Today's the day Calder Casino and Race Course honors the Florida Thoroughbred Industry with a Saturday card featuring 8 stakes races for Florida bred horses with a total purse of $1,000,000.
Trainer Marty Wolfson must be expecting a big day as he has brought in Julien Leparoux to ride all of his entries including It's a Bird in the feature race.
The weather is perfectly sunny without a cloud in the sky meaning the races meant to be run on turf will be run on turf.
Selections and odds for today's card follow
Race 1: 1 mile 70 yards Md12500 for fillies and mares 3, 4, and 5 years old
#1 Nistelrooy of Joy 6/5--9-5
#10 Sea Hag 7/2--5/1
#7 Cruise Connection 6/1--9/1
Race 2: 5 furlongs (turf) Opt. Clm 16k/N1X for Fillies and Mares 3 year olds and up
#7 Runaway Heart 8/5--5/2
#4 Determined Gal 3/1--9/2
#9 French Dip 9/2--7/1
Race 3: 6 furlongs Clm 6250 for Fillies and Mares 3 year olds and up
#6 Unexpected Blessing 2/1--3/1
#4 Blushing Tiger 3/1--9/2
#5 Joan's Royal Dawn 7/2--5/1
Race 4: 8.5 furlongs (turf) The John Franks Juvenile Fillies Turf 100k for 2 year old registered Florida Breds
#10 D'lucci Girl 2/1--3/1
#2 Winsocki 5/2--4/1
#8 Suzanne 4/1--6/1
Race 5: 7 furlongs, The Jack Prince Juvenile 150k 2 year old registered Florida Breds
#4 Mr. Green 5/2--4/1
#7 Good To Be Seen 3/1--9/2
#6 Gesu 6/1--9/1
#1 Manny Who 6/1--9/1
Race 6: 7 furlongs, The Joe O'Farrell Juvenile 150k for Filly 2 year old registered Florida Breds
#7 Sweetlalabye 3/1--9/2
#2 Rosebud's Ridge 7/2--5/1
#4 Joanie's Catch 9/2--7/1
#1 Winey Taylor 5/1--8/1
Race 7: 8.5 furlongs (turf) The Arthur I. Appleton Juvenile Turf 100k for 2 year old registered Florida Breds
#3 Family Foundation 1/1--3/2
#9 Show the Way J 5/2--4/1
Race 8: 6 furlongs The Jack Dudley Sprint Handicap 150k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds
#8 Pashito the Che 1/1--3/1
#6 Little Nick 5/2--4/1
Race 9: 8.5 furlongs The Elmer Heubeck Distaff Handicap 200k for Fillies and Mares 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds
#6 Jessica Is Back 6/5--9/5
#9 Sweet Repent 4/1--6/1
#5 Even Road 5/1--8/1
Race 10: 9 furlongs (turf) The Bonnie Heath Turf Cup Handicap 150k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds
#8 Soldier's Dancer 6/5--9/5
#3 Pickapocket 4/1--6/1
#5 Fearless Eagle 5/1--8/1
Race 11: 9 furlongs The Carl G. Rose Classic Handicap 200k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds
#3 It's a Bird 6/5--9/5
#5 Dream Maestro 7/2--5/1
#7 Temo's Dream 6/1--9/1
Check out http://www.casetherace.com/ for full analysis of this race.
Race 12: 7 furlongs clm5000 for 3 year olds and up
#9 Tebow Go 8/5---5/2
#6 Diesel Power 3/1--9/2
#5 Sir Oso 9/2--7-1
The late pick 4 (races 7-10) looks very hittable which means no big payoff, but only a small investment required. I'm going to take a shot at hitting it cold with all my top picks. If you want spread out just a little then single the top choices in races 7 and 8 and the three contenders for 9 and 10 for only a $9 investment.
I'm Off
Showing posts with label How to win at horse racing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label How to win at horse racing. Show all posts
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Waiting For The Cup
I don't really feel like doing the Public Handicapper races today. Does that make me a bad person? The week has been full. I really haven't had the time to get into them and do them justice. As I've said before, better not to do them at all than to be half-assed about it.
I'll make it up to you, I promise. For starters, I have the entire 13 race CRC card scoped out for you. The weather is expected to be sunny and warm so all the races scheduled for turf should actually make it to the sod today.
In addition, I will bring selections for all the Breeder's Cup races as I get them. I actually have the early entries now, but I can't see wasting all the ink, paper, and time putting any effort into them until the entries have been finalized and the post positions drawn. I think that happens on Tuesday, so I'll be working all day Wednesday and probably most of Thursday poring over racing forms and results charts.
My general game plan for the big event will be to play CRC on both days as I normally would and try to be selective and pick my spots with the Cup races. We'll see if I can resist the temptation to plunge my brains out on each race.
Reminder that my stint as a guest handicapper at http://www.casetherace.com/ continues this week with a full analysis of today's race 8 at CRC.
Calder Race Track Selections for October 31.
Race 1: 1 mile Clm6250N2L for fillies and mares 3 years old and up
#7 Cynthia's Secret
#1 Caveat Cat
#8 Dibs On Debbie
#3 Honey Of A Dream
Race 2: 6.5 fur. Clm16000N2L fillies 2 years old
#2 Grand Decision
#1 Forgiven
#3 She's A Mambo
#5 Full N Sassy
Race 3: 1 mile Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for fillies 2 years old
#3 Golden Humor
#2b Kate's Holiday
#1a Super Girlie
#7 Come Sunday
Race 4: 7.5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 21k for fillies 3, 4, and 5 years old
#7 Lady Zeig
#5 Manerbe
#8 Two Cheers
#6 Starland Queen
Race 5: 6.5 fur. Starter Alw 16000 for 3 years old and up
#6 Starship Valor
#8 Caixa Eletronica
#3 Christmas Parade
Race 6: 5 fur. MdClm 12500 for fillies and mares 3, 4, and 5 years old
#9 High Dollar Escort
#10 My Espresso
#12 Savannah Sings
Race 7: 8.5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 years old
#5 Big Joey
#7 Lion Thunder
#11 Mr. Postman
#10 Bold Tiger
Race 8: 7 fur. Clm10000b 3 years old and 4 years old and upward which have never won three races
#5 Brandy Bai
#4 Girl Band
#1 One Proud Cat
#3 My Best China
See http://www.casetherace.com/ for full analysis
Race 9: 5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 year olds
#5 Sliding In
#3 More Drama
#7 Tiger Willie
#2 Fortunate Rooster
Race 10: 5.5 fur. Clm12500N2L for 2 year olds
#3 My Good Friend
#8 Mega Party
#4 Nothing's Perfect
#6 By Your Side
Pick 4 tickets for races 7-10 brought to you by DRF's Ticketmaker and the Chalk Eating Weasel
1. 5/5/5/3 times 2
2. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/5/3
3. 5/5/3,7/3
4. 5/5/5/4,6,8
5. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/3,7/3
6. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/5/4,6,8
7. 5/5/3,7/4,6,8
8. 5/5/2/3
Total cost $25.00 for a .50 base bet
Race 11: 1 mile(Turf) Alw 21700N1X for 3 year olds and upward
#8 Regis
#1 Bandit Prince
#11 Caravel
#3 Sky Gate
Race 12: 6 fur. Starter Alw 16000 for fillies and mares 3 years old and upward.
#2 Wyatt's Women
#7 Margaret Smile
#5 Meadow Touch
#8 Suave Royalty
Race 13: 1 mile Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 year olds
#5 Forty Nine Acres
#1 Taxes Taxes Taxes
#4 Hellen's Cause
#9 Backstage Lounge
That's all for today. Good Luck and enjoy the races
I'll make it up to you, I promise. For starters, I have the entire 13 race CRC card scoped out for you. The weather is expected to be sunny and warm so all the races scheduled for turf should actually make it to the sod today.
In addition, I will bring selections for all the Breeder's Cup races as I get them. I actually have the early entries now, but I can't see wasting all the ink, paper, and time putting any effort into them until the entries have been finalized and the post positions drawn. I think that happens on Tuesday, so I'll be working all day Wednesday and probably most of Thursday poring over racing forms and results charts.
My general game plan for the big event will be to play CRC on both days as I normally would and try to be selective and pick my spots with the Cup races. We'll see if I can resist the temptation to plunge my brains out on each race.
Reminder that my stint as a guest handicapper at http://www.casetherace.com/ continues this week with a full analysis of today's race 8 at CRC.
Calder Race Track Selections for October 31.
Race 1: 1 mile Clm6250N2L for fillies and mares 3 years old and up
#7 Cynthia's Secret
#1 Caveat Cat
#8 Dibs On Debbie
#3 Honey Of A Dream
Race 2: 6.5 fur. Clm16000N2L fillies 2 years old
#2 Grand Decision
#1 Forgiven
#3 She's A Mambo
#5 Full N Sassy
Race 3: 1 mile Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for fillies 2 years old
#3 Golden Humor
#2b Kate's Holiday
#1a Super Girlie
#7 Come Sunday
Race 4: 7.5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 21k for fillies 3, 4, and 5 years old
#7 Lady Zeig
#5 Manerbe
#8 Two Cheers
#6 Starland Queen
Race 5: 6.5 fur. Starter Alw 16000 for 3 years old and up
#6 Starship Valor
#8 Caixa Eletronica
#3 Christmas Parade
Race 6: 5 fur. MdClm 12500 for fillies and mares 3, 4, and 5 years old
#9 High Dollar Escort
#10 My Espresso
#12 Savannah Sings
Race 7: 8.5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 years old
#5 Big Joey
#7 Lion Thunder
#11 Mr. Postman
#10 Bold Tiger
Race 8: 7 fur. Clm10000b 3 years old and 4 years old and upward which have never won three races
#5 Brandy Bai
#4 Girl Band
#1 One Proud Cat
#3 My Best China
See http://www.casetherace.com/ for full analysis
Race 9: 5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 year olds
#5 Sliding In
#3 More Drama
#7 Tiger Willie
#2 Fortunate Rooster
Race 10: 5.5 fur. Clm12500N2L for 2 year olds
#3 My Good Friend
#8 Mega Party
#4 Nothing's Perfect
#6 By Your Side
Pick 4 tickets for races 7-10 brought to you by DRF's Ticketmaker and the Chalk Eating Weasel
1. 5/5/5/3 times 2
2. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/5/3
3. 5/5/3,7/3
4. 5/5/5/4,6,8
5. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/3,7/3
6. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/5/4,6,8
7. 5/5/3,7/4,6,8
8. 5/5/2/3
Total cost $25.00 for a .50 base bet
Race 11: 1 mile(Turf) Alw 21700N1X for 3 year olds and upward
#8 Regis
#1 Bandit Prince
#11 Caravel
#3 Sky Gate
Race 12: 6 fur. Starter Alw 16000 for fillies and mares 3 years old and upward.
#2 Wyatt's Women
#7 Margaret Smile
#5 Meadow Touch
#8 Suave Royalty
Race 13: 1 mile Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 year olds
#5 Forty Nine Acres
#1 Taxes Taxes Taxes
#4 Hellen's Cause
#9 Backstage Lounge
That's all for today. Good Luck and enjoy the races
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Festival of the Sun
As I write this from my Florida room a mere few minutes from Calder Race Course the skies are sunny with the temperature at 77o. Contrast to Toronto where the temperature is a chilly 34 with Rain/Snow showers forecast.
I actually have the Nearctic and Candian International Races handicapped, but considering the current conditions, I feel that all that work is out the window into the bright Florida sunshine now. Instead, I will bring you the 11th race from Calder, the G3 Spendabuck Hcp and the Senator Ken Maddy Hdcp (G3) from Santa Anita.
As a bonus, to make up for the rainy/snowy Woodbine race, I will give you my stakes picks for the other Calder stakes on this big South Florida Racing day.
Now for race 11 from CRC
With the exception of Lady Shatzi who is making her North American debut from Peru, the horses running in this race are old friends who have frequently shared the same track.
Of this group, #9 Motovato, trained by Marty Wolfson and ridden by Eddie Castro is clearly the class of the field as the winner of 2 of the last 3 stakes he has run at Calder including a 2nd place finish behind the late Finallymadeit in the G3 Memorial Day Hdcp. I do have a race where I will try to beat Wolfson, just not this one.
The 2nd choice #10 Mambo Meister has spent most of the Summer running on grass but has also shown ability on dirt. Therefore, the surface switch should be of no consequence. Mambo Meister is a capable 4 year old who gets leading rider Manoel Cruz in the irons. Manny is definitely better on dirt than grass (a little CRC hint: I nearly always consider Cruz a bet against on turf). Mambo's last 3 have all been graded affairs up at Saratoga and Monmouth so he will definitely be feeling the class relief in this field.
The #4 Dream Maestro is getting little respect from the morning line maker at 12-1 and the DRF analysts not even getting a nod for 3rd position on the selection sheet. However the Maestro has run some good races and always seems to be hanging around in the money at the end. It may be true that Dream Maestro suffers a bit of seconditis with 9 places in 22 tries, but I don't see how you can completely discount this consistent contender. I wouldn't play him at 2-1 but 12-1 could be another story.
Finally the 4th choice is the #1 Imawildandcrazyguy who won on the slop last out. Really, this is more of a nod to the abilities of Eibar Coa who seems to dominate when he runs at Calder rather than the ability of this one time KY Derby entrant. However, Imawildandcrazyguy exhibits a lot of back class with winnings of $626,745 easily out distancing the other contenders in the field. Play only at a large price.
#9 Motovato
#10 Mambo Meister
#4 Dream Maestro
#1 Imawildandcrazyguy
Off to The Oak Tree at Santa Anita and the SKMaddyH at 6.5f.
The top choice #2 Gotta Have Her has been in the money for her last 8 and 9 of her last 10. She is 3 for 3 at this distance and has 4 for 8 winners at Santa Anita including a G2 win in the Palomar Hdcp last out. Just flat out looks like the one to beat to me.
Maybe #4 Reba Is Tops can be the one to do it. She probably needed her last, finishing 2nd in the Daisycutter at Del Mar and should move forward this time out. She will be tough to beat if she does. Joe Talamo gets the call. Joe and Reba have been a potent combo since teaming up 4 races ago with 2 firsts and 2 seconds. I expect more of the same here.
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle (ooh that is going to make the spell checker go nuts) is the 3rd choice. She is the defending champ and is showing no indication in her recent outings of slowing down. Other than she appears to be in top form at the moment, what more is there to say here.
#5 Tuscan Evening rounds out the contender list in this top field as she returns to a distance that is certainly more to her liking. Fagettabout her last effort at 9 furlongs. This race is where she belongs.
Honestly, there is not much to choose from between these 4. If you want my advice I'd play whichever of the 4 has the longest odds and be very happy about my chances of winning
#2 Gotta Have Her
#4 Reba Is Tops
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle
#5 Tuscan Evening
Without comment here are my other Stakes pick for CRC today
Race 6 The Birdonthewire for 2 yo's 5.5 f
#8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
#5 Mr. Green
#7 Peace At Dawn
#3 Simplifying
Although I haven't been able to find it yet, you should be able to view my full analysis of this race at www.casetherace.com.
Race 7 The Florida Stallion My Dear Girl 400k for 2 yo fillies
#4 Winsockie
#6 Sweetlalabye
#1 Joanie's Catch
#5 Tillie The Tigress
Race 8 The Calder Oaks for 3yo fillies 75k
#6 Providanza
#3 Royal Card
#4 Fire Water
Race 9 The Florida Stallion In Reality for 2 yo's 400k
#6 Jackson Bend
#3 Thank U Philippe
#4 Bim Bam
#8 Allez Reef
Race 10 The Calder Derby(G3) for 3yo's 100k
#3 Sal the Barber (My pick 4 single)
#6 Grand Cash
#2 Livingston Street
#9 Pound Foolish
Race 12 The Cassidy for fillies, 2yo's 75k
#2 Sweet Like Sugar
#7 Rosebud's Ridge
#1 Lavender's Spirit
#6 Slavic Princess
Finally, just in case you're interested, my picks for the two races from Woodbine before I became aware of the conditions
Race 8 The Nearctic (G2)
#11 Jungle Wave
#1 Field Commission
#9 Hero's Reward
#4 Karakorum Elektra
Race 10 The Pattison Canadian International (G1)
#4 Just As Well
#7 Juke Box Jury
#3 Quijano
#8 Spice Route
That's it for this week. Enjoy the racing and Good Luck
I actually have the Nearctic and Candian International Races handicapped, but considering the current conditions, I feel that all that work is out the window into the bright Florida sunshine now. Instead, I will bring you the 11th race from Calder, the G3 Spendabuck Hcp and the Senator Ken Maddy Hdcp (G3) from Santa Anita.
As a bonus, to make up for the rainy/snowy Woodbine race, I will give you my stakes picks for the other Calder stakes on this big South Florida Racing day.
Now for race 11 from CRC
With the exception of Lady Shatzi who is making her North American debut from Peru, the horses running in this race are old friends who have frequently shared the same track.
Of this group, #9 Motovato, trained by Marty Wolfson and ridden by Eddie Castro is clearly the class of the field as the winner of 2 of the last 3 stakes he has run at Calder including a 2nd place finish behind the late Finallymadeit in the G3 Memorial Day Hdcp. I do have a race where I will try to beat Wolfson, just not this one.
The 2nd choice #10 Mambo Meister has spent most of the Summer running on grass but has also shown ability on dirt. Therefore, the surface switch should be of no consequence. Mambo Meister is a capable 4 year old who gets leading rider Manoel Cruz in the irons. Manny is definitely better on dirt than grass (a little CRC hint: I nearly always consider Cruz a bet against on turf). Mambo's last 3 have all been graded affairs up at Saratoga and Monmouth so he will definitely be feeling the class relief in this field.
The #4 Dream Maestro is getting little respect from the morning line maker at 12-1 and the DRF analysts not even getting a nod for 3rd position on the selection sheet. However the Maestro has run some good races and always seems to be hanging around in the money at the end. It may be true that Dream Maestro suffers a bit of seconditis with 9 places in 22 tries, but I don't see how you can completely discount this consistent contender. I wouldn't play him at 2-1 but 12-1 could be another story.
Finally the 4th choice is the #1 Imawildandcrazyguy who won on the slop last out. Really, this is more of a nod to the abilities of Eibar Coa who seems to dominate when he runs at Calder rather than the ability of this one time KY Derby entrant. However, Imawildandcrazyguy exhibits a lot of back class with winnings of $626,745 easily out distancing the other contenders in the field. Play only at a large price.
#9 Motovato
#10 Mambo Meister
#4 Dream Maestro
#1 Imawildandcrazyguy
Off to The Oak Tree at Santa Anita and the SKMaddyH at 6.5f.
The top choice #2 Gotta Have Her has been in the money for her last 8 and 9 of her last 10. She is 3 for 3 at this distance and has 4 for 8 winners at Santa Anita including a G2 win in the Palomar Hdcp last out. Just flat out looks like the one to beat to me.
Maybe #4 Reba Is Tops can be the one to do it. She probably needed her last, finishing 2nd in the Daisycutter at Del Mar and should move forward this time out. She will be tough to beat if she does. Joe Talamo gets the call. Joe and Reba have been a potent combo since teaming up 4 races ago with 2 firsts and 2 seconds. I expect more of the same here.
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle (ooh that is going to make the spell checker go nuts) is the 3rd choice. She is the defending champ and is showing no indication in her recent outings of slowing down. Other than she appears to be in top form at the moment, what more is there to say here.
#5 Tuscan Evening rounds out the contender list in this top field as she returns to a distance that is certainly more to her liking. Fagettabout her last effort at 9 furlongs. This race is where she belongs.
Honestly, there is not much to choose from between these 4. If you want my advice I'd play whichever of the 4 has the longest odds and be very happy about my chances of winning
#2 Gotta Have Her
#4 Reba Is Tops
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle
#5 Tuscan Evening
Without comment here are my other Stakes pick for CRC today
Race 6 The Birdonthewire for 2 yo's 5.5 f
#8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
#5 Mr. Green
#7 Peace At Dawn
#3 Simplifying
Although I haven't been able to find it yet, you should be able to view my full analysis of this race at www.casetherace.com.
Race 7 The Florida Stallion My Dear Girl 400k for 2 yo fillies
#4 Winsockie
#6 Sweetlalabye
#1 Joanie's Catch
#5 Tillie The Tigress
Race 8 The Calder Oaks for 3yo fillies 75k
#6 Providanza
#3 Royal Card
#4 Fire Water
Race 9 The Florida Stallion In Reality for 2 yo's 400k
#6 Jackson Bend
#3 Thank U Philippe
#4 Bim Bam
#8 Allez Reef
Race 10 The Calder Derby(G3) for 3yo's 100k
#3 Sal the Barber (My pick 4 single)
#6 Grand Cash
#2 Livingston Street
#9 Pound Foolish
Race 12 The Cassidy for fillies, 2yo's 75k
#2 Sweet Like Sugar
#7 Rosebud's Ridge
#1 Lavender's Spirit
#6 Slavic Princess
Finally, just in case you're interested, my picks for the two races from Woodbine before I became aware of the conditions
Race 8 The Nearctic (G2)
#11 Jungle Wave
#1 Field Commission
#9 Hero's Reward
#4 Karakorum Elektra
Race 10 The Pattison Canadian International (G1)
#4 Just As Well
#7 Juke Box Jury
#3 Quijano
#8 Spice Route
That's it for this week. Enjoy the racing and Good Luck
Sunday, September 20, 2009
North of the Border
Not much to write home about regarding yesterday's prognostications from KY Downs. But then, you can't say I didn't warn you. Those races didn't cost me any money. Hope you did better.
Now off to Toronto for the Northern Dancer-G1 and the Woodbine Mile-G1 for 3 and up.
In the Northern Dancer I think #9 Marchfield gets the nod as the 5 yo showing excellent form at this time. Also gets the home field advantage with Mark Casse and Patrich Husbands over some of the invaders from the south.
The 2nd choice is the German-bred #2 Musketier (remember Salve Germania who just got flattered by Rutherienne). Musketier has won at this distance over this very track. Apparently Musketier got caught up in a bit of pace duel in the Sword Dancer. Look for Bejarano to mete out Musketier's speed a little more judiciously.
The 3rd choice is last year's winner #6 Champs Elysees. Last year's Northern Dancer winner has yet to win in 2009 but is coming 3rd off the layoff and should be ready for a big effort. Garrett Gomez comes all the way from Cali for the ride.
The 4th and final contender is #8 Just As Well trying the distance for the first time. You can't ignore any horse on grass with Julien Leparoux in the irons. It doesnt' hurt that Just As Well ran a very good 2nd to Gio Ponti in the Arlington Million last out.
Race 10 The Woodbine Mile
This race is very competitive as one might imagine when $1,000,000 is being contested. Is than American or Canadian, I wonder? Some sort of case can be made for nearly every horse in the race. I wish I could offer some unique insight into this race, but it seems to me that the usual suspects are the standouts here.
#8 Rahy's Attorney is the top pick. Toss out his last race, a mile and 3/8ths is too much for the gelding but cutting back to a mile should be right up his alley. Rahy's Attorney will race forwardly but is not a need to lead type which will serve him well as there are a couple of other potential pace factors in the race.
The 2nd choice, and not far behind the top, is the versatile #5 Bribon. The grade 1 winner loves the distance and showed last out that he hasn't lost anything on the turf. Bribon has won 3 in a row with Alan Garcia in the irons and will be making a late run to make it 4.
The 3rd choice #9 Ventura hasn't run since April but that shouldn't be a problem for the 2008 BC Fillie and Mare Sprint Champ. Ventura has no problem coming off the bench and winning big races. She finished 2nd to Rahy's Attorney in this race last year and comes back to even the score.
The 4th pick is a bit of a stretch here, but a horse for the course can't be ignored. #10 Jungle Wave won the G2 Play King last out at Woodbine and is 3 for 3 over the track. He'll have to step up his game to beat these, but may be worth a flyer at a long price. Certainly one to watch for exotics.
That's it for this week kiddies. Let's hope I do better than I did yesterday.
Good Luck
Now off to Toronto for the Northern Dancer-G1 and the Woodbine Mile-G1 for 3 and up.
In the Northern Dancer I think #9 Marchfield gets the nod as the 5 yo showing excellent form at this time. Also gets the home field advantage with Mark Casse and Patrich Husbands over some of the invaders from the south.
The 2nd choice is the German-bred #2 Musketier (remember Salve Germania who just got flattered by Rutherienne). Musketier has won at this distance over this very track. Apparently Musketier got caught up in a bit of pace duel in the Sword Dancer. Look for Bejarano to mete out Musketier's speed a little more judiciously.
The 3rd choice is last year's winner #6 Champs Elysees. Last year's Northern Dancer winner has yet to win in 2009 but is coming 3rd off the layoff and should be ready for a big effort. Garrett Gomez comes all the way from Cali for the ride.
The 4th and final contender is #8 Just As Well trying the distance for the first time. You can't ignore any horse on grass with Julien Leparoux in the irons. It doesnt' hurt that Just As Well ran a very good 2nd to Gio Ponti in the Arlington Million last out.
Race 10 The Woodbine Mile
This race is very competitive as one might imagine when $1,000,000 is being contested. Is than American or Canadian, I wonder? Some sort of case can be made for nearly every horse in the race. I wish I could offer some unique insight into this race, but it seems to me that the usual suspects are the standouts here.
#8 Rahy's Attorney is the top pick. Toss out his last race, a mile and 3/8ths is too much for the gelding but cutting back to a mile should be right up his alley. Rahy's Attorney will race forwardly but is not a need to lead type which will serve him well as there are a couple of other potential pace factors in the race.
The 2nd choice, and not far behind the top, is the versatile #5 Bribon. The grade 1 winner loves the distance and showed last out that he hasn't lost anything on the turf. Bribon has won 3 in a row with Alan Garcia in the irons and will be making a late run to make it 4.
The 3rd choice #9 Ventura hasn't run since April but that shouldn't be a problem for the 2008 BC Fillie and Mare Sprint Champ. Ventura has no problem coming off the bench and winning big races. She finished 2nd to Rahy's Attorney in this race last year and comes back to even the score.
The 4th pick is a bit of a stretch here, but a horse for the course can't be ignored. #10 Jungle Wave won the G2 Play King last out at Woodbine and is 3 for 3 over the track. He'll have to step up his game to beat these, but may be worth a flyer at a long price. Certainly one to watch for exotics.
That's it for this week kiddies. Let's hope I do better than I did yesterday.
Good Luck
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Pacific Classic From Del Mar
First, to recap yesterday's races.
The 4th race was won by the lone speed angle and number 3 contender Mother Russia. Mother Russia went to the front and never looked back. She was shadowed around the oval by betting favorite and top selection Our Golden Dream and 4th choice and 9-1 betting selection Akilina.
While Akilina was saving ground all the way and rallying gamely to take 2nd, Our Golden Dream was fading to 4th down the stretch. Exclusive Scheme closed well to get up for 3rd. Although the 8 horse and 2nd selection Soave was a tasty 10-1, with Akilina at 9-1, The Weasel decided to eschew the win bet and went for the exacta with all four contender selections OGD, MR, S, and A over S and A.
The exacta paid 101.50 for 2 dollars thank you very much.
The key angles for this race turned out to be the lone early speed and the hidden key race. Akilina didn't improve enough to win the race, but she did improve enough to finish a game 2nd and complete a nice exacta.
Finally got a little back from Linda Rice.
The 9th race at Sartoga The Forego went pretty much as expected. The abundance of speed in the race became the perfect set up for the top two contenders Kodiak Kowboy and Pyro. I played my little exacta thingy again even though I wasn't very enthusiastic about the 3rd and 4th choices, and thought I would pass a win bet until Pyro started drifting up toward 4/1 nearing post time. I just got it in on time.
Both Kodiak Kowboy and Pyro started slowly from the gate with Pyro racing next to last down the backstretch. KK made his move on the turn and seemed to be fighting his way through to the wire when the seas opened up and lo and behold there was Pyro coming down the middle of the stretch. I had lost sight of Pyro and had watch the replay several times before I could even pick him out of the throng.
Pyro had more at the end than KK and went on to win by about a length. Kodiak Kowboy probably had a little bit harder route to take and finished well to get 2nd.
The key angle in this race turns out to be 2nd off the layoff into a G1 Stakes and the strong prep race showing for bin Suroor Saeed and Pyro.
In the Darly Debutante, the 2nd choice Mi Sueno proved to be clearly the best although I do predict big things for the 2nd place finisher and 4th selection Blind Luck who showed that she belongs among the best 2 year olds in the west.
Repo, the top choice, raced in good stalking position and made a bid in the stretch, but didn't have enough in fading to fifth. No excuses for Repo.
The 3rd place finisher, La Nez, made a big move forward with this race and bears taking a close look at next time out.
For this race, I stuck to my guns playing Repo to win and then dropping beneath the other contenders in the exacta. As the saying goes,"You can't win 'em all."
The key winning factor for this race would seem to be a very classy horse, Mi Sueno, coupled with the top last out Beyer figure.
And now the race you've been waiting for the G1 Pacific Classic from Del Mar.
From a race shape perspective there are 4 horses that figure to be setting what should be an honest pace at the front of the race. #9 Tres Borrachos (20-1 ml) should be striving for the lead followed in close attendance by #3 Rail Trip (4-1), #5 Mast Track (15-1), and #7 Misremembered (12-1). Therefore, the race sets up nicely for those off the pace types like #6 Colonel John (5-2), #1 Informed (10-1), and #10 Einstein (7-2).
That being said, coming out of the Hollywood Gold Cup, Informed won the G2 San Diego Handicap, Global Hunter won the G1 Eddie Read, and Bullsbay won the G1 won the G1 Whitney at Saratoga. That, my friends, is a key race, and why I believe Rail Trip should be the favorite in this race.
A multiple G1 winner as a 3 year old, #6 Colonel John has been made the morning line favorite for only his 2nd race as a 4 year old. The race certainly sets up for him and I like his come back race as one that can be built upon.
Rail Trip has lost 2 races and the horse that won those races just happens to be in this one, the #1 Informed. Informed also has 2 wins and 2 places in 4 trips around the Del Mar oval. Having shown he is capable of beating Rail Trip, I don't see how this horse can be excluded from any contender list and I make him the 3rd contender. 10-1 on the morning line seems rather generous in my eyes.
The fourth choice for the race is the battle tested campaigner #10 Einstein (7-2). I do have my doubts about Einstein. The Arlington Million had to be a disappointment for his connections, and we have a recent change in ownership. Certainly his best racing days may be behind him at 7 years of age, or is he really 6 having been bred south of the equator its all so confusing.
Considering his last performance and his advancing age, 7-2 is, IMOH, to optimistic. Still, here's hoping one of our old favorites has at least one more big effort in him.
A horse to watch in this race is Misremembered. I think as a 3 year old with the race shape being what it is, the step up may be a little too much. However, this race will be a good experience for him if he can come out of it healthy. Look for him to move forward soon if not today.
Ok, there you have it. So far its been a good week for The Chalk Eating Weasel Report. Let's hope we can squeeze one more race from that stone and make a little money today.
Good luck.
The 4th race was won by the lone speed angle and number 3 contender Mother Russia. Mother Russia went to the front and never looked back. She was shadowed around the oval by betting favorite and top selection Our Golden Dream and 4th choice and 9-1 betting selection Akilina.
While Akilina was saving ground all the way and rallying gamely to take 2nd, Our Golden Dream was fading to 4th down the stretch. Exclusive Scheme closed well to get up for 3rd. Although the 8 horse and 2nd selection Soave was a tasty 10-1, with Akilina at 9-1, The Weasel decided to eschew the win bet and went for the exacta with all four contender selections OGD, MR, S, and A over S and A.
The exacta paid 101.50 for 2 dollars thank you very much.
The key angles for this race turned out to be the lone early speed and the hidden key race. Akilina didn't improve enough to win the race, but she did improve enough to finish a game 2nd and complete a nice exacta.
Finally got a little back from Linda Rice.
The 9th race at Sartoga The Forego went pretty much as expected. The abundance of speed in the race became the perfect set up for the top two contenders Kodiak Kowboy and Pyro. I played my little exacta thingy again even though I wasn't very enthusiastic about the 3rd and 4th choices, and thought I would pass a win bet until Pyro started drifting up toward 4/1 nearing post time. I just got it in on time.
Both Kodiak Kowboy and Pyro started slowly from the gate with Pyro racing next to last down the backstretch. KK made his move on the turn and seemed to be fighting his way through to the wire when the seas opened up and lo and behold there was Pyro coming down the middle of the stretch. I had lost sight of Pyro and had watch the replay several times before I could even pick him out of the throng.
Pyro had more at the end than KK and went on to win by about a length. Kodiak Kowboy probably had a little bit harder route to take and finished well to get 2nd.
The key angle in this race turns out to be 2nd off the layoff into a G1 Stakes and the strong prep race showing for bin Suroor Saeed and Pyro.
In the Darly Debutante, the 2nd choice Mi Sueno proved to be clearly the best although I do predict big things for the 2nd place finisher and 4th selection Blind Luck who showed that she belongs among the best 2 year olds in the west.
Repo, the top choice, raced in good stalking position and made a bid in the stretch, but didn't have enough in fading to fifth. No excuses for Repo.
The 3rd place finisher, La Nez, made a big move forward with this race and bears taking a close look at next time out.
For this race, I stuck to my guns playing Repo to win and then dropping beneath the other contenders in the exacta. As the saying goes,"You can't win 'em all."
The key winning factor for this race would seem to be a very classy horse, Mi Sueno, coupled with the top last out Beyer figure.
And now the race you've been waiting for the G1 Pacific Classic from Del Mar.
From a race shape perspective there are 4 horses that figure to be setting what should be an honest pace at the front of the race. #9 Tres Borrachos (20-1 ml) should be striving for the lead followed in close attendance by #3 Rail Trip (4-1), #5 Mast Track (15-1), and #7 Misremembered (12-1). Therefore, the race sets up nicely for those off the pace types like #6 Colonel John (5-2), #1 Informed (10-1), and #10 Einstein (7-2).
That being said, coming out of the Hollywood Gold Cup, Informed won the G2 San Diego Handicap, Global Hunter won the G1 Eddie Read, and Bullsbay won the G1 won the G1 Whitney at Saratoga. That, my friends, is a key race, and why I believe Rail Trip should be the favorite in this race.
A multiple G1 winner as a 3 year old, #6 Colonel John has been made the morning line favorite for only his 2nd race as a 4 year old. The race certainly sets up for him and I like his come back race as one that can be built upon.
Rail Trip has lost 2 races and the horse that won those races just happens to be in this one, the #1 Informed. Informed also has 2 wins and 2 places in 4 trips around the Del Mar oval. Having shown he is capable of beating Rail Trip, I don't see how this horse can be excluded from any contender list and I make him the 3rd contender. 10-1 on the morning line seems rather generous in my eyes.
The fourth choice for the race is the battle tested campaigner #10 Einstein (7-2). I do have my doubts about Einstein. The Arlington Million had to be a disappointment for his connections, and we have a recent change in ownership. Certainly his best racing days may be behind him at 7 years of age, or is he really 6 having been bred south of the equator its all so confusing.
Considering his last performance and his advancing age, 7-2 is, IMOH, to optimistic. Still, here's hoping one of our old favorites has at least one more big effort in him.
A horse to watch in this race is Misremembered. I think as a 3 year old with the race shape being what it is, the step up may be a little too much. However, this race will be a good experience for him if he can come out of it healthy. Look for him to move forward soon if not today.
Ok, there you have it. So far its been a good week for The Chalk Eating Weasel Report. Let's hope we can squeeze one more race from that stone and make a little money today.
Good luck.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Leavin' On A Jet Plane
This will be my first physical trip to the Saratoga Race Course. Up until now I've only been there in my dreams. I already have Friday's card handicapped and am chomping at the bit for the Saturday past performances to become available. I hope they come out tomorrow so that my lap top can be left behind. My motel will not have wifi available. When the desk clerk was asked if they had wifi available in the room the response,"No, were in the mountains." When questioned about what being in the mountains had to do with internet access, I was informed that the library in town was open until 7:00.
So while I anxiously await Saturday's PP's I thought I might give a little update on the Handicapping the Handicapper project. Since the onset of this project, I have handicapped 161 races of various types. The table below shows the performance of my top 4 contenders.
The table shows that my top contender won nearly 30% of the races I handicapped. The 2nd almost 17%, 3rd 18% and 4th 14.5%. The reason each contender does not equal 161 is because there are occasionally races where I could not come up with 4, 3, or even 2 contenders I could make a legitimate case for (these races do not include any in which Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta participated).
So while I anxiously await Saturday's PP's I thought I might give a little update on the Handicapping the Handicapper project. Since the onset of this project, I have handicapped 161 races of various types. The table below shows the performance of my top 4 contenders.
The table shows that my top contender won nearly 30% of the races I handicapped. The 2nd almost 17%, 3rd 18% and 4th 14.5%. The reason each contender does not equal 161 is because there are occasionally races where I could not come up with 4, 3, or even 2 contenders I could make a legitimate case for (these races do not include any in which Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta participated). These percentages, or probabilities of the contenders winning translates to the odds shown in the next to last column on the right. These odds indicate what my win expectancy for each contender level. The final column is my win expectancy + 50%. The extra 50% allows for an extra margin of error. Thus, the minimum odds I am able to take at this time is 7/2 and I require 9/1 for my Number 4 contender. It is easy to see that I have not been playing too many favorites to win.
In the original article, I suggested that by dividing races in categories such as Maiden Claiming, Maiden races, claiming and so on, one might be able to better refine the personal odds requirement for each type. In addition, I suggested the use of a moving average of 30 races for each type of race. Please check the archives for the original post, "Handicapping the Handicapper" for the details.
To build a quickie database to test while I was accumulating my personal data, I kept a record from races run at Calder Race Course. I discovered that 30 races were an insufficient base to work from as the odds didn't make sense in some cases. I expanded the number to 50 races, and found that at 50, the results made more sense in that the top choice of the collective betting public performed better than the 2nd, than the 3rd, than the 4th.
To date, I have not handicapped any single class of races 50 times yet. The largest category is graded stakes races with 26. This is because I have been trying to concentrate on better quality races over the Summer. In addition, I have been trying to become a little less parochial in my handicapping habits, so lack of personal time requires me to be more selective about which races I choose to handicap and play.
So for now I will continue to use the generalized table above although I think it is time to start a new one. As the number of races increases, the table becomes less responsive to my current handicapping prowess.
The 161 races yielded a total of 66 win or exacta wagers made. 42 win wagers and 70 exacta wagers on a total of 38 races. So using this method of creating a contender odds line has certainly had the desired effect of cutting the number of races played.
Of the 42 win wagers made a paltry 6 were winners for a 14.3% win rate. At an average 6.88-1 odds for winning wagers this resulted in $0.13 profit for each dollar wagered. Note this is not a $2.00 flat bet result as my wager size may vary depending on whether or not I'm including an exacta wager on the race. Also there are couple of winning wagers where the winner was obviously superior to the field and the odds sufficiently tasty that I couldn't resist and abandoned my system and played the low odds overlay (yes, there can be low odds overlays). Removing these from the database would have the effect of lowering the win rate, but the average winning odds would increase.
Surprisingly, the real money has been made playing the exactas. Of the 70 exacta wagers (2 to 6 individual exacta wagers per race) made 5 resulted in cashing a ticket for a 7.1% success rate. However, at an average return of 39.4-1 this results in a return of $2.01 for each dollar wagered. No confessions are required for this figure as all exacta wagers conform to the template of playing my overlay horse underneath the other contenders in the race. Seemingly, a very effective way of playing the races if one is able to contend with the inevitable losing streaks that are going occur in between the winners. For me the bottom line is am I showing a profit. The results here indicate that this method of setting acceptable odds is working.
A word about the exacta. I have found through experience that if my overlay horse is at odds of 5-1 or less, the payoff on the exacta is not usually worth the risk, especially if the other contenders are at lower odds. In this case, I just increase the win bet and leave out the exacta. Also, placing an exacta bet on such horses effectively lowers the odds on the overlay horse in such a way that should the horse win the extra money required for the exacta has destroyed the overlay price.
At this point, I am confident that once I am able to use odds for specific types of races, the method will really fine tune the odds I am able to accept on a race. For instance, after 26 Graded Stakes races, the required odds for the top choice is 5-1 based on a top contender success rate of 23%, but overnight stakes would require only 3-2 based on a 50% top rate after 20 races. In my opinion, this is where the real value of this exercise lays.
In conclusion, the purpose of Handicapping the Handicapper is to find an objective method of establishing an odds line for top contenders in the race. While there is still more work to be done before declaring the method successful, the interim results reported here show great promise.
A final note. It seems unlikely that I will be able to provide Public Handicapper selections for this weekend, so you're on your own.
Til Next time. Good Luck!
Saturday, August 8, 2009
Arlington Million
Today is Arlington Million day. We have a highly competitive group for the Arlington Million as well as the other 3 Public Handicapper races today. Arlington Park was off the turf on Friday and the going today will likely be something less than firm.
The first race to cover is the mile and a quarter G1 Secretariat Stakes for 3 year olds. The 1A entry, Driving Snow is an early scratch from the race making the job a little easier.
The 1 Cliffy's Future has never run on Turf before and without much turf pedigree to speak of, The Cliff's Edge (Gulch), appears to be misplaced here. The other easy elimination is Hoosier Kingdom who has been tearing up the Indiana State Breds but will find the opposition here a little more accomplished.
The remaining contenders seem very evenly matched, and you can make a case for each of them. However, they can't all win so we have to take a stand somewhere and this is how I see it.
The top selection is the 8 horse Reb at 5 to 1 in the morning line that price seems pretty fair if it holds up. Winner of 3 straight including the Grade 2 American Derby last out. Julien Leparoux gets the call on this son of Stormy Atlantic, and we'll be looking for him to make a late run.
The second choice ships over off a lackluster Group 1 effort at Longchamp at a Mile and a half. The shorter distance should be to the liking of the number 9 Black Bear Island winner of a Group 2 contest back in may. Additionally, Black Bear Island should feel right at home on a soggy turf course.
The third choice is a horse I liked quite a bit earlier in the year, the 7 horse Take The Points. Although yet to show a win on the turf, the surface switch seems to have been a wake up call for the Pletcher trainee. The comment line says Take The Points hung in finishing 3rd to Battle of Hastings in the Virginia Derby. I think the rider change to Kent Desormeaux may be the difference which finally puts this underachiever over the top.
The fourth choice is the 10 horse Giant Oak. Giant Oak is the horse for course here with 2 wins in 3 tries at Arlington Park. Giant Oak had a troubled trip as the favorite last out and figures to improve position in this race with a better trip.
I think you can also make some sort of case for Proceed Bee, Laureate Conductor, Quite A Handful, and Oil Man. So if you wanted to go in that direction I wouldn't blame you.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
8 Reb /3-1/ 9-2
9 Black Bear Island/ 4-1 /6-1
7 Take The Points /5-1/ 8-1
10 Giant Oak/ 6-1 /9-1
The next race is the 1 and 3/16 Mile G1 Beverly D. Stakes for Fillies and Mares for 3 and older.
For this race I again go to the entry ridden by Julien Leparoux for the top choice. No I don't have a particular thing for Leparoux. I do, along with Kent Desormeaux, consider him to be among the best turf riders in North America. Something about those Acadians. In this case, I do consider the #2 Pure Clan to be the best horse in the race. Pure Clan is a multiple graded stakes winner including last years American Oaks and Leparoux always seems to get her best out of her. She has 5 wins in 8 tries over grass 2 wins in 3 attempts at the distance and is 1 for 1 over the Arlington course.
The next selection is the foreign shipper #1 Alnadana has been showing very strong recent form in some classy Group 2 and 3 races in France and England including a win last out in the Group 3 Prix Messidor. She won that race by 3 lengths and, according to the Racing Post, http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/alnadana-maisons-laffitte-france-alnadana-dominates-prix-messidor/610071/, the margin of victory could have been more.
The next selection is the #7 Dynaforce ridden by, are you ready, Kent Desormeaux. At 10-1 in the morning line, Dynaforce may be the over looked horse in the race if the ML is accurate. Dynaforce showed a nice move forward in her last race from the previous and any further improvement would put her right into contention in this spot.
For the 4th selection, I was leaning towards the 6 Tizaqueena until I learned that Alnadana is likely to contest her for the lead. Not wanting to speedy types as contenders on grass I moved to the California shipper #4 Black Mamba ridden by Garrett Gomez. If this multiple graded stakes winner can duplicate her last effort she should be a factor at the end.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
2 Pure Clan /3-1 /9-2
1 Alnadana/ 4-1/ 6-1
7 Dynaforce /4-1/ 6-1
4 Black Mamba /6-1 /9-1
The Main Event today is, of course, The Arlington Million Stakes-G1 1 and 1/4 miles for 3 yo and up
For this race the Weasel is going to go out on a limb and make, oh let's see, Ummm #6 Gio Ponti the favorite. Gio Ponti has won 3 consecutive G1 races making a 5 wide move last out to take the Man O War last out. Ramon Dominquez gets the call today. Ramon cost me a lot of money in, I think it was the 3rd race, last Saturday at Saratoga with his aggressive ride that the stewards chose to forgive. Maybe this week I'll have him on my side, but I doubt it.
#2 Presious Passion is another hot horse who has been toying with the competition at Monmouth. Today PP will have to survive the challenge from "cheap" speed in the form of Recapturetheglory. It looks like a mismatch, but if he can stay with PP for a 1/2, maybe it will take enough out of the front running gelding to give the rest a chance.
Next is the crowd favorite #1 Einstein who never runs a bad race and returns to his favorite surface. Einstein has never won the Million. I for one will be pulling for him to put this notch in his belt and may even bet on it if the price is right.
This field is so deep that G1 winner #5 Mr. Sidney is 10/1 in the morning line. The distance may not be his best, but is he stays at 10/1 or better this winner of 5 out of 7 on the grass would certainly be worth a look.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
6 Gio Ponti /2-1 /3-1
2 Presious Passion/ 9-2/ 7-1
1 Einstein /5-1/ 8-1
5 Mr. Sidney /6-1/ 9-1
Finally we move over to Saratoga, where your's truly will be in attendance this coming Friday and Saturday, for the G1 Whitney Hdcp.
#7 Commentator is the sentimental and ML Favorite, but he starts from the disadvantageous outside post, has the naturally speedy Tizway to the inside to contend with, and a much stronger field than the statebreds he beat up on last out. Commentator will have three accomplished closers chasing after him down the stretch.
The numero uno contender here is #4 Macho Again. I made the mistake of discounting Macho Again in the last race he was in that I handicapped the G1 Stephen Foster Hdcp. Having been burned once, I won't ignore him this time out. Doesn't mean I will play him, but I won't be surprised this time out
Next up will be the star-crossed #2 Asiatic Boy with 2 second place finishes in the states. Asiatic Boy will benefit from an inside post position and I expect he will be there at the end again.
The 3rd choice will be #6 Dry Martini. The 6yo gelding has been thriving since moving to Barclay Tagg's barn. Like the previous two, the pace set up should be great for him. I think, realistically, any of the three can win this race. Whoever gets the trip wins, its that close.
The 4th pick is #3 Bullsbay. Throw out his last effort over the plastic surface. Probably a notch below the top 3 picks, keep in your trifecta at the very least.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds/ Overlay (play odds)
4 Macho Again /7-2 /5-1
2 Asiatic Boy/ 7-2/ 5-1
6 Dry Martini /7-2/ 5-1
3 Bullsbay /6-1 /9-1
Those are the picks for the day. Hope you find them useful. Good luck
This just in. The Weasel has learned that the turf at Arlington has been rated yielding and that Recapturetheglory has been scratched from the Arlington Million. In my opinion, this tilts the pace scenario to the benefit of Pressious Passion. However we will have to watch the earlier races to see how speed holds up over the course. The odds line below reflects my change of opinion on the race.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
6 Gio Ponti/ 3-1/ 9-2
2 Presious Passion /3-1 /9-2
1 Einstein/ 5-1/ 8-1
5 Mr. Sidney/ 6-1 /9-1
The first race to cover is the mile and a quarter G1 Secretariat Stakes for 3 year olds. The 1A entry, Driving Snow is an early scratch from the race making the job a little easier.
The 1 Cliffy's Future has never run on Turf before and without much turf pedigree to speak of, The Cliff's Edge (Gulch), appears to be misplaced here. The other easy elimination is Hoosier Kingdom who has been tearing up the Indiana State Breds but will find the opposition here a little more accomplished.
The remaining contenders seem very evenly matched, and you can make a case for each of them. However, they can't all win so we have to take a stand somewhere and this is how I see it.
The top selection is the 8 horse Reb at 5 to 1 in the morning line that price seems pretty fair if it holds up. Winner of 3 straight including the Grade 2 American Derby last out. Julien Leparoux gets the call on this son of Stormy Atlantic, and we'll be looking for him to make a late run.
The second choice ships over off a lackluster Group 1 effort at Longchamp at a Mile and a half. The shorter distance should be to the liking of the number 9 Black Bear Island winner of a Group 2 contest back in may. Additionally, Black Bear Island should feel right at home on a soggy turf course.
The third choice is a horse I liked quite a bit earlier in the year, the 7 horse Take The Points. Although yet to show a win on the turf, the surface switch seems to have been a wake up call for the Pletcher trainee. The comment line says Take The Points hung in finishing 3rd to Battle of Hastings in the Virginia Derby. I think the rider change to Kent Desormeaux may be the difference which finally puts this underachiever over the top.
The fourth choice is the 10 horse Giant Oak. Giant Oak is the horse for course here with 2 wins in 3 tries at Arlington Park. Giant Oak had a troubled trip as the favorite last out and figures to improve position in this race with a better trip.
I think you can also make some sort of case for Proceed Bee, Laureate Conductor, Quite A Handful, and Oil Man. So if you wanted to go in that direction I wouldn't blame you.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
8 Reb /3-1/ 9-2
9 Black Bear Island/ 4-1 /6-1
7 Take The Points /5-1/ 8-1
10 Giant Oak/ 6-1 /9-1
The next race is the 1 and 3/16 Mile G1 Beverly D. Stakes for Fillies and Mares for 3 and older.
For this race I again go to the entry ridden by Julien Leparoux for the top choice. No I don't have a particular thing for Leparoux. I do, along with Kent Desormeaux, consider him to be among the best turf riders in North America. Something about those Acadians. In this case, I do consider the #2 Pure Clan to be the best horse in the race. Pure Clan is a multiple graded stakes winner including last years American Oaks and Leparoux always seems to get her best out of her. She has 5 wins in 8 tries over grass 2 wins in 3 attempts at the distance and is 1 for 1 over the Arlington course.
The next selection is the foreign shipper #1 Alnadana has been showing very strong recent form in some classy Group 2 and 3 races in France and England including a win last out in the Group 3 Prix Messidor. She won that race by 3 lengths and, according to the Racing Post, http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/alnadana-maisons-laffitte-france-alnadana-dominates-prix-messidor/610071/, the margin of victory could have been more.
The next selection is the #7 Dynaforce ridden by, are you ready, Kent Desormeaux. At 10-1 in the morning line, Dynaforce may be the over looked horse in the race if the ML is accurate. Dynaforce showed a nice move forward in her last race from the previous and any further improvement would put her right into contention in this spot.
For the 4th selection, I was leaning towards the 6 Tizaqueena until I learned that Alnadana is likely to contest her for the lead. Not wanting to speedy types as contenders on grass I moved to the California shipper #4 Black Mamba ridden by Garrett Gomez. If this multiple graded stakes winner can duplicate her last effort she should be a factor at the end.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
2 Pure Clan /3-1 /9-2
1 Alnadana/ 4-1/ 6-1
7 Dynaforce /4-1/ 6-1
4 Black Mamba /6-1 /9-1
The Main Event today is, of course, The Arlington Million Stakes-G1 1 and 1/4 miles for 3 yo and up
For this race the Weasel is going to go out on a limb and make, oh let's see, Ummm #6 Gio Ponti the favorite. Gio Ponti has won 3 consecutive G1 races making a 5 wide move last out to take the Man O War last out. Ramon Dominquez gets the call today. Ramon cost me a lot of money in, I think it was the 3rd race, last Saturday at Saratoga with his aggressive ride that the stewards chose to forgive. Maybe this week I'll have him on my side, but I doubt it.
#2 Presious Passion is another hot horse who has been toying with the competition at Monmouth. Today PP will have to survive the challenge from "cheap" speed in the form of Recapturetheglory. It looks like a mismatch, but if he can stay with PP for a 1/2, maybe it will take enough out of the front running gelding to give the rest a chance.
Next is the crowd favorite #1 Einstein who never runs a bad race and returns to his favorite surface. Einstein has never won the Million. I for one will be pulling for him to put this notch in his belt and may even bet on it if the price is right.
This field is so deep that G1 winner #5 Mr. Sidney is 10/1 in the morning line. The distance may not be his best, but is he stays at 10/1 or better this winner of 5 out of 7 on the grass would certainly be worth a look.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
6 Gio Ponti /2-1 /3-1
2 Presious Passion/ 9-2/ 7-1
1 Einstein /5-1/ 8-1
5 Mr. Sidney /6-1/ 9-1
Finally we move over to Saratoga, where your's truly will be in attendance this coming Friday and Saturday, for the G1 Whitney Hdcp.
#7 Commentator is the sentimental and ML Favorite, but he starts from the disadvantageous outside post, has the naturally speedy Tizway to the inside to contend with, and a much stronger field than the statebreds he beat up on last out. Commentator will have three accomplished closers chasing after him down the stretch.
The numero uno contender here is #4 Macho Again. I made the mistake of discounting Macho Again in the last race he was in that I handicapped the G1 Stephen Foster Hdcp. Having been burned once, I won't ignore him this time out. Doesn't mean I will play him, but I won't be surprised this time out
Next up will be the star-crossed #2 Asiatic Boy with 2 second place finishes in the states. Asiatic Boy will benefit from an inside post position and I expect he will be there at the end again.
The 3rd choice will be #6 Dry Martini. The 6yo gelding has been thriving since moving to Barclay Tagg's barn. Like the previous two, the pace set up should be great for him. I think, realistically, any of the three can win this race. Whoever gets the trip wins, its that close.
The 4th pick is #3 Bullsbay. Throw out his last effort over the plastic surface. Probably a notch below the top 3 picks, keep in your trifecta at the very least.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds/ Overlay (play odds)
4 Macho Again /7-2 /5-1
2 Asiatic Boy/ 7-2/ 5-1
6 Dry Martini /7-2/ 5-1
3 Bullsbay /6-1 /9-1
Those are the picks for the day. Hope you find them useful. Good luck
This just in. The Weasel has learned that the turf at Arlington has been rated yielding and that Recapturetheglory has been scratched from the Arlington Million. In my opinion, this tilts the pace scenario to the benefit of Pressious Passion. However we will have to watch the earlier races to see how speed holds up over the course. The odds line below reflects my change of opinion on the race.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
6 Gio Ponti/ 3-1/ 9-2
2 Presious Passion /3-1 /9-2
1 Einstein/ 5-1/ 8-1
5 Mr. Sidney/ 6-1 /9-1
Saturday, August 1, 2009
Life Happens
I'm sorry its been so long but sometimes life gets in the way of the things we'd rather be doing. Two weeks ago I was up to Orlando with my wife and daughter for the UCF open house. Last week, I was having ATT U-Verse installed and was down all Saturday morning and into the afternoon. I have been forced to work through lunch at my job which cuts down some of my most productive handicapping time. This morning my wife went out to a dead battery in her car, so here I sit with 90 minutes to first post at Calder and no races on the card handicapped.
Fortunately, I went through most of the Saratoga card at the beach last night, and I have the Public handicapper race from Del Mar as well. The fourth race is from Monmouth tomorrow, so I'll get to that later.
Ok, this is an abbreviated Weasel Saturday as I still have to shower and wash of the battery changing grime before schlepping over to Gulfstream to watch the Saratoga races. Unless I change my mind and choose to play the home game that is.
The G1 Diana Race 9
I'm still trying to figure out if Rutherienne is running today at the spa or tomorrow at the shore as she is dual entered. However, Saratoga just posted their scratches and she's still in as far as I can tell so I'll go the direction for now.
Still the top choice is #10 Forever Together followed by #3 Rutherienne (if in) #2 Quiet Meadow who seems to be finally getting it and #4 Indescribable. If Rutherienne scratches move the other two up 1 position and throw in #6 Carribean Sunset. As a side note, I would really like Criticism, but the Spa turf is tough on front runners, but sometimes a soggy course can favor the leaders so watch how the surface playing.
G2 Jim Dandy Race 10
The pick is #4 Warrior's Reward who had a bad start in the Dwyer and managed to finish 3rd making up a lot of ground in the process. 2nd choice is #3 Kensei, the winner of the Dwyer. #5 Charitable Man is the 3rd pick and #1 Saratoga Sinner with Leparoux comes off a 6 month layoff to be the 4th choice. My only trepidation about SS is why put a G3 winning 3 year old on the shelf during what could be said prime time for 3 yo racing? But if he's healthy, he is capable of beating all of these.
G2 San Clemente Hdcp Race 8 Del Mar
I'm looking for bit of an upset here with #3 Strawberry Tart in what seems to me to be a somewhat weak G2 field. Even though 7/2 in the ML ST might slip under the radar and give a decent price. The 2nd choice is #9 Acting Lady who is a legit G2 winner with Joe Talamo aboard. The 3rd pick is #4 Carlsbad trying the turf for the 1st time certainly has the credentials to win here if she takes to the surface. Her pedigree 3 turf works suggest she will, but she will also have to put away Oliginowile on the front end to have a chance. The fourth pick is #1 Nan who has been chasing the best 3 year old fillies all year. This may be her race to finally shine.
That's it for an abbreviated Weasel Report. Check back later for the 4th pick from Monmouth tomorrow.
Fortunately, I went through most of the Saratoga card at the beach last night, and I have the Public handicapper race from Del Mar as well. The fourth race is from Monmouth tomorrow, so I'll get to that later.
Ok, this is an abbreviated Weasel Saturday as I still have to shower and wash of the battery changing grime before schlepping over to Gulfstream to watch the Saratoga races. Unless I change my mind and choose to play the home game that is.
The G1 Diana Race 9
I'm still trying to figure out if Rutherienne is running today at the spa or tomorrow at the shore as she is dual entered. However, Saratoga just posted their scratches and she's still in as far as I can tell so I'll go the direction for now.
Still the top choice is #10 Forever Together followed by #3 Rutherienne (if in) #2 Quiet Meadow who seems to be finally getting it and #4 Indescribable. If Rutherienne scratches move the other two up 1 position and throw in #6 Carribean Sunset. As a side note, I would really like Criticism, but the Spa turf is tough on front runners, but sometimes a soggy course can favor the leaders so watch how the surface playing.
G2 Jim Dandy Race 10
The pick is #4 Warrior's Reward who had a bad start in the Dwyer and managed to finish 3rd making up a lot of ground in the process. 2nd choice is #3 Kensei, the winner of the Dwyer. #5 Charitable Man is the 3rd pick and #1 Saratoga Sinner with Leparoux comes off a 6 month layoff to be the 4th choice. My only trepidation about SS is why put a G3 winning 3 year old on the shelf during what could be said prime time for 3 yo racing? But if he's healthy, he is capable of beating all of these.
G2 San Clemente Hdcp Race 8 Del Mar
I'm looking for bit of an upset here with #3 Strawberry Tart in what seems to me to be a somewhat weak G2 field. Even though 7/2 in the ML ST might slip under the radar and give a decent price. The 2nd choice is #9 Acting Lady who is a legit G2 winner with Joe Talamo aboard. The 3rd pick is #4 Carlsbad trying the turf for the 1st time certainly has the credentials to win here if she takes to the surface. Her pedigree 3 turf works suggest she will, but she will also have to put away Oliginowile on the front end to have a chance. The fourth pick is #1 Nan who has been chasing the best 3 year old fillies all year. This may be her race to finally shine.
That's it for an abbreviated Weasel Report. Check back later for the 4th pick from Monmouth tomorrow.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Some Saturday Picks
No time for chit chat. Need to help out with some housework to maintain domestic tranquility before I go to CRC for some live racing later this afternoon. Thought I'd give you some picks to chew on before I leave.
First in line is the HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) the 100k Pretty Jenny Stakes for 3yo Fillies restricted to Illinois breds from Hawthorne Park in Chicago.
I have to admit that I dont really have a good feel for this race so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle and looked for horses making 3yo debut after showing promise as 2yo's. Here are the picks. I will most likely only make a token wager on this one just for the cause.
P# 6th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Miss Fontana
3-1
9-2
#10 Happy Henrietta
7-2
5-1
#3 Tessies Tilbury
4-1
6-1
#9 Cumulonimble
6-1
9-1
The HANA Race of the week and I have to admit that I really don't have a good feel for this matchup of Ill breds, so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle of looking for horses that showed promise as 2 yo's making their 3 yo debut. #2 fits that bill winning her 2 yo debut and a State bred stakes before being put on the shelf in Aug last year. Inez Karlsson gets back on. #10 also fits the profile in winning 2yo debut and a state bred stakes in December, comes back after a 4 month freshening. #3 is one for two and could keep on improving with a Hi % jockey aboard and 2nd place OCn1x effort against non state breds. #9 hasn't won yet, but has been in the money 3 of 3 as a 2yo including 2nd in state restricted race and is making 3yo debut. Brandon Meier made the right decision in coming back to Chicago.
Opening Saturday at Calder Race Course and 4 stakes make the opening weekend card including two Graded stakes. I was disappointed to see they were not running with their 2:30 Friday post times this year. I've really enjoyed leaving work on Fridays and catching the late half of the card. I will miss that a lot. I can still do the simulcast from some other track, but its just not the same as seeing real horses.
The 7th race today is the 1 1/2 Mile (turf) LaPrevoyante Handicap-G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.
P# 7th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Criticism
1-1
3-2
#2 Long Approach
5-1
8-1
#3 Icon Project
6-1
9-1
#4 2 time G3 Marathon winner is definitely the one to beat #2 Hi % turf jockey Desormeaux travels south from Ky to team up with Hi % trainer Johnathan Sheppard, not for nothing. #3 Wolfson comes back to the track he dominates and Trujillo rides at track he dominated 2 years ago. Wolfy always has a shot a Calder
Next is the 1 mile 70 yards Emergency Nurse Stakes-Purse 55k for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
P# 8th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Annabill
6-5
9-5
#7 Eclisse
7-2
5-1
#2 Tiara Di Oro
6-1
9-1
#6 The other Wolfson gets his chance to shine here. Annabill wins at a near 50% clip at CRC is 4 of 9 at the distance, is a stakes winner and comes into the race fresh. #7 Marty Wolfson's horse is the only speed in the race and may be able to steal it on the front end. #2 The 2nd Marty Wolfson entry in the race is lightly raced and showing improvement in its last 3 races.
Race 9 is the 1 Mile (Turf) Miami Mile Handicap G3 for 3 and up.
P# 9th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Rogue Victory
3-1
9-2
#6 Mambo Meister
7-2
5-1
#1 Vanquisher
4-1
6-1
#10 Baron Von Tap
6-1
9-1
I'm expecting that Finallymadeit, Dream Maestro, and Motovato, will scratch out of this race and move to the 10 on dirt where they are also entered, but I have not yet been able to confirm this.#2 Does anyone think Desormeaux is giving up opening Sat. at CD to lose in S. Fla #2 has won 3 of 9 and his running lines look like he's getting ready to pop a big one. #6 is a stakes winner and 1 for three on CRC Turf. Manny Cruz gets back on the Meister. #1 Another tough customer, Stakes winner that is 6 for 17 on the sod with a High % Trainer. #10 may do nothing and may be the upset special of the day. Veteran turf specialist (8yo) with loads of back class has been revived since moving to Ziadie's barn 4 races ago.
And finally the 1 Mile 70 yards Sumter Stakes 55k for 3 and up.
P# 10th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Dream Maestro
3-1
9-2
#1 Hey Byrn
7-2
5-1
#7 Motovato
4-1
6-1
#8 Finallymadeit
6-1
9-1
#6 Finally gets to turn the tables on the 8 in a race where the 8 should face more of a pace challenge from Hal's My Hope and Honey Honey Honey. #1 comes in fresh off a turf effort where it became obvious he didn't belong. The rest should do him good and expect return to January form #7 Elvis and Marty team up again and this is another that has the look of a horse moving forward, expect a big effort here. #8 Negrete keeps putting this one out there every 21 days and this one keeps running; however others in this race may show a greater willingness to challenge this need to leader for the early fractions this time. Still this is a gritty horse that can't be totally discounted.
Note as of this writing the 3 dual entered horses have not scratched from either race. Depending on how the scratches fall out, all of the above for races 9 and 10 could be horse manure.
First in line is the HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) the 100k Pretty Jenny Stakes for 3yo Fillies restricted to Illinois breds from Hawthorne Park in Chicago.
I have to admit that I dont really have a good feel for this race so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle and looked for horses making 3yo debut after showing promise as 2yo's. Here are the picks. I will most likely only make a token wager on this one just for the cause.
P# 6th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Miss Fontana
3-1
9-2
#10 Happy Henrietta
7-2
5-1
#3 Tessies Tilbury
4-1
6-1
#9 Cumulonimble
6-1
9-1
The HANA Race of the week and I have to admit that I really don't have a good feel for this matchup of Ill breds, so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle of looking for horses that showed promise as 2 yo's making their 3 yo debut. #2 fits that bill winning her 2 yo debut and a State bred stakes before being put on the shelf in Aug last year. Inez Karlsson gets back on. #10 also fits the profile in winning 2yo debut and a state bred stakes in December, comes back after a 4 month freshening. #3 is one for two and could keep on improving with a Hi % jockey aboard and 2nd place OCn1x effort against non state breds. #9 hasn't won yet, but has been in the money 3 of 3 as a 2yo including 2nd in state restricted race and is making 3yo debut. Brandon Meier made the right decision in coming back to Chicago.
Opening Saturday at Calder Race Course and 4 stakes make the opening weekend card including two Graded stakes. I was disappointed to see they were not running with their 2:30 Friday post times this year. I've really enjoyed leaving work on Fridays and catching the late half of the card. I will miss that a lot. I can still do the simulcast from some other track, but its just not the same as seeing real horses.
The 7th race today is the 1 1/2 Mile (turf) LaPrevoyante Handicap-G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.
P# 7th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Criticism
1-1
3-2
#2 Long Approach
5-1
8-1
#3 Icon Project
6-1
9-1
#4 2 time G3 Marathon winner is definitely the one to beat #2 Hi % turf jockey Desormeaux travels south from Ky to team up with Hi % trainer Johnathan Sheppard, not for nothing. #3 Wolfson comes back to the track he dominates and Trujillo rides at track he dominated 2 years ago. Wolfy always has a shot a Calder
Next is the 1 mile 70 yards Emergency Nurse Stakes-Purse 55k for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
P# 8th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Annabill
6-5
9-5
#7 Eclisse
7-2
5-1
#2 Tiara Di Oro
6-1
9-1
#6 The other Wolfson gets his chance to shine here. Annabill wins at a near 50% clip at CRC is 4 of 9 at the distance, is a stakes winner and comes into the race fresh. #7 Marty Wolfson's horse is the only speed in the race and may be able to steal it on the front end. #2 The 2nd Marty Wolfson entry in the race is lightly raced and showing improvement in its last 3 races.
Race 9 is the 1 Mile (Turf) Miami Mile Handicap G3 for 3 and up.
P# 9th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Rogue Victory
3-1
9-2
#6 Mambo Meister
7-2
5-1
#1 Vanquisher
4-1
6-1
#10 Baron Von Tap
6-1
9-1
I'm expecting that Finallymadeit, Dream Maestro, and Motovato, will scratch out of this race and move to the 10 on dirt where they are also entered, but I have not yet been able to confirm this.#2 Does anyone think Desormeaux is giving up opening Sat. at CD to lose in S. Fla #2 has won 3 of 9 and his running lines look like he's getting ready to pop a big one. #6 is a stakes winner and 1 for three on CRC Turf. Manny Cruz gets back on the Meister. #1 Another tough customer, Stakes winner that is 6 for 17 on the sod with a High % Trainer. #10 may do nothing and may be the upset special of the day. Veteran turf specialist (8yo) with loads of back class has been revived since moving to Ziadie's barn 4 races ago.
And finally the 1 Mile 70 yards Sumter Stakes 55k for 3 and up.
P# 10th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Dream Maestro
3-1
9-2
#1 Hey Byrn
7-2
5-1
#7 Motovato
4-1
6-1
#8 Finallymadeit
6-1
9-1
#6 Finally gets to turn the tables on the 8 in a race where the 8 should face more of a pace challenge from Hal's My Hope and Honey Honey Honey. #1 comes in fresh off a turf effort where it became obvious he didn't belong. The rest should do him good and expect return to January form #7 Elvis and Marty team up again and this is another that has the look of a horse moving forward, expect a big effort here. #8 Negrete keeps putting this one out there every 21 days and this one keeps running; however others in this race may show a greater willingness to challenge this need to leader for the early fractions this time. Still this is a gritty horse that can't be totally discounted.
Note as of this writing the 3 dual entered horses have not scratched from either race. Depending on how the scratches fall out, all of the above for races 9 and 10 could be horse manure.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Felonius Wagering
This comes under the category of learning something new every day. I've just learned today that the HANA race of the week is Saturday, Race 6 at Hawthorne through the following letter.
You may have heard or read that Turf Paradise was to be the target track this Saturday for the HANA Get In The Pool race. Unfortunately, many horseplayers have expressed some big concerns about the law in Arizona which makes it a felony to use an ADW. Many players were very uncomfortable with this. At the HANA conference call Wednesday night it was discussed and decided that we would NOT bet Turf Paradise because of this law.We will be doing R6 at Hawthorne this Saturday 4/25/2009 instead. This is a stakes race with an eleven horse field with a morning line favorite at 4-1. NICE AND JUICY. We also decided to target the RACE and not a specific pool. This way you can handicap the race as you normally would and bet the pool (WPS, Exacta, Tri, Super, etc.) where you see the most value.GOOD LUCK ON SATURDAY.Sincerely,Your HANA Team
I wish they had given more details regarding this absurd law. As I have been known to place a wager at Turf Paradise from the comfort of my living room now and again, I was concerned that I had committed some kind of vile, criminal act in the process. At least now, as I understand it, I'm only a criminal if I placed that wager at some location other than an OTB or the track in Arizona, so I guess I have not violated the law after all. Good, I'm not giving the money back.
Right now, if it were not for ADW, I would be personna non grata from racing at the moment due to the prescence of that new Jack Russell in my house. He demands your attention! I can't even handicap a race at home right now. So each day I have been dutifully downloading a form and finding a race or two at a western track like Hollywood, Golden Gate, or, dare I say it, Turf Paradise and playing the game when I get home from work. As you can see by my little box on the left, this tactic is working out pretty well for me. Thanks Patrick!
Today I scored with a double longshot, each horse at 11-1, exacta at Hollywood in race 3. The funny thing is, I handicapped this race during lunch with no idea of the who the swamis at TVG would like. They, the swamis, like the one horse and so did I as he appeared to be the speed on the rail, and for some reason they also liked the 5 horse. I didn't consider the 5 to be a contender because he had been losing pretty regularly to claimers and the others seemed to have been racing against better. I also rejected the 2 because he had been vanned off last out and even Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert couldn't lure me to that one. The 3 I had rejected because his speed figures just didn't measure up to the others, so unless everyone else faltered and the 3 got better, there was no way for him to win. That left me with the 1,4,6, and 7. The one opened at even money and ended up around 8/5. Underlay, no play. The 4 opened at 5 to 1. The 4 was my 4th choice and I needed 9/1 to play him to win. The 6 and 7 both opened at 14-1 so I licked my chops and got ready to split my win wager and box 6,7/1,4,6,7.
Then the TVG people started talking about the race and they almost talked me off the 4 in favor of the 5 until I referred back to my notes on the race and reminded myself what I didn't like about the 5 and what I liked about the 4. As race time approached the 6 had dropped to underlay status as the 4 had steadily drifted up and was lingering at 8-1, still not enough for a wager. The 7 was pretty solid at 11-1 so he was my huckleberry for the win wager and the key horse in the exacta box in which I also included the 5 as a concession to the wisdom of the TVG commentators. After entering my bet in the TBA spreadsheet I turned back to the odds and saw that the 4 horse had now dropped to 11-1. Had I been gifted with the ability to see the future, this knowledge would've changed my bet, for the better, but I now I had to live with the hand I'd dealt myself.
Well not only the 1, but the 2 and the 5 all raced for the lead and set some torrid fractions. The 6 trailed the lead group by about 3 lengths with the 7 a length further back. The 4 must've been somewhere in the back. As they came around the turn the 6 and 7 both made their runs and over took the lead group at the top of the stretch. I thought that was the way it would finish until I caught the 4 flying down the stretch. Now I was concerned because if the 7 finishes 3rd, I don't get paid. Fortunately, the 3 overtook the 6 and finished 2nd to the 4 turning my $1 exacta (actually $8 total in the exacta) into $112.20. Not a bad way to spend your lunch hour I'd say.
May the horse be with you
You may have heard or read that Turf Paradise was to be the target track this Saturday for the HANA Get In The Pool race. Unfortunately, many horseplayers have expressed some big concerns about the law in Arizona which makes it a felony to use an ADW. Many players were very uncomfortable with this. At the HANA conference call Wednesday night it was discussed and decided that we would NOT bet Turf Paradise because of this law.We will be doing R6 at Hawthorne this Saturday 4/25/2009 instead. This is a stakes race with an eleven horse field with a morning line favorite at 4-1. NICE AND JUICY. We also decided to target the RACE and not a specific pool. This way you can handicap the race as you normally would and bet the pool (WPS, Exacta, Tri, Super, etc.) where you see the most value.GOOD LUCK ON SATURDAY.Sincerely,Your HANA Team
I wish they had given more details regarding this absurd law. As I have been known to place a wager at Turf Paradise from the comfort of my living room now and again, I was concerned that I had committed some kind of vile, criminal act in the process. At least now, as I understand it, I'm only a criminal if I placed that wager at some location other than an OTB or the track in Arizona, so I guess I have not violated the law after all. Good, I'm not giving the money back.
Right now, if it were not for ADW, I would be personna non grata from racing at the moment due to the prescence of that new Jack Russell in my house. He demands your attention! I can't even handicap a race at home right now. So each day I have been dutifully downloading a form and finding a race or two at a western track like Hollywood, Golden Gate, or, dare I say it, Turf Paradise and playing the game when I get home from work. As you can see by my little box on the left, this tactic is working out pretty well for me. Thanks Patrick!
Today I scored with a double longshot, each horse at 11-1, exacta at Hollywood in race 3. The funny thing is, I handicapped this race during lunch with no idea of the who the swamis at TVG would like. They, the swamis, like the one horse and so did I as he appeared to be the speed on the rail, and for some reason they also liked the 5 horse. I didn't consider the 5 to be a contender because he had been losing pretty regularly to claimers and the others seemed to have been racing against better. I also rejected the 2 because he had been vanned off last out and even Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert couldn't lure me to that one. The 3 I had rejected because his speed figures just didn't measure up to the others, so unless everyone else faltered and the 3 got better, there was no way for him to win. That left me with the 1,4,6, and 7. The one opened at even money and ended up around 8/5. Underlay, no play. The 4 opened at 5 to 1. The 4 was my 4th choice and I needed 9/1 to play him to win. The 6 and 7 both opened at 14-1 so I licked my chops and got ready to split my win wager and box 6,7/1,4,6,7.
Then the TVG people started talking about the race and they almost talked me off the 4 in favor of the 5 until I referred back to my notes on the race and reminded myself what I didn't like about the 5 and what I liked about the 4. As race time approached the 6 had dropped to underlay status as the 4 had steadily drifted up and was lingering at 8-1, still not enough for a wager. The 7 was pretty solid at 11-1 so he was my huckleberry for the win wager and the key horse in the exacta box in which I also included the 5 as a concession to the wisdom of the TVG commentators. After entering my bet in the TBA spreadsheet I turned back to the odds and saw that the 4 horse had now dropped to 11-1. Had I been gifted with the ability to see the future, this knowledge would've changed my bet, for the better, but I now I had to live with the hand I'd dealt myself.
Well not only the 1, but the 2 and the 5 all raced for the lead and set some torrid fractions. The 6 trailed the lead group by about 3 lengths with the 7 a length further back. The 4 must've been somewhere in the back. As they came around the turn the 6 and 7 both made their runs and over took the lead group at the top of the stretch. I thought that was the way it would finish until I caught the 4 flying down the stretch. Now I was concerned because if the 7 finishes 3rd, I don't get paid. Fortunately, the 3 overtook the 6 and finished 2nd to the 4 turning my $1 exacta (actually $8 total in the exacta) into $112.20. Not a bad way to spend your lunch hour I'd say.
May the horse be with you
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Fair Grounds Stakes
This week the Publichandicappers.com races are all at the Fair Grounds which is one of my favorite tracks to play, so how could I resist.
The first race in the contest is #5 on the Program: The Bienville 75k for Fillies and Mares 4 years old and up contested at 5.5 f on the Turf track.
Aside, New Orleans is expecting rain today. If this race or the other Turf race is moved to the main track, all bets are off.
Here are the picks.
#4 Classify
3-1
7-2
#2 Tale To Be Told
7-2
5-1
#7 Lady Chace
4-1
6-1
#6 Precious Kiss
6-1
9-1
#4 Classify is 2 for 2 over the Fairgrounds Turf including a win in a similar race two ago. Asmussen will have his regular rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard #2 Tale to Be Told beat the top choice in November at Churchill. I wouldn't dismiss a cart horse on turf if Leparoux is riding it. #7 Lady Chace beat the top choice on dirt last out, but Classify seems to hold the edge on grass. #6 Precious Kiss is another that has beaten the top choice on dirt. Being the granddaughter of Kris S. gives her some turf pedigree and will make her dangerous is grandpa's influence is strong. She is somewhat inexperienced on grass and that may work against her.
The next contest race is #7 on the card. The G2 New Orleans Handicap for 4 and up. Distance 9f.
#10 Honest Man
3-1
9-2
#4 Dry Martini
7-2
5-1
#1 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#8 Good And Lucky
6-1
9-1
In a field of some really good, but no seemingly great horses I have to once again give the home team advantage to #10 Honest Man. HM is 4 of 5 over the FG track and won the G3 Mineshaft over this same course last out. #4 Dry Martini ships over from Gulfstream and should benefit from that excruciatingly long Fair Grounds stretch with his late running style. #1 It's A Bird also ships over from Gulfstream, but please don't call me a homer (although some have called me a Homer). Bird ran a big figure in the Sunshine Millions Classic, and I promise you that Wolfson's horses don't bounce. #8 Good and Lucky gets the nod over Wishful Tomcat for 4th contender due to home track advantage having 4 wins in 7 tries at the Fair Grounds
Race 8 is the Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial H. G2 For 4 and up again at 9f on the turf.
Again, if this one is moved to the main track, the following picks may be total nonsense. (so the difference would be?)
#6 Soldier's Dancer
3-1
9-2
#13 Proudinsky
7-2
5-1
#11 Demarcation
4-1
6-1
#1 Windward Islands
6-1
9-1
#6 Soldier's Dancer benefits from the fact that Proudinsky starts from the far outside 14th post does his best running late which may be helpful if the Fair Grounds gets enough rain to soften up the course without taking the race off the grass #13 gets to break from the far outside post. Maybe the long FG stretch will give him an opportunity to find a good position to race from. G2 winner I think is really the best here #11 Demarcation, winner of G2 event at Churchill last November figures to improve 2nd off layoff and 2nd trip over FG course. #1 Windward Islands is in good current form after finishing 2nd in the FG HDCP (G3) and should move forward off that effort.
Finally its the G2 Louisianna Derby (Race 9) at 8.5f for 3 year olds
#3 Patena
3-1
9-2
#9 Friesan Fire
7-2
5-1
#8 Papa Clem
4-1
6-1
#5 Flying Pegasus
6-1
9-1
#3 Patena is today's upset special being taken over by Richard Dutrow and IEAH. There is something remarkable about how horses suddenly improve first out under Dutrow's tutelage (This One's For Phil, for instance). Maybe he's just a great horseman, or maybe he cheats. Either way, he's 33% first time with a horse and 21% in Graded Stakes. Having leading FG rider Robbie Albarado doesn't hurt. #9 Friesan Fire has beaten 6 of the horses in this race before, including the top choice. A repeat would not surprise. #8 Papa Clem spent his last race chasing Pioneerofthe Nile and should set the pace in a relatively paceless race. #5 Flying Pegasus finished 2nd to the 9 last out, but Albardo moves to Patena. Hmmmm
That's all folks. Good luck and enjoy the races.
The first race in the contest is #5 on the Program: The Bienville 75k for Fillies and Mares 4 years old and up contested at 5.5 f on the Turf track.
Aside, New Orleans is expecting rain today. If this race or the other Turf race is moved to the main track, all bets are off.
Here are the picks.
#4 Classify
3-1
7-2
#2 Tale To Be Told
7-2
5-1
#7 Lady Chace
4-1
6-1
#6 Precious Kiss
6-1
9-1
#4 Classify is 2 for 2 over the Fairgrounds Turf including a win in a similar race two ago. Asmussen will have his regular rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard #2 Tale to Be Told beat the top choice in November at Churchill. I wouldn't dismiss a cart horse on turf if Leparoux is riding it. #7 Lady Chace beat the top choice on dirt last out, but Classify seems to hold the edge on grass. #6 Precious Kiss is another that has beaten the top choice on dirt. Being the granddaughter of Kris S. gives her some turf pedigree and will make her dangerous is grandpa's influence is strong. She is somewhat inexperienced on grass and that may work against her.
The next contest race is #7 on the card. The G2 New Orleans Handicap for 4 and up. Distance 9f.
#10 Honest Man
3-1
9-2
#4 Dry Martini
7-2
5-1
#1 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#8 Good And Lucky
6-1
9-1
In a field of some really good, but no seemingly great horses I have to once again give the home team advantage to #10 Honest Man. HM is 4 of 5 over the FG track and won the G3 Mineshaft over this same course last out. #4 Dry Martini ships over from Gulfstream and should benefit from that excruciatingly long Fair Grounds stretch with his late running style. #1 It's A Bird also ships over from Gulfstream, but please don't call me a homer (although some have called me a Homer). Bird ran a big figure in the Sunshine Millions Classic, and I promise you that Wolfson's horses don't bounce. #8 Good and Lucky gets the nod over Wishful Tomcat for 4th contender due to home track advantage having 4 wins in 7 tries at the Fair Grounds
Race 8 is the Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial H. G2 For 4 and up again at 9f on the turf.
Again, if this one is moved to the main track, the following picks may be total nonsense. (so the difference would be?)
#6 Soldier's Dancer
3-1
9-2
#13 Proudinsky
7-2
5-1
#11 Demarcation
4-1
6-1
#1 Windward Islands
6-1
9-1
#6 Soldier's Dancer benefits from the fact that Proudinsky starts from the far outside 14th post does his best running late which may be helpful if the Fair Grounds gets enough rain to soften up the course without taking the race off the grass #13 gets to break from the far outside post. Maybe the long FG stretch will give him an opportunity to find a good position to race from. G2 winner I think is really the best here #11 Demarcation, winner of G2 event at Churchill last November figures to improve 2nd off layoff and 2nd trip over FG course. #1 Windward Islands is in good current form after finishing 2nd in the FG HDCP (G3) and should move forward off that effort.
Finally its the G2 Louisianna Derby (Race 9) at 8.5f for 3 year olds
#3 Patena
3-1
9-2
#9 Friesan Fire
7-2
5-1
#8 Papa Clem
4-1
6-1
#5 Flying Pegasus
6-1
9-1
#3 Patena is today's upset special being taken over by Richard Dutrow and IEAH. There is something remarkable about how horses suddenly improve first out under Dutrow's tutelage (This One's For Phil, for instance). Maybe he's just a great horseman, or maybe he cheats. Either way, he's 33% first time with a horse and 21% in Graded Stakes. Having leading FG rider Robbie Albarado doesn't hurt. #9 Friesan Fire has beaten 6 of the horses in this race before, including the top choice. A repeat would not surprise. #8 Papa Clem spent his last race chasing Pioneerofthe Nile and should set the pace in a relatively paceless race. #5 Flying Pegasus finished 2nd to the 9 last out, but Albardo moves to Patena. Hmmmm
That's all folks. Good luck and enjoy the races.
Friday, March 6, 2009
So Now What?
OK. So Magna Entertainment Corp. finally filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy protection. We all knew it would happen, and I'm sure not breaking any news. So now what? What are the intentions of MI Developments, the apparent beneficiary of Magna's embarassment. MI played hardball with Magna with regards to extending due dates on loan payments. I don't know about you, but MI Developments doesn't sound like the type of company interested in running thoroughbred racing establishments. Can you say, year round racing at Calder Race Course?
No Publichandicapper picks this week. No I'm not totally embarassed by my dismal public performance thus far. I've just been up to my eyeballs at work this week and have barely had time for tomorrow's Gulfstream program. Just in case your keeping score, last week I lost 3 bets and the Sham at Santa Anita was a pass. Although one could make the case that The Pamplemousse had the race in hand gate to wire, at least I did get the satisfaction of having Take The Points at least give the appearance that there was a race going on for a good bit of the race. Take that Valerie!
One race that I am particularly looking forward to tomorrow at GP is race 8, a 7 furlong sprint for Maiden 3 year olds. I don't particularily care for these affairs for wagering purposes, but this one does feature some interesting characters. First Nicanor, Barbaro's full brother, makes his return to the races after taking much public abuse after his disappointing and overbet debut. In fairness, Nicanor did show a brief flash of potential before throwing in the towel, but he'll have to improve markedly to make a dent in this field. I'm willing to bet that he will be a somewhat longer price than 5 to 2 this time.
I'm looking for Dubinsky to give a better effort than last out turning back from a mile in what appears to be a perfect turnback set up. Patrick Reynolds is O for Gulfstream so far this season. Is there such a thing as due in horse racing?
There is also a Million Dollar horse, Big Top, making his debut for trainer Nick Zito. This grandson of Storm Cat has been tearing up the training track and firing bullets left and right. I am interested to see if this expensive mound of muscle can do the same when there are others on the track.
I will also take a personal interest in Woodford Manhattan, owned by the purveyor of my favorite bourbon, make his racing debut. The Woodford Reserve is on me should he be the winner.
However, the one they'll all likely be chasing to the finish line is Custom For Carlos. Custom For Carlos returns after finishing 2nd and running a 93 speed figure (Not Beyer's, but however Brisnet calculates it). Par for the race is 94, so any improvement at all in his 2nd effort figures to blow the competition away. I'm pretty sure CFC will be pretty heavily favored here, but these are 3 year olds so who knows what will happen?
And another thing. Why is it that they can get a full field of 14 for a run of the mill G3, 100k turf race? By the way, Wild Promises will be back to take some more Florida stakes money back to Cali with her. Yet, they can't find more than six Florida breds, three of whom including Hal's My Hopeless, have no business running in a 75k stakes race. Nothing personal to Hal's My Hope. It's not his fault his trainer, Barry Rose, keeps running him over his head. Is the state of Florida racing such a dismal affair that they can't fill a field to run for 75k. Yesbyjimminy should be the public choice here, and Hypocrite may give him a run for the money. Green Vegas may have a very outside chance, but other than that... Nada!
Well this has been quite the rant. I hope you've had as much fun as I had.
No Publichandicapper picks this week. No I'm not totally embarassed by my dismal public performance thus far. I've just been up to my eyeballs at work this week and have barely had time for tomorrow's Gulfstream program. Just in case your keeping score, last week I lost 3 bets and the Sham at Santa Anita was a pass. Although one could make the case that The Pamplemousse had the race in hand gate to wire, at least I did get the satisfaction of having Take The Points at least give the appearance that there was a race going on for a good bit of the race. Take that Valerie!
One race that I am particularly looking forward to tomorrow at GP is race 8, a 7 furlong sprint for Maiden 3 year olds. I don't particularily care for these affairs for wagering purposes, but this one does feature some interesting characters. First Nicanor, Barbaro's full brother, makes his return to the races after taking much public abuse after his disappointing and overbet debut. In fairness, Nicanor did show a brief flash of potential before throwing in the towel, but he'll have to improve markedly to make a dent in this field. I'm willing to bet that he will be a somewhat longer price than 5 to 2 this time.
I'm looking for Dubinsky to give a better effort than last out turning back from a mile in what appears to be a perfect turnback set up. Patrick Reynolds is O for Gulfstream so far this season. Is there such a thing as due in horse racing?
There is also a Million Dollar horse, Big Top, making his debut for trainer Nick Zito. This grandson of Storm Cat has been tearing up the training track and firing bullets left and right. I am interested to see if this expensive mound of muscle can do the same when there are others on the track.
I will also take a personal interest in Woodford Manhattan, owned by the purveyor of my favorite bourbon, make his racing debut. The Woodford Reserve is on me should he be the winner.
However, the one they'll all likely be chasing to the finish line is Custom For Carlos. Custom For Carlos returns after finishing 2nd and running a 93 speed figure (Not Beyer's, but however Brisnet calculates it). Par for the race is 94, so any improvement at all in his 2nd effort figures to blow the competition away. I'm pretty sure CFC will be pretty heavily favored here, but these are 3 year olds so who knows what will happen?
And another thing. Why is it that they can get a full field of 14 for a run of the mill G3, 100k turf race? By the way, Wild Promises will be back to take some more Florida stakes money back to Cali with her. Yet, they can't find more than six Florida breds, three of whom including Hal's My Hopeless, have no business running in a 75k stakes race. Nothing personal to Hal's My Hope. It's not his fault his trainer, Barry Rose, keeps running him over his head. Is the state of Florida racing such a dismal affair that they can't fill a field to run for 75k. Yesbyjimminy should be the public choice here, and Hypocrite may give him a run for the money. Green Vegas may have a very outside chance, but other than that... Nada!
Well this has been quite the rant. I hope you've had as much fun as I had.
Monday, February 16, 2009
Equal Time
A post or two ago I posted a review of Joseph J. Tuttle's book,"The Tuttle Way: Applied Methodologies On "How To" Interpret The Racing Form From A Winning Horseplayer". I also posted the same review on Amazon.
Now I have no desire to get into an internet shouting match, but I would like for you to read the authors response to my review. I'll let you, dear reader, be the judge.
joseph tuttle says:
Sir,
Evidently, you don't very much care that you're my only 1-star review; you only feel this insatiable need to "be heard"!!! Even though the long-winded nature of your review absolutely screams "COMPETITOR", or at the very least a friend of one. This is still America, and you're entitled to your opinion. But, that good sir is pretty pathetic, in my humble opinion. Have you even tried to put my methodologies to work? There's a very old saying professor...."Don't knock it, until you try it!" I make quite the comfortable living wagering on horses and/or sports. And, I've done so for almost 17 years! Go to www.thetuttleway.com to see my immense 152IQ at work, or to see that my #1 strength is my accessibility.
Below, is my home phone number, I would be more than happy to help you understand any/all of my theorems.
One more thing..... YOUR READING COMPREHENSION SKILLS ARE QUITE LACKING!!!!! I said that 90% of horses "switch leads" instinctively, OUT OF NECESSITY! The ones that are able to do it "on command" are the classy ones. You literally reworded my text, and on the basis of that alone I could have your review removed, but I won't.....BECAUSE, I HAVE CLASS!!!!!
Phone no. removed to protect Mr. Tuttle's privacy....Feel free to call me, if you dare, since you're also in Florida!
p.s. My Father was a harness horseman (primarilly), and died at age 83 in June of 2005. He wasn't famous, at all, and I certainly would hope that you might not be able to find anything on him, at google.
Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle
Now, the interesting thing is, I have twice spoken by telephone with Mr. Tuttle and he has since sent me about 5 of his books by PDF file. Actually, Mr. Tuttle was quite genial over the phone and it was a pleasure discussing his books and ideas. I look forward to many more meetings of mind with Mr. Tuttle.
Now I have no desire to get into an internet shouting match, but I would like for you to read the authors response to my review. I'll let you, dear reader, be the judge.
joseph tuttle says:
Sir,
Evidently, you don't very much care that you're my only 1-star review; you only feel this insatiable need to "be heard"!!! Even though the long-winded nature of your review absolutely screams "COMPETITOR", or at the very least a friend of one. This is still America, and you're entitled to your opinion. But, that good sir is pretty pathetic, in my humble opinion. Have you even tried to put my methodologies to work? There's a very old saying professor...."Don't knock it, until you try it!" I make quite the comfortable living wagering on horses and/or sports. And, I've done so for almost 17 years! Go to www.thetuttleway.com to see my immense 152IQ at work, or to see that my #1 strength is my accessibility.
Below, is my home phone number, I would be more than happy to help you understand any/all of my theorems.
One more thing..... YOUR READING COMPREHENSION SKILLS ARE QUITE LACKING!!!!! I said that 90% of horses "switch leads" instinctively, OUT OF NECESSITY! The ones that are able to do it "on command" are the classy ones. You literally reworded my text, and on the basis of that alone I could have your review removed, but I won't.....BECAUSE, I HAVE CLASS!!!!!
Phone no. removed to protect Mr. Tuttle's privacy....Feel free to call me, if you dare, since you're also in Florida!
p.s. My Father was a harness horseman (primarilly), and died at age 83 in June of 2005. He wasn't famous, at all, and I certainly would hope that you might not be able to find anything on him, at google.
Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle
Now, the interesting thing is, I have twice spoken by telephone with Mr. Tuttle and he has since sent me about 5 of his books by PDF file. Actually, Mr. Tuttle was quite genial over the phone and it was a pleasure discussing his books and ideas. I look forward to many more meetings of mind with Mr. Tuttle.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Book Review: Winning Moves: How To Win At Horse Racing
Welcome back to my little corner of the internet. I would have posted sooner. In fact I wasted several valuable hours writing an article last week about how the 11-1 Kiss The Kid was completely over looked in the Fort Lauderdale Handicap last week. Unfortunately, it sounded more like I was patting myself on the back for the excellent handicapping job I did in that race than the actual point I was trying to make, so I abandoned the project altogether.
This week I intend to review a relatively recent book release by Prentice Mannetter entitled Winning Moves: How To Win At Horse Racing.
The first question to ask is, who is Prentice Mannetter and why would you buy a book from him purporting to tell you about how to win at horse racing? I'm afraid there is not much to reveal about that. The author doesn't write much about himself personally except to say he is not a "professional" horse player. That statement alone doesn't bother me as I think there are alot of "professional" horse players out there who seem to make lots of income by means other than wagering on horses. However many of these professionals do at least keep their sidelines in the realm of thoroughbred racing. The author does not elaborate on what his actual profession is. A Google search revealed nothing.
To the book itself. The author opens with a discussion of catalysts and changes. For those of you not familiar with what a catalyst actually is, it can be defined as an agent that facilitates change in another object without actually altering itself. Biologically, enzymes can be considered catalysts as they facilitate chemical reactions that are necessary for us to maintain our current state of animation.
Then the author lists and discusses various "catalysts" he believes will effect the outcome of a race. I use the term "catalysts" advisedly as I don't believe the author properly applies the definition, but this is mere semantics and, really, a minor quibble. What the author really describes are existing traits of the horse such as how fast can it run, or changes such as claims, class drops, equipment changes, etc. There is nothing really new here. In fact, the book started to remind me alot of "The One-Minute Handicapper" by Frank DiTondo, except the author didn't provide the neat charts and dry erase boards and markers.
Next the author takes us through and handicaps a card using the methodology. The first thing the author does is separate contenders from non-contenders using speed figures. Already now I have parted ways with the author. While it is my belief that speed figures can be useful, I don't feel that speed figures can simply be taken at face value as there are many factors in racing that can effect how fast a horse actually runs in a given race. Automatically eliminating horses because they don't meet a criteria such as speed figures can take you off of many live horses at long prices.
The author chooses to go through the Jan. 19, 2008 Fairgrounds card, wins a few, loses a few, and some get rained out. You, dear reader, can take that for what its worth as even the author admits that you've never seen any book writer demonstrate a losing day using his method. I have to say, after the first race or two, my eyes started to glaze over. I noted on the notes page that was conveniently provided that the author didn't seem to take into account the surface or track conditions that the figures were acquired on, nor did he mention the current condition of the Fair Grounds track. However I did note that the turf races had been moved to dirt possibly implying that these races were run on an off track. Long story short, the gist of the method seemed to be tallying up the changes, and the horses with the most changes are the choices. Somehow, that seems to be just a little too simplistic to handicap something as complex as a horse race.
Next the author takes us on a discussion of race shapes and how to use Quirin figures to determine the probable front runners, pressers, stalkers, and closers. He discusses various strategies to use depending on how the horses sort out based on the Q figs. (Side note: For those of you who use the DRF, Q figs are not provided and you have to calculate them yourselves. The Brisnet PP's do provide the Q figs.) The information provided in this chapter will be useful to new handicappers but doesn't reveal anything new to experienced handicappers who are already well familiar with the effects speed duels, or a loose on the lead horse can have on a race.
After the race shape interlude, its back to handicapping more races from other tracks for January 19 and more of the same. Eventually I just had to skip ahead to the next chapter where the author provides some advice on record keeping and capital preservation.
To the author's credit, the importance to record keeping and money management to the serious horseplayer are often given short shrift in many handicapping books. Of course, if one is not a serious horseplayer, why worry about long-term results at the races if you only go on Derby day. Unfortunately, here the author tells you that record keeping and capital preservation are important but not much more. In other words, he gives short shrift to the topic here, but does discuss it in more detail later.
Next there is the plug for the computer program at winmoneybetting.com. (which is currently not avaiable according to the web-site). The plug acts as a kind of intermission to part 2 of the book called Winning moves.
In this section of the book we are given betting strategies and advice. Told we need to find the right handicapping method best fitting our own personal strengths and weaknesses, and why people lose. Then we are treated "Handicapping General" which offers a potpourri of racing generalisms, and "Money Management" where the author gives a few more details on methods of capital preservation.
The author discusses in particular the Martingale system and why it is not a particularly good method of capital preservation. He discusses the pros and cons of using a simple percentage of your bank roll (which is my personal method due to its simplicity), and the advantages and disadvantages of the Kelly and 1/2 Kelly systems (which I've tried but gave up on because I was spending so much time trying to calculate what my proper bet would be I couldn't focus on anything else). And probably a few more that I can't really recall because by this time he was starting to get repetitive, and I was beginning to doze off from lack of interest.
In summary, this is not a book I can recommend. The organization of the book seems to be somewhat chaotic as the author flits about from topic to topic in a seemingly random manner. While the author does cover a broad swath of handicapping topics, he really doesn't offer anything new to the discussion, and these topics have already been covered better and in more detail by other authors. I can't even recommend the actual handicapping section for beginners because I think they will treat it as a mechanical, no-brainer method without bothering with the nuances that the author does try to elaborate on in some parts of the book.
If I have to give the book a rating in horsey terms, I'd have to say that it finished up the track and out of the money for me.
No Public Handicapper picks this week as I went to the Panthers game (hockey) last night. However, I can provide some insight on the G3 MisterProspector Hdcp from Gulfstream Park.
If you like the Horse for course angle the #1 Kelly's Landing 3 for 6 and 5 for 6 ITM @ GP should impress. But the 8 year old won only one race in 2008, and OC80kN1Y while not showing the form necessary to win against stakes graded racers. In addition, the rail post offers a slight disadvantage at the 6f distance. I think Kelly's Landing best days are behind him and Leparoux can't turn back time.
#2 Granizo makes North American debut and has won 6 of 7 in Brazil. But the Chalk Eating Weasel is not impressed by life-time earnings of 13k and change and will pass on this one.
#3 How's Your Halo (remember him) is a good hard working horse but all of his wins have come within the friendly confines of Calder Race Course. Now this race is only a 15 minute drive across town. How's Your Halo did finish 2nd to Benny the Bull, no shame there. But I don't think he is a legitimate win candidate here. Definitely could finish in the money though so don't ignore entirely.
#4 Black Seventeen is my Chalk Eating Huckleberry for this race. Everyone seems to focus on his subpar Breeder's cup performance and seem to forget about the G1 Vosburgh win the race before. Jeebus! There are alot of horses who have, shall we say, less than stellar running lines from the Breeder's Cup races, and some of them have since won! After taking a break for November and December Black Seventeen came back and finished 3rd in a G3 race at Santa Anita. Black Seventeen is the only horse Brian Koriner will have run at GP today or this season so far. Black Seventeen is the only horse C. L. Potts is riding today. I don't think they are making the trip for the waters, and they're not eligible for the Fountain of Youth (a little Casablanca and Florida humor for you there). I've seen this pattern before. Greg Gilchrist and A.T. Gryder made the same trip successfully for the G3 My Charmer Hdcp at Calder with Wild promises a month ago.
BS may be the favorite this race, but may not be as there are a couple of "Johnny come lately's" with flashy speed figures yet to be discussed.
#5 Ikigai is the Marty Wolfson entry. This speedy horse will most certainly go to the lead, but so far has not demonstrated the ability to maintain that speed beyond 5 1/2 furlongs. Still dangerous if he's learned to relax on the lead.
#6 He's So Chic is the Weasel's number 2 contender and is one of those flashy speed figure horses we've spoken of. He ran a blistering 108 (and its not his only triple digit effort) in a minor stakes finishing in 2nd. Jason Servis wins 27% of the time and Jose Lezcano has been having a very good meet so far. The only knock is lack of Graded Stakes experience. That may no longer be a knock after today.
#7 Rollers had 4 consecutive triple digit speed figures before faltering on a muddy Aqueduct track last out. Rollers is another making his Graded stakes debut, but he has won a pricey (250k) non-graded affair at Philadelphia. Barclay Tagg is 22% trainer for Graded Stakes, so he knows how to get them ready. In addition, I have a growing respect for Alan Garcia, so I'm expecting a good effort from Rollers as my #3 contender. Oh, I almost forgot to mention that my main knock against Rollers is that his best races seem to those that are restricted to NY state breds, so I will only use him at a high price as this is one of those little nuances that can have effects on speed figures (level of competition).
That's it for today. Good Luck
This week I intend to review a relatively recent book release by Prentice Mannetter entitled Winning Moves: How To Win At Horse Racing.
The first question to ask is, who is Prentice Mannetter and why would you buy a book from him purporting to tell you about how to win at horse racing? I'm afraid there is not much to reveal about that. The author doesn't write much about himself personally except to say he is not a "professional" horse player. That statement alone doesn't bother me as I think there are alot of "professional" horse players out there who seem to make lots of income by means other than wagering on horses. However many of these professionals do at least keep their sidelines in the realm of thoroughbred racing. The author does not elaborate on what his actual profession is. A Google search revealed nothing.
To the book itself. The author opens with a discussion of catalysts and changes. For those of you not familiar with what a catalyst actually is, it can be defined as an agent that facilitates change in another object without actually altering itself. Biologically, enzymes can be considered catalysts as they facilitate chemical reactions that are necessary for us to maintain our current state of animation.
Then the author lists and discusses various "catalysts" he believes will effect the outcome of a race. I use the term "catalysts" advisedly as I don't believe the author properly applies the definition, but this is mere semantics and, really, a minor quibble. What the author really describes are existing traits of the horse such as how fast can it run, or changes such as claims, class drops, equipment changes, etc. There is nothing really new here. In fact, the book started to remind me alot of "The One-Minute Handicapper" by Frank DiTondo, except the author didn't provide the neat charts and dry erase boards and markers.
Next the author takes us through and handicaps a card using the methodology. The first thing the author does is separate contenders from non-contenders using speed figures. Already now I have parted ways with the author. While it is my belief that speed figures can be useful, I don't feel that speed figures can simply be taken at face value as there are many factors in racing that can effect how fast a horse actually runs in a given race. Automatically eliminating horses because they don't meet a criteria such as speed figures can take you off of many live horses at long prices.
The author chooses to go through the Jan. 19, 2008 Fairgrounds card, wins a few, loses a few, and some get rained out. You, dear reader, can take that for what its worth as even the author admits that you've never seen any book writer demonstrate a losing day using his method. I have to say, after the first race or two, my eyes started to glaze over. I noted on the notes page that was conveniently provided that the author didn't seem to take into account the surface or track conditions that the figures were acquired on, nor did he mention the current condition of the Fair Grounds track. However I did note that the turf races had been moved to dirt possibly implying that these races were run on an off track. Long story short, the gist of the method seemed to be tallying up the changes, and the horses with the most changes are the choices. Somehow, that seems to be just a little too simplistic to handicap something as complex as a horse race.
Next the author takes us on a discussion of race shapes and how to use Quirin figures to determine the probable front runners, pressers, stalkers, and closers. He discusses various strategies to use depending on how the horses sort out based on the Q figs. (Side note: For those of you who use the DRF, Q figs are not provided and you have to calculate them yourselves. The Brisnet PP's do provide the Q figs.) The information provided in this chapter will be useful to new handicappers but doesn't reveal anything new to experienced handicappers who are already well familiar with the effects speed duels, or a loose on the lead horse can have on a race.
After the race shape interlude, its back to handicapping more races from other tracks for January 19 and more of the same. Eventually I just had to skip ahead to the next chapter where the author provides some advice on record keeping and capital preservation.
To the author's credit, the importance to record keeping and money management to the serious horseplayer are often given short shrift in many handicapping books. Of course, if one is not a serious horseplayer, why worry about long-term results at the races if you only go on Derby day. Unfortunately, here the author tells you that record keeping and capital preservation are important but not much more. In other words, he gives short shrift to the topic here, but does discuss it in more detail later.
Next there is the plug for the computer program at winmoneybetting.com. (which is currently not avaiable according to the web-site). The plug acts as a kind of intermission to part 2 of the book called Winning moves.
In this section of the book we are given betting strategies and advice. Told we need to find the right handicapping method best fitting our own personal strengths and weaknesses, and why people lose. Then we are treated "Handicapping General" which offers a potpourri of racing generalisms, and "Money Management" where the author gives a few more details on methods of capital preservation.
The author discusses in particular the Martingale system and why it is not a particularly good method of capital preservation. He discusses the pros and cons of using a simple percentage of your bank roll (which is my personal method due to its simplicity), and the advantages and disadvantages of the Kelly and 1/2 Kelly systems (which I've tried but gave up on because I was spending so much time trying to calculate what my proper bet would be I couldn't focus on anything else). And probably a few more that I can't really recall because by this time he was starting to get repetitive, and I was beginning to doze off from lack of interest.
In summary, this is not a book I can recommend. The organization of the book seems to be somewhat chaotic as the author flits about from topic to topic in a seemingly random manner. While the author does cover a broad swath of handicapping topics, he really doesn't offer anything new to the discussion, and these topics have already been covered better and in more detail by other authors. I can't even recommend the actual handicapping section for beginners because I think they will treat it as a mechanical, no-brainer method without bothering with the nuances that the author does try to elaborate on in some parts of the book.
If I have to give the book a rating in horsey terms, I'd have to say that it finished up the track and out of the money for me.
No Public Handicapper picks this week as I went to the Panthers game (hockey) last night. However, I can provide some insight on the G3 MisterProspector Hdcp from Gulfstream Park.
If you like the Horse for course angle the #1 Kelly's Landing 3 for 6 and 5 for 6 ITM @ GP should impress. But the 8 year old won only one race in 2008, and OC80kN1Y while not showing the form necessary to win against stakes graded racers. In addition, the rail post offers a slight disadvantage at the 6f distance. I think Kelly's Landing best days are behind him and Leparoux can't turn back time.
#2 Granizo makes North American debut and has won 6 of 7 in Brazil. But the Chalk Eating Weasel is not impressed by life-time earnings of 13k and change and will pass on this one.
#3 How's Your Halo (remember him) is a good hard working horse but all of his wins have come within the friendly confines of Calder Race Course. Now this race is only a 15 minute drive across town. How's Your Halo did finish 2nd to Benny the Bull, no shame there. But I don't think he is a legitimate win candidate here. Definitely could finish in the money though so don't ignore entirely.
#4 Black Seventeen is my Chalk Eating Huckleberry for this race. Everyone seems to focus on his subpar Breeder's cup performance and seem to forget about the G1 Vosburgh win the race before. Jeebus! There are alot of horses who have, shall we say, less than stellar running lines from the Breeder's Cup races, and some of them have since won! After taking a break for November and December Black Seventeen came back and finished 3rd in a G3 race at Santa Anita. Black Seventeen is the only horse Brian Koriner will have run at GP today or this season so far. Black Seventeen is the only horse C. L. Potts is riding today. I don't think they are making the trip for the waters, and they're not eligible for the Fountain of Youth (a little Casablanca and Florida humor for you there). I've seen this pattern before. Greg Gilchrist and A.T. Gryder made the same trip successfully for the G3 My Charmer Hdcp at Calder with Wild promises a month ago.
BS may be the favorite this race, but may not be as there are a couple of "Johnny come lately's" with flashy speed figures yet to be discussed.
#5 Ikigai is the Marty Wolfson entry. This speedy horse will most certainly go to the lead, but so far has not demonstrated the ability to maintain that speed beyond 5 1/2 furlongs. Still dangerous if he's learned to relax on the lead.
#6 He's So Chic is the Weasel's number 2 contender and is one of those flashy speed figure horses we've spoken of. He ran a blistering 108 (and its not his only triple digit effort) in a minor stakes finishing in 2nd. Jason Servis wins 27% of the time and Jose Lezcano has been having a very good meet so far. The only knock is lack of Graded Stakes experience. That may no longer be a knock after today.
#7 Rollers had 4 consecutive triple digit speed figures before faltering on a muddy Aqueduct track last out. Rollers is another making his Graded stakes debut, but he has won a pricey (250k) non-graded affair at Philadelphia. Barclay Tagg is 22% trainer for Graded Stakes, so he knows how to get them ready. In addition, I have a growing respect for Alan Garcia, so I'm expecting a good effort from Rollers as my #3 contender. Oh, I almost forgot to mention that my main knock against Rollers is that his best races seem to those that are restricted to NY state breds, so I will only use him at a high price as this is one of those little nuances that can have effects on speed figures (level of competition).
That's it for today. Good Luck
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