Twas the day before the cup,
and all through the house
the Weasel was searching
for some picks to serve up.
As promised, I have returned to you on the eve of the Breeders' Cup and am prepared to give you my selections for this weekends championship races.
One thing is for sure, there is no shortage of opinions on these races. If you are interested in a consensus of Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance choices then follow this link http://www.tbablogs.com/BCPicks.php .
Due to the sheer number of races, commentary will be minimal to non-existant. If you want reasons, there are plenty willing to offer reasons for their opinions.
As a reminder, since I haven't mentioned this in a while, the top pick will not necessarily be the one to play. We want to play overlays. Many times this will mean playing against the top pick. I have provided my own odds levels for each selection. The first odds are what I consider to be fair odds. The second set will be the minimum odds you need to play the selection.
Friday's Races
The Breeders' Cup Marathon
#6 Mastery : 2/1---3/1
#5 Father Time: 9/2---7/1
#3 Nite Light: 5/1---8/1
#4 Cloudy's Knight: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
#10 Tapitsfly: 3/1---9/2
#7 House of Grace: 7/2---5/1
#1 Potosina: 9/2---7/1
#4 Rose Catherine 5/1---8/1
The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
#3 Blind Luck: 2/1---3/1
#10 Negligee: 9/2---7/1
#7 Devil May Care: 5/1---8/1
#8 She Be Wild: 6/1---9/1
The Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf
#2 Forever Together: 3/1---9/2
#4 Magical Fantasy: 7/2---5/1
#6 Midday: 9/2---7/1
#3 Rutherienne: 5/1---8/1
The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
#7 Informed Decision: 5/2---4/1
#9 Ventura: 3/1---9/2
#2 Sara Louise: 6/1---9/1
#8 Seventh Street: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic
#7 Music Note: 2/1---3/1
#1 Careless Jewel: 2/1---3/1
#2 Life Is Sweet: 6/1---9/1
Saturday's Races
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
#4 Pounced: 2/1---3/1
#3 Codoy: 9/2---7/1
#11 Interactif: 5/1---8/1
#10 Becky's Kitten: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
#7 Gotta Have Her: 3/1---9/2
#6 Cannonball: 7/2---5/1
#3 California Flag: 9/2---7/1
#10 Canadian Ballet: 5/1---8/1
The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint
#8 Captain Candyman Can: 7/2---5/1
#1 Zensational: 7/2---5/1
#3 Fatal Bullet: 9/2---7/1
#5 Gayego: 9/2--- 7/1
The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile
#6 Pulsion: 3/1---9/2
#4 Noble's Promise: 7/2---5/1
#8 Esdendereya: 9/2---7/1
#9 Aikenite: 6/1---9/1
The TVG Breeders' Cup Mile
#4 Delegator: 2/1---3/1
#1 Court Vision: 9/2---7/1
#3 Cowboy Cal: 5/1---7/1
#2 Whatsthescript: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
#1 Mastercraftman: 2/1---3/1
#4 Bullsbay: 9/2---7/1
#2 Furthest Land: 5/1---8/1
#5 Neko Bay: 6/1---9/1
The Emirate Airlines Breeders' Cup Turf
#6 Presious Passion: 3/1---9/2
#2 Conduit: 7/2---5/1
#5 Dar Re Mi: 9/2---7/1
#7 Spanish Moon: 5/1---8/1
The Breeders' Cup Classic
#2 Colonel John: 3/1---9/2
#8 Einstein: 7/2---5/1
#4 Zenyatta: 4/1---6/1
#7 Gio Ponti: 6/1---9/1
Hey! Check out my full analysis of Saturday's race 10 from Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. Also you will find a brief analysis of the Ladies Classic and the Classic. Note, I change my mind on the Classic after I had sent in my picks to Case the Race. I have heard really good things about Rip Van Winkle. Then I hear is very washed out after an easy gallop at Santa Anita and has a chronic foot problem to boot. I don't know how the surface change will affect his foot. I will take a good look at him in the post parade, at least as good as I am able. If I like what I see, I may change my mind again.
Good Luck
Showing posts with label Conduit. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Conduit. Show all posts
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Florida Derby Week
The Florida Derby is Saturday and the weather is expected to windy but dry and maybe a little on the warm side. I suppose it will be no surprise to reveal that most of the attention in the 9 horse field will be on Quality Road, Theregoesjojo, and Dunkirk. Pletcher has also entered as an uncoupled entry the winless in one attempt Europe. Doubtless Europe is there to be offered as the sacrificial horse to ensure the late running Dunkirk has an honest pace to run at.
In case you're wondering, Dunkirk may need the help of a rabbit if the track runs like it did today. I've been wondering how all the rain we had last week would effect the course. In general the track has been favoring speed, but after entering the times and beaten lengths in my track profile, I'm surprised the Hallandale Beach Police weren't out by the quarter pole with a radar gun writing tickets. We'll see if the speed bias continues until Saturday.
Speaking of bias, the ongoing saga of J. J. Tuttle continues. He sent me an E-Mail last week to boast that my review of his book was going to be taken down and so it was. After I vigorously protested this move to Amazon threatening to rain down upon them all my blogging and racing connections, they saw fit to reinstate my review.
I don't think I've been unfair to Mr. Tuttle. In fact, in the interest of fairness, here's an update on the long shot-short field angle. To date at the Gulfstream meet there have been 121 races meeting the criteria of 7 or fewer horses including one on Saturday won by the 4/5 longshot Nistle's Crunch. Tee hee. That last one was a two horse match race due to scratches caused by the weather. The favored It's Never Too Late was 1/2.
Of those 121 races 7 have been won by the longest shot in the field. For the mathematically impaired, that's a 5.8% hit rate. If you have bet two dollars on the longest shot in the field in every one of these qualifying races you would be ahead $107.60 with an ROI of $0.46. In addition your average winning odds would be 28/1 even with the 4/5 long shot. There, now how much fairer can I be than to report favorably on an angle given me by the author of a book I panned, and still do.
That's all for now
In case you're wondering, Dunkirk may need the help of a rabbit if the track runs like it did today. I've been wondering how all the rain we had last week would effect the course. In general the track has been favoring speed, but after entering the times and beaten lengths in my track profile, I'm surprised the Hallandale Beach Police weren't out by the quarter pole with a radar gun writing tickets. We'll see if the speed bias continues until Saturday.
Speaking of bias, the ongoing saga of J. J. Tuttle continues. He sent me an E-Mail last week to boast that my review of his book was going to be taken down and so it was. After I vigorously protested this move to Amazon threatening to rain down upon them all my blogging and racing connections, they saw fit to reinstate my review.
I don't think I've been unfair to Mr. Tuttle. In fact, in the interest of fairness, here's an update on the long shot-short field angle. To date at the Gulfstream meet there have been 121 races meeting the criteria of 7 or fewer horses including one on Saturday won by the 4/5 longshot Nistle's Crunch. Tee hee. That last one was a two horse match race due to scratches caused by the weather. The favored It's Never Too Late was 1/2.
Of those 121 races 7 have been won by the longest shot in the field. For the mathematically impaired, that's a 5.8% hit rate. If you have bet two dollars on the longest shot in the field in every one of these qualifying races you would be ahead $107.60 with an ROI of $0.46. In addition your average winning odds would be 28/1 even with the 4/5 long shot. There, now how much fairer can I be than to report favorably on an angle given me by the author of a book I panned, and still do.
That's all for now
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Breeder's Cup Post-Mortem
What can I say? Every race this weekend was a complete nail-biter. My only wish is that my personal selections on Saturday would've been better. Of the 9 races, only 2 contenders managed to find the winner's circle.
In the Marathon I wound up on Big Booster who, at least managed to finish a competitive 3rd.
In the Turf Sprint I knew there was a strong possibility that Mr. Nightlinger and California Flag would duel each other to a collapse on the front end, but I was unable to come up with correct horse to pick up the pieces. Three selections in this race came up as overlays, by my reckoning, indicating I didn't have a very good grasp of this race. The betting collective is not stupid by any means, so if I seem to run this far against the grain I stay out of the race.
The dirt mile was another complete whiff on my part. I split my wager between Surf Cat and Pyro. I knew Pyro would have his work cut out for him here, but I really thought Surf Cat would put in a stronger performance.
For the Breeder's Cup Mile, I clearly underestimated how good Goldikova is by making her 5-1. I played the 3rd place finisher, Whatthescript, but it wasn't close once Goldy found a seam and turned on the jets. Goldikova was one of the horses getting a lot of buzz all week long which just naturally raised my contrarian instincts. However the buzz was correct this time. And just think, this is the second best filly in Europe this year.
The BC Juvenile offered what I believed to be the first good Pick-3 opportunity of the day with the top selection of Bushranger going off at 5-1. As you know by now, Bushranger diappointed and killed both my Pick 3 and my win bet.
Not to be discouraged, the BC Juvenile Turf race was one race I felt very confident about and again my top choice, Bittel Road, was going off at nice odds. Another Pick 3/Win bet shot down quickly.
I really have to give Bob Baffert credit getting Midnight Lute ready for the BC Sprint coming off his last race. If I'd have given him credit before the race rather than after I might've been better off. Black Seventeen was my huckleberry in this race. Another win bet off the board.
The bright spot of the day was Conduit in the BC Turf. Soldier of Fortune was the buzz horse in this race, so this was a time when discounting the buzz horse paid off. Conduit, being my top choice, got my maximum bet and paid off a little better than 5 to 1. This race combined with a couple of max bet winners earlier at Calder Race Course made the day slightly profitable as well as entertaining.
The BC Classic lived up to its billing. I made a token exacta bet with Curlin on top of Colonel John just because it was Curlin's last race but otherwise decided to sit the race out. I really thought Curlin was going win and drag Colonel John behind him when he made the big sweeping move on the turn with CJ in tow. Then Curlin seemed to flatten out down the stretch and get swallowed by a wave of horse flesh with Raven's Pass clearly the better horse on this day. All the same, I'd happily trade places with Curlin as he heads off to a leisurely retirement of carnal pleasure.
Well there you have it. All in all I had a great weekend, and made a little money. After the classic, I took my lovely wife upstairs to the Ten Palms restautant where we enjoyed the all you can eat buffet with some of my winnings for the weekend. It was the least I could do after pretty much abandoning her for the entire weekend.
Well its back to my day job on Monday and the more mundane world, but easier to fathom, world of cheap claiming horses at CRC. Until next time.
In the Marathon I wound up on Big Booster who, at least managed to finish a competitive 3rd.
In the Turf Sprint I knew there was a strong possibility that Mr. Nightlinger and California Flag would duel each other to a collapse on the front end, but I was unable to come up with correct horse to pick up the pieces. Three selections in this race came up as overlays, by my reckoning, indicating I didn't have a very good grasp of this race. The betting collective is not stupid by any means, so if I seem to run this far against the grain I stay out of the race.
The dirt mile was another complete whiff on my part. I split my wager between Surf Cat and Pyro. I knew Pyro would have his work cut out for him here, but I really thought Surf Cat would put in a stronger performance.
For the Breeder's Cup Mile, I clearly underestimated how good Goldikova is by making her 5-1. I played the 3rd place finisher, Whatthescript, but it wasn't close once Goldy found a seam and turned on the jets. Goldikova was one of the horses getting a lot of buzz all week long which just naturally raised my contrarian instincts. However the buzz was correct this time. And just think, this is the second best filly in Europe this year.
The BC Juvenile offered what I believed to be the first good Pick-3 opportunity of the day with the top selection of Bushranger going off at 5-1. As you know by now, Bushranger diappointed and killed both my Pick 3 and my win bet.
Not to be discouraged, the BC Juvenile Turf race was one race I felt very confident about and again my top choice, Bittel Road, was going off at nice odds. Another Pick 3/Win bet shot down quickly.
I really have to give Bob Baffert credit getting Midnight Lute ready for the BC Sprint coming off his last race. If I'd have given him credit before the race rather than after I might've been better off. Black Seventeen was my huckleberry in this race. Another win bet off the board.
The bright spot of the day was Conduit in the BC Turf. Soldier of Fortune was the buzz horse in this race, so this was a time when discounting the buzz horse paid off. Conduit, being my top choice, got my maximum bet and paid off a little better than 5 to 1. This race combined with a couple of max bet winners earlier at Calder Race Course made the day slightly profitable as well as entertaining.
The BC Classic lived up to its billing. I made a token exacta bet with Curlin on top of Colonel John just because it was Curlin's last race but otherwise decided to sit the race out. I really thought Curlin was going win and drag Colonel John behind him when he made the big sweeping move on the turn with CJ in tow. Then Curlin seemed to flatten out down the stretch and get swallowed by a wave of horse flesh with Raven's Pass clearly the better horse on this day. All the same, I'd happily trade places with Curlin as he heads off to a leisurely retirement of carnal pleasure.
Well there you have it. All in all I had a great weekend, and made a little money. After the classic, I took my lovely wife upstairs to the Ten Palms restautant where we enjoyed the all you can eat buffet with some of my winnings for the weekend. It was the least I could do after pretty much abandoning her for the entire weekend.
Well its back to my day job on Monday and the more mundane world, but easier to fathom, world of cheap claiming horses at CRC. Until next time.
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