Florida Derby Eve

Ahh. I'm sitting on my sofa sipping on a fine small batch Kentucky Bourbon and comtemplating the great racing that is to come tomorrow. The weather today saw some light rain, but probably not any more than the maintenance crew would put on the track any way. Tomorrow is supposed to dry, but then, so was today so we'll just have to wait and see.

Now for some predictions. In tomorrow's fifth race, Nicanor makes his third start. He could not have found a softer spot without entering for a tag. After tomorrow, Nicanor will be a maiden no longer.

Here is the hunch bet of the day. In the sixth race Justenuffhumor starts for trainer Kiaran McLAUGHlin. Of course, Mr. K will likely be in Dubai, so I don't know how good that angle will be tomorrow.

In the G2 Swale stakes This One's For Phil starts on the rail out of the chute. This post position is not certain death, like coming out of the 12 hole at 9 furlongs, but it is still a disadvantage. Besides, something in me just wants to shout to the world that This One's For Phil is a fraud. A claiming horse that got lucky. However, I have to admit that he led a tougher field than this one for half a mile last out, and he has Go Go Garrett Gomez on his back just for good measure. Still, I'm going to pick against him. Big Drama comes in fresh off a 3 month layoff and is 5 for 6 including a G3 win at Delta Downs. In addition, he breaks from the outside; therefore he should not have any trip troubles as they come down the long back stretch and should be able to settle right in.

In the G3 Appleton stakes, I'm thinkin' Bold Start will pull off a minor upset. The 5 year old horse is amazingly consistent, 2 for 4 on grass and Kenneth McPeek is 25% going Dirt to Turf. Toss out Granizo, I won a $10 bet on him at 2-1 last week thanks to the first to cross the wire in the slop being DQ'd. I only played him then because was 6 for 6 on off tracks. Unless it rains tomorrow, this one does not belong. The usual suspects in this race will be Kiss The Kid and Vanquisher and either of these could win here as well. And if you want a bomb pick it might just be Artic Cry turning back from a 9 furlong Allowance win. Julian Leparoux takes the mount and I can't think of anyone I'd rather have on grass than him.

As for the Derby, it is very difficult to separate the 3 main contenders, you know who they are. That's the problem. Everyone knows who they are. The dark horse that is getting little consideration here is Danger To Society. After winning his first two, he threw in a real clunker in the G3 Holy Bull, or did he? He ran a Brisnet Speed figure of 90 which was only 5 points off his 95 point allowance win the race before. Furthermore, he has since moved to the Dutrow barn, and we all know what kind of magic he can work first time out with a horse. Just look at This One's For Phil! I'm not predicting a win for Danger To Society here. However, I will keep him in mind for my exactas and if the price is right...

Good luck to all tomorrow wherever you choose to play. Oh and speaking of choosing to play, HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) has come up with an idea that just may work to show how much influence we, as horseplayers, can have. Every week they are going to pick one race from one track on a week day to play and flood the betting pool for that race. This weeks lucky recipient of this 1 race bonanza is Will Rogers Downs. The race is yet to be selected, but you may find out more about it here. http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2009/03/mayo-its-will-rogers-downs.html

May the Horse be with you.

Nicanor

Nicanor, the brother of Barbaro, entered the walking ring at Gulfstream Park yesterday to a mild round of applause from the people gathered around the area. Despite the runnings of the Grade 3 Holy Bull possibly the first legitimate step for east coast 3 year olds on the road to the Kentucky Derby, and the G1 Donn Handicap featuring Albertus Maximus and the great Einstein, it was this, as of yet unaccomplished 3 year old maiden that many in the crowd came to see. I make this judgement based on how short the betting lines were for the feature 9th race after Nicanor had done his thing. Funny thing is, I didn't even realize Barbaro's brother was running until the night before when someone had told me.

I thought Nicanor looked to be in good condition, as far as this born and bred city-boy can tell about horses. I heard some people remark about how small he was; however, he didn't strike me as being particularly undersized.

At the first showing of the morning line, I was surprised to see him at 4-5. However, by post time the odds had floated up to a still unrealistic 5-2.

Nicanor was well behaved in the walking ring and has obviously been schooled before this race and had an idea of what to expect. Nicanor was a little fractious in the post parade, but nothing to bad for a first trip in a real race, just enough to show that he is still a little green.

By now, I'm sure you know the story how the race went. Not totally unexpected for a first timer. Even Michael Matz said in a pre-race interview that he felt Nicanor would need a trip around the track before getting serious about winning (I am paraphrasing and interpreting here). I have found that, for big races where trainers are actually interviewed before the race, you can tell alot about a horses chances by how the trainer speaks of him before the race.

Nicanor had trouble at the gate, made a nice run down the backstretch to, at least, make contact with the lead pack and then faded to be 10 of 12. I think his baskstretch move showed he has some potential, but we'll have to wait and see if this is the return of Barbaro.

Here are some pictures from the event.

Walking to the Paddock

Entering the Walking Ring

Taking a few laps

Peeking from behind the palm tree

Post Parade

He at least looks the part.

At the finish line

Time to dismount

Look's good with that Wind-Blown hair

Back to the Barn