Derby and Oaks Prep Races

Today is probably the last day for serious Kentucky Derby contenders and wannabes to prep for what remains the most important race for 3 year olds in North America if not the world.

I really wish I had some stunning upsets to predict, but I just can't see it happening. But the good news is, Brisnet's The Wizard would be charging you hard earned money for the same picks you will likely get here for free.

By the way, speaking of free. The information I used to make these selections was obtained from the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance page at http://www.tbablogs.com/. Be sure to pay them a visit. There are many great horse bloggers there and plenty of racing information and selections besides my own. Check them out

The first race is actually a prep for the Kentucky Oaks featuring 3 graduates from the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies. The G1 Ashland Stakes.

I think Beautician coming 2nd off the layoff for Kenneth McPeek out of the G3 Honeybee looks to be a strong contender after finishing 2nd in the aforementioned race. The comment line has Beautician boxed in at the 1/4 pole in the Honeybee. I look for her to move forward under Robby Albarado for this race.

However, Beautician will have to overcome the winner of the Juvenile Fillies, She Be Wild, if she wants to wear the Ashland crown. She Be Wild is trained by Wayne Catalano who has done just fine after getting out from under the thumb of Frank Calabrese. In fact, Catalano has won with 27% of last 37 graded stakes entries and is 37% with the beaten favorite the last 231 times this situation has occurred. With statistics like these and a strong horse under Jose Lezcano, there is no way to count She Be Wild out of the running.

She Be Wild's last race was the G2 Forward Gal on Jan. 31 at Gulfstream where she basically pulled a merry-go-round job in finishing 5th of 11. I'm sure Catalano will be looking for more this time around.

The other BC Filly Juvie grad is Negligee. Coming off a 4 month layoff I'm expecting this may be a conditioner and a true prep for the Oaks for Negligee. However, trainer Terranova is 16% off layoffs of greater than 90 days with a +ROI. Still I would look elsewhere here.

One horse that peeked my interest here as a possible long shot play is Protesting trained by Shug McGaughey. She did not show much in two allowance efforts at Gulfstream but the 95 Brisnet speed figure could but her right in the thick of it if she can duplicate or improve off that race and she does have win over the surface.

Still, I'm not going out on a limb here and will stick with and probably not play the chalk with

4 Beautician
5 She Be Wild
3 Negligee

The G3 Illinois Derby is easily the least prestigious of the 3 Derby preps the other two being the Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby, but it may be the most interesting of the three.

On a track that favors speed and the rail and a field which is generally lacking in flashy early speed, American Lion could not have drawn better breaking from the rail gate. But...I am looking for the combo of Prado and Dutrow on board the stalker Yawanna Twist to be first under the wire. A conviction which will grow even stronger should Awesome Act flatter the top choice 30 minutes earlier in the Wood.

Yawanna Twist has the best figures of all contenders. The fact is his worst lifetime figure is equal to the best of any other in the race excepting Backtalk. Twisty has the tactical ability to stay close to American Lion and possibly Boulder Creek.

American Lion has to be at least the 2nd choice with all the favoring factors the Weasel see's for him in this race. I expect to see him on the lead early, so he won't have to worry about having dirt kicked in his face.

Turf Melody will have to move forward out of the Gotham to beat Gotham runner up Yawanna Twist, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. Turf Melody looks to be a horse on the improve, and 3 year olds can make quantum leaps forward this time of year. You might be able to get a square price on this contender

Backtalk has the look of one of those horses who is fierce in the morning and a asleep when the money is on the line. He did win his last, but notice his figures decline as the distance increases. The Weasel would be surprised to see this one in the Winner's Circle.

4. Yawanna Twist
1. American Lion
5. Turf Melody

It is easy to look at the Wood and think it is a 2 horse race between Eskendereya and Awesome Act. But Ramon Dominquez has been red hot at the Big A and Schoolyard Dreams may have what it takes and the motivation to pull off the upset for trainer Derek Ryan.

Still, Eskendereya dominated the Fountain of Youth field and should have no problem stalking the cheap speed in the race. Gotham winner Awesome Act will bring up the rear early but will have plenty of pace to run at late. Look for Awesome Act to be chasing down either Eskendereya or Schoolyard Dreams in the stretch with one set of backers praying for the wire while the other set encourages Julien Leparoux to get into that 2 horse.

I have to mention Jackson Bend. He's a small horse with a large heart. I just don't think he can get the distance at this level and would like to see him returned to sprinting once the Derby dreams are finally dashed. The one classic race he may do well in is the Preakness due to the tight turns which can favor a smaller horse.

3. Eskendereya
2. Awesome Act
4. Schoolyard Dreams

At last there is the Santa Anita Derby. Lookin At Lucky is the obvious favorite, his race in the Rebel at Oaklawn was nothing short of amazing. If you missed it, find a replay to watch and you'll understand why Lucky is a top Derby contender. But listening to Bob Baffert in a recent interview, the Weasel has to wonder how well intentioned Lucky is for this race. Bob was all about how the goal was to get Lucky through the race in one piece and set up for the big prize being the KY Derby, of course.

This makes The Weasel want to take a shot at throwing Lucky out of the Winner's Circle and look for alternatives who may want it more here.

If we are going to upset Lucky, The Weasel actually likes two Cali breds to perform the feat. Up until the San Felipe, Caracortado was unbeaten in his career. Sidney's Candy won the race wire to wire. The comment line says Sidney was rated, meaning no pressure on the lead. This time may be different. Who's Up, to Sidney's inside has some early foot and could make Sidney work a little harder for that lead this time around.

Alphie's Bet made a quantum leap forward to win the G3 Sham last out and is another that would benefit from a contentious early pace. So here is the way The Weasel see's this one.

10 Alphie's Bet
6 Caracortado
4 Sidney's Candy

Lookin at Lucky will be there somewhere, maybe even on top. Don't be a chalk eating weasel.

The Weasel plans to watch these races at home courtesy of TVG, HRTV or Twinspires TV if I have to. Tomorrow will be a day at the races, grazing on the excellent buffet of the Ten Palms Restaurant at Gulfstream Park with the beautiful Mrs. Weasel.

Speaking of GP. Look for these jockeys to get hot now that the big guns have moved north. Paco Lopez, Joe Bravo (as long as he stays), Manoel Cruz, Luis Saez, Jose Lezcano, and, of course, Elvis Trujillo.

I'm Off!