It's that quiet time between the Derby and the Preakness. Many of the trainers and owners playing it cagey in trying to decide whether to run in the Preakness or skip the middle and load up for the Belmont.
As for me, I stand by my position that Jackson Bend should have skipped the Derby and aimed directly for the Preakness. Conveyance and Noble's Promise are not in the Preakness. Ice Box is out and they are still on the fence regarding Lookin at Lucky and Jackson Bend. I think I saw Pleasant Prince will be in.
You probably know by now Eskendereya is retired to stud. Sad news for racing fans but good news that the injury is not catastrophic. Esky now gets to live the life of a king. Good for him.
A few selections for today.
In the Winter Melody Stakes at Delaware, I like the horse for the course and distance. Delaware Park has been a #5 Magicalcarpetride for the daughter of Smart Strike. Trainer Anthony Dutrow is 43% going turf to dirt. Strong move for Tony and you should get a reasonable price here. #3 Miss Match has been racing against better and appears to be the class in the race. Third choice #8 Mindy Sue has never finished out of the money in 8 trips to the post.
In the Unbridled Sidney at Chuchill Downs #2 Knockout Bertie has been knocking on the door for red-hot trainer Stephen Margolis. I think Sean Bridgmohan will get her to the wire first today. It's hard to pick against 2nd choice #5 Selva, but jockey Robby Albarado has been ice cold at Churchill so far and his record on Turf is less than stellar even in good cirmcumstances. Still, Selva comes out of the key race Bienville60k with a 2nd place finish, so maybe fortunes will turn for Robby today. #8 Candy Cane races for the first time under the tutelage of Rick Dutrow, which is always a live chance in my book.
Belmont Park brings us the G2 Dwyer Stakes for 3 year olds. #2 Drosselmeyer seems to be the one to beat, but you'll have to be willing to accept a fairly low price to back this one. Anything over 7/5 seems fair here. #5 Remand ran a good 3rd in the Bayshore at the Big A and could come home first if Drosselmeyer happens to be looking forward to the Belmont Stakes. #7 Fly Down gets a tepid nod as 3rd choice; however I find the #1 Carnivore interesting as the lone speed long shot try. Carnivore has never run fast enough to beat most in this race, but if he gets brave on the lead who knows what could happen. Play only at a huge price.
Finally hooray for Hollywood and the G2 Mervyn Leroy handicap. #1 Dakota PHONEd the last one in on the dirt at Oaklawn. Now he's back on a more familiar surface and has been running great for Jerry Hollendorfer. If all things were equal, I'd still favor #6 Rail Trip in this position who I think could demolish this field while doing the backstroke. But the 244 day layoff has me thinking Rail Trip might need a race before firing his best shot. RT may not need his best shot to win here, but the price will be short and the layoff makes him vulnerable. #3 Slew's Tiznow rounds out the top three.
That's all I got for today. Going down to Miami to move my son out later. Will be hanging out at Calder tomorrow at the Home Stretch Bar next to the Poker Room. Just shout,"Where's that Chalk Eatin' Weasel?!" if you happen to be in the neighborhood. Maybe I'll buy you a drink.
I'm off
Showing posts with label Rachel Alexandra. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rachel Alexandra. Show all posts
Saturday, May 8, 2010
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Saturday Stakes
Welcome back for another trip through the Public Handicapper races of the day. First a look at last Sunday's Pacific Classic from Del Mar.
Can't say I saw Richard's Kid coming, but I should have. After all with last weekend being Labor Day weekend and Jerry raising money for his kids (does he still do that?), it should have been the hunch play of the week.
Glad to see Einstein still has a big effort, and hopefully more, in him. Rail Trip also ran a good race although he couldn't quite get up in the end. I thought Colonel John had a bit of a troubled trip. Getting stuck behind horses like he was can take a lot out a runner. By the time he finally did get clear he had nothing left. Global Hunter was the only one of the contenders that didn't become some kind of a factor in the race.
But that was last week. This a brand new week with brand new races to handicap. Here we go to Delaware Park for the first race of the week the G3 Endine. A 6 furlong affair for fillies and mares 3 and up.
The Endine is a speed filled affair that really caused me to waffle back and forth a lot. You would think this race would set up nicely for a late runner, but I just don't think the two late runners in this race are good enough to get the job done. I don't even know why the #3 Iron Butterfly is in this race. She is a good claiming horse but seems out classed here. Marty Wolfson's #7 Pious Ashley disappointed her backers at 0.9/1 in and allowance at Calder last out. As much as I love to pull for Wolfson when he ships, I can't see this one winning here.
#2 Keep The Peace and #1 Sunday Geisha are to need to lead types and someone has to give. I think it will be Sunday Geisha as Keep The Peace has been showing a little more staying power recently.
#4 Lady Chace, #5 Casanova Killer, #6 Fearless Leader, and #8 Bold Union.
4 of Fearless Leader's 5 wins have come on off tracks and the forecast for today does not include rain, except for showers. If the track is wet she becomes a factor.
That leaves 3 and Bold Union is the top choice having finished 2 lengths behind the last horse to finish ahead of Rachel Alexandra, Sara Louise, last out. I do have some trepidation about her wheeling back so soon, 14 days, after that last race. However, that used to be commonplace. She should be able to sit behind the pace and take over as the others falter.
Casanova Killer is the 2nd choice to win. Jeremy Rose gets the reins and he seems to ride a lot of Klesaris winners. Casanova Killer also comes off a win in the Jenny Wade Hdcp at Penn National.
Lady Chace is choice number 3. Probably figures to benefit most from the pace scenario but may not be quite fast enough here. B.J. Hernandez, Jr. and Steve Margolis have been another potent jockey/trainer combo, so she has to figure in here somewhere.
Finally Keep The Peace will be the 4th choice. She just may go all the way, but she seems to get caught a lot judging by her 7 2nd place finishes. Still this may be her best distance and she'll be sure to get the early jump on the others.
#8 Bold Union 8-5 take 5-2
#5 Casanova Killer 6-1 take 9-1
#4 Lady Chace 6-1 take 9-1
#2 Keep The Peace 6-1 take 9-1
Next we go north of the border to Toronto and the La Prevoyante for Ontario sired 3 year old fillies at 1 mile on the turf.
Tops on the list here is the #10 Double Malt who has done this twice before against similar and in many cases the same competition. Double Malt was odds on in a field of 4 last out and figures to be the favorite again. At least, in a field of 10, maybe you can get something better than 1-2 for your money.
The 2nd choice is #1 Executive Deed who takes the blinkers off and stretches out to a mile. Passing Mood ran 2nd to the top choice 2 back in a good first turf effort and could move forward off that effort. Will likely give be overlaid if everyone pounds on Double Malt as you would expect.
The 3rd choice is #5 Koonunga Hill. Koonunga Hill showed promise as a 2 year old but has failed to move forward as a 3 year old. Her latest efforts with 3 consecutive ascending Beyer's suggest this may be a horse on the improve.
#10 Double Malt 1-1 take 3-2
#1 Executive Deed 5-1 take 8-1
#5 Koonunga Hill 6-1 take 9-1
The next race is from Belmont Park the G1 Garden City Handicap for 3 year olds at a mile and an eight on the turf.
As of this writing the race is still on the grass, but it is raining so the going will be soft. The 4 logical contenders for this race have all run well on softer turf courses which helps making this race probably the easiest one to handicap so far.
#1 Gozzip Girl is the one to beat. She is rested and has been pointed for this race after dominating the American Oaks. She was flattered in that race by Well Monied who ran well to finish 3rd next out in the Del Mar Oaks (G1).
I can't choose between #6 Shared Account and #8 Maram for 2nd choice. Both are proven on soft turf and eligible to move forward and challenge Gozzip Girl. Give them equal chances.
The 4th choice is the #9 Keertana who was just a length slower than Shared Account last out after going 4 wide in the Lake Placid. This is a tough spot for her, but she is a Grade 3 winner and has a chance to step up.
#1 Gozzip Girl 5-2 take 4-1
#6 Shared Account 4-1 take 6-1
#8 Maram 4-1 take 6-1
#9 Keertana 6-1 take 9-1
The last race, the G3 Presque Isle Downs Masters for f and m 3 and up has the potential to be the most exciting race of the day with lots of early pace and stone cold closers to take advantage.
The tough part was finding legitimate contenders with experience on all-weather surfaces. This will be the first try over Tapeta for logical contenders #2 Diamondrella and and #4 Game Face. The #5 Bear Now is 8 of 14 on sythetic surfaces, but figures to be part of the early pace scenario.
I decided that #9 Informed Decision makes the most sense as she is 4 for 4 on fake surfaces and has the stalking ability to stay close to the leaders.
If Diamondrella can handle the surface, she will be coming late and is the 2nd choice here as she comes off of a key race G1 victory over the turf at Belmont and has been resting since that race in early June.
Game Face is another with tactical speed to stay close early and only need to prove some ability on the surface to be in contention and is the 3rd choice here.
Finally, in a nod to proven ability over sythetic soil, Bear Now will be the 4th choice although I expect the anticipated pace scenario is not in her favor.
#9 Informed Decision 3-1 take 9-2
#2 Diamondrella 4-1 take 6-1
#4 Game Face 4-1 take 6-1
#5 Bear Now 6-1 take 9-1
As always, these opinions are worth exactly what you pay for them. If you think they make some sense then feel free to use them, but don't blame me if they turn out to be duds.
Enjoy the days races and good luck.
Can't say I saw Richard's Kid coming, but I should have. After all with last weekend being Labor Day weekend and Jerry raising money for his kids (does he still do that?), it should have been the hunch play of the week.
Glad to see Einstein still has a big effort, and hopefully more, in him. Rail Trip also ran a good race although he couldn't quite get up in the end. I thought Colonel John had a bit of a troubled trip. Getting stuck behind horses like he was can take a lot out a runner. By the time he finally did get clear he had nothing left. Global Hunter was the only one of the contenders that didn't become some kind of a factor in the race.
But that was last week. This a brand new week with brand new races to handicap. Here we go to Delaware Park for the first race of the week the G3 Endine. A 6 furlong affair for fillies and mares 3 and up.
The Endine is a speed filled affair that really caused me to waffle back and forth a lot. You would think this race would set up nicely for a late runner, but I just don't think the two late runners in this race are good enough to get the job done. I don't even know why the #3 Iron Butterfly is in this race. She is a good claiming horse but seems out classed here. Marty Wolfson's #7 Pious Ashley disappointed her backers at 0.9/1 in and allowance at Calder last out. As much as I love to pull for Wolfson when he ships, I can't see this one winning here.
#2 Keep The Peace and #1 Sunday Geisha are to need to lead types and someone has to give. I think it will be Sunday Geisha as Keep The Peace has been showing a little more staying power recently.
#4 Lady Chace, #5 Casanova Killer, #6 Fearless Leader, and #8 Bold Union.
4 of Fearless Leader's 5 wins have come on off tracks and the forecast for today does not include rain, except for showers. If the track is wet she becomes a factor.
That leaves 3 and Bold Union is the top choice having finished 2 lengths behind the last horse to finish ahead of Rachel Alexandra, Sara Louise, last out. I do have some trepidation about her wheeling back so soon, 14 days, after that last race. However, that used to be commonplace. She should be able to sit behind the pace and take over as the others falter.
Casanova Killer is the 2nd choice to win. Jeremy Rose gets the reins and he seems to ride a lot of Klesaris winners. Casanova Killer also comes off a win in the Jenny Wade Hdcp at Penn National.
Lady Chace is choice number 3. Probably figures to benefit most from the pace scenario but may not be quite fast enough here. B.J. Hernandez, Jr. and Steve Margolis have been another potent jockey/trainer combo, so she has to figure in here somewhere.
Finally Keep The Peace will be the 4th choice. She just may go all the way, but she seems to get caught a lot judging by her 7 2nd place finishes. Still this may be her best distance and she'll be sure to get the early jump on the others.
#8 Bold Union 8-5 take 5-2
#5 Casanova Killer 6-1 take 9-1
#4 Lady Chace 6-1 take 9-1
#2 Keep The Peace 6-1 take 9-1
Next we go north of the border to Toronto and the La Prevoyante for Ontario sired 3 year old fillies at 1 mile on the turf.
Tops on the list here is the #10 Double Malt who has done this twice before against similar and in many cases the same competition. Double Malt was odds on in a field of 4 last out and figures to be the favorite again. At least, in a field of 10, maybe you can get something better than 1-2 for your money.
The 2nd choice is #1 Executive Deed who takes the blinkers off and stretches out to a mile. Passing Mood ran 2nd to the top choice 2 back in a good first turf effort and could move forward off that effort. Will likely give be overlaid if everyone pounds on Double Malt as you would expect.
The 3rd choice is #5 Koonunga Hill. Koonunga Hill showed promise as a 2 year old but has failed to move forward as a 3 year old. Her latest efforts with 3 consecutive ascending Beyer's suggest this may be a horse on the improve.
#10 Double Malt 1-1 take 3-2
#1 Executive Deed 5-1 take 8-1
#5 Koonunga Hill 6-1 take 9-1
The next race is from Belmont Park the G1 Garden City Handicap for 3 year olds at a mile and an eight on the turf.
As of this writing the race is still on the grass, but it is raining so the going will be soft. The 4 logical contenders for this race have all run well on softer turf courses which helps making this race probably the easiest one to handicap so far.
#1 Gozzip Girl is the one to beat. She is rested and has been pointed for this race after dominating the American Oaks. She was flattered in that race by Well Monied who ran well to finish 3rd next out in the Del Mar Oaks (G1).
I can't choose between #6 Shared Account and #8 Maram for 2nd choice. Both are proven on soft turf and eligible to move forward and challenge Gozzip Girl. Give them equal chances.
The 4th choice is the #9 Keertana who was just a length slower than Shared Account last out after going 4 wide in the Lake Placid. This is a tough spot for her, but she is a Grade 3 winner and has a chance to step up.
#1 Gozzip Girl 5-2 take 4-1
#6 Shared Account 4-1 take 6-1
#8 Maram 4-1 take 6-1
#9 Keertana 6-1 take 9-1
The last race, the G3 Presque Isle Downs Masters for f and m 3 and up has the potential to be the most exciting race of the day with lots of early pace and stone cold closers to take advantage.
The tough part was finding legitimate contenders with experience on all-weather surfaces. This will be the first try over Tapeta for logical contenders #2 Diamondrella and and #4 Game Face. The #5 Bear Now is 8 of 14 on sythetic surfaces, but figures to be part of the early pace scenario.
I decided that #9 Informed Decision makes the most sense as she is 4 for 4 on fake surfaces and has the stalking ability to stay close to the leaders.
If Diamondrella can handle the surface, she will be coming late and is the 2nd choice here as she comes off of a key race G1 victory over the turf at Belmont and has been resting since that race in early June.
Game Face is another with tactical speed to stay close early and only need to prove some ability on the surface to be in contention and is the 3rd choice here.
Finally, in a nod to proven ability over sythetic soil, Bear Now will be the 4th choice although I expect the anticipated pace scenario is not in her favor.
#9 Informed Decision 3-1 take 9-2
#2 Diamondrella 4-1 take 6-1
#4 Game Face 4-1 take 6-1
#5 Bear Now 6-1 take 9-1
As always, these opinions are worth exactly what you pay for them. If you think they make some sense then feel free to use them, but don't blame me if they turn out to be duds.
Enjoy the days races and good luck.
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Pacific Classic From Del Mar
First, to recap yesterday's races.
The 4th race was won by the lone speed angle and number 3 contender Mother Russia. Mother Russia went to the front and never looked back. She was shadowed around the oval by betting favorite and top selection Our Golden Dream and 4th choice and 9-1 betting selection Akilina.
While Akilina was saving ground all the way and rallying gamely to take 2nd, Our Golden Dream was fading to 4th down the stretch. Exclusive Scheme closed well to get up for 3rd. Although the 8 horse and 2nd selection Soave was a tasty 10-1, with Akilina at 9-1, The Weasel decided to eschew the win bet and went for the exacta with all four contender selections OGD, MR, S, and A over S and A.
The exacta paid 101.50 for 2 dollars thank you very much.
The key angles for this race turned out to be the lone early speed and the hidden key race. Akilina didn't improve enough to win the race, but she did improve enough to finish a game 2nd and complete a nice exacta.
Finally got a little back from Linda Rice.
The 9th race at Sartoga The Forego went pretty much as expected. The abundance of speed in the race became the perfect set up for the top two contenders Kodiak Kowboy and Pyro. I played my little exacta thingy again even though I wasn't very enthusiastic about the 3rd and 4th choices, and thought I would pass a win bet until Pyro started drifting up toward 4/1 nearing post time. I just got it in on time.
Both Kodiak Kowboy and Pyro started slowly from the gate with Pyro racing next to last down the backstretch. KK made his move on the turn and seemed to be fighting his way through to the wire when the seas opened up and lo and behold there was Pyro coming down the middle of the stretch. I had lost sight of Pyro and had watch the replay several times before I could even pick him out of the throng.
Pyro had more at the end than KK and went on to win by about a length. Kodiak Kowboy probably had a little bit harder route to take and finished well to get 2nd.
The key angle in this race turns out to be 2nd off the layoff into a G1 Stakes and the strong prep race showing for bin Suroor Saeed and Pyro.
In the Darly Debutante, the 2nd choice Mi Sueno proved to be clearly the best although I do predict big things for the 2nd place finisher and 4th selection Blind Luck who showed that she belongs among the best 2 year olds in the west.
Repo, the top choice, raced in good stalking position and made a bid in the stretch, but didn't have enough in fading to fifth. No excuses for Repo.
The 3rd place finisher, La Nez, made a big move forward with this race and bears taking a close look at next time out.
For this race, I stuck to my guns playing Repo to win and then dropping beneath the other contenders in the exacta. As the saying goes,"You can't win 'em all."
The key winning factor for this race would seem to be a very classy horse, Mi Sueno, coupled with the top last out Beyer figure.
And now the race you've been waiting for the G1 Pacific Classic from Del Mar.
From a race shape perspective there are 4 horses that figure to be setting what should be an honest pace at the front of the race. #9 Tres Borrachos (20-1 ml) should be striving for the lead followed in close attendance by #3 Rail Trip (4-1), #5 Mast Track (15-1), and #7 Misremembered (12-1). Therefore, the race sets up nicely for those off the pace types like #6 Colonel John (5-2), #1 Informed (10-1), and #10 Einstein (7-2).
That being said, coming out of the Hollywood Gold Cup, Informed won the G2 San Diego Handicap, Global Hunter won the G1 Eddie Read, and Bullsbay won the G1 won the G1 Whitney at Saratoga. That, my friends, is a key race, and why I believe Rail Trip should be the favorite in this race.
A multiple G1 winner as a 3 year old, #6 Colonel John has been made the morning line favorite for only his 2nd race as a 4 year old. The race certainly sets up for him and I like his come back race as one that can be built upon.
Rail Trip has lost 2 races and the horse that won those races just happens to be in this one, the #1 Informed. Informed also has 2 wins and 2 places in 4 trips around the Del Mar oval. Having shown he is capable of beating Rail Trip, I don't see how this horse can be excluded from any contender list and I make him the 3rd contender. 10-1 on the morning line seems rather generous in my eyes.
The fourth choice for the race is the battle tested campaigner #10 Einstein (7-2). I do have my doubts about Einstein. The Arlington Million had to be a disappointment for his connections, and we have a recent change in ownership. Certainly his best racing days may be behind him at 7 years of age, or is he really 6 having been bred south of the equator its all so confusing.
Considering his last performance and his advancing age, 7-2 is, IMOH, to optimistic. Still, here's hoping one of our old favorites has at least one more big effort in him.
A horse to watch in this race is Misremembered. I think as a 3 year old with the race shape being what it is, the step up may be a little too much. However, this race will be a good experience for him if he can come out of it healthy. Look for him to move forward soon if not today.
Ok, there you have it. So far its been a good week for The Chalk Eating Weasel Report. Let's hope we can squeeze one more race from that stone and make a little money today.
Good luck.
The 4th race was won by the lone speed angle and number 3 contender Mother Russia. Mother Russia went to the front and never looked back. She was shadowed around the oval by betting favorite and top selection Our Golden Dream and 4th choice and 9-1 betting selection Akilina.
While Akilina was saving ground all the way and rallying gamely to take 2nd, Our Golden Dream was fading to 4th down the stretch. Exclusive Scheme closed well to get up for 3rd. Although the 8 horse and 2nd selection Soave was a tasty 10-1, with Akilina at 9-1, The Weasel decided to eschew the win bet and went for the exacta with all four contender selections OGD, MR, S, and A over S and A.
The exacta paid 101.50 for 2 dollars thank you very much.
The key angles for this race turned out to be the lone early speed and the hidden key race. Akilina didn't improve enough to win the race, but she did improve enough to finish a game 2nd and complete a nice exacta.
Finally got a little back from Linda Rice.
The 9th race at Sartoga The Forego went pretty much as expected. The abundance of speed in the race became the perfect set up for the top two contenders Kodiak Kowboy and Pyro. I played my little exacta thingy again even though I wasn't very enthusiastic about the 3rd and 4th choices, and thought I would pass a win bet until Pyro started drifting up toward 4/1 nearing post time. I just got it in on time.
Both Kodiak Kowboy and Pyro started slowly from the gate with Pyro racing next to last down the backstretch. KK made his move on the turn and seemed to be fighting his way through to the wire when the seas opened up and lo and behold there was Pyro coming down the middle of the stretch. I had lost sight of Pyro and had watch the replay several times before I could even pick him out of the throng.
Pyro had more at the end than KK and went on to win by about a length. Kodiak Kowboy probably had a little bit harder route to take and finished well to get 2nd.
The key angle in this race turns out to be 2nd off the layoff into a G1 Stakes and the strong prep race showing for bin Suroor Saeed and Pyro.
In the Darly Debutante, the 2nd choice Mi Sueno proved to be clearly the best although I do predict big things for the 2nd place finisher and 4th selection Blind Luck who showed that she belongs among the best 2 year olds in the west.
Repo, the top choice, raced in good stalking position and made a bid in the stretch, but didn't have enough in fading to fifth. No excuses for Repo.
The 3rd place finisher, La Nez, made a big move forward with this race and bears taking a close look at next time out.
For this race, I stuck to my guns playing Repo to win and then dropping beneath the other contenders in the exacta. As the saying goes,"You can't win 'em all."
The key winning factor for this race would seem to be a very classy horse, Mi Sueno, coupled with the top last out Beyer figure.
And now the race you've been waiting for the G1 Pacific Classic from Del Mar.
From a race shape perspective there are 4 horses that figure to be setting what should be an honest pace at the front of the race. #9 Tres Borrachos (20-1 ml) should be striving for the lead followed in close attendance by #3 Rail Trip (4-1), #5 Mast Track (15-1), and #7 Misremembered (12-1). Therefore, the race sets up nicely for those off the pace types like #6 Colonel John (5-2), #1 Informed (10-1), and #10 Einstein (7-2).
That being said, coming out of the Hollywood Gold Cup, Informed won the G2 San Diego Handicap, Global Hunter won the G1 Eddie Read, and Bullsbay won the G1 won the G1 Whitney at Saratoga. That, my friends, is a key race, and why I believe Rail Trip should be the favorite in this race.
A multiple G1 winner as a 3 year old, #6 Colonel John has been made the morning line favorite for only his 2nd race as a 4 year old. The race certainly sets up for him and I like his come back race as one that can be built upon.
Rail Trip has lost 2 races and the horse that won those races just happens to be in this one, the #1 Informed. Informed also has 2 wins and 2 places in 4 trips around the Del Mar oval. Having shown he is capable of beating Rail Trip, I don't see how this horse can be excluded from any contender list and I make him the 3rd contender. 10-1 on the morning line seems rather generous in my eyes.
The fourth choice for the race is the battle tested campaigner #10 Einstein (7-2). I do have my doubts about Einstein. The Arlington Million had to be a disappointment for his connections, and we have a recent change in ownership. Certainly his best racing days may be behind him at 7 years of age, or is he really 6 having been bred south of the equator its all so confusing.
Considering his last performance and his advancing age, 7-2 is, IMOH, to optimistic. Still, here's hoping one of our old favorites has at least one more big effort in him.
A horse to watch in this race is Misremembered. I think as a 3 year old with the race shape being what it is, the step up may be a little too much. However, this race will be a good experience for him if he can come out of it healthy. Look for him to move forward soon if not today.
Ok, there you have it. So far its been a good week for The Chalk Eating Weasel Report. Let's hope we can squeeze one more race from that stone and make a little money today.
Good luck.
Saturday, September 5, 2009
All Hail Rachel Alexandra The Great
By now you know that Rachel Alexandra has firmly established herself as the best horse in North America. Da Tara certainly did his job pressing for fractions of 22 and 4/5 and 46 and change. These incredible fractions for the quarter and half set the race up perfectly for the closers Macho Again and Bullsbay. Macho Again took up the challenge and made a run of it at the end, but Rachel got to the wire before Macho Again could get to Rachel.
All hail Rachel Alexandra The Great!
All hail Rachel Alexandra The Great!
Rachel Faces Stiff Challenge In Woodward
Ah yes, back once again for another excercise in public humiliation known as The Chalk Eating Weasel Report.
To briefly recap last week. The Report managed to improve a little on the previous week coming up with a straight winner in the Traver's Stakes with Summer Bird. Capt. Candyman Can and Music Note also managed to flatter the Weasel. The Captain, in particular, running a gutsy race to gain a well deserved win via the DQ.
The Ballston Spa nearly caused me to fall out of my seat with the winner Salve Germania. I wanted to include Salve Germania as the 4th contender, I really did. Although an Irish bred, Salve Germania has German breeding on the Dam side. I have been reporting on how the importance of the stamina element represented by German breds is being recognized on the Continent. Probably the first Lasix didn't hurt. My gut said, "Contender.", but my mind looked at a seemingly lack luster past performance and said, "No." Oh what a coup that would've been.
The Ballston goes to show that it's the ones that get away that hurt. Anyone could've come up with the winners of the other three races. No great feat there. But Salve Germania! It will be awhile before you get a price like that on her again.
Now to this week's Public Handicapper races. Today I will give analysis and selections for 3 of the 4 races. The Pacific Classic is tomorrow, so I will post that one later. As a special bonus, I'll take a look at the Woodward as well (pssst hint, hint, Rachel looks really good here).
Just a note here. I have been using the Daily Racing Form's Formulator for this weeks races. There are some things I like about the Formulator and some things I don't care for so much. Sounds like a bonus edition of The Chalk Eating Weasel Report is in the offing some time in the future.
The first race is the 70k Peerless Springs from Saratoga. The Peerless Springs in One Mile on the old sod for 3 year old, New York bred, fillies.
There are 10 horses entered in this race, but, honestly, there are 3 horses where I just have to ask myself why they have been placed in such an ambitious spot. Since all 3 are owned by private individuals, I just have to conclude that it may be a bit of an ego thing with these owners wanting to see their horses running at The Spa. The three tosses are Eager Emma, Elegant Bass, and Freedom Rings. If one of these wins, then it won't be the first time I've had egg on my face.
The top choice for this race is the 7-2 morning line favorite #4 Our Golden Dream. In her last race, OGD finished 4th 2 lengths behind Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Maram and had a troubled trip to boot being checked at the half mile pole and steadied along the rail on the turn. Ascending Beyer's figures for the last 4 races indicate this is a 3 year old filly who is getting it. Favorite or not, this looks like the one to beat in this race.
The 2nd choice is #8 Soave at 5-1 in the morning line. Soave won a 30k Optional Claimer for non winners of 2 last out and now looks to step up her game. Kent Desormeaux has the reins. Soave is coming 3rd off a layoff into a stakes race. Trainer Thomas Bush is 28% (=5/2) with a positive ROI under these conditions. Hmm...3rd off layoff into a stakes race...actually sounds like a plan to me. At anything = or > than 4-1 Soave looks like a tasty choice to The Weasel.
The 3rd choice is the lone front-running speed in the race is the #7 Mother Russia. I can't tell you how much money I've lost betting against Linda Rice this season. Well, actually I can but I'm not going to. Last race out, Mother Russia wired the field at this distance and appears to be the only candidate that is capable of that feat again. Ramon Dominguez has ridden this horse 3 times and has won 3 times. Mother Russia is 4-1 in the morning line.
If you are looking for a long-shot try than the #2 Akilina at 12-1 in the morning line may be your huckleberry. Akilina is trained by noted turf trainer Clement Christophe and ridden by Rajiv Maragh. What you can't see in the racing form but can see if you look at the result chart in Formulator is that the 5th place finisher in Akilina's last race, Nedjma, won and was claimed in a 25k open claiming race next out. Along with Acquired Cat winning her next out, this becomes something of a hidden key race. Akilina has to get better to win, but if you can get a good price, take a shot. Be sure to use in the exotics.
The next PH race is the 9th at Saratoga, the G1 Forego for 3 and up contested at 7 furlongs.
Two horses stand out to me in this race so I'll just get down to it.
#2 Kodiak Kowboy has the to Beyer's for this race, has run in good form last two out, 3 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 over the surface. Seems to be the one to beat here. Trained by Larry Jones and ridden by Gabriel Saez, KK is also the 5-2 morning line favorite. I say,"If you can get 5-2 on KK, take it."
#4 Pyro is my 2nd choice and most likely where I will put my hard earned bucks if I play this race. Funny thing is, I burned a lot of money on Pyro as a 3 year old. Now he comes back and its like deja vu all over again. But...Pyro is coming off of a nice prep for bin Suroor Saeed who is 30% 2nd off layoffs coming into a G1 race. Again, sounds like a plan to me. Pyro is 4-1 in the morning line, and considering his checkered past, that seems about right.
Had a hard time going much deeper in this race, but after a lot of pondering I finally settled on the #7 Driven By Success for the 3rd choice. DBS has good early speed, which is always dangerous, but is not the only speed in the race, which is always dangerous to the early speed. Still DBS, a NY bred, has been competitive, if not entirely successful in open graded company finishing 3rd in the Metropolitan Hdcp and the Tom Fool Hdcp and would not be a complete surprise. Ramon Dominguez takes the seat, but Bruce Levine has been ice cold at the Spa so demand a price on this pony.
Finally we come to #6 Golden Trippi at 20-1 in the morning line. GT is the winner of Pyro's comeback race, so why 20-1. Perhaps its the lack of Graded success, but I would rather have GT than others in this race, so consider him a very tepid choice numero quatro.
Out to the other coast at Del Mar for the 8th race on that card The G1 Darly Debutante for 2 year old fillies.
The top choice here is the very unchalky 6-1 morning line runner #8 Repo. Repo has done nothing but win 3 of her 4 starts including two stakes victories. I don't understand the line makers reticence here except for possible the relatively low Beyer's figure last out. This is where I think reliance on Beyer's figures as a handicapping tool can be misleading. Repo stalked the pace last out, moved to win and won easily. It's not her fault the pacesetter was slow and its to Cory Nakatani's credit that he took no more from the horse than needed to win. But Cory will not be on Repo as we get a positive jockey change to Mr. Garrett Gomez for this race. Personally, I will be surprised if she goes off anything near 6-1 but will consider it a Prime bet if the line maker is correct.
#6 Mi Sueno is pick number 2 and the 9/5 morning line favorite. Mi Sueno comes off a G3 win where she turned the tables on 1st race foe and 3rd choice # 4 Necessary Evil. Both Mi Sueno and Necessary Evil are flattered that by the 4th place finisher in their last race, Camille C, who won a 100k overnight for Cal breds next out. Either of these two could take out the top choice Repo.
#3 Blind Luck is the 4th choice. 9-2 in the morning line, BL has won 2 races in 2 tries with speed to spare. The two races were a 4ok maiden claimer and a40k Starter allowance so she will need to step up in class some to compete here. But note she spotted the field over 7 lengths due to a bad start and still won by an easy 3.5 lengths.
Now for the race we all are waiting for the G1 Woodward.
#3 Rachel Alexandra's last out 116 is 6 points better than the next best Beyer's on the form and 9 points better than the next best last out, and she has improved her Beyer's for 10 consecutive races. How much better can she get? She is an obvious top pick and frankly, this race probably won't be playable.
As for the competition. #1 Da Tara has been disappointing since the 2008 Belmont Stakes, #2 Bullsbay seems unlikely to duplicate his 107 effort last out, #1a Cool Coal Man won by a huge margin last out and could upset the precocious filly, #4 Macho Again also ran his best ever figure last out in finishing 2nd, #5 It's a Bird (Birdonthewire not Birdstone) ships in for Marty Wolfson who won with Icon Project and is 18% with a positive ROI when shipping out for stakes races, #6 Asiatic Boy was considered for the Pacific Classic when Rachel declared her intentions showing how much confidence McLaughlin has here, and #7 Past The Point will have to regain his form from last fall to have a chance.
Here's the race in short hand
#3 Rachel Alexandra
#1a Cool Coal Man
#5 It'a A Bird
#2 Bullsbay
Good luck and see you tomorrow with the Pacific Classic
To briefly recap last week. The Report managed to improve a little on the previous week coming up with a straight winner in the Traver's Stakes with Summer Bird. Capt. Candyman Can and Music Note also managed to flatter the Weasel. The Captain, in particular, running a gutsy race to gain a well deserved win via the DQ.
The Ballston Spa nearly caused me to fall out of my seat with the winner Salve Germania. I wanted to include Salve Germania as the 4th contender, I really did. Although an Irish bred, Salve Germania has German breeding on the Dam side. I have been reporting on how the importance of the stamina element represented by German breds is being recognized on the Continent. Probably the first Lasix didn't hurt. My gut said, "Contender.", but my mind looked at a seemingly lack luster past performance and said, "No." Oh what a coup that would've been.
The Ballston goes to show that it's the ones that get away that hurt. Anyone could've come up with the winners of the other three races. No great feat there. But Salve Germania! It will be awhile before you get a price like that on her again.
Now to this week's Public Handicapper races. Today I will give analysis and selections for 3 of the 4 races. The Pacific Classic is tomorrow, so I will post that one later. As a special bonus, I'll take a look at the Woodward as well (pssst hint, hint, Rachel looks really good here).
Just a note here. I have been using the Daily Racing Form's Formulator for this weeks races. There are some things I like about the Formulator and some things I don't care for so much. Sounds like a bonus edition of The Chalk Eating Weasel Report is in the offing some time in the future.
The first race is the 70k Peerless Springs from Saratoga. The Peerless Springs in One Mile on the old sod for 3 year old, New York bred, fillies.
There are 10 horses entered in this race, but, honestly, there are 3 horses where I just have to ask myself why they have been placed in such an ambitious spot. Since all 3 are owned by private individuals, I just have to conclude that it may be a bit of an ego thing with these owners wanting to see their horses running at The Spa. The three tosses are Eager Emma, Elegant Bass, and Freedom Rings. If one of these wins, then it won't be the first time I've had egg on my face.
The top choice for this race is the 7-2 morning line favorite #4 Our Golden Dream. In her last race, OGD finished 4th 2 lengths behind Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Maram and had a troubled trip to boot being checked at the half mile pole and steadied along the rail on the turn. Ascending Beyer's figures for the last 4 races indicate this is a 3 year old filly who is getting it. Favorite or not, this looks like the one to beat in this race.
The 2nd choice is #8 Soave at 5-1 in the morning line. Soave won a 30k Optional Claimer for non winners of 2 last out and now looks to step up her game. Kent Desormeaux has the reins. Soave is coming 3rd off a layoff into a stakes race. Trainer Thomas Bush is 28% (=5/2) with a positive ROI under these conditions. Hmm...3rd off layoff into a stakes race...actually sounds like a plan to me. At anything = or > than 4-1 Soave looks like a tasty choice to The Weasel.
The 3rd choice is the lone front-running speed in the race is the #7 Mother Russia. I can't tell you how much money I've lost betting against Linda Rice this season. Well, actually I can but I'm not going to. Last race out, Mother Russia wired the field at this distance and appears to be the only candidate that is capable of that feat again. Ramon Dominguez has ridden this horse 3 times and has won 3 times. Mother Russia is 4-1 in the morning line.
If you are looking for a long-shot try than the #2 Akilina at 12-1 in the morning line may be your huckleberry. Akilina is trained by noted turf trainer Clement Christophe and ridden by Rajiv Maragh. What you can't see in the racing form but can see if you look at the result chart in Formulator is that the 5th place finisher in Akilina's last race, Nedjma, won and was claimed in a 25k open claiming race next out. Along with Acquired Cat winning her next out, this becomes something of a hidden key race. Akilina has to get better to win, but if you can get a good price, take a shot. Be sure to use in the exotics.
The next PH race is the 9th at Saratoga, the G1 Forego for 3 and up contested at 7 furlongs.
Two horses stand out to me in this race so I'll just get down to it.
#2 Kodiak Kowboy has the to Beyer's for this race, has run in good form last two out, 3 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 over the surface. Seems to be the one to beat here. Trained by Larry Jones and ridden by Gabriel Saez, KK is also the 5-2 morning line favorite. I say,"If you can get 5-2 on KK, take it."
#4 Pyro is my 2nd choice and most likely where I will put my hard earned bucks if I play this race. Funny thing is, I burned a lot of money on Pyro as a 3 year old. Now he comes back and its like deja vu all over again. But...Pyro is coming off of a nice prep for bin Suroor Saeed who is 30% 2nd off layoffs coming into a G1 race. Again, sounds like a plan to me. Pyro is 4-1 in the morning line, and considering his checkered past, that seems about right.
Had a hard time going much deeper in this race, but after a lot of pondering I finally settled on the #7 Driven By Success for the 3rd choice. DBS has good early speed, which is always dangerous, but is not the only speed in the race, which is always dangerous to the early speed. Still DBS, a NY bred, has been competitive, if not entirely successful in open graded company finishing 3rd in the Metropolitan Hdcp and the Tom Fool Hdcp and would not be a complete surprise. Ramon Dominguez takes the seat, but Bruce Levine has been ice cold at the Spa so demand a price on this pony.
Finally we come to #6 Golden Trippi at 20-1 in the morning line. GT is the winner of Pyro's comeback race, so why 20-1. Perhaps its the lack of Graded success, but I would rather have GT than others in this race, so consider him a very tepid choice numero quatro.
Out to the other coast at Del Mar for the 8th race on that card The G1 Darly Debutante for 2 year old fillies.
The top choice here is the very unchalky 6-1 morning line runner #8 Repo. Repo has done nothing but win 3 of her 4 starts including two stakes victories. I don't understand the line makers reticence here except for possible the relatively low Beyer's figure last out. This is where I think reliance on Beyer's figures as a handicapping tool can be misleading. Repo stalked the pace last out, moved to win and won easily. It's not her fault the pacesetter was slow and its to Cory Nakatani's credit that he took no more from the horse than needed to win. But Cory will not be on Repo as we get a positive jockey change to Mr. Garrett Gomez for this race. Personally, I will be surprised if she goes off anything near 6-1 but will consider it a Prime bet if the line maker is correct.
#6 Mi Sueno is pick number 2 and the 9/5 morning line favorite. Mi Sueno comes off a G3 win where she turned the tables on 1st race foe and 3rd choice # 4 Necessary Evil. Both Mi Sueno and Necessary Evil are flattered that by the 4th place finisher in their last race, Camille C, who won a 100k overnight for Cal breds next out. Either of these two could take out the top choice Repo.
#3 Blind Luck is the 4th choice. 9-2 in the morning line, BL has won 2 races in 2 tries with speed to spare. The two races were a 4ok maiden claimer and a40k Starter allowance so she will need to step up in class some to compete here. But note she spotted the field over 7 lengths due to a bad start and still won by an easy 3.5 lengths.
Now for the race we all are waiting for the G1 Woodward.
#3 Rachel Alexandra's last out 116 is 6 points better than the next best Beyer's on the form and 9 points better than the next best last out, and she has improved her Beyer's for 10 consecutive races. How much better can she get? She is an obvious top pick and frankly, this race probably won't be playable.
As for the competition. #1 Da Tara has been disappointing since the 2008 Belmont Stakes, #2 Bullsbay seems unlikely to duplicate his 107 effort last out, #1a Cool Coal Man won by a huge margin last out and could upset the precocious filly, #4 Macho Again also ran his best ever figure last out in finishing 2nd, #5 It's a Bird (Birdonthewire not Birdstone) ships in for Marty Wolfson who won with Icon Project and is 18% with a positive ROI when shipping out for stakes races, #6 Asiatic Boy was considered for the Pacific Classic when Rachel declared her intentions showing how much confidence McLaughlin has here, and #7 Past The Point will have to regain his form from last fall to have a chance.
Here's the race in short hand
#3 Rachel Alexandra
#1a Cool Coal Man
#5 It'a A Bird
#2 Bullsbay
Good luck and see you tomorrow with the Pacific Classic
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Phandcapper and HANA Pool Races: May 30
Another Saturday and another installment on Public Handicapper and the HANA Pool race of the week.
By now the word is out that Rachel Alexandra will not run in the Belmont. I don't have much to add to that which has already been said elsewhere I'm sure. I do remember reading somewhere that Asmussen had said that she did not come out of the Preakness as well as they liked. I remember thinking she was looking tiredl towards the end of the race, but then after watching the replay, I thought perhaps I was mistaken with my initial impression. I'm so confused. All the same, the Belmont seems to be attracting a good field. Unfortunately, it appears Friesan Fire will also miss the Belmont. At least I won't have to burn anymore money on him for awhile.
And now for the Picks.
The first race on deck is the McKayMackenna S for F and M 3up which have not won an open sweepstakes on the turf in 2008 or 2009
I found this race to be a very competitive brain buster. In my mind Scolara is something of a stand out here, but after that its anybody's guess. In addition to my choices below, keep an eye on #9 Shadiyna who ran a real good race in an OC50kn2x last out which she might've won except for getting bumped before the wire.
Belmont R8
4:44
#6 Scolara
2-1
3-1
#2 La Hernanda
5-1
8-1
#10 Kristi With A K
5-1
8-1
#8 Pastel Gal
5-1
8-1
In what looks to be a very competitive race, #6 Scolara gets the favorite position based on previous stakes and grade 3 showing. After Scolara you can take your pick #2 La Hernanda comes off a 5 month layoff after beating open alw company in Tampa (note she was dq'ed and placed 2nd). Plenty of time to rest after achieving the top figure in the field #10 K with a K has only finished OTM once in 9 starts and is unbeaten in 2 tries on Belmont Turf. #8 Pastel Gal bested K with a K in a Jan. GP allowance.
The next race is the HANA Pool race. Lots of grumbling on the HANA message board about playing such a high profile track. Not from me. Sheesh, can't we all just get along? This race looks to be very competitive; however it is difficult to pick against Semaphore Man here. Though, as usual, I'll be letting the odds do my picking for me.
G3 Aristides for 3 up
Churchill R10
5:29
#6 Semaphore Man
5-2
4-1
#5 Sok Sok
3-1
9-2
#2 Cassoulet
6-1
9-1
#7 Premium Wine
6-1
9-1
#6 Semaphore Man never seems to have a bad race except when on artificial comes into race rested after Oaklawn Park G3 win. #5 Sok Sok is a 5 of 10 winner and 3 of 6 at the distance gets Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan. #2 Cassoulet looks to be on the improve and in good form and may surprise in this spot. #7 Premium Wine flashed alot of speed in NY last spring before going on the shelf for 8 months. Has been working regularly since early April and is the fastest of the group if he has regained his old form.
Moving out west to Golden Gate Fields for the Golden Gate Fields Turf Stakes-G3 for 4 and up the biggest surprise may be the field size at 9. Of course this race attracted several SoCal runners and looks to be a good one.
GGF R8
7:23
#3 Spring House
2-1
3-1
#5 Yacht Spotter
4-1
6-1
#6 Porfido
5-1
8-1
#9 Obrigado
5-1
8-1
#3 Spring House is a distance specialist and the only recent Graded stakes race winner in the bunch. Lately running in good company the 7 yo gelding goes slumming up to GGF in search of some Graded stakes money. After bleeding in the San Luis Rey, SH came back with a good effort in the San Juan Capistrano. Always deferential to the home team and horses for courses #5 Yacht Spotter is 5 for 8 and 8 times ITM at GGF. This front running type is stetching out to this distance for the first time, can be rated, and often these types of races can be won on the front end. Witness Criticism last week at Belmont. Besides the distance the worry for YS will be the speedy Shem at post 1 who may not be inclined to let YS have an easy time at the front. #6 Porfido and #9 Obrigado have each been chasing SH around alot. Porfido seems to be at his best at these longer distances and Obrigado was a mere 3/4 lengths behind SH last out.
Finally we wind up the evening in Hollywood. Enjoy it while you have it. The race is the Gamely Stakes-G1. I expect Black Mamba will get wound up for a big stretch run again. I think she was clearly the best at the end in the Santa Barbara and am not convinced she lost that race. Check the photo below and you decide. Meanwhile, here are the selections.
Hol R9
8:08
#10 Black Mamba
3-1
7-2
#4 Diamond Diva
7-2
5-1
#7 Magical Fantasy
4-1
6-1
#1 Tuscan Diva
6-1
9-1
#10 Black Mamba wound up going 9 wide, (comments say 6, but check the replay) to just miss and should turn the tables on the 7 with a little luck #4 Diamond Diva is the Horse for Course pick in here and has a victory over the top choice should be near front meaning less traffic and less that can go wrong. #7 Magical Fantasy rode the rails in the Santa Barbara while BM took the long route and just managed to hang on. In fact, check the win photo as it looks like a dead heat to me. Look for a different outcome this time. #1 Tuscan Diva should get the early lead and has top rider Bejarano aboard to see if she can be coaxed all the way home. I think the field is too strong for her, but worth a shot at a long price.
Black Mamba is the outside horse.
By now the word is out that Rachel Alexandra will not run in the Belmont. I don't have much to add to that which has already been said elsewhere I'm sure. I do remember reading somewhere that Asmussen had said that she did not come out of the Preakness as well as they liked. I remember thinking she was looking tiredl towards the end of the race, but then after watching the replay, I thought perhaps I was mistaken with my initial impression. I'm so confused. All the same, the Belmont seems to be attracting a good field. Unfortunately, it appears Friesan Fire will also miss the Belmont. At least I won't have to burn anymore money on him for awhile.
And now for the Picks.
The first race on deck is the McKayMackenna S for F and M 3up which have not won an open sweepstakes on the turf in 2008 or 2009
I found this race to be a very competitive brain buster. In my mind Scolara is something of a stand out here, but after that its anybody's guess. In addition to my choices below, keep an eye on #9 Shadiyna who ran a real good race in an OC50kn2x last out which she might've won except for getting bumped before the wire.
Belmont R8
4:44
#6 Scolara
2-1
3-1
#2 La Hernanda
5-1
8-1
#10 Kristi With A K
5-1
8-1
#8 Pastel Gal
5-1
8-1
In what looks to be a very competitive race, #6 Scolara gets the favorite position based on previous stakes and grade 3 showing. After Scolara you can take your pick #2 La Hernanda comes off a 5 month layoff after beating open alw company in Tampa (note she was dq'ed and placed 2nd). Plenty of time to rest after achieving the top figure in the field #10 K with a K has only finished OTM once in 9 starts and is unbeaten in 2 tries on Belmont Turf. #8 Pastel Gal bested K with a K in a Jan. GP allowance.
The next race is the HANA Pool race. Lots of grumbling on the HANA message board about playing such a high profile track. Not from me. Sheesh, can't we all just get along? This race looks to be very competitive; however it is difficult to pick against Semaphore Man here. Though, as usual, I'll be letting the odds do my picking for me.
G3 Aristides for 3 up
Churchill R10
5:29
#6 Semaphore Man
5-2
4-1
#5 Sok Sok
3-1
9-2
#2 Cassoulet
6-1
9-1
#7 Premium Wine
6-1
9-1
#6 Semaphore Man never seems to have a bad race except when on artificial comes into race rested after Oaklawn Park G3 win. #5 Sok Sok is a 5 of 10 winner and 3 of 6 at the distance gets Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan. #2 Cassoulet looks to be on the improve and in good form and may surprise in this spot. #7 Premium Wine flashed alot of speed in NY last spring before going on the shelf for 8 months. Has been working regularly since early April and is the fastest of the group if he has regained his old form.
Moving out west to Golden Gate Fields for the Golden Gate Fields Turf Stakes-G3 for 4 and up the biggest surprise may be the field size at 9. Of course this race attracted several SoCal runners and looks to be a good one.
GGF R8
7:23
#3 Spring House
2-1
3-1
#5 Yacht Spotter
4-1
6-1
#6 Porfido
5-1
8-1
#9 Obrigado
5-1
8-1
#3 Spring House is a distance specialist and the only recent Graded stakes race winner in the bunch. Lately running in good company the 7 yo gelding goes slumming up to GGF in search of some Graded stakes money. After bleeding in the San Luis Rey, SH came back with a good effort in the San Juan Capistrano. Always deferential to the home team and horses for courses #5 Yacht Spotter is 5 for 8 and 8 times ITM at GGF. This front running type is stetching out to this distance for the first time, can be rated, and often these types of races can be won on the front end. Witness Criticism last week at Belmont. Besides the distance the worry for YS will be the speedy Shem at post 1 who may not be inclined to let YS have an easy time at the front. #6 Porfido and #9 Obrigado have each been chasing SH around alot. Porfido seems to be at his best at these longer distances and Obrigado was a mere 3/4 lengths behind SH last out.
Finally we wind up the evening in Hollywood. Enjoy it while you have it. The race is the Gamely Stakes-G1. I expect Black Mamba will get wound up for a big stretch run again. I think she was clearly the best at the end in the Santa Barbara and am not convinced she lost that race. Check the photo below and you decide. Meanwhile, here are the selections.
Hol R9
8:08
#10 Black Mamba
3-1
7-2
#4 Diamond Diva
7-2
5-1
#7 Magical Fantasy
4-1
6-1
#1 Tuscan Diva
6-1
9-1
#10 Black Mamba wound up going 9 wide, (comments say 6, but check the replay) to just miss and should turn the tables on the 7 with a little luck #4 Diamond Diva is the Horse for Course pick in here and has a victory over the top choice should be near front meaning less traffic and less that can go wrong. #7 Magical Fantasy rode the rails in the Santa Barbara while BM took the long route and just managed to hang on. In fact, check the win photo as it looks like a dead heat to me. Look for a different outcome this time. #1 Tuscan Diva should get the early lead and has top rider Bejarano aboard to see if she can be coaxed all the way home. I think the field is too strong for her, but worth a shot at a long price.
Black Mamba is the outside horse.
Monday, May 18, 2009
Preakness Post Mortem
A day late and $23.00 short (the total amount I played on the Preakness) I'm trying to figure out what to do with that little thingy to the left on the top with my picture. At first, I was just using my raw Public Handicapper Picks up. However, since I don't necessarily play my top choice in a race, I decided that wasn't an accurate representation of my results.
Then I started putting up results while playing the home game, but I find that to be very distracting, hectic, and of no use to anyone since by the time I get anything posted the race is already running.
So here's what I'm going to do, and I'm going to stick with it this time. I will put up the results of my plays on any Public Handicapper, HANA Get in the pool race, or other race I feel compelled to chime in with an opinion on commencing with the results from Saturday.
So, speaking of results, Rachel and the Bird made a monkey of the Weasel. Third place was the best any of my contenders could come up with.
My impression immediately following the race and which I carried with me until I looked at the replays today is that Rachel Alexandra was clearly the best in this race, but she seemed to be laboring the last 16th with Mine That Bird closing furiously. I felt, had the race gone another 16th MTB would've caught her.
After watching the replays, I'm more of the mind that Borel was easing her the last portion of the race making MTB's finish seem more impressive than it was (it was still impressive).
Of my contenders, Musket Man pretty much saved ground on the rail mid-pack throughout most of the race and was able to reel in the faltering horse from the first group while making up no ground on the winnner. Pioneerof The Nile track the pacesetters in about 5th position but was 3 wide most of the trip and went at least 6 wide on the final turn. Gomez pretty much stopped trying down the stretch as Pioneer was clearly finished.
However, there is one contender that may have an excuse. Friesan Fire stumbled to his knees at the start and then played bumper cars with a rank Big Drama all the way to the club house turn. In spite of the difficult beginning, FF was able to stalk the pace at least to the point where Borel asked Rachel to go on and leave the boys behind. I feel the need to point this out because in the results it only states that "Friesan Fire bobbled at the break, quickly recovered and reached a striking position, bumped with Pioneerof The Nile entering the first turn, angled out four wide for the run down the backstretch, was put to a ride midway on the final turn then tired through the drive." While FF did recover quickly, it was no mere bobble at the break and there is no mention of the bumping with Big Drama who seemed unable to run in a straight line the first time down the stretch. Just a little something you might want to consider for the next race.
If you just played my PH handicapper picks straight you won 2 of 4, the Preakness not withstanding, which is not too bad. If you paid attention to my odds line, then you passed 1oth race (the Maryland Sprint Hdcp) altogether even though Ravalo was the winner with 4th choice, Silver Edition completing the exacta.
In the Dixie Stakes, 2nd choice Kiss The Kid was the betting choice and seemed to be in good position to make a bid entering the stretch but got pinched off not once, but twice when trying to move forward. Top choice Parading got the good trip and won the race. Such is turf racing.
The winning play for me came in the 8th race. 2nd choice Everyday Heroes at 7-1 brought home the bacon, unfortunately, we couldn't get another contender up to complete the exacta. That would've been sweet. For you tote board watchers out there, and that would include me, I should point out that the odds on Everyday Heroes dropped from 9-1 to 7-1 at 0 minutes to post. Somebody had to drop a bundle to move the odds that much considering the size of the pool. My apologies, I had contender Yano as number 8 when he should've been number 9. Remember to check your programs.
The above race along with the day I had at CRC where I was en fuego, made for a very enjoyable day and I didn't even mind getting beat by the best horse in the Preakness. I can't wait for the Belmont.
Then I started putting up results while playing the home game, but I find that to be very distracting, hectic, and of no use to anyone since by the time I get anything posted the race is already running.
So here's what I'm going to do, and I'm going to stick with it this time. I will put up the results of my plays on any Public Handicapper, HANA Get in the pool race, or other race I feel compelled to chime in with an opinion on commencing with the results from Saturday.
So, speaking of results, Rachel and the Bird made a monkey of the Weasel. Third place was the best any of my contenders could come up with.
My impression immediately following the race and which I carried with me until I looked at the replays today is that Rachel Alexandra was clearly the best in this race, but she seemed to be laboring the last 16th with Mine That Bird closing furiously. I felt, had the race gone another 16th MTB would've caught her.
After watching the replays, I'm more of the mind that Borel was easing her the last portion of the race making MTB's finish seem more impressive than it was (it was still impressive).
Of my contenders, Musket Man pretty much saved ground on the rail mid-pack throughout most of the race and was able to reel in the faltering horse from the first group while making up no ground on the winnner. Pioneerof The Nile track the pacesetters in about 5th position but was 3 wide most of the trip and went at least 6 wide on the final turn. Gomez pretty much stopped trying down the stretch as Pioneer was clearly finished.
However, there is one contender that may have an excuse. Friesan Fire stumbled to his knees at the start and then played bumper cars with a rank Big Drama all the way to the club house turn. In spite of the difficult beginning, FF was able to stalk the pace at least to the point where Borel asked Rachel to go on and leave the boys behind. I feel the need to point this out because in the results it only states that "Friesan Fire bobbled at the break, quickly recovered and reached a striking position, bumped with Pioneerof The Nile entering the first turn, angled out four wide for the run down the backstretch, was put to a ride midway on the final turn then tired through the drive." While FF did recover quickly, it was no mere bobble at the break and there is no mention of the bumping with Big Drama who seemed unable to run in a straight line the first time down the stretch. Just a little something you might want to consider for the next race.
If you just played my PH handicapper picks straight you won 2 of 4, the Preakness not withstanding, which is not too bad. If you paid attention to my odds line, then you passed 1oth race (the Maryland Sprint Hdcp) altogether even though Ravalo was the winner with 4th choice, Silver Edition completing the exacta.
In the Dixie Stakes, 2nd choice Kiss The Kid was the betting choice and seemed to be in good position to make a bid entering the stretch but got pinched off not once, but twice when trying to move forward. Top choice Parading got the good trip and won the race. Such is turf racing.
The winning play for me came in the 8th race. 2nd choice Everyday Heroes at 7-1 brought home the bacon, unfortunately, we couldn't get another contender up to complete the exacta. That would've been sweet. For you tote board watchers out there, and that would include me, I should point out that the odds on Everyday Heroes dropped from 9-1 to 7-1 at 0 minutes to post. Somebody had to drop a bundle to move the odds that much considering the size of the pool. My apologies, I had contender Yano as number 8 when he should've been number 9. Remember to check your programs.
The above race along with the day I had at CRC where I was en fuego, made for a very enjoyable day and I didn't even mind getting beat by the best horse in the Preakness. I can't wait for the Belmont.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Pub Handicapper Picks for May 16
Well here they are for those who want a good laugh. I sure whiffed on the Black-Eyed Susan. When Hooh Why was scratched every thing was changed, and I should've just passed the race. Haven't seen anything about a HANA in the pool race this week, so I guess were skipping that one as we did for Derby day.
Well, here goes nothing
Pim R8 Hirsch Jacobs Stakes, G3 for 3 year olds
#1 Taqarub
3-1
7-2
#2 Everyday Heroes
7-2
5-1
#7 Nuclear Wayne
9-2
7-1
#8 Yano
5-1
8-1
Speed, Speed, nothing but speed. Give inside posts advantage over outside, but its really anybody's race
Race 10 Maryland Sprind Hdcp G3 for 3 and up
#8 Ravalo
2-1
3-1
#5 Ah Day
4-1
6-1
#2 Grand Traverse
6-1
9-1
#3 Silver Edition
6-1
9-1
#8 Ravalo is 8 for 16 at the distance with last 10 all against stakes company. #5 Recent stakes winner and 5 of 7 at the distance with lots of backclass. Ignore last race at mile #2 Grand Traverse has been showing good form of late, but beware of high speed figure set over sloppy sealed track in last at Chuchill #3 Winner of the 50k Hot Springs hdcp at Oaklawn could step up with Leparoux
Race 11 Dixie Stakes G2 for 3 and up
#3 Parading
3-1
9-2
#4 Kiss The Kid
7-2
5-1
#1 Proudinsky
4-1
6-1
#7 Wesley
6-1
9-1
#3 Comes into race off a nice G3 win and has had a little more time to recover than #1. #4 has won 3 of his last 4 and rarely misfires. He is well rested and should run well here. #1 Proudinsky just bumped heads 2 weeks ago with arguably the best older turf horse in N.A. (Einstein). He will be a factor if he can come back quickly off that race. #7 Had a nice tune-up opening weekend at CRC, but this field is much better than the one he faced in Florida.
R12 The Preakness G1 3 yo's
P# 12th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#9 Pioneeror The Nile
3-1
9-2
#3 Musket Man
7-2
5-1
#5 Friesan Fire
4-1
6-1
#1 Big Drama
5-1
8-1
I'm deliberately ignoring, admittedly perhaps to my detriment, the publicity horse Rachel Alexandra and the Cinderella horse Mine That Bird for reasons I've already discussed. I think Big Drama could run a Big Race here although, supposedly, history regarding fresh horses coming into the Preakness would suggest not. Still, he should be a pace factor and make RA run a little harder than maybe she is used to early.
Well, here goes nothing
Pim R8 Hirsch Jacobs Stakes, G3 for 3 year olds
#1 Taqarub
3-1
7-2
#2 Everyday Heroes
7-2
5-1
#7 Nuclear Wayne
9-2
7-1
#8 Yano
5-1
8-1
Speed, Speed, nothing but speed. Give inside posts advantage over outside, but its really anybody's race
Race 10 Maryland Sprind Hdcp G3 for 3 and up
#8 Ravalo
2-1
3-1
#5 Ah Day
4-1
6-1
#2 Grand Traverse
6-1
9-1
#3 Silver Edition
6-1
9-1
#8 Ravalo is 8 for 16 at the distance with last 10 all against stakes company. #5 Recent stakes winner and 5 of 7 at the distance with lots of backclass. Ignore last race at mile #2 Grand Traverse has been showing good form of late, but beware of high speed figure set over sloppy sealed track in last at Chuchill #3 Winner of the 50k Hot Springs hdcp at Oaklawn could step up with Leparoux
Race 11 Dixie Stakes G2 for 3 and up
#3 Parading
3-1
9-2
#4 Kiss The Kid
7-2
5-1
#1 Proudinsky
4-1
6-1
#7 Wesley
6-1
9-1
#3 Comes into race off a nice G3 win and has had a little more time to recover than #1. #4 has won 3 of his last 4 and rarely misfires. He is well rested and should run well here. #1 Proudinsky just bumped heads 2 weeks ago with arguably the best older turf horse in N.A. (Einstein). He will be a factor if he can come back quickly off that race. #7 Had a nice tune-up opening weekend at CRC, but this field is much better than the one he faced in Florida.
R12 The Preakness G1 3 yo's
P# 12th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#9 Pioneeror The Nile
3-1
9-2
#3 Musket Man
7-2
5-1
#5 Friesan Fire
4-1
6-1
#1 Big Drama
5-1
8-1
I'm deliberately ignoring, admittedly perhaps to my detriment, the publicity horse Rachel Alexandra and the Cinderella horse Mine That Bird for reasons I've already discussed. I think Big Drama could run a Big Race here although, supposedly, history regarding fresh horses coming into the Preakness would suggest not. Still, he should be a pace factor and make RA run a little harder than maybe she is used to early.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Early Preakness Thoughts
I spent my whole lunch hour today looking at the Preakness Stakes past performances and thinking about how to approach the race. As much as I looked forward to the Derby this is a far more interesting race to me.
The more I thought about this race, the more I came to the conclusion that the proper strategic approach to this is as important as trying to pick the winner. It would be very easy to pick Rachel Alexandra, Mine The Bird, or Pioneerof The Nile, and no one would fault me if I was wrong. Of course, no one would be knocking down my door to congratulate me if I was right either.
I decided that there were definitely going to be two underlaid horses in this race. The 8-5 morning line for Rachel Alexandra seems to generous. If you can get that price play it if you think she will win. She may be the best horse in the race. Yet, as we all know, the best horse doesn't always win the race, and I'm not convinced she is the best horse. More on that later.
Mine The Bird is 6-1 in the morning line. My opinion is that 6-1 is already an underlay for Mine The Bird. Mine The Bird has just run the race of his life, with the trip of his life, with the perfect rider for that trip and beat the best 3yo colts in the country. No doubt, the planets were perfectly aligned for Calvin Borel two weeks ago. Sometimes 3 year olds just "wake up" that way and stay good; sometimes its just a flash in the pan and they return to their old ways. I don't know which is the correct direction for this horse. Who know's, maybe he just had alot of pent up energy from the fabled 3 day trailer trek from New Mexico to Churchill Downs? Do they test for peyote in the Derby?
Now all you Rachel lovers are going to start hating on me, I know, but I see a few reasons why she may be a vulnerable favorite and overbet. First, and this has nothing to do with her ability, she is what Mark Cramer would refer to as the "Publicity Horse" in the race. After all the big to do about the ownership and trainer change, Calvin Borel making the historic choice to leave the Derby winner for her, the conspiracy controversy, and the mere fact that a girl is taking on the boys is enough for all the press coverage she is getting. It doesn't hurt that she just may beat the boys.
However, I have been informed from several sources that horses are creatures of habit. Rachel Alexandra had a trainer and a barn she obviously had a good relationship with. Just like that she is taken away from everything she is familiar with and handed over to different people with different habits and ways of going about the business of horse racing. Steve Asmussen is an excellent trainer, no doubt, but, seriously, how much better can he make the horse than she already is. I see only downside possibilities from this change. Maybe horses don't really mind as long as they are well fed and cared for as I'm sure she is.
Secondly, as impressive as Rachel's win in the Oaks was (you don't mind if I call her Rachel do you?), it was really nothing more than an allowance race for non winners of 2 other than maiden, claiming or starter once Justwhistlndixie dropped out. In fact, once she figured out how the game is played, no one has really challenged her. Assuming Rachel was not in the Oaks, three fourths of the Derby field would've won that race without too much trouble if not as impressively.
Rachel will not find the pickins so easy this time and how she reacts to the higher level of competition will do much to determine the outcome of the race. While the colts having been knocking heads all Winter and Spring, Rachel has had it relatively easy.
Finally, until about 1.5 weeks ago, Rachel was never intended for this or any other race today. Her next race was to be on Belmont day as I recall. Now, I'm not a trainer, but I'd lay odds that if I were planning to race two weeks after the Oaks, I would've approached the races differently than if I had not been planning to run. Will she be ready to fire her best? I won't take low odds on it.
Next time I'll tell who I like and why.
The more I thought about this race, the more I came to the conclusion that the proper strategic approach to this is as important as trying to pick the winner. It would be very easy to pick Rachel Alexandra, Mine The Bird, or Pioneerof The Nile, and no one would fault me if I was wrong. Of course, no one would be knocking down my door to congratulate me if I was right either.
I decided that there were definitely going to be two underlaid horses in this race. The 8-5 morning line for Rachel Alexandra seems to generous. If you can get that price play it if you think she will win. She may be the best horse in the race. Yet, as we all know, the best horse doesn't always win the race, and I'm not convinced she is the best horse. More on that later.
Mine The Bird is 6-1 in the morning line. My opinion is that 6-1 is already an underlay for Mine The Bird. Mine The Bird has just run the race of his life, with the trip of his life, with the perfect rider for that trip and beat the best 3yo colts in the country. No doubt, the planets were perfectly aligned for Calvin Borel two weeks ago. Sometimes 3 year olds just "wake up" that way and stay good; sometimes its just a flash in the pan and they return to their old ways. I don't know which is the correct direction for this horse. Who know's, maybe he just had alot of pent up energy from the fabled 3 day trailer trek from New Mexico to Churchill Downs? Do they test for peyote in the Derby?
Now all you Rachel lovers are going to start hating on me, I know, but I see a few reasons why she may be a vulnerable favorite and overbet. First, and this has nothing to do with her ability, she is what Mark Cramer would refer to as the "Publicity Horse" in the race. After all the big to do about the ownership and trainer change, Calvin Borel making the historic choice to leave the Derby winner for her, the conspiracy controversy, and the mere fact that a girl is taking on the boys is enough for all the press coverage she is getting. It doesn't hurt that she just may beat the boys.
However, I have been informed from several sources that horses are creatures of habit. Rachel Alexandra had a trainer and a barn she obviously had a good relationship with. Just like that she is taken away from everything she is familiar with and handed over to different people with different habits and ways of going about the business of horse racing. Steve Asmussen is an excellent trainer, no doubt, but, seriously, how much better can he make the horse than she already is. I see only downside possibilities from this change. Maybe horses don't really mind as long as they are well fed and cared for as I'm sure she is.
Secondly, as impressive as Rachel's win in the Oaks was (you don't mind if I call her Rachel do you?), it was really nothing more than an allowance race for non winners of 2 other than maiden, claiming or starter once Justwhistlndixie dropped out. In fact, once she figured out how the game is played, no one has really challenged her. Assuming Rachel was not in the Oaks, three fourths of the Derby field would've won that race without too much trouble if not as impressively.
Rachel will not find the pickins so easy this time and how she reacts to the higher level of competition will do much to determine the outcome of the race. While the colts having been knocking heads all Winter and Spring, Rachel has had it relatively easy.
Finally, until about 1.5 weeks ago, Rachel was never intended for this or any other race today. Her next race was to be on Belmont day as I recall. Now, I'm not a trainer, but I'd lay odds that if I were planning to race two weeks after the Oaks, I would've approached the races differently than if I had not been planning to run. Will she be ready to fire her best? I won't take low odds on it.
Next time I'll tell who I like and why.
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