This week the Publichandicappers.com races are all at the Fair Grounds which is one of my favorite tracks to play, so how could I resist.
The first race in the contest is #5 on the Program: The Bienville 75k for Fillies and Mares 4 years old and up contested at 5.5 f on the Turf track.
Aside, New Orleans is expecting rain today. If this race or the other Turf race is moved to the main track, all bets are off.
Here are the picks.
#4 Classify
3-1
7-2
#2 Tale To Be Told
7-2
5-1
#7 Lady Chace
4-1
6-1
#6 Precious Kiss
6-1
9-1
#4 Classify is 2 for 2 over the Fairgrounds Turf including a win in a similar race two ago. Asmussen will have his regular rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard #2 Tale to Be Told beat the top choice in November at Churchill. I wouldn't dismiss a cart horse on turf if Leparoux is riding it. #7 Lady Chace beat the top choice on dirt last out, but Classify seems to hold the edge on grass. #6 Precious Kiss is another that has beaten the top choice on dirt. Being the granddaughter of Kris S. gives her some turf pedigree and will make her dangerous is grandpa's influence is strong. She is somewhat inexperienced on grass and that may work against her.
The next contest race is #7 on the card. The G2 New Orleans Handicap for 4 and up. Distance 9f.
#10 Honest Man
3-1
9-2
#4 Dry Martini
7-2
5-1
#1 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#8 Good And Lucky
6-1
9-1
In a field of some really good, but no seemingly great horses I have to once again give the home team advantage to #10 Honest Man. HM is 4 of 5 over the FG track and won the G3 Mineshaft over this same course last out. #4 Dry Martini ships over from Gulfstream and should benefit from that excruciatingly long Fair Grounds stretch with his late running style. #1 It's A Bird also ships over from Gulfstream, but please don't call me a homer (although some have called me a Homer). Bird ran a big figure in the Sunshine Millions Classic, and I promise you that Wolfson's horses don't bounce. #8 Good and Lucky gets the nod over Wishful Tomcat for 4th contender due to home track advantage having 4 wins in 7 tries at the Fair Grounds
Race 8 is the Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial H. G2 For 4 and up again at 9f on the turf.
Again, if this one is moved to the main track, the following picks may be total nonsense. (so the difference would be?)
#6 Soldier's Dancer
3-1
9-2
#13 Proudinsky
7-2
5-1
#11 Demarcation
4-1
6-1
#1 Windward Islands
6-1
9-1
#6 Soldier's Dancer benefits from the fact that Proudinsky starts from the far outside 14th post does his best running late which may be helpful if the Fair Grounds gets enough rain to soften up the course without taking the race off the grass #13 gets to break from the far outside post. Maybe the long FG stretch will give him an opportunity to find a good position to race from. G2 winner I think is really the best here #11 Demarcation, winner of G2 event at Churchill last November figures to improve 2nd off layoff and 2nd trip over FG course. #1 Windward Islands is in good current form after finishing 2nd in the FG HDCP (G3) and should move forward off that effort.
Finally its the G2 Louisianna Derby (Race 9) at 8.5f for 3 year olds
#3 Patena
3-1
9-2
#9 Friesan Fire
7-2
5-1
#8 Papa Clem
4-1
6-1
#5 Flying Pegasus
6-1
9-1
#3 Patena is today's upset special being taken over by Richard Dutrow and IEAH. There is something remarkable about how horses suddenly improve first out under Dutrow's tutelage (This One's For Phil, for instance). Maybe he's just a great horseman, or maybe he cheats. Either way, he's 33% first time with a horse and 21% in Graded Stakes. Having leading FG rider Robbie Albarado doesn't hurt. #9 Friesan Fire has beaten 6 of the horses in this race before, including the top choice. A repeat would not surprise. #8 Papa Clem spent his last race chasing Pioneerofthe Nile and should set the pace in a relatively paceless race. #5 Flying Pegasus finished 2nd to the 9 last out, but Albardo moves to Patena. Hmmmm
That's all folks. Good luck and enjoy the races.
Showing posts with label Fair Grounds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fair Grounds. Show all posts
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Handicapping Questions
Here's a poser for you. The first race Saturday at Gulfstream Park will pit 3 year old Maidens against their old brethren. Therefore the question, can 3 year olds compete with 4 year olds this time of year? Now, in case you're wondering, the older horses are spotting their juniors 8 pounds. But what to look for? Well this is going to be a time when saving all those results charts is going to help.
The first race today was at a mile and eighth for 3 and up fillies and mares. This race was won by a 3 yo with a 4yo finishing 2nd and another 3 yo up for the show.
The fifth race was a similar for the other gender. This time won by a 4 yo with a 3yo 2nd and a 5yo gelding 3rd. Hmmm. Does 8 or 9 pounds really mean that much? I may have to reexamine some of my beliefs here.
I should point out that in both of these races, the 3 year olds seemed to have the post position advantages with the inside posts being very advantageous at this distance on Gulfstreams dirt track. The fifth race was run by a horse coming out of the 7 hole which is the farthest out I will even consider for win contention at this distance, unless your name is Big Brown.
There was a 5.5 furlong sprint on the 11th for fillies and mares where the 4 yo's had their way with the younger crowd. Maybe distance is important. After all carrying all that extra weight would seem to take it's toll nearer the end than the beginning.
On March 6th a 7 furlong race for 3 and up claimers N2L was carded but there were no 3 year old takers, and the same again on March 4. So it seems that trainers will throw their 3 yo maidens out there against older maidens, but not against winners.
A limited sample, I admit. But I think I have to give the edge to the older horses on Saturday going a mile. Neither of the contending 4 year olds are breaking from an inside post, which has been a disadvantage for the GP mile.
Now for an update on the short field long price theory. Just to remind you, it has been suggested that playing the longest priced horse in a field of 7 or fewer can be a successful betting angle. In today's 4th race there was just such a winner as Storm Slew crossed the wire first paying a hefty $68.00 on a $2.00 wager for a 33-1 winner.
I have not been able to add to the count from my Calder charts due to a heavier than normal work load. I have been able to keep up with the progress at Gulfstream Park. To date for the meet this angle has won 6 times in 80 opportunities for a 7.5% hit rate. However, with an average winning mutual of 33.4-1 you would have gained a $1.15 for every dollar wagered. That's not too shabby so long as you have the patience to wait through the dry spells. The last winning wager using this angle at GP came on Feb. 22. Thirty-two wagers ago.
I still wonder if this angle would hold true for most tracks or are some tracks more amenable than others to this angle. That's why I'd really love to dig into the Calder charts, but I just haven't had the time to process the data.
Maybe I'll have to eat some crow and retract my assessment of Mr. J. J. Tuttle. But not yet.
The first race today was at a mile and eighth for 3 and up fillies and mares. This race was won by a 3 yo with a 4yo finishing 2nd and another 3 yo up for the show.
The fifth race was a similar for the other gender. This time won by a 4 yo with a 3yo 2nd and a 5yo gelding 3rd. Hmmm. Does 8 or 9 pounds really mean that much? I may have to reexamine some of my beliefs here.
I should point out that in both of these races, the 3 year olds seemed to have the post position advantages with the inside posts being very advantageous at this distance on Gulfstreams dirt track. The fifth race was run by a horse coming out of the 7 hole which is the farthest out I will even consider for win contention at this distance, unless your name is Big Brown.
There was a 5.5 furlong sprint on the 11th for fillies and mares where the 4 yo's had their way with the younger crowd. Maybe distance is important. After all carrying all that extra weight would seem to take it's toll nearer the end than the beginning.
On March 6th a 7 furlong race for 3 and up claimers N2L was carded but there were no 3 year old takers, and the same again on March 4. So it seems that trainers will throw their 3 yo maidens out there against older maidens, but not against winners.
A limited sample, I admit. But I think I have to give the edge to the older horses on Saturday going a mile. Neither of the contending 4 year olds are breaking from an inside post, which has been a disadvantage for the GP mile.
Now for an update on the short field long price theory. Just to remind you, it has been suggested that playing the longest priced horse in a field of 7 or fewer can be a successful betting angle. In today's 4th race there was just such a winner as Storm Slew crossed the wire first paying a hefty $68.00 on a $2.00 wager for a 33-1 winner.
I have not been able to add to the count from my Calder charts due to a heavier than normal work load. I have been able to keep up with the progress at Gulfstream Park. To date for the meet this angle has won 6 times in 80 opportunities for a 7.5% hit rate. However, with an average winning mutual of 33.4-1 you would have gained a $1.15 for every dollar wagered. That's not too shabby so long as you have the patience to wait through the dry spells. The last winning wager using this angle at GP came on Feb. 22. Thirty-two wagers ago.
I still wonder if this angle would hold true for most tracks or are some tracks more amenable than others to this angle. That's why I'd really love to dig into the Calder charts, but I just haven't had the time to process the data.
Maybe I'll have to eat some crow and retract my assessment of Mr. J. J. Tuttle. But not yet.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
P H picks for Feb. 21
It's another beautiful day for racing in Sunny South Florida at the Hallandale Beach Gargantuan known as Gulfsteam Park Racing and Casino. What? They have a casino here? Anyhow, I know you are all waiting to see what I've come up with this week. Especially after last weeks lowly 1 for 3 showing ( 0 for 2 if you foolishly followed my betting instructions). The betting instructions can be found in last weeks post, so, without further ado, here are the Saturday Public Handicapper.com picks
First up is the Mac Diarmida Stakes G2 for Four Year Olds and Upward from Gulfstream Park
1 and 3/8 miles on the Turf
#6 Always First
3-1
9-2
#12 Pressious Passion
7-2
5-1
#3 Spice Route
4-1
6-1
#5 Quasicobra
6-1
9-1
#6 G3 winner loves distance comes in fresh #12 extreme outside post prevents from favoritism, can still win here #3 Has run very well in G1 distance races at Woodbine #5 With Leparoux on top is just the kind of long shot I love on the grass.
Excuse the brief analysis, I was doing that one late last night. Now, moving on.
Tampa Bay Stakes 150k for Four Year Olds and Upward 1 and 1/16 miles on the Turf.
#7 Furthest Land
3-1
9-2
#3 Classic Campaign
5-2
5-1
#4 Society's Chairman
7-2
5-1
#1 Atoned
5-1
8-1
This week I am again going for the invaders at Tampa Bay. You'd think I'd learn, but I just didn't think that much of the local talent. #7 Top choice is a Michael Maker horse who showed a great closing kick in winning a 75k Optional Claimer last out at Gulfstream. Has won three in a row and makes stakes debut. #3 ships over from the Fair Grounds for Bill Mott drops down out of a 4th place Grade 3 effort and should find the company a little easier here. #4 Just missed in the Ft. Lauderdale to Kiss the Kid and could run good enough here. #1 is the only Graded stakes winner in the field, but the inside post is 0 for 27 so I have down graded Atoned's chances. In addition, Pletcher had to bring his 2nd stringer, DeCarlo, over for this race as J.R. chose to stay at Gulfstream. What does that tell you?
Then up to Florence, Ky for the 50k Valdale Stakes for Three Year Old Fillies to be contested at a mile over whatever that fake stuff is called they use there.
#10 Spoilher
3-1
9-2
#3 Tacky Cat
7-2
5-1
#6 Emma Darling
4-1
6-1
#7 Karacuda
6-1
9-1
Many of these horse faced each other in the Cincinnati Trophy, but I'm going to the speed horse in the race as the Spoilher. #10 crushed on non-conditioned Allowance field last out at the distance and is 2 for 3 over the course. #3 winner of the C. T. didn't wait to break her maiden before winning C.T. and should be in a good position for a repeat performance. #6 Finished 3rd in C.T. after going 6 wide. The distance should be a better fit here. Michael Maker is a 30% trainer and is an automatic bet in almost every training category. #7 Has lost to the 3 and 6 before, but has run to par so would not completely surprise if she turned the tables here.
Last, but certainly never least, The Valentine Dancer Handicap 100k for California Bred Fillies and Mares 4 Years Old and Upward to be contested at 1 Mile on the Turf.
#2 Christiana's Heat
5-2
4-1
#7 Tiz A Blend
4-1
6-1
#3 Bel Air Sizzle
5-1
8-1
#11 Gambler's Justice
6-1
9-1
Just a note about this race if you've been following the Jockey's series on Animal Planet. It will be interesting to see if Aaron Gryder can stay on One Bad Kitty in the gate today. However the #2 horse has been showing excellent recent form and should be the one to beat . #7 Don't be fooled by the two recent outings by this one as she returns to her favored surface, the projected improvement should not be a surprise. #3 Disappointed on Sunshine Million day, but a return to home and a positive jockey change to Go Go Gomez may be the tonic this one needs #11 This one seems to perk up for the state bred races and the outside post could be a help. Still only 2nd time on grass and coming off a 2 month layoff so some discretion is in order here.
Well that's all for this time. I'm and hour and 40 minutes from leaving the starting gate for GP myself. Here's hoping I did better than last week. And if you want a really hot tip, just bet on the horses I didn't mention and you'll probably do alright.
First up is the Mac Diarmida Stakes G2 for Four Year Olds and Upward from Gulfstream Park
1 and 3/8 miles on the Turf
#6 Always First
3-1
9-2
#12 Pressious Passion
7-2
5-1
#3 Spice Route
4-1
6-1
#5 Quasicobra
6-1
9-1
#6 G3 winner loves distance comes in fresh #12 extreme outside post prevents from favoritism, can still win here #3 Has run very well in G1 distance races at Woodbine #5 With Leparoux on top is just the kind of long shot I love on the grass.
Excuse the brief analysis, I was doing that one late last night. Now, moving on.
Tampa Bay Stakes 150k for Four Year Olds and Upward 1 and 1/16 miles on the Turf.
#7 Furthest Land
3-1
9-2
#3 Classic Campaign
5-2
5-1
#4 Society's Chairman
7-2
5-1
#1 Atoned
5-1
8-1
This week I am again going for the invaders at Tampa Bay. You'd think I'd learn, but I just didn't think that much of the local talent. #7 Top choice is a Michael Maker horse who showed a great closing kick in winning a 75k Optional Claimer last out at Gulfstream. Has won three in a row and makes stakes debut. #3 ships over from the Fair Grounds for Bill Mott drops down out of a 4th place Grade 3 effort and should find the company a little easier here. #4 Just missed in the Ft. Lauderdale to Kiss the Kid and could run good enough here. #1 is the only Graded stakes winner in the field, but the inside post is 0 for 27 so I have down graded Atoned's chances. In addition, Pletcher had to bring his 2nd stringer, DeCarlo, over for this race as J.R. chose to stay at Gulfstream. What does that tell you?
Then up to Florence, Ky for the 50k Valdale Stakes for Three Year Old Fillies to be contested at a mile over whatever that fake stuff is called they use there.
#10 Spoilher
3-1
9-2
#3 Tacky Cat
7-2
5-1
#6 Emma Darling
4-1
6-1
#7 Karacuda
6-1
9-1
Many of these horse faced each other in the Cincinnati Trophy, but I'm going to the speed horse in the race as the Spoilher. #10 crushed on non-conditioned Allowance field last out at the distance and is 2 for 3 over the course. #3 winner of the C. T. didn't wait to break her maiden before winning C.T. and should be in a good position for a repeat performance. #6 Finished 3rd in C.T. after going 6 wide. The distance should be a better fit here. Michael Maker is a 30% trainer and is an automatic bet in almost every training category. #7 Has lost to the 3 and 6 before, but has run to par so would not completely surprise if she turned the tables here.
Last, but certainly never least, The Valentine Dancer Handicap 100k for California Bred Fillies and Mares 4 Years Old and Upward to be contested at 1 Mile on the Turf.
#2 Christiana's Heat
5-2
4-1
#7 Tiz A Blend
4-1
6-1
#3 Bel Air Sizzle
5-1
8-1
#11 Gambler's Justice
6-1
9-1
Just a note about this race if you've been following the Jockey's series on Animal Planet. It will be interesting to see if Aaron Gryder can stay on One Bad Kitty in the gate today. However the #2 horse has been showing excellent recent form and should be the one to beat . #7 Don't be fooled by the two recent outings by this one as she returns to her favored surface, the projected improvement should not be a surprise. #3 Disappointed on Sunshine Million day, but a return to home and a positive jockey change to Go Go Gomez may be the tonic this one needs #11 This one seems to perk up for the state bred races and the outside post could be a help. Still only 2nd time on grass and coming off a 2 month layoff so some discretion is in order here.
Well that's all for this time. I'm and hour and 40 minutes from leaving the starting gate for GP myself. Here's hoping I did better than last week. And if you want a really hot tip, just bet on the horses I didn't mention and you'll probably do alright.
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Public Handicapper Quick Picks
Mundane day for racing at GP today. Could just as easily be at CRC, so I handicapped the day accordingly. Big Stakes day at Fair Grounds, one of my favorite tracks to play, with 3 PH races to pick. Add one from Santa Anita and you have the beginnning of a new contest.
I didn't win, or even come close, to winning The Winter of Our Discontent but did have a positive ROI for the contest.
Time is short and I lost my Fair Grounds analysis, long story, so you'll have to trust me.
Race 6
#8 Honest Man
3-1
9-2
#2 Good and Lucky
4-1
6-1
#1 Secret Getaway
9-2
7-1
#4 Grasshopper
5-1
8-1
Race 7
#7 Demarcation
3-1
9-2
#1 French Beret
7-2
5-1
#2 Jimmy Simms
9-2
7-1
#5 Diamond Tycoon
6-1
9-1
Race 9
#6 Friesen fire
3-1
9-2
#7 Giant Oak
7-2
5-1
#4 It Happened Again
4-1
6-1
#5 Uno Mas
6-1
9-1
And the Strub from Santa Anita where I am going against the favored Cowboy Cal (distance)
#5 Gio Ponti
3-1
9-2
#7 Nownownow
7-2
5-1
#1 Dixie Chatter
4-1
6-1
#9 Wishful Tomcat
6-1
9-1
#5 has demonstrated ability for the distance and the surface #7 I think this race sets up for closers and #7 qualifies on that count #1 Won the G1 Norfolk in '07 coming from off the pace. #9 will want to contend for the lead, but unlike Cowboy Cal, had won twice at the distance.
I didn't win, or even come close, to winning The Winter of Our Discontent but did have a positive ROI for the contest.
Time is short and I lost my Fair Grounds analysis, long story, so you'll have to trust me.
Race 6
#8 Honest Man
3-1
9-2
#2 Good and Lucky
4-1
6-1
#1 Secret Getaway
9-2
7-1
#4 Grasshopper
5-1
8-1
Race 7
#7 Demarcation
3-1
9-2
#1 French Beret
7-2
5-1
#2 Jimmy Simms
9-2
7-1
#5 Diamond Tycoon
6-1
9-1
Race 9
#6 Friesen fire
3-1
9-2
#7 Giant Oak
7-2
5-1
#4 It Happened Again
4-1
6-1
#5 Uno Mas
6-1
9-1
And the Strub from Santa Anita where I am going against the favored Cowboy Cal (distance)
#5 Gio Ponti
3-1
9-2
#7 Nownownow
7-2
5-1
#1 Dixie Chatter
4-1
6-1
#9 Wishful Tomcat
6-1
9-1
#5 has demonstrated ability for the distance and the surface #7 I think this race sets up for closers and #7 qualifies on that count #1 Won the G1 Norfolk in '07 coming from off the pace. #9 will want to contend for the lead, but unlike Cowboy Cal, had won twice at the distance.
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