Florida Derby Eve

Ahh. I'm sitting on my sofa sipping on a fine small batch Kentucky Bourbon and comtemplating the great racing that is to come tomorrow. The weather today saw some light rain, but probably not any more than the maintenance crew would put on the track any way. Tomorrow is supposed to dry, but then, so was today so we'll just have to wait and see.

Now for some predictions. In tomorrow's fifth race, Nicanor makes his third start. He could not have found a softer spot without entering for a tag. After tomorrow, Nicanor will be a maiden no longer.

Here is the hunch bet of the day. In the sixth race Justenuffhumor starts for trainer Kiaran McLAUGHlin. Of course, Mr. K will likely be in Dubai, so I don't know how good that angle will be tomorrow.

In the G2 Swale stakes This One's For Phil starts on the rail out of the chute. This post position is not certain death, like coming out of the 12 hole at 9 furlongs, but it is still a disadvantage. Besides, something in me just wants to shout to the world that This One's For Phil is a fraud. A claiming horse that got lucky. However, I have to admit that he led a tougher field than this one for half a mile last out, and he has Go Go Garrett Gomez on his back just for good measure. Still, I'm going to pick against him. Big Drama comes in fresh off a 3 month layoff and is 5 for 6 including a G3 win at Delta Downs. In addition, he breaks from the outside; therefore he should not have any trip troubles as they come down the long back stretch and should be able to settle right in.

In the G3 Appleton stakes, I'm thinkin' Bold Start will pull off a minor upset. The 5 year old horse is amazingly consistent, 2 for 4 on grass and Kenneth McPeek is 25% going Dirt to Turf. Toss out Granizo, I won a $10 bet on him at 2-1 last week thanks to the first to cross the wire in the slop being DQ'd. I only played him then because was 6 for 6 on off tracks. Unless it rains tomorrow, this one does not belong. The usual suspects in this race will be Kiss The Kid and Vanquisher and either of these could win here as well. And if you want a bomb pick it might just be Artic Cry turning back from a 9 furlong Allowance win. Julian Leparoux takes the mount and I can't think of anyone I'd rather have on grass than him.

As for the Derby, it is very difficult to separate the 3 main contenders, you know who they are. That's the problem. Everyone knows who they are. The dark horse that is getting little consideration here is Danger To Society. After winning his first two, he threw in a real clunker in the G3 Holy Bull, or did he? He ran a Brisnet Speed figure of 90 which was only 5 points off his 95 point allowance win the race before. Furthermore, he has since moved to the Dutrow barn, and we all know what kind of magic he can work first time out with a horse. Just look at This One's For Phil! I'm not predicting a win for Danger To Society here. However, I will keep him in mind for my exactas and if the price is right...

Good luck to all tomorrow wherever you choose to play. Oh and speaking of choosing to play, HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) has come up with an idea that just may work to show how much influence we, as horseplayers, can have. Every week they are going to pick one race from one track on a week day to play and flood the betting pool for that race. This weeks lucky recipient of this 1 race bonanza is Will Rogers Downs. The race is yet to be selected, but you may find out more about it here. http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2009/03/mayo-its-will-rogers-downs.html

May the Horse be with you.

Florida Derby Week

The Florida Derby is Saturday and the weather is expected to windy but dry and maybe a little on the warm side. I suppose it will be no surprise to reveal that most of the attention in the 9 horse field will be on Quality Road, Theregoesjojo, and Dunkirk. Pletcher has also entered as an uncoupled entry the winless in one attempt Europe. Doubtless Europe is there to be offered as the sacrificial horse to ensure the late running Dunkirk has an honest pace to run at.

In case you're wondering, Dunkirk may need the help of a rabbit if the track runs like it did today. I've been wondering how all the rain we had last week would effect the course. In general the track has been favoring speed, but after entering the times and beaten lengths in my track profile, I'm surprised the Hallandale Beach Police weren't out by the quarter pole with a radar gun writing tickets. We'll see if the speed bias continues until Saturday.

Speaking of bias, the ongoing saga of J. J. Tuttle continues. He sent me an E-Mail last week to boast that my review of his book was going to be taken down and so it was. After I vigorously protested this move to Amazon threatening to rain down upon them all my blogging and racing connections, they saw fit to reinstate my review.

I don't think I've been unfair to Mr. Tuttle. In fact, in the interest of fairness, here's an update on the long shot-short field angle. To date at the Gulfstream meet there have been 121 races meeting the criteria of 7 or fewer horses including one on Saturday won by the 4/5 longshot Nistle's Crunch. Tee hee. That last one was a two horse match race due to scratches caused by the weather. The favored It's Never Too Late was 1/2.

Of those 121 races 7 have been won by the longest shot in the field. For the mathematically impaired, that's a 5.8% hit rate. If you have bet two dollars on the longest shot in the field in every one of these qualifying races you would be ahead $107.60 with an ROI of $0.46. In addition your average winning odds would be 28/1 even with the 4/5 long shot. There, now how much fairer can I be than to report favorably on an angle given me by the author of a book I panned, and still do.

That's all for now