Today is probably the last day for serious Kentucky Derby contenders and wannabes to prep for what remains the most important race for 3 year olds in North America if not the world.
I really wish I had some stunning upsets to predict, but I just can't see it happening. But the good news is, Brisnet's The Wizard would be charging you hard earned money for the same picks you will likely get here for free.
By the way, speaking of free. The information I used to make these selections was obtained from the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance page at http://www.tbablogs.com/. Be sure to pay them a visit. There are many great horse bloggers there and plenty of racing information and selections besides my own. Check them out
The first race is actually a prep for the Kentucky Oaks featuring 3 graduates from the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies. The G1 Ashland Stakes.
I think Beautician coming 2nd off the layoff for Kenneth McPeek out of the G3 Honeybee looks to be a strong contender after finishing 2nd in the aforementioned race. The comment line has Beautician boxed in at the 1/4 pole in the Honeybee. I look for her to move forward under Robby Albarado for this race.
However, Beautician will have to overcome the winner of the Juvenile Fillies, She Be Wild, if she wants to wear the Ashland crown. She Be Wild is trained by Wayne Catalano who has done just fine after getting out from under the thumb of Frank Calabrese. In fact, Catalano has won with 27% of last 37 graded stakes entries and is 37% with the beaten favorite the last 231 times this situation has occurred. With statistics like these and a strong horse under Jose Lezcano, there is no way to count She Be Wild out of the running.
She Be Wild's last race was the G2 Forward Gal on Jan. 31 at Gulfstream where she basically pulled a merry-go-round job in finishing 5th of 11. I'm sure Catalano will be looking for more this time around.
The other BC Filly Juvie grad is Negligee. Coming off a 4 month layoff I'm expecting this may be a conditioner and a true prep for the Oaks for Negligee. However, trainer Terranova is 16% off layoffs of greater than 90 days with a +ROI. Still I would look elsewhere here.
One horse that peeked my interest here as a possible long shot play is Protesting trained by Shug McGaughey. She did not show much in two allowance efforts at Gulfstream but the 95 Brisnet speed figure could but her right in the thick of it if she can duplicate or improve off that race and she does have win over the surface.
Still, I'm not going out on a limb here and will stick with and probably not play the chalk with
4 Beautician
5 She Be Wild
3 Negligee
The G3 Illinois Derby is easily the least prestigious of the 3 Derby preps the other two being the Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby, but it may be the most interesting of the three.
On a track that favors speed and the rail and a field which is generally lacking in flashy early speed, American Lion could not have drawn better breaking from the rail gate. But...I am looking for the combo of Prado and Dutrow on board the stalker Yawanna Twist to be first under the wire. A conviction which will grow even stronger should Awesome Act flatter the top choice 30 minutes earlier in the Wood.
Yawanna Twist has the best figures of all contenders. The fact is his worst lifetime figure is equal to the best of any other in the race excepting Backtalk. Twisty has the tactical ability to stay close to American Lion and possibly Boulder Creek.
American Lion has to be at least the 2nd choice with all the favoring factors the Weasel see's for him in this race. I expect to see him on the lead early, so he won't have to worry about having dirt kicked in his face.
Turf Melody will have to move forward out of the Gotham to beat Gotham runner up Yawanna Twist, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. Turf Melody looks to be a horse on the improve, and 3 year olds can make quantum leaps forward this time of year. You might be able to get a square price on this contender
Backtalk has the look of one of those horses who is fierce in the morning and a asleep when the money is on the line. He did win his last, but notice his figures decline as the distance increases. The Weasel would be surprised to see this one in the Winner's Circle.
4. Yawanna Twist
1. American Lion
5. Turf Melody
It is easy to look at the Wood and think it is a 2 horse race between Eskendereya and Awesome Act. But Ramon Dominquez has been red hot at the Big A and Schoolyard Dreams may have what it takes and the motivation to pull off the upset for trainer Derek Ryan.
Still, Eskendereya dominated the Fountain of Youth field and should have no problem stalking the cheap speed in the race. Gotham winner Awesome Act will bring up the rear early but will have plenty of pace to run at late. Look for Awesome Act to be chasing down either Eskendereya or Schoolyard Dreams in the stretch with one set of backers praying for the wire while the other set encourages Julien Leparoux to get into that 2 horse.
I have to mention Jackson Bend. He's a small horse with a large heart. I just don't think he can get the distance at this level and would like to see him returned to sprinting once the Derby dreams are finally dashed. The one classic race he may do well in is the Preakness due to the tight turns which can favor a smaller horse.
3. Eskendereya
2. Awesome Act
4. Schoolyard Dreams
At last there is the Santa Anita Derby. Lookin At Lucky is the obvious favorite, his race in the Rebel at Oaklawn was nothing short of amazing. If you missed it, find a replay to watch and you'll understand why Lucky is a top Derby contender. But listening to Bob Baffert in a recent interview, the Weasel has to wonder how well intentioned Lucky is for this race. Bob was all about how the goal was to get Lucky through the race in one piece and set up for the big prize being the KY Derby, of course.
This makes The Weasel want to take a shot at throwing Lucky out of the Winner's Circle and look for alternatives who may want it more here.
If we are going to upset Lucky, The Weasel actually likes two Cali breds to perform the feat. Up until the San Felipe, Caracortado was unbeaten in his career. Sidney's Candy won the race wire to wire. The comment line says Sidney was rated, meaning no pressure on the lead. This time may be different. Who's Up, to Sidney's inside has some early foot and could make Sidney work a little harder for that lead this time around.
Alphie's Bet made a quantum leap forward to win the G3 Sham last out and is another that would benefit from a contentious early pace. So here is the way The Weasel see's this one.
10 Alphie's Bet
6 Caracortado
4 Sidney's Candy
Lookin at Lucky will be there somewhere, maybe even on top. Don't be a chalk eating weasel.
The Weasel plans to watch these races at home courtesy of TVG, HRTV or Twinspires TV if I have to. Tomorrow will be a day at the races, grazing on the excellent buffet of the Ten Palms Restaurant at Gulfstream Park with the beautiful Mrs. Weasel.
Speaking of GP. Look for these jockeys to get hot now that the big guns have moved north. Paco Lopez, Joe Bravo (as long as he stays), Manoel Cruz, Luis Saez, Jose Lezcano, and, of course, Elvis Trujillo.
I'm Off!
Showing posts with label Santa Anita. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Santa Anita. Show all posts
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Breeders' Cup Eve
Twas the day before the cup,
and all through the house
the Weasel was searching
for some picks to serve up.
As promised, I have returned to you on the eve of the Breeders' Cup and am prepared to give you my selections for this weekends championship races.
One thing is for sure, there is no shortage of opinions on these races. If you are interested in a consensus of Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance choices then follow this link http://www.tbablogs.com/BCPicks.php .
Due to the sheer number of races, commentary will be minimal to non-existant. If you want reasons, there are plenty willing to offer reasons for their opinions.
As a reminder, since I haven't mentioned this in a while, the top pick will not necessarily be the one to play. We want to play overlays. Many times this will mean playing against the top pick. I have provided my own odds levels for each selection. The first odds are what I consider to be fair odds. The second set will be the minimum odds you need to play the selection.
Friday's Races
The Breeders' Cup Marathon
#6 Mastery : 2/1---3/1
#5 Father Time: 9/2---7/1
#3 Nite Light: 5/1---8/1
#4 Cloudy's Knight: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
#10 Tapitsfly: 3/1---9/2
#7 House of Grace: 7/2---5/1
#1 Potosina: 9/2---7/1
#4 Rose Catherine 5/1---8/1
The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
#3 Blind Luck: 2/1---3/1
#10 Negligee: 9/2---7/1
#7 Devil May Care: 5/1---8/1
#8 She Be Wild: 6/1---9/1
The Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf
#2 Forever Together: 3/1---9/2
#4 Magical Fantasy: 7/2---5/1
#6 Midday: 9/2---7/1
#3 Rutherienne: 5/1---8/1
The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
#7 Informed Decision: 5/2---4/1
#9 Ventura: 3/1---9/2
#2 Sara Louise: 6/1---9/1
#8 Seventh Street: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic
#7 Music Note: 2/1---3/1
#1 Careless Jewel: 2/1---3/1
#2 Life Is Sweet: 6/1---9/1
Saturday's Races
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
#4 Pounced: 2/1---3/1
#3 Codoy: 9/2---7/1
#11 Interactif: 5/1---8/1
#10 Becky's Kitten: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
#7 Gotta Have Her: 3/1---9/2
#6 Cannonball: 7/2---5/1
#3 California Flag: 9/2---7/1
#10 Canadian Ballet: 5/1---8/1
The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint
#8 Captain Candyman Can: 7/2---5/1
#1 Zensational: 7/2---5/1
#3 Fatal Bullet: 9/2---7/1
#5 Gayego: 9/2--- 7/1
The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile
#6 Pulsion: 3/1---9/2
#4 Noble's Promise: 7/2---5/1
#8 Esdendereya: 9/2---7/1
#9 Aikenite: 6/1---9/1
The TVG Breeders' Cup Mile
#4 Delegator: 2/1---3/1
#1 Court Vision: 9/2---7/1
#3 Cowboy Cal: 5/1---7/1
#2 Whatsthescript: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
#1 Mastercraftman: 2/1---3/1
#4 Bullsbay: 9/2---7/1
#2 Furthest Land: 5/1---8/1
#5 Neko Bay: 6/1---9/1
The Emirate Airlines Breeders' Cup Turf
#6 Presious Passion: 3/1---9/2
#2 Conduit: 7/2---5/1
#5 Dar Re Mi: 9/2---7/1
#7 Spanish Moon: 5/1---8/1
The Breeders' Cup Classic
#2 Colonel John: 3/1---9/2
#8 Einstein: 7/2---5/1
#4 Zenyatta: 4/1---6/1
#7 Gio Ponti: 6/1---9/1
Hey! Check out my full analysis of Saturday's race 10 from Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. Also you will find a brief analysis of the Ladies Classic and the Classic. Note, I change my mind on the Classic after I had sent in my picks to Case the Race. I have heard really good things about Rip Van Winkle. Then I hear is very washed out after an easy gallop at Santa Anita and has a chronic foot problem to boot. I don't know how the surface change will affect his foot. I will take a good look at him in the post parade, at least as good as I am able. If I like what I see, I may change my mind again.
Good Luck
and all through the house
the Weasel was searching
for some picks to serve up.
As promised, I have returned to you on the eve of the Breeders' Cup and am prepared to give you my selections for this weekends championship races.
One thing is for sure, there is no shortage of opinions on these races. If you are interested in a consensus of Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance choices then follow this link http://www.tbablogs.com/BCPicks.php .
Due to the sheer number of races, commentary will be minimal to non-existant. If you want reasons, there are plenty willing to offer reasons for their opinions.
As a reminder, since I haven't mentioned this in a while, the top pick will not necessarily be the one to play. We want to play overlays. Many times this will mean playing against the top pick. I have provided my own odds levels for each selection. The first odds are what I consider to be fair odds. The second set will be the minimum odds you need to play the selection.
Friday's Races
The Breeders' Cup Marathon
#6 Mastery : 2/1---3/1
#5 Father Time: 9/2---7/1
#3 Nite Light: 5/1---8/1
#4 Cloudy's Knight: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
#10 Tapitsfly: 3/1---9/2
#7 House of Grace: 7/2---5/1
#1 Potosina: 9/2---7/1
#4 Rose Catherine 5/1---8/1
The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
#3 Blind Luck: 2/1---3/1
#10 Negligee: 9/2---7/1
#7 Devil May Care: 5/1---8/1
#8 She Be Wild: 6/1---9/1
The Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf
#2 Forever Together: 3/1---9/2
#4 Magical Fantasy: 7/2---5/1
#6 Midday: 9/2---7/1
#3 Rutherienne: 5/1---8/1
The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
#7 Informed Decision: 5/2---4/1
#9 Ventura: 3/1---9/2
#2 Sara Louise: 6/1---9/1
#8 Seventh Street: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic
#7 Music Note: 2/1---3/1
#1 Careless Jewel: 2/1---3/1
#2 Life Is Sweet: 6/1---9/1
Saturday's Races
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
#4 Pounced: 2/1---3/1
#3 Codoy: 9/2---7/1
#11 Interactif: 5/1---8/1
#10 Becky's Kitten: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
#7 Gotta Have Her: 3/1---9/2
#6 Cannonball: 7/2---5/1
#3 California Flag: 9/2---7/1
#10 Canadian Ballet: 5/1---8/1
The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint
#8 Captain Candyman Can: 7/2---5/1
#1 Zensational: 7/2---5/1
#3 Fatal Bullet: 9/2---7/1
#5 Gayego: 9/2--- 7/1
The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile
#6 Pulsion: 3/1---9/2
#4 Noble's Promise: 7/2---5/1
#8 Esdendereya: 9/2---7/1
#9 Aikenite: 6/1---9/1
The TVG Breeders' Cup Mile
#4 Delegator: 2/1---3/1
#1 Court Vision: 9/2---7/1
#3 Cowboy Cal: 5/1---7/1
#2 Whatsthescript: 6/1---9/1
The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
#1 Mastercraftman: 2/1---3/1
#4 Bullsbay: 9/2---7/1
#2 Furthest Land: 5/1---8/1
#5 Neko Bay: 6/1---9/1
The Emirate Airlines Breeders' Cup Turf
#6 Presious Passion: 3/1---9/2
#2 Conduit: 7/2---5/1
#5 Dar Re Mi: 9/2---7/1
#7 Spanish Moon: 5/1---8/1
The Breeders' Cup Classic
#2 Colonel John: 3/1---9/2
#8 Einstein: 7/2---5/1
#4 Zenyatta: 4/1---6/1
#7 Gio Ponti: 6/1---9/1
Hey! Check out my full analysis of Saturday's race 10 from Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. Also you will find a brief analysis of the Ladies Classic and the Classic. Note, I change my mind on the Classic after I had sent in my picks to Case the Race. I have heard really good things about Rip Van Winkle. Then I hear is very washed out after an easy gallop at Santa Anita and has a chronic foot problem to boot. I don't know how the surface change will affect his foot. I will take a good look at him in the post parade, at least as good as I am able. If I like what I see, I may change my mind again.
Good Luck
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Breeder's Cup Scramble
Happy to be back in the saddle this week. Sorry about lack of posts last two weekends but sometimes personal and professional obligations just get in the way. I'd rather not do something at all than do it half-assed. After all, we've all got to have priorities.
Realistically, today is the last weekend for Breeder's Cup entries and wannabes to show their stuff, get tuned up for the big races, or just plain find out if they can run with the big dogs. With that thought in mind, Public Handicapper has 2 races from Keeneland and 2 from Santa Anita all of which have implications for the upcoming Breeder's Cup races now less than a month away.
The first race open for discussion is race 8 from Keeneland, The Dixiana Breeders' Futurity for 2 year olds contested at a mile and sixteenth.
I love 2 year old racing, which is a good thing as I get my fair share of it here in South Florida over the summer. Now we've moved from those ridiculous 2f affairs of early April to some real racing distances.
Two year olds are still learning to race and one thing I like to look for as the babies stretch out is those that look as if they get it rather than those which just break from the gate running all out until they can't go no more.
One horse in this race which certainly meets the aforementioned criterion is the #2 Backtalk trained by Thomas Amoss. Back Talk is already a multiple graded stakes winner and I expect him to bounce back after a wide trip in the Hopeful Stakes last out.
One knock against Backtalk we be how well he will take to the surface change. However the Oct. 5 6f work out at a respectable 1:12 4/5 tells me that the surface will not be an issue.
The 2nd choice for this race has yet to break his maiden. I suppose you could say he's a multiple graded stakes runner up. Those Beyer's figures look really nice and Lookin At Lucky has done nothing but flatter #7 Make Music for Me by winning the G1 Norfolk last Sunday at Santa Anita. Make Music for Me is another 2 yo that has shown some ability to hold his powder. Now if he can just get up to the line in time we may see some real fireworks.
The 3rd choice has merely won a maiden race at Saratoga and has to start from the outside post to boot. But if anyone can figure out a way to overcome a race course obstacle it will be Julien Leparoux on board #14 Stately Victor. Stately Victor is trained by Michael Maker.
Maker is a trainer that doesn't get as much press as others. He simply goes quietly about his business winning at a 25% clip year after year.
Stately Victor scored his maiden win at today's distance over the Saratoga grass posting an 80 Beyer in the process. Word is that good turf form usually translates well to poly form so the surface switch is not nearly as much a concern as the post. Look for Stately Victor at least somewhere underneath in the exotics if not in the winner's circle.
The fourth choice is the undefeated #1 Dixie Band. One reason Wayne Catalano is such a winner is he has a knack for placing his charges in races they can win, and Dixie Band has been no exception.
If there is any way to knock an unbeaten horse, the DRF has tried to do so in their closer look comment that the fillies ran faster in a later race on the same card as his last outing. You may take the comment for what its worth. Last time I looked there weren't any fillies running in the race and fillies seem to have been making it a habit of beating their brethren lately.
Another horse that may be live here, but I don't like the short break (14 days) is #6 Noble's Promise.
Top Choices
#2 Backtalk
#7 Make Music for Me
#14 Stately Victor
#1 Dixie Band
The next race to look at is...the next race at Keeneland or race 9 The Shadwell Turf Mile (G1).
As of this writing the Turf Course is soft and #1 Yorktown and #3 Wise River are scratched.
The soft going will be right up the top choice's alley the #2 Mr. Sidney. Mr. Sidney is 4 for 4 at this distance. Forget about the Arlington Million. Mr. Sidney was out of his element there. Mr. Sidney has won the G1 Maker's Mark Mile here at Keeneland and the G2 Firecracker at Churchill Downs over yielding courses so he definitely has the credentials for win here.
However, Mr Sidney is not a "stone cold lock" in here because there is another horse running that has had a terrific Summer. Long time readers of the report may recall the hunch play from Gulfstream Park way back at the beginning of the year with Justenuffhumor. Well, it turns out you could've ridden that hunch all year long as Justenuffhumor has done nothing but get better and win since January. Now he returns to the site of his only defeat.
Justenuffhumor has improved his Beyer every time he has raced (54, 86, 91, 94, 99, 103, 106). This streak can't go on forever. Sooner or later he has to have traffic problems, not like a surface, or just plain have an off day. I'm going to bet that today is that day. Still, he remains the 2nd choice #7 Justenuffhumor.
The third choice is no stranger to winning on soft grass. #5 Battle of Hastings has had a pretty good Summer himself and surprisingly to me is not a bad miler in his own right although I still believe that more distance suits him better.
Finally the fourth choice is strictly an angle play. #9 Court Vision is making his first start for Richard Dutrow. You can think what you like about Dick, but whether he does it honestly or not, horses that start first time out for him win 30% of the time. So don't ignore this one.
Choices
#2 Mr. Sidney
#7 Justenuffhumor
#5 Battle of Hastings
#9 Court Vision
Now moving on to the 6th race at Santa Anita the 24th running of The Oak Tree Mile (G2).
The top choice for this race has the tactical speed needed to either go to the lead or sit just of the pace as tactics dictate, is 2 for 2 at the distance and is coming out of two tough Saratoga races against 3 yo phenom Justenuffhumor. #9 Cowboy Cal gets the call as the top choice here. Garrett Gomez gets the call and with the recent form Cowboy Cal has been showing I think he is going to be tough to beat in here.
There are a few others that might get to the wire first and the 2nd choice for that honor would be #4 Global Hunter. Global Hunter turns back to a better distance after running 8th in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Looked to me like he never really got into that race. I prefer to look at the two races sandwiched in between the two 10 furlong debacles to get a better idea of the Hunter's ability at a mile. Global Hunter can win this race and may give a decent price in the process.
Another kinda sneaky horse in here is the #10 Whatsthescript coming in fresh for John Sadler who is 25% with a +ROI for horses off for 61-180 days. In case you think this may be too tough a spot to comeback in I will point out that Whatsthescript finished 3rd behind Goldikova and Kip Deville in last year's BC Mile after a similar layoff. Whatsthescript is 4 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 on the SA turf and should feel right at home here.
Finally I just have to throw in a tepid 4th choice here, #7 Monterrey Jazz. Monterrey Jazz clearly did not take to the Del Mar turf after a good Hollywood meet. In addition, the Winter Santa Anita meet was nothing to write home about either. However, MJ has run well here in the past and gets a positive jockey change in the person of Hall of Famer Mike Smith. Its a long shot and chances are MJ will run out of gas again, but then again...
Choices
#9 Cowboy Cal
#4 Global Hunter
#10 Whatsthescript
#7 Monterrey Jazz
Ok, I'm running out of steam here, good thing there is only one more to go. The 7th race from Santa Anita The Goodwood (G1) for 3 and up
I love it when the connections take a horse out of his element, like running on turf a race before a big one such as this because it helps to darken the form just enough to take less savvy players off him. Such is the case with my top pick here, #2 Tiago.
Tiago comes into this race fresh with only his 2nd race since February. With regular rider Mike Smith on board look for Tiago to be sweeping up wide and late (does Smith know any other way to ride?).
Tiago is 8 times ITM with 4 wins in 8 tries at the distance and has won over 1.5 million at Santa Anita. Look for him to add to that total today.
The 2nd choice is #4 Colonel John who had a terrible trip in the Pacific Classic. Look for the Colonel to improve on that effort with some better luck today.
The question about the 3rd choice #10 Mine That Bird in my mind is whether or not he is legit or merely a flash in the pan. We'll find out a lot about that today. The Bird has been working well over the course and I understand Woolley is happy with the way he has been running.
The Bird also gets reunited with his Derby rider Calvin Borel. However, Cali is a long way from Kentucky and the riding styles on the cushion are not the same as at Churchill. I'm not sure Calvin will make the adjustment.
Finally, I have to throw in Tres Borrachos as the 4th. If there was any other speed in this race, Tres would not get mentioned; however, this is the only horse in this race that has shown any desire to show the way. Joe Talamo knows how to ride so don't be shocked if today is the day Tres Borrachos wires the field.
Choices
#2 Tiago
#4 Colonel John
#10 Mine That Bird
#5 Tres Borrachos
By the way, commencing next week and continuing for a total of 4 weeks I will be a guest commentator for Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. I will choose one race on the Saturday card for Calder Race Course and offer my own unique perspective on the race. I'm really looking forward to the opportunity to perhaps shed some light on the racing at my home track.
Until the next post. Good luck
Realistically, today is the last weekend for Breeder's Cup entries and wannabes to show their stuff, get tuned up for the big races, or just plain find out if they can run with the big dogs. With that thought in mind, Public Handicapper has 2 races from Keeneland and 2 from Santa Anita all of which have implications for the upcoming Breeder's Cup races now less than a month away.
The first race open for discussion is race 8 from Keeneland, The Dixiana Breeders' Futurity for 2 year olds contested at a mile and sixteenth.
I love 2 year old racing, which is a good thing as I get my fair share of it here in South Florida over the summer. Now we've moved from those ridiculous 2f affairs of early April to some real racing distances.
Two year olds are still learning to race and one thing I like to look for as the babies stretch out is those that look as if they get it rather than those which just break from the gate running all out until they can't go no more.
One horse in this race which certainly meets the aforementioned criterion is the #2 Backtalk trained by Thomas Amoss. Back Talk is already a multiple graded stakes winner and I expect him to bounce back after a wide trip in the Hopeful Stakes last out.
One knock against Backtalk we be how well he will take to the surface change. However the Oct. 5 6f work out at a respectable 1:12 4/5 tells me that the surface will not be an issue.
The 2nd choice for this race has yet to break his maiden. I suppose you could say he's a multiple graded stakes runner up. Those Beyer's figures look really nice and Lookin At Lucky has done nothing but flatter #7 Make Music for Me by winning the G1 Norfolk last Sunday at Santa Anita. Make Music for Me is another 2 yo that has shown some ability to hold his powder. Now if he can just get up to the line in time we may see some real fireworks.
The 3rd choice has merely won a maiden race at Saratoga and has to start from the outside post to boot. But if anyone can figure out a way to overcome a race course obstacle it will be Julien Leparoux on board #14 Stately Victor. Stately Victor is trained by Michael Maker.
Maker is a trainer that doesn't get as much press as others. He simply goes quietly about his business winning at a 25% clip year after year.
Stately Victor scored his maiden win at today's distance over the Saratoga grass posting an 80 Beyer in the process. Word is that good turf form usually translates well to poly form so the surface switch is not nearly as much a concern as the post. Look for Stately Victor at least somewhere underneath in the exotics if not in the winner's circle.
The fourth choice is the undefeated #1 Dixie Band. One reason Wayne Catalano is such a winner is he has a knack for placing his charges in races they can win, and Dixie Band has been no exception.
If there is any way to knock an unbeaten horse, the DRF has tried to do so in their closer look comment that the fillies ran faster in a later race on the same card as his last outing. You may take the comment for what its worth. Last time I looked there weren't any fillies running in the race and fillies seem to have been making it a habit of beating their brethren lately.
Another horse that may be live here, but I don't like the short break (14 days) is #6 Noble's Promise.
Top Choices
#2 Backtalk
#7 Make Music for Me
#14 Stately Victor
#1 Dixie Band
The next race to look at is...the next race at Keeneland or race 9 The Shadwell Turf Mile (G1).
As of this writing the Turf Course is soft and #1 Yorktown and #3 Wise River are scratched.
The soft going will be right up the top choice's alley the #2 Mr. Sidney. Mr. Sidney is 4 for 4 at this distance. Forget about the Arlington Million. Mr. Sidney was out of his element there. Mr. Sidney has won the G1 Maker's Mark Mile here at Keeneland and the G2 Firecracker at Churchill Downs over yielding courses so he definitely has the credentials for win here.
However, Mr Sidney is not a "stone cold lock" in here because there is another horse running that has had a terrific Summer. Long time readers of the report may recall the hunch play from Gulfstream Park way back at the beginning of the year with Justenuffhumor. Well, it turns out you could've ridden that hunch all year long as Justenuffhumor has done nothing but get better and win since January. Now he returns to the site of his only defeat.
Justenuffhumor has improved his Beyer every time he has raced (54, 86, 91, 94, 99, 103, 106). This streak can't go on forever. Sooner or later he has to have traffic problems, not like a surface, or just plain have an off day. I'm going to bet that today is that day. Still, he remains the 2nd choice #7 Justenuffhumor.
The third choice is no stranger to winning on soft grass. #5 Battle of Hastings has had a pretty good Summer himself and surprisingly to me is not a bad miler in his own right although I still believe that more distance suits him better.
Finally the fourth choice is strictly an angle play. #9 Court Vision is making his first start for Richard Dutrow. You can think what you like about Dick, but whether he does it honestly or not, horses that start first time out for him win 30% of the time. So don't ignore this one.
Choices
#2 Mr. Sidney
#7 Justenuffhumor
#5 Battle of Hastings
#9 Court Vision
Now moving on to the 6th race at Santa Anita the 24th running of The Oak Tree Mile (G2).
The top choice for this race has the tactical speed needed to either go to the lead or sit just of the pace as tactics dictate, is 2 for 2 at the distance and is coming out of two tough Saratoga races against 3 yo phenom Justenuffhumor. #9 Cowboy Cal gets the call as the top choice here. Garrett Gomez gets the call and with the recent form Cowboy Cal has been showing I think he is going to be tough to beat in here.
There are a few others that might get to the wire first and the 2nd choice for that honor would be #4 Global Hunter. Global Hunter turns back to a better distance after running 8th in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Looked to me like he never really got into that race. I prefer to look at the two races sandwiched in between the two 10 furlong debacles to get a better idea of the Hunter's ability at a mile. Global Hunter can win this race and may give a decent price in the process.
Another kinda sneaky horse in here is the #10 Whatsthescript coming in fresh for John Sadler who is 25% with a +ROI for horses off for 61-180 days. In case you think this may be too tough a spot to comeback in I will point out that Whatsthescript finished 3rd behind Goldikova and Kip Deville in last year's BC Mile after a similar layoff. Whatsthescript is 4 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 on the SA turf and should feel right at home here.
Finally I just have to throw in a tepid 4th choice here, #7 Monterrey Jazz. Monterrey Jazz clearly did not take to the Del Mar turf after a good Hollywood meet. In addition, the Winter Santa Anita meet was nothing to write home about either. However, MJ has run well here in the past and gets a positive jockey change in the person of Hall of Famer Mike Smith. Its a long shot and chances are MJ will run out of gas again, but then again...
Choices
#9 Cowboy Cal
#4 Global Hunter
#10 Whatsthescript
#7 Monterrey Jazz
Ok, I'm running out of steam here, good thing there is only one more to go. The 7th race from Santa Anita The Goodwood (G1) for 3 and up
I love it when the connections take a horse out of his element, like running on turf a race before a big one such as this because it helps to darken the form just enough to take less savvy players off him. Such is the case with my top pick here, #2 Tiago.
Tiago comes into this race fresh with only his 2nd race since February. With regular rider Mike Smith on board look for Tiago to be sweeping up wide and late (does Smith know any other way to ride?).
Tiago is 8 times ITM with 4 wins in 8 tries at the distance and has won over 1.5 million at Santa Anita. Look for him to add to that total today.
The 2nd choice is #4 Colonel John who had a terrible trip in the Pacific Classic. Look for the Colonel to improve on that effort with some better luck today.
The question about the 3rd choice #10 Mine That Bird in my mind is whether or not he is legit or merely a flash in the pan. We'll find out a lot about that today. The Bird has been working well over the course and I understand Woolley is happy with the way he has been running.
The Bird also gets reunited with his Derby rider Calvin Borel. However, Cali is a long way from Kentucky and the riding styles on the cushion are not the same as at Churchill. I'm not sure Calvin will make the adjustment.
Finally, I have to throw in Tres Borrachos as the 4th. If there was any other speed in this race, Tres would not get mentioned; however, this is the only horse in this race that has shown any desire to show the way. Joe Talamo knows how to ride so don't be shocked if today is the day Tres Borrachos wires the field.
Choices
#2 Tiago
#4 Colonel John
#10 Mine That Bird
#5 Tres Borrachos
By the way, commencing next week and continuing for a total of 4 weeks I will be a guest commentator for Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. I will choose one race on the Saturday card for Calder Race Course and offer my own unique perspective on the race. I'm really looking forward to the opportunity to perhaps shed some light on the racing at my home track.
Until the next post. Good luck
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Public Handicapper February 28th
Once again your intrepid handicapper is back with another collection of SWAG's for the publichandicapper.com contest.
This week we have two races each from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. One race at each is on the grass for older horses and the 2nd races are on the main track with Derby implications for 3 year olds.
Todd Pletcher's Take The Points was entered in both the Fountain of Youth and the Sham. However, Pletcher is opting for softer competition (IMHO) the Sham at SA.
So now for the Selections:
Race 8 at GP is the 150k Canadian Turf Hdcp.
I should point out right off the bat, for any who might be thinking of considering Delightful Kiss in this race that he, by the admission of his trainer in the DRF http://www.drf.com/news/article/101921.html, is not well intended for this race. Trainer Pete Anderson is considering this as a prep race for Dubai. Of course, he goes on to say something like, to paraphrase Drago from I think it is Rocky 4, if he wins he wins. But my experience has been, if a trainer comes out and tells you he's using a race as a prep race, believe him. Therefore, I don't even consider Delightful Kiss to be a win contender in this race. If we can throw out DK, at least from the win position, then that could make this a very nice betting race for those of us who are better read than others. That being said, here are my picks for the Canadian Turf Hdcp.
#8 Just As Well
3-1
9-2
#7 Vanquisher
7-2
5-1
#10 Bujagali
9-2
7-1
#2 Sporting Art
6-1
9-1
#8 Overachieved last out, Leparoux stays on. #7 May not belong here but showed big closing kick in winning last. #10 is the only committed pure front runner in the race. We have not had much rain this winter and speed is starting to hold up well on the turf course. Could be worth a shot at a price. #2 comes off a long layoff, but KD took the mount and Christophe Clemente is always dangerous on turf.
Next up is the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes to be run at a mile
#9 Capt. Candyman Can
2-1
3-1
#7 Beethoven
9-2
7-1
#3 Notonthesamepage
5-1
8-1
#2 Theregoesjojo
6-1
9-1
#9 has the tactical ability to deal with whatever pace scenario thrown at him. Watch a replay of the Hutcheson where he stalks the pace setters, throttles down to move to the outside, and then reaccelerates to win more easily that the lenghts beaten indicates. #7 got hung 4 wide into the first turn from the deadly outside post at the 1 1/8 Holy Bull. Made a good move to get into contention before running out of gas after running further than any other contender down stretch. #3 May have the early run to avoid the pitfalls of coming out of the 1M chute from an inside post, but there is a lot of speed in this race so he'll need a perfect trip.#2 had plenty left in the tank while winning last out. Not as accomplished as some others here but should be coming at the end.
Over at the other coast. No, not Tampa. The OTHER coast
The 100k Crystal Water Handicap for older California Bredsa
#6 Lucky J H
2-1
3-1
#4 Liberian Freighter
3-1
9-2
#5 Bold Cheiftan
7-2
5-1
#6 Shows a versatile running style and is capable of adjusting to the existing pace condition of the race. Comes 3rd off layoff for Carla Gaines and I can excuse last effort on an off Turf Course #4 should have the controlling speed in a relatively light field, seems to make it a habit of fading near the end but could go wire to wire if allowed to relax early #5 would probably beat this field for fun if well intended in first race after a 4 month hiatus. Might win any way, but I'd need a price for this race.
And last but not least.
The G3 Sham
P# 9th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#12 Take The Points
3-2
5-2
#3 The Pamplemousse
3-2
5-2
I really see this as a two horse race. The Pamplemousse had it all his own way getting to control the pace in a short field for the G3 San Rafael. Therefore the strength of that performance may be overrated. Take The Points was also entered in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but perhaps Pletcher sees some easy pickin's in moving out west instead. Other than these two, it is really hard to make a case for anyone else in the race from my POV.
This week we have two races each from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. One race at each is on the grass for older horses and the 2nd races are on the main track with Derby implications for 3 year olds.
Todd Pletcher's Take The Points was entered in both the Fountain of Youth and the Sham. However, Pletcher is opting for softer competition (IMHO) the Sham at SA.
So now for the Selections:
Race 8 at GP is the 150k Canadian Turf Hdcp.
I should point out right off the bat, for any who might be thinking of considering Delightful Kiss in this race that he, by the admission of his trainer in the DRF http://www.drf.com/news/article/101921.html, is not well intended for this race. Trainer Pete Anderson is considering this as a prep race for Dubai. Of course, he goes on to say something like, to paraphrase Drago from I think it is Rocky 4, if he wins he wins. But my experience has been, if a trainer comes out and tells you he's using a race as a prep race, believe him. Therefore, I don't even consider Delightful Kiss to be a win contender in this race. If we can throw out DK, at least from the win position, then that could make this a very nice betting race for those of us who are better read than others. That being said, here are my picks for the Canadian Turf Hdcp.
#8 Just As Well
3-1
9-2
#7 Vanquisher
7-2
5-1
#10 Bujagali
9-2
7-1
#2 Sporting Art
6-1
9-1
#8 Overachieved last out, Leparoux stays on. #7 May not belong here but showed big closing kick in winning last. #10 is the only committed pure front runner in the race. We have not had much rain this winter and speed is starting to hold up well on the turf course. Could be worth a shot at a price. #2 comes off a long layoff, but KD took the mount and Christophe Clemente is always dangerous on turf.
Next up is the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes to be run at a mile
#9 Capt. Candyman Can
2-1
3-1
#7 Beethoven
9-2
7-1
#3 Notonthesamepage
5-1
8-1
#2 Theregoesjojo
6-1
9-1
#9 has the tactical ability to deal with whatever pace scenario thrown at him. Watch a replay of the Hutcheson where he stalks the pace setters, throttles down to move to the outside, and then reaccelerates to win more easily that the lenghts beaten indicates. #7 got hung 4 wide into the first turn from the deadly outside post at the 1 1/8 Holy Bull. Made a good move to get into contention before running out of gas after running further than any other contender down stretch. #3 May have the early run to avoid the pitfalls of coming out of the 1M chute from an inside post, but there is a lot of speed in this race so he'll need a perfect trip.#2 had plenty left in the tank while winning last out. Not as accomplished as some others here but should be coming at the end.
Over at the other coast. No, not Tampa. The OTHER coast
The 100k Crystal Water Handicap for older California Bredsa
#6 Lucky J H
2-1
3-1
#4 Liberian Freighter
3-1
9-2
#5 Bold Cheiftan
7-2
5-1
#6 Shows a versatile running style and is capable of adjusting to the existing pace condition of the race. Comes 3rd off layoff for Carla Gaines and I can excuse last effort on an off Turf Course #4 should have the controlling speed in a relatively light field, seems to make it a habit of fading near the end but could go wire to wire if allowed to relax early #5 would probably beat this field for fun if well intended in first race after a 4 month hiatus. Might win any way, but I'd need a price for this race.
And last but not least.
The G3 Sham
P# 9th Race
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#12 Take The Points
3-2
5-2
#3 The Pamplemousse
3-2
5-2
I really see this as a two horse race. The Pamplemousse had it all his own way getting to control the pace in a short field for the G3 San Rafael. Therefore the strength of that performance may be overrated. Take The Points was also entered in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but perhaps Pletcher sees some easy pickin's in moving out west instead. Other than these two, it is really hard to make a case for anyone else in the race from my POV.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Hooky!
I got to play hooky from work today, sort of. Having a 1:00 dentist appointment, conveniently located near Gulfstream Park, I boogied on out of that dentist's office as soon as they would let me go and managed to get to good ol' GP in time to see the 3rd race go off.
Ah great joy under partly cloudy skies and a very pleasant 74 degrees (I'm too lazy to use superscript). Even managed to win an investment on the 9-1 Mi Carola in the 7th race making for an extra enjoyable day, indeed.
Also watched Kiaran McLaughlin sweat out the race of the heavily favored Hellvelyn who barely beat at the wire the speedy Piratesonthelake. "Never a doubt," he said.
I don't know what's going to happen to Magna Entertainment, but apparently the shopping, office, and entertainment complex located between the track and U.S. 1 is moving right along. There is a story at Miami Herald. com today that says the says the 85% completed project now has 50% of its space leased to prospective tenants. Such tenants will include Crate and Barrel (who needs crates and barrels?) and The Container Store. In addition there will be up to 10 restaurants and other boutique, specialty type stores. In addition, the developer has cut a deal with the Hallandale Beach City Commision that gives them a share of the projected increased tax revenue projected to reach up to $900k annually. That is of course, if anyone is still in business by 2010. Here's the link if your interested in the entire article. http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/922000.html
I noticed that mention of Magna Entertainment was absent. I have no particular love for MEC. I really don't know that much about them except that they are basically broke. Still, I would hate to lose the Gulfstream Winter racing season. Year round racing at Calder Race Course just won't cut it. I love the full competitive fields. It's so much easier finding overlays among the throngs of socialites and vacationers just out for a daily lark than entering the shark pit and short fields at Calder Race Course.
And speaking of short fields, during my phone conversation with JJ Tuttle (remember him?) he strongly suggested betting the longest shot in a short field. Now a short field is defined as 7 or fewer horses. He wrote about this angle in one of his books, I forget which one. Of course, he offered no data to support this thesis, but because this one is a no brainer to test, I have decided to put it to the test. So far this season, this has been a winning angle at Gulfstream with a 10% hit rate out of 50 such races. The angle shows a $175.80 profit based on a $2.00 win bet for each longest shot contender. However, after going back through all of Gulfstream's charts for the 2009 meet so far, I started on CRC. I haven't gotten very far yet, but after 22 qualifying races the angle has been shut out. Now it is possible that tracks like Calder attract a savvier clientele regarding the handicapping of horses than does Gulfstream Park. I will continue tracking Gulfstream through the remainder of the season and work my way back through all the Calder charts that I have. I don't think I have all the charts for CRC on my hard drive, but I think I can get them if I look hard enough. If anyone want's to share in this little project, I suggest you choose an upper echelon track like, say Santa Anita and a more pedestrian track such as Golden Gate Fields. As for me, I'll be tracking the upcoming Keeneland and Churchill Downs meets. I'll keep you up to date with my results. Who knows, maybe I'll owe Mr. Tuttle an apology.
See ya next time.
Ah great joy under partly cloudy skies and a very pleasant 74 degrees (I'm too lazy to use superscript). Even managed to win an investment on the 9-1 Mi Carola in the 7th race making for an extra enjoyable day, indeed.
Also watched Kiaran McLaughlin sweat out the race of the heavily favored Hellvelyn who barely beat at the wire the speedy Piratesonthelake. "Never a doubt," he said.
I don't know what's going to happen to Magna Entertainment, but apparently the shopping, office, and entertainment complex located between the track and U.S. 1 is moving right along. There is a story at Miami Herald. com today that says the says the 85% completed project now has 50% of its space leased to prospective tenants. Such tenants will include Crate and Barrel (who needs crates and barrels?) and The Container Store. In addition there will be up to 10 restaurants and other boutique, specialty type stores. In addition, the developer has cut a deal with the Hallandale Beach City Commision that gives them a share of the projected increased tax revenue projected to reach up to $900k annually. That is of course, if anyone is still in business by 2010. Here's the link if your interested in the entire article. http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/922000.html
I noticed that mention of Magna Entertainment was absent. I have no particular love for MEC. I really don't know that much about them except that they are basically broke. Still, I would hate to lose the Gulfstream Winter racing season. Year round racing at Calder Race Course just won't cut it. I love the full competitive fields. It's so much easier finding overlays among the throngs of socialites and vacationers just out for a daily lark than entering the shark pit and short fields at Calder Race Course.
And speaking of short fields, during my phone conversation with JJ Tuttle (remember him?) he strongly suggested betting the longest shot in a short field. Now a short field is defined as 7 or fewer horses. He wrote about this angle in one of his books, I forget which one. Of course, he offered no data to support this thesis, but because this one is a no brainer to test, I have decided to put it to the test. So far this season, this has been a winning angle at Gulfstream with a 10% hit rate out of 50 such races. The angle shows a $175.80 profit based on a $2.00 win bet for each longest shot contender. However, after going back through all of Gulfstream's charts for the 2009 meet so far, I started on CRC. I haven't gotten very far yet, but after 22 qualifying races the angle has been shut out. Now it is possible that tracks like Calder attract a savvier clientele regarding the handicapping of horses than does Gulfstream Park. I will continue tracking Gulfstream through the remainder of the season and work my way back through all the Calder charts that I have. I don't think I have all the charts for CRC on my hard drive, but I think I can get them if I look hard enough. If anyone want's to share in this little project, I suggest you choose an upper echelon track like, say Santa Anita and a more pedestrian track such as Golden Gate Fields. As for me, I'll be tracking the upcoming Keeneland and Churchill Downs meets. I'll keep you up to date with my results. Who knows, maybe I'll owe Mr. Tuttle an apology.
See ya next time.
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Some Days You Get The Bear and ....
Yesterday was one of the days the bear got me, it happens and I don't worry about it too much although I did nearly throw my binder when my playing in selection in the 8th race at Gulfstream Park reared at the start. It was one of those days.
I did get to meet Michael Nikolic, the writer of Gathering The Wind http://blackwatchholdings.blogspot.com/. Meeting Michael was very enjoyable and it is always nice to put a face on a name. Only hope I didn't ruin his day.
Meanwhile back to Saturday's results. If its any consolation, I didn't do any better in my other investments than I did with the stakes races.
The Mac Diamarda Stakes at Gulfstream was easily the most frustrating. Firstly because I was there. And mostly because I got to sit there and watch the odds sit right at my overlay points on Pressious Passion, Quasicobra, and Always First. At first, all three horses were overlays with both Quasicobra and Always First both at 8-1 or higher, which would have been a no play. Pressious Passion sat at 5-1 for most of the betting until, maybe 3 minutes before post. Finally, Pressious Passion dropped to 9-2 leaving me with Always First at 7-1 and Quasicobra at 10-1 making the bet to win on Always First with the exacta of Pressious Passion, Quasicobra, and Spice Route over Always First. A look at the results chart of the race shows me that Always First was only $0.10 away from being 8-1 and would have had a nice exacta. The cliche about football is that its a game of inches. Horse racing is more about inches in more ways than football can ever dream about.
Meanwhile, over at the Tampa Bay Stakes. Classic Campaign gave it a good go before being edged at the wire by a neck. Technically, there was no overlay in that race so no detriment to my little record on the left. Unfortunately for me, and this is why I do so much better with a simulcast monitor I can invest from, Classic Campaign dropped from a very nice over layed 8-1 to 7-2 between 5 MTP and Post, actual final odds were 3.9 to 1. Since the 28 to 1 long shot, Victory Alleged indeed, outfinished all my contenders, I came up empty there as well.
Meanwhile, as the bad streak continues, at Turfway in the Valdale Stakes. Spoilher was the play. Unfortunately, Spoilher did not finish. I didn't play that race because I was on my way to the Florida Panthers game by then. However, if I had played that race, Spoilher would have been the 3rd horse I played in 2 weeks that broke down. Bad luck for me and even worse for the poor horses. Trainers and owners should start paying me to not play their horses.
Later at Santa Anita, at least Bel Air Sizzle gave me a conteder with a picture in the winner's circle even if he did have to share the spotlight with One Bad Kitty. However, the play for me was Christiana's Heat at 4-1. Good thing I was at the hockey game by then. Still, it has to count against me as far as the little results thingy on the left goes.
That's racing! The great thing is there is always another race just around the corner. I have to go out now and buy a new mattress.
I did get to meet Michael Nikolic, the writer of Gathering The Wind http://blackwatchholdings.blogspot.com/. Meeting Michael was very enjoyable and it is always nice to put a face on a name. Only hope I didn't ruin his day.
Meanwhile back to Saturday's results. If its any consolation, I didn't do any better in my other investments than I did with the stakes races.
The Mac Diamarda Stakes at Gulfstream was easily the most frustrating. Firstly because I was there. And mostly because I got to sit there and watch the odds sit right at my overlay points on Pressious Passion, Quasicobra, and Always First. At first, all three horses were overlays with both Quasicobra and Always First both at 8-1 or higher, which would have been a no play. Pressious Passion sat at 5-1 for most of the betting until, maybe 3 minutes before post. Finally, Pressious Passion dropped to 9-2 leaving me with Always First at 7-1 and Quasicobra at 10-1 making the bet to win on Always First with the exacta of Pressious Passion, Quasicobra, and Spice Route over Always First. A look at the results chart of the race shows me that Always First was only $0.10 away from being 8-1 and would have had a nice exacta. The cliche about football is that its a game of inches. Horse racing is more about inches in more ways than football can ever dream about.
Meanwhile, over at the Tampa Bay Stakes. Classic Campaign gave it a good go before being edged at the wire by a neck. Technically, there was no overlay in that race so no detriment to my little record on the left. Unfortunately for me, and this is why I do so much better with a simulcast monitor I can invest from, Classic Campaign dropped from a very nice over layed 8-1 to 7-2 between 5 MTP and Post, actual final odds were 3.9 to 1. Since the 28 to 1 long shot, Victory Alleged indeed, outfinished all my contenders, I came up empty there as well.
Meanwhile, as the bad streak continues, at Turfway in the Valdale Stakes. Spoilher was the play. Unfortunately, Spoilher did not finish. I didn't play that race because I was on my way to the Florida Panthers game by then. However, if I had played that race, Spoilher would have been the 3rd horse I played in 2 weeks that broke down. Bad luck for me and even worse for the poor horses. Trainers and owners should start paying me to not play their horses.
Later at Santa Anita, at least Bel Air Sizzle gave me a conteder with a picture in the winner's circle even if he did have to share the spotlight with One Bad Kitty. However, the play for me was Christiana's Heat at 4-1. Good thing I was at the hockey game by then. Still, it has to count against me as far as the little results thingy on the left goes.
That's racing! The great thing is there is always another race just around the corner. I have to go out now and buy a new mattress.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
P H picks for Feb. 21
It's another beautiful day for racing in Sunny South Florida at the Hallandale Beach Gargantuan known as Gulfsteam Park Racing and Casino. What? They have a casino here? Anyhow, I know you are all waiting to see what I've come up with this week. Especially after last weeks lowly 1 for 3 showing ( 0 for 2 if you foolishly followed my betting instructions). The betting instructions can be found in last weeks post, so, without further ado, here are the Saturday Public Handicapper.com picks
First up is the Mac Diarmida Stakes G2 for Four Year Olds and Upward from Gulfstream Park
1 and 3/8 miles on the Turf
#6 Always First
3-1
9-2
#12 Pressious Passion
7-2
5-1
#3 Spice Route
4-1
6-1
#5 Quasicobra
6-1
9-1
#6 G3 winner loves distance comes in fresh #12 extreme outside post prevents from favoritism, can still win here #3 Has run very well in G1 distance races at Woodbine #5 With Leparoux on top is just the kind of long shot I love on the grass.
Excuse the brief analysis, I was doing that one late last night. Now, moving on.
Tampa Bay Stakes 150k for Four Year Olds and Upward 1 and 1/16 miles on the Turf.
#7 Furthest Land
3-1
9-2
#3 Classic Campaign
5-2
5-1
#4 Society's Chairman
7-2
5-1
#1 Atoned
5-1
8-1
This week I am again going for the invaders at Tampa Bay. You'd think I'd learn, but I just didn't think that much of the local talent. #7 Top choice is a Michael Maker horse who showed a great closing kick in winning a 75k Optional Claimer last out at Gulfstream. Has won three in a row and makes stakes debut. #3 ships over from the Fair Grounds for Bill Mott drops down out of a 4th place Grade 3 effort and should find the company a little easier here. #4 Just missed in the Ft. Lauderdale to Kiss the Kid and could run good enough here. #1 is the only Graded stakes winner in the field, but the inside post is 0 for 27 so I have down graded Atoned's chances. In addition, Pletcher had to bring his 2nd stringer, DeCarlo, over for this race as J.R. chose to stay at Gulfstream. What does that tell you?
Then up to Florence, Ky for the 50k Valdale Stakes for Three Year Old Fillies to be contested at a mile over whatever that fake stuff is called they use there.
#10 Spoilher
3-1
9-2
#3 Tacky Cat
7-2
5-1
#6 Emma Darling
4-1
6-1
#7 Karacuda
6-1
9-1
Many of these horse faced each other in the Cincinnati Trophy, but I'm going to the speed horse in the race as the Spoilher. #10 crushed on non-conditioned Allowance field last out at the distance and is 2 for 3 over the course. #3 winner of the C. T. didn't wait to break her maiden before winning C.T. and should be in a good position for a repeat performance. #6 Finished 3rd in C.T. after going 6 wide. The distance should be a better fit here. Michael Maker is a 30% trainer and is an automatic bet in almost every training category. #7 Has lost to the 3 and 6 before, but has run to par so would not completely surprise if she turned the tables here.
Last, but certainly never least, The Valentine Dancer Handicap 100k for California Bred Fillies and Mares 4 Years Old and Upward to be contested at 1 Mile on the Turf.
#2 Christiana's Heat
5-2
4-1
#7 Tiz A Blend
4-1
6-1
#3 Bel Air Sizzle
5-1
8-1
#11 Gambler's Justice
6-1
9-1
Just a note about this race if you've been following the Jockey's series on Animal Planet. It will be interesting to see if Aaron Gryder can stay on One Bad Kitty in the gate today. However the #2 horse has been showing excellent recent form and should be the one to beat . #7 Don't be fooled by the two recent outings by this one as she returns to her favored surface, the projected improvement should not be a surprise. #3 Disappointed on Sunshine Million day, but a return to home and a positive jockey change to Go Go Gomez may be the tonic this one needs #11 This one seems to perk up for the state bred races and the outside post could be a help. Still only 2nd time on grass and coming off a 2 month layoff so some discretion is in order here.
Well that's all for this time. I'm and hour and 40 minutes from leaving the starting gate for GP myself. Here's hoping I did better than last week. And if you want a really hot tip, just bet on the horses I didn't mention and you'll probably do alright.
First up is the Mac Diarmida Stakes G2 for Four Year Olds and Upward from Gulfstream Park
1 and 3/8 miles on the Turf
#6 Always First
3-1
9-2
#12 Pressious Passion
7-2
5-1
#3 Spice Route
4-1
6-1
#5 Quasicobra
6-1
9-1
#6 G3 winner loves distance comes in fresh #12 extreme outside post prevents from favoritism, can still win here #3 Has run very well in G1 distance races at Woodbine #5 With Leparoux on top is just the kind of long shot I love on the grass.
Excuse the brief analysis, I was doing that one late last night. Now, moving on.
Tampa Bay Stakes 150k for Four Year Olds and Upward 1 and 1/16 miles on the Turf.
#7 Furthest Land
3-1
9-2
#3 Classic Campaign
5-2
5-1
#4 Society's Chairman
7-2
5-1
#1 Atoned
5-1
8-1
This week I am again going for the invaders at Tampa Bay. You'd think I'd learn, but I just didn't think that much of the local talent. #7 Top choice is a Michael Maker horse who showed a great closing kick in winning a 75k Optional Claimer last out at Gulfstream. Has won three in a row and makes stakes debut. #3 ships over from the Fair Grounds for Bill Mott drops down out of a 4th place Grade 3 effort and should find the company a little easier here. #4 Just missed in the Ft. Lauderdale to Kiss the Kid and could run good enough here. #1 is the only Graded stakes winner in the field, but the inside post is 0 for 27 so I have down graded Atoned's chances. In addition, Pletcher had to bring his 2nd stringer, DeCarlo, over for this race as J.R. chose to stay at Gulfstream. What does that tell you?
Then up to Florence, Ky for the 50k Valdale Stakes for Three Year Old Fillies to be contested at a mile over whatever that fake stuff is called they use there.
#10 Spoilher
3-1
9-2
#3 Tacky Cat
7-2
5-1
#6 Emma Darling
4-1
6-1
#7 Karacuda
6-1
9-1
Many of these horse faced each other in the Cincinnati Trophy, but I'm going to the speed horse in the race as the Spoilher. #10 crushed on non-conditioned Allowance field last out at the distance and is 2 for 3 over the course. #3 winner of the C. T. didn't wait to break her maiden before winning C.T. and should be in a good position for a repeat performance. #6 Finished 3rd in C.T. after going 6 wide. The distance should be a better fit here. Michael Maker is a 30% trainer and is an automatic bet in almost every training category. #7 Has lost to the 3 and 6 before, but has run to par so would not completely surprise if she turned the tables here.
Last, but certainly never least, The Valentine Dancer Handicap 100k for California Bred Fillies and Mares 4 Years Old and Upward to be contested at 1 Mile on the Turf.
#2 Christiana's Heat
5-2
4-1
#7 Tiz A Blend
4-1
6-1
#3 Bel Air Sizzle
5-1
8-1
#11 Gambler's Justice
6-1
9-1
Just a note about this race if you've been following the Jockey's series on Animal Planet. It will be interesting to see if Aaron Gryder can stay on One Bad Kitty in the gate today. However the #2 horse has been showing excellent recent form and should be the one to beat . #7 Don't be fooled by the two recent outings by this one as she returns to her favored surface, the projected improvement should not be a surprise. #3 Disappointed on Sunshine Million day, but a return to home and a positive jockey change to Go Go Gomez may be the tonic this one needs #11 This one seems to perk up for the state bred races and the outside post could be a help. Still only 2nd time on grass and coming off a 2 month layoff so some discretion is in order here.
Well that's all for this time. I'm and hour and 40 minutes from leaving the starting gate for GP myself. Here's hoping I did better than last week. And if you want a really hot tip, just bet on the horses I didn't mention and you'll probably do alright.
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Publichandicapper.com Contest Picks for Feb. 14: St. Valentine's Day Massacre?
Ok, today I begin my first day of accountability for my contest picks as I will begin filling in that little box on the left hand side.
First, let me spell out my betting rules up front, because there is no way I can possibly know which of my contenders I will play before I can see the actual odds. In fact, there is no way I can possibly know if I am even going to play a race until I see the actual odds.
My betting rules come straight out of Steve Fiero's book "The Four Corners of Horse Investing". I highly recommend this book. You will see two sets of odds for each contender. The lower of the two is what I consider to be the fair odds, or probability of the horse to win; the 2nd set is the minimum overlay odds I require for an investment. My odds line is completely qualitative and based on experience and intuition. If I ever find a reliable method of making a mathmatically sound method of creating an odds line without using a computer program, I'll use it.
I will bet whichever horse among my contenders is overlayed.
If two horses are overlayed, I will bet the horse with the lower odds as that is the one statistically most likely to win.
If three or four horses are overlayed, I will not play the race as that is an indication that I have missed something intrinsically important.
If two horses are overlayed at odds =or> 8:1 I will split my win bet between them.
If I have made my top choice 3-2 or less and the crowd agrees with that assessment, I will pass the race rather than bet against a "Legitimate Favorite". This is not usually an issue when I have 4 solid contenders.
If any contender is < 3-2 and no other entry is < 5-1 I will pass the race rather than play against a "Prohibitive Favorite"
I almost forgot the most important rule: No overlay, no play.
Those are Steve Fiero's basic rules for win betting.
Then what I like to do is play my overlay win choice underneath the other contenders in an exacta. This is not done in every case. For instance if my top choice is just barely an overlay, it is probably not a good value to pile on more with exacta bets. But if it is my 4th choice, many times the exact payout is more than I would've won with the win bet. Use discretion with this one.
Race 9 at GP is the Hallandale Beach Hdcp
#1 Duke of Homburg
3-1
9-2
#5 Tamoborim
7-2
5-1
#8 Lime Rickey
9-2
7-1
#10 Adari
6-1
9-1
#1 ran into trouble while making move in stretch could be first with a better trip. #5 Makes 2009 debut is flattered by win last out win field containing This One's For Phil, winner of the Sunshine Millions Dash #8 Lime Rickey overachieved in the Dania Beach Handicap in finishing 2nd at 17 to 1 last out gets the always dangerous Leparoux for the trip #10 made a big closing rush to finish 4th in the DBH, extra distance may help
Tampa Bay Downs Race 10 Sam F. Davis-G3
#7 Free Country
2-1
3-1
#5 Atomic Rain
5-2
4-1
#6 Cliffy's Future
4-1
6-1
#7 Invaders descend upon Tampa to scoop up some easy Graded stakes pickings. The cream of the GP jockey colony goes to the west coast and Desormeaux on undefeated Free Country is the top pick here. #5 JR Velazquez has eschewed some pricey races at GP for what he must feel is an easy spot here aboard Atomic Rain. However AR may not get an easy lead today with front-running A.P. Cardinal in the field. #6 ships down from Aqueduct and has had 3 weeks to acclimate to Florida's warmer climate. Paco Lopez was the hot apprentice at Calder this summer and has continued to dominate as a journeyman rider at Tampa. He'll be one to watch for the future.
Santa Anita Race 9 Santa Maria Hdcp-G1
#11 Leah's Secret
3-1
9-2
#4 Mistical
7-2
5-1
#10 Visit
4-1
6-1
#7 Bsharpsonata
6-1
9-1
#11 Ended 2008 campaign with two G2 wins and started 2009 with easy win after freshining in a race the connections probably didn't even care that much about. #4 Speed stretching out is always dangerous, I'd be happy to play this one at the right odds and even happier underneath in the exacta. #10 G3 winner in GB has yet to prove mettle in States. Go Go Gomez takes the irons making automatic contender. #7 The other Pletcher entry won't have Indian Blessing to contend with here, but I think the higher contenders may be more accomplished excepting Visit.
Turf Paradise Race 8 Phoenix Gold Cup Handicap
I'm going to cop out and pass on the Turf Paradise race because I don't really know the track, trainers, horses, or Jockeys. However, if you put a gun to my head I'll take the likely chalk, Machismo followed by Northern Soldier, and White Spar. I will use these picks for the publichandicappers contest just because, but will not even think about playing this race.
That's it for today. Good Luck to all you weekend warriors out there
First, let me spell out my betting rules up front, because there is no way I can possibly know which of my contenders I will play before I can see the actual odds. In fact, there is no way I can possibly know if I am even going to play a race until I see the actual odds.
My betting rules come straight out of Steve Fiero's book "The Four Corners of Horse Investing". I highly recommend this book. You will see two sets of odds for each contender. The lower of the two is what I consider to be the fair odds, or probability of the horse to win; the 2nd set is the minimum overlay odds I require for an investment. My odds line is completely qualitative and based on experience and intuition. If I ever find a reliable method of making a mathmatically sound method of creating an odds line without using a computer program, I'll use it.
I will bet whichever horse among my contenders is overlayed.
If two horses are overlayed, I will bet the horse with the lower odds as that is the one statistically most likely to win.
If three or four horses are overlayed, I will not play the race as that is an indication that I have missed something intrinsically important.
If two horses are overlayed at odds =or> 8:1 I will split my win bet between them.
If I have made my top choice 3-2 or less and the crowd agrees with that assessment, I will pass the race rather than bet against a "Legitimate Favorite". This is not usually an issue when I have 4 solid contenders.
If any contender is < 3-2 and no other entry is < 5-1 I will pass the race rather than play against a "Prohibitive Favorite"
I almost forgot the most important rule: No overlay, no play.
Those are Steve Fiero's basic rules for win betting.
Then what I like to do is play my overlay win choice underneath the other contenders in an exacta. This is not done in every case. For instance if my top choice is just barely an overlay, it is probably not a good value to pile on more with exacta bets. But if it is my 4th choice, many times the exact payout is more than I would've won with the win bet. Use discretion with this one.
Race 9 at GP is the Hallandale Beach Hdcp
#1 Duke of Homburg
3-1
9-2
#5 Tamoborim
7-2
5-1
#8 Lime Rickey
9-2
7-1
#10 Adari
6-1
9-1
#1 ran into trouble while making move in stretch could be first with a better trip. #5 Makes 2009 debut is flattered by win last out win field containing This One's For Phil, winner of the Sunshine Millions Dash #8 Lime Rickey overachieved in the Dania Beach Handicap in finishing 2nd at 17 to 1 last out gets the always dangerous Leparoux for the trip #10 made a big closing rush to finish 4th in the DBH, extra distance may help
Tampa Bay Downs Race 10 Sam F. Davis-G3
#7 Free Country
2-1
3-1
#5 Atomic Rain
5-2
4-1
#6 Cliffy's Future
4-1
6-1
#7 Invaders descend upon Tampa to scoop up some easy Graded stakes pickings. The cream of the GP jockey colony goes to the west coast and Desormeaux on undefeated Free Country is the top pick here. #5 JR Velazquez has eschewed some pricey races at GP for what he must feel is an easy spot here aboard Atomic Rain. However AR may not get an easy lead today with front-running A.P. Cardinal in the field. #6 ships down from Aqueduct and has had 3 weeks to acclimate to Florida's warmer climate. Paco Lopez was the hot apprentice at Calder this summer and has continued to dominate as a journeyman rider at Tampa. He'll be one to watch for the future.
Santa Anita Race 9 Santa Maria Hdcp-G1
#11 Leah's Secret
3-1
9-2
#4 Mistical
7-2
5-1
#10 Visit
4-1
6-1
#7 Bsharpsonata
6-1
9-1
#11 Ended 2008 campaign with two G2 wins and started 2009 with easy win after freshining in a race the connections probably didn't even care that much about. #4 Speed stretching out is always dangerous, I'd be happy to play this one at the right odds and even happier underneath in the exacta. #10 G3 winner in GB has yet to prove mettle in States. Go Go Gomez takes the irons making automatic contender. #7 The other Pletcher entry won't have Indian Blessing to contend with here, but I think the higher contenders may be more accomplished excepting Visit.
Turf Paradise Race 8 Phoenix Gold Cup Handicap
I'm going to cop out and pass on the Turf Paradise race because I don't really know the track, trainers, horses, or Jockeys. However, if you put a gun to my head I'll take the likely chalk, Machismo followed by Northern Soldier, and White Spar. I will use these picks for the publichandicappers contest just because, but will not even think about playing this race.
That's it for today. Good Luck to all you weekend warriors out there
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Public Handicapper Quick Picks
Mundane day for racing at GP today. Could just as easily be at CRC, so I handicapped the day accordingly. Big Stakes day at Fair Grounds, one of my favorite tracks to play, with 3 PH races to pick. Add one from Santa Anita and you have the beginnning of a new contest.
I didn't win, or even come close, to winning The Winter of Our Discontent but did have a positive ROI for the contest.
Time is short and I lost my Fair Grounds analysis, long story, so you'll have to trust me.
Race 6
#8 Honest Man
3-1
9-2
#2 Good and Lucky
4-1
6-1
#1 Secret Getaway
9-2
7-1
#4 Grasshopper
5-1
8-1
Race 7
#7 Demarcation
3-1
9-2
#1 French Beret
7-2
5-1
#2 Jimmy Simms
9-2
7-1
#5 Diamond Tycoon
6-1
9-1
Race 9
#6 Friesen fire
3-1
9-2
#7 Giant Oak
7-2
5-1
#4 It Happened Again
4-1
6-1
#5 Uno Mas
6-1
9-1
And the Strub from Santa Anita where I am going against the favored Cowboy Cal (distance)
#5 Gio Ponti
3-1
9-2
#7 Nownownow
7-2
5-1
#1 Dixie Chatter
4-1
6-1
#9 Wishful Tomcat
6-1
9-1
#5 has demonstrated ability for the distance and the surface #7 I think this race sets up for closers and #7 qualifies on that count #1 Won the G1 Norfolk in '07 coming from off the pace. #9 will want to contend for the lead, but unlike Cowboy Cal, had won twice at the distance.
I didn't win, or even come close, to winning The Winter of Our Discontent but did have a positive ROI for the contest.
Time is short and I lost my Fair Grounds analysis, long story, so you'll have to trust me.
Race 6
#8 Honest Man
3-1
9-2
#2 Good and Lucky
4-1
6-1
#1 Secret Getaway
9-2
7-1
#4 Grasshopper
5-1
8-1
Race 7
#7 Demarcation
3-1
9-2
#1 French Beret
7-2
5-1
#2 Jimmy Simms
9-2
7-1
#5 Diamond Tycoon
6-1
9-1
Race 9
#6 Friesen fire
3-1
9-2
#7 Giant Oak
7-2
5-1
#4 It Happened Again
4-1
6-1
#5 Uno Mas
6-1
9-1
And the Strub from Santa Anita where I am going against the favored Cowboy Cal (distance)
#5 Gio Ponti
3-1
9-2
#7 Nownownow
7-2
5-1
#1 Dixie Chatter
4-1
6-1
#9 Wishful Tomcat
6-1
9-1
#5 has demonstrated ability for the distance and the surface #7 I think this race sets up for closers and #7 qualifies on that count #1 Won the G1 Norfolk in '07 coming from off the pace. #9 will want to contend for the lead, but unlike Cowboy Cal, had won twice at the distance.
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Sunshine Millions Lessons Learned
Nobody wins everyday, and anyone who claims to is a prevaricator. I have played the races on 12 days so far this year. I have had 6 winning days and 6 losing days. Yesterday was a losing day. I don't mind losing days so much, because there is always something to be learned from the losses. The following is what I learned yesterday.
1. If Todd Pletcher has a first time starter that cost 3.7 million at auction, Dunkirk, the horse is automatically a contender. The following description of Dunkirk's race comes straight from the results chart, "DUNKIRK rated after breaking slowly, was forced wait [sic] for room in behind a wall of horses on the turn, angled six wide at the top of the stretch, rallied to gain command inside the eight pole, then drew away."
While watching the race and keeping an eye on the horse everyone was talking about, I thought there was no way it was going to win the race. Then Dunkirk simply turned on the after-burners in that final furlong. It wasn't even close winning by an easy 5 3/4 length. Imagine if the trip for Dunkirk had been less troubled. Dunkirk paid 5.40 to win.
Todd Pletcher looking good and feeling good after Dunkirk's romp
2. Richard Dutrow is lethal 1st time with a horse. Remember that question I asked about This One's For Phil? Even though Phil was going Turf to Dirt and turning back in distance after leading the first two calls, one of my favorite angles, I still didn't think he was good enough to win, which he did paying $25.40.
Dutrow is 32% with a +0.40 ROI 1st time with a horse. This horse had two strong angles going for it that I ignored completely.
I'm sure there is more to learn, and I'll share them with you as the post mortem progresses.
As for my prognostications, 2 winners out of 4, but I'm not especially proud of that record. I totally whiffed on the Dash thanks to Phil.
In the Filly and Mare Turf at Gulfstream, Bel Air Sizzle decided she wasn't ready to go when they opened the gate spotting the field, at least, a full second head start. It's amazing she didn't finish dead last. Also the anticipated speed duel never materialized as the front-runners set reasonable fractions.
I did, at least manage to have the winners of the Santa Anita races I covered. I played Presious Passion to win in the Turf Race and Elvis Trujillo gave me a brilliant ride and PP did his best to hold 2nd giving me the consolation exacta prize.
I didn't see the 8th race, but know Georgie Boy took the honors although had I played the race I would have been on Sok Sok who did not do as well.
More later
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Sunshine Millions
Ok, apparently nobody read last post or nobody has any insight they are interested in sharing, so I'll press on.
Today is the Sunshine Millions day when California and Florida breds criss-cross the country for some pretty decent prize money.
Public Handicapper http://www.publichandicapper.com/ has chosen 4 of these races, 2 from GP and 2 from SA, as the contest races for this week. So here we go.
Gulfstream Park first
The 7th race on the card is the 250k Sunshine Million Dash for 3 year olds going 6 furlongs
Top selection is Marty Wolfson's You Luckie Mann. Breaking from the outside 11th post, he has the tactical ability to settle into a good spot. Look for You Luckie Mann to move forward in this 2nd off Layoff race.
The 2nd choice is Kelly Leak who will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux for Michael Machowsky. KL is coming off a good turf effort and won the G2 Best Pal at Del Mar.
Had to kind of stretch to find 3rd and 4th contenders in what I think is a fairly thin field but finally settled on Backbackbackgone and Southern Exchange on the inside posts.
The selections and odds line shape up like this.
#11 You Lucky Mann: 3-1 fair odds, 9-2 overlay odds
#7 Kelly Leak: 7-2 fair odds, 5-1 overlay odds
#2 Backbackbackgone: 4-1 fair odds, 6-1 overlay odds
#1 Southern Exchange: 6-1 fair odds, 9-1 overlay odds
The 8th race is the 500k Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf Stakes for 4yo and up.
Wild Promises, winner 11 time in 16 tries returns to the crosstown track after having her way at Calder Race course a month ago. However, this time may be different as this is a speed filled race and a turf course that is not particularly friendly to early speed. If she could get the lead all to herself, I'd make her the favorite, but since the fight for the early lead is going to be contentious, I think the race sets up for a closer like Bel Air Sizzle.
Bel Air Sizzle will have the lovely Chantal Sutherland (sorry for the blatant sexism, but it really didn't influence my decision, really) aboard and has come close in a couple of G2 races at Del Mar and Hollywood.
Still have to respect Wild Promises who I make to be the 2nd choice. The third choice is a pressing type runner, so we have the gamut of running styles covered here, Zee Zee trained by Richard Dutrow and ridden by Robbie Albarado. May the best running style win.
#8 Bel Air Sizzle: 9-5 fair odds, 3-1 overlay odds
#2 Wild Promises: 5-2 fair odds, 4-1 overlay odds
#5 Zee Zee overlay odds: 5-1 fair odds, 8-1 overlay odds
Moving over to the left coast.
The 500k Sunshine Millions Turf Stakes for 4 year olds and up at a mile and an eigth.
Another heavy early pace rest that should set up well for the closing Soldier's Dancer. A Grade 3 winner for David Vivian has Rafael Bejarano in the irons. We do have to respect some of the speed horses as one never knows how these races actually develop until they get run. That's why some call this gambling. Carla Gaines Lucky J. H. with Victor Espinoza on board looks impressive and will be stretching out after a couple of good sprint efforts. Presious Passion is another early speedster who has demonstrated that distance is not an issue. Elvis Trujillo (he is an up and comer you'll be hearing alot from in the next few years) gets the mount. And finally, back to another closer, mostly because on grass anything can happen and so much depends on the trip and a little bit of racing luck, don't be completely shocked if Icy Atlantic shows up in the winner's circle, I won't be.
#8 Soldier's Dancer: 3-1 fair odds, 9-2 overlay odds
#10 Lucky J. H.: 7-2 fair odds, 5-1 overlay odds
#3 Presious Passion: 9-2 fair odds, 7-1 overlay odds
#7 Icy Atlantic: 6-1 fair odds, 9-1 overlay odds
Finally, the 300k Sunshine Millions Sprint for 4 year olds and up at 6 furlongs
When I look at races like this the first thing I always look for is who has won Graded Stakes events, which, I guess, makes class one of my primary considerations. That's how I land on Georgie Boy as my number one for this race. Plus, it always seems that Garrett Gomez is winning these kinds of races. In Summation is another deserving respect. Clement Christophe always seems to have his horses ready and Rafael Bejarano doesn't have to take a back seat to anyone. Sok Sok is trained by Steve Asmussen who is bringing his primary jockey Sean Bridgmohan out from the Fair Grounds for this race. I remember last year at GP, I think it was SS Millions day, Asmussen had a horse running in a big race that was being relatively ignored at 5-1 and thinking,"This horse really shouldn't be that high in the odds." I recommended the horse to my wife, but stayed off it myself. She made a nice exacta with the Asmussen horse on top. Something similar may happen here. Finally, I can't forget my local CRC runner Yesbyjimminy who has done just about everything he can at Calder. Main knocks on him will be how well does he travel and how well does he take to the synthetic track. Could be a surprise.
#7 Georgie Boy
3-1 fair odds
9-2 overlay odds
#9 In Summation
7-2 fair odds
5-1 overlay odds
#5 Sok Sok
4-1 fair odds
6-1 overlay odds
#11 Yesbyjimminy
6-1 fair odds
9-1 overlay odds
That's it for today folks. Let me know if any of this was helpful. Good Luck.
Oh by the way the next book review will be Joseph J. Tuttle's The Tuttle Way: Applied Methodologies on "How To" Interpret the Racing Form From A Winning Horseplayer. You won't want to miss it, I promise
Today is the Sunshine Millions day when California and Florida breds criss-cross the country for some pretty decent prize money.
Public Handicapper http://www.publichandicapper.com/ has chosen 4 of these races, 2 from GP and 2 from SA, as the contest races for this week. So here we go.
Gulfstream Park first
The 7th race on the card is the 250k Sunshine Million Dash for 3 year olds going 6 furlongs
Top selection is Marty Wolfson's You Luckie Mann. Breaking from the outside 11th post, he has the tactical ability to settle into a good spot. Look for You Luckie Mann to move forward in this 2nd off Layoff race.
The 2nd choice is Kelly Leak who will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux for Michael Machowsky. KL is coming off a good turf effort and won the G2 Best Pal at Del Mar.
Had to kind of stretch to find 3rd and 4th contenders in what I think is a fairly thin field but finally settled on Backbackbackgone and Southern Exchange on the inside posts.
The selections and odds line shape up like this.
#11 You Lucky Mann: 3-1 fair odds, 9-2 overlay odds
#7 Kelly Leak: 7-2 fair odds, 5-1 overlay odds
#2 Backbackbackgone: 4-1 fair odds, 6-1 overlay odds
#1 Southern Exchange: 6-1 fair odds, 9-1 overlay odds
The 8th race is the 500k Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf Stakes for 4yo and up.
Wild Promises, winner 11 time in 16 tries returns to the crosstown track after having her way at Calder Race course a month ago. However, this time may be different as this is a speed filled race and a turf course that is not particularly friendly to early speed. If she could get the lead all to herself, I'd make her the favorite, but since the fight for the early lead is going to be contentious, I think the race sets up for a closer like Bel Air Sizzle.
Bel Air Sizzle will have the lovely Chantal Sutherland (sorry for the blatant sexism, but it really didn't influence my decision, really) aboard and has come close in a couple of G2 races at Del Mar and Hollywood.
Still have to respect Wild Promises who I make to be the 2nd choice. The third choice is a pressing type runner, so we have the gamut of running styles covered here, Zee Zee trained by Richard Dutrow and ridden by Robbie Albarado. May the best running style win.
#8 Bel Air Sizzle: 9-5 fair odds, 3-1 overlay odds
#2 Wild Promises: 5-2 fair odds, 4-1 overlay odds
#5 Zee Zee overlay odds: 5-1 fair odds, 8-1 overlay odds
Moving over to the left coast.
The 500k Sunshine Millions Turf Stakes for 4 year olds and up at a mile and an eigth.
Another heavy early pace rest that should set up well for the closing Soldier's Dancer. A Grade 3 winner for David Vivian has Rafael Bejarano in the irons. We do have to respect some of the speed horses as one never knows how these races actually develop until they get run. That's why some call this gambling. Carla Gaines Lucky J. H. with Victor Espinoza on board looks impressive and will be stretching out after a couple of good sprint efforts. Presious Passion is another early speedster who has demonstrated that distance is not an issue. Elvis Trujillo (he is an up and comer you'll be hearing alot from in the next few years) gets the mount. And finally, back to another closer, mostly because on grass anything can happen and so much depends on the trip and a little bit of racing luck, don't be completely shocked if Icy Atlantic shows up in the winner's circle, I won't be.
#8 Soldier's Dancer: 3-1 fair odds, 9-2 overlay odds
#10 Lucky J. H.: 7-2 fair odds, 5-1 overlay odds
#3 Presious Passion: 9-2 fair odds, 7-1 overlay odds
#7 Icy Atlantic: 6-1 fair odds, 9-1 overlay odds
Finally, the 300k Sunshine Millions Sprint for 4 year olds and up at 6 furlongs
When I look at races like this the first thing I always look for is who has won Graded Stakes events, which, I guess, makes class one of my primary considerations. That's how I land on Georgie Boy as my number one for this race. Plus, it always seems that Garrett Gomez is winning these kinds of races. In Summation is another deserving respect. Clement Christophe always seems to have his horses ready and Rafael Bejarano doesn't have to take a back seat to anyone. Sok Sok is trained by Steve Asmussen who is bringing his primary jockey Sean Bridgmohan out from the Fair Grounds for this race. I remember last year at GP, I think it was SS Millions day, Asmussen had a horse running in a big race that was being relatively ignored at 5-1 and thinking,"This horse really shouldn't be that high in the odds." I recommended the horse to my wife, but stayed off it myself. She made a nice exacta with the Asmussen horse on top. Something similar may happen here. Finally, I can't forget my local CRC runner Yesbyjimminy who has done just about everything he can at Calder. Main knocks on him will be how well does he travel and how well does he take to the synthetic track. Could be a surprise.
#7 Georgie Boy
3-1 fair odds
9-2 overlay odds
#9 In Summation
7-2 fair odds
5-1 overlay odds
#5 Sok Sok
4-1 fair odds
6-1 overlay odds
#11 Yesbyjimminy
6-1 fair odds
9-1 overlay odds
That's it for today folks. Let me know if any of this was helpful. Good Luck.
Oh by the way the next book review will be Joseph J. Tuttle's The Tuttle Way: Applied Methodologies on "How To" Interpret the Racing Form From A Winning Horseplayer. You won't want to miss it, I promise
Friday, December 26, 2008
Father-Son Day
My son is home for winter break from the University of Miami, and I have somehow managed to con him into spending time with me at Calder today. He's not a racing fan. I think the pace of the game is too slow for today's generation. I think simulcasting helps liven the pace up with more races to play so long as you don't go over board. However, the problem is the occassional race goer who is not really into racing is probably not participating in the simulcast pools except for, perhaps, the big races like the Ky. Derby and such.
Anyhow, I think there are some playable races at CRC and Fairgrounds today and they will be the focus of my attention. I'll give my son $20.00 and all the advice he asks for and see if I can't school him for a greater appreciation of the sport.
Public handicapper.com is having there weekly contest today at Santa Anita's opener rather than the usual Saturday. The following are my picks for today's contest races.
6th Race the California Breeder's Championship for 2yo's bred in California
#6 Lordgivemealift
3-1
9-2
#2 Feisty Suances
7-2
5-1
#4 Unbridled Roman
9-2
7-1
#6 2yo races go to the swiftest and this need to lead type will either wire the field or collapse in a steaming heap of horse manure #2 has won all 3 efforts and gets better everytime #4 won debut race at near par speed and figures to be faster if can handle the stepped up competition #11 was favored to beat 3 other entrants in this race and gets a chance for redemption here.
The G3 Sir Beaufort Stakes
#12 Gio Ponti
2-1
3-1
#2 Sky Cape
9-2
7-1
#1 Liberian Freighter
5-1
8-1
#9 El Gato Malo
6-1
9-1
#12 Most accomplished on Turf of field, but the outside post could hurt #2 has won before coming off a layoff including out running the speedy #1 who has speed early but will probably be pressured by others #9 Tough spot for first on grass, but too good to ignore; however, remember Macho Again from last week. I don't know what that horse was doing on the turf, but he certainly didn't run the race of a well intended horse and the same may be true of El Gato Malo.
The Grade 1 Malibu Stakes
#7 Georgie Boy
3-1
9-2
#1 Into Mischief
7-2
5-1
#2 Colonel John
4-1
6-1
#3 Bob Black Jack
6-1
9-1
#7 A proven G1 winner at the distance and on this track with the highest fig for the distance #1 Another proven G1 winner at the distance who has never finished worst than 2nd #2 ML 2nd choice with loads of ability but has only raced once at this distance in breaking his maiden. #3 Another sprint specialist, but probably a notch below the other 3
MC25000 for 3yo and up
#5 Squire Trelawny
#13 Six Pack Man
#8 Mystification
I don't know why they chose this race for the contest. I don't play these races and didn't want to waste time handicapping it so I hijacked the picks from the leading editor's picks for contest purposes. I will personally pass this race.
Oh and FYI, Marty Wolfson has entered Golden Spikes in the Malibu. I personally don't think that Golden Spikes is a G1 calibur horse, but Marty has a horse entered at Calder today, so I will be looking to see if he makes an appearance in the paddock. If Marty isn't here I am going to guess that he is in Santa Anita. Remember, he is afraid of flying and only travels when extremely confident. If he is not here I'll be watching TVG closely for a shot of him at Santa Anita. A small wager on a long horse never hurt anyone.
Anyhow, I think there are some playable races at CRC and Fairgrounds today and they will be the focus of my attention. I'll give my son $20.00 and all the advice he asks for and see if I can't school him for a greater appreciation of the sport.
Public handicapper.com is having there weekly contest today at Santa Anita's opener rather than the usual Saturday. The following are my picks for today's contest races.
6th Race the California Breeder's Championship for 2yo's bred in California
#6 Lordgivemealift
3-1
9-2
#2 Feisty Suances
7-2
5-1
#4 Unbridled Roman
9-2
7-1
#6 2yo races go to the swiftest and this need to lead type will either wire the field or collapse in a steaming heap of horse manure #2 has won all 3 efforts and gets better everytime #4 won debut race at near par speed and figures to be faster if can handle the stepped up competition #11 was favored to beat 3 other entrants in this race and gets a chance for redemption here.
The G3 Sir Beaufort Stakes
#12 Gio Ponti
2-1
3-1
#2 Sky Cape
9-2
7-1
#1 Liberian Freighter
5-1
8-1
#9 El Gato Malo
6-1
9-1
#12 Most accomplished on Turf of field, but the outside post could hurt #2 has won before coming off a layoff including out running the speedy #1 who has speed early but will probably be pressured by others #9 Tough spot for first on grass, but too good to ignore; however, remember Macho Again from last week. I don't know what that horse was doing on the turf, but he certainly didn't run the race of a well intended horse and the same may be true of El Gato Malo.
The Grade 1 Malibu Stakes
#7 Georgie Boy
3-1
9-2
#1 Into Mischief
7-2
5-1
#2 Colonel John
4-1
6-1
#3 Bob Black Jack
6-1
9-1
#7 A proven G1 winner at the distance and on this track with the highest fig for the distance #1 Another proven G1 winner at the distance who has never finished worst than 2nd #2 ML 2nd choice with loads of ability but has only raced once at this distance in breaking his maiden. #3 Another sprint specialist, but probably a notch below the other 3
MC25000 for 3yo and up
#5 Squire Trelawny
#13 Six Pack Man
#8 Mystification
I don't know why they chose this race for the contest. I don't play these races and didn't want to waste time handicapping it so I hijacked the picks from the leading editor's picks for contest purposes. I will personally pass this race.
Oh and FYI, Marty Wolfson has entered Golden Spikes in the Malibu. I personally don't think that Golden Spikes is a G1 calibur horse, but Marty has a horse entered at Calder today, so I will be looking to see if he makes an appearance in the paddock. If Marty isn't here I am going to guess that he is in Santa Anita. Remember, he is afraid of flying and only travels when extremely confident. If he is not here I'll be watching TVG closely for a shot of him at Santa Anita. A small wager on a long horse never hurt anyone.
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