That's my advice to the connections of the hardest working 3 yo colt in racing, Jackson Bend. Not that they need my advice. Nick Zito has more experience in his little toe than I have in my super-sized body when it comes to placing horses in classic races.
However, it seems to me that Jackson Bend has been chasing Eskendereya up and down the East Coast and clearly seems to be 2nd best to the talented son of Giant's Causeway. Zito implies in an interview on Bloodhorse.com http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56470/jackson-bend-in-fast-workout-at-churchill that JB will need someone to make a mistake.
I would not subject my horse to that cavalry charge unless I thought his chances of succeeding were better than depending on someone else to make an error. Rather, I would point my horse toward a race on a track with tight turns that may favor a horse that is small in stature, but perhaps more agile than his larger counterparts. A track like say.....Pimlico?
Pleasant Prince will run in the G3 Cliff's Edge Derby Trial on April 24 in a last ditch effort to get in the Derby. The winner of this race gains an automatic berth in the Derby. Not exactly the usual path to the Derby winner's circle. Owner Ken Ramsey points out the last horse to pull off the Derby Trial/Derby exacta was Tim Tam in 1958.
Looking at two stakes races from Keeneland today. First up is Race 8, the 5 1/2 furlong (turf) Giant's Causeway for fillies and mares 3 and up
This race is guaranteed to have a lot of pace with 4 need to lead types running. Therefore the logical choice will be an off the pace type and West Ocean, trained by Todd Pletcher, fits the bill perfectly. Winner by 5 lengths in the Bienville at the Fairgrounds last out the 4 yo filly has really awakened since cutting back to sprint distances. Statistic to note is rider JJ Castellano is winning at a 41% clip over the last 60 days when riding for Pletcher.
No turf sprint stakes would be complete without an entry or two from Linda Rice. She has 2 in this race each making their 2010 debuts. Ahvee's Destiny has been training at Palm Meadows in Florida and with speed sitting on the rail has to be considered dangerous. But the stronger of the two is Canadian Ballet who hasn't raced since her Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint effort. Canadian Ballet has also been training at the Florida training track. If the pace of this race didn't promise to be so torrid, this filly could easily be the top selection.
Third choice is Libor Lady. Toss her last on the main track at Santa Anita. This 5 year old mare is 7 for 11 at the distance and never out of the money. Again, only the pace keeps this one down from being a top choice.
In summary, the picks and odds needed to play.
7. West Ocean 2/1
8. Canadian Ballet 5/1
3 Libor Lady 7/1
The other race I'm covering today is the G2 Coolmore Lexington Stakes for three year olds
This race shapes up to be very competitive and a long price will be no surprise. However, I think I have been able to narrow the field down to the main contenders.
My top pick for the race is the horse breaking from pp1, Krypton. Krypton won a 7f allowance for non-winners of one other than last out in decisive fashion. Since there are no real giant killers in this race, only 1 previous G3 winner, I am not overly concerned about the lack of stakes experience here. Key stats for Kypton: Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is 25% with a positive ROI going sprint to route and the Alan Garcia/McLaughlin combination is 38% with a positive ROI over the last 60 days.
Second choice Lonesome Street comes out of a 2nd place effort in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park. The comment line shows some trouble at 7/8th. Key for Lonesome Street is the positive jockey switch to Julien Leparoux. Stats of note: Trainer Michael Maker is 30% on all-weather surfaces (+ROI) and 28% when his horses are running routes (+ROI).
The 3rd choice is the lone speed horse in the race Exhi trained by Todd Pletcher. Exhi is the winner of the Rushaway Stakes and is a sure bet to be leading at the 1/4 and 1/2 poles. The question is whether or not the others will be able to reel him in. Last time out, Lonesome Street could not make up the ground. This time may be different, or, it may not.
Summary and needed odds
1 Krypton 3/1
7 Lonesome Street 9/2
8 Exhi 5/1
Hey be sure to check out the other bloggers of the TBA. We've made it easy for you with the links on the side of the page.
And while you're there, visit the TBA facebook page as well.
Showing posts with label Keeneland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Keeneland. Show all posts
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Easter Sunday at Gulfstream Park
Have you ever noticed when watching a college football game, or even a high school game for that matter, the game can be totally entertaining even with the full realization that you are not watching the best athletes compete? That was feeling today at Gulfstream Park where there was not a single stakes race and the highest level race was an Allowance for non-winners of 3.
Yet, the racing was superbly competitive. Combine the racing with an excellent Easter Day brunch, the Weasel and his Mrs. had an excellent day at the races.
Today the Weasel played 7 of the 9 races on the card. Because we had a friend with us and it was a more social occassion than most trips to the track, I used a simple wagering strategy for all 7 races. 1 betting unit to win and 3 betting units on the same horse selected based on perceived value. This turned out to be an ingenious strategy on this day as the Weasel cashed on 5 of the 7 wagers laid, all place bets. Go figure.
As for yesterday's action. Eskendereya did all you could expect of him unless you are some kind of chronic skeptic. Why blame the horse for being so superior to his competition? Lookin At Lucky apparently disappointed Bob Baffert, from what I've read, but not the Weasel who warned you off this short priced Derby hopeful.
Both American Lion and Sidney's Candy were able to get easy early leads all the way to the wire punching their Derby tickets in the process. We'll see if they are allowed to set such easy fractions when the real honors of the "Greatest 2 minutes in sports" is upon them. Yawanna Twist impressed the Weasel in his 2nd place effort as did Jackson Bend who surprised me a little bit in holding place in the Wood. I still don't think he can win the Derby.
Totally whiffed on the Ashland as Beautician ran more like a Calder claimer in late September than a Breeder's Cup contender. That's racing for you.
Be sure to check out the other TBA blogs. You can find a list of them to the left of this article. You will get more free and valuable information about the KY Derby and racing in general for free than you could ever pay for from the so-called experts at DRF, Brisnet, or anywhere else you care to look. I've looked, I know.
That's all for now. Gotta go back to work. At least I have work to go back to, for now.
I'm Off
Yet, the racing was superbly competitive. Combine the racing with an excellent Easter Day brunch, the Weasel and his Mrs. had an excellent day at the races.
Today the Weasel played 7 of the 9 races on the card. Because we had a friend with us and it was a more social occassion than most trips to the track, I used a simple wagering strategy for all 7 races. 1 betting unit to win and 3 betting units on the same horse selected based on perceived value. This turned out to be an ingenious strategy on this day as the Weasel cashed on 5 of the 7 wagers laid, all place bets. Go figure.
As for yesterday's action. Eskendereya did all you could expect of him unless you are some kind of chronic skeptic. Why blame the horse for being so superior to his competition? Lookin At Lucky apparently disappointed Bob Baffert, from what I've read, but not the Weasel who warned you off this short priced Derby hopeful.
Both American Lion and Sidney's Candy were able to get easy early leads all the way to the wire punching their Derby tickets in the process. We'll see if they are allowed to set such easy fractions when the real honors of the "Greatest 2 minutes in sports" is upon them. Yawanna Twist impressed the Weasel in his 2nd place effort as did Jackson Bend who surprised me a little bit in holding place in the Wood. I still don't think he can win the Derby.
Totally whiffed on the Ashland as Beautician ran more like a Calder claimer in late September than a Breeder's Cup contender. That's racing for you.
Be sure to check out the other TBA blogs. You can find a list of them to the left of this article. You will get more free and valuable information about the KY Derby and racing in general for free than you could ever pay for from the so-called experts at DRF, Brisnet, or anywhere else you care to look. I've looked, I know.
That's all for now. Gotta go back to work. At least I have work to go back to, for now.
I'm Off
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Derby and Oaks Prep Races
Today is probably the last day for serious Kentucky Derby contenders and wannabes to prep for what remains the most important race for 3 year olds in North America if not the world.
I really wish I had some stunning upsets to predict, but I just can't see it happening. But the good news is, Brisnet's The Wizard would be charging you hard earned money for the same picks you will likely get here for free.
By the way, speaking of free. The information I used to make these selections was obtained from the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance page at http://www.tbablogs.com/. Be sure to pay them a visit. There are many great horse bloggers there and plenty of racing information and selections besides my own. Check them out
The first race is actually a prep for the Kentucky Oaks featuring 3 graduates from the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies. The G1 Ashland Stakes.
I think Beautician coming 2nd off the layoff for Kenneth McPeek out of the G3 Honeybee looks to be a strong contender after finishing 2nd in the aforementioned race. The comment line has Beautician boxed in at the 1/4 pole in the Honeybee. I look for her to move forward under Robby Albarado for this race.
However, Beautician will have to overcome the winner of the Juvenile Fillies, She Be Wild, if she wants to wear the Ashland crown. She Be Wild is trained by Wayne Catalano who has done just fine after getting out from under the thumb of Frank Calabrese. In fact, Catalano has won with 27% of last 37 graded stakes entries and is 37% with the beaten favorite the last 231 times this situation has occurred. With statistics like these and a strong horse under Jose Lezcano, there is no way to count She Be Wild out of the running.
She Be Wild's last race was the G2 Forward Gal on Jan. 31 at Gulfstream where she basically pulled a merry-go-round job in finishing 5th of 11. I'm sure Catalano will be looking for more this time around.
The other BC Filly Juvie grad is Negligee. Coming off a 4 month layoff I'm expecting this may be a conditioner and a true prep for the Oaks for Negligee. However, trainer Terranova is 16% off layoffs of greater than 90 days with a +ROI. Still I would look elsewhere here.
One horse that peeked my interest here as a possible long shot play is Protesting trained by Shug McGaughey. She did not show much in two allowance efforts at Gulfstream but the 95 Brisnet speed figure could but her right in the thick of it if she can duplicate or improve off that race and she does have win over the surface.
Still, I'm not going out on a limb here and will stick with and probably not play the chalk with
4 Beautician
5 She Be Wild
3 Negligee
The G3 Illinois Derby is easily the least prestigious of the 3 Derby preps the other two being the Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby, but it may be the most interesting of the three.
On a track that favors speed and the rail and a field which is generally lacking in flashy early speed, American Lion could not have drawn better breaking from the rail gate. But...I am looking for the combo of Prado and Dutrow on board the stalker Yawanna Twist to be first under the wire. A conviction which will grow even stronger should Awesome Act flatter the top choice 30 minutes earlier in the Wood.
Yawanna Twist has the best figures of all contenders. The fact is his worst lifetime figure is equal to the best of any other in the race excepting Backtalk. Twisty has the tactical ability to stay close to American Lion and possibly Boulder Creek.
American Lion has to be at least the 2nd choice with all the favoring factors the Weasel see's for him in this race. I expect to see him on the lead early, so he won't have to worry about having dirt kicked in his face.
Turf Melody will have to move forward out of the Gotham to beat Gotham runner up Yawanna Twist, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. Turf Melody looks to be a horse on the improve, and 3 year olds can make quantum leaps forward this time of year. You might be able to get a square price on this contender
Backtalk has the look of one of those horses who is fierce in the morning and a asleep when the money is on the line. He did win his last, but notice his figures decline as the distance increases. The Weasel would be surprised to see this one in the Winner's Circle.
4. Yawanna Twist
1. American Lion
5. Turf Melody
It is easy to look at the Wood and think it is a 2 horse race between Eskendereya and Awesome Act. But Ramon Dominquez has been red hot at the Big A and Schoolyard Dreams may have what it takes and the motivation to pull off the upset for trainer Derek Ryan.
Still, Eskendereya dominated the Fountain of Youth field and should have no problem stalking the cheap speed in the race. Gotham winner Awesome Act will bring up the rear early but will have plenty of pace to run at late. Look for Awesome Act to be chasing down either Eskendereya or Schoolyard Dreams in the stretch with one set of backers praying for the wire while the other set encourages Julien Leparoux to get into that 2 horse.
I have to mention Jackson Bend. He's a small horse with a large heart. I just don't think he can get the distance at this level and would like to see him returned to sprinting once the Derby dreams are finally dashed. The one classic race he may do well in is the Preakness due to the tight turns which can favor a smaller horse.
3. Eskendereya
2. Awesome Act
4. Schoolyard Dreams
At last there is the Santa Anita Derby. Lookin At Lucky is the obvious favorite, his race in the Rebel at Oaklawn was nothing short of amazing. If you missed it, find a replay to watch and you'll understand why Lucky is a top Derby contender. But listening to Bob Baffert in a recent interview, the Weasel has to wonder how well intentioned Lucky is for this race. Bob was all about how the goal was to get Lucky through the race in one piece and set up for the big prize being the KY Derby, of course.
This makes The Weasel want to take a shot at throwing Lucky out of the Winner's Circle and look for alternatives who may want it more here.
If we are going to upset Lucky, The Weasel actually likes two Cali breds to perform the feat. Up until the San Felipe, Caracortado was unbeaten in his career. Sidney's Candy won the race wire to wire. The comment line says Sidney was rated, meaning no pressure on the lead. This time may be different. Who's Up, to Sidney's inside has some early foot and could make Sidney work a little harder for that lead this time around.
Alphie's Bet made a quantum leap forward to win the G3 Sham last out and is another that would benefit from a contentious early pace. So here is the way The Weasel see's this one.
10 Alphie's Bet
6 Caracortado
4 Sidney's Candy
Lookin at Lucky will be there somewhere, maybe even on top. Don't be a chalk eating weasel.
The Weasel plans to watch these races at home courtesy of TVG, HRTV or Twinspires TV if I have to. Tomorrow will be a day at the races, grazing on the excellent buffet of the Ten Palms Restaurant at Gulfstream Park with the beautiful Mrs. Weasel.
Speaking of GP. Look for these jockeys to get hot now that the big guns have moved north. Paco Lopez, Joe Bravo (as long as he stays), Manoel Cruz, Luis Saez, Jose Lezcano, and, of course, Elvis Trujillo.
I'm Off!
I really wish I had some stunning upsets to predict, but I just can't see it happening. But the good news is, Brisnet's The Wizard would be charging you hard earned money for the same picks you will likely get here for free.
By the way, speaking of free. The information I used to make these selections was obtained from the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance page at http://www.tbablogs.com/. Be sure to pay them a visit. There are many great horse bloggers there and plenty of racing information and selections besides my own. Check them out
The first race is actually a prep for the Kentucky Oaks featuring 3 graduates from the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies. The G1 Ashland Stakes.
I think Beautician coming 2nd off the layoff for Kenneth McPeek out of the G3 Honeybee looks to be a strong contender after finishing 2nd in the aforementioned race. The comment line has Beautician boxed in at the 1/4 pole in the Honeybee. I look for her to move forward under Robby Albarado for this race.
However, Beautician will have to overcome the winner of the Juvenile Fillies, She Be Wild, if she wants to wear the Ashland crown. She Be Wild is trained by Wayne Catalano who has done just fine after getting out from under the thumb of Frank Calabrese. In fact, Catalano has won with 27% of last 37 graded stakes entries and is 37% with the beaten favorite the last 231 times this situation has occurred. With statistics like these and a strong horse under Jose Lezcano, there is no way to count She Be Wild out of the running.
She Be Wild's last race was the G2 Forward Gal on Jan. 31 at Gulfstream where she basically pulled a merry-go-round job in finishing 5th of 11. I'm sure Catalano will be looking for more this time around.
The other BC Filly Juvie grad is Negligee. Coming off a 4 month layoff I'm expecting this may be a conditioner and a true prep for the Oaks for Negligee. However, trainer Terranova is 16% off layoffs of greater than 90 days with a +ROI. Still I would look elsewhere here.
One horse that peeked my interest here as a possible long shot play is Protesting trained by Shug McGaughey. She did not show much in two allowance efforts at Gulfstream but the 95 Brisnet speed figure could but her right in the thick of it if she can duplicate or improve off that race and she does have win over the surface.
Still, I'm not going out on a limb here and will stick with and probably not play the chalk with
4 Beautician
5 She Be Wild
3 Negligee
The G3 Illinois Derby is easily the least prestigious of the 3 Derby preps the other two being the Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby, but it may be the most interesting of the three.
On a track that favors speed and the rail and a field which is generally lacking in flashy early speed, American Lion could not have drawn better breaking from the rail gate. But...I am looking for the combo of Prado and Dutrow on board the stalker Yawanna Twist to be first under the wire. A conviction which will grow even stronger should Awesome Act flatter the top choice 30 minutes earlier in the Wood.
Yawanna Twist has the best figures of all contenders. The fact is his worst lifetime figure is equal to the best of any other in the race excepting Backtalk. Twisty has the tactical ability to stay close to American Lion and possibly Boulder Creek.
American Lion has to be at least the 2nd choice with all the favoring factors the Weasel see's for him in this race. I expect to see him on the lead early, so he won't have to worry about having dirt kicked in his face.
Turf Melody will have to move forward out of the Gotham to beat Gotham runner up Yawanna Twist, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. Turf Melody looks to be a horse on the improve, and 3 year olds can make quantum leaps forward this time of year. You might be able to get a square price on this contender
Backtalk has the look of one of those horses who is fierce in the morning and a asleep when the money is on the line. He did win his last, but notice his figures decline as the distance increases. The Weasel would be surprised to see this one in the Winner's Circle.
4. Yawanna Twist
1. American Lion
5. Turf Melody
It is easy to look at the Wood and think it is a 2 horse race between Eskendereya and Awesome Act. But Ramon Dominquez has been red hot at the Big A and Schoolyard Dreams may have what it takes and the motivation to pull off the upset for trainer Derek Ryan.
Still, Eskendereya dominated the Fountain of Youth field and should have no problem stalking the cheap speed in the race. Gotham winner Awesome Act will bring up the rear early but will have plenty of pace to run at late. Look for Awesome Act to be chasing down either Eskendereya or Schoolyard Dreams in the stretch with one set of backers praying for the wire while the other set encourages Julien Leparoux to get into that 2 horse.
I have to mention Jackson Bend. He's a small horse with a large heart. I just don't think he can get the distance at this level and would like to see him returned to sprinting once the Derby dreams are finally dashed. The one classic race he may do well in is the Preakness due to the tight turns which can favor a smaller horse.
3. Eskendereya
2. Awesome Act
4. Schoolyard Dreams
At last there is the Santa Anita Derby. Lookin At Lucky is the obvious favorite, his race in the Rebel at Oaklawn was nothing short of amazing. If you missed it, find a replay to watch and you'll understand why Lucky is a top Derby contender. But listening to Bob Baffert in a recent interview, the Weasel has to wonder how well intentioned Lucky is for this race. Bob was all about how the goal was to get Lucky through the race in one piece and set up for the big prize being the KY Derby, of course.
This makes The Weasel want to take a shot at throwing Lucky out of the Winner's Circle and look for alternatives who may want it more here.
If we are going to upset Lucky, The Weasel actually likes two Cali breds to perform the feat. Up until the San Felipe, Caracortado was unbeaten in his career. Sidney's Candy won the race wire to wire. The comment line says Sidney was rated, meaning no pressure on the lead. This time may be different. Who's Up, to Sidney's inside has some early foot and could make Sidney work a little harder for that lead this time around.
Alphie's Bet made a quantum leap forward to win the G3 Sham last out and is another that would benefit from a contentious early pace. So here is the way The Weasel see's this one.
10 Alphie's Bet
6 Caracortado
4 Sidney's Candy
Lookin at Lucky will be there somewhere, maybe even on top. Don't be a chalk eating weasel.
The Weasel plans to watch these races at home courtesy of TVG, HRTV or Twinspires TV if I have to. Tomorrow will be a day at the races, grazing on the excellent buffet of the Ten Palms Restaurant at Gulfstream Park with the beautiful Mrs. Weasel.
Speaking of GP. Look for these jockeys to get hot now that the big guns have moved north. Paco Lopez, Joe Bravo (as long as he stays), Manoel Cruz, Luis Saez, Jose Lezcano, and, of course, Elvis Trujillo.
I'm Off!
Monday, March 29, 2010
I'm Back
So sorry to have been away so long. Could make up alot of excuses and they'd all be true. The simple fact is that the muse had left me. Now I'm feeling more a-mused.
As much as I like to complain about how Gulfstream Park management does everything on the cheap, and they do, I guess I have to give them a little credit for Florida Derby day.
Gulfsteam Park was slammed. They do not give attendance or handle figures, but in speaking with a worker at the track I learned the crowd was estimated to be about 23,000. Betting lines were 10 minutes long. I was told that the park had installed an extral 150 betting machines for the occassion. Again, trying to do it on the cheap. Really, how many people who go to the track once or twice a year for the big days go anywhere near the betting machines?
I prefer the machines, but on days like Fl. Derby day, there's no way. It will always be my luck to wind up behind some 0.10 cent super player entering every possible combo one at a time. Of course, most times that will be my good luck.
To the track's credit they did extend the time between races once they realized the size of the crowd which had showed up on that perfect South Florida day. One last thing I learned from the track worker is that there are plans to build a parking garage and extend the grandstand down the north side of the main building all the way down to the beginning of the stretch. It won't be this year or the next, but maybe in a couple of years, we can once again contemplate the possibility of the Breeder's Cup returning to Florida.
Had the muse had struck me sooner, my once loyal readers would've known my top pick for the race was the 29-1 Pleasant Prince. Yes it is true. Talk about bad beats! I figured the race had alot of early speed in it with most of it to the outside and didn't set up well for the favorite, Rule. I looked to the inside for likely horses to come from off the pace and settled on the Wesley Ward trained Pleasant Prince. Ice Box was certainly a contender as an off the pace contender, but it is well known that the outside posts don't do well at the 9 furlong distance. The 12 hole is nearly impossible except for Big Brown. Unfortunately for me, Ice Box was breaking from the 8th gate.
I have watched that race over and over and am still not convinced I lost. I'm still looking for the photo if anyone can direct me. That is the only way I will be convinced.
I have read that we (TBA that is) are now associating ourselves with Thorofan. This is a move the Weasel definitely is in favor of being a charter member of the Thorofan organization. So far, I can't see how my dues to Thorofan have done anything than help finance cocktail parties for the Saratoga chapter, but hope springs eternal that something good will eventually come out the organization.
The Horseplayer's Association of North America seems to have lost some momentum this year although I do remember they are having a day at Keeneland for members to assemble. If they send me another E-Mail telling me when it is, I'll let you know. That is an organization the Weasel certainly endorses. I hope the founders have not burned out. They tried very hard to make a difference last year. But you know, organizing horse player has got to be alot like herding cats.
That's it for now. Hopefully, I'll get some momentum of my own going and find another 18-1 Bullsbay or 29-1 Pleasant Prince for you to lay some dough on and cheer for.
I'm Off
As much as I like to complain about how Gulfstream Park management does everything on the cheap, and they do, I guess I have to give them a little credit for Florida Derby day.
Gulfsteam Park was slammed. They do not give attendance or handle figures, but in speaking with a worker at the track I learned the crowd was estimated to be about 23,000. Betting lines were 10 minutes long. I was told that the park had installed an extral 150 betting machines for the occassion. Again, trying to do it on the cheap. Really, how many people who go to the track once or twice a year for the big days go anywhere near the betting machines?
I prefer the machines, but on days like Fl. Derby day, there's no way. It will always be my luck to wind up behind some 0.10 cent super player entering every possible combo one at a time. Of course, most times that will be my good luck.
To the track's credit they did extend the time between races once they realized the size of the crowd which had showed up on that perfect South Florida day. One last thing I learned from the track worker is that there are plans to build a parking garage and extend the grandstand down the north side of the main building all the way down to the beginning of the stretch. It won't be this year or the next, but maybe in a couple of years, we can once again contemplate the possibility of the Breeder's Cup returning to Florida.
Had the muse had struck me sooner, my once loyal readers would've known my top pick for the race was the 29-1 Pleasant Prince. Yes it is true. Talk about bad beats! I figured the race had alot of early speed in it with most of it to the outside and didn't set up well for the favorite, Rule. I looked to the inside for likely horses to come from off the pace and settled on the Wesley Ward trained Pleasant Prince. Ice Box was certainly a contender as an off the pace contender, but it is well known that the outside posts don't do well at the 9 furlong distance. The 12 hole is nearly impossible except for Big Brown. Unfortunately for me, Ice Box was breaking from the 8th gate.
I have watched that race over and over and am still not convinced I lost. I'm still looking for the photo if anyone can direct me. That is the only way I will be convinced.
I have read that we (TBA that is) are now associating ourselves with Thorofan. This is a move the Weasel definitely is in favor of being a charter member of the Thorofan organization. So far, I can't see how my dues to Thorofan have done anything than help finance cocktail parties for the Saratoga chapter, but hope springs eternal that something good will eventually come out the organization.
The Horseplayer's Association of North America seems to have lost some momentum this year although I do remember they are having a day at Keeneland for members to assemble. If they send me another E-Mail telling me when it is, I'll let you know. That is an organization the Weasel certainly endorses. I hope the founders have not burned out. They tried very hard to make a difference last year. But you know, organizing horse player has got to be alot like herding cats.
That's it for now. Hopefully, I'll get some momentum of my own going and find another 18-1 Bullsbay or 29-1 Pleasant Prince for you to lay some dough on and cheer for.
I'm Off
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Breeder's Cup Scramble
Happy to be back in the saddle this week. Sorry about lack of posts last two weekends but sometimes personal and professional obligations just get in the way. I'd rather not do something at all than do it half-assed. After all, we've all got to have priorities.
Realistically, today is the last weekend for Breeder's Cup entries and wannabes to show their stuff, get tuned up for the big races, or just plain find out if they can run with the big dogs. With that thought in mind, Public Handicapper has 2 races from Keeneland and 2 from Santa Anita all of which have implications for the upcoming Breeder's Cup races now less than a month away.
The first race open for discussion is race 8 from Keeneland, The Dixiana Breeders' Futurity for 2 year olds contested at a mile and sixteenth.
I love 2 year old racing, which is a good thing as I get my fair share of it here in South Florida over the summer. Now we've moved from those ridiculous 2f affairs of early April to some real racing distances.
Two year olds are still learning to race and one thing I like to look for as the babies stretch out is those that look as if they get it rather than those which just break from the gate running all out until they can't go no more.
One horse in this race which certainly meets the aforementioned criterion is the #2 Backtalk trained by Thomas Amoss. Back Talk is already a multiple graded stakes winner and I expect him to bounce back after a wide trip in the Hopeful Stakes last out.
One knock against Backtalk we be how well he will take to the surface change. However the Oct. 5 6f work out at a respectable 1:12 4/5 tells me that the surface will not be an issue.
The 2nd choice for this race has yet to break his maiden. I suppose you could say he's a multiple graded stakes runner up. Those Beyer's figures look really nice and Lookin At Lucky has done nothing but flatter #7 Make Music for Me by winning the G1 Norfolk last Sunday at Santa Anita. Make Music for Me is another 2 yo that has shown some ability to hold his powder. Now if he can just get up to the line in time we may see some real fireworks.
The 3rd choice has merely won a maiden race at Saratoga and has to start from the outside post to boot. But if anyone can figure out a way to overcome a race course obstacle it will be Julien Leparoux on board #14 Stately Victor. Stately Victor is trained by Michael Maker.
Maker is a trainer that doesn't get as much press as others. He simply goes quietly about his business winning at a 25% clip year after year.
Stately Victor scored his maiden win at today's distance over the Saratoga grass posting an 80 Beyer in the process. Word is that good turf form usually translates well to poly form so the surface switch is not nearly as much a concern as the post. Look for Stately Victor at least somewhere underneath in the exotics if not in the winner's circle.
The fourth choice is the undefeated #1 Dixie Band. One reason Wayne Catalano is such a winner is he has a knack for placing his charges in races they can win, and Dixie Band has been no exception.
If there is any way to knock an unbeaten horse, the DRF has tried to do so in their closer look comment that the fillies ran faster in a later race on the same card as his last outing. You may take the comment for what its worth. Last time I looked there weren't any fillies running in the race and fillies seem to have been making it a habit of beating their brethren lately.
Another horse that may be live here, but I don't like the short break (14 days) is #6 Noble's Promise.
Top Choices
#2 Backtalk
#7 Make Music for Me
#14 Stately Victor
#1 Dixie Band
The next race to look at is...the next race at Keeneland or race 9 The Shadwell Turf Mile (G1).
As of this writing the Turf Course is soft and #1 Yorktown and #3 Wise River are scratched.
The soft going will be right up the top choice's alley the #2 Mr. Sidney. Mr. Sidney is 4 for 4 at this distance. Forget about the Arlington Million. Mr. Sidney was out of his element there. Mr. Sidney has won the G1 Maker's Mark Mile here at Keeneland and the G2 Firecracker at Churchill Downs over yielding courses so he definitely has the credentials for win here.
However, Mr Sidney is not a "stone cold lock" in here because there is another horse running that has had a terrific Summer. Long time readers of the report may recall the hunch play from Gulfstream Park way back at the beginning of the year with Justenuffhumor. Well, it turns out you could've ridden that hunch all year long as Justenuffhumor has done nothing but get better and win since January. Now he returns to the site of his only defeat.
Justenuffhumor has improved his Beyer every time he has raced (54, 86, 91, 94, 99, 103, 106). This streak can't go on forever. Sooner or later he has to have traffic problems, not like a surface, or just plain have an off day. I'm going to bet that today is that day. Still, he remains the 2nd choice #7 Justenuffhumor.
The third choice is no stranger to winning on soft grass. #5 Battle of Hastings has had a pretty good Summer himself and surprisingly to me is not a bad miler in his own right although I still believe that more distance suits him better.
Finally the fourth choice is strictly an angle play. #9 Court Vision is making his first start for Richard Dutrow. You can think what you like about Dick, but whether he does it honestly or not, horses that start first time out for him win 30% of the time. So don't ignore this one.
Choices
#2 Mr. Sidney
#7 Justenuffhumor
#5 Battle of Hastings
#9 Court Vision
Now moving on to the 6th race at Santa Anita the 24th running of The Oak Tree Mile (G2).
The top choice for this race has the tactical speed needed to either go to the lead or sit just of the pace as tactics dictate, is 2 for 2 at the distance and is coming out of two tough Saratoga races against 3 yo phenom Justenuffhumor. #9 Cowboy Cal gets the call as the top choice here. Garrett Gomez gets the call and with the recent form Cowboy Cal has been showing I think he is going to be tough to beat in here.
There are a few others that might get to the wire first and the 2nd choice for that honor would be #4 Global Hunter. Global Hunter turns back to a better distance after running 8th in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Looked to me like he never really got into that race. I prefer to look at the two races sandwiched in between the two 10 furlong debacles to get a better idea of the Hunter's ability at a mile. Global Hunter can win this race and may give a decent price in the process.
Another kinda sneaky horse in here is the #10 Whatsthescript coming in fresh for John Sadler who is 25% with a +ROI for horses off for 61-180 days. In case you think this may be too tough a spot to comeback in I will point out that Whatsthescript finished 3rd behind Goldikova and Kip Deville in last year's BC Mile after a similar layoff. Whatsthescript is 4 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 on the SA turf and should feel right at home here.
Finally I just have to throw in a tepid 4th choice here, #7 Monterrey Jazz. Monterrey Jazz clearly did not take to the Del Mar turf after a good Hollywood meet. In addition, the Winter Santa Anita meet was nothing to write home about either. However, MJ has run well here in the past and gets a positive jockey change in the person of Hall of Famer Mike Smith. Its a long shot and chances are MJ will run out of gas again, but then again...
Choices
#9 Cowboy Cal
#4 Global Hunter
#10 Whatsthescript
#7 Monterrey Jazz
Ok, I'm running out of steam here, good thing there is only one more to go. The 7th race from Santa Anita The Goodwood (G1) for 3 and up
I love it when the connections take a horse out of his element, like running on turf a race before a big one such as this because it helps to darken the form just enough to take less savvy players off him. Such is the case with my top pick here, #2 Tiago.
Tiago comes into this race fresh with only his 2nd race since February. With regular rider Mike Smith on board look for Tiago to be sweeping up wide and late (does Smith know any other way to ride?).
Tiago is 8 times ITM with 4 wins in 8 tries at the distance and has won over 1.5 million at Santa Anita. Look for him to add to that total today.
The 2nd choice is #4 Colonel John who had a terrible trip in the Pacific Classic. Look for the Colonel to improve on that effort with some better luck today.
The question about the 3rd choice #10 Mine That Bird in my mind is whether or not he is legit or merely a flash in the pan. We'll find out a lot about that today. The Bird has been working well over the course and I understand Woolley is happy with the way he has been running.
The Bird also gets reunited with his Derby rider Calvin Borel. However, Cali is a long way from Kentucky and the riding styles on the cushion are not the same as at Churchill. I'm not sure Calvin will make the adjustment.
Finally, I have to throw in Tres Borrachos as the 4th. If there was any other speed in this race, Tres would not get mentioned; however, this is the only horse in this race that has shown any desire to show the way. Joe Talamo knows how to ride so don't be shocked if today is the day Tres Borrachos wires the field.
Choices
#2 Tiago
#4 Colonel John
#10 Mine That Bird
#5 Tres Borrachos
By the way, commencing next week and continuing for a total of 4 weeks I will be a guest commentator for Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. I will choose one race on the Saturday card for Calder Race Course and offer my own unique perspective on the race. I'm really looking forward to the opportunity to perhaps shed some light on the racing at my home track.
Until the next post. Good luck
Realistically, today is the last weekend for Breeder's Cup entries and wannabes to show their stuff, get tuned up for the big races, or just plain find out if they can run with the big dogs. With that thought in mind, Public Handicapper has 2 races from Keeneland and 2 from Santa Anita all of which have implications for the upcoming Breeder's Cup races now less than a month away.
The first race open for discussion is race 8 from Keeneland, The Dixiana Breeders' Futurity for 2 year olds contested at a mile and sixteenth.
I love 2 year old racing, which is a good thing as I get my fair share of it here in South Florida over the summer. Now we've moved from those ridiculous 2f affairs of early April to some real racing distances.
Two year olds are still learning to race and one thing I like to look for as the babies stretch out is those that look as if they get it rather than those which just break from the gate running all out until they can't go no more.
One horse in this race which certainly meets the aforementioned criterion is the #2 Backtalk trained by Thomas Amoss. Back Talk is already a multiple graded stakes winner and I expect him to bounce back after a wide trip in the Hopeful Stakes last out.
One knock against Backtalk we be how well he will take to the surface change. However the Oct. 5 6f work out at a respectable 1:12 4/5 tells me that the surface will not be an issue.
The 2nd choice for this race has yet to break his maiden. I suppose you could say he's a multiple graded stakes runner up. Those Beyer's figures look really nice and Lookin At Lucky has done nothing but flatter #7 Make Music for Me by winning the G1 Norfolk last Sunday at Santa Anita. Make Music for Me is another 2 yo that has shown some ability to hold his powder. Now if he can just get up to the line in time we may see some real fireworks.
The 3rd choice has merely won a maiden race at Saratoga and has to start from the outside post to boot. But if anyone can figure out a way to overcome a race course obstacle it will be Julien Leparoux on board #14 Stately Victor. Stately Victor is trained by Michael Maker.
Maker is a trainer that doesn't get as much press as others. He simply goes quietly about his business winning at a 25% clip year after year.
Stately Victor scored his maiden win at today's distance over the Saratoga grass posting an 80 Beyer in the process. Word is that good turf form usually translates well to poly form so the surface switch is not nearly as much a concern as the post. Look for Stately Victor at least somewhere underneath in the exotics if not in the winner's circle.
The fourth choice is the undefeated #1 Dixie Band. One reason Wayne Catalano is such a winner is he has a knack for placing his charges in races they can win, and Dixie Band has been no exception.
If there is any way to knock an unbeaten horse, the DRF has tried to do so in their closer look comment that the fillies ran faster in a later race on the same card as his last outing. You may take the comment for what its worth. Last time I looked there weren't any fillies running in the race and fillies seem to have been making it a habit of beating their brethren lately.
Another horse that may be live here, but I don't like the short break (14 days) is #6 Noble's Promise.
Top Choices
#2 Backtalk
#7 Make Music for Me
#14 Stately Victor
#1 Dixie Band
The next race to look at is...the next race at Keeneland or race 9 The Shadwell Turf Mile (G1).
As of this writing the Turf Course is soft and #1 Yorktown and #3 Wise River are scratched.
The soft going will be right up the top choice's alley the #2 Mr. Sidney. Mr. Sidney is 4 for 4 at this distance. Forget about the Arlington Million. Mr. Sidney was out of his element there. Mr. Sidney has won the G1 Maker's Mark Mile here at Keeneland and the G2 Firecracker at Churchill Downs over yielding courses so he definitely has the credentials for win here.
However, Mr Sidney is not a "stone cold lock" in here because there is another horse running that has had a terrific Summer. Long time readers of the report may recall the hunch play from Gulfstream Park way back at the beginning of the year with Justenuffhumor. Well, it turns out you could've ridden that hunch all year long as Justenuffhumor has done nothing but get better and win since January. Now he returns to the site of his only defeat.
Justenuffhumor has improved his Beyer every time he has raced (54, 86, 91, 94, 99, 103, 106). This streak can't go on forever. Sooner or later he has to have traffic problems, not like a surface, or just plain have an off day. I'm going to bet that today is that day. Still, he remains the 2nd choice #7 Justenuffhumor.
The third choice is no stranger to winning on soft grass. #5 Battle of Hastings has had a pretty good Summer himself and surprisingly to me is not a bad miler in his own right although I still believe that more distance suits him better.
Finally the fourth choice is strictly an angle play. #9 Court Vision is making his first start for Richard Dutrow. You can think what you like about Dick, but whether he does it honestly or not, horses that start first time out for him win 30% of the time. So don't ignore this one.
Choices
#2 Mr. Sidney
#7 Justenuffhumor
#5 Battle of Hastings
#9 Court Vision
Now moving on to the 6th race at Santa Anita the 24th running of The Oak Tree Mile (G2).
The top choice for this race has the tactical speed needed to either go to the lead or sit just of the pace as tactics dictate, is 2 for 2 at the distance and is coming out of two tough Saratoga races against 3 yo phenom Justenuffhumor. #9 Cowboy Cal gets the call as the top choice here. Garrett Gomez gets the call and with the recent form Cowboy Cal has been showing I think he is going to be tough to beat in here.
There are a few others that might get to the wire first and the 2nd choice for that honor would be #4 Global Hunter. Global Hunter turns back to a better distance after running 8th in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Looked to me like he never really got into that race. I prefer to look at the two races sandwiched in between the two 10 furlong debacles to get a better idea of the Hunter's ability at a mile. Global Hunter can win this race and may give a decent price in the process.
Another kinda sneaky horse in here is the #10 Whatsthescript coming in fresh for John Sadler who is 25% with a +ROI for horses off for 61-180 days. In case you think this may be too tough a spot to comeback in I will point out that Whatsthescript finished 3rd behind Goldikova and Kip Deville in last year's BC Mile after a similar layoff. Whatsthescript is 4 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 on the SA turf and should feel right at home here.
Finally I just have to throw in a tepid 4th choice here, #7 Monterrey Jazz. Monterrey Jazz clearly did not take to the Del Mar turf after a good Hollywood meet. In addition, the Winter Santa Anita meet was nothing to write home about either. However, MJ has run well here in the past and gets a positive jockey change in the person of Hall of Famer Mike Smith. Its a long shot and chances are MJ will run out of gas again, but then again...
Choices
#9 Cowboy Cal
#4 Global Hunter
#10 Whatsthescript
#7 Monterrey Jazz
Ok, I'm running out of steam here, good thing there is only one more to go. The 7th race from Santa Anita The Goodwood (G1) for 3 and up
I love it when the connections take a horse out of his element, like running on turf a race before a big one such as this because it helps to darken the form just enough to take less savvy players off him. Such is the case with my top pick here, #2 Tiago.
Tiago comes into this race fresh with only his 2nd race since February. With regular rider Mike Smith on board look for Tiago to be sweeping up wide and late (does Smith know any other way to ride?).
Tiago is 8 times ITM with 4 wins in 8 tries at the distance and has won over 1.5 million at Santa Anita. Look for him to add to that total today.
The 2nd choice is #4 Colonel John who had a terrible trip in the Pacific Classic. Look for the Colonel to improve on that effort with some better luck today.
The question about the 3rd choice #10 Mine That Bird in my mind is whether or not he is legit or merely a flash in the pan. We'll find out a lot about that today. The Bird has been working well over the course and I understand Woolley is happy with the way he has been running.
The Bird also gets reunited with his Derby rider Calvin Borel. However, Cali is a long way from Kentucky and the riding styles on the cushion are not the same as at Churchill. I'm not sure Calvin will make the adjustment.
Finally, I have to throw in Tres Borrachos as the 4th. If there was any other speed in this race, Tres would not get mentioned; however, this is the only horse in this race that has shown any desire to show the way. Joe Talamo knows how to ride so don't be shocked if today is the day Tres Borrachos wires the field.
Choices
#2 Tiago
#4 Colonel John
#10 Mine That Bird
#5 Tres Borrachos
By the way, commencing next week and continuing for a total of 4 weeks I will be a guest commentator for Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. I will choose one race on the Saturday card for Calder Race Course and offer my own unique perspective on the race. I'm really looking forward to the opportunity to perhaps shed some light on the racing at my home track.
Until the next post. Good luck
Friday, April 17, 2009
Playing the Home Game
You might've already noticed a change in the Scoreboard to the immediate left. This is due to the fact that I expect to be playing the home game more often for the foreseeable future. The new arrival in my house, now officially named Max (Ruffian was rejected), is very demanding and it is difficult to get much done with a six week old puppy requiring constant attention. Because of this, I think it would be very unfair of me to abandon my darling wife (you thought I was going to say puppy, didn't you?). Therefore my weekly forays to the local racing facilities will be somewhat curtailed at least until the puppy can be trusted to fend for himself a little better in a few months or years or til death do us part.
I started out using the board to follow my Public Handicapper picks, but that is not really an accurate measure of what I'm doing. I'm going to say this knowing full well all the snarky comments I an leaving myself open to. My handicapping methodology is not so much about picking the winner. I prefer to pick losers! Just kidding ;-D Actually, I prefer to pick contenders and then make a play or not based on my opinion of fair odds. Because of that the few wagers I put in there were not necessarily real wagers. That discouraged me and I found it to be pointless. And since I do most of my wagering at the track, it didn't really seem correct to come back after the fact and put up numbers.
Therefore, I removed the phony wagers and the ones you see there now are ones I made and posted in real time. For tomorrow, I'm going to look at a few races from Gulfstream and Keeneland and maybe even head up to Woodbine for a race. Tune in occassionally and you'll be able to see what the weasel is up to in real time.
Oh, and don't worry about that 34% ROI. It won't last very long. I'll be satified just to keep it on the positive side. I found a couple of playable races at Golden Gate for this afternoon. Got the exacta in race two and a dead heat in race 6 turned my 5-2 into 4 -5. So tune in early and tune in often. See what I'm playing then do something else, you can't lose that way.
May the horse be with you
I started out using the board to follow my Public Handicapper picks, but that is not really an accurate measure of what I'm doing. I'm going to say this knowing full well all the snarky comments I an leaving myself open to. My handicapping methodology is not so much about picking the winner. I prefer to pick losers! Just kidding ;-D Actually, I prefer to pick contenders and then make a play or not based on my opinion of fair odds. Because of that the few wagers I put in there were not necessarily real wagers. That discouraged me and I found it to be pointless. And since I do most of my wagering at the track, it didn't really seem correct to come back after the fact and put up numbers.
Therefore, I removed the phony wagers and the ones you see there now are ones I made and posted in real time. For tomorrow, I'm going to look at a few races from Gulfstream and Keeneland and maybe even head up to Woodbine for a race. Tune in occassionally and you'll be able to see what the weasel is up to in real time.
Oh, and don't worry about that 34% ROI. It won't last very long. I'll be satified just to keep it on the positive side. I found a couple of playable races at Golden Gate for this afternoon. Got the exacta in race two and a dead heat in race 6 turned my 5-2 into 4 -5. So tune in early and tune in often. See what I'm playing then do something else, you can't lose that way.
May the horse be with you
Sunday, April 12, 2009
New Arrival
It's been an unusual lag from my last post. I've had a cold this week that has kept me feeling pretty run down. Hard to handicap when you're feeling run down. But the main deterrent to my writing is a lack of time due to a new arrival in my family. A lively 6-week old Jack Russell Terrier named Max. All puppies are very demanding on your time, and, as a breed, Jack's are particularly demanding and require a lot of personal attention. The good side of this is I am going to have to be more selective in the races I choose to handicap. The bad news is that I may have to curtail some of my track time. There are always trade-offs. Thank the gods for Twinspires.
Yesterday, I was feeling a little better, so between trips to the back yard to "go potty" I managed to handicap the 4 stakes races at Keeneland, with some good success as it turned out.
I just missed in the Grade 3 Shakertown backing Chamberlain Bridge @ 5-1. I thought 5-1 was a pretty good price on CB. I tossed his last race at Tampa figuring that he didn't care for the surface at Tampa. Florida Turf courses, especially at the 2nd tier courses such as Calder and Tampa can be much different than the type at other tracks such as the Fair Grounds Chamberlain Bridge had shipped from. Even Gulfstream's Turf course has been running like the Florida Turnpike because of the general lack of rain we've had this winter. I thought CB would bounce back after that effort and give a good account of himself which he did finishing a game 3rd behind Cannonball and the winner Heroes Reward.
The pay off race was the G2 Commonwealth Stakes. Hard to ignore Eternal Star with his last ten races all having triple digit Brisnet speed figures. Plus, has My Pal Charlie won anything of significance before or since his Superderby win last year? Yet he still seems to draw a lot of money. I always consider him a bet against feeling he is one of the those over-rated horses making his reputation off the result of one big win. Today was no different as Eternal Star brought home $5.60 for every dollar laid and triggered a 47.00 exacta for me.
I sat out the Grade 2 Jenny Wiley stakes figuring Forever Together just had too much of a class edge over the rest of the field and everyone would know it. I was right on both counts as Julian Leparoux hand rode Forever Together to a win that wasn't as close as the box score would indicate. Forever Together went off at even money which may have been a low priced overlay considering the circumstances. Still I like to look for those bombers that score so often on turf, and there just didn't seem to be any in this race.
Sad to say, I didn't have General Quarters in the Bluegrass as my bias against former claiming horses (ThisonesforPhil?) once again made him a toss out for me. Still, this is a great story and one that will have the television people gushing all Derby week long now that the General will run in the big show (where, incidentally, I will once again exhibit my former claiming horse bias and toss early from contention).
I didn't play the Arkansas Derby, but have to note after watching the replay that Papa Clem showed a new dimension in winning that race. One that could make him a serious contender for the roses on May 2.
And on the business side, I have to note that, once again, the Florida Horseman's Association and Twin Spires are fighting over simulcast revenue so that, once again, it seems if I want to place a bet on a race at Calder, I'll have to make the 10 minute schlep over to the track. I don't really mind as I enjoy the track, but there are times, like yesterday, when other aspects of life have to take priority and I'd just like to isolate a few races and play the home game. So, once again, the racing business factions feud among themselves and the customer is the one who winds up getting screwed. All the more reason for us horse players to organize and flex some of our own muscle in groups such as HANA.
HANA has for the last two weeks been running operation "Get In The Pool". Every Tuesday a smaller track is selected and members of HANA descend upon that track for a designated race to show how much influence HANA as an organization can have. I have to say, I think this is a brilliant idea. Two Tuesdays ago we descended upon Will Rogers Downs where we flooded the win pool of one of the races and increased the handle for that race on that day by 97.2%. Last week it was off to Tampa Bay where we nearly doubled (99.4%) the P3 Pool for races 6-7-8. This Tuesday the lucky recipient of our buycott money will be a Mountaineer exacta pool (race to be determined). By banding together as horseplayers, perhaps we can finally show the business that they ultimately need us, the paying customers, if they hope to remain viable. Join HANA, the price is right, free. And check the website for the next buycott race. http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/
Yesterday, I was feeling a little better, so between trips to the back yard to "go potty" I managed to handicap the 4 stakes races at Keeneland, with some good success as it turned out.
I just missed in the Grade 3 Shakertown backing Chamberlain Bridge @ 5-1. I thought 5-1 was a pretty good price on CB. I tossed his last race at Tampa figuring that he didn't care for the surface at Tampa. Florida Turf courses, especially at the 2nd tier courses such as Calder and Tampa can be much different than the type at other tracks such as the Fair Grounds Chamberlain Bridge had shipped from. Even Gulfstream's Turf course has been running like the Florida Turnpike because of the general lack of rain we've had this winter. I thought CB would bounce back after that effort and give a good account of himself which he did finishing a game 3rd behind Cannonball and the winner Heroes Reward.
The pay off race was the G2 Commonwealth Stakes. Hard to ignore Eternal Star with his last ten races all having triple digit Brisnet speed figures. Plus, has My Pal Charlie won anything of significance before or since his Superderby win last year? Yet he still seems to draw a lot of money. I always consider him a bet against feeling he is one of the those over-rated horses making his reputation off the result of one big win. Today was no different as Eternal Star brought home $5.60 for every dollar laid and triggered a 47.00 exacta for me.
I sat out the Grade 2 Jenny Wiley stakes figuring Forever Together just had too much of a class edge over the rest of the field and everyone would know it. I was right on both counts as Julian Leparoux hand rode Forever Together to a win that wasn't as close as the box score would indicate. Forever Together went off at even money which may have been a low priced overlay considering the circumstances. Still I like to look for those bombers that score so often on turf, and there just didn't seem to be any in this race.
Sad to say, I didn't have General Quarters in the Bluegrass as my bias against former claiming horses (ThisonesforPhil?) once again made him a toss out for me. Still, this is a great story and one that will have the television people gushing all Derby week long now that the General will run in the big show (where, incidentally, I will once again exhibit my former claiming horse bias and toss early from contention).
I didn't play the Arkansas Derby, but have to note after watching the replay that Papa Clem showed a new dimension in winning that race. One that could make him a serious contender for the roses on May 2.
And on the business side, I have to note that, once again, the Florida Horseman's Association and Twin Spires are fighting over simulcast revenue so that, once again, it seems if I want to place a bet on a race at Calder, I'll have to make the 10 minute schlep over to the track. I don't really mind as I enjoy the track, but there are times, like yesterday, when other aspects of life have to take priority and I'd just like to isolate a few races and play the home game. So, once again, the racing business factions feud among themselves and the customer is the one who winds up getting screwed. All the more reason for us horse players to organize and flex some of our own muscle in groups such as HANA.
HANA has for the last two weeks been running operation "Get In The Pool". Every Tuesday a smaller track is selected and members of HANA descend upon that track for a designated race to show how much influence HANA as an organization can have. I have to say, I think this is a brilliant idea. Two Tuesdays ago we descended upon Will Rogers Downs where we flooded the win pool of one of the races and increased the handle for that race on that day by 97.2%. Last week it was off to Tampa Bay where we nearly doubled (99.4%) the P3 Pool for races 6-7-8. This Tuesday the lucky recipient of our buycott money will be a Mountaineer exacta pool (race to be determined). By banding together as horseplayers, perhaps we can finally show the business that they ultimately need us, the paying customers, if they hope to remain viable. Join HANA, the price is right, free. And check the website for the next buycott race. http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Hooky!
I got to play hooky from work today, sort of. Having a 1:00 dentist appointment, conveniently located near Gulfstream Park, I boogied on out of that dentist's office as soon as they would let me go and managed to get to good ol' GP in time to see the 3rd race go off.
Ah great joy under partly cloudy skies and a very pleasant 74 degrees (I'm too lazy to use superscript). Even managed to win an investment on the 9-1 Mi Carola in the 7th race making for an extra enjoyable day, indeed.
Also watched Kiaran McLaughlin sweat out the race of the heavily favored Hellvelyn who barely beat at the wire the speedy Piratesonthelake. "Never a doubt," he said.
I don't know what's going to happen to Magna Entertainment, but apparently the shopping, office, and entertainment complex located between the track and U.S. 1 is moving right along. There is a story at Miami Herald. com today that says the says the 85% completed project now has 50% of its space leased to prospective tenants. Such tenants will include Crate and Barrel (who needs crates and barrels?) and The Container Store. In addition there will be up to 10 restaurants and other boutique, specialty type stores. In addition, the developer has cut a deal with the Hallandale Beach City Commision that gives them a share of the projected increased tax revenue projected to reach up to $900k annually. That is of course, if anyone is still in business by 2010. Here's the link if your interested in the entire article. http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/922000.html
I noticed that mention of Magna Entertainment was absent. I have no particular love for MEC. I really don't know that much about them except that they are basically broke. Still, I would hate to lose the Gulfstream Winter racing season. Year round racing at Calder Race Course just won't cut it. I love the full competitive fields. It's so much easier finding overlays among the throngs of socialites and vacationers just out for a daily lark than entering the shark pit and short fields at Calder Race Course.
And speaking of short fields, during my phone conversation with JJ Tuttle (remember him?) he strongly suggested betting the longest shot in a short field. Now a short field is defined as 7 or fewer horses. He wrote about this angle in one of his books, I forget which one. Of course, he offered no data to support this thesis, but because this one is a no brainer to test, I have decided to put it to the test. So far this season, this has been a winning angle at Gulfstream with a 10% hit rate out of 50 such races. The angle shows a $175.80 profit based on a $2.00 win bet for each longest shot contender. However, after going back through all of Gulfstream's charts for the 2009 meet so far, I started on CRC. I haven't gotten very far yet, but after 22 qualifying races the angle has been shut out. Now it is possible that tracks like Calder attract a savvier clientele regarding the handicapping of horses than does Gulfstream Park. I will continue tracking Gulfstream through the remainder of the season and work my way back through all the Calder charts that I have. I don't think I have all the charts for CRC on my hard drive, but I think I can get them if I look hard enough. If anyone want's to share in this little project, I suggest you choose an upper echelon track like, say Santa Anita and a more pedestrian track such as Golden Gate Fields. As for me, I'll be tracking the upcoming Keeneland and Churchill Downs meets. I'll keep you up to date with my results. Who knows, maybe I'll owe Mr. Tuttle an apology.
See ya next time.
Ah great joy under partly cloudy skies and a very pleasant 74 degrees (I'm too lazy to use superscript). Even managed to win an investment on the 9-1 Mi Carola in the 7th race making for an extra enjoyable day, indeed.
Also watched Kiaran McLaughlin sweat out the race of the heavily favored Hellvelyn who barely beat at the wire the speedy Piratesonthelake. "Never a doubt," he said.
I don't know what's going to happen to Magna Entertainment, but apparently the shopping, office, and entertainment complex located between the track and U.S. 1 is moving right along. There is a story at Miami Herald. com today that says the says the 85% completed project now has 50% of its space leased to prospective tenants. Such tenants will include Crate and Barrel (who needs crates and barrels?) and The Container Store. In addition there will be up to 10 restaurants and other boutique, specialty type stores. In addition, the developer has cut a deal with the Hallandale Beach City Commision that gives them a share of the projected increased tax revenue projected to reach up to $900k annually. That is of course, if anyone is still in business by 2010. Here's the link if your interested in the entire article. http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/922000.html
I noticed that mention of Magna Entertainment was absent. I have no particular love for MEC. I really don't know that much about them except that they are basically broke. Still, I would hate to lose the Gulfstream Winter racing season. Year round racing at Calder Race Course just won't cut it. I love the full competitive fields. It's so much easier finding overlays among the throngs of socialites and vacationers just out for a daily lark than entering the shark pit and short fields at Calder Race Course.
And speaking of short fields, during my phone conversation with JJ Tuttle (remember him?) he strongly suggested betting the longest shot in a short field. Now a short field is defined as 7 or fewer horses. He wrote about this angle in one of his books, I forget which one. Of course, he offered no data to support this thesis, but because this one is a no brainer to test, I have decided to put it to the test. So far this season, this has been a winning angle at Gulfstream with a 10% hit rate out of 50 such races. The angle shows a $175.80 profit based on a $2.00 win bet for each longest shot contender. However, after going back through all of Gulfstream's charts for the 2009 meet so far, I started on CRC. I haven't gotten very far yet, but after 22 qualifying races the angle has been shut out. Now it is possible that tracks like Calder attract a savvier clientele regarding the handicapping of horses than does Gulfstream Park. I will continue tracking Gulfstream through the remainder of the season and work my way back through all the Calder charts that I have. I don't think I have all the charts for CRC on my hard drive, but I think I can get them if I look hard enough. If anyone want's to share in this little project, I suggest you choose an upper echelon track like, say Santa Anita and a more pedestrian track such as Golden Gate Fields. As for me, I'll be tracking the upcoming Keeneland and Churchill Downs meets. I'll keep you up to date with my results. Who knows, maybe I'll owe Mr. Tuttle an apology.
See ya next time.
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