Showing posts with label Monmouth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Monmouth. Show all posts

Sunday, August 2, 2009

Scratches in the Lady Secret

If you've been paying attention, you have already noted that there have been some scratches in the Lady Secret. No doubt the sloppy going has something to do with this. Among the scratches is my top selection Spritely. No worries, a check the PP's of the remaining contenders shows that they have all shown an ability to handle the off going. Just slide everyone up one slot in the contender list.

An addition to the contender list is the #5 Devil House who now becomes the lone E8 horse in the race with the scratch of Spritely. I don't really know about Monmouth, but many times a sealed sloppy track at Calder gets very fast and if DH can get loose they may not catch her today.

Wow that was a big crowd getting their picture taken in the winner's circle for race 9!

One last word. While all the contenders have shown ability in off going, the 2 horse Annabil is 3 wins in 7 tries with 6 finishes in the money in the off going. Also, in race 9, the 5 horse who won didn't immediately get the lead as the 9 horse shot out of the gate and crossed the entire field to get to the rail, but he/she was 2nd down the back stretch, took over and never looked back.

This post has been powered by a frosty mint julep

Good luck

From the Spa To The Shore

Back from the simulcast room at Gulfstream where I spent the day pondering the puzzles of Saratoga. Forever Together was no puzzle in frustrating Rutherienne once again. Warrior's Reward did run better this time, as expected, but not well enough to beat Kensei in the Jim Dandy. Good day for Steve Asmussen winning the W. Va Derby then turning around for the Jim Dandy to complete the exacta. Just missed with Strawberry Tart. Since I haven't actually seen the race, I don't really know what happened to the other contenders.

Always a glutton for punishment, I have one more selection as the Public Handicapper contest spans the weekend moving down to the Jersey shore for a Haskell preliminary race the 100k Lady's Secret Stakes for fillies and mares 3 and up.

An interesting race as it seems all the best horses are starting from the difficult outside post positions. What's a poor handicapper to do? Well you can either hold your nose and pick them anyways, go inside and hope for an upset, or try a little of both.

At least the top choice is not a compromise as the Weasel likes the #6 Spritely trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by J. R. Velazquez. While Spritely sports an E8 Quirin Figure and likes to be on or near the lead, she has shown she is not a "need to lead" type which is going to serve her well with the speedy Devil House to her inside.

The 2nd choice is in the statiscally challenged outside #8 post. Jasmine Gardens has been showing good form for trainer Albertrani. She has won twice over the grounds in two tries and has shown a liking for the distance. Former Calder apprentice (no more) Paco Lopez gets the call.

The 3rd selection, #7 Ask The Moon is coming out of a nice stakes win over the course and should be on or near the lead early. Joe Bravo certainly knows his way around the track so I have to give her a chance here.

Finally, if you're shopping for a price, take a look at # 2 Annabill. This 6 yo mare is no stranger to the winner's circle having made it a respectable 18 in 45 tries. She has won a stakes event this year and showed good improvement in her 2nd race over the Monmouth oval. If you want to try your luck with this crafty veteran you're going to have to project further improvement and demand a price. What you do get for your leap of faith is a 25% winner in Elvis Trujillo and Steve DiMauro who wins Non Graded stakes at a 22% clip with a positive ROI.

I'll try to be in on the action in this race provided I'm not at our own shore watching the dog frolic in the surf.

Good Luck until next time

The 3rd choice

Saturday, June 13, 2009

Summit of Speed Preview

Back again after taking a licking on Belmont Day. I've tried to update the spreadsheet that shows my progress, but it is not functioning for me at the moment. I'll go back later. Long story short, I wagered on 4 of the 6 races passing the True North and the Acorn Stakes. Summer Bird was the near miss of the day. If only Charitable Man would have dropped one more tick to 4-1 than I would've had the win and exacta! Did manage the superfecta box. Too bad I didn't play it.

Ok, today's another day. Calder Race Course has 5 stakes races scheduled for its Summit of Speed preview. The HANA race of the week is the 200k Monmouth Stakes for 3 and up and was a fun race to handicap. Let's hope its a fun race to cash in on.

The HANA race is also one of the Public Handicapper races as well. 2 of those races are at Churchill, the Stephen Foster with Einstein running and the Regret Stakes. Finally, its the nightcap, for us East Coasters at Hollywood Park with the Grade 2 Californian Stakes for 3 and up.

So without further ado.

Race 3 at CRC: Blazing Sword Stakes, 55k on Turf for 3 and up.


CRC Race 3
1:44
#1 Mambo Meister
3-2
5-2
#10 Vanquisher
7-2
5-1
#4 Motovato
9-2
7-1



#1 Winner last out appears to be the best here #10 Non Graded stakes winnner is 50% ITM on Turf #4 Turf debut for Motovato has B rated Turf sire and is in good form. Include no.'s 6, 8, 9 for trifecta

Race 8 at Calder. The Unbridled Stakes 100k, 6f for 3 year olds. This race is a 4 horse affair not likely to offer value, but maybe a good free space for the pick 4.

CRC Race 8
4:16

#2 You Luckie Mann
1-1
3-2
#4 Prince Joshua
5-1
8-1
#3 Bidham
6-1
9-1



#2 Wolfson HFC and obvious top choice. #4 Prince Joshua turnsback in distance and could possibly be a good separator in the P4 as everyone will likely single the 2. #3 improving 3yo finished just behind 2nd choice last out

Race 9 at CRC is the 100k Leave Me Alone Stakes for 3yo fillies.


CRC Race 9
4:42
#7 Mine All Mine
7-5
2-1
#3 First Passage
7-2
5-1
#1Donttellmewhattodo
9-2
7-1



#7 finished 2nd to the 3 last out. 2nd off layoff should move forward off that race for 50% trainer Wesley Ward. Ward/Lopez was deadly combo last year. #3 stumbled at the start and won anyway would not be a shocker #1 Doug O'Neill shipper gets good post and looks to be getting better each race.

To keep the races in chronological order, we'll move up the coast to Monmouth for the 200k Monmouth Stakes, Turf for 3 and up. Note Richard's Kid is already a scratch.


MTH Race 9
4:50

#5 Strike A Deal
5-2
4-1
#1 Proudinsky
3-1
9-2
#7 Presious Passion
6-1
9-1
#6 Buddy's Home
6-1
9-1
Grand Couturier, 1st since Breeder's Cup is play against. Most likely tuning up for something bigger down the road #5 may want a little more distance, but has been running great lately. #1 ran into A class horses last out gets a little easier field here #7 Proven G2 horse and Elvis is a leading rider at MTH #6 2 for 3 on course won G3 2 back at GP

Then right back to CRC for Race 10 the 75k U Can do It Hdcp for Fillies and Mares 3 and up


CRC Race 10
5:08

#1 Marina Ballerina
6-5
9-5
#3 Jessica Is Back
4-1
6-1
#4 Orinoquia
5-1
8-1



#1 Won Coolair last out despite a very troubled trip. Looks clearly the best here and a P4 single. #3 Wolfson entry with go to rider Jermaine Bridgmohan aboard could be a threat #4 3rd off the layoff finished just a neck behind 2nd choice could turn the tables.

Race 10 Churchill G1 Stephen Foster Hdcp.


CD Race 10
5:29

#3 Einstein
3-1
9-2
#6 Bullsbay
7-2
5-1
#5 Researcher
9-2
7-1
#7 Asiatic Boy
6-1
9-1
#3 how can you pick against Einstein. A horse for any course considered better on grass but can hold his own with the best on dirt. #6 In great current form is 3 for 3 on the track and will have plenty of pace to run at. #5 I watched his last race at Charlestown and it was easier that it looked on paper. If the CT track record holder can transfer his form to CD, he'll be a force to be reckoned with. #7 is the wild card in this race not looking good enough to love and too good looking to ignore. Gets first lasix and I like the McLaughlin/Garcia combo

Rushing back to Calder for race 11 the 75k Ponche Hdcp for 3 and up.


CRC Race 11
5:34

#5 Yesbyjimminy
2-1
3-1
#2 Americanrevolution
5-2
4-1
#7 How's Your Halo
4-1
6-1



#5 has the proven ability to win this level race over the course, but the 6 yo gelding, #2, is 4 for 4 over the track and should be a threat. #7 is another Calder veteran who gets points for consistency. If the top two falter 7 will pick it up.

Race 11 The G3 Regret Stakes for 3yo Fillies. Note Excelente and Kiss Mine are scratched.


CD Race 11
5:58

#6 Oculuna
3-1
7-2
#10 Prytania
7-2
5-1
#5 Banker's Choice
4-1
6-1
#9 Keertana
6-1
9-1
#6 should set the pace in a paceless race and could run away if allowed to set easy early fractions. #10 will need some pace to run out. #5 Finished 3rd last out against better #9 Winner Alwn1x last out passed 4 horses down stretch

Finally out to the left coast for the Hollywood night cap the Grade 2 Californian Stakes for 3 and up


HOL Race 9
8:08


#2 Mast Track
3-1
9-2
#6 Song of Navaronne
7-2
5-1
#3 Rail Trip
9-2
7-1
#8 Ball Four
5-1
8-1
#2 Comes back to site of G1 win after a 2 month freshening. #6 Close on the 2's heels is #6 who finished a half length behind Its a Bird and Jonesboro at Lonestar. Main question is the surface. Pedigree is nothing special for AW surfaces. #3 Been watching this one all year. Speed to spare but the 8 horse is cut from the same cloth so it will be interesting to see if these two get suicidal on the front end or not.

My apologies for the less than detailed notes. As you can tell by my lack of posting and the time of this post, its been a hectic week.

Good Luck and enjoy the races.

Saturday, May 9, 2009

New Contest

Well, it's a new Public Handicappers contest and I have recovered from the shock of the stunning derby upset and am ready to offer up some new wisdom for this week's Public Handicapper races. I will also give you my thoughts on the HANA Get In The Pool race (Race 6 @ Prarie Meadows) if I get a chance later.

You will notice my last post got a comment from my wise-ass son who couldn't resist the opportunity to point out the Weasel's recent cold streak. Anyone who plays this game long enough knows how it goes, and I'll keep on plugging away. Now to the races

Philadelphia, Race 8: Lyman H 75k for Pa. Breds 3 and up.


#9 Wincat
3-1
9-2
#7 Movin Out
7-2
5-1
#5 Whistle Pig
9-2
7-1
#2 Secretintelligence
5-1
8-1
In many ways a rerun of Novembers 75k Yankeefair for statebreds with 5 of 9 contenders having run in that race. Going outside that race for the top two contenders. #9 Wincat, 3rd place finisher in the G2 2008 Swale Stakes at GP, is a surprising 12-1 in the ML. Last race was on an off track, if we can excuse that performance, Wincat's previous two indicate Wincat may be sitting on a big race. #7 Movin Out has no stakes experience but has done nothing but get better as a 4 year old. If Movin Out can just run back to his last race, it will be good enough. #5 Whistle Pig seems to run the same race time after time. He's not going to surprise anyone with a monster effort, but he is good enough to win this race. #2 Secretintelligence is the speed of the speed in this race with an E8 Quirin fig. No wins at the distance suggests 7 furlongs may be about 1 furlong too much, but could steal the race if not pressed too hard. Keep in mind for those exactas and trifectas.

Next we go north of the border to Woodbine Race Course New Providence Stakes 125K for registered Ontario Breds 3 and up
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The above is editorial comment made by Max the Jack Russell puppy when I had to answer the door to let the exterminator in.


#6 Stuck In Traffic
2-1
3-1
#3 Drunken Love
5-2
4-1
#2 Legal Move
4-1
6-1



Wasn't thrilled with what appears to be a mediocre field #6 Stuck in Traffic doesn't get much respect with an 8-1 ML; however, he's a veteran and winner of this type of race as a 3yo and there isn't really anyone else here that stands out. Stuck in Traffic is a winner 2 of 3 at the distance and 4 of 11 at WO #3 Drunken Love is not as accomplished as the top choice but has consistent Brisnet figs in the mid to upper 90's, is 4 for 8 at the distance and 5 for 14 at WO and would not be a surprise #2 Legal Move is kind of a throw in because I feel obligated to offer at least 3 choices. Legal Move likes the distance, 7 of 13, and is nearly 50 %, 9 of 20 on Woodbine's surface.

Now to the Belmont at Elmont and the Peter Pan Stakes G2 For 3yo's


#6 Imperial Council
2-1
3-1
#2 Hello Broadway
5-2
4-1
#3 Charitable Man
4-1
6-1



#6 Imperial Council won't have to worry about I Want Revenge any longer. At first I was leaning to the 2nd choice, but I reconsidered and decided to go with the home team, Edgar Prado in this race #2 Hello Broadway, winner last out at Keeneland returns to New York and brings Garrett Gomez with him. Hello Broadway always seems to be well regarded at the windows. #3 Charitable Man, winner of the G2 Futurity at this track comes 2nd off layoff for Kiaran McLaughlin and Alan Garcia. I think we'll see a much improved effort this time out

And finally down to Joisey for the 70k Decathalon Stakes for 3yo's and up


#4 Unwritten


#1 He's So Chic


#5 Acting Zippy

Very contetious race in which any of the three choice could win. #4 Unwritten is the speed to catch with an E7 Quirin fig. #1 He's So Chic comes home to a track and a distance that has been very good for him and #5 Acting Zippy ships in from Delaware where he demolished the contenders in a similar type race while setting a personal best Brisnet figure. Look for him to stalk the pace and try to take over if he has enough left. I can't really separate the 3 but would play whoever has the longest odds.

I don't know if I'm going to get to play any of these today or not. It depends on what I'm doing. This morning I'm driving down to Coral Gables as the school year is almost over and I have to move my wise-ass son out of his dorm room. I should make him walk back. I'll put in the Prarie Meadows race as soon as I can. Since that race is much later tonight, I probably will get a chance to participate. Maybe we can get this cold streak turned around.

And now for HANA's Get In The Pool Race #6 From Prairie Meadows

#2 T. C.'s Sweetie
3-1
9-2
#1 Courtney J
7-2
5-1
#3 Ekberg
9-2
7-1
#8 Shhh Hush Hush
5-1
8-1
#2 T. C.'s Sweetie comes home from Hawthorne where she's been facing better. Projected pace scenario sets race up for closing type. #1 Courtney J finished 2nd last out after swinging 6 wide, should be around at the end with a better trip. #3 Beat better at this track as a 3yo, but will have to contend with the other speed in the race #8 Shhh Hush Hush who has had good success at PRM. If either of these gets loose it could be over.