go north of the border to Woodbine Race Course New Providence Stakes 125K for registered Ontario Breds 3 and up
?
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""NHMJuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu=\
The above is editorial comment made by Max the Jack Russell puppy when I had to answer the door to let the exterminator in.
#6 Stuck In Traffic
2-1
3-1
#3 Drunken Love
5-2
4-1
#2 Legal Move
4-1
6-1
Wasn't thrilled with what appears to be a mediocre field #6 Stuck in Traffic doesn't get much respect with an 8-1 ML; however, he's a veteran and winner of this type of race as a 3yo and there isn't really anyone else here that stands out. Stuck in Traffic is a winner 2 of 3 at the distance and 4 of 11 at WO #3 Drunken Love is not as accomplished as the top choice but has consistent Brisnet figs in the mid to upper 90's, is 4 for 8 at the distance and 5 for 14 at WO and would not be a surprise #2 Legal Move is kind of a throw in because I feel obligated to offer at least 3 choices. Legal Move likes the distance, 7 of 13, and is nearly 50 %, 9 of 20 on Woodbine's surface.
Now to the Belmont at Elmont and the Peter Pan Stakes G2 For 3yo's
#6 Imperial Council
2-1
3-1
#2 Hello Broadway
5-2
4-1
#3 Charitable Man
4-1
6-1
#6 Imperial Council won't have to worry about I Want Revenge any longer. At first I was leaning to the 2nd choice, but I reconsidered and decided to go with the home team, Edgar Prado in this race #2 Hello Broadway, winner last out at Keeneland returns to New York and brings Garrett Gomez with him. Hello Broadway always seems to be well regarded at the windows. #3 Charitable Man, winner of the G2 Futurity at this track comes 2nd off layoff for Kiaran McLaughlin and Alan Garcia. I think we'll see a much improved effort this time out
And finally down to Joisey for the 70k Decathalon Stakes for 3yo's and up
#4 Unwritten
#1 He's So Chic
#5 Acting Zippy
Very contetious race in which any of the three choice could win. #4 Unwritten is the speed to catch with an E7 Quirin fig. #1 He's So Chic comes home to a track and a distance that has been very good for him and #5 Acting Zippy ships in from Delaware where he demolished the contenders in a similar type race while setting a personal best Brisnet figure. Look for him to stalk the pace and try to take over if he has enough left. I can't really separate the 3 but would play whoever has the longest odds.
I don't know if I'm going to get to play any of these today or not. It depends on what I'm doing. This morning I'm driving down to Coral Gables as the school year is almost over and I have to move my wise-ass son out of his dorm room. I should make him walk back. I'll put in the Prarie Meadows race as soon as I can. Since that race is much later tonight, I probably will get a chance to participate. Maybe we can get this cold streak turned around.
And now for HANA's Get In The Pool Race #6 From Prairie Meadows
#2 T. C.'s Sweetie
3-1
9-2
#1 Courtney J
7-2
5-1
#3 Ekberg
9-2
7-1
#8 Shhh Hush Hush
5-1
8-1
#2 T. C.'s Sweetie comes home from Hawthorne where she's been facing better. Projected pace scenario sets race up for closing type. #1 Courtney J finished 2nd last out after swinging 6 wide, should be around at the end with a better trip. #3 Beat better at this track as a 3yo, but will have to contend with the other speed in the race #8 Shhh Hush Hush who has had good success at PRM. If either of these gets loose it could be over.
You will notice my last post got a comment from my wise-ass son who couldn't resist the opportunity to point out the Weasel's recent cold streak. Anyone who plays this game long enough knows how it goes, and I'll keep on plugging away. Now to the races
Philadelphia, Race 8: Lyman H 75k for Pa. Breds 3 and up.
#9 Wincat
3-1
9-2
#7 Movin Out
7-2
5-1
#5 Whistle Pig
9-2
7-1
#2 Secretintelligence
5-1
8-1
In many ways a rerun of Novembers 75k Yankeefair for statebreds with 5 of 9 contenders having run in that race. Going outside that race for the top two contenders. #9 Wincat, 3rd place finisher in the G2 2008 Swale Stakes at GP, is a surprising 12-1 in the ML. Last race was on an off track, if we can excuse that performance, Wincat's previous two indicate Wincat may be sitting on a big race. #7 Movin Out has no stakes experience but has done nothing but get better as a 4 year old. If Movin Out can just run back to his last race, it will be good enough. #5 Whistle Pig seems to run the same race time after time. He's not going to surprise anyone with a monster effort, but he is good enough to win this race. #2 Secretintelligence is the speed of the speed in this race with an E8 Quirin fig. No wins at the distance suggests 7 furlongs may be about 1 furlong too much, but could steal the race if not pressed too hard. Keep in mind for those exactas and trifectas.
Next we go north of the border to Woodbine Race Course New Providence Stakes 125K for registered Ontario Breds 3 and up
?
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""NHMJuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu=\
The above is editorial comment made by Max the Jack Russell puppy when I had to answer the door to let the exterminator in.
#6 Stuck In Traffic
2-1
3-1
#3 Drunken Love
5-2
4-1
#2 Legal Move
4-1
6-1
Wasn't thrilled with what appears to be a mediocre field #6 Stuck in Traffic doesn't get much respect with an 8-1 ML; however, he's a veteran and winner of this type of race as a 3yo and there isn't really anyone else here that stands out. Stuck in Traffic is a winner 2 of 3 at the distance and 4 of 11 at WO #3 Drunken Love is not as accomplished as the top choice but has consistent Brisnet figs in the mid to upper 90's, is 4 for 8 at the distance and 5 for 14 at WO and would not be a surprise #2 Legal Move is kind of a throw in because I feel obligated to offer at least 3 choices. Legal Move likes the distance, 7 of 13, and is nearly 50 %, 9 of 20 on Woodbine's surface.
Now to the Belmont at Elmont and the Peter Pan Stakes G2 For 3yo's
#6 Imperial Council
2-1
3-1
#2 Hello Broadway
5-2
4-1
#3 Charitable Man
4-1
6-1
#6 Imperial Council won't have to worry about I Want Revenge any longer. At first I was leaning to the 2nd choice, but I reconsidered and decided to go with the home team, Edgar Prado in this race #2 Hello Broadway, winner last out at Keeneland returns to New York and brings Garrett Gomez with him. Hello Broadway always seems to be well regarded at the windows. #3 Charitable Man, winner of the G2 Futurity at this track comes 2nd off layoff for Kiaran McLaughlin and Alan Garcia. I think we'll see a much improved effort this time out
And finally down to Joisey for the 70k Decathalon Stakes for 3yo's and up
#4 Unwritten
#1 He's So Chic
#5 Acting Zippy
Very contetious race in which any of the three choice could win. #4 Unwritten is the speed to catch with an E7 Quirin fig. #1 He's So Chic comes home to a track and a distance that has been very good for him and #5 Acting Zippy ships in from Delaware where he demolished the contenders in a similar type race while setting a personal best Brisnet figure. Look for him to stalk the pace and try to take over if he has enough left. I can't really separate the 3 but would play whoever has the longest odds.
I don't know if I'm going to get to play any of these today or not. It depends on what I'm doing. This morning I'm driving down to Coral Gables as the school year is almost over and I have to move my wise-ass son out of his dorm room. I should make him walk back. I'll put in the Prarie Meadows race as soon as I can. Since that race is much later tonight, I probably will get a chance to participate. Maybe we can get this cold streak turned around.
And now for HANA's Get In The Pool Race #6 From Prairie Meadows
#2 T. C.'s Sweetie
3-1
9-2
#1 Courtney J
7-2
5-1
#3 Ekberg
9-2
7-1
#8 Shhh Hush Hush
5-1
8-1
#2 T. C.'s Sweetie comes home from Hawthorne where she's been facing better. Projected pace scenario sets race up for closing type. #1 Courtney J finished 2nd last out after swinging 6 wide, should be around at the end with a better trip. #3 Beat better at this track as a 3yo, but will have to contend with the other speed in the race #8 Shhh Hush Hush who has had good success at PRM. If either of these gets loose it could be over.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Some Saturday Picks
No time for chit chat. Need to help out with some housework to maintain domestic tranquility before I go to CRC for some live racing later this afternoon. Thought I'd give you some picks to chew on before I leave.
First in line is the HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) the 100k Pretty Jenny Stakes for 3yo Fillies restricted to Illinois breds from Hawthorne Park in Chicago.
I have to admit that I dont really have a good feel for this race so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle and looked for horses making 3yo debut after showing promise as 2yo's. Here are the picks. I will most likely only make a token wager on this one just for the cause.
P# 6th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Miss Fontana
3-1
9-2
#10 Happy Henrietta
7-2
5-1
#3 Tessies Tilbury
4-1
6-1
#9 Cumulonimble
6-1
9-1
The HANA Race of the week and I have to admit that I really don't have a good feel for this matchup of Ill breds, so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle of looking for horses that showed promise as 2 yo's making their 3 yo debut. #2 fits that bill winning her 2 yo debut and a State bred stakes before being put on the shelf in Aug last year. Inez Karlsson gets back on. #10 also fits the profile in winning 2yo debut and a state bred stakes in December, comes back after a 4 month freshening. #3 is one for two and could keep on improving with a Hi % jockey aboard and 2nd place OCn1x effort against non state breds. #9 hasn't won yet, but has been in the money 3 of 3 as a 2yo including 2nd in state restricted race and is making 3yo debut. Brandon Meier made the right decision in coming back to Chicago.
Opening Saturday at Calder Race Course and 4 stakes make the opening weekend card including two Graded stakes. I was disappointed to see they were not running with their 2:30 Friday post times this year. I've really enjoyed leaving work on Fridays and catching the late half of the card. I will miss that a lot. I can still do the simulcast from some other track, but its just not the same as seeing real horses.
The 7th race today is the 1 1/2 Mile (turf) LaPrevoyante Handicap-G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.
P# 7th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Criticism
1-1
3-2
#2 Long Approach
5-1
8-1
#3 Icon Project
6-1
9-1
#4 2 time G3 Marathon winner is definitely the one to beat #2 Hi % turf jockey Desormeaux travels south from Ky to team up with Hi % trainer Johnathan Sheppard, not for nothing. #3 Wolfson comes back to the track he dominates and Trujillo rides at track he dominated 2 years ago. Wolfy always has a shot a Calder
Next is the 1 mile 70 yards Emergency Nurse Stakes-Purse 55k for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
P# 8th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Annabill
6-5
9-5
#7 Eclisse
7-2
5-1
#2 Tiara Di Oro
6-1
9-1
#6 The other Wolfson gets his chance to shine here. Annabill wins at a near 50% clip at CRC is 4 of 9 at the distance, is a stakes winner and comes into the race fresh. #7 Marty Wolfson's horse is the only speed in the race and may be able to steal it on the front end. #2 The 2nd Marty Wolfson entry in the race is lightly raced and showing improvement in its last 3 races.
Race 9 is the 1 Mile (Turf) Miami Mile Handicap G3 for 3 and up.
P# 9th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Rogue Victory
3-1
9-2
#6 Mambo Meister
7-2
5-1
#1 Vanquisher
4-1
6-1
#10 Baron Von Tap
6-1
9-1
I'm expecting that Finallymadeit, Dream Maestro, and Motovato, will scratch out of this race and move to the 10 on dirt where they are also entered, but I have not yet been able to confirm this.#2 Does anyone think Desormeaux is giving up opening Sat. at CD to lose in S. Fla #2 has won 3 of 9 and his running lines look like he's getting ready to pop a big one. #6 is a stakes winner and 1 for three on CRC Turf. Manny Cruz gets back on the Meister. #1 Another tough customer, Stakes winner that is 6 for 17 on the sod with a High % Trainer. #10 may do nothing and may be the upset special of the day. Veteran turf specialist (8yo) with loads of back class has been revived since moving to Ziadie's barn 4 races ago.
And finally the 1 Mile 70 yards Sumter Stakes 55k for 3 and up.
P# 10th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Dream Maestro
3-1
9-2
#1 Hey Byrn
7-2
5-1
#7 Motovato
4-1
6-1
#8 Finallymadeit
6-1
9-1
#6 Finally gets to turn the tables on the 8 in a race where the 8 should face more of a pace challenge from Hal's My Hope and Honey Honey Honey. #1 comes in fresh off a turf effort where it became obvious he didn't belong. The rest should do him good and expect return to January form #7 Elvis and Marty team up again and this is another that has the look of a horse moving forward, expect a big effort here. #8 Negrete keeps putting this one out there every 21 days and this one keeps running; however others in this race may show a greater willingness to challenge this need to leader for the early fractions this time. Still this is a gritty horse that can't be totally discounted.
Note as of this writing the 3 dual entered horses have not scratched from either race. Depending on how the scratches fall out, all of the above for races 9 and 10 could be horse manure.
First in line is the HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) the 100k Pretty Jenny Stakes for 3yo Fillies restricted to Illinois breds from Hawthorne Park in Chicago.
I have to admit that I dont really have a good feel for this race so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle and looked for horses making 3yo debut after showing promise as 2yo's. Here are the picks. I will most likely only make a token wager on this one just for the cause.
P# 6th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Miss Fontana
3-1
9-2
#10 Happy Henrietta
7-2
5-1
#3 Tessies Tilbury
4-1
6-1
#9 Cumulonimble
6-1
9-1
The HANA Race of the week and I have to admit that I really don't have a good feel for this matchup of Ill breds, so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle of looking for horses that showed promise as 2 yo's making their 3 yo debut. #2 fits that bill winning her 2 yo debut and a State bred stakes before being put on the shelf in Aug last year. Inez Karlsson gets back on. #10 also fits the profile in winning 2yo debut and a state bred stakes in December, comes back after a 4 month freshening. #3 is one for two and could keep on improving with a Hi % jockey aboard and 2nd place OCn1x effort against non state breds. #9 hasn't won yet, but has been in the money 3 of 3 as a 2yo including 2nd in state restricted race and is making 3yo debut. Brandon Meier made the right decision in coming back to Chicago.
Opening Saturday at Calder Race Course and 4 stakes make the opening weekend card including two Graded stakes. I was disappointed to see they were not running with their 2:30 Friday post times this year. I've really enjoyed leaving work on Fridays and catching the late half of the card. I will miss that a lot. I can still do the simulcast from some other track, but its just not the same as seeing real horses.
The 7th race today is the 1 1/2 Mile (turf) LaPrevoyante Handicap-G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.
P# 7th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Criticism
1-1
3-2
#2 Long Approach
5-1
8-1
#3 Icon Project
6-1
9-1
#4 2 time G3 Marathon winner is definitely the one to beat #2 Hi % turf jockey Desormeaux travels south from Ky to team up with Hi % trainer Johnathan Sheppard, not for nothing. #3 Wolfson comes back to the track he dominates and Trujillo rides at track he dominated 2 years ago. Wolfy always has a shot a Calder
Next is the 1 mile 70 yards Emergency Nurse Stakes-Purse 55k for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
P# 8th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Annabill
6-5
9-5
#7 Eclisse
7-2
5-1
#2 Tiara Di Oro
6-1
9-1
#6 The other Wolfson gets his chance to shine here. Annabill wins at a near 50% clip at CRC is 4 of 9 at the distance, is a stakes winner and comes into the race fresh. #7 Marty Wolfson's horse is the only speed in the race and may be able to steal it on the front end. #2 The 2nd Marty Wolfson entry in the race is lightly raced and showing improvement in its last 3 races.
Race 9 is the 1 Mile (Turf) Miami Mile Handicap G3 for 3 and up.
P# 9th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Rogue Victory
3-1
9-2
#6 Mambo Meister
7-2
5-1
#1 Vanquisher
4-1
6-1
#10 Baron Von Tap
6-1
9-1
I'm expecting that Finallymadeit, Dream Maestro, and Motovato, will scratch out of this race and move to the 10 on dirt where they are also entered, but I have not yet been able to confirm this.#2 Does anyone think Desormeaux is giving up opening Sat. at CD to lose in S. Fla #2 has won 3 of 9 and his running lines look like he's getting ready to pop a big one. #6 is a stakes winner and 1 for three on CRC Turf. Manny Cruz gets back on the Meister. #1 Another tough customer, Stakes winner that is 6 for 17 on the sod with a High % Trainer. #10 may do nothing and may be the upset special of the day. Veteran turf specialist (8yo) with loads of back class has been revived since moving to Ziadie's barn 4 races ago.
And finally the 1 Mile 70 yards Sumter Stakes 55k for 3 and up.
P# 10th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Dream Maestro
3-1
9-2
#1 Hey Byrn
7-2
5-1
#7 Motovato
4-1
6-1
#8 Finallymadeit
6-1
9-1
#6 Finally gets to turn the tables on the 8 in a race where the 8 should face more of a pace challenge from Hal's My Hope and Honey Honey Honey. #1 comes in fresh off a turf effort where it became obvious he didn't belong. The rest should do him good and expect return to January form #7 Elvis and Marty team up again and this is another that has the look of a horse moving forward, expect a big effort here. #8 Negrete keeps putting this one out there every 21 days and this one keeps running; however others in this race may show a greater willingness to challenge this need to leader for the early fractions this time. Still this is a gritty horse that can't be totally discounted.
Note as of this writing the 3 dual entered horses have not scratched from either race. Depending on how the scratches fall out, all of the above for races 9 and 10 could be horse manure.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Felonius Wagering
This comes under the category of learning something new every day. I've just learned today that the HANA race of the week is Saturday, Race 6 at Hawthorne through the following letter.
You may have heard or read that Turf Paradise was to be the target track this Saturday for the HANA Get In The Pool race. Unfortunately, many horseplayers have expressed some big concerns about the law in Arizona which makes it a felony to use an ADW. Many players were very uncomfortable with this. At the HANA conference call Wednesday night it was discussed and decided that we would NOT bet Turf Paradise because of this law.We will be doing R6 at Hawthorne this Saturday 4/25/2009 instead. This is a stakes race with an eleven horse field with a morning line favorite at 4-1. NICE AND JUICY. We also decided to target the RACE and not a specific pool. This way you can handicap the race as you normally would and bet the pool (WPS, Exacta, Tri, Super, etc.) where you see the most value.GOOD LUCK ON SATURDAY.Sincerely,Your HANA Team
I wish they had given more details regarding this absurd law. As I have been known to place a wager at Turf Paradise from the comfort of my living room now and again, I was concerned that I had committed some kind of vile, criminal act in the process. At least now, as I understand it, I'm only a criminal if I placed that wager at some location other than an OTB or the track in Arizona, so I guess I have not violated the law after all. Good, I'm not giving the money back.
Right now, if it were not for ADW, I would be personna non grata from racing at the moment due to the prescence of that new Jack Russell in my house. He demands your attention! I can't even handicap a race at home right now. So each day I have been dutifully downloading a form and finding a race or two at a western track like Hollywood, Golden Gate, or, dare I say it, Turf Paradise and playing the game when I get home from work. As you can see by my little box on the left, this tactic is working out pretty well for me. Thanks Patrick!
Today I scored with a double longshot, each horse at 11-1, exacta at Hollywood in race 3. The funny thing is, I handicapped this race during lunch with no idea of the who the swamis at TVG would like. They, the swamis, like the one horse and so did I as he appeared to be the speed on the rail, and for some reason they also liked the 5 horse. I didn't consider the 5 to be a contender because he had been losing pretty regularly to claimers and the others seemed to have been racing against better. I also rejected the 2 because he had been vanned off last out and even Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert couldn't lure me to that one. The 3 I had rejected because his speed figures just didn't measure up to the others, so unless everyone else faltered and the 3 got better, there was no way for him to win. That left me with the 1,4,6, and 7. The one opened at even money and ended up around 8/5. Underlay, no play. The 4 opened at 5 to 1. The 4 was my 4th choice and I needed 9/1 to play him to win. The 6 and 7 both opened at 14-1 so I licked my chops and got ready to split my win wager and box 6,7/1,4,6,7.
Then the TVG people started talking about the race and they almost talked me off the 4 in favor of the 5 until I referred back to my notes on the race and reminded myself what I didn't like about the 5 and what I liked about the 4. As race time approached the 6 had dropped to underlay status as the 4 had steadily drifted up and was lingering at 8-1, still not enough for a wager. The 7 was pretty solid at 11-1 so he was my huckleberry for the win wager and the key horse in the exacta box in which I also included the 5 as a concession to the wisdom of the TVG commentators. After entering my bet in the TBA spreadsheet I turned back to the odds and saw that the 4 horse had now dropped to 11-1. Had I been gifted with the ability to see the future, this knowledge would've changed my bet, for the better, but I now I had to live with the hand I'd dealt myself.
Well not only the 1, but the 2 and the 5 all raced for the lead and set some torrid fractions. The 6 trailed the lead group by about 3 lengths with the 7 a length further back. The 4 must've been somewhere in the back. As they came around the turn the 6 and 7 both made their runs and over took the lead group at the top of the stretch. I thought that was the way it would finish until I caught the 4 flying down the stretch. Now I was concerned because if the 7 finishes 3rd, I don't get paid. Fortunately, the 3 overtook the 6 and finished 2nd to the 4 turning my $1 exacta (actually $8 total in the exacta) into $112.20. Not a bad way to spend your lunch hour I'd say.
May the horse be with you
You may have heard or read that Turf Paradise was to be the target track this Saturday for the HANA Get In The Pool race. Unfortunately, many horseplayers have expressed some big concerns about the law in Arizona which makes it a felony to use an ADW. Many players were very uncomfortable with this. At the HANA conference call Wednesday night it was discussed and decided that we would NOT bet Turf Paradise because of this law.We will be doing R6 at Hawthorne this Saturday 4/25/2009 instead. This is a stakes race with an eleven horse field with a morning line favorite at 4-1. NICE AND JUICY. We also decided to target the RACE and not a specific pool. This way you can handicap the race as you normally would and bet the pool (WPS, Exacta, Tri, Super, etc.) where you see the most value.GOOD LUCK ON SATURDAY.Sincerely,Your HANA Team
I wish they had given more details regarding this absurd law. As I have been known to place a wager at Turf Paradise from the comfort of my living room now and again, I was concerned that I had committed some kind of vile, criminal act in the process. At least now, as I understand it, I'm only a criminal if I placed that wager at some location other than an OTB or the track in Arizona, so I guess I have not violated the law after all. Good, I'm not giving the money back.
Right now, if it were not for ADW, I would be personna non grata from racing at the moment due to the prescence of that new Jack Russell in my house. He demands your attention! I can't even handicap a race at home right now. So each day I have been dutifully downloading a form and finding a race or two at a western track like Hollywood, Golden Gate, or, dare I say it, Turf Paradise and playing the game when I get home from work. As you can see by my little box on the left, this tactic is working out pretty well for me. Thanks Patrick!
Today I scored with a double longshot, each horse at 11-1, exacta at Hollywood in race 3. The funny thing is, I handicapped this race during lunch with no idea of the who the swamis at TVG would like. They, the swamis, like the one horse and so did I as he appeared to be the speed on the rail, and for some reason they also liked the 5 horse. I didn't consider the 5 to be a contender because he had been losing pretty regularly to claimers and the others seemed to have been racing against better. I also rejected the 2 because he had been vanned off last out and even Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert couldn't lure me to that one. The 3 I had rejected because his speed figures just didn't measure up to the others, so unless everyone else faltered and the 3 got better, there was no way for him to win. That left me with the 1,4,6, and 7. The one opened at even money and ended up around 8/5. Underlay, no play. The 4 opened at 5 to 1. The 4 was my 4th choice and I needed 9/1 to play him to win. The 6 and 7 both opened at 14-1 so I licked my chops and got ready to split my win wager and box 6,7/1,4,6,7.
Then the TVG people started talking about the race and they almost talked me off the 4 in favor of the 5 until I referred back to my notes on the race and reminded myself what I didn't like about the 5 and what I liked about the 4. As race time approached the 6 had dropped to underlay status as the 4 had steadily drifted up and was lingering at 8-1, still not enough for a wager. The 7 was pretty solid at 11-1 so he was my huckleberry for the win wager and the key horse in the exacta box in which I also included the 5 as a concession to the wisdom of the TVG commentators. After entering my bet in the TBA spreadsheet I turned back to the odds and saw that the 4 horse had now dropped to 11-1. Had I been gifted with the ability to see the future, this knowledge would've changed my bet, for the better, but I now I had to live with the hand I'd dealt myself.
Well not only the 1, but the 2 and the 5 all raced for the lead and set some torrid fractions. The 6 trailed the lead group by about 3 lengths with the 7 a length further back. The 4 must've been somewhere in the back. As they came around the turn the 6 and 7 both made their runs and over took the lead group at the top of the stretch. I thought that was the way it would finish until I caught the 4 flying down the stretch. Now I was concerned because if the 7 finishes 3rd, I don't get paid. Fortunately, the 3 overtook the 6 and finished 2nd to the 4 turning my $1 exacta (actually $8 total in the exacta) into $112.20. Not a bad way to spend your lunch hour I'd say.
May the horse be with you
Monday, April 13, 2009
Mountaineer Race 3: Get In the Pool
The HANA get in the pool race for tomorrow is race 3, a 5k Claimer for non-winners of 2 lifetime. I think Mark Cramer would call this a lesser of evils race, but there could be some overlap into the contentious race category as the field certainly seems evenly matched. Remember the idea is to flood the exacta pool in this race so put your thinking caps on.
And speaking of my favorite authors. J. J. Tuttle continues to trash my review on Amazon while I continue to report positively on a handicapping angle he made a special effort to point out to me. Namely play the longest shot in the short field a short field defined as seven or fewer.
Now, forgive my tardiness in reporting this bomb, but as I said, I was distracted and under the weather last week and not really keeping up with the racing world. However, racing went on without me, and on April 9th at Gulfstream Park the 2nd race saw a 67.9 to 1 shot wire the field.
Having now updated my spreadsheet the tally is as follows. For the Gulfstream 2009 season to date there have been 176 races with 7 or fewer runners. 10 of those races were won by the longest shot in the field. 10/176 = a 5.68% hit rate and more importantly, a $2 investment on each wager totaling $352.00 would've yielded $537.80 or $0.53 for every $1 wagered. With, I think, 8 racing days left in the season it seems safe to declare this a winning angle for Gulfstream Park 2009.
I have begun tracking Woodbine, since I like watching the little chiclets run around and will follow my home track of Calder when it starts up to see if this continues to be a profitable angle. So far, after 13 qualifying races at Woodbine, there have been no winners, but it's still early.
"May the horse be with you."
And speaking of my favorite authors. J. J. Tuttle continues to trash my review on Amazon while I continue to report positively on a handicapping angle he made a special effort to point out to me. Namely play the longest shot in the short field a short field defined as seven or fewer.
Now, forgive my tardiness in reporting this bomb, but as I said, I was distracted and under the weather last week and not really keeping up with the racing world. However, racing went on without me, and on April 9th at Gulfstream Park the 2nd race saw a 67.9 to 1 shot wire the field.
Having now updated my spreadsheet the tally is as follows. For the Gulfstream 2009 season to date there have been 176 races with 7 or fewer runners. 10 of those races were won by the longest shot in the field. 10/176 = a 5.68% hit rate and more importantly, a $2 investment on each wager totaling $352.00 would've yielded $537.80 or $0.53 for every $1 wagered. With, I think, 8 racing days left in the season it seems safe to declare this a winning angle for Gulfstream Park 2009.
I have begun tracking Woodbine, since I like watching the little chiclets run around and will follow my home track of Calder when it starts up to see if this continues to be a profitable angle. So far, after 13 qualifying races at Woodbine, there have been no winners, but it's still early.
"May the horse be with you."
Sunday, April 12, 2009
New Arrival
It's been an unusual lag from my last post. I've had a cold this week that has kept me feeling pretty run down. Hard to handicap when you're feeling run down. But the main deterrent to my writing is a lack of time due to a new arrival in my family. A lively 6-week old Jack Russell Terrier named Max. All puppies are very demanding on your time, and, as a breed, Jack's are particularly demanding and require a lot of personal attention. The good side of this is I am going to have to be more selective in the races I choose to handicap. The bad news is that I may have to curtail some of my track time. There are always trade-offs. Thank the gods for Twinspires.
Yesterday, I was feeling a little better, so between trips to the back yard to "go potty" I managed to handicap the 4 stakes races at Keeneland, with some good success as it turned out.
I just missed in the Grade 3 Shakertown backing Chamberlain Bridge @ 5-1. I thought 5-1 was a pretty good price on CB. I tossed his last race at Tampa figuring that he didn't care for the surface at Tampa. Florida Turf courses, especially at the 2nd tier courses such as Calder and Tampa can be much different than the type at other tracks such as the Fair Grounds Chamberlain Bridge had shipped from. Even Gulfstream's Turf course has been running like the Florida Turnpike because of the general lack of rain we've had this winter. I thought CB would bounce back after that effort and give a good account of himself which he did finishing a game 3rd behind Cannonball and the winner Heroes Reward.
The pay off race was the G2 Commonwealth Stakes. Hard to ignore Eternal Star with his last ten races all having triple digit Brisnet speed figures. Plus, has My Pal Charlie won anything of significance before or since his Superderby win last year? Yet he still seems to draw a lot of money. I always consider him a bet against feeling he is one of the those over-rated horses making his reputation off the result of one big win. Today was no different as Eternal Star brought home $5.60 for every dollar laid and triggered a 47.00 exacta for me.
I sat out the Grade 2 Jenny Wiley stakes figuring Forever Together just had too much of a class edge over the rest of the field and everyone would know it. I was right on both counts as Julian Leparoux hand rode Forever Together to a win that wasn't as close as the box score would indicate. Forever Together went off at even money which may have been a low priced overlay considering the circumstances. Still I like to look for those bombers that score so often on turf, and there just didn't seem to be any in this race.
Sad to say, I didn't have General Quarters in the Bluegrass as my bias against former claiming horses (ThisonesforPhil?) once again made him a toss out for me. Still, this is a great story and one that will have the television people gushing all Derby week long now that the General will run in the big show (where, incidentally, I will once again exhibit my former claiming horse bias and toss early from contention).
I didn't play the Arkansas Derby, but have to note after watching the replay that Papa Clem showed a new dimension in winning that race. One that could make him a serious contender for the roses on May 2.
And on the business side, I have to note that, once again, the Florida Horseman's Association and Twin Spires are fighting over simulcast revenue so that, once again, it seems if I want to place a bet on a race at Calder, I'll have to make the 10 minute schlep over to the track. I don't really mind as I enjoy the track, but there are times, like yesterday, when other aspects of life have to take priority and I'd just like to isolate a few races and play the home game. So, once again, the racing business factions feud among themselves and the customer is the one who winds up getting screwed. All the more reason for us horse players to organize and flex some of our own muscle in groups such as HANA.
HANA has for the last two weeks been running operation "Get In The Pool". Every Tuesday a smaller track is selected and members of HANA descend upon that track for a designated race to show how much influence HANA as an organization can have. I have to say, I think this is a brilliant idea. Two Tuesdays ago we descended upon Will Rogers Downs where we flooded the win pool of one of the races and increased the handle for that race on that day by 97.2%. Last week it was off to Tampa Bay where we nearly doubled (99.4%) the P3 Pool for races 6-7-8. This Tuesday the lucky recipient of our buycott money will be a Mountaineer exacta pool (race to be determined). By banding together as horseplayers, perhaps we can finally show the business that they ultimately need us, the paying customers, if they hope to remain viable. Join HANA, the price is right, free. And check the website for the next buycott race. http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/
Yesterday, I was feeling a little better, so between trips to the back yard to "go potty" I managed to handicap the 4 stakes races at Keeneland, with some good success as it turned out.
I just missed in the Grade 3 Shakertown backing Chamberlain Bridge @ 5-1. I thought 5-1 was a pretty good price on CB. I tossed his last race at Tampa figuring that he didn't care for the surface at Tampa. Florida Turf courses, especially at the 2nd tier courses such as Calder and Tampa can be much different than the type at other tracks such as the Fair Grounds Chamberlain Bridge had shipped from. Even Gulfstream's Turf course has been running like the Florida Turnpike because of the general lack of rain we've had this winter. I thought CB would bounce back after that effort and give a good account of himself which he did finishing a game 3rd behind Cannonball and the winner Heroes Reward.
The pay off race was the G2 Commonwealth Stakes. Hard to ignore Eternal Star with his last ten races all having triple digit Brisnet speed figures. Plus, has My Pal Charlie won anything of significance before or since his Superderby win last year? Yet he still seems to draw a lot of money. I always consider him a bet against feeling he is one of the those over-rated horses making his reputation off the result of one big win. Today was no different as Eternal Star brought home $5.60 for every dollar laid and triggered a 47.00 exacta for me.
I sat out the Grade 2 Jenny Wiley stakes figuring Forever Together just had too much of a class edge over the rest of the field and everyone would know it. I was right on both counts as Julian Leparoux hand rode Forever Together to a win that wasn't as close as the box score would indicate. Forever Together went off at even money which may have been a low priced overlay considering the circumstances. Still I like to look for those bombers that score so often on turf, and there just didn't seem to be any in this race.
Sad to say, I didn't have General Quarters in the Bluegrass as my bias against former claiming horses (ThisonesforPhil?) once again made him a toss out for me. Still, this is a great story and one that will have the television people gushing all Derby week long now that the General will run in the big show (where, incidentally, I will once again exhibit my former claiming horse bias and toss early from contention).
I didn't play the Arkansas Derby, but have to note after watching the replay that Papa Clem showed a new dimension in winning that race. One that could make him a serious contender for the roses on May 2.
And on the business side, I have to note that, once again, the Florida Horseman's Association and Twin Spires are fighting over simulcast revenue so that, once again, it seems if I want to place a bet on a race at Calder, I'll have to make the 10 minute schlep over to the track. I don't really mind as I enjoy the track, but there are times, like yesterday, when other aspects of life have to take priority and I'd just like to isolate a few races and play the home game. So, once again, the racing business factions feud among themselves and the customer is the one who winds up getting screwed. All the more reason for us horse players to organize and flex some of our own muscle in groups such as HANA.
HANA has for the last two weeks been running operation "Get In The Pool". Every Tuesday a smaller track is selected and members of HANA descend upon that track for a designated race to show how much influence HANA as an organization can have. I have to say, I think this is a brilliant idea. Two Tuesdays ago we descended upon Will Rogers Downs where we flooded the win pool of one of the races and increased the handle for that race on that day by 97.2%. Last week it was off to Tampa Bay where we nearly doubled (99.4%) the P3 Pool for races 6-7-8. This Tuesday the lucky recipient of our buycott money will be a Mountaineer exacta pool (race to be determined). By banding together as horseplayers, perhaps we can finally show the business that they ultimately need us, the paying customers, if they hope to remain viable. Join HANA, the price is right, free. And check the website for the next buycott race. http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/
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