All right then! Back for another week of making a public fool of myself. Last week wasn't too bad. Can't say I didn't warn you about Mary's Follies in the Boiling Springs at Monmouth. Too bad the price didn't justify the risk there. Had a straight chalky winner in Minnesota when the race was moved off the turf and Si Si Mon Amie scratched making Mizzcan'tbewrong the odds on favorite. Got beat in the other two races by longshots that really just didn't figure. Maneke just got nipped at the wire and the Colonial Downs race was won by horse ridden by Rosemary Homeister, Jr. Rosie used to ride a lot down here at Calder. She is a competent journeyman jockey, but she never gets the really good horses in the big races. However, every once in a while she'll pull one off for you. You just have to wait a long time for those every once in a whiles.
So here are this week's selections and analysis. Good luck
1 3/8 Mile (Turf) G1 United Nations Stakes Monmouth
MTH R10 G1
5:20
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Strike A Deal
5-2
4-1
#5 Court Vision
4-1
6-1
#6 Lauro
9-2
7-1
#1 Banrock
5-1
8-1
It almost looks like a rematch of the Monmouth race 3 weeks ago with many of the same players. The difference maker is going to be the distance. Presious Passion barely held off Banrock to win. I don't think Elvis will be able to stretch that horse out another 2 furlongs against this crowd, but I've been wrong before. #2 Strike A Deal has been the distance before and sits near the pace which should help keep him out of trouble and ready to move when the time comes. #5 Court Vision has never gone the distance but is too classy a horse to pass on if the price is right. #6 Lauro could be this week's Mary's Follies. 15-1 in the ML I've been reading a lot recently about the quality and stamina of German breds. Lauro has 2 wins and 3 places in 5 tries at this distance #1 Banrock is also a winner at the distance. Just missed last out and I think the extra distance will help. Only issue is that Joe Bravo is no Kent Desormeaux.
1 Mile (Turf) Firecracker Hdcp. G2 Churchill Downs
CD R10 G2
5:29
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#5 Mr. Sidney
5-2
4-1
#7 Tizdejavu
4-1
6-1
#4 Thorn Song
9-2
7-1
#2 Seaspeak
5-1
8-1
#5 Mr. Sidney is back home on the KY bluegrass coming off a poor effort in the G1 Met HDCP at Belmont. Look for a rebound back on the grass with KD in the irons. Mr. Sidney is 3 for 3 at the distance on grass and a G1 winner. #7 Tizdejavu is the 3 for 3 horse for course and has 4 wins and 1 show in 5 races on the grass. A G2 winner as a 3yo is making only his 2nd start this year.#4 Thornsong will be the horse to catch, but the 9-5 ML fave will have to fend off many contenders for that early lead. So the question becomes how much will he have left for the late runners. Probably not enough is my guess. #2 Seaspeak is a 2 time G3 winner looking to make that next step forward. Broke his maiden at CD and Albarado dominates at CD so certainly worth a look at the ML of 8-1
1 1/4 Mile Suburban Hdcp. G2 Belmont
Bel R10 G2
5:49
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Asiatic Boy
5-2
4-1
#3 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#2 Dry Martini
9-2
7-1
#8 Cool Coal Man
5-1
8-1
Cool Coal Man and the hardest working stakes horse in racing, Finallymadeit, guarantee an honest pace in this race which should perfectly suit the likes of Asiatic Boy who is coming out of a 2nd place finish in the S. Foster Hdcp. After missing that one by a gaining length, a 2nd go in the States with lasix and Alan Garcia, coupled with a favorable pace scenario should make this a victory ride for the Sheik. #3 It's A Bird is in great condition and will be hanging just off the pace setters. Look for him to get the lead at some point in the stretch and then try to hold off the closing Asiatic Boy and the next contender #2 Dry Martini. Dry Martini is a solid G3 runner who will also benefit from honest fractions. He may not be good enough for these, but with a little luck, you never know. #8 Cool Coal Man will need to shake loose of Finallymadeit and slow down the race to have any real chance. I don't think it will happen, but would play it for a big price.
1 1/4 Mile American Oaks G1 Hollywood
Hol R8 G1
Sunday
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#1 Gozzip Girl
5-2
4-1
#11 The Best Day Ever
4-1
6-1
#14 Mrs Kipling
9-2
7-1
#7 Acting Lady
5-1
8-1
14 horses in and 2 more waiting to go, but I could never get pass Gozzip Girl in my figuring. She just looks to good. #11 The Best Day Ever is an improving 3yo filly and could give her a run #14 Mrs Kipling certainly looks good enough to win here, but I don't know about the post position #7 Acting Lady has won a big race here before and has beaten the 3rd choice and must be considered. Other considerations are Well Monied and Magical Affair, but you can't bet 'em all. Or can you?
One last thing. Remember that today is the day we celebrate our Independence from an over bearing and controlling government, not our dependence on an ever growing and liberty infringing cradle to grave (and the faster the better, it seems) nanny state.
Showing posts with label Canterbury Park. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Canterbury Park. Show all posts
Saturday, July 4, 2009
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Post Race Analysis for May 23
Back again. Officially, as far as the PH is concerned, I was 0 for 4.
Unofficially, and better for me, Euphony led broke alertly from the gate and led going into the clubhouse turned. Going down the backstretch, Euphony allowed the 90-1 Boudoir to go to the lead. Never trailing the leader by more than a length Euphony took command at the top of the stretch and was easily the best of Indescibable (show) and Kiss With A Twist (place) neither of whom could make up any ground on the winner. Euphony paid 17.80 to win. The $1 exacta, which I also had, paid $49.50. If only I'd played the Trifecta.
6/1 in the morning line, Euphony went off at nearly 8-1. Honestly, I cannot understand how the betting collective allowed Euphony to get off at such a price. Indescribable went of at 4/5 as the deserving favorite. Indescribable, coming off of 2 G3 wins deserved to be the favorite, but not at 4/5. There are two reasons I can think of for Euphony to be so relatively dismissed: 1) No G3 wins and 2) no experience on artificial surfaces.
When I am handicapping Graded Stakes races. The first thing I look for are horses which have shown that they are capable of winning at that level. However, when looking specifically at G3 races, one also has to be aware of 1) horses dropping in from G2 races and 2) up and coming horses that are demonstrating good form. Euphony obviously comes out of that latter group and is really the type you need to be on the lookout for because you won't get 8 to 1 on her next race. In many ways, this reminds me of Wild Promises who came to CRC last year after dominating stakes races at Golden Gate. Wild Promises went off at 5/1 that race and I couldn't believe my good fortune. Good luck getting 5/1 on Wild Promises after that race.
Thus, I come to the other hang up we handicappers have. Euphony's lack of artificial surface form. One item that I have recently been incorporating into my handicapping tool-kit is pedigree. I have previously pretty much paid no attention to pedigree, but have recently been learning of how powerful a tool pedigree can actually be. If one checks Euphony's pedigree, she was sired by Forest Wildcat out of the Smart Strike mare Strike It Up. Accordign to the Sire Stats book put out by Thoroughbred Sports Network, both of sides of Euphony's pedigree are above average (B rated) all-weather surface sires. But in this case, I didn't need to refer to the reference book to know that Euphony would handle the surface fine. As I wrote before, Euphony had won 4 consecutive stakes races on at 4 different tracks, 2 on turf, and 2 on dirt. In addition, Euphony had been training very well at Arlington including 2 bullet workouts over fake dirt. There was no doubt in my mind that Euphony would handle the surface. Some horses care about the surface and some don't. Euphony clearly fits into the latter category.
Ok, so much for my big win of the day, what about all those losses. The Sheepshead Bay at Belmont was a pretty simple race to handicap. Criticism was the horse to beat, and there was a way to beat him. Unfortunately, Kiaran McLaughlin's uncoupled entry raced as an uncoupled entry as both horses, in tandem, dropped to the back of the pack at the start of the race and Criticism was once again allowed to relax on an uncontested lead. The past performances suggested that Colina Verde, ridden by Alan Garcia, might be inclined to apply some pressure to Criticism and make him actually work for his lead. Instead, Garcia instantly applied a choke hold to Colina Verde at the start and Criticism led the field from wire to wire without ever being truly challenged. An outcome which I warned of but didn't wager on.
The Louisville handicap at Churchill Downs just turned out to be one of those races that all handicappers run into. Brass Hat has been winless for the last year and a half. At one time a top grass runner, it seemed as if 8 year old gelding's best competitive years were behind him. The real disappointment in this race was betting choice Always First who never really seriously contended in this race. Spice Route and Thabazimbi pretty much went as expected and just got beat today. I think the clues to Always First less than inspired performance likely lies in the comment lines for his last two races: 1) Lacked closing bid and 2) failed to menace. Perhaps at 8 years of age, Always First is losing interest. Note for next time. Check out the race replay.
Perhaps the most surprising outcome was in the Hanshin Hdcp. While not considered a contender for my selection purposes T=the winner, Vacation, ridden by J. R. Velazquez and trained by Claude "Shug" McGaughey (Gee, I wish I had a great nickname like that) was not a shocker. I thought Stonehouse would regress based upon his recent figure patterns and Cherokee Artist gave it a good effort in finishing 3rd, but Coragil Cat laid a big fat egg out there starting last out of the gate and finishing last at the end. Coming back 2nd off a layoff to a track where he had run well before, this just doesn't figure. But then, racing doesn't always figure. Fortunately for you, this race was a pass. Unfortunately for me, I had to make my play earlier than normal due to unusual circumstances while Coragil Cat was still at playable odds. That'll teach me not to use that conditional option. Looking critically at my own performance, Stonehouse should not have been a contender if I felt he was going to regress to form insufficient to win. I am satisfied with the other selections, if not the outcome. The elimination of Stonehouse as a contender could have made room for a 4th contender or just left it at 3 lowering the needed odds on the remaining 3.
Finally, coming to the HANA race of the week at Canterbury PARK, I had the top two finishers in order despite the race being moved to the main track. OK, really now, does anyone really believe that 10k claimers care about the surface? Especially when most of these weren't particularly the specialist type anyways. My bet was the longshot Elegant Star. I said in my analysis that I thought he was a notch below the others and as it turned out I was correct. But, if you can't take a shot in a race like this, when will you ever take a shot? Elegant Star stayed in contention for about a half and then fell back to bring up the rear, but that's OK. You can't win them all.
There was alot of talk on the HANA discussion group about how this race was a failure for the In The Pool buycott. Also some discussion about how our Canadian cousins were shut out of the action. I hope what has begun as a positive movement to improve the sport we all love doesn't devolve into a pissing contest because everyone can't be pleased all of the time. Sheesh, were horse players, you'd think we'd be used to losing every now and then.
'Til the next time.
Chalk Eating Weasel
Addendum: As reported by Bloodhorse.com, Jockey Rene Douglas has come out of 7 hours of surgery due to injuries incurred in an accident during the Matron Hdcp at Arlington Park yesterday. The incident occured when Born To Be clipped heels with Boudoir after being bumped by Sky Mom. Born To Be threw Douglas and the flipped over and landed on top of the rider. Bloodhorse reports that at this time it is unlikely Douglas will walk again; however that will not be known for certain until the swelling in the spinal area recedes. Bloodhorse also reported that Born To Be has recovered from the incident and has been returned to the barn of trainer Eric Cointreaux.
Pray or hope or make a sacrifice or whatever you do to get a good outcome over something you have no control over for the recovery of Rene Douglas.
Correction: In the post above I said that Brass Hat was, at one time, a top turf horse. The Bloodhorse reports that prior to Saturday's race, Brass Hat had not won in 7 tries over grass hardly qualifying as a top turf horse. All the same, had I been privy to that information, I would've been even less inclined to consider Brass Hat a contender. I remain of the opinion that Brass Hat is a classy horse and congratulate Calvin Borel on another great ride in this remarkable season he is having.
Unofficially, and better for me, Euphony led broke alertly from the gate and led going into the clubhouse turned. Going down the backstretch, Euphony allowed the 90-1 Boudoir to go to the lead. Never trailing the leader by more than a length Euphony took command at the top of the stretch and was easily the best of Indescibable (show) and Kiss With A Twist (place) neither of whom could make up any ground on the winner. Euphony paid 17.80 to win. The $1 exacta, which I also had, paid $49.50. If only I'd played the Trifecta.
6/1 in the morning line, Euphony went off at nearly 8-1. Honestly, I cannot understand how the betting collective allowed Euphony to get off at such a price. Indescribable went of at 4/5 as the deserving favorite. Indescribable, coming off of 2 G3 wins deserved to be the favorite, but not at 4/5. There are two reasons I can think of for Euphony to be so relatively dismissed: 1) No G3 wins and 2) no experience on artificial surfaces.
When I am handicapping Graded Stakes races. The first thing I look for are horses which have shown that they are capable of winning at that level. However, when looking specifically at G3 races, one also has to be aware of 1) horses dropping in from G2 races and 2) up and coming horses that are demonstrating good form. Euphony obviously comes out of that latter group and is really the type you need to be on the lookout for because you won't get 8 to 1 on her next race. In many ways, this reminds me of Wild Promises who came to CRC last year after dominating stakes races at Golden Gate. Wild Promises went off at 5/1 that race and I couldn't believe my good fortune. Good luck getting 5/1 on Wild Promises after that race.
Thus, I come to the other hang up we handicappers have. Euphony's lack of artificial surface form. One item that I have recently been incorporating into my handicapping tool-kit is pedigree. I have previously pretty much paid no attention to pedigree, but have recently been learning of how powerful a tool pedigree can actually be. If one checks Euphony's pedigree, she was sired by Forest Wildcat out of the Smart Strike mare Strike It Up. Accordign to the Sire Stats book put out by Thoroughbred Sports Network, both of sides of Euphony's pedigree are above average (B rated) all-weather surface sires. But in this case, I didn't need to refer to the reference book to know that Euphony would handle the surface fine. As I wrote before, Euphony had won 4 consecutive stakes races on at 4 different tracks, 2 on turf, and 2 on dirt. In addition, Euphony had been training very well at Arlington including 2 bullet workouts over fake dirt. There was no doubt in my mind that Euphony would handle the surface. Some horses care about the surface and some don't. Euphony clearly fits into the latter category.
Ok, so much for my big win of the day, what about all those losses. The Sheepshead Bay at Belmont was a pretty simple race to handicap. Criticism was the horse to beat, and there was a way to beat him. Unfortunately, Kiaran McLaughlin's uncoupled entry raced as an uncoupled entry as both horses, in tandem, dropped to the back of the pack at the start of the race and Criticism was once again allowed to relax on an uncontested lead. The past performances suggested that Colina Verde, ridden by Alan Garcia, might be inclined to apply some pressure to Criticism and make him actually work for his lead. Instead, Garcia instantly applied a choke hold to Colina Verde at the start and Criticism led the field from wire to wire without ever being truly challenged. An outcome which I warned of but didn't wager on.
The Louisville handicap at Churchill Downs just turned out to be one of those races that all handicappers run into. Brass Hat has been winless for the last year and a half. At one time a top grass runner, it seemed as if 8 year old gelding's best competitive years were behind him. The real disappointment in this race was betting choice Always First who never really seriously contended in this race. Spice Route and Thabazimbi pretty much went as expected and just got beat today. I think the clues to Always First less than inspired performance likely lies in the comment lines for his last two races: 1) Lacked closing bid and 2) failed to menace. Perhaps at 8 years of age, Always First is losing interest. Note for next time. Check out the race replay.
Perhaps the most surprising outcome was in the Hanshin Hdcp. While not considered a contender for my selection purposes T=the winner, Vacation, ridden by J. R. Velazquez and trained by Claude "Shug" McGaughey (Gee, I wish I had a great nickname like that) was not a shocker. I thought Stonehouse would regress based upon his recent figure patterns and Cherokee Artist gave it a good effort in finishing 3rd, but Coragil Cat laid a big fat egg out there starting last out of the gate and finishing last at the end. Coming back 2nd off a layoff to a track where he had run well before, this just doesn't figure. But then, racing doesn't always figure. Fortunately for you, this race was a pass. Unfortunately for me, I had to make my play earlier than normal due to unusual circumstances while Coragil Cat was still at playable odds. That'll teach me not to use that conditional option. Looking critically at my own performance, Stonehouse should not have been a contender if I felt he was going to regress to form insufficient to win. I am satisfied with the other selections, if not the outcome. The elimination of Stonehouse as a contender could have made room for a 4th contender or just left it at 3 lowering the needed odds on the remaining 3.
Finally, coming to the HANA race of the week at Canterbury PARK, I had the top two finishers in order despite the race being moved to the main track. OK, really now, does anyone really believe that 10k claimers care about the surface? Especially when most of these weren't particularly the specialist type anyways. My bet was the longshot Elegant Star. I said in my analysis that I thought he was a notch below the others and as it turned out I was correct. But, if you can't take a shot in a race like this, when will you ever take a shot? Elegant Star stayed in contention for about a half and then fell back to bring up the rear, but that's OK. You can't win them all.
There was alot of talk on the HANA discussion group about how this race was a failure for the In The Pool buycott. Also some discussion about how our Canadian cousins were shut out of the action. I hope what has begun as a positive movement to improve the sport we all love doesn't devolve into a pissing contest because everyone can't be pleased all of the time. Sheesh, were horse players, you'd think we'd be used to losing every now and then.
'Til the next time.
Chalk Eating Weasel
Addendum: As reported by Bloodhorse.com, Jockey Rene Douglas has come out of 7 hours of surgery due to injuries incurred in an accident during the Matron Hdcp at Arlington Park yesterday. The incident occured when Born To Be clipped heels with Boudoir after being bumped by Sky Mom. Born To Be threw Douglas and the flipped over and landed on top of the rider. Bloodhorse reports that at this time it is unlikely Douglas will walk again; however that will not be known for certain until the swelling in the spinal area recedes. Bloodhorse also reported that Born To Be has recovered from the incident and has been returned to the barn of trainer Eric Cointreaux.
Pray or hope or make a sacrifice or whatever you do to get a good outcome over something you have no control over for the recovery of Rene Douglas.
Correction: In the post above I said that Brass Hat was, at one time, a top turf horse. The Bloodhorse reports that prior to Saturday's race, Brass Hat had not won in 7 tries over grass hardly qualifying as a top turf horse. All the same, had I been privy to that information, I would've been even less inclined to consider Brass Hat a contender. I remain of the opinion that Brass Hat is a classy horse and congratulate Calvin Borel on another great ride in this remarkable season he is having.
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