Going into the what is realistically the last chance for some Derby hopefuls to gain the coveted graded stakes earnings they need to gain entry into the Kentucky Derby. For today, the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn will be the big draws.
First up to Lexington, Ky for the Bluegrass Stakes. The race shapes up as one of those types where we are absent the presence of any confirmed lead horses.
The 2 horse, First Dude, is the only contender with a Quirin figure suggesting a front running style (E6). However, never in his 5 career races has First Dude been on the lead in the first 2 calls.
This is important because much of the discussion this week has involved Florida Derby runner-up Pleasant Prince. But the Florida Derby had 4 of 11 entries with early speed Quirin designations. I figured the race was set up for an off the pace type which is why Pleasant Prince, at 29/1, was my top selection (It still hurts). Eventual winner, Ice Box, came from dead last to nip Pleasant Prince at the wire, so they say. Going into the race Ice Box had an Early Presser (EP) Quirin figure, but he ran an "S" style (closer) race on that day.
The whole point is that the Bluegrass Stakes sets up in such a manner that it is going to make winning much more difficult for off the pace running styles to win today. I like Pleasant Prince and consider him a solid contender, but am looking elsewhere for a top contender.
To find that contender I have to look no farther than Post Position #1 for the G3 Tampa Derby winner Odysseus. Odysseus has shown the tactical ability to run near the lead and I think that is what will be required to win the race. Odysseus also showed alot of heart in his Tampa win to come back and get Schoolyard Dreams and Super Saver at the wire.
Pleasant Prince also showed some ability to stay near a quick pace in the Florida Derby, and his nip and tuck duel down the stretch with Ice Box showed that he will not wilt under pressure. If he can stay close to the leaders today, he may yet find his way to the Winner's Circle and is my second choice in the race.
For a third selection, I'm looking for a potential longshot to pull off the upset. #7 Paddy O Prado moves to the main track after running his last 4 on grass including a win in the G3 Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park. His Quirin figure is (S3) indicating the closing style so typical of turf runners, but he was never more than half a length off the leader at the calls in his Palm Beach win. Paddy is also flattered by Dean's Kitten who finished 2nd in the Palm Beach and went on to win the G2 Lanes End at Turfway next out. Paddy has Kent Desormeaux riding him today. Kent started off the Gulfstream meet slowly but has been picking it up lately and has been a hot jockey recently. I look for Paddy to give a good account of himself today and if the top two picks falter he may be there to pick up the pieces and the win.
In summary, the picks and the odds I need to play them
#1 Odysseus 3-1
#6 Pleasant Prince 4-1
#7 Paddy O' Prado 7-1
The Arkansas Derby shapes up differently from the Bluegrass with 3 of the 9 contenders sporting early running preferences. The morning line favorite Super Saver sits on the rail and has Calvin Bo-rail riding him. He looks to be the best of the bunch who will contend for the lead at the first call. However, it is the leader at the final call the matters. I don't expect the Morning Line favorite to be the first to cross under the wire.
Of the "P" (presser) types, only Dublin appears to have the credentials to find the wire first, but a look at the comment lines tells me he may not be the choice. The comment lines are full of "weakened, "4w", "no response", "Drifted wide no bid", "Stumbled, wide no bid". You get my point. Also. a look at his last effort in the G2 Rebel shows the horse to be really gassed in the final 16th.
This leaves for us the Early Presser's (EP). Of these, Noble's Promise seems the most promising. Nobles's Promise has been racing against much better and even though this is a Grade 1 event, I get the feeling you can almost claim a little bit of class relief for the son of Cuvee. His pedigree suggests the classic distance may be too much for him, but he has shown he can handle 9 furlongs. I expect him to win today.
Of course it is a horse race, so you need a plan b and a plan c. The second choice is Northern Giant. This son of Giant's Causeway has the look of a 3 year old that may be peaking at just the right time. Northern Giant has place and show finishes in his last two Grade 2 outings and does not need to move forward much here to take the top prize.
Finally for the third contender we are going to take Uh Oh Bango. Uh Oh gets a positive rider switch to Sean Bridgmohan and is coming 2nd off the layoff. Look for him to improve upon his 3YO debut into the Rebel where he finished 4th. Uh Oh ran just off the pace for the first two calls before tiring to a 4th place finish. Given a tough assignment in his first back since December, the race should have done him some good, and he gets the prize as most likely to improve. If he lives up to that promise he may be most likely to finish first.
The contenders and required odds to play are as follows
#3 Noble's Promise 2-1
#4 Northern Giant 5-1
#5 Uh Oh Bango 7-1
For other opinions, be sure to visit the TBA home page http://www.tbablogs.com/. The information used to make these selections was obtained, in part, from Brisnet Ultimate Past Performance which can be obtained gratis from the TBA home page.
I'm Off!
Showing posts with label horse picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label horse picks. Show all posts
Saturday, April 10, 2010
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Breeder's Cup Scramble
Happy to be back in the saddle this week. Sorry about lack of posts last two weekends but sometimes personal and professional obligations just get in the way. I'd rather not do something at all than do it half-assed. After all, we've all got to have priorities.
Realistically, today is the last weekend for Breeder's Cup entries and wannabes to show their stuff, get tuned up for the big races, or just plain find out if they can run with the big dogs. With that thought in mind, Public Handicapper has 2 races from Keeneland and 2 from Santa Anita all of which have implications for the upcoming Breeder's Cup races now less than a month away.
The first race open for discussion is race 8 from Keeneland, The Dixiana Breeders' Futurity for 2 year olds contested at a mile and sixteenth.
I love 2 year old racing, which is a good thing as I get my fair share of it here in South Florida over the summer. Now we've moved from those ridiculous 2f affairs of early April to some real racing distances.
Two year olds are still learning to race and one thing I like to look for as the babies stretch out is those that look as if they get it rather than those which just break from the gate running all out until they can't go no more.
One horse in this race which certainly meets the aforementioned criterion is the #2 Backtalk trained by Thomas Amoss. Back Talk is already a multiple graded stakes winner and I expect him to bounce back after a wide trip in the Hopeful Stakes last out.
One knock against Backtalk we be how well he will take to the surface change. However the Oct. 5 6f work out at a respectable 1:12 4/5 tells me that the surface will not be an issue.
The 2nd choice for this race has yet to break his maiden. I suppose you could say he's a multiple graded stakes runner up. Those Beyer's figures look really nice and Lookin At Lucky has done nothing but flatter #7 Make Music for Me by winning the G1 Norfolk last Sunday at Santa Anita. Make Music for Me is another 2 yo that has shown some ability to hold his powder. Now if he can just get up to the line in time we may see some real fireworks.
The 3rd choice has merely won a maiden race at Saratoga and has to start from the outside post to boot. But if anyone can figure out a way to overcome a race course obstacle it will be Julien Leparoux on board #14 Stately Victor. Stately Victor is trained by Michael Maker.
Maker is a trainer that doesn't get as much press as others. He simply goes quietly about his business winning at a 25% clip year after year.
Stately Victor scored his maiden win at today's distance over the Saratoga grass posting an 80 Beyer in the process. Word is that good turf form usually translates well to poly form so the surface switch is not nearly as much a concern as the post. Look for Stately Victor at least somewhere underneath in the exotics if not in the winner's circle.
The fourth choice is the undefeated #1 Dixie Band. One reason Wayne Catalano is such a winner is he has a knack for placing his charges in races they can win, and Dixie Band has been no exception.
If there is any way to knock an unbeaten horse, the DRF has tried to do so in their closer look comment that the fillies ran faster in a later race on the same card as his last outing. You may take the comment for what its worth. Last time I looked there weren't any fillies running in the race and fillies seem to have been making it a habit of beating their brethren lately.
Another horse that may be live here, but I don't like the short break (14 days) is #6 Noble's Promise.
Top Choices
#2 Backtalk
#7 Make Music for Me
#14 Stately Victor
#1 Dixie Band
The next race to look at is...the next race at Keeneland or race 9 The Shadwell Turf Mile (G1).
As of this writing the Turf Course is soft and #1 Yorktown and #3 Wise River are scratched.
The soft going will be right up the top choice's alley the #2 Mr. Sidney. Mr. Sidney is 4 for 4 at this distance. Forget about the Arlington Million. Mr. Sidney was out of his element there. Mr. Sidney has won the G1 Maker's Mark Mile here at Keeneland and the G2 Firecracker at Churchill Downs over yielding courses so he definitely has the credentials for win here.
However, Mr Sidney is not a "stone cold lock" in here because there is another horse running that has had a terrific Summer. Long time readers of the report may recall the hunch play from Gulfstream Park way back at the beginning of the year with Justenuffhumor. Well, it turns out you could've ridden that hunch all year long as Justenuffhumor has done nothing but get better and win since January. Now he returns to the site of his only defeat.
Justenuffhumor has improved his Beyer every time he has raced (54, 86, 91, 94, 99, 103, 106). This streak can't go on forever. Sooner or later he has to have traffic problems, not like a surface, or just plain have an off day. I'm going to bet that today is that day. Still, he remains the 2nd choice #7 Justenuffhumor.
The third choice is no stranger to winning on soft grass. #5 Battle of Hastings has had a pretty good Summer himself and surprisingly to me is not a bad miler in his own right although I still believe that more distance suits him better.
Finally the fourth choice is strictly an angle play. #9 Court Vision is making his first start for Richard Dutrow. You can think what you like about Dick, but whether he does it honestly or not, horses that start first time out for him win 30% of the time. So don't ignore this one.
Choices
#2 Mr. Sidney
#7 Justenuffhumor
#5 Battle of Hastings
#9 Court Vision
Now moving on to the 6th race at Santa Anita the 24th running of The Oak Tree Mile (G2).
The top choice for this race has the tactical speed needed to either go to the lead or sit just of the pace as tactics dictate, is 2 for 2 at the distance and is coming out of two tough Saratoga races against 3 yo phenom Justenuffhumor. #9 Cowboy Cal gets the call as the top choice here. Garrett Gomez gets the call and with the recent form Cowboy Cal has been showing I think he is going to be tough to beat in here.
There are a few others that might get to the wire first and the 2nd choice for that honor would be #4 Global Hunter. Global Hunter turns back to a better distance after running 8th in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Looked to me like he never really got into that race. I prefer to look at the two races sandwiched in between the two 10 furlong debacles to get a better idea of the Hunter's ability at a mile. Global Hunter can win this race and may give a decent price in the process.
Another kinda sneaky horse in here is the #10 Whatsthescript coming in fresh for John Sadler who is 25% with a +ROI for horses off for 61-180 days. In case you think this may be too tough a spot to comeback in I will point out that Whatsthescript finished 3rd behind Goldikova and Kip Deville in last year's BC Mile after a similar layoff. Whatsthescript is 4 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 on the SA turf and should feel right at home here.
Finally I just have to throw in a tepid 4th choice here, #7 Monterrey Jazz. Monterrey Jazz clearly did not take to the Del Mar turf after a good Hollywood meet. In addition, the Winter Santa Anita meet was nothing to write home about either. However, MJ has run well here in the past and gets a positive jockey change in the person of Hall of Famer Mike Smith. Its a long shot and chances are MJ will run out of gas again, but then again...
Choices
#9 Cowboy Cal
#4 Global Hunter
#10 Whatsthescript
#7 Monterrey Jazz
Ok, I'm running out of steam here, good thing there is only one more to go. The 7th race from Santa Anita The Goodwood (G1) for 3 and up
I love it when the connections take a horse out of his element, like running on turf a race before a big one such as this because it helps to darken the form just enough to take less savvy players off him. Such is the case with my top pick here, #2 Tiago.
Tiago comes into this race fresh with only his 2nd race since February. With regular rider Mike Smith on board look for Tiago to be sweeping up wide and late (does Smith know any other way to ride?).
Tiago is 8 times ITM with 4 wins in 8 tries at the distance and has won over 1.5 million at Santa Anita. Look for him to add to that total today.
The 2nd choice is #4 Colonel John who had a terrible trip in the Pacific Classic. Look for the Colonel to improve on that effort with some better luck today.
The question about the 3rd choice #10 Mine That Bird in my mind is whether or not he is legit or merely a flash in the pan. We'll find out a lot about that today. The Bird has been working well over the course and I understand Woolley is happy with the way he has been running.
The Bird also gets reunited with his Derby rider Calvin Borel. However, Cali is a long way from Kentucky and the riding styles on the cushion are not the same as at Churchill. I'm not sure Calvin will make the adjustment.
Finally, I have to throw in Tres Borrachos as the 4th. If there was any other speed in this race, Tres would not get mentioned; however, this is the only horse in this race that has shown any desire to show the way. Joe Talamo knows how to ride so don't be shocked if today is the day Tres Borrachos wires the field.
Choices
#2 Tiago
#4 Colonel John
#10 Mine That Bird
#5 Tres Borrachos
By the way, commencing next week and continuing for a total of 4 weeks I will be a guest commentator for Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. I will choose one race on the Saturday card for Calder Race Course and offer my own unique perspective on the race. I'm really looking forward to the opportunity to perhaps shed some light on the racing at my home track.
Until the next post. Good luck
Realistically, today is the last weekend for Breeder's Cup entries and wannabes to show their stuff, get tuned up for the big races, or just plain find out if they can run with the big dogs. With that thought in mind, Public Handicapper has 2 races from Keeneland and 2 from Santa Anita all of which have implications for the upcoming Breeder's Cup races now less than a month away.
The first race open for discussion is race 8 from Keeneland, The Dixiana Breeders' Futurity for 2 year olds contested at a mile and sixteenth.
I love 2 year old racing, which is a good thing as I get my fair share of it here in South Florida over the summer. Now we've moved from those ridiculous 2f affairs of early April to some real racing distances.
Two year olds are still learning to race and one thing I like to look for as the babies stretch out is those that look as if they get it rather than those which just break from the gate running all out until they can't go no more.
One horse in this race which certainly meets the aforementioned criterion is the #2 Backtalk trained by Thomas Amoss. Back Talk is already a multiple graded stakes winner and I expect him to bounce back after a wide trip in the Hopeful Stakes last out.
One knock against Backtalk we be how well he will take to the surface change. However the Oct. 5 6f work out at a respectable 1:12 4/5 tells me that the surface will not be an issue.
The 2nd choice for this race has yet to break his maiden. I suppose you could say he's a multiple graded stakes runner up. Those Beyer's figures look really nice and Lookin At Lucky has done nothing but flatter #7 Make Music for Me by winning the G1 Norfolk last Sunday at Santa Anita. Make Music for Me is another 2 yo that has shown some ability to hold his powder. Now if he can just get up to the line in time we may see some real fireworks.
The 3rd choice has merely won a maiden race at Saratoga and has to start from the outside post to boot. But if anyone can figure out a way to overcome a race course obstacle it will be Julien Leparoux on board #14 Stately Victor. Stately Victor is trained by Michael Maker.
Maker is a trainer that doesn't get as much press as others. He simply goes quietly about his business winning at a 25% clip year after year.
Stately Victor scored his maiden win at today's distance over the Saratoga grass posting an 80 Beyer in the process. Word is that good turf form usually translates well to poly form so the surface switch is not nearly as much a concern as the post. Look for Stately Victor at least somewhere underneath in the exotics if not in the winner's circle.
The fourth choice is the undefeated #1 Dixie Band. One reason Wayne Catalano is such a winner is he has a knack for placing his charges in races they can win, and Dixie Band has been no exception.
If there is any way to knock an unbeaten horse, the DRF has tried to do so in their closer look comment that the fillies ran faster in a later race on the same card as his last outing. You may take the comment for what its worth. Last time I looked there weren't any fillies running in the race and fillies seem to have been making it a habit of beating their brethren lately.
Another horse that may be live here, but I don't like the short break (14 days) is #6 Noble's Promise.
Top Choices
#2 Backtalk
#7 Make Music for Me
#14 Stately Victor
#1 Dixie Band
The next race to look at is...the next race at Keeneland or race 9 The Shadwell Turf Mile (G1).
As of this writing the Turf Course is soft and #1 Yorktown and #3 Wise River are scratched.
The soft going will be right up the top choice's alley the #2 Mr. Sidney. Mr. Sidney is 4 for 4 at this distance. Forget about the Arlington Million. Mr. Sidney was out of his element there. Mr. Sidney has won the G1 Maker's Mark Mile here at Keeneland and the G2 Firecracker at Churchill Downs over yielding courses so he definitely has the credentials for win here.
However, Mr Sidney is not a "stone cold lock" in here because there is another horse running that has had a terrific Summer. Long time readers of the report may recall the hunch play from Gulfstream Park way back at the beginning of the year with Justenuffhumor. Well, it turns out you could've ridden that hunch all year long as Justenuffhumor has done nothing but get better and win since January. Now he returns to the site of his only defeat.
Justenuffhumor has improved his Beyer every time he has raced (54, 86, 91, 94, 99, 103, 106). This streak can't go on forever. Sooner or later he has to have traffic problems, not like a surface, or just plain have an off day. I'm going to bet that today is that day. Still, he remains the 2nd choice #7 Justenuffhumor.
The third choice is no stranger to winning on soft grass. #5 Battle of Hastings has had a pretty good Summer himself and surprisingly to me is not a bad miler in his own right although I still believe that more distance suits him better.
Finally the fourth choice is strictly an angle play. #9 Court Vision is making his first start for Richard Dutrow. You can think what you like about Dick, but whether he does it honestly or not, horses that start first time out for him win 30% of the time. So don't ignore this one.
Choices
#2 Mr. Sidney
#7 Justenuffhumor
#5 Battle of Hastings
#9 Court Vision
Now moving on to the 6th race at Santa Anita the 24th running of The Oak Tree Mile (G2).
The top choice for this race has the tactical speed needed to either go to the lead or sit just of the pace as tactics dictate, is 2 for 2 at the distance and is coming out of two tough Saratoga races against 3 yo phenom Justenuffhumor. #9 Cowboy Cal gets the call as the top choice here. Garrett Gomez gets the call and with the recent form Cowboy Cal has been showing I think he is going to be tough to beat in here.
There are a few others that might get to the wire first and the 2nd choice for that honor would be #4 Global Hunter. Global Hunter turns back to a better distance after running 8th in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Looked to me like he never really got into that race. I prefer to look at the two races sandwiched in between the two 10 furlong debacles to get a better idea of the Hunter's ability at a mile. Global Hunter can win this race and may give a decent price in the process.
Another kinda sneaky horse in here is the #10 Whatsthescript coming in fresh for John Sadler who is 25% with a +ROI for horses off for 61-180 days. In case you think this may be too tough a spot to comeback in I will point out that Whatsthescript finished 3rd behind Goldikova and Kip Deville in last year's BC Mile after a similar layoff. Whatsthescript is 4 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 on the SA turf and should feel right at home here.
Finally I just have to throw in a tepid 4th choice here, #7 Monterrey Jazz. Monterrey Jazz clearly did not take to the Del Mar turf after a good Hollywood meet. In addition, the Winter Santa Anita meet was nothing to write home about either. However, MJ has run well here in the past and gets a positive jockey change in the person of Hall of Famer Mike Smith. Its a long shot and chances are MJ will run out of gas again, but then again...
Choices
#9 Cowboy Cal
#4 Global Hunter
#10 Whatsthescript
#7 Monterrey Jazz
Ok, I'm running out of steam here, good thing there is only one more to go. The 7th race from Santa Anita The Goodwood (G1) for 3 and up
I love it when the connections take a horse out of his element, like running on turf a race before a big one such as this because it helps to darken the form just enough to take less savvy players off him. Such is the case with my top pick here, #2 Tiago.
Tiago comes into this race fresh with only his 2nd race since February. With regular rider Mike Smith on board look for Tiago to be sweeping up wide and late (does Smith know any other way to ride?).
Tiago is 8 times ITM with 4 wins in 8 tries at the distance and has won over 1.5 million at Santa Anita. Look for him to add to that total today.
The 2nd choice is #4 Colonel John who had a terrible trip in the Pacific Classic. Look for the Colonel to improve on that effort with some better luck today.
The question about the 3rd choice #10 Mine That Bird in my mind is whether or not he is legit or merely a flash in the pan. We'll find out a lot about that today. The Bird has been working well over the course and I understand Woolley is happy with the way he has been running.
The Bird also gets reunited with his Derby rider Calvin Borel. However, Cali is a long way from Kentucky and the riding styles on the cushion are not the same as at Churchill. I'm not sure Calvin will make the adjustment.
Finally, I have to throw in Tres Borrachos as the 4th. If there was any other speed in this race, Tres would not get mentioned; however, this is the only horse in this race that has shown any desire to show the way. Joe Talamo knows how to ride so don't be shocked if today is the day Tres Borrachos wires the field.
Choices
#2 Tiago
#4 Colonel John
#10 Mine That Bird
#5 Tres Borrachos
By the way, commencing next week and continuing for a total of 4 weeks I will be a guest commentator for Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. I will choose one race on the Saturday card for Calder Race Course and offer my own unique perspective on the race. I'm really looking forward to the opportunity to perhaps shed some light on the racing at my home track.
Until the next post. Good luck
Sunday, September 20, 2009
North of the Border
Not much to write home about regarding yesterday's prognostications from KY Downs. But then, you can't say I didn't warn you. Those races didn't cost me any money. Hope you did better.
Now off to Toronto for the Northern Dancer-G1 and the Woodbine Mile-G1 for 3 and up.
In the Northern Dancer I think #9 Marchfield gets the nod as the 5 yo showing excellent form at this time. Also gets the home field advantage with Mark Casse and Patrich Husbands over some of the invaders from the south.
The 2nd choice is the German-bred #2 Musketier (remember Salve Germania who just got flattered by Rutherienne). Musketier has won at this distance over this very track. Apparently Musketier got caught up in a bit of pace duel in the Sword Dancer. Look for Bejarano to mete out Musketier's speed a little more judiciously.
The 3rd choice is last year's winner #6 Champs Elysees. Last year's Northern Dancer winner has yet to win in 2009 but is coming 3rd off the layoff and should be ready for a big effort. Garrett Gomez comes all the way from Cali for the ride.
The 4th and final contender is #8 Just As Well trying the distance for the first time. You can't ignore any horse on grass with Julien Leparoux in the irons. It doesnt' hurt that Just As Well ran a very good 2nd to Gio Ponti in the Arlington Million last out.
Race 10 The Woodbine Mile
This race is very competitive as one might imagine when $1,000,000 is being contested. Is than American or Canadian, I wonder? Some sort of case can be made for nearly every horse in the race. I wish I could offer some unique insight into this race, but it seems to me that the usual suspects are the standouts here.
#8 Rahy's Attorney is the top pick. Toss out his last race, a mile and 3/8ths is too much for the gelding but cutting back to a mile should be right up his alley. Rahy's Attorney will race forwardly but is not a need to lead type which will serve him well as there are a couple of other potential pace factors in the race.
The 2nd choice, and not far behind the top, is the versatile #5 Bribon. The grade 1 winner loves the distance and showed last out that he hasn't lost anything on the turf. Bribon has won 3 in a row with Alan Garcia in the irons and will be making a late run to make it 4.
The 3rd choice #9 Ventura hasn't run since April but that shouldn't be a problem for the 2008 BC Fillie and Mare Sprint Champ. Ventura has no problem coming off the bench and winning big races. She finished 2nd to Rahy's Attorney in this race last year and comes back to even the score.
The 4th pick is a bit of a stretch here, but a horse for the course can't be ignored. #10 Jungle Wave won the G2 Play King last out at Woodbine and is 3 for 3 over the track. He'll have to step up his game to beat these, but may be worth a flyer at a long price. Certainly one to watch for exotics.
That's it for this week kiddies. Let's hope I do better than I did yesterday.
Good Luck
Now off to Toronto for the Northern Dancer-G1 and the Woodbine Mile-G1 for 3 and up.
In the Northern Dancer I think #9 Marchfield gets the nod as the 5 yo showing excellent form at this time. Also gets the home field advantage with Mark Casse and Patrich Husbands over some of the invaders from the south.
The 2nd choice is the German-bred #2 Musketier (remember Salve Germania who just got flattered by Rutherienne). Musketier has won at this distance over this very track. Apparently Musketier got caught up in a bit of pace duel in the Sword Dancer. Look for Bejarano to mete out Musketier's speed a little more judiciously.
The 3rd choice is last year's winner #6 Champs Elysees. Last year's Northern Dancer winner has yet to win in 2009 but is coming 3rd off the layoff and should be ready for a big effort. Garrett Gomez comes all the way from Cali for the ride.
The 4th and final contender is #8 Just As Well trying the distance for the first time. You can't ignore any horse on grass with Julien Leparoux in the irons. It doesnt' hurt that Just As Well ran a very good 2nd to Gio Ponti in the Arlington Million last out.
Race 10 The Woodbine Mile
This race is very competitive as one might imagine when $1,000,000 is being contested. Is than American or Canadian, I wonder? Some sort of case can be made for nearly every horse in the race. I wish I could offer some unique insight into this race, but it seems to me that the usual suspects are the standouts here.
#8 Rahy's Attorney is the top pick. Toss out his last race, a mile and 3/8ths is too much for the gelding but cutting back to a mile should be right up his alley. Rahy's Attorney will race forwardly but is not a need to lead type which will serve him well as there are a couple of other potential pace factors in the race.
The 2nd choice, and not far behind the top, is the versatile #5 Bribon. The grade 1 winner loves the distance and showed last out that he hasn't lost anything on the turf. Bribon has won 3 in a row with Alan Garcia in the irons and will be making a late run to make it 4.
The 3rd choice #9 Ventura hasn't run since April but that shouldn't be a problem for the 2008 BC Fillie and Mare Sprint Champ. Ventura has no problem coming off the bench and winning big races. She finished 2nd to Rahy's Attorney in this race last year and comes back to even the score.
The 4th pick is a bit of a stretch here, but a horse for the course can't be ignored. #10 Jungle Wave won the G2 Play King last out at Woodbine and is 3 for 3 over the track. He'll have to step up his game to beat these, but may be worth a flyer at a long price. Certainly one to watch for exotics.
That's it for this week kiddies. Let's hope I do better than I did yesterday.
Good Luck
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Saturday Stakes
Welcome back for another trip through the Public Handicapper races of the day. First a look at last Sunday's Pacific Classic from Del Mar.
Can't say I saw Richard's Kid coming, but I should have. After all with last weekend being Labor Day weekend and Jerry raising money for his kids (does he still do that?), it should have been the hunch play of the week.
Glad to see Einstein still has a big effort, and hopefully more, in him. Rail Trip also ran a good race although he couldn't quite get up in the end. I thought Colonel John had a bit of a troubled trip. Getting stuck behind horses like he was can take a lot out a runner. By the time he finally did get clear he had nothing left. Global Hunter was the only one of the contenders that didn't become some kind of a factor in the race.
But that was last week. This a brand new week with brand new races to handicap. Here we go to Delaware Park for the first race of the week the G3 Endine. A 6 furlong affair for fillies and mares 3 and up.
The Endine is a speed filled affair that really caused me to waffle back and forth a lot. You would think this race would set up nicely for a late runner, but I just don't think the two late runners in this race are good enough to get the job done. I don't even know why the #3 Iron Butterfly is in this race. She is a good claiming horse but seems out classed here. Marty Wolfson's #7 Pious Ashley disappointed her backers at 0.9/1 in and allowance at Calder last out. As much as I love to pull for Wolfson when he ships, I can't see this one winning here.
#2 Keep The Peace and #1 Sunday Geisha are to need to lead types and someone has to give. I think it will be Sunday Geisha as Keep The Peace has been showing a little more staying power recently.
#4 Lady Chace, #5 Casanova Killer, #6 Fearless Leader, and #8 Bold Union.
4 of Fearless Leader's 5 wins have come on off tracks and the forecast for today does not include rain, except for showers. If the track is wet she becomes a factor.
That leaves 3 and Bold Union is the top choice having finished 2 lengths behind the last horse to finish ahead of Rachel Alexandra, Sara Louise, last out. I do have some trepidation about her wheeling back so soon, 14 days, after that last race. However, that used to be commonplace. She should be able to sit behind the pace and take over as the others falter.
Casanova Killer is the 2nd choice to win. Jeremy Rose gets the reins and he seems to ride a lot of Klesaris winners. Casanova Killer also comes off a win in the Jenny Wade Hdcp at Penn National.
Lady Chace is choice number 3. Probably figures to benefit most from the pace scenario but may not be quite fast enough here. B.J. Hernandez, Jr. and Steve Margolis have been another potent jockey/trainer combo, so she has to figure in here somewhere.
Finally Keep The Peace will be the 4th choice. She just may go all the way, but she seems to get caught a lot judging by her 7 2nd place finishes. Still this may be her best distance and she'll be sure to get the early jump on the others.
#8 Bold Union 8-5 take 5-2
#5 Casanova Killer 6-1 take 9-1
#4 Lady Chace 6-1 take 9-1
#2 Keep The Peace 6-1 take 9-1
Next we go north of the border to Toronto and the La Prevoyante for Ontario sired 3 year old fillies at 1 mile on the turf.
Tops on the list here is the #10 Double Malt who has done this twice before against similar and in many cases the same competition. Double Malt was odds on in a field of 4 last out and figures to be the favorite again. At least, in a field of 10, maybe you can get something better than 1-2 for your money.
The 2nd choice is #1 Executive Deed who takes the blinkers off and stretches out to a mile. Passing Mood ran 2nd to the top choice 2 back in a good first turf effort and could move forward off that effort. Will likely give be overlaid if everyone pounds on Double Malt as you would expect.
The 3rd choice is #5 Koonunga Hill. Koonunga Hill showed promise as a 2 year old but has failed to move forward as a 3 year old. Her latest efforts with 3 consecutive ascending Beyer's suggest this may be a horse on the improve.
#10 Double Malt 1-1 take 3-2
#1 Executive Deed 5-1 take 8-1
#5 Koonunga Hill 6-1 take 9-1
The next race is from Belmont Park the G1 Garden City Handicap for 3 year olds at a mile and an eight on the turf.
As of this writing the race is still on the grass, but it is raining so the going will be soft. The 4 logical contenders for this race have all run well on softer turf courses which helps making this race probably the easiest one to handicap so far.
#1 Gozzip Girl is the one to beat. She is rested and has been pointed for this race after dominating the American Oaks. She was flattered in that race by Well Monied who ran well to finish 3rd next out in the Del Mar Oaks (G1).
I can't choose between #6 Shared Account and #8 Maram for 2nd choice. Both are proven on soft turf and eligible to move forward and challenge Gozzip Girl. Give them equal chances.
The 4th choice is the #9 Keertana who was just a length slower than Shared Account last out after going 4 wide in the Lake Placid. This is a tough spot for her, but she is a Grade 3 winner and has a chance to step up.
#1 Gozzip Girl 5-2 take 4-1
#6 Shared Account 4-1 take 6-1
#8 Maram 4-1 take 6-1
#9 Keertana 6-1 take 9-1
The last race, the G3 Presque Isle Downs Masters for f and m 3 and up has the potential to be the most exciting race of the day with lots of early pace and stone cold closers to take advantage.
The tough part was finding legitimate contenders with experience on all-weather surfaces. This will be the first try over Tapeta for logical contenders #2 Diamondrella and and #4 Game Face. The #5 Bear Now is 8 of 14 on sythetic surfaces, but figures to be part of the early pace scenario.
I decided that #9 Informed Decision makes the most sense as she is 4 for 4 on fake surfaces and has the stalking ability to stay close to the leaders.
If Diamondrella can handle the surface, she will be coming late and is the 2nd choice here as she comes off of a key race G1 victory over the turf at Belmont and has been resting since that race in early June.
Game Face is another with tactical speed to stay close early and only need to prove some ability on the surface to be in contention and is the 3rd choice here.
Finally, in a nod to proven ability over sythetic soil, Bear Now will be the 4th choice although I expect the anticipated pace scenario is not in her favor.
#9 Informed Decision 3-1 take 9-2
#2 Diamondrella 4-1 take 6-1
#4 Game Face 4-1 take 6-1
#5 Bear Now 6-1 take 9-1
As always, these opinions are worth exactly what you pay for them. If you think they make some sense then feel free to use them, but don't blame me if they turn out to be duds.
Enjoy the days races and good luck.
Can't say I saw Richard's Kid coming, but I should have. After all with last weekend being Labor Day weekend and Jerry raising money for his kids (does he still do that?), it should have been the hunch play of the week.
Glad to see Einstein still has a big effort, and hopefully more, in him. Rail Trip also ran a good race although he couldn't quite get up in the end. I thought Colonel John had a bit of a troubled trip. Getting stuck behind horses like he was can take a lot out a runner. By the time he finally did get clear he had nothing left. Global Hunter was the only one of the contenders that didn't become some kind of a factor in the race.
But that was last week. This a brand new week with brand new races to handicap. Here we go to Delaware Park for the first race of the week the G3 Endine. A 6 furlong affair for fillies and mares 3 and up.
The Endine is a speed filled affair that really caused me to waffle back and forth a lot. You would think this race would set up nicely for a late runner, but I just don't think the two late runners in this race are good enough to get the job done. I don't even know why the #3 Iron Butterfly is in this race. She is a good claiming horse but seems out classed here. Marty Wolfson's #7 Pious Ashley disappointed her backers at 0.9/1 in and allowance at Calder last out. As much as I love to pull for Wolfson when he ships, I can't see this one winning here.
#2 Keep The Peace and #1 Sunday Geisha are to need to lead types and someone has to give. I think it will be Sunday Geisha as Keep The Peace has been showing a little more staying power recently.
#4 Lady Chace, #5 Casanova Killer, #6 Fearless Leader, and #8 Bold Union.
4 of Fearless Leader's 5 wins have come on off tracks and the forecast for today does not include rain, except for showers. If the track is wet she becomes a factor.
That leaves 3 and Bold Union is the top choice having finished 2 lengths behind the last horse to finish ahead of Rachel Alexandra, Sara Louise, last out. I do have some trepidation about her wheeling back so soon, 14 days, after that last race. However, that used to be commonplace. She should be able to sit behind the pace and take over as the others falter.
Casanova Killer is the 2nd choice to win. Jeremy Rose gets the reins and he seems to ride a lot of Klesaris winners. Casanova Killer also comes off a win in the Jenny Wade Hdcp at Penn National.
Lady Chace is choice number 3. Probably figures to benefit most from the pace scenario but may not be quite fast enough here. B.J. Hernandez, Jr. and Steve Margolis have been another potent jockey/trainer combo, so she has to figure in here somewhere.
Finally Keep The Peace will be the 4th choice. She just may go all the way, but she seems to get caught a lot judging by her 7 2nd place finishes. Still this may be her best distance and she'll be sure to get the early jump on the others.
#8 Bold Union 8-5 take 5-2
#5 Casanova Killer 6-1 take 9-1
#4 Lady Chace 6-1 take 9-1
#2 Keep The Peace 6-1 take 9-1
Next we go north of the border to Toronto and the La Prevoyante for Ontario sired 3 year old fillies at 1 mile on the turf.
Tops on the list here is the #10 Double Malt who has done this twice before against similar and in many cases the same competition. Double Malt was odds on in a field of 4 last out and figures to be the favorite again. At least, in a field of 10, maybe you can get something better than 1-2 for your money.
The 2nd choice is #1 Executive Deed who takes the blinkers off and stretches out to a mile. Passing Mood ran 2nd to the top choice 2 back in a good first turf effort and could move forward off that effort. Will likely give be overlaid if everyone pounds on Double Malt as you would expect.
The 3rd choice is #5 Koonunga Hill. Koonunga Hill showed promise as a 2 year old but has failed to move forward as a 3 year old. Her latest efforts with 3 consecutive ascending Beyer's suggest this may be a horse on the improve.
#10 Double Malt 1-1 take 3-2
#1 Executive Deed 5-1 take 8-1
#5 Koonunga Hill 6-1 take 9-1
The next race is from Belmont Park the G1 Garden City Handicap for 3 year olds at a mile and an eight on the turf.
As of this writing the race is still on the grass, but it is raining so the going will be soft. The 4 logical contenders for this race have all run well on softer turf courses which helps making this race probably the easiest one to handicap so far.
#1 Gozzip Girl is the one to beat. She is rested and has been pointed for this race after dominating the American Oaks. She was flattered in that race by Well Monied who ran well to finish 3rd next out in the Del Mar Oaks (G1).
I can't choose between #6 Shared Account and #8 Maram for 2nd choice. Both are proven on soft turf and eligible to move forward and challenge Gozzip Girl. Give them equal chances.
The 4th choice is the #9 Keertana who was just a length slower than Shared Account last out after going 4 wide in the Lake Placid. This is a tough spot for her, but she is a Grade 3 winner and has a chance to step up.
#1 Gozzip Girl 5-2 take 4-1
#6 Shared Account 4-1 take 6-1
#8 Maram 4-1 take 6-1
#9 Keertana 6-1 take 9-1
The last race, the G3 Presque Isle Downs Masters for f and m 3 and up has the potential to be the most exciting race of the day with lots of early pace and stone cold closers to take advantage.
The tough part was finding legitimate contenders with experience on all-weather surfaces. This will be the first try over Tapeta for logical contenders #2 Diamondrella and and #4 Game Face. The #5 Bear Now is 8 of 14 on sythetic surfaces, but figures to be part of the early pace scenario.
I decided that #9 Informed Decision makes the most sense as she is 4 for 4 on fake surfaces and has the stalking ability to stay close to the leaders.
If Diamondrella can handle the surface, she will be coming late and is the 2nd choice here as she comes off of a key race G1 victory over the turf at Belmont and has been resting since that race in early June.
Game Face is another with tactical speed to stay close early and only need to prove some ability on the surface to be in contention and is the 3rd choice here.
Finally, in a nod to proven ability over sythetic soil, Bear Now will be the 4th choice although I expect the anticipated pace scenario is not in her favor.
#9 Informed Decision 3-1 take 9-2
#2 Diamondrella 4-1 take 6-1
#4 Game Face 4-1 take 6-1
#5 Bear Now 6-1 take 9-1
As always, these opinions are worth exactly what you pay for them. If you think they make some sense then feel free to use them, but don't blame me if they turn out to be duds.
Enjoy the days races and good luck.
Saturday, September 5, 2009
Rachel Faces Stiff Challenge In Woodward
Ah yes, back once again for another excercise in public humiliation known as The Chalk Eating Weasel Report.
To briefly recap last week. The Report managed to improve a little on the previous week coming up with a straight winner in the Traver's Stakes with Summer Bird. Capt. Candyman Can and Music Note also managed to flatter the Weasel. The Captain, in particular, running a gutsy race to gain a well deserved win via the DQ.
The Ballston Spa nearly caused me to fall out of my seat with the winner Salve Germania. I wanted to include Salve Germania as the 4th contender, I really did. Although an Irish bred, Salve Germania has German breeding on the Dam side. I have been reporting on how the importance of the stamina element represented by German breds is being recognized on the Continent. Probably the first Lasix didn't hurt. My gut said, "Contender.", but my mind looked at a seemingly lack luster past performance and said, "No." Oh what a coup that would've been.
The Ballston goes to show that it's the ones that get away that hurt. Anyone could've come up with the winners of the other three races. No great feat there. But Salve Germania! It will be awhile before you get a price like that on her again.
Now to this week's Public Handicapper races. Today I will give analysis and selections for 3 of the 4 races. The Pacific Classic is tomorrow, so I will post that one later. As a special bonus, I'll take a look at the Woodward as well (pssst hint, hint, Rachel looks really good here).
Just a note here. I have been using the Daily Racing Form's Formulator for this weeks races. There are some things I like about the Formulator and some things I don't care for so much. Sounds like a bonus edition of The Chalk Eating Weasel Report is in the offing some time in the future.
The first race is the 70k Peerless Springs from Saratoga. The Peerless Springs in One Mile on the old sod for 3 year old, New York bred, fillies.
There are 10 horses entered in this race, but, honestly, there are 3 horses where I just have to ask myself why they have been placed in such an ambitious spot. Since all 3 are owned by private individuals, I just have to conclude that it may be a bit of an ego thing with these owners wanting to see their horses running at The Spa. The three tosses are Eager Emma, Elegant Bass, and Freedom Rings. If one of these wins, then it won't be the first time I've had egg on my face.
The top choice for this race is the 7-2 morning line favorite #4 Our Golden Dream. In her last race, OGD finished 4th 2 lengths behind Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Maram and had a troubled trip to boot being checked at the half mile pole and steadied along the rail on the turn. Ascending Beyer's figures for the last 4 races indicate this is a 3 year old filly who is getting it. Favorite or not, this looks like the one to beat in this race.
The 2nd choice is #8 Soave at 5-1 in the morning line. Soave won a 30k Optional Claimer for non winners of 2 last out and now looks to step up her game. Kent Desormeaux has the reins. Soave is coming 3rd off a layoff into a stakes race. Trainer Thomas Bush is 28% (=5/2) with a positive ROI under these conditions. Hmm...3rd off layoff into a stakes race...actually sounds like a plan to me. At anything = or > than 4-1 Soave looks like a tasty choice to The Weasel.
The 3rd choice is the lone front-running speed in the race is the #7 Mother Russia. I can't tell you how much money I've lost betting against Linda Rice this season. Well, actually I can but I'm not going to. Last race out, Mother Russia wired the field at this distance and appears to be the only candidate that is capable of that feat again. Ramon Dominguez has ridden this horse 3 times and has won 3 times. Mother Russia is 4-1 in the morning line.
If you are looking for a long-shot try than the #2 Akilina at 12-1 in the morning line may be your huckleberry. Akilina is trained by noted turf trainer Clement Christophe and ridden by Rajiv Maragh. What you can't see in the racing form but can see if you look at the result chart in Formulator is that the 5th place finisher in Akilina's last race, Nedjma, won and was claimed in a 25k open claiming race next out. Along with Acquired Cat winning her next out, this becomes something of a hidden key race. Akilina has to get better to win, but if you can get a good price, take a shot. Be sure to use in the exotics.
The next PH race is the 9th at Saratoga, the G1 Forego for 3 and up contested at 7 furlongs.
Two horses stand out to me in this race so I'll just get down to it.
#2 Kodiak Kowboy has the to Beyer's for this race, has run in good form last two out, 3 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 over the surface. Seems to be the one to beat here. Trained by Larry Jones and ridden by Gabriel Saez, KK is also the 5-2 morning line favorite. I say,"If you can get 5-2 on KK, take it."
#4 Pyro is my 2nd choice and most likely where I will put my hard earned bucks if I play this race. Funny thing is, I burned a lot of money on Pyro as a 3 year old. Now he comes back and its like deja vu all over again. But...Pyro is coming off of a nice prep for bin Suroor Saeed who is 30% 2nd off layoffs coming into a G1 race. Again, sounds like a plan to me. Pyro is 4-1 in the morning line, and considering his checkered past, that seems about right.
Had a hard time going much deeper in this race, but after a lot of pondering I finally settled on the #7 Driven By Success for the 3rd choice. DBS has good early speed, which is always dangerous, but is not the only speed in the race, which is always dangerous to the early speed. Still DBS, a NY bred, has been competitive, if not entirely successful in open graded company finishing 3rd in the Metropolitan Hdcp and the Tom Fool Hdcp and would not be a complete surprise. Ramon Dominguez takes the seat, but Bruce Levine has been ice cold at the Spa so demand a price on this pony.
Finally we come to #6 Golden Trippi at 20-1 in the morning line. GT is the winner of Pyro's comeback race, so why 20-1. Perhaps its the lack of Graded success, but I would rather have GT than others in this race, so consider him a very tepid choice numero quatro.
Out to the other coast at Del Mar for the 8th race on that card The G1 Darly Debutante for 2 year old fillies.
The top choice here is the very unchalky 6-1 morning line runner #8 Repo. Repo has done nothing but win 3 of her 4 starts including two stakes victories. I don't understand the line makers reticence here except for possible the relatively low Beyer's figure last out. This is where I think reliance on Beyer's figures as a handicapping tool can be misleading. Repo stalked the pace last out, moved to win and won easily. It's not her fault the pacesetter was slow and its to Cory Nakatani's credit that he took no more from the horse than needed to win. But Cory will not be on Repo as we get a positive jockey change to Mr. Garrett Gomez for this race. Personally, I will be surprised if she goes off anything near 6-1 but will consider it a Prime bet if the line maker is correct.
#6 Mi Sueno is pick number 2 and the 9/5 morning line favorite. Mi Sueno comes off a G3 win where she turned the tables on 1st race foe and 3rd choice # 4 Necessary Evil. Both Mi Sueno and Necessary Evil are flattered that by the 4th place finisher in their last race, Camille C, who won a 100k overnight for Cal breds next out. Either of these two could take out the top choice Repo.
#3 Blind Luck is the 4th choice. 9-2 in the morning line, BL has won 2 races in 2 tries with speed to spare. The two races were a 4ok maiden claimer and a40k Starter allowance so she will need to step up in class some to compete here. But note she spotted the field over 7 lengths due to a bad start and still won by an easy 3.5 lengths.
Now for the race we all are waiting for the G1 Woodward.
#3 Rachel Alexandra's last out 116 is 6 points better than the next best Beyer's on the form and 9 points better than the next best last out, and she has improved her Beyer's for 10 consecutive races. How much better can she get? She is an obvious top pick and frankly, this race probably won't be playable.
As for the competition. #1 Da Tara has been disappointing since the 2008 Belmont Stakes, #2 Bullsbay seems unlikely to duplicate his 107 effort last out, #1a Cool Coal Man won by a huge margin last out and could upset the precocious filly, #4 Macho Again also ran his best ever figure last out in finishing 2nd, #5 It's a Bird (Birdonthewire not Birdstone) ships in for Marty Wolfson who won with Icon Project and is 18% with a positive ROI when shipping out for stakes races, #6 Asiatic Boy was considered for the Pacific Classic when Rachel declared her intentions showing how much confidence McLaughlin has here, and #7 Past The Point will have to regain his form from last fall to have a chance.
Here's the race in short hand
#3 Rachel Alexandra
#1a Cool Coal Man
#5 It'a A Bird
#2 Bullsbay
Good luck and see you tomorrow with the Pacific Classic
To briefly recap last week. The Report managed to improve a little on the previous week coming up with a straight winner in the Traver's Stakes with Summer Bird. Capt. Candyman Can and Music Note also managed to flatter the Weasel. The Captain, in particular, running a gutsy race to gain a well deserved win via the DQ.
The Ballston Spa nearly caused me to fall out of my seat with the winner Salve Germania. I wanted to include Salve Germania as the 4th contender, I really did. Although an Irish bred, Salve Germania has German breeding on the Dam side. I have been reporting on how the importance of the stamina element represented by German breds is being recognized on the Continent. Probably the first Lasix didn't hurt. My gut said, "Contender.", but my mind looked at a seemingly lack luster past performance and said, "No." Oh what a coup that would've been.
The Ballston goes to show that it's the ones that get away that hurt. Anyone could've come up with the winners of the other three races. No great feat there. But Salve Germania! It will be awhile before you get a price like that on her again.
Now to this week's Public Handicapper races. Today I will give analysis and selections for 3 of the 4 races. The Pacific Classic is tomorrow, so I will post that one later. As a special bonus, I'll take a look at the Woodward as well (pssst hint, hint, Rachel looks really good here).
Just a note here. I have been using the Daily Racing Form's Formulator for this weeks races. There are some things I like about the Formulator and some things I don't care for so much. Sounds like a bonus edition of The Chalk Eating Weasel Report is in the offing some time in the future.
The first race is the 70k Peerless Springs from Saratoga. The Peerless Springs in One Mile on the old sod for 3 year old, New York bred, fillies.
There are 10 horses entered in this race, but, honestly, there are 3 horses where I just have to ask myself why they have been placed in such an ambitious spot. Since all 3 are owned by private individuals, I just have to conclude that it may be a bit of an ego thing with these owners wanting to see their horses running at The Spa. The three tosses are Eager Emma, Elegant Bass, and Freedom Rings. If one of these wins, then it won't be the first time I've had egg on my face.
The top choice for this race is the 7-2 morning line favorite #4 Our Golden Dream. In her last race, OGD finished 4th 2 lengths behind Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Maram and had a troubled trip to boot being checked at the half mile pole and steadied along the rail on the turn. Ascending Beyer's figures for the last 4 races indicate this is a 3 year old filly who is getting it. Favorite or not, this looks like the one to beat in this race.
The 2nd choice is #8 Soave at 5-1 in the morning line. Soave won a 30k Optional Claimer for non winners of 2 last out and now looks to step up her game. Kent Desormeaux has the reins. Soave is coming 3rd off a layoff into a stakes race. Trainer Thomas Bush is 28% (=5/2) with a positive ROI under these conditions. Hmm...3rd off layoff into a stakes race...actually sounds like a plan to me. At anything = or > than 4-1 Soave looks like a tasty choice to The Weasel.
The 3rd choice is the lone front-running speed in the race is the #7 Mother Russia. I can't tell you how much money I've lost betting against Linda Rice this season. Well, actually I can but I'm not going to. Last race out, Mother Russia wired the field at this distance and appears to be the only candidate that is capable of that feat again. Ramon Dominguez has ridden this horse 3 times and has won 3 times. Mother Russia is 4-1 in the morning line.
If you are looking for a long-shot try than the #2 Akilina at 12-1 in the morning line may be your huckleberry. Akilina is trained by noted turf trainer Clement Christophe and ridden by Rajiv Maragh. What you can't see in the racing form but can see if you look at the result chart in Formulator is that the 5th place finisher in Akilina's last race, Nedjma, won and was claimed in a 25k open claiming race next out. Along with Acquired Cat winning her next out, this becomes something of a hidden key race. Akilina has to get better to win, but if you can get a good price, take a shot. Be sure to use in the exotics.
The next PH race is the 9th at Saratoga, the G1 Forego for 3 and up contested at 7 furlongs.
Two horses stand out to me in this race so I'll just get down to it.
#2 Kodiak Kowboy has the to Beyer's for this race, has run in good form last two out, 3 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 over the surface. Seems to be the one to beat here. Trained by Larry Jones and ridden by Gabriel Saez, KK is also the 5-2 morning line favorite. I say,"If you can get 5-2 on KK, take it."
#4 Pyro is my 2nd choice and most likely where I will put my hard earned bucks if I play this race. Funny thing is, I burned a lot of money on Pyro as a 3 year old. Now he comes back and its like deja vu all over again. But...Pyro is coming off of a nice prep for bin Suroor Saeed who is 30% 2nd off layoffs coming into a G1 race. Again, sounds like a plan to me. Pyro is 4-1 in the morning line, and considering his checkered past, that seems about right.
Had a hard time going much deeper in this race, but after a lot of pondering I finally settled on the #7 Driven By Success for the 3rd choice. DBS has good early speed, which is always dangerous, but is not the only speed in the race, which is always dangerous to the early speed. Still DBS, a NY bred, has been competitive, if not entirely successful in open graded company finishing 3rd in the Metropolitan Hdcp and the Tom Fool Hdcp and would not be a complete surprise. Ramon Dominguez takes the seat, but Bruce Levine has been ice cold at the Spa so demand a price on this pony.
Finally we come to #6 Golden Trippi at 20-1 in the morning line. GT is the winner of Pyro's comeback race, so why 20-1. Perhaps its the lack of Graded success, but I would rather have GT than others in this race, so consider him a very tepid choice numero quatro.
Out to the other coast at Del Mar for the 8th race on that card The G1 Darly Debutante for 2 year old fillies.
The top choice here is the very unchalky 6-1 morning line runner #8 Repo. Repo has done nothing but win 3 of her 4 starts including two stakes victories. I don't understand the line makers reticence here except for possible the relatively low Beyer's figure last out. This is where I think reliance on Beyer's figures as a handicapping tool can be misleading. Repo stalked the pace last out, moved to win and won easily. It's not her fault the pacesetter was slow and its to Cory Nakatani's credit that he took no more from the horse than needed to win. But Cory will not be on Repo as we get a positive jockey change to Mr. Garrett Gomez for this race. Personally, I will be surprised if she goes off anything near 6-1 but will consider it a Prime bet if the line maker is correct.
#6 Mi Sueno is pick number 2 and the 9/5 morning line favorite. Mi Sueno comes off a G3 win where she turned the tables on 1st race foe and 3rd choice # 4 Necessary Evil. Both Mi Sueno and Necessary Evil are flattered that by the 4th place finisher in their last race, Camille C, who won a 100k overnight for Cal breds next out. Either of these two could take out the top choice Repo.
#3 Blind Luck is the 4th choice. 9-2 in the morning line, BL has won 2 races in 2 tries with speed to spare. The two races were a 4ok maiden claimer and a40k Starter allowance so she will need to step up in class some to compete here. But note she spotted the field over 7 lengths due to a bad start and still won by an easy 3.5 lengths.
Now for the race we all are waiting for the G1 Woodward.
#3 Rachel Alexandra's last out 116 is 6 points better than the next best Beyer's on the form and 9 points better than the next best last out, and she has improved her Beyer's for 10 consecutive races. How much better can she get? She is an obvious top pick and frankly, this race probably won't be playable.
As for the competition. #1 Da Tara has been disappointing since the 2008 Belmont Stakes, #2 Bullsbay seems unlikely to duplicate his 107 effort last out, #1a Cool Coal Man won by a huge margin last out and could upset the precocious filly, #4 Macho Again also ran his best ever figure last out in finishing 2nd, #5 It's a Bird (Birdonthewire not Birdstone) ships in for Marty Wolfson who won with Icon Project and is 18% with a positive ROI when shipping out for stakes races, #6 Asiatic Boy was considered for the Pacific Classic when Rachel declared her intentions showing how much confidence McLaughlin has here, and #7 Past The Point will have to regain his form from last fall to have a chance.
Here's the race in short hand
#3 Rachel Alexandra
#1a Cool Coal Man
#5 It'a A Bird
#2 Bullsbay
Good luck and see you tomorrow with the Pacific Classic
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Saratoga Dreamin'
Hi folks. How ya doin'! I just flew in from Saratoga, and, boy are my arms tired. RIMSHOT!
But seriously. Got in at 1:00 am on Tuesday morning having to be at the day job that very day. Still, it was a great time even if the wagering did not go so well for yours truly. I failed to adjust to the closer bias on Friday. Saturday it was bombs away day with longshots hitting the board all over the place. Normally, not a problem. As you've probably observed if you've been following my exploits, the Weasel doesn't mind taking a price now and then. I just couldn't find the right price on Saturday.
Last weekend was my first visit to the Mecca of racing, Saratoga. Now that I've made the pilgrimage, all I can say is wow! The first thing that impressed me about the facility is the sheer size of the place. Television does not really give one a good perspective on how big the place actually is. The Weasel was also impressed by the number of betting windows that were open and how easy it was to hang out by a window to the last conceivable moment before placing a wager. Cheese and rice! At Gulfstream you have to get in line at 5 MTP and hope some old geezer isn't trying to play every trifecta combination 1 at a time to an equally geriatric teller that can't hear his own thoughts.
Today is move in day at the U. Which is also known as the University of Miami. So I will not be playing the game in all likelihood which is just as well since I was really underwhelmed with most of the Public Handicapper races for today. However, not to let my loyal public down. I came up with some selections for your perusal
The first race is the 6f Tax Free Shopping Distaff Stakes for Fillies and Mares 3 and up. Honestly, the line up for this race looks more like an Optional Claimer than a stakes race with several easy tosses such as #2 So So Devine, a 5 year old that has never run to par, #6 Espindola, a recent winner of a $5000 claiming race for non winners of 4, #8 Dell Reef, a 7 year old runner that has never even run close to par, and #11 Graceful Ginger who was claimed for 30k back in may only to be put on the shelf for 3 months.
The one horse that does stand out on the positive side is #10 Sunday In Malibu who actually seems to be getting some class relief coming into this weak field. Look for Jeremy Rose and Michael Trombetta to find the winner's circle here.
Another possible contender is the lucky #13 Miss Pauline ridden by Clinton Potts for Flint Stiles. Miss Pauline shows an interesting every other good race/bad race pattern last 4 out and is due for a good race.
The final contender for this race is the speed on the rail #1 Christina's World, a lightly raced 3 year old ridden by Gabriel Saez for Larry Jones who team up again less than an hour later at Monmouth if the forms are to be believed. There are other front running types in this race so the pace may be too much for her; however, the track has been favorable to speed and the rail so she may be worth a shot at a price.
Moving up, or is it down, the coast to Monmouth for the G3 Philip H. Iseling Stakes for 3 and up my top selection is #1 Researcher Carmouche for Bunco. Twice Researcher has run his best races 3rd off the layoff and, guess what, its 3 off time again for the 5 year old gelding. Researcher beat Ea and Dry Martini in April and looks to be the one to beat here to the Weasel.
#5 Coal Play ridden by Bravo for Zito is 2-1 ML favorite and my 2nd choice. Coal Play sports an E8 Quirin fig (meaning he's a confirmed front runner). However, every other horse in the race is an early/presser type and I don't think they'll let him run away and hide today. Coal Play has run two consecutive big Brisnet figures and shows a pattern of regressing after such a set up.
#3 Solar Flare ridden by the busy Gabriel Saez for Larry Jones is the 3rd choice. Solar Flare finished 6 lengths behind Coal Play last out but has run fast enough in the past to win here if Coal Play regresses and Researcher doesn't fire.
At Saratoga its the G1 Alabama Stakes for 3yo Fillies.
Yesterday the track was sloppy and thunderstorms are in the forecast for today. I'm guessing the going will be sloppy again today which will suit #3 Funny Moon just fine. Funny Moon, ridden by Alan Garcia for Christophe Clement, is 3 for 3 on an off track and the winner of the 1 1/4 mile Coaching Club American Oaks last out.
#5 Careless Jewel ships up from Delaware after winning the G2 Delaware Oaks and sports the highest speed figure of the bunch. If that figure is real than she will be the one to catch.
#6 Be Fair has already won the G3 Lake George this meet and did it over a sloppy Saratoga track, so she should also be considered if the rains come.
#8 Milwaukee Appeal has won some big money races, but most of them have been restricted to Canadian breds. We'll get a chance here to see just how good she is.
Finally we come to the G1 Del Mar Oaks for 3 yo fillies.
This race run on the all weather surface is being invaded, for the most part by Turf specialists.
#5 Well Monied (Rosario-Zucker) will be the one to beat and has the virtue of at least working out on the Del Mar main track.
#6 Strawberry Tart (M. Garcia-Bonde) has also been working on the main track and shows ascending speed figures, always a good sign for a 3 year old.
#9 Lexienos lures Alex Solis off last out winner Starlarks, so that ought to tell you something. Off course, Alex has been riding Lexienos too, so he knows both horses and chooses this one.
That's all for today. Its off to the U to bid my son adieu.
Good Luck
But seriously. Got in at 1:00 am on Tuesday morning having to be at the day job that very day. Still, it was a great time even if the wagering did not go so well for yours truly. I failed to adjust to the closer bias on Friday. Saturday it was bombs away day with longshots hitting the board all over the place. Normally, not a problem. As you've probably observed if you've been following my exploits, the Weasel doesn't mind taking a price now and then. I just couldn't find the right price on Saturday.
Last weekend was my first visit to the Mecca of racing, Saratoga. Now that I've made the pilgrimage, all I can say is wow! The first thing that impressed me about the facility is the sheer size of the place. Television does not really give one a good perspective on how big the place actually is. The Weasel was also impressed by the number of betting windows that were open and how easy it was to hang out by a window to the last conceivable moment before placing a wager. Cheese and rice! At Gulfstream you have to get in line at 5 MTP and hope some old geezer isn't trying to play every trifecta combination 1 at a time to an equally geriatric teller that can't hear his own thoughts.
Today is move in day at the U. Which is also known as the University of Miami. So I will not be playing the game in all likelihood which is just as well since I was really underwhelmed with most of the Public Handicapper races for today. However, not to let my loyal public down. I came up with some selections for your perusal
The first race is the 6f Tax Free Shopping Distaff Stakes for Fillies and Mares 3 and up. Honestly, the line up for this race looks more like an Optional Claimer than a stakes race with several easy tosses such as #2 So So Devine, a 5 year old that has never run to par, #6 Espindola, a recent winner of a $5000 claiming race for non winners of 4, #8 Dell Reef, a 7 year old runner that has never even run close to par, and #11 Graceful Ginger who was claimed for 30k back in may only to be put on the shelf for 3 months.
The one horse that does stand out on the positive side is #10 Sunday In Malibu who actually seems to be getting some class relief coming into this weak field. Look for Jeremy Rose and Michael Trombetta to find the winner's circle here.
Another possible contender is the lucky #13 Miss Pauline ridden by Clinton Potts for Flint Stiles. Miss Pauline shows an interesting every other good race/bad race pattern last 4 out and is due for a good race.
The final contender for this race is the speed on the rail #1 Christina's World, a lightly raced 3 year old ridden by Gabriel Saez for Larry Jones who team up again less than an hour later at Monmouth if the forms are to be believed. There are other front running types in this race so the pace may be too much for her; however, the track has been favorable to speed and the rail so she may be worth a shot at a price.
Moving up, or is it down, the coast to Monmouth for the G3 Philip H. Iseling Stakes for 3 and up my top selection is #1 Researcher Carmouche for Bunco. Twice Researcher has run his best races 3rd off the layoff and, guess what, its 3 off time again for the 5 year old gelding. Researcher beat Ea and Dry Martini in April and looks to be the one to beat here to the Weasel.
#5 Coal Play ridden by Bravo for Zito is 2-1 ML favorite and my 2nd choice. Coal Play sports an E8 Quirin fig (meaning he's a confirmed front runner). However, every other horse in the race is an early/presser type and I don't think they'll let him run away and hide today. Coal Play has run two consecutive big Brisnet figures and shows a pattern of regressing after such a set up.
#3 Solar Flare ridden by the busy Gabriel Saez for Larry Jones is the 3rd choice. Solar Flare finished 6 lengths behind Coal Play last out but has run fast enough in the past to win here if Coal Play regresses and Researcher doesn't fire.
At Saratoga its the G1 Alabama Stakes for 3yo Fillies.
Yesterday the track was sloppy and thunderstorms are in the forecast for today. I'm guessing the going will be sloppy again today which will suit #3 Funny Moon just fine. Funny Moon, ridden by Alan Garcia for Christophe Clement, is 3 for 3 on an off track and the winner of the 1 1/4 mile Coaching Club American Oaks last out.
#5 Careless Jewel ships up from Delaware after winning the G2 Delaware Oaks and sports the highest speed figure of the bunch. If that figure is real than she will be the one to catch.
#6 Be Fair has already won the G3 Lake George this meet and did it over a sloppy Saratoga track, so she should also be considered if the rains come.
#8 Milwaukee Appeal has won some big money races, but most of them have been restricted to Canadian breds. We'll get a chance here to see just how good she is.
Finally we come to the G1 Del Mar Oaks for 3 yo fillies.
This race run on the all weather surface is being invaded, for the most part by Turf specialists.
#5 Well Monied (Rosario-Zucker) will be the one to beat and has the virtue of at least working out on the Del Mar main track.
#6 Strawberry Tart (M. Garcia-Bonde) has also been working on the main track and shows ascending speed figures, always a good sign for a 3 year old.
#9 Lexienos lures Alex Solis off last out winner Starlarks, so that ought to tell you something. Off course, Alex has been riding Lexienos too, so he knows both horses and chooses this one.
That's all for today. Its off to the U to bid my son adieu.
Good Luck
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Leavin' On A Jet Plane
This will be my first physical trip to the Saratoga Race Course. Up until now I've only been there in my dreams. I already have Friday's card handicapped and am chomping at the bit for the Saturday past performances to become available. I hope they come out tomorrow so that my lap top can be left behind. My motel will not have wifi available. When the desk clerk was asked if they had wifi available in the room the response,"No, were in the mountains." When questioned about what being in the mountains had to do with internet access, I was informed that the library in town was open until 7:00.
So while I anxiously await Saturday's PP's I thought I might give a little update on the Handicapping the Handicapper project. Since the onset of this project, I have handicapped 161 races of various types. The table below shows the performance of my top 4 contenders.
The table shows that my top contender won nearly 30% of the races I handicapped. The 2nd almost 17%, 3rd 18% and 4th 14.5%. The reason each contender does not equal 161 is because there are occasionally races where I could not come up with 4, 3, or even 2 contenders I could make a legitimate case for (these races do not include any in which Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta participated).
So while I anxiously await Saturday's PP's I thought I might give a little update on the Handicapping the Handicapper project. Since the onset of this project, I have handicapped 161 races of various types. The table below shows the performance of my top 4 contenders.
The table shows that my top contender won nearly 30% of the races I handicapped. The 2nd almost 17%, 3rd 18% and 4th 14.5%. The reason each contender does not equal 161 is because there are occasionally races where I could not come up with 4, 3, or even 2 contenders I could make a legitimate case for (these races do not include any in which Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta participated). These percentages, or probabilities of the contenders winning translates to the odds shown in the next to last column on the right. These odds indicate what my win expectancy for each contender level. The final column is my win expectancy + 50%. The extra 50% allows for an extra margin of error. Thus, the minimum odds I am able to take at this time is 7/2 and I require 9/1 for my Number 4 contender. It is easy to see that I have not been playing too many favorites to win.
In the original article, I suggested that by dividing races in categories such as Maiden Claiming, Maiden races, claiming and so on, one might be able to better refine the personal odds requirement for each type. In addition, I suggested the use of a moving average of 30 races for each type of race. Please check the archives for the original post, "Handicapping the Handicapper" for the details.
To build a quickie database to test while I was accumulating my personal data, I kept a record from races run at Calder Race Course. I discovered that 30 races were an insufficient base to work from as the odds didn't make sense in some cases. I expanded the number to 50 races, and found that at 50, the results made more sense in that the top choice of the collective betting public performed better than the 2nd, than the 3rd, than the 4th.
To date, I have not handicapped any single class of races 50 times yet. The largest category is graded stakes races with 26. This is because I have been trying to concentrate on better quality races over the Summer. In addition, I have been trying to become a little less parochial in my handicapping habits, so lack of personal time requires me to be more selective about which races I choose to handicap and play.
So for now I will continue to use the generalized table above although I think it is time to start a new one. As the number of races increases, the table becomes less responsive to my current handicapping prowess.
The 161 races yielded a total of 66 win or exacta wagers made. 42 win wagers and 70 exacta wagers on a total of 38 races. So using this method of creating a contender odds line has certainly had the desired effect of cutting the number of races played.
Of the 42 win wagers made a paltry 6 were winners for a 14.3% win rate. At an average 6.88-1 odds for winning wagers this resulted in $0.13 profit for each dollar wagered. Note this is not a $2.00 flat bet result as my wager size may vary depending on whether or not I'm including an exacta wager on the race. Also there are couple of winning wagers where the winner was obviously superior to the field and the odds sufficiently tasty that I couldn't resist and abandoned my system and played the low odds overlay (yes, there can be low odds overlays). Removing these from the database would have the effect of lowering the win rate, but the average winning odds would increase.
Surprisingly, the real money has been made playing the exactas. Of the 70 exacta wagers (2 to 6 individual exacta wagers per race) made 5 resulted in cashing a ticket for a 7.1% success rate. However, at an average return of 39.4-1 this results in a return of $2.01 for each dollar wagered. No confessions are required for this figure as all exacta wagers conform to the template of playing my overlay horse underneath the other contenders in the race. Seemingly, a very effective way of playing the races if one is able to contend with the inevitable losing streaks that are going occur in between the winners. For me the bottom line is am I showing a profit. The results here indicate that this method of setting acceptable odds is working.
A word about the exacta. I have found through experience that if my overlay horse is at odds of 5-1 or less, the payoff on the exacta is not usually worth the risk, especially if the other contenders are at lower odds. In this case, I just increase the win bet and leave out the exacta. Also, placing an exacta bet on such horses effectively lowers the odds on the overlay horse in such a way that should the horse win the extra money required for the exacta has destroyed the overlay price.
At this point, I am confident that once I am able to use odds for specific types of races, the method will really fine tune the odds I am able to accept on a race. For instance, after 26 Graded Stakes races, the required odds for the top choice is 5-1 based on a top contender success rate of 23%, but overnight stakes would require only 3-2 based on a 50% top rate after 20 races. In my opinion, this is where the real value of this exercise lays.
In conclusion, the purpose of Handicapping the Handicapper is to find an objective method of establishing an odds line for top contenders in the race. While there is still more work to be done before declaring the method successful, the interim results reported here show great promise.
A final note. It seems unlikely that I will be able to provide Public Handicapper selections for this weekend, so you're on your own.
Til Next time. Good Luck!
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Bullseye for Bullsbay and The Weasel
Yesterday was a big day for The Chalk Eating Weasel Report. Here's a recap of how the day's action went down.
In the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes, the 3rd ranked contender Take The Points finally fulfilled his potential and out dueled Black Bear Island down the stretch. Financially, the race was a pass as no horse's odds ventured into the playable arena. However, there is nothing the Weasel likes more, other than cashing a ticket, than watching two of his contenders battle it out down the stretch.
In the Grade 1 Beverly D Stakes, you can't say that the Weasel did not alert you to the possibility of Dynaforce. At 7-1, Dynaforce to win was the correct play in the race. I say the "correct" play because I actually took the 8-1 Alnadana to win. Luckily, on any horse at > 5-1, I also play the win selection underneath the other win contenders yielding a nifty exacta worth $160.40 on $2.00 played. At the very least, 7-1 is nothing to sneeze at. I hope some of my readers took advantage of the value that was offered in this race.
The next race, The Arlington Million, went pretty much according to the way most people thought it would. Presious Passion went to the lead and the rest of the field was left to play catch up. To no one's great surprise, Gio Ponti proved to be the best horse in the race. If you followed my advice, this race was a pass. I was afraid Presious Passion might build up an insurmountable lead as he did in the United Nations at Monmouth, but that turned out not to be the case. Perhaps the soft ground took its toll on the front-running gelding as he began to wilt on the turn and had nothing left for the stretch run.
Finally, the day's coup de grace. Bullsbay at 18-1 was the upset winner of the Whitney. To say I was high on Bullsbay's chances would not be truthful. Still I liked his chances better than Commentator who I thought was overrated. I liked his chances better than Tizway's who figured to get used up early chasing Commentator. And I felt his last race on the plastic surface was an anomaly. Bullsbay, does show 2 wins and 4 more in the money finishes on "all weather" surfaces, but each surface is different. I don't know if he has ever shown any ability on Hollywood's surface or not. Of all the horses running, Bullsbay seemed most likely to improve off of his last effort which made him a tepid contender needing at least 9-1 and fully worthy of a wager at 18-1. I do hope you joined the Weasel in cashing that ticket.
Next week I will be at the historic Saratoga Race Track on Friday and Saturday. I will try to post Public Handicapper races for next Saturday, but I don't know at this time about the availability of a wireless connection or time to actually make the post. However, if anyone within reading distance of this would like to meet at some time during those two days, I'd love to meet you. Also if anyone ever benefits by anything I write here, I'd like to here about that as well. C'mon stroke my 'er...ego and show the Weasel some love. Who's a good Weasel? You're a good Weasel! ;=)
Until the next post. Good Luck
In the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes, the 3rd ranked contender Take The Points finally fulfilled his potential and out dueled Black Bear Island down the stretch. Financially, the race was a pass as no horse's odds ventured into the playable arena. However, there is nothing the Weasel likes more, other than cashing a ticket, than watching two of his contenders battle it out down the stretch.
In the Grade 1 Beverly D Stakes, you can't say that the Weasel did not alert you to the possibility of Dynaforce. At 7-1, Dynaforce to win was the correct play in the race. I say the "correct" play because I actually took the 8-1 Alnadana to win. Luckily, on any horse at > 5-1, I also play the win selection underneath the other win contenders yielding a nifty exacta worth $160.40 on $2.00 played. At the very least, 7-1 is nothing to sneeze at. I hope some of my readers took advantage of the value that was offered in this race.
The next race, The Arlington Million, went pretty much according to the way most people thought it would. Presious Passion went to the lead and the rest of the field was left to play catch up. To no one's great surprise, Gio Ponti proved to be the best horse in the race. If you followed my advice, this race was a pass. I was afraid Presious Passion might build up an insurmountable lead as he did in the United Nations at Monmouth, but that turned out not to be the case. Perhaps the soft ground took its toll on the front-running gelding as he began to wilt on the turn and had nothing left for the stretch run.
Finally, the day's coup de grace. Bullsbay at 18-1 was the upset winner of the Whitney. To say I was high on Bullsbay's chances would not be truthful. Still I liked his chances better than Commentator who I thought was overrated. I liked his chances better than Tizway's who figured to get used up early chasing Commentator. And I felt his last race on the plastic surface was an anomaly. Bullsbay, does show 2 wins and 4 more in the money finishes on "all weather" surfaces, but each surface is different. I don't know if he has ever shown any ability on Hollywood's surface or not. Of all the horses running, Bullsbay seemed most likely to improve off of his last effort which made him a tepid contender needing at least 9-1 and fully worthy of a wager at 18-1. I do hope you joined the Weasel in cashing that ticket.
Next week I will be at the historic Saratoga Race Track on Friday and Saturday. I will try to post Public Handicapper races for next Saturday, but I don't know at this time about the availability of a wireless connection or time to actually make the post. However, if anyone within reading distance of this would like to meet at some time during those two days, I'd love to meet you. Also if anyone ever benefits by anything I write here, I'd like to here about that as well. C'mon stroke my 'er...ego and show the Weasel some love. Who's a good Weasel? You're a good Weasel! ;=)
Until the next post. Good Luck
Saturday, August 8, 2009
Arlington Million
Today is Arlington Million day. We have a highly competitive group for the Arlington Million as well as the other 3 Public Handicapper races today. Arlington Park was off the turf on Friday and the going today will likely be something less than firm.
The first race to cover is the mile and a quarter G1 Secretariat Stakes for 3 year olds. The 1A entry, Driving Snow is an early scratch from the race making the job a little easier.
The 1 Cliffy's Future has never run on Turf before and without much turf pedigree to speak of, The Cliff's Edge (Gulch), appears to be misplaced here. The other easy elimination is Hoosier Kingdom who has been tearing up the Indiana State Breds but will find the opposition here a little more accomplished.
The remaining contenders seem very evenly matched, and you can make a case for each of them. However, they can't all win so we have to take a stand somewhere and this is how I see it.
The top selection is the 8 horse Reb at 5 to 1 in the morning line that price seems pretty fair if it holds up. Winner of 3 straight including the Grade 2 American Derby last out. Julien Leparoux gets the call on this son of Stormy Atlantic, and we'll be looking for him to make a late run.
The second choice ships over off a lackluster Group 1 effort at Longchamp at a Mile and a half. The shorter distance should be to the liking of the number 9 Black Bear Island winner of a Group 2 contest back in may. Additionally, Black Bear Island should feel right at home on a soggy turf course.
The third choice is a horse I liked quite a bit earlier in the year, the 7 horse Take The Points. Although yet to show a win on the turf, the surface switch seems to have been a wake up call for the Pletcher trainee. The comment line says Take The Points hung in finishing 3rd to Battle of Hastings in the Virginia Derby. I think the rider change to Kent Desormeaux may be the difference which finally puts this underachiever over the top.
The fourth choice is the 10 horse Giant Oak. Giant Oak is the horse for course here with 2 wins in 3 tries at Arlington Park. Giant Oak had a troubled trip as the favorite last out and figures to improve position in this race with a better trip.
I think you can also make some sort of case for Proceed Bee, Laureate Conductor, Quite A Handful, and Oil Man. So if you wanted to go in that direction I wouldn't blame you.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
8 Reb /3-1/ 9-2
9 Black Bear Island/ 4-1 /6-1
7 Take The Points /5-1/ 8-1
10 Giant Oak/ 6-1 /9-1
The next race is the 1 and 3/16 Mile G1 Beverly D. Stakes for Fillies and Mares for 3 and older.
For this race I again go to the entry ridden by Julien Leparoux for the top choice. No I don't have a particular thing for Leparoux. I do, along with Kent Desormeaux, consider him to be among the best turf riders in North America. Something about those Acadians. In this case, I do consider the #2 Pure Clan to be the best horse in the race. Pure Clan is a multiple graded stakes winner including last years American Oaks and Leparoux always seems to get her best out of her. She has 5 wins in 8 tries over grass 2 wins in 3 attempts at the distance and is 1 for 1 over the Arlington course.
The next selection is the foreign shipper #1 Alnadana has been showing very strong recent form in some classy Group 2 and 3 races in France and England including a win last out in the Group 3 Prix Messidor. She won that race by 3 lengths and, according to the Racing Post, http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/alnadana-maisons-laffitte-france-alnadana-dominates-prix-messidor/610071/, the margin of victory could have been more.
The next selection is the #7 Dynaforce ridden by, are you ready, Kent Desormeaux. At 10-1 in the morning line, Dynaforce may be the over looked horse in the race if the ML is accurate. Dynaforce showed a nice move forward in her last race from the previous and any further improvement would put her right into contention in this spot.
For the 4th selection, I was leaning towards the 6 Tizaqueena until I learned that Alnadana is likely to contest her for the lead. Not wanting to speedy types as contenders on grass I moved to the California shipper #4 Black Mamba ridden by Garrett Gomez. If this multiple graded stakes winner can duplicate her last effort she should be a factor at the end.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
2 Pure Clan /3-1 /9-2
1 Alnadana/ 4-1/ 6-1
7 Dynaforce /4-1/ 6-1
4 Black Mamba /6-1 /9-1
The Main Event today is, of course, The Arlington Million Stakes-G1 1 and 1/4 miles for 3 yo and up
For this race the Weasel is going to go out on a limb and make, oh let's see, Ummm #6 Gio Ponti the favorite. Gio Ponti has won 3 consecutive G1 races making a 5 wide move last out to take the Man O War last out. Ramon Dominquez gets the call today. Ramon cost me a lot of money in, I think it was the 3rd race, last Saturday at Saratoga with his aggressive ride that the stewards chose to forgive. Maybe this week I'll have him on my side, but I doubt it.
#2 Presious Passion is another hot horse who has been toying with the competition at Monmouth. Today PP will have to survive the challenge from "cheap" speed in the form of Recapturetheglory. It looks like a mismatch, but if he can stay with PP for a 1/2, maybe it will take enough out of the front running gelding to give the rest a chance.
Next is the crowd favorite #1 Einstein who never runs a bad race and returns to his favorite surface. Einstein has never won the Million. I for one will be pulling for him to put this notch in his belt and may even bet on it if the price is right.
This field is so deep that G1 winner #5 Mr. Sidney is 10/1 in the morning line. The distance may not be his best, but is he stays at 10/1 or better this winner of 5 out of 7 on the grass would certainly be worth a look.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
6 Gio Ponti /2-1 /3-1
2 Presious Passion/ 9-2/ 7-1
1 Einstein /5-1/ 8-1
5 Mr. Sidney /6-1/ 9-1
Finally we move over to Saratoga, where your's truly will be in attendance this coming Friday and Saturday, for the G1 Whitney Hdcp.
#7 Commentator is the sentimental and ML Favorite, but he starts from the disadvantageous outside post, has the naturally speedy Tizway to the inside to contend with, and a much stronger field than the statebreds he beat up on last out. Commentator will have three accomplished closers chasing after him down the stretch.
The numero uno contender here is #4 Macho Again. I made the mistake of discounting Macho Again in the last race he was in that I handicapped the G1 Stephen Foster Hdcp. Having been burned once, I won't ignore him this time out. Doesn't mean I will play him, but I won't be surprised this time out
Next up will be the star-crossed #2 Asiatic Boy with 2 second place finishes in the states. Asiatic Boy will benefit from an inside post position and I expect he will be there at the end again.
The 3rd choice will be #6 Dry Martini. The 6yo gelding has been thriving since moving to Barclay Tagg's barn. Like the previous two, the pace set up should be great for him. I think, realistically, any of the three can win this race. Whoever gets the trip wins, its that close.
The 4th pick is #3 Bullsbay. Throw out his last effort over the plastic surface. Probably a notch below the top 3 picks, keep in your trifecta at the very least.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds/ Overlay (play odds)
4 Macho Again /7-2 /5-1
2 Asiatic Boy/ 7-2/ 5-1
6 Dry Martini /7-2/ 5-1
3 Bullsbay /6-1 /9-1
Those are the picks for the day. Hope you find them useful. Good luck
This just in. The Weasel has learned that the turf at Arlington has been rated yielding and that Recapturetheglory has been scratched from the Arlington Million. In my opinion, this tilts the pace scenario to the benefit of Pressious Passion. However we will have to watch the earlier races to see how speed holds up over the course. The odds line below reflects my change of opinion on the race.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
6 Gio Ponti/ 3-1/ 9-2
2 Presious Passion /3-1 /9-2
1 Einstein/ 5-1/ 8-1
5 Mr. Sidney/ 6-1 /9-1
The first race to cover is the mile and a quarter G1 Secretariat Stakes for 3 year olds. The 1A entry, Driving Snow is an early scratch from the race making the job a little easier.
The 1 Cliffy's Future has never run on Turf before and without much turf pedigree to speak of, The Cliff's Edge (Gulch), appears to be misplaced here. The other easy elimination is Hoosier Kingdom who has been tearing up the Indiana State Breds but will find the opposition here a little more accomplished.
The remaining contenders seem very evenly matched, and you can make a case for each of them. However, they can't all win so we have to take a stand somewhere and this is how I see it.
The top selection is the 8 horse Reb at 5 to 1 in the morning line that price seems pretty fair if it holds up. Winner of 3 straight including the Grade 2 American Derby last out. Julien Leparoux gets the call on this son of Stormy Atlantic, and we'll be looking for him to make a late run.
The second choice ships over off a lackluster Group 1 effort at Longchamp at a Mile and a half. The shorter distance should be to the liking of the number 9 Black Bear Island winner of a Group 2 contest back in may. Additionally, Black Bear Island should feel right at home on a soggy turf course.
The third choice is a horse I liked quite a bit earlier in the year, the 7 horse Take The Points. Although yet to show a win on the turf, the surface switch seems to have been a wake up call for the Pletcher trainee. The comment line says Take The Points hung in finishing 3rd to Battle of Hastings in the Virginia Derby. I think the rider change to Kent Desormeaux may be the difference which finally puts this underachiever over the top.
The fourth choice is the 10 horse Giant Oak. Giant Oak is the horse for course here with 2 wins in 3 tries at Arlington Park. Giant Oak had a troubled trip as the favorite last out and figures to improve position in this race with a better trip.
I think you can also make some sort of case for Proceed Bee, Laureate Conductor, Quite A Handful, and Oil Man. So if you wanted to go in that direction I wouldn't blame you.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
8 Reb /3-1/ 9-2
9 Black Bear Island/ 4-1 /6-1
7 Take The Points /5-1/ 8-1
10 Giant Oak/ 6-1 /9-1
The next race is the 1 and 3/16 Mile G1 Beverly D. Stakes for Fillies and Mares for 3 and older.
For this race I again go to the entry ridden by Julien Leparoux for the top choice. No I don't have a particular thing for Leparoux. I do, along with Kent Desormeaux, consider him to be among the best turf riders in North America. Something about those Acadians. In this case, I do consider the #2 Pure Clan to be the best horse in the race. Pure Clan is a multiple graded stakes winner including last years American Oaks and Leparoux always seems to get her best out of her. She has 5 wins in 8 tries over grass 2 wins in 3 attempts at the distance and is 1 for 1 over the Arlington course.
The next selection is the foreign shipper #1 Alnadana has been showing very strong recent form in some classy Group 2 and 3 races in France and England including a win last out in the Group 3 Prix Messidor. She won that race by 3 lengths and, according to the Racing Post, http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/alnadana-maisons-laffitte-france-alnadana-dominates-prix-messidor/610071/, the margin of victory could have been more.
The next selection is the #7 Dynaforce ridden by, are you ready, Kent Desormeaux. At 10-1 in the morning line, Dynaforce may be the over looked horse in the race if the ML is accurate. Dynaforce showed a nice move forward in her last race from the previous and any further improvement would put her right into contention in this spot.
For the 4th selection, I was leaning towards the 6 Tizaqueena until I learned that Alnadana is likely to contest her for the lead. Not wanting to speedy types as contenders on grass I moved to the California shipper #4 Black Mamba ridden by Garrett Gomez. If this multiple graded stakes winner can duplicate her last effort she should be a factor at the end.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
2 Pure Clan /3-1 /9-2
1 Alnadana/ 4-1/ 6-1
7 Dynaforce /4-1/ 6-1
4 Black Mamba /6-1 /9-1
The Main Event today is, of course, The Arlington Million Stakes-G1 1 and 1/4 miles for 3 yo and up
For this race the Weasel is going to go out on a limb and make, oh let's see, Ummm #6 Gio Ponti the favorite. Gio Ponti has won 3 consecutive G1 races making a 5 wide move last out to take the Man O War last out. Ramon Dominquez gets the call today. Ramon cost me a lot of money in, I think it was the 3rd race, last Saturday at Saratoga with his aggressive ride that the stewards chose to forgive. Maybe this week I'll have him on my side, but I doubt it.
#2 Presious Passion is another hot horse who has been toying with the competition at Monmouth. Today PP will have to survive the challenge from "cheap" speed in the form of Recapturetheglory. It looks like a mismatch, but if he can stay with PP for a 1/2, maybe it will take enough out of the front running gelding to give the rest a chance.
Next is the crowd favorite #1 Einstein who never runs a bad race and returns to his favorite surface. Einstein has never won the Million. I for one will be pulling for him to put this notch in his belt and may even bet on it if the price is right.
This field is so deep that G1 winner #5 Mr. Sidney is 10/1 in the morning line. The distance may not be his best, but is he stays at 10/1 or better this winner of 5 out of 7 on the grass would certainly be worth a look.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
6 Gio Ponti /2-1 /3-1
2 Presious Passion/ 9-2/ 7-1
1 Einstein /5-1/ 8-1
5 Mr. Sidney /6-1/ 9-1
Finally we move over to Saratoga, where your's truly will be in attendance this coming Friday and Saturday, for the G1 Whitney Hdcp.
#7 Commentator is the sentimental and ML Favorite, but he starts from the disadvantageous outside post, has the naturally speedy Tizway to the inside to contend with, and a much stronger field than the statebreds he beat up on last out. Commentator will have three accomplished closers chasing after him down the stretch.
The numero uno contender here is #4 Macho Again. I made the mistake of discounting Macho Again in the last race he was in that I handicapped the G1 Stephen Foster Hdcp. Having been burned once, I won't ignore him this time out. Doesn't mean I will play him, but I won't be surprised this time out
Next up will be the star-crossed #2 Asiatic Boy with 2 second place finishes in the states. Asiatic Boy will benefit from an inside post position and I expect he will be there at the end again.
The 3rd choice will be #6 Dry Martini. The 6yo gelding has been thriving since moving to Barclay Tagg's barn. Like the previous two, the pace set up should be great for him. I think, realistically, any of the three can win this race. Whoever gets the trip wins, its that close.
The 4th pick is #3 Bullsbay. Throw out his last effort over the plastic surface. Probably a notch below the top 3 picks, keep in your trifecta at the very least.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds/ Overlay (play odds)
4 Macho Again /7-2 /5-1
2 Asiatic Boy/ 7-2/ 5-1
6 Dry Martini /7-2/ 5-1
3 Bullsbay /6-1 /9-1
Those are the picks for the day. Hope you find them useful. Good luck
This just in. The Weasel has learned that the turf at Arlington has been rated yielding and that Recapturetheglory has been scratched from the Arlington Million. In my opinion, this tilts the pace scenario to the benefit of Pressious Passion. However we will have to watch the earlier races to see how speed holds up over the course. The odds line below reflects my change of opinion on the race.
The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
6 Gio Ponti/ 3-1/ 9-2
2 Presious Passion /3-1 /9-2
1 Einstein/ 5-1/ 8-1
5 Mr. Sidney/ 6-1 /9-1
Friday, August 7, 2009
Coming To A Spa Near You
The Chalk Eating Weasel is very happy to announce that he will be in attendance, live and in person, at the race track at Saratoga Springs, NY on August 14 and 15. I look forward to meeting any of my fellow TBA bloggers who may be in attendance or any readers that find anything I do here of value. Drop me a line and maybe we can put our heads together and take some money away from these well heeled Summer-time patrons. Now that's taxation of the rich I can support.
I am also happy to tell you that I have already made selections for the Public Handicapper races of the week. Unfortunately, three of the races are on the turf at Arlington. Normally, not a problem, but the weather for tomorrow is a little iffy with thunderstorms predicted for overnight and tomorrow morning. I will have to wait until tomorrow morning and see if the races will still be on turf and check the scratches before I make final decisions. So tune in later.
I am also happy to tell you that I have already made selections for the Public Handicapper races of the week. Unfortunately, three of the races are on the turf at Arlington. Normally, not a problem, but the weather for tomorrow is a little iffy with thunderstorms predicted for overnight and tomorrow morning. I will have to wait until tomorrow morning and see if the races will still be on turf and check the scratches before I make final decisions. So tune in later.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Scratches in the Lady Secret
If you've been paying attention, you have already noted that there have been some scratches in the Lady Secret. No doubt the sloppy going has something to do with this. Among the scratches is my top selection Spritely. No worries, a check the PP's of the remaining contenders shows that they have all shown an ability to handle the off going. Just slide everyone up one slot in the contender list.
An addition to the contender list is the #5 Devil House who now becomes the lone E8 horse in the race with the scratch of Spritely. I don't really know about Monmouth, but many times a sealed sloppy track at Calder gets very fast and if DH can get loose they may not catch her today.
Wow that was a big crowd getting their picture taken in the winner's circle for race 9!
One last word. While all the contenders have shown ability in off going, the 2 horse Annabil is 3 wins in 7 tries with 6 finishes in the money in the off going. Also, in race 9, the 5 horse who won didn't immediately get the lead as the 9 horse shot out of the gate and crossed the entire field to get to the rail, but he/she was 2nd down the back stretch, took over and never looked back.
This post has been powered by a frosty mint julep
Good luck
An addition to the contender list is the #5 Devil House who now becomes the lone E8 horse in the race with the scratch of Spritely. I don't really know about Monmouth, but many times a sealed sloppy track at Calder gets very fast and if DH can get loose they may not catch her today.
Wow that was a big crowd getting their picture taken in the winner's circle for race 9!
One last word. While all the contenders have shown ability in off going, the 2 horse Annabil is 3 wins in 7 tries with 6 finishes in the money in the off going. Also, in race 9, the 5 horse who won didn't immediately get the lead as the 9 horse shot out of the gate and crossed the entire field to get to the rail, but he/she was 2nd down the back stretch, took over and never looked back.
This post has been powered by a frosty mint julep
Good luck
From the Spa To The Shore
Back from the simulcast room at Gulfstream where I spent the day pondering the puzzles of Saratoga. Forever Together was no puzzle in frustrating Rutherienne once again. Warrior's Reward did run better this time, as expected, but not well enough to beat Kensei in the Jim Dandy. Good day for Steve Asmussen winning the W. Va Derby then turning around for the Jim Dandy to complete the exacta. Just missed with Strawberry Tart. Since I haven't actually seen the race, I don't really know what happened to the other contenders.
Always a glutton for punishment, I have one more selection as the Public Handicapper contest spans the weekend moving down to the Jersey shore for a Haskell preliminary race the 100k Lady's Secret Stakes for fillies and mares 3 and up.
An interesting race as it seems all the best horses are starting from the difficult outside post positions. What's a poor handicapper to do? Well you can either hold your nose and pick them anyways, go inside and hope for an upset, or try a little of both.
At least the top choice is not a compromise as the Weasel likes the #6 Spritely trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by J. R. Velazquez. While Spritely sports an E8 Quirin Figure and likes to be on or near the lead, she has shown she is not a "need to lead" type which is going to serve her well with the speedy Devil House to her inside.
The 2nd choice is in the statiscally challenged outside #8 post. Jasmine Gardens has been showing good form for trainer Albertrani. She has won twice over the grounds in two tries and has shown a liking for the distance. Former Calder apprentice (no more) Paco Lopez gets the call.
The 3rd selection, #7 Ask The Moon is coming out of a nice stakes win over the course and should be on or near the lead early. Joe Bravo certainly knows his way around the track so I have to give her a chance here.
Finally, if you're shopping for a price, take a look at # 2 Annabill. This 6 yo mare is no stranger to the winner's circle having made it a respectable 18 in 45 tries. She has won a stakes event this year and showed good improvement in her 2nd race over the Monmouth oval. If you want to try your luck with this crafty veteran you're going to have to project further improvement and demand a price. What you do get for your leap of faith is a 25% winner in Elvis Trujillo and Steve DiMauro who wins Non Graded stakes at a 22% clip with a positive ROI.
I'll try to be in on the action in this race provided I'm not at our own shore watching the dog frolic in the surf.
Good Luck until next time
The 3rd choice
Always a glutton for punishment, I have one more selection as the Public Handicapper contest spans the weekend moving down to the Jersey shore for a Haskell preliminary race the 100k Lady's Secret Stakes for fillies and mares 3 and up.
An interesting race as it seems all the best horses are starting from the difficult outside post positions. What's a poor handicapper to do? Well you can either hold your nose and pick them anyways, go inside and hope for an upset, or try a little of both.
At least the top choice is not a compromise as the Weasel likes the #6 Spritely trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by J. R. Velazquez. While Spritely sports an E8 Quirin Figure and likes to be on or near the lead, she has shown she is not a "need to lead" type which is going to serve her well with the speedy Devil House to her inside.
The 2nd choice is in the statiscally challenged outside #8 post. Jasmine Gardens has been showing good form for trainer Albertrani. She has won twice over the grounds in two tries and has shown a liking for the distance. Former Calder apprentice (no more) Paco Lopez gets the call.
The 3rd selection, #7 Ask The Moon is coming out of a nice stakes win over the course and should be on or near the lead early. Joe Bravo certainly knows his way around the track so I have to give her a chance here.
Finally, if you're shopping for a price, take a look at # 2 Annabill. This 6 yo mare is no stranger to the winner's circle having made it a respectable 18 in 45 tries. She has won a stakes event this year and showed good improvement in her 2nd race over the Monmouth oval. If you want to try your luck with this crafty veteran you're going to have to project further improvement and demand a price. What you do get for your leap of faith is a 25% winner in Elvis Trujillo and Steve DiMauro who wins Non Graded stakes at a 22% clip with a positive ROI.
I'll try to be in on the action in this race provided I'm not at our own shore watching the dog frolic in the surf.
Good Luck until next time
The 3rd choice
Saturday, August 1, 2009
Life Happens
I'm sorry its been so long but sometimes life gets in the way of the things we'd rather be doing. Two weeks ago I was up to Orlando with my wife and daughter for the UCF open house. Last week, I was having ATT U-Verse installed and was down all Saturday morning and into the afternoon. I have been forced to work through lunch at my job which cuts down some of my most productive handicapping time. This morning my wife went out to a dead battery in her car, so here I sit with 90 minutes to first post at Calder and no races on the card handicapped.
Fortunately, I went through most of the Saratoga card at the beach last night, and I have the Public handicapper race from Del Mar as well. The fourth race is from Monmouth tomorrow, so I'll get to that later.
Ok, this is an abbreviated Weasel Saturday as I still have to shower and wash of the battery changing grime before schlepping over to Gulfstream to watch the Saratoga races. Unless I change my mind and choose to play the home game that is.
The G1 Diana Race 9
I'm still trying to figure out if Rutherienne is running today at the spa or tomorrow at the shore as she is dual entered. However, Saratoga just posted their scratches and she's still in as far as I can tell so I'll go the direction for now.
Still the top choice is #10 Forever Together followed by #3 Rutherienne (if in) #2 Quiet Meadow who seems to be finally getting it and #4 Indescribable. If Rutherienne scratches move the other two up 1 position and throw in #6 Carribean Sunset. As a side note, I would really like Criticism, but the Spa turf is tough on front runners, but sometimes a soggy course can favor the leaders so watch how the surface playing.
G2 Jim Dandy Race 10
The pick is #4 Warrior's Reward who had a bad start in the Dwyer and managed to finish 3rd making up a lot of ground in the process. 2nd choice is #3 Kensei, the winner of the Dwyer. #5 Charitable Man is the 3rd pick and #1 Saratoga Sinner with Leparoux comes off a 6 month layoff to be the 4th choice. My only trepidation about SS is why put a G3 winning 3 year old on the shelf during what could be said prime time for 3 yo racing? But if he's healthy, he is capable of beating all of these.
G2 San Clemente Hdcp Race 8 Del Mar
I'm looking for bit of an upset here with #3 Strawberry Tart in what seems to me to be a somewhat weak G2 field. Even though 7/2 in the ML ST might slip under the radar and give a decent price. The 2nd choice is #9 Acting Lady who is a legit G2 winner with Joe Talamo aboard. The 3rd pick is #4 Carlsbad trying the turf for the 1st time certainly has the credentials to win here if she takes to the surface. Her pedigree 3 turf works suggest she will, but she will also have to put away Oliginowile on the front end to have a chance. The fourth pick is #1 Nan who has been chasing the best 3 year old fillies all year. This may be her race to finally shine.
That's it for an abbreviated Weasel Report. Check back later for the 4th pick from Monmouth tomorrow.
Fortunately, I went through most of the Saratoga card at the beach last night, and I have the Public handicapper race from Del Mar as well. The fourth race is from Monmouth tomorrow, so I'll get to that later.
Ok, this is an abbreviated Weasel Saturday as I still have to shower and wash of the battery changing grime before schlepping over to Gulfstream to watch the Saratoga races. Unless I change my mind and choose to play the home game that is.
The G1 Diana Race 9
I'm still trying to figure out if Rutherienne is running today at the spa or tomorrow at the shore as she is dual entered. However, Saratoga just posted their scratches and she's still in as far as I can tell so I'll go the direction for now.
Still the top choice is #10 Forever Together followed by #3 Rutherienne (if in) #2 Quiet Meadow who seems to be finally getting it and #4 Indescribable. If Rutherienne scratches move the other two up 1 position and throw in #6 Carribean Sunset. As a side note, I would really like Criticism, but the Spa turf is tough on front runners, but sometimes a soggy course can favor the leaders so watch how the surface playing.
G2 Jim Dandy Race 10
The pick is #4 Warrior's Reward who had a bad start in the Dwyer and managed to finish 3rd making up a lot of ground in the process. 2nd choice is #3 Kensei, the winner of the Dwyer. #5 Charitable Man is the 3rd pick and #1 Saratoga Sinner with Leparoux comes off a 6 month layoff to be the 4th choice. My only trepidation about SS is why put a G3 winning 3 year old on the shelf during what could be said prime time for 3 yo racing? But if he's healthy, he is capable of beating all of these.
G2 San Clemente Hdcp Race 8 Del Mar
I'm looking for bit of an upset here with #3 Strawberry Tart in what seems to me to be a somewhat weak G2 field. Even though 7/2 in the ML ST might slip under the radar and give a decent price. The 2nd choice is #9 Acting Lady who is a legit G2 winner with Joe Talamo aboard. The 3rd pick is #4 Carlsbad trying the turf for the 1st time certainly has the credentials to win here if she takes to the surface. Her pedigree 3 turf works suggest she will, but she will also have to put away Oliginowile on the front end to have a chance. The fourth pick is #1 Nan who has been chasing the best 3 year old fillies all year. This may be her race to finally shine.
That's it for an abbreviated Weasel Report. Check back later for the 4th pick from Monmouth tomorrow.
Friday, July 17, 2009
HANA Goes To Mountaineer
No Public Handicapper picks this week. Taking the daughter to the University of Central Florida for an open house. Don't even know what the races are yet and won't have time to look at them.
However, not to leave you totally lost, I have the HANA race of the week. A $5000.00 claiming event for fillies and mares 3 and up who have never won two races. It is race 2 on your program and post time is 7:25.
My top choice for the race is the 2 horse Wynn For Mary who seems to have found a home and a distance in West Virginny. Since moving up from Tampa, the lightly raced 4 year old has won 2 of 4 and finished in the money the other two tries. In addition, stretching out to a mile seemed to be just what the doctor ordered as Wynn For Mary ran a 79 Brisnet Speed Figure compared to 61 in her previous race. I think she can move forward off of that effort. Of course 5k claimers for older non-winners of two don't exactly possess perfect choices. I generally shy away from low % trainers and jockeys, but this is Mountaineer and I didn't see a Pletcher or Dutrow entry, so I'll chance it if the odds stay at the morning line 4-1 or better.
The 2nd choice would probably be the top except for the 9th post which is statistically more difficult to win from at this distance. The 9 horse, Flaming Victory has shown good recent form, but consistency isn't exactly a forte of cheap claiming horses, and at 6 years of age she isn't likely to show much improvement.
The 3rd and 4th choice are the 4, Cat's Got Class, and the 5,Alibi Baby. Not much to choose from between them. Both have two wins in 21 tries. Cat's Got Class has at least shown the ability to pass some horses where as Alibi Baby has been kind of a Merry-Go-Round horse. Both have at least raced above par for the course at least once in their careers which is more than you can say for most of the other contestants.
Well, whatever you do, good luck and enjoy the race. I'll be back next week with more stakes races to ponder over
However, not to leave you totally lost, I have the HANA race of the week. A $5000.00 claiming event for fillies and mares 3 and up who have never won two races. It is race 2 on your program and post time is 7:25.
My top choice for the race is the 2 horse Wynn For Mary who seems to have found a home and a distance in West Virginny. Since moving up from Tampa, the lightly raced 4 year old has won 2 of 4 and finished in the money the other two tries. In addition, stretching out to a mile seemed to be just what the doctor ordered as Wynn For Mary ran a 79 Brisnet Speed Figure compared to 61 in her previous race. I think she can move forward off of that effort. Of course 5k claimers for older non-winners of two don't exactly possess perfect choices. I generally shy away from low % trainers and jockeys, but this is Mountaineer and I didn't see a Pletcher or Dutrow entry, so I'll chance it if the odds stay at the morning line 4-1 or better.
The 2nd choice would probably be the top except for the 9th post which is statistically more difficult to win from at this distance. The 9 horse, Flaming Victory has shown good recent form, but consistency isn't exactly a forte of cheap claiming horses, and at 6 years of age she isn't likely to show much improvement.
The 3rd and 4th choice are the 4, Cat's Got Class, and the 5,Alibi Baby. Not much to choose from between them. Both have two wins in 21 tries. Cat's Got Class has at least shown the ability to pass some horses where as Alibi Baby has been kind of a Merry-Go-Round horse. Both have at least raced above par for the course at least once in their careers which is more than you can say for most of the other contestants.
Well, whatever you do, good luck and enjoy the race. I'll be back next week with more stakes races to ponder over
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Summit Of Speed and PH Picks for July 11
Another Saturday, another day of big stakes and small wagers. Last week was a good one, let's go for two in a row. Starting with the Public Handicapper races for today.
1 3/8 Mile (Inner Turf) Man O War G1 Race 7 at Belmont Park
Gio Ponti
5-2
4-1
Midships
4-1
6-1
Quijano
9-2
7-1
Dancing Forever
5-1
8-1
Shapes up to be a competitive race in which any of 6 horses has a legit shot. Someone will need a good trip. Homefield advantage goes to Gio Ponti with Ramon Dominquez aboard. GP comes off a G1 win in the Manhattan and is 3 for 4 over the course. He is stretching out an extra furlong for the first time, but I don't think that will be a problem. The hot horse is Midships coming off 3 straight grade wins. Figure pattern suggests Midships may not have enough to win this race. German bred Quijano is 6 for 6 at the distance and a Group 1 winner at Milan. The gelding just missed at the Northern Dancer G1 last year at Woodbine and comes back to the states for another go. Quijano will be my PH pick. Dancing Forever comes back 2nd off layoff from a good Breeder's Cup Turf effort. Last race was clearly a tune up for bigger things, and this may be it. You can also throw Grand Courturier and Marsh Side into the mix as well, but you have to narrow it down somehow, and sometimes hard decisions have to be made.
1 Mile Turf Battlefield Stakes 70k Monmouth PP 4:20
#8 Get Serious
5-2
4-1
#9 Jet Propulsion
4-1
6-1
#6 Independent George
9-2
7-1
#3 Steve's Double
5-1
8-1
Get Serious is our horse for the course with 4 wins in 6 tries including a similar type race 2 back. Get Serious along with Jet Propulsion will both be aiming to set the early fractions and Get Serious has the advantage of being inside JP. Truth is, this race is set up nicely for a closer such as Independent George who will be my PH selection. For Seinfeld fans Independent George is also the hunch play of the day. Steve's Double is coming off a long layoff, but has won richer races than this one and trainer Ronny Werner is 27% with a +ROI with layoffs of greater than 90 days. Elvis Trujillo in the irons doesn't hurt the chances either.
1 1/4 Mile (Turf) Arlington Handicap G3 6:40
#12 Cosmonaut
5-2
4-1
# 13 Thabazimbi
4-1
6-1
#9 Just As Well
9-2
7-1
#11 Stream Cat
5-1
8-1
One of the good things about the Arlington turf course at this distance is there does not appear to be any significant post position bias. This is a good thing as all my contenders for this race will be starting from the outer posts. Cosmonaut finds an easier spot to run than last out when he faced the likes of Gio Ponti and Marsh Side in the Manhattan. Cosmonaut is 2 for 4 on the course and 2 for 6 at the distance and has Robbie Albarado to guide him. #13 Thazimbi has been freshened after giving a good effort last out in the Louisville G3. Should like the distance and Leparoux is one of the best. Just As Well has yet to win this year, but showed some promise of improvement in his last two outings. Stream Cat won this race last year off a layoff and hopes to do the same again this year.
1 1/4 Mile Hollywood Gold Cup G1 7:30
Hol G1 AW
7:30
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#10 Life Is Sweet
5-2
4-1
#4 Bullsbay
4-1
6-1
#5 Parading
9-2
7-1
#12 Informed
5-1
8-1
A very competitive race, but strengthwise I think it is lacking in strength for a G1 affair. I think this is why Shirreffs has chosen this spot to enter his 2nd best filly Life Is Sweet who was 2nd best to Zenyatta last out. Bullsbay will be a force to be reckoned with if he can run back to his recent performances. I could rank Parading higher, but not knowing how he will handle the cushion track caused me to downgrade him just a little. However, Kent Desormeaux knows how to ride and if he has any affinity for the course he'll be there in the mix at the end. Informed will be hampered by starting from the 12th post, but the G2 Californian winner is 3 for 7 on the track and should have a shot. Mast Track and Tres Borrachos are two other to keep in mind for Trifecta purposes.
And now for some Summit of Speed Racing
5f (Turf) Bob Umphrey Turf Spring Championship Handicap
#5 Mr. Nightlinger
5-2
4-1
#8 Possetothemax
9-2
7-1
#3 Midnight Ridge
4-1
6-1
#7 Ron Bob And Dave
5-1
8-1
If this race stays on the Turf, which as of this writing it appears that it will, than forget the odds line as it pertains to Mr. Nightlinger, he is clearly the best in the field. That being said, Possetothemax is 3 for 4 on CRC Turf including an overnight win last out and should be hanging around for at least a minor award. Midnight Ridge gets rider Paco Lopez aboard. He will be contending for the early lead, and Paco will have him hugging the rail all the way if he can. However the turns on the turf course are tight which is probably why runners in these 5f sprints at CRC generally do better starting from the outside. Finally I'll thrown Ron Bob And Dave shipping in from Hollywood to make his stakes debut. He's run some nice figures and could take advantage of an early speed duel. But really, all these other guys are racing for 2nd IMOH
I'm going to skip the 5f J J's Dream for 2yo fillies. It appears to be a major crap shoot in my opinion.
6 f Azalea Stakes G3 for 3yo fillies
#7 Kays and Jays
5-2
4-1
#3 Royal Card
9-2
7-1
#2 Underground
4-1
6-1
#9 First Passage
5-1
8-1
Kays and Jays turnsback after being overmatched in Hollywood and comes back to her preferred distance of 6f. Jose Lezcano gets the call. Royal Card is one of 3 Marty Wolfson entries in this race and has really awakened under Marty's tutelage after he took over from Todd Pletcher 2 races ago. Underground maybe taking a huge step up in only her 2nd race, but the Baffert trainee ran big first out, so why not. Mike Smith is the rider. First Passage is another Wolfson runner. She is a winner of an overnight 100k stakes last out, but the outside post could hinder her here.
6f Carry Back Stakes G2 for 3yo 3:56
#1 You Lucky Mann
5-2
4-1
#5 Not For Silver
9-2
7-1
#2 Ask Joe
4-1
6-1
#4 Prince Joshua
5-1
8-1
You really have to watch the last race between You Lucky Mann and Prince Joshua to believe it. You Lucky Mann caught Prince Joshua on the turn into the stretch. Jockey Jermaine Bridgmohan appeared, to my eyes, to relax on YLM thinking it was over, but it was not as Prince Joshua fought back and JB had to get really busy to pull the race out. Still YLM is the better horse. Not For Silver comes out of a really nice race on Preakness day and may get the gold today. Ask Joe, the Fair Grounds Sugar Bowl winner, ridden by Paco Lopez is one that could benefit from a hot pace scenario. Prince Joshua showed a lot of courage last out and could prevail if he can avoid a bounce out of that race.
6f Princess Rooney Hdcp G1 for fillies and mares 3 up 4:26
#8 Dubai Majesty
5-2
4-1
#6 Game Face
9-2
7-1
#7 Keep The Peace
4-1
6-1
#1 Jessica Is Back
5-1
8-1
Well, I've been known to go off half-cocked before and I am doing so again. I don't think Indian Blessing will be at her best today. I was informed that Baffert excused the last effort due to a leg infection; however the infection didn't seem to effect her the first 5 furlongs of that race. In addition, I still don't like the last workout which was nearly 2 seconds off the previous. It was still good for most, but not a Baffert type work. So, I'm looking to Dubai Majesty who showed some guts in the Winning Colors last out. Jamie (don't blame me) Theriot has won on her before, and if I'm right about IB, he should win on her again. Todd Pletcher's Game Face is a consistent graded stakes runner and figures to do well here. Keep The Peace ran 3rd in DM's last race and would've finished, at least, 2nd had she not been impeded by Lady Chace in the stretch, so you got to give her a chance here. Finally, Wolfson runner Jessica Is Back has some speed, has the rail and Paco Lopez. She, Could, Go, All, The, Way!
6f Smile Sprint Handicap-G2 4:55
#4 Benny The Bull
5-2
4-1
#5 Eaton's Gift
9-2
7-1
#6 Yesbyjimminy
4-1
6-1
#2 How's Your Halo
5-1
8-1
Once again, forget the odds line for Benny. This one is Benny The Bull and the usual suspects. Eaton's Gift comes Turf to Dirt and 2nd off layoff for Dale Romans and Jose Lezcano. Then Yesbyjimminy and How's Your Halo round out the usual suspects. Ikigai, or maybe Icky Guy, does not appear to be the same horse that won the Mr. Prospector back in January at GulfStream.
Well that about covers it for today. You've certainly gotten more than your money's worth and I hope you find something in all of this that can be used to your benefit.
1 3/8 Mile (Inner Turf) Man O War G1 Race 7 at Belmont Park
Gio Ponti
5-2
4-1
Midships
4-1
6-1
Quijano
9-2
7-1
Dancing Forever
5-1
8-1
Shapes up to be a competitive race in which any of 6 horses has a legit shot. Someone will need a good trip. Homefield advantage goes to Gio Ponti with Ramon Dominquez aboard. GP comes off a G1 win in the Manhattan and is 3 for 4 over the course. He is stretching out an extra furlong for the first time, but I don't think that will be a problem. The hot horse is Midships coming off 3 straight grade wins. Figure pattern suggests Midships may not have enough to win this race. German bred Quijano is 6 for 6 at the distance and a Group 1 winner at Milan. The gelding just missed at the Northern Dancer G1 last year at Woodbine and comes back to the states for another go. Quijano will be my PH pick. Dancing Forever comes back 2nd off layoff from a good Breeder's Cup Turf effort. Last race was clearly a tune up for bigger things, and this may be it. You can also throw Grand Courturier and Marsh Side into the mix as well, but you have to narrow it down somehow, and sometimes hard decisions have to be made.
1 Mile Turf Battlefield Stakes 70k Monmouth PP 4:20
#8 Get Serious
5-2
4-1
#9 Jet Propulsion
4-1
6-1
#6 Independent George
9-2
7-1
#3 Steve's Double
5-1
8-1
Get Serious is our horse for the course with 4 wins in 6 tries including a similar type race 2 back. Get Serious along with Jet Propulsion will both be aiming to set the early fractions and Get Serious has the advantage of being inside JP. Truth is, this race is set up nicely for a closer such as Independent George who will be my PH selection. For Seinfeld fans Independent George is also the hunch play of the day. Steve's Double is coming off a long layoff, but has won richer races than this one and trainer Ronny Werner is 27% with a +ROI with layoffs of greater than 90 days. Elvis Trujillo in the irons doesn't hurt the chances either.
1 1/4 Mile (Turf) Arlington Handicap G3 6:40
#12 Cosmonaut
5-2
4-1
# 13 Thabazimbi
4-1
6-1
#9 Just As Well
9-2
7-1
#11 Stream Cat
5-1
8-1
One of the good things about the Arlington turf course at this distance is there does not appear to be any significant post position bias. This is a good thing as all my contenders for this race will be starting from the outer posts. Cosmonaut finds an easier spot to run than last out when he faced the likes of Gio Ponti and Marsh Side in the Manhattan. Cosmonaut is 2 for 4 on the course and 2 for 6 at the distance and has Robbie Albarado to guide him. #13 Thazimbi has been freshened after giving a good effort last out in the Louisville G3. Should like the distance and Leparoux is one of the best. Just As Well has yet to win this year, but showed some promise of improvement in his last two outings. Stream Cat won this race last year off a layoff and hopes to do the same again this year.
1 1/4 Mile Hollywood Gold Cup G1 7:30
Hol G1 AW
7:30
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#10 Life Is Sweet
5-2
4-1
#4 Bullsbay
4-1
6-1
#5 Parading
9-2
7-1
#12 Informed
5-1
8-1
A very competitive race, but strengthwise I think it is lacking in strength for a G1 affair. I think this is why Shirreffs has chosen this spot to enter his 2nd best filly Life Is Sweet who was 2nd best to Zenyatta last out. Bullsbay will be a force to be reckoned with if he can run back to his recent performances. I could rank Parading higher, but not knowing how he will handle the cushion track caused me to downgrade him just a little. However, Kent Desormeaux knows how to ride and if he has any affinity for the course he'll be there in the mix at the end. Informed will be hampered by starting from the 12th post, but the G2 Californian winner is 3 for 7 on the track and should have a shot. Mast Track and Tres Borrachos are two other to keep in mind for Trifecta purposes.
And now for some Summit of Speed Racing
5f (Turf) Bob Umphrey Turf Spring Championship Handicap
#5 Mr. Nightlinger
5-2
4-1
#8 Possetothemax
9-2
7-1
#3 Midnight Ridge
4-1
6-1
#7 Ron Bob And Dave
5-1
8-1
If this race stays on the Turf, which as of this writing it appears that it will, than forget the odds line as it pertains to Mr. Nightlinger, he is clearly the best in the field. That being said, Possetothemax is 3 for 4 on CRC Turf including an overnight win last out and should be hanging around for at least a minor award. Midnight Ridge gets rider Paco Lopez aboard. He will be contending for the early lead, and Paco will have him hugging the rail all the way if he can. However the turns on the turf course are tight which is probably why runners in these 5f sprints at CRC generally do better starting from the outside. Finally I'll thrown Ron Bob And Dave shipping in from Hollywood to make his stakes debut. He's run some nice figures and could take advantage of an early speed duel. But really, all these other guys are racing for 2nd IMOH
I'm going to skip the 5f J J's Dream for 2yo fillies. It appears to be a major crap shoot in my opinion.
6 f Azalea Stakes G3 for 3yo fillies
#7 Kays and Jays
5-2
4-1
#3 Royal Card
9-2
7-1
#2 Underground
4-1
6-1
#9 First Passage
5-1
8-1
Kays and Jays turnsback after being overmatched in Hollywood and comes back to her preferred distance of 6f. Jose Lezcano gets the call. Royal Card is one of 3 Marty Wolfson entries in this race and has really awakened under Marty's tutelage after he took over from Todd Pletcher 2 races ago. Underground maybe taking a huge step up in only her 2nd race, but the Baffert trainee ran big first out, so why not. Mike Smith is the rider. First Passage is another Wolfson runner. She is a winner of an overnight 100k stakes last out, but the outside post could hinder her here.
6f Carry Back Stakes G2 for 3yo 3:56
#1 You Lucky Mann
5-2
4-1
#5 Not For Silver
9-2
7-1
#2 Ask Joe
4-1
6-1
#4 Prince Joshua
5-1
8-1
You really have to watch the last race between You Lucky Mann and Prince Joshua to believe it. You Lucky Mann caught Prince Joshua on the turn into the stretch. Jockey Jermaine Bridgmohan appeared, to my eyes, to relax on YLM thinking it was over, but it was not as Prince Joshua fought back and JB had to get really busy to pull the race out. Still YLM is the better horse. Not For Silver comes out of a really nice race on Preakness day and may get the gold today. Ask Joe, the Fair Grounds Sugar Bowl winner, ridden by Paco Lopez is one that could benefit from a hot pace scenario. Prince Joshua showed a lot of courage last out and could prevail if he can avoid a bounce out of that race.
6f Princess Rooney Hdcp G1 for fillies and mares 3 up 4:26
#8 Dubai Majesty
5-2
4-1
#6 Game Face
9-2
7-1
#7 Keep The Peace
4-1
6-1
#1 Jessica Is Back
5-1
8-1
Well, I've been known to go off half-cocked before and I am doing so again. I don't think Indian Blessing will be at her best today. I was informed that Baffert excused the last effort due to a leg infection; however the infection didn't seem to effect her the first 5 furlongs of that race. In addition, I still don't like the last workout which was nearly 2 seconds off the previous. It was still good for most, but not a Baffert type work. So, I'm looking to Dubai Majesty who showed some guts in the Winning Colors last out. Jamie (don't blame me) Theriot has won on her before, and if I'm right about IB, he should win on her again. Todd Pletcher's Game Face is a consistent graded stakes runner and figures to do well here. Keep The Peace ran 3rd in DM's last race and would've finished, at least, 2nd had she not been impeded by Lady Chace in the stretch, so you got to give her a chance here. Finally, Wolfson runner Jessica Is Back has some speed, has the rail and Paco Lopez. She, Could, Go, All, The, Way!
6f Smile Sprint Handicap-G2 4:55
#4 Benny The Bull
5-2
4-1
#5 Eaton's Gift
9-2
7-1
#6 Yesbyjimminy
4-1
6-1
#2 How's Your Halo
5-1
8-1
Once again, forget the odds line for Benny. This one is Benny The Bull and the usual suspects. Eaton's Gift comes Turf to Dirt and 2nd off layoff for Dale Romans and Jose Lezcano. Then Yesbyjimminy and How's Your Halo round out the usual suspects. Ikigai, or maybe Icky Guy, does not appear to be the same horse that won the Mr. Prospector back in January at GulfStream.
Well that about covers it for today. You've certainly gotten more than your money's worth and I hope you find something in all of this that can be used to your benefit.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Big City Man No More
I went to the Bloodhorse.com to see if I could find an explanation for Indian Blessing's poor performance last out when the coincidence of coincidences occurred. Big City Man winner of this year's Dubai Golden Shaheen, in which Indian Blessing finished 2nd, died July 5th of a strangulated cecum. Apparently he showed signs of distress following his workout, was treated for colic and eventually taken to the clinic where surgery was performed and the ailment discovered. Read the full story here https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/51550/big-city-man-dies-of-strangulated-cecum.
Meanwhile, watching the last race on Indian Blessing, I have to question her soundness. In case your wondering about my sudden interest in Indian Blessing, it is due to the Summit of Speed and the G1 Princess Rooney Handicap which will be run at CRC on Saturday.
When I saw Indian Blessing was entered my first reaction was, "One race down." However, after further perusal of the form I began to wonder. Knowing that G1 type horses often dog it somewhat when coming back after rest, I found the last result of Indian Blessing's to be a puzzle all the same. Maybe she loses in a Grade 2 or even 3 race, but an overnight stakes? The comment reads,"weakened final furlong"
I watched the race and Indian Blessing appeared to be running along fine and seemed sure to catch the front running Coco Belle when she basically just ran out of gas.
Add to this her workouts. Bob Baffert works his horses fast. This is well known. On June 30 Indian Blessing runs a 4f bullet in 0:46 flat. July 6 over the same surface and distance its 48 and fifth. Baffert can't be happy about that. Indian Blessing has been heavily favored in at least her last 10 races. She may be a huge bet against this Saturday if heavily favored again.
Meanwhile, watching the last race on Indian Blessing, I have to question her soundness. In case your wondering about my sudden interest in Indian Blessing, it is due to the Summit of Speed and the G1 Princess Rooney Handicap which will be run at CRC on Saturday.
When I saw Indian Blessing was entered my first reaction was, "One race down." However, after further perusal of the form I began to wonder. Knowing that G1 type horses often dog it somewhat when coming back after rest, I found the last result of Indian Blessing's to be a puzzle all the same. Maybe she loses in a Grade 2 or even 3 race, but an overnight stakes? The comment reads,"weakened final furlong"
I watched the race and Indian Blessing appeared to be running along fine and seemed sure to catch the front running Coco Belle when she basically just ran out of gas.
Add to this her workouts. Bob Baffert works his horses fast. This is well known. On June 30 Indian Blessing runs a 4f bullet in 0:46 flat. July 6 over the same surface and distance its 48 and fifth. Baffert can't be happy about that. Indian Blessing has been heavily favored in at least her last 10 races. She may be a huge bet against this Saturday if heavily favored again.
Saturday, July 4, 2009
4th of July Star Spangled PH and HANA picks
All right then! Back for another week of making a public fool of myself. Last week wasn't too bad. Can't say I didn't warn you about Mary's Follies in the Boiling Springs at Monmouth. Too bad the price didn't justify the risk there. Had a straight chalky winner in Minnesota when the race was moved off the turf and Si Si Mon Amie scratched making Mizzcan'tbewrong the odds on favorite. Got beat in the other two races by longshots that really just didn't figure. Maneke just got nipped at the wire and the Colonial Downs race was won by horse ridden by Rosemary Homeister, Jr. Rosie used to ride a lot down here at Calder. She is a competent journeyman jockey, but she never gets the really good horses in the big races. However, every once in a while she'll pull one off for you. You just have to wait a long time for those every once in a whiles.
So here are this week's selections and analysis. Good luck
1 3/8 Mile (Turf) G1 United Nations Stakes Monmouth
MTH R10 G1
5:20
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Strike A Deal
5-2
4-1
#5 Court Vision
4-1
6-1
#6 Lauro
9-2
7-1
#1 Banrock
5-1
8-1
It almost looks like a rematch of the Monmouth race 3 weeks ago with many of the same players. The difference maker is going to be the distance. Presious Passion barely held off Banrock to win. I don't think Elvis will be able to stretch that horse out another 2 furlongs against this crowd, but I've been wrong before. #2 Strike A Deal has been the distance before and sits near the pace which should help keep him out of trouble and ready to move when the time comes. #5 Court Vision has never gone the distance but is too classy a horse to pass on if the price is right. #6 Lauro could be this week's Mary's Follies. 15-1 in the ML I've been reading a lot recently about the quality and stamina of German breds. Lauro has 2 wins and 3 places in 5 tries at this distance #1 Banrock is also a winner at the distance. Just missed last out and I think the extra distance will help. Only issue is that Joe Bravo is no Kent Desormeaux.
1 Mile (Turf) Firecracker Hdcp. G2 Churchill Downs
CD R10 G2
5:29
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#5 Mr. Sidney
5-2
4-1
#7 Tizdejavu
4-1
6-1
#4 Thorn Song
9-2
7-1
#2 Seaspeak
5-1
8-1
#5 Mr. Sidney is back home on the KY bluegrass coming off a poor effort in the G1 Met HDCP at Belmont. Look for a rebound back on the grass with KD in the irons. Mr. Sidney is 3 for 3 at the distance on grass and a G1 winner. #7 Tizdejavu is the 3 for 3 horse for course and has 4 wins and 1 show in 5 races on the grass. A G2 winner as a 3yo is making only his 2nd start this year.#4 Thornsong will be the horse to catch, but the 9-5 ML fave will have to fend off many contenders for that early lead. So the question becomes how much will he have left for the late runners. Probably not enough is my guess. #2 Seaspeak is a 2 time G3 winner looking to make that next step forward. Broke his maiden at CD and Albarado dominates at CD so certainly worth a look at the ML of 8-1
1 1/4 Mile Suburban Hdcp. G2 Belmont
Bel R10 G2
5:49
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Asiatic Boy
5-2
4-1
#3 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#2 Dry Martini
9-2
7-1
#8 Cool Coal Man
5-1
8-1
Cool Coal Man and the hardest working stakes horse in racing, Finallymadeit, guarantee an honest pace in this race which should perfectly suit the likes of Asiatic Boy who is coming out of a 2nd place finish in the S. Foster Hdcp. After missing that one by a gaining length, a 2nd go in the States with lasix and Alan Garcia, coupled with a favorable pace scenario should make this a victory ride for the Sheik. #3 It's A Bird is in great condition and will be hanging just off the pace setters. Look for him to get the lead at some point in the stretch and then try to hold off the closing Asiatic Boy and the next contender #2 Dry Martini. Dry Martini is a solid G3 runner who will also benefit from honest fractions. He may not be good enough for these, but with a little luck, you never know. #8 Cool Coal Man will need to shake loose of Finallymadeit and slow down the race to have any real chance. I don't think it will happen, but would play it for a big price.
1 1/4 Mile American Oaks G1 Hollywood
Hol R8 G1
Sunday
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#1 Gozzip Girl
5-2
4-1
#11 The Best Day Ever
4-1
6-1
#14 Mrs Kipling
9-2
7-1
#7 Acting Lady
5-1
8-1
14 horses in and 2 more waiting to go, but I could never get pass Gozzip Girl in my figuring. She just looks to good. #11 The Best Day Ever is an improving 3yo filly and could give her a run #14 Mrs Kipling certainly looks good enough to win here, but I don't know about the post position #7 Acting Lady has won a big race here before and has beaten the 3rd choice and must be considered. Other considerations are Well Monied and Magical Affair, but you can't bet 'em all. Or can you?
One last thing. Remember that today is the day we celebrate our Independence from an over bearing and controlling government, not our dependence on an ever growing and liberty infringing cradle to grave (and the faster the better, it seems) nanny state.
So here are this week's selections and analysis. Good luck
1 3/8 Mile (Turf) G1 United Nations Stakes Monmouth
MTH R10 G1
5:20
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Strike A Deal
5-2
4-1
#5 Court Vision
4-1
6-1
#6 Lauro
9-2
7-1
#1 Banrock
5-1
8-1
It almost looks like a rematch of the Monmouth race 3 weeks ago with many of the same players. The difference maker is going to be the distance. Presious Passion barely held off Banrock to win. I don't think Elvis will be able to stretch that horse out another 2 furlongs against this crowd, but I've been wrong before. #2 Strike A Deal has been the distance before and sits near the pace which should help keep him out of trouble and ready to move when the time comes. #5 Court Vision has never gone the distance but is too classy a horse to pass on if the price is right. #6 Lauro could be this week's Mary's Follies. 15-1 in the ML I've been reading a lot recently about the quality and stamina of German breds. Lauro has 2 wins and 3 places in 5 tries at this distance #1 Banrock is also a winner at the distance. Just missed last out and I think the extra distance will help. Only issue is that Joe Bravo is no Kent Desormeaux.
1 Mile (Turf) Firecracker Hdcp. G2 Churchill Downs
CD R10 G2
5:29
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#5 Mr. Sidney
5-2
4-1
#7 Tizdejavu
4-1
6-1
#4 Thorn Song
9-2
7-1
#2 Seaspeak
5-1
8-1
#5 Mr. Sidney is back home on the KY bluegrass coming off a poor effort in the G1 Met HDCP at Belmont. Look for a rebound back on the grass with KD in the irons. Mr. Sidney is 3 for 3 at the distance on grass and a G1 winner. #7 Tizdejavu is the 3 for 3 horse for course and has 4 wins and 1 show in 5 races on the grass. A G2 winner as a 3yo is making only his 2nd start this year.#4 Thornsong will be the horse to catch, but the 9-5 ML fave will have to fend off many contenders for that early lead. So the question becomes how much will he have left for the late runners. Probably not enough is my guess. #2 Seaspeak is a 2 time G3 winner looking to make that next step forward. Broke his maiden at CD and Albarado dominates at CD so certainly worth a look at the ML of 8-1
1 1/4 Mile Suburban Hdcp. G2 Belmont
Bel R10 G2
5:49
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Asiatic Boy
5-2
4-1
#3 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#2 Dry Martini
9-2
7-1
#8 Cool Coal Man
5-1
8-1
Cool Coal Man and the hardest working stakes horse in racing, Finallymadeit, guarantee an honest pace in this race which should perfectly suit the likes of Asiatic Boy who is coming out of a 2nd place finish in the S. Foster Hdcp. After missing that one by a gaining length, a 2nd go in the States with lasix and Alan Garcia, coupled with a favorable pace scenario should make this a victory ride for the Sheik. #3 It's A Bird is in great condition and will be hanging just off the pace setters. Look for him to get the lead at some point in the stretch and then try to hold off the closing Asiatic Boy and the next contender #2 Dry Martini. Dry Martini is a solid G3 runner who will also benefit from honest fractions. He may not be good enough for these, but with a little luck, you never know. #8 Cool Coal Man will need to shake loose of Finallymadeit and slow down the race to have any real chance. I don't think it will happen, but would play it for a big price.
1 1/4 Mile American Oaks G1 Hollywood
Hol R8 G1
Sunday
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#1 Gozzip Girl
5-2
4-1
#11 The Best Day Ever
4-1
6-1
#14 Mrs Kipling
9-2
7-1
#7 Acting Lady
5-1
8-1
14 horses in and 2 more waiting to go, but I could never get pass Gozzip Girl in my figuring. She just looks to good. #11 The Best Day Ever is an improving 3yo filly and could give her a run #14 Mrs Kipling certainly looks good enough to win here, but I don't know about the post position #7 Acting Lady has won a big race here before and has beaten the 3rd choice and must be considered. Other considerations are Well Monied and Magical Affair, but you can't bet 'em all. Or can you?
One last thing. Remember that today is the day we celebrate our Independence from an over bearing and controlling government, not our dependence on an ever growing and liberty infringing cradle to grave (and the faster the better, it seems) nanny state.
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Public Handicapper and HANA selections for June 27
I'm back. And I have some interesting races to talk about today. If my odds line looks peculiar to you, read the previous article as I am trying something novel and different. If it works out, then maybe I too, your humble Chalk Eating Weasel, can join the pantheon of great handicapping authors.
Now for the races.
Colonial Da Hoss Stakes 50k Inner Turf for 3up
Colonial R9
4:39
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Auction Watch
4-1
6-1
#5 Jungle Fighter
7-2
5-1
#7 Baltimore Bob
7-2
5-1
#10 Frisky Thunder
6-1
9-1
#2 Auction Watch comes off a 3 digit (Brisnet) Opt Claiming win is 2 for 2 at the distance and 5 for 9 on the sod. Running style is suited for the course and Sheldon Russell is familiar with grounds so look for a good trip. #5 Jungle Fighter is 2 for 2 over CNL turf. This horse for the course is coming 2nd off layoff and should be a factor if he can regain his previous form. #7 Baltimore Bob may be the best of the group, but when the going gets tough, he always seems to come up short. #10 Frisky Thunder should be able to set the early pace and if he is allowed to relax may go all the way. The only other Quirin "E" horse is just not as fast. FT could steal the race for a price.
Monmouth Boiling Springs Stakes G3 150k Turf 3yo fillies
Monmouth R9
4:50
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#5 Bluegrass Princess
4-1
6-1
#3 My Magic Moment
7-2
5-1
#2 Platinum Girl
7-2
5-1
#1 Mary's Follies
6-1
9-1
#5 BP finally finds a graded event without Gozzip Girl to run in. The McLaughlin trainee has been ITM last 4 out and should find the winner's circle with Eddie Castro this time. #3 MMM is a stakes winner and may be ready to deny BP that first win on the Turf. Thomas Albertrani is 25% winner with +ROI in Graded events and Elvis Trujillo is no stranger to the winner's circle in big races. #2 PG wired the field in May, but has never won at this distance in 3 tries. Will have to contend again with pressure from Sandi's Ready. Should point out that PG beat MMM last out. #1 Has nothing really going for her except that she looks to be the type of improving 3yo that one should be on the look out for in these types of races.
The HANA Race of the week
Arlington 5f turf Clm 35k for 3 up
#8 Maneke
4-1
6-1
#1 Mitigation
7-2
5-1
#6 Boots Are Walking
7-2
5-1
#11 The Nth Degree
6-1
9-1
#8 Won at this level and distance 2 back on the main track and is a proven commodity on Turf and the distance. Drops back after a good effort in an Optional Claiming event. #1 Mitigation drops 1 level after finishing 3/4 lengths behind next out winner. Has the ability to win here. #6 BAW is the horse for course with 3 wins in 7 tries. He could catch the top choice with a little luck. #11 could be the longshot special of the day. 12/1 in the ML the 8yo gelding gets some much needed class relief after running against much better and a nice rider upgrade with E. T. Baird.
Canterbury Minnesota H.B.P.A Mile (Turf) fillies and mares 3 up
Canterbury R8
6:03
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#10 Si Si Mon Amie
4-1
6-1
#6 Mizzcan'tbewrong
7-2
5-1
#1 Quiet Queen
7-2
5-1
#5 Lindsey's Wish
6-1
9-1
#10 Si Si Mon Amie easily looks to be the one to beat here; however I doubt there will be anything approaching the 4/1 ML here. #6 Mizzcan'tbewrong along with Fabulous Babe should be setting the early fraction, but that running style doesn't seem to work well here. #1 Quiet Queen looks to be on the improve lately and has won at this level before could get there if the trend continues. #5 Lindsey's Wish comes out of a 3rd place finish at PRM against similar. Kelly Von Hemel is 24% +ROI going Dirt to Turf.
Prarie Meadows Cornhusker G2 9 furlongs 3 up (doubt I'll be awake for this one)
Prarie Meadows R9
11:17
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 My Pal Charlie
4-1
6-1
#5 Shadowbdancing
7-2
5-1
#6 Wayzata Bay
7-2
5-1
#8 Jonesboro
6-1
9-1
#2 MPC along with Jonesboro, appears to be the class of the field, but the latter has never won at this distance so I'm giving the nod to MPC. #5 Shadowbdancing: going with some local talent for shots at the prize. #5 has had 3 digit Bris Figures last two out while going wire to wire. 3 for 4 at PRM and all 3 are stakes wins, looking to step up here. #6 WB was last years Cornhusker winner and hopes history will repeat after using the Jim Rasmussen Mem. H. as a tune up for the big race. #8 Jonesboro (class of '74 if your interested) is always in the thick of it and I expect nothing less here. But if you look at the 9f races, he always seems to hit the wall at this distance.
That's it for this week. As I said, please check out the previous article. I think a lot of readers may have missed it because the TBA Feed seemed to be hung up for a couple of days. I think you'll find it thought provoking, if nothing else.
Now for the races.
Colonial Da Hoss Stakes 50k Inner Turf for 3up
Colonial R9
4:39
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Auction Watch
4-1
6-1
#5 Jungle Fighter
7-2
5-1
#7 Baltimore Bob
7-2
5-1
#10 Frisky Thunder
6-1
9-1
#2 Auction Watch comes off a 3 digit (Brisnet) Opt Claiming win is 2 for 2 at the distance and 5 for 9 on the sod. Running style is suited for the course and Sheldon Russell is familiar with grounds so look for a good trip. #5 Jungle Fighter is 2 for 2 over CNL turf. This horse for the course is coming 2nd off layoff and should be a factor if he can regain his previous form. #7 Baltimore Bob may be the best of the group, but when the going gets tough, he always seems to come up short. #10 Frisky Thunder should be able to set the early pace and if he is allowed to relax may go all the way. The only other Quirin "E" horse is just not as fast. FT could steal the race for a price.
Monmouth Boiling Springs Stakes G3 150k Turf 3yo fillies
Monmouth R9
4:50
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#5 Bluegrass Princess
4-1
6-1
#3 My Magic Moment
7-2
5-1
#2 Platinum Girl
7-2
5-1
#1 Mary's Follies
6-1
9-1
#5 BP finally finds a graded event without Gozzip Girl to run in. The McLaughlin trainee has been ITM last 4 out and should find the winner's circle with Eddie Castro this time. #3 MMM is a stakes winner and may be ready to deny BP that first win on the Turf. Thomas Albertrani is 25% winner with +ROI in Graded events and Elvis Trujillo is no stranger to the winner's circle in big races. #2 PG wired the field in May, but has never won at this distance in 3 tries. Will have to contend again with pressure from Sandi's Ready. Should point out that PG beat MMM last out. #1 Has nothing really going for her except that she looks to be the type of improving 3yo that one should be on the look out for in these types of races.
The HANA Race of the week
Arlington 5f turf Clm 35k for 3 up
#8 Maneke
4-1
6-1
#1 Mitigation
7-2
5-1
#6 Boots Are Walking
7-2
5-1
#11 The Nth Degree
6-1
9-1
#8 Won at this level and distance 2 back on the main track and is a proven commodity on Turf and the distance. Drops back after a good effort in an Optional Claiming event. #1 Mitigation drops 1 level after finishing 3/4 lengths behind next out winner. Has the ability to win here. #6 BAW is the horse for course with 3 wins in 7 tries. He could catch the top choice with a little luck. #11 could be the longshot special of the day. 12/1 in the ML the 8yo gelding gets some much needed class relief after running against much better and a nice rider upgrade with E. T. Baird.
Canterbury Minnesota H.B.P.A Mile (Turf) fillies and mares 3 up
Canterbury R8
6:03
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#10 Si Si Mon Amie
4-1
6-1
#6 Mizzcan'tbewrong
7-2
5-1
#1 Quiet Queen
7-2
5-1
#5 Lindsey's Wish
6-1
9-1
#10 Si Si Mon Amie easily looks to be the one to beat here; however I doubt there will be anything approaching the 4/1 ML here. #6 Mizzcan'tbewrong along with Fabulous Babe should be setting the early fraction, but that running style doesn't seem to work well here. #1 Quiet Queen looks to be on the improve lately and has won at this level before could get there if the trend continues. #5 Lindsey's Wish comes out of a 3rd place finish at PRM against similar. Kelly Von Hemel is 24% +ROI going Dirt to Turf.
Prarie Meadows Cornhusker G2 9 furlongs 3 up (doubt I'll be awake for this one)
Prarie Meadows R9
11:17
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 My Pal Charlie
4-1
6-1
#5 Shadowbdancing
7-2
5-1
#6 Wayzata Bay
7-2
5-1
#8 Jonesboro
6-1
9-1
#2 MPC along with Jonesboro, appears to be the class of the field, but the latter has never won at this distance so I'm giving the nod to MPC. #5 Shadowbdancing: going with some local talent for shots at the prize. #5 has had 3 digit Bris Figures last two out while going wire to wire. 3 for 4 at PRM and all 3 are stakes wins, looking to step up here. #6 WB was last years Cornhusker winner and hopes history will repeat after using the Jim Rasmussen Mem. H. as a tune up for the big race. #8 Jonesboro (class of '74 if your interested) is always in the thick of it and I expect nothing less here. But if you look at the 9f races, he always seems to hit the wall at this distance.
That's it for this week. As I said, please check out the previous article. I think a lot of readers may have missed it because the TBA Feed seemed to be hung up for a couple of days. I think you'll find it thought provoking, if nothing else.
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