4th of July Star Spangled PH and HANA picks

All right then! Back for another week of making a public fool of myself. Last week wasn't too bad. Can't say I didn't warn you about Mary's Follies in the Boiling Springs at Monmouth. Too bad the price didn't justify the risk there. Had a straight chalky winner in Minnesota when the race was moved off the turf and Si Si Mon Amie scratched making Mizzcan'tbewrong the odds on favorite. Got beat in the other two races by longshots that really just didn't figure. Maneke just got nipped at the wire and the Colonial Downs race was won by horse ridden by Rosemary Homeister, Jr. Rosie used to ride a lot down here at Calder. She is a competent journeyman jockey, but she never gets the really good horses in the big races. However, every once in a while she'll pull one off for you. You just have to wait a long time for those every once in a whiles.

So here are this week's selections and analysis. Good luck

1 3/8 Mile (Turf) G1 United Nations Stakes Monmouth


MTH R10 G1
5:20
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Strike A Deal
5-2
4-1
#5 Court Vision
4-1
6-1
#6 Lauro
9-2
7-1
#1 Banrock
5-1
8-1
It almost looks like a rematch of the Monmouth race 3 weeks ago with many of the same players. The difference maker is going to be the distance. Presious Passion barely held off Banrock to win. I don't think Elvis will be able to stretch that horse out another 2 furlongs against this crowd, but I've been wrong before. #2 Strike A Deal has been the distance before and sits near the pace which should help keep him out of trouble and ready to move when the time comes. #5 Court Vision has never gone the distance but is too classy a horse to pass on if the price is right. #6 Lauro could be this week's Mary's Follies. 15-1 in the ML I've been reading a lot recently about the quality and stamina of German breds. Lauro has 2 wins and 3 places in 5 tries at this distance #1 Banrock is also a winner at the distance. Just missed last out and I think the extra distance will help. Only issue is that Joe Bravo is no Kent Desormeaux.

1 Mile (Turf) Firecracker Hdcp. G2 Churchill Downs


CD R10 G2
5:29
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#5 Mr. Sidney
5-2
4-1
#7 Tizdejavu
4-1
6-1
#4 Thorn Song
9-2
7-1
#2 Seaspeak
5-1
8-1
#5 Mr. Sidney is back home on the KY bluegrass coming off a poor effort in the G1 Met HDCP at Belmont. Look for a rebound back on the grass with KD in the irons. Mr. Sidney is 3 for 3 at the distance on grass and a G1 winner. #7 Tizdejavu is the 3 for 3 horse for course and has 4 wins and 1 show in 5 races on the grass. A G2 winner as a 3yo is making only his 2nd start this year.#4 Thornsong will be the horse to catch, but the 9-5 ML fave will have to fend off many contenders for that early lead. So the question becomes how much will he have left for the late runners. Probably not enough is my guess. #2 Seaspeak is a 2 time G3 winner looking to make that next step forward. Broke his maiden at CD and Albarado dominates at CD so certainly worth a look at the ML of 8-1

1 1/4 Mile Suburban Hdcp. G2 Belmont


Bel R10 G2
5:49
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Asiatic Boy
5-2
4-1
#3 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#2 Dry Martini
9-2
7-1
#8 Cool Coal Man
5-1
8-1
Cool Coal Man and the hardest working stakes horse in racing, Finallymadeit, guarantee an honest pace in this race which should perfectly suit the likes of Asiatic Boy who is coming out of a 2nd place finish in the S. Foster Hdcp. After missing that one by a gaining length, a 2nd go in the States with lasix and Alan Garcia, coupled with a favorable pace scenario should make this a victory ride for the Sheik. #3 It's A Bird is in great condition and will be hanging just off the pace setters. Look for him to get the lead at some point in the stretch and then try to hold off the closing Asiatic Boy and the next contender #2 Dry Martini. Dry Martini is a solid G3 runner who will also benefit from honest fractions. He may not be good enough for these, but with a little luck, you never know. #8 Cool Coal Man will need to shake loose of Finallymadeit and slow down the race to have any real chance. I don't think it will happen, but would play it for a big price.

1 1/4 Mile American Oaks G1 Hollywood


Hol R8 G1
Sunday
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#1 Gozzip Girl
5-2
4-1
#11 The Best Day Ever
4-1
6-1
#14 Mrs Kipling
9-2
7-1
#7 Acting Lady
5-1
8-1
14 horses in and 2 more waiting to go, but I could never get pass Gozzip Girl in my figuring. She just looks to good. #11 The Best Day Ever is an improving 3yo filly and could give her a run #14 Mrs Kipling certainly looks good enough to win here, but I don't know about the post position #7 Acting Lady has won a big race here before and has beaten the 3rd choice and must be considered. Other considerations are Well Monied and Magical Affair, but you can't bet 'em all. Or can you?

One last thing. Remember that today is the day we celebrate our Independence from an over bearing and controlling government, not our dependence on an ever growing and liberty infringing cradle to grave (and the faster the better, it seems) nanny state.