Phandcapper and HANA Pool Races: May 30

Another Saturday and another installment on Public Handicapper and the HANA Pool race of the week.



By now the word is out that Rachel Alexandra will not run in the Belmont. I don't have much to add to that which has already been said elsewhere I'm sure. I do remember reading somewhere that Asmussen had said that she did not come out of the Preakness as well as they liked. I remember thinking she was looking tiredl towards the end of the race, but then after watching the replay, I thought perhaps I was mistaken with my initial impression. I'm so confused. All the same, the Belmont seems to be attracting a good field. Unfortunately, it appears Friesan Fire will also miss the Belmont. At least I won't have to burn anymore money on him for awhile.



And now for the Picks.



The first race on deck is the McKayMackenna S for F and M 3up which have not won an open sweepstakes on the turf in 2008 or 2009



I found this race to be a very competitive brain buster. In my mind Scolara is something of a stand out here, but after that its anybody's guess. In addition to my choices below, keep an eye on #9 Shadiyna who ran a real good race in an OC50kn2x last out which she might've won except for getting bumped before the wire.




Belmont R8
4:44

#6 Scolara
2-1
3-1
#2 La Hernanda
5-1
8-1
#10 Kristi With A K
5-1
8-1
#8 Pastel Gal
5-1
8-1
In what looks to be a very competitive race, #6 Scolara gets the favorite position based on previous stakes and grade 3 showing. After Scolara you can take your pick #2 La Hernanda comes off a 5 month layoff after beating open alw company in Tampa (note she was dq'ed and placed 2nd). Plenty of time to rest after achieving the top figure in the field #10 K with a K has only finished OTM once in 9 starts and is unbeaten in 2 tries on Belmont Turf. #8 Pastel Gal bested K with a K in a Jan. GP allowance.


The next race is the HANA Pool race. Lots of grumbling on the HANA message board about playing such a high profile track. Not from me. Sheesh, can't we all just get along? This race looks to be very competitive; however it is difficult to pick against Semaphore Man here. Though, as usual, I'll be letting the odds do my picking for me.



G3 Aristides for 3 up




Churchill R10
5:29

#6 Semaphore Man
5-2
4-1
#5 Sok Sok
3-1
9-2
#2 Cassoulet
6-1
9-1
#7 Premium Wine
6-1
9-1
#6 Semaphore Man never seems to have a bad race except when on artificial comes into race rested after Oaklawn Park G3 win. #5 Sok Sok is a 5 of 10 winner and 3 of 6 at the distance gets Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan. #2 Cassoulet looks to be on the improve and in good form and may surprise in this spot. #7 Premium Wine flashed alot of speed in NY last spring before going on the shelf for 8 months. Has been working regularly since early April and is the fastest of the group if he has regained his old form.



Moving out west to Golden Gate Fields for the Golden Gate Fields Turf Stakes-G3 for 4 and up the biggest surprise may be the field size at 9. Of course this race attracted several SoCal runners and looks to be a good one.




GGF R8
7:23

#3 Spring House
2-1
3-1
#5 Yacht Spotter
4-1
6-1
#6 Porfido
5-1
8-1
#9 Obrigado
5-1
8-1
#3 Spring House is a distance specialist and the only recent Graded stakes race winner in the bunch. Lately running in good company the 7 yo gelding goes slumming up to GGF in search of some Graded stakes money. After bleeding in the San Luis Rey, SH came back with a good effort in the San Juan Capistrano. Always deferential to the home team and horses for courses #5 Yacht Spotter is 5 for 8 and 8 times ITM at GGF. This front running type is stetching out to this distance for the first time, can be rated, and often these types of races can be won on the front end. Witness Criticism last week at Belmont. Besides the distance the worry for YS will be the speedy Shem at post 1 who may not be inclined to let YS have an easy time at the front. #6 Porfido and #9 Obrigado have each been chasing SH around alot. Porfido seems to be at his best at these longer distances and Obrigado was a mere 3/4 lengths behind SH last out.

Finally we wind up the evening in Hollywood. Enjoy it while you have it. The race is the Gamely Stakes-G1. I expect Black Mamba will get wound up for a big stretch run again. I think she was clearly the best at the end in the Santa Barbara and am not convinced she lost that race. Check the photo below and you decide. Meanwhile, here are the selections.




Hol R9
8:08
#10 Black Mamba
3-1
7-2
#4 Diamond Diva
7-2
5-1
#7 Magical Fantasy
4-1
6-1
#1 Tuscan Diva
6-1
9-1
#10 Black Mamba wound up going 9 wide, (comments say 6, but check the replay) to just miss and should turn the tables on the 7 with a little luck #4 Diamond Diva is the Horse for Course pick in here and has a victory over the top choice should be near front meaning less traffic and less that can go wrong. #7 Magical Fantasy rode the rails in the Santa Barbara while BM took the long route and just managed to hang on. In fact, check the win photo as it looks like a dead heat to me. Look for a different outcome this time. #1 Tuscan Diva should get the early lead and has top rider Bejarano aboard to see if she can be coaxed all the way home. I think the field is too strong for her, but worth a shot at a long price.



Black Mamba is the outside horse.

Felonius Wagering

This comes under the category of learning something new every day. I've just learned today that the HANA race of the week is Saturday, Race 6 at Hawthorne through the following letter.

You may have heard or read that Turf Paradise was to be the target track this Saturday for the HANA Get In The Pool race. Unfortunately, many horseplayers have expressed some big concerns about the law in Arizona which makes it a felony to use an ADW. Many players were very uncomfortable with this. At the HANA conference call Wednesday night it was discussed and decided that we would NOT bet Turf Paradise because of this law.We will be doing R6 at Hawthorne this Saturday 4/25/2009 instead. This is a stakes race with an eleven horse field with a morning line favorite at 4-1. NICE AND JUICY. We also decided to target the RACE and not a specific pool. This way you can handicap the race as you normally would and bet the pool (WPS, Exacta, Tri, Super, etc.) where you see the most value.GOOD LUCK ON SATURDAY.Sincerely,Your HANA Team

I wish they had given more details regarding this absurd law. As I have been known to place a wager at Turf Paradise from the comfort of my living room now and again, I was concerned that I had committed some kind of vile, criminal act in the process. At least now, as I understand it, I'm only a criminal if I placed that wager at some location other than an OTB or the track in Arizona, so I guess I have not violated the law after all. Good, I'm not giving the money back.

Right now, if it were not for ADW, I would be personna non grata from racing at the moment due to the prescence of that new Jack Russell in my house. He demands your attention! I can't even handicap a race at home right now. So each day I have been dutifully downloading a form and finding a race or two at a western track like Hollywood, Golden Gate, or, dare I say it, Turf Paradise and playing the game when I get home from work. As you can see by my little box on the left, this tactic is working out pretty well for me. Thanks Patrick!

Today I scored with a double longshot, each horse at 11-1, exacta at Hollywood in race 3. The funny thing is, I handicapped this race during lunch with no idea of the who the swamis at TVG would like. They, the swamis, like the one horse and so did I as he appeared to be the speed on the rail, and for some reason they also liked the 5 horse. I didn't consider the 5 to be a contender because he had been losing pretty regularly to claimers and the others seemed to have been racing against better. I also rejected the 2 because he had been vanned off last out and even Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert couldn't lure me to that one. The 3 I had rejected because his speed figures just didn't measure up to the others, so unless everyone else faltered and the 3 got better, there was no way for him to win. That left me with the 1,4,6, and 7. The one opened at even money and ended up around 8/5. Underlay, no play. The 4 opened at 5 to 1. The 4 was my 4th choice and I needed 9/1 to play him to win. The 6 and 7 both opened at 14-1 so I licked my chops and got ready to split my win wager and box 6,7/1,4,6,7.

Then the TVG people started talking about the race and they almost talked me off the 4 in favor of the 5 until I referred back to my notes on the race and reminded myself what I didn't like about the 5 and what I liked about the 4. As race time approached the 6 had dropped to underlay status as the 4 had steadily drifted up and was lingering at 8-1, still not enough for a wager. The 7 was pretty solid at 11-1 so he was my huckleberry for the win wager and the key horse in the exacta box in which I also included the 5 as a concession to the wisdom of the TVG commentators. After entering my bet in the TBA spreadsheet I turned back to the odds and saw that the 4 horse had now dropped to 11-1. Had I been gifted with the ability to see the future, this knowledge would've changed my bet, for the better, but I now I had to live with the hand I'd dealt myself.

Well not only the 1, but the 2 and the 5 all raced for the lead and set some torrid fractions. The 6 trailed the lead group by about 3 lengths with the 7 a length further back. The 4 must've been somewhere in the back. As they came around the turn the 6 and 7 both made their runs and over took the lead group at the top of the stretch. I thought that was the way it would finish until I caught the 4 flying down the stretch. Now I was concerned because if the 7 finishes 3rd, I don't get paid. Fortunately, the 3 overtook the 6 and finished 2nd to the 4 turning my $1 exacta (actually $8 total in the exacta) into $112.20. Not a bad way to spend your lunch hour I'd say.

May the horse be with you

Playing the Home Game

You might've already noticed a change in the Scoreboard to the immediate left. This is due to the fact that I expect to be playing the home game more often for the foreseeable future. The new arrival in my house, now officially named Max (Ruffian was rejected), is very demanding and it is difficult to get much done with a six week old puppy requiring constant attention. Because of this, I think it would be very unfair of me to abandon my darling wife (you thought I was going to say puppy, didn't you?). Therefore my weekly forays to the local racing facilities will be somewhat curtailed at least until the puppy can be trusted to fend for himself a little better in a few months or years or til death do us part.

I started out using the board to follow my Public Handicapper picks, but that is not really an accurate measure of what I'm doing. I'm going to say this knowing full well all the snarky comments I an leaving myself open to. My handicapping methodology is not so much about picking the winner. I prefer to pick losers! Just kidding ;-D Actually, I prefer to pick contenders and then make a play or not based on my opinion of fair odds. Because of that the few wagers I put in there were not necessarily real wagers. That discouraged me and I found it to be pointless. And since I do most of my wagering at the track, it didn't really seem correct to come back after the fact and put up numbers.

Therefore, I removed the phony wagers and the ones you see there now are ones I made and posted in real time. For tomorrow, I'm going to look at a few races from Gulfstream and Keeneland and maybe even head up to Woodbine for a race. Tune in occassionally and you'll be able to see what the weasel is up to in real time.

Oh, and don't worry about that 34% ROI. It won't last very long. I'll be satified just to keep it on the positive side. I found a couple of playable races at Golden Gate for this afternoon. Got the exacta in race two and a dead heat in race 6 turned my 5-2 into 4 -5. So tune in early and tune in often. See what I'm playing then do something else, you can't lose that way.

May the horse be with you

Hooky!

I got to play hooky from work today, sort of. Having a 1:00 dentist appointment, conveniently located near Gulfstream Park, I boogied on out of that dentist's office as soon as they would let me go and managed to get to good ol' GP in time to see the 3rd race go off.

Ah great joy under partly cloudy skies and a very pleasant 74 degrees (I'm too lazy to use superscript). Even managed to win an investment on the 9-1 Mi Carola in the 7th race making for an extra enjoyable day, indeed.

Also watched Kiaran McLaughlin sweat out the race of the heavily favored Hellvelyn who barely beat at the wire the speedy Piratesonthelake. "Never a doubt," he said.

I don't know what's going to happen to Magna Entertainment, but apparently the shopping, office, and entertainment complex located between the track and U.S. 1 is moving right along. There is a story at Miami Herald. com today that says the says the 85% completed project now has 50% of its space leased to prospective tenants. Such tenants will include Crate and Barrel (who needs crates and barrels?) and The Container Store. In addition there will be up to 10 restaurants and other boutique, specialty type stores. In addition, the developer has cut a deal with the Hallandale Beach City Commision that gives them a share of the projected increased tax revenue projected to reach up to $900k annually. That is of course, if anyone is still in business by 2010. Here's the link if your interested in the entire article. http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/922000.html

I noticed that mention of Magna Entertainment was absent. I have no particular love for MEC. I really don't know that much about them except that they are basically broke. Still, I would hate to lose the Gulfstream Winter racing season. Year round racing at Calder Race Course just won't cut it. I love the full competitive fields. It's so much easier finding overlays among the throngs of socialites and vacationers just out for a daily lark than entering the shark pit and short fields at Calder Race Course.

And speaking of short fields, during my phone conversation with JJ Tuttle (remember him?) he strongly suggested betting the longest shot in a short field. Now a short field is defined as 7 or fewer horses. He wrote about this angle in one of his books, I forget which one. Of course, he offered no data to support this thesis, but because this one is a no brainer to test, I have decided to put it to the test. So far this season, this has been a winning angle at Gulfstream with a 10% hit rate out of 50 such races. The angle shows a $175.80 profit based on a $2.00 win bet for each longest shot contender. However, after going back through all of Gulfstream's charts for the 2009 meet so far, I started on CRC. I haven't gotten very far yet, but after 22 qualifying races the angle has been shut out. Now it is possible that tracks like Calder attract a savvier clientele regarding the handicapping of horses than does Gulfstream Park. I will continue tracking Gulfstream through the remainder of the season and work my way back through all the Calder charts that I have. I don't think I have all the charts for CRC on my hard drive, but I think I can get them if I look hard enough. If anyone want's to share in this little project, I suggest you choose an upper echelon track like, say Santa Anita and a more pedestrian track such as Golden Gate Fields. As for me, I'll be tracking the upcoming Keeneland and Churchill Downs meets. I'll keep you up to date with my results. Who knows, maybe I'll owe Mr. Tuttle an apology.

See ya next time.

Public Handicapper Picks

Not much time as I have holiday duties to attend to.

Just enough to say that yours truly was humbled yesterday. Not even my good ol' standby, The Fairgrounds could save me yesterday. That being said, use these selections at your own risk. Remember the first column are what I consider to be fair odds and the second is suggested wager odds.

First the Fairgrounds Races the Woodchopper Stakes and the Sugarbowl Stakes.


#6 My Boy Charlie
3-1
9-2
#8 Macho Again
7-2
5-1
#2 Jimmy Simms
4-1
6-1
#1 Evade
6-1
9-1


#6 Euro invader is a group 1 winner in France and is one for one on the FG turf and appears to be peaking at the right time here. #8 is the North American class of this race, but has never run in anger over the sod; however workout line shows some efforts at Saratoga in Aug so can't be ignored. #2 is an improving 3yo who just missed in a G3 effort last out. The slightly shorter distance may make the difference. #1 any time Leparoux is on the grass his mount deserves respect and the horse does seem to be getting better, but this will be his first outing against some really strong competitors take only at long odds.


#4 Beer Pong
3-1
9-2
#8 Screen Your Friend
7-2
5-1
#7 Big Push
9-2
7-1
#9 Ask Joe
5-1
8-1


#4 Has preferred PP with Hi% Rider and Trainer and gets slight nod in a highly contentious race. #8 G3 winner back in July should move forward of last effort. #7 Held lead all the way to the end in Restricted Fl Bred race at Calder shortens up a furlong here #9 Has not run a bad race in 3 outings and may be as good as any here.

The Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate Fields


#3 Cut The Check
3-1
9-2
#4 Adriatic Moon
7-2
5-1
#5 Merus Miami
9-2
7-1
#7 Run It
5-1
8-1


#3 Speedster strectching out is classic play gets the first choice in another contentious race. #4 Gets leading rider R Baze, so you can probably count on this one being severely underlaid, but just in case. #5 I like the way this one came from off the pace in debut, unusual for a 2 yo, and the ability to be rated may be useful again. Also eligible to improve speed in 2nd effort. #7 2 time winner of Alw starter races could be a tough customer.

And finally the Cash Call Futurity from Hollywood


#11 Mr. Rod
3-1
9-2
#5 Pioneerof the Nile
7-2
5-1
#10 Bittel Road
9-2
7-1
#4 Axel Foley
6-1
9-1


#11 has the speed on a speed favoring track and is going turf to fake dirt to boot. #5 comes off a decent effort at the Breeder's cup and should be charging late. #10 Just missed to the top choice last out and would not be a shocker. #4 probably would be a minor shocker, but the British shipper does get first lasix and will likely be over looked by the crowd. Worth a flyer at a big price.

That's it for today. Now out to fight the holiday mob. Hopefully I'll make it back in time to check out my luck on TVG.

Results,

Posted after ninth race at FG: So far bad day for PH standings but good day for bankroll.

No play in the 8th race where the 3rd pick Jimmy Simms managed to avoid the chaos coming down the stretch and prevail.

I knew the 9th was wide open, my favorite, Beer Pong, was a scratch, so the chosen winner, by default was Screen Your Friend. The 7 horse, Big Push was overbet but both Screen Your Friend and my now 3rd choice Ask Joe went off at double figure odds. I split the bet between them. Something you can profitably do according to Steve Fierro with high odds contenders. Screen Your Friend was no where to be found. Ask Joe overcame a very game Big Push and Valid Stripes to prevail by a nose paying $24.80. I hope you had it.

The Cash Call futurity was won by Pioneerof the Nile who became my default choice when Mr. Rob was scratched. Pioneerof the Nile showed a lot of heart in holding off I Want Revenge down the stretch to give me a winner in the PH contest. However, my huckleberry for the dough in this race was Bittel Road. Bittel Road looked like he might make a move around the 3/4 pole but then flattened out and was never a real factor.

The Gold Rush Futurity at Golden Gate was another terrific race. The PH choice Cut the Check tracked the pace for most of the race but lacked energy to close the deal in the stretch. My money wound up on Adriatic Moon who was looking good for a while in the stretch, but Merus Miami took over convincingly at the end to win by a length. And you thought I just had him as a contender as a hunch bet because of the name.

So in the end, one chalky win out of 4 picks for the PH contest and one 11-1 win bet out of 3 for real money. I'll take the 11-1 win bet over the former any day.