Florida Derby Eve

Ahh. I'm sitting on my sofa sipping on a fine small batch Kentucky Bourbon and comtemplating the great racing that is to come tomorrow. The weather today saw some light rain, but probably not any more than the maintenance crew would put on the track any way. Tomorrow is supposed to dry, but then, so was today so we'll just have to wait and see.

Now for some predictions. In tomorrow's fifth race, Nicanor makes his third start. He could not have found a softer spot without entering for a tag. After tomorrow, Nicanor will be a maiden no longer.

Here is the hunch bet of the day. In the sixth race Justenuffhumor starts for trainer Kiaran McLAUGHlin. Of course, Mr. K will likely be in Dubai, so I don't know how good that angle will be tomorrow.

In the G2 Swale stakes This One's For Phil starts on the rail out of the chute. This post position is not certain death, like coming out of the 12 hole at 9 furlongs, but it is still a disadvantage. Besides, something in me just wants to shout to the world that This One's For Phil is a fraud. A claiming horse that got lucky. However, I have to admit that he led a tougher field than this one for half a mile last out, and he has Go Go Garrett Gomez on his back just for good measure. Still, I'm going to pick against him. Big Drama comes in fresh off a 3 month layoff and is 5 for 6 including a G3 win at Delta Downs. In addition, he breaks from the outside; therefore he should not have any trip troubles as they come down the long back stretch and should be able to settle right in.

In the G3 Appleton stakes, I'm thinkin' Bold Start will pull off a minor upset. The 5 year old horse is amazingly consistent, 2 for 4 on grass and Kenneth McPeek is 25% going Dirt to Turf. Toss out Granizo, I won a $10 bet on him at 2-1 last week thanks to the first to cross the wire in the slop being DQ'd. I only played him then because was 6 for 6 on off tracks. Unless it rains tomorrow, this one does not belong. The usual suspects in this race will be Kiss The Kid and Vanquisher and either of these could win here as well. And if you want a bomb pick it might just be Artic Cry turning back from a 9 furlong Allowance win. Julian Leparoux takes the mount and I can't think of anyone I'd rather have on grass than him.

As for the Derby, it is very difficult to separate the 3 main contenders, you know who they are. That's the problem. Everyone knows who they are. The dark horse that is getting little consideration here is Danger To Society. After winning his first two, he threw in a real clunker in the G3 Holy Bull, or did he? He ran a Brisnet Speed figure of 90 which was only 5 points off his 95 point allowance win the race before. Furthermore, he has since moved to the Dutrow barn, and we all know what kind of magic he can work first time out with a horse. Just look at This One's For Phil! I'm not predicting a win for Danger To Society here. However, I will keep him in mind for my exactas and if the price is right...

Good luck to all tomorrow wherever you choose to play. Oh and speaking of choosing to play, HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) has come up with an idea that just may work to show how much influence we, as horseplayers, can have. Every week they are going to pick one race from one track on a week day to play and flood the betting pool for that race. This weeks lucky recipient of this 1 race bonanza is Will Rogers Downs. The race is yet to be selected, but you may find out more about it here. http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2009/03/mayo-its-will-rogers-downs.html

May the Horse be with you.

Barbaro's Brother

Barbaro's full brother, Nicanor makes his racing debut at Gulfstream Park today in the 8th race of the day. I'll be there and give you a full report with pictures and all after the race. Nicanor is trained by Michael Matz and will be ridden by Edgar Prado.

Today is the last day of the Public handicappers Winter of our Discontent contest. Two of the races are at GP, the G3 Holy Bull and the G1 Donn Handicap. I didn't have time to do the other two races this week, but here is my analysis of the two big races at GP today.

G3 Holy Bull Stakes


#2 Danger To Society
3-1
9-2
#10 West Side Bernie
4-1
6-1
#11 Beethoven
4-1
6-1
#8 Idol Maker
6-1
9-1
#2 Impressive Allowance winner gets favorable post draw. #10 2yo G3 winner will be hampered by outside post position #11 Another 2yo G2 winner will be hampered by the extreme outside post position. #8 Most impressive of the rest with Pletcher/Velasquez combo, but still has to deal with pp8. Outside post positions at 9 furlongs are very difficult from 8 out.

G1 Donn Handicap


#2 Albertus Maximus
8-5
5-2
#10 Einstein
6-1
9-1
#3 Anak Nakai
6-1
9-1
#7 Arson Squad
6-1
9-1

#2 Along with Einstein, clearly the best but gets the luck of the PP draw. Outside post diminishes the chances of a great horse and Pitts is only 5% off layoff #3 Gets much improved post from the Hal's Hope race and should look better. #7 G2 winner is 3 for 5 at the distance. Dutrow is 25% off layoff.

I'll see you later tonight or tomorrow with some pictures of Barbaro's baby brother