I'm back. And I have some interesting races to talk about today. If my odds line looks peculiar to you, read the previous article as I am trying something novel and different. If it works out, then maybe I too, your humble Chalk Eating Weasel, can join the pantheon of great handicapping authors.
Now for the races.
Colonial Da Hoss Stakes 50k Inner Turf for 3up
Colonial R9
4:39
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Auction Watch
4-1
6-1
#5 Jungle Fighter
7-2
5-1
#7 Baltimore Bob
7-2
5-1
#10 Frisky Thunder
6-1
9-1
#2 Auction Watch comes off a 3 digit (Brisnet) Opt Claiming win is 2 for 2 at the distance and 5 for 9 on the sod. Running style is suited for the course and Sheldon Russell is familiar with grounds so look for a good trip. #5 Jungle Fighter is 2 for 2 over CNL turf. This horse for the course is coming 2nd off layoff and should be a factor if he can regain his previous form. #7 Baltimore Bob may be the best of the group, but when the going gets tough, he always seems to come up short. #10 Frisky Thunder should be able to set the early pace and if he is allowed to relax may go all the way. The only other Quirin "E" horse is just not as fast. FT could steal the race for a price.
Monmouth Boiling Springs Stakes G3 150k Turf 3yo fillies
Monmouth R9
4:50
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#5 Bluegrass Princess
4-1
6-1
#3 My Magic Moment
7-2
5-1
#2 Platinum Girl
7-2
5-1
#1 Mary's Follies
6-1
9-1
#5 BP finally finds a graded event without Gozzip Girl to run in. The McLaughlin trainee has been ITM last 4 out and should find the winner's circle with Eddie Castro this time. #3 MMM is a stakes winner and may be ready to deny BP that first win on the Turf. Thomas Albertrani is 25% winner with +ROI in Graded events and Elvis Trujillo is no stranger to the winner's circle in big races. #2 PG wired the field in May, but has never won at this distance in 3 tries. Will have to contend again with pressure from Sandi's Ready. Should point out that PG beat MMM last out. #1 Has nothing really going for her except that she looks to be the type of improving 3yo that one should be on the look out for in these types of races.
The HANA Race of the week
Arlington 5f turf Clm 35k for 3 up
#8 Maneke
4-1
6-1
#1 Mitigation
7-2
5-1
#6 Boots Are Walking
7-2
5-1
#11 The Nth Degree
6-1
9-1
#8 Won at this level and distance 2 back on the main track and is a proven commodity on Turf and the distance. Drops back after a good effort in an Optional Claiming event. #1 Mitigation drops 1 level after finishing 3/4 lengths behind next out winner. Has the ability to win here. #6 BAW is the horse for course with 3 wins in 7 tries. He could catch the top choice with a little luck. #11 could be the longshot special of the day. 12/1 in the ML the 8yo gelding gets some much needed class relief after running against much better and a nice rider upgrade with E. T. Baird.
Canterbury Minnesota H.B.P.A Mile (Turf) fillies and mares 3 up
Canterbury R8
6:03
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#10 Si Si Mon Amie
4-1
6-1
#6 Mizzcan'tbewrong
7-2
5-1
#1 Quiet Queen
7-2
5-1
#5 Lindsey's Wish
6-1
9-1
#10 Si Si Mon Amie easily looks to be the one to beat here; however I doubt there will be anything approaching the 4/1 ML here. #6 Mizzcan'tbewrong along with Fabulous Babe should be setting the early fraction, but that running style doesn't seem to work well here. #1 Quiet Queen looks to be on the improve lately and has won at this level before could get there if the trend continues. #5 Lindsey's Wish comes out of a 3rd place finish at PRM against similar. Kelly Von Hemel is 24% +ROI going Dirt to Turf.
Prarie Meadows Cornhusker G2 9 furlongs 3 up (doubt I'll be awake for this one)
Prarie Meadows R9
11:17
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 My Pal Charlie
4-1
6-1
#5 Shadowbdancing
7-2
5-1
#6 Wayzata Bay
7-2
5-1
#8 Jonesboro
6-1
9-1
#2 MPC along with Jonesboro, appears to be the class of the field, but the latter has never won at this distance so I'm giving the nod to MPC. #5 Shadowbdancing: going with some local talent for shots at the prize. #5 has had 3 digit Bris Figures last two out while going wire to wire. 3 for 4 at PRM and all 3 are stakes wins, looking to step up here. #6 WB was last years Cornhusker winner and hopes history will repeat after using the Jim Rasmussen Mem. H. as a tune up for the big race. #8 Jonesboro (class of '74 if your interested) is always in the thick of it and I expect nothing less here. But if you look at the 9f races, he always seems to hit the wall at this distance.
That's it for this week. As I said, please check out the previous article. I think a lot of readers may have missed it because the TBA Feed seemed to be hung up for a couple of days. I think you'll find it thought provoking, if nothing else.
Showing posts with label Thoroughbred racing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Thoroughbred racing. Show all posts
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Some Saturday Picks
No time for chit chat. Need to help out with some housework to maintain domestic tranquility before I go to CRC for some live racing later this afternoon. Thought I'd give you some picks to chew on before I leave.
First in line is the HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) the 100k Pretty Jenny Stakes for 3yo Fillies restricted to Illinois breds from Hawthorne Park in Chicago.
I have to admit that I dont really have a good feel for this race so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle and looked for horses making 3yo debut after showing promise as 2yo's. Here are the picks. I will most likely only make a token wager on this one just for the cause.
P# 6th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Miss Fontana
3-1
9-2
#10 Happy Henrietta
7-2
5-1
#3 Tessies Tilbury
4-1
6-1
#9 Cumulonimble
6-1
9-1
The HANA Race of the week and I have to admit that I really don't have a good feel for this matchup of Ill breds, so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle of looking for horses that showed promise as 2 yo's making their 3 yo debut. #2 fits that bill winning her 2 yo debut and a State bred stakes before being put on the shelf in Aug last year. Inez Karlsson gets back on. #10 also fits the profile in winning 2yo debut and a state bred stakes in December, comes back after a 4 month freshening. #3 is one for two and could keep on improving with a Hi % jockey aboard and 2nd place OCn1x effort against non state breds. #9 hasn't won yet, but has been in the money 3 of 3 as a 2yo including 2nd in state restricted race and is making 3yo debut. Brandon Meier made the right decision in coming back to Chicago.
Opening Saturday at Calder Race Course and 4 stakes make the opening weekend card including two Graded stakes. I was disappointed to see they were not running with their 2:30 Friday post times this year. I've really enjoyed leaving work on Fridays and catching the late half of the card. I will miss that a lot. I can still do the simulcast from some other track, but its just not the same as seeing real horses.
The 7th race today is the 1 1/2 Mile (turf) LaPrevoyante Handicap-G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.
P# 7th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Criticism
1-1
3-2
#2 Long Approach
5-1
8-1
#3 Icon Project
6-1
9-1
#4 2 time G3 Marathon winner is definitely the one to beat #2 Hi % turf jockey Desormeaux travels south from Ky to team up with Hi % trainer Johnathan Sheppard, not for nothing. #3 Wolfson comes back to the track he dominates and Trujillo rides at track he dominated 2 years ago. Wolfy always has a shot a Calder
Next is the 1 mile 70 yards Emergency Nurse Stakes-Purse 55k for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
P# 8th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Annabill
6-5
9-5
#7 Eclisse
7-2
5-1
#2 Tiara Di Oro
6-1
9-1
#6 The other Wolfson gets his chance to shine here. Annabill wins at a near 50% clip at CRC is 4 of 9 at the distance, is a stakes winner and comes into the race fresh. #7 Marty Wolfson's horse is the only speed in the race and may be able to steal it on the front end. #2 The 2nd Marty Wolfson entry in the race is lightly raced and showing improvement in its last 3 races.
Race 9 is the 1 Mile (Turf) Miami Mile Handicap G3 for 3 and up.
P# 9th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Rogue Victory
3-1
9-2
#6 Mambo Meister
7-2
5-1
#1 Vanquisher
4-1
6-1
#10 Baron Von Tap
6-1
9-1
I'm expecting that Finallymadeit, Dream Maestro, and Motovato, will scratch out of this race and move to the 10 on dirt where they are also entered, but I have not yet been able to confirm this.#2 Does anyone think Desormeaux is giving up opening Sat. at CD to lose in S. Fla #2 has won 3 of 9 and his running lines look like he's getting ready to pop a big one. #6 is a stakes winner and 1 for three on CRC Turf. Manny Cruz gets back on the Meister. #1 Another tough customer, Stakes winner that is 6 for 17 on the sod with a High % Trainer. #10 may do nothing and may be the upset special of the day. Veteran turf specialist (8yo) with loads of back class has been revived since moving to Ziadie's barn 4 races ago.
And finally the 1 Mile 70 yards Sumter Stakes 55k for 3 and up.
P# 10th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Dream Maestro
3-1
9-2
#1 Hey Byrn
7-2
5-1
#7 Motovato
4-1
6-1
#8 Finallymadeit
6-1
9-1
#6 Finally gets to turn the tables on the 8 in a race where the 8 should face more of a pace challenge from Hal's My Hope and Honey Honey Honey. #1 comes in fresh off a turf effort where it became obvious he didn't belong. The rest should do him good and expect return to January form #7 Elvis and Marty team up again and this is another that has the look of a horse moving forward, expect a big effort here. #8 Negrete keeps putting this one out there every 21 days and this one keeps running; however others in this race may show a greater willingness to challenge this need to leader for the early fractions this time. Still this is a gritty horse that can't be totally discounted.
Note as of this writing the 3 dual entered horses have not scratched from either race. Depending on how the scratches fall out, all of the above for races 9 and 10 could be horse manure.
First in line is the HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) the 100k Pretty Jenny Stakes for 3yo Fillies restricted to Illinois breds from Hawthorne Park in Chicago.
I have to admit that I dont really have a good feel for this race so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle and looked for horses making 3yo debut after showing promise as 2yo's. Here are the picks. I will most likely only make a token wager on this one just for the cause.
P# 6th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Miss Fontana
3-1
9-2
#10 Happy Henrietta
7-2
5-1
#3 Tessies Tilbury
4-1
6-1
#9 Cumulonimble
6-1
9-1
The HANA Race of the week and I have to admit that I really don't have a good feel for this matchup of Ill breds, so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle of looking for horses that showed promise as 2 yo's making their 3 yo debut. #2 fits that bill winning her 2 yo debut and a State bred stakes before being put on the shelf in Aug last year. Inez Karlsson gets back on. #10 also fits the profile in winning 2yo debut and a state bred stakes in December, comes back after a 4 month freshening. #3 is one for two and could keep on improving with a Hi % jockey aboard and 2nd place OCn1x effort against non state breds. #9 hasn't won yet, but has been in the money 3 of 3 as a 2yo including 2nd in state restricted race and is making 3yo debut. Brandon Meier made the right decision in coming back to Chicago.
Opening Saturday at Calder Race Course and 4 stakes make the opening weekend card including two Graded stakes. I was disappointed to see they were not running with their 2:30 Friday post times this year. I've really enjoyed leaving work on Fridays and catching the late half of the card. I will miss that a lot. I can still do the simulcast from some other track, but its just not the same as seeing real horses.
The 7th race today is the 1 1/2 Mile (turf) LaPrevoyante Handicap-G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.
P# 7th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Criticism
1-1
3-2
#2 Long Approach
5-1
8-1
#3 Icon Project
6-1
9-1
#4 2 time G3 Marathon winner is definitely the one to beat #2 Hi % turf jockey Desormeaux travels south from Ky to team up with Hi % trainer Johnathan Sheppard, not for nothing. #3 Wolfson comes back to the track he dominates and Trujillo rides at track he dominated 2 years ago. Wolfy always has a shot a Calder
Next is the 1 mile 70 yards Emergency Nurse Stakes-Purse 55k for Fillies and Mares 3 and up
P# 8th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Annabill
6-5
9-5
#7 Eclisse
7-2
5-1
#2 Tiara Di Oro
6-1
9-1
#6 The other Wolfson gets his chance to shine here. Annabill wins at a near 50% clip at CRC is 4 of 9 at the distance, is a stakes winner and comes into the race fresh. #7 Marty Wolfson's horse is the only speed in the race and may be able to steal it on the front end. #2 The 2nd Marty Wolfson entry in the race is lightly raced and showing improvement in its last 3 races.
Race 9 is the 1 Mile (Turf) Miami Mile Handicap G3 for 3 and up.
P# 9th Race
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Rogue Victory
3-1
9-2
#6 Mambo Meister
7-2
5-1
#1 Vanquisher
4-1
6-1
#10 Baron Von Tap
6-1
9-1
I'm expecting that Finallymadeit, Dream Maestro, and Motovato, will scratch out of this race and move to the 10 on dirt where they are also entered, but I have not yet been able to confirm this.#2 Does anyone think Desormeaux is giving up opening Sat. at CD to lose in S. Fla #2 has won 3 of 9 and his running lines look like he's getting ready to pop a big one. #6 is a stakes winner and 1 for three on CRC Turf. Manny Cruz gets back on the Meister. #1 Another tough customer, Stakes winner that is 6 for 17 on the sod with a High % Trainer. #10 may do nothing and may be the upset special of the day. Veteran turf specialist (8yo) with loads of back class has been revived since moving to Ziadie's barn 4 races ago.
And finally the 1 Mile 70 yards Sumter Stakes 55k for 3 and up.
P# 10th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Dream Maestro
3-1
9-2
#1 Hey Byrn
7-2
5-1
#7 Motovato
4-1
6-1
#8 Finallymadeit
6-1
9-1
#6 Finally gets to turn the tables on the 8 in a race where the 8 should face more of a pace challenge from Hal's My Hope and Honey Honey Honey. #1 comes in fresh off a turf effort where it became obvious he didn't belong. The rest should do him good and expect return to January form #7 Elvis and Marty team up again and this is another that has the look of a horse moving forward, expect a big effort here. #8 Negrete keeps putting this one out there every 21 days and this one keeps running; however others in this race may show a greater willingness to challenge this need to leader for the early fractions this time. Still this is a gritty horse that can't be totally discounted.
Note as of this writing the 3 dual entered horses have not scratched from either race. Depending on how the scratches fall out, all of the above for races 9 and 10 could be horse manure.
Friday, March 27, 2009
Florida Derby Eve
Ahh. I'm sitting on my sofa sipping on a fine small batch Kentucky Bourbon and comtemplating the great racing that is to come tomorrow. The weather today saw some light rain, but probably not any more than the maintenance crew would put on the track any way. Tomorrow is supposed to dry, but then, so was today so we'll just have to wait and see.
Now for some predictions. In tomorrow's fifth race, Nicanor makes his third start. He could not have found a softer spot without entering for a tag. After tomorrow, Nicanor will be a maiden no longer.
Here is the hunch bet of the day. In the sixth race Justenuffhumor starts for trainer Kiaran McLAUGHlin. Of course, Mr. K will likely be in Dubai, so I don't know how good that angle will be tomorrow.
In the G2 Swale stakes This One's For Phil starts on the rail out of the chute. This post position is not certain death, like coming out of the 12 hole at 9 furlongs, but it is still a disadvantage. Besides, something in me just wants to shout to the world that This One's For Phil is a fraud. A claiming horse that got lucky. However, I have to admit that he led a tougher field than this one for half a mile last out, and he has Go Go Garrett Gomez on his back just for good measure. Still, I'm going to pick against him. Big Drama comes in fresh off a 3 month layoff and is 5 for 6 including a G3 win at Delta Downs. In addition, he breaks from the outside; therefore he should not have any trip troubles as they come down the long back stretch and should be able to settle right in.
In the G3 Appleton stakes, I'm thinkin' Bold Start will pull off a minor upset. The 5 year old horse is amazingly consistent, 2 for 4 on grass and Kenneth McPeek is 25% going Dirt to Turf. Toss out Granizo, I won a $10 bet on him at 2-1 last week thanks to the first to cross the wire in the slop being DQ'd. I only played him then because was 6 for 6 on off tracks. Unless it rains tomorrow, this one does not belong. The usual suspects in this race will be Kiss The Kid and Vanquisher and either of these could win here as well. And if you want a bomb pick it might just be Artic Cry turning back from a 9 furlong Allowance win. Julian Leparoux takes the mount and I can't think of anyone I'd rather have on grass than him.
As for the Derby, it is very difficult to separate the 3 main contenders, you know who they are. That's the problem. Everyone knows who they are. The dark horse that is getting little consideration here is Danger To Society. After winning his first two, he threw in a real clunker in the G3 Holy Bull, or did he? He ran a Brisnet Speed figure of 90 which was only 5 points off his 95 point allowance win the race before. Furthermore, he has since moved to the Dutrow barn, and we all know what kind of magic he can work first time out with a horse. Just look at This One's For Phil! I'm not predicting a win for Danger To Society here. However, I will keep him in mind for my exactas and if the price is right...
Good luck to all tomorrow wherever you choose to play. Oh and speaking of choosing to play, HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) has come up with an idea that just may work to show how much influence we, as horseplayers, can have. Every week they are going to pick one race from one track on a week day to play and flood the betting pool for that race. This weeks lucky recipient of this 1 race bonanza is Will Rogers Downs. The race is yet to be selected, but you may find out more about it here. http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2009/03/mayo-its-will-rogers-downs.html
May the Horse be with you.
Now for some predictions. In tomorrow's fifth race, Nicanor makes his third start. He could not have found a softer spot without entering for a tag. After tomorrow, Nicanor will be a maiden no longer.
Here is the hunch bet of the day. In the sixth race Justenuffhumor starts for trainer Kiaran McLAUGHlin. Of course, Mr. K will likely be in Dubai, so I don't know how good that angle will be tomorrow.
In the G2 Swale stakes This One's For Phil starts on the rail out of the chute. This post position is not certain death, like coming out of the 12 hole at 9 furlongs, but it is still a disadvantage. Besides, something in me just wants to shout to the world that This One's For Phil is a fraud. A claiming horse that got lucky. However, I have to admit that he led a tougher field than this one for half a mile last out, and he has Go Go Garrett Gomez on his back just for good measure. Still, I'm going to pick against him. Big Drama comes in fresh off a 3 month layoff and is 5 for 6 including a G3 win at Delta Downs. In addition, he breaks from the outside; therefore he should not have any trip troubles as they come down the long back stretch and should be able to settle right in.
In the G3 Appleton stakes, I'm thinkin' Bold Start will pull off a minor upset. The 5 year old horse is amazingly consistent, 2 for 4 on grass and Kenneth McPeek is 25% going Dirt to Turf. Toss out Granizo, I won a $10 bet on him at 2-1 last week thanks to the first to cross the wire in the slop being DQ'd. I only played him then because was 6 for 6 on off tracks. Unless it rains tomorrow, this one does not belong. The usual suspects in this race will be Kiss The Kid and Vanquisher and either of these could win here as well. And if you want a bomb pick it might just be Artic Cry turning back from a 9 furlong Allowance win. Julian Leparoux takes the mount and I can't think of anyone I'd rather have on grass than him.
As for the Derby, it is very difficult to separate the 3 main contenders, you know who they are. That's the problem. Everyone knows who they are. The dark horse that is getting little consideration here is Danger To Society. After winning his first two, he threw in a real clunker in the G3 Holy Bull, or did he? He ran a Brisnet Speed figure of 90 which was only 5 points off his 95 point allowance win the race before. Furthermore, he has since moved to the Dutrow barn, and we all know what kind of magic he can work first time out with a horse. Just look at This One's For Phil! I'm not predicting a win for Danger To Society here. However, I will keep him in mind for my exactas and if the price is right...
Good luck to all tomorrow wherever you choose to play. Oh and speaking of choosing to play, HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) has come up with an idea that just may work to show how much influence we, as horseplayers, can have. Every week they are going to pick one race from one track on a week day to play and flood the betting pool for that race. This weeks lucky recipient of this 1 race bonanza is Will Rogers Downs. The race is yet to be selected, but you may find out more about it here. http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2009/03/mayo-its-will-rogers-downs.html
May the Horse be with you.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Hialeah to Reopen?
Bloodhorse.com reports that the old Hialeah Park, in beautiful downtown Hialeah, has been granted a quarter horse license and may begin racing quarter horses beginning March 17, 2010. In addition, there is legislation pending in Tallahassee that would allow the track to run thoroughbreds for up to 50% of the meet. Don't get your hopes up there.
The article goes on to report that the track, which has been closed since 2001, is in bad condition with grass growing on the track, and would require, by estimate of the current owner $30 million to renovate for racing.
There are apparently plans to include a simulcast room and card room.
I don't know if the area can support a third track with two that seem to be just hanging on now. Especially with all the other gaming on and off-shore opportunities available. But I'd sure like to see someone give it a go.
Click here for the full story http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/49738/hialeah-okd-for-quarter-horse-racing
The article goes on to report that the track, which has been closed since 2001, is in bad condition with grass growing on the track, and would require, by estimate of the current owner $30 million to renovate for racing.
There are apparently plans to include a simulcast room and card room.
I don't know if the area can support a third track with two that seem to be just hanging on now. Especially with all the other gaming on and off-shore opportunities available. But I'd sure like to see someone give it a go.
Click here for the full story http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/49738/hialeah-okd-for-quarter-horse-racing
Saturday, February 21, 2009
P H picks for Feb. 21
It's another beautiful day for racing in Sunny South Florida at the Hallandale Beach Gargantuan known as Gulfsteam Park Racing and Casino. What? They have a casino here? Anyhow, I know you are all waiting to see what I've come up with this week. Especially after last weeks lowly 1 for 3 showing ( 0 for 2 if you foolishly followed my betting instructions). The betting instructions can be found in last weeks post, so, without further ado, here are the Saturday Public Handicapper.com picks
First up is the Mac Diarmida Stakes G2 for Four Year Olds and Upward from Gulfstream Park
1 and 3/8 miles on the Turf
#6 Always First
3-1
9-2
#12 Pressious Passion
7-2
5-1
#3 Spice Route
4-1
6-1
#5 Quasicobra
6-1
9-1
#6 G3 winner loves distance comes in fresh #12 extreme outside post prevents from favoritism, can still win here #3 Has run very well in G1 distance races at Woodbine #5 With Leparoux on top is just the kind of long shot I love on the grass.
Excuse the brief analysis, I was doing that one late last night. Now, moving on.
Tampa Bay Stakes 150k for Four Year Olds and Upward 1 and 1/16 miles on the Turf.
#7 Furthest Land
3-1
9-2
#3 Classic Campaign
5-2
5-1
#4 Society's Chairman
7-2
5-1
#1 Atoned
5-1
8-1
This week I am again going for the invaders at Tampa Bay. You'd think I'd learn, but I just didn't think that much of the local talent. #7 Top choice is a Michael Maker horse who showed a great closing kick in winning a 75k Optional Claimer last out at Gulfstream. Has won three in a row and makes stakes debut. #3 ships over from the Fair Grounds for Bill Mott drops down out of a 4th place Grade 3 effort and should find the company a little easier here. #4 Just missed in the Ft. Lauderdale to Kiss the Kid and could run good enough here. #1 is the only Graded stakes winner in the field, but the inside post is 0 for 27 so I have down graded Atoned's chances. In addition, Pletcher had to bring his 2nd stringer, DeCarlo, over for this race as J.R. chose to stay at Gulfstream. What does that tell you?
Then up to Florence, Ky for the 50k Valdale Stakes for Three Year Old Fillies to be contested at a mile over whatever that fake stuff is called they use there.
#10 Spoilher
3-1
9-2
#3 Tacky Cat
7-2
5-1
#6 Emma Darling
4-1
6-1
#7 Karacuda
6-1
9-1
Many of these horse faced each other in the Cincinnati Trophy, but I'm going to the speed horse in the race as the Spoilher. #10 crushed on non-conditioned Allowance field last out at the distance and is 2 for 3 over the course. #3 winner of the C. T. didn't wait to break her maiden before winning C.T. and should be in a good position for a repeat performance. #6 Finished 3rd in C.T. after going 6 wide. The distance should be a better fit here. Michael Maker is a 30% trainer and is an automatic bet in almost every training category. #7 Has lost to the 3 and 6 before, but has run to par so would not completely surprise if she turned the tables here.
Last, but certainly never least, The Valentine Dancer Handicap 100k for California Bred Fillies and Mares 4 Years Old and Upward to be contested at 1 Mile on the Turf.
#2 Christiana's Heat
5-2
4-1
#7 Tiz A Blend
4-1
6-1
#3 Bel Air Sizzle
5-1
8-1
#11 Gambler's Justice
6-1
9-1
Just a note about this race if you've been following the Jockey's series on Animal Planet. It will be interesting to see if Aaron Gryder can stay on One Bad Kitty in the gate today. However the #2 horse has been showing excellent recent form and should be the one to beat . #7 Don't be fooled by the two recent outings by this one as she returns to her favored surface, the projected improvement should not be a surprise. #3 Disappointed on Sunshine Million day, but a return to home and a positive jockey change to Go Go Gomez may be the tonic this one needs #11 This one seems to perk up for the state bred races and the outside post could be a help. Still only 2nd time on grass and coming off a 2 month layoff so some discretion is in order here.
Well that's all for this time. I'm and hour and 40 minutes from leaving the starting gate for GP myself. Here's hoping I did better than last week. And if you want a really hot tip, just bet on the horses I didn't mention and you'll probably do alright.
First up is the Mac Diarmida Stakes G2 for Four Year Olds and Upward from Gulfstream Park
1 and 3/8 miles on the Turf
#6 Always First
3-1
9-2
#12 Pressious Passion
7-2
5-1
#3 Spice Route
4-1
6-1
#5 Quasicobra
6-1
9-1
#6 G3 winner loves distance comes in fresh #12 extreme outside post prevents from favoritism, can still win here #3 Has run very well in G1 distance races at Woodbine #5 With Leparoux on top is just the kind of long shot I love on the grass.
Excuse the brief analysis, I was doing that one late last night. Now, moving on.
Tampa Bay Stakes 150k for Four Year Olds and Upward 1 and 1/16 miles on the Turf.
#7 Furthest Land
3-1
9-2
#3 Classic Campaign
5-2
5-1
#4 Society's Chairman
7-2
5-1
#1 Atoned
5-1
8-1
This week I am again going for the invaders at Tampa Bay. You'd think I'd learn, but I just didn't think that much of the local talent. #7 Top choice is a Michael Maker horse who showed a great closing kick in winning a 75k Optional Claimer last out at Gulfstream. Has won three in a row and makes stakes debut. #3 ships over from the Fair Grounds for Bill Mott drops down out of a 4th place Grade 3 effort and should find the company a little easier here. #4 Just missed in the Ft. Lauderdale to Kiss the Kid and could run good enough here. #1 is the only Graded stakes winner in the field, but the inside post is 0 for 27 so I have down graded Atoned's chances. In addition, Pletcher had to bring his 2nd stringer, DeCarlo, over for this race as J.R. chose to stay at Gulfstream. What does that tell you?
Then up to Florence, Ky for the 50k Valdale Stakes for Three Year Old Fillies to be contested at a mile over whatever that fake stuff is called they use there.
#10 Spoilher
3-1
9-2
#3 Tacky Cat
7-2
5-1
#6 Emma Darling
4-1
6-1
#7 Karacuda
6-1
9-1
Many of these horse faced each other in the Cincinnati Trophy, but I'm going to the speed horse in the race as the Spoilher. #10 crushed on non-conditioned Allowance field last out at the distance and is 2 for 3 over the course. #3 winner of the C. T. didn't wait to break her maiden before winning C.T. and should be in a good position for a repeat performance. #6 Finished 3rd in C.T. after going 6 wide. The distance should be a better fit here. Michael Maker is a 30% trainer and is an automatic bet in almost every training category. #7 Has lost to the 3 and 6 before, but has run to par so would not completely surprise if she turned the tables here.
Last, but certainly never least, The Valentine Dancer Handicap 100k for California Bred Fillies and Mares 4 Years Old and Upward to be contested at 1 Mile on the Turf.
#2 Christiana's Heat
5-2
4-1
#7 Tiz A Blend
4-1
6-1
#3 Bel Air Sizzle
5-1
8-1
#11 Gambler's Justice
6-1
9-1
Just a note about this race if you've been following the Jockey's series on Animal Planet. It will be interesting to see if Aaron Gryder can stay on One Bad Kitty in the gate today. However the #2 horse has been showing excellent recent form and should be the one to beat . #7 Don't be fooled by the two recent outings by this one as she returns to her favored surface, the projected improvement should not be a surprise. #3 Disappointed on Sunshine Million day, but a return to home and a positive jockey change to Go Go Gomez may be the tonic this one needs #11 This one seems to perk up for the state bred races and the outside post could be a help. Still only 2nd time on grass and coming off a 2 month layoff so some discretion is in order here.
Well that's all for this time. I'm and hour and 40 minutes from leaving the starting gate for GP myself. Here's hoping I did better than last week. And if you want a really hot tip, just bet on the horses I didn't mention and you'll probably do alright.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Book Review!!!
Since I've finished with the Thursday past performances for Fair Grounds and Golden Gate Fields and the Saturday Gulfstream Park PP's are not yet available, I have a little time for another adventure into the world of book reviews.
But first, you will notice a little addition on the left side of the page. I occasionally offer opinions on the outcome of races and decided, in the interest of full disclosure, you the reader should know how much my opinion is worth.
Now, if I may toot my own horn, I told you I love to play the Fair Grounds and came through with two winners out of three races. Out at Santa Anita, I didn't fare so well. I, like many others I've come to learn, thought I could beat Cowboy Cal. Well, I didn't, so sue me. No wait a minute, don't do that!
Todd Pletcher is one of the more confounding big name trainers for me. Don't get me wrong, I love Todd. He even posed for my wife at Gulfstream a couple of weeks ago. That picture is in a previous edition. However, it seems I'm always on the wrong side of the bet when it comes to Mr. Pletcher. If I try to beat him, he wins. If I jump on his band wagon, he's up the track and out of the money. Do you have anyone like that? Of course you do.
Now on to the review.
Today I take a critical look at "The Tuttle Way: Applied Methodologies On "How To" Interpret The Racing Form From A Winning Horseplayer" by Joseph J. Tuttle
In the beginning of the book, Mr. Tuttle seeks to establish is bona fides as a horseman by informing us his father, Seymour Tuttle, was involved in the training of horses. Naturally, I promptly did a Google search which came up empty. It's not that I can't take Mr. Tuttle's word for it, but his credibility would be bolstered if I could have found some reference to a Seymour Tuttle within, say the first 5 or 6 pages of 19,900 results. No, I did not go through all 19,900 results, but you may feel free to, if you must.
The 172 page paper-back consists of mostly large type face, which is easy on the eyes. It's also easy on a writer that really doesn't have much to say.
He opens with a brief history of the Daily Racing Form and dwells a lot on the unreliability of Beyer's figures before finally admitting that he does use them. This in itself is not so bad. I agree that Beyer's figures sort of need to be taken in context of class and pace.
Then we come to something I find particularly off-putting as Mr. Tuttle makes the claim that 81% of all races are won by horses that have had 29 to 119 days off. Is this really true? It may well be, but I'm a scientist by profession, so my first question is "What is the source of this data and how was it derived?" Alas there is no answer to this query. The reader is supposed to simply accept this number on faith. He does allow for exceptions such as the Preakness about which he writes,” You can count the number of Preakness winners on one hand, which won that race after skipping the Kentucky Derby, over the past twenty-five years." Note the excessive use of commas in that sentence is the writers.
He tells us a main characteristic of a horse with "class" is the ability to switch leads and that 90% of all horses switch leads instinctively. I know. A wild statistic thrown about with no validation. However, the real issue is, if 90% of all horses do this instinctively, does this mean that 90% of all horses are classy? That's sort of like saying 90% of all people are extraordinary. If 90% of all people are extraordinary, then that is the norm. Rather ordinary I'd say.
Now this is where the writer really loses me as we move into what I refer to as the,"Old wives tales." section of the book. And we're only on page 22. Watch out for those horses with 4 white socks as they are more likely to turn up lame. More prevalent among younger horses according to the author. Horses with prominent,"Blazes and Stars" on their faces will show or have a lot of front-running speed. Mr. Tuttle tells us that many prominent horseman hold to this belief; however, he neglects to name names. I'll have to ask Mr. Pletcher about this the next time I see him at Gulfstream. Oh yeah, I should add this, and you get this for free, always bet grey horses on grey days. That's a sure winning angle...Puhleeze.
Ahem, excuse my sarcasm.
Now in a portion of the book headed as (The Comment Line), Mr. Tuttle says he puts high value on the comment line because it tells you much about the company the horse has been keeping. Then, tangentially, moves onto video tape analysis and some sort of esoteric calculation involving how many horses a horse passes on average per race. I'm telling you, the book is full these rambling sort of right angle turns with no rhyme or reason.
I asked my wife, a natural handicapper in her own right (if only we could merge my analytical nature with her intuitive sense of body language of both people and horses, we'd be unstoppable), to read the 4 page section on "The Comment Line" and tell me what she learned about "The Comment Line". "Nothing", was her answer.
Chapter 3
We learn about his "universal" number, 20. We learn how to use this magical universal number to make the flawed DRF speed figure and track variant better through the use of a seemingly arbitrary constant. Why not seven? Much luckier than 20. Or three? Holy Trinity and all that. I guess Pi would be out of the question since it’s a non-repeating number, how would we know where to stop? Then we take this number and add it to the Beyer's number and divide the sum by 2 and, voila!, we have a new and improved speed figure. I think not.
Enough of this. The remainder of the book is full of similar nonsense and non-validated percentages and general arbitrariness all written in a very disorganized manner. I cannot bear to go on. Suffice it to say I give Mr. Tuttle's effort a firm up the track and out of the money rating. Save your money and pass this book.
I buy these books because I can't help myself. Use my addiction to your benefit and stay as far away from this book.
FYI. In the Jan/Feb issue of the Horseplayer Magazine there is a nice article by Prentice Manetter on playing the pick four. Since I sort of panned his book in my last review, I thought I'd at least give credit where credit is due.
But first, you will notice a little addition on the left side of the page. I occasionally offer opinions on the outcome of races and decided, in the interest of full disclosure, you the reader should know how much my opinion is worth.
Now, if I may toot my own horn, I told you I love to play the Fair Grounds and came through with two winners out of three races. Out at Santa Anita, I didn't fare so well. I, like many others I've come to learn, thought I could beat Cowboy Cal. Well, I didn't, so sue me. No wait a minute, don't do that!
Todd Pletcher is one of the more confounding big name trainers for me. Don't get me wrong, I love Todd. He even posed for my wife at Gulfstream a couple of weeks ago. That picture is in a previous edition. However, it seems I'm always on the wrong side of the bet when it comes to Mr. Pletcher. If I try to beat him, he wins. If I jump on his band wagon, he's up the track and out of the money. Do you have anyone like that? Of course you do.
Now on to the review.
Today I take a critical look at "The Tuttle Way: Applied Methodologies On "How To" Interpret The Racing Form From A Winning Horseplayer" by Joseph J. Tuttle
In the beginning of the book, Mr. Tuttle seeks to establish is bona fides as a horseman by informing us his father, Seymour Tuttle, was involved in the training of horses. Naturally, I promptly did a Google search which came up empty. It's not that I can't take Mr. Tuttle's word for it, but his credibility would be bolstered if I could have found some reference to a Seymour Tuttle within, say the first 5 or 6 pages of 19,900 results. No, I did not go through all 19,900 results, but you may feel free to, if you must.
The 172 page paper-back consists of mostly large type face, which is easy on the eyes. It's also easy on a writer that really doesn't have much to say.
He opens with a brief history of the Daily Racing Form and dwells a lot on the unreliability of Beyer's figures before finally admitting that he does use them. This in itself is not so bad. I agree that Beyer's figures sort of need to be taken in context of class and pace.
Then we come to something I find particularly off-putting as Mr. Tuttle makes the claim that 81% of all races are won by horses that have had 29 to 119 days off. Is this really true? It may well be, but I'm a scientist by profession, so my first question is "What is the source of this data and how was it derived?" Alas there is no answer to this query. The reader is supposed to simply accept this number on faith. He does allow for exceptions such as the Preakness about which he writes,” You can count the number of Preakness winners on one hand, which won that race after skipping the Kentucky Derby, over the past twenty-five years." Note the excessive use of commas in that sentence is the writers.
He tells us a main characteristic of a horse with "class" is the ability to switch leads and that 90% of all horses switch leads instinctively. I know. A wild statistic thrown about with no validation. However, the real issue is, if 90% of all horses do this instinctively, does this mean that 90% of all horses are classy? That's sort of like saying 90% of all people are extraordinary. If 90% of all people are extraordinary, then that is the norm. Rather ordinary I'd say.
Now this is where the writer really loses me as we move into what I refer to as the,"Old wives tales." section of the book. And we're only on page 22. Watch out for those horses with 4 white socks as they are more likely to turn up lame. More prevalent among younger horses according to the author. Horses with prominent,"Blazes and Stars" on their faces will show or have a lot of front-running speed. Mr. Tuttle tells us that many prominent horseman hold to this belief; however, he neglects to name names. I'll have to ask Mr. Pletcher about this the next time I see him at Gulfstream. Oh yeah, I should add this, and you get this for free, always bet grey horses on grey days. That's a sure winning angle...Puhleeze.
Ahem, excuse my sarcasm.
Now in a portion of the book headed as (The Comment Line), Mr. Tuttle says he puts high value on the comment line because it tells you much about the company the horse has been keeping. Then, tangentially, moves onto video tape analysis and some sort of esoteric calculation involving how many horses a horse passes on average per race. I'm telling you, the book is full these rambling sort of right angle turns with no rhyme or reason.
I asked my wife, a natural handicapper in her own right (if only we could merge my analytical nature with her intuitive sense of body language of both people and horses, we'd be unstoppable), to read the 4 page section on "The Comment Line" and tell me what she learned about "The Comment Line". "Nothing", was her answer.
Chapter 3
We learn about his "universal" number, 20. We learn how to use this magical universal number to make the flawed DRF speed figure and track variant better through the use of a seemingly arbitrary constant. Why not seven? Much luckier than 20. Or three? Holy Trinity and all that. I guess Pi would be out of the question since it’s a non-repeating number, how would we know where to stop? Then we take this number and add it to the Beyer's number and divide the sum by 2 and, voila!, we have a new and improved speed figure. I think not.
Enough of this. The remainder of the book is full of similar nonsense and non-validated percentages and general arbitrariness all written in a very disorganized manner. I cannot bear to go on. Suffice it to say I give Mr. Tuttle's effort a firm up the track and out of the money rating. Save your money and pass this book.
I buy these books because I can't help myself. Use my addiction to your benefit and stay as far away from this book.
FYI. In the Jan/Feb issue of the Horseplayer Magazine there is a nice article by Prentice Manetter on playing the pick four. Since I sort of panned his book in my last review, I thought I'd at least give credit where credit is due.
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