Welcome back for another trip through the Public Handicapper races of the day. First a look at last Sunday's Pacific Classic from Del Mar.
Can't say I saw Richard's Kid coming, but I should have. After all with last weekend being Labor Day weekend and Jerry raising money for his kids (does he still do that?), it should have been the hunch play of the week.
Glad to see Einstein still has a big effort, and hopefully more, in him. Rail Trip also ran a good race although he couldn't quite get up in the end. I thought Colonel John had a bit of a troubled trip. Getting stuck behind horses like he was can take a lot out a runner. By the time he finally did get clear he had nothing left. Global Hunter was the only one of the contenders that didn't become some kind of a factor in the race.
But that was last week. This a brand new week with brand new races to handicap. Here we go to Delaware Park for the first race of the week the G3 Endine. A 6 furlong affair for fillies and mares 3 and up.
The Endine is a speed filled affair that really caused me to waffle back and forth a lot. You would think this race would set up nicely for a late runner, but I just don't think the two late runners in this race are good enough to get the job done. I don't even know why the #3 Iron Butterfly is in this race. She is a good claiming horse but seems out classed here. Marty Wolfson's #7 Pious Ashley disappointed her backers at 0.9/1 in and allowance at Calder last out. As much as I love to pull for Wolfson when he ships, I can't see this one winning here.
#2 Keep The Peace and #1 Sunday Geisha are to need to lead types and someone has to give. I think it will be Sunday Geisha as Keep The Peace has been showing a little more staying power recently.
#4 Lady Chace, #5 Casanova Killer, #6 Fearless Leader, and #8 Bold Union.
4 of Fearless Leader's 5 wins have come on off tracks and the forecast for today does not include rain, except for showers. If the track is wet she becomes a factor.
That leaves 3 and Bold Union is the top choice having finished 2 lengths behind the last horse to finish ahead of Rachel Alexandra, Sara Louise, last out. I do have some trepidation about her wheeling back so soon, 14 days, after that last race. However, that used to be commonplace. She should be able to sit behind the pace and take over as the others falter.
Casanova Killer is the 2nd choice to win. Jeremy Rose gets the reins and he seems to ride a lot of Klesaris winners. Casanova Killer also comes off a win in the Jenny Wade Hdcp at Penn National.
Lady Chace is choice number 3. Probably figures to benefit most from the pace scenario but may not be quite fast enough here. B.J. Hernandez, Jr. and Steve Margolis have been another potent jockey/trainer combo, so she has to figure in here somewhere.
Finally Keep The Peace will be the 4th choice. She just may go all the way, but she seems to get caught a lot judging by her 7 2nd place finishes. Still this may be her best distance and she'll be sure to get the early jump on the others.
#8 Bold Union 8-5 take 5-2
#5 Casanova Killer 6-1 take 9-1
#4 Lady Chace 6-1 take 9-1
#2 Keep The Peace 6-1 take 9-1
Next we go north of the border to Toronto and the La Prevoyante for Ontario sired 3 year old fillies at 1 mile on the turf.
Tops on the list here is the #10 Double Malt who has done this twice before against similar and in many cases the same competition. Double Malt was odds on in a field of 4 last out and figures to be the favorite again. At least, in a field of 10, maybe you can get something better than 1-2 for your money.
The 2nd choice is #1 Executive Deed who takes the blinkers off and stretches out to a mile. Passing Mood ran 2nd to the top choice 2 back in a good first turf effort and could move forward off that effort. Will likely give be overlaid if everyone pounds on Double Malt as you would expect.
The 3rd choice is #5 Koonunga Hill. Koonunga Hill showed promise as a 2 year old but has failed to move forward as a 3 year old. Her latest efforts with 3 consecutive ascending Beyer's suggest this may be a horse on the improve.
#10 Double Malt 1-1 take 3-2
#1 Executive Deed 5-1 take 8-1
#5 Koonunga Hill 6-1 take 9-1
The next race is from Belmont Park the G1 Garden City Handicap for 3 year olds at a mile and an eight on the turf.
As of this writing the race is still on the grass, but it is raining so the going will be soft. The 4 logical contenders for this race have all run well on softer turf courses which helps making this race probably the easiest one to handicap so far.
#1 Gozzip Girl is the one to beat. She is rested and has been pointed for this race after dominating the American Oaks. She was flattered in that race by Well Monied who ran well to finish 3rd next out in the Del Mar Oaks (G1).
I can't choose between #6 Shared Account and #8 Maram for 2nd choice. Both are proven on soft turf and eligible to move forward and challenge Gozzip Girl. Give them equal chances.
The 4th choice is the #9 Keertana who was just a length slower than Shared Account last out after going 4 wide in the Lake Placid. This is a tough spot for her, but she is a Grade 3 winner and has a chance to step up.
#1 Gozzip Girl 5-2 take 4-1
#6 Shared Account 4-1 take 6-1
#8 Maram 4-1 take 6-1
#9 Keertana 6-1 take 9-1
The last race, the G3 Presque Isle Downs Masters for f and m 3 and up has the potential to be the most exciting race of the day with lots of early pace and stone cold closers to take advantage.
The tough part was finding legitimate contenders with experience on all-weather surfaces. This will be the first try over Tapeta for logical contenders #2 Diamondrella and and #4 Game Face. The #5 Bear Now is 8 of 14 on sythetic surfaces, but figures to be part of the early pace scenario.
I decided that #9 Informed Decision makes the most sense as she is 4 for 4 on fake surfaces and has the stalking ability to stay close to the leaders.
If Diamondrella can handle the surface, she will be coming late and is the 2nd choice here as she comes off of a key race G1 victory over the turf at Belmont and has been resting since that race in early June.
Game Face is another with tactical speed to stay close early and only need to prove some ability on the surface to be in contention and is the 3rd choice here.
Finally, in a nod to proven ability over sythetic soil, Bear Now will be the 4th choice although I expect the anticipated pace scenario is not in her favor.
#9 Informed Decision 3-1 take 9-2
#2 Diamondrella 4-1 take 6-1
#4 Game Face 4-1 take 6-1
#5 Bear Now 6-1 take 9-1
As always, these opinions are worth exactly what you pay for them. If you think they make some sense then feel free to use them, but don't blame me if they turn out to be duds.
Enjoy the days races and good luck.
Showing posts with label Gozzip Girl. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gozzip Girl. Show all posts
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Mid-Term Report
Well, really its a 3/4 term report as 3 of the 4 races are in the books for this week. Some comments on the races so far.
United Nations Hdcp.
What the Hell was the jockey colony thinking in allowing Presious Passion an uncontested 20 length lead within the first quarter of the race! Then along the backstretch, nobody was making up any ground on Presious Passion. Maybe they couldn't ,or maybe they weren't trying yet. At any rate, by the time they did start closing the gap, it was obvious they would not catch him.
As you know, I did not have Presious Passion picked to win; however, this particular scenario is not exactly what I had envisioned. I'm not shocked the horse won. There is no denying Presious Passion is one of the leading grass horses running right now. On the bright side, the German-bred Lauro managed to be second best for some Weasel vindication. And I don't mind getting beat by Elvis Trujillo who is an old Calder favorite and deserves to do well.
Firecracker Hdcp.
In this race we got the winner right, Mr. Sydney. No great feat there. The biggest surprise to me is that he paid 2-1 as I thought he might go a little lower. The Weasel play in this race was Tizdejavu at 9-1. Placed 2nd at the 3/4 pole, it looked as if there was a possibility he could move forward and go on to win, but he flattened out and was not a factor coming home.
Suburban Hdcp.
The Weasel managed to get this one right with the top two finishers albeit in the wrong order. That's OK as the Weasel play in this race was Dry Martini at 10-1. I do hope you got that one. The funny thing was that originally I had made Dry Martini the top choice, but, upon further thought put Asiatic Boy on top. That's what you get for thinking too much.
That leaves todays American Oaks from Hollywood. Beyond Gozzip Girl, I don't have a very good feel for this race. Take that under advisement if you use any of my opinions in your own handicapping decisions.
A word about the Handicapping the Handicapper project. I am approaching the idea in two ways at the moment. The ways have been chosen largely based on convenience. I have been following the betting pool selections for Calder Race Course since I play a lot of races there. One thing I've learned is that you play against the favorite in claiming races at your own peril at Calder as the Collective gets these right at about a 50% clip since I've been paying attention. The Collective is 37% accurate on the top choice in Maiden Claiming events. I think most of us would like to boast of those types of percentages. I know I would.
I don't have enough entries in other racing classifications yet for any meaningful numbers, but will update you as they come available. I am playing the Collective odds on the Maiden Claiming races as those are typically the last races I handicap on any card due to time constraints. Yesterday's card had 3 Maiden Claiming races. One race was a pass with no overlays, the 2nd race I played the 4th choice and lost. I should've played the 3rd choice, but the odds changed on me between laying the bet and the start of the race. I wait as long as I can and try to make the bet with 0 MTP as they're loading if I can. I can't help what happens after that. As it turns out, the 3rd choice won paying a nice 8-1 price. Finally got a winner betting a 2-1 favorite, actually needed 5-2, but again.....
That's a constant problem when one's play is dependent on the odds. It seems like a problem that could be solved by the data providers if they chose to do so. Friday, I bet a horse at 7-1, the minimum I required to bet the horse, at 0 MTP. By the time I got back to my seat, a five second walk, the odds had dropped to 5-1. The odds dropped 2 more ticks to 4-1 after the race had started. Is the tote system really that slow or is there some past posting going on here? Either way, it does make life difficult for a handicapper who's decisions are based odds and not selections.
Ok that's it for today. Don't forget to play the HANA race at Hollywood today (Race 8).
United Nations Hdcp.
What the Hell was the jockey colony thinking in allowing Presious Passion an uncontested 20 length lead within the first quarter of the race! Then along the backstretch, nobody was making up any ground on Presious Passion. Maybe they couldn't ,or maybe they weren't trying yet. At any rate, by the time they did start closing the gap, it was obvious they would not catch him.
As you know, I did not have Presious Passion picked to win; however, this particular scenario is not exactly what I had envisioned. I'm not shocked the horse won. There is no denying Presious Passion is one of the leading grass horses running right now. On the bright side, the German-bred Lauro managed to be second best for some Weasel vindication. And I don't mind getting beat by Elvis Trujillo who is an old Calder favorite and deserves to do well.
Firecracker Hdcp.
In this race we got the winner right, Mr. Sydney. No great feat there. The biggest surprise to me is that he paid 2-1 as I thought he might go a little lower. The Weasel play in this race was Tizdejavu at 9-1. Placed 2nd at the 3/4 pole, it looked as if there was a possibility he could move forward and go on to win, but he flattened out and was not a factor coming home.
Suburban Hdcp.
The Weasel managed to get this one right with the top two finishers albeit in the wrong order. That's OK as the Weasel play in this race was Dry Martini at 10-1. I do hope you got that one. The funny thing was that originally I had made Dry Martini the top choice, but, upon further thought put Asiatic Boy on top. That's what you get for thinking too much.
That leaves todays American Oaks from Hollywood. Beyond Gozzip Girl, I don't have a very good feel for this race. Take that under advisement if you use any of my opinions in your own handicapping decisions.
A word about the Handicapping the Handicapper project. I am approaching the idea in two ways at the moment. The ways have been chosen largely based on convenience. I have been following the betting pool selections for Calder Race Course since I play a lot of races there. One thing I've learned is that you play against the favorite in claiming races at your own peril at Calder as the Collective gets these right at about a 50% clip since I've been paying attention. The Collective is 37% accurate on the top choice in Maiden Claiming events. I think most of us would like to boast of those types of percentages. I know I would.
I don't have enough entries in other racing classifications yet for any meaningful numbers, but will update you as they come available. I am playing the Collective odds on the Maiden Claiming races as those are typically the last races I handicap on any card due to time constraints. Yesterday's card had 3 Maiden Claiming races. One race was a pass with no overlays, the 2nd race I played the 4th choice and lost. I should've played the 3rd choice, but the odds changed on me between laying the bet and the start of the race. I wait as long as I can and try to make the bet with 0 MTP as they're loading if I can. I can't help what happens after that. As it turns out, the 3rd choice won paying a nice 8-1 price. Finally got a winner betting a 2-1 favorite, actually needed 5-2, but again.....
That's a constant problem when one's play is dependent on the odds. It seems like a problem that could be solved by the data providers if they chose to do so. Friday, I bet a horse at 7-1, the minimum I required to bet the horse, at 0 MTP. By the time I got back to my seat, a five second walk, the odds had dropped to 5-1. The odds dropped 2 more ticks to 4-1 after the race had started. Is the tote system really that slow or is there some past posting going on here? Either way, it does make life difficult for a handicapper who's decisions are based odds and not selections.
Ok that's it for today. Don't forget to play the HANA race at Hollywood today (Race 8).
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
